NFL Football Odds – Opening Night – Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints Free Pick & Preview
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Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
Thursday September 9 – 8:30PM
Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans
Minnesota (0-0) vs New Orleans (0-0)
Moneyline: New Orleans -230, Minnesota +190
Spread Favourite: New Orleans -5
Over/Under: 48
(odds courtesy of BetUS – BET NOW Click Here!)
Minnesota Vikings
I guess you have to start by acknowledging that Brett Favre is back ,but this is not the same team he “left” after the playoffs last year. First they have lost their top WR Sidney Rice for at least half the season due to injury; backup RB Chester Taylor (who was more valuable than people think) will be playing for the Bears; and it is anybody’s guess how much dynamic playmaker Percy Harvin will see the field this season. Oh and Brett is a year older and coming off of ankle surgery with a reported bone spur in his ankle right now. This is still a good team but one with questions marks and a brutal opening schedule starting against the Super Bowl champs in New Orleans.
On the defensive side of the ball things are considerably more stable. They may have the best defensive line in the league. They can put pressure on the QB from the edge and with the Williams wall in the middle they can certainly stuff the run. The D is entering week 1 a little dinged up as it looks like middle linebacker E.J. Henderson and defensive back Cedric Griffin might miss this contest. Against a dynamic team like the Saints that is not going to help matters. 
In last year’s playoff match the Vikings dominated the game statistically except for one area – turnovers. Prior to Brett Favre’s OT interception the Vikings had coughed up the ball 4 times and as great as RB Adrian Peterson is he is known to put the ball on the ground. Now he is backed up by two rookies so you know the Saints, who thrived on creating turnovers this year will be extra aggressive in this one, trying to punch out some fumbles. Despite the injuries the Vikings should still be able to put points on the board but you can not give Drew Brees and the Saints offense a short field. They are hard enough to stop as it is.
New Orleans Saints
Everything clicked for New Orleans last year resulting in a Super Bowl victory. Lately, after a team wins it struggles to keep its core together but this hasn’t really been the case for the Saints. Any sense that they are not a favourite again this year stems from the fact that this is a mostly one dimensional team that got a lot of breaks last season. That offensive is virtually intact led by Drew Brees, who might be the best QB in the league (Sorry Peyton). The only loss is in the backfield where Mike Bell fled. He was the second leading rusher but this is really a committee situation that features the passing game anyway.
When you are champs everything seems to go your way. New Orleans definitely experienced a bit of that last season with turnovers. With Drew Brees at the controls they do not turn it over much but their defense, with DC Gregg Williams is aggressive and creates lots of TOs. Last year they converted an amazing amount of them into scores so many are skeptical they won’t be able to do so again. I’m not. This is one of the best offenses around so even though defensive TDs are amazing momentum plays the offense does not need much help to get into the end zone. As long as the D can still make a few key plays each game the Saints will be a championship contender again.
This game is a tough one to handicap. Super Bowl winners at home to start the season have some great data that back them up (6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS with the only ATS loss last year by Pittsburgh) but you can’t forget how the Minnesota D last year really put the clamps on the Saints and that without all those turnovers the Vikings might have played in the Super Bowl. Add to that that the Vikings strolled into NO in 2008 and walked away with SU and ATS victories as +3 dogs and its gets more confusing still. Do the Vikings really have the Saints number?
The Pick: Despite the trend against them (0-5 ATS against Minnesota) I just can’t get behind the Vikings in this spot. Looks like a close one that Minnesota will have a chance to win but comes up short. Watch the line as kickoff approaches though.
NFL Gambling Trends:
Vikings are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 1.
Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New Orleans.
Score Prediction: New Orleans 30 – Minnesota 24
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