Cappers Sports Picks

(3 Unit Play on Brewers ML) The Milwaukee Brewers are playing great baseball right now. Michael McGreevy has found a way to get outs this year for the Cardinals, but he is in the bottom 10% of pitchers according to Baseball Savant in expected batting average and expected ERA. McGreevy is likely due for some regression.

Kyle Harrison is excellent. He had one really bad start in Las Vegas and that has pulled his season to date numbers down a bit, but he has been consistently very good. The Cardinals have cooled off of late, and the Brewers have a better road record than home record.

Take Milwaukee. 

(3 Unit Play on Marlins ML) Woo is expected to start for the Mariners and his home/road splits are as drastic as you will ever see. Woo on the road just isn't very good. This Marlins team was overlooked for a long time, but it is time to give them their due. This young lineup has really put things together. The bullpen has been excellent all season.

The Mariners offense is shorthanded, and they just aren't very good right now. Max Meyer gets the start for the Marlins, and his stuff is top notch. The curveball gets a lot of love, but his command of his fastball has really improved. 

Bet the Marlins. 

(3 Unit Play on Twins ML) The New York Yankees offense isn't any good right now. They are still being given too much respect by the oddsmakers. Joe Ryan is a really good starting pitcher. Ryan has excellent long term numbers against the Yankees, and that was against Yankees teams with a much more dangerous lineup.

Byron Buxton is back and this Twins lineup has been swinging the bat really well. I'll happily take the underdog. Take Minnesota. 

(3 Unit Play Under) Nolan Mclean has elite stuff. His breaking pitches move as much as any pitch in the majors. The Atlanta Braves offense was great early in the season, but they are banged up now and they have been ice cold. Drake Baldwin is struggling in a big way. Atlanta isn't the same without Acuna. 

Martin Perez continues to find a way to get outs in his crafty way. The Mets offense can't be trusted to be consistently stringing together hits.

Under the total. 

3-unit play.

We like the home team to keep this game close with an opportunity to win it outright, and Michael Wacha has been one of KC's most consistent starters. He has pitched really well at home this season. Philadelphia has been inconsistent with their batting lineup and Wacha should be able to keep KC in this game with a chance for the Royals to win it late. Should be a little extra motivation on the KC side today, but we will take the +1.5 as this could end up in a one run game either way. 

3-unit play. 

The Rays have seen six of their last seven games stay under the posted total and now we are getting a pretty decent matchup on the bump with Drew Rasmussen who has pitched excellent baseball six starts in a row. He has only allowed three earned over his last 33 innings pitched while striking out 39 and walking just four. 

Hunter Brown has also been excellent this season with just five earned runs given up over five starts all season. We should get a ton of ground balls here and both pitchers can also wrack up the strikeouts in a hurry. The TB offense has struggled producing and they have leaned in on their pitching to keep them in games this year. We like the under. 

3-unit play.

I like the pitching matchup here as we get Braxton Ashcraft squaring off against Zack Littell. Both have had decent outings over the last 30 days and should fare well here today. I like the early start time getting this one in before it gets really hot out there and we re getting a small breeze blowing in. 

Ashcraft has allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts while showing excellent command, limiting the walks and striking out 115 batters in 102.2 innings. Zack Littell has also been productive in back to back starts while showing an effective strikeout pitch. Both of these teams strike out a ton at the plate so expect the damage to be minimal given up by these pitchers, and this one should finish just under the total. 

(3 Unit Play on Dodgers -1.5) The LA Dodgers have hit their stride of late. They are 8-2 in their last 10. They are running away with the NL West. The Padres are just .500 on the season at 43-43. San Diego's offense has been very weak in recent weeks. They now face one of the best pitchers in baseball. 

Michael King is a pretty good pitcher, but the Dodgers lineup has hit him very hard. Even the Padres bullpen has been letting them down of late. 

The run line is the best value. Bet LA -1.5. 

(3 Unit Play Over) Zac Gallen is getting crushed on a regular basis. Gallen has a 6.15 ERA and his expected ERA is 6.17. He isn't getting unlucky. The advanced metrics look awful across the board. Gallen was a strong pitcher a few short years ago, but he has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.

McDonald hasn't been throwing it very well, and Arizona hits the ball well at home. 

The Giants bullpen is a big weakness and the Arizona bullpen is no better than mediocre. 

I think this game could get very high scoring. 

Bet the over. 

(3 Unit Play Over) The Washington Nationals bullpen is the worst in baseball. Alvarez isn't a bad pitcher, but he averages throwing about four innings. The Nationals bullpen for 4 or 5 innings is a great thing for the over. Boston getting Gonzalez back is a big boost to their offense against left handed pitching.

Tolle is a good lefty, but the Nationals are easily first in the majors this year against left handed pitching. Washington should be able to scratch across a few runs.

The Fenway Park weather looks very helpful with winds blowing out pretty heavily.

Over the total. 

(3 Unit Play Over) The Washington Nationals are the best team in the majors against left handed pitching. This Nationals lineup can really hit for power, and they have crushed lefties all season long. Early is a decent lefty, but he's pitching in Fenway with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out.

Cavalli is a middle of the road right handed pitcher. These will be some of the toughest conditions he has pitched in this season. Cavalli does give up the long ball at a relatively high rate. The Nationals bullpen is absolutely awful. The Red Sox will get chances late here too.

