Cappers Sports Picks - The Experts

Take: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Under 47.5 (-105)

The total hasn't budged, even with heavy public money on the Over. That tells us the books are comfortable with where this number sits, and we're happy to side against the crowd on a Thursday night.

Tampa Bay comes into Dallas on a short week with a rookie quarterback making his first road start. That's a tough ask in a loud building with limited prep time. The Cowboys defense hasn't been good, but I don't expect much from this Bucs offense either. Their best path is to lean on the run game and work the short passing game to chew clock and keep the ball away from Dallas.

Dallas can score, and I expect them to get their points. But a slow, methodical Tampa approach caps the number of possessions, and I like the Bucs defense to keep this competitive for most of the night. That grind-it-out script is exactly what keeps a game under the total.

I lean Tampa Bay to cover, but I can't back a team that has failed to cover 13 straight. So we'll stay off the side, stick with the total, and fade the public on TNF.

Play: Buccaneers/Cowboys Under 47.5 (-105)

Let's cash some tickets!

Minnesota Wild +129

We're taking the Wild as a road underdog, and the price is too good to pass up. Minnesota has opened the season 2-0-1 and looks like a team already in rhythm, with the tight defensive structure that keeps games close no matter where they play. They're also looking to bounce back after a loss in Buffalo, which gives us extra motivation on our side.

Tampa Bay just handled the Flyers easily, and that kind of win can inflate a number. Plus-money on a capable, well-organized Wild squad is exactly the kind of spot we want to be in. Sometimes the handicap really is that simple.

Take Minnesota Wild +129.

Let's cash some tickets!

Take Tampa Bay Rays +140

This is a strange number for the best team in the American League. The Rays are up 2-0 in a closeout game, and we're getting plus money on them.

Tampa Bay locked up the #1 seed before the regular season ended, and these two teams just played each other right before this series. The Rays had nothing to play for down the stretch and still took the first two games. They've shown they're the better team in this matchup, and getting on the plane up 2-0 is the best spot they could have asked for. I don't expect them to let off the gas.

Max Fried gets the ball for the Yankees, but the Rays have hit lefties well all season, so I'm not worried about the matchup. The Yankees defense is the bigger issue. They committed a lot of errors in Game 2, and that's been a problem all year. I don't expect it to get cleaned up now. Their offense has been just as bad. They've struggled to score, and they couldn't even get men into scoring position.

This is a mismatch, and the home team is overpriced. We'll take the better team at a plus number.

Let's cash some tickets!

Vancouver Whitecaps +135 (Moneyline)

Vancouver leads the West with 50 points from 26 games. Chicago sits fifth in the East on 42. This is the first meeting between the clubs in 2026. Their last MLS matchup was in March 2025, a 3-1 Chicago win in Vancouver, but the gap between these teams has widened since then.

The quality difference is clear in the numbers. Vancouver's +33 goal difference is the best in the league. White is the most reliable finisher on the pitch, and Vancouver's road record is stronger than Chicago's recent form at home.

The price is what makes this a play. At +120 to +140, Vancouver is priced like a near coin flip, not like the better team. We're getting a plus-money number on the side that grades out ahead in nearly every category, and the moneyline is the cleanest way to attack it.

We're taking Vancouver Whitecaps +135.

Southern Miss vs Troy: Under 50.5 (-110)

We're going against the market here, and the numbers back it up. Troy is an Under team through and through. They're 4-0 to the Under this season and an unbelievable 10-0 to the Under over their last 10 games. This series trends the same way: 3 of the last 5 meetings between these teams have stayed Under, including last year's Troy win.

Troy is also one of the most public sides on the board, and the total reflects it. They've dominated this head-to-head and they play well at home, but the Trojans haven't lit up anyone offensively besides Alabama State. They don't cover spreads either. These numbers look inflated, and as the public piles in, we expect the line to move even further in our favor.

The matchup points the same direction. Troy's defense and pace suppress scores, while Southern Miss's offense stalls out on third down. Between the recent form for both teams and the history of this series, everything sits under this total. A 27-17 or 24-14 type game fits these profiles far better than a shootout.

Take Southern Miss vs Troy Under 50.5 (-110).

Let's cash some tickets!

Atlanta Braves -105 (NLDS Game 3)

The NLDS is tied 1-1 heading to Truist Park, and Game 3 is priced as a near pick'em with two of the best starters in baseball on the mound. We like the Braves for a few reasons.

Head-to-head edge: Atlanta took five of six regular-season meetings with LA, including a Chris Sale complete-game shutout on Aug. 27. Sale takes the ball at home on full rest.

Yamamoto's splits: He was better on the road than he was at home. The Braves offense has been uneven, but we expect them to stack the lineup with lefties against him.

Bullpens: LA has a slight edge here, but with Sale likely to go deep, it matters less.

Situation: Sale has the head-to-head, the home park, and the urgency of a short series. This should be a close game, and we'll take the home side at a fair price.

Pick: Braves -105. Once the line hits -120 it's a bad number, so shop around for the best price.

Let's cash some tickets!

Falcons vs. Saints Under 48 (-110)

This is the highest total we've seen in 10 head-to-head meetings. The last time a number got this high was 11/10/2024, when it was set at 47.5, and that game stayed Under. The Under has also hit in their last three meetings.

The schedule spots favor the Under too. Atlanta is on its second straight road game, so some fatigue should show. The Saints are playing their third straight home game, and I talk about this all the time: three in a row makes a team comfortable and lazy. We saw it Sunday with the Bills.

I lean Falcons to win, but I'm not comfortable laying anything in the Hurricane Katrina game, so the total is the cleaner play. New Orleans leans on its pass game, but it's banged up offensively and needs to find some balance. I'm not sure how much Alvin Kamara has left. Atlanta is coming off a bounce-back win on TNF, so they get the extra rest. Their offense runs through Bijan Robinson, and a heavy dose of ground work chews clock and shortens the game. The Falcons defense is solid and generates pressure off the edges.

The trends back this up. Six of New Orleans last seven home games and 17 of its last 23 overall have gone Under.

This is a standalone game, and the public tends to pick a side in these spots. Here that's the Over, and the heavy ticket count is what's pushing the total up. The number opened too high to begin with. I don't mind waiting for the hook at 48.5, but we'll take the value where the public moves the total against us.

Take Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Under 48 (-110)

Let's cash some tickets!

Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 (-108)

The Raiders are 3-0 against the spread, and we're getting more than a field goal with a team that wins the turnover battle. Las Vegas leads the NFL with a +5 turnover differential and is tied for the league high with 4 interceptions. The defense is also getting home, with 10 sacks (4th in the NFL).

The Chiefs are a perfect 3-0 too, but their pass rush has produced just 4 sacks, 26th in the league. That's good news for a hot Kirk Cousins, who should have time to operate, and with Brock Bowers back in the lineup, the Raiders offense has its top weapon again.

History and scheduling also point our way. The Raiders have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings with Kansas City, and this is the Chiefs first set of back-to-back road games without extra rest since November 2024. I expect Klint Kubiak to have a sharp game plan to keep this one tight.

The line has already moved a point in Las Vegas's direction, so the market agrees. Even if the Raiders can't pull the upset, a takeaway-driven defense can shrink the margin and keep us live for the cover.

Let's cash some tickets!

Take Atlanta Dream -3.5 (-115)

Atlanta won the regular-season series 2-1 and closed it with two wins in three days, 95-84 on Sept. 21 and 83-65 on Sept. 23. Yes, Breanna Stewart sat the finale, and yes, she'll play tonight. She looked excellent in the first round, but that doesn't change what this series is: size against pressure, and Atlanta has had the answer.

The Dream are 9-1 over their last 10 and have covered seven straight, including both games against New York. The Liberty, meanwhile, are 6-17 ATS on the road and 16-28 ATS overall. That's a team the market keeps overrating away from home.

Home court, two recent wins over this exact opponent, the defensive edge, and sharp-side line movement all point the same direction. New York's sweep of Minnesota was real, and Stewart can swing any game by herself. But the Liberty haven't solved this Atlanta group lately, and they've been a poor road cover all year.

We're laying the 3.5 with the Dream.

The look ahead had the Giants as 7-point favorites, and we know exactly why this number has changed. New York's offense hasn't scored an offensive touchdown since Week 1, and Jameis Winston has done nothing in his 20 drives since taking over. The Giants also just lost their best pass rusher, Brian Burns.

Arizona is 1-2, but the record hides how well they've played. They opened the year against Justin Herbert and Brock Purdy, and they covered both road games in that stretch. They scored at the Chargers and put 30 on the board at the 49ers. Jacoby Brissett has made the offense look solid. He gets the ball out quickly, avoids sacks, is hitting 70% of his passes and ranks No. 2 in the NFL in completions. Now the Cardinals get Winston instead of those three quarterbacks. JJ McCarthy isn't ready to take over, so there's no quick fix on the Giants sideline.

The market agrees. We've watched money fade the Giants all week, moving Arizona to a 2.5-point favorite. The history points the same way:

Arizona is 12-1 against the NFC East, including 4-0 against the Giants.

The Giants are 1-13 at home against the NFC West.

The Cardinals have won and covered each of their last 5 meetings with New York.

Take Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (-110).

Let's cash some tickets!

Baylor +4 (-110)

We're getting the better side of this number, and the market agrees. The line has already dropped in Baylor's favor, and I expect more movement before kickoff.

