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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Conf Finals O/U Game of the Year is on G St/Dal Over at 9:00 ET. The Golden State Warriors have won NINE consecutive games in the Western Conference finals, after a 109-100 win over Dallas in Game 3. The Warriors haven't lost in the West finals since erasing a 3-2 deficit to Houston in 2018, when they won the last of their three titles in four years by beating Cleveland in the NBA Finals. Golden State swept Portland for a fifth consecutive trip to the Finals in 2019 before losing in six games to Toronto. The Warriors can make it an even 10 straight wins, eliminate Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks and return to the NBA Finals after three years away with a victory in Game 4 in Dallas on Tuesday night. Golden State looks to become the first team since Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls to make SIX trips to the NBA Finals over an eight-year. The Warriors small-ball lineup of Stephen Curry (27.1-5.1-5.9), Klay Thompson (19.5 & 4.6), Jordan Poole (18.9 & 4.4 APG), Andrew Wiggins (15.9 & 6.9) and Draymond Green (8.0-7.1-6.1) is one of the most feared in the NBA. Then there is Golden State big man Kevon Looney, who was inserted back into the starting lineup in Game 6 vs Memphis. He pulled down 22 rebounds in that series clinching win. He then made all five FG attempts in Game vs Dallas (10 points / 5 rebounds), before making 10 of 14 shots in scoring 21 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in Game 2. In Game 3, he had 9 points and 12 rebounds. Doncic is averaging 32.1-9.5-6.2 this postseason, while Brunson has increased his scoring by almost a 'TD' more in the postseason (22.7 PPG) than he averaged in the regular season (16.3). Doncic has scored 42 and 40 points in the last two games, but he NEEDS more help than just Brunson. In Game 3, Dallas' three other starters combined for only NINE points (Dinwiddie did have 26 off the bench). Key three-point specialists Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber and Reggie Bullock combined for just nine points (all of them from Finney-Smith), as Kleber and Bullock missed all 12 of their threes and all 15 of their shots overall. NO team has overcome an 0-3 'hole' to win an NBA seven-game series and Dallas won't be the first to do so. After all, the Warriors have been great at winning series in the Kerr era, capturing 20 of 22, losing only to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2016 Finals and to the Toronto Raptors in the 2019 Finals. That said, I just don't see Dallas going quietly. The Mavs scored 117 points (had 72 at the half) in Game 2 but scored just 87 points in Game 1 and only 100 in Game 3. Expect Doncic and his 'helpers' to put together a solid offensive effort in Game 4. The problem? The Warriors had 82 FG attempts in Games 1 and 2 plus 81 in Game 3 (talk about consistency). The Warriors are shooting 53.1% for the series, averaging 115.7 PPG. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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04-23-22 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 213 | Top | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The 1st pick of my STP is a 9* on Phi/Tor Over at 2:00 ET. Toronto won 50-plus games over a five-year stretch prior to last season (won the NBA title in 2019), playing .693 basketball. However, the Raptors 'dropped like a rock' last season, finishing 27-45 (.375). The Raptors were a .500 team in late January, but an eight-game winning streak got them back in playoff position. The team was a modest 34-30 in early March but ended the season winning 14 of 18 and wound up with the East's No. 5 seed. Philadelphia battled at the top of the East all season but in the end, Miami (53-29) won the East, while Boston, Milwaukee and Philadelphia all finished 51-31. Due to tiebreakers, the 76ers wound up as the No. 4 seed and got Toronto in the first round.
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04-06-22 | Wizards v. Hawks UNDER 231.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Was/Atl Under at 8:10 ET. The 35-44 Washington Wizards and the 41-38 Atlanta Hawks get together at the State Farm Arena on Wednesday night in Atlanta. The Wizards are playing out the string but do enter having won FIVE of seven, including an impressive 132-114 win last night in Minnesota. Much was expected from the Hawks after they made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals last season, However, Atlanta was just 17-25 through Jan 15, before a seven-game winning streak put them back in 'play-in' position (have hovered around .500 since that winning streak). The Hawks enter tonight's game having won 17 of their last 23, but saw their five-game winning streak end 118-108 last night in a loss at Toronto. Atlanta is tied with the Nets, with both teams trailing the Cavs (No. 7 seed) by 1 1/2-games (note: Brooklyn owns the tie-breaker over Atlanta). The current Wizards look nothing like the team did at the midpoint of the season, when guards Beal and Dinwiddie were joined by a trio of former Lakers (Caldwell-Pope, Harrell and Kuzma) plus undersized center Gafford as the team's "Core 6." Beal's season ended after playing just 40 games, Dinwiddie and Harrell have both been traded, while Kuzma is currently out of commission with right knee tendinitis. In last night's win at Minnesota, Porzingis led the team with 25 points, Gafford added 24 points with 12 rebounds off the bench, Rui Hachimura added 21 points while Deni Avdija chipped in with 17 points, eight rebounds and five assists off the bench. The Wizards shot 55 percent from the floor, including 13 of 30 from the three-point line. PG Young (28.2 & 9.67APG) continues to shine for Atlanta but PF Collins (16.2 & 7.8) has played in just FOUR of the team's last 24 games. Five more Hawks contribute double digits, spanning from SG Bogdanovich (14.9 & 3.9) to center Capela (10.8 & 11.9). Young led the team with 26 points and 15 assists in last night's loss at Toronto, followed by Huerter's 21 points, Hunter's 20 points and Bogdanovic's 19 & 9 off the bench. I expect the Hawks to grab the win here, as earning the No. 8 seed would give the team a much better chance to reach the playoffs through the play-in round. Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back and at this stage of the season, fatigue is a factor. After an offensive "outburst" by Washington last night (132 points on 55% shooting), expect the Wizards to play closer to their season form (108,9 PPG). Go UNDER! Good luck...Larry |
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04-03-22 | 76ers v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Game of the Day is on Phi/Cle Under at 6:10 ET. The last thing the Philadelphia 76ers needed was a three-game losing streak to end March but that's exactly what happened the 27th thru the 31st. Philly did rebound in a big way with a 30-point 144-114 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday. Philly is back in action again on Sunday, taking a 47-30 record into a game with the Cavs in Cleveland. The 76ers are currently the East's No. 4 seed (last to get home court in the 1st round), two games clear of Toronto (No. 5 seed). Looking up, the 76ers are just a half-game behind the Celtics (No. 3 seed) and one game behind the Bucks (No. 2 seed). The Cleveland Cavaliers entered this season having gone 60-159 (.274) the previous three seasons but through Feb 11, were one of the league's biggest surprises with a 35-21 record. However, the Cavs have won just EIGHT of their last 22 games and at 43-35, have dropped out the top-six. They are now the No. 7 seed and TWO games behind the Bulls (No. 6 seed) with only four games left to play. The 76ers still have a decent chance to move up at the top of the East standings and while the Cavs will likely be stuck in the 'play-in' round, I do expect them to give it their best shot here. The Cavaliers will be shorthanded again on Sunday without center Jarrett Allen (finger) and PF Evan Mobley (ankle). "I think we're learning from our past," head coach Bickerstaff said after last night's 119-101 win at the Knicks. "I don't think we played particularly well in Atlanta. I didn't like the way that we played in Atlanta (a loss on Thursday). What this afternoon showed is that we can take steps and learn quickly. Before the game today in our meeting we watched clips of us at our best offensively and it wasn't a lot of ball holding." Both teams are playing the second of back-to-back games and both are coming off big offensive efforts. Philly, in particular, set season highs in points (144), three-pointers made (21) and assists (38). However, take note that these are two excellent defensive teams, as Cleveland has allowed 105.1 PPG (4th) and Philadelphia 106.8 PPG (8th). This O/U is too high. Go UNDER! Good luck...Larry |
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03-28-22 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 213 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Division (Atlantic) O/U Game of the Year is on Bos/Tor Under at 7:40 ET. The Boston Celtics visit the Toronto Raptors on Monday night in a key Eastern Conference contest. The Celtics entered last season having made the playoffs in 12 of the previous 13 seasons. Boston made the postseason again last year but after reaching the conference finals in THREE of the previous four seasons, Boston lost 4-1 in the first round to Brooklyn. Boston seemed like a non-factor this season at 25-25 through Jan 26 but the team has won 22 of its last 25! Look at the standings right now. Boston is tied with Miami (47-28) for the East's No. 1 seed. However, Milwaukee and Philadelphia lurk just one-half game behind. Toronto won 50-plus games over a five-year stretch prior to last season (won the NBA title in 2019), playing .693 basketball. However, the Raptors 'dropped like a rock' last season, finishing 27-45 (.375). Toronto is currently 42-32, giving them the East's No. 6 seed (final guaranteed playoff spot). Toronto is just ONE game behind the No. 5 seed (Chicago) but also just ONE game ahead of the No. 7 seed (Cleveland). It wasn't long ago that there were all sorts of rumors that Tatum and Brown were NOT getting along AND that they "not playing well with others' That chatter is 'Gone with the Wind,' as Tatum is averaging 27.1- 8.1-4.3 and Brown 23.4 & 6.1. Tatum scored 34 points and Brown had 31 points in Sunday's 134-112 home victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves. "I think the main thing that we've seen is consistency over the last few months," head coach Ime Udoka said. "A lot of areas that we've really targeted offensively -- sharing the ball, defensively coming out with that mindset. And then playing with a sense of urgency, getting off to better starts, and so consistency is what we've done. There's no reason to go back on that. We see the success it's brought us, and the unselfishness is contagious." The Raptors moved past the Cavaliers by one game in the Eastern Conference with their 131-91 home victory over the Indiana Pacers on Saturday. Pascal Siakam scored 23 points for the Raptors, while OG Anunoby (17.4 & 5.4) scored 16 points in his second game back after he was out for 15 with a broken finger. Three more Raptors are averaging more than 15 points. PG VanVleet (20.6-4.6-6.7), SG Trent (18.0) and rookie forward Barnes (15.4 & 5.4). The Celtics will be out to clinch the season series with the Raptors, after winning two of the first three games between the teams. Notable about those three contests is the fact that the final scores have averaged 198.7 points. Both teams are coming off HUGE offensive efforts, as Boston scored 134 points and Toronto 131 points in their most recent games. Lots on the line for each team in this game and in EVERY game through April 10. What's more, the Celtics could be short-handed for the game. Robert Williams left the game Sunday in the third quarter with a left knee sprain and did not return. Al Horford did not play Sunday for personal reasons. Brown and Tatum have been dealing with sore knees. For Toronto, Trent has sat out the last three contests with a left big toe hyperextension, Go UNDER! Good luck...Larry |
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03-25-22 | Iowa State v. Miami-FL OVER 132.5 | Top | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Sweet 16 Total of the Year is on Iowa St/Miami OVER at 9:59 ET. Four double-digit seeds made it to the Sweet 16 this year. Michigan (No. 11) lost last night to Villanova and it's hard to see St Peter's (No. 15) beating 29-7 Purdue (No. 3) tonight. However, we KNOW that at least one double-digit team will advance to the Elite 8 because the 10th-seeded Miami Hurricanes (25-10) and the 11th-seeded Iowa State Cyclones (22-12) meet Friday night in the Midwest regional semifinal at Chicago's United Center. Who'da thunk it! Miami came into the season off an 'ugly 10-17 year (4-15 in the ACC), while Iowa St was 2-22 (0-18 in the Big 12) during the 2020-21 season! Miami coughed up a late lead in its first-round game against seventh-seeded USC before winning 68-66 and then two days later, the Hurricanes trounced No. 2 seed Auburn 79-61. Iowa State began with a tournament-opening upset of No. 6 seed LSU (59-54) and then essentially had a road assignment Sunday in facing Wisconsin in Milwaukee. However, the Cyclones emerged with another impressive win, beating the third-seeded Badgers 54-49. Jim Larranaga entered this season having led the Hurricanes to six, 20-win seasons in his 10 years, to all three of the school's 25-win seasons and to two of the school's three Sweet 16 appearances. By the way, I could also throw in him leading unheralded George Mason to a Final 4 appearance back in 2006. The 'Canes were awful last season (see above) but this year's team contended for the ACC title during the regular season, before losing in the ACC semifinals to top-seeded Duke. Miami is led by the guard trio of McGusty (17.5 & 4.9), Wong (15.5 & 4.3) and Moore (12.8 & 4.6 APG). Miller is a fourth guard and adds 10.1 & 6.0. Miami's lone big man of note is the 6-10 Waardenburg (8.4 & 4.2), although the 6-9 Walker contributes 5.11 & 2.4 in just 14 MPG. T.J. Otzelberger came from UNLV to take over at Iowa St and the Cyclones opened 12-0 and were ranked No. 8 thru Dec 21. The team couldn't keep up that pace but then came the two back-to-back tourney wins. A trio of guards lead the way for Iowa St, starting with standout Izaiah Brockington, who leads the team in scoring (17.21 and rebounding (6.8). He's joined on the perimeter by PG Hunter (10.9 & 4.9 APG) and Kalscheur (9.5). The team's frontcourt rotation is led by the 6-8 Kunc (6.1 & 3.9) and the 6-9 Conditt (4.9 & 3.5). Guard Grill (6.5) is the first player off the bench and each one of the just mentioned players have participated in all of Iowa St's 34 games this season. With Iowa St winning its first two games by scores of 59-54 and 54-49, it would be easy to say, "go under!" However, as Lee Corso loves to say, "Not so Fast!" Miami just scored 79 points in beating Auburn (despite making only 3 of 15 on threes) by using their quickness and experience. Both teams own excellent (and deep) backcourts and I expect BOTH teams to surpass 70 points in tonight's contest. This one is Goin' over! Good luck...Larry |
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03-21-22 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 215 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Mia/Phil Over at 7:40 ET. The top of the Eastern Conference has been tightly contested all season and Monday night the 47-24 Miami Heat will be searching for their third consecutive victory when they visit the 43-27 Philadelphia 76ers. Miami is three games up on Milwaukee, plus 3 1/2-games ahead of the 76ers and Celtics. The Heat defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 120-108 on Friday, giving them THREE straight wins. More notably, the Heat have won 15 of 19 to take over as the East's current No. 1 seed. The 76ers lost 93-88 at home last night to the Raptors (after giving up an early 16-point advantage) and could really use a "W' in this one.
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03-18-22 | Lakers v. Raptors OVER 224.5 | Top | 128-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on LAL/Tor Over at 7:40 ET. The Toronto Raptors return home after winning all five games on their current road trip. The Raptors' recent surge has moved them to 39-30 and into a tie with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the East's No. 6 seed. Toronto will try to extend its winning streak in a quick rematch with the Los Angeles Lakers from last Friday night. Toronto won 114-103 in a wire-to-wire victory over the stumbling Lakers. LA is 29-40 (No. 9 seed in the West), just ONE game better than the Pelicans (No. 10 seed) and only 1 1/2-games clear of missing out on the 'play-in' round completely.
