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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes Cincinnati has ALMOST won in both Seattle and Buffalo this year, but the team still comes to town 0-3. The Steelers are 0-3 as well and they’re dealing with significant injury, as QB Ben Roethlisberger The Steelers are down to backup Mason Rudolph, who I think will benefit greatly from playing at home this week. Andy Dalton has been the lone bright spot on the Bengals’ offense, as his line continues to be a weak point. The Bengals have also been poor in the secondary. The Steelers strength is on the defensive side and I think the unit is a difference maker in tonight’s contest. I’m also calling for a big day from RB James Conner, who to this point has been pretty quiet for Pittsburgh. The verdict: Throwing out the ATS stats for this one, and concentrating on the situation. I have a hard time seeing this Bengals offense mustering much of an attack in this hostile environment and I look for Conner to step up and deliver the goods; lay the short points! |
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09-29-19 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 38 | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the over Vikes/Bears. Two hungry division rivals collide on Saturday afternoon and I think that points are going to be plentiful. Chicago is 2-1 and the Vikes are 1-2. Both division rivals are equally as “hungry” for a victory here and I think it’s that sense of enormous focus and competition which will ultimately help in pushing this total above this very low number. Key Trends: - Minnesota is averaging 193.7 rushing yards per game, which is second in the league. - Chicago’s offense finally got untracked last week in the 31-15 road victory in the nation’s capital. The verdict: I think the Bears’ offense continues to progress and I believe the Vikes are going to be forced to match the pace of the home side tonight. This one has “shootout” written all over it in my opinion; play the over! |
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09-29-19 | Chargers v. Dolphins +16.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* play on the Miami Dolphins. Josh Rosen doesn’t have much to work with as the QB for the Miami Dolphins this year, but he’s not going to down without a fight this afternoon. Rosen and the Dolphins have absolutely nothing to lose. Miami is already looking ahead to next season after a rash of injuries de-railed its season. But more than anything I think the Chargers are vastly over-rated here. LA clearly has the better team on paper, but so far it’s been terrible to start the season with back-to-back losses. RB Melvin Gordon doesn’t come back to next week and I think LA’s struggling offense continues to sputter vs. this hungry home side. Key Trends: - LA is interestingly just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. - Miami is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. the AFC West (does this stat really matter? It certainly doesn’t hurt the Dolphins, that’s for sure!) The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, grab the points and expect a closer than predicted battle! |
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09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 84 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the over Eagles/Packers. So far every Thursday night NFL game has fallen well below the posted number. That includes on Opening Night as well when the Packers played. But I believe that trend finally changes this week, as I believe the desperate 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles will be out to push the pace from start to finish. Yes Green Bay’s defense has been fantastic to this point (allowing just 11.7 PPG thus far) and yes the Eagles have injuries on the offensive side of the ball, but I still don’t think that’s going to matter. Philadelphia’s season is on the line tonight and I expect Carson Wentz to open things up early and often. Of course, Green Bay has also looked fantastic on the offensive side of the ball this year and I think it’s balanced attack is going to run roughshod over this suspect Eagles’ defense. Key Trends: - Philly has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six road game when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. - Green Bay has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off a home victory by ten points or more. The verdict: Green Bay is desperate to move to 4-0 and the Eagles are desperate to avoid a 1-3 hole. This one has “shootout” written all over it! |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +4.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH is on the Washington Redskins. So far the Bears’ offense has looked terrible. The defense has been decent, but the level of competition to this point is suspect in my opinion. Washington comes in at 0-2 and desperate for a victory. The Redskins have been horrible defensively, but the offense has in fact been above average (24.0 PPG, ranked 10th). With their season on the line, I think the home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Chicago is 7-9 ATS on the road in its last 16. - The Bears are only 1-2 ATS in their last three after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. - Washington is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss vs. a division rival. The verdict: Washington QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and no INT’s. Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky has been bad overall this season, throwing for just 120 yards last week. I’m banking on the “hungrier” team getting the job done tonight; grab the points! |