Arizona State is playing its first game since returning overseas, and the Sun Devils are coming off a bye. That sounds like an edge, but the travel and the layoff can leave a team out of rhythm. Baylor, meanwhile, is playing with momentum. The Bears opened Big 12 play with a win over Colorado last week, and their only loss this season was a one-point heartbreaker in their opener. They went for two at the end of regulation and just missed. This team is a play or two from being unbeaten.

Baylor also has the history on its side. Arizona State won this matchup last year 27-24 at Baylor, a three-point game, and we're now getting four points.

The matchup favors Baylor too. Their defense is legit, and it gets after the quarterback. Arizona State's offensive numbers are inflated by a 70-7 blowout of Morgan State. Take that game out and the Sun Devils offense looks pedestrian. Against a defense that pressures the QB, I don't see them scoring enough to cover this number.

Take Baylor +4 (-110).

Let's cash some tickets!

Take St. Louis Blues +1.5 (-105)

We cashed the Blues last night at +175, and we're coming right back to them.

St. Louis heads from Dallas to Colorado for the second leg of a back-to-back. Normally that's a spot to be cautious, but I don't mind it this early in the season, when legs are fresh. The Blues also looked strong in Dallas, shutting out a Stars team expected to contend for the Cup, 4-0.

The Avalanche are rested, and they opened with an 8-4 win in Los Angeles. Scoring eight is impressive, but giving up four is a concern. St. Louis hasn't allowed a goal this season.

So we're getting a goal and a half at almost plus money with a team that has yet to give one up. That's a number we have to jump on.

We're also sprinkling the moneyline. This price is too big for a team that hasn't allowed a goal.

Play: Blues +1.5 (-105), with a play on the ML

Let's cash some tickets!

Louisiana -6 (-115)

I hate how public this side is, but I can't find a reason Louisiana doesn't cover. The Ragin' Cajuns have won 7 of the last 8 in this series, including 8 of the last 10, and have taken 6 straight at home (5-1 ATS). They've also covered 3 of the last 4 against Arkansas State.

The market is already moving toward the Cajuns, so we're grabbing this number now, before it hits 7.

Play: UL Lafayette -6 (-115)

Let's cash some tickets!

Seattle Kraken +175 at Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton's offense has come out firing, but that's only half the story: the Oilers have surrendered 13 goals through two games, and that kind of defensive leak is a problem against a team with real scoring balance.

Seattle looked sharp in the opener, routing Calgary 6-1 with scoring coming from multiple lines rather than one hot trio. Joey Daccord was locked in, stopping 24 of 25 shots (.960 SV%), and if he brings that form into Rogers Place, the Kraken can stay in this game.

The market is telling us something too. The Oilers are taking heavy public money, as expected, yet the line is moving toward Seattle. We're siding with the sharper side of that move. There's value on the Kraken all the way down to +135, so +175 on the road team is a great number.

Take Seattle Kraken +175.

Let's cash some tickets!

White Sox vs Guardians Under 7 (-120)

These two teams know each other well, and the regular-season history leans Over. This is October baseball, though, and I like the Under for several reasons.

Starting pitching: Parker Messick takes the ball for Cleveland and has had success against this White Sox lineup. He's backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball. The bye means the Guardians high-leverage arms are fully rested and available from the first inning.

Chicago's approach: The White Sox come in rested after sweeping the Astros in Houston. They'll go with a bullpen game, and they also have a strong group of relievers to lean on.

Postseason hitting: Offense drops in the playoffs. Teams tighten up, and the weather can suppress hitting. Hitters also see a fresh arm nearly every time up, and that kills a lineup's rhythm. Hitting splits fall off sharply when a batter faces a new pitcher every plate appearance.

With Messick dealing and Chicago using a bullpen game behind high-leverage arms, runs should be scarce early in this ALDS opener.

The Pick: White Sox vs Guardians Under 7 (-120)

Let's cash some tickets!

Blues +158

The Stars have the look of a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, with talent at every level of the lineup, and Dallas has been strong at home. That's exactly why the price on St. Louis is so appealing.

We're higher on the Blues than the market is. They have real offensive firepower and reliable goaltending, and they've been a profitable dog, especially on the puck line last season. Division rivalry games also tend to be tight, which favors the team getting the points and the plus-money price.

With both clubs opening their seasons, we'll back the road dog. There's value on the Blues at the current number, and we'd play it down to +135.

Play: St. Louis Blues +158

Let's cash some tickets!

Cleveland Browns +3 (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (TNF)

Both teams come in 2-1, but the Browns have the better spot and the better momentum. Cleveland has won two straight and now plays its second consecutive home game. The last time this franchise started 2-1, it made the playoffs.

The Steelers have been less convincing. They're 2-1, but they lost their only road game, and they struggled to score against a Patriots team that doesn't look strong right now. That's a concerning sign for an offense that now has to travel.

The history favors us too. The Browns have won and covered the last four meetings with Pittsburgh in Cleveland. Add in that Cleveland rarely gets a national primetime window and is a perfect 4-0 on Thursday Night Football, and I like the motivation and the comfort level in this spot.

This is a divisional game, and those tend to be tight. Getting a field goal with the home team is what we want. The Browns can keep this close, and they have a real chance to win outright, so we'll sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well.

Take Cleveland Browns +3 (-115).

Let's cash some tickets!

Take St. Louis City -106

Both sides arrive on back-to-back wins, but St. Louis has been the stronger team overall, and they travel well. New York has dropped three of their last five at home and continues to leak goals defensively. With the form edge on their side, we're backing St. Louis on the road.

Let's cash some tickets!

Boston Bruins -108

Opening Night brings the second Original Six matchup of the evening, and there's plenty to like on the Boston side.

The storylines start with David Pastrnak wearing the captain's "C" for the first time. Charlie McAvoy is serving a six-game suspension and will miss this one, but Boston has the depth to absorb it. The Bruins were a playoff team last year with a top-10 offense, and they return that continuity. Rangers, by contrast, tore the roster down and are in rebuild mode.

Igor Shesterkin is the best goalie on the ice when he's sharp, and he'll keep New York in games, but this isn't a contender. Boston struggled against the Rangers last season, yet they were the better team overall, and New York will need time to find its rhythm early. I don't expect much from them this year.

We're backing the home side in a raucous TD Garden. Pastrnak's captaincy and James Hagens' debut add an emotional lift, and that should push Boston's deeper roster over the finish line.

Pick: Bruins -108

Let's cash some tickets!

Las Vegas Aces +100

The Aces have this Fever team figured out. They hold the edge on the sideline with the better coaching staff, and they have the best player in the world on the floor. Just as important, they have the experience to know when to close a series out. Indiana has been searching for answers, and Vegas has already found them. We're getting even money on the team that knows how to finish, and we're taking it.

Let's cash some tickets!

Chicago White Sox +106

Houston has no business being in the playoffs. This isn't a good team, and the standings are flattering it. The White Sox stumbled down the stretch, but the underlying numbers say they're the better club, so getting plus money on them is a gift.

Both sides are throwing a bullpen game, which levels the pitching edge and adds plenty of variance. That's also why we're leaning Over on a high total. In a game likely to turn into a slugfest, we'd rather have the underdog's price than lay it with a team that doesn't deserve it.

We're taking Chicago at +106.

Let's cash some tickets!

Rams vs. Broncos — Under 44 (-110)

Denver's defense woke up in the second half against Jacksonville last week, erasing a 10-point deficit by rediscovering how to tackle and create takeaways. They'll need that version to show up again on Sunday night against a high-powered Rams offense — and we think they will.

The Rams are dealing with a real hit to that offense: Puka Nacua is out again, taking away their top weapon. Meanwhile, LA's defense bounced back from a rough Week 1, holding the Giants to just 6 points. Yes, that was against a Jameis Winston-led offense, but the Rams D made him look worse than he is — a sign this unit is trending in the right direction.

Primetime games have leaned Under all season, and we expect both defenses to hold up their end here. Add in Denver's thin air potentially wearing down Rams players as the game wears on, and the path to a low-scoring finish gets clearer. This total has already been sliding and we expect it to keep dropping before kickoff — get a number now if you can.

Take: Rams vs. Broncos Under 44 (-110)

Washington Mystics +7.5 (-115) vs Atlanta Dream

Everyone's piling on Atlanta, and this line hasn't budged an inch. Fair — the Dream have won and covered their last five, and they're playing like a team that wants this series over quickly.

But Washington isn't walking in cold. They've won four straight and 7 of their last 8. Yes, they missed the cover in their last two games — but they were massive favorites in both, a completely different animal than being live dogs. Now they're getting points against a team they've already beaten twice head-to-head this season.

Atlanta should win Game 1 — home court, better roster, more talent. That part's not in question. The question is whether they cover 7.5 in a first-round opener against a team that owns them in the season series. That's a much tougher ask than just winning.

Washington's identity travels. Their offense doesn't have to catch fire on the road if they're getting stops and second-chance opportunities — that formula has beaten Atlanta twice already this year.

Give me the dog that just rode a four-game streak into a 5-seed over a 6.5-point home favorite in a series that's already produced two one-possession games between these two teams.

Take: Washington Mystics +7.5 (-115)

Let's cash some tickets!

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions — Over 47.5 (-110)

The split here is telling: the public is piling on the Under, but the sharp money is on the Over — and the total has been moving to chase that sharp side.

