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UFC 164 Handicapping | Betting Preview | Free UFC Picks

UFC 164: Henderson vs. Pettis Handicapping

One of the most dominant champions in the UFC today, Ben Henderson returns to the Octagon Saturday night to defend his Lightweight strap against the very dangerous Anthony Pettis. Both men are extremely well rounded making this a fight NOT to be missed.

UFC 164: Henderson vs. Pettis 2
Date: August 31, 2013
Time: 10pm ET/7pm PT
Location: Bradley Center, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Broadcast: Pay-per-view
UFC Odds From Bovada

These two headline a pretty good card littered with top notch contenders and a few hoping to make a name for themselves.

Main Card:

Ben Henderson (19-2-0): -130
Anthony Pettis (16-2-0): +100

Henderson is arguably the most athletic Champions in MMA. He has a terrific wrestling pedigree, possesses a terrific submission game and has the striking to compete with anyone in the division. He also has an incredible jaw and a seamlessly endless gas tank. Pettis is also a beast with amazing cardio and some of the best striking the Lightweight division has ever seen. His kicks are legendary and his jiu-jitsu game is absolutely top tier.

So who wins this huge encounter? Pettis has the advantage if this fight stays standing – his unorthodox style and creativity will likely give Henderson fits while if this fight hits the mat – advantage Henderson. That said I see this fight staying upright with Pettis mixing up his kicks and his punches while keeping Henderson totally off guard. The fight may go to the ground on occasion where Pettis is more-than-adept at minimizing the damage.

This fight is likely headed to the judges’ scorecards and once there they will have no choice but to award the busier, more adept striker the win.

Pick: Anthony Pettis +100 to upset the Champ

Josh Barnett (32-6-0): -180
Frank Mir (16-7-0): +150

Heavyweights do battle in the co-Main Event when Frank Mir, off an impressive submission win against Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera takes on Josh Barnett – a high caliber wrestler with an ability to bang with anyone.

Mir’s striking has certainly come a long way and now is a terrific compliment to one of the best jiu-jitsu games in the Heavyweight division. But Barnett has the stellar wrestling chops and should be able to dictate where this fight ends up. The X-factor may be Mir’s training camp – Greg Jackson is known as one of the best tacticians in the sport and should be able to devise a plan for the dangerous Barnett.

But as we have seen with Frank Mir in the past – you never know which fighter will show up on fight day. I like Barnett to lure Mir into his game and to use his wrestling to keep out of Frank’s danger zones. I, like many, have little faith in Frank Mir!

Pick: Josh Barnett -180

Clay Guida (30-13-0): +325
Chad Mendes (14-1-0): -450

Has anyone seen the formerly exciting Clay Guida? The same guy that beat Anthony Pettis has put in a couple of clunkers as of late resulting in two split decision – one win and one loss. Guida’s opponent Saturday has a very strong wrestling background to minimize what Guida will be hoping to inflict. But the one thing that jumps off the page is the fact that Chad Mendes has three straight resounding knockout wins in a row at Featherweight – all in the first round!

Mendes is absolutely on fire as of late and despite the experience of Guida should have his way in this bout. His only career loss so far was to Jose Aldo – no shame in that! Mendes’s skills should be able to stifle anything Guida hopes to do in the Octagon – his wrestling is better, his speed is actually superior and his striking has gone to another level. [ad-3573245]

Mendes is a man on a mission – it is hard to see Guida continually avoiding Mendes. I suppose the veteran could frustrate Mendes into a mistake but I don’t see it happening. While I don’t love the price, I do like Mendes to have his way with the Carpenter.

Pick: Chad Mendes -450

Ben Rothwell (32-9-0): +100
Brandon Vera (12-6-0): -130

Brandon Vera, winner of just one of his last five fights returns to the Heavyweight ranks to take on an enormous Ben Rothwell Saturday. Rothwell obviously has the size advantage, will have the reach advantage and has a whole lot more experience under his size 48 belt.

Vera’s only chance is to get this fight to the ground – I can’t see him dragging his enormous opponent down! Look for a highlight reel knockout in this one with Brando Vera inevitably asking the question “what just happened?”

Pick: Ben Rothwell +100

Erik Koch (13-2-0): -150
Dustin Poirier (13-3-0): +120

Featherweights looking to rebound off losses do battle in the first bout on the Main Card Saturday night when perennial contender Dustin Poirier does battle with Erik Koch. Both are well rounded fighters but Poirier looks to have the more varied game with almost as many submission wins as KOs. That said the skill sets are very close.

This fight looks to be headed for a decision. In that case, I have to take the better striker and that honor goes to Erik Koch. In a fight that comes down to points, Koch gets it done on his feet.

Pick: Erik Koch -150

FX Card:

Gleison Tibau (27-9-0): +110 vs. Jamie Varner (21-7-1): -140
Pick: Jamie Varner -140

Tim Elliott (9-3-1): -165 vs. Louis Gaudinot (6-2-0): +135
Pick: Tim Elliot -165

Pascal Krauss (11-1-0): -175 vs. Hyun Gyu Lim (11-3-1): +145
Pick: Hyun Gyu Lim +145

Chico Camus (12-4-0): +165 vs. Kyung Ho Kang (11-6-0): -210
Pick: Kyung Ho Kang -210

Facebook Card:

Nikita Krylov (14-0-0): -220 vs. Soa Palelei (18-3-0): +175
Pick: Soa Palelei +175

Ryan Couture (6-2-2): +180 vs. Al Iaquinta (5-2-1): -230
Pick: Ryan Couture +180

Magnus Cedenblad (10-4-0): -110 vs. Jared Hamman (13-5-0): -120
Pick: Magnus Cedenblad -110

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About DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.