April 18, 2013 at 1:01 AM #51141
Qbin Missile CrisisKeymaster
2013 NBA Betting – Milwaukee Faces Daunting Task In Its Playoff Opener
The Milwaukee Bucks have the worst record of any playoff team. The Miami Heat have the best record of any playoff team. Can Milwaukee create some drama in Game 1 of this series?
Eastern Conference First Round, Game 1:
(8) Milwaukee Bucks @ (1) Miami Heat – Date To Be Announced
Online sports betting line: no line
Why Milwaukee Will Win
The overview of the upcoming NBA weekend should include a look at this contest between the Bucks and the Heat. Miami will be the favorite in a survey of betonline reviews, but Milwaukee has a puncher’s chance because it has two guys who can light up the scoreboard. Brandon Jennings isn’t tall, but he is very quick and can get on a hot streak. If he can find the hot hand for a six- or seven-minute stretch in the first half, he can draw attention from the rest of Miami’s defense, to the point that the Heat might hedge at the top of the key and commit more bodies to Jennings than they’d like. If Jennings can distort the shape of Miami’s defense in such a fashion, Monta Ellis will then be able to get more – and better – opportunities to score at the two-guard spot. Milwaukee can spread the court and get the kind of spacing it wants in its halfcourt sets. The Bucks might have a tough time stopping LeBron James when playing defense, but if they can score at a high rate, they can win a racehorse-style contest and force the Heat to shoot over 55 percent in order to win. The talent of Milwaukee’s guards can carry the Bucks more than some experts might think.
Why Miami Will Win
No matter what kind of bookmaker software you use, the premier sportsbetting outlets in the country would not dare take Milwaukee in this game. The Bucks – who will obviously have to come up with something special to merely push the Heat, let alone beat the defending NBA champions – are not only a losing team. Milwaukee didn’t even manage to win 40 games this season, marking the Bucks as a below-average squad within the larger context of professional basketball. The top two non-playoff teams in the Western Conference would rate as better teams than the Bucks, making Milwaukee the 18th-best team in the NBA this season. Milwaukee just doesn’t have much of any defense. It cannot play with the physicality or ruggedness that define legitimate playoff threats. Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis can score, and J.J. Redick can knock down open jump shots with a relatively small amount of space, but there’s not much else the Bucks can use – or do – to thwart a formidable opponent. One must realize in particular that Miami’s foremost defensive strength is its ability to deny driving and passing lanes on the wings, since LeBron James and Dwyane Wade own such large wingspans and are great rotating defenders who are masterful at help-and-recover plays. Jennings and Ellis are going to have a very tough time getting free shooting hands and finding the open spaces that will enable them to get quality looks at the basket.
Who Will Win
It’s simply hard to see how Milwaukee’s offense will be able to play as well as it needs to in order to win. Miami’s length on the wings should be disruptive enough to contain the Bucks.
NBA Betting Pick: Miami
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