On paper, the Jets look like an Under team, having gone Under in both games so far. But the "why" doesn't carry over. Week 1 came against a Titans offense that couldn't move the ball to save its life, and Week 2 was played in ugly weather that capped the scoring. Neither applies here — no weather concerns, and Geno Smith should be able to take advantage of a Detroit defense that has real issues.

The Lions are the engine of this Over. They've cleared 30 points in both games, and their defense has given up 30+ in both games right back — this offense travels, and this defense leaks. We leaned Lions last week and had real concerns about the O-line holding up; they answered by putting up 31 anyway. At home, this offense shows up, full stop.

Put it together: a Jets offense freed from the excuses that capped it the first two weeks, and a Lions offense that keeps hitting 30 regardless of O-line trouble, against a defense that keeps handing out 30-point games. This has shootout written all over it.

Take New York Jets vs Detroit Lions Over 47.5 (-110)

Let's cash some tickets!

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (+100)

Line movement is already telling us something here — this spread has been moving toward Jacksonville, and if we cross the key number of 3, that's a signal worth paying attention to.

Both teams sit at 1-1 to open the year. New England has historically dominated this series, but Jacksonville has flipped that recently — they've won and covered the last two meetings as the "home" team, including the London game. That trend matters more than the long-term series history.

New England's offense is banged up. Without AJ Brown, the passing game has stalled, and injuries along the offensive line are compounding the problem. Jacksonville, meanwhile, had a lead heading into the third quarter last week against a tough opponent on the road. Denver is never an easy building — especially this early in the season — so we're not holding that loss against them. Their Week 1 win over Cleveland looks even better in hindsight now that the Browns went into Tampa and beat the Bucs.

New England still has a strong defense, but we like Jacksonville's offense to move the ball more consistently than New England's can right now. The Jags are also chasing their sixth straight home win dating back to last season, and we think they get it done here and cover the field goal.

Take Jacksonville -3 (+100).

Let's cash some tickets!

Take Melissa Amaya +195

This fight is being priced like a coronation — Invicta champ meets Combate's undefeated newcomer, kickboxing pedigree vs. someone still finding her footing. That price is ignoring what Amaya actually is: a proven live dog. She's been in wars, she's survived chaos rounds, and she's already shown she won't fold — a fighter who refuses to tap with her arm hyperextended doesn't wilt when the fight gets ugly.

And "ugly" is exactly how Amaya wins this. Machado's résumé is clean, but it's built against a shallow, similar talent pool, and mostly by decision — good wins, not devastating ones. That's a fighter who's been able to win on points without ever being forced into the trenches. Amaya can change that. Pressure her, crowd the space, chain clinch entries into takedown attempts, and steal top time — every minute spent grinding instead of striking is a minute where Machado's kickboxing edge stops mattering.

Plus money on a fighter with a proven gear that neutralizes the favorite's biggest strength, against a favorite who hasn't been truly tested — that's the value side of this line.

Let's cash some tickets!

Michigan -5.5 (-110)

I know I'm on an island with this one. Iowa is the popular dog, and Michigan hate is everywhere. But we're here to cash tickets, not make friends, and the market is telling us something.

Line movement: The public is hammering Iowa, yet the spread keeps moving toward Michigan. When a line goes against the heavy betting side, the bigger money is usually on the other one. The market likes Michigan.

Home field: The Big House is a real edge. Iowa has to bring its offense into one of the toughest environments in the sport.

Schedule: Iowa's record looks good, but it was built on an easy slate. Michigan has been tested more, and this is a step up in competition for the Hawkeyes.

Matchup: Both defenses are elite, so points will be hard to come by. That's where Michigan's offensive talent decides it. When the defenses cancel each other out, the team with the better playmakers finds the extra points to cover.

Everyone wants to fade Michigan. We're laying the points anyway.

Take Michigan -5.5 (-110). Let's cash some tickets!

Sam Houston State: The Best 1-2 Team in College Football

Everyone's overlooking the Bearkats, but the tape says otherwise. Look past the record and at the scores.

At Troy — 16.5-point road dogs, lost by 3
vs. Tulsa — 12.5-point dogs, lost by 6
vs. Nicholls State — 21-point favorites, won 59-0

Three games, three comfortable covers, and an offense that's shown it can hang with anybody. We love backing a dog that can actually score, and Sam Houston fits the bill.

Texas Tech, meanwhile, hasn't impressed. They're 0-for-the-season against the spread, and while the offense is fine, the defense and secondary have been there for the taking. Sam Houston's explosive attack should find room to operate through the air. And if Tech is up big and starts resting starters, the backdoor cover is very much in play.

A number this large doesn't match what either team has actually shown on the field.

Take: Sam Houston State +34.5 (-112)

Let's cash some tickets!

Northwestern +20.5 (-112)

The first thing that jumps off the page here is the line movement. Despite heavy public money on Indiana, this spread has been sliding toward Northwestern — and that's worth paying attention to.

Indiana looks like a legitimate top-5 team on paper. The defense hasn't allowed a point over its last two games, and the offense has been just as dominant. But there's a catch: Indiana has yet to cover a spread all season, and they've specifically struggled to put away bad teams by the numbers Vegas expects. This is their Big Ten opener, at home, and it won't be the layup their first three games were.

Northwestern isn't the same outfit that stumbled through recent seasons. They hit the transfer portal hard, brought in Chip Kelly to run the offense, and it's showing — the offense is humming and the defense has been stingy. Last week they throttled Colorado 41-7, and they've covered in all three games this year.

Both teams play at a slow pace, which should help keep the number manageable and limit possessions for Indiana to pull away. We like backing a dog that can actually score, and Northwestern fits that mold.

We're not picking the upset — Indiana wins this game in Bloomington. But with a stout defense and an offense capable of moving the ball, Northwestern should be live to keep this one inside three touchdowns.

Take Northwestern +20.5 (-112)

Let's cash some tickets!

Falcons vs. Packers - Thursday Night Football

The line has moved, and it's not hard to see why: Michael Penix Jr. is back under center for Atlanta. However he looks in his return, he's an upgrade over Cooper Rush, who was rough in his two starts. It's not just about Penix himself, either — a competent quarterback should open things up for the rest of this offense. Bijan Robinson is still the engine, but Drake London and Kyle Pitts should benefit from defenses no longer selling out to stop the run.

Neither team has been good so far. Both the Falcons and Packers have failed to cover the spread in either of their first two games. Green Bay did beat the Jets in Week 2, but it came at a price — the offensive line is banged up, and that's a real problem for Jordan Love and a run game that's already struggling.

Add in the short week, and there's a trend worth leaning on. Like we flagged with Detroit last week: teams coming off an overtime game and then playing on a Thursday turnaround have gone 6-26 against the spread since 2000 (via NFL analyst ClevTA).

We're not high on either of these teams right now, but Green Bay shouldn't be favored by this much given their recent play and the injury situation up front.

Take: Atlanta Falcons +6 (-110)

Let's cash some tickets!

Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina — Under 50.5 (-110)

We like the under here, and it starts with the weather. The East Coast storm system everyone's watching is set to roll through Conway on Thursday — highs only in the mid-70s, a 40-50% chance of showers, and north winds 10-15 mph gusting to 25. Temps drop further after kickoff. That's the kind of wind that knocks down deep balls and turns a clean passing game into a grind. The number's already come down from the books pricing in the same forecast, which tells us we're not the only ones who see it — but we still think there's value left in it.

The matchup fits the weather too. Liberty wants to live in the run game and control the clock — exactly the offense that travels well in wind and rain. Coastal Carolina's front hasn't been great against the run, so the Flames should be able to stay on schedule and keep chewing clock. On the other side, Coastal is much more of a pass-first attack, and that's the profile the wind punishes hardest. Add in that Liberty's secondary has been stingy through the air, and Coastal's one-dimensional approach runs into a bad matchup on a bad-weather night.

Liberty has had penalty issues that stall their own drives, and Coastal has had red-zone trouble settling for field goals instead of putting up sixes, both of which trim points off a game that already isn't shaping up to be efficient. Each team has hit the Under in 2 of their 3 games.

Weather, ball control, and a bad matchup for Coastal's pass-heavy attack all point the same direction.

Let's cash some tickets!

Texas Rangers -1.5 (+157)

The Rangers are in a playoff race, and this is a spot to lean into it. Texas gets Sean Manaea, who's scuffled lately, and this lineup has feasted on lefties all year. On the other side, the Mets offense has been one of the league's weaker units against left-handed pitching — so even if New York's bats wake up, the split works against them here.

Good matchup, good price. When our side's splits line up this cleanly and the number still pays plus money, that's a bet we make every time.

Let's cash some tickets!

Giants vs. Rams Under 47.5 (-110)

This is a strange scheduling spot, and it points toward the Under.

The Rams have the rest edge, but they're coming off the long trip to Australia, where they looked sloppy. The Giants are traveling from the East Coast, and their whole approach is to run the ball and shorten the game. Both offenses can be explosive, but I expect both to play conservatively here.

The Rams offense stalled in Week 1, and they've trended Under at SoFi. Puka Nacua is also questionable, which would cap their upside even more.

I'm not interested in the Giants side. They're the public dog, and I'd rather fade that crowd than chase it. The total is the cleaner play. Fewer possessions, a run-heavy game plan and a Rams offense still finding its footing all add up to a game that stays under the number.

Play: Giants vs. Rams Under 47.5 (-110)

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals: Under 41 (-115)

The market is already leaning our way, and the total has been dropping. Both teams are coming off wins, but the matchup points toward a low-scoring game.

