Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

Go against playoff dogs with great ATS margin is 63.1 percent. Playoff favorites do well, but when trailing in a series even better as far as ROI at 19.1. 

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game are 550-383-14. Bounceback angle is 460-343-9. Teams loss as a favorite are 95-53.

DunksAndThrees has Spurs winning. Playoff teams off loss as a favorite are 255-170-6. Another bounceback angle is 459-343-9 in the playoffs for team with winning percentage above .600. There are some versions of both angles in which the ROI is 27.3 percent for bounceback and 22.1 percent if off loss as a favorite.

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️5-star Wise Guy Best Bet

DunksAndThrees has this as a 9-point game. Favorites with 16 or more losses if previous series meeting was at home is up 228.40, including 56.6 percent if they lost. In the postseason, it’s 100-62-2 for 61.7 percent. Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 550-382-14. Fade dogs with great records is 772-577-34.  Large playoff favorites to hot teams are 35-12-2. 

We have contrarian indexes worldwide: offshore, Vegas, all US states where betting is rightfully legal, and still substantial “outlaw” intel from other states. This as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide. Public underdogs are particularly big fades.

Bounceback angle is 458-342-9. One that is off a blowout loss and a favorite today is 102-55-2. DunksAndThrees has Thunder -7.

Teams coming off a loss in which there were at least eight lead changes bounce back at 1149-926-31. It’s a stunning 45-23 in playoffs. Many other bounceback angles led by playoff teams off loss as a favorite are 254-169-6.

As you know, favorites generally do well in playoffs, but much colder favorites are 93-42-1. A few bounceback angles apply too. Favorites down 2-0 is nearly a 60 percent bet.

Bouneback angle that wins is 457-338-9.

Tons of angles including fading big dogs with great records is 771-577 with similar postseason results. Playoff bounceback off loss as a favorite is 80-39-1. DunksAndThrees has us winning by 11. 

Fade big dogs with great records 770-576-34. It has similar regular season and playoff winning percentages. Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game are 358-246-5. Much more rested team in postseason is 20-9.

Fade big dogs with great records 770-575-34. It has similar regular season and playoff winning percentages. Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game are 358-245-5. Much more rested team in postseason is 20-8. DunksAndThrees has this a 10-point game. -6.5 -110 is as high as you should bet and better numbers widely available at release time. 

Playoff teams off rout win are 48-15-1. Game 6 teams trying to close out as big away favorites are 71-32 for 68.9 percent.

Playoff away dogs with better winning percentage under specific situations that apply in this game are 23-11. Bounceback of playoff teams off loss as a favorite is 78-39-1. DunksAndThrees has Detroit winning. Bet to +4 -110.

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️5-star Wise Guy Best Bet

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 547-381-14. Playoff bounceback angle is 154-105-3. DunksAndThrees has us winning by 7. My top organic capper who I monitor has been doing mostly prop bets, but this is a rare case of him unloading on a side, the same side as us, so upgraded to a 5*.

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 546-381-14. Quality large home faves in playoffs off a loss under specific situations that apply in this game is 116-56-3.

Large away favorites in revenge that don’t have a horrible delta points allowed are up 205.10 units. It’s even better in postseason at 69.2 percent and 32.2 ROI. Massive away favorites in the postseason are 20-6. Playoff momentum angle is 156-90-3.

Playoff bounceback angle is 453-336-9. Playoff dog with much better record than their opponent under specific situations that apply in this game are 23-10. It’s even better Game 4 or later. DunksAndThrees has Detroit winning by two, a substantial edge by their projections.

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 355-244-5. Bounceback  angle is 452-336-9. Fairly big playoff faves to hot teams are 34-12-1.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1041-737-28. If Embiid is out, we will happily take them getting a few points. 

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️5-star Wise Guy Best Bet

Fade big dogs with great records is 767-575-34. Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game are 543-380-14. DunksAndThrees has this as a 14-point game. Large qualify home favorites off a loss under specific situations that apply in this game are 115-56-3 including a stunning 14-1 run in playoffs since 2007. 

We have contrarian indexes worldwide: offshore, Vegas, all US states where betting is rightfully legal, and still substantial “outlaw” intel from other states. This as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide. Public underdogs are particularly big fades.

My outlaw line is 10.5, so nice corroboration. At more than -10.5 -103 it would drop to a Major. 

