Cappers Sports Picks

I really like what I have seen from the Miami Defensive Line during this CFP playoff run. We have seen the path for the Hurricanes to win games they were not expected to win, and that should carry out here. I would expect Miami to be able to move the football on the ground methodically against this Ole Miss defensive front, but the Rebels actually have a very stout secondary so I do not expect too many big plays through the air for the Hurricanes in this one. 

I do expect the Miami defensive front to make life tough on the Rebels offense. You are not going to line up and run the football on these guys, so the issue becomes Trinidad Chambliss running around and creating plays off script. Miami had 49 sacks and 96 tackles for loss this season and they will be sending the infantry after Chambliss. I do not expect him to be able to consistently wiggle out of it, and I would expect key sacks or negative plays to stall out the Ole Miss scoring chances. 

Miami has an elite level redzone defense and they should be able to step up once the field gets condensed down. I would expect this game to start slow, and finish under this posted total. 

You are not going to get this deep into the FCS playoffs without elite quarterback play, and both teams have that here tonight. Tommy Rittenhouse is going to throw the ball around here a little bit and the Redbirds do have 2-3 capable receivers that can stretch the field. I would assume Illinois State has to throw it around and match Montana State score for score in the second half. 

Illinois State gave up 30 points to Eastern Illinois, 36 against North Alabama, 32 to Murray State, these guys went on an awesome 4-game run but there are chinks in the armor and Montana State will gouge in the run game with Julius Davis and Adam Jones, not to mention quarterback Lamson being able to chip in on the ground. 

Expect fireworks, take high side. 

Navy should be expected to show up here ready to go as we have seen a 20 year pattern of military academies playing very well in bowl games and I love the matchup for the Middies offensively. 

Cincinnati is going to be without a full deck here on defense, as numerous players in the secondary have opted out along with several key players in the defensive front. I cannot expect the Bearcats to secure stops in this one, mostly due to their inability to stop explosive plays. We saw Cinci give up chunk plays all season but it really came to a head during the four game losing streak to close the year. I would expect the PASSING game for Navy to gouge this defense and Navy should put up a ton of points. 

Offensively for Cinci this would have been a fun matchup if their starting quarterback Sorsby was playing but he is not and there are other players that are confirmed to have opted out. This team will look alot different offensively and I would expect Cinci to struggle with consistently stacking positive plays together enough to be able to move the ball. 

This is a hard one to power-rate as the models would suggest a play on Cinci here at full strength, but they are going to be far from full strength and I wonder how motivated this group will be to show up and tackle Navy in the 2nd half. Could get ugly. 

Rice is in major trouble here against Texas State who won their last three games to get to bowl game eligibility but the stats profile a team with 8-9 wins, not 6. Rice is down to a third string quarterback as Chase Jenkins and Drew Devillier have both entered the portal. The Owls offense is not going to be able to hang in there against Texas State's potent offense.

Rice ranks 131st nationally in yards per play, 134th in pass success rate, and when the team gets behind, the offensive game plan goes out the window and these guys have to pass more than they are accustomed to, which is trouble for Rice. These guys do not secure explosive plays, and I do not expect this offensive bunch to operate well with the 3rd string QB.

Defensively, this is a bad matchup for Rice, who cannot cover the pass receivers and will get absolutely zero pressure on Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson, who is an exceptional dual-threat player in the G5. 18 passing TDs, 16 Rushing TDs, going to shred the Owls here. Lay it! 

(3 Unit Play Under) Texas Tech's defense is still underappreciated by many people. David Bailey and company on the defensive front can absolutely dominate. Just ask the Utah Utes offensive line which was among the very best in the nation this year. Texas Tech crushed their offensive line in Salt Lake City this season. Texas Tech is the best run defense in the country. Their pass defense is top five as well. Oregon struggles to cash in on their red zone opportunities and that should make it tough for them to score too many here.

Texas Tech's offense isn't all that good. The Red Raiders rushing attack is mediocre and running the football has been the way to move it against Oregon. The Ducks have an elite secondary. Texas  Tech has been terrible in red zone TD conversion percentage. '

I think both teams settle for field goals in this one. 

We'll go under the total. 

(4 Unit Top Play Under) The Miami Hurricanes defensive line could cause Ohio State some problems here. Julian Sayin and the Buckeyes offense have struggled twice this year (Texas and Indiana). Miami has a very strong defensive line that could get into the backfield here too. 

Ohio State is dead last in tempo out of 136 teams in the country. The Buckeyes are very methodical in going about scoring. Miami is bottom ten tempo wise too. There won't be too many possessions in this game in general.

Ohio State's defense isn't likely to be run on in the way the Texas A&M defense was run on in the second half against Miami last game. The Buckeyes defense is well coached and they have at least one star at every level. I don't trust Carson Beck to be able to move it through the air on them either.

A low scoring game here. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Houston Cougars and LSU Tigers meet in a game where both teams are expected to be missing a lot of key pieces. We've seen a bunch of these smaller bowl games that are just super sloppy in similar spots as this one. 

LSU scored 13 points on a CUSA Western Kentucky defense in the second to last game of the season. The offense isn't likely to be fixed here. Even with some guys missing, this LSU defense is a solid stop unit. 

The Houston defense has been above average all year, and the offense is subpar with Weigman at the controls. 

Two teams who don't break big gainers very often. 

On the under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The BYU Cougars have the much better defense. Georgia Tech's defense was torched through the last few games, and I just don't have the confidence in them to secure the stops needed here. This is a group that gave up 48 points against NC State. They also allowed 34 points in a game at Boston College. Pitt then put up 42 points on them. 

BYU's Kalani Sitake staying after some thought he would go to Penn State or another job really hyped up the BYU fan base and the team. I like BYU's solid defense, and I like their ability to run the football. Martin and company should be able to do some major work in this game. 

I expect BYU to have less opt outs for this one, and I like the Cougars chances of taking care of business. Lay the points. 

(3 Unit Play) I fully expect this CMU group to out-possess NW and move the ball methodically on the ground. We should see a very slow operating tempo and limited possession count here but I expect this Chips group to be fired up about playing in a bowl game and the fan contingent should travel well for this one. 

I think CMU will have success on the ground and the Chips will be able to have success against a defense that was susceptible to giving up explosive plays on the ground. We should know right away which team wants to be there and which one doesnt, but I would expect Central Michigan to show up. 

Hawaii is playing in this bowl game for the first time in quite some and this will be the first bowl game for Hawaii during the Timmy Chang era. This is such a motivation spot for Hawaii, playing at home in front of their home fans, on Christmas Eve. I fully expect this Hawaii group to be locked in and ready to go. 

Hawaii has an underrated defense that has played really well at home this season and their pass defense should contain what Cal wants to do on the offensive end. This will be a fun battle with Nick Rolovich coming back to the Island where he played and coached and JKS also has deep ties to Hawaii but I believe the Bows are going to get this win outright. I would expect a fun battle on Christmas Eve with an excellent quarterback matchup. Hawaii wins outright. 

Montana has been really clicking on offense while scoring 50 points in back to back playoff games and we have seen the development of sophomore quarterback Keali'i Ah Yat really pay off with 32 touchdown passes this season. Receivers Davis Brooks, Blake Bohannon and Drew Deck have really become reliable outlets and the pass offense has taken off, which further opens holes for RB Eli Gillman. This offense can come at you in a hurry and I would expect the Griz to move the ball and have chances to score here. 