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03-11-22 | Wolves v. Magic OVER 232.5 | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Min/Orl Over at 7:10 ET. The Minnesota Timberwolves were just 24-25 in Late January but since Jan 30, have won 14 of 19 games to reach 38-29. That gives them the West's No. 7 seed, just two games behind Denver (No. 6 seed) and 2 1/2-games back of Dallas (No. 5 seed). Minnesota is looking to earn a playoff berth for just the SECOND time since 2004! As for Orlando, its playoff hopes ended early (2-8 start) and after 30 games, the Magic were just 5-25. Orlando had some excellent teams from the mid-90s through the first decade of the 21st century but those are now just distant memories. At 17-50, the Magic were 'battling' the 17-49 Rockets for the right to be 'crowned' the NBA's worst team. The T-wolves are led by the trio of Towns (24.5 & 9.7), Edwards (21.3 & 4.6) and Russell (19.0 & 7.1). Malik Beasley (12.1) is the team's fourth double-digit scorer but note that SIX more players chip in between 6.5 & 9.3 PPG. Speaking of Beasley, Minnesota's 132-102 Wednesday victory over the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder featured a historic three-point performance by Beasley. He attempted all 17 of his field goals from beyond the arc, making a career-high 11 that set an NBA record for most points (33) scored via three-point shots only. Despite Orlando's putrid record, the Magic do feature SEVEN players averaging in double figures. PG Anthony (17.3-5.1-5.7) leads the way, followed by six more chipping in between 10.2 and 15.5 PPG. That group includes Orlando's first round pick of the 2021 Draft (Suggs at 12.3-3.7-4.4) plus centers Carter (14.4 & 10.4) and Bamba (10.2 & 7.9). |
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03-07-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 223.5 | Top | 124-131 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference O/U of the Month is on G St/Den Under at 9:10 ET. The Golden State Warriors opened 18-2 but cooled some, before winning NINE straight from Jan 21 thru Feb 7. Golden St was 41-13 on the morning of Feb 8 and the Suns were 40-13. However, the Warriors lost FOUR of five prior to the break and then returned to play with a win over the depleted Blazers However, they have lost FOUR in a row since. Doing the math and it's EIGHT losses in 10 games, as the Warriors have fallen EIGHT games behind Phoenix. The Warriors are tied with Memphis for the No. 2 seed and now the Jazz are within 2 1/2-games of Golden St and Memphis. The Nuggets outlasted New Orleans Sunday in OT, as Jokic had 30 of his 46 points after the third quarter and finished with 12 rebounds and 11 assists to notch his 17th triple-double of the season. Denver is 38-26 (No. 6 seed) and just ONE game behind Dallas (No. 5 seed) plus 2 1/2-games behind Utah (No. 4 seed). Denver's won the first two meetings this season against Golden St but that point seems moot. Why? Read along. Golden State has already announced that Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Andre Iguodala and Gary Payton Jr. won't play in Monday's game. Curry, Thompson and Wiggins will sit for rest while Iguodala (back) and Payton (knee) are nursing injuries. Obviously, that makes the Warriors severely short-handed BUT they do catch a scheduling break. The Nuggets are coming off an overtime win against New Orleans on Sunday night, host Golden St tonight and then travel to Sacramento for a game Wednesday night. That means Golden State catches them on the second night of back-to-back games. One more thing. Jokic (25.8-13.8-8.0) was rested Friday and there was talk he might not play Sunday. Is it possible the Nuggets will rest him here, off last night's Herculean effort in OT? Go U-N-D-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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02-26-22 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | Top | 129-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Month is on SA/Mia Under at 8:10 ET. Prior to last year, San Antonio had never missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons. Now, three straight is a very real possibility, as the Spurs are just 24-36. That leaves them 11th in the West, one game behind the No. 10 seed (last of the play-in' teams). The Spurs won 157-153 in double-overtime at home last night over the Washington Wizards and then caught a late-night flight into Miami for tonight's game vs the Heat. Miami lost in the 2020 NBA Finals to the Lakers, but last season fell to 40-32 and got eliminated 4-0 in the first round of the playoffs by the Bucks. However, Miami is currently 39-21, tying them with Chicago for the East's No. 1 seed.
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02-17-22 | Rockets v. Clippers UNDER 228.5 | Top | 111-142 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conf O/U Game of the Month is on Hou/LAC Under at 10:40 ET. The Houston Rockets and the LA Clippers meet tonight in LA, as the NBA's All-Star break is set to begin on Friday (teams don't return to play until next Thursday). Both teams are coming off contests against the NBA-best Phoenix Suns (48-10 ), as the Clippers are coming off a 103-96 road defeat to the Suns on Tuesday, while the Rockets gamely battled the Suns on Wednesday in an eventual 124-121 defeat. Houston had a slim lead with 1:56 to play before the Suns pulled ahead. The Rockets own the West's worst record at 15-42, while the Clippers are 29-31, leaving them as the West's No. 8 seed. LA is just three games behind the Nuggets (No. 6 seed, the last of the guaranteed playoff spots) but are also FIVE games clear of the No. 11 seed (New Orleans. The Rockets played inspired basketball against Phoenix, out rebounding them 49-42, while taking 97 shots to 86 for the Suns. All that without Christian Wood (17.6 & 10.2) and Kevin Porter (13.7 & 6.2 APG). who were late scratches due to a stomach bug. Dennis Schroder scored 17 of his 23 points in the second half of his second game and first start with the Rockets. He added nine assists and six rebounds but had six turnovers. Jae'Sean Tate (12.5 & 5.6) scored 22 for the Rockets with 10 rebounds, while Eric Gordon (14.3) had 10 of his 20 in the fourth quarter. Houston's Alperen Sengun (8.8 & 4.8) tied his career hi14.3gh with 19 points and set a career high with 14 rebounds in his fifth career start. The Clippers have been without Kawhi Leonard (knee) all season and without Paul George (elbow) since December. The most recent injury was to new arrival Norman Powell (18.7 PPG in 40 games for Portland) who is out indefinitely with a broken bone in his left foot. Powell and Robert Covington (7.6 & 5.7 in 48 games for Portland) were picked up before the trade deadline to give the Clippers more firepower down the stretch, but it remains unclear when Powell will return. That said, the Clippers still gave the Suns a game Tuesday as Marcus Morris (15.9 & 4.8) scored 23 points and Nicolas Batum (9.0 & 4.5) added 18. The Clippers forced 16 Suns turnovers, but Phoenix shot 48.9 percent from the floor to 41.2 percent for Los Angeles. I'm assuming BOTH teams are looking forward to the break and with SO many missing and questionable players, I see this game as a 'dead' Under. That's the play! Good luck...Larry |
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02-16-22 | Raptors v. Wolves UNDER 230 | Top | 103-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Tor/Min Under at 8:10 ET. The Toronto Raptors have followed an eight-game winning streak with back-to-back losses, and they will try to rebound Wednesday night when they oppose the Minnesota Timberwolves in Minneapolis. Toronto fell all the way to 27-45 last season but that eight-game winning streak has them 'knocking on the door' for a guaranteed playoff spot in the East. The Raptors are currently just 1 1/2-games behind the red-hot Celtics, who have taken over the No. 6 seed. However, it should also be noted that in the East, Toronto is still within FIVE games of the No. 1 seed (Miami, which is 37-21).
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02-06-22 | Bucks v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 137-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* Late Show O/U is on Mil/LAC Under at 9:10 ET. The LA Clippers acquired guard Norman Powell (18.7 PPG and 40.7% on threes) and forward Robert Covington (7.6 & 5.7) from the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday, and both are in line to make their debuts with the team. The move cost Los Angeles veteran guard Eric Bledsoe and forward Justise Winslow, among other pieces, but a scorer like Powell is what the Clippers were desperate to add. Los Angeles still doesn't know if stars Kawhi Leonard (knee) or Paul George (elbow) will return this season, but a mix-and-match roster has found some success. The Clippers have won four of their last six games and five of eight, as they welcome the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks to Staples Center.
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02-02-22 | Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 224.5 | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Game of the Week is on Den/Uah Under at 10:10 ET. The Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets enter their Wednesday matchup in Salt Lake City coming off losses to the same team, the Minnesota Timberwolves. In Denver's case, the Nuggets saw their five-game winning streak come to an end Tuesday in a 130-115 loss at Minneapolis. In comparison, not only did the Jazz fall 126-106 to the host Timberwolves on Sunday to extend their losing streak to five games (11th loss in last 13 games), but they also lost Joe Ingles (7.2) for the rest of the season due to a torn left anterior cruciate ligament. Utah's slump has dropped them to 30-21, 11 1/2-games behind the West's top team, Phoenix. In fact, the Jazz have fallen to the No. 4 seed, four games behind Memphis. Denver checks in at 28-22, placing them 6th (last guaranteed playoff spot) and just 1 1/2-games back of the Jazz.
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01-26-22 | Marquette v. Seton Hall OVER 146 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Conference O/U Game of the Year (Big East) is on Marquette/Seton Hall Over at 8:30 ET. Shaka Smart was booted out of Austin but has done quite a job at Marquette, which did not return a SINGLE starter from last season's disappointing 13-14 team. Few teams in college hoops are hotter than Marquette (14-6 / 6-3 Big East), which entered the AP poll for the first time this past Monday at No. 22 (more details to follow). The Golden Eagles' visit Newark, NJ to face a revenge-minded Seton Hall team on Wednesday night. The Pirates opened 9-1 and were ranked 15th, before losing FIVE of their last eight to fall to 12-6 (3-5 Big East) and out of the rankings. Marquette was 3-0 last week, beating Seton Hall, Villanova and Xavier (all were ranked at the time). Smart had a disappointing six-year run at Texas but despite a four-game losing streak this season, he has confidence that his team has learned from its earlier losses. "Losing four in a row... I think what you take out of that as a team is we can win, we can find a way to win those games, but we've got to be a little bit better in a variety of areas," Smart said. "And I think we've continued to get better." Marquette has a deep eight-man rotation, led by 6-7 freshman Lewis (15.8 & 7.9) and Maryland transfer, Morsell (13.9 & 3.5). Joining that duo in the starting lineup are freshman guard Kolek (6.4 & 4.0) plus frontcourt players like the 6-8 Prosper (5.8 & 3.4) and the 6-10 Kuath (5.4 & 4.5), Adding depth are guard Elliott (8.1), freshman guard Jones (7.7) and 6-9 freshman Ighodaro (6.3 & 3.7). Kevin Willard took over at Seton hall for the 2010-11 season and had led the Pirates to four straight NCAA tournaments before the 2020 tournament was canceled because of COVID (Seton Hall was 21-9). However, the Pirates were just 14-13 last year and lost to the 6-10 Mamukelashvili (17.5 & 7.6), who was co-player-of-the-year in the Big East. However, the Pirates have EIGHT players scoring between 6.5 and 15.7 PPG. 6-6 swingman Rhoden leads in scoring (15.7), while adding 6.9 RPG. Senior guards Aiken (14.5) and Cole (10.0 & 4.1) join Rhoden in double digits. The 6-8 Yetna just misses at 9.9 PPG but is the team's leading rebounder at 7.9 per game. Two 6-10 players, Samuel (8.5 & 6.3) and Jackson (7.2 & 3.9) plus guards Richmond (8.1-3.7-3.7) and Harris (6.5) complete Seton Hall's 'Great 8.' Marquette hosted Seton Hall back on Jan 15 in a back-and-forth affair, decided by a controversial late whistle. With the game tied at 72, Marquette's Greg Elliott leaned into the Pirates' Bryce Aiken while attempting a shot, elbowing Aiken in the nose. However, the officials called the foul on Aiken, and Elliott's free throw with one second left won the game for Marquette. Aiken scored 28 points that day but entered concussion protocol and hasn't played since. That said, as noted above, Seton Hall has the depth to 'cover' Aiken's absence. That Jan 15 game ended 73-72 but I expect a higher-scoring game here, one in which Seton Hall avenges that loss with an OUTSTANDING offensive effort. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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01-19-22 | Raptors v. Mavs OVER 206.5 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* East/West Total of the Year is on Tor/Dal Over at 8:40 ET. The No. 7 thru No. 10 seeds in both conferences enter the "Play-In" tourney to decide the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds. Toronto has won SEVEN of 10 and at 21-20, is the current No. 9 seed in the East. The Raptors are three games back of the No. 6 seed but just ONE game ahead of the No. 11 seed. Dallas has won NINE of 10 to reach 25-19, giving the No. 5 seed in the West, three games clear of the No. 7 seed. Toronto's top-three scorers have led the way. PG Fred VanVleet (21.9-4.8-6.7), PF Pascal Siakam (21.1-8.5-5.0) and SF Anunoby (19.2 & 5.o), who is having a career season). The Raptors also have two more significant scorers in Trent (16.4) and Florida rookie Barnes (14.5 & 7.9). Barnes is back after a knee injury but Trent remains out (??). Luka Doncic (24.6-8.6-8.8) had his fifth triple-double of the season with 20 points, 11 rebounds and 12 assists in the Mavs' most recent win, recording his 41st career triple-double. Kristaps Porzingis (20.3 & 7.9) added 13 points and eight rebounds on Monday. Porzingis and Doncic played together for the second consecutive game, the first time they have both been active for back-to-back games since Dec 8-10. PF Kleber (7.4 & 5.8) and guard Bullock (6.4) are out but the Mavs are pretty healthy right now. Guard Brunson (16.0 & 5.7 APG), swingman Hardaway (14.5) and SF Finney-Smith (10.5 & 4.8) all average in double digits. These teams met way back on oct 23, with Dallas winning 103-95. Do NOT expect a similar low-scoring contest here! Note that both Doncic and Porzingis have done well against Toronto. Doncic is averaging 24.2 points, 9.7 rebounds and 8.8 assists in six career appearances against the Raptors, including two triple-doubles. As for Porzingis, he has faced Toronto five times (since coming to Dallas) and averaged 20.2 points and 11.2 rebounds with four double-doubles. This O/U number is way too low. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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01-15-22 | Bulls v. Celtics UNDER 219.5 | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* East Conf O/U Game of the Month is on Chi/Bos Under at 8:40 ET. Both the Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics will attempt to get back in the win column when they meet Saturday night in Boston. Chicago was blown out at home 138-96 by the Golden State Warriors last night, while the Celtics fell 111-99 at home to Philadelphia. The Chicago Bulls were 31-41 last season, missing the postseason for the FOURTH consecutive year but have reinvented themselves as a threat in the Eastern Conference behind Zach LaVine and the free agent signing of DeMar DeRozan. They also picked up center Nikola Vucevic from Orlando last season (where his talents were wasted) plus added Lonzo Ball as a free agent. The Bulls sit atop the East with a 27-13 record but not only were they blown out last night by Golden St, they suffered the same fat Wednesday night at home, losing 138-112 to the Brooklyn Nets. Boston's first-year head coach Ime Udoka has seen his two superstars Tatum and Brown struggle at times to blend together and with the rest of the team, which partly explains Boston's 21-22 record. At the moment, Boston sits a half-game behind the East's No. 10 seed, the last of the seeds to make the "Play-In" round.
