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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-17-23 | Chiefs v. Jaguars OVER 51 | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 19 m | Show | |
Let's not overthink this. The Jaguars' defense is very exposable, as a young and inexperienced Colts' offense showed us on Sunday. Indy made quite a few mistakes offensively, but an above average offense (maybe even a slightly above average offense) can and will humble the Jags' defense often this season. The Chiefs have an extra 3 days to prepare for this game and we've seen what Patrick Mahomes and his offense can do when they have retribution on their mind (remember KC at Tampa Bay early last season after they tripped up against the Colts in Week 3?). Travis Kelce will return, which is HUGE for them, and I expect Patrick Mahomes to give an all-world performance. This isn't a team built to go 0-2, but I'd rather bet on points than a side here. Trevor Lawrence looks like a potential MVP this season, slinging the rock with placement that reminisces Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning type QBs. I love how good Calvin Ridley and their offense looked against a stingy and better-than-advertised Colts' defense. This is a game where both teams should get close to 30 points and when you think that's the case, you look for an over. PS - KC's defense did not look good in Week 1, either.Â
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09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots UNDER 45 | 25-20 | Push | 0 | 142 h 26 m | Show | |
There are a lot of reasons to like this angle. The Patriots' had a mostly quiet offseason but don't get it twisted - this defense, which was a top 5 unit last season - is likely even better this year. They used their first draft pick to get stud CB Christian Gonzalez, who jumped off the page with staggering numbers at the combine. New England was probably directed towards adding depth to their secondary after losing a legend like Devin McCourty in the offseason, but they have a lot of depth at safety and will not feel his departure. Quite frankly, the move was overdue. Anchored by Matthew Judon, their front-7 is an elite group that barely saw any changeover. This is a defense that held opponents to a league low 0.4 rushing TDs per game and 4.1 yards per rush (4th) last year. They were top 10 in several key categories against the pass, too. Philadelphia hit the lottery again with one of the best pick-ups in the draft, snagging Georgia DT Jalen Carter 9th overall, who already looks like a game wrecker. They lost some depth at linebacker but with another elite defensive line and plenty of formidable talent in their secondary, I can see Mac Jones on the ground early and often as the Pats struggle to move the ball all game. At home the Patriots' defense has the advantage of a raucous crowd when their best unit is on the field and I think the Eagles' losing Shane Steichen will cause major issues in their productivity this season. Steichen elevated Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts under his tutelage and play-calling; both QBs and both offenses struggled without him. This checks out as a gritty reality check for the returning NFC Champion-Eagles and it's very possible that they straight-up lose their first game of the season at Foxboro. Defense should win frequently here, and at 46 I can only look to an under. Again, since totals are so tough in Week 1, we'll just bet it to win 1 unit.Â
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09-09-23 | Appalachian State v. North Carolina OVER 60 | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 127 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an interesting total considering 55 is a major key number in college football and you're getting just 6 points over that in a game where the Tar Heels could absolutely explode. Drake Maye and baby blue North Carolina welcome App State, their in-state rival, on Saturday and we think there could be a lot of fireworks in this one. Maye had a great start to the season, throwing for a 75% completion percentage and leading his team to a decisive 31-17 over South Carolina, an SEC defense. While the Gamecocks aren't the same stingy defense as season's past, that's still an impressive feat on the road to initiate their 2023 campaign. Now with one game behind them, I expect Drake Maye to unleash in front of his home crowd against a porous defense. And while they held South Carolina to -2 yards rushing on Saturday, I think App State can find the endzone and put up some numbers, too. Rattler threw for nearly 400 yards against the Tar Heels in a loss, and their offense looked able in Week 1. These two teams combined for 124 points last year when they met, and I expect this number to rise. Either way we should get CLV, but I expect a 45-27 type of game and another W for our bankrolls. |
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09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State OVER 55.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 509 h 39 m | Show |
I think this number rises and rises the closer we get to this game. Let's start with LSU. The Tigers are a top-10 lock with arguably one of the most well-positioned rosters to make a run at the playoff. Remember, last year Brian Kelly and his team out-lasted Alabama on their way to an SEC championship game, edging the Tide in OT. The megalith that is the Georgia Bulldogs took out LSU in the title game, beating them soundly (50-30), but Kelly and the Tigers haven't forgotten heading into this season. They own a top 5 offensive line run-push rating according to Brett Ciancia and they are 4+ running backs deep at the position, all poised for another big year after averaging 184 rush yards per game. The biggest reason to love their offense in 2023? Third year QB Jayden Daniels, who turned down an opportunity for the NFL Draft for one more year in Baton Rouge. Daniels is ready to make a run at the Heisman Trophy after exploding onto the scene last season. Loaded at WR and with a big TE like Mason Taylor, who made huge catches for Daniels last year, this is an LSU offense ready to take off and do even more in 2023. Combined with Daniels' running ability (he led all QBs in the country last season with 885 rushing yards), I expect the LSU offense to get off to a fast start in Kelly's second year.  The Florida State Seminoles are suddenly as equipped for a playoff run as any elite in the country. I'll put it in Brett Ciancia's words. When talking about last season, "Pick your metric - Florida State was at or near the top. Only four teams (Georgia, Bama, Michigan, and Florida State) placed in the top 15 of both my opponent-adjusted, per-play metrics in both offense and defense. FSU returns 16 starters - including the #1 most returning production in America - and filled their vacancies with the nation's top rated transfer class." QB Jordan Travis, like Daniels, will be another leading Heisman contender heading into this campaign. He led his team to top 10 ratings in total offense, yards per play, and yards per pass attempt in 2022. The Seminoles are stacked at talent positions all around Travis, with a three-headed-monster at RB and they've reloaded their pass-catchers, getting the #1 tight end in Jaheim Bell and #4 receiver Keon Coleman via the transfer portal. Mike Norvell is a recruiting and talent-building master and it starts with their dynamic offense.
What do I like even more about this bet? LSU ranked 63rd and the Seminoles ranked 75th in rush defense in 2022. While both defensive lines have plenty of talent, limiting two explosive running attacks in the first game of the season is unlikely for either front. That's an A+ matchup for both offenses, and an A+ great opportunity for two of the most dangerous QBs in the country. When the run game is running, play-action and RPO attacks become all the more potent. Daniels and Travis don't need any help producing at a high level, but this could be a perfect storm for both Heisman candidates. Love this over in a showcase game on Sunday night. Get the popcorn ready! |
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09-02-23 | Boise State v. Washington UNDER 59 | 19-56 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
The anchor of Boise State's team will be a defense that's stingier than people think, while Washington should eventually be able to run away with this but their defense is no slouch either. Michael Penix Jr. is the real deal and the Huskies' offense should present one of the more challenging attacks to stop, but what this line is discounting is a defense that's bringing back a lot of the same guys, including top-rated players who incurred injuries last season, to forge a more unified defense than what we're used to seeing from the Huskies. Nearly 60 points in one game is starting to feel like a LOAD with the new CFB rules and this feels more like a 31-17 or 34-17 type of game. Â
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09-02-23 | Qinwen Zheng v. Lucia Bronzetti OVER 20 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Zheng is getting improperly hyped and lined here. Her form has been good, sure, but like Luidmila Samsonva, who can't win in grand-slam tournaments, Zheng tends to flail in this round or earlier in majors. Lucia Bronzetti is cuter than a button but more importantly she's a fighter and has shown relentless energy and vigor, beating opponents that many thought she couldn't. Taking down Eva Lys, who had as much momentum as anyone, was particularly impressive. Bronzetti doesn't go down easily and even if she loses eventually, she'll stretch this match.