Bet the over. 

(3 Unit Play on Brewers ML) The Milwaukee Brewers have owned the Cincinnati Reds. Milwaukee is 21-9 in the last 30 games against Cincinnati. Many of those games have been close, but the Brewers find ways to beat the Reds time after time.

Cincinnati's bullpen is one of the worst in baseball. Milwaukee has a solid bullpen. The Reds lineup is significantly worse than the Brewers lineup. Milwaukee has been especially good against left handed pitching. 

Lodolo has been inconsistent this year, and this is a good price to back the home team that is better in many areas.

Bet Milwaukee. 

3-unit play.

The Braves should start to show some urgency at the dish after getting blanked yesterday, and I think positive regression is in store for Atlanta today. I love that we get Chris Sale on the mound today, and he has pitched really quite well this season with 99 K's and a 2.14 ERA. I believe ATL gets the win today, and the price fits within the parameters for a play. Despite the current slump, the Braves are a much better team with the petter pitching situation today.

3-unit play. 

We actually have a good pitching matchup today between Chase Burns and Jared Jones. Burns is 9-1 and has gone 12 straight starts with allowing 2 earned runs or less, while displaying excellent command. We should see the strikeouts pile up today against Pittsburgh, and I would expect minimal tough pitching jams in the first 6 innings of this one. 

Jones has pitched really well in three of his last four outings, save for a tough one against the A's. He has also shown great command, can get the ground ball, and strikes batters out at a high rate. I expect this one to be lower scoring and come down to the late innings. 

Both of these teams strike out at a rate that is bottom five in all of baseball, with middling power numbers, this one should stay under. 

3-unit play.

This is one the Yankees need to stop the recent slide, and they do have a superior lineup squaring off against one of the worst teams in the MLB. Gerrit Cole has pitched really well but he was shelled his last time out against Detroit. I would expect him to bounce back from the rough outing here against a Boston lineup lacking power. 

The Yankees will have opportunities against Jake Bennett, who has pitched well the last two times out against significantly weaker lineups. NYY should win this game. 

(3 Unit Play on Rays ML) The Arizona Diamondbacks have drastic splits. They are much better against left handed pitching. Nick Martinez isn't a great pitcher by any means,  but he does keep the ball on the ground and in the park at a high rate. 

Zac Gallen has been absolutely crushed all season. He has some of the worst advanced metrics this year. He is allowing very hard contact, and he is putting way too many guys on base.

Tampa Bay has been very good at home in recent seasons and this is a fair price. 

Bet the Rays. 

3-unit play

I really like the pitching matchup here with Cal Quantrill getting the start here tonight. Quantrill has shown some decent command while pitching out of the pen and pitches well to contact. Miami has a below average power lineup in MLB and I feel they could struggle here with several lazy pop-ups. The Marlins have only covered the RL three times over their last 10 games, and I think this game has an excellent chance to come down to the final innings. We will grab the +1.5.

(3 Unit Play Under) The Chicago White Sox offense has cooled off in a big way of late. They had been carrying a high batting average on balls in play and regression has hit for Chicago. They aren't a bad lineup, but I do believe their season to date numbers are still a bit inflated.

The Cleveland lineup is without their top two hitters. The Guardians were one of the worst lineups even when at full strength, and now they are right at the bottom of the pack.

Both Anthony Kay and Gavin Williams have been busy facing some of the best lineups in the majors, and their opponents in this game are a huge step down in competition. I like both of these young pitchers.

Bet the under. 

(3 Unit Play Over) Zac Gallen and Taj Bradley have both been absolutely crushed in recent weeks. 

Minnesota's offense has been the hottest lineup in the majors in the last few days. This team is hitting for power of late. The Twins should get a bunch of chances against Gallen and a wounded DBacks bullpen.

Bradley is a swing and miss guy, but he often struggles to pitch deep into the game. The Twins bullpen cannot be trusted.

Both teams should be contributing nicely. 

Over. 

(3 Unit Play Over) The weather in Philadelphia should be helpful here. The warm weather in the upper 80's with winds blowing out at 12-14 mph toward right field is clearly a positive for a run scoring environment.

Sean Manaea has been blasted by this Phillies lineup. He has allowed a weighted on base average of a whopping .376 to the Phillies. 

Aaron Nola has been crushed by the Mets lineup too. Nola has allowed a wOBA of .360 in 113 plate appearances. 

Nola has struggled this year in general and he gives up too many home run balls. 

These bullpens are both taxed.

Bet the over. 

3-unit play

The Braves have a distinct pitching matchup advantage tonight with JR Ritchie on the mound. He has pitched really well all season with the exception of one start, but I like him to get deep into the late innings of this one while limiting the potency of the SF lineup. SF has scored 3 or less runs in six of 9 overall and the Braves have a much more potent lineup. Ill be really interested to see how quickly they can get to Carson Whisenhunt tonight. I would imagine he is uncomfortable and that the Braves put up a big offensive number here. 

(3 Unit Play Over) Brady Singer has been prone to giving up big innings this year. He hasn't had good command of his breaking pitches. The Mets lineup is better than they have shown lately, and this Reds bullpen is the worst in baseball right now. New York will get scoring chances throughout this game.

