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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-02-26	76ers v. Celtics -7.5		109-100	Loss	-110	30 h 4 m	Show
(3 Unit Play on Celtics) The Boston Celtics have looked really bad in the last couple games. The Philadelphia 76ers have outplayed them badly. Boston hosts Game 7, and I like their chances of turning things around in the all important finale. There are multiple strong angles supporting home favorites coming off a blowout loss in the NBA playoffs. One system is this- a team with a 64% win rate or higher on the season that lost last game by 11 points or more- backing that team is 94-57 ATS (62.3% Wins) dating back to 2005. The Celtics are a proud franchise and they are the deeper team of these two. Philadelphia has been inconsistent all season. Lay the points. Back Boston.
05-01-26	Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 220.5		110-112	Loss	-110	28 h 18 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The Cavs came from behind to beat the Raptors in Game 5. Both teams shot lights out for most of the game. They did slow down in the fourth quarter. I expect to see Game 6 look more like the end of game five rather than the first three quarters. These teams both settle for tough long range jumpers pretty often. I think the defensive intensity will be turned up for a closeout game. The Raptors have been solid on defense all year, and that's the primary reason they surprised to the upside this season. Cleveland doesn't play particularly fast with James Harden handling the ball a lot of the time. This total is a few points too high. We're on the under.
04-24-26	Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 207.5		112-108	Loss	-110	18 h 50 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The Houston Rockets offense is way too reliant on Kevin Durant. Durant is still a really good scorer, but the Lakers defense has a good plan for defending him. Houston simply hasn't had an answer. LeBron James has been playing very well on offense, but he has too much on his shoulders right now too. Luke Kennard isn't likely to be as good offensively on the road. The Lakers don't have too many guys who can go get their own now that they are so shorthanded. The pace in the matchups between these two has been extremely slow. This one should be the same. Under.
04-06-26	Connecticut v. Michigan OVER 144		63-69	Loss	-110	19 h 45 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Over) Michigan has been scoring a bunch of points on a consistent basis. The Wolverines have scored more than 90 points in every game of the NCAA Tournament thus far. UConn is a good defensive team, but the Huskies do foul a lot. They are 307th in the nation in FTA/FGA. The Huskies are going to be fouling here down low. With Mara, Johnson, and the rest of the big guys the Wolverines are going to get offensive rebounds and shots from down low. Reed could end up in foul trouble here, and that badly hurts UConn's ability to slow down the Michigan big men. UConn came out of their shooting slump a bit last game from long range. If they can get some offense out of Solo Ball here once again that will help immensely. Karaban is clearly capable of catching fire too. Michigan's inside out style of play should really pressure UConn's defense. The Huskies are good defensively, but they aren't accustomed to facing teams with this kind of firepower. We're on the over.
04-05-26	Oklahoma v. West Virginia OVER 137.5		82-89	Win	100	9 h 53 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Over) West Virginia has been playing quicker in this tournament than they have in the regular season. Oklahoma has been consistently an over team. Oklahoma has played 21 straight games that have gone over this posted total. The Sooners are a very efficient offense, but they are weak on the defensive end. This total is set very low and I like this to get past the over. Take the over.
04-04-26	Illinois v. Connecticut UNDER 139.5		62-71	Win	100	16 h 7 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) Illinois has raised their level of defensive intensity during this NCAA Tournament and are played exceptional on this end of the floor, holding its last three opponents to 55, 55 and 59 total points. UConn has had shooting woes while shooting just 29% from three point range in this NCAA Tournament with their big three shooters, Solo Ball, Braylon Mullings and Alex Karaban really in a shooting funk. I believe Illinois will have answers for Tarris Reed down low, and while he still might have a decent offensive game, it will be much more difficult for him than what we have seen up to this point. Reed will be such a force on the defensive end against Illinois and his rebounding ability should lessen the 2nd chance opportunities and offensive rebounding of the Illini. The pace is going to be slow, as Illinois is 296th in offensive operating tempo while Uconn is 320th. This is an excellent coaching matchup here and I think both teams want this game played in the 60's. Illinois keeps their opponents off the stripe better than anyone else in the country, and I think we avoid the heavy whistle here in this one. Fun game, that stays under the posted total.
04-04-26	West Virginia +1 v. Creighton		87-70	Win	100	15 h 34 m	Show
(3 Unit Play on West Virginia) The Creighton Blue Jays are likely without Swartz for a second straight game here. Swartz averages 10.9 points per game and is a key part of this team. Creighton beat Rutgers in the first game of this tournament by torching the Scarlet Knights in the second half after starting slow. There's undeniably a pretty big gap between a team like West Virginia and Rutgers. The Blue Jays are likely to find it tougher going in this one. West Virginia has the much better defense. The Mountaineers are 17th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Mountaineers found a way to win despite being 2/20 from 3 point range against Stanford. West Virginia has a very experienced team, and they should be very up for even a small tournament like this one. We'll back the defensive Mountaineers in this one.
04-02-26	Stanford v. West Virginia UNDER 136.5		77-82	Loss	-112	12 h 2 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The West Virginia Mountaineers are excellent at dictating the pace. West Virginia is a below average offensive team. They are 17th nationally in defensive efficiency. West VA is 363rd in the nation in overall tempo. Stanford is a below average tempo team. The Cardinal rely too much on one player on offense and can go through long scoring droughts. This is a neutral site game and neither of these teams have played in a long time. We'll side with the under.
04-01-26	Baylor v. Minnesota UNDER 148.5		67-48	Win	100	22 h 11 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The Minnesota Golden Gophers aren't a high level Big Ten team, but they have been battle tested this year. I think the Minnesota coaching staff is far above average, and they are consistently having their team slow the pace down. I don't expect that to change just because they are in a postseason tournament here. Baylor has been inconsistent on pace and defense, but I think Minnesota can dictate the style of play enough here to keep this under the high posted total. This is a neutral site game as well which is a bonus. Under.
03-30-26	Pistons v. Thunder UNDER 219.5		110-114	Loss	-110	21 h 14 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The OKC Thunder have the best defense in the NBA. That is often overlooked by many, but the defense really drives this team. Holmgren is a good paint presence, and the Thunder have a lot of athletic defenders on the perimeter led by Dort. The Pistons don't have the same upside without Cunningham. Detroit has slowed their pace down a bit as well. This is an important game for both teams who are playing for seeding in the playoffs. We'll take the under.
03-29-26	Connecticut v. Duke UNDER 134		73-72	Loss	-110	16 h 46 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) Analysis coming
03-28-26	Purdue v. Arizona -5		64-79	Win	100	10 h 34 m	Show
3-unit play Purdue has the 249th ranked 2-point defense in the country and are just 209th nationally in blocked and altered shots. Arizona is one of the best offenses in the country at getting good looks inside and they play excellent situational basketball without getting behind. Purdue was off on their deep shooting against Texas and struggled badly in the 2nd half, nearly giving that game away. Arizona has the 2nd most efficient 2-point defense in the entire country and if Purdue cannot get it working from inside and has to rely on its three-point shooting, that could spell trouble for the Boilers. Arizona is too strong here and the chances of Purdue having to settle for three point jumpers is high here. If they go down, this could be a game for a while, but if Purdue shoots like they did against Texas this could be major trouble. Peat and Kharchenkov are too strong down low and Burries will be able to create and get to the rim or foul line here. Laying it.
03-27-26	Tennessee +4 v. Iowa State		76-62	Win	100	46 h 36 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) Joshua Jefferson is such a critical piece of what Iowa State wants to do on both sides of the ball here and with him questionable due to injury the Cyclones are going to be at a significant disadvantage on the boards. Tennessee is the best offensive rebounding team in the country snagging 45% of missed shots and turning those into second chance opportunities. Being able to consistently gain extra possessions and put up additional shots will be huge here for Tennessee and I expect Nate Ament and JP Estrella to have good looks here in this one. Tennessee has done really well to vary its operating pace and that has frustrated opponents during this tournament. The defense has contested everything and the way Tennessee defends the 3-point arc should frustrate Iowa State. Without Jefferson this team is just not the same, and I expect this 2nd half to look alot different than the 2nd half of Iowa State's most recent game against Kentucky. Tennessee will have a chance to win this game late.
03-27-26	St. John's v. Duke UNDER 141.5	Top	75-80	Loss	-110	44 h 56 m	Show
(4 Unit Top Play Under) We get a great coaching matchup here between Rick Pitino and Jon Scheyer. Duke has been operating low and slow in regards to tempo since Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba went out of the fold. Ngongba returned from injury and showed a little bit of rust, but I think his presence on the defensive end is felt here. I anticipate St. Johns will slow it down and be forced to operate out of the half court here. The desire of the Johnnies is to try to get the ball in the paint or at the rim, and this is going to be more difficult against Duke. SJU is not a great shooting team and Duke is going to force these guys into making jumpers in the mid-range, which should lead to longer offensive possessions and missed shots. We have an exceptional post-matchup between Zuby Ejiofor and Cameron Boozer in this one, and I think the Johnnies can force the ball out of Boozer's hands in the post. Duke is going to be forced to make some threes here and SJU has a solid outside defense. I think this is first-to-65 wins, and we expect a defensive game here. Under.