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08-28-23 | Bernarda Pera v. Veronica Kudermetova OVER 20.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
Bernarda Pera/Kudermetova 1st set over 9.5 games (+120), to win 1.2U This is another line that's just too inflated and based on perceptions I can't agree with. Veronika is one of my favorite players because she's so damn cute but her form has been very inconsistent all summer, making it to the finals on some smaller circuits but getting bested by better competition and in more high-pressure spots time and time again. Bernarda Pera is a veteran of the sport and this will mark the 6th time she's facing Kudermetova, who leads the series 3-2. Two familiar foes will battle hard at first as both look to regain form, and I don't see the favorite as being polished enough at this stage to dominate immediately.  |
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08-28-23 | Karolina Muchova v. Storm Hunter OVER 18.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
I realize Storm Hunter hasn't been stellar as of late, but the Australian is as feisty as it gets. Although she's seen more success in doubles, she's had some really impressive wins-- like beating up on Camila Osario in Chicago, winning 77% on successful 1st serves, or her 3-set win against Donna Vekic in the German Open, the venue's #1 ranked player. Karolina Muchova is getting the queen's line here, expected to win with ease and priced at a ridiculous -1200. Muchova caught her stride in Cincinnati, making it to the Finals against the surging Coco Gauff. Leading up to that tournament she had a really disappointing summer, barely winning any matches following a nice run at the French Open in early June. Point is, she's surely vulnerable to a 6-4, 6-3 win at the least, but I think the blue-collar Storm Hunter will put up even more of a fight than that. Give me an over for 1.5 units.Â
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08-26-23 | Navy v. Notre Dame OVER 50.5 | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -108 | 722 h 56 m | Show |
We have Brad Powers on our side in this one (see his Twitter convo with Fezzick, who I think he's a complete jackass half the time) so this is officially a 3-unit play. As they noted in their convo, the Irish and Navy has been a high-scoring series for over a decade. The Midshipmen don't always have the best offense, and certainly last year they experienced new lows, averaging just over 23 ppg and only winning 4 times. New coach Brian Newberry comes in as Navy's 40th head coach, replacing Ken Niumatalolo after 15 years leading the Midshipmen. A new regime typically brings new excitement and after such a pedestrian year offensively, navy is bound to pull out some new tricks against the Irish in this historic rivalry. The Irish are at home for their opener and they should have an even more explosive offense this season. Last year the Irish scored over 31 ppg and we saw an offense with a ton of talent, but QBs Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne weren't consistent enough to take advantage. This season, Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman takes over after 5 sterling seasons with the Demon Deacons. His QB rating has gone up every year he's played and I like the veteran QB to utilize the wealth of talent at WR, TE, and RB behind an Irish offensive line that's almost always among the elite in the nation. The last four Navy-Notre Dame contests have averaged 61.25 ppg and I think the 18th ranked Irish could drop a 50-burger themselves in an attempt to make a statement to the rest of the country in front of their home crowd. Love. This. Over.  Â
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08-26-23 | Chang Sung Jung v. Max Holloway OVER 2.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
Max Holloway/Chan Sung Jung Finishing Round: 4th (+700)Max Holloway/Chan Sung Jung Finishing Round: 5th (+850)Max Holloway to Win by TKO/KO in Round 4 (+800)
Max Holloway to Win by TKO/KO in Round 5 (+1000) Max Holloway to Win by Submission in Round 4 (+6500) |
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08-26-23 | Fernie Garcia v. Rinya Nakamura UNDER 1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -170 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rinya Nakamura To Win And Under 0.5 (+275 at DK), to win 1.87U Rinya Nakamura To Win And Under 1.5 (-165 at DK), to win 1UPoor Fernie Garcia really seems like he's being led to the slaughter. The kid just lost two fights in a row and now he'll go up against a potential phenom. Rinya Nakamura is on his home turf and he's been unstoppable since he started his fighting career. Five of Nakamura's 7 wins have finished in the first round, and his last three wins were ALL in the first 5 minutes. Talented in every regard and with that different, insanely explosive form similar to Bo Nickal, Nakamura's elite wrestling should put him in a quick opportunity for a finish, and he sure as hell knows how to do that. |
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08-23-23 | Sara Sorribes Tormo v. Veronica Kudermetova OVER 21 | 2-0 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Veronika Kudermetova is the more powerful and consistent player, but lately it seems like her confidence has waned. Besides being arguably the prettiest girl in the tournament (how does this have to do with our bets, Chris? It doesn't), she's either lost or gone over 21.5 games in five out of her last matches. Sara Sorribes Tormo is not as skilled or as dynamic as the Russian, but we're confident she can push this match to a lengthy battle, and maybe even win one set.
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08-19-23 | Neil Magny v. Ian Garry UNDER 1.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 38 h 39 m | Show | |
The animosity is growing between the wily veteran, Neil Magny, and one of the UFC's hottest upcoming prospects, Connor McGregor look-and-talk-alike Ian Garry. Garry's power and size and aggressiveness should be too much for Magny, who we know can take a punch and should not be underestimated, but I think Garry gets him nice and early in this contest. This kid's on a rocket ship and Magny is outmatched athletically and physically in every conceivable way.
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08-15-23 | Liberty v. Aces OVER 175.5 | Top | 82-63 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
Unfortunately this total has already ticked up 3 points, but I think it could tick up even more and this number doesn't scare me away. The Liberty's defense has really stepped up lately, allowing only 69.6 ppg to their opponents in the last five games. They held the Aces to a season-low 61 points, and if you think that doesn't matter to Vegas, you're kidding yourself. Since that humbling loss, the Aces dropped 104, 113, and 86 points in their next three games. It was obvious that their last win, a 21-point domination over the Atlanta Dream on Sunday, was a sleepy afterthought as they look forward to a rematch with the Liberty. The Dream committed 17 turnovers in that game, but the Aces only shot 41% from the field and 30% from beyond the arc; a clear decline and anomaly from their season-long averages (49.6% from the field and 38.9% from beyond the arc, both league highs). The Liberty have been right there with the Aces in offensive efficiency, 2nd overall over the last 3 weeks. Although the Liberty like to play more methodical basketball, I like the Aces, who continue to stay home in an ideal spot all week, to control the tempo as they look for vengeance. I see this as a 96-89 type win for Vegas. I lean Liberty on the side, but I'll gladly go over the total for 1.5 units.  Â
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08-10-23 | Iga Swiatek v. Karolina Muchova OVER 19.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Swiatek/Muchova 1st set over 9.5 (+130), to win 1.3UIga wins 2-1 (+320), to win 0.8UAnother long shot but I like Muchova's form recently and think it's very legit. Muchova took Swiatek to the third round in the Finals of the French Open, and ever since that loss she hasn't had a very good summer. I don't think it's a coincidence that she's started to find her form again now, leading up to a big revenge match against the world's #1. No doubt Muchova hasn't forgotten and she's battled well in two tough games in Montreal thus far. Swiatek finally looked mortal in her last match against Pliskova, exploding in the 2nd set after a 13-game tiebreaker in the 1st. Iga might be more tired than she planned for and Muchova should make this fun.