Senga has had an injury shortened season, and he just hasn't looked good at all. The Reds broke out on offense last night. Suarez is a key part of this offense, and he hit two homers last night. This is still a hitter friendly park, and Senga should have a tough time in this outing.

The bullpens should send this one over.

Bet the over. 

(3 Unit Play Nationals ML) The Washington Nationals are first in the majors in runs per game this season. They are on fire of late, and I see no reason to expect them to slow down against Mitch Spence and the Kansas City Royals. 

Washington's young lineup has a bunch of power and just enough speed. The Nationals have been doubted all season long, but they keep proving themselves. 

Kansas City's lineup has been really bad and they are now shorthanded with a couple key contributors out with an injury.

A fair price to lay. Bet Washington. 

3-unit play. 

Casey Legumina gets the start for Tampa today having worked mostly out of the Pen this season squaring off against Grayson Rodriguez who has been inconsistent at times this season. Rodriguez has pitched better in two of the last three starts and I think being at home in the rubber match, Grayson will pitch well enough to register a quality start while giving LAA a chance to win this game. Tampa is 3-8 over its last 11 games covering the -1.5 run line and we think its a coin flip if they even win this game, let alone put up a big offensive number. Grabbing the +1.5 

3-unit play

The Mets lineup has been hot the last month of the season as this team has pulled out of the depths of last place and are now fully in mid-season push form. Manaea is due for some positive regression and he does get the ball in a favorable spot here. The Braves are dealing with some injuries and have cooled off significantly over the last couple of weeks. I want to back this feisty Mets team at home and ride the hot team here. 

(3 Unit Play on DBacks ML) The Arizona Diamondbacks are 4th in the majors in both wOBA and wRC+ against left handed pitching. The DBacks have been really bad against right handed pitching, but they are up against a lefty who has been inconsistent this year. Nick Lodolo has some upside, but he hasn't looked like himself while recovering from an injury.

Rodriguez has been really sharp this season. He doesn't give many free passes. The Reds lineup isn't the same without Elly in the middle of the lineup. 

The Diamondbacks bullpen isn't great, but they are average, and that is a whole lot better than the Cincinnati bullpen. There are too many advantages.

Bet Arizona. 

3-unit play LAD

Justin Wrobleski has been rock solid with a 7-2 record and a 2.62 ERA while displaying elite command and limited hard contact. The pitching matchup favors the Dodgers given the recent inconsistent performances from Pirates starter Mitch Keller. Despite some inconsistent results, the Dodgers lineup is hitting the ball well and should be able to get to Keller before the 4th inning in this one. They have a much better lineup and Wrobleski should have success against the Pirates today and win this rubber match game. We like LAD. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Blue Jays and Phillies have both been inconsistent on offense this year. The Blue Jays bullpen has been above average for the season, and the Phillies bullpen has been the single best in the majors in the last month. 

The two starters here are both high quality. Wheeler has been consistently a great starter for many years, and he does a great job minimizing walks and not allowing hard contact. Dylan Cease is having one of the best seasons of his career this season. These guys both generate a lot of swings and misses. 

This projects as a quick game that stays tight and low scoring. A 3-2 type affair here. 

Bet the under. 

(3 Unit Play on Nats +1.5) The San Francisco played late in Chicago on Sunday Night Baseball. This is unquestionably a difficult spot for the home team. A very late trip home and then host a Washington Nationals team that got in early on Sunday to get ready for this one.

The Giants bullpen has been the worst in the bullpen in recent weeks. Washington's offense has scored the most runs of any team in the majors. They are filled with talented young lefties and lefties have given Logan Webb a ton of trouble recently. 

I think this one stays close throughout. The oddsmakers have made the Giants too big of a favorite.

Take Nationals +1.5.

(3 Unit Play on Rangers ML) Jacob Degrom is still a very good starting pitcher. He isn't the superstar he was a few years ago, but this is still a guy to respect and I think the oddsmakers have set the price too short here. 

Cleveland is a bottom five offense in the majors. The Guardians have been completely shut out many times this season. Cleveland is even worse against right handed pitching. Degrom doesn't give many free passes, and I don't trust the Guardians to string together a bunch of hits.

Cantillo is inconsistent and the Rangers are coming off an embarrassing performance on Saturday. This is a good bounce back spot on Sunday for the home team.

Lay it with Texas. 

(3 Unit Play Under) These are two young pitchers who have been rated very highly by the scouts as they came up through the minors. Noah Cameron pitched really well last year. He started this year poorly, but he has been rounding into form of late. He's up against a Twins lineup that could be without Buxton again in this game. 

Prielipp has had to face some of the best lineups in the majors. He has a 5.26 ERA, but his FIP is an impressive 3.75. His left on base percentage at just 54.7% is extremely low, and this is a pitcher who looks like he will experience positive regression. The Royals are still one of the worst lineups in the majors.

The wind is blowing in from right center field for this one. 

Bet the under. 

(3 Unit Play on Rays ML) The Tampa Bay Rays have Shane McClanahan on the hill here. McClanahan came back from a long term injury, and it took him some time to get things going. Once he did though, McClanahan has been elite in recent weeks. In his last seven starts, he has a 1.22 ERA and his FIP is an impressive 2.30. McClanahan has been back to his old dominating self from a couple years ago.

Tampa Bay hasn't played as well in the last ten days or so, but they are a high quality team and they have a massive pitching advantage in this game. Bachar starts here and Miami's bullpen has been heavily used of late. I don't trust them to quiet the Rays for the full game. 