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09-22-19 | Broncos v. Packers OVER 42.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the OVER Broncos/Packers. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring “shootout.” Denver is 0-2 and it’s defense has looked suspect. The offense has struggled as well. Joe Flacco and company won’t be holding anything back here though as they try to salvage their season and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole to open the season (no team in NFL history has won the Super Bowl after starting 0-3.) Green Bay has looked impressive on the defensive side of the ball during its 2-0 start, but I think the unit gets tested today by this now desperate Broncos team. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and company appear to be firing on all cylinders offensively early as well. As stated off the top, from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it. Key Trends: - Denver has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after scoring 14 points or less in its last game. - GB has seen the total soar over in its last four home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. The verdict: Expect a wide open affair from start to finish in this one; play the over! |
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09-22-19 | Bengals +7 v. Bills | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Cincinnati Bengals. I’m basing this pick primarily on the “situation.” Cincinnati is still without main WR AJ Green and the Bengals come to Buffalo desperate sitting at 0-2. The Bills enter content after their surprising 2-0 start and while Josh Allen has looked sharp so far for Buffalo, I’m unconvinced still to this point. Last week the Bengals ran into a red hot 49ers team, but they looked pretty good in their 21-20 loss in Seattle in Week 1. I expect another hard-fought battle in Buffalo vs. the over-achieving Bills. Key Trends: - The Bengals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog. - The Bills are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after a win by 14 points or more. The verdict: With their season on the line, I think the Bengals will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; grab the points! |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -123 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Titans. After Nick Foles went down with injury, the Jaguars hopes of a playoff berth went down the toilet too. Now 0-2 to open the year and down to backup Gardner Minshew under center, I believe that the Titans bounce back from their inexplicable 19-17 loss to the Colts last weekend. Back-to-back losses to divisional opponents, especially one which has so many injuries to key players (CB AJ Bouye, WR Marqise Lee, DE Yannick Ngakoue and LT Cam Robinson.) The Titans annihilated the Browns in Week 1 and I believe we’ll see a return to form here. Key Trends: - Tennessee is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss. - The Titans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after one or more straight losses. - The Jags are a poor 7-8 ATS in their last 15 at home. - Jacksonville is only 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a divisional contest. The verdict: I think the Titans are the better team in all three phases and I don’t see them looking past this opponent after last week’s “brain fart.” Lay the short points! |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets UNDER 45 | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Browns/Jets. Cleveland played terribly in Week 1. It’s first drive of the game looked brilliant, but then a penalty cost it a TD and the Browns settled for the FG to open things up. And after that it was all downhill, as several penalties resulted in 187 yards lost. At that point, Baker Mayfield and company were forced to play from behind and the dynamic back threw three picks. I don’t think that the Titans offense is as good as it looked in Week 1 and I don’t think that the Browns defense is as bad as it looked either. What we do know is that the Jets blew a 16 point lead late to the Bills and lost in Week 1. They also lost starting QB Sam Darnold to mono. These are two teams looking to limit mistakes and control the tempo. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that this one sets up as a lower-scoring battle. Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go under in its last four after allowing 35 points or more in its previous outing. - New York has seen the total go under in its last two off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, I expect this one to stay well below the posted number; play the under! |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -104 | 81 h 34 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Carolina Panthers. Bruce Arians is a good NFL head coach, but the Bucs are a bad team. TB QB Jameis Winston had 194 passing yards last week in his team’s 31-17 home loss to San Francisco, but he also had three INT’s, two of which were returned for a TD. The Bucs looked “OK” defensively, but it’s hard to truly judge facing San Francisco. The Panthers lost 30-27 to the Rams on Sunday, starting slowly and never able to recover. RB Christian McCaffrey had himself a day though, finishing with 128 rushing yards and two TD’s (also led the team with ten receptions.) Key Trends: - Tamp Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing at least 30 points in its previous game. The verdict: The short week always favors the home side and I definitely expect that to be the case on Thursday night. I don’t think Tampa’s offensive issues are going to suddenly fix themselves in such a short time and I do believe that the Panthers will play much better defensively this week. Lay the points with confidence! |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 245 h 55 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Houston Texans. Every team in the National Football League has “big” expectations heading into a new campaign, and these two clubs are no different. Houston finished with an 11-5 record a year ago, while the Saints lost a heart-breaker