2011 Good Sam RV Insurance 500 – Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Preview: If it seems like NASCAR was just at this track recently, you’re right. This is the Cup boys’ second visit to the “Tricky Triangle” this year, having just raced here in mid-June. That race was won by Jeff Gordon with Kurt Busch finishing second. 
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Race: Good Sam RV Insurance 500 – Pocono Raceway
Date: Sunday, August 7, 2011
Time: 1:19 PM ET (scheduled green flag)
TV: 1:00 PM ET on ESPN
Pocono Raceway is a unique 2.5-mile tri-oval with three different corners and three different straightaways, making it a challenging and technical racetrack. Dodge Motorsports Engineer Howard Comstock notes,
“You have to figure fuel economy is a key. In recent years, we’ve seen fuel economy play a big part in the strategy and the outcome of the race.
With tires not an issue, teams stretch the run until they need fuel. That’s when you run into trouble at this place.”
Safe Bet: (odds of less than 10/1)
• Carl Edwards (8/1): I was originally going to pick Jeff Gordon at 5/1 until I saw his qualifying spot (31st). Edwards qualified fourth and has won here twice; he finished third in this race last year. With his contract negotiations finally settled (he’s staying at Roush), Edwards can concentrate on a title run – he currently leads the Sprint Cup standings.
Mid Range: (odds between 10/1 – 20/1)
• Kurt Busch (12/1): Busch finished second here in June and has won at Pocono twice, both times in the second race of the year (2005 and 2007). He qualified fifth for Sunday’s race. Though he said he’s been too tight in race trim, Busch hopes adjustments to the car after qualifying will give him a competitive edge on Sunday.
Long Shot: (odds of greater than 20/1)
• Ryan Newman (25/1): Newman had the fastest car in Happy Hour Friday and qualified 12th for the race. Ryan has one win here (2003 in a Dodge) and finished ninth back in June. Newman won from the pole at Loudon two weeks ago and finished 12th at Indy last week. [ad-8757089]
Summary:
In 67 races at Pocono, dating all the way back to 1974, only three have been won from a starting spot outside the top 20, with 70% of winners coming from the top 10.
Jeff Gordon, the winningest active driver at Pocono (five wins), won here in June but qualified 31st for Sunday’s race; Tony Stewart qualified 28th.
The National Weather Service forecast calls for an 80% chance of heavy rain Saturday night and a 60% chance of thunderstorms Sunday.
NASCAR – Good Sam RV Insurance 500 Odds To Win
Hamlin, Denny 3-1
Edwards, Carl 6-1
Kahne, Kasey 7-1
Harvick, Kevin 8-1
Johnson, Jimmie 8-1
Busch, Kurt 10-1
Busch, Kyle 12-1
Gordon, Jeff 15-1
Stewart, Tony 18-1
Lagano, Joey 18-1
Biffle, Greg 20-1
Martin, Mark 20-1
Kenseth, Matt 25-1
Bowyer, Clint 30-1
Earnhardt Jr., Dale 30-1
Burton, Jeff 30-1
Newman, Ryan 30-1
Menard, Paul 40-1
Montoya, Juan 50-1
Keselowski, Brad 60-1
Ragan, David 75-1
McMurray, Jamie 80-1
Vickers, Brian 100-1
Smith, Regan 100-1
Allmendinger, A.J. 100-1
Reutimann, David 100-1
Ambrose, Marcos 150-1
Labonte, Bobby 500-1
Against the Field (any other driver) 100-1