This price should be in the -165 range. We'll take the road favorites. 

(3 Unit Play on Royals +1.5) The Minnesota Twins aren't a good team. Minnesota is just 3-7 in their last 10 games. They had a hot start to the season, but the team has fallen off badly. I strongly feel that Minnesota's recent play is more indicative of their true level than their early success.

Joe Ryan is a good pitcher, but this price has gotten too expensive. We'll back the Royals here as a price play. Kansas City has been playing with some confidence in the last week, and they are likely to be able to keep this one closer.

Take KC +1.5. 

(3 Unit Play on Mariners ML) The Mariners are one of the hottest offenses in baseball right now. Seattle has better than average lineup depth. They have been awesome away from Seattle in the last couple years. Montero has terrible career numbers against this Seattle lineup as well.

Bryce Miller has been lights out so far this season despite facing some pretty good lineups. The Tigers have hit the ball better of late, but their lineup has just a .228 weighted on base average against Miller in 58 plate appearances. 

Seattle has the better pitcher and the better lineup.

Lay the short price. 

(3 Unit Play) 

We have two of the worst statistical lineups in the MLB squaring off and we get a fairly decent pitching matchup here. Messick has only given up in excess of 3 ER in a game once this season while displaying excellent command with 74 strikeouts. The power numbers arent there for Texas, and they have a below average OBP. 

Kumar Rocker is starting to find his rhythm a bit on the bump, and he has only allowed four earned runs over his last 18.2 innings pitched. Cleveland has struggled with timely hitting and I expect more of that again in this matchup. Both offenses are struggling. We think its a pitchers duel here. 

(3 Unit Play) 

I cannot imagine we are going to get a ton of production out of Marlins starter Ryan Gusto in this one, but we should get a ton out of the known commodity in TB's Rasmussen, who has been great with his command and effective with 55 strikeouts. Tampa Bay is the much stronger lineup, and I would expect the pitching to be there tonight for the Rays. I like how Tampa has been playing while Miami has just been up and down. If you factor out Rasmussens last start, he has pitched brilliantly all season. We like Tampa here. 

(3 Unit Play) 

Trey Yesavage just saw the Orioles and pitched pretty well outside of the uncharacteristic 7 walks surrendered. I would expect his command to be better this time around. Baltimore is just middle of the road offensively, So expect a decent outing from the Toronto Starter. There is a renewed sense of urgency in Toronto with the Jays just half a game out of the Wild Card and with a long homestand its time for these guys to make a bit of a move. We think it starts tonight with a home win over Baltimore. 

(3 Unit Play Over) Shota Imanaga has been crushed on a regular basis in recent weeks. He's allowed eight home runs in his last three starts! Now, the wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10-12 mph at Wrigley Field for this start. The A's have more power bats in their lineup than most people realize. I think they'll hit it well.

The Cubs lineup went through a big slump, but they have started to show signs of life lately. The A's bullpen is below average.

The weather matters more at Wrigley Field than anywhere else. Look for this one to be high scoring throughout.

We're on the over. 

3-unit play

NYY have Gerrit Cole on the bump today going up against a Cleveland lineup that struggles to hit for power and average. He should be able to have success early in the count here and get the strikeout pitch rolling here against Cleveland. I expect the Yankees lineup to rebound nicely from a sub-par performance last night, and I expect these guys to put up a big number here in this one. We like NYY to win this game a good majority of the time, so the price is worth it here on the Yanks. 

3- unit play

We really like the pitching matchup here for Miami as Max Meyer squares up against a Nationals lineup, he should have success against. Meyer was roughed up in his last start against the Mets but has pitched well this season striking out 74 while allowing just 48 hits. He has really been able to avoid giving up the long ball, and I think we see him get deep into the game here in this one while limiting the damage given up. 

Andrew Alvarez gets the spot-start today and he has not gotten out of the fifth inning in any game this season. I like the Marlins opportunity to get to him early and force the Nats into the bullpen before the fifth inning. Good price here on Miami. 

(3 Unit Play Over) Randy Vasquez struggles with left handed heavy lineups. The Phillies are loaded with quality left handed bats. Vasquez struggled with them at home in San Diego recently. Now, he goes to a more hitter friendly park to take them on once again. 

Aaron Nola still has a high upside, but he has given up huge innings far too often this year. The Padres are far better against right handed pitching than they are against lefties. Look for them to get their chances here. The Phillies bullpen can't be trusted after Nola leaves this game either.

A total of 8 is too low given Nola's weakness this year and Vasquez's inability to get lefties out.

Over the total. 

3-unit play

The Yanks are hot, despite the loss yesterday and I look for them to rebound here today against the A's who have cooled off significantly after a hot start to the season. The pitching matchup favors NYY as Will Warren will be squaring off against Jacob Lopez. The A's lefty Lopez has been roughed up a lot this season, despite a strong start last time out against the Padres. 

This guy has had 89 baserunners in 48 2/3 innings pitched and walks have been an issue, as have allowing 11 home runs. I look for the Yankees lineup to have opportunities with men on base to put up big innings. 

Warren has had much better command having pitched 15 more innings, with only having half the bases on balls allowed and he is great at identifying and delivering the strikeout pitch. I look for the Athletics to struggle today offensively. Good price, I think we see the Yankees win this one. 

