NCAAB Tournament Trends

NCAA Tournament Seed Records and Trends

NCAA Tournament is always exciting and we all know why we call it March Madness. Everybody is always looking for the next Davidson or Kent State that can upset and make it deep into the tournament. Winning your bracket though is not about picking the big upsets instead it’s about picking the most winners overall.

Predicting a bunch of upsets although fun does not usually lead to winning your pool.

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Handicapper Craig Trapp is here today to give you trends for seed since 1985 and overall records that will help you figure out this year’s March Madness.

#1 Seeds– Of course no #1 seed has ever lost in the first round but even better the overall record for #1 seeds is (376-104) 78% win percentage overall in the NCAA tournament.

#2 Seeds– Only 4 #2 seeds have lost in first round and none since 2001. Overall record (267-114) 70% win percentage overall in the NCAA tournament.

#3 Seeds– First round upsets have occurred 15 times since 1985. Overall Record (199-116) 63% win percentage overall in the NCAA tournament.

#4 Seeds– Upsets for first round have happened 21 times in the last 24 years. Overall NCAA tournament record (161-118) 57% win percentage.

#5 Seeds– Everybody knows that this #12 seeds always seem to upset #5 seeds in fact 31 times since 1985 they have upset the favorite in the first round. Overall NCAA tournament record (141-121) 53% win percentage overall.

#6 Seeds– Only 30 out of 96 times have the #6 been upset since 1985! Overall record (154-118) 56 % win percentage overall!

#7 Seeds– Not a big upset when they lose the first round surprisingly they have a good win percentage in the first round since 1985 going 60-36. Overall record (105-120) 46% win percentage overall.

#8 Seeds– Many don’t consider this first round loss an upset because these teams are always so similar. Since 1985 overall record 44-52. Overall record is (88-119) 42% win percentage overall.

Other interesting trends: Since 1985 there has only been one tournament where none of the number 1 seeds made the Final Four. That was the 2006 NCAA tourney. Number 1 seeds have squared off in the national championship game only 5 times since 1985. The last time was in 2008 with Kansas beating Memphis to win the title.

Note: That two number 1 seeds also made it to the final in 2005 with North Carolina taking out Illinois to become champions. So while overall NCAA tournament trends show that two number 1 seeds in the title game are uncommon, the feat has been achieved in 3 of the last 4 years.

Since 1985 number 1 seeds have won fourteen championships, number 2 seeds have won four, number 3 seeds have won three, and number 4 seeds have won one. That accounts for 22 of the 24 national championships since the field was expanded to 64 teams.

From these trends Craig’s advice is as follows. When filling out your NCAA tournament bracket the first thing you can do is advance all number 1 and 2 seeds to the second round. Since 3 and 4 seeds win 82% of the time in the first round, it’s a good bet to just go ahead and advance them to the second round as well. Chances are you’ll end up somewhere between 16-0 and 14-2 on those games alone.

Even if a 13 or 14 seed upsets a 3 or 4 seed they rarely go any farther than the second round.

Good Luck this year in March Madness!!

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