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01-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 226 | Top | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Late Show O/U play is on Mem/LAL Under at 9:40 ET. The Memphis Grizzlies lost 132-110 to the Hawks on Nov 26, giving them a 9-10 record. However, the Grizzlies have won18 of 2 since, as Memphis now owns a 27-14 record, good enough for the Western Conference's No. 4 seed. The Grizzlies will take an EIGHT-game winning streak into tonight's game with the Lakers, after a 123-108 win over the Clippers last night. The win came with head coach Taylor Jenkins on the sideline (COVID-19 protocol) and leading scorer Ja Morant (25.0-5.8-6.6) sitting out with soreness in his left thigh. The Grizzlies WON'T have to travel, as they are back in Staples Center again, to face the Lakers, whose four-game winning streak has them two games over .500 at 21-19. The Lakers are beginning to get healthy after being shorthanded most of the season and that's helped them produce their longest winning streak of the season. |
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01-07-22 | Kings v. Nuggets OVER 223.5 | Top | 111-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* West Conf O/U Game of the Month is on Sac/Den Over at 9:10 ET. The Kings and Nuggets meet tonight in Denver. The Kings are just 16-24, leaving them 11th in the West, a half-game out of sneaking into the NBA's "Play-In" round, which features the 7-10 seeds playing for the last two playoff spots. Injuries and COVID-19 absences have piled up for the Nuggets but Denver checks in at 18-18. That gives them the No. 7 seed but the team is just ONE game back of the West's No. 5 seed. The Kings won't have center Richaun Holmes (12.6 & 8.7) against Denver after he went into COVID-19 protocol on Saturday. Terence Davis (9.5) sat out Wednesday's game with an ankle injury, and Chimezie Metu (9.1 & 6.5) is also in the protocol and will be out for Friday's game. PG Fox (20.9 & 5.2 APG) has scored 30 points in each of the Kings' last two games and is joined by guards Hield (15.7) and Haliburton (13.6-4.0-6.8) to form a terrific perimeter trio. SF Barnes (16.5 & 6.1) continues his solid play plus Baylor rookie Mitchell (9.4) has become a regular contributor. PF/C Bagley (8.0 & 7.1) is back healthy and has pulled down 12 rebounds in each of the team's last two games. With Denver suffering injuries and COVID absences last year's MVP has taken on more and more responsibility. It would be hard for Nikola Jokic (25.7-14.2-7.0) to do more than he did Wednesday night, when he scored 26 points with 21 rebounds and 11 assists in a 115-109 loss to the Utah Jazz. "26, 21 and 11, and you lose," acting Nuggets coach Popeye Jones said after Wednesday's game. "You feel it for him. I think I've said it numerous times since I've been sitting here. Most superstars wouldn't take it. ... He's a special guy." Jokic has had to carry a bigger load with long-term injuries to Jamal Murray (knee) and Michael Porter Jr. (back). Neither is coming back soon, and things became tougher with Aaron Gordon (14.2 & 5.5 playing with a hamstring injury, while Jeff Green and Zeke Nnaji were placed on the health and safety protocol list. The Kings lost at home to Atlanta on Wednesday night despite Trae Young, John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic sitting out. Unfortunately, for those hoping the Kings will finally break their 15-year playoff drought, it's not the only time Sacramento has lost to a team that is missing stars. The Kings have dropped games against the Los Angeles Lakers without LeBron James and Anthony Davis and to Dallas when Luka Doncic was sidelined. Sacramento is the worst defensive team in the league but will also be able score here in Denver, so I see this game 'soaring' over the total. Good luck...Larry |
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01-05-22 | Hawks v. Kings UNDER 231 | Top | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Atl/Sac Under at 10:10 ET. Full, detailed analysis Wednesday by 12 noon ET. |
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12-26-21 | Pacers v. Bulls UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Ind/Chi Under at 8:10 ET. The Indiana Pacers missed the postseason with a 34-38 record last year, after playing in NINE of the previous 10. The Pacers opened 1-6 and will enter this Christmas Day game in Chicago at 14-19, two games out of the "Play In" cut line. The Bulls were 31-41 last season, missing the postseason for the FOURTH consecutive year. However, the Bulls have reinvented themselves as a threat in the Eastern Conference behind Zach LaVine and the free-agent signing of DeMar DeRozan. They also picked up center Nikola Vucevic from Orlando last season (where his talents were wasted) plus added Lonzo Ball as a free agent. Like many other teams in recent weeks, the Bulls have had severe COVID issues but still enter this contest 19-10, battling 22-13 Milwaukee for the Central Division lead. The Bulls currently hold down the No. 2 seed in the East. When healthy, the Pacers have a strong five-man rotation, as all players average in double digits. PG Brogdon (19.0-5.3-6.1) leads the way, followed by PF Sabonis (18.1-11.6-4.2). SG LeVert (16.7), center Turner (13.4 & 7.5) and 6-5 rookie Duarte (13.2 & 4.1) comprise that group. The issue for Indiana for tonight's game is the Pacers are hoping that PG Malcolm Brogdon (right achilles) and forward Domantas Sabonis (right calf) will be back in the lineup. Both are listed as day-to-day after missing Thursday's 118-106 win over the Houston Rockets. Center Myles Turner, who has 17 blocks over his past five games, contributed 32 points and 10 rebounds in 37 minutes against the Rockets. The Pacers also received a boost from Caris LeVert, who filled in for Brogdon at point guard and tallied 24 points and 11 assists. There were 'whispers' that the 32-year-old DeMar DeRozan was on the downside of his career but he's been one of the best players in the NBA so far this season, averaging 26.8-5.2-4.2. He has energized the Chicago Bulls, along with LaVine (26.0-5.3-4.2), Vucevic (15.5 & 10.4) and Ball (13.2-5.4-5.0). DeRozan missed three games due to the NBA's COVID protocols before scoring 38 points in last Sunday's 115-110 win over the Los Angeles Lakers. He then scored 26 in a 133-118 victory over the Houston Rockets on Monday. Cautious optimism has the Bulls hoping the worst of the team's COVID outbreak is behind them. In fact, Sunday's game will mark the first time Chicago has had center Nikola Vucevic, forward DeMar DeRozan and guard Zach LaVine available at the same time in more than THREE weeks. The Bulls will surely remember the Pacers beating them 109-77 in Chicago back on Nov 22, meaning Chicago has lost its last SIX home games against Indiana It's time for the Bulls to say Enough is ENOUGH! We won't know until tip-off just who will or won't play for the Pacers but it's my opinion that this O/U number seems to reflect an "all hands on deck" scenario, which by no means is a guarantee. I'm going U-N-D-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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12-15-21 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 219 | Top | 124-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
My NBA 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Min/Den Under at 9:10 ET. The Minnesota Timberwolves made Karl-Anthony Towns the No. 1 overall pick in 2015 and the LA Lakers made D'Angelo Russell the No. 2 pick of that same draft. Towns has been the 'centerpiece' (pardon the pun) of the T-wolves since joining the team but now Russell, who has had a nomadic career, is making a big impact with the T-wolves as Towns' teammate. Throw in swingman Anthony Edwards, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2020 Draft and the T-wolves own quite a trio. That said, Minnesota visits Pepsi Center to take on the Nuggets, with just a 12-15 record.
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12-13-21 | Kings v. Raptors OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Sac/Tor Over at 7:10 ET. The Sacramento Kings are trying to salvage one win from a three-game road trip. They lost 124-123 to the Charlotte Hornets on Friday, ending a three-game winning streak, and then lost 117-103 at Cleveland on Saturday. The Kings are in Toronto tonight to face the Raptors, who are hoping to complete their seven-game homestand with a winning record. The Raptors evened their record on the homestand to 3-3 with a 90-87 victory over the New York Knicks on Friday.
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12-06-21 | 76ers v. Hornets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 127-124 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
My NBA 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Phi/Cha Under at 7:10 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers are in Charlotte tonight to take on the Hornets. Philly (49-23) was the East's No. 1 seed last season but lost in the second round to the Hawks, As for the Hornets, they were 33-39 last year and were part of the NBA's "Play-In" round, but got crushed 144-117 at Indiana. However, as the teams meet Monday night, the Hornets are 14-11 and the 76ers 12-11, The 76ers should be well-rested, as while Philadelphia played three games in an eight-day period (2-1), the most recent-game for the 76ers was Friday night's 98-96 win in Atlanta. The best news for Philly fans is that the team is back healthy. Center Embiid (22.5 & 11.0) and PF Harris (19.2 & 8.2) have missed time becai-use of COVID protocols but that's behind them. Simmons has NOT been missed, as PG Maxey (17.2 & 4.9 APG) has played all 23 games plus Curry adds 16.3 PPG in the backcourt. Guards Milton (11.5) and Korkmaz (9.2) add depth on the perimeter, while the 6-7 Niang (11.3) and the 6-10 Drummond add 6.5 & 10.5 in about 21 minutes per game. Charlotte is led by the outstanding trio of Bridges (20.4 & 7.3), Ball (20.0-7.7-8.3) and Hayward (17.2-4.9-3.4). Plumlee (6.8 & 7.3) started the first 20 games but is currently sidelined (right calf strain), with PJ Washintgton (10.5 & 5.2) filling in the last two. Perimeter players Rozier (17.7) and Oubre (15.8) have also been regular and effective contributors. The Hornets go into Monday night's home game against the Philadelphia 76ers coming off an unlikely result. Down four players because of COVID protocols, the Hornets pulled out Sunday night's 130-127 road victory against the Atlanta Hawks. Charlotte won despite the absences of LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee and Jalen McDaniels. All except McDaniels are considered starters. These teams meet again Wednesday night (also in Charlotte)but let; stay "in the moment." Charlotte is the highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 115.5 PPG but with the 76ers running the majority of their offense through their big man, I expect a much more methodically-paced affair than what this Over/Under line is suggesting. Play the U-N-D-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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12-02-21 | Pistons v. Suns OVER 209 | Top | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Det/Pho Over at 9:10 ET. |
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11-27-21 | Suns v. Nets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout O/U is on Pho/Brk Under at 7:40 ET. When the Phoenix Suns ended a 10-year postseason drought last year, finishing just ONE game behind the Utah Jazz for the NBA's best regular season record. The Suns made it all the way to The Finals but after taking a 2-0 lead over the Bucks, lost FOUR in a row. Based on 'early returns,' the Suns REALLY mean business this season. 16-3 Phoenix takes the court tonight at Barclay Center and will put its 15-game winning streak on the line (the longest since a team-record 17-game run in 2006-07) to take on the 14-5 Brooklyn Nets. The Nets opened 2-3 but have won 12 of 14 since. Brooklyn suffered an 18-point loss to Golden State on Nov 16 but enters this contest on a four-game winning streak. |
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Cha/Was Over at 7:10 ET. The Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards have each produced a five-game winning streak this month as the 10-8 Hornets travel to D.C. to take on the 11-5 Wizards. Charlotte lost five straight from Nov 1-8 but then won FIVE in row, before seeing its streak end with a 115-105 loss Saturday night in Atlanta. Washington won FIVE in a row from Nov 5-15 and welcomes the Hornets to the Verizon Center where the Wizards own a 7-1 record, including the last four. Charlotte is led by the outstanding trio of Bridges (21.6-7.6-3.4), Ball (19.3-7.8-7.7) and Hayward (17.7-5.1-3.5). Plumlee (6.7 & 7.4) has started all 16 games at center plus perimeter players Rozier (14.7) and Oubre (13.7 & 4.2) have been regular contributors. Beal (23.7-5.2-5.9) and Dinwiddie (15.7-5.0-5.6) make for an excellent backcourt duo, joined by a trio of players I've dubbed, "Lakers East!" PF Harrell (17.1 & 8.4), SF Kuzma (13.6 & 9.6) and guard Caldwell-Pope (9.6) are very happy on the East Coast. Charlotte has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six, but I think that the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned here for the Hornets. One of those "unders" included a low-scoring 97-87 win at home over these very Wizards on November 17th. The Hornets have struggled defensively, conceding 118 PPG over the last two weeks plus Charlotte ranks second in the NBA in scoring (112.3 PPG). This is a difficult stretch for the Hornets, who began a road stretch Saturday and will be playing their THIRD game in four nights. I think that will make them even more vulnerable defensively and therefore I'm Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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11-19-21 | Lakers v. Celtics OVER 213.5 | Top | 108-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* O/U of the Week is on LA/Bos Over at 7:40 ET.