The Montana State offense is going to gash on the ground with Adam Jones and Julius Davis which will open up the pass game. Elite FCS quarterback Justin Lamson is going to have opportunities to pass on this Montana secondary which has given up 19 touchdown passes this season. Montana State has explosive receivers that will create separation and pick up chunk yardage. 

Weather will not inhibit scoring here, this should be a fun battle and I anticipate this one to be higher scoring than expected. 

(3 Unit Play) What is the path to Tulane moving the ball and sustaining possession here? We saw this team only score 10 points in the first meeting and their lone touchdown was with 3 minutes left in garbage time of a 6-touchdown blowout. 

I do not expect the Green Wave to have a ton of success on the ground and in the first meeting Retzleff was just 5/17 passing for 56 yards. While I do not expect a six touchdown blowout here, I do not see how Tulane can match score for score and these guys are not going to rattle Trinidad Chambliss in this matchup. Ole Miss should be able to pull away and win this game by three touchdowns, as the Wave defense is not strong enough in the trenches and should not accumulate the pressure needed to throw Chambliss off his mark. 

Rebels! 

OU has finally had some time to rest with John Mateer after the hand surgery earlier this season and I think the time off will serve this OU offense well. The Sooners are healthier along the offensive line and at running back, and this defense remains a nasty unit. 

I am not completely sold on Alabama being able to go into Norman and throw the ball effectively, especially given the projected wind in this matchup. Ty Simpson is going to be tasked with doing alot here and I do not think the Tide will have success against this OU defensive front. 

Home playoff teams last year were 4-0 and that shows that having home field in these games is a huge advantage. While not a primary reason for this play, it does help to be in your own building in this environment with the crowd in your favor. I think OU will feed off the energy in the building and their defense will step up and make plays in the 4th quarter with the game on the line. 

BOOMER SOONER! 

(3 Unit Play Under)

Western Michigan is one of the slowest operating teams in FBS this season and they do not have a high percentage of explosive plays on offense. This team is going to run the ball a ton and we should see methodical drives predominantly carried out on the ground. I would expect Buckley and QB Broc Lowry to carry the rushing load here. WMU has next to zero explosive pass plays and their redzone efficiency numbers are poor. 

Kennesaw State is going to show up here and play hard under head coach Jerry Mack, and this offense is predicated on accumulating chunk plays through the air, something the WMU defense does not give up. We should see pressure on Amari Odom like we havent seen him face this season and I expect WMU to limit explosive plays and control the game in the trenches. 

This WMU defense is nasty, and should be able to control the terms here. Expect the clock to move quickly as I expect KSU to run the ball more here, and we know WMU is going to do so. Under. 

I love ODU in this spot as the Monarchs go for their first bowl win in coach Ricky Rahne's tenure. We should have a real motivated group here as Quinn Henicle takes over for departed Colton Joseph who hit the portal, but that is really the only roster caveat  on the ODU side. South Florida has seen Byrum Brown opt out, and many other offensive weapons are expected NOT to suit up here including two receivers, Nimrod and Chris Neptune. Several from the defensive side are also not expected to play and with the previous staff off to Auburn, I am wondering what USF is showing up to play for in this game. Expect ODU to win this game outright. 

(3 Unit Play on Washington) The Washington Huskies appear to have a nearly full roster ready to go for this game. Washington lost by a single point in their  bowl game against Louisville last year. They went for 2 and didn't get it. That's a tough way to lose, and I would expect their motivation level to be high for this contest.

Boise State is more at risk of multiple opt outs here. They have a starting safety, tight end, and offensive lineman that are potential opt outs. Maddux Madsen is far less than 100% here too, and I could see him not playing the whole game. 

Boise State's run defense ranks bottom 25 in the country, and Washington should do a lot of damage on the ground in this one.

Lay the points. 

(4 Unit Top Play South Dakota) Montana is a talented football team but their defense has given up significant points and yards this season and they do have chinks in the armor. USD is equipped with an exceptional running game and RB L J Phillips has 1800 yards rushing with 19 touchdowns. The Yotes have played with a different attitude and intensity the last 6-7 weeks and that has carried over to the playoffs. 

Montana is not an elite sack and pressure defense so I would not expect Aiden Bouman to be feeling the head back there. He should have time while running play action to go through the progression and take his deep shots. 

Montana has an electrifying offense and their QB- Ah Yat has impressed me with his playmaking ability. This team has gone through stretches however where they give up negative plays and drives stall out. USD defensively is going to make them pay for that today, and I would expect the Yotes defensive line to have a say in this one. Yotes keep this one close. 

Villanova is not going to be able to run the football here and Tarleton State has an excellent secondary that has forced 23 interceptions this season. The pass rush should do a good job here of getting Nova QB Pat McQuaide off his rhythm. Nova wants to establish the run here but this unit is not talented enough up front to be able to run the football. 

The Texans have several weapons on the outside that should create mismatch problems for the Villanova defense in this one. I do not expect Nova to be able to guard the Tarleton State wide receivers and quarterback Victor Gabales throws a nice deep ball with accuracy. I was impressed with the physicality TSU showed in their last game against UND. I would assume we see explosive plays from the Texans offense and I find it hard to imagine Nova being able to keep up. 

(3 Unit Play) Writeup soon

(3 Unit Play on Yale) Yale is going to be able to run the football here against the Montana State front and I would expect them to trim this game down by staying on the field offensively and playing slowly. Montana State is going to run the ball a ton here and I would expect them to have some moderate success, but this is not the same championship caliber team that we saw in the FCS National Title last year. 

I think Yale can score enough points to keep this one within the number, which has ballooned to north of four touchdowns. GO YALE

(4 Unit Top Play Under) This is a tough assignment for Illinois State, who actually played pretty well in the first matchup between these two Missouri Valley Conference foes. Illinois State trailed just 18-16 entering the fourth quarter but I would expect the Bison to be well prepared defensively for what the Birds want to run on offense. NDSU operates very slowly offensively and we should not see much pace from either team in this one. Expecting a slow burning grinder here that stays under. 

(3 Unit Play) The path for BYU to have success offensively here is very limited. This team could not run the ball in the first meeting and BYU was unable to throw their way out of trouble against this Texas Tech secondary. I would fully expect the Red Raiders defense to show up prepared and ready to go here in this one. 

TTU does not need style points here and I would expect this group to salt away the second half with a double digit lead, while running the ball a ton in the second half. TTU doesn't need any style points to impress the committee as they are already the 4th seed with a scheduled first round bye, a spot they likely preserve with a win. 

TTU should control this game with their defense and make life difficult on BYU, and I like this one to go under. 

(3 Unit Play) Fun game down there in Georgia between the SOCON champ and the 2nd place team in the MVFC. The Yotes have put together a nice second half of the schedule and their offense is rush heavy led by L J Phillips who has 1688 rushing yards and 16 rushing scores. This offensive line should be able to create rushing lanes and the Yotes are an excellent deep shot passing offense who should have success here against the Mercer secondary. 

Mercer has a good offense but these guys might press a little bit here, especially with a Freshman quarterback in a playoff atmosphere. USD has been there before, and I like them to win the war in the trenches. 

(3 Unit Play on UNLV) The Boise State Broncos are rushing Maddux Madsen back into the starting quarterback role. Madsen was thought to be out for the season, but he's back for this contest. I don't think Madsen will be 100% or even close to it though. 

UNLV has found something on defense in recent weeks. Hawaii couldn't get a first down on them. Utah State's prolific offense was held down as well. The Rebels have switched up their pressure schemes, and it has been working.

