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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-28-24 | Kurt Kitayama +0.5 v. Alexander Noren | 73-69 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in two weeks. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fourth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for the last three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring will change how this course has played from the last three years. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. When this tournament was last played in November of 2022, the average score was over par at 70.556. For the last three seasons, this event was finished in the top 12 most difficult in terms of scoring. But with this entire course overseeded for the spring, the track will probably play easier this week. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens consist of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week with back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. DraftKings lists Scheffler’s odds to win this tournament at a very low +260 — clear underlay value as far as I am concerned. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has a great track record both here and when playing in his home state of Texas — and his putting has improved with his move to mallet putter. But his top priority is getting his body in shape and setting himself up for the Master’s in two weeks — so backing him this week comes with additional risk. At +260, the betting value lies elsewhere.
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03-28-24 | Tony Finau v. Jason Day +0.5 | 69-72 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in two weeks. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fourth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for the last three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring will change how this course has played from the last three years. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. When this tournament was last played in November of 2022, the average score was over par at 70.556. For the last three seasons, this event was finished in the top 12 most difficult in terms of scoring. But with this entire course overseeded for the spring, the track will probably play easier this week. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens consist of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week with back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. DraftKings lists Scheffler’s odds to win this tournament at a very low +260 — clear underlay value as far as I am concerned. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has a great track record both here and when playing in his home state of Texas — and his putting has improved with his move to mallet putter. But his top priority is getting his body in shape and setting himself up for the Master’s in two weeks — so backing him this week comes with additional risk. At +260, the betting value lies elsewhere. Day is linked with Tony Finau in Round One head-to-head props. Finau is the reigning champion from the November 2022 incarnation of this tournament. Finau had made seven straight cuts this year before missing the cut by five strokes last week at the Valspar Championship. But only one of those seven finishes was in the top 12 — and four of his results this year have been top 45 or worse. Finau ranks only 79th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance with his short game holding him back this year. He ranks 132nd in Scrambling and 144th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He missed the cut at this tournament in 2021 after a 24th place in 2020. And while Finau ranks 63rd on the tour this season in Round One scoring, Day ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in Round One scoring so far for 2024. Take Day (7136) versus Finau (7135) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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03-28-24 | Siwoo Kim -135 v. Tom Hoge | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in two weeks. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fourth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for the last three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring will change how this course has played from the last three years. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. When this tournament was last played in November of 2022, the average score was over par at 70.556. For the last three seasons, this event was finished in the top 12 most difficult in terms of scoring. But with this entire course overseeded for the spring, the track will probably play easier this week. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens consist of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week with back-to-back first-place finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. DraftKings lists Scheffler’s odds to win this tournament at a very low +260 — clear underlay value as far as I am concerned. Just as a gentle reminder for those scared to not take Scheffler this week: even when Tiger Woods was at his peak, he was only winning PGA events 27% of the time — and he was averaging more than +1.0 Shots-Gained versus the field than what Scheffler is currently registering. Scheffler has a great track record both here and when playing in his home state of Texas — and his putting has improved with his move to mallet putter. But his top priority is getting his body in shape and setting himself up for the Master’s in two weeks — so backing him this week comes with additional risk. At +260, the betting value lies elsewhere. |
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03-14-24 | Shane Lowry -125 v. Cameron Young | 71-70 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7275 yards. The challenges are numerous with 92 bunkers and water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The overseeded rough reaches four inches. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter. |
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03-14-24 | Collin Morikawa v. Will Zalatoris +0.5 | 71-73 | Loss | -126 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7275 yards. The challenges are numerous with 92 bunkers and water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The overseeded rough reaches four inches. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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03-14-24 | Max Homa v. Hideki Matsuyama +0.5 | 68-69 | Loss | -124 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7275 yards. The challenges are numerous with 92 bunkers and water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The overseeded rough reaches four inches. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter. TOP OVERLAY BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7152) versus Max Homa (7019) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:25 PM ET. |
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03-07-24 | Matthew Fitzpatrick -130 v. Cameron Young | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 3 1/2 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure from 12 to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze could ramp up to 20-25 miles per hour on Saturday before perhaps bigger weather issues on Sunday. This is the fourth signature event in 2024 with 69 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut. LONG SHOT: Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7027) versus Cameron Young (7028) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:45 AM ET. |
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03-07-24 | Viktor Hovland -126 v. Collin Morikawa | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 3 1/2 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure from 12 to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze could ramp up to 20-25 miles per hour on Saturday before perhaps bigger weather issues on Sunday. This is the fourth signature event in 2024 with 69 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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03-07-24 | Max Homa v. Sam Burns -120 | 1-0 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 3 1/2 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure from 12 to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze could ramp up to 20-25 miles per hour on Saturday before perhaps bigger weather issues on Sunday. This is the fourth signature event in 2024 with 69 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut.
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02-29-24 | Eric Cole -107 v. Sungjae Im | 0-1 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next three weeks beginning with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort. The former Honda Classic moves from a Par 70 to a Par 71 this year with the tenth hole being converted from a 508-yard Par 4 hole to a Par 5 hole consisting of 530 yards under its new sponsor. The course length is now 7147 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 60 sand bunkers. The tight fairways are only 30 yards in length on average. The Bermuda grass rough has been reduced from three inches to 2 1/24 inches. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. |
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02-29-24 | Cameron Young v. Russell Henley -114 | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next three weeks beginning with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort. The former Honda Classic moves from a Par 70 to a Par 71 this year with the tenth hole being converted from a 508 yard Par 4 hole to a Par 5 hole consisting of 530 yards under its new sponsor. The course length is now 7147 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 60 sand bunkers. The tight fairways are only 30 yards in length on average. The Bermuda grass rough has been reduced from three-inches to 2 1/24 inches. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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02-29-24 | Corey Conners v. Chris Kirk +0.5 | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next three weeks beginning with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort. The former Honda Classic moves from a Par 70 to a Par 71 this year with the tenth hole being converted from a 508 yard Par 4 hole to a Par 5 hole consisting of 530 yards under its new sponsor. The course length is now 7147 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 60 sand bunkers. The tight fairways are only 30 yards in length on average. The Bermuda grass rough has been reduced from three-inches to 2 1/24 inches. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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02-22-24 | Jake Knapp +0.5 v. Ryo Hisatsune | 67-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter. LONG SHOT: Jake Knapp (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Knapp (7123) versus Ryo Hisatsune (7124) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:55 AM ET. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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02-22-24 | Nicolaj Hojgaard -138 v. Emiliano Grillo | 0-1 | Loss | -138 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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02-22-24 | Patrick Rodgers v. Taylor Pendrith +1.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter. |