Arizona shocked a lot of people last week, and our clients cashed backing them. The defense was the story. They held a Chargers offense that was supposed to be explosive under Mike McDaniel to just 14 points. The blueprint from here is simple: lean on the run game, bleed the clock, and limit Seattle's possessions. Fewer drives for both sides means fewer chances to go over.

Seattle's defense should be tough again, and the offense has real problems. With backup Drew Lock under center, the gameplan has to be conservative, built around short throws and manageable downs. Even that didn't work last week, when they went just 2 of 11 on third down against New England. Stalled drives and punts keep the clock running and the score down.

Add a divisional matchup, Seattle's first road game and Arizona's first home game, and we're expecting a slogfest.

The Pick: Seahawks vs Cardinals Under 41 (-115)

New York Jets +3.5 (-110)

The line has moved in New York's favor, and I love getting a home dog in this spot.

Green Bay imploded in Week 1 — rattled by penalties and turnovers that can be cleaned up, but I'm not convinced this is the game where it happens. The passing offense is still productive, but the run game hasn't come together.

The Jets, meanwhile, looked dominant against Tennessee. The defense racked up three sacks and shut down the Titans' passing attack, while Geno Smith turned in a clean game with zero turnovers.

Green Bay's run defense looked strong on paper, but I question Minnesota's run game. Breece Hall should find success on the ground here.

Green Bay has now dropped six straight, dating back to last season. I liked how this Jets team looked in Week 1 — I'm higher on them than most, and I don't think Green Bay is as strong a team as the market believes.

Play: Jets +3.5 (-110)

Pick: Alexandre Pantoja +124

We were on Joshua Van in the first fight, and it's fair to ask whether we got lucky. Probably a little. This rematch is a clash of styles. Van has the clear striking advantage, and Pantoja has the edge on the mat.

Pantoja came out aggressive last time, and he'll need to do it again. If he sets the pace early and drags this into his grappling, he's in his best spot. If the fight reaches Round 4, the advantage shifts to Van.

Even so, I can't pass on Pantoja at this price. He says his elbow is fully healthy, and I believe him. He also looked good at weigh-ins. This fight should be closer to a pick'em than the odds suggest, so I'm taking the dog.

Take Alexandre Pantoja +124

Florida State vs Alabama — Under 49 (-115)

Blowout risk is the obvious counter here — a lopsided game can easily push this Over, and that's the main threat to any Under play. Still, I expect fewer than the 48 points these two combined for in last year's meeting.

Both defenses match up well, and Alabama has finally found a consistent run game — the kind of ground-and-pound approach that eats clock and limits possessions for both sides. FSU, meanwhile, is dealing with off-field chaos after firing their AD, and that kind of distraction rarely translates to a clean offensive performance.

The trends back it up:

FSU is 2-0 to the Under this season
The series has gone Under in 2 of the last 3 meetings
Alabama is 5-0 to the Under when coming off a road win in their last five games

I don't see FSU scoring enough to challenge this number, and I expect Alabama to control tempo with the run rather than open things up.

Play: Under 49 (-115)

North Carolina vs. Clemson — Under 43.5 (-110)

I'm leaning Clemson at home, and the numbers back that up: they've won 8 of the last 9 meetings with UNC, covering 7 of those. But Clemson has a habit of finding ways to burn bettors straight-up, so instead of fighting that trend, I'm playing the total.

Last season's meeting was lopsided — Clemson won 38-10 — but this year's setup looks different. UNC has taken a step forward, while Clemson is breaking in a new starting QB. Historically that's a recipe for a program to lean on its defense and ground game rather than push the pace, especially at home. I'm not expecting a full offensive overhaul from Clemson this early.

On the other side, UNC has gone Under in each of its first two games, suggesting their offense is still finding its footing too.

Put a new QB, an improved-but-not-explosive UNC unit, and a noon kickoff together, and this profiles as a game where both sides struggle to consistently move the ball. The total has already dropped from 44.5, and the betting splits back that direction as well — I'm following the money here.

Pick: Under 43.5 (-110)

Texas Tech -7.5 (-110)

This line has moved in Houston's favor, but the Cougars still feel like the popular side here — often a sign of value on the other team. That makes Texas Tech a potential buy-low spot despite their 0-2 ATS start this season.

The Red Raiders host their first Friday night home game in decades, and the atmosphere should be electric. History also favors them: Houston has struggled against Texas Tech for years, with the Raiders winning and covering in seven straight meetings. The Cougars haven't beaten Tech since 2009 — a dominant stretch.

Between the raucous home environment and the lopsided series history, we'll back the home favorite.

Play: Texas Tech -7.5 (-110)

Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills — Under 55 (-110)

This is the highest total on the slate this week, and it's easy to see why. Both offenses were productive last week while both defenses were shaky, and the last time these two teams met, they combined for 90 points. On paper, that screams shootout.

But there are real factors pushing back against the over. Both teams are on a short week, and both are adjusting to a new playing surface — not ideal conditions for offensive rhythm or continuity.

Buffalo's offense also has to show it's more than one-dimensional. If the Bills lean too heavily on the pass like they did last week, Detroit's defense should be able to key on it and shut it down — forcing Buffalo to establish the run to keep the Lions honest.

On the other side, Detroit's offensive line issues are a real concern, especially playing outdoors, where poor protection and a compromised run game tend to be magnified.

There's also a betting trend worth noting: Unders are 1-3 in primetime games this season, a pattern that's held up for a while now.

Given the short week, new surface, O-line concerns, and Buffalo's need to prove it can run the ball, I expect both teams to settle into the low 20s rather than push into the high 20s — enough offense to make it interesting, but not enough to clear this number.

Take: Under 55 (-110)

Syracuse at Pittsburgh — Under 51.5 (-110)

This is a big number, and with Pitt likely drawing the public money on the spread, I want to attack the total instead — especially since we've already seen this total drop.

Pitt's defense is elite. The Panthers rank near the top of the FBS in both rushing defense (23.5 yards per game) and scoring defense (10.5 ppg) — numbers built to expose exactly the kind of mistakes Syracuse just made.

Syracuse's tape is a mixed bag. The Orange opened with a 66-3 demolition of New Hampshire but were brought back to earth in a 21-18 home loss to Cal. QB Steve Angeli, back from a 2025 Achilles tear, threw 3 interceptions against the Golden Bears — including a pick-six — while Syracuse was flagged 15 times. Through two games he's at 569 yards, 4 TDs, and 3 INTs. On paper, Syracuse's offense looks explosive (42 ppg, 475 yards/game), but the Cal film showed real cracks — turnovers and penalties — that Pitt's defense is built to punish.

History favors Pitt, and heavily. The Panthers have won 20 of the last 24 meetings and are 11 straight at home against Syracuse — the Orange haven't won in Pittsburgh since 2001. Last year Pitt won 30-13, and under Pat Narduzzi the series sits at 9-2 in Pitt's favor.

Weather is the wildcard — and it favors the under. Acrisure Stadium is open-air, and rain is a real factor here. We already saw what weather can do to this Pitt offense: their last home game was a 19-point output in poor conditions. Syracuse, meanwhile, managed just 18 points against Cal.

Bottom line: two defenses that have started the season well, a Syracuse offense that's shown it can be rattled, weather potentially in play, and a Pitt team that historically dominates this series and tends to ease off once the game is in hand. This has some blowout upside, but I like Pitt's defense to keep Syracuse well under its season pace.

Play: Under 51.5 (-110)

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — Over 8.5 (-108)

The Over cashed in the series opener Monday, and the conditions that drove it haven't changed. Both starters have been struggling, and Griffin Canning in particular is a bad matchup for this White Sox lineup — I like Chicago's hitters to keep the pressure on early. Cleveland's offense should hold up its end too, giving both sides paths to runs.

Take the Over 8.5 (-108)

Kansas City Chiefs -130

Denver's popularity with the public is a red flag right out of the gate — this line hasn't moved an inch despite heavy action, which tells me the Broncos are being overvalued by bettors.

On the other side, the Chiefs offense got a boost with the addition of Kenneth Walker. Assuming Mahomes is healthy, Kansas City is 3-1 straight-up against Denver at home over their last four meetings, and I'm not interested in fading this team on their own turf. Andy Reid has a strong track record in September, especially as a home favorite.

The trends favor Kansas City even further: Sean Payton is just 6-12 straight-up as a road underdog with Denver, and the Broncos are a dismal 1-5 both SU and ATS in the first two weeks of the season since Payton took over.

Home favorite is the play here.

Take: Kansas City Chiefs -130

Cowboys @ Giants — Take Giants +3 (-113)

Two teams that were nowhere near playoff contention last year, but both look improved heading into Week 1.

Dallas's offense should be fine as long as everyone stays healthy — that's the easy part. The bigger question is whether this defense can be a top unit. They struggled badly last season, and while they addressed some clear needs, they're doing it under a new defensive coordinator. That's a lot to ask for right away. Add in real questions on the offensive line, and Dallas has more to prove than the market seems to think.

The Giants bring in John Harbaugh, and say what you want about him, he kept Baltimore competitive nearly every season and has a Super Bowl on his résumé. That's the kind of discipline and structure this roster has been missing. New York had a rough record last year, but they were competitive in the majority of their games — this isn't a team that was getting blown out.