3-unit play

The Braves lineup has been hot as these guys have gone 8-3 over their last 11 games, and have a good pitching matchup today against the struggling Reds. 

We like the job Spencer Strider has done having allowed no more than four hits in any start, while striking out 32 batters in 26 innings pitched. He has decent command, and while he has surrendered five home runs over his last two starts, Cincinnati has been struggling so badly at the dish, striking out a ton, and having one of the lowest averages in MLB as a team. 

Atlanta is surging, Cinci is reeling. We like ATL to get the win here today. 

(3 Unit Play on Cleveland ML) The Cleveland Guardians have the starting pitcher edge here with Parker Messick. Messick is still being undervalued by the oddsmakers. Messick has excellent control and has a high whiff rate. The Boston offense has disappointed this year, and I don't trust them against a very good left handed starter. 

Sonny Gray has pretty drastic splits and has been far worse on the road. 

The market has moved the line quite a bit here, and I think this is overdone. I'll lay the smaller price with the home favorite.

Bet Cleveland. 

(3 Unit Play Over) The Nationals have been the best over team in the majors this season. Washington's offense is one of the top five in the majors. Washington also has an atrocious bullpen that has led to a bunch of runs being piled up late in games all season.

Michael King and Foster Griffin are both decent starters, but they aren't the level of starting pitcher I would expect to see with a 7.5 total in a Nationals game. 

Griffin's numbers are solid, but his advanced analytics point toward regression coming. King has been much better at home through his career.

Over the total. 

3-unit play. 

The Phillies have feasted on a ton of bad teams this month. Miami, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Boston, Cincinnati, the list goes on. The Phillies lineup does ok hitting for power but Wrobleski does not give up the long ball, and while he has been roughed up in two of three starts, I think squaring off against this lineup is exactly what he needs to get back to form. 

Philadelphia should be hitting the ball on the dirt frequently here, so quick innings and ground ball outs are expected. If LAD can get to Zack Wheeler and get him out of this game in the 5th or 6th inning, we could see Los Angeles get some good looks against the relievers. 

Philly has 4-5 guys that could be returning today from injury and I expect it to take some time to get everything worked out at the dish. We like LAD to win this one. 

3-unit play

We have two pitchers here that have been absolutely dialed in during the month of May, as Urena has pitched in five starts, throwing 27 innings, allowing just 5 earned runs over that stretch, while allowing just 16 hits. 

On the other side, Nick Martinez has thrown 22 2/3 innings, allowing just three runs while relying on pitches to contact and registering ground ball outs. The Angels should struggle getting guys on base here, and have struck out more than any other team in baseball. Weak grounders and swings and misses are expected here today for Los Angeles. 

Tampa Bay has a weaker lineup and struggles to hit for power. I think we get a pitchers dual here today, and we like the under. 

3-unit play

Cincinnati has struggled this month as the Reds have backslid all the way to 4th place in the NC Central, while Atlanta continues to surge, sitting at 38-19. I love the matchup today with the Bravers going up against Chris Paddack, who has struggled with an 0-6 record and 6.86 ERA this season. Paddack has walked 14 while allowing six home runs and has consistently had baserunners to deal with. The Braves bats broke out yesterday and I think we see the hot hitting continue. 

Grant Homes has been very consistent over his last three starts and I like the matchup here as Cincinnati has a bottom five lineup in hitting for average, and this group strikes out a ton. We like Atlanta to win this game today. 

(3 Unit Play on Braves ML) 

Atlanta is a much stronger team despite the loss yesterday, and we like the pitching matchup with Chris Sale squaring up against Payton Tolle. Sale is 7-1 and has pitched brilliantly in nine of ten starts this season. I would expect the command to be there today and for Sale to pitch deep into the later innings of this one.

Tolle has also pitched well but has been a bit more inconsistent, while squaring off today against a stronger lineup. I would expect ATL to have some big innings here and win this game with their bullpen late. 

3- unit play

NYY have started to figure some things out after a mini 3-game winning streak and I love the matchup tonight against the Royals who have disappointed all season. Gerrit Cole looks to build upon a strong start five days ago where he allowed just two hits, zero runs, and looked really sharp before exiting against the Rays. 

KC counters with Noah Cameron who pitched well against Seattle last time out but had six consecutive poor starts before that. I would expect the Yankees to win this game behind a strong performance from Cole, so we are laying the number here. 

(3 Unit Play on DBacks ML) The Arizona Diamondbacks lineup has a really high upside. The top of the order with Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll is as good as any in the majors. Marte is one of the most underrated hitters in all of baseball. The DBacks are healthier than they were early in the season. It is showing on the field now too. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games. Soroka is putting together a nice comeback season for Arizona too. 

The Giants are flailing. San Francisco is 22-33 on the season. The Giants offense isn't very good, and they no longer have the strong pitching staff to lead the way like they did in past seasons. 

Lay the short price. Diamondbacks. 

(3 Unit Play Under) 

I like the pitching matchup here between Braxton Ashcraft and Jordan Wicks. Ashcraft has pitched very well having a 65:16 strikeout to walk ratio with quality starts in three of his last four starts. The Cubs have been in freefall losing nine in a row and failing to score 4 or more runs in six of seven games. 