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08-09-23 | Alycia Parks v. Belinda Bencic OVER 20 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is our upset special of the day! Alycia Parks, a 6'1" American from Atlanta who has a howitzer for a serve, made it through the Montreal qualifiers in impressive fashion and easily shoved aside veteran Lauren Davis yesterday. in an emphatic 6-2 third set finish. Bigger and cleaner with her first serve all game, when Parks gets into a rhythm she may be hard for anyone to stop. And it's not like Belinda Bencic has looked her best lately. The Swiss was ousted from the Citi Open by Coco Gauff, a player with the same kind of power and a similar style as Parks, in two swift sets. Bencic only won 3 games in that quarterfinal. Bencic usually makes her money by out-muscling and out-thinking her competition, and while the latter is certainly in play, she won't be able to bully Parks. The 22 year old has 15 aces and has won 74% of points coming off a first serve. Love a longer battle; going for the +450 win, too.Â
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08-06-23 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 10.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -114 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
The Reds have allowed 54 runs in their last 5 games (let that sink in) and 70 runs in their last 10. Of course those two wild scores against the Cubs are a big reason why that average is so high lately, but it doesn't eliminate the fact that Cincinnati's rotation is devolving. Even without those two 36 run games allowed to Chicago, they're permitting 4 runs per game to their opponent. Once again the Jekyll and Hyde Reds are on the brink of dropping out of postseason contention and they're a prime fade candidate. They'll send 23 year old Lyon Richardson on the mound today, a rookie pro-pitcher recovering from an elbow injury and a guy who's never thrown for more than 4 innings in the minor leagues. His command has been steady but this is a big task and the Reds already acknowledged that he probably won't be out there long. Cincinnati will then turn to its bullpen to try and stop a hot-Washington offense. The Nationals are rolling out Jake Irvin, who allows at least 1 hit and 0.5 runs per inning and has never shown steady command. This is ripe for an over.Â
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08-03-23 | BC v. Winnipeg OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-50 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
BC Lions/Winnipeg Blue Bombers over 44.5 (-110), to win 2ULast time these two elite teams faced, the Blue Bombers were limited to only 6 points. If you've followed the CFL at all, you know that the Blue Bombers are easily one of the premiere teams in the league and that's largely because of their explosive offense. The biggest reason for their offensive success: QB Zach Collaros. Collaros has completed 136 of his 195 passes this season (70%) for 13 TDs and only 4 INTs. Back in Week 3 against the feisty BC defense, Collaros had arguably his worst game of his season, throwing 15/26 for only 191 yards and 1 INT. Yikes. The motivation will be there tonight for the Blue Bombers, and fortunately they haven't shown much on the defensive end to suggest that they can slow down BC, either. Winnipeg has allowed 21 ppg, but that number should really be higher. One anomaly against the Stampeders (allowing 11 points) and blowing out the inferior Alouettes (allowing 3 points) grossly affects that average, but in the other 5 games the Bombers permitted an egregious 27 ppg.  The BC Lions sit atop the West division at 6-1 and while their defense has been very stingy, their offense has been consistently exceptional, too. The Lions have only missed the 20-point margin in one game all season, averaging 26 ppg through 7 contests. And against high-octane offenses like the Toronto Argonauts, who dropped 45 points on the Lions at home to give BC their only loss, the BC defense looked vulnerable.  This sets up for a major revenge game considering both teams are neck-n-neck in the CFL's West division and Winnipeg no-doubt remembers about their stumble in late June. Parlaying the over with a Winnipeg win might not be a bad idea, but BC has proven how balanced and undeterred they can be in these big moments. I'll stick with the game going over 44.5.
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08-03-23 | Jessica Pegula v. Peyton Stearns UNDER 20 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
We need to adjust the way we handicap some of these games and the reality is, Jessica Pegula has never been in a better position than where she is now. She is the #1 ranked player at the Citi Open and has been steady in top 3-5 rankings for a while now, poised to make a run and gain momentum before what she hopes is a championship campaign in the U.S. Open. Gotta play on Pegula taking care of business here in quick fashion; and it's a better alternative than a -155 bet on her winning 2-0. Don't hate that wager, though. |
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08-02-23 | Wings v. Storm OVER 166 | 76-65 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Parlay: Wings ML and over 166.5 (+164), to win 0.82UStorm TT over 80.5 (-110), to win 1ULately the Wings haven't played a lot of defense, ranking 11 among 12 teams the last five games, and the Storm have scored over 80 points in their last three contests, seemingly making a run for pride or perhaps to even remain in the playoff mix as we get to the final weeks of the WNBA regular season. I also think the Wings might not care much about this contest, especially after a deflating loss to the Aces on the road. A travel spot up up to Seattle is never easy and the Storm are more confident than usual right now. I'll hedge our bets with two different but similar angles - I'm not sure if Dallas can cover the -6, which is a shady line considering how good they were in the past - so I would want to avoid the ATS line and capitalize in a parlay.
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08-02-23 | Elina Svitolina v. Daria Kasatkina OVER 21.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
Talk about a war - this should be just that. The ultra-tough Elina Svitolina made waves at Wimbledon but I'm not sure if she'll have the same gusto at the Citi Open. If she does, our 2-1 bet on Kasatkina might lose, but the surging Russian is still in solid form and as the 11th ranked player in the world looking to make an impact in the states, I believe she'll edge out Svitolina in a hard-fought battle. Svitolina's power and confidence is reminiscent of Azarenka, the veteran who knocked off Kasatkina in London, and I think Svitolina can either win a set or make this game real long. I want to bet on Svitolina to win it, but we have to use our brains over our hearts. Hopefully it doesn't forsake us!  Â
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08-02-23 | Belinda Bencic v. Lauren Davis OVER 20.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
There's a chance Bencic smoothly snags a 2-0 win here but the 5'2 and feisty Lauren Dsvis proved how tenacious she can be in recent tournaments, taking Jessica Pegula to the brink in London and recently dominating Sloan Stephens in a third set win in this Citi Open. She never goes down without a fight and Bencic looked vulnerable in her first match in Washington. This should go on for a bit.
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08-01-23 | Mercury v. Fever UNDER 160.5 | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Parlay: Fever ML + under 159.5 (+162 at DK), to win 1.62UIf this spot doesn't motivate the Fever, nothing will. Indiana is the worst home team in the association and tonight they'll play host to one the worst away teams in the Phoenix Mercury. Not only do the Fever need to get off the schneid after losing 4 in a row and 12 of their last 13 games (wow, worse than I thought), but this is a double revenge game for them, too. The Mercury can score points here and there but the reality is, these are two of the poorest shooting teams in the W and they play slow and clumsy. Unless we get a crazy amount of turnovers and easy buckets, 159.5 is about 7 points too high for me and while I hate betting on Indiana to win anything, they're at home ALL week and the opponent doesn't get much better. I'll take a shot.
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07-30-23 | Wings v. Aces OVER 173.5 | 91-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Aces totals going over are always a solid look but even more so when it's a revenge game and they're at home off a lot of rest. LFG.Â
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07-30-23 | Mystics v. Dream UNDER 165.5 | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
This is inflated because Atlanta games usually have inflated totals but the Dream have found some better defense and the Mystics are still without Delle Donne and plagued with other depth injuries. I don't think they'll reach 80 and the total is unusually low, indicating that this might be a sleepy spot for Atlanta, too.Â
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07-29-23 | Justin Gaethje v. Dustin Poirier OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 36 h 13 m | Show |
Dustin Poirier/Justin Gaethje over 2.5 rounds (-140), to win 1.5UDustin Poirier/Justin Gaethje over 3.5 rounds (+105), to win 1.05ULet's just enjoy this showcase and hope it goes on for a long time. Both of these guys are fighting for the "coveted" (more like kinda corny) BMF title and that means we're likely to get a long, war-like fight where neither guy is willing to give up or get KO's. Both of these studs are more polished strikers from when they faced off in 2018 (a fight that went into the 4th round, I might add) and I think that garners early respect as both look to pick their spots. The UFC has been billing this as a classic in the making and I wouldn't put it past Dana White and other officials to give the fighters a proverbial wink like, "hey, make sure this is an entertaining and long battle." Value is on the over.
