Marc Lawrence’s 2009 Big East Football Preview

BIG EAST CONFERENCE 2009 FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Marc Lawrence • PLAYBOOK.com

While BIG EAST CONFERENCE FOOTBALL continues to come up big in bowl games (12-4 SU the last three years), the fact of the matter is the league continues to shrink in stature. That’s because a dismal 15-25 ATS performance mark outside the conference last season watered down a sparkling 81-37 ATS effort the prior three years.

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Here is my take on the Big East for 2009.

Where to turn in 2009?  Our best suggestion would be to concentrate on the better coaches in this conference, while they are still here.  There are a handful of real good ones to choose.  Despite the fact that no team in the BIG EAST will be a legitimate threat for BCS title honors, there are coaches in this league that make a nice living beating the number.

CINCINNATI – *8 / 1

Team Theme – THE DEFENSE RESTS

What are the odds of a team using five different starting QB’s and winning a conference championship?  The odds should be pretty lofty but that’s exactly what Cincinnati did in 2008.  The Bearcats are happy that 6’6″ 230 lb SR QB Tony Pike is back.  Pike shredded a newly installed 3-4 defense, 69-27, in the Bearcat Bowl (Spring), going 25 of 35 for 210 yards and a touchdown.  It’s the defense that will likely be an Achilles heel for head coach Brian Kelly’s club this season.  After losing 13 starters from last year’s unit, Kelly was forced to make changes.  “I’m really pleased with our defense,” he claimed after the spring game.  “We got our defensive coordinator in place.”  What did he say?  It sounds an awful lot like coach-speak to us.  Kelly will have trouble notching another of those double-digit win seasons that he has PLAY AGAINST: vs. West Virginia (11/13)

CONNECTICUT – 6 / 6

Team Theme – HABIT FORMING

Is it any wonder Randy Edsall’s name seems to pop up annually when new coach searches are underway? To recap, in seven years since moving to Division 1-A football, the Huskies are 49-36.  In five years in the Big East, they have made three bowl games and won a conference championship.  They are also one of three teams this season that managed to improve their stats both offensively and defensively yet decline both SU and ATS last season. FYI: teams of this pedigree make a habit of rewarding their backers the following season.  Six starters are back from a defense that finished 6th in the land last year, including all linebackers. However, they will need to replace QB Tyler Lorenzen and RB Donald Brown, the Big East Player of the Year who rushed for a nation high 2083 yards in 2008.  Consider it a done deal.

PLAY ON: vs. Rutgers (10/31)

LOUISVILLE – 7 / 6

Team Theme – FIRE AND DESIRE

There’s a raging fire in Louisville and it’s centered on the seat belonging to head coach Steve Kragthorpe. Last year’s promising 5-2 start dissolved into an 0-5 finish, resulting in a second straight non-bowl season for the Cardinals. While it certainly is not the reason Coach ‘K’ was hired, it’s important to note that his teams at Tulsa were 12-13 after his first two years on the job.  His desire to get the Redbirds back into contention in the Big East has never been stronger.  In order to do so, Kragthorpe’s troops will need to outplay 8 opponents that played in bowl games last season, including 5 on the road. The fire in his belly should ignite his troops this season.  Let’s hope no one gets burned.

PLAY ON: vs. Kentucky (9/19)

PITTSBURGH – *7 / 7

Team Theme – STAIN REMOVER

Talk about a buzz-kill.  Just when it appeared the Panthers were in full remission from a three-year battle with mediocrity under head coach Dave Wannstedt, Pittsburgh laid an egg a pterodactyl would be envious of when they were shutout, 3-0, by Oregon State in last year’s Sun Bowl.  When Wannstedt was hired four years ago, Dennis Dodd of Sportline.com said, “There may be no other coach in the country who knows the very soil beneath him better than “Wanny”.  Wannstedt’s blood and sweat literally stain the grass at his alma mater.”  The players are in place, with SR QB Bill Stull and his top three targets back on the job in 2009.  Stull led his team to 4 come-from-behind 4Q wins last year. We believe that last year’s Sun Bowl disaster was just Wanny being Wanny.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Rutgers (10/16)