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 540-379-14. Fade big dogs with great records is 766-574-34. We have contrarian indexes worldwide: offshore, Vegas, all US states where betting is rightfully legal, and still substantial “outlaw” intel from other states. This as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide. Public underdogs are particularly big fades. -15.5 is as high as I'll go. 

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 540-379-14. DunksAndThrees has Detroit winning by 8. Will do as high is -3.5, -104. 

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 540-379-14. Fading big dogs with great records is 766-574-34 for +134.6 units. Both of my best outlaw lines has -14.5.

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 540-379-14.

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game is 538-379. Bounceback playoff angle is 450-335-9. Teams especially bounceback off loss as a favorite at 78-37-1.

A lot of angles apply, including a bounceback one about big favorites off a loss is 449-335-9. Big faves off consecutive blowout losses are a 70.9 percent prop. Struggling playoff chalk is 32-14. One of my top outlaw lines has -9. DunksAndThree has this an 11 point game.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1040-735-28.

Game 6 teams trying to close out under specific situations that apply in this game are 47-19-1.

Playoff teams off a rout win are 46-15-1. Don't go above -3 -104. 

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 347-237-5. Playoff favorites off consecutive loss as a favorite are 24-9-1. Another larger bounceback angle is 449-331-9. Struggling playoff favorites are 32-12-3. One of my best power lines has this as -11.5

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 347-237-5. Playoff favorites off consecutive loss as a favorite are 24-9-1. Another larger bounceback angle is 449-331-9. Struggling playoff favorites are 32-12-3.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1039-734-28. Fading big dogs with great records is 765-574-34.

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 533-373-14. Teams off playoff loss as a favorite are 76-35-1.

Struggling playoff favorites are 30-12-3. Fading teams off three straight win as an underdog in the same playoff series is 4-1.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1039-734-28.

Several bounceback, zigzag angles if you will apply here. One is 445-326-9 that has to do with many factors such as winning percentage, ATS margin and more. Bounceback if not off blowout loss is 140-84-3. Bet to -2. 

Anti-splits angle in which we go with away favorites despite a much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is 1159-925-27. And yes, it does well in postseason as well. Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 531-370-14. Away favorites in revenge as 1281-1017-41. In playoffs, same playoff series revenge is 60.8. Bet to -2.5. 

Favorites with 16 losses if previous meeting was at home is up 213.80 units and yes the winning percentage is several percentage points better in postseason. Teams rally around a key injury short-term, even in postseason and the odds have more than adjusted to Wemby’s injury. Bet to -3.5. 

Fade big dogs with great records is 765-573-34. It holds up in playoffs even down 2-0.. Struggling playoff favorites are 30-11. Bounceback angle in playoffs, teams off loss as a favorite are 74-31. I like to 10.5. 

Away favorites in revenge is up 162.30 units and nearly 60 percent in playoffs.

Bounceback angle for teams off a loss as a favorite in the playoffs is 74-31-1.

NBA bounceback has been very strong since 2021 at 138-82-3 under specific situations that apply in this game. DunksAndThrees has Toronto winning by a point.

Bounceback angle for teams off a loss as a favorite in the playoffs is 74-31-1.

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 531-368-14. Playoff teams off loss as a favorite is 81-39-1. Combined, it’s a 30.4 ROI. Bounceback playoff angle is 137-81-3. Favorites trailing in a series are 126-75-3. 

We have contrarian indexes worldwide: offshore, Vegas, all US states where betting is rightfully legal, and still substantial “outlaw” intel from other states. This as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide. Public underdogs are particularly big fades.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1039-733-28. As away favorites with at least 14 losses, it’s 484-307. Bounceback playoff angle is 137-81-3. Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game are 344-231-5. Bounceback off loss as a favorite is 74-30-1. Much colder favorite or small dog in playoffs is 93-39-1.

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game are 344-231-5

Large high-qualify home favorites off a loss as a favorite under specific situations that apply in this game are 113-56-3. It’s an insane 13-2 in postseason, though only 2-1 if previous game was regular season. Fading hot dogs is 347-241-12, 40-24 postseason, 20-10 game 1.

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 529-366-14. Much more rested team in the NBA postseason is 19-7.

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 529-366-14. Much more rested team in the NBA postseason is 19-7. Large high-qualify home favorites off a loss as a favorite under specific situations that apply in this game are 113-56-3. It’s an insane 13-2 in postseason. Bounceback for favorites off a blowout loss is 101-54-2.

