May 31, 2013 at 2:48 PM #52256
Qbin Missile CrisisKeymaster
Friday May 31
Petco Park – San Diego, CA
TOR: Chad Jenkins (R)
SD: Jason Marquis (R)
Moneyline: San Diego -125, Toronto +115
Toronto is still scuffling but split their home and home 4 game series against Atlanta. The bats seem to have come alive and there are many sources of power in that lineup but the pitching is in shambles right now – both due to injury and ineffectiveness. There are a lot of guys shuttling between Buffalo and the Big Club that are being forced into roles they shouldn’t and the 11 runs they gave up to Atlanta yesterday isn’t helping any. Still this club can be good enough offensively to win, certainly against a team built like San Diego.
The Jays have had trouble keeping the arms on the staff healthy which is why we are seeing Chad Jenkins on the hill Friday night. Jenkins is a mediocre prospect who has survived at the Major League level despite mediocre peripherals – and I might be sugar coating it. The Jays may have won both of his starts this season but it certainly isn’t because of his 1.90 WHIP. Jenkins is just too hittable and strikes out few so I am not sure how much longer Lady Luck will be by his side.
Like the Blue Jays the Padres are coming off a split series against Seattle. They also lost yesterday as they were unable to crack King Felix Hernandez of the Mariners. King or no King this team is lacking pop but they do have speed as evidenced by their league leading 41 steals. They are hanging around in the National League West standings right now and are lucky to be catching Toronto at a time when they are really struggling or else this might be a big mismatch series.
I generally rag on Padres starter Jason Marquis but you can’t argue with the results he is getting this season. His 6 wins already match his total from last season and he seems to have a knack for getting himself out of trouble – which happens a lot when you walk as many guys as you strikeout (nearly). Despite pitching in a great park for hurlers his numbers are pretty similar home and road and he may be able to get the free swinging Jays to get overly agressive.
Love the value on the Jays as the underdog in this one. Jenkins certainly ain’t great but against the Padres in that park he has a lot of margin for error. Meanwhile Marquis will need to use every inch of Petco to keep the Jays in the ballpark. Take the underdog to build some roll for the weekend. There could be good values on the Jays throughout the series.
Score Prediction: Toronto 6 – San Diego 4
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