Pittsburgh continues to strike out a ton and I do not expect this group to have men on base frequently here against Wicks, who hasnt played too bad in relief. I wouldnt expect him to go deeper than the 4th inning, but Pittsburgh strikes out way too frequently and their offense is just not one to threaten. We like the under here. 

(3 Unit Play Over) The Chicago White Sox offense has caught fire. The White Sox pitching staff isn't any good. The White Sox have played in eight games in their last 12 which have finished with 11 total runs or more. 

Zebby Matthews is a mediocre at best right handed pitcher that has struggled to stay in the big leagues. Anthony Kay has potential, but he has made far too many mistakes in his young career. The Twins do have power in their lineup.

The total here has dipped down to 8, which I think is just too low for these two teams and average or below average starting pitching.

Take the over. 

(3 Unit Play Over) The Chicago White Sox have been absolutely crushing left handed pitching. Chicago ranks top five in offense against left handed pitching for the season, and they have been red hot against lefties in recent weeks. This is an offense that has outperformed all expectations, and they are at their best against mediocre. Robbie Ray is a mediocre left handed pitcher at this stage of his career. 

Schultz has a high upside, but he hasn't been able to put together the consistency on the mound yet. The Giants offense has broken out in recent games. 

This is too low of a total for two offenses hitting it well and two starters with clear question marks.

Bet the over.

3-unit play 

I am still not confident in Milwaukee to be able to have a lot of effectiveness against Sasaki and I do not like the pitching matchup for the Brewers against the LA Dodgers here in this one. Expect Los Angeles to rebound from last nights embarrassing loss and win this game today. 

3-unit play 

I like the Braves pitching matchup here today against the Nationals, and this is one where the hook is important as this could be one that ends up 5-4, but the Braves staff is superior and should be able to control the amount of baserunners Washington has today. I want the under in this matchup. 

3-unit play 

Paul Skenes is going to have little trouble with this Blue Jays lineup that struggles to string its together and execute on the big inning. I would expect at least 9 strikeouts here from him today and for him to pitch into the seventh inning or later. Corbin will match him in a game that I expect to be quick moving through the first five innings, this one has all the makings of an under. 

3-unit play

The Pirates offense continues to strike out at a high rate and the power numbers are just middling in MLB. Kevin Gausman continues to pile up the strikeouts and his command has been on point most of the season as he has surrendered just nine walks. He is not one to surrender the long ball very often, so expect minimal damage done by the Pirates offense here throughout the first seven innings. 
Toronto's offense has struggled as well, regularly scoring less than 4 runs, and I just dont know when we are going to see this team work out of the funk they are currently in at the dish. Bubba Chandler has given up 3 runs or less in three of four starts and in all but two starts overall, while regularly pitching in and out of jams effectively. I think we see another low scoring game between two teams who just cannot find it right now at the plate. under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) Cristopher Sanchez is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Sanchez has a 1.85 ERA, and it is no fluke! He has a fantastic 1.93 FIP this year. He is striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings. I don't think this Cleveland lineup is very good, and Sanchez should have the upper hand.

Gavin Williams has very good stuff, and he is typically good at inducing ground balls. The Phillies offense is very streaky.

The wind in Philadelphia is forecast to be blowing in about 10 mph from right field. That should help the under here too.

Bet the under. 

(3 Unit Play on Rays ML) The Baltimore Orioles have been overrated all season long. The Tampa Bay Rays have been solid all season long. The market just isn't making a big enough adjustment to how good this Tampa Bay team really is right now. Tampa doesn't have any clear weaknesses at this time. 

Baltimore's offense isn't good. The Orioles have Baz on the mound here, and he is a very shaky starter. The bullpen is overworked of late. This is too cheap of a price here on the home team. Tampa Bay is 12-2 vs. the AL East this year. 

Take Tampa Bay. 

(3 Unit Play on Guardians ML) The Cleveland Guardians have a big starting pitching edge with Parker Messick going here against Montero for the Tigers. 

Detroit's season has really turned south in a hurry. The Tigers don't have their star in Skubal. Detroit is overusing the bullpen. The Tigers defense has been poor too.

Cleveland has a deep bullpen and the Guardians have started to hit better of late. Ramirez is coming on and that's a big deal for this lineup.

Bet Cleveland. 

(3 Unit Play on Rockies +1.5) Jose Quintana continues to find new ways to get hitters out. He certainly doesn't have overpowering stuff, but Quintana is good at locating his pitches and getting out of trouble with runners on base. He has thrown the ball really well so far this season.

The Texas Rangers offense has been a huge disappointment. I don't trust them to put up a big number here and outscore the Rockies at Coors Field. 

Gore is a wildly inconsistent pitcher who is capable of getting blasted at any time. This is a tough spot for him. 

Bet Colorado +1.5. 

(3 Unit Play Over) Both teams here have struggled on offense more than expected, but I think this is a good chance for them to get it going. Kansas City is expecting some heavy winds blowing out for this game. Most forecasts are calling for around 20 mph winds with gusts as high as 30 mph blowing out in this one. That can really change a game. 

This would have been a really solid pitching matchup a few years ago, but both pitchers have slipped quite a bit in the last couple seasons. They have been banged up and have lost velocity off their fastball. 

Look for the home run ball to be key here.

Back the over. 