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07-29-23 | Alberto Pereira v. Jan Blachowicz OVER 1.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 36 h 47 m | Show | |
Jan Blachowicz to win By KO/TKO/DQ in round 3 (+1400), to win 3.5UAlex Pereira to win and over 1.5 rounds (+215), to win 1.08UAll we're hearing about is how explosive and scary Alex Pereira is, but let's not forget-- the lanky Brazilian is going UP in weight glass and this is someone in Jan Blachowicz who has leveled up his game tremendously over the last few years. Jan packs a "Polish power" that's every bit as lethal as what Pereira can bring, despite what pundits who know nothing about boxing might say, and Jan is a more cerebral and strategic fighter. Middleweight phenom Israel Adesanya couldn't even figure out or limit Jan's dynamic striking when he tried to go up in weight class. Still, one thing that's on "Poatan's" side is that he's 36 (Jan is 40) and he's motivated to make an impact with a lot of expectations and excitement coming from his previous performances. I think Pereira might be getting in over his head but I'll put 0.25U on Jan to stop Pereira later in the fight (an early KO doesn't make sense, Pereira has to respect his power), and 0.5 units on the slightly more likely Pereira win, with a little over angle to pair it with.
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07-29-23 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima v. Derrick Lewis UNDER 1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 35 h 17 m | Show | |
Derrick Lewis might do his thing and KO De Lima and since I'm only putting 0.5U on this, I wouldn't hate it. Lewis has faced a much better group of fighters recently, although he is on a 3-fight losing streak and one has to question how much he has left in the tank after a long and overachieving career. Lewis' ability to wrestle and defend takedowns has never been his strength and I love that De Lima is training with American Top Team to prepare for this fight. They're always keen on strategy and De Lima could absolutely get behind Derrick with a savvy move and find a submission on his back. We'll take a shot. Either way, these two titans shouldn't last long, if for no other reason than Derrick Lewis' gas tank could empty very quickly, ha.Â
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07-28-23 | Lynx v. Liberty UNDER 169 | 88-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Lynx/Liberty 1H under 86.5 (-105), to win 1UIt's rare that any WNBA team plays in a back to back but that's exactly the case here. New York just finished a whirlwind, high-scoring game against an Atlanta squad that couldn't stop the Liberty from doing anything offensively but the Lynx will be in desperation mode without Collier tonight. Napheesa Collier is easily the most important cog in the Lynx-machine and she's constantly saving them with timely rebounds and easy buckets in the paint. Although NY isn't a defensive juggernaut by any means, I think Minnesota really struggles to score against an intimidating opponent and the Liberty temper their pace and go about this contest in a more methodical fashion than usual. They'll need to, considering they should lack some real energy after last night.Â
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07-28-23 | Daria Saville v. Arantxa Rus OVER 21.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rus is on a tear after her Wimbledon loss and the 32 year old has a ton of experience on this type of surface. Saville is an able competitor and has picked up some really impressive wins lately, but I think Rus steers the ship with poise and wins in straight sets, albeit straight sets with many games. I like a tiebreaker and then a 6-4 or 6-3 finish.Â
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07-27-23 | Dream v. Liberty OVER 173.5 | Top | 84-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Dream/Liberty over 173.5 (-110), to win 1.5UThis number is getting higher at most books but you can still snag 173.5 at DK and FD. The Dream's pace and the Liberty's fire after nearly losing to a subpar Seattle team just a few days ago should give them extra juice at home. Two out of their three previous matchups have gone way over this total and the only reason why one was lower scoring (165) was due to an uncharacteristically poor shooting day by New York. That doesn't happen often. I'll count on another high scoring affair for a 1.5 unit win.
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07-27-23 | Fever v. Sparks OVER 160 | Top | 68-81 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
Fever +3 (-110 at DK), to win 1.5UFever win 1H (+110 at DK), to win 1.1UFever/Sparks over 160 (-110 at Caesars), to win 1UThis total has dropped 3 points and that's a little too much for me. Both teams were fairly efficient in their last game but their pace was atypically low. With some cleaner passing (both teams combined for 28 turnovers on Tuesday) and more confidence after clashing just two days ago, I expect better perimeter shooting and both squads looking to start strong in a game that should be close throughout. I can't not take the Fever again after such a close loss, especially considering that they were up by 2 points with only 11 seconds left and showed that they can outplay the Sparks when they need to (they outscored LA 40-32 in the second half). I like them to start strong and likely win.
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07-27-23 | L Siegemund v. Lin Zhu OVER 21.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -113 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
This is just a very evenly matched pairing and when that occurs, 3 sets or two long, dragged out sets occur more frequently than they don't.  |
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07-25-23 | Fever v. Sparks UNDER 165.5 | 78-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
Fever/Sparks under 165.5 (-113), to win 1UI’ll continue to fade the Sparks and would rather trust a feisty road dog that’s learning new tricks. Neither team is efficient enough on offebse for the total to be this high.Â
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07-25-23 | Sun v. Wings UNDER 168 | 88-83 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 0 m | Show | |
 Sun/Wings under 167.5 (-111), to win 1UI think this will be a very scrappy, slower paced game with two teams who pride themselves on stingy defense and efficient offensivelyÂ
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07-25-23 | Mercury v. Dream OVER 165 | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
 Mercury/Dream over 165.5 (-113 @ FD), to win 1U The Phoenix offense has even more effective as a whole and I like how they matchup for scoring opportunities. The Dream are typically electric at home. Easy over angle.   |
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07-22-23 | Sparks v. Wings OVER 164.5 | 84-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
This number is dropping and I regret not putting this total in last night because it was one of my first hunches. The Sparks are just not trustworthy offensively and although Dallas' momentum and recent efficiency should take them to another W, they could also be greatly uninterested for segments of this game. They know they don't have to explode offensively to beat LA so I expect them to get a lead, settle in, and keep this game nice and slow-paced. This number is a good 5 points too high.