Anthony Colandrea is a great dual threat quarterback, and Thomas and the rest of the Rebels running backs should have plenty of room to run against a Boise State defensive front that has struggled to stop the run all year.

This is a coin flip of a game so I'm happy to grab more than a field goal. Boise State isn't the same team they have been in the past, and UNLV gets a chance at revenge.

Take the dog. 

(3 Unit Play Over) Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State put up a bunch of big plays on offense the first time they played. I think the same will occur here. Kennesaw State turned it over four times, but had 579 total yards of offense in that first game. They threw an interception inside the Jacksonville State 5 yard line for one of the turnovers. Jacksonville State had 8.1 yards per play in that game, and Kennesaw State simply could not stop the Gamecocks rushing attack.

Both defenses have given up loads of explosive plays this year. Jacksonville State is weakest against the pass, and Odom from Kennesaw State should have a big play. Cam Cook should feast on this Kennesaw State front seven on the other side.

Neither defense is good in the red zone either, and I think we see touchdowns instead of field goals in this one.

Over the total! 

(3 Unit Play Hawaii) The Hawaii Warriors were beaten badly at UNLV last week. That was a humbling game for Hawaii, but I expect them to come out highly motivated and sharp for this game. Hawaii is 5-0 ATS and covering by an average of 14 points per game at home this season.

Wyoming is shorthanded here on offense, and the Cowboys were already very weak offensively. They are averaging just 12.2 points per game on the road. Hawaii's defense is much better this year, and they are an above average unit in the red zone. Wyoming's offense lacks an identity and I think they'll be shut down here.

Lay the points. 

(3 Unit Play) Heavy snow in Champaign on Saturday. It will die down a bit late in the game, but the winds will still be around. That kind of weather can be an equalizer. Illinois isn't the great team some thought they were coming into the season either. The Illini just aren't  very good on the offensive line like normal. 

Northwestern isn't a great team by any means, but they are a proud bunch that wins the small things and keeps games tight and low scoring. 

Grab the dog. 

(3 Unit Play) There hasn't been enough attention paid to the improvement of the Virginia Cavs defense in the second half of the year. At the beginning of the season they looked like a team that would have to win shootouts every single week. They have cut down on the explosives allowed. They have buttoned up the entire secondary very well. 

Virginia Tech plays very hard in this rivalry game. The Hokies aren't likely to just lie down here. I would look for them to run the ball a bunch in this one. 

Under. 

(3 Unit Play on UTSA) The road/home splits for UTSA are more drastic than any other team in the country. UTSA's offense has been wildly explosive at home on the fast track. Army simply doesn't have enough on offense to trade scores with them.

Army will try to just run the ball and keep UTSA's offense off the field,  but the UTSA run defense is the strength of their overall defense. UTSA can be thrown on, but Army can't take advantage of that.

A blowout. 

(3 Unit Play) Going to be very hard for New Hampshire to throw the football in these elements here against a tougher MVFC secondary, so expect UNH to go run heavy in this one. SDSU QB Chase Mason is still not confirmed in, and either way we should see a run heavy approach from the Jacks in this contest. UNH has a good run defense in preventing explosive chunk plays so expect the Jackrabbits to have to work hard to move it downfield consistently. Weather in Brookings is bad, cold, snow, wind, not fun to play football in. 

(3 Unit Play) Yale is going to be able to run the football here with Josh Pitzenberger against the Y-state defense that has not been great this season. Youngstown State can give it up both through the air and on the ground and is surrendering 30 points per game this season. I think the Bulldogs can out-possess Youngstown State and play keep away from Beau Brungard and the high-flying Penguins offense. Should be a close game that comes down to the wire, and for Yale to have a chance to win this game in the fourth quarter. 

(3 Unit Play) Central Connecticut State was far from dominant in the NEC, a weak FCS league, and the defense really left the door open for weaker opponents to keep games close. This will be a major mismatch with URI and quarterback Devin Farrell who has thrown for over 3000 yards this season. Rhode Island will be able to shut down the CCSU ground attack and separate in the second half of this one. 

(3 Unit Play) Oklahoma State has been playing very competitive football the last several weeks and this team is starving for a win against a team that really doesnt have much to play for and the injury list becomes longer and longer for the Cyclones. Iowa State doesnt have nearly the passing offense that they had last year and their top RB is out for this game. The defense has been gashed routinely this season, and I am not convinced that they are going to get stops here in this one. 

For all the bad that has gone on this season in Stillwater, this Cowboys team is still playing hard and the defense has actually improved significantly down the stretch. Weather will factor and I expect this game to be closer than this point spread would suggest. 

(4 Unit Top Play on Utah State) This is such a spot for Utah State to avenge so many lopsided losses in this series, and they have the team to do so here. The Utags are 5-0 SU and ATS at home and I am not convinced that the Boise State offense is fixed. Backup Quarterback Max Cutforth has struggled most of the way this year in replacement of Maddux Madsen and I dont think blowing out Colorado State in a dead spot for the Rams means that they are back. 

The Boise run game is a far cry from what they were last season and the offensive line has not played overly well this year compared to prior seasons. They will struggle in this environment on the road. 

Utah State's offense is explosive and will move the ball here against a Boise Defense that is not creating havoc, and they are allowing explosive plays at a much higher rate this season. I think Utah State wins this game outright here. 

(3 Unit Play) North Texas has scored 50 points or more in six games this season and the offense showed last week that they can score QUICKLY and from anywhere on the field. I think they approach this game as a playoff resume booster and I think the Temple defense struggles badly with giving up explosive plays. We should see a ton of explosive passing here and the Temple offense will not be able to keep up. 

UNT has a stout defense and looking at the Temple offense, and their output the last three weeks has left a lot to be desired. Massive blowout here. Mean Green. 

(3 Unit Play) I love playing this San Diego State team and I trust their defense to lock down the UNM offense here. SDSU has been the best defense with the pest pass coverage unit, best run stop unit, and exceptional special teams this year in MWC play and Sean Lewis calls the games to the strength of the team and plays the field position game really well. 

I am leaning in on their ground game here and their defensive prowess to stop the run and contain New Mexico QB Jack Layne in this one, SDSU wins a squeaker. 

We did already get out ahead of the line moves on this one but we have seen what the Air Force offense looks like without quarterback Liam Szarka and the results have not been good. Using a converted fullback at quarterback along with Josh Johnson, who started the year, and the result was minimal yardage and scoring in the second half against UConn, and 3 points and 14 first downs against New Mexico. 

This is a spirited rivalry game and I expect the Colorado State defense to play hard, but on the other side the Rams are starting Akron cast off Tahj Bullock at QB today. He has not completed a pass this season and I would expect the offensive output for the Rams to be minimal in this one. 

If you are late to this one I still like the under if you can grab 45.5 or less, as this should be another one where points are at a premium. 

(3 Unit Play) Utah's rushing attack is too strong here for the Jayhawks to try to contain. The Utes are second in the country in yards per rush and 9th in explosive rush plays registered. Kansas has struggled on the ground the last five weeks defending the run game, and I cannot see the Utes attack being quarantined here. 

I like the rotation at quarterback between Dampier and Ficklin and I think they both compliment each other well. The Utes have one final chance to make their case for the CFB playoff, and I think they have the desire, motivation and talent edge to win this game with extended margin. Lay it!