Fading hot dogs is 347-241-12, 40-24 postseason, 20-10 game 1.  Large playoff favorites are 153-97-5.

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️5-star Wise Guy Best Best

However, at -6.5 or higher, it becomes a Major bet, AKA 3*. 

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1039-733-28 and holds up in postseason. When said team is an away favorites with at least 14 losses, it’s 484-307-22. It’s a steady 58.1 percent in the postseason. 

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 529-365-14. Anti-splits angle in which we go with away favorites despite a much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is up 144.80 units. 

Away favorites in playoffs despite worse record is 17-8 for 68 percent. SportsLine has them covering 65% of simulations, winning by an average of 11 points per game. 

We have contrarian indexes worldwide: offshore, Vegas, all US states where betting is rightfully legal, and still substantial “outlaw” intel from other states. This as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide.

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 529-365-14. Dunks and Threes has the Knicks winning by 9. This is also a very strong bet from SportsLine’s projection, with the Knicks covering 65%, very big number for a side for this simulator and winning by an average of 11 points. Wise Guy at -6 or below. If higher, a Major, but above 7, pass. 

Big favorite with at least 16 losses if in same season revenge is 580-426-14 and includes playoffs, even if the revenge is from a regular season loss. Bet to -7. 

We have contrarian indexes worldwide: offshore, Vegas, all US states where betting is rightfully legal, and still substantial “outlaw” intel from other states. This as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide. Public underdogs are particularly big fades.

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game 367-269-7. No higher than 3.5.

The Magic have a better record yet are home underdogs. Anti-splits angle in which we go with away favorites despite a much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is 1129-922-27. It wins regular and postseason. 

Playoff favorite angle under specific situations that apply in this game is 529-365-14. 

SportsLine has us covering 69%, with the Hornets winning by an average of 10 points per game.

My best simulator has the Magic winning by 3. My outlaw has Philly -1, which is not a massive edge, but at a number so close to pick, strong support. Bet to +1.5 but no more than -110. 

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1037-731-28.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1034-728-28.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1034-728-28. Away favorites or small dogs that won previous meeting versus opponent that led by at least 20 points at half of their last game is 66-20 for 76.7 percent.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1033-728-28.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1033-728-28. When said team is also away favorites with at least 14 losses, it’s 481-304-22. 

"Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

Indiana has been unlucky to the run of -4.4, while Brooklyn at .8, a Luck Gap of 5.2.

This is an outsourced pick from the short-list of very entrusted experts. Previously called a competitor consensus, the name was changed to reflect it does not always come from the few quality professionals who sell picks, but also can come from any sharp source. As long as I am not leaning the other way, I will bet a trusted outscource.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1031-728-28. This is a rare case where my outlaw line aligns with intel as too often sharps using similar metrics, burn the line. The official outlaw line is -16.5. Our outlaw line is what the line would be without public perception or square line moves.

Many angles apply here that include the lethal combo of away favorites angry off a loss against a home team fat and happy off a win is 60-33-2 for 64.5 percent.

5-Star⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1028-726-28. Big away favorites from the West in revenge to an Eastern team are 86-31-4.

Good to 11 if -110 or less

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1027-726-28.

5-Star⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Pels are a horrid 25-51 SU, lost five straight, three by 13 or more, so we fade, right? Hold on.

Teams quit myth exploited. Go with bad and struggling teams late in the season is 52-17-1 under specific situations that apply in this game.

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1039-738-29.

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1039-738-29.

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1038-736-29.

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1037-732-29. If said team is an away favorite with at least 14 losses, it’s 473-295-22.

When the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1036-731-29.

Unless otherwise noted, spread moves of more than one-point against us and 2.5 points with totals in college, 3 in the NBA will cancel bets. MLB an 11-cent line move! We use the same metrics as many pro gamblers and syndicates, so it is best to lock in early to beat line moves. 

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1033-728-29.

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1033-728-29.

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1032-727-29. If said team is an away favorite with at least 14 losses, it’s 470-292-22.

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1032-727-29.

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1032-726-29. Unless otherwise specified, if a spread moves at least 1.5 points against us on the line we quote (giving us a worse line), 2.5 with college totals, 3 with NBA totals, the play becomes a pass.

