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Week 5: KU vs. Baylor Preview & Pick

Kansas Jayhawks vs Baylor Bears Gambling Preview + Predictions

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Jayhawks at Bears Week 5 Lines

Date/Time: Saturday, October 2, 12 PM ET
Venue: Floyd Casey Stadium, Waco TX
Broadcast: None
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Baylor Bears Betting Lines from JustBet
Money Line: Kansas (+165) Baylor (-185)
Spread: Baylor -9
Over/Under: 50 ½
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Kansas Jayhawks vs. Baylor Bears Preview

In the first Big 12 game for both teams this Saturday afternoon the Baylor Bears (3-1) host the Kansas Jayhawks (2-2). College football lines have Baylor as a 9-point favorite in this game with a total of 50.5.

Kansas has had a strange season to date, as they lose to North Dakota State of the FBS in their season opener and then beat, then, 15th ranked Georgia Tech in their next game. They then lost to a solid Southern Miss team before laying a beat down on New Mexico State in their last game. Which Jayhawks team will show up this Saturday?

Baylor is 3-1 and they have beaten the teams they should have and their one loss was to 4th ranked TCU. Baylor has a legit team with a solid QB leading the nation’s 36th ranked passing offense and the Bears look to have their first winning season since they joined the Big 12 in 1996.

Even though both teams are in the Big 12 Baylor is in the South Division while Kansas is in the North Division and they have not met since the 2007 season when Kansas went 11-1 and won the BCS Orange Bowl.

In their last games Baylor beat Rice 30-13 and Kansas killed New Mexico State 42-16.

Heading into this Big 12 battle both teams are 2-2 ATS.

The one thing going for Kansas in this game is they have a stellar secondary and the nation’s 5th ranked pass defense, which will have to play well this Saturday.

Baylor used a very well balanced offense to beat Rice with 268 passing yards and 188 rushing yards.

The Bears and their legit passing attack is led by exciting QB Robert Griffin, who had a great game against Rice going 20/28 for 268 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT. Griffin is also a threat to move the chains on the ground, as he is the second leading rusher for the Bears this season with 157 yards and 2 TD.

Besides Griffin in the backfield the Bears feature the RB duo of Terrance Ganaway, who averaged 9.9 yards per carry against Rice, and Jay Finley, who is the leading rusher for Baylor. These guys may have big games, as while Kansas is great defending the pass they are not good at defending the run.

Kansas has the nation’s 88th ranked rushing defense that last week gave up 128 rushing yards to New Mexico State, which is one of the weakest teams in college football.
The Jayhawks have to play all-around defense in this game or they will not score an upset.

Kansas does not have a dynamic offense to say the least, as they rank 79th in the nation in passing yards per game and 63rd in rushing yards per game.

Kansas racked up 501 yards against New Mexico State (264 yards passing 237 yards rushing) and they are led by QB Jordan Webb, who played well last week going 17/27 for 249 yards and 1 TD. Baylor has the nation’s 46th ranked pass defense and last week they were solid allowing Rice to gain 204 yards through the air, but they did have 2 INT’s.

Simms will likely have time to find his targets, as Baylor does not feature a great pass rush with only 7 sacks in their first 4 games, but Kansas has given up 12 sacks in their 4 games and their offensive line has to protect Simms and open up holes for the running game.

Luckily for Kansas the weakness of Baylor is their rushing defense ranking 72nd in the nation. Last week they gave up only 92 rushing yards to Rice, but the previous week against TCU they gave up 291 rushing yards.

Kansas is led in the backfield by RB James Sims, who played great last week rushing for 115 yards with 2 TD averaging 7.2 yards per carry. However, he did that against a New Mexico run defense that ranks 115th in the nation out of 120 teams. He has to pick up some yards in this game for the Jayhawks to win.

This is a tough one to call since Kansas is an up-and-down team and are very unpredictable. However, they will come out and play well in this game and while I do not think they will win I think they will cover the 9-point spread.

Betting Trends:

Kansas is 1-7 ATS in their last Big 12 games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, and has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 games.
Baylor is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Big 12 games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, and has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.

Pick: Kansas +9

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