There is talk that the Lakers are about to get their 'King' back, as LBJ (24.8-5.5-7.0) could be set to return from an abdominal injury when the Lakers visit the Celtics on Friday night. The NBA's two most successful franchises renew their storied rivalry on the parquet tonight in Boston with the Lakers coming 8-8 and the Celtics at 7-8. LBJ has missed his team's last eight games (3-5), including a 109-102 loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday, but was listed as questionable for Friday's contest. "I hope, I hope," James told ESPN after Wednesday's game when asked if he would play Boston. The Lakers were not able to stop Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo, who scored a season-high 47 points for the Bucks. LA's Anthony Davis (23.8 & 10.8), Russell Westbrook (19.4-8.4-8.8) and Carmelo Anthony (15.2 & 4.1) combined to only equal Antetokounmpo's point total. Some VERY good news for LA has been that Talen Horton-Tucker led the Lakers in scoring for a second straight game with 25 points. The 6-4 shooting guard played for the first time this season on Nov 14 and has averaged 23.3 PPG in his three games. The Celtics remain without Brown (hamstring), who has averaged 25.6 & 6.1). Big man Robeet Willimas (10.0 & 9.2) is listed as questionable with a knee issue. Tatum (24.2 & 8.5) needs to pick up the slack with Brown out and has gotten some excellent support from PG Schroder (17.0-3.8-5.1). The return of Horford (13.1 & 8.7) has been a blessing but the Celtcs are still one game under .500 for the season, including 2-3 at home. That said, a game with the hated-Lakers should (will) bring out the best in Boston. "That game is special," Tatum said of Friday's game against Los Angeles. "Everyone knows the history between the two franchises, and I've been fortunate enough to be a part of that going on five years now." Chemistry is the main issue with LA right now, especially with LeBron James having been sidelined for nearly a month now with injury. The Lakers have struggled defensively all season, allowing 112.3 PPG. However, LA has averaged 109.3 points per game, which ranks ninth overall. The Celtics' defense has struggled this season, as they're allowing opposing teams to shoot a whopping 48 percent from the floor in their own building (that's dead last in the league!). I am expecting a faster-paced game tonight and for the total to go over. Good luck...Larry. |
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11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner (O/U) is on Mia/LAC under at 10:40 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers began the season knowing Kawhi would miss most if not all of it. The Clipps started slowly but will take a five-game winning streak into a home contest against the Miami Heat on Thursday. The Heat will enter off a 120-117 overtime defeat to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday, which followed a 113-96 loss in Denver on Monday. Wednesday's loss was the THIRD in four games for the Heat but more notably, they lost star Jimmy Butler (23.6-5.5-5.1) after 12 minutes because of a sprained right ankle. His status for Thursday's game remains in the air. Bam Adebayo (19.3 & 11.6) scored 28 points and Tyler Herro (20.9-5.3-3.9) had 27, but the Heat missed five free throws and two 3-point attempts by Herro in the final 50.9 seconds of overtime. Miami led 106-97 with 4:45 remaining in regulation before the Lakers rallied to tie it. The Clippers made it FIVE straight wins with a 117-109 victory at home over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. Paul George (26.7-8.3-5.4) had 24 points and got 23 from Reggie Jackson (17.6-3.5-4.5), while Nicolas Batum (12.1 & 6.3) was right behind the leading scorers, hitting six 3-pointers while scoring 22 points. The Clippers seem to have found their 'mojo.' The team-wide approach has shown on both offense (balanced scoring) and also on defense, leading to four consecutive victories by at least an eight-point margin. Both teams have been known as strong defensive ones. Miami enters allowing 103.2 PPG (6th) and Los Angeles 103.2 PPG (7th). This is a great situational play. Not only is Miami dealing with some off-court issues (COVID related), but it's also off an exhausting (and disappointing) 120-117 overtime loss at the Lakers just last night.The last thing that LA will want to do here is to play at a fast pace, as that plays right into the Heat's strength on the offensive end. The Heat will almost assuredly double-down on the defensive end as well. This one sets up as well from a number of different ways to be much more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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11-07-21 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 210 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on SA/OKC Over at 7:10 ET. The San Antonio Spurs visit OKC off a 102-89 win Friday in Orlando, marking the second time this season the Spurs have defeated the Magic. San Antonio is 3-6 on the season and the Thunder check in at 2-6. OKC is also coming off a win, 107-104 over the Lakers in Los Angeles on Thursday. Oklahoma City wrapped up a three-game California road trip 1-2 after a blowout loss in San Francisco to the Warriors and a close loss in L.A. to the Clippers. The Spurs started the same five players in each of their first four games but McDermott (9.7) missed all three games of a road trip with a balky right knee, before returning in the last two. Walker (11.2) started in his place, joining Murray (18.4-8.1-8.5), Johnson (15.6 & 5.8), Poeltl (13.9 & 9.7) and White (13.7 & 5.7 APG). However, Poeltl will miss here, as he has entered the NBA's health and safety protocols and is expected to miss several games, PG Gilgeous-Alexander (23.5-4.9-3.9) leads OKC, joined by three others who have started all eight games. However, none are household names in SF Dort (12.4 & 3.6), PF Bazley (11.1 & 6.3) and SG Gidley (10.5-6.0-6.1). The Thunder are rebuilding after losing the entire core of players that led them into the NBA Finals Against the Cavaliers back in 2012. The Thunder are off a big 107-104 road win at the Lakers and they'll be eager to make it two in a row here. That game was played Thursday, so OKC has had time to 'come down from that high' and is well rested. This year's version of the Spurs is running a free-flowing offense (108.9 PPG ranks 13th) and defense is no longer a priority (107.9 PPG ranks 16th). Yes, the Spurs clamped down on Orlando but I expect both of these teams to be in the 110s in this one. Go Over! Good luck...Larry |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 208.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference O/U Game of the Month is on Phi/Det Over at 7:10 ET. The Detroit Pistons have opened 1-6 and it's not difficult to figure out why. Detroit ranks dead-last in scoring (95.1 PPG), FG percentage (39.4%) and three-point percentage (26.7%). A difficult early schedule hasn't helped the cause and it won't get any easier in the short run, as the Pistons host Philadelphia on Thursday and Brooklyn on Friday. The Sixers have a different set of issues as they visit Detrouit but come to Motown 6-2, which includes a 110-102 victory over Detroit in Philadelphia last Thursday. Joel Embiid (20.6-8.7-4.3) had 18 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in his return to the lineup on Wednesday plus Seth Curry (17.1) scored 22 points and hit a crucial jumper late to lead the Philadelphia 76ers over the Chicago Bulls 103-98. Georges Niang (11.6 PPG coming off the bench in all eight games) added 18 points for the short-handed 76ers. All are aware of the Ben Simmons situation (personal reasons), who has missed all eight games, but Philadelphia was without starters Tobias Harris (health and safety protocols) and Danny Green (hamstring). The loss of Green is not a big deal but Harris was averaging 19.8-9.0-4.2. Maxey has started all eight games (alongside Curry) and is averaging 14.0 & 4.3 APG. Milton, who missed the first four games (averaged 13.0 PPG last season), has played the last four, averaging 10.3 PPG. Detroit has just three players scoring in double digits. That trio is comprised of frontcourt players Grant (16.8 & 5.0), Bey (14.1 & 7.9) and Olynyk (12.4 7 4.6), Seven more players have participated in all seven games, avergaing betwee 5.7 and 9.4 PPG. All eyes are on the top pick in the 2021 Draft, Cade Cunningham. He went 2-for-14 from the floor in his second appearance of the season against the Bucks. He's taken 14 three-point shots in his two games and missed EVERY one of them."That's part of his rust," head coach Casey said of the rookie, who sprained his ankle during training camp. "That's why we tried to get him some minutes toward the end, just to get some rust off the pipes." Here's the rub. Philadelphia has seemed adjust to playing without Ben Simmons in the lineup and is gunning for its fifth straight victory tonight. No reason to think that Philly can't match or excede the 112.0 PPG that the team has averaged in its four-game winning. After all, the Pistons have allowed 117 points in each of their last two games, including to a Milwaukee team that was missing regular starers Middleton, Holiday, Lopez and DiVincenzo. I expect Phily to score 155 points or more, meaning this game can go OVER even in the Pistons do no better than match their 95.0 PPG average. Note: The Pistons scored 102 opoints at Philadelphia on Oct 28. Good luck...Larry |
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11-01-21 | Spurs v. Pacers OVER 219 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on SA/Ind Over at 7:10 ET The Spurs snapped a four-game losing streak with a 102-93 win in Milwaukee on Saturday. San Antonio's defense carried it to the victory, which was also its first on the road this season. The Spurs limited Milwaukee's attack to 21 points below its per-game scoring average coming in and avenged a 10-point loss at home to the Bucks on Oct 23. 2-4 San Antonio will visit Indiana on Monday to take on the struggling Indiana Pacers. Indiana had made NINE postseasons in its previous 10 years before missing out last season with a 34-38 record. Now, the Pacers have opened 1-6 and carry a four-game losing streak into Monday's game after a 97-94 loss at home to Toronto on Saturday. The Spurs started the same five players in each of their first four games but McDermott (11.5) missed his second straight game with right knee soreness in Saturday's win and will not play on Monday. Walker (13.2) will take his place, joining Murray (17.7-8.5-8.8), Johnson (15.8 & 5.3), Poetle (14.3 & 10.3) and White (13.2 & 6.2 APG). Indiana PG Brogdon (23.4-7.0-7.5) did not play for Indiana in Saturday's loss (hamstring strain), which was the second game of a road-home back-to-back.He is questionable for this one. Domantas Sabonis (20.9-11.1-4.1) led the Pacers with 22 points and 14 rebounds but missed a 3-pointer in the final seconds that would have tied the game against Toronto. Justin Holiday (8.6) added 16 points, rookie Chris Duarte (17.7 & 4.7) had 12, Jeremy Lamb (10.0) scored 11 points and center Myles Turner (12.4 & 7.4) had 10 points and 11 rebounds. Caris LeVert saw the court for the first time this season and scored 15 points in 16 minutes for Indiana, all in the first half. LeVert is on a minutes restriction because of a stress fracture in his back that forced him to miss the Pacers' first six games but should be able to give Indiana a good 20 minutes in this one. Non-conference matchups aren't always the most intense on the defensive side and I expect that to be the case here. Dating to last season though Indiana has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last nine after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 95 or fewer points. The Spurs had lost four in a row prior to their win over the defending champs and won't be taking anything for granted in this one, as they must feel this is a game that they can win outright as well. I expect both teams to push the pace from the opening tip, resulting in an O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans OVER 219.5 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Month is on Atl/NO Over at 7:40 ET. The Atlanta Hawks made the playoffs for 10 straight years from the 2007-08 through the 2016-17 seasons. The Hawks then followed with THREE consecutive last-place finishes in the Southeast division with a combined 73-158 (.316) record. However, the Hawks had a breakout season last year, going 41-31 and reaching the Eastern Conference final before falling to the Bucks, who went on to win the NBA title. The Pelicans were 48-34 back in 2017-18 but have gone 33-49, 30-42 and 31-41 the last three seasons, the last two after selecting 'King' Zion as the first pick of the 2019 Draft. The 2-1 Hawks open a three-game road trip tonight in New Orleans against the 1-3 Pelicans. Atlanta crushed the Mavs 113-87 in its season-opener at home but its first road game didn't go well, losing 101-95 at Cleveland. The Hawks rebounded to beat visiting Detroit 122-104 on Monday night but now will be tested tonight at New Orleans, a contest that 'kicks off' a stretch in which EIGHT of the team's next 10 games will be played away from home. PG Young leads a deep roster averaging 25.0 & 10.0 APG. Four more players average in double digits, led by Reddish, who averages 18.7 PPG off the bench. Starting center Capela is averaging a modest 8.7 PPG but leads the team averaging 11.7 RPG. New Orleans' starting lineup is under flex, as first-year coach Willie Green evaluates his roster and prepares to go without Williamson. "We've got a ton of guys who can play," Green said. "I have some decisions to make." The Pelicans fired Stan Van Gundy after the team finished 31-41 in his only season. In addition to the coaching change, the Pelicans overhauled their roster, trading Lonzo Ball, Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe, while bringing in Jonas Valanciunas (Memphis), Devonte' Graham (Charlotte) and Tomas Satoransky and Garrett Temple (both Chicago). Ingram (27.0-7.5-4.8-4.9) has developed into an outstanding small forward and will be the "go-to guy" until Williamson returns. Both Graham (17.8 & 5.0 APG) and Valanciunas (17.3 & 15.0) have made immediate contributions plus Alexander-Walker (17.3-5.5-7.8) has made great strides in his third season. The problem? No other Pelicans player is averaging as much as 6.0 PPG. The Pelicans finished a three-game road trip of their own with their first victory of the season, 107-98 at Minnesota on Monday. First-year head coach Willie Green called the win "refreshing" after starting the season with three consecutive losses. The Pels are not a strong defensive team and while Atlanta's defense has been great to this point (97.3 PPG ranks 2nd), I don't see that as being a sustainable number over the long-term, as the Hawks allowed 111.4 PPG last season. Regression in that department is going to happen sooner, rather than later. I'm expecting a very up-tempo game tonight so go O-V-E-R! |
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10-26-21 | 76ers v. Knicks UNDER 218.5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Play of the Day is on Phi/NYK Under at 7:40 ET. The 76ers are at MSG tonight to take on the Knicks, as both teams enter with 2-1 records. The 76ers had the East's best record last season (49-23) but again flopped in the playoffs. They are playing without Ben Simmons (14.7-5.6-7.2), who demanded a trade over the summer after struggling in a seven-game second-round loss to the Atlanta Hawks plus guard Shake Milton (13.0 PPG last season) has yet to play with an ankle injury. The Knicks ended a seven-year postseason drought last year by going 41-31 but lost in the first round to the Atlanta Hawks, who made it all the way to the East Conference Finals. However, after impressive wins over Boston at home (138 points in two OTs) and at Orlando (scored 121 points), the Knicks lost to Orlando in MSG in a quick turnaround, being held to 104 points. |
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10-25-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 234.5 | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Play of the Day is on Port/LAC Under at 10:40 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers welcome Portland to Staples Center on Monday night, still searching for their first win of the season. The Clippers have had to dig themselves out of double-digit deficits in both losses, exerting a lot of energy to get back into the game, only to fall short in the fourth quarter. LA trailed by as many as 19 points in a season-opening, 115-113 setback on the road vs the Warriors and then fell behind by as many as 16 points in a 120-114 home loss to the Grizzlies. The Clippers need to figure out how to make up for the loss of superstar Kawhi Leonard, who remains out indefinitely as he rehabs from an ACL tear in his right knee suffered during the playoffs last June. Paul George has carried the scoring load for the Clippers offensively (35.0-10.5-5.0) but he needs some help from his teammates. The Blazers visit LA at 1-1. Portland was upset 124-121 at home by the Kings on Wednesday but then routed the Suns 134-105 on Saturday. CJ McCollum paced Portland with 28 points on 10-of-19 shooting from the floor, while Damian Lillard added 19 points and eight assists. Four Blazers are averaging in double digits, led by guards McCollum (31.0-4.5-3.0) and Lillard (19.5-3.5-9.0) plus center Nurkic (14.5 & 13.0). The Clippers have always prided themselves on playing tough D but enter having allowed 117.5 PPG over their first two. Expect LA to bounce back with a much better defensive effort in the third game of the season and remember, the Blazers brought in Chauncey Billups as their head coach to Improve Portland's defense. HUGE number here and I say go UNDER! Good luck...Larry
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10-24-21 | Magic v. Knicks UNDER 215.5 | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