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1032-726-29. Unless otherwise specified, if a spread moves at least 1.5 points against us on the line we quote (giving us a worse line), 2.5 with college totals, 3 with NBA totals, the play becomes a pass.

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1032-726-29. Unless otherwise specified, if a spread moves at least 1.5 points against us on the line we quote (giving us a worse line), 2.5 with college totals, 3 with NBA totals, the play becomes a pass.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1031-724-29.

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1030-722-29. The official outlaw line is Portland -1.5.   Our outlaw line is what the line would be without public perception or square line moves. 

Teams angry off a loss versus opponent off a game with at least 8 lead changes is 1132-908-31. Home favorites that have gone well under cumulatively the last three games is 630-466-19 for +117.40. Combo of the two is 60-25-1 for 70.6 percent and 34.8 ROI. Teams with at least 16 losses in revenge as away favorites is 584-452-16. When combined with the above 8 lead changes angle, it’s 34-16. 

"Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

Lakers are +5.3, while Houston is .7, a Luck Gap of 6 saying Lakers overvalued.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1028-719-29 for an impressive 58.8 percent and 12.3 ROI. The master angle is up 226.20 units at 58.4 percent. When they are at least fairly big away favorites with at least 14 losses are 468-290-22 for 61.7 percent and 17.9 ROI.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1028-719-29 for an impressive 58.8 percent and 12.3 ROI.  The master angle is up 226.20 units at 58.4 percent. When they are at least fairly big away favorites with at least 14 losses are 468-290-22 for 61.7 percent and 17.9 ROI.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1028-719-29 for an impressive 58.8 percent and 12.3 ROI. The master angle is up 226.20 units at 58.4 percent. When they are at least fairly big away favorites with at least 14 losses are 468-290-22 for 61.7 percent and 17.9 ROI.

Turbo version of when the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1027-717-29. 

"Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

Philadelphia has 3.2 more wins than they deserve with Denver at -1.2, a Luck Gap of 4.4. Our contrarian indexes, with worldwide online and brick and mortar sportsbooks, the other has to do with super-square outlaw money, has this as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide. In particular, public dogs generally die.

Big away favorites with at least 12 losses versus opponent fat and happy off a win is 226-132-7 for 63.1 percent, 80.90 units won and 20.5 ROI.

5-Star⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Myth about teams quitting, in fact go with bad and struggling teams late in the season is 52-16-1. "Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

Memphis should have 5.3 more wins, with the Bulls being at 2.1 wins above what they earned. This Luck Gap of 7.4 is substantial. 

The official outlaw line is just +3.5.  Our outlaw line is what the line would be without public perception or square line moves.

When the pointspread is counterintuitive to the points per game margin, go with what the oddsmakers are telling us as at 1024-716-29. Combined with away favorites with at least 14 losses, it’s 467-287-22.

Large away favorites that do not have a terrible delta points allowed are 1304-999-45. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total. Away favorites with at least 16 losses if previous series meeting was at home is 491-313-13. Combined, the winning percentage goes up to 61.9. 

"Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

Golden State deserves 3.6 more wins, while Washington has 2.4 more than they earned, giving us a Luck Gap of 6.

Fade unrested home favorites fat and happy off a win, unless a massive favorite, it 108-42-1. Similar, fading unrested teams off win as an underdog is 45-15.  It’s a solid contrarian bet as well.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1022-714-29 for 58.9 percent.

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️5-star Wise Guy Best Bet

Teams do not quit late in the season. Exploiting one of the many gambling myths, go with a team in a long losing streak late in season is 51-16-1 for a whopping 76.1 percent and 45.3 ROI. 

The official outlaw line is just 10.5  Our outlaw line is what the line would be without public perception or square line moves. Honestly, usually outlaw line cancels out super systems. This is a rare case of system and outlaw line screaming the same bet! 

"Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6.  Memphis should have 5.3 more wins, while Detroit 2.3 more losses, a large Luck Gap of 7.6.

Extra enhanced version of when a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1022-714-29 for 58.9 percent.  If it’s an away favorite with at least 14 losses, it’s a sensational 88-39-5 for a 32.3 ROI.

When a line appears counterintuitive to the points per game margins to date, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on the seemingly contradictory team is 1041-742-32. When it's an away favorite with at least 14 losses 464-286-22. Counterintuitive line if previous meeting was at home is 299-183-8 for 62 percent.

Favorites with 16 losses if previous meeting was at home 489-311-13.