June 13, 2013 at 2:18 PM #52341
Qbin Missile CrisisKeymaster
Boston Red Sox (41-26) vs Baltimore Orioles (37-29)
Thursday June 13
Oriole Park at Camden Yards – Baltimore, MD
BOS: Felix Doubront (L)
BAL: Kevin Gausman (R)
Moneyline: Baltimore -105, Boston -103
The Boston Red Sox won their final game of their series against Tampa to extend their lead in the American League East. They have the most wins in the American League right now but the third place Baltimore Orioles are not that far behind them. One of the reasons the Red Sox have been so successful this year is that they play really well on the road. In fact they have a better record on the road than the Orioles do at home. This is just the second series between these two teams this season – Baltimore took 2 of 3 at Boston back in April
When Boston lefty Felix Doubront takes the mound you don’t necessarily count on a clean outing. He walks too many guys for sure but if you ignore his overall ERA you see that he gives up 3ER or less in more than 80% of his starts. When you look at Doubront’s career numbers against the Orioles you see dominating figures in terms of all the peripherals even though he has never actually beaten Baltimore (0-2 lifetime). That could all change on Thursday night.
I think I am like most in expecting the Baltimore Orioles to fall apart at the seams eventually. I mean can having the top home run hitter in the Majors really be enough to sustain a team that has little starting pitching, a bullpen that is showing some weakness and a lineup that is not exactly laden with superstars? So far so good though and this series with Boston could improve their position even more so…or it could be the beginning of the end.
There is no doubting that the Orioles are desperate for quality starting pitching this year. That is why they called up one of their top prospects righty Kevin Gausman. Unfortunately, Gausman has been mostly a disaster with just one good outing out of 4 in the Majors. Twice he has given up 7ER without even making it through 5 innings, most recently against a Tampa team that hardly has the most fearsome lineup. If they weren’t so desperate they probably would have sent the rookie back down for more seasoning. The question is whether we can play that to our advantage as handicappers.
O/U Pick: Under
Score Prediction: Boston 5 – Baltimore 4
I think the only play in this one is Boston or a pass. As I mentioned above Doubront generally gives the Sox a chance to win while Gausman is just too much of a wild card. Sure the talent is there but I would let him to continue to get roughed up on someone else’s dime then play him against a weaker opponent and less important spot.
There is no doubt the O’s need him but that doesn’t mean that you do.
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