to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game under a controversial call. Note though that last year Mark Ingram had the second most rushing yards in the league for the Saints and he’s now gone to Baltimore. I think this effects the offense for the home side early this year. Key Trends: - New Orleans has dropped every season opener since 2014. - The Saints have lost their first home game in each of their last four seasons. The verdict: Both teams have new faces on both sides of the ball, but the situation and numbers point to a competitive battle in my opinion; grab the points! |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +7 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -137 | 222 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Year after year these two teams are always in the playoffs and making a serious run at the championship. New England more so than Pittsburgh of late. New England made a big acquisition in Antonio Brown on Saturday, but I think that’s going to be more of a distraction. The Super Bowl Champ has done well ATS in its first game back the following year, but I believe that trend finally comes to an end vs. this hungry visiting side. Pittsburgh hates AB and it hates New England. I think the “hungrier, hate filled” side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as an underdog (and 5-0 ATS its last five as a road dog). - New England is only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: I think Pittsburgh has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. That said, grab as many points as you can! |
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09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 215 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Falcons/Vikings. It’s a big game for both teams right out of the gate. Minnesota has a 19-11 all time lead in this series, which includes back-to-back victories, including 14-9 win in 2017. Both teams took big steps backwards last year, but each has big expectations heading into this season. While the offense stalled for Minnesota last year, the Vikings return ten starters on the defensive side of the ball to a unit which is once again expected to be one of the bed tin the league. Atlanta was plagued by injury last year. The Falcons’ offense isn’t in question ever with Matt Ryan running the show, but Atlanta’s success in 2019/20 will once again be decided on what its defense is capable of doing. Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 on the road. - Minnesota has seen the total go under in nine of its last 12 as a home favorite. The verdict: I can’t see the Vikes turning this into a “shootout” with Ryan and company, so I believe we’ll see a much more methodical pace from the home side. When you add up all of the above factors I believe that the under is definitely the correct call! |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Bears. Green Bay clearly has the best QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers, but the Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky isn’t that far behind. Rodgers has a new coach in Matt LaFleur and many new faces on the offensive side of the ball as well. The Packers can’t possibly be any worse on the defensive side of the ball after conceding 28 PPG last year, but the unit will have some chemistry issues as well in my opinion to open things up. And that leaves the door open for Chicago on Opening night. The Bears’ defense was tops in the NFL last year, allowing only 17.7 PPG and the entire unit is back and ready to prove that it wasn’t a fluke. The verdict: I love Rodgers and I think he’s going to put up big numbers this year. But Also think that Matt Nagy and the Bears have this game circled on their calendar since the end of last season; lay the points! |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 58 | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 324 h 18 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the “under” in the Super Bowl. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Underrated defensive units. With so much offensive fire-power, it’s easy to forget how well each team played defensively down the stretch in the playoffs. The Pats enter off a 37-31 win over KC, holding Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes to just 16 of 31 and sacking him four times. The Rams were forced by the Saints for 45 points in the first meeting between the clubs, but last week LA looked great defensively in its eventual 26-23 OT victory. Key Trends: - New England has seen the total go under the number in 11 of 17 as a favorite this year. - LA has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four off an upset win as a road dog. The verdict: Look for the two week lay off to benefit the defensive units and play the under in the Super Bowl! |
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01-20-19 | Patriots +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 147 h 50 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New England Patriots. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Experience and recent history. So far he Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been “phased” by anything this year. The young gunslinger fired 50 TD strikes this season. The Pats’ beat the Chiefs 43-40 at home and I think an upset is in the makings here as well. The experience that New England brings to the table in this situation, combined with the fact they’ve already proven it can beat the Chiefs are my “key angles” to this contest. Key Trends: - The Patriots are still 16-8 ATS their last 24 on the road. - New England is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. - The Chiefs are just 1-3 ATS in their last four in trying to revenge a very close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less. The verdict: I’m banking on Tom Brady advancing to another Super Bowl! |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints UNDER 57.