Cappers Jaguars vs. Broncos Betting Trends + Pick

October 9, 2008 by Ray M.

Desperate Jaguars Hit Road to Face High Scoring Broncos

The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U), had high hopes of making their first Super Bowl appearance this season after a recording a promising 11-5 record in 2007, but are in serious danger of even making the playoffs this season even at this early juncture of the 2008 regular season.

The Denver Broncos (4-1 SU, 1-3-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U) have rebounded from a disappointing 7-9 record last season in a big way and look like they are going to be a threat to reach the AFC title game this season.

The teams will square off at Invesco Field at Mile High on Sunday in an important matchup that could go a long way toward determining each of their respective postseason fates in the AFC this season.

The Jaguars are coming off a close 26-21 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites in the BetUS Sportsbook last weekend as the Steelers held the Jaguars’ powerful rushing attack to a mere 38 yards on 19 carries!

The Broncos beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16-13 on Sunday with a very strong defensive performance but failed to cover the 3.5-point spread as home favorites.

Blossoming quarterback Jay Cutler completed 23 of 34 passes for 227 yards with one touchdown, completing passes to a whopping nine different receivers.

Cutler leads all AFC quarterbacks in passing yards (1,502), operating the league’s No.2 offense and third-highest scoring team, (29.8 ppg).

Owners of the team’s 29th-ranked defense, the Broncos surprisingly shut down the Buccaneers with ease.

“We’ve been in some high-scoring ballgames, back and forth, and our defense has caught a little heat,” said Cutler. “We had some trouble stopping some people, but we knew they were a lot better than that. It’s good to see them lock it down this week.”

The Jaguars have struggled on both sides of the ball, ranking 26th in total offense and 21st in defense. Still, the Jaguars have found a way to hang around in every game this season, with the outcomes of each of their fives games so far, all being decided by a touchdown or less.

Here is a look at the key trends for each team, followed by my in-depth analysis and NFL Free Picks.

Jaguars

Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Jacksonville’s last 17 games
Jacksonville is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Jacksonville’s last 10 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville’s last 8 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver

Broncos

Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver’s last 5 games
Denver is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver’s last 16 games at home
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver’s last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

NFL Odds

Jacksonville Jaguars + 3½ -115
Denver Broncos -3½ -105

Over 48½ -110
Under 48½ -110

Analysis: Jacksonville beat the Broncos in Denver last season but will be hard-pressed to turn the trick again this season and have a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball coming into this contest. Still, with Jacksonville keeping the score close I every contest this season, something tells me they will cover the spread here while falling in another heart-breaker.

I like the Broncos to win this contest, but the Jaguars to cover the spread.