(3 Unit Play) We should see 70-80% rushing plays in this game and I would expect Iowa to have a lot of success in their drives in moving the ball. There will not be a tremendous amount of explosive plays in this one and both passing games should struggle to get going. Nebraska is on a back up quarterback and likely should rely on the ground attack. Emmitt Johnson is a strong back who can pick up yards after first contact and between the tackles. 

Iowa is a strong defensive team and they are elite and sound on special teams. They should not make careless mistakes that would lead to cheap scores in this one. We should get some weird weather which could affect how this one plays out. Should be a slow pace, slow burner. 

(3 Unit Play on Navy) The Navy Midshipmen are 6-3-1 ATS in the last ten meetings between these two teams. Navy put up 56 points last year. I certainly don't expect them to put up 56 points again, but I do think the Memphis defense will struggle to stop them. 

Memphis has a good run defense against a traditional running game, but Navy is far from traditional. Horvath is an elite decision maker in the run game. Horvath is more than capable of hitting them with some explosive passing plays too, and the Memphis secondary has been very susceptible to that this season. 

The Navy defense will give up yards here, but Brendon Lewis isn't fully healthy and the Memphis Tigers have struggled at times in the red zone.

This is a tough matchup for Memphis. If we are getting more than a field goal, I have to side with the highly motivated road team that can methodically move the ball down the field or hit you with an explosive play.

The Midshipmen! 

(3 Unit Play Under) We have seen the game script on several occasions where San Diego State plays slow and conservatively, while leaning in on their defense. We have seen the Aztecs run the football and kick field goals in the red zone, and I think San Jose State's defense is somewhat competent against the pass. 

The Spartans offense is in free fall, and this group has had back-to-back horrific performances where they lined up against two of the worst defenses in the MWC and scored a combined 26 points. This has ended up being a lost season for San Jose State and I think they will struggle to get much going on the road against one of the best secondaries in the G5. 

San Diego State will be the more physical team and will dictate the pace here. Under. 

(3 Unit Play) Rice cannot throw their way out of trouble and has struggled keeping pace with the top offenses in the AAC this season. We saw them struggle against Memphis and UTSA with keeping pace as the offense is predicated around having the lead and out-possessing you. The Owls will not be able to do that here against UNT who has already faced two option teams this season and have an exceptional DC in Skylar Cassidy. 

The Mean Green offense is electric and led by QB Drew Mestemaker has thrown the ball around all season, I fully expect a locked and loaded performance here against a bad Rice secondary. UNT should score in the 40's here, Rice cannot keep up. Lay it! 

Air Force's offense really took flight when Liam Szarka was inserted into the starting QB role earlier in the season but he is out for the year in this one and there are questions about the skill position players that might be available for this one for the Falcons. AF plans to use a converted fullback at QB this week and I would expect to see very little downfield passing, and mostly inside option techniques deployed here. 

UNM is a slower pace team and can lean in on the run here to grind this game down in the second half, something they have shown a willingness to do in recent weeks. New Mexico also operates very slowly and are one of the least explosive offenses in the conference. I expect minimal big plays, methodical drives and a lower scoring game here. Under.

(3 Unit Over) The Points are coming, guys. I think we will see this one get over the posted total because of ECU and their offensive pace, and ability to accumulate chunk explosives down the field with their passing attack while squaring off against a UTSA secondary that gets torched on the rgular. 

UTSA has significantly better home performance than away and the Road Runners have scored 36 or more points in every home game this season. ECU is strong against the run and UTSA running back Robert Henry is out for this one, so expect Owen McCown to do it with his arm in this one. Should be a fun QB dual here as these two go back and forth. Over. 

(3 Unit Play on James Madison) A great opportunity for James Madison to prove that they are worthy of consideration for the CFP spot for the G5. James Madison was dissed by the committee by Tulane being put in front of them. James Madison gets a spot here against a Washington State team that has played well of late, and the committee should respect a strong showing against the Cougars.

James Madison is dominant on the defensive side of the ball. The Dukes are likely to shut down the Washington State rushing attack. JMU has one of the best defensive lines in the country. Washington State doesn't have the explosiveness necessary to hang around with the retooled James Madison offense.

James Madison has been very balanced of late, with their quarterback play in recent weeks improving in a big way. The Dukes have all the reasons in the world to be highly motivated to win by margin here.

The Dukes.

(3 Unit Play) Kirby Smart just manages these games differently than any other coach in America, and is 0-15 ATS in his head coaching career when laying 40 or more points. I expect UGA to win, dominate and control this game start to finish, but he uses these games situationally for teaching moments and also spots to get some of the young guys into the game in limited action. I like the fight I have seen from Charlotte in recent weeks and think they can do enough offensively to punch a score across and that might be all we need here to gain the ATS cover for the 49ers. This game means nothing to UGA, as they are likely focused on GT and the showdown next week in ATL. 

(3 Unit Play Tulsa) Tulsa has been very feisty this season and I just dont trust Army to win this game with Margin. The offensive punch is not there, and we havent seen this team connect on many explosive plays this season. I like what I have seen from Tulsa the last several weeks and the defense is still playing competitive football. 

Army has struggled some on third down and their redzone efficiency numbers have also been lower than in prior seasons. I think Tulsa can throw the ball around here a bit on Army and keep this game close into the 4th quarter. 

(3 Unit Play Under) Two teams not interested in playing exceedingly fast, and both defenses have been excellent in limiting explosive plays. Oklahoma is 2nd in the country in havoc created and this front seven will be coming after Missouri QB Pribula and making it really tough on him. This secondary should have no issue here for OU attacking the Missouri passing game. The Tigers are one of the least explosive offenses in the entire country, ranking 133rd in total explosiveness and and 128th in rushing explosiveness. 

Oklahoma has shown such a desire to play in these lower scoring defensive battles and I love how the defense rebounded last week against Alabama. Every game is a playoff game for OU and I expect the defense to be locked in, and the offense will do enough to eeek out the win for the Sooners. We like the under. 

(3 Unit Play SMU) Tough spot for Louisville with many starters out on defense and questions about Miller Moss potentially not playing in this one. SMU has certainly responded well to the loss against Wake Forest and have rattled off back to back wins before the bye week, giving them extra time to prep for this one. Louisville has now lost two in a row and their pre season goals and aspirations have now evaporated. 

I think Jennings will be able to create and break down the Louisville defense and cause problems through the air against a team and grades out 81st in pass explosiveness allowed on defense. The Mustangs defense has been really solid this year in providing pressure to the opposition and I expect pressure against whoever plays at QB for Louisville, who has everything to play for in this one. Home finale with their season on the line, I like SMU here. 

(3 Unit Play on BYU) Writeup coming soon

(3 Unit Play Under) Writeup soon

(3 Unit Play on Washington) This is such a bad spot for Purdue after playing Michigan and Ohio State back to back weeks and now have to travel to Washington and play in that loud environment. Purdue has not had a lot of success this season since winning their first two games and the loss of Devin Mockobee really hurts the run game. The passing game has struggled to get off the ground by Purdue standards and the defense struggles to tackle or consistently get stops.

After two max efforts in a row and with the long travel this is a tougher spot for the Boilers. Washington is off a frustrating loss on the road against Wisconsin and should bounce back in a big way here. I fully expect mobile quarterback Demond Williams to make plays with his arm and legs, and for Washington to secure several chunk explosive plays against this Purdue defense. 

Purdue has the third worst coverage grades and third worst tackling grades in the Big Ten and struggle to generate pressure on the opposing quarterbacks. This is going to be a long afternoon as UW bounces back and wins this one by more than three touchdowns. Lay it. 

