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Handicapping the 2013 NFL Team Win Totals Lines & Futures

2013 NFL Over/Under Betting?

The draft is done, the schedule is out and lines are even posted on some of the key games throughout the season…you can almost smell the optimism. Thank you football for giving us an offseason that is actually interested.

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I am normally not huge on season win totals in the NFL because of the way the scheduling is supposed to induce parity but here are some of the teams and totals that got my attention. You may have to wait them out but there are some good values out there.

Arizona Cardinals – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 5½ (+120)
Under 5½ (-150)

First one on the board and I have to go under. Arizona should be improved with the arrival of QB Carson Palmer but when I look at the schedule I see only 2, maybe 3, surefire wins. That means they are going to need three upset wins to reach the number against a schedule heavy on the NFC South and road games against Tennessee and Philadelphia who should be better too. Its going to take more than Palmer to become respectable.

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Atlanta Falcons – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 10 (+105)
Under 10 (-135)

Baltimore Ravens – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 8½ (-115)
Under 8½ (-115)

Buffalo Bills – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 6½ (+110)
Under 6½ (-140)

Its possible the Bills are the second best team in the AFC East this season. If they can take 3 of 4 against the Jets and Dolphins then I think they can find 4 or more wins on the rest of their modest schedule, especially with a more consistent presence at QB (though I don’t really like any of their options). The offense could be a little more explosive this year and the defense should be stout.

Carolina Panthers – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 7 (-130)
Under 7 (EVEN)

I count 7 wins on their schedule right now and QB Cam Newton could easily steal another couple so why not go for it. If they can keep their starting defense on the field and healthy then it is probably the best in the NFC South. This team just needs to put together some kind of a streak so Newton can have some real confidence.

Chicago Bears – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 8½ (-130)
Under 8½ (EVEN)

Is Chicago the worst team in the NFC North? Quite possibly which puts them behind the 8 ball in terms of achieving a .500 record or better. Other than a visit to Cleveland I think they might lose all their road games this season and I have never been a Jay Cutler believer. The offensive talent is still pretty thin and they are losing character linebacker Brian Urlacher on defense. Where are the wins going to come from?

Cincinnati Bengals – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 8½ (-130)
Under 8½ (EVEN)

I might be too bullish but I actually see a possible 12 wins on the schedule for Cincinnati – if Baltimore really retreats to the pack as expected and they sweep the Ravens instead of splitting. I don’t know why they won’t give this team more respect given they should be the favourite to win the division. Not only are they good but they are young and have room to grow. None of the players they rely upon have reached their ceiling yet.

Cleveland Browns – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 6 (-115)
Under 6 (-115)

Dallas Cowboys – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 8½ (-115)
Under 8½ (-115)

I am never all that high on Dallas in general but I don’t see any way of them topping this total unless Philadelphia, under their first year coach Chip Kelly, is just awful and Washington tanks too as RGIII has a major sophomore slump or misses significant time. The receiving talent is all there but QB Tony Romo just seems to struggle when it matters most. I accept the fact that may not be statistically true but I still believe it…I have seen it too many times.

Denver Broncos – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 11½ (EVEN)
Under 11½ (-130)

Unless QB Peyton Manning gets hurt I like Denver to cover even this pretty high total. They beefed up the receiving corp even more this offseason with the addition of WR Wes Welker and have a joke of a schedule. The AFC West is very weak and in transition right now with new coaches. They also get lightweights like Jacksonville at home, a gimme if there ever was one. This total is high and you will have to wait but it is pretty good value at these odds.

Detroit Lions – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 7½ (-130)
Under 7½ (EVEN)

Green Bay Packers – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 10½ (-130)
Under 10½ (EVEN)

Houston Texans – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 10½ (-115)
Under 10½ (-115)

Indianapolis Colts – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 8½ (EVEN)
Under 8½ (-130)

Jacksonville Jaguars – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 5 (-115)
Under 5 (-115)

This team is just plain awful. The Blaine Gabbert experiment is a total failure but to be totally fair I am not sure many quarterbacks could win with this rag tag bunch. Even with some potentially winnable games at home I would be surprised if the Jags break through 3 victories this season. It is extreme but a total shutout on the year wouldn’t shock me.

Kansas City Chiefs – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 7 (-130)
Under 7 (EVEN)

Miami Dolphins – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 7½ (-135)
Under 7½ (+105)

I am not bullish on the Dolphins. I don’t like their young quarterback Steve Tanneyhill, or the weapons they have surrounded him with, even with the addition of speedster Mike Wallace from Pittsburgh. More importantly I really don’t like their schedule. They open on the road against Cleveland but if they don’t get that one they could be 0 for September which would just cripples this team’s confidence. This team needs huge not incremental improvement to reach that total.