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02-15-24 | Max Homa v. Adam Scott +0.5 | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour completes its west coast swing by moving to the Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California outside Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational. Tiger Woods is the host for the third signature event for the 2024 season. This Par-71 course consists of 7322 yards with three Par 5 holes. Seventy players will compete with the Day Three cut narrowing the field to the top 50 players (plus ties) while ensuring that everyone within ten strokes of the lead plays the weekend. The professionals are challenged by 58 bunkers, fairways protected by trees, and elevated greens. The overseeded greens average 7500 square feet in size and feature Poa annua grass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is typically graded as one of the top ten most difficult on the PGA Tour while being considered a thinker’s course regarding how to avoid the bunkers and find strategic placements on some of the largest greens on the tour. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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02-15-24 | Rory McIlroy v. Xander Schauffele +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour completes its west coast swing by moving to the Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California outside Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational. Tiger Woods is the host for the third signature event for the 2024 season. This Par-71 course consists of 7322 yards with three Par 5 holes. Seventy players will compete with the Day Three cut narrowing the field to the top 50 players (plus ties) while ensuring that everyone within ten strokes of the lead plays the weekend. The professionals are challenged by 58 bunkers, fairways protected by trees, and elevated greens. The overseeded greens average 7500 square feet in size and feature Poa annua grass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is typically graded as one of the top ten most difficult on the PGA Tour while being considered a thinker’s course regarding how to avoid the bunkers and find strategic placements on some of the largest greens on the tour. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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02-15-24 | Viktor Hovland v. Sam Burns +0.5 | 70-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour completes its west coast swing by moving to the Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California outside Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational. Tiger Woods is the host for the third signature event for the 2024 season. This Par-71 course consists of 7322 yards with three Par 5 holes. Seventy players will compete with the Day Three cut narrowing the field to the top 50 players (plus ties) while ensuring that everyone within ten strokes of the lead plays the weekend. The professionals are challenged by 58 bunkers, fairways protected by trees, and elevated greens. The overseeded greens average 7500 square feet in size and feature Poa annua grass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is typically graded as one of the top ten most difficult on the PGA Tour while being considered a thinker’s course regarding how to avoid the bunkers and find strategic placements on some of the largest greens on the tour. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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02-08-24 | Si Woo Kim v. JT Poston -119 | 68-70 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course. The 132 professionals will contend with 68 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The rainstorms we have been experiencing in the southwest will continue the first few days of this tournament with the temperatures expected in the mid-50s. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two. TOP OVERLAY BET: JT Poston (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Poston (7147) versus Si Woo Kim (7130) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 2:55 PM ET. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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02-08-24 | Scottie Scheffler v. Justin Thomas +0.5 | 68-69 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course. The 132 professionals will contend with 68 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The rainstorms we have been experiencing in the southwest will continue the first few days of this tournament with the temperatures expected in the mid-50s. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two. |
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02-08-24 | Hideki Matsuyama +0.5 v. Cameron Young | 69-67 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course. The 132 professionals will contend with 68 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The rainstorms we have been experiencing in the southwest will continue the first few days of this tournament with the temperatures expected in the mid-50s. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two. LONG SHOT: Hideki Matsuyama (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7135) versus Cameron Young (7136) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:30 PM ET. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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02-01-24 | Viktor Hovland +1.5 v. Xander Schauffele | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event has undergone some changes now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs will play on Thursday and Friday but will no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, weather will play a major role this week with the conditions akin to what is expected at British Opens. Rain is expected on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. Heavy winds are expected with gusts up to 30 miles per hour — and Sunday may even see winds approach 60 miles per hour. The temperature will be in the mid-50s. |
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02-01-24 | Max Homa -115 v. Collin Morikawa | 69-67 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event has undergone some changes now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs will play on Thursday and Friday but will no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, weather will play a major role this week with the conditions akin to what is expected at British Opens. Rain is expected on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. Heavy winds are expected with gusts up to 30 miles per hour — and Sunday may even see winds approach 60 miles per hour. The temperature will be in the mid-50s. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Max Homa is who listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Homa has registered nine straight top-15 finishes after his tie for 13th place last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has gained +6 strokes versus the field per round in ten straight tournaments. Homa loves to play in his home state of California on a course with Poa Annua greens. In his 15 career starts in California, he now has 13 top 20 finishes with four top ten results and four PGA Tour victories. He comes into the event with great form after winning the Redbank Golf Challenge in November. He has finished in the top ten in ten of his last 15 events including eight top ten results in his last 11 tournaments. He enjoyed 12 top-ten finishes in 2023. He began 2024 with a solid tie for 14th place in Hawai’i at The Sentry earlier this month. Homa is reliable on these courses because of his effective ball-striking — he ranked fourth on the PGA Tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and he was 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Homa also ranked 15th on the tour in Par-4 Scoring — and nine of the last ten winners of this tournament finished the week first or second in Par-4 Scoring. Homa has played in this tournament six times — and he has lurked in his last three appearances with a tie for 10th place, a tie for 14th place, and a tie for seventh place. Homa is also one of the best players in bad weather. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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02-01-24 | Cameron Young v. Tommy Fleetwood -130 | 71-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event has undergone some changes now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs will play on Thursday and Friday but will no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, weather will play a major role this week with the conditions akin to what is expected at British Opens. Rain is expected on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. Heavy winds are expected with gusts up to 30 miles per hour — and Sunday may even see winds approach 60 miles per hour. The temperature will be in the mid-50s. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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01-24-24 | Sepp Straka v. Harris English +0.5 | 73-68 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. The 156 professionals will rotate between the North and South Courses on Wednesday and Thursday before the top 65 golfers making the cut advance to the final two rounds which will be played at the South course. Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The Kikuyu grass rough grows out to four inches. The North Course plays much easier than the South Course — it ranks as one of the easiest tracks on the tour. At 7258 yards, the pros on the North Course shot an average of 2.1 shots better there than on the South Course which consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways and small greens. The Poa Annua greens on the South Course play slower and can be more of a challenge than the Bentgrass putting surface on the North Course. The South Course was the hardest non-major tournament last year with the average scoring coming in at 73.623. |
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01-24-24 | Patrick Cantlay v. Max Homa +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. The 156 professionals will rotate between the North and South Courses on Wednesday and Thursday before the top 65 golfers making the cut advance to the final two rounds which will be played at the South course. Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The Kikuyu grass rough grows out to four inches. The North Course plays much easier than the South Course — it ranks as one of the easiest tracks on the tour. At 7258 yards, the pros on the North Course shot an average of 2.1 shots better there than on the South Course which consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways and small greens. The Poa Annua greens on the South Course play slower and can be more of a challenge than the Bentgrass putting surface on the North Course. The South Course was the hardest non-major tournament last year with the average scoring coming in at 73.623. |
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01-24-24 | Keegan Bradley -127 v. Sahith Theegala | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 20 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. The 156 professionals will rotate between the North and South Courses on Wednesday and Thursday before the top 65 golfers making the cut advance to the final two rounds which will be played at the South course. Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The Kikuyu grass rough grows out to four inches. The North Course plays much easier than the South Course — it ranks as one of the easiest tracks on the tour. At 7258 yards, the pros on the North Course shot an average of 2.1 shots better there than on the South Course which consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways and small greens. The Poa Annua greens on the South Course play slower and can be more of a challenge than the Bentgrass putting surface on the North Course. The South Course was the hardest non-major tournament last year with the average scoring coming in at 73.623. |
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01-18-24 | Tom Kim -110 v. Min Woo Lee | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This Pro-am event features 156 professional golfers paired in threes with one amateur for the first three days rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. All three courses are less than 7200 yards in length. The rough goes no higher than two inches high. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend overseeded with Poa Annua and ryegrass that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. |
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01-18-24 | Wyndham Clark -120 v. Rickie Fowler | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This Pro-am event features 156 professional golfers paired in threes with one amateur for the first three days rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. All three courses are less than 7200 yards in length. The rough goes no higher than two inches high. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend overseeded with Poa Annua and ryegrass that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. |
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01-18-24 | JT Poston +1.5 v. Tony Finau | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This Pro-am event features 156 professional golfers paired in threes with one amateur for the first three days rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. All three courses are less than 7200 yards in length. The rough goes no higher than two inches high. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend overseeded with Poa Annua and ryegrass that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. |
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01-11-24 | JT Poston -110 v. Eric Cole | 70-66 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The Hawai’i start to the 2024 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 68.87 per round. The rough is relatively short with it grown out to 3 1/2 inches. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week with the stimpmeter topping at 12 feet on the Bermuda greens.
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01-11-24 | Russell Henley +100 v. Corey Conners | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The Hawai’i start to the 2024 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 68.87 per round. The rough is relatively short with it grown out to 3 1/2 inches. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week with the stimpmeter topping at 12 feet on the Bermuda greens. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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01-11-24 | Hideki Matsuyama v. Harris English -140 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The Hawai’i start to the 2024 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 68.87 per round. The rough is relatively short with it grown out to 3 1/2 inches. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week with the stimpmeter topping at 12 feet on the Bermuda greens.
