2011 Grey Cup Predictions – Team Preview – Winnipeg Blue Bombers
More so than the 4-14 record, which was the CFL’s worst, the Winnipeg Blue bombers’ ATS record stands out. 10-7-1. They beat the spread in more than half their games despite being the league’s worst team.
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2011 Winnipeg Blue Bombers CFL Team Preview/Predictions
2010 record: 4-14
ATS: 10-7-1
In fact, the Bombers lost nine games by four points or less. That trend reminds me of the 2009 Kansas City Chiefs, who won two games but were very unlucky before exploding to win the AFC West in 2010.
Could Winnipeg enjoy a similar resurgence in 2011? Not so fast. Unfortunately for the Bombers, some key personnel departed in the offseason, so it’s possible that any progress was undone.
If nothing else, Winnipeg should boast a strong running game this season. Fred Reid’s 1,396 yards were tops in the league; he averaged 6.6 yards per carry. He should continue to be the focal point of this offense.
One reason why the Bombers will have to rely on Reid a lot once more: their passing game is a real question mark. Steven Jyles is off to Toronto, meaning the quarterback job truly belongs to Buck Pierce now. Which version of him will show up? Will it be the Buck Pierce who dominated for a two-game stretch last season, averaging 300-plus yards, running for 192 more, tossing five touchdowns and completing 70 per cent of his passes? Or will it be the Pierce who threw three interceptions versus one touchdown pass in his final three appearances?
It looks like Pierce should at least have a pretty interesting receiving corps to throw to. Terrence Edwards had a monster 2010, catching 78 passes for 1,372 yards and 12 touchdowns. Joining him will be a pair of intriguing youngsters: Greg Carr, who is a monster in the red zone at 6’6”, and Terrence Jeffers-Harris. But will Pierce’s body hold up well enough for him to make the most of those targets? He injured his knee early last season and dislocated his elbow late in the year. [ad-4437448]
The Bombers very quietly had the CFL’s No. 1 pass defense and No. 2 overall defense last year, further suggesting that luck wasn’t on their side. But will the “D” still have the same bite? It lost co-ordinator Kavis Reed, who took the head-coaching job in Edmonton. Winnipeg also lost arguably its best defensive player in Philip Hunt. He led the CFL with 16 sacks last season but left to sign with the Philadelphia Eagles, who hope he can have a Cameron Wake-like impact flying south of the border.
Blue Bombers 2011 Outlook
It’s possible that Winnipeg’s defense will take a step back this season with Reed and Hunt gone. Their offense is also a work in progress. It really remains to be seen if Pierce can be “the guy” under center. Those factors make me wonder if the Bombers could actually regress this season.
On the other hand, Winnipeg was so unbelievably unlucky last year that it won’t take much to improve on the four victories. I think five or six Ws are more likely. With a little luck, the Bombers could flirt with a crossover playoff berth, but I don’t see them finishing better than last in the East.
Blue Bombers 2011 Futures
Grey Cup odds: +1500
Eastern Division odds: +1050
Blue Bombers 2011 Predictions
East Division: 4th
Over/Under Season Wins prediction: OVER 5.5 wins