03-26-26	Iowa +2 v. Nebraska		77-71	Win	100	19 h 35 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) Iowa has been very impressive, and the preparation of Ben McCollum was critical in the Hawkeyes being able to get past Florida in the round of 32. Despite their best player Bennett Stirtz going 0-9 from 3-point range and the team shooting just 64% from the stripe, Iowa was able to win as decided underdogs. I think they are able to carry the momentum into the sweet 16 against its rival in Nebraska, who they defeated earlier this season and took to overtime in a 2nd meeting. Nebraska needed heroics against Vanderbilt while making a last second shot and surviving a half-court heave to advance themselves. It becomes harder and harder to lay points in a projected tight game where the possession count is going to be very limited. Iowa has not shot the ball well from deep and I expect a little positive regression here from its shooters. I was encouraged about how Banks and Folgueiras have stepped up, but I fully expect Bennett Stirtz to be able to create in the midrange here and knock down good looks. Iowa will be very comfortable with long offensive possessions and should be able to get Cam Manyawu and Folgueiras involved in the paint. I think the defense matches up well and can keep Nebraska off the foul line and out of the paint, so this will come down to three-point variance. Iowa as due for some positive regression, and I think its defense can contest what Nebraska wants to do in shooting the ball from deep. This game will come down to the wire, and we could be looking at another OT or buzzer beater scenario.
03-25-26	Illinois State v. Dayton -7.5		61-55	Loss	-105	19 h 44 m	Show
(3 Unit Play on Dayton) Dayton has been much stronger in the painted area and should have success here against Illinois State getting the ball down low to Malcolm Thomas and Amael L'Etang. Dayton dominated UNCW over the final thirty minutes and erased a 10-point deficit and turned it into a 20-point win. I like the confidence the Flyers are playing with and finally get a chance to perform at home for what will be the last time this season. Dayton gets to the foul line more than any team in the country and I expect paint touches to result in easy looks or trips to the stripe. If Chase Walker gets into foul trouble early the Dayton offense will have a significant advantage here. I look for Dayton to pull away late in the second half and win this game by double digits.
03-22-26	Tennessee v. Virginia +1.5		79-72	Loss	-115	15 h 27 m	Show
(3 Unit Play on Virginia) The Virginia Cavaliers are in a buy low spot here. This team was peaking at the right time right up until their Round of 64 game against Wright State where they went through the motions and were nearly knocked off by the Raiders. Virginia is likely to come back ready to go here. Ryan Odom is one of the best coaches in the country. Virginia has the best tandem of shot blockers in the country. Tennessee's Rick Barnes is 4-8 ATS in the Round of 32, and he has been a money burner in the NCAA Tournament in general. The Volunteers play hard, but this Tennessee team has struggled with consistency. They are coming off a great showing, and they are unlikely to be able to overwhelm Virginia in the frontcourt the way they were able to dominate Miami. I think Virginia can cause some turnovers here based on Tennessee's questionable ball handling. Back the Cavs here.
03-21-26	VCU v. Illinois OVER 151		55-76	Loss	-110	16 h 29 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Over) The Illinois Fighting Illini have been trading spots back and forth the last few weeks with Purdue for the most efficient offense in the country. Illinois is now second at 1.318 points per possession for the season. They have five tremendous scorers who can really spread the defense out. VCU will push the tempo in this one, but they are likely to have a really hard time slowing down the Illini for a full 40 minutes. I would expect a lot of drives to the basket here by the Illini, and they are likely to have open kick outs to their shooters from long range. Illinois isn't an excellent defense. VCU should get some transition opportunities with their quickness in the backcourt. The VCU team has many more outside shooters this season than they had in recent seasons. We're on the over.
03-21-26	Dayton v. NC-Wilmington UNDER 139.5		80-61	Loss	-110	15 h 22 m	Show
3-unit play UNCW has been in such an offensive funk the last two games of the season, and really struggled against Yale in the opener of the NIT tournament. The desire is to get the offense flowing through Patrick Wessler and this game is going to be such a battle between him and L-E'tang on the block. I expect this game to be played at a very low possession count, potentially 60 possessions. Dayton is a strong defensive team that does well to defend the painted area, so for Wilmington to generate a lot of offense Nolan Hodge and Noah Ross are going to have to hit outside jumpers. Dayton tries to force turnovers and get out and run in transition but that is going to be difficult against the guard-play of UNCW and I think we see a game played in the half court here. Dayton is 32nd nationally in defensive efficiency and should do well here despite being on the road. As long as we can avoid a heavy whistle from the referees this game should stay under the total.
03-21-26	TCU +12 v. Duke		58-81	Loss	-115	14 h 37 m	Show
3-unit play TCU should be able to compete at the rim and in the paint on defense here against Duke. I love what I have seen from the Horned Frogs defense the last half of the conference season and TCU has shown that they are very comfortable in lower possession grinders. Duke has struggled without Ngongba and Caleb Foster in the line up and this is just not a team I want to lay points with right now. We have seen the offense struggle to operate and we are getting virtually zero tempo from the Blue Devils. I like the coaching matchup and Jamie Dixon is an excellent tournament setting coach. TCU is great defensively at blocking and altering shots and should do okay here on the boards. The Frogs force turnovers at a rate of 35th best nationally, and that is an area Duke has struggled with. This game should come down to the wire.
03-20-26	Furman v. Connecticut UNDER 137.5		71-82	Loss	-115	101 h 14 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) UConn is 322nd in the nation in tempo. The Huskies are ninth in effective field goal percentage defense. The Huskies aren’t likely to push the pace here, and I do think their shot blockers down low will make things difficult for Cooper Bowser and the rest of the Paladins. Furman is no longer a fast paced run and gun team. Bob Richey is a smart coach, and he knows his team doesn't have enough firepower to win NCAA Tournament games in the 80's like they did a few seasons ago. The large spread games early in the NCAA Tournament have been good to under bettors. I think Furman slows this thing down even further and it stays lower scoring. I’ll back the under trusting Furman to have the right game plan here. UConn wins and slows things down late, but Furman makes life difficult enough for the under to cash.
03-20-26	California Baptist v. Kansas -14		60-68	Loss	-108	101 h 51 m	Show
(3 Unit Play on Kansas) The Cal Baptist Lancers are a fun story, and I love Daniels their speedy point guard. Kansas' quickness and length in the backcourt should make this a very difficult ask for the Cal Baptist offense though. The WAC is a very weak league right now, and Cal Baptist hasn't proven capable of stepping up in class. They were blown away by BYU in their toughest test of the season. Kansas has a defensive stopper in Bidunga. Cal Baptist won't have those opportunities at the rim that they normally have. The Jayhawks are likely to force some long droughts for Cal Baptist in this one. The speed of Melvin Council should be a big key here. He is a one man fast break and he can stay in front of Daniels much better than the normal guy could. Cal Baptist is 312th in the nation in height. Their lack of height and lack of depth will be too much to overcome here. Take the favorite.
03-20-26	Wright State v. Virginia UNDER 146	Top	73-82	Loss	-110	93 h 34 m	Show
(4 Unit Top Play Under) Wright State is going to try to get to the rim here and the Raiders struggle badly at shooting three point shots effectively. I worry about how efficient the Raiders will be here against UVA who has an exquisite rim-protecting defense. Offensive rebounds are going to be hard to come by for Wright State here and I expect plenty of one and done possessions from the Raiders. UVA is going to score here but I do not foresee a pace that will be high enough for the Wahoo's to get into the high 80's in this one. Virginia has varied its pace this season but seemed comfortable in the slower pace games it saw in the ACC tournament and should match the Raiders tempo here, which will be slow. Wright State will struggle to find effective post touches and should very infrequently get to the foul line. Expect this one to be a slow burn, finishing under this posted total.
03-20-26	Long Island v. Arizona UNDER 152		58-92	Win	100	92 h 18 m	Show
3-unit play Long Island is going to have no choice but to trim this game down to a crawl, but the Sharks are going to struggle to get the ball into the painted area and get good looks for their big men. The Sharks want to live in the mid-range and at the rim, and they are not going to be able to do that here against the Wildcats. These guys struggled all year in the NEC shooting the basketball and would routinely struggle to get to 65 points against NEC level competition. There will be very little 3-point shooting, and LIU is really going to struggle to score. The defense is solid, per NEC standards, and Rod Strickland is a good coach. I do not see Arizona having a lot of urgency in the fast break so we should get an honest game in the half court here. With a 2nd round matchup looming with either Nova or Utah State, I can see Arizona throttling back the tempo once up 20-25 points in the second half. Arizona is not reliant on the three and shoots them very infrequently. We should avoid a barrage of three point shooting here and the pace should be played at 65 possessions or less. Under.
