Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

NCAA Tournament teams off consecutive win as an underdogs are 31-13. Fade NCAA Tournament teams off high scoring games for them is 84-56 for 60 percent.

Literally like the earlier game, while my advanced analytics didn’t scream one side, my lean lines up with the top organic sharp whose opinion I fully respect. This is an outsourced pick from the short-list of very entrusted experts. Previously called a competitor consensus, the name was changed to reflect it does not always come from the few quality professionals who sell picks, but also can come from any sharp source. As long as I am not leaning the other way, I will bet a trusted outscource.

This is an outsourced pick from the short-list of very entrusted experts. Previously called a competitor consensus, the name was changed to reflect it does not always come from the few quality professionals who sell picks, but also can come from any sharp source. As long as I am not leaning the other way, I will bet a trusted outscource.

EvanMiya ratings have this line at -10.9, a big edge for this elite simulator. Unless otherwise specified, if a spread moves at least 1.5 points against us on the line we quote (giving us a worse line), 2.5 with college totals, 3 with NBA totals, the play becomes a pass.

Much lower seed in NCAA Tournament is 209-171-7. NCAA Tournament teams off consecutive win as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament are 31-12, including four straight covers.

Unless otherwise noted, spread moves of more than one-point against us and 2.5 points with totals in college, 3 in the NBA will cancel bets. MLB an 11-cent line move! We use the same metrics as many pro gamblers and syndicates, so it is best to lock in early to beat line moves. 

Fade hot underdogs are 133-72-4. EvanMiya power ratings have this at -9.2, a big edge for these metrics.

EvanMiya has this game at -10.8, a big edge for his ratings.

NCAA Tournament teams off consecutive win as an underdogs are 30-12.

Fade hot underdogs system is 133-71-4 in qualifying spots, including 27-18-2 in the NCAA Tournament. Standard line integrity applies—1.5-point adverse movement from the quoted spread results in a pass.

NCAA Tournament teams coming off back-to-back wins as an underdog are 29-12. Standard line integrity applies—if the spread moves 1.5 points or more against the quoted number (worse line), the play is a pass.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1722-1377-23. 

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1722-1377-23. 

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1722-1377-23.  Unless otherwise specified, if a spread moves at least 1.5 points against us on the line we quote (giving us a worse line), 2.5 with college totals, 3 with NBA totals, the play becomes a pass.  Big dogs not in road games are 338-255-7. Much lower seeds are 200-156-7.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1722-1377-23. 

Team with at least five fewer wins, but still a favorite is 32-15 for 68.1 percent and 30 ROI.

Team with at least five fewer wins, but still a favorite is 32-15 for 68.1 percent and 30 ROI.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1722-1377-23.

Team with at least five fewer wins, but still a favorite is 32-15 for 68.1 percent and 30 ROI.

The official outlaw line is 20.5.  Our outlaw line is what the line would be without public perception or square line moves. My second strongest power line has 21.5. KenPom has just 21.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1722-1377-23. 

Team with at least five fewer wins, but still a favorite is 32-15 for 68.1 percent and 30 ROI.

KenPom has this a 16-point game, which is a very big edge for the Huskers. This is especially true since as a general rule of thumb, Pom would lean towards underdogs but this is an outlier. 

NCAA Tournament favorites with substantially fewer wins is 32-15 for 68.1 percent and 30 ROI. Bubble burst angle that has to do with fading teams off losses that ended a long winning streak is 141-98-3, 7-3 in NCAA Tournament.  

"Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

Miami Ohio has 5.1 more wins than they earned. SMU is -1.6 for a Luck Gap of 6.7.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1722-1377-23. Evan Miya has this as just an eight point game.

Fade hot underdogs is 133-71-4 and it very much holds up in the Dance. Teams that had significantly fewer free throws in regular season are undervalued in NCAA Tournament at 168-123-6.

The official outlaw line is 11.5.  Our outlaw line is what the line would be without public perception or square line moves. KenPom has 11. The much less rested tournament dog is 22-9. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate 74 percent, losing by just six.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 651-458-9. Big and bad underdogs are grossly undervalued and cover at 850-683-19. Combo angle is 68.9 percent and has a 31.9 ROI.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 651-458-9.

Teams off blowout wins are great bets unless playing a team that has been a large dog almost all season is 369-245-8.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 650-457-0.

Go against unrested team off OT game under specific situations that apply in this game is 45-18-4.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 650-457-9.

Conference tournament favorites that lost both regular season meetings are 62-34 for 64.6 percent.

Conference tournament favorites that lost both regular season meetings are 62-34 for 64.6 percent.

Conference tournament favorites that lost both regular season meetings are 62-34 for 64.6 percent.

Conference tournament favorites that lost both regular season meetings are 62-34 for 64.6 percent.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1658-1313-23. Large dogs off game in which they blocked at least 5 shots, versus opponent with 15 or fewer wins is 790-589-15, including 60 percent since 2018, 61.6 this season. Combine both and it’s 210-105-1 for 66.7 percent and a stunning 27.3 ROI with +94.5 units.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1658-1313-23. Combined with a delta points allowed angle, it’s 649-456-9 for 58.7 percent and 147.4 ROI.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1658-1313-23. Combined with a delta points allowed angle, it’s 649-456-9 for 58.7 percent and 147.4 ROI.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 647-454-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 647-454-9. Decent edge as one of my strongest power ratings has this at 11.5.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 647-454-9

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 647-454-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 643-451-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 643-451-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 643-451-9. 

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 643-451-9 for nearly 59 percent

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 643-451-9 for nearly 59 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 643-451-9 for nearly 59 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 642-451-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 642-451-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 542-450-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 634-450-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 637-447-9. It’s 108-78 this season for 58.1 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 637-447-9. It’s 108-78 this season for 58.1 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 637-447-9. It’s 108-78 this season for 58.1 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 637-447-9. It’s 108-78 this season for 58.1 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 637-447-9. It’s 108-78 this season for 58.1 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 637-447-9. It’s 108-78 this season for 58.1 percent.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1290-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1290-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1290-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23. Large dogs off a games in which they blocked 5 shots versus opponent with 15 or fewer wins is 790-588-15. Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 482-353-7.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23. . Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 482-353-7.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1631-1286-23.

Big dog playing terribly are undervalued and cover at 667-522-13.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1631-1286-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1629-1285-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1629-1285-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1629-1285-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1629-1285-23. "Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

CMU is -1.3, while Kent is +3.1, making Central Michigan more undervalued by a 4.4 Luck Gap.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1629-1284-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1629-1284-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1627-1282-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 480-352.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275. If not on a road game, it’s 157-87.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 480-352.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275. Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 480-352. 

"Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6.  KC has a Luck Gap undervalued edge of 4.1.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1622-1273-23. Includes updated record.

Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 480-350-7. "Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

KC is -1.9, with North Dakota at +2.2 making KC undervalued by a Luck Gap margin of 4.1.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1619-1270-23. 

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1619-1270-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1619-1270-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1619-1270-23. 

"Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

FIU is -1.2 to Liberty at +3.9, a Luck Gap of 5.8 making FIU very undervalued here!

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1619-1270-23. Struggling dogs in revenge of a blowout loss is 299-222-7.

Big and bad underdogs not in a true road game are grossly undervalued and cover at 156-87-3.