June 4, 2013 at 10:48 PM #52285
Qbin Missile CrisisKeymaster
2013 FedEx St. Jude Classic
Location: Memphis, Tennessee, United States
Course: TPC at Southwind
Date: Jun 6-9, 2013
Total Purse: US $ 5,600,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,080,000 (19% of total purse)
Defending Champion: Dustin Johnson ($1,008,000)
The last stop before the US Open goes down this Week at the FedEx St. Jude Classic in Memphis, Tennessee. TPC Southwind played as the most difficult par 70 of 13 in non-majors last year – although it may not present the problems that the Open will next week, this course is plenty difficult.
Hitting the fairways and the greens for that matter were certainly an issue last year and they will likely be this week as well. Distance off the tee has been the key here interestingly – long hitters like Lee Westwood, Harrison Frazar and Dustin Johnson have won the last three years while Robert Karlsson, a two time runner up and Robert Garrigus are also known for their distance off the tee.
Here is a look at some of the names to watch this week and what could play out 1 week before the second major.
Phil Mickelson 14/1
Phil will be using this week as a tune up but he hasn’t fared all that well in his two previous appearances in this event. He is coming off a missed cut at the PLAYERS after a third the week before. If you can figure this guy out – good luck! Until I see at least a little consistency, I opt to stay away!
Brandt Snedeker 14/1
Has six top 10s this year and has made the cut here five of six times with a T15 in 2011 and a T5 in ’07. He is a local guy that enters this week 10th in fairways hit, 11th in GIR, 18th in strokes gained-putting, 11th in adjusted scoring and first in par-4 scoring – perfect traits for this track. He did miss the cut last week but had top eights in two of his three starts before that dating back to the Masters. I love Sneds game and he is due to break out.
Dustin Johnson 18/1
To me, Johnson is a lot like Phil Mickelson – all over the map and very difficult to figure out. But he is the defending champion here on a track that rewards length off the tee. He has been withdrawing from tournament due to chronic back issues – there is no way to tell how healthy he is going into this week.
Ryan Palmer 25/1
Finished T14 at Colonial and has three top 15s in his last six starts. His history here is maddeningly inconsistent – making two of five cuts with both going with two top 10s – T3 last year and T10. In a slightly watered down field Palmer should be on your radar.
Scott Stallings 28/1
Stallings enters in some terrific form – two straight T4s. He’s only played here twice, missing the cut and sharing 25th in 2011. He is a pretty consistent player – no glaring weaknesses – he ranks 37th in the all-around. There is nobody else in the field this week that enters in better form – Stallings in turn is an intriguing 28/1.
Charles Howell III 28/1
Howell has quietly put together a strong season – a T10 at the Wells Fargo, T17 at the Byron Nelson and T21 at the Memorial are among nine top 25s on TOUR this year. He has made 4 of 6 cuts in this event – the best being a T3 in 2011 to go along with another top 10 in 2004. He sits twelfth on TOUR in strokes gained-putting, fifth in scrambling, 14th in adjusted scoring and T4 in par-4 scoring – great attributes for this track!
Boo Weekley 33/1
Won the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial and is 5-for-7 at TPC Southwind with a T4 in 2008. He is currently 17th in fairways hit and fourth in greens in regulation on TOUR and enters in decent form.
Tim Clark 33/1
Finished T7 at Colonial – his third top 25 in his last four starts. He has made four of five cuts here but has just one top 25 – as mentioned earlier; distance off the tee is rewarded here. He is third in fairways hit, 49th in strokes gained-putting, 18th in scrambling and 32nd in adjusted scoring on TOUR but his lack of power off the tee may be his downfall this week.
Robert Karlsson 33/1
Not all that attractive until you take a look at his history on this track – two straight runner-up finishes in 2010 and 2011. He tied for fourth at the Wells Fargo about a month ago, and then played OK before a final-round 76 eventually dropped him down to a share of 34th at the Memorial. If history on this track is what you’re looking for then Karlsson is you man!
Russell Henley 33/1
This year he won at the Sony Open, tied for sixth at the RBC Heritage and was T13 at The Honda. He is coming off a T6 at the Memorial but makes his first start in this event. He is 34th in fairways hit on TOUR, 10th in strokes gained-putting, 31st in adjusted scoring and T12 in par-4 scoring average. I would love to see Henley at 50/1 but he’s still worth a look at 33/1.
(50/1 and higher)
John Rollins 50/1
Had a T21 at the Byron Nelson and a T4 at Colonial and now has nine top 25s among 11 cuts made in 2013. He also has two top 25s in his last three visits to TPC Southwind. Rollins currently ranks tenth on TOUR in greens hit and 33rd in adjusted scoring – he could emerge this week.
Freddie Jacobson 50/1
Enters this week having made 10 consecutive cuts with three top 10s, another five top 25s. He has played this event 10 times and he made the cut nine times and finished inside the top 25 on half of his attempts with three top 10s. He is 21st on TOUR in strokes gained-putting, 13th in scrambling fourth in adjusted scoring and T4 in par-4 scoring – great traits for this track.
The obvious pick here to me is Brandt Snedeker at 14/1. He is a local guy looking to ramp up for the US Open next week. His game also suits this track very well.
Further down the line I like Scott Stallings at 28/1. He is coming off consecutive top 4s and has the distance as well as the3 all around game to make some noise this week.
My sleeper is Freddie Jacobson at 50/1. He has been good at this tournament and enters this year playing arguably the most consistent golf of his career.
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