My NBA 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Orl/NYK Under at 7:10 ET. Orlando went 48-34 in the 2017-18 season (lost in conference semis) but the last three years, has played .416 basketball without even 'sniffing' a playoff berth. Orlando is in full rebuild mode this season and new head coach in Jamahl Mosley, who doesn't have a lot to work with. Meanwhile, the Knicks ended a seven-year postseason drought last year by going 41-31. New York lost in the first round to the Atlanta Hawks, who made it all the way to the East Conference Finals. Orlando opened its season by allowing 123 points at San Antonio and then 121 points at home to the Knicks, to open 0-2. It could (will be) a L-O-N-G first season for the Magic and Mosley. The Knicks preceded their win over the Magic by topping the Celtics 138-134 in two OTs in their season opener. The Two teams now play a quick turnaround game Sunday night at MSG. It's really hard to know what to make with Orlando. The Magic's inexperience has been exposed during an 0-2 start. In their season opener Wednesday at San Antonio, the Magic led for much of the first quarter and remained within a possession of the lead well into the second quarter but fell 123-.97 Against the Knicks on Friday at home, Orlando fell behind for good fewer than four minutes into the game. The Magic went 0-for-8 from the floor while being outscored 16-0 over the final 4:34 of the first quarter and trailed 36-16. Final score; 121-96. The Magic's starters in the first two games, Cole Anthony, Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner, are all 23 years of age or younger. Plus all FIVE are first-round draft picks Randle (35-8-9) and Fournier (32 points) led the way in the 138-134 win over Boston, as New York shot 48.6% from the floor, including 17 of 45 on threes. Friday night in Atlanta, Randle had more modest totals of 21-10-7 and Fournier added "just" 18 points. However, the team shot 500.% overall, including 24 of 54 on threes. What's going on with ALL the threes, has the defensive-minded Tom Thibodeau turned into Paul Westwood? The bottom line is, I can't see the Knicks pushing the pace in this one from the opening tip until the final horn, with Philadelphia coming to town next. New York has also seen the total go under the number in SEVEN of its last nine after a SU/ATS road win in which it scored 120 or more points in. Play under. Good luck...Larry |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 221 | Top | 88-110 | Loss | -101 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Hawks/Bucks. Even without Trae Young playing (he could), I think Game 4 sets up as more of an offensive affair, than a defensive one. Young is obviously a big part of this Hawks offense, but this is a feisty Atlanta team which won't be going down without a fight. John Collins, Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic will be pressed to fill the void. And for Milwaukee, it can obviously smell the blood in the water now. The Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.2 points and 13 rebounds while Khris Middleton is averaging 23.1 points and 4.7 assists. Jrue Holiday is a third double-digit scoring threat for Milwaukee. Young will do everything in his power to play tonight (obviously), but as I stated above, whether he does or not, this one has the feel of a wide-open "shootout," rather than a tight defensive "chess match." This number is low, the play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the UNDER Hawks/Bucks. To say I'm surprised by how well Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks are playing would be an understatement. This isn't just a "playoffs" thing either, as Atlanta caught fire over the final month and a half of the regular season as well. The biggest turnaround has been the Hawks' suffocating defensive play. The Knicks also entered the post-season as one of the hottest teams in the league, but the Hawks absolutely shutdown Julius Randle and went on to win in five games. Atlanta got down early in Game 1 and had to battle from behind, but when the Hawks needed a couple of big defensive plays late, they did just that in the outright upset victory. The Hawks are obviously more comfortable playing with a lead, as they're then able to smother teams defensively. Milwaukee can't be pleased with the way it collapsed defensively. The Bucks can score, but they'll be out to atone for their lacklustre performance on the defensive end in Game 1. From a situational stand point, this one in my opinion for sure sets up as more of a defensive affair (and note, the Bucks have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded 115 or more points in.) Game 1 went over, but everything points to Game 2 staying under. Good luck...Larry |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 218.5 | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONF FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Suns/Clippers. Game 1 went over the number in the Suns victory. LA looked good for three quarters, but then faded down the stretch after coming from behind to knock off the Jazz. Game 2 went under the number in Phoenix's slim 104-103 last-second victory. I think this back-and-forth pattern on the total continues in Game 3. LA has to be the aggressor from start to finish here. It's already been down 0-2 in every other series up to this point, before then rallying for victory. Will that happen again here? It's hard to imagine the Clippers advancing past the Suns, especially with Chris Paul returning to the line-up tonight for the visiting side. But Paul won't be in "game shape" quite yet and this is Paul George's best chance to get his team back into this series. Momentum is an almost tangible factor in the playoffs and while the Clippers came up just short in Game 2, I still think they can turn things around with a win today. And there are rumors that Kawhi Leonard could return before this series ends as well. So with a win today and Leonard returning for Game 5, the stage could be set for another big series come-back for the Clippers. Whether Leonard played or not, I didn't think the Clippers were going to get swept in this series. LA will have to be the aggressor from the start. With the home side pushing the pace, look for the Suns to match that tempo. I am expecting a faster-paced, wide-open shootout in Game 3. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 219.5 | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SEMI-FINAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Nets/Bucks. Depending on when you played Game 5's total, you either won, lost or pushed. It was close. Most would have pushed on the closing line. Regardless, this series has been a very low-scoring one. And that's surprising, because Milwaukee finished as the No. 1 offense in the league in regular season. Brooklyn finished near the bottom in almost every defensive category as well. I think Game 6 will be a wide-open affair. Milwaukee let a 17-point lead slip away in Game 5, so clearly it'll be out to atone for that mess-up, and that means playing hard for a full four quarters. Can Kevin Durant duplicate his historic performance from Game 5? KD has been unstoppable so far in this series and I can't see that trend changing here in this critical moment. Despite the injuries to Kyrie Irving and James Harden, the Nets role players are rallying and doing more than enough to support Durant. Harden has been cleared to play here, and he should be signficantly better after returning from injury and getting that first awkward game out of the way. Expect these two offensive-minded clubs to finally blast past this number with a competitive, higher-scoring Game 6. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Nuggets/Suns. Game 1 went under the number in the Suns 122-105 win, but I expect more of a defensive affair in Game 2. The Nuggets have been leaning on big man Nikola Jokic all season, and just yesterday he finally earned his first MVP award ever. Jokic and the Nuggets are going to be even extra motivated now to deliver an upset victory, before this series shifts back to Denver. The Suns played to four straight "unders" to open their series with the Lakers, but they've now seen the total go over in two straight. We know Phoenix can score, but the big difference this year for the Suns has been their progression on the defensive end. I think the Suns can duplicate their defensive performance from Game 1 here, although I think they'll have their hands full this time for a full four-quarters with an experienced and aggressive Denver defense. When I look at this game from a situational stand point, it definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair, than a run-and-gun shootout in my opinion. But note as well, Denver has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss of 15 or more points against an opponent. This number is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 216.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -101 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the OVER Clippers/Mavericks. This has been a highly entertaining series. Dallas has played better than most thought it would and it has a golden opportunity here to close out the Clippers. LA won't have the luxury here to sit back and play aggressive defense, instead it'll have to force the tempo here and outshoot this red hot Mavericks offense if it has any chance of extending this series to a seventh game. Situationally in my opinion, this one absolutely sets up as a "run-and-gun" shootout, rather than a grind it out "chess match." Each team is filled with offensive talent, and note that the Clippers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of their last 14 in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 100 points or less in. With each team pushing the pace, look for this one to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The play is indeed the over. Good luck...Larry |
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05-30-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 222 | Top | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the UNDER Clippers/Mavericks. After the Clippers fought from behind to take Game 3, this series has suddenly become a lot more interesting. The Mavericks rolled to two straight road victories in LA to open this series, but the Clippers dug deep and managed to earn the Game 3 victory. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George haven been fantastic for the Clippers, but it was LA's aggressive defensive play in the second half of Game 3 which was the difference-maker, and I do now expect the visitors to carry that momentum over here. Dallas is going to have to find a way to slow down Leonard and George, or their two-game advantage is going to slip away quickly. One thing to note is that the Mavericks have in fact seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenage a ten points or greater SU/ATS home loss against an opponent. While the last two games have flown over the number, Game 4 sets up as a defensive affair in my opinion. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 212.5 | Top | 92-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the OVER Hawks/Knicks. Game 1 snuck UNDER the number, but I'm expecting a more wide-open affair in Game 2. Clearly, the Knicks will be laying everything on the line here to try and even up this series and before heading to Atlanta. The Hawks have to be thrilled that they've already earned a split, but they'll be out to prove it wasn't a fluke and to take a commanding grip on this series with another big effort here as well. New York is known for its defense, as it's ranked among the best in several categories The Knicks, however, are going to have to be the aggressors here from the opening tip until the final horn in Game 2. Julius Randle was held in check in Game 1, but I can't see that happening to the MIP of the year in back-to-back games (and it's interesting to note as well that the Knicks have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 105 points or fewer.) Atlanta got the win in Game 1 by the skin of its teeth, and that was with Randle having his worst performance of the season basically. Clearly, the Hawks can't be completely satisfied with their performance either. With the Knicks pushing the pace to try and even things up and to send a message to the Hawks before this series shifts to Atlanta, look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 213.5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
10* FIRST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Lakers/Suns. If the Lakers are going to win this series, they're going to grind down the Suns defensively and wear out Chris Paul and Devin Booker. They'll also try and establish their big men throughout. The Lakers come into the playoffs fully healthy. The Suns will also have to double down on the defensive end in this series if they want to be successful. Phoenix has always been known for its scoring, but the big turnaround this season has indeed been on the defensive end, as it's held its opposition to an effective field goal percentage of 53.4%, which ranks tenth overall. LA will look to grind out possessions in an attempt to control the pace and flow and to take the game out of Paul's hands. Defensive intensity tends to pick up in the playoffs (obviously), and these are two of the best in the league on that end of the floor. Game 1 has under written all over it. Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the UNDER Warriors/Lakers. If the Warriors are going to win this game, they're going to have to try to somehow break down the Lakers tough perimeter defense and get some open shots from the outside. If the Lakers are going to win this game, they're going to play tough perimeter defense, and use their big men from start to finish while on offense. With the home side's offense being run through the paint, I do indeed expect a more methodical pace here. Golden State has plenty of great young talent in Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins, but they're both in unchartered territory here. The defending champs are back to full strength essentially and I expect them to send an early message to the Warriors, and the rest of the league. Clearly, Curry has to have a monster game for the Warriors to win, but I just can't see that happening against this stout Lakers defense. LA only averages 109.5 PPG, so it's definitely not like the Lakers are blowing out teams on a nightly basis either. LA won the last two games in this series handily and while that may or may not happen here, in my opinion everything points to the under as the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-21 | Celtics v. Wolves OVER 229.5 | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER On the OVER Twolves. The Celtics have lost five of their last six. They finish up their season in Washington, but I don't think they'll go down without a fight here vs. the Wolves. Boston is dealing with several key injury issues, but despite that I think this total will soar well over. Boston will be out to atone for a poor 102-94 road loss in Cleveland. Minnesota though would love nothing more than to earn a few more victories before the season ends. The Wolves have been hampered by injury all season, but they're healthier now than they've been all year. They've won six of their last ten and I believe they'll be out to control the tempo here, which means pushing the pace from start to finish. Finally, note that the over is 5-0 the last five in this series. I don't expect defense to be a concern for either team today. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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09-06-20 | Bucks v. Heat OVER 218.5 | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year is on Mil/Mia Over at 3:30 ET. Here's what I wrote in support of the Bucks in Games 2 and 3 vs the Heat. Milwaukee went an NBA-best 56-17 on the season, 12 games better than Miami's 44-29 record. The Bucks have been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. The Bucks showed no interest in their eight regular season games in the bubble but after a Game 1 'hiccup' vs Orlando in this is the playoffs, the Bucks won FOUR straight by an average margin of 14.5 PPG. The Bucks lost Game 1, even though they led by 11 points after the first quarter, as the Heat controlled the rest of the game to win by 11. The Heat were the team to get off to a quick start in Game 2, leading 38-29 at the end of the first quarter. Miami's lead was 90-86 entering the fourth but Milwaukee had the lead back on the very first possession of the final quarter. Middleton was fouled on a three-point try, He made the first two free throws and the rebound of the third was controlled by the Bucks. Kyle Korver made a three-pointer off that rebound to cap a five-point possession for Milwaukee, which had the lead again at 91-90 for the first time since 14-13. However, the Heat then scored 13 of the next 15 points to not only reclaim the lead but push it to 103-93 with 7:50 left. Miami led by SIX with 27 seconds left but almost let it slip away. I'm sure everyone saw the frantic few seconds but in the end, Miami won 116-114 (and deservedly so). Then in Game 3, Milwaukee led by 12 points entering the fourth quarter and ultimately lost by 15!! The Bucks were outscored in the fourth quarter by 27 (40-13), which was the largest points differential in a fourth quarter of a playoff game in the shot clock era (since 1955), according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Miami ended the game on a 17-1 run. History says the Bucks are 'dead.' No NBA team ever has come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series in 139 attempts in NBA playoff history! The Bucks have confounded me and MANY others as well. History says they are 'dead' but as the saying goes, "all things are true until they aren't!" Giannis Antetokounmpo finished Game 3 with 21 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists but he missed all SEVEN three-point attempts and made only 7 of 12 free throws (he made just 4 of 12 FTs in Game 1). Antetokounmpo was dealing with a twisted right ankle in Game 3, an ailment he sustained in the first quarter on a drive to the basket. It's unclear whether it will limit him in Game 4. He didn't say much about it after Game 3. Will Giannis even suit up with Milwaukee in an 0-3 'hole?' Giannis is hardly the problem for the Bucks in this series, as Milwaukee has averaged 14.3 turnovers per game and shot 35.1 percent from three-point range so far in the series, including just 20.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The fact that Miami is averaging 31.0 free-throw attempts per game, is a HUGE problem for the Bucks, as is containing Jimmy Butler. He had 40 points in Game 1 (career playoff-high), hit the game-winning free throws with no time on the clock in Game 2 and scored 30 points in Game 3, including 17 in the decisive fourth quarter! Butler's getting plenty of help from the team's other four starters this postseason (all are averaging between 10.4 and 22.3 PPG) plus rookie Herro has averaged 15.3 PPG off the bench in this year's playoffs. The Bucks no longer have ANY pressure on them (the team's 'obit' has already been written) and what I see (Giannis limited or not) is Milwaukee playing loose and for this game to 'fly' over the total. Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-20 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 213 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* 1st Round Total of the Year is on Bos/Phi Over at 1:00 ET. The third-seeded Boston Celtics hope to complete a playoff-series sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers (No. 6 seed) in Game 4 of their best-of-seven series on Sunday afternoon. Boston scored Game 3's final 10 points on Friday, walking away with a 102-94 win. Here's how the game turned down the stretch. Embiid gave the 76ers their last lead of Game 3 at 94-92 on two free throws with 2:14 remaining but with the 76ers having a chance to add to their lead, he attempted a cross-court pass out of a double-team. The ball was intercepted by Marcus Smart and turned into a three-point play by Jaylen Brown for a 95-94 advantage for the Celtic. Philly had a chance to retake the lead on their next possession but Embiid's off-balance jumper was blocked by Jayson Tatum, who was then fouled in the open court, resulting in a clear-path infraction and two free throws. He made one and when Kemba Walker buried a 20-footer with 1:05 left on the Celtics' ensuing possession, Boston was up four and headed to a commanding series lead. And so it goes. Boston's Hayward was lost for the series in Game 1 but Boston has produced a trio of 20-point scorers in this series, Tatum (26.7 & 8.0), Brown (23.3 & 6.0) and Walker (21.7-4.3-3.7). Smart has replaced Hayward in the starting lineup the last two games and has averaged 12.0-6.0-2.5. Philly began the series with Simmons and Embiid has been the 'big dog,' averaging 30.0 & 13.0. Regular starters Richardson (17.7 & 4.0) and Harris (14.3 & 11.0) have played well enough, as has Milton (14.7), who has replaced Simmons. Philly was counting on Horford to step up his game come playoff time but that hasn't been the case. He's averaging 30.7 MPG (has started two of the three) but is averaging just 5.3 & 6.3 (averaged 11.9 & 6.8 in the regular season. Many feel as if the 76ers are 'toast' and that head coach Brett Brown "is as good as gone." However, the 76ers have had real chances to win in BOTH Games 1 and 2. Philly had a chance to win Game 1, leading 79-75 into the 4th quarter and trailed by just THREE with under a minute to go in the game. I've also detailed the team's late-game collapse in Game 3, above. Embiid was dominant in the first half during Game 3, racking up 22 points and 10 rebounds while going 6-for-11 from the floor. However, he would shoot just 1-for-9 from the floor in the second half, finishing with 30 points and 13 rebounds. Here's the rub. Embiid's been the MVP of the series in the first halves, averaging 19.0 points on 59.4-percent shooting while adding 8.7 rebounds. However, he's been held to 29.2-percent shooting in the second halves, scoring 11.0 and grabbing a modest 4.3 rebounds. Boston/Philly is the league's oldest rivalry (the franchises are meeting for the 21st time in the postseason) and the simple fact is that the Celtics last swept the 76ers in a playoff series was back in the 1957Eastern Finals, when the franchise played as played as the Syracuse Nationals. I 'm NOT predicting that the 76ers can come back and win but I don't see them going down without a fight in this one. For that to happen, the 76ers will HAVE to score more than the pathetic 98/7 PPG they've averaged through the first three games of the series. That's NOT a stretch, as Philly averaged 110.7 PPG during the regular season. In this "win-or-go-home" game, expect Philly to at least reach that season average which means, this one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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03-07-20 | Washington v. Arizona OVER 139 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Washington/Arizona Over at 10:00 ET.
