Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

Southern Miss vs Troy: Under 50.5 (-110)

We're going against the market here, and the numbers back it up. Troy is an Under team through and through. They're 4-0 to the Under this season and an unbelievable 10-0 to the Under over their last 10 games. This series trends the same way: 3 of the last 5 meetings between these teams have stayed Under, including last year's Troy win.

Troy is also one of the most public sides on the board, and the total reflects it. They've dominated this head-to-head and they play well at home, but the Trojans haven't lit up anyone offensively besides Alabama State. They don't cover spreads either. These numbers look inflated, and as the public piles in, we expect the line to move even further in our favor.

The matchup points the same direction. Troy's defense and pace suppress scores, while Southern Miss's offense stalls out on third down. Between the recent form for both teams and the history of this series, everything sits under this total. A 27-17 or 24-14 type game fits these profiles far better than a shootout.

Take Southern Miss vs Troy Under 50.5 (-110).

Let's cash some tickets!

In the 2025 StaffDNA Cure Bowl matchup between Old Dominion (9-3) and South Florida (9-3), we're dealing with a classic defensive showdown complicated by significant disruptions on the offensive side for both teams. South Florida is operating under an interim head coach following Alex Golesh's departure to Auburn on November 30, which introduces uncertainty into their game planning and execution. Adding to the chaos, both squads will be without their starting quarterbacks: Old Dominion's dual threat star Colton Joseph and South Florida's record setting Byrum Brown have both opted out, leaving the reins to inexperienced backups—sophomore Quinn Henicle for ODU and senior Gaston "Gas Pipe" Moore (making his first and only college start) for USF.
These changes point toward simplified, conservative offensive schemes that prioritize ball control over high risk explosive plays. Fortunately for under bettors, neither defense is prone to surrendering big gains anyway. Old Dominion ranks 21st nationally in opponent points per game allowed (20.5), showcasing a stingy unit that has limited passing explosiveness throughout the season. South Florida isn't far behind, allowing 24.2 points per game (54th) while holding opponents to explosive plays (20+ yards) on just 5.8% of snaps (47th nationally).
The real value here lies in their red-zone efficiency, where both defenses excel at bending without breaking—forcing field goals or outright stops. Old Dominion allows scores on 72.9% of opponent red-zone trips (top-10 nationally in some metrics), while USF checks in at 77.8%—both figures well below the FBS average, setting the stage for stalled drives and lower scoring outputs.
With so many moving parts—coaching transitions, QB inexperience, and a focus on ground games that could turn this into a slog—it's wise to anchor our handicap on the known strengths: these rock solid defenses. Expect the offenses to struggle for rhythm, leading to a game that stays well below the total.
Pick: Old Dominion vs. South Florida Under 52.5

Kent State averages just 8.5 points per game on the road, reflecting a struggling offense. Ball State, meanwhile, consistently trends toward the under, indicating low scoring games. Given these factors, both teams are likely to struggle to generate points. While Kent State's defense is a weak point, Ball State's offense lacks the firepower to exploit it effectively. The game total has risen recently, suggesting potential value in waiting for a better number. Recommendation: Take the Under 47.5.

Both teams struggle defensively, but Arkansas State's offense faces significant challenges on the road, averaging just 18.5 points per game. Their defense, however, has performed respectably away from home. Arkansas State leans heavily on passing due to a weak rushing attack, making their offense one dimensional and predictable. This plays into South Alabama's strength, as their robust pass defense should limit Arkansas State's scoring opportunities. Arkansas State has consistently been an "under" team, surpassing 60 points only once this season.

South Alabama, typically an "over" team, has failed to hit the over in their last four games at this total. Their offensive strategy emphasizes a strong running game, which should control the clock and reduce the number of possessions. With the game total dropping, a lower scoring affair is likely.

Akron has yet to score this season, but their offense faced a formidable Nebraska defense. Offensively Nebraska racked up 68 points. UAB’s defense, however, doesn’t match Nebraska’s caliber. UAB’s strength lies in its offense, which posted 24 points against a solid Navy team and erupted for 52 points against Alcorn State last week, though they allowed 42 points in that game. Akron’s offense doesn’t need to do much to exploit UAB’s defensive weaknesses and move the ball effectively. The betting spread points to a potential blowout, and market trends are leaning toward a high-scoring game. Expect points in this matchup.

Ohio St is the #1 defense in regards to points per game given up. Texas is #4 in the same category. These teams haven't played often but both of their recent matches were under and both totals were at 52.

JMU is strong offensively. WKU isn't a good defensive team but JMU has had its problems on offense. Both teams have QB issues. There's a possibility of weather as well.

We are expecting weather. SJSU relies on the pass game. But UNLV should push the pace which for them is on the ground. These teams have good defenses. Rebels defense gets sacks and interceptions which will kill SJ pass offense.

Both defenses are fine. Washington offense still needs to work things out. They're also traveling. Washington should make a statement here and it starts with defense.

This total continues to rise. I'm not a big over bettor but both teams trend that way. Each team's offense matches up well with the defenses. Both teams should be able to throw the ball with success. Florida has a bad secondary. Over is 10-1 when Florida has faced teams that average at least 250 passing yards since hiring Napier. The Over is also 8-1 in the nine SEC games that the Gators have played since the start of last season.