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01-04-24 | Jordan Spieth v. Sungjae Im +1.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2023-24 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. In practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough has grown a 1/4 of an inch since last year up to 2 1/2 inches. Winds of up to 20 miles per hour are expected for at least the first three days. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 59 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings. |
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01-04-24 | Ludvig Aberg v. Xander Schauffele -144 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2023-24 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. In practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough has grown a 1/4 of an inch since last year up to 2 1/2 inches. Winds of up to 20 miles per hour are expected for at least the first three days. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 59 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings. |
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01-04-24 | Viktor Hovland v. Collin Morikawa +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2023-24 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. In practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough has grown a 1/4 of an inch since last year up to 2 1/2 inches. Winds of up to 20 miles per hour are expected for at least the first three days. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 59 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings. |
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08-24-23 | Scottie Scheffler v. Viktor Hovland +0.5 | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards. While there are only two Par-5 holes on the course, length off the tee still gives the professionals an advantage. This is a Donald Ross-designed track with thick 419 Bermuda grass of up to 2 1/2 inches punishing shots that miss the fairway. The pros will encounter 74 sand bunkers and water that impacts six of the holes. The greens consist of Bermuda grass that averages 5600 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The field consists of 29 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 30 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that (for example, “gross score”). The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring). |
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08-24-23 | Xander Schauffele -120 v. Tom Kim | 67-67 | Push | 0 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards. While there are only two Par-5 holes on the course, length off the tee still gives the professionals an advantage. This is a Donald Ross-designed track with thick 419 Bermuda grass of up to 2 1/2 inches punishing shots that miss the fairway. The pros will encounter 74 sand bunkers and water that impacts six of the holes. The greens consist of Bermuda grass that averages 5600 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The field consists of 29 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 30 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that (for example, “gross score”). The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring). |
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08-24-23 | Sungjae Im -140 v. Tom Kim | 0-1 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards. While there are only two Par-5 holes on the course, length off the tee still gives the professionals an advantage. This is a Donald Ross-designed track with thick 419 Bermuda grass of up to 2 1/2 inches punishing shots that miss the fairway. The pros will encounter 74 sand bunkers and water that impacts six of the holes. The greens consist of Bermuda grass that averages 5600 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The field consists of 29 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 30 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that (for example, “gross score”). The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring). |
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08-17-23 | Scottie Scheffler v. Jon Rahm +0.5 | 66-68 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The second leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship in the south side of Chicago. The North Course at the Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia Fields, Illinois hosts this event this year. This course was the site of the 2003 US Open as well as the BMW Championship in 2020. It’s a difficult course well worthy of a US Open this century. In 2020, this event was the fourth-hardest course on the PGA Tour that season — and the 71.85 average score was the second hardest Par 70 that year. Once again, this will be a Par 70 event with the course consisting of 7366 yards. The two Par 5s are longer than 600 yards and eight of the 12 Par 4s are at least 440 yards. Water is in play in eight of the 18 holes. The 50 professionals will contend with narrow fairways lined by trees, bluegrass rough of up to four inches, and 91 sand bunkers on the course. The greens are made of Bentgrass with a Poa Annua blend that averages a small 5238 square feet and measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. There are no cuts in the FedEx playoffs. The top 32 in the FedEx standings after this tournament will advance to Atlanta for the Tour Championship. Rahm is linked with Scottie Scheffler in Round One head-to-head props. The analytics love Scheffler — he leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Total, Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. But he has not won a tournament despite those rankings since THE Players Championship in March. Even worse, he is in a relative slump at this point of the season by ranking 18th in the field in Shots-Gained: Total in his 12 rounds and 27th in the field in Shots-Gained: Total in his 18 rounds. But beyond that loss in form, Scheffler’s putter is holding him back. At the FedEx St. Jude last week, he lost -44.2 strokes versus the field just in his Saturday Round Three. He ranks 146th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. Scheffler settled for 20th place when he played in this tournament at Olympia Fields in 2020. Take Rahm (7146) versus Scheffler (7145) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab Rahm at +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
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08-17-23 | Wyndham Clark v. Viktor Hovland -145 | 66-69 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The second leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship in the south side of Chicago. The North Course at the Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia Fields, Illinois hosts this event this year. This course was the site of the 2003 US Open as well as the BMW Championship in 2020. It’s a difficult course well worthy of a US Open this century. In 2020, this event was the fourth-hardest course on the PGA Tour that season — and the 71.85 average score was the second hardest Par 70 that year. Once again, this will be a Par 70 event with the course consisting of 7366 yards. The two Par 5s are longer than 600 yards and eight of the 12 Par 4s are at least 440 yards. Water is in play in eight of the 18 holes. The 50 professionals will contend with narrow fairways lined by trees, bluegrass rough of up to four inches, and 91 sand bunkers on the course. The greens are made of Bentgrass with a Poa Annua blend that averages a small 5238 square feet and measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. There are no cuts in the FedEx playoffs. The top 32 in the FedEx standings after this tournament will advance to Atlanta for the Tour Championship. |
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08-17-23 | Corey Conners +0.5 v. Tyrrell Hatton | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The second leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship in the south side of Chicago. The North Course at the Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia Fields, Illinois hosts this event this year. This course was the site of the 2003 US Open as well as the BMW Championship in 2020. It’s a difficult course well worthy of a US Open this century. In 2020, this event was the fourth-hardest course on the PGA Tour that season — and the 71.85 average score was the second hardest Par 70 that year. Once again, this will be a Par 70 event with the course consisting of 7366 yards. The two Par 5s are longer than 600 yards and eight of the 12 Par 4s are at least 440 yards. Water is in play in eight of the 18 holes. The 50 professionals will contend with narrow fairways lined by trees, bluegrass rough of up to four inches, and 91 sand bunkers on the course. The greens are made of Bentgrass with a Poa Annua blend that averages a small 5238 square feet and measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. There are no cuts in the FedEx playoffs. The top 32 in the FedEx standings after this tournament will advance to Atlanta for the Tour Championship. |
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08-10-23 | Wyndham Clark -115 v. Brian Harman | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The first leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the FedEx St.Jude Championship. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee hosts this event for the second straight year after a long history of hosting major tournaments. This a Par 70 course consisting of 7243 yards with only two Par 5s. The fairways average a narrow 25 yards in width — this track ranks in the top-ten hardest fairways to hit on the tour. Water comes into play on 11 of the holes — with four impacting off-the-tee — with fairway bunkers impacting eight more of the Par 4 or Par 5 tests. The Bermuda grass rough has grown out another half inch from last year’s tournament to top off at three inches this week. The Bermuda greens average only 4500 square feet which will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. For the first time, there will be no cuts in the first playoff tournament so the 70 golfers competing this week are all guaranteed to play the weekend. The top 50 players this week advance to the BMW Championship next week.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the best odds relative to the odds is on Wyndham Clark who is listed at +2800 to win at DraftKings. Clark has taken the next step in his development by winning twice on the PGA Tour this season including capturing his first US Open in June. He will play in his first Tour Championship in two weeks — and he fits the profile of a pro who will be extra-motivated to put up a big score this week to rise in the FedEx rankings where he currently ranks fifth. While veterans like Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy are looking to peak in Atlanta in two more weeks for that final event of the year, Clark will be amped to sake his claim now. The final event at East Lake uses a staggered scoring system to reward the standings going into the week. Clark was solid in his three tournaments since winning the US Open with his tie for 33rd place at the British Open in his last start being his worst finish. He is a balanced golfer who is proficient with all the clubs in his bag after improving with his approach play this year. He has gained +0.55 shots per round versus the field in Approach-the-Green this season. Clark’s natural fade should help at TPC Southwind as well — he plays with a fade in shots 75% with his long game. Seven of the 14 Par 4 or 5s at this course dog-leg left-to-right — and a fade avoids the water on two of these holes. Six of the last seven winners at TPC Southwind have the left-to-right fade in common as they averaged hitting fades in 68% of their shots off-the-tee. He has experience at this course where he finished tied for 28th place last year. |
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08-10-23 | Xander Schauffele v. Viktor Hovland +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The first leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the FedEx St.Jude Championship. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee hosts this event for the second straight year after a long history of hosting major tournaments. This a Par 70 course consisting of 7243 yards with only two Par 5s. The fairways average a narrow 25 yards in width — this track ranks in the top-ten hardest fairways to hit on the tour. Water comes into play on four of the holes with fairway bunkers impacting eight more of the Par 4 or Par 5 tests. The Bermuda grass rough has grown out another half inch from last year’s tournament to top off at three inches this week. The Bermuda greens average only 4500 square feet which will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. For the first time, there will be no cuts in the first playoff tournament so the 70 golfers competing this week are all guaranteed to play the weekend. The top 50 players this week advance to the BMW Championship next week. |