03-20-26	Akron +7.5 v. Texas Tech		71-91	Loss	-110	91 h 24 m	Show
(3 Unit Play on Akron) This is John Groce's best team since he has been at Akron. The Zips are 19th in minutes continuity in the country, so this is a veteran bunch that has been in this spot before. This is the best opportunity they have had to do some damage. They face a Texas Tech team that is still a good team, but their upside is nothing like it was before J.T. Toppin went down with a season ending injury. Texas Tech's defense is only 81st in effective field goal percentage defense. The Red Raiders don't force turnovers. Akron should be able to move the ball around and get plenty of good looks. Akron has multiple knockdown shooters from the outside. Texas Tech stumbled into the finish. Akron led much of the game and lost by only 3 points to Miami (Ohio) earlier this season. The Zips have a very high upside. I think they'll be ready for this great opportunity for the program. If they win this one, Akron would have a shot at the Sweet 16 too. Back Akron.
03-19-26	Idaho v. Houston UNDER 136.5	Top	47-78	Win	100	78 h 22 m	Show
(4 Unit Top Play) Idaho is going to struggle badly here against Houston's length and athleticism while operating on the offensive end. The Vandals ran quite a bit in the Big Sky but its tempo against unfamiliar opponents in the non-conference portion of their schedule saw Idaho slow the pace down significantly and I think we see that here. Houston is going to live in the mid-range here and the Cougars have struggled shooting the ball all year. I dont know if we see the positive regression here but they have to start shooting it better if they want to make a deep run. We should see virtually zero fast break activity and this game should be played entirely in the half-court. Slow burning grinder, and an under. Idaho may not break 50.
03-19-26	North Dakota State v. Michigan State UNDER 143.5		67-92	Loss	-105	73 h 38 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The North Dakota State Bison know they have to slow the pace down to a crawl here. They want no part of a track meet with Michigan State. North Dakota State is a rare Summit League team that is actually pretty good on the defensive end. They are 27th in defensive rebounding percentage nationally. Michigan State will beat them on the boards, but likely not quite as bad as they would many lower seeds. North Dakota State likes to shoot the ball from long range, but this game is played in an under venue and North Dakota State will have an excellent Michigan State defense in their face throughout the contest. Michigan State is 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are first in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. There won't be second chances for North Dakota State. A slower pace and a fairly big spread here should lead to this one staying below the posted total. On the under in this one.
03-19-26	McNeese State v. Vanderbilt OVER 150	Top	68-78	Loss	-110	71 h 27 m	Show
(4 Unit Top Play) The Southland is known for wild swings and a ton of fouling in this game and I could anticipate seeing both here in this one. McNeese will not be intimidated with the athleticism of Vanderbilt but stylistically we could see a game where the points are plentiful. McNeese plays a high energy defense and will trap and press but Vandy should torch that approach and find driving opportunities in the painted area. I would expect that Vandy seeks to score early in the possession and the 'Dors should be able to finish around the rim whenever they want. McNeese will score some points here against Vandy, but they are going to have to be careful about crashing the glass in this one. The Cowboys are a great offensive rebounding team per southland standards, but if they send guys to get the offensive boards here Vandy will run out on them and score 25 points in transition. The Cowboys foul more than just about anybody in the country and we could see easy put back opportunities for Vandy here as McNeese is one of the worst teams in the country at allowing offensive rebounds. I expect Vandy to score at will here in this one, but McNeese will ramp up the tempo and they do have some guys who can score and get to the rim. This is an over game.
03-19-26	South Florida +5.5 v. Louisville		79-83	Win	100	70 h 43 m	Show
3- unit play South Florida is very athletic and should be playing with sky-high confidence having won 14 of 15 games and breezing through the American Conference tournament. The Bulls will be comfortable with the tempo Louisville wants to operate in and can really force the issue on the offensive end. Louisville guard Mikel Brown will not play in this one and his absence should be felt here. The Cardinals have been very inconsistent in their three-point shooting and have actually slowed the tempo of late, a consequence of having to be more methodical in the half-court. South Florida is very motivated and has the talent to hang in here with Louisville in a game that should come down to the wire. This is too many points in a game I think USF can win.
03-19-26	Troy State +13.5 v. Nebraska		47-76	Loss	-115	69 h 52 m	Show
(3 Unit Play on Troy) The Troy Trojans have played some great basketball late in the season. Troy's Scott Cross is a really underrated head coach. Cross is 91-72 ATS as an underdog at UT Arlington and Troy. His team has thrived in these roles. Troy is outside the top 300 in the country in tempo this season. They'll slow things dwon in this one. The Trojans already proved they can play with higher rated teams too. Troy went on the road and beat San Diego State in double overtime. They followed that up by losing in triple overtime at USC in a very tough spot. Their road win at UAB was a solid win too. Nebraska played tremendous basketball early in the season. The Cornhuskers have slipped a bit in recent weeks. Their offense has been less efficient. Troy is a veteran team that is unlikely to be in awe of the moment. Nebraska hasn't been in this situation in recent past either. I think that makes them more vulnerable than the average #4 seed. We'll grab the points here.
03-18-26	Lehigh v. Prairie View A&M +3.5		55-67	Win	100	17 h 15 m	Show
(3 Unit Play on Prairie View A&M) The Prairie View A&M Panthers certainly didn't look like an NCAA Tournament team earlier in the season. They were getting crushed on a regular basis early in the season. The team really turned a corner late on the defensive end of the floor though. They are forcing a very high rate of turnovers. Prairie View A&M has allowed 67 points or fewer in six straight games. This is a team that has athletes and tons of speed on the floor at all times. Lehigh was the surprise winner of the Patriot League Tournament. Navy was very good this season, but the Patriot League in general was way down. Lehigh didn't beat a team ranked higher than 238th in KenPom's rankings this season. Their inability to take care of the basketball could really hurt them in this game. The SWAC and Patriot League are similar power rated conferences this year. I don't see the justification for Lehigh laying more than a full possession here. Take the underdog here.
03-17-26	NC-Wilmington +5.5 v. Yale		68-67	Win	100	19 h 40 m	Show
3-unit play UNCW has a very balanced team and should be able to live at the rim and in the post. Patrick Wessler is going to be able to accumulate paint touches and the wingmen should have an athletic advantage here for the Seahawks, who have come together and rallied the troops after a disappointing CAA tournament. Yale is still in shock 48-hours after blowing a lead against Penn with a trip to the NCAA Tournament at stake. I am not overly sure how the Bulldogs get off the mat here and respond, given the quick turnaround and lack of time between traveling back from Ithica and now trying to prep for UNCW. UNCW has a better defensive team and should be able to make the operation tough on Nick Townsend and the Bulldogs. Offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities will be limited. We like UNCW to cover the 5.5 here.
03-15-26	Wichita State v. South Florida -5.5		55-70	Win	100	14 h 2 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) South Florida is very athletic and will seek to run out in transition against Wichita State and create opportunities at the rim. The Shockers are a fairly solid defensive team in the AAC but it is not a strong rim protecting unit and South Florida had success in both regular season meetings in getting to the rim and the charity stripe. I think USF is better conditioned playing in back to back games here, and while both squads come in hot here, I want to ride the hot hand of Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion who each have scored 20 or more points in back to back games, and should have open looks here. The quick strike offense will have success here and should handle the pressure well against the Shockers. When forced to shoot its way back into the game, I am not confident WSU will be able to bury the three point shot routinely enough to keep this game within striking distance. Lay it.
03-14-26	Virginia +8.5 v. Duke		70-74	Win	100	18 h 20 m	Show
(3 Unit Play on Virginia) The Virginia Cavaliers were dominated at Duke a few weeks ago, but outside of that loss they have won their last 13 games. A 13-1 record in that kind of span is ultra impressive, even if the ACC is down some this season. Virginia's defense is underrated. The Cavs have two elite shot blockers. Virginia is 5th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cavs are second nationally in blocked shot percentage. The innovative ShotQualityBets website data showed that based on the quality of shots taken in the game last night, Clemson should have beaten Duke. The Blue Devils squeaked by in a one point win over FSU two days ago. Duke is still shorthanded and I think this price is disrespectful toward Virginia. This should be a slower paced game where it is tough to win by a big margin. Back Virginia.
03-13-26	Clemson v. Duke UNDER 134.5		61-73	Win	100	20 h 54 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) Clemson knows the way they have a chance in a game like this is to slow things down and win with their defense. The Tigers are 19th nationally in defensive efficiency. Clemson is 336th in average tempo. Brad Brownell's teams are consistently good at slowing the pace down and forcing opponents to play their style. Duke is first nationally in defensive efficiency. The Blue Devils are elite on the defensive boards (7th) and when it comes to FTA/FGA allowed (2nd nationally). This team gets a lot of credit for their offense, but the defense is even better. The first game between these two was a 67-54 game, and we think this one could fall in the lower 120's once again. A game in the halfcourt with two elite defenses. We'll take the under.
03-13-26	Davidson v. St. Joe's UNDER 133		58-70	Win	100	18 h 21 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) Low and Slow is what we should see here between these two. Davidson plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country and should really throttle it down here against the St. Joes defense which will make Davidson worth methodically on the offensive end. I expect many long possessions for the Wildcats and we have seen this group struggle shooting the ball while failing to break 70 points three games in a row. The first meeting between these two finished 62-56 and that was with a higher than expected amount of foul shots. These offenses are not typically ones that provoke trips to the stripe and I do not anticipate many foul shots in this one. SJU has been off a while and there might be a little rust to knock off before this offense finds its groove and I trust both of these defenses to keep the offenses working deep into the shot clock here. With average shooting percentages, this should stay under.
