Is the Super Bowl Winning Pick Already in the Bag?
This year’s Super Bowl seems to be just another game as it can’t compete with all the hype from a year ago when New England and the New York Giants hooked up with all the buzz surrounding a perfect season. But don’t let this year’s matchup fool you as it too has some interesting stories. First off we have a team (Arizona) who had not won a playoff since 1947. On the other side of the field Pittsburgh’s playoff woes rivaled the Cardinals before drafting Mean Joe Greene and Terry Bradshaw in 1969 and 1970 respectively. Pittsburgh broke into the NFL in 1933 and made the post season once before 1972 and now can claim to be the most decorated NFL franchises in history with a win as a Super Bowl Pick.
Between now and the start of the game you will have more useless information about players, coaches and teams that it often can confuse a potential winning Super Bowl Pick. So, instead of all this useless diatribe let’s take a look at two seperate angles that will acutally be pertinant.
Trend for Pittsburgh
PITTSBURGH is 35-14 ATS (+19.6 Units) versuss good passing teams who are averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.8, OPPONENT 18.8.
Certainly Pittsburgh has, by all accounts, assembled one of the greatest defenses of all time and are known for exerting extreme pressure on opposing QB’s and disrupting their passing games.
They have been at their best when facing the NFL’s best passing games going 35-14 ATS verusus teams passing for more than 7.0 yards per attempt. This could prove significant since Kurt Warner and team rely on the passing game. However, before jumping on this bandwagon, the average margin of victory in this trend is only 5.0 points per game. In addition this trend over the last three years is just 9-6 ATS, including 3-2 in ’08.
Trend for Arizona
ARIZONA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992. The average score was ARIZONA 20.4, OPPONENT 22.6.
Lot’s of “experts” are calling for Arizona to get blown out in Sunday’s Super Bowl Picks but the Cardinals have proven to be very competitive when matched up against top notch opponents. This angle becomes even more interesting when you look at their 7-1 ATS record over the last three seasons. The average score of Arizona 20.4, Opponent 22.6, is also important, as you realize that these games are in fact competitive. Arizona simply tends to play well in the underdog role.