3-unit play 

This last week has been brutal for the Angels who have scored just nine runs in their six losses while being mostly non competitive going back much of the season. I like Roki Sasaki to be able to shut this lineup down and this could be a start where he accumulates the strikeouts against this weak offensive lineup for the Angels. 

LAA is countering with Grayson Rodriguez who has not pitched this season for the Angels but did have successful 2023 and 2024 campaigns with Baltimore. An unfamiliar arm lining up against the Dodgers could go one of two ways, but we think he can hang in there and limit the damage a bit. Our projections had this one at 8.43 runs so getting a full run off market makes this one a play for Info Cash. 

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The situation for the Detroit offense is just so bad right now, as these guys arent hitting for average, the bat pop is off, and they arent hitting home runs right now. This team has scored four or less runs in 10 of the last 11 games, and are in free-fall now in the AL Central. 

Toronto hasnt faired much better offensively as this group is just struggling at the dish right now and is a far cry from the offensive team that was in the World Series last season. We do however like the under here as the pitching matchup should make for quick innings with minimal baserunners today. 

Gausman struggled his last time out but has only surrendered four or more earned runs twice this season and has shown really good command in allowing just nine walks all season. Expect 4-5 strikeouts and a ton of contact, and based on how Detroit has been seeing the ball, lots of outfield activity and easy putouts. Flaherty has been up and down this season but he does pitch to contact and has only allowed five home runs this season. Until Toronto really starts showing some flash at the dish, we will continue to play under in situations like this. 

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Boston has been a mess offensively having scored three runs or less in seven straight games, and we like the pitching matchup here with Grant Holmes going up against Brayan Bello. Bello has struggled with his command and he has given up a ton of hits this season while carrying a 6.46 ERA. He has squared off against many weaker offensive lineups and I would expect the Braves to be able to work some favorable counts and get runners into scoring position frequently. 

Homes has pitched fairly well the last 4-5 starts and we like the opportunity for him to get deeper into the game. The Braves offense has the best hitting average in MLB and they arent waiting around as they have the 2nd most home runs hit in all of baseball. We like them to win the rubber match of this three game series. 

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I dont have faith in the Guardians being this heavy a favorite with the offense struggling and the pitching staff not being dominant. This group gives up too many home runs and extra base hits and the Reds have finally broken out of their cold funk and I like how these guys are swing the bats lately. I think they come out on top here. 

3-unit play write up coming

Two weak offenses, Pittsburgh strikes out at a rate of bottom five in MLB, and both of these teams struggle to generate extra base hits. Philly has a bottom five OPS, struggle to generate walks, and both of these teams are going to struggle to get the offense going today. We like the under here. 

3-unit play both the Tigers and Bluejays offenses are struggling badly to get anything going. Detroit has been in free-fall failing to score four runs or more in nine of the last 10 games. I like the pitching matchup for Toronto, but I cannot find reason to assume that the offense is going to get it rolling. They have been swinging and missing a ton. Under. 

(3 Unit Play on Blue Jays ML) The Toronto Blue Jays start Trey Yesavage here. He didn't have good numbers in the minors earlier this year as he rehabbed, but he has come up and looked tremendous in the majors in his first three starts. He has great command of multiple pitches. He gets ahead in the count at a high rate. 

The Tigers have had the wind taken out of their sails with the Skubal injury. It doesn't help that their bullpen has been overused, and Madden isn't likely to go deep into the game here either. 

The price is too cheap to pass up.

Bet Toronto. 

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STL has been fairly hot of late and should be feeling pretty good going up against J.T. Ginn who has been very inconsistent over the last 5-6 starts this season. The Cardinals have impressed this season and have been hot of late, I think they are the better team here and the Athletics are tapering off a little bit recently. I want to ride Matthew Liberatore, who has back to back solid outings against the Padres and Dodgers in the month of May. I think STL can win this one, but we will grab the run line here. 

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We have two of the worst offenses in MLB and the Mets are now resorting to starting Christina Scott who hasnt pitched too bad the last couple of outings. Scott has racked up 15 strikeouts while showing decent command. The Mets offense has been awful all season and are going to have to put the ball in play against Framber Valdez who has shown good command and all but two starts have been solid. I would expect a good showing here from both pitchers in a low scoring affair. 

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I am not sure the Pirates should be priced as this heavy a favorite against Colorado with the offense equipped with a bottom five strikeout rate while struggling to hit for power. The Rockies have been much more competitive this season and I like the pitching matchup with Jose Quintana. Jose has thrown the ball really well his last three starts while giving his team a chance to win each of his last three starts. I think grabbing the Run Line is worth a stab here. 

(3 Unit Play Over) Two of the top three or four offenses in baseball meet in this one. Rea has been a mediocre or slightly worse starting pitcher over the course of his career. This is the type of pitcher the Braves have punished all season long. The depth of the Atlanta lineup is likely to be too much for Rea.

Holmes has good basic stats, but his advanced stats show he is likely to regress toward the mean. He has had some easier matchups, but this is a really tough one. 

These bullpens aren't very well rested. The weather should be solid here for scoring.

On the over! 

3-unit play

Detroit has been in freefall lately and now turn to Brenan Hanifee who has played well out of the Pen this season in limited action while pitching to contact. KC who has won 7 of their last 9 games, sees Noah Cameron looking to get back to his early form where he pitched brilliantly against two AL-Central teams in early April. I like the lineup and how KC has been swinging the bats, while Detroit has been cold at the dish and the pitching has been subpar. 

