Steelers vs. Lions Trends + Week 5 Pick

October 11, 2009 by Ray M.

NFL Betting Week 5 – Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10½) vs. Detroit Lions( +10½)
OU (44)
Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM ET

The defending Super Bowl-champion Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U) have struggled mightily this season but recorded a solid win their last time out, beating the dysfunctional San Diego Chargers 38-28 as 5.5-point home favorites in Week 4.

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BetUS NFL betting members can expect the Steelers to look a whole lot better when they hit the road to take on the rebuilding Detroit Lions (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U) at Ford Field on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

Rashard Mendenhall rushed for 165 yards on 29 carries with two touchdowns to lead the Steelers to their Week 4 while the game’s final score played well Over the 41-point Over/Under total.

Matthew Stafford completed 24 of 36 passes for 296 yards with one touchdown and one interception before suffering a scary knee injury in Detroit’s 48-24 blowout loss to the Chicago Bears in Week 4.

The Lions failed to cover the game’s NFL betting odds as a 9.5-point road underdog while the 72 combined points played well Over the 43-point O/U total.

Here is a look at this contests key trends and NFL Betting Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert NFL Free Picks.

Steelers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Lions are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Lions are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Over is 4- 1 in Steelers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Under is 4- 0 in Lions last 4 home games.

NFL Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers -10½ -110
Detroit Lions +10½ -110
Over 44 -110
Under 44 -110

Analysis: While the Pittsburgh Steelershave recorded some absolutely ugly trends in this contest, I don’t think there’s much doubt that they are going to steamroll the young and rebuilding Lions who may sit strong-armed rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford after he narrowly escaped a serious knee injury in Week 4.

No matter who’s under center for the Lions, they are going down and going down hard to a Steelers team that will almost assuredly have hard-hitting safety Troy Polamalu back on the field this week.

Yes, the Steelers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road favorite, but Pittsburgh will be facing a Detroit Lions team that has gone a discouraging 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games overall and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.

With the Under going 4- 0 in Detroit’s last four home games, I also like the Under to play out as well.

NFL Free Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers -10½ Points/Under 44 Total Points