03-13-26	Miami-FL v. Virginia UNDER 144		62-84	Loss	-110	17 h 20 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) Virginia's defense has led the way to their tremendous season this year. The Cavs have two elite shot blockers patrolling the paint. Virginia Coach Ryan Odom is a good defensive mind, and this Virginia team is 6th in effective field goal percentage defense. Virginia is 261st in overall pace of play. The Cavs are good on the offensive glass, and that has created a lot of scoring opportunities for them this year. Miami is first in the ACC in defensive rebounding though. Miami does not create free throw opportunities, so they'll have to be knocking down shots from the floor. On defense, Miami creates turnovers and Virginia does struggle on the offensive end with too many turnovers at times. Look for the under to come through in a tight game here.
03-13-26	Charlotte v. UAB -3.5		83-78	Loss	-110	13 h 33 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) Charlotte has been struggling during the 2nd half of the conference schedule as the 49ers just dont have the defense to procure stops and limit their opponents. They do not force turnovers or apply a lot of pressure and we believe they will be overwhelmed by the athleticism of UAB in the front court. CHance Westry is shooting the ball really well for UAB and the defense does well to defend without fouling better than anyone in the AAC. The offense takes care of the ball well, and the Blazers really have success in this league against the bottom-tier defenses, one of which they will line up against today. We like UAB in this spot here.
03-12-26	Georgetown v. Villanova UNDER 142.5		78-64	Win	100	19 h 38 m	Show
3-unit play under Georgetown has slowed the pace down considerably the second half of the season despite playing Xavier, St. Johns and Providence who all want to run on their opponents. The Hoyas are good at getting their opponents deep into the possession clock and making them work for everything on this end of the floor. Nova is deliberate on the offensive end so I do expect their possessions to be longer, and despite taking 44% of their shots from the outside, are not a strong shooting team from deep. We should see several empty possessions for the Wildcats here as they are a poor offensive rebounding team, and the defense should have success for Nova against Georgetown when the Hoyas have possessions. GT is one of the worst shooting teams in the Big East, and I do not foresee them getting efficient paint touches or trips to the line. The pace should be slow, the venue has been one that necessitates unders at a high rate, and I dont think GT scores enough here to trigger late game fouling at the end. Under.
03-12-26	Loyola-Chicago v. Davidson -6.5		59-64	Loss	-110	17 h 50 m	Show
3-unit play Loyola was very fortunate against lowly Richmond as the Ramblers scored 30 points in the final 10 minutes and won a game it had no business winning. This group was down 15 points with 12 minutes to go but rallied the troops, and that comeback should have Davidson completely focused here in this matchup. The Wildcats won both meetings this season by 13+ points while shooting 26/58 from deep in the two meetings. I expect Davidson to find free shooters to get good looks while lining up against the worst three-point defense in the A-10. Loyola doesnt guard the three point line well, they do not force turnovers, and have not been very efficient in league play. This game should be played at a slower than anticipated pace, potentially 62 possessions or less. The Ramblers struggled shooting against this Davidson defense in both meetings this season while scoring 64 points in each game. I do not think Loyola will have magic strike twice here and if you look at the performance yesterday in the first 10 minutes, you will see it was horrific. I want to back Davidson here.
03-12-26	Florida State +18 v. Duke	Top	79-80	Win	100	17 h 50 m	Show
(4 Unit Top Play Florida State) Quietly, Florida State has been playing some really good basketball of late. The Seminoles are 10-2 in their last 12 games. They have wins at Clemson, at Virginia Tech, and home against SMU in the last few weeks. Florida State is great at turning over teams. The Duke Blue Devils are without their starting point guard here. Of course Duke has solid depth here, but it will be a challenge going against the aggressive pressure from Florida State. Duke has already tipped their hand that they aren't going to play their stars heavy minutes in this tournament. They are looking forward to bigger things ahead. Should Duke really be laying 18 points against a red hot team with everything in the world to play for when the Blue Devils don't have their star point guard and are just trying to get by to the next day? We're happy to grab all the points here. Back Florida State.
03-12-26	Nevada v. Grand Canyon UNDER 139.5		84-80	Loss	-110	15 h 22 m	Show
3-unit play This game will look a lot different for Nevada compared to that of their first opponent, Air Force. Both of these teams are going to operate slowly in the half court and GCU possessions specifically should be long and methodical. I expect these two defenses to show up here as we have the number 1 and number 4 overall defenses in the MWC squaring off. The game between these two this season was 66-60 with an overtime session as Nevada did an excellent job blanketing shooters, and avoiding sending GCU to the stripe. Grand Canyon is excellent at defending without fouling and should keep this an honest game with limited foul opportunities, which will force Nevada to make open jumpers from the mid-range, something they are one of the worst in the MWC at doing. Important game, with a lot on the line. I expect the 2nd half to be played at a slower pace. We like under here.
03-11-26	Wake Forest v. Clemson -4.5		62-71	Win	100	21 h 44 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) Clemson was embarrassed a couple of weeks back against Wake Forest off a loss against Duke, but this Tigers team needs to get some positive mojo going before hitting the NCAA Tournament, and I think we see that here. This defense is the third-best in the ACC and does well to force turnovers, and prohibit offensive rebounds. Wake is not a strong shooting team and I suspect this offensive output will look a little bit differently against Clemson the 2nd time around. I trust Brad Brownell to get this defense in better position to defend the scheme, and Clemson is going to hit some shots in this game. Wake was very fortunate to get by Virginia Tech who was without Amani Hansberry but the Deacs were out of position consistently defensively, and VT was able to penetrate the lane and get good looks in close, they just could not convert. I am confident of Clemson being able to get to the rim here. Clemson is a much better team and should win this game by 10 points.
03-11-26	Loyola-Chicago v. Richmond UNDER 145.5		75-67	Win	100	13 h 6 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) I fully expect Loyola to struggle against this Richmond defense as they did in the most recent meeting a couple of weeks back. The Ramblers have the worst offense in the A-10 and have to slow the pace significantly in order to stay in this game. Richmond has slowed the pace and tempo the 2nd half of the season, and the Spiders are not an overly good shooting team. Neither one of these offenses can accumulate offensive rebounds and 2nd chance opportunities well, so this should be a game filled with missed shots and "one and done" possessions. Richmond should control the game and Loyola will not be close enough at the end to trigger late game fouling. Under.
03-11-26	Maryland +12 v. Iowa		64-75	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) Analysis coming
03-10-26	Monmouth v. Hofstra UNDER 136.5		69-75	Loss	-110	16 h 39 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The CAA title game is here. Hofstra and Monmouth square off in this one. The trend has been heavy toward unders in the mid-major final games. Hofstra and Towson played very slowly in their overtime showdown last night. Even the Monmouth and Campbell game only had 67 possessions last night. Both regular season games between these two teams stayed under the total. One of those games went under despite going into overtime. Monmouth has struggled at times with turnovers on offense. Hofstra settles for long range jumpers too often some times. A win or go home game between two solid teams. We'll go under the total.
03-09-26	Nuggets v. Thunder UNDER 233		126-129	Loss	-110	6 h 41 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The Nuggets and Thunder met in an epic overtime contest recently. That game was 107-107 going into overtime. The Thunder have easily been the best defense in the NBA efficiency wise in the last few weeks. Oklahoma City has multiple lockdown defenders. The Nuggets are unlikely to want a track meet type game against the Thunder with OKC having the athleticism advantage overall. Denver is a good halfcourt offense, but the Thunder have better frontcourt defensive options than most teams. A game between two very good teams late in the season trends toward the under per all the angles. Under.
03-09-26	Furman v. East Tennessee State -1		76-61	Loss	-110	5 h 60 m	Show
3-unit play ETSU has been the best team in the SOCON all season but the path for the Buccaneers has not been easy in this tournament run. ETSU has struggled with The Citadel and WCU and was in serious danger of dropping its contest against the Catamounts on Sunday afternoon. Furman on the other hand has eeeked out a couple of coin flip wins against Samford and UNCG but this team did lose five of eight games down the stretch, including two against this ETSU squad. ETSU has done an excellent job against Furman in defending the outside shots as the Paladins have made just 13/59 shots from deep in the two prior meetings. Furman has also had a problem with the pressure ETSU likes to apply defensively and has seen the turnovers pile up. Furman commits turnovers at a rate higher than anyone else in the Southern Conference with wide margin, and ETSU forces more takeaways than anyone else in the league. ETSU has the top interior defense in the conference and Furman should struggle to manifest post touches and good looks inside. I expect ETSU to clean up on the glass and there should be empty trips for Furman on this end. With the way this game will be played, any extended lead will feel magnified and at the end, I want the best foul shooting team in the conference in ETSU to get it done at the stripe and close it out.
03-08-26	Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 223		120-145	Loss	-110	17 h 35 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The Rockets and Spurs are very familiar with each other, and this should be a high intensity game. The Spurs are a top two or three defense in the NBA now with their shot blocking ability and athleticism on the perimeter. Houston will try to slow the pace down here, and San Antonio's offense has been inconsistent in recent weeks. Late season games between good teams have been strong to the under in general, and when it is a divisional game it is even stronger. Under the total.