I like the Matchup between two teams that are trending in opposite directions and feel the Royals will continue the winning ways at home in primetime tonight. 

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We like the pitching matchup here between Logan Gilbert and Davis Martin going up against each other. Martin has a 43:8 Strikeout to Walk ratio, while Gilbert has a 43:10 strikeout to walk ratio, and both of these offenses are in the bottom five in MLB in strikeout rate. These offenses have struggled with timely hitting and big innings, while ranking toward the bottom in MLB in extra base hits. I think we see both starters get deep into this one, with this game finishing under the posted total. 

(3 Unit Play on Astros +1.5) The Cincinnati Reds have lost eight straight games. The Reds lost a bunch of close ones, but now they have been blown away in two straight contests. Chase Burns is a talented young starting pitcher, but this line is crazy considering the way Cincinnati has played of late. 

The Astros have a terrific lineup (far better than the Reds), and the Reds bullpen has been worked hard lately while being shorthanded with Pagan hurt.

We'll grab the run line here and we need the Reds to prove it to us before we would want to trust them. The oddsmakers have been far too kind to Cincinnati here.

Back Houston +1.5. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The LA Angels pitching staff has been throwing the ball really well of late. The Angels have seen 7 of their last 8 games stay under this low posted total. 

The Blue Jays have seen 4 straight games go under the posted total. Toronto's offense is clearly way down from a year ago. They also have very poor career stats against Reid Detmers. Detmers has a high swinging strike rate, and he is putting together a nice season.

Dylan Cease is up and down, but he is throwing it very well now. Cease has excellent numbers against this Angels lineup too.

A low scoring tight game.

We're on the under. 

(3 Unit Play on Pirates ML) It's rare to get the Pirates at this price with Paul Skenes on the hill unless they are facing an elite team. Arizona is 17-17 on the season. The DBacks are 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Arizona pitching staff has struggled of late, and their bullpen guys have worked a lot in recent contests.

Skenes had one bad start on opening day, but he has been lock down in general. Skenes has elite command of all his pitches. The Pirates are much improved offensively, and they have solid depth in the bullpen.

Take Pittsburgh on the road here. 

(3 Unit Play on Mariners ML) The Seattle Mariners are favored against an Atlanta Braves team with an excellent record. I think they are favored for a good reason. Martin Perez has regression signs all over his statistics for the season. Perez is a very low strikeout guy who is actually giving up more hard contact this year than he has in the past. 

Bryan Woo has terrific home splits during his career. He has allowed only a .247 weighted on base average in his career when pitching at home. The Braves lineup is a strong one, but Woo has tremendous stuff and I like his chances of pitching well in this one.

We'll take Seattle here. 

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I dont know if we see Taj Bradley get out of the sixth inning and the Twins pen has been shaky at times in recent games. Washington Pitcher Cavalli has struggled with his command this season and has seen a ton of baserunners against him. I look for him to be unable to get into a pitching rhythm in this one. We should see each bullpen early, and I would expect that the Twins lineup to have success. We like a 6-4 type ball game here. 

3-unit play

I like the pitching matchup here for Boston with Jovani Moran going against a depleted Detroit Tigers group. This is a heavy price to pay for the Tigers who have been up and down, while their games have also trended to be lower scoring. I look for this one to be a one-run decision either way, with the Red Sox bullpen getting some good situational work in here against the Tigers. 

(3 Unit Play on Phillies ML) The Philadelphia Phillies aren't as bad as their record indicates. The Phillies still have a good lineup and above average starting pitching. They are 6-4 in their last 10 and are showing clear signs of turning the corner. 

Janson Junk can't be favored against the Phillies and Aaron Nola. Yes Nola is inconsistent, but he is capable of shutting anyone down with his best stuff on any given night. 

The Phillies are too cheap for me to pass up here. 

Bet Philadelphia. 

3-unit play

The Mets lineup has batted just .227 this season and this group struggles to secure extra base hits while also being in the bottom three in MLB in walk-rate. Both staffs have been great at limiting opponent home runs and each staff is top-10 in baseball in team pitching strikeouts. We get a decent pitching matchup with homes and Kochanowicz and these two have allowed a combined four home runs in their starts this season. Expect a slow start, although this one might be a sweaty watch after the 7th inning. I like the price and the number here so we are diving in on the under. 

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Pittsburgh has started to find it a little bit the last couple of games and I like what I have seen from Braxton Ashcraft on the bump despite his poor performance in his last outing, which was the first time all season he had surrendered more than 2 earned runs in a start. No staff in baseball strikes out more batters than Pittsburgh and the Reds are bottom five in MLB in strike out rate. Cincinnati has some bat pop and does well to hit home runs, but the Pirates staff surrenders fewer long balls than anyone in MLB, so I like that as an effective neutralizer today. Taking the better team at this short price. 

3-unit play

I really like what I saw from Trey Yesavage in his first start on Tuesday against Boston. Toronto should be able to get the bats going against the Twins who have one of the worst strike-out staffs in MLB and struggle keeping men off base. Minnesota has been cold the last ten games and I think the cold streak continues. The Twins have been playing like a weak AL-Central ball club that is going to finish toward the bottom of the league standings, and Toronto is starting to come around. This is a good price to back the Blue Jays.