The offense has real weapons. I've liked Jaxson Dart since his Ole Miss days, and with a healthy Malik Nabers back, they should be capable of generating explosive plays. Defensively, I expect a strong pass rush to be the identity of this unit.

Historically, Dallas has owned this head-to-head matchup, but the tide is turning. The Giants won at home against Dallas last season in a game that meant nothing for either team — and Dallas was still favored by 3, a spot that closed at -3 with Dallas losing outright 34-17. New York has covered 3 of the last 4 meetings against Dallas.

I like backing a home dog here, especially on primetime. I don't mind waiting to see if this gets to +3.5, but my number says this closes around 2.5.

Take: Giants +3 (-113)

Line Movement Alert: Cardinals +10

This number is starting to drop, and the market is telling an interesting story. Public bettors are hammering the Chargers, but the sharp money is clearly backing Arizona — and the books have noticed. They're moving the spread in response to where the real money is landing, not where the ticket count is.

I don't expect the Cardinals to have a great season, but I do expect them to be competitive in this Week 1 opener. Right now this is a big number that's quickly disappearing, and 10 is a key number worth grabbing while it's still available. The Chargers are also shaping up to be a popular Survivor pool play this week, which only adds to the case that this line won't sit still. My best guess: this one turns into a sweat for anyone on the Chargers side.

The trends back it up. Courtesy of Steve Makinen's research:

Underdogs of 6.5+ points are just 11-34-1 straight-up in Week 1 since 2013 — but they've covered at a 32-13-1 (71.1%) clip against the spread.
Teams that suffered eight or more close losses (8 points or fewer) the previous season have rebounded well in Week 1 when not facing a similarly struggling opponent: 13-7 SU, 14-5-1 ATS (73.6%) since 2013.
Teams that saw their win total drop by five or more games the prior year are also strong Week 1 rebound bets in a similar spot: 21-17-1 SU, 26-13 ATS (66.7%).

Play: Arizona Cardinals +10 (-115)

Navy at FAU — Navy -4.5 (-110)

FAU was exposed last week, getting run over by Florida in a game that laid bare a run defense with real structural problems. That's the worst possible matchup to walk into against Navy, whose entire offensive identity is grinding opponents into dust on the ground.

The numbers back it up: Navy controlled the ball for nearly 40 minutes and scored all six of its touchdowns rushing, piling up over 500 yards on the ground. The triple option doesn't need explosive plays — it needs a defense that can't consistently win at the point of attack, and that's exactly what FAU just showed it isn't.

Navy is also simply the more stable program right now, and this game sets up as a low-possession, physical slog — the kind of environment where a spread offense that needs volume to score gets starved for opportunities. FAU's motivation for a signature home win in conference play is real, but motivation doesn't fix missed fits at the line of scrimmage.

Play: Navy -4.5 (-110)

Minnesota vs. Mississippi State — Betting Analysis

This is the first-ever meeting between these two programs, and it's also Minnesota's first home game against an SEC opponent since Vanderbilt visited in 1959. That context alone makes this a compelling matchup before you even get into the numbers.

The line move toward Mississippi State appears driven largely by Jeffery Taylor's highlight-reel performance in Week 1, not a full evaluation of either roster. Both teams looked sharp against overmatched opponents last week, but a 1.5-point road favorite off a single game against ULM feels aggressive.

Taylor is a legitimate weapon, but Minnesota's front seven should be well-equipped to contain him. On the other side, Lindsey is the more experienced quarterback and operates a traditional, ball-control Big Ten offense that should let the Gophers control tempo. Minnesota's defense looked excellent in Week 1, and there's no reason to expect a drop-off here. Meanwhile, I haven't been impressed by Mississippi State DC Zach Arnett's units.

The situational factors also favor Minnesota. The Gophers are hosting a Gold Out and honoring their 2025-26 athletic champions, adding extra juice to the home environment. Add in Tracy's return-game ability, and Minnesota has scoring upside beyond its base offense. Minnesota also gets a rest advantage — they played Thursday, while Mississippi State played a Saturday night game.

Between the home-field edge, special teams, extra rest, and a defense that should hold up well, Minnesota has a real path to win this game. This is a good spot for value on the home side.

Play: Minnesota +1.5 (-115), with a small side on the Minnesota ML (+100)

Missouri at Kansas — Border War returns to Lawrence

Friday night's game marks the first Border War played in Lawrence since 2005 — a 21-year gap for this rivalry on KU's home turf, and it's set for prime time on national TV.

Both teams padded their records against overmatched FCS competition in Week 1: Missouri beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14, and Kansas throttled LIU 51-6. Neither performance tells you much about how these teams will look against Power Four competition, which makes this a real first test for both.

The betting market has moved toward the home dog, with the line ticking down in Kansas's favor. That shift, combined with two factors working against Missouri, is enough to like the Jayhawks here:

Ahmad Hardy remains out for Missouri, robbing the offense of its best running back.
Kansas has the building back after 21 years. A rivalry game returning to a stadium for the first time in two decades tends to bring an atmosphere that's hard to model into a point spread.

Both teams have quick turnarounds after this one — Kansas flies to London to open Big 12 play against Arizona State, while Missouri hosts Troy before starting SEC play at Mississippi State — but that's a story for next week, not this one.

Pick: Kansas +5.5 (-110)

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams — Under 48.5 (-110)

The travel narrative is everywhere this week, but its actual impact on either team is hard to pin down — so I'm setting that aside and leaning on what I can measure.

Neither team got starter reps in the preseason, which tilts this toward a defense-first game before anything else is considered. Historical trends back that up: San Francisco has hit the Under in 9 of their last 11 Week 1 games, and under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 29-18 to the Under when lined as single-digit underdogs since 2017. Add in a banged-up 49ers roster and an offense that was already sputtering down the stretch last season, and the scoring outlook shrinks further.

On the other side, the Rams should field one of the league's stronger defenses, while their own offense is short on real-game reps. Throw in travel and unfamiliar surroundings as a marginal drag on execution, and every factor — game script, matchup, location, and each team's current strengths — points toward a lower-scoring affair.

The one thing giving me pause is that we're on the public side of this number. But the process holds up, so I'm taking the Under.

New England Patriots +3 (+100)

This is about as loaded a Week 1 matchup as you'll find: a Super Bowl LX rematch, with Seattle raising its championship banner before kickoff. That's a lot of emotion and crowd energy on Seattle's side — and it shows in the betting, with the public piling onto the Seahawks. Yet the line has been sliding toward New England anyway, which usually signals sharper money on the other side.

The Patriots have retooled specifically to avoid a repeat of that Super Bowl beatdown, where Seattle's defense completely stifled Drake Maye. New England traded for A.J. Brown and signed Romeo Doubs, giving Maye real difference-makers at receiver. Seattle, meanwhile, enters with some real subtractions: Kenneth Walker III is now in Kansas City, and the Seahawks are breaking in a new offensive coordinator, Brian Fleury. Seattle's defense should still be excellent, but it's Week 1 with a new offensive setup on the other side of the ball, and I think New England's revamped passing attack finds more success than it did in February.

The trends support the dog here too: Seattle is 8-10-1 ATS at home under Mike Macdonald, while New England is 4-0 both straight-up and against the spread as road underdogs under Mike Vrabel.

I'll take the road dog here, with a small sprinkle on the moneyline at +155

SMU vs. Florida State — Under 53.5 (-110)

I've had my eye on this total all week, waiting for movement that never came. As the only college football game on the slate, this one will pull heavy handle — and the public is piling onto the Over.

I'm going the other way.

Florida State has plenty to prove. They looked sloppy in Week 0, but the stakes are higher now, and head coach Mike Norvell is squarely on the hot seat. Whatever the personnel questions on both sides of the ball, this is a team that should be playing with urgency for its coach.

SMU has just as much on the line. With Louisville looming, a win here is close to mandatory if they want to be in playoff conversation.

When two teams need a result more than they need style points, defense tends to take over. The numbers back that up: in ACC games with tight expected spreads (-3.5 to +3.5) and totals of 55.5 or lower, the Under is 70-48-1 (59.3%) since 2015.

I like SMU to cover the spread, but that side's gotten too much public love for my liking. The total is where the value is — I'm betting the Under.

Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin — Lambeau Field

This one's on a neutral field, and while Notre Dame fans will travel well, the atmosphere should be close to a true 50/50 split.

Notre Dame is the better team here, full stop. Marcus Freeman has this program rolling, CJ Carr returns at quarterback, and even after losing both starting running backs to the draft, the defense is loaded with returning talent. This unit allowed just 17.6 points per game a year ago and features one of the best cover corners in the country in Leonard Moore.

Wisconsin, on the other hand, hasn't found its footing under Luke Fickell. I don't expect their offense to move the ball consistently — dual-threat QB Colton Joseph is really their only proven weapon. But their defense held up on the road last season, and I think that unit can hang in this game and keep it from getting out of hand.

The pace angle matters too. Freeman played for Fickell at Ohio State and coached alongside him at Cincinnati — I don't see him pouring it on if Notre Dame builds a lead. That relationship, combined with a Wisconsin defense capable of keeping possessions manageable, points toward a controlled, lower-scoring game.

The numbers back it up: Wisconsin was 10-2 to the Under last season and 7-1 against the spread as an underdog. Between a defense-driven script and a coach who won't be looking to embarrass a friend and mentor, I like this staying under the total.

Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)

Louisville +7 (-115)

This neutral-site matchup at Nissan Stadium in Nashville pits a rebuilding Ole Miss squad against a Louisville team with history on its side as an underdog.

Pete Goulding is entering his first full season as Ole Miss head coach, and while the Rebels retain Chambliss and Lacey, this is largely a rebuilt receiving corps working under a new offensive coordinator. Two new starters on the offensive line add further uncertainty up front. Ole Miss ranked middle-of-the-pack against the run a season ago, and an aggressive offense playing behind a retooled line and a first-year OC feels exposed to a defense that forces mistakes.

That's where Louisville comes in. This is Jeff Brohm's fourth season leading the Cardinals, and he's built a reputation as one of the sport's great underdog coaches. Dating back to his Purdue days, Brohm is 11-4 ATS as a 7-plus point underdog — and he's carried that magic to Louisville, beating a top-11 opponent in each of his three seasons there (Notre Dame, Clemson, and Miami). The Cardinals are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.

Louisville has a new starting quarterback, but the offense should still run through Isaac Brown, and clock control will be a priority in controlling tempo and limiting Ole Miss possessions. On the other side, look for Louisville's defense to take advantage of an Ole Miss offense that may press the issue early, creating the kind of turnovers that swing underdog covers.

The public is siding with Ole Miss, but the number hasn't moved much despite that backing — a sign sharp money may already be on Louisville. It's worth shopping for the best line here, as some books have already dipped to +6.5.

Take Louisville +7 (-115)

Nevada -105 (shop for the best number)

Nevada opened as an underdog but the line has flipped, with Nevada now favored at home — that kind of movement often reflects sharp money or new information hitting the market.

Western Kentucky is breaking in a new offensive coordinator, which typically means early-season inconsistency as the unit gets up to speed. That works against WKU here.

On paper, Nevada should be able to establish the run and control tempo against a Hilltoppers defense. Combine that with the home-field edge, and Nevada looks like better value than the current number suggests.

Play: Nevada -105 or better. Shop around — the line moves book to book, and getting -105 instead of -110 adds up over time.

UCLA vs. California — Under 53.5 (-108)

Primetime finale, and everyone wants a piece of the last game on the board. When the public loads up heavily on one side, that's our cue to look the other way.

This total has moved down despite action on both the public and sharp side — a sign the number is still finding its footing early in the season. Both teams are breaking in new head coaches for their season opener, which adds volatility neither side has had to answer for yet.

I like UCLA to win this one, but we already missed that number — so instead we're playing the trend that's been money for over a decade: the Under is 12-1-1 in this rivalry since 2010. Cal's defense doesn't inspire much confidence, but new-coach jitters, first-game rust, and a total that keeps sinking are enough to side with history here.

Play: Under 53.5 (-108)

Baylor vs. Auburn — Betting Preview

These two met in last year's season opener, with Auburn winning 38-24. But both rosters look completely different now.

Auburn hands the keys to new head coach Alex Golesh, whose reputation for high-octane offense should show up eventually — just maybe not in Week 1. I'll also take a small flier on Byrum Brown for a Heisman longshot.

Baylor, meanwhile, turns to DJ Lagway, who transferred in after two years at Florida. I was high on him coming out of high school, but his tenure with the Gators didn't impress me. The ceiling is still there — it's just a lot to ask him to run a new offense from day one. And I'm not a Dave Aranda believer; he's squarely on the hot seat entering this season.

I like Auburn to cover here, but that side will draw too much public money for my taste. Instead, I'm attacking the total.

Two brand-new offenses, neither team with live-game reps yet — expect some early rust. Add in the neutral site, which historically favors the Under, and a number that hasn't moved yet. I expect it to start drifting lower soon, so I want in now.

Pick: Baylor vs. Auburn — Under 59.5 (-115)

Miami (FL) at Stanford — Under 48.5 (-115)

Stanford already has a game under its belt this season, having survived a 37-27 shootout with Hawaii. That one stung a bit personally — I tabbed Hawaii as a free play on the spread. (DM me for a Discord invite if you want in on those.)

The bigger picture here is Week 1 scoring between Power 4 opponents, which trends heavily Under. Since 2021, per Steve Makinen, these matchups have gone 14-6 to the Under (70%). Widen the lens to bigger favorites (4+ points) since 2013, and it's 49-22 Under (69%) — a much larger sample that backs up the smaller one.

Miami hasn't played a snap yet this season, so it's fair to be skeptical of early offensive rhythm — especially against a Stanford defense that already has a game of live reps under its belt from Week 0. The total has been sliding, and I'm on the same side as the market here.

Play: Under 48.5 (-115)

Colorado vs. Georgia Tech

These two met in Boulder to open last season, with Georgia Tech escaping 27-20. Both programs enter this rematch in transition, which makes it one of the more interesting numbers on the board.

Colorado has been quiet this offseason — we haven't heard much from Deion, and the roster has been overhauled again, including a new defensive coordinator. Expectations for this team are modest. The shiny new piece is WR Danny Scudero, but he was banged up in camp, so his effectiveness out of the gate is a question mark. At quarterback, Julian Lewis is a young, inexperienced starter. Between the new pieces and the lack of live reps together, I'd expect some rust on both sides of the ball.

Georgia Tech isn't immune to turnover either. Haynes King is off to the NFL, and that's a real loss — Alberto Mendoza steps in with limited experience under center. The Yellow Jackets leaned heavily on the ground game to beat Colorado last year, and I expect them to lean on it again, especially with Michigan transfer Justice Haynes now in the backfield. Their defensive front also has new faces to work in.

On the other side, Colorado's tempo-based offense has the kind of scheme that can produce explosive plays against a defense that's still gelling.

The line has been all over the place — opened at 7.5, dipped to 6.5, and is currently sitting between 6.5 and 7 depending on the book. This is shaping up to be a popular public game, and with both teams dealing with roster continuity issues and nobody having seen live action yet, I think this stays closer than the number suggests.

Shop for the 7 — I'm on Colorado +7

Giants vs. Pirates — Over 8.5 (-115)

Both offenses erupted last night, and neither starter tonight is built to go deep — expect an early hook from both sides and heavy bullpen usage as the game wears on. Neither bullpen is fresh. That combination tends to open the door for extra runs. The matchups favor the bats here too: both lineups line up well against the opposing starters. With the total already trending up, I like getting down on the 9 while it's still available at a plus number rather than chasing it after the line moves.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+125)

The Rays should draw plenty of action here, and for good reason. They're at home against a struggling Mets club, and the pitching matchup tilts firmly in their favor. Ian Seymour has been sharp lately and gets a Mets offense that's been cold, while Robert Stock takes the mound for New York against a Rays lineup that feeds on right-handed pitching.

Between the home-field edge, the favorable pitching split, and Tampa's track record against righties, this sets up as a game they should be able to pull away in. Backing the Rays to win by multiple runs.

Take: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+125)

Arsenal -1 (-115)

I get the hesitation — getting -1 at this price feels generous on paper. Villa have won 4 of their last 7 league meetings with Arsenal since 2019, and they've taken all three of the last home fixtures against them. That history is real, and I'd expect Arsenal to respect it. A cautious away side is exactly what would make a -1 line feel risky.

But the numbers mask where this Villa team actually is right now. They're mid-rebuild, and it showed in brutal fashion last time out: Brighton put four goals past them inside 31 minutes, and Villa were down to 10 men before halftime after João Gomes was sent off. That's not a bad result — that's a team that fell apart in real time. Villa barely created anything in that game either, which is the more telling stat. Struggling to score is one thing; struggling to generate any threat at all while also imploding defensively and losing a man is another.

Arsenal, meanwhile, opened the season with a comfortable 3-0 win over newly-promoted Coventry — exactly what a title-caliber side should do against inferior opposition.

If Villa couldn't create against Brighton even with 11 men, there's no reason to expect a better showing against the defending champions. The head-to-head history is a reason for caution, not a reason to fade this line.

Leeds vs Brentford — The Draw

It's rare for me to back a draw, but this one has all the hallmarks of a stalemate.

Both sides opened the season with wins and will be looking to stay unbeaten. Both also had midweek cup fixtures, which tends to level the playing field further. History backs this up — these two have a habit of canceling each other out, with 4 of the last 6 Premier League meetings ending level, including both matchups last season.

Leeds are a tough out at Elland Road, unbeaten in their last 8 home games against Brentford, while the Bees arrive winless in their last 6 on the road. If this one produces a winner, it's Leeds — but with both clubs in strong early-season form and playing disciplined, well-organized football, I like this to be a split-the-points affair. The head-to-head record at Elland Road suggests another tight, chess-match style contest.

Play: Draw +245

Portland vs. Austin — Portland -1 (-112)

Portland is red-hot at home, riding a three-game winning streak and scoring multiple goals in each of those victories. With a deep group of attacking options, they have the firepower to keep that stretch going.

Austin, meanwhile, is running on fumes. This will be their ninth match in August alone, and the fatigue showed midweek in a 2-0 loss to Toluca while playing a man down after a red card. Their defense hasn't held up under the load either — 40 goals conceded in 21 matches is a number that should worry anyone backing them here.

Put Portland's home-field surge up against an exhausted, leaky Austin backline, and this sets up as a comfortable spot for the hosts.

Play: Portland -1 (-112)

NC State vs. Virginia — Under 53.5 (-115)

Week 0 leaves us thin on data, but that's exactly why I want to attack this total early — before the market catches up. The betting splits already look good on our side, and I expect this number to keep dropping as the week goes on.

