Fantasy Football Draft Guide – Surprise Picks
The next installment of our preseason NFL draft guide for fantasy football is the 2009 edition of our top picks for draft day Fantasy Football SLEEPERS at the RB position. It takes a discerning eye to distinguish the unheralded or unused players primed for breakout seasons. They turn fantasy teams into fantasy champions.
Dave’s Early Sleepers — RunningBacks
The running back position is interesting especially when talking about sleepers. Average Draft Positions (ADP), for 1st string RB’s is significantly higher than any other position. Can we call a player drafted in the 3rd or 4th round a sleeper?
Well, if you subscribe to the theory of a sleeper being someone who outperforms their draft position – yes.
If you believe that a sleeper is a player that falls farther into a draft; that as a sleeper he is not so obvious – then no.
I am somewhere in between.
When determining my Sleepers, I looked at depth charts, position battles, team philosophy, Average Draft Position (ADP) and of course the player themselves.
Here we go.
1. Ray Rice – Baltimore – 1. Ray Rice – Baltimore – Seems to be slipping through the cracks in Fantasy land. Rice impressed last year before hurting his ankle and by all accounts, seems to be outshining Willis McGahee in Baltimore. With a Top Tier Defense and an emerging offense, Baltimore is going to get a few more possessions than most teams.
As it stands, Rice figures to at least equally share carries with McGahee and it is my bet that Leron Mclain will be Ray’s bigger threat by mid-year. Confidence from your coaches goes a long way. Talent doesn’t hurt either. With an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 86, most are drafting Rice as their 3rd or even 4th RB. 1200 YDS and double digit TD’s. Is not a stretch – not bad for the 8th round!
2. Felix Jones – Dallas – Felix ends up on the list as a potentially large part of an offense that has fallen out of favor with the FF public. Plagued by a toe injury last year, Felix was still able to display an explosiveness that made him a high Draft choice.
Dallas is going to try to revert back to a run first offense, and although Marion Barber and Tashard Choice will certainly be factors, Jones has impressed in camp and figures to be THAT GUY in Dallas. 1200-1500 YDS. and up to 15 TD’s. Projected is good value at Average Draft Position (ADP) of 75. He will likely be your 3rd RB and could be your RB1 or 2 by mid season.
3. Julius Jones – Seattle. – Julius, like all of his Seattle teammates completely underachieved last year. With the return of a healthy QB, Seattle SHOULD be a better all around team. With the departure of Mo Morris, only TJ Duckett is left to snake a few TD’s from Seattle’s unquestioned #1 (and he will!!!). Although I am not in love with Jones’ ability to torch defenses, I do think that his balanced offense will do enough to give him the chance to surprise all year.
Running behind Walter Jones doesn’t hurt either. Average Draft Position is 117, so grabbing Julius in the 10th round could be a steal. If you find that you are thin at RB late in a draft, grab Jones with the knowledge that you have a solid RB on a solid team and that he is in line for the bulk of the carries in the Pacific Northwest.
4. Ahmad Bradshaw – New York Giants – Deep sleeper? Not really if you consider that Ahmad is in line to garner the bulk of the 100 or so touches that the vacated Derrick Ward had last year. In combination with the 50 or so he got last year. Simple math says that Bradshaw is going to get 10-12 touches every week.
With Brandon Jacob’s history of injury, Bradshaw is primed to step in and be a huge contributor in New York. 12th round could nab you a quality player that is lurking in the weeds, primed to have a breakout year.
2009 Fantasy Draft Guide From CappersPicks.com
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Here’s your guide to the draft day steals. How about it, owners? Email me your thoughts.