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07-22-23 | Sun v. Dream OVER 168.5 | Top | 86-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Atlanta better rediscover their rhythm fast and now they're at home against the same team that they struggled against two nights ago. Because I think we finally see Atlanta assert themselves in this game, thus the pick-em line and total very similar to Thursday's matchup, it tells me that the odds are in our favor going with more expected points.Â
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07-21-23 | Liberty v. Mystics OVER 162.5 | Top | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Mystics +9.5 (-110), to win 0.5UMystics 1H +5.5 (-110), to win 1ULiberty/Mystics over 162.5 (-110), to win 1UWe probably won't win ALL of these bets but the value is absolutely on Washington and the over tonight. The Mystics are a veteran team that just got stunned by the Fever, at home, in their first game back after the break. While the Fever are due to show more improvement and they've looked better than many thought they would this season, that's hardly what the Mystics expected. Washington shot okay from the field in that contest, completing 44.6% of their FG attempts and hitting 32% of their 25 three pointers. They didn't do anything egregious, but they just couldn't match the energy of the Fever. I think the roles might be reversed tonight. The Liberty come into today's game off a loss, too, getting upset at home by the feisty Dallas Wings two days ago. Unfortunately it doesn't get any easier on Friday. The Mystics have beaten the Liberty already, in New York, at the beginning of the season, and they only lost their last battle by 1 point in OT. Washington is not intimidated by the Eastern Conference leaders and at 3.5 games back, I imagine their motivation will remain high tonight. Both teams have struggled defensively, ranking 6th (NY) and 11th (WAS) over their last 5 games. Their offensive efficiencies are both top 5 during the same span and the Liberty run at one of the quickest tempos in the association. If New York is going to win this game, they'll need to overwhelm Washington by gaining an early lead. The total is a bit of a hedge in that sense, but I'll go with the Mystics to keep it close at home early and a little less exposure on the full game. Washington is 5-1 ATS in their last six games. After Wednesday's flop, I expect another resilient response tonight.Â
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07-20-23 | Daria Kasatkina v. Tatiana Prozorova OVER 17.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
One of these starts in about an hour, but we all know they can get delayed, too. Going with overs on two women's players who just haven't been as crisp since Wimbledon (Sherif and Kasatkina). I imagine motivation wanes after such a big let-down. Â |
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07-20-23 | Dream v. Sun UNDER 167.5 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
I capped this total at 165, but I was being conservative and as unbiased as I could considering I really like another under-angle. If either one of these teams doesn't improve from their abysmal restarts after the All-Star break, we have a really good chance at hitting this. The Dream have low-key been one of the most stifling defenses in the WNBA the last few weeks, while the Sun have remained so all season. Both dropped their pace considerably two nights ago, part of that might've been a symptom of holding such a big lead in Atlanta's case, but the Sun never moved at a frenetic pace. The Sun are also one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the association, and they don't make as many mistakes as other team's typically do. The Dream thrive off fast-break opportunities and being sent to the charity stripe but I trust a veteran Sun squad to answer and in a big way defensively after letting a bottom-feeder like the Mercury grab a W against them. Under, and lean Sun.Â
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07-20-23 | Sofya Lansere v. Mayar Sherif OVER 17.5 | 0-2 | Win | 102 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
07-18-23 | Lynx v. Dream OVER 170.5 | 73-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
I hinted at this yesterday but now we're pulling the trigger. The Lynx are the worst defense in the WNBA over their last 7 games and if they want to turn the ship around, they'll need to make some corrections. This isn't the spot to do it. ATL is averaging 91.8 ppg over their last 6 contests, all wins, and they remain the fastest offense in the association. Their defensive rating has vastly improved, but like most games against Atlanta I think the Lynx and their porous defense will be forced to chase the Dream for all 40 minutes and that should add up to a lot of points in the end. Look for this game to start slower off the break, a live under might even be an option early, but I like regression to the mean eventually and that should mean an easy over.
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07-16-23 | Carlos Alcaraz v. Novak Djokovic OVER 40.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 39 h 32 m | Show | |
I think this one has a real chance at being a classic. Of course I said that for the French Open, but Alcaraz surely won't cramp up in TWO STRAIGHT grand slam finals, will he? Lately that's the only thing that could slow down our Wimbledon bets. In any case, both Alcaraz and Djokovic were dominant against some of the best men's tennis players in the world in their semifinals. Alcaraz just has ability beyond what we've seen in nearly everything he does. His returns are freaky athletic, his placement doesn't seem possible, and his energy is through the roof. Then there's the 23-time grand slam champion, Novak Djokovic. It's not inflated to say he might be playing the best tennis of his professional career. The man has been nearly flawless, taking on top competitors with the biggest possible target on his back and just making them look silly. He only loses a set when he makes a mistake, but I haven't seen one player seem anywhere near as crisp or intelligent on the court. These two feel destined for a long, drawn out, epic battle, and since we didn't get it at the French Open, we'll cling onto a masterpiece coming for us on Sunday. |
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07-15-23 | Bassil Hafez v. Jack Della Maddalena OVER 1.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
Jack Della Maddalena to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+450), to win 2.25U Let me be clear: I don't think Bassil Hafez makes it beyond the 1st round. Jack Della Maddalena is an explosion ready to happen and his striking is as precise and powerful as it gets in his weight class. But by the off-chance that Bassil Hafez survives in the first round, cuz you'd think these fighters are trained well enough to condition specifically for their opponent, then we'd be in a beautiful spot to hit this 2nd round KO/TKO wager. Plus, for what it's worth, Hafez has never been knocked out, and he has extra motivation coming into this, saying he's fighting for his parents, who lost their lives to cancer. We'll take a shot on a 2nd round stoppage in Jack's favor. |
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07-15-23 | Marketa Vondrousova v. Ons Jabeur OVER 21.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
There's no way to see this other than it being an absolute battle. Marketa has already beaten the Tunisian twice this year and lord knows Ons can trip in some big spots; the fact that she has never won a grand slam is now officially looming over here and that tends to bring extra nerves on the court. This version of Ons might be different, though. She acknowledged the growth in her mental game and it was clear that she was relatively un-phased when she went down a set to Sabalanka early in the semifinals. She responded by simply outplaying the Belarus' beauty, making fewer mistakes in the clutch and relying on a sound serve throughout. She'll need that against Marketa. Our 5.5U bet remains alive on the Czech to win it all and right now she almost looks untouchable. Her returns have been amazing and she's been virtually error-free throughout the tournament. It feels crazy that she isn't ranked higher, especially seeing how formidable she is against top 10 opponents, but that doesn't seem to bother Vondrousova. She has a calm, almost chilling demeanor about her on the court. I like both women to test each other's nerves, break each other's serve, and they're both capable of extending every set to 10-13 games. Give me the over and we'll hedge our futures on Marketa with a 2-1 Ons win.Â
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07-14-23 | Jannik Sinner v. Novak Djokovic OVER 36.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 51 m | Show | |
Djokovic is on a different level right now but last time these two saw each other on grass, it went 5 sets. Sinner has only allowed his opponents to win 2 sets in 5 Wimbledon matches and I think his hypersonic serve and steadier nature enables him to at least win a set. This should bring it over.Â
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07-14-23 | Carlos Alcaraz v. Danill Medvedev UNDER 40.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 39 h 47 m | Show |
Alcaraz has looked more and more explosive and confident as the tournament has gone on and I just don't think Medvedev is on the 20 year old's level. Back when Alcaraz was a naive 18 years old, Daniil beat him on this very same grass and I don't think Carlos has forgotten. I expect dominance.