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08-10-23 | Sam Burns +1.5 v. Max Homa | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The first leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the FedEx St.Jude Championship. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee hosts this event for the second straight year after a long history of hosting major tournaments. This a Par 70 course consisting of 7243 yards with only two Par 5s. The fairways average a narrow 25 yards in width — this track ranks in the top-ten hardest fairways to hit on the tour. Water comes into play on 11 of the holes — with four impacting off-the-tee — with fairway bunkers impacting eight more of the Par 4 or Par 5 tests. The Bermuda grass rough has grown out another half inch from last year’s tournament to top off at three inches this week. The Bermuda greens average only 4500 square feet which will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. For the first time, there will be no cuts in the first playoff tournament so the 70 golfers competing this week are all guaranteed to play the weekend. The top 50 players this week advance to the BMW Championship next week. |
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08-03-23 | Adam Hadwin -130 v. Patrick Rodgers | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s final event before the FedEx Playoffs next week takes place this week with the Wyndham Classic being hosted once again at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Par 70 course designed by Donald Ross consisting of 7131 yards. The average score last year at this event was 69.263 which was a nine-year high. Six of the last seven winners posted a score of 20 under par or better — so lower scores are expected. Only two of the holes are Par 5s. Eight of the Par 4 holes measure 400 to 450 yards in length. The fairways are protected by trees with the rough being up to 2 1/2 inches in length. The putting surface consists of Bermuda grass that averages up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6500 square feet. |
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08-03-23 | Sungjae Im v. Denny McCarthy -120 | 69-71 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 52 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s final event before the FedEx Playoffs next week takes place this week with the Wyndham Classic being hosted once again at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Par 70 course designed by Donald Ross consisting of 7131 yards. The average score last year at this event was 69.263 which was a nine-year high. Six of the last seven winners posted a score of 20 under par or better — so lower scores are expected. Only two of the holes are Par 5s. Eight of the Par 4 holes measure 400 to 450 yards in length. The fairways are protected by trees with the rough being up to 2 1/2 inches in length. The putting surface consists of Bermuda grass that averages up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6500 square feet. |
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08-03-23 | Russell Henley -115 v. Hideki Matsuyama | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s final event before the FedEx Playoffs next week takes place this week with the Wyndham Classic being hosted once again at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Par 70 course designed by Donald Ross consisting of 7131 yards. The average score last year at this event was 69.263 which was a nine-year high. Six of the last seven winners posted a score of 20 under par or better — so lower scores are expected. Only two of the holes are Par 5s. Eight of the Par 4 holes measure 400 to 450 yards in length. The fairways are protected by trees with the rough being up to 2 1/2 inches in length. The putting surface consists of Bermuda grass that averages up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6500 square feet. |
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07-27-23 | Hideki Matsuyama -147 v. Justin Thomas | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to the United States just two more events before the FedEx Playoffs begin next month with three tournaments. First up for the professionals is the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This Arnold Palmer-designed Par 71 course consists of 7431 yards featuring three Par 5 holes that are all at least 590 yards away from the tee box. Water is in play in 15 of the 18 holes with 27 penalty areas. The primary rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass that measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter on greens that average 6500 square feet. This is the fifth straight year that the PGA 3M Open has taken place at the TPC Twin Cities. |
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07-27-23 | Tony Finau v. Sungjae Im +1.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 0 h 29 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to the United States just two more events before the FedEx Playoffs begin next month with three tournaments. First up for the professionals is the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This Arnold Palmer-designed Par 71 course consists of 7431 yards featuring three Par 5 holes that are all at least 590 yards away from the tee box. Water is in play in 15 of the 18 holes with 27 penalty areas. The primary rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass that measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter on greens that average 6500 square feet. This is the fifth straight year that the PGA 3M Open has taken place at the TPC Twin Cities. |
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07-27-23 | Lucas Glover +1.5 v. Stephan Jaeger | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 0 h 28 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to the United States just two more events before the FedEx Playoffs begin next month with three tournaments. First up for the professionals is the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This Arnold Palmer-designed Par 71 course consists of 7431 yards featuring three Par 5 holes that are all at least 590 yards away from the tee box. Water is in play in 15 of the 18 holes with 27 penalty areas. The primary rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass that measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter on greens that average 6500 square feet. This is the fifth straight year that the PGA 3M Open has taken place at the TPC Twin Cities. |
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07-20-23 | Viktor Hovland +0.5 v. Rory McIlroy | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. Royal Liverpool located in the Wirral Peninsula in Hoylake, England hosts the Open Championship for the 13th time in the 151 incarnations of this tournament. This is the third time that the Open Championship will be played at Royal Liverpool this century. Tiger Woods claimed the Claret Jug here in 2006 before Rory McIlroy his most recent major championship title here in 2014. There are several changes to the course for the 156 professionals this time around. Previously a Par 72 setup, the course has been lowered to a Par 71 track due to the new Par 3 at the 17th hole leaving just three Par 5 holes for the professionals to tackle. The course has been lengthened from 7312 yards in 2014 to 7383 yards this week. Even more fairway bunkers have been added. The terrain is treacherous off-the-tee given so many sand bunkers — and six holes threaten with out-of-bounds territories that are very much in play. The fairways are flat but just a narrow 32 yards wide on average. The initial rough is manageable before the iconic tall fescue that makes hitting the greens in regulation virtually impossible. It was for these reasons that Woods historically pulled out his driver only once in his four rounds in his 2006 victory. McIlroy considered playing things safe on this links course that he used his two iron off-the-tee more often than his driver. The putting surface is slower than the other three major championships with the greens consisting of a Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and fescue blend. Weather will once again play a significant role in an Open Championship. Wind gusts in the 10-20 miles per hour range with mild rain are expected for Thursday and Friday. Heavy showers are expected for Saturday with rain still in the forecast for Sunday with the winds likely to hit up to 20 miles per hour. TOP OVERLAY BET: Viktor Hovland (+2200 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Hovland (7191) in Round One head-to-head props versus Rory McIlroy (7192) (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop comes off the board at 9:45 AM ET. |
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07-20-23 | Tom Kim v. Dustin Johnson -129 | 74-74 | Push | 0 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. Royal Liverpool located in the Wirral Peninsula in Hoylake, England hosts the Open Championship for the 13th time in the 151 incarnations of this tournament. This is the third time that the Open Championship will be played at Royal Liverpool this century. Tiger Woods claimed the Claret Jug here in 2006 before Rory McIlroy his most recent major championship title here in 2014. There are several changes to the course for the 156 professionals this time around. Previously a Par 72 setup, the course has been lowered to a Par 71 track due to the new Par 3 at the 17th hole leaving just three Par 5 holes for the professionals to tackle. The course has been lengthened from 7312 yards in 2014 to 7383 yards this week. Even more fairway bunkers have been added. The terrain is treacherous off-the-tee given so many sand bunkers — and six holes threaten with out-of-bounds territories that are very much in play. The fairways are flat but just a narrow 32 yards wide on average. The initial rough is manageable before the iconic tall fescue that makes hitting the greens in regulation virtually impossible. It was for these reasons that Woods historically pulled out his driver only once in his four rounds in his 2006 victory. McIlroy considered playing things safe on this links course that he used his two iron off-the-tee more often than his driver. The putting surface is slower than the other three major championships with the greens consisting of a Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and fescue blend. Weather will once again play a significant role in an Open Championship. Wind gusts in the 10-20 miles per hour range with mild rain are expected for Thursday and Friday. Heavy showers are expected for Saturday with rain still in the forecast for Sunday with the winds likely to hit up to 20 miles per hour. LONG SHOT: Dustin Johnson (+3000 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Johnson (7174) in Round One head-to-head props versus Tom Kim (7173). This prop goes off the board at 8 AM ET. |
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07-20-23 | Cameron Smith v. Brooks Koepka -129 | 1-0 | Loss | -129 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. Royal Liverpool located in the Wirral Peninsula in Hoylake, England hosts the Open Championship for the 13th time in the 151 incarnations of this tournament. This is the third time that the Open Championship will be played at Royal Liverpool this century. Tiger Woods claimed the Claret Jug here in 2006 before Rory McIlroy his most recent major championship title here in 2014. There are several changes to the course for the 156 professionals this time around. Previously a Par 72 setup, the course has been lowered to a Par 71 track due to the new Par 3 at the 17th hole leaving just three Par 5 holes for the professionals to tackle. The course has been lengthened from 7312 yards in 2014 to 7383 yards this week. Even more fairway bunkers have been added. The terrain is treacherous off-the-tee given so many sand bunkers — and six holes threaten with out-of-bounds territories that are very much in play. The fairways are flat but just a narrow 32 yards wide on average. The initial rough is manageable before the iconic tall fescue that makes hitting the greens in regulation virtually impossible. It was for these reasons that Woods historically pulled out his driver only once in his four rounds in his 2006 victory. McIlroy considered playing things safe on this links course that he used his two iron off-the-tee more often than his driver. The putting surface is slower than the other three major championships with the greens consisting of a Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and fescue blend. Weather will once again play a significant role in an Open Championship. Wind gusts in the 10-20 miles per hour range with mild rain are expected for Thursday and Friday. Heavy showers are expected for Saturday with rain still in the forecast for Sunday with the winds likely to hit up to 20 miles per hour. Our Best Bet to win the British Open is on Brooks Koepka who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Koepka only cares about the major championships — so assessing his season-long data is like evaluating Gerrit Cole’s pitching numbers including his bullpen sessions between starts. Koepka treats the LIV Tour as his practice sessions just as he did for the non-major events on the PGA Tour before his defection. He also used last summer’s move to the LIV Tour as a cover to continue to rehab and recover from his back issues. He has been fantastic this season in the three previous major championships. He was leading at the Masters going into the Sunday but still had to play a round and a half of golf that day given the rain delays that week. He settled for a tie for second place to Jon Rahm (who was our Best Bet). We were then on Koepka at the PGA Championship — and he rewarded us with the win at 22-1 odds. He settled for a tie for 17th place at the US Open last month — but that should leave him hungry to win his first Claret Jug. He would rank seventh and ninth in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green if his metrics from those three majors were eligible for the official PGA Tour rankings in those categories. Koepka is no longer on the PGA Tour — and he lacks the minimum sample size to qualify anyways, albeit on courses not nearly as challenging as the ones used for the three previous majors. Koepka is as well-rounded golfer as anyone in the world — and he is battle-tested with five championships in his last 23 majors. He is reliable with his putter — and he can handle extreme weather. He has finished in the top-ten four times in his six British Opens with a tie for fourth place in 2019 and a tie for sixth place in 2021. He missed the cut at last year’s British Open — but he was still dealing with his back issues and it was amidst the early hub-but regarding the establishment of the now allied LIV Tour. Koepka played this course in the 2014 British Open as well — and while he finished tied for 67th place in his debut at an Open Championship that year, the experience at the course should help him immensely now. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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07-13-23 | Rickie Fowler v. Tyrrell Hatton -115 | 67-69 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 34 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7237 yards, the tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, four Par 3s, and 11 Par 4s. The greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 10 feet on the stimpmeter. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses — and rain and high winds are expected. The Renaissance Club hosts the Scottish Open for the fifth straight year with this tournament. Our Best Bet to win the Scottish Open is on Tyrrell Hatton. He last played four weeks ago at the US Open when he finished tied for 27th place — but he has three top-fives and six top-20s in his last seven starts. He is perhaps a bit underrated right now when considering he trails only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm on the PGA Tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total. He ranks eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He has gained an average of +2.4 shots versus the field in Approach-the-Green in his last ten events. He has also gained an average of +2.5 shots versus the field Off-the-Tee in his last ten tournaments — and this is particularly relevant since his driver has been his Achilles’ heel in the past. Hatton is also an excellent putter who ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. In his last three tournaments, he has gained +5.6, +7.0, and +4.4 strokes versus the field with his blade. The Englishman has plenty of experience playing in this part of the world — he has 13 top-20s in his last 17 tournaments in Scotland. He has three top-24 results in his three previous visits to the Renaissance Club. He ranks sixth in the field (minimum eight rounds played) in Shots-Gained: Total in the previous four Scottish Opens at the Renaissance Club. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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07-13-23 | Shane Lowry v. Justin Rose +0.5 | 71-70 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7237 yards, the tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, four Par 3s, and 11 Par 4s. The greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 10 feet on the stimpmeter. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses — and rain and high winds are expected. The Renaissance Club hosts the Scottish Open for the fifth straight year with this tournament. |
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07-13-23 | Min Woo Lee -110 v. Sungjae Im | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show | |
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 7/13: |
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07-13-23 | Jordan Spieth v. Tommy Fleetwood -120 | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7237 yards, the tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, four Par 3s, and 11 Par 4s. The greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 10 feet on the stimpmeter. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses — and rain and high winds are expected. The Renaissance Club hosts the Scottish Open for the fifth straight year with this tournament. |
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07-06-23 | Eric Cole v. Alex Smalley -130 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course that consists of 7286 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass greens. The average winning score in the last five years here has been 21 under par — so this shapes up to be a birdie fest. Long Shot Bet: Adam Smalley (+3500 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: Smalley in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop versus Eric Cole. This prop goes off the board at 1:10 PM ET. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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07-06-23 | Denny McCarthy -130 v. Cameron Young | 0-0 | Push | 0 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course that consists of 7286 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass greens. The average winning score in the last five years here has been 21 under par — so this shapes up to be a birdie fest. Best Bet: Denny McCarthy (+1800 at DraftKings). Recommended prop bet: McCarthy (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop versus Cameron Young (7004). This prop goes off the board at 8;25 AM ET. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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07-06-23 | Ludvig Aberg v. Adam Schenk +1.5 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course that consists of 7286 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass greens. The average winning score in the last five years here has been 21 under par — so this shapes up to be a birdie fest. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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06-29-23 | Sungjae Im v. Hideki Matsuyama -118 | 1-0 | Loss | -118 | 1 h 57 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the midwest this week with the Rocket Mortgage Classic which is being hosted at the Detroit Golf Club for the fifth straight year. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7370 yards. The North Course is the primary track with 17 of the holes being played there while one hole from the South Course completes the setup for the professionals this week. This course was designed by Donald Ross — it features wide fairways and playable rough up to four inches of bluegrass. The putting surface is a Poa annua blend with Bentgrass that measures up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5150 square feet. Low scores are the norm that is considered one of the easier challenges on the PGA Tour. This tournament has seen top-ten Greens-In-Regulation numbers for the tour in each of the four previous events. The average score last year was 70.397. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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06-22-23 | Tony Finau v. Tommy Fleetwood +1.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves from Los Angeles to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated event for the 2022-23 season with 156 professionals competing for the $3.6 million prize for first place. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6852 yards, the course is the fourth shortest of the tracks in the PGA Tour rotation. The bluegrass rough is up to four inches in length. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. Low scores are expected with the average score being under par for five straight years. The average winning score since 2016 has been 16 under par. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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06-22-23 | Si Woo Kim v. Russell Henley -120 | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 1 h 41 m | Show | |
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves from Los Angeles to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated event for the 2022-23 season with 156 professionals competing for the $3.6 million prize for first place. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6852 yards, the course is the fourth shortest of the tracks in the PGA Tour rotation. The bluegrass rough is up to four inches in length. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. Low scores are expected with the average score being under par for five straight years. The average winning score since 2016 has been 16 under par. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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06-15-23 | Jordan Spieth v. Cameron Smith +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
TOP OVERLAY BET: Cameron Smith (+3000 at DraftKings) to win the tournament -- and take Smith (7024) versus Spieth (7023) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). THE SITUATION: The third major championship takes place week with the US Open hosted in California at the Los Angeles Country Club. The tournament takes place on the North Course consisting of 7421 yards at a Par of 70. The course has three Par-5s, five Par-3s, and six Par-4s of 480 or more yards in length with three of those at least 505 yards. Despite the length of this George C. Thomas-designed course, big drivers may not be rewarded this week — the North Course at the LA Country Club plays like a links course with crafty shot-making that takes advantage of the changes of contours and elevations on the fairways being at a premium. The fairways are wider than a typical US Open — but missing the fairways puts the Bermuda grass rough into play that will be up to three or four inches in length. The course draws comparisons to Augusta National despite water not being in play. The greens consist of Bentgrass with the undulated putting surfaces averaging 6500 square feet in length and that measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Like the WM Phoenix Open, the crowd is expected to play a role this week. Smith is linked with Jordan Spieth in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Jim Nantz’s second favorite golfer has an excellent short game (most of the time) — but what Smith offers with steely resolve and discipline, Spieth lacks. For every two amazing shots Spieth will pull off, he will then confound with a clunker which will cost him a stroke or two — especially if he is in contention. The analytics don’t measure the mental game — but I pay close attention. Spieth has not won a major championship since the 2017 British Open which was, admittedly, after the midterms in Obama’s second Presidential term. He finished tied for 29th place at the PGA Championship before missing the cut in his hometown Dallas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Amidst rumors of an injured wrist, he rebounded with a tied for fifth place at the Memorial two weeks ago. Maybe the wrist is no longer a factor — but it has to be worrisome. Frankly, Spieth’s reputation from the last decade has him overvalued when compared to the metrics. He only ranks 28th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green which betrays the notion that he is still an elite ball-striker. He ranks 137th in Driving Accuracy which could get him in trouble this week. He ranks 52nd in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 75th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is 52nd in Bogey Avoidance. When playing in California, the 29-year-old has only won one tournament in his career. Spieth did win the 2015 US Open — but he has not finished better than a tie for 35th place in his six US Opens since that triumph with two missed cuts. Take Smith (7024) versus Spieth (7023) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. |
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06-15-23 | Jon Rahm -118 v. Rory McIlroy | 0-1 | Loss | -118 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
