Duke vs Virginia Handicapping
Venue/ Stadium: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
Time/Date: 9 PM EST Thursday, February 28, 2013
NCAAB Odds From: BetOnline
Spread: Virginia -1
No. 3 Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Preview
Duke has won 2 straight, 8 of their last 9 games, and if they finish the season strong they can snag a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia snapped their 2 game losing streak in their last game and they look to be in good position for the Big Dance with 19 wins and 9-5 in ACC play, but they can lock up their bid if they can beat Duke tonight. NCAAB lines have Virginia as 1-point home favorites with a total of 129.
In their last games Duke beat Boston College 89-68 and Virginia beat Georgia Tech 82-54.
On the season Duke is 15-12 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 14-12 and Virginia is 16-7-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 10-6.
Virginia is 16-1 at home this season and Duke is 4-3 on the road.
The Cavaliers have won 15 straight home games, but only 1 of those wins came against a ranked team and they have not beat Duke in the last 6 seasons. The Blue Devils have won 17 of their last 18 games facing Virginia.
Virginia will have to play good all-around defense, as the Blue Devils can score inside and outside and they are a deep team. They are led by F Mason Plumlee (17.5 ppg 10.7 rpg), who has 16 double doubles this season, and G Seth Curry (16.8 ppg). Also, freshman G has averaged 22 ppg in his last 2 games.
The Cavaliers are one of the lowest scoring teams in the ACC averaging 65 ppg, but in their last 6 games they are averaging 74 ppg on 50.9% shooting.
Virginia is led by G Joe Harris (16.6 ppg), who is averaging 20.9 ppg in his last 9 games, but he has struggled against Duke in the last couple of seasons. One player that must play well is FW Akil Mitchell (12.6 ppg 8.7 rpg), as he must give the Cavaliers some inside scoring and he also has to play good D on Plumlee in the paint.
Mitchell will also need help on the boards, as he is the leading rebounder while the 2nd leading rebounder is Harris and he is a guard. The Cavaliers only rank 283rd in the nation in rebounds per game.
In some betting trends for this ACC match up Duke is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and they have an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Virginia is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, and they have an Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 games.
Jason’s Pick: Duke is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Cavaliers in Virginia and not sure why the Cavs are the favorite tonight. Duke will not only cover, but they will win as well.