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07-12-23 | Carlos Alcaraz v. Holger Rune OVER 37.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 35 m | Show | |
I can't WAIT for this game. I watched both Rune and Alcaraz, two 20 year old phenoms, rally after some early lows to easily overcome some of the best men's players in the world over the last 5 years. And they made it look easy. The tenacity of Rune is worth a bet and lord knows it won't be a 3-0 or 3-1 situation; Alcaraz is too good for that and intent on winning Wimbledon after cramping up against Djokovic in the French Open. If Alcaraz wins, I think the most likely scenario is that Holger Rune just gets too emotional and too out of control. If that happens, and let's be real, he had 27 unforced errors against Dimitrov - I don't think he wins more than one set in that scenario. This should be a really great matchup, so good that I expect it to go well over 40 games.Â
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07-11-23 | Mercury v. Aces OVER 169 | 72-98 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
I've seen enough from the new regime of the Mercury to believe that they're going to be a lot more efficient offensively. After their first stinker without Nygaard against Dallas, they've been averaging 80 ppg over the last 5. The Aces are one of the better defenses in the WNBA obviously but totals still go in favor of the over when the Aces play just because of how potent they can be from the floor. The Aces have only scored under 90 points in FIVE of their 19 contests this season; that's wild. I think the Mercury will get over 70, so I love this over. |
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07-11-23 | Jessica Pegula v. Marketa Vondrousova OVER 22 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
I don't think the talent disparity is wide at all here, and this is much closer to a 50/50 type of scenario. While I think the value is on Vondrousova, we'll hedge our future bet on the surging Czech and go with Pegula, who's objectively been one of the most winning women's pro tennis players in the world the last 3 years. I'm confident that this will be a long match and I'm even more confident that Pegula can't hold this opponent for two straight sets. Vondrousova will win one; we'll see what happens from there.Â
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07-09-23 | Iga Swiatek v. Belinda Bencic OVER 19.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
07-09-23 | Marketa Vondrousova v. Marie Bouzkova OVER 21.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
Bouzkova has one hell of a spirit. The Czech has a fiery way about her and never seems to back down, even against a consummate pro like Caroline Garcia. Marketa Voundrousova has been scary good, ruthlessly occupying the edges of the green and just placing the ball wherever she wants it. This is going to be a sensational battle and I love it to either last two long sets or go into a third. Neither Marketa nor Marie have shown any signs that they'll get easily beaten by anyone. I like Bouzkova's style to tire out her opponent over time. Â
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06-30-23 | Mystics v. Dream OVER 164 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Now we're seeing the total go up in this matchup (it was 162 on Wednesday), but I still don't think it's gone up enough. Atlanta did their typical schtick in a losing effort two nights ago, piling up free throws (35 to Washington's 21) and attacking with ferocity, affecting the game's pace while allowing the Mystics to get any shot they wanted. That's ATL basketball, baby! At home, I think their offense will be much more efficient (37.8% from the field isn't going to cut it), and the Mystics find themselves in a more precarious road-trip where maybe their defense takes a night off. This is still an over-situation. |
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06-29-23 | Liberty v. Aces OVER 172.5 | 81-98 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a big risk but I believe in it. These two teams are #1 and #2 in offensive rating, net rating, effective field goal percentage, and true shooting percentage. They're easily the two best teams in the association with the countless amount of talent they both have, and because of that this game will have a layer of animosity. Sometimes that can bring a lot of defense and physicality but in this case I think it'll be more of a showcase game. We see that a lot in high profile games, an "I can do it better than you" type of atmosphere, plus it's not like this is the postseason or anything. They're not even in the same conference. Two top 5 fast paced teams and two teams with a ton of pride-- this feels like a 94-91 type of game. |
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06-28-23 | Dream v. Mystics OVER 162.5 | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Something I've noticed is as elite as the Washington defense can be, they only tend to hold back subpar offense. Now that certainly wasn't true when they put on a defensive clinic against the Liberty, but the Dream have been nothing but consistent offensively and I think Sunday was more about the Liberty's shortcomings. Atlanta continues to lead the WNBA in pace and they're masters at overwhelming defenses in fast-break points and getting to the FT line. Since this is these two team's first matchup all season and since the Dream are coming off a full 5 days of rest, I'll take Atlanta's style to offset the hometown Mystics and that leads to a total around 175.Â
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06-26-23 | Shuai Zhang v. H Dart OVER 20.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Harriet Dart is in great form and the grass clearly agrees with her style; I don't think many had her going as far in last week's tournament. Renewed but maybe a bit excitable - she's still young in the spotlight - she'll face a very desperate Shuai Zhang, who's searching for a win and a return to her previous accolades on grass. I don't think Zhang can put this to a second set, but I think there's a good chance that one set could go to 11-12 games. That gives us a great shot at over 20.5, in what should be more of a fight than the odds suggest.Â
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06-23-23 | Angels v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a great recipe for an over. It'll be a sunny day in Denver and two very shaky pitchers (Sandoval: 16 runs and 36 hits in his last 5 starts, Freeland: 17 runs and 32 hits in his last 5 starts) will take the mound. Oh my. LAA is overdue for a big showing, too, especially after two lousy shut-out losses to their big brother Dodgers.   Â
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06-23-23 | Liberty v. Dream OVER 165.5 | Top | 110-80 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
The Liberty are one of the most efficient offenses in the WNBA. The only reason why their previous game only reached 165 points is because New York had an off night. Sub 40% from the field and sub 30% from beyond the arc won't cut it against an Atlanta Dream offense that can run their opponents off the floor. Two top 5 shooting and top 5 pace team will square off in their third matchup Friday and like the first iteration of this battle, we expect to see plenty more points. Atlanta's defense can't stop anyone even on a good night. New York is off a full 4 days of rest and looking for revenge, so we expect their offense to look at its best, while ATL has a strange one game home spot before another road trip; that could mean even less defensive effort. Absolutely love this over. Bang it. |
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06-21-23 | A's v. Guardians UNDER 8 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
06-21-23 | Cardinals v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
06-21-23 | Aces v. Mercury OVER 164.5 | 99-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Five of Vegas' ten wins have been by way more than 18 points and that probably happens again on Wednesday. It's a crazy line, but is it crazy enough? The Mercury are devolving by the second, led by the aging Taurasi and the maligned Britney Griner who, although she's playing well, has to be bothered by the mental toll of the last 2 years of her life. Meanwhile, the Aces are starting to show why they're the clear favorites to win it all and it's been scary. They've won their last three games by 29, 33, and 13-point margins, and their defensive prowess is starting to match the offense. That's not a good thing for the rest of the WNBA. This situation may present differently, though. While I still think they're likely to cover ATS, their defense could be a little more susceptible on the road. In fact, only one of their six road games have gone under Wednesday's total. Like any dominant team, LV has let-down spots here and there and that usually means they don't exert the same level of effort on defense. The Mercury, despite their last-place net rating and mostly awful marks, are a sneaky good shooting team, ranking 3rd in true shooting and effective field goal percentage. Inspired to face the champions at home in their first matchup of the season, I think Phoenix is unusually efficient on offense, while the Aces keep the pace and point total climbing. This one goes over 164.5 and Vegas probably pulls away late, as they tend to do.Â
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06-20-23 | Dream v. Wings UNDER 170.5 | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
This total is getting a bit out of hand. I realize the Dream are scoring at will and I realize the Wings haven't been able to stop anyone, but that's kinda sorta the exact reason why I like the under. Reaching 170 points (a score of 85-85 if it could end in a tie) is tough to do in the WNBA in 10 minute quarters, especially when a team knows how flawed they've been on the defensive end. Six out of the Wings' 11 games have gone well under 170 points and the last time these two faced, they only got to 164. The Wings are on a long homestand with a chance to practice their sets and we expect them to play with more effort on the defense, which we all know is half the battle. This is vital before they start their west-coast road trip. The Dream are on a roll but this is the last leg of a long 4-game road trip of their own and there's a good chance they trip considering the circumstances. Regression hits, we like the under.
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06-20-23 | Mariners v. Yankees UNDER 7 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Mariners/Yankees First 5 Innings under 3.5 (+100), to win 0.5UThis line is coming down on the Mariners, which suggests that sharps think Kirby (3.24 ERA, 1.07 WHIP over 80 innings) will have another successful stint against the Bronx Bombers. Back on May 31st, Kirky threw for 8 innings at home against NYY, allowing 3 hits and 0 runs. With Cole's steady hand and consistent command this season, I think this one gets off to a slow start.
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06-18-23 | Dream v. Fever OVER 162.5 | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
  Dream/Fever over 163 (-110), to win 1.5UWe've seen some high WNBA totals lately and I still think oddsmakers are underestimating some of these offenses. The Fever have scored over 82 points in their last three games and the Dream have only fallen under that mark once in their last five games. This projects to be a fast paced game and I think it goes over 170.  |
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06-18-23 | Sky v. Mystics UNDER 156.5 | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Parlay: Mystics ML + Sky/Mystics under 156 (+175), to win 0.87U This projects to be a slow scoring game. When the Mystics face a team that's offensively challenged and slower paced, totals tend to stay under 40 points per quarter. I think we get one quarter that's really inefficient from the Sky at some point and that pushes the total down. Washington at home is the better team, so I'll capitalize with a little parlay to boot for more coin.  |
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06-18-23 | Marvin Vettori v. Jared Cannonier UNDER 4.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
06-18-23 | Joaquim Silva v. Arman Tsarukyan UNDER 1.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
06-14-23 | Rockies v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
06-14-23 | Nationals v. Astros UNDER 8 | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
06-13-23 | Nationals v. Astros OVER 8 | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Nats/Astros Run in 1st Inning? Yes (-105), to win 1 unitNats/Astros over 8 (-110), to win 1 unitA fade of Corbin and a play on the Astros' bats at home after they got blanked by the Guardians just two days ago. With time to reflect, Houston's hitters come to play in a big way. The Nats have been extremely porous on the mound.