Tennessee will have every imaginable talent advantage you could possibly imagine in this game. New Mexico is in a complete surrender spot here with no bowl game hopes to play for and your season goals are all unattainable. Tennessee has taken these late season spots against inferior competition very seriously and have won and covered the last four in this spot. We should see the Vols accumulate over 500 yards of offense and could score every possession. I would expect this number to be covered in the third quarter and even the 2nd and 3rd string for Tennessee will move the ball and matriculate stops against New Mexico State. I would not be afraid of laying the big number here. 

Louisiana Monroe has struggled offensively all season while averaging 16 points per game and the last three weeks have been particularly difficult for the Warhawks while averaging less than five yards per play. ULM is bottom 20- level in offensive success rate, havoc allowed and passing offense and the ground game just doesnt produce enough explosive plays to consistently move the ball and score. 

South Alabama has only surpassed 30 points in a game twice this season against FBS competition. The Jags struggle in the redzone and in passing downs. We should see run heavy on this side as South Alabama relies on the ground game and they will have success here against the ULM defense. 

Neither one of these teams have much to play for the rest of the way this season and with both being run heavy and not overly explosive. I see the clock moving quickly here and minimal big plays. Under

(3 Unit Play Over) Southern Miss has the most improved offense in the Sun Belt Conference and this team has been electric all season led by Braylon Braxton who has completed 68% of his passes with 19 touchdowns this season. The Golden Eagles are averaging over 400 yards and 32 points per game and are now lining up against a Texas State defense in free fall. 

The Bobcats have not defeated an FBS team since week 2 this season and have lost five straight games. The defense has allowed 40 points or more in four straight games.

Southern Miss has done well to get early leads on their opponents but this defense has allowed plenty of yards and points in the second half and with the pace and scheme Texas State run, we should have plenty of possessions and scoring chances in this one. I like both teams in the 30's here and think this one will get over the high total. 

(4 Unit Top Play Under) 

Oregon State benched quarterback Maalik Murphy and their backup was been somewhat effective but missed wide open receivers and easy check downs in the stunning loss to Sam Houston State last week. This offense fell apart in the second half and could not generate a score. Mistakes, penalties and missed opportunities cost this team and has been the story of the season for the Beavs. 

Tulsa has operated at a faster pace this season but the offense has not been as effective and has missed out by way of failing to connect on deep shots. The Tulsa receivers struggle to make contested catches in traffic and the ground game can be explosive but is otherwise not reliable on a consistent basis. 

Oregon State's defense has really shown up the last couple of weeks since Robb Akey has taken over at coach. It is not on them at all for losing that game to SHSU, as they did not allow the Bearkats to score an offensive touchdown. This defense will show up here. Tulsa's defense has played well at home this year and I expect them to have a strong performance in this one. UNDER.

(3 Unit Play Notre Dame) I see significant advantages for Notre Dame here in the offensive and defensive trenches. I love how ND has played defensively over the last 5-6 weeks and the Irish have completely turned around this unit. Pitt is going to struggle to run the ball and pass protect here and I struggle to see this offense putting up a high point total here in this one. 

ND has really come together on offense and CJ Carr has done well to improve as a passer week to week. ND has surpassed over 440 total yards in four straight games and the ground game should have success here against Pitt. 

I cannot ignore the comments made this week to the media from Pitt head coach Patt Narduzzi about not caring if his team loses 100-0 as long as they win the next two. I didnt like that. ND is in MUST WIN mode now. Lay it. 

(3 Unit Play Under) Ball State has played significantly better at home this season than on the road and I expect the Cardinals to have success in their rush heavy offense against an EMU team allowing 240 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry on the ground. 

EMU has not had as much offensive punch in recent weeks and I have zero faith in this offense to be able to throw the ball given the heavy rain and wind projected in the area. I would assume that Ball State is locked in here as the Cardinals are the only team in the MAC that completely controls their own destiny to get to the MAC title game. (Not suggesting they will do that, but in THEIR mind that has to be the reality)

Ball State can win this low scoring game outright here but they will play keep away from EMU and execute high volume play, long time of possession drives. Both red zone defenses are serviceable and can make it tough when the opposition gets the ball down close. Going under here.  

(3 Unit Play Under) Offensively, Toledo has struggled in late down situations. I think they’ll be in late downs more than normal here. Miami's defense is always a quality unit under Chuck Martin. The under is 24-18 in Chuck Martin’s 42 MAC games at home.

Toledo has a dominant defense. Toledo is 1st in passing success rate allowed and 1st in rushing explosiveness allowed. DeQuan Finn and company should struggle to hit the big play here. Miami's offensive line is at a clear disadvantage too.

Nationally, Miami is 10th in explosiveness allowed. Toledo is first! The big plays should be few and far between.

A ton on the line in this one. These MACtion games aren't trending nearly as high as they did years ago. Look for this one to stay tight and low scoring.

Under.

(3 Unit Play Under) San Diego State has the best defense in the MWC and ranks first in run defense, secondary coverage grades, and special teams. Their pass rush creates problems for opposing QBs and this team cannot be run on. 

Hawaii has looked great the last couple of weeks but we should consider the competition faced as the Bows played four horrific pass defenses. They will struggle to throw the ball against this San Diego State defensive back seven which is allowing just 51% completion percentage this season. 

SDSU will play a slow methodical pace on offense and run the football while sprinkling in the occasional deep shot. The Aztecs have shown a high comfort level in playing low scoring field position games and I fully expect that one here. Both red zone defenses are solid so we could be seeing a lot of field goal attempts in this one. Both teams trust their kicking operation so we shouldnt see anything whacky on the special teams end of it. 

I think this total is a tick too high for how SDSU controls the pace of play and the line of scrimmage. GO LOW.

(3 Unit Play on Oregon State) Sam Houston is playing through a lost season and the defense has allowed over 7 yards per play and nearly 500 yards per game this season while allowing every opponent to score at least 35 points. 

Since taking over after Trent Bray was fired, Rob Akey has this Beavers defense playing really inspired football on the defensive side. I fully expect a max effort from Oregon State in their home finale, and SHSU will not be able to keep up here. Lay the big number. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The UVA defense is for real and has been lights out the last couple of weeks. The UVA offense...the same cannot be said for that. I have been impressed with the Wahoos and how they play together cohesively on that side of the football. 

Wake forest has had back to back duds offensively and sport one of the worst 3rd down offenses in the country. Robbie Ashford has not looked like himself in recent and while Wake has been a great story this year, the offense is not one to light up the score board. Wake forest has the worst redzone offense in the country as only 10 of 29 red zone trips have resulted in touchdowns. This could be a field goal fest here. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The weather is going to play a factor here with wind and rain expected, but the Wisconsin offense is bad as it is but they did just play the toughest four game stretch of any team in the conference and have now had the bye week to get healthy. 

I fully expect a rock solid performance from the Wisconsin defense here and we have seen the offensive operation look a little wonky for Washington on the road this season. Wisconsin does not have the offense to seriously threaten this UW squad with an outright upset, but the defense should keep these guys in the game and the wind/rain will factor into the play calling. Should be a slow burning grinder. 

(3 Unit Play Over) I am a big believer in the Coastal Carolina offense the last couple of weeks since inserting Samari Collier in at quarterback. This team has responded to the dual threat signal caller and his ability to make plays with his arm and legs. Coastal is off of back to back performances where they have put up 89 points the last two weeks. 