BEST BET: Jon Rahm (+900 at DraftKings) -- and take Rahm (7009) versus McIlroy (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. THE SITUATION: The third major championship takes place week with the US Open hosted in California at the Los Angeles Country Club. The tournament takes place on the North Course consisting of 7421 yards at a Par of 70. The course has three Par-5s, five Par-3s, and six Par-4s of 480 or more yards in length with three of those at least 505 yards. Despite the length of this George C. Thomas-designed course, big drivers may not be rewarded this week — the North Course at the LA Country Club plays like a links course with crafty shot-making that takes advantage of the changes of contours and elevations on the fairways being at a premium. The fairways are wider than a typical US Open — but missing the fairways puts the Bermuda grass rough into play that will be up to three or four inches in length. The course draws comparisons to Augusta National despite water not being in play. The greens consist of Bentgrass with the undulated putting surfaces averaging 6500 square feet in length and that measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Like the WM Phoenix Open, the crowd is expected to play a role this week. Rahm is linked with Rory McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Jim Nantz’s favorite golfer and PGA figurehead for the wildly overblown PGA upper management rivalry with LIV golf has not won a major championship since 2014 back when Barack Obama was worried about the midterm elections of his second presidential term. But he remains a favorite to many bettors enamored by his good results often coming on strong Sundays after he was out of the running. After missing the cut at the Masters (distraught over the LIV business that helped him make more money on the PGA Tour?), he has registered three straight top-nines after his tie for ninth place at the RBC Canadian Open last week. But while Rahm has won five tournaments in the 2022-23 season, McIlroy has not won a tournament since October 2nd. Confidence seems to be an issue for him right now under the weight of heavy expectations — and that is not a good sign for someone who ranks 123rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. While the wider fairways will help, McIlroy’s wildness with his driver bodes for trouble this week. He ranks 186th in Driving Accuracy this season — and while his length Off-the-Tee usually makes up for this deficiency, the brutal Bermuda rough of up to four inches is a severe punishment for missing the fairway this week. McIlroy ranks 87th on the tour in Scrambling and 89th in Bogey Avoidance — so he may not be able to bail himself out if he gets in trouble. McIlory has only won one time in a tournament in California — and it was a match play event rather than a strokes play tournament. Take Rahm (7009) versus McIlroy (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
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06-15-23 | Jason Day v. Hideki Matsuyama -115 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show | |
LONG SHOT BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+4500 at DraftKings) — and take Matsuyama (7044) versus Day (7043) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. THE SITUATION: The third major championship takes place week with the US Open hosted in California at the Los Angeles Country Club. The tournament takes place on the North Course consisting of 7421 yards at a Par of 70. The course has three Par-5s, five Par-3s, and six Par-4s of 480 or more yards in length with three of those at least 505 yards. Despite the length of this George C. Thomas-designed course, big drivers may not be rewarded this week — the North Course at the LA Country Club plays like a links course with crafty shot-making that takes advantage of the changes of contours and elevations on the fairways being at a premium. The fairways are wider than a typical US Open — but missing the fairways puts the Bermuda grass rough into play that will be up to three or four inches in length. The course draws comparisons to Augusta National despite water not being in play. The greens consist of Bentgrass with the undulated putting surfaces averaging 6500 square feet in length and that measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Like the WM Phoenix Open, the crowd is expected to play a role this week. Matsuyama is linked with Jason Day for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. While maybe not as adorable as Rickie Fowler is in the eyes of Jim Nantz, Day still is high up there given his success in the Obama years. The 2015 PGA Champion has not finished better than a tie for 38th place at a major championship since Joe Biden was sworn into office. After missing the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship last month, Day won the AT&T Byron Nelson the next week. He followed that triumph up by missing the cut at PGA Championship and then the Memorial Tournament. Admittedly, Day is playing better this season — but he remains inconsistent. He ranks 114th on the tour for 2022-23 in Proximity 175 to 200 yards from the hole — and that sets up to be a problem for him this week given the length of the course especially on the long Par 4s. Day is trotting out new irons this week — and like the horse whose trainer is adding blinkers for the Kentucky Derby, that is a red flag for me to be gambling with something new for a major event. Since a tie for eighth place at the 2016 US Open, Day has missed the cut twice and has not finished better than 21st in his last four US Open visits. This is his first US Open since 2021. Take Matsuyama (7044) versus Day (7043) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. |
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06-08-23 | Shane Lowry +0.5 v. Cameron Young | 72-71 | Loss | -124 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves north to Northwest Toronto for the RBC Canadian Open. The Oakdale Golf and Country Club hosts the 114th Canadian national championship for the first time. The event will take place across the nine-hole courses with seven holes taking place at the Wilf Homenuik house and two holes on the Stanley Thompson course for the front nine. The back nine takes place at the George Knudson course. This event will be a Par 72 tournament consisting of 7264 yards with three Par 5s and three Par 3s. The fairways are tree-lined and undulated. The bluegrass rough will be up to five inches or higher. The greens consist of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua that will measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter.
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06-08-23 | Adrian Meronk -118 v. Alex Smalley | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves north to Northwest Toronto for the RBC Canadian Open. The Oakdale Golf and Country Club hosts the 114th Canadian national championship for the first time. The event will take place across the nine-hole courses with seven holes taking place at the Wilf Homenuik house and two holes on the Stanley Thompson course for the front nine. The back nine takes place at the George Knudson course. This event will be a Par 72 tournament consisting of 7264 yards with three Par 5s and three Par 3s. The fairways are tree-lined and undulated. The bluegrass rough will be up to five inches or higher. The greens consist of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua that will measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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06-08-23 | Justin Rose +1.5 v. Tommy Fleetwood | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves north to Northwest Toronto for the RBC Canadian Open. The Oakdale Golf and Country Club hosts the 114th Canadian national championship for the first time. The event will take place across the nine-hole courses with seven holes taking place at the Wilf Homenuik house and two holes on the Stanley Thompson course for the front nine. The back nine takes place at the George Knudson course. This event will be a Par 72 tournament consisting of 7264 yards with three Par 5s and three Par 3s. The fairways are tree-lined and undulated. The bluegrass rough will be up to five inches or higher. The greens consist of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua that will measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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06-01-23 | Rory McIlroy +1.5 v. Xander Schauffele | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7571 yards. This is the third event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. The fairways are wide but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The 120 professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. The greens consistently rank in the top-ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour. After last year’s average score was 73.064 per round, the last five editions of this event have seen an average score of +1 over par at 73. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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06-01-23 | Tyrrell Hatton +0.5 v. Xander Schauffele | 71-77 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7571 yards. This is the third event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. The fairways are wide but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The 120 professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. The greens consistently rank in the top-ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour. After last year’s average score was 73.064 per round, the last five editions of this event have seen an average score of +1 over par at 73. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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06-01-23 | Jordan Spieth v. Hideki Matsuyama -110 | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7571 yards. This is the third event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. The fairways are wide but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The 120 professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. The greens consistently rank in the top-ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour. After last year’s average score was 73.064 per round, the last five editions of this event have seen an average score of +1 over par at 73. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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05-25-23 | Collin Morikawa -110 v. Sungjae Im | 73-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7209 yards. Despite the impression of the total yardage length, this course plays as a shorter positional track. The four Par 3s are at least 190 yards and one of the Par 5 holes is 635 yards which gobbles up much of the yardage. Nine of the Par 4s are less than 445 yards in length. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with the greens averaging 5000 square feet. |
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05-25-23 | Max Homa v. Cameron Davis +0.5 | 67-68 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7209 yards. Despite the impression of the total yardage length, this course plays as a shorter positional track. The four Par 3s are at least 190 yards and one of the Par 5 holes is 635 yards which gobbles up much of the yardage. Nine of the Par 4s are less than 445 yards in length. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with the greens averaging 5000 square feet. |
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05-25-23 | Sam Burns v. Justin Rose -128 | 67-69 | Loss | -128 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7209 yards. Despite the impression of the total yardage length, this course plays as a shorter positional track. The four Par 3s are at least 190 yards and one of the Par 5 holes is 635 yards which gobbles up much of the yardage. Nine of the Par 4s are less than 445 yards in length. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with the greens averaging 5000 square feet. |
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05-18-23 | Brooks Koepka +1.5 v. Jason Day | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to Pittsford, New York — just outside Rochester — at the Oak Hills Country Club where the East Course will host the PGA Championship. This course is a familiar stop for elite events — this is the location for the 1989 US Open and this will be the fourth PGA Championship hosted by the Oak Hills Country Club although major renovations in 2019 will make this a different experience from the 2013 PGA Championship for 156 professionals competing this week. The biggest change from 2013 is that more than 600 trees protecting the fairways have been removed. Missing the fairway may be forgiving this year — and that favors the pros that are long off the tee. This is Par 70 consisting of 7394 yards. There are only two Par 5 holes and they both are more than 600 yards long. The pros will have to contend with 78 bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The greens are small — averaging 4800 square feet. The putting surface is pure Bentgrass that will measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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05-18-23 | Tony Finau v. Matthew Fitzpatrick +1.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to Pittsford, New York — just outside Rochester — at the Oak Hills Country Club where the East Course will host the PGA Championship. This course is a familiar stop for elite events — this is the location for the 1989 US Open and this will be the fourth PGA Championship hosted by the Oak Hills Country Club although major renovations in 2019 will make this a different experience from the 2013 PGA Championship for 156 professionals competing this week. The biggest change from 2013 is that more than 600 trees protecting the fairways have been removed. Missing the fairway may be forgiving this year — and that favors the pros that are long off the tee. This is Par 70 consisting of 7394 yards. There are only two Par 5 holes and they both are more than 600 yards long. The pros will have to contend with 78 bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The greens are small — averaging 4800 square feet. The putting surface is pure Bentgrass that will measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. |