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06-13-23 | Mystics v. Fever UNDER 157.5 | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
The Mystics are primarily an interior shooting team, and that's where the Fever can be really feisty defensively. The bigs of Indiana are aggressive and physical under the rim. The Mystics win their games by defense, easily leading the WNBA by allowing only 73.3 ppg through 8 games. In fact, only ONE of the Mystics eight contests has exceeded 158 points, and that was against an angry Sun-team in Connecticut. The Fever are a growing team and since Washington is on the last leg of a long road trip, the home team is worth a wager as the better offensive unit. A close, low scoring game favors the dog and also acts as a little hedge-- I'm not sure if a tired Mystics squad can keep up with Indiana if they start to go off from the field (Indiana is 4th best in the WNBA at 43.3%), and after a bad loss two days ago, we think they'll have some extra fire tonight. Give me the dog and the under. Â
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 211 | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
Firstly, I like unders for two reasons. 1) Denver is really starting to slow down their offensive drives, especially when they play with a lead. I see two narratives for game four-- either Denver sticks with that style, because it worked (high pick n rolls, methodical passing, centered around Murray), or the Heat respond and we see that trusty, hardcore style of defense that they can bring. Either way, and I think it's a combination of both, that should feed more low-scoring games. I do think the Heat probably win this one as we continue to see a back-n-forth battle, and I like them to come out with more energy. I don't, however, feel great about their ability early. Denver has gained confidence and we all know Miami hasn't been as exceptional during the first three quarters. We'll take them to assert themselves in the final two quarters in a desperate home spot where they must win if they have a chance in these Finals.Â
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06-09-23 | Carlos Alcaraz v. Novak Djokovic OVER 38.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
I think this might be an instant classic. The 20 year old Alcarez is at the top of his game in every way. Physically his youth and energy is a bit too much for most of the men to overcome, but lord knows the 22-time grand-slam winner Novak Djokovic will be up for the challenge. I've seen "the Joker" respond in countless situations that seemed impossible to overcome, yet he did. When he needs to assert himself, Novak can prepare a serve and return that are comparable to the greatest players of all time: Federer, Nadal, Agassi, etc. - but I still don't think it'll be enough on Friday. Part of the reason why I love Carlos so much in this battle and to win the French Open is his lack of experience in these situations. Alcarez has a hunger and tenacity that's tough to duplicate when you've already won 22 grand slams, and sometimes that naivete can be really helpful in tense moments. This feels like an "I've arrived" type of tournament win for the surging Alcarez, not that Djokovic isn't dying to win, but Alcarez has only dropped 33 games in four matches. Do you realize how crazy that is? In other words, per match (and against really good tennis players, by the way: Tsitsipas, Shapovalov, Musetti), he's only lost an average of 8.25 games, lol. Djokovic has looked crisp and can still respond with the best of them, but this is a different kind of dominance that Alcarez is showing us and I'm choosing to trust it. We'll bet on Alcarez winning the whole tournament at a reduced price and a long but assertive win for the young buck against one of the best.  |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat OVER 214.5 | 109-94 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 12 m | Show | |
The first quarter has been slow starting in this series, with both games ending at only 49 points in the first 12 minutes. I think that's because of a few factors: nerves, offenses settling in and finding their rhythm, and defenses are winning early. Spoelstra and the Heat are known for their tenacity and ability to throw off offenses, especially early in games, but I think this one will be different. Denver knows that their slow start was one reason why the game felt so out of their control, even when they went up later, and I think they're more efficient out of the gate. Denver's offense has thrived on the road, reaching a rating over 120 in the NBA playoffs. That's easily the best ranking out of all playoff teams and it should be an even bigger emphasis Wednesday night after their loss and after getting limited to only 108 points. I like overs and if we're seeing two offenses compete for who can score the most like I think we will, I have to bet on the Nuggets to out-play Miami and take a 2-1 series lead. Either way, clearly this war is a long way from over.
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06-07-23 | Holger Rune v. Casper Ruud OVER 38.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
This has "long battle" written all over it, as the line indicates. Ruud is the better player but Rune has had an easy tournament in comparison, avoiding the first match due to a sprained wrist to an earlier competitor (Monfils). Ruud has been plagued with injuries and it's hard to imagine the Danish Rune won't take him to his limits. Â |
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06-07-23 | B Haddad Maia v. Ons Jabeur OVER 20.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Jabeur has been dominant but I'm going for this angle again. Maybe we keep seeing the same Ons, but usually she trips over herself a few times towards the end of these tournaments and Beatriz Haddad Maia is a seasoned, #14 ranked veteran who can absolutely steal an early set. Maia has almost twice the playing time as Jabeur so far, so she's not as well-rested, but we'll go with a different angle. Maia tires late, but an unsuspecting Jabeur can get caught and I think Maia gives her more problems that expected.
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06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 214.5 | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 23 m | Show | |
Something that game one exhibited and that we feel dumb overlooking is how nerve-racking the NBA Finals can be for many of these young men. The home team is well-oiled and a great offense but it's the first championship game for most of their young roster and the Heat, fresh off a taxing series against Boston, weren't in any place to be explosive offensively. I also love the matchups defensively. Denver's height and endurance at home are two huge advantages, as they can pester and out-muscle the Heat's core. The Heat are still feisty and disciplined defensively, and I expect them to show their best effort after more additional rest and a full week away from their series with Boston. Game twos get heated-- I like more defense.Â
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06-02-23 | Sparks v. Mercury OVER 162.5 | 99-93 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
Phoenix is fresh off a huge 90-point game as the Brittany Griner circus continues. The Sparks might be the WNBA's worst team but luckily, just like their opponent Friday, they don't commit much on the defensive end. When these two flawed teams clash, it's usually a dueling showcase of two offenses working on their rhythm. Just a one unit play; I have the total ending at 171.Â
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06-02-23 | Anna Blinkova v. Elina Svitolina OVER 21 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
These two are very similarly built (literally) athletes, with big swings, height, and powerful serves to overcome their foes. Blinkova is a live dog but I'm not confident enough in her against Svitolina, who's playing really solid tennis right now. I'll vy for a long match.Â
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 219 | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm not sure who's going to cover this line. Both teams have been underrated all season and in these NBA playoffs, and I think the Heat could definitely cover. They won straight up as underdogs in all three of their game ones in three previous series of these very same NBA playoffs. Now with momentum, I could see them being really feisty in the second half. I lean to Denver in the first half, but I'd rather bet on their totals. Denver at home is as lethal as it gets and now the Heat are going up against a much softer defense. Jimmy and Bam and Caleb Martin and the many dogs of their roster have put up exceptional offense throughout the NBA playoffs, a top 5 rated unit. Game ones are typically looser and both teams are trying to feel out what's coming next. We'll go with two overs.
