February 7, 2014 at 9:48 PM #53167
Qbin Missile CrisisKeymaster
Gonzaga Bulldogs (21-3) vs. Memphis Tigers (17-5)
Saturday February 8
FedEx Forum – Memphis, TN
Moneyline: No moneyline currently listed
Spread: Memphis -4.5
O/U: No totaly currenlty listed
Gonzaga is in their usual spot atop the West Coast Conference standings. It looks like they are a shoe in for a March bid but this is still an exciting game because it could have a lot to do with seeding. The Zags probably do not have as much at stake in this one as Memphis but I love the way they schedule. This should be a very good game between two top programs. Its fun they have a history.
Gonzaga is 5-1 ATS in true road games this season thanks to an experienced backcourt. Lately they have been going with three guards by moving David Stockton in the lineup which enabled Kevin Pangos, their best scorer to play off the ball more. They still have more than enough size up front though with 6’9” Sam Dower and 7’1” beast Przemek Karnowski. In league this lineup has been a winning combination so I am curious to see how it holds up against Memphis.
For me betting a team on the road without good guards is a no go. Gonazaga is 4-2 ATS this season on the road and I think they can press Memphis all the way to the final minutes and even win. Look for a number over a possession and (+4) or better and play it accordingly. They don’t have a signature win yet and they usually get one of those per season.
Memphis has enjoyed a pretty good season but it seems like the stiffer the competition the less roar we get out of the Tigers. For their confidence and their potential Tourney seeding they need to get a win on their home floor Saturday night. These teams actually have a nice recent history with 6 games since 2005. In four of those the visitor won the game, three times as the underdog.
The Tigers are no slouch in the backcourt either. Their guards may be a little more flashy and athletic but in Joe Jackson and Micheal Dixon they have two players who have been involved in lots of big games. If the backcourts wind up cancelling each other out than it will come down to the forwards. Shaq Goodwin has made some big strides as a sophomore but he might find it difficult against the length of the Zags
Memphis is coming off a win and cover against Rutgers but this team is just 4-5 ATS at home this season. Both of these teams are capablee of winning but given the series history I think the value is more with the underdog Gonzaga. If you like Memphis hope the number comes down a bit before making your play…
Spread Pick: Gonzaga +4.5
O/U Pick: N/A
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 71 – Memphis 70
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