NFL Championship Games: Against The Spread Trends
Hopefully this past weekend all of you followed the divisional match up trends which showed the underdogs the last five years covered 80 percent of the time. Well this year its only 75 percent with the underdogs winning straight up in all three of those games. Now lets look at the recent trends for both of these games to help clue us in on which trend plays we should be looking at this weekend.
Eagles @ Arizona– The NFC contest is a rematch from thanksgiving day when Philly embarrassed Arizona in Philly. The odds makers have started this spread as the Eagles favored -3! Below is some hot trends from both trends.
-Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
-The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games
-Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Arizona
-Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
-The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games
-Arizona is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Looking at these games shows us that both these teams are not only quality teams but great against the spread also.
Really tough to see any trends that make one team really jump out so think that you need to go to your other handicapping methods to get this winner.
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh– Well if the Steelers are going to make it to the Super Bowl they must beat Baltimore for a third time in one year. These teams are bitter AFC North rivals that always seem to play all the way to the last gun. This year Pittsburgh won both games in the last thirty seconds of the game. Odds Makers have mad Pittsburgh a favorite with a line of -6. Lets look at both of these teams recent trends to see if we can see any obvious trends!
-Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
-Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
-Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
-Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is not a good team against the spread this year conversely Baltimore has been almost a lock against the spread the second half of the season. This -6 point line favoring Pittsburgh is definitely a huge trend play on Baltimore at first glance. But don’t be so fast to lay down your next mortgage payment. Now you need to do your game handicapping and make sure that both favor Baltimore.
Hopefully these two trend breakdowns will help all of you get closer to picking winners against the spread. Remember Craig will be back later in the week to give a full breakdown of both games so check back later in the week!!
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