03-08-26	Boston University v. Navy -7		73-72	Loss	-110	10 h 25 m	Show
3-unit play Navy was in a much tighter battle than expected in the opener against Bucknell as the Middies were down 8 points in the 2nd half before making a big run and taking control to advance. This Navy team is the best team in the Patriot League with wide margin and should be focused and ready to go after the opening round scare. Navy swept Boston U this season and did a great job against the Terriers three point shooting limiting them to just 33% from deep in the two meetings. Boston had just 41 points at the under-10 minute mark of the 2nd half in the first meeting which saw Austin Benigni and Aidan Kehoe take over. Navy did a great job getting to the line and getting the Boston big men into foul trouble and I would guess Navy works the post in this one here. Strangely in the 2nd meeting Navy was down 14-0 in the first six minutes before holding the Terriers to just 36 points the rest of the way, as the defense equally effective in the second meeting. I trust the Navy defense to show up here and the emergence of Jinwoo Kim burying the three ball has been a critical lifeline for the Middies offense. After how the 2nd meeting went with Boston this year and how the 1st round game against Bucknell played out, I fully expect we see a fully locked in Navy team who has the talent to win this game by a dozen. Lay it.
03-08-26	Queens NC v. Central Arkansas -2.5		98-93	Loss	-110	10 h 25 m	Show
3-unit play Central Arkansas has really shown up defensively in the ASUN tournament with strong performances against Bellarmine and FGCU and the Bears did a great job against Queens during the 2nd meeting which took place last week. UCA held Queens to just 24 points in the first half and limited the open looks from deep as the Royals made just 10 of 34 from deep. Queens is not likely to be able to penetrate the lane against the UCA defense so they are going to have to rely on the outside shooting, where Queens ranks just 8th in the ASUN in 3-point percentage on offense. It is however on defense where I think Queens could struggle. This defense is not overly efficient and struggles with sending their opponents to the line. Avantae Parker and Maban Jabriel have struggled recently with fouls and have had to sit the bench more routinely than expected, and I dont think we can count on this defense to get stops. UCA averaged 1.22 points per possessions in the two meetings played this season, and I trust the strongest and hottest team in this league to win and get the Auto-Bid.
03-07-26	Southern Miss v. Appalachian State UNDER 135.5		86-73	Loss	-105	16 h 4 m	Show
3-unit play App State did a great job in the first meeting against Southern Miss and limited this opponent to just 27 first half points and 42 total points at the under 10-mark of the 2nd half. The Golden Eagles made just 21 total shots in the contest as one player on the team only, made a three point shot. I like a well-rested App State defense to show up here and be ready to go in a tournament where three of the conference favorites have already been knocked out. The Mountaineers play slower than anyone in the conference and one of the slowest operating tempos in the country, and I would imagine we see a slower pace for Southern Miss having played twice already. This is a quick turnaround and the wrong opponent to try to run on. Southern Miss does get to the line a lot, but App State has the 2nd best defensive free throw rate in the conference and I expect the Mountaineers to be in good defending position here. App State's primary three-point threat is Jalen Tot off the bench and he will throw up a ton of them. He has been a bit cooler in shooting of late here, and with this being a conference tournament game I would expect a little nerves from the App State shooter early on. This should be a slow burning grinder.
03-07-26	Indiana v. Ohio State UNDER 149		78-91	Loss	-110	15 h 24 m	Show
3-unit play This is a critically important game for both, although the Buckeyes have a much more defined path to the NCAA Tournament. All doubt gets removed if Ohio State picks up there 12th win in league play today and gets a head to head win over a fellow bubble foe. I like how Ohio State has played recently and the Buckeyes have been much better on the defensive end recently. This game should be played at a slow pace, 62-64 total possessions, and these teams are both going to be methodical on the offensive end. Expect long possessions, and contested jumpers. Both defenses rebound the ball well but Indiana on the road its last two games has scored 51 and 64 points and just is incapable of consistently hitting shots. Tayton Conerway hasnt been logging a ton of minutes lately and I think Ohio State can stop the effectiveness of Tucker DeVreis here. We are diving under.
03-07-26	Drake v. Illinois-Chicago -5.5		51-72	Win	100	13 h 8 m	Show
3-unit play Drake has been on an improbable run winning two games as underdogs in the MVC conference tournament, but I think the magic stops here against a very underrated Flames defense. Rob Ehsan has stressed defense down the stretch and the defense stepped up big for UIC yesterday against Murray State as the Flames were up 52-33 at half. Drake has the hot hand but I doubt very seriously that these guys are going to shoot 20/26 from 2-point range against UIC or get to the stripe 31 times like they did against Belmont, who just had zero juice or energy while failing to show up. UIC has shown up and I like Elijah Crawford and Andy Johnson to expose this bad Drake defense. Remember, this team lost nine in a row to close out the regular season, and were swept by UIC in the regular season. The Flames are an emerging team in this league and the side I want to be behind here in this one.
03-07-26	Virginia Tech v. Virginia UNDER 146.5		72-76	Loss	-112	11 h 31 m	Show
3-unit play The first meeting between these two rivals saw the game tied at 55 after regulation, and I foresee this one being another defensive battle. This matchup sees the 7th and 2nd most efficient defense squaring off against one another and I do not think the Hokies will be able to nail the outside shot against the UVA defense, which ranks number one in the conference in successful outside shooting allowed. VT does not have a strong post presence that is going to control the game or get easy buckets at the rim against Virginia, so scoring the basketball could be an issue here. Neither team gets to the line frequently enough and Va Tech is excellent at defending without fouling. We should see long possessions, and very little second chance opportunities for the Hokies here. I think this total is about five points too high, we are on the under.
03-07-26	North Carolina-Asheville v. High Point -11.5		71-75	Loss	-115	10 h 49 m	Show
3-unit play High Point was challenged earlier this season after giving up so many points to Gardner-Webb and the very next game surrendered just 48 against UNC-Asheville, including 19 in the first half. The Bulldogs play slow, cannot shoot, and are one of the worst foul shooting teams in the conference. After a thrilling late game win in OT against Longwood, this is now a quick turnaround against the best offense in the league. I expect tired legs and short jumpers for Asheville, who in both regular season meetings were down by 20 points against the Panthers late in the 2nd half of both. I just dont think that UNCA is going to be able to score enough and the defense should get gassed the last 10 minutes of the 2nd Half. Asheville has struggled when playing quick turnaround games this season, and I think we see that here. High Point should score on these guys, especially after playing with their food a little bit yesterday against Gardner-Webb, but the defense stepped up and showed that it has lock down capabilities. I am okay laying the number here.
03-06-26	Miami-OH v. Ohio UNDER 160.5		110-108	Loss	-110	20 h 15 m	Show
3 unit play under We have seen Miami of Ohio struggle on the road in conference play of late, relative to their high output expectations from prior. The Redhawks have slowed the tempo down a hair, and have not been as efficient, seeing their points per possession drop from 1.22 down to 1.07 in recent games. While it does not seem significant, this can make all the difference in a total, when a team is playing slower and is less efficient. The result here should be a game in the 70's, not the 80's. Miami has a lot of pressure on them tonight, and I would not be surprised at all if we see them start out slowly, maybe play a little tight. Aside from that, this defense has been very efficient and Ohio U cannot shoot the ball from deep. The Bobcats are one of the worst three-point shooting teams from deep in the entire country and worst in the MAC. Ohio needs to slow this tempo down, something we have seen in three of its last four games. I think we see the possessions matter late in this game, causing a slow down late, and I expect this one to finish under the posted total.
03-06-26	Nebraska-Omaha v. South Dakota UNDER 151.5		76-62	Win	100	18 h 55 m	Show
3-unit play under Omaha plays as slowly as anybody in the Summit league and historically in this tournament under head coach Chris Crutchfield, the opening round games involving Omaha in this venue have stayed comfortably under. These two split the regular season with both games trending hard to the under, with the 2nd game going over due to hot Coyote shooting and 58 combined free throw attempts. The Yotes will have the crowd on hand in Sioux Falls for this one and I expect these guys to give a spirited defensive effort against Omaha, who does have one of the least efficient offensive teams in this league. Neither team shoots particularly well from deep and both are poor in securing offensive rebounds or 2nd chance opportunities. We should see plenty of "one and done" possessions and I would expect significantly fewer foul shots than we saw from these two teams two weeks ago. Under
03-06-26	Sacred Heart v. Merrimack UNDER 146		48-70	Win	100	16 h 20 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) Sacred Heart hs played better the 2nd half of the conference season but this team did find themselves in some defensive slogs down the stretch and I would anticipate its game against Merrimack looks a lot different than the one we saw them play last night. A game that had 63 points in the half with Iona exploded for the Pioneers and featured 108 2nd half points, but that is not a normal occurrence for Merrimack. The Warriors have the best defensive team in the conference and are excellent at controlling the pace of play. I expect Joe Gallo and this defense to be fully locked in here and get the game flow to be one they are comfortable with. Merrimack is tops in the MAAC in blocking or altering shots on defense, turnovers forced, steals accumulated, and they contest everything from deep. SHU wants to bomb away from deep and the Pioneers buried 13 of them last night, but this defense is going to be hard to get open looks on and I expect alot of front-end rim misses due to perhaps some tired legs after just having played last night. Merrimack operates at a slow tempo and this venue has been excellent for the under. I want to go low here.