I do not however trust the CCU defense to procure stops and Georgia State has an offense potent enough to create some problems for the Chants in this one. QB Cameran Brown threw four touchdown passes last week against South Alabama and the Panthers have several explosive receivers who can score from anywhere on the field. 

Georgia State's defense has been the issue here as they are allowing over 450 yards and 41 points per game defensively. I do not trust this team to secure stops on third down and the redzone performance has been weak so far this season. We should see points here. 

(3 Unit Play UConn) Another play on the home team here with a good spot to hang their hat on. Duke is squarely in the mix in the ACC championship game race and this non-conference bout has zero impact on how that race shakes up. I can assure you this game will mean alot to UCONN however and the huskies have played very well against two other ACC teams this year. 

I am worried about Dukes defense which has been shredded all season while allowing 400 yards per game and over 6 yards per play. This secondary has struggled while allowing 69% completion percentage against them and nearly nine yards per pass attempt. 

UConn QB Joey Fagnano has completed 69% of his throws with 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions this season as the Huskies are scoring 45 points per game on average at home this year. Duke cannot be trusted defensively and their front seven does not secure pressure nearly enough to rattle the opposition. This game will be back and forth, and I expect UConn to have a chance to win this game outright, so getting all of these points is very appealing. 

(3 Unit Play Miss St) This is such a spot for Mississippi State here with the gauntlet schedule that UGA has faced along with who they have waiting on deck. Georgia has been very fortunate in many of their games this season, specifically against Tennessee, Ole Miss and last week against Florida. This front seven does not strike fear into their opponents as typical Kirby Smart defenses have from the past. 

I think Mississippi State is vastly improved in all three phases and this team has punched above their weight class several times this year. Two of their losses were in overtime and another was a 2 point loss against Florida. 

Blake SHapen has done well this year to avoid the catastrophic turnovers for the Bulldogs while completing 65% with 15 touchdowns. This Georgia Secondary has allowed more explosive pass plays than you with think and this UGA offense is not built to strike quickly, making it more difficult to extend margin. I like the spot, with a noon kick off in Stark-Vegas. 

More Cowbell Please. 

(3 Unit Play on Boston College) This is a major spot for Boston College this weekend. They catch SMU off of a massive home win against Miami last week, and this weekend BC will be celebrating their annual "Red Bandanna" game where they celebrate the life of a former student who lost his life during the 9-11 attacks. The circumstances surrounding this are very meaningful to BC and they have played very spirited football in the past surrounding Red Bandanna. 

Beyond that BC has played exceptionally well in their last two games against Louisville and Notre Dame, hanging in both deep into the second half. I have been impressed with the resolve of this Boston College group despite not having a very successful season in the W/L column. 

SMU has been shredded defensively despite not giving up big point totals and the Mustangs come in ranked 103rd nationally in defensive success rate and 114th in pass play success rate. I think BC can throw the ball around a little bit here and stress the SMU secondary. 

SMU is just 14/47 on third down the last three weeks and the redzone offense has struggled on the road in recent weeks. BC will compete hard here and I think they can put a scare into SMU who could be peeking ahead to Louisville. 

(4 Unit Top Play) Colorado is in surrender mode after back to back performances where this team has looked completely apathetic defensively and the offense has gotten nothing going. I am struggling to see how this team competes with a resurgent WVU team that has shown no quit on the season. 

And now Colorado is turning to true freshman Julian Lewis at quarterback after cycling through plenty of signal callers this season. I am struggling to see how Colorado shows up and moves the football here offensively. The Buffs cannot run the ball effectively and are ranked 104th nationally in Rush Play Success Rate and 76th in overall EPA per play. 

WVU has been ravaged by injuries and have used their fair share of quarterbacks themselves. I have been impressed with Scotty Fox and how he has performed while being inserted into some tough situations, most recently on the road at Houston last week. It appears that Rich Rodriguez has found the quarterback equipped to run his unique rushing offense. 

Colorado has given up 236, 422 and 204 yards on the ground the last three weeks and figure to get gashed again here. WVU gets a big home win. 

Big 12 ATS Game of the YEAR

(3 Unit Play on Memphis) I dont agree with the steam here on Tulane as I feel as though this team has been fortunate enough to have defeated South Alabama, ECU and Army this season. Memphis is on another level here, and while I cannot guarantee it, I feel pretty sure that Lewis is going to play at QB for the Tigers. 

Memphis front seven is going to control the line of scrimmage here in the 2nd half and force Tulane into passing situations where Jake Retzleff has struggled in having to throw their way out of bad situations. 

I think Memphis is able to run the ball here against the Tulane defense which ranks 124th in rush play success rate, 111th in early down explosiveness given up and have the 2nd worst run defense grades in the conference. 

The Wave have benefitted from significant turnover fortune this season but that will eventually even out. It evened out last week against UTSA and the Wave were rolled. I dont believe Tulane is in the same class as UNT, Memphis, USF, etc.  Memphis is better on offense, defense and special teams and will win this game and cover. LAY IT

(3 Unit Play on Harvard) Writeup coming soon 

(3 Unit Play USF) 

South Florida is playing with their season on the line the next couple of weeks and winning out could result in a birth in the Conference championship game and a potential playoff spot. The Bulls stalled out in the second half against Memphis a couple of weeks ago and have now had extra time to thing about the loss, and get some key pieces back on offense. 

The home and away performance splits for UTSA have been shockingly different and while the win last week against Tulane at home was impressive, I am not completely convinced that this UTSA defense is good enough to pin down the Bulls at home. 

USF is excellent at gashing you between the tackles and then running some slower developing play action off of it. UTSA has been gashed on the ground in recent weeks surrendering 6 yards per carry and the defensive front seven is not strong enough to provide enough pressure to affect Byrum Brown in the passing game. 

USF needs style points and they would have extra motivation to win this game with extended margin. The conference race is likely to come down to tie-breaker scenarios that involve computer rankings and MARGIN OF VICTORY will factor into it. I fully expect Golesh and this group to punch in an extra score or two if the opportunity presents itself, something USF and this coaching staff has not been shy of doing at home during the tenure of the regime. 

USF gets a big home win and scores a ton of points in the process. GO find the number under 14, and lets roll tonight with the BULLS. 

(3 Unit Play on N Illinois) Thomas Hammock has been a fantastic road dog over the years, but NIU will be up against it tonight. The offensive attack has not been exceedingly proficient for the Huskies this season but there is a path to these guys moving the football with Telly Johnson on the ground. I would expect NIU to play at a snails pace, run the ball extensively, play field position and keep that Toledo offense on the sidelines as much as possible in this one. 

Toledo has more talent than anyone in the MAC but no coach does more with less than Jason Candle and this year is no different. The Rockets have lost twice this season as double digit favorites and Candle has been horrid in this role in his career. I think the NIU defense can do enough to limit the Rockets offensive attack which has lacked zest this season. 

Low Total, Road Dog, greater than 14, I am going to take a stab here tonight with NIU catching 14.5.

(4 Unit Play on Wake Forest) Wake Forest has had such a tendency to play these closer games against better competition and last week was no different as the Deacs were able to lock down the SMU passing attack and win a low scoring 13-12 affair. I wonder where the FSU locker room is at, as the Noles come in losers of four straight games in a lost season which hasn't seen this group notch the win column since September 20th. 