RUTGERS – 8 / 6

Team Theme – PICKUP STICKS

Sometimes, starting over can be a good thing.  Given a choice, Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano would rather not restart.  2009 looks to be a year of transition for the Knights.  With the loss of QB Mike Teel, they will be starting a new signal caller for the first time since 2005.  In addition, WR Kenny Britt, became a first-round draft choice of the Tennessee Titans. The coaching staff also has a fresh look with new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a new special teams coach.  Good news is that incumbent QB Domenic Natale, a Michigan State transfer, enjoyed a fine spring game.  He joins a backfield that features all 4 top RB’s back in 2009.  The bottom line is Schiano’s been here and done that. He’s just starting over, again.

PASS

SOUTH FLORIDA – *5 / 6

Team Theme – YOUNG BULLS

It used to be when the big boys scheduled obligatory non-conference cupcake games against in-state lightweights it was an automatic “W”.  That’s not the case this year when Florida State and Miami, Florida take on in-state stepchild USF.  The red-headed Bulls have made their mark under head coach Jim Leavitt and are a force in the Big East Conference these days.  All-conference QB Matt Grothe returns along with 5 running backs that enjoyed breakout games last year.  However, other than a deep backfield, this year’s roster borders on delicate with 28 newcomers participating in the spring game.  Worse, 6 of the final 7 games are against foes that played in bowl games last season.  If you intend on riding this bull, makes plans to hop on early.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Pittsburgh (10/24)

SYRACUSE – *6 / 7

Team Theme  – COO, COO, CA-CHOO, MR. ROBINSON

A long-awaited new era is in finally place at Syracuse.  Greg Robinson and his 10-37 record was pink-slipped and replaced by Doug Marrone, the offensive coordinator with the New Orleans Saints for the last three years. His first edict was to establish a new image.  No facial hair, collared shirts for all interviews and mandatory effort in the classroom and on the field were right at the top of the list.  “We’ve changed,” WR Mike Williams said. “We have a new coach. Everybody wants to win. We’re working harder. We’re practicing harder. We’re doing stuff we didn’t do before. We’re getting up by 6 a.m. and working out. It’s great playing for coach Marrone. He’s all about winning. He wants to change now. He said he’s not into rebuilding programs, that he wants to win now.”

PLAY AGAINST: vs. West Virginia (10/11)

WEST VIRGINIA – 7 / 8

Team Theme – FADE FROM WHITE TO BROWN

West-by-God’s streak of three-consecutive Top 10 finishes came to a halt last season in Bill Stewarts’ first-year at the helm in Morgantown.  That’s not to say the Mountaineers underachieved.  That’s hardly the case.  Expected to flounder by many pundits following Rich Rodriguez’ evacuation to Michigan, WVU performed admirably last year, especially after opening the campaign 1-2.  The turning point was the 31 unanswered points scored in a win against shell-shocked Auburn.  That victory sustained an eventual 5-game win steak and put Stewart on the coaching map.  With QB Pat White off to the NFL, Jarrett Brown (2-0 as a starter) will fill his shoes.  Brown completed 16 straight passes in the spring game and appears ready for the challenge.  With dynamic Noel Devine (1289 rush yards last year) entrenched in the backfield, a 5th straight bowl win could be in the offing for the stump-jumpers.

PLAY ON: vs. Pittsburgh (11/27)

Coming up next: the Big 10 Conference.

Note: Marc Lawrence is a 30-year veteran handicapper. He finished No.1 in the nation (88-63 +25.7 Net Units) in MLB during the 2007 season as documented by Sports Watch in Las Vegas.

Comments are Welcome!!!

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Marc Lawrence Has Been Handicapping Sports Professionally Since 1975 – Check Out His Weekly Picks & His DAILY MLB PlAYS Today Here at Capperspicks.com >>>