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06-01-23 | Sun v. Lynx OVER 161.5 | 89-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
The Lynx are at home and looking to defend their honor off a horrendous 0-5 start. Far from a pedestrian offense, the Lynx are actually averaging more ppg so far that the heavily favored road team, the Sun, and yet this total is a humble 161.5. That's too low for me, considering the Sun are showing that they're an exceptional overall team and although their defense is way better than Minnesota, this is a sleepy spot against a team they expect to beat, not to mention their 2nd straight road stop in 2 days. I think we see a lot of points here.Â
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05-30-23 | Fever v. Sun UNDER 159 | 78-81 | Push | 0 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
The Sun just got humbled by the Liberty on Saturday, allowing 81 points and an end to their undefeated start to the season. Now the poor little Fever are commissioned to face Connecticut, and we expect the away team to flex their defensive talent and restrict an already limited offense. Give me the under.
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05-29-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 10 | 5-7 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 211 | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 31 h 35 m | Show | |
Welp, here we go again. If the Heat defense played at the same level as they have at home in the playoffs, they would easily be rated the best defense in the NBA. Now they're going back home, after Boston found their rhythm and shot over 40% from beyond the arc and 50% from the floor. Riding the momentum of their home crowd, shots just wouldn't stop falling in. Without Herro and potentially without Gabe Vincent again, the Heat have no choice but to play their best brand of defense, and they know that they're in bad shape if they have to go back to Boston for game 7. The pace dropped in game 5, too, and we saw a barrage of turnovers and just more physical play from both teams, especially when the game was closer in the 1st half. The short ATS line and importance of this game tells me it'll be a close battle throughout, and that has to mean the tempo will halt even more and we'll see a really defensive battle for stretches of time, probably at the margin of every quarter. Give me a fookin' under. |
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05-25-23 | Aces v. Sparks OVER 172.5 | 94-85 | Win | 100 | 23 h 59 m | Show | |
The Sparks came out looking very fluid offensively in their first game, and at the start of the season these teams tend to play a lot more offense and care a lot less about playing stifling defense. This is another opportunity for Vegas, arguably the association's best team, to put on a show. Their talent is nearly impossible to stop but I think the home team Sparks score enough of their own, they probably hit 80, and that should be enough to drive this over.Â
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05-25-23 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 9 | 3-1 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
There is no evidence that the scoring will slow down in this series, especially with the two pitchers starting Thursday.Â
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05-23-23 | Rangers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Rich Hill allows too many HRs but the Pirates are at the bottom of MLB the last two weeks in slugging % and hitting home-runs. This isn't a team we fear offensively right now, even with some positive regression recently, and Eovaldi has been at his most steady since arriving in Texas. Taking the under.Â
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 7 m | Show | |
If we thought game two was contentious and physical, this is about to take on a whole new level. The Heat defense won't be pussy or porous at home and the Celtics must prevent Miami from going on runs if they have a chance to win in this series. I think we see an incredibly slow pace for large segments of this game, should look more like the NYK/Miami series, and this closes around 200.Â
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05-20-23 | Angela Hill v. Mackenzie Dern OVER 4.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Dern/Hill over 4.5 rounds (-140), to win 1.5 unitsToo juiced to put too many units on this but this is the definition of a women's over narrative. Hill and Dern are formidable strikers but neither has incredible power and in a main event where both women could catapult their standings in the strawweight division. This one's going to last. Â
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 223.5 | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 4 m | Show | |
Lakers -4 (-110), to win 4 unitsAnthony Davis over 40.5 PAR (-110), to win 2 unitsNuggets/Lakers under 223.5 (-110), to win 2 units
It's already moving up to -4.5 at some books. I'd be SHOCKED if they didn't win and cover game three at home. It's a super desperate spot and Denver doesn't play as well on the road. Hasn't all year or the playoffs.A rare 4 unit play for a reason. Anthony Davis at only 40.5 PAR is ABSURD considering he is THE one and only x-factor for the Lakers. If he dominates, they win, and now he's due at home. The Lakers plan will be to attack the point and feed AD early, that's what they've done in the past and I see no reason why they wouldn't here. Denver's offense will also take a dip on the road. Under for me, love it. 223.5 is way too high; I have it at 215. |
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05-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Have the Pittsburgh bats found their groove again? It appears so. And this is about as good an opportunity as any against 24 year old Brandon Pfaadt, who's 8.59 ERA (and 13.50 ERA on the road) in three starts doesn't seem promising.Â
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05-20-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 6-5 | Win | 105 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
I'd be pretty stunned, on a humid Toronto day, if the bats of Baltimore and Toronto can't get going nice and early in this contest. Two poor pitchers, two great offenses and great setups for an over.Â
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05-17-23 | Pirates v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Lots of reasons to fade the Pirates lately as they continue to struggle to score; we'll take an under because of it-- it's not like Detroit is a bunch of world-beaters offensively, either.Â
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 222 | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
The Nuggets met 4x during the regular season and tied their series 2-2, but that doesn't really have an affect on this game. All four previous matchups were before the trade deadline and therefore a different version of the Lakers. They were also at a time where Jamal Murray wasn't as comfortable or back to a more regular version of himself. In these NBA playoffs, the Nuggets won the first half of their first game against Minnesota by an 11 point margin and the first half of the first game against Phoenix by a 17 point margin. Since they're the #1 seed, both contests were at home, as will this opener against LAL. Since this version of the Lakers has yet to experience how potent Denver can be on their home floor, we like that advantage for the Nuggets (PS - they beat LAL in their two home games this season, not that it necessarily matters much here). Denver is also coming off more rest and they've been extremely effective at home all year (119 rating during the reg season, 2nd overall, and 118 rating in the postseason, 4th overall). I think this game will look a lot like their opener against the Suns, where a defense as well-coached as LAL still can't stop the proliferate-talent Denver can offer, thus an under. LAL's pace will help, too, and both of their opening games hit over 230 (one hit 240)-- their defense isn't as crisp early on, plus they're tired as shit. Anyway, we love these looks!Â
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05-16-23 | Angels v. Orioles OVER 9 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
Angels/Orioles over 9 (-115), to win 1.5 unitsChase Silseth is starting to show his true colors, and at 22 years old it's no surprise that his command looks lackluster and against heavy hitting teams he's really going to struggle. Dean Kremer hasn't been much better. We're looking for overs in this game and I'll probably add another TT play on Baltimore tomorrow-- assuming they lose today, this is a perfect get-right spot behind a lot of offense on Tuesday.  Â
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05-13-23 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
 Giants/D-Backs No Run in 1st Inning (-130), to win 1 unitGiants/D-Backs under 7.5 (-110), to win 1 unitTwo pitchers I trust in what I expect to be a low-scoring affair. Same angle as Reds/Marlins.
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05-13-23 | Tim Means v. Alex Morono UNDER 2.5 | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Tim Means/Alex Morono over 2.5 rounds (-140), to win 1 unitAlex Morono to win by decision (+150), to win 1.5 unitsI wish it wasn't juiced but these two veteran tough guys aren't going to go down easily and this has fight of the night war written all over it. I like Morono by decision, to edge out the aging Means.
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05-13-23 | Reds v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 7 m | Show | |
Reds/Marlins No Run in 1st Inning (-140), to win 1 unitReds/Marlins under 7.5 (-115), to win 1 unitDerek Law has been very sharp and Alcantara is a pitcher we trust to positively regress, especially against teams that aren't all that intimidating offensively.Â
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | 101-122 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
 Knicks/Heat under 208.5 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsWarriors/Lakers under 221 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsThere's a reason both totals have dropped and we'll follow that line movement. Both the Lakers and Heat play A+ defense at home and both teams, although LAL is surely the faster and more inclined to run transition, will likely want to slow down these games and make the opposing offense operate at a high level in the half court. I think New York and Golden State both could win, they both hit their offensive strides in their last contest, but they're bound to regress on the road. Contentious game sixes await and I think the time of high-paced, efficient scoring is over for the remainder of this second round. I'll take two unders.
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