Early season is when I lean hardest on my model and situational trends, since the public and even the books are working with the same limited sample I am. Right now my model has this total sitting five points too high — that's more than a field goal of edge at the current price.

A few things support the lean:

Week 0 conference matchups between Power 4 teams have trended low-scoring. Timing and unfamiliarity tend to suppress offense before the rest of the sport catches up.
This is the first live action of the season for both teams. No in-season tape, timing still rough, offenses typically ahead of defenses in September — except in these earliest openers, where sloppiness cuts the other way.

Combine the model's five-point edge with the historical scoring trend in this exact spot, and the under is the side I want.

Play: Under 53.5 (-115)

USC enters this one loaded, with 17 returning starters and Jayden Maiava back under center — that continuity is a real early-season edge while other teams are still finding their identity. Lincoln Riley's offenses are built to score in bunches, and USC was close to unbeatable at home last year. The number is big and the public is already on this side, but neither of those things scares me off — this sets up as a Trojans team ready to flex its muscle from the opening whistle. I expect a blowout.

Take USC -38.5 (-110)

Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City

Manchester City's moneyline is the best pure value play here, but for subscribers (and myself) who prefer plus-money, the spread offers a better price on the same read.

Both sides looked shaky in their season openers — unsurprising given two new managers are still finding their footing. City have yet to post a clean sheet under Maresca, and transition periods like this tend to run long for both clubs.

Still, the history in this fixture heavily favors City:

Palace are winless in their last nine league meetings with City (D3, L6)
Palace haven't beaten City at home in the Premier League since April 2015
City are unbeaten in their last 11 away league trips to Selhurst Park (8 wins)
The last six meetings have all gone 3+ goals (Lean)
City won the most recent meeting 3-0 in May 2026
Haaland has scored in all five Premier League appearances against Palace (ATGS -110)

Despite the early-season noise, City remain the far better side, and the head-to-head trends are lopsided enough to lean on.

Play: Manchester City -1 (+114)

Both sides opened the season with scoreless draws, and Celta Vigo will be further hampered by missing key attacking pieces this weekend. Despite closing last season strong with a 6th-place finish, Celta has struggled with this particular matchup — Osasuna have won three of their last four trips to Balaídos, including a 2-1 win there this past February.

With Celta's firepower compromised and Osasuna's recent history in this fixture working in their favor, a low-scoring, tightly contested match feels likely. Osasuna look like live underdogs here, and another stalemate wouldn't be a surprise.

Play: Osasuna +0.5 (-115)

Connecticut Sun +14 (-112)

Both teams enter off wins, but the schedule spot favors Connecticut. The Sun played last night, while the Valkyries play again Thursday in New York — giving Golden State more reason to treat this one as a lower-priority stop, with one eye on their next game.

There's also a motivation angle: this is one of the Sun's final games as a franchise before relocation/rebrand. A team playing out the string usually mails it in — but a "let's not go out on a loss" mentality can cut the other way, especially at home.

Fourteen points is too many for a game where the favorite has less on the line and a quick turnaround looming. Taking the points.

Real Madrid -1.5 (-115)

On paper, this is a clear mismatch in favor of the home side. Madrid's attack is a clear cut above what Sociedad can throw at them, and Sociedad have been shaky away from home. Historically, this fixture has been one-sided in Madrid's favor, and nothing in the current form suggests backing the underdog makes sense.

With the moneyline priced too short to be worth laying, the better value is on the spread — Madrid look capable of putting this one away by multiple goals.

Play: Real Madrid -1.5 (-115)

Portland Fire vs. Dallas Wings — Under 176.5 (-110)

The total here has been sliding, and the market move makes sense given how both teams are trending.

Portland has been an Under team lately — four of their last five games have stayed under the total, with the lone Over coming in their most recent outing. They've also trended Under on the road specifically.

Dallas tells a similar story: they're an Under team at home all season, and they've gone Under in five straight games overall.

With both sides pointing the same direction, I like the value on this number.

Betis vs Valencia

Both sides opened the campaign with clean sheets. Betis picked up the win and carry slightly better momentum, though their away form hasn't been convincing lately. Valencia looked solid defensively but couldn't find the net — their shot volume and xG were both low.

Under stands out here, though the price is a bit steep. If the juice doesn't bother you, it's worth laying.

Betis are also unbeaten against Valencia in their last three meetings. Given the draw is a live outcome, Draw No Bet offers a safer entry point.

Play: Betis 0 DNB (-120)

Chelsea to Win (-120)

Chelsea have owned this fixture historically, and this season's squad backs that trend up on paper. The Blues invested heavily in the offseason, assembling a deeper, more talented unit than what they're facing across the pitch. Both sides have a track record of slow starts to the season, so an even, cagey opener wouldn't be a surprise — but when the gap in overall quality is this clear, class should tell. Lay the -120 and side with Chelsea on the moneyline.

This total is dropping. Shop for the best number. Analysis to follow.

Take Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Under 8 (+100)

Golden State Valkyries vs. Chicago Sky — Under 164 (-110)

The market movement here stands out first: the total dropped despite money coming in on the Over — a signal the sharp side is on the Under.

The trends back it up. Golden State has been an Under team all season and brings one of the league's best defenses, having cashed the Under in four straight games. Chicago has followed suit, going Under in three straight and five of its last six.

Golden State has also covered the spread in two of its last three games, adding a bit more confidence to backing them — and the Under — here.

Play: Under 164 (-110)

Market Play: Los Angeles Chargers +100

The Chargers opened as favorites but have been bet down into underdog territory. Action has now stabilized around a pick’em, leaving the current +100 price looking like a soft number relative to the early market movement.

Short underdogs have shown solid profitability in the preseason. Taking the Chargers at plus money capitalizes on that reverse line movement and the historical edge on short dogs.

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+164)

Loving this number on the Brewers. Both starters have struggled in day games this season, but George Kirby brings an added layer of trouble — his road splits have been shaky all year. Milwaukee's lineup lines up well against his profile, and I like the Brewers to cover this run-and-a-half at plus money.

Golden State Valkyries +2.5 (-115)

This has the makings of a great watch — arguably the two best teams in the W right now, both riding winning streaks into this one. I was leaning toward the underdog regardless, but it helps that the "dog" here is also the home team, and my model actually has them winning outright. Good spot to take the points.

There are two good reasons the market is discounting the favorite here. Historically, Nashville has struggled against the Red Bulls, with just a single win in their head-to-head history. On top of that, this is Nashville's sixth match in 19 days — a brutal stretch that's bound to bring some fatigue.

Even so, this Nashville side is clearly the better team right now. They just dismantled Miami, and they're unbeaten in 12 of their last 13 MLS matches. They also travel well. Meanwhile, the Red Bulls have been shaky at the back — inconsistent and vulnerable at home.

The safest play is Nashville DNB at around -150, but for those who don't like laying that much juice, the real value is on the money line.

Take Nashville SC +123

Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+125)

We’re attacking the run line here.

Merrill Kelly grades out as the lowest-rated starter on today’s slate, and the Red Sox lineup matches up well against him. Ranger Suárez has been merely average as a starter this season, but he has the superior bullpen behind him.

That combination makes the home side the side to back at plus money to win by multiple runs.

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun — Under 169.5 (-105)

The total keeps sliding despite strong public backing on the Over — a signal worth respecting. Neither team has shown much offensive firepower this season, and early-game struggles are likely given the road environment. We're siding with the market movement here and taking the Under.

Golden State Valkyries -6 (-110)

Early money is already piling in on Golden State, and I expect steam to build throughout the day — this is a number worth grabbing now before it moves.

Dallas has been shaky lately, failing to cover in all of their last five games and dropping four of those five outright. It gets worse: Shepard and Fudd are both out for the Wings. Shepard is Dallas's best rebounder, and her absence leaves a real hole in the interior.

Golden State, meanwhile, is playing its best basketball of the season. The Valkyries have won five straight and have owned this matchup all year. They boast the league's best defense, dictate tempo, and consistently force opponents into tough, contested looks.

Dallas can still score in bunches, but without Shepard, their rebounding and interior defense are exposed against a Golden State frontcourt that's physical and well-coached. Add in Golden State's strong track record as a home favorite, and this is a spot worth backing.

Play: Golden State -6 (-110)

Elche vs. Deportivo La Coruña — Under 2 Goals (+120)

Deportivo are back in La Liga for the first time in eight years, and that history alone will make this a charged occasion at home. But emotion and quality don't always move together — this has the feel of a match where nerves and caution outweigh ambition on both sides.

Elche themselves aren't walking in with much swagger. They survived relegation by a single point last season, and that kind of near-miss tends to breed a more conservative approach early on, especially against an unfamiliar opponent.

The last meeting between these two — a 4-0 Elche win in the Segunda División back in June 2025 — tells you almost nothing here. Both squads have turned over significantly since then, and a second-tier blowout doesn't translate to a top-flight opener.

Put it together and this reads like a tight, physical, low-event game rather than a shootout. Neither side looks equipped — or inclined — to open things up. I could see this finishing 1-0 either way, which is exactly the kind of scoreline that makes Under 2 goals attractive at +120.

Pick: Elche vs. Deportivo — Under 2 Goals (+120)

This total keeps moving, so shop for the best line. My model favors Parry, but the market has Boisson — so I'll stay off a side bet. Still, this should be a tight match between two French women.