(3 Unit Play on SD State) Last week was a major spot for Wyoming to put their best foot forward as they were hosting hated rival Colorado State for the final (Scheduled) time in this storied rivalry. I am still not impressed with the Pokes offensive output and now they line up against the number one rated defense in the MWC. San Diego State is allowing just 8.0 points per game at home this season and have two shutouts to their credit to go along with 3 ATS wins. 

(3 Unit Play on Cal) The Cal Golden Bears come back home to take on the Virginia Cavaliers here. Virginia's offense was elite at the beginning of the season, but they have really tailed off of late. 

I find this a really difficult spot for Virginia too. It's a trip all the way across the country that they are certainly not accustomed to yet in the new ACC. Cal has been great as an underdog with Justin Wilcox as the coach too. 

Virginia has won in overtime in three of their last four games. In the other one (against Washington State), they were down 20-10 in the fourth quarter and were very fortunate to come out with a win.

Cal can circle the wagons here after a tough loss at Virginia Tech. They had one extra day to prepare for this one. 

Grab the points with the home team.

(3 Unit Play) I have been extremely impressed with Stanford the last month of the season. While the final score got out of hand this team gave Miami a real game for three quarters and impressively Stanford is 3-0 at home this season. 

(3 Unit Play Boise) Boy oh boy, I think it is safe to say Fresno State had a lot of us fooled early on this season when the Bulldogs rattled off five straight wins including an impressive road win at Hawaii to close out their September slate. Since that victory on the Island however, the Bulldogs have looked terrible as they barely escaped at home in a win against Nevada, were destroyed on the road against Colorado State, and shut out at home against San Diego State last week. 

Fresno State has now switched quarterbacks and this group has completely abandoned their identity as a power running football team, as back up quarterback Carson Conklin threw the ball 42 times last week. The result, 4.2 yards per attempt, and zero points. 

The Broncos defensive secondary has played really well since the loss to Notre Dame nearly a month ago, allowing 115 passing yards to New Mexico’s Jack Layne, 215 yards to UNLV’s Anthony Colandrea, and just 145 yards to Nevada’s Carter Jones. Fresno might really struggle to throw the ball here.

Boise State has a MWC title game birth firmly in control here as long as the Broncos can win three of their last four games. They also have revenge from a 2023 loss to Fresno State and will seek to reclaim victory in the "Battle for the Milk Can". I think they expose the Fresno State defense, which has been leaky in recent weeks. Lay it.

(3 Unit Va Tech) Louisville has been an atrocious road favorite over the last four seasons with a 2-7 ATS mark and several outright losses. Now you add in the distractions of Jeff Brohm potentially getting poached to greener pastures and the squeaker against BC last week and this team might come out playing a little tight here. 

(3 Unit Play) You still might be paying a little brand tax backing the Tigers at home on Saturday afternoon as a small favorite, but the better team on the field this season has been the Dukies. Duke thoroughly outplayed GT a couple of weeks back and if not for a true 14-point swing (Duke fumble on the 2 yard line going in, returned for a TD) would have defeated GT, who did not score an offensive TD until 5:00 remaining in the fourth quarter. 

(3 Unit Play on Vanderbilt) Writeup coming soon

(3 Unit Play Over) The Air Force Falcons are absolutely nothing like they have been in recent years. We saw that when they met up with Navy and a scoring fest ensued. 

Air Force has what might be the worst defense in the country. The Falcons are 136th in the nation in PPA/pass (out of 136 teams) and they are 136th in the nation in PPA/rush. They are dead last at 136th in explosiveness allowed too. The back of this defense is just so slow that they are going to give up big plays against everyone.

On the other hand, the Air Force offense is excellent. Szarka has an average depth of target of 12.5 yards, and he is a really good passer. He's a great decision maker in the triple option game too. Air Force should be able to score a lot here, and move it both through the air and on the ground.

We're aware of the long term trends surrounding service academy teams, but these teams are far different now.

The Army defense is 124th in passing explosiveness allowed. That should hurt them here. 

Both defenses in this game have allowed opponents to cash in far too much in the red zone. 

Over. 

(3 Unit Play on Rice) Memphis is in such a high emotional state after a crushing loss against UAB which really embarrassed that team and saw their starting quarterback go down with injury, only to follow that up with a spirited fourth quarter effort to defeat South Florida last week. Now on short rest the Tigers have to go down to Houston to play the Rice Owls, and look who's on deck...Tulane. 

 I just dont see this as a real big motivational "get up" spot for Memphis, and I would assume that they will be more than satisfied getting in and out with a win. This game should be close, it should be low scoring, and Rice will try to truncate the game down, and out possess the Tigers using the triple option type scheme, one that has given Memphis fits over the years, just ask Navy.  I think Rice can keep this game closer than expected based on their running proficiency and the development of a passing game coming out of the bye week a couple weeks ago. We saw that on display against UConn last week, along with some tougher defense that did well to provide some resistance to a high flying attack.  Its Halloween, in Houston. Rice to put a SCARE into Memphis's conference championship plans. Take.

(3 Unit Play UTSA) The Green Wave have been really fortunate in recent weeks as they trailed in the second half against both ECU and Army but found ways to eeek out wins. I was really impressed with what I heard Jeff Traylor say to the media after their loss against UNT where the Road Runners didnt play well defensively. He vowed to ratched up the defensive intensity and change the practice regimen to fix the issues. 

(3 Unit Play Under) Texas State is looking to respond after losing their last three games in brutal fashion as the Bobcats host JMU on Tuesday night. Texas State has to undoubtedly be frustrated with how their season has gone up to this point, and while a Sun Belt West championship is out of reach Texas State would love to play spoiler and throw a wrench into things for JMU. The WIND is going to throw a wrench into the gameplan for both teams offensively in this one. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Jackrabbits have a noticeable decrease in fire power from prior years offensively. We saw plenty of players get pulled over by FBS programs in the offseason and many followed previous head coach Jimmy Rogers to Washington State during the offseason. They have done the best they can with it, but they just don't have the same explosiveness. It seems QB Mason is not 100% healthy too, and that will be tough to overcome.

NDSU has left no doubt as to who the clear #1 team in FCS football is as the Bison are 7-0 and have won every game by margin in a big way. Illinois St and Southern Illinois are some of the tougher teams in the Missouri Valley Conference and the Bison dispatched both of those two foes with ease.

Pace should be slow, neither one of these teams wants to run tempo and we should see the play clock tick down quite a bit before each of these teams get the snap off.

The third down defense from both teams is elite. That should make scoring here difficult, and I see ND State's defense dominating.

Under.

(3 Unit Play Under) This season has certainly been a struggle in Amhurst in year 1 for Joe Harasymiak and the Minutemen, especially offensively. Five times this team has failed to score more than 10 points and last week required some fluky explosiveness for UMass to eclipse 20 points against Buffalo. 

(3 Unit Play on Vanderbilt) Vanderbilt has played the much tougher schedule of these two teams. Missouri has played just once away from home too, and I didn't like what I saw from them at Auburn in that game. The Missouri defense hasn't been tested other than the Alabama game. 

This is a very rare national spotlight game for Vanderbilt on their home field. Diego Pavia and company should bring their "A game" to this one. Stowers is the best tight end in the country, and the world is starting to see how he can take over a game. He's a tough matchup for this Missouri defense.

Vanderbilt is a top five special teams unit in the country, and Missouri is bottom 20 in the country. That's the type of thing that can decide these close matchups. 

I trust Pavia far more than Pribula, and I'll lay the points here with the Commodores.