03-06-26	Drake v. Belmont -11.5		100-79	Loss	-110	12 h 24 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) Belmont was left with a bad taste in the mouth after an ugly collapse late at Illinois State in the regular season finale. The Bruins are clearly the team with the highest upside in the MVC, and I think we see a very focused Belmont team in this game. Belmont's innovative sets on offense are major problems for this Drake defense that gets lost far too often. Belmont is excellent at moving away from the basketball. Drake was down for most of the game against Southern Illinois and they came back to win late. Belmont is rested up and ready to come with their A game. Back Belmont.
03-06-26	Gardner-Webb v. High Point UNDER 161.5	Top	59-81	Win	100	12 h 31 m	Show
(4 Unit Top Play) High Point's coaching staff was very disappointed after their 112-87 win over Gardner Webb in the second regular season game. Flynn Cayman challenged his players in the locker room and spoke to the press about his disappointed in their defense. They came out and looked great on defense in their next game. I don't think High Point will look nearly as bad on defense this time around. The defensive intensity should be at a high level. Gardner Webb has actually slowed their pace down some in recent weeks. This is an offense that should really be bothered by High Point's shot blocking led by Aquino. High Point isn't likely to want to run up the score as much when they know they have to win this tournament and save up their top players. This is such a high point total. We're going with the under.
03-05-26	Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 241.5		113-120	Win	100	9 h 46 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets have had a bunch of high profile showdowns in recent seasons. These teams have been inconsistent this year, but both do have a high upside. The Lakers defense has stepped up in their last three games. They have allowed only 101, 104, and 101 points in their last three contests. The Nuggets held the Celtics to 84 points and the Thunder to 107 points in regulation in recent games. A big game for both teams with a playoff feel. We're on the under.
03-05-26	South Dakota State v. St. Thomas UNDER 150.5		67-80	Win	100	20 h 28 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) Analysis soon The Jacks do not have the same potent offense that we have come accustomed to seeing with South Dakota State, and they are shooting less three point shots and playing slower in league play. The defense has been better of late and does well to limit offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities. This offense has struggled against the Tommies who sport the 2nd best defense in this conference. UST has held SDSU in the 60's for point total twice including seeing just 12/49 three point shots made. I would expect we see a slower than expected pace and poor shooting from the Jacks in this matchup. The Jacks have allowed the 2nd fewest three point shots in the conference and SDSU has done well to defend and contest shots from the outside. In a matchup between the 2nd and 3rd most efficient defense in this conference, I think we see a game that stays under the total.
03-05-26	Pepperdine v. Portland OVER 151.5		68-77	Loss	-110	20 h 0 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) The Waves have completely revamped their style of play and the results have not only been significantly higher scoring games, but Pepperdine did win three of its last five games down the stretch. Styles Phipps and Aaron Clark have been much more aggressive at the rim and they are getting to the stripe more frequently. The lack of defensive intensity is evident, and Portland was able to shred the Waves by shooting 71% from inside the arc in their last meeting. I would imagine that these guys waste little time getting paint touches and working the inside/outside game with Joel Foxwell and Dante Censori-Hercules/ James ODonnell. Pepperdine is going to score here and we have seen their games elongated due to an extended "late game fouling" scenario, which could certainly play out here as well. I look for this one to go over this total.
03-05-26	Manhattan v. Fairfield -5		60-71	Win	100	19 h 28 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) These two split during the regular season but I like how Fairfield has been playing down the stretch, winning five of seven with solid wins over Quinnipiac, Siena and Marist during that stretch. The Stags are shooting the basketball better and the offensive continuity has improved down the stretch. Braden Sparks has been shooting it better and been more agressive at the rim. Manhattan has the worst defense of anyone in this conference and surrendered 98 points the last time these two squared off. I expect the Stags to have open looks from deep and the size advantage in the painted area should create several blocked or altered shots against Manhattan. Manhattan feasted on the bottom feeders of this league over the last two months of the season but I do not foresee this team giving a serious threat in this game. I am okay laying the number here with the Stags.
03-04-26	Chicago State v. Long Island UNDER 139		75-79	Loss	-110	19 h 2 m	Show
3- unit play- LIU has the best defense in this conference and just had a recent meeting with Chicago State where the Sharks held these guys to 56 points. Chicago State has been in the mid-50s for points in both meetings and does have one of the worst shooting offenses in the country. LIU should be fully locked in here on defense and I expect the pace to be fairly slow in this NEC tournament game. LIU has the best three point defense in the conference and should have a lot of success defending the painted area here. I expect very little activity at the foul line for Chicago State in this matchup. LIU is not a great shooting team from deep and the Sharks do not shoot a lot of them. LIU has struggled with turnovers quite a bit this season and that should lead to some empty possessions, leading to an under.
03-04-26	St. Joe's v. Davidson UNDER 138		70-67	Win	100	19 h 1 m	Show
3- unit play- This is a matchup of two of the better defensive teams in the A10 and I think that Davidson will have success controlling the pace here in this game. The Wildcats are not as lethal from deep as they once were, and the three-point shooting has been hot and cold for them this year. St. Joes has a very stout three point defense so I expect every deep shot contested here in this game. Neither team gets to the strip frequently so there should be minimal points scored with the clock stopped. Saint Joes has been winning games recently with its defense and has seen five of its last six games stay under this total. We like the under tonight.
03-04-26	Fordham v. La Salle UNDER 134.5		84-87	Loss	-110	19 h 32 m	Show
3- unit play- write up coming soon.
03-03-26	Kent State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 149		102-76	Loss	-110	21 h 36 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) Northern Illinois has struggled so badly on the offensive end having failed to break 70 points in seven of its last 10 games overall. This is the worst shooting team in the MAC ranking dead last in three point shooting, foul shooting, and amount of shots that are blocked or altered. The Huskies cannot hold onto the basketball and routinely are forced into errant passes, shot clock violations, or other careless turnovers resulting in empty possessions. The Huskies have slowed down their tempo toward the end of the season and we should see Kent State play to NIU's pace here on the road. I would expect this game to be played south of 70 total possessions, slower than expected. Kent State has their own issues with turning the basketball over and this team has really struggled shooting the ball. The offense is not overly efficient and the offense has not been nearly as potent on the road. NIU is 16-2 to the under in league play and we expect that to continue here.
03-03-26	NC-Wilmington -4.5 v. Elon		76-57	Win	100	20 h 50 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) UNCW was completely able to shut down Elon in the first meeting and the Phoenix have been in the midst of a free-fall the last five weeks, losing nine of their last 11 games overall. The Elon defense has been awful and should get eaten alive on the offensive glass by the size of UNCW in this one, leading to second chance opportunities and easy putbacks by the UNCW big men. UNCW has a chance to clinch the regular season CAA title tonight, and this group has been hot while building a 14-3 conference record. The emergence of Jahnathan Lamothe give the Seahawks another strong option and I worry about how Elon is going to effectively defend Patrick Wessler on the block. UNCW is a superior team and should win this game tonight comfortably.
03-03-26	Hampton v. William & Mary OVER 153.5		85-94	Win	100	19 h 14 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) There is a pace war here on the surface but Hampton has been playing faster of late, and their games are complete foul fests night in and night out. I would expect upwards of 60 foul shots to be attempted here in this one as Hampton is the worst defense in the conference at sending its opponents to the foul line, while W&M is the best team offensively at getting to the stripe. Points with the clock stopped are a huge boost here, but Hampton had success in the first meeting offensively while burying 9 three point shots and scoring 77 points in r February road win. Every game for the Tribe has cleared this total since the February 5th meeting with Hampton and I expect a ton of points in the season finale for both teams.
03-01-26	Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 238.5		117-108	Win	100	13 h 36 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The Denver Nuggets defense has impressed in recent weeks. Denver held the Boston Celtics to 84 points a couple games ago. They then held Oklahoma City to 107 in regulation in their last game. Minnesota is capable of breaking out with a big number on offense, but this is a solid Minnesota defense as well. The two offenses are very good, but this is an extremely high number. The late in the regular season NBA games between top notch teams are spots where we like to look for unders. Back the under.
03-01-26	Purdue -6 v. Ohio State		74-82	Loss	-114	3 h 55 m	Show
3-unit play Purdue has struggled with the supremely talented teams in the Big 10 this season, namely Michigan, Illinois and Michigan State, but the Boilers do have a very efficient offense and should find success both at the rim and from deep against Ohio State. The Buckeyes have struggled on the glass defensively and are one of the worst teams in the Big 10 in defensive free-throw rate surrendered. I think Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff will be too much down low and Purdue should be very efficient and score some points here today. Purdue is likely in prove it mode here during the home stretch as the Boilers have let some games get away from them that I am sure they felt they should have won, and they should clean up on the glass here in this one defensively. If the shots are not falling for Ohio State, they will struggle to keep pace and score points on Purdue, who I ultimately think will win this game by double digits.