Boisson gets the edge in rest: her opponent retired while Boisson was up a set. Parry, meanwhile, had to grind out a comeback win over Mertens just to reach this match. Parry's the better performer on clay, but Boisson is a live dog here, and I still see the value sitting on her side.

I expect this one to go three sets, so I'll back the Over.

Play: Parry/Boisson Over 21.5 (games)

FC Dallas +133

FC Dallas arrive at Q2 Stadium in strong shape — a healthy goal differential, solid form on the road, and a firm grip on a playoff spot. Austin FC, by contrast, are reeling: a brutal -14 goal differential and one of the worst records in MLS this season.

The line doesn't reflect that gap. Austin is still priced as the slight dog, largely on the strength of home-field advantage and a run of good form in Leagues Cup play — which is also why this match got moved in the first place. But that cup form hasn't carried over into MLS, where Austin continues to struggle.

Dallas is the better team by a clear margin, and getting them as road underdogs at +133 is where the value sits. I expect goals in this one, but the edge points squarely to Dallas.

Play: FC Dallas ML +133

Seattle Storm +2.5 (-110)

Both teams are playing out the string with no playoff implications, but Seattle's recent form stands out. After a stretch of struggles, the Storm looked sharp in a comfortable win over Chicago at home Monday — and they've been a live team against the number this season, especially at home and against Eastern Conference opponents.

Chicago, meanwhile, is closing out a road trip and still dealing with the absence of Taylor and Diggins. The Sky have been shaky away from home all year, and nothing suggests that changes here.

The market has shifted toward Chicago since Monday's result, but that reaction undersells how well Seattle just handled this same matchup. Betting-wise, that's the kind of gap worth fading the line for — same two teams, similar script, and Seattle already showed it has this matchup figured out.

Pick: Storm +2.5 (-110)

Athletics +131 is an attractive price here.

Oakland took Friday's opener 8-3, yet Texas remains a surprisingly large favorite despite dropping four straight. That gap between price and recent form is hard to justify.

On the mound, Gore has been sharp of late but has struggled away from home — a real concern given the venue. Ginn, by contrast, has been a steady arm on an otherwise shaky pitching staff and has been especially effective at home.

Add in a Rangers offense that's gone cold, and the pitching matchup actually favors Oakland more than the odds suggest.

On paper this looks like a classic late-season mismatch — Texas still pushing for playoff position, Oakland playing out the string — but the Rangers offensive slide and the pitching edge make this a live spot.

Play: Athletics +131

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics — Under 171.5 (-110)

The total in this matchup has been drifting steadily lower, and the market's telling a clear story: both sides are trending Under right now. Washington just snapped a seven-game winning streak with back-to-back losses, and I'd expect them to reset defensively at home rather than get into another track meet. On the other side, LA has cashed the Under in three straight, reinforcing that this number still has room to fall.

I like this Under all the way down to 168.5, which gives real cushion at the current line of 171.5.

Play: Under 171.5 (-110)

Fever -7.5 (-110)

The market's telling a clear story here. Indiana's been dominant at home this season, while Dallas has struggled to find any rhythm on the road. Add in Dallas playing without Fudd, and the gap widens further. Line movement has been steadily toward Indiana, a sign sharp money agrees with the home-side lean.

Backing the favorite at home in a mismatch spot with this much market conviction behind it.

Take: Indiana Fever -7.5 (-110)

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox — Over 8.5 (+100)

This total has been moving, and it's easy to see why. Both lineups match up favorably against the opposing starter, and neither pitcher profiles as a shutdown arm tonight. Expect the bats to be active on the South Side — I like this one to clear the number comfortably.

Play: Over 8.5 (+100)

Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Over 9 (-120)

We faded Bratt his last time out and got burned — Arizona's offense put up runs behind him, and I expect a repeat here. Sugano hasn't pitched well recently, and Arizona's lineup matches up well against him, so I like their bats to keep producing. On the other side, Colorado should have success against Bratt.

Both starters look exploitable, and the total is already moving up — shop around for the best number before it climbs further.

Play: Over 9 (-120)

Toronto Tempo +14.5 (-108)

Two spread-shy teams meeting up — Dream are the better side and get the home edge, but neither team covers consistently. My number was +14, and sharp money is already leaning Tempo here. With the line unlikely to get better than +14.5, this is a buy-the-number spot: take it now.

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins — Under 8.5 (-115)

Expect this total to move, so grab the number now before it drops. Dean Kremer has had success against several of his former Orioles teammates, and Minnesota's offense has looked noticeably flatter with Byron Buxton out of the lineup. Both factors point toward a lower-scoring game — take the Under while the price is still favorable.

I like Salkilld's size, speed, and striking — and he's riding real momentum. But I wouldn't be shocked if Gamrot turns this into a dogfight on the strength of his wrestling. Salkilld's biggest danger is dropping the early rounds to takedowns and control time. Gamrot has five-round grappling experience, and that pace should tell over time — we've already seen Salkilld gas, and Gamrot simply doesn't stop. The smaller cage should also favor Gamrot, cutting off Salkilld's room to work.

Pick: Mateusz Gamrot +120

Everyone's paying the Dodgers tax tonight, and I don't get it.

The Dodgers have dropped their last 7 games overall and lost 5 straight meetings with Arizona. They've also been just average on the road against NL West opponents this year.

Meanwhile, Arizona has been excellent at home against division rivals, and they're 9-1 when Pfaadt starts.

Public money will keep pouring in on LA, so you can likely wait closer to first pitch and grab an even better number on the home dog.

Take: Diamondbacks +159

Tampa Bay Rays +100

Plus money on the Rays is close to an automatic bet — this team has been profitable across most spots all season. Yes, they've been shaky on the road, but they arrive in Seattle riding a sweep of the Rockies in Colorado, so momentum is on their side.

The Mariners are a step up in class from Colorado, but let's not overstate it — they're still under .500 and have underachieved most of the year. This projects as a clean pitching matchup, and neither bullpen has looked sharp recently, which keeps the door open for a low-scoring, close game where the moneyline value matters.

The Rays are a machine. Take the plus money.

Take: Tampa Bay Rays +100

Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals — Under 8.5 (+100)

This total looks soft, and subscribers are getting a plus-money number that won't be around long.

Colorado's offense is a different animal on the road, and neither club fares well against right-handed pitching — a problem for both lineups tonight. St. Louis in particular has leaned Under most of the season, and nothing about this matchup changes that pattern.

On the mound, Kyle Leahy has been reliable his last few outings, giving the Cardinals a real chance to keep this low. Ryan Feltner, on the other hand, has struggled mightily and gives Colorado's lineup little margin for error if the bats do wake up.

Neither bullpen inspires confidence, but with two shaky offenses against a tough right-hander and an out-of-form starter, this profiles as a low-scoring, ugly game.

Play: Under 8.5 (+100)

Fonseca vs. Ruud

Fonseca's win over Ruud at Roland Garros — a gritty four-set battle — sent him into his first career Grand Slam quarterfinal. Both players are playing well right now, and I like Ruud to get his revenge at the current price (+117).

But the real value here is in the total. Given how competitive this matchup has been, I don't expect that to change.

Play: Over 22.5 (Ruud/Fonseca)

Both teams are mired in lengthy losing streaks, which makes this a classic "least bad team" spot. The public is piling onto the home favorite, but the fact that the spread hasn't budged despite that lopsided action is the real signal — sharp money isn't following the crowd here.

My rule in these bad-team-vs-bad-team matchups: lean to the plus money. The ATS trends back it up too — Toronto covered their last outing, while Portland has now failed to cover in three straight. Following the smart money and the recent form, I'm on the underdog.

Play: Toronto Tempo +2.5 (-105)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs — Under 7.5 (-113)

Dylan Cease is a known commodity on the mound — his stuff plays, and he gives us a real shot to keep this one low-scoring. On the other side, David Peterson's season line hasn't been pretty, but his last outing against the Yankees showed real signs of life. Beyond the recent form, Peterson's profile sets up as an awkward matchup for Toronto's lineup specifically, which adds another layer of confidence to the under.

Between Cease's consistency and Peterson trending in the right direction against a lineup he matches up well with, this game has the makings of a pitchers' duel — take the Under 7.5

The Pick: Pirates vs. Brewers Under 7The betting market has shifted sharply, driving this game total down to 7 runs. This downward movement signals strong respect for the starting pitching and a highly favorable matchup for a low-scoring duel.

Pitching Analysis & Matchup Factors

The Kyle Harrison Factor: The line move is heavily influenced by respect for Milwaukee Brewers lefty Kyle Harrison (8-2, 3.01 ERA). Harrison returns from the IL to face a Pittsburgh Pirates offense that has historically struggled badly against left-handed pitching. Harrison has completely owned Pittsburgh in his young career, giving up zero runs and just six hits across 12 dominant innings (19 strikeouts).

Skenes Due for Positive Regression: On the other side, Pirates ace Paul Skenes (9-9, 3.90 ERA) looks vulnerable on the surface after allowing 10 runs over his last two outings. However, his advanced underlying metrics suggest he is far better than his recent box scores indicate. This is a prime bounce-back spot for Skenes to find his elite form against a Brewers team that relies on small ball and has hit the fewest home runs in the majors.

The Verdict

Expect both starting pitchers to dictate the tempo early. With the Pirates' bats stifled by a tough lefty and Skenes primed for a strong rebound, runs will be at an absolute premium.

Lock in the Under 7