STP 500 Gambling Preview
The NASCAR Sprint Cup series returns to the East Coast for its second short track race of the new season with the running of the STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway. Sunday’s race is set to get underway at 1 p.m. and it will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
NASCAR Sprint Cup- STP 500 Preview and Prediction
Race: STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway
Date: Sunday, March 30, 2014
Time: 1 p.m. (ET)
Broadcast: FOX
Odds By Bovada
Kyle Busch wasted little time claiming his first point race victory of the season with a thrilling win last Sunday at Fontana. Kyle Larson continued to impress after winning Saturday’s Nationwide event with a second-place finish and Kurt Busch made it a family affair by taking third.
The following is a look at my top favorite, contender and longshot to win this Sunday’s race based on odds provided by Bovada.
The Favorite (odd of less than 10/1)
I had Jeff Gordon tagged as my top contender for the race at Fontana at 16/1 odds and he did keep things interesting for a while by leading 23 laps of that race.
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This week he has been opened as an 11/2 second-favorite after Jimmie Johnson to win on Sunday and I really like his chances. The No. 24 car has raced extremely well so far with two top-five finishes along with two additional runs in the top 10.
The team is currently sixth in the Sprint Cup standings and a win this week would most likely move them into the lead. The real value in Gordon’s odds is his impressive resume at Martinsville. He has eight career Sprint Cup victories at this track including one in the second race here in 2013.
He finished third in last year’s race and his average finishing position here is 6.8.
The Contender (odds from 10/1 to 19/1)
This week’s pick as my top contender is also sporting some long odds for this category at 18/1. There is no denying that Kasey Kahne is off to a less than spectacular start this season with just two top-10 finishes in the first five point races.
The No. 5 car did finish eighth at Bristol, which was the first short track race this season.
The main reason I like Kahne’s chances this week is his recent form at Martinsville. He has placed in the top five in two of his last three trips around this track with a third-place finish in the fall race in 2012 and a fourth-place finish in last year’s race.
The Longshot (odds 20/1 or greater)
When you are looking for value in longshots, sometimes you can strike gold riding a veteran driver with a ton of experience even though their current form and past history at a certain track is not that hot. That is the case with this week’s pick, Tony Stewart at 22/1.
The No. 14 car does have two top five finishes this season including a fourth-place finish at Bristol and it appears to be running better each and every week.
Martinsville is definitely not one of Stewart’s strongest tracks with an average finishing position of 13.8, but he does have three career Sprint Cup victories at this venue including one as recently as the fall race in 2011.
Odds from Bovada
- JIMMIE JOHNSON 2-1
- JEFF GORDON 5-1
- DENNY HAMLIN 8-1
- BRAD KESELOWSKI 8-1
- KYLE BUSCH 8-1
- CLINT BOWYER 8-1
- KEVIN HARVICK 12-1
- MATT KENSETH 18-1
- DALE EARNHARDT JR 18-1
- KASEY KAHNE 18-1
- JOEY LOGANO 30-1
- RYAN NEWMAN 35-1
- TONY STEWART 35-1
- CARL EDWARDS 40-1
- KURT BUSCH 50-1
- GREG BIFFLE 50-1
- BRIAN VICKERS 50-1
- JAMIE McMURRAY 50-1
- AUSTIN DILLON 100-1
- MARTIN TRUEX JR 100-1
- RICKY STENHOUSE JR 100-1
- KYLE LARSON 100-1
- ARIC ALMIROLA 100-1
- MARCOS AMBROSE 100-1
- PAUL MENARD 150-1
- AJ ALLMENDINGER 300-1
- DANICA PATRICK 300-1
- CASEY MEARS 500-1
- JUSTIN ALLGAIER 2000-1
- FIELD 300-1