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05-18-23 | Collin Morikawa v. Tyrrell Hatton +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to Pittsford, New York — just outside Rochester — at the Oak Hills Country Club where the East Course will host the PGA Championship. This course is a familiar stop for elite events — this is the location for the 1989 US Open and this will be the fourth PGA Championship hosted by the Oak Hills Country Club although major renovations in 2019 will make this a different experience from the 2013 PGA Championship for 156 professionals competing this week. The biggest change from 2013 is that more than 600 trees protecting the fairways have been removed. Missing the fairway may be forgiving this year — and that favors the pros that are long off the tee. This is Par 70 consisting of 7394 yards. There are only two Par 5 holes and they both are more than 600 yards long. The pros will have to contend with 78 bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The greens are small — averaging 4800 square feet. The putting surface is pure Bentgrass that will measure up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. |
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05-11-23 | Seamus Power -135 v. Maverick McNealy | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas, Texas for its third straight year hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge. Previously a Par 72, the low scores prompted the organizers to shorten the distance on a Par 5 hole last year by 54 yards to make it a Par 4. This event at TPC Craig Ranch has been one of the easiest courses on the tour. After scoring averages of 69.574 in 2021, the average score last year was 69.217. This is a long course consisting of 7414 yards with wide fairways that average 36.4 yards. The rough consists of Bermuda grass of up to three inches. The putting surface is Bentgrass greens that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter with the greens averaging 6900 square feet. Rain and wind are expected this week — especially on the weekend. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Seamus Power who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Power posted four top-25s early in 2023 but has been in a slump this spring. However, his tie for 18th place last week at the PGA Wells Fargo Championship was very encouraging as he gained strokes Off-the-Tee, Tee-to-Green, Around the Green, and Putting. Power thrives on easier courses. His two PGA Tour wins had him posting 21 under-par and 19 under-par scores. He ranks 23rd on the tour in Birdie or Better Average. He also ranks 26th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season — and he likes putting on Bentgrass. Power is also comfortable playing in windy conditions which could give him an edge this week. He finished tied for 9th place in 2021 at this tournament before a tie for 17th place last year — and he has averaged a score of 67.50 in those eight rounds. Power is linked with Maverick McNealy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McNealy dealt with an injury earlier this year that resulted in him withdrawing from two tournaments. He has recovered by making the cut in three of his last four events — but he has not finished better than tied for 36th in his last five tournaments. He last played two weeks ago at the PGA Mexico Open where he finished tied for 60th place. McNealy leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — but that skill will not give him as big an edge this week on easier greens. McNealy is reliable in avoiding bogies — but that will not be enough this week. He ranks just 90th in Birdies or Better Percentage this season. He ranks 176th in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee and he is 145th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He finished tied for 32nd place at this tournament last year. Take Power (7021) versus McNealy (7022) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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05-11-23 | Adam Hadwin v. Tom Hoge -117 | 1-0 | Loss | -117 | 0 h 19 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas, Texas for its third straight year hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge. Previously a Par 72, the low scores prompted the organizers to shorten the distance on a Par 5 hole last year by 54 yards to make it a Par 4. This event at TPC Craig Ranch has been one of the easiest courses on the tour. After scoring averages of 69.574 in 2021, the average score last year was 69.217. This is a long course consisting of 7414 yards with wide fairways that average 36.4 yards. The rough consists of Bermuda grass of up to three inches. The putting surface is Bentgrass greens that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter with the greens averaging 6900 square feet. Rain and wind are expected this week — especially on the weekend. Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-10 favorites is on Tom Hoge who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Hoge comes into this event rested after a 17th place at the doubles tournament at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans three weeks ago. After missing the cut in two straight events, that was an encouraging performance. Hoge did finish tied for 3rd place at THE Players Championship in March — and he won at Pebble Beach last year. Hoge leads the PGA Tour in 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is 2nd in the field in that metric in his last 24 rounds. Hoge also ranks 15th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation this season. Hoge can put up a big number this week — he ranks in the top 30 in Par 3, Par 4, and Par 5 Scoring. He also ranks 10th on the tour in Par Breakers. And with three of the Par 3s consisting of 200 or more yards this week, he ranks 5th in the field in his last 24 rounds in Par 3 Scoring on holes of 200 or more yards. The TCU grad finished tied for 17th place with all four of his rounds in the 60s. Hoge opened this week at +4000 odds — but his price dropping down to +3500 technically has him inside the top-ten favorites now. I am still calling him a Long Shot for our investment purposes. Hoge is linked with Adam Hadwin in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Hadwin missed the cut last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. He did finish in 2nd place at the Zurich Classic doubles tournament last month — but he has missed the cut in three of his last five and four of his last six individual tournaments. Hadwin is not long off the tee — he ranks 144th in Driving Distance for 2022-23 so he is not a great fit for TPC Craig Ranch. His lack of length off the tee contributes to his ranking 89th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. While he is usually a reliable ball-striker, he only ranks 70th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season. His profile does not translate well for easier courses like this where low scores are expected. Hadwin ranks 73rd in Birdies or Better Percentage this season. That does not bode well at a tournament that had 2228 total birdies last year which was the most at any PGA Tour event since 1983. There were also 104 Eagles last year which was the second most on the tour since 1983. Hadwin missed the cut in his lone appearance at TPC Craig Ranch last year. Take Hoge (7026) versus Hadwin (7025) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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05-11-23 | Tom Kim -128 v. Hideki Matsuyama | 0-1 | Loss | -128 | 0 h 14 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas, Texas for its third straight year hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge. Previously a Par 72, the low scores prompted the organizers to shorten the distance on a Par 5 hole last year by 54 yards to make it a Par 4. This event at TPC Craig Ranch has been one of the easiest courses on the tour. After scoring averages of 69.574 in 2021, the average score last year was 69.217. This is a long course consisting of 7414 yards with wide fairways that average 36.4 yards. The rough consists of Bermuda grass of up to three inches. The putting surface is Bentgrass greens that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter with the greens averaging 6900 square feet. Rain and wind are expected this week — especially on the weekend. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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05-04-23 | Collin Morikawa v. Cameron Young -135 | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7538 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. With lakes and trees serving as obstacles, the last three times that Quail Hollow has hosted this tournament, it has ranked as one of the top-eight most difficult events on the PGA Tour for the season. The putting surface consists of Bermudagrass with overseeing Poa annua grass. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Cameron Young who is listed at +1800 at DraftKings. Young began the week priced at +2000 — so while his odds have shortened, I am still endorsing him as one of our three golfers to target this week. Since joining the tour, Young has registered ten top-five finishes in his 38 professional events. While he is still looking for his first PGA Tour victory, he has finished second place six times. Young is one of the longest drivers on the tour — he ranks third in Driving Distance. In his last eight tournaments, he has gained +9.08 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and those results have corresponded with three top-ten finishes. Young is also a good ball striker who is long with his irons. He ranks 18th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He ranks fifth in the field in Proximity to the hole from 200 yards or farther in his last 24 rounds and he ranks fifth in the field this week in Par 4 Scoring on holes from 450-500 yards in his last 24 rounds. He has gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in six of his last eight events. Young did get professional experience at Quail Hollow at the President’s Cup last fall. His length should give him an edge this week. Young is linked with Collin Morikawa in Round One head-to-head props. Morikawa finished tenth at the Masters but then settled for a tie for 31st place at the RBC Heritage before missing the cut at the doubles event at the Zurich Classic two weeks ago. Quail Hollow is not a great fit for Morikawa’s skill set since he is not a big hitter off the tee. He ranks 147th on the tour in Driving Distance. He ranks 65th on the tour in the Approach from 200 yards or farther away. Putting is not Morikawa’s strong suit either — he ranks 140th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. The last three winners at Quail Hollow all finished in the top three for the week in putting. He does not have a course history edge on Young as his only trip here was for last year’s President’s Cup. Take Young (7138) versus Morikawa (7137) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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05-04-23 | Justin Thomas v. Viktor Hovland -115 | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7538 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. With lakes and trees serving as obstacles, the last three times that Quail Hollow has hosted this tournament, it has ranked as one of the top-eight most difficult events on the PGA Tour for the season. The putting surface consists of Bermudagrass with overseeing Poa annua grass. |
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05-04-23 | Rickie Fowler v. Tyrrell Hatton +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 0 h 27 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7538 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 33.4 yards. The rough is thick up to 2 1/2 inches of ryegrass. With lakes and trees serving as obstacles, the last three times that Quail Hollow has hosted this tournament, it has ranked as one of the top-eight most difficult events on the PGA Tour for the season. The putting surface consists of Bermudagrass with overseeing Poa annua grass. Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Tyrrell Hatton who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Hatton has registered three top-six finishes in his last eight tournaments on the PGA Tour headlined by a second-place finish at THE Players Championship in March. His elite ball-striking skills make him a threat on any given week. Hatton ranks ninth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranks 12th in the Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 16th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He has played at Quail Hollow two other times — he missed the cut at the 2017 PGA Championship and settled for 42nd place at the Wells Fargo in 2018. While those are not great results, that has helped us get a better number with him this week. Hatton is linked with Rickie Fowler for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Fowler is enjoying one of his best seasons in years with a 17th-place or better finish in seven of his last eight events. He comes off a tie for 15th place at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago at Hilton Head. But Fowler seems to have a plateau as well since he has not finished better than 10th place in his last eight tournaments. Fowler has a long history at Quail Hollow although he missed the cut in his most recent visit in 2021. Of concern is his 192nd ranking in Approach from 200 yards or farther out for the 2022-23 season. Take Hatton (7028) versus Fowler (7027) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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04-27-23 | Aaron Rai v. Nicolaj Hojgaard -120 | 71-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