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03-07-20 | Jazz v. Pistons OVER 214 | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Ut/Det Over at 7:05 ET.
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03-04-20 | Virginia v. Miami-FL OVER 117.5 | Top | 46-44 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* play is on UVA/Mia-Fl Over at 9:00 ET.
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02-29-20 | Duke v. Virginia OVER 123.5 | Top | 50-52 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Duke/UVA Over at 6:00 ET.
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02-29-20 | Florida v. Tennessee OVER 130.5 | Top | 58-63 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on Florida/Tennessee Over at 2:00 ET.
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02-26-20 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech OVER 111 | Top | 56-53 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on UVA/Va Tech Over at 7:00 ET.
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02-22-20 | Virginia v. Pittsburgh OVER 108 | Top | 59-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Eye-Opener is on UVA/Pitt Over at 12 noon ET.
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02-21-20 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 211.5 | Top | 106-98 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/NYK Over at 7:35 ET.
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02-19-20 | Boston College v. Virginia OVER 114 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on BC/UVA Over at 8:00 ET.
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02-15-20 | Virginia v. North Carolina OVER 118 | Top | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Virginia/North Carolina Over at 8:00 ET.
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02-06-20 | Magic v. Knicks OVER 204.5 | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Orl/NYK Over at 7:35 ET.
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02-05-20 | Clemson v. Virginia OVER 107 | Top | 44-51 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Total of the Week is on Clemson/Virginia Over at 7:00 ET.
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01-29-20 | Loyola-Chicago v. Southern Illinois OVER 118 | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Loy-Chi/Sou Ill Over at 8:00 ET.
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01-26-20 | Virginia v. Wake Forest OVER 118 | Top | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on Virginia/Wake Forest Over at 12:00 ET.
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01-18-20 | Magic v. Warriors OVER 212 | Top | 95-109 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Orl/Gold St Over at 8:35 ET.
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01-15-20 | Virginia v. Florida State OVER 113.5 | Top | 50-54 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on UVA/FSU Over at 7:00 ET.
Leonard Hamilton-coached teams are always known for playing excellent defense but his teams have shown more offensive 'punch' the last few seasons. That's continued in the 2019-20 season, as the Seminoles are holding opponents to 63.4 PPG, but are also scoring 76.4 PPG, The Seminoles wear down teams with their depth and balance on offense, as the top-four scorers produce between 8.8 and 12.3 PPG. Sophomore guard Devin Vassell has averaged 15 points the last three games and now leads the team at 12.3 PPG, just ahead of senior guard Trent Forrest (12.2-3.9-3.9), who notched his first double-double of the season against Wake Forest (14 points & 10 rebounds). Junior guard M.J. Walker combined to score 38 points in his last two games and is third on the team at 11.6 PPG. The 6-8 Williams (8.8 & 3.3) ranks fourth on the team in scoring, while the 6-9 Osborne (6.4 & 5.2) and guard Polite (6.1) are also regular contributors.
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01-10-20 | Hornets v. Jazz OVER 212.5 | Top | 92-109 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Cha/Ut Over at 9:05 ET.
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01-07-20 | Virginia v. Boston College OVER 113.5 | Top | 53-60 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* CBB Total of the Week is on UVA/BC Over at 7:00 ET.
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12-30-19 | CS Sacramento v. Montana OVER 124 | Top | 50-52 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Total of the Week is on Sac St/Montana Over at 9:00 ET. It's a Big Sky matchup Monday night, as 7-3 Sacramento St visits Bozeman to take on 5-7 Montana. The Hornets have the better record but have opened 0-1 in league play, while the Grizzlies are 1-0 to open conference play. Sacramento St hasn't won more than 15 games in each of the previous four seasons, with last year's 15-16 record being the "high-mark" during that span. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are coming off a 26-9 season, its second straight 26-win season, each ending with an NCAA appearance. However, FOUR starters are gone from last yea's team, although the 6-5 Pridgett will be the best player on the floor tonight, as he averages 20.0 PPG and 7.9 RPG. The team's only other double-digit scorer is guard Manuel, who played last season after transferring from Ore St. The 6-4 redshirt senior averaged 8.7 PPG last season but is up to 12.9 this season. The Hornets' feature FIVE players scoring between 7.4 and 13.5 PPG, with 6-8 senior center Patton (13.5 & 5.1) leading the way, while the 6-7 Esposito adds 9.6 & 5.7. Sacramento St's strength is a defense allowing just 53.5 PPG (3rd) on 35.8% shooting (6th). OK, so why am I going over? All FIVE of Montana's wins this season have come at home in Dahlberg Arena (5-1), with the Grizzlies averaging 72.5 PPG with the final scores of the team's six home contests averaging 137.5 PPG. These schools met THREE times last season and the finals totaled, 153, 154 and 152. How about that for consistency? With this total in the mid-120s, I CAN'T resist Goin' Over. Are you with me? Good luck...Larry |
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12-29-19 | Kings v. Nuggets OVER 207.5 | Top | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Dec Total of the Month is on Sac/Den Over at 8:05 ET.
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12-22-19 | South Carolina v. Virginia OVER 111.5 | Top | 70-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on South Carolina/Virginia Over at 3:00 ET.
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12-07-19 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 207.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/NYK Over at 7:35 ET.
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12-04-19 | Virginia v. Purdue OVER 102 | Top | 40-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Dec Total of the Month is on Virginia/Purdue Over at 7:15 ET.
Purdue clearly misses Edwards, although Proctor (14.6) and Hunter (10.3) make a pair of quality guards. The 7-3 Haarms (11.7 & 6.4) and the 6-9 Wheeler (6.4 & 7.1) are team's top frontcourt players. Matt Painter-coached teams always play good D and this year is no different, as Purdue has held all seven opponents to 70 points or less to start the season (58.4 PPG on the season to ranks 18th nationally). Haarms went 6-of-6 from the floor en route to a team-high 16 points to go along with eight rebounds against Florida State, but it wasn't enough as the Boilermakers were doomed by a 33.9 percent shooting performance from the floor in the 63-60 OT loss. Aaron Wheeler and Evan Boudreaux (4.4 & 3.3) combined for six points on 2-of-18 shooting, including 0-for-8 from three-point range, as Purdue missed seven of its eight attempts from the floor and had five turnovers in overtime.
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11-17-19 | UC Riverside v. Pacific OVER 116 | Top | 51-58 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on UC Riverside/Pacific Over at 6:00 ET. UC-Riverside visits Stockton, Ca on Sunday, as the Highlanders take on the Pacific Tigers. Riverside went just 10-23 last season under first-time head coach David Patrick but has designs on being at least a .500 team in the current season by adapting a slower pace and controlling the clock. The 2-1 Highlanders are averaging only 57.7 PPG (ranks 337th of 351 Division I schools) but the team's "pace" has also allowed them to hold opponents to just 53.3 PPG (13th-best in the nation). Pacific went to three straight NCAA tourneys from 2004-06 and then made another trip in 2013. The following season, Pacific made it to the NIT semis but the basketball program has imploded, since. Beginning in the 2014-15 season, the Tigers have gone 12-19, 8-20, 11-22, 14-18 and 14-18. Pacific has been led the last three seasons by former Arizona All American and 15-year NBA player, Damon Stoudamire. Riverside is led by 7-1 center McCrae, who is leading the team in scoring (13.7) and rebounding (9.3). A trio of guards chip in 9.0-to-10.3 PPG, including 6-3 UTSA transfer Wilborn, who averages 8.7 RPG to go along with his 9.0 points. Stoudamire claims his team's depth will bring about a much better season for the Tigers. Pacific features NINE new players, including graduate transfers and freshman. The team's leading scorer is Ga Tech transfer Moore (11.6 & 3.6 APG) and the team's leading rebounder is returning 6-5 senior guard Tripp (8.0 & 6.8). The 6-9 McCray has recovered from a torn ACL and is back averaging 10.8 & 5.6 plus Finstuen, a JC transfer guard, is averaging 9.6. Here's the 'dope.' The opening Ov/Un number was 117 1/2 but I'm saying "no way" this game is staying under that number (I was able to go over 116). Stoudamire 'LOVES' his team's depth and after five games, ELEVEN Pacific players are logging 11-plus minutes per game. Yes, Pacific has already played FIVE games (no school has played more), while averaging 72.0 per. Just three of those games have featured pointspreads and O/U lines with all three going over (closing totals of 133, 123.5 and 132). This one is Goin' Over, as well. Good luck...Larry |
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11-15-19 | Spurs v. Magic OVER 211.5 | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on SA/Orl Over at 7:05 ET. The San Antonio Spurs opened the season 4-1 but a warning sign was their 1-4 ATS mark. It was more than telling, as the Spurs 'limp' into Orlando having lost FIVE of six since that 4-1 start, while the team's ATS woes have continued. The Spurs are 1-5 ATS during the 1-5 SU stretch, giving them a 2-9 ATS mark in the team's 5-6 start. The Spurs will look to salvage the finale of a two-game trip Friday in Orlando, coming off 129-114 loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. The Magic ended a six-year playoff drought last season, finishing 42-40. They returned the core of that team intact and entered the season healthy but opened 2-6. However, Wednesday's impressive 112-97 victory against visiting Philadelphia, improved the Magic to 2-1 on their current five-game homestand. San Antonio's "Big 3" is a thing of the past, although guard Derozan (20.1-4.9-54.8) and PF Aldridge (17.9 & 5.9) give the team a solid "Big 2." That said, Aldridge has been an enigma, averaging 25 points on 58.6 percent from the floor in his team's five wins but just 12 points on 43.9 percent in its six losses. PG Dejounte Murray (10.9-7.3-4.7) looks fully recovered from his knee injury and is off his minutes restrictions. He joins FOUR other Spurs (no counting DeRozan and Aldridge), scoring in double digits. The group includes guards Forbes (14.3), Mills (12.0) and White (11.3), plus SF Green (10.7 & 7.1). Tre Lyles starts at center and while he's not much of a scoring threat (4.6), he's averaging 8.0 RPG in only about 20 minutes. Orlando ranks first in the NBA in holding opponents to 99.1 PPG but is last in scoring offense (99.4 PPG) on 42.1% shooting (29th). However, after being held to 99 points or fewer in each of their first SEVEN games, the Magic have scored at least 102 in FOUR straight contests. Orlando's starting frontcourt of center Nikola Vucevic (17.8 & 11.5) plus forwards Aaron Gordon (14.0 & 6.2) and Jonathan Isaac (12.1 & 6.5) is a formidable one plus Fournier (15.3) is a scorer on the perimeter. Those four have started all 11 games, while guards Augustin (9.5 & 4.5 APG) and Fultz (9.5) have each played in all 11, with Fultz starting six and Augustin, five. Here's where I'm going with this. "Once Upon a Time," the Pop-coached Spurs were among the NBA's best defensive teams but San Antonio ranks 23rd in points allowed (114.2) and 26trh in defensive FG percentage (47.5). In the team's current three-game skid, the Spurs are allowing 125.7 points and saw the Timberwolves scored 40 points in TWO different quarters on Wednesday. Getting back to Orlando, I noted the team's dramatic offensive improvement lately and putting a 'number' to that improvement shows the Magic averaging 109.5 PPG over its last four contests. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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11-10-19 | Pacers v. Magic OVER 203 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/Orl Over at 6:05 ET. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team but there is still no timetable for his return. Indiana opened the current season 0-3 but will visit Orlando on Sunday, winners of FIVE of its last six. The Magic ended a six-year playoff drought last season, finishing 42-40. They returned the core of that team intact and entered the season healthy but Friday's 118-86 win over Memphis gives them just a 3-6 start to the current season. The Pacers come to Orlando with center Myles Turner (14.8 & 6.8) and SG Jeremy Lamb (17.0& 6.4) are both dealing with ankle sprains and neither will play. Indiana placed SEVEN players in double figures in Friday's 112-106 win over Detroit. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has carried the load through the ups and downs of the current season, averaging 21.0-5.1-9.0. The 6-11 Sabonis had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season, averaging 19.9 & 12.6. Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 17.9 PPG. With injuries to Turner and Lamb, SFs McDermott and Sampson are seeing more time, with McDermott scoring 33 and Sampson 24, the last two games. Orlando ranks 2nd in the NBA in holding opponents to 98.2 PPG but is last in scoring offense (97.7 PPG). However, the Magic finally showed what the team can be when the shots fall on Friday. Orlando routed Memphis 118-86, holding the Grizzlies to 37.2 percent from the floor, in line with the team's excellent defensive play all season but Orlando also had a breakout offensive effort, The starting frontcourt of center Nikola Vucevic plus forwards Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac combined to go 25-of-38 from the floor (65.8%) while scoring 62 points. We've got really good defensive players on this team and the one thing we can hang our hats on is knowing that we can defend," Gordon told reporters. "That (defensive) side of the floor, we know that we can handle pretty much anybody. But it's nice to see our offense get going as well." "Turned the corner? I don't know, but we did play better," Magic shooting guard Evan Fournier (14.8) told reporters. "We had more easy baskets and that's why we scored. We've been saying that the offense hasn't been good, but it's been because we don't get enough good shots. Tonight, we were able to create a lot of good shots and that was the key." Orlando has been a dead “under” team this season with a great defense coupled with an offense which has been awful. However, there is little reason to think the team's "O" will continue to struggle. Repeating from above, the Magic were a playoff team last year and returned the core of that team intact and healthy. Orlando has gone 'under" in SEVEN of nine games this season (one over and one push) but the Magic scored 106 points in a Wednesday loss at Dallas (team's lone over of the season) and then 118 points Friday (that game stayed under only because Memphis scored 86 points, three 'TDs' lower than the team's scoring average of 108.7 PPG on the season). As for Indiana, the Pacers come into this contest averaging 113.5 PPG in winning FIVE of their last six. It's rare these days to see a NBA over/under number 'hugging' around 200 but that's the case here. My bet says this number is WAAAY too low, based on current form. Go OVER! Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-19 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 204 | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Bos/Ind Over at 1:05 ET. The Indiana Pacers (48-34) went 8-14 down the stretch and the Boston Celtics (49-33) were able to earn the East's No. 4 seed and the homecourt advantage in their first round series with the Pacers, despite going just 7-6 down the stretch. In what was supposed to be a six or seven game series, Boston has controlled both ends of the floor against Indiana and with a 3-0 series lead, can become the first NBA team to advance to the second round of the playoffs when the teams play Game 4 of their best-of-seven series Sunday in Indianapolis. Boston held the Pacers to just 74 points in a 10-point Game 1 win, then outscored Indiana 31-12 in the fourth quarter of Game 2, for an eight-point win. The Pacers had SEVEN players in double digits at home in Game 3 but still weren't able to crack 100 points, losing 104-96. Kyrie Irving finished Game 3 with 19 points, 10 assists, five rebounds and just two turnovers and is averaging 25.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 8.0 assists in the series. Jaylen Brown, who is starting at shooting guard with Marcus Smart (oblique) sidelined, scored 23 points while making 8-of-9 shots on Friday, including 4-of-5 from three-point range. As for Indiana, the Pacers fell victim to another bad quarter in Game 3, losing the third by a 21-12 margin. "The silver lining is that we've been in every single game," PG Darren Collison told reporters. "All it takes is one win. Definitely ain't going to be no quit in us. I know it sounds foolish outside looking in, being down 3-0, but in this locker room there's definitely not going to be no quit." No team in NBA history has ever won a series after falling behind 3-0 and Indiana is basically reduced to playing for pride at this point. Defense was an issue down teh stretch for Indiana, which allowed 11 of its 13 opponents to score 102 or more points. In fact, Boston averaged 115.5 PPG in the two high-stakes meetings from Indiana in the final two weeks, 114-112 in Boston and later 117-97 at Indiana. Not sure whether the Pacers can earn their way into the win column but I believe we'll see the Pacers give a four-quarter offensive effort. Have three straight unders, this one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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04-17-19 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 203 | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