(3 Unit Play Over) Navy has been in high scoring games every step of the way this season outside of their contest against Rice a couple of weeks back and five of their six games have seen at least 59 total points scored. The Middies should get torched in the secondary by this FAU passing attack similarly to what we have seen Temple, Air Force and UAB do. 

(3 Unit Play on Uconn) Rice has made every attempt this season to adopt the Scott Abell inverted triple option system but this team is at a deficit and does not have the appropriate personnel to make the offense work as intended. The quarterback play has been middling and Rice has next to zero offensive explosiveness. The ground game is truly "3 yards and a cloud of dust" and if this team fails to string together successful plays the results are failed third down conversions and punts. 

(3 Unit Play Under) Syracuse offense has been a mess since Steve Angeli went out with injury against Clemson and the result has been 3, 13, and 18 points scored. The offense is not nearly as efficient in early downs and as a result has attempted 47 third down conversions during this stretch, nearly 16 per game. They have only converted 15 of them during this stretch as Ricky Collins has struggled to get the offense back to the potent level they had been playing at. Eight interceptions and some bad fumble luck has not helped the cause. 

(3 Unit Play) I think KSU is peaking at the right time and after several embarrassing performances to start this season have strung together several solid performances against good competition in recent weeks. This team is running the ball better and has really ramped up their situational execution over the last three weeks. I have been impressed with the play of Avery Johnson in recent weeks as he has thrown 7 touchdowns to just one interception over the last three games. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Oklahoma Sooners defense has been the best in the nation so far this year. They are first in rushing play success rate allowed. They are first in passing play success rate allowed. Oklahoma's defensive front has been especially tough. Ole Miss hasn't faced a defense like this so far this season. 

Oklahoma's offense isn't as explosive with John Mateer at less than 100%. The Sooners have been unable to sustain a running game against better teams this season. The Sooners offensive line has been very banged up.

The rain in the forecast with a flood watch for the area likely makes this game a sloppy one where the two offenses struggle to put together long drives. If we can avoid explosive fluke plays I think this could be quite a bit lower scoring than many believe.

Chambliss has been shaky against the better defenses, and now he faces the top ranked defense.

Under. 

(3 Unit Play on Nevada) This is a complete downer spot for Boise State coming off the big showdown win against UNLV. This season has not gone as expected for Nevada this season but to their credit this team has shown no quit and has played very competitive football much of the way this year. 

(3 Unit Play on FIU) This line opened up at KSU -1.5 and the Owls have been taking a ton of money as bettors are riding the hot hand of a team that has won and covered four straight. The line has moved out to 3.5 and that is where I want to back the Panthers here. FIU +3.5 is my play here.  This FIU defense will have clear advantages when lining up against the Kennesaw State offense as the Panthers rank 68th overall in Defensive Success Rate and 34th in Finishing Drives. Kennesaw State offensively is just 134th in Offensive Success Rate and 120th in Finishing Drives. The Owls have played what I believe is a pretty easy schedule to this point, and they have been living at home.

Keyone Jenkins and Owens caught fire last week and I expect strong performances at home on Tuesday night. Kennesaw State has not played a road game since September 6th and are now walking into the buzz saw that is…VICE NIGHT. FIU is going to have a ton of energy in the building for their annual fan event and I would expect a rock-solid home performance here. Kennesaw has played well at home but laying more than a field goal on the road in this environment I cannot do.

This is more of a buy on FIU than a fade of Kennesaw State. FIU has the higher overall talent ranking compared to Kennesaw State, and I have to take them getting this many points on Vice night with an amped up crowd.

On FIU.

(3 Unit Play on Stanford) Florida State was ranked #7 in the country. THE NOLES WERE BACK, BABY!! Until they weren’t. three straight losses. CFB Playoff hopes dashed. Conference hopes dashed. Norvell back on the hot seat. And now this team has to get on the airplane and head to Stanford? And they are expected to win this one by three touchdowns? I don’t think there is motivation from this bunch to play this game, let alone blow this team out.

Stanford has been more than capable offensively in recent weeks with the development of Ben Gulbrandson who has thrown for over 1000 combined yards in the last three games.

The defensive metrics look good for FSU but this unit has faded fast the last three weeks. The bottom fell out in the loss against Pitt as the Seminoles allowed a third string quarterback with very little experience to throw for over 300 yards as Pitt defeated the Noles last week sending FSU to their third straight defeat.

The magic displayed by Thomas Castallanos against Alabama has not been sustained in ACC play as the FSU signal caller has been prone to making costly mistakes and missing some easy throws.

This is just such a bad spot for FSU. I expect the Noles to win this game but covering this huge number I cannot endorse. We have seen Stanford play much better at home than on the road and I expect a four-quarter battle here. Grab those points.

(3 Unit Play on Under) The Bearcats were quite comfortable nursing a 2nd half lead against UCF at home last week as this Cincinnati bunch was run heavy but the defense has played better in recent weeks. Oklahoma State announced backup QB Zane Flores will not play and the Pokes also have several wide receivers and some OL players out due to injury. I would expect this second half to be a running clock as the wind is going to pick up significantly which will affect Cincinnati’s passing game.

There is no real reason for Cincy to embarrass this OK St team and run up the score, and this team has shown no desire to do that now in multiple data points. I think we will see the Cincinnati defense shut down the OK ST ground game as the Cowboys are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on the ground this season with minimal rushing explosiveness. Cincy is allowing just 3.7 yards per carry on the ground.

The one Cincy really wants to get is next week when Baylor comes to historic Nippert Stadium, so get the win, and get the hell out of Dodge. Or Stillwater in this case. UNDER.

(3 Unit Play Over) South Florida just played in an epic shootout against North Texas last week. The Bulls put up 580 yards and 6.7 yards per play. USF has been excellent on defense against the run, but they have struggled against the pass. That's important here since Florida Atlantic is going to drop back and throw it around. I think the Owls can have quite a bit of success here against the Bulls secondary.

On the other side, Florida Atlantic has one of the worst defenses in the country. The Owls allow a bunch of explosives, and they struggle to get off the field on late downs. USF's Byrum Brown should have a field day here. 

These two teams are 1st and 3rd in the country in pace of play. Expect a ton of possessions here, and this game being extremely high scoring is likely. The total is set very high, but it is absolutely set high for a good reason. The oddsmakers can't set this one high enough. Over! 

(3 Unit Play on UCLA) Tim Skipper is doing an excellent job with this UCLA program over the last three weeks. Not only have the Bruins been more competitive on the score board, but there has been significant improvement in all three phases of the game. The offense has moved the ball better and had significant uptick in red zone and third down execution.

The defense has been more formidable and have been tackling better, flying to the football, and playing with piss and vinegar in their veins. Nico Iamaleava has been throwing the ball better and has more command over this offense.

Tim Skipper has shown that coaching matters. I think that he will outcoach Mike Locksley in this one. Maryland has overperformed up to this point but they were fortunate in catching their last three opponents in mega down spots and the Terps were able to capitalize.

MD is 122nd in defensive explosiveness surrendered and 125th in standard down success rate. UCLA should be in 2nd and short a ton here with the entire playbook available to them.

Maryland is in such a bad spot here off two crushing losses in a row in games they held leads into the 4th quarter, and now have to travel across the country to play at the Rose Bowl. I am willing to throw out the season long metrics on UCLA because they were being coached by someone who had no idea what to do and since changing coaches this has been a completely different team. Lay it!