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March Madness Winning Picks

Can NCAAB Picks Betting Lines Provide Insight for Winning NCAAB Bracket Picks

It’s NCAAB Picks College Tournament time and with it comes numerous Bracket Contests. Everywhere you turn there’s articles and opinions to help you make winning NCAAB Bracket Picks. Most of these center around seed position and how they have faired over the course of time. Although one would like you to believe that seeding position helps in winning these contests the fact of the matter is that it doesn’t.

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Seeding position is more of a marketing gimic than something you can use to win your NCAAB Bracket Picks. So, in the interest of always trying to make money, I decided to keep digging to see what I would use to win these contests. Interestingly it had nothing to do with seeding but everything to do with the pointspread.

The table below shows the straight-up, Won-Loss record of all college basketball underdogs at 19 different point-spread levels over the last nine NCAAB Picks Tournaments:

Line Wins Losses SU Win % 1-1.5 1,169 1,264 48.0% 2-2.5 1,086 1,421 43.3% 3-3.5 910 1,505 37.7% 4-4.5 759 1,347 36.0% 5-5.5 640 1,488 30.1% 6-6.5 542 1,351 28.6% 7-7.5 403 1,320 23.4% Click Here8-8.5 322 1,297 19.9% 9-9.5 239 1,109 17.7% 10-10.5 187 980 16.0% 11-11.5 128 879 12.7% 12-12.5 112 851 11.6% 13-13.5 85 786 9.8% 14-14.5 47 673 6.5% 15-15.5 29 536 5.1% 16-16.5 25 430 5.5% 17-17.5 16 418 3.7% 18-18.5 14 323 4.2% 19+ 16 805 1.9%

A simple analysis of the above tells us that an NCAAB Picks underdog of between 4-4.5 points has actually won their contest outright 36% of the time.

So, the morale of this story is to use the point spread histories to help you determine the frequency of “upsets” picked in NCAAB bracket contests, and look for the best style differences and edges in those pointspread ranges to be your upset pick.

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  1. Too many times I get caught looking at a team’s seed in their bracket as opposed to the team they are actually playing. I agree that seeding is more about popularity and less about potential. That is why upsets are so prevelent in this tournament.