02-28-26	Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 144		59-70	Win	100	19 h 10 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The Gonzaga Bulldogs and St. Mary's Gaels have had a bunch of fantastic contests against each other in recent years. The strong trend on those games is for them to stay under the posted total. These teams know each other extremely well, and they are the two best defenses in an underrated WCC. St. Mary's doesn't want a track meet against Gonzaga. Randy Bennett's teams have been great at dictating tempo in these matchups in the past. I don't see any reason why that won't be the case again here. Gonzaga is really underrated on defense this year. The injuries they have now slow the offense, but the defense is even better. We'll side with the under.
02-28-26	Washington State v. Pepperdine OVER 157	Top	79-88	Win	100	17 h 49 m	Show
(4 Unit Top Play) The Pepperdine Waves are giving up nearly 1.2 points per possession in conference action. They have allowed 83 points or more in a stunning ten straight games. This defense appears to not even be putting in the effort anymore. Washington State shoots it well from the outside and they should have a bunch of open shots here. Pepperdine has been shooting it well lately. Some of their backups have been getting more time lately, and they are spot up shooters. Neither team has much of anything to play for and that helps the cause for points in the final game of the regular season. Over!
02-28-26	Air Force v. Wyoming OVER 147		62-66	Loss	-110	13 h 46 m	Show
(3 Unit Over) The Wyoming Cowboys should take advantage of an Air Force Falcons defense that simply has fallen off in a huge way in recent weeks. Air Force is routinely giving up excellent shooting numbers to opponents. Wyoming has been happy to run when they have the lead against weaker teams. That should be the case in this one. Wyoming's defense has been struggling a lot lately, and Air Force can shoot the three ball. On the over.
02-28-26	Fordham v. VCU UNDER 145		63-82	Push	0	9 h 12 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) VCU is good offensively, but Fordham has been elite on defense in the last month. VCU's defense is better than many believe. Fordham is a bottom ten tempo team in the country. Fordham has been able to slow down the pace against everyone. They recently brought the pace down against VCU. I think they can do it again here. This total is several points too high. Take under.
02-28-26	St. Joe's v. Rhode Island UNDER 142		61-55	Win	100	9 h 48 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The Rhode Island Rams and St. Joe's Hawks are both better on defense than offense. They have both slowed their pace down quite a bit from a year ago as well. This projects as the type of game where both teams go through some scoring droughts and keep it lower scoring. St. Joe's shot the ball really well in their last game and that is propping this total up. I think they come back down to earth here. We'll take the under.
02-27-26	Merrimack v. Canisius UNDER 131.5		62-67	Win	100	18 h 6 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The Merrimack Warriors have played two straight games that went into overtime to send the game over the total. Merrimack is still the elite zone defense that causes matchup nightmares for opponents. Canisius is 332nd in the nation in tempo. The Golden Griffins are 358th out of 365 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. This is the worst offense in the MAAC. I don't expect them to fare well against the Merrimack defense. They turn it over too much and they don't crash the offensive glass very well. Merrimack both gets to the line and shoots the 3 ball a lot. Canisius is better on defense in those two areas than they are in most areas defensively. The pace here should be extremely slow. We'll go with the under.
02-27-26	Miami-OH v. Western Michigan OVER 161.5		69-67	Loss	-105	17 h 12 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Over) Miami OH has had a few tougher road trips against UMass and EMU in recent weeks as the Redhawks continue its quest of finishing this season undefeated. This should be a spot where the offense gets whatever they want in the lane in squaring off against the worst defensive unit in the MAC. WMU cannot defend in the lane and should send Miami to the foul line a ton here in this one. Antwane Woolfolk and Brant Byers should have easy looks at the rim, and shooters will be open for Miami OH. The first matchup saw Miami win 87-76 and that was with poor shooting from Miami from deep. I expect Miami to be able to run here and for WMU to match the pace, which should see 75 possessions or more. WMU has shooters and this offense can be potent. I expect a higher scoring game
02-26-26	Stetson v. Jacksonville UNDER 140		85-89	Loss	-110	17 h 52 m	Show
(3 Unit Play) This is a game we recently saw where Jacksonville and Stetson played a 67-62 game that saw 63 total possessions and I think the pace will be similar here. The game had 51 total free throw attempts and the shooting was poor. Jacksonville actually has a decent ASUN defense and wants to see this game played at a snails pace. This group did a wonderful job of slowing down Austin Peay last time out and I think they control the pace here as well. Jacksonville has a decent three point defense and Stetson is going to jack up a ton of three point shots here in this one. This is an important game for the Hatters as Stetson can move into a tie for sixth in the league standings if its wins out, and I think we see them lean toward a more conservative game flow approach in this one. Neither team should see 70 total points in this one. Under.
02-26-26	Stony Brook v. Monmouth OVER 142.5		69-82	Win	100	17 h 52 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Over) Monmouth was surging earlier in the month but it has dropped back to back affairs against the top two teams in the conference and the Hawks need a win in a big way here. This battle will go a long way in both teams trying to secure a top-4 seed in the CAA tournament, and Monmouth has been dangerous offensively with Kavion McClain in the lineup. I think we see Monmouth get back to attacking at the rim, freeing up Andrew Ball and Jason Rivera-Torres for open three point shots. The first meeting saw 151 points combined even with poor shooting and I think we see both teams ramp up the urgency here. Stony Brook has scored in the 70's in back to back contests against slow moving Hampton and Drexel and I will be intrigued to see how they run tempo here against Monmouth who will seek to do the same. over game.
02-26-26	Maine v. Albany UNDER 135.5		70-59	Win	100	16 h 21 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) Maine has the fourth worst efficient offense in the country and the Black Bears routinely play at one of the slowest tempos around. Having Keelan Steele and Bashir N'Galang out of the mix has really stressed this offense and I think we could see that here in this matchup. Albany is not going to be in a hurry and the Great Danes have slowed the tempo down significantly the last month of the season. Three of its last five games have been played at 60 possessions and that is what we should see here as well. Albany wont get to the stripe much in this game and they only shot 8 foul shots in the first matchup. The first matchup played to 57 possessions and barely broke 100 total points and while I dont think we see that low a score here, this should trend under.
02-26-26	College of Charleston v. Hampton UNDER 141.5		85-71	Loss	-110	9 h 53 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) Charleston's defense has been superb of late. Charleston has held four straight opponents to 66 points or fewer. Charleston is now up against one of the weaker offenses in the league in Hampton. Hampton also slows things down and tries to keep the game in the halfcourt. The Pirates have gotten to the line a lot this year, but Charleston is first in the CAA in FTA/FGA allowed. An extra early start time is a bit of a benefit here too. The strange midweek early start time could be tough for the jump shooters. Look for this one to stay under the total.
02-25-26	Seattle University v. Pepperdine OVER 143.5		87-80	Win	100	28 h 33 m	Show
3-unit play Stylistically Pepperdine has completely changed the way it is playing, opting for a more up tempo scheme with absolutely zero defense being played. The Waves have given up a ton of points at the rim, and will not be able to keep Seattle off the stripe. In the first meeting we saw Seattle with an 83-81 win and that was with horrific shooting from outside, just 4/17 from three-point range. There were a combined 57 free throw attempts in that first meeting, and Pepperdine did well to knock down shots. The Waves are playing loose and I expect this game to be one where both teams are in the 70's. Market agrees but has been late to adjust, and we like the over here.
02-25-26	Central Arkansas v. Austin Peay UNDER 152	Top	93-88	Loss	-105	18 h 60 m	Show
(4 Unit Top Play Under) The Atlantic Sun's top two teams will meet in Clarksville, Tennessee on Wednesday night. Austin Peay is the top ranked defense in the conference. Central Arkansas is the second ranked defense in terms of efficiency. Austin Peay has been aggressive going to the basket, and they are first in the league in FTA/FGA on offense. Central Arkansas has been the best defense in the league though when it comes to defending without fouling. They are also elite on the defensive boards. Austin Peay is the top 3 point defense in the league, and they have been running teams off the 3 point line as well. Central Arkansas is reliant on that long range jumper. The Governors are likely to make it tough on them. Neither of these teams get many second chance points. This is a game that means a ton to both teams. Austin Peay has won ten straight games. Central Arkansas has won 11 of their last 12. Under the total!
02-25-26	Maryland +18 v. Nebraska		61-74	Win	100	16 h 29 m	Show
(3 Unit Play on Maryland) Maryland has played really inspiring basketball over the last five games and has not quit on this season for Buzz Williams. The defense has been solid and just held Washington to 60 total points at home. Nebraska has three important games remaining after tonight's tilt and with the line where it is at, we feel that this is just too many points to give a feisty conference opponent that is still playing hard. Nebraska will not be able to procure trips to the line here and Maryland's three point defense should be able to do enough here to limit good looks for the Huskers. Maryland is a good rebounding team and should limit 2nd chance opportunities. Maryland likely will not win, but this is too many points.