After the doubles event in New Orleans last week, the PGA Tour returns to individual stroke play this week with the PGA Mexico Open at the Greg Norman Signature Course in Vedanta Vallarta in Mexico. This is the second time this tournament is on the PGA Tour after Jon Rahm won the inaugural event last year. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 42.3% of the second shots were from at least 200 yards away which was +19.4% higher than the tour average — so this course plays long. While the fairways are wide, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The greens consist of Paspalum greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Nicolaj Hojgaard who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. The 22-year-old Dane has three professional victories worldwide but is looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour. His tied for 32nd place in the doubles event in New Orleans last week may look underwhelming at first glance — but he gained +7.6 strokes versus the field while his partner, Thorsjoan Olesen, lost -10.5 strokes versus the field. Hojgaard finished in second place at the Coralas Puntacana Championship in late March which featured Paspalum greens like the course this week. He led the field in Driving Distance and was tied for first in Greens-In-Regulation that week. Hojgaard leads the field this week in Driving Distance which should give him an edge this week. He is also a fine ball-striker — he gained +5.6 strokes in Approach the Green when finishing in 28th at the PGA Valero Open in early April. He has four top 13 finishes in his last seven events worldwide with two top-fives in his last four events worldwide. This is a star in the making — and he may have the talent and gravitas to take on Rahm this week. Hojgaard is linked with Aaron Rai in Round One head-to-head props. Rai was the first-round leader at this tournament last year — and he was the first-round leader at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. Frankly, I find Round One results to be pretty muddy from week to week. Rai settled for 24th place at this tournament last year — and he fell to a tie for 48th place at the RBC Heritage. Rai comes off a tie for 13th place at the team event in New Orleans last week. His best showing in 2023 was a tie for 19th place at THE Players Championship — but that was also his best result in individual play in his last 11 tournaments. He is not a big driver — he ranks 154th on the tour in Driving Distance. He ranks 64th on the tour in Approach the Green — and he is 62nd on the tour in Approaches from 200 or more yards from the green. He ranks 126th in Par 5 Scoring this season which is a bad sign this week since nine of the top 20 finishers in Par 5 Scoring then finished in the top 15 overall last year. Rai also ranks 86th in Bogey Avoidance this season — and that may be a problem when considering that the top 32 finishers at this tournament last year combined for only nine rounds over par. Take Hojgaard (7148) versus Rai (7147) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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04-27-23 | Patton Kizzire v. Ben Martin -125 | 70-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
After the doubles team event in New Orleans last week, the PGA Tour returns to individual stroke play this week with the PGA Mexico Open at the Greg Norman Signature Course in Vedanta Vallarta in Mexico. This is the second time this tournament is on the PGA Tour after Jon Rahm won the inaugural event last year. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 42.3% of the second shots were from at least 200 yards away which was +19.4% higher than the tour average — so this course plays long. While the fairways are wide, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The greens consist of Paspalum greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Ben Martin who is listed at +6000 odds at DraftKings. Martin missed the cut last week at the team event in New Orleans — but he has made seven straight cuts on the PGA Tour in individual play. He has four top-15 finishes in his last seven tournaments including a tie for eighth place at the Corales Puntana Championship which featured Paspalum greens like at this course. Martin’s ball-striking is in great form right now — he has gained +1.0 strokes versus the field in his last 36 rounds. Martin ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks fifth in the field this week in Opportunities Gained on approaches within 12 feet. He played but missed the cut at this tournament last year — but he is in much better form now and should benefit from that course experience. Martin is linked with Patton Kizzire in Round One head-to-head props. Kizzire missed the cut in five straight events earlier in the season — but he has now made five straight cuts after a tie for 26th place at the team event in New Orleans. But Kizzire is not an elite ball striker. He ranks 150th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 141st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Kizzire also ranks 151st on the tour in Bogey Avoidance — and — and that may be a problem when considering that the top 32 finishers at this tournament last year combined for only nine rounds over par. Kizzire did not play at this tournament last year which gives Martin an additional edge. Take Martin (7144) versus Rai (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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04-27-23 | Tony Finau v. Wyndham Clark +1.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
After the doubles event in New Orleans last week, the PGA Tour returns to individual stroke play this week with the PGA Mexico Open at the Greg Norman Signature Course in Vedanta Vallarta in Mexico. This is the second time this tournament is on the PGA Tour after Jon Rahm won the inaugural event last year. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 42.3% of the second shots were from at least 200 yards away which was +19.4% higher than the tour average — so this course plays long. While the fairways are wide, the professionals will have to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The greens consist of Paspalum greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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04-13-23 | Cameron Young v. Sungjae Im +0.5 | 71-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7121 yards with just three Par 5 holes. The average round last year at this tournament was 70.739. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 147 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. The greens consist of overseeded Bermudagrass that will only measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Last year, only 58% of the greens were hit in regulation. This is the eighth designated event on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened total purse of $20 million — and this is why there is a stacked field this week. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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04-13-23 | Patrick Cantlay -155 v. Xander Schauffele | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7121 yards with just three Par 5 holes. The average round last year at this tournament was 70.739. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 147 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. The greens consist of overseeded Bermudagrass that will only measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Last year, only 58% of the greens were hit in regulation. This is the eighth designated event on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened total purse of $20 million — and this is why there is a stacked field this week. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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04-13-23 | Xander Schauffele v. Shane Lowry +0.5 | 67-70 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7121 yards with just three Par 5 holes. The average round last year at this tournament was 70.739. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 147 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. The greens consist of overseeded Bermudagrass that will only measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. Last year, only 58% of the greens were hit in regulation. This is the eighth designated event on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened total purse of $20 million — and this is why there is a stacked field this week. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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04-06-23 | Joaquin Niemann v. Justin Rose -130 | 71-69 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with The Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7545 yards. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.951. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet and play ultra-fast measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The tournament features 88 professionals including 18 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players will make the weekend cut. Rain is expected on the weekend which will amp up the winds while the temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-50s. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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04-06-23 | Rory McIlroy v. Jon Rahm +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with The Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7545 yards. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.951. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet and play ultra-fast measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The tournament features 88 professionals including 18 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players will make the weekend cut. Rain is expected on the weekend which will amp up the winds while the temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-50s. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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04-06-23 | Cameron Young v. Sungjae Im +1.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with The Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7545 yards. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.951. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet and play ultra-fast measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The tournament features 88 professionals including 18 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players will make the weekend cut. Rain is expected on the weekend which will amp up the winds while the temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-50s. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week. |
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03-30-23 | Tyrrell Hatton v. Corey Conners +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 0 h 4 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week. |
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03-30-23 | Si Woo Kim -112 v. Rickie Fowler | 0-1 | Loss | -112 | 0 h 11 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week. |
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03-30-23 | Alexander Noren v. Cameron Davis +0.5 | 70-80 | Loss | -125 | 0 h 23 m | Show | |
The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week. |
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03-16-23 | Matthew Fitzpatrick v. Justin Rose +0.5 | 74-71 | Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7340 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 22 yards. The rough is as high as 3 3/4 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter. |
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03-16-23 | Tommy Fleetwood -120 v. Brian Harman | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 0 h 25 m | Show | |
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7340 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 22 yards. The rough be as high as 3 3/4 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter. |
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03-16-23 | Nick Taylor -120 v. Tyler Duncan | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 0 h 15 m | Show | |
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7340 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 22 yards. The rough can be as high as 3 3/4 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter. |
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