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2008/09 Super Bowl XLIII Betting Props

NFL Mid-Season Super Bowl Odds – Who Presents “Super” Value?

Now that we’re at the halfway point in the season, it makes sense to take a look at where we are. Some of the teams we were touting at the start have hit speed bumps; others may prove to be the Tampa Bay Rays of the NFL, but much remains to be seen. Here are the current odds on each team winning the Super Bowl, as posted at BetUS Sportsbook:

BetUS Super Bowl Odds

New England Patriots +2000
New York Jets +3000
Buffalo Bills +3300
Miami Dolphins +6000
Baltimore Ravens +2800
Cincinnati Bengals +100000
Pittsburgh Steelers +1000
Cleveland Browns +9000
Indianapolis Colts +1600
Tennessee Titans +500
Jacksonville Jaguars +6500
Houston Texans +15000
San Diego Chargers +1600
Denver Broncos +4000
Kansas City Chiefs +150000
Oakland Raiders +75000
Dallas Cowboys +1800
Philadelphia Eagles +1000
New York Giants +400
Washington Redskins +1000
Chicago Bears +2200
Green Bay Packers +2500
Minnesota Vikings +3300
Detroit Lions +200000
New Orleans Saints +3300
Carolina Panthers +1200
Atlanta Falcons +6500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2000
Seattle Seahawks +15000
San Francisco 49ers +50000
Arizona Cardinals +2000
St Louis Rams +30000

Can we go ahead and eliminate some teams right from the outset? Obviously the Bengals, Texans, Chiefs, Raiders, Lions, Seahawks, Niners and Rams are not going to win the Super Bowl, so it would be a waste of time to even bother with them.

There are other teams that are not mathematically eliminated, but are not necessarily worth an investment. The DOLPHINS (+6000 at BetUS) are at 4-4 and one game off the AFC East lead. But to expect that kind of a quantum leap one year after winning just one game is very unrealistic. The BROWNS (+9000 at BetUS) are not performing well enough on offense to get to the playoffs, much less make noise in them. The FALCONS (+6500 in BetUS) have made remarkable progress under Mike Smith, who makes a great coach of the year candidate, but you know they’re not winning the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback. The RAVENS (+2800 at BetUS) are strong on the defensive side, and can run the ball, but rookie Joe Flacco won’t lead this team to a Super Bowl title either. Likewise, the VIKINGS (+3300 at BetUS), despite strength on both the offensive and defensive lines, won’t go anywhere with Gus Frerotte, or with Tarvaris Jackson, for that matter. That much seems clear. The JETS (+3000 at BetUS) have Brett Favre, but not a good enough team all-around. The JAGUARS (+6500 at BetUS) obviously have the capability to do something if they could get to the post-season, but they’re not going to win the division, and they are in a logjam for a wild card spot.

The PATRIOTS (+2000 at BetUS) carry much of the same roster that went undefeated last year, but with Matt Cassell at quarterback they are limited, and have to be careful not to be shut out of the playoff picture. The BRONCOS (+4000 at BetUS) are leading a very weak division, but they can’t stop the run, and that is killing them now and will kill them off completely before the dust settles. The BEARS (+2200 at BetUS) could win the division, but how far can they actually go? The PACKERS (+2500 at BetUS) are a game back in the NFC North, and could be a better value, with more upside, as Aaron Rodgers has proven himself to be a capable replacement for Favre. The SAINTS (+3300 at BetUS) still have a chance at a wild card berth, and they really ARE a wild card, because the efficiency of Drew Brees. Remember that they made it to the NFC title game two seasons ago. The BUCS (+2000 at BetUS) seem like the type of squad that will always stop short of getting there, which sounds unusual, doesn’t it, considering that Jon Gruden has already won a Super Bowl there.

The BILLS (+3300 at BetUS) are coming in at a big price, but they’re in a three-way fight for the division title to begin with. And losing home games to the Jets, as they did on Sunday, are not the way to get there. The CARDINALS (+2000 at BetUS) are an interesting proposition, because of the revived Kurt Warner and his pair of Pro Bowl receivers (Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin). But Arizona can’t run the ball all that well, which disturbs Ken Whisenhunt no end. They have a three-game lead in the NFC West, which means it’s likely they’ll make the post-season. But they look like a one-and-out team once they get there.

The CHARGERS (+1600 at BetUS) came on at the end of the season the last two years, and even though they don’t have Shawne Merriman in the fold right now, and LaDanian Tomlinson isn’t having his best season, they are only a game out of the AFC West lead and are a better team than Denver. If they can get to the playoffs, they can make their presence felt. The PANTHERS (+1200 at BetUS) still have some players who have been to the Super Bowl, and they are doing some of the things they want, like running the ball and playing defense. Carolina lacks explosiveness, but they are not far from the upper echelon in the NFC. The COLTS (+1600 at BetUS) have to count on making the playoffs as a wild card team, since they are four games off the division lead. But maybe there’s some momentum gained from the Sunday night win over New England and the return of Bob Sanders, and would you count Peyton Manning out in a playoff atmosphere?

The STEELERS (+1000 at BetUS) are, in my opinion, going to win the AFC North, but they had better protect Ben Roethlisberger better. I don’t think they’re much of a value at that number. The TITANS (+500 at BetUS) are priced about right. With an 8-0 record, they have the inside track at home field advantage in the playoffs, and they are demonstrating that they can win with a quarterback (Kerry Collins) who isn’t a big playmaker. Chris Johnson is a simply sensational rookie.

That leaves the teams in the NFC East, all of which could make themselves heard in the playoffs, if they get there, that is. The REDSKINS (+1000 at BetUS) are working Jim Zorn’s new west coast attack very well, and going into Monday night’s game, Jason Campbell had yet to throw an interception. With Clinton Portis running the ball as well anyone, there is balance. But if Campbell combusts, this thing goes downhill. I don’t see value at this number. The EAGLES (+1000 at BetUS) can win games on the road, but they are not priced attractively either; they could be battling for the final playoff spot with a number of teams. The COWBOYS (+1800 at BetUS) have upside because they could look like a very different team once Tony Romo and Felix Jones return. I can see them recovering in time to make the playoffs, and even though they are in last place in the division they are still positioned for a wild card berth.

The GIANTS (+400 at BetUS) were a team I touted at the beginning of the season as a tremendous value at +1500. You probably should have taken them at that time. But New York is, on balance, the team that has the strongest position. Maybe. After all, they proved last year that they don’t have to be playing at home to fly through the post-season, which means a slip-up won’t be tragic. And they are the best running team in football, so they are in good shape for the cold weather, if that’s what they have to encounter. They’re not MY Giants, but I’m sticking with them anyway.

Although I got them at a better price.


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