My NBA 10* 1st Round Total of the Year is on Ind/Bos Over at 7:05 ET. The Boston Celtics finished the regular season going 5-5 SU but just 1-9 ATS over their final 10 regular season games. However, the Celtics were able to edge the Pacers for the 4th-seed in the East. The Pacers sure made it easier for Boston, as after winning their first road game after the All Star break., Indiana lost 10 straight road games (2-8 ATS), before winning at Detroit amd Atlanta to end the season. The two teams met Sunday at TD Garden in Game 1 of their first-round series, with the Pacers taking a 45-38 halftime lead. However, the Celtics outmuscled in the Pacers in the second half on their way to an 84-74 win (Boston outscored Indiana 26-8 in the third quarter). Indiana shot just 33.3 percent from the floor (including 6-of-27 on threes) in Game 1 plus also went only 12-of-21 from the FT line. Just ONE starter scored in double digits, as the team's five starters combined for only 38 on 15-of-44 (34.1%) shooting from the floor. Also, the Indiana bench contributed to the team's poor offensive effort, with the usually reliable Domantas Sabonis (3-for-9), Tyreke Evans (3-for-11) and Doug McDermott (1-for-7) combining to shoot just 7-for-27 (25.9%). The Celtics had five players score in double digits, yet scored only 84 points, while shooting 36.4 percent, overall. Despite their lowest scoring game of the season, the Celtics prevailed 84-74 in Game 1 by dominating the second half and limiting the Pacers to 29 points. The Pacers were just 2-of-19 from the floor in the third quarter and made only eight FGs in the entire second half, going 8-for-38 (21.1 percent). The 74-point total was 15 points lower than any previous game this season for the Pacers. The Celtics shot just 32 percent in the first half, before improving to 41 percent in the second half, in what was their lowest scoring game of the season. So what to expect in Game 2? Is it possible that either team will shoot so poorly again? The Pacers shot 47.5% from the floor during the season (4th-best), including 37.4% on threes (5th-best). No way they shoot 33.3%, including 22.2% in Game 2. As for Boston, the Celtics shot 46.5% on the season, 10 percent better than in Game 1. These teams played in Boston down the stretch (March 29), with the Celtics winning 114-112. This game may not reach that level of scoring but I expect both teams to be in 100s and the current total is about a 'TD' lower than what it closed in Game 1 (210.5). This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia OVER 118 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Game of the Month is on Tex Tech/Va Over at 9:20 ET. Texas Tech (31-6) meets Virginia (34-3) in the NCAA Tournament championship game Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, as each school looks to win its first-ever title.. Virginia has limited opponents to a national-best 55.5 PPG on 38.4 percent shooting (5th), while Texas Tech allows 58.8 PPG (3rd) on 36.8 percent shooting (1st). I could go into a detailed analysis of thsisgame but I prefer to make it "short and sweet!" Virginia's 18 regular season ACC games finished with 120 points or more (opening total of this game was 119) in 12 of 18 contests. In UVa's seven postseason games (two ACC tourney games and five NCAA tourney ones), FIVE of the seven have exceeded 120 or more. As for Texas Tech, 17 of its 18 Big 12 games finished with 120 or more points. The Red Raiders were bounced in their first Big 12 tourney contest (79-74 by West Va) and in five NCAA games, the final has finished with 120 or more, three times. I'm just going say "O-V-E-R" and let the chips fall where the may. Good luck...Larry |
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03-28-19 | Florida State v. Gonzaga OVER 146.5 | Top | 58-72 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* NCAA Tourney Total of the Year is on FSU/Gonzaga Over at 7:29 ET. 29-7 Florida State has won EIGHT of its last nine games, including a 90-62 rout of Murray State and Ja Morant in the Round of 32 Saturday. The team's only loss in that stretch came in the ACC tournament final against Duke (note: the Seminoles also lost to the Blue Devils 80-78 on a Cam Reddish 3-pointer with 0.8 seconds to go during the regular season on). Awaiting the Seminoles in the West Region's Sweet 16 is No. 1 seed Gonzaga, The Bulldogs routed Fairleigh Dickinson 87-49 and then took out No.9 seed Baylor 83-71. Gonzaga is making its FIFTH consecutive Sweet 16 appearance, the longest streak in the nation, one which includes a run to the 2017 national title game.Gonzaga will surely remember Florida State, as the Seminoles ended Gonzaga's 2018 season (as well as a 16-game winning streak) with a 75-60 upset in the Sweet 16 in Los Angeles during their surprising run to the Elite Eight last March. The Seminoles will again be without senior forward Phil Cofer (7.4), who besides battling a foot injury also lost his father, former NFL linebacker Mike Cofer, to a lengthy illness just before the win over the Racers. "I think that's why you saw our guys so focused," head coach Leonard Hamilton told reporters. "I think the night was in response to the respect we had for Murray State, but also the respect we had for Mr. Cofer." The 6-11 Mfiondu Kabengele(13.4 & 5.9) is FSU's leading scorer and comes off the bench (he's the ACC's Sixth Man of the Year). He scored a game-high 21 points in teh first round and then had 22 points, seven rebounds and three blocks in the win over Murray State. Senior guard Terance Mann (11.6 & 6.5) is joined by PG Forrest (9.0-4.4- 3.7) and Walker (7.5) to give FSU a solid guard trio. Cofer (7.4 & 3.5) will be missed but the 6-8 Gray (4.0 & 2.2) added 11 points agauinst Murray St. The 7-4 Koumadji (6.6 & 5.6 in just 15 MPG) can also not be overlooked. Gonzaga is loaded. The Zags have three likely first-round NBA picks up front including 6-8 junior forwards, Rui Hachimura (19.7 & 6.6), the West Coast Conference Player of the Year, and Brandon Clarke (17.0 & 8.4), the WCC Defensive Player of the Year, Both are likely lottery picks in June. Then there is Killian Tillie, a 6-10 junior forward who missed last year's loss to Florida State but will play this time around despite missing a good chunk of the season with ankle and foot injuries. He is averaging 6.7 & 4.1, while shooting 42.9 percent from three-point range off the bench. In the backcourt it's Zach Norvell Jr. (15.1 & 4.3) and PG Josh Perkins (10.8 & 6.3 APG). Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring offense (88.6), field goal percentage (53.2), scoring margin (23.8) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.76). Other than that, the Zags don't have match. The knee jerk reaction is to say "revenge" but FSU enters this contest having won 16 of its last 18, with the lone losses coming to No. 1 seeds Duke and North Carolina.Throw in the fact that FSU is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog in the Big Dance since 2009, so "laying it" could be dangerous to one's bankroll. That said, Mark Few WILL have his team ready for this game and this 'scoring machine' will get its share of points. As for FSU, this year's edition has also shown it can put points on the scoreboard, having averaged 75.4 PPG on the season, including 83.0 PPG in its first two NCAA games this year. This one's Goin' Over, Good luck...Larry |
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03-21-19 | Pistons v. Suns OVER 218 | Top | 118-98 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Total of the Week is on Det/Pho Over at 10:05 ET. The 36-34 Detroit Pistons are trying to secure the No. 6 spot in the Eastern Conference but they opened a five-game road trip with an 'ugly' 126-119 loss at the lowly Cleveland Cavs. The Pistons continue their road trip tonight in Phoenix, where they will take on the 17-55 Suns (Phoenix owns the West's worst record by 11 1/2 games). The Suns are heading for the draft lottery but had been playing better of late (6-4 run), before dropping a 116-101 decision at home to the Chicago Bulls on Monday. Detroit was coming off a home win over the Toronto Raptors when it suffered the letdown against the Cavaliers plus All-Star forward Blake Griffin (24.7-6.6-5.4) was given the night off to rest on Monday but he will be back against Phoenix. Detroit's defense was porous in Cleveland, as the Cavs shot 58.2 percent from the floor, as the Pistons matched a season high in regulation points allowed. Phoenix had won six of 10, capped by a 138-136 overtime triumph in New Orleans on Saturday, before opening a two-game homestand with a dud against the Bulls.It wasn't good news that SF Kelly Oubre Jr. (16.9 & 4.9 in his 40 games with the Suns) sat out Monday with a thumb injury and is listed as day-to-day. However, Booker (25.6-4.2-6.8) and Auton (16.4 & 10.3) will be on hand, for sure. Detroit enters this game just a half-game up on Brooklyn and 1 1/2 games up on Miami in a three-way battle for the 6, 7 & 8 seeds in the East. The Pistons will face West contenders Portland, Golden State and Denver in the final three stops of the trip, so to say the least, Detroit really needs a win at Phoenix. Expect Detroit to score here vs a Phoenix team allowing 118.7 PPG over its last six, as well 116.1 PPG on the season (27th) on 48.2% shooting (29th). Detroit scored 110 points or more in 12 of 14 games, before being held to 75 and 74 points in back-to-back games (Mar 11 & 13). However, Detroit enters this game having scored 111, 110 and 119 points in its last three. This contest has O-V-E-R written all over it! Good luck...Larry |
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03-08-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 233 | 105-122 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Total Oddsmakers Error is on the over Nuggets/Warriors (10:35 EST). These are two of the best teams in the West and in the entire league. Totals are always set high no matter who their opponents are, but neither has played to many high-scoring affairs of late. Both have been scuffling as well. Denver had lost three straight to Utah, New Orleans and San Antonio before then beating the Lakers, while the defending champs have lost five of their last eight, including a home blowout loss to the Celtics on Tuesday. Denver got 17 rebounds from Nikola Jokic and 23 points, four boards and five assist from Will Barton in the victory over the Lakers. Golden State got embarrassed last time out and I think it’ll be out to send a message here. I look for the Warriors to play with a “playoff like intensity” vs. this dangerous visiting side. So from an overall situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a “shootout” over a slower paced defensive battle. Additionally note that Denver has seen the total go over in both games it’s played in this season in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent of ten or more points, while Golden State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of five this year after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This number is low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-05-19 | Bulls v. Pacers UNDER 219 | Top | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the “under” Bulls/Pacers (7:05 EST). These teams have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I think that this one finally sets up as more of a defensive contest. The Bulls actually have the No. 1 offense in the league over the last ten games, averaging 120.8 points. Chicago was ravaged by injury before the season even started, but as the teams has gotten healthier, it’s started to show signs of promise for the future. Chicago played a home and home set with Atlanta and both games flew “over” the number. The first game was an epic triple OT classic win for the Bulls, before the Hawks then reciprocated in Chicago. The Bulls play with “triple revenge” here after dropping all three previous meetings with the Pacers. Indiana comes in desperate to break its current form of futility. The Pacers have lost three of their last four games as they could finally be feeling the absence of star Victor Oladipo in the line-up. The last thing Indiana will want to do is to turn this into a “track meet” with the young and hungry Bulls though. So with the home side looking to control the pace of this one, I’m absolutely expecting a lower-scoring defensive battle once it’s all said and done. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-02-19 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 233 | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* TOTAL is on the under Lakers/Suns (9:05 EST). Both teams comes in off losses. Both teams were let down horribly by their defenses. Phoenix lost 130-116 at home to New Orleans, while the Lakers’ tumble down the proverbial crapper continued with a lacklustre 131-120 setback at home to the Bucks. The Suns are out of the playoff picture, but if LeBron James has any hopes of reaching the post-season in his first year with the Lakers, he’s going to need to start his new big win streak starting immediately. James had 31 points in the loss to the Bucks on Friday, but the super star is clearly struggling since his groin injury a couple of weeks ago. Since the entire “Anthony Davis fiasco” went down, LA has struggled overall. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up as more of a defensive affair. Or at least I expect a lot of half court sets while on offense from each of these tired sides. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-02-19 | Baylor v. Kansas State OVER 126.5 | Top | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* (BIG 12) CONF. TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the over Baylor/K-State (8:00 EST). Two teams which normally focus on the defensive end of the floor collide on Saturday night, but I think this total will sneak above this lower number once it’s all said and done. Baylor enters on top form having won three straight, including a thrilling 84-83 win over Texas last time out. Mario Kegler led the way with 24 points and seven boars, while Devnonte Bandoo added 18 points. Overall Baylor averages 72.6 PPG. The Wildcats are looking to bounce back after a rough 64-49 loss to Kansas in their last outing. Kamu Stoked was a bright spot in a losing cause with 12 points and four assists. Overall the Wildcats average 65.9 PPG. K-State allows just 59.5 PPG, which is ranked fourth in the country, but I think the home side is going to be out to push the pace from start to finish in this one after such a lack lustre effort in its most recent beat down loss. This one sets up great from a situational stand point in my opinion, as I’m expecting each side to push the pace from start to finish. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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01-14-19 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 204.5 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Mem/Hou Over at 8:05 ET. Houston's James Harden extended his streak of 30-point games to 16 with 38 points on Sunday, tying Kobe Bryant for the most consecutive 30-point games since Wilt Chamberlain in 1964. However, he missed 16 of 17 three-pointers, as the Rockets blew a 12-point lead against the 19-24 Magic in a 116-109 setback. The 24-18 Rockets suffered their first defeat against a losing team since Dec 20,. Houston returns home tonight to face the 19-23 Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are in the midst of a challenging stretch that will see them follow up the trip to Houston with a home game against Milwaukee and then visits to Boston and Toronto. Memphis snapped a six-game slide with an impressive 96-86 win over San Antonio on Wednesday but then lost112-108 at Miami on Saturday. The Grizzlies continued their downward spiral on Saturday, blowing a 12-point, first-half lead in falling by four points at Miami. Memphis was coming off a season in which it went 22-60 but fashioned a surprising 12-5 start to the current one. However, that is now a distant memory, as Memphis has dropped 18 of 25 games since occupying first place in the Western Conference on Thanksgiving. The Grizzlies have posted a minus-8.6 net rating while losing seven of eight, a mark that would rank 28th in the NBA if extrapolated over this current season. PG Conley (20.2 & 6.2 APG) and center Gasol (15.7 & 8.6) continue to lead the way, while 6-11 rookie Jackson (13.4 & 4.6) has proven to be a solid draft pick. The 28-year-old JaMychal Green led the way in Saturday's loss with 24 points and 11 rebounds in only 22 minutes off the bench, his third double-digit effort on the boards in a span of four games. His role may increase after starting forward Kyle Anderson was lost to a sprained ankle. Green (10.7 & 6.8) is averaging 15 points and six rebounds in 22.5 minutes in two games against the Rockets this season, shooting 76.9 percent overall. Houston had excelled during a grueling 15-game stretch, going 12-3 from Dec 11 thru Jan 9 against mostly quality foes. The Rockets were seeking to avoid a letdown during a four-game respite against struggling opposition. Houston had no trouble in beating the Cavs 141-113 but they then fell apart down the stretch vs the Magic (Orlando closed on a 20-6 run). Now its' Memphis and 21-23 Brooklyn, next.Harden checks in at 34.2-6.2-8.8 and center Clint Capela at 17.6 & 12.6 (he's averaging 21.2 points and 13 rebounds in Jan). this month. Austin Rivers (13.4) scored a season-high 25 points on 10-of-14 shooting Sunday, making his seventh straight start while fellow guards Chris Paul and Eric Gordon are sidelined. Veteran Gerald Green (8.7) is averaging 13.8 PPG in the seven games that Gordon has missed. My first thought was to play Houston, as the Rockets are 11-1 SU at home since a Nov 28 loss to Dallas (lone defeat was against the 30-12 Bucks). However, this low over/under number has me playing the total. A "typical" Houston home game has averaged 225.8 PPG and during the Rockets' current 11-1 home run, Houston has averaged a whopping 119.3 points! Sure, Memphis ranks first in points allowed (102.7 per) and just 29th in scoring (101.0 per) but the last time the Grizzlies visited Houston, the Rockets won 113-101 (that would work here!). This total opened 203 and while it has jumped a few points, this one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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01-05-19 | Rockets v. Blazers OVER 216.5 | Top | 101-110 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Total of the Week is on Hou/Por Over at 10:05 ET. Portland fell 111-109 at home to the Thunder just last night and if it looks to avoid back-to-back losses, it’s going to have to have a “short memory” here facing the red hot Rockets, who come to the Pacific Northwest on a six-game win skein and with 11 wins in their last 12 outings, including a 135-134 overtime thriller at Golden State on Wednesday Houston rallied from a 20-point deficit in the third quarter to beat the Warriors. .Houston is still without Chris Paul, but the team is now finally firing on all cylinders after a slow start to the season. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 33.6 points and is riding a streak of five consecutive 40-point games, matching a feat accomplished only by Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson and Kobe Bryant in the past 50 years. Center Clint Capela is having a career season, averaging 17.2 points and 12.7 boards. The Blazers have been scuffling of late, going just 4-5 in their last nine after last night’s setback. The guard duo of Damian Lillard (26.6-4.6-5.8) and CJ McColum (21.1) lead the way, while Nurkic (14.9 & 10.4) continues to prove he's a quality NBA center. From a “situational” stand point, I think it sets up as a higher-scoring affair. Clearly the Rockets will be out to push the pace as they try to take advantage of a tired Blazers team. Portland figures to have to match Houston's pace, which point to a “shootout." This number is a little low, play the “over.” Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-18 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on the SA/Hou Under at 8:05 EST. The 18-15 Spurs are in Houston tonight to take on the 16-15 Rockets. The SA Spurs entered last night's home game with the T-wolves having won six of their last seven games without needing their front-line players late in those contests. San Antonio's last four wins had all been by 25 or more points. Make that SEVEN of eight wins, with FIVE in a row coming by 25 points or more, as San Antonio blasted Minnesota, 124-98! San Antonio coasted again on Friday, getting just 22 total points from top scorers DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, who entered with a combined average of 42.2 PPG. The Rockets last played on Thursday, when the team's five-game winning streak was snapped by the Heat, who won 101-99. More bad news came Houston's way as star PG Chris Paul strained his left hamstring in the loss at Miami. He is expected to miss at least two weeks. "It's definitely tough, because he's a big-time playmaker and ball handler for us," guard Eric Gordon told reporters. "In this offense you need all of the playmaking that you can have, and usually me, Chris, and James [Harden] have the ball in our hands trying to play-make for other people and provide good scoring." The Spurs are playing on back-to-back nights and have gone 0-5 in the last half of those recent back-to-backs. Also note that Houston is 0 -5 this season without Paul. This situation hardly seems to favor a high-scoring game. In fact, Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in 10 of its last 14 after playing a road game. Good luck...Larry |
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12-11-18 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Blazers/Rockets (8:05 EST). Portland comes in off a 113-105 home win over Minnesota, while Houston enters off a 107-104 road loss in Dallas. Houston is looking to break out of its early season slump and to avenge a 104-85 setback to the Blazers on October 30th. I’m expecting the home side to push the pace from start to finish and for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Portland’s won two straight. Overall the Blazers average 112.3 PPG and concede 110.4. Damian Lillard leads the nightly charge with 27.2 points and 6.4 assists per night. Houston averages 108.3 PPG and it concedes 109.7. James Harden leads the team with 30 points, 5.5 boards and 8.3 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Portland’s already seen the total go over the number in four of six on the road this season, while Houston has seen the total fly over in its last three following a loss by 14 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-18 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 219.5 | Top | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* TV Total Mismatch is the over Philly/Detroit (7:05 EST). Philly had its five-game win streak snapped in a tough 113-102 road loss in Toronto on Friday, while Detroit enters off a poor 115-92 road loss in Milwaukee. Both teams will be eager to return to form and as such, I’m expecting a wide-open run and gun shootout rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle. Detroit will be extra motivated here as well after back-to-back poor showings and to also avenge a 109-99 loss to the 76ers on November 3rd. Philly averages 113.7 PPG and it concedes 111.8. Big man Joel Embiid leads the way with 26.3 points, 13.3 boards and 1.96 blocks per game. Detroit averages 109.4 PPG and it concedes 109.5. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 24.9 points, 9.1 boards and five assists per night. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go over in 10 of its last 14 after playing to three or more straight “unders,” while Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in both games that it’s played in this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 237.5 | Top | 129-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* West-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under LA/NO (8:05 EST). What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s “run and gun” offense and very little defense. These are indeed two of the higher-scoring teams in the league, but each comes in off an exhausting game just last night. While these clubs normally play to “shootouts,” I think the overall conditions finally point to a lower-scoring defensive battle. LA plays with revenge here after falling 116-109 in the first meeting between the teams this year. The Clippers come in dejected off a 114-110 loss in Dallas on Monday, while the Pelicans return home contented after a 119-109 road win in Charlotte. After winning nine of their last ten, I think a predictable letdown is in store for the over-achieving Clippers in the second game of the back to back. New Orleans has been “hit or miss” all year as well, going just 5-6 in its last 11 overall, so a letdown after last night’s big win isn’t too difficult to imagine either. Additionally note that LA has seen the total go under the under in five of seven already this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent which scored 110 points or more in, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-18 | Clippers v. Hawks UNDER 229.5 | Top | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Clippers/Hawks (7:35 EST). The Hawks clearly can’t get into a “track meet” with the high-flying Clippers and expect to break their seven-game losing streak. With the home side putting an emphasis on trying to control the pace of this one, I think it’ll ultimately fall under this sky-high number once it’s all said and done. LA could be caught complacent here as well. Not many gave the Clippers hope this year, but LA enters on the heels of a four game win streak. Who would fault the Clippers for looking past their lowly non conference opponent in some small way today? The Clippers most recently beat the defensively inept Nets on Saturday, led by 16 points and ten boards from Montrezl Harrell in the fourth quarter alone. Jeremy Lin was a bright spot for Atlanta in the Hawks most recent loss to the Pacers, coming off the bench to score 16 points, grab four boards and dish out four assists. From a situational stand point I think it sets up nicely for an “under,” but also note that LA has seen the total go under in 20 of its last 33 following a three games or more unbeaten streak, while Atlanta has seen the total dip under in 12 of its last 18 after playing three consecutive road games. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-18 | Cavs v. Wizards UNDER 220 | Top | 95-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Total Of The Month is on the under Cavs/Wizards (7:05 EST). Cleveland comes in off a big win over the Hornets at home last night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable offensive letdown here from the under-manned and inconsistent Cavs. Washington enters off a much needed 117-109 win over Orlando and it’ll be out to control the tempo/pace of this one and punch another one into the win column. The Cavs are 27th in the league in scoring with an average of 103.3 PPG, but on the second game of the back to back, I have a hard time seeing Cleveland even reaching that mark. The defense is conceding 113.1 PPG, but it admittedly looked a lot better against the Hornets last night. The Wizards are averaging 111 PPG and they’re conceding 118.5. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success, but Washington has looked a lot better of late on both end of the court and I think the team carries that momentum over here. Note that the Cavs have interestingly already seen the total go “under” the number in six of seven vs. poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest, while the Wizards have seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 23 after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-18 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 223 | 124-114 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the (8*) under 76ers/Heat (7:35 EST). Philadelphia’s three-game win streak came to an end in a 116-112 OT setback in Memphis on Saturday. Miami is looking to get back to its winning ways as well after falling 116-110 at home to Washington on Saturday. Philly is just 1-6 ATS on the road this year. Overall the 76ers are averaging 111.9 PPG and conceding 112.9. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Joel Embiid is averaging 27.7 points and 13.1 boards per game. Miami is averaging 110.6 PPG and it’s conceding 110.6 as well. Once again, clearly this isn’t a recipe for success either. Goran Dragic leads the nightly charge with 16.1 points and 4.9 assists per night. Note though that Miami has seen the total go “under” in 13 of its last 20 after playing three consecutive home games, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in its last four games vs. teams with losing records. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-18 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 238 | Top | 116-122 | Push | 0 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Goin Under Total is the under Pelicans/Thunder (8:05 EST). The Pelicans started off strong, but they’ve since regressed. The Thunder were a mess to open the campaign, but they’ve been firing on all cylinders of late. Two teams moving in opposite direction collide and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. The Thunder have won four straight, most recently a 134-111 road win in Washington on Friday. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? New Orleans on the other hand is coming off five straight losses, most recently a 109-95 setback at San Antonio. Pelicans’ star Anthony Davis has recently commented about the pressure of having to play at such a high level every night to even give his team a chance to succeed. Davis had 17 points, eight boards, three assists and five blocks in the loss to the Spurs. OKC has definitely turned things around of late, but note that during its recent win skein it has in fact beaten just one opponent with a winning record. Russell Westbrook had 23 points, three boards and 12 assists in the win over Washington. I’ll point out that New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in 20 of its last 33 following a divisional contest, while OKC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 19 off an upset win as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-18 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 208 | Top | 88-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the Jazz/Nuggets over (9:05 EST). Utah enters off a listless 110-100 home loss to Memphis. Donovan Mitchell sat that one out and the Jazz looked poor on both ends of the floor. The high-flying Nuggets will look to take advantage and to get out and push the pace of this one from strait to finish. Denver enters off a 110-91 road victory over Cleveland. Utah though is averaging 114.3 PPG, while allowing 109.3. The Jazz have been one of the best defensive clubs in the league the last few years, but in the early going so far this season that hasn’t been the case. Note though that the over is 4-1 in Utah’s five road games. Denver is averaging 112.5 PPG and it’s allowing 103.6. Nikola Jokic leads the nightly charge with 19.4 points, ten boards and 6.6 assists. I’ll point out as well that Utah has seen the total go over the number in three of four this year against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while Denver has seen the total go over in 13 of its last 17 after a three games or more SU unbeaten streak. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-02-18 | Clippers v. Magic UNDER 217 | 120-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My 9* Down Under Total is the under Clippers/Magic (7:05 EST). What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s “run and gun” offense and very little defense. However, I think the conditions are right for more of a defensive affair this evening. The Clippers enter off a high-scoring 122-113 loss in Philadelphia just last night and I expect the team to come in with “heavy legs” in the second game of the back-to-back. The Magic will look to take advantage. Note that Orlando has lost seven straight in this series. The Magic come in having lost three straight overall and they’ll be desperate to reverse their fortunes with a solid defensive effort in my opinion. Note as well that LA has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 22 road games in the second game of a back to back in which it gave up more than 120 points and lost in the first. Additionally note that Orlando has seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 24 after a three games or more SU/ATS losing streak. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-18 | Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 227 | Top | 113-124 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the under Knicks/Bucks (8:05 EST). The Knicks come in off back-to-back losses to Boston and Brooklyn and they’d appear to be in over their heads here as well as New York soldiers forward to start the season without the services of offensive star Kristaps Porzingis. The Bucks come sin off victory over Indiana and Charlotte and they’ll look to dictate and control the pace of this one from the outset. Kevin Knox has come up big for the Knicks in back-to-back games with double digits in scoring off the bench, but he’d also suffer an ankle injury last time out. Tim Hardaway Jr. is now left to do the heavy lifting for an undermanned Knicks squad. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 26 points, 15 boards and six assists in the most recent win over Indiana for Milwaukee. The Bucks haven’t had any issues putting points on the board, but they’ll have an opportunity to pad their defensive stats as well tonight. I’ll point out as well that that New York has seen the total go under the number in 18 of its last 32 following a divisional contest, while Milwaukee has seen the total dip below the posted number in 23 of its last 38 following a victory by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-19-18 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 207 | 101-113 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP is on the “under” C’s/Raptors 8* (8:05 EST). Boston enters off a 104-87 win over the 76ers at home, while Toronto finished with a 116-104 home victory in its opener over Cleveland. Note that the home team prevailed in all four games last year, with Toronto take the final matchup 96-78 on April 4th. Boston didn’t play very well offensively against the 76ers though, shooting only 43.3 percent from the floor, including only 11 of 37 from range. It did force 16 turnovers though, while also holding Philadelphia to just 39.1 percent shooting and 5 of 26 from range. Jayson Tatum led the way with 23 points and nine boards. Toronto shot decently in its opening win (48.9 percent), but it would go just 14 of 33 from range and only 12 of 20 from the charity stripe. The Raptors did decisively control the boards by a 56-40 margin. Kyle Lowry led the way with 27 points and eight assists, while Kawhi Leonard put up 24 points and 12 boards. This is going to be a war each time these teams get together this year and I think the first one falls “under.” Good luck…Larry |
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10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 209 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under 76ers/Celtics. The 76ers improved by a whopping 24 victory from 16/17 to 17/18. After taking care of Miami in the first round, Philadelphia was then bounced from the second from these very Celtics. Philly averaged 109.8 PPG last year but if the 76ers hope to make a real push for the title, clearly they’ll have to get things figured out defensive after allowing an average of 105.3 PPG last year. Big man Joel Embiid led the way with 22.9 points, 11 boards and 1.76 blocks per game, while Ben Simmons added 15.8 points, 8.1 boards, 8.2 assists and 1.73 steals per game. Last year the Celtics averaged 104 PPG, while conceding just 100.4. Kyrie Irving led the way until he was injured with 24.4 points and 5.1 assists per game. Irving and Gordon Hayward are both at 100% health and the rest of the team (Marcus Smart, Al Horford and standout Jayson Tatum) remain. This one has the feel of an all “war” to me, rather than a wide-open All Star Game style of contest. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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