Minnesota Vikings – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 7½ (EVEN)
Under 7½ (-130)

New England Patriots – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 11½ (EVEN)
Under 11½ (-130)

New Orleans Saints – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 9½ (-115)
Under 9½ (-115)

New Orleans will certainly be under the microscope after last season’s strange season. Coach Sean Payton is back and they draw the AFC East this year which should mean at least 3 victories, maybe even 4 because I think the Pats are in for a “down” season this year. New Orleans’ offense should continue to throw off yards but their improving defense will make the difference here. Things are now back to normal and they should make the playoffs.

New York Giants – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 9 (-115)
Under 9 (-115)

New York Jets – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 6½ (+110)
Under 6½ (-140)

The Jets have 4 very winnable games on their schedule – all at home this season. That is a good place to start but this team is defined by what they don’t have, namely a reliable quarterback, an effective running game or consistent threats at wide receiver. They are going to need either Buffalo or Miami or both to sneak below them if they are going to exceed this total the way things look right now.

Oakland Raiders – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 5½ (+120)
Under 5½ (-150)

Are the Raiders worse than Jacksonville? We will get an answer to that question in the second week of the season when these teams collide. Win or lose the chances of the worst team in the AFC West eclipsing 5 wins seem slim to me. The offense is pitiful featuring QBs nobody wants and a running back that can’t stay healthy…the defense is not going to win many games for them either. The best they can hope for is that San Diego and Kansas City struggle more than expectedly with their new leadership.

Philadelphia Eagles – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 7 (-115)
Under 7 (-115)

If everything goes according to plan the offense could be one of the most explosive in the league this season as the weapons are definitely there. The league has known no greater QB runner than Michael Vick and it is exciting to think about him cranking up the yardage under Kelly. But even if all that happens the Eagles are still going to have to play some defense to win games. That remains to be seen. They should improve but in this tough division will it be enough.

Pittsburgh Steelers – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 9 (-115)
Under 9 (-115)

San Diego Chargers – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 7½ (EVEN)
Under 7½ (-130)

San Diego could be in for a very difficult season as I think they may not get their first win of the season until a week 5 visit to Oakland. The defense should be improved this year and be able to make some game changing plays but I am afraid that Philip Rivers is no longer an elite QB – if he ever really was – and his mistakes really haunt this team. He seems to turnover the ball in the absolute worst spots. This is the one I am least sure about though.

San Francisco 49ers – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 11½ (EVEN)
Under 11½ (-130)

Seattle Seahawks – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 10½ (-130)
Under 10½ (EVEN)

St. Louis Rams – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 7 (-115)
Under 7 (-115)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 7½ (-130)
Under 7½ (EVEN)

Tennessee Titans – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 6½ (EVEN)
Under 6½ (-130)

I am looking for the Titans to take a bit of a step forward and become a .500 team this season. QB Jake Locker will finally prove that he belongs in the NFL this year by staying healthy and cutting down on the mistakes that have haunted the team in the past. Tennessee also benefits from playing a really weak schedule including a couple of games against Jacksonville and others against the likes of Oakland and Arizona.

Washington Redskins – 2013 Regular Season Win Total

Over 8½ (+110)
Under 8½ (-140)

At this point there is no certainty that QB Robert Griffin III will be healed up enough to start the season. This assessment is assuming he is but even with him I think Redskins will be hard pressed to match last year’s playoff team. The schedule is much tougher including improving teams in the division but their quest is aided by getting to play the weak AFC West for four games. Last year might have used up all the magic and this team hasn’t improved that much over this offseason. (Note: Backup QB Kirk Cousins is good enough to win games so my overall assessment doesn’t change much if he is in the lineup.)

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


Comments

  • DeanIverson

    the cards win under 5.5 games, lol, if the niners flail as I suspect unless the Pikers and Hawkers completely fall flat the niners go 2-6 the first half, the Cards will win more than 6 assuridly specially of the QB gets hurt early on and Palmer replaces him..

    I dunno what they saw in that skelton dood but he is very skerry IMO, had the cards backup remained healthy last season they would have been right up there, they know how to play tough teams so if Carson steps it up I say they are a threat to the NFCW if not the entire league?

    I had imagined the Lambs to be up there but man the just look pathetic on both sides of the ball thus far..

    nuther looker? Brownies, if they can improve on where they left off last season they will be a threat in that division, not a crystal ball call there, just common sense, look how they played the Rams and what they are doing to the very good looking Lions as I type, its 17-3 at the half and the Lions second and third teams look very good..

    whats going on in Cleveland is anybodies guess but I suspect they are simply tired of getting their guts stomped out and are running on heart, and when players and coaches start running on heart anything can happen, look for the browns to engage is some serious upsets and catch a couple teams with their pants down..

    I say they have huge spoiler potential and make quick work of the Billys Sunday night…

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