02-24-26	San Jose State v. Air Force OVER 141.5		86-80	Win	100	20 h 55 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Over) Air Force has quit playing defense this season in the MWC and have surrendered 79 or more points in 10 straight games, 90+ the last four. San Jose State has been much more aggressive on the offensive end of late and have gone to a smaller lineup recently due to injury. This matchup pits the two worst defenses in the MWC together and this is a chance for Air Force to not only bomb away from deep as it usually does, but potentially work the paint a bit and get some trips to the line. Both squads have been playing faster the last three weeks of the season, and we should see more possessions than the first meeting. The first meeting saw 39 combined foul shots and I would expect more of the same here with both teams shooting 25+ three-point shots each. The 2nd half of the first meeting saw 84 points, and I would expect these teams waste no time getting into what works against the other. Over.
02-24-26	Buffalo v. Akron OVER 157.5		85-99	Win	100	18 h 55 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Over) Buffalo shot the ball very poorly in the last meeting and scored just 39 points with 10-minutes remaining in the 2H with Daniel Freitag out. He was at shootaround this morning and is questionable, but his offensive presence would be a big boost for the Bulls. Akron should shred Buffalo in the lane with Amani Lyles and Evan Mahaffey. The Zips are very good at moving without the ball and cutting in the paint and should approach 50 points in the paint here in this one. Buffalo has a very poor interior defense so expect Akron finishes at or close to the rim alot in this one. Akron's defense has been stout in MAC play this season but did get caught out of position a bit against Ball State who buried 13 three point shots against the Zips. Expect Buffalo to let it fly from deep with some makes, and quick run outs on the other end for Akron off long rebounds. This is an over game.
02-22-26	Towson v. Drexel UNDER 132.5		62-68	Win	100	12 h 10 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The Drexel Dragons are both the best defense in the CAA and the slowest paced team. Towson prefers to move slowly too. Towson is 343rd out of 365 in the country in overall tempo. These two teams are 308th and 305th in the nation in FTA/FGA on offense. There aren't likely to be many free throws in this game. These two teams are 30th and 105th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. The first meeting between these two was 59-58. This is likely a bit higher than the first one, but the line move up in the total has given us some extra value on the under. Back the under here.
02-21-26	St Bonaventure v. Richmond OVER 149		94-99	Win	100	15 h 5 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Over) St. Bonaventure is a completely different team from what they have been in recent years. This is one of the best offenses in the Atlantic 10 in terms of efficiency, and they are one of the worst defenses in the league. Mark Schmidt's team is usually known for defense, but this version is not like the others. Richmond is a weak defense as well, and the Spiders are playing relatively quickly on the offensive end. Both of these teams have had disappointing seasons compared to expectations, and this is a late season game where the motivation levels might not be terribly high. We're on the over.
02-21-26	Troy State v. South Alabama UNDER 143.5		54-65	Win	100	13 h 2 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The South Alabama Jaguars force a ton of 3 point jumpers. In fact, they force the opposition to shoot more three pointers than any other team in the country. South Alabama's zone is extended out and it should bother Troy. Troy is a good team, but the Trojans are just 10th in the Sun Belt in 3 point percentage on offense. Troy's defense is very good, and the South Alabama offense can go through extended scoring droughts. These two teams have had very low scoring games against each other in their recent history. This matchup has brought very slow tempo games and defensive intensity has been high. Under the total.
02-21-26	Hampton v. Stony Brook UNDER 136		72-79	Loss	-110	2 h 26 m	Show
3-unit play Hampton has been shorthanded of late and the offense has been really bad on the road. Leading scorer Michael Eley and shooting guard Quintin Cooper have been out for some time and I expect the Pirates to struggle offensively as it did against Hofstra on the road last time out. Stony Brook plays slowly and Hampton should match the tempo here in a game that I anticipate will see about 64 possessions or so. Both of these teams are really inefficient in the post, and neither wants to give up the three point shot. Stony Brook will shoot them but Hampton surprisingly has a top 60 three point defense nationally. Stony Brook doesnt get to the line much and doesnt send its opponent to the line on the defensive end. I expect this one to trend under the posted total.
02-21-26	Lindenwood v. Tennessee Tech OVER 152		57-72	Loss	-110	2 h 5 m	Show
3-unit play Lindenwood plays at a breakneck pace and averages the 7th most possessions in the country. Tennessee Tech has one of the worst defenses in the OVC that does not force turnovers and has struggled defending much of any shooting lately. We should see Tennessee Tech run with Lindenwood here in a game that could push 80 total possessions and both of these teams see a ton of foul shots taken in its games. We should have plenty of points scored with the clock stopped and Tech has the ability to knock down three point shots. Over
02-21-26	Valparaiso v. Illinois-Chicago UNDER 139		71-67	Win	100	12 h 5 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) The UIC Flames defense has been next level good of late. UIC is one of the hottest teams in the MVC. They have enough length to give the opposition trouble, and they are very good in transition defense. It is tough to get easy buckets on this team. Valparaiso is pretty solid on defense, but they struggle quite a bit in the halfcourt on offense. UIC isn't likely to give them the early easy looks. UIC also does a solid job defending without fouling and that makes them a tough matchup for Valpo. An MVC under here.
02-20-26	Siena v. Merrimack UNDER 134		72-79	Loss	-110	18 h 48 m	Show
(3 Unit Play Under) Merrimack has a history of shutting down the Siena offense. The Merrimack pressing zone slows the game down and gives opponents fits. Siena wants to get to the basket, but it is so hard to get to the hoop against this Gallo zone defense. Merrimack has been able to put up some points this year by getting to the line, but Siena is top 40 nationally and second best in the conference in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. This Saints defense isn't an easy matchup for the Merrimack offense either. The first meeting went to just 54 possessions. One of the slowest paced games of the entire college basketball season thus far. Another game here where they want to walk it up. Go with the low side here.
02-20-26	Akron -14.5 v. Ball State	Top	78-65	Loss	-110	16 h 17 m	Show
(4 Unit Top Play) Akron is fully locked in and a dominant road win against WMU where the Zips led by as many as 23 points brings the conference road win streak to 5 straight for Akron. Miami of Ohio gets talked about often as the story of MACtion this season, but Akron is the most athletic and most talented team in this league. Ball State is very limited offensively as the Cardinals are 352nd nationally in effective field goal percentage and are equipped with one of the worst shooting rosters in America. The Cardinals struggle getting good looks from deep and offensive rebounding is virtually non-existent here. Akron has the ability to go on big runs due to the DEFENSE stepping up and holding opponents scoreless for long stretches. I think we see that here as Ball State has the worst offense in the MAC and Akron sneakily has the best defense in this conference. Tavari Johnson, Amani Lyles and Evan Mahaffey are simply too athletic and have strong play in the post. I expect easy looks toward the rim, and for the Zips to get to the line a ton here in this one. Akron should win this game by 20 points.
02-19-26	Tenn-Martin v. Arkansas-Little Rock UNDER 135.5		65-67	Win	100	19 h 28 m	Show
3-unit play UT-Martin has the best defense in the OVC with considerable talent difference on this end of the floor. The Skyhawks lead the OVC in overall defensive efficiency, field goal percentage, turnovers forced, blocks and altered shots, and steals. This is going to be tough for Little Rock to get in an offensive rhythm and the on-ball pressure is going to force UALR to set up in the half court deeper into the clock. The Trojans do not want to shoot a ton of three point shots but I suspect these guys are going to have to do that here as paint touches and good looks inside are likely to be inefficient here. We have some proof of concept here with the first meeting playing 55-52 on just 62 total possessions and this venue is one that UTM struggles in historically. Should be another slow burn here.
02-19-26	Southern Utah v. Tarleton State UNDER 146		74-78	Loss	-110	19 h 27 m	Show
3-unit play This Tarleton Offense has not been the same since Dior Johnson and Cam McDowell went out of the fold, and the result has been much slower pace and less offensive production as the Texans have lost eight of 10. Southern Utah has also slowed the pace over the last month during the 2nd time through the WAC opponent line up, and I think we see a slower paced game here with inefficient offensive production from both. These two just played a game 62-59 and now it will be harder on both offenses as this is the third time these teams will have squared off in the regular season. This game should look alot like the 2nd matchup between these two with personnel issues for Tarleton State, who is also playing its third game in five days. I think this one stays under the posted total.
02-19-26	California Baptist +8.5 v. Utah Valley		46-65	Loss	-115	19 h 26 m	Show
3-unit play Utah Valley is ineligible for the WAC conference tournament due to issues administratively with its exit from the conference, and there will undoubtedly be some amount of apathy that sets in as a result. Whether that happens here or not doesnt affect our position, as we like Cal Baptist to have a chance to win this game outright regardless. The Lancers are a really buttoned up team at this level, and they get good looks down low. Cal Baptist is going to play slow and methodical offensively, and strong rebounding should lead to second chance opportunities. These guys get to the line a decent amount and can shoot from outside. Its a huge advantage for Cal Baptist that the Lancers have already played in this venue in Orem, and these guys have won nine of 10 games in league play including an overtime win against Utah Valley late last month. If Cal Baptist can contain Isaac Davis and Jackson Holcombe (and they can, they have the best defensive unit in the WAC) The Lancers will have a chance to win this game outright. We will grab the points here.

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