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 143 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the under Rams/Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Improved defensive play from each team. The Rams beat a dangerous Cowboys team 30-22 last week. I’d argue that the LA defense “stole the show” in that one though. The Saints overcame a 14 point hole in the first quarter to edge past the Eagles last weekend. Drew Brees had 301 yards and two TD’s, but after the slow start, it was the Saints’ defense which “brought that one home” for the home side. The Rams will be committed to the run offensively after posting 273 rushing yards in last week’s win. Known for the high-flying offensive play in the regular season, this one has Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under the number in six of eight on the road already this year. - The Rams have seen the total dip under the number in four of their last five in revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 28 or more points (lost in Week 9 to the Saints.) - New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 as the favorite this year. - The Saints have seen the total go under in four of five already this year after allowing 14 points or less last game. The verdict: While the first matchup between these clubs flew over, this one has all the makings of a lower-scoring defensive battle this time around. Play the under! |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints -7.5 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history and scheduling. The Saints demolished the Eagles 48-7 in Week 11. The Eagles have been “on fire” since then, but I think they finally run out of gas here, only advancing to the divisional round because of a missed FG. Key Trends: - The Eagles are just 6-7 ATS in their last 12 as a road dog. - Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS in its last three “dome” games. - The Saints are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three following their “bye.” The verdict: Expect New Orleans to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points! |
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01-13-19 | Chargers +4.5 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -109 | 144 h 2 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Chargers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Revenge. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers is 0-7 lifetime vs. Tom Brady and the New England Patriots and that includes 0-2 in the playoffs (2008 and 2009). Rivers comes to Foxborough with his last, but best chance to finally avenge those setbacks. LA has a dominant run game and it’s defense looked sharp in last week’s big win over the Ravens. Key Trends: - LA is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year. - The Chargers are 8-1 ATS on the road this season. - New England is already 0-3 ATS thi shear after two straight wins by ten points or more. The verdict: Revenge is a dish best served cold. Grab the points, expect a battle to the end! |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -121 | 127 h 23 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Hot at the right time. Dallas enters the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the league. The Cowboys avoided a dangerous team last week in the Hawks and Russell Wilson, who put up his best numbers of his career. Dallas is on fire on both sides of the ball and I think it has a legitimate shot at stealing this one outright. Key Trends: - Dallas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. - The Cowboys are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more consecutive wins. - LA is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 after allowing 30 points or more in its last game. The verdict: As stated above, I think the outright is possible, but in the end I’ll grab the ample points! |
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01-12-19 | Colts +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -104 | 124 h 48 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Chiefs’ terrible defense. KC looked poor down the stretch, but it did break a two game slide with a win over the Raiders in Week 17 to earn the bye. KC is the highest scoring team in the league, but the Colts’ Andrew Luck is on fire right now and I don’t foresee him having any issues matching pace with the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes this afternoon. The difference is on the defensive side of the ball. The Colts have looked considerably better on that side of the ball all year, and especially of late. The Colts allow 21.5 on the year, while the Chiefs allow 26.3. Key Trends: - The Colts are a perfect 2-0 ATS this year off a road win vs. a division rival. - The Chiefs are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following a week off. - KC is a poor 1-2 ATS in its last three off a home blowout win of 21 points or more. The verdict: An outright victory is obviously not out of the cards, but in the end I’m grabbing what I believe to be a healthy amount of points! |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens UNDER 41.5 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 146 h 41 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the under Chargers/Ravens. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Ravens game-plan. With Melvin Gordon III injured for LA (if he does suit up, clearly he won’t be at 100% form), LA’s offensive game-plan becomes one-dimensional. The Ravens were among the league leaders in most defensive categories. They record a sack about once every eight plays and also have the fifth best opponents’ passer rating at 73.15. Baltimore also has as many INT’s as TD passes allowed (6). Baltimore will be looking to “manage” the game with LaMar Jackson while on offense, so as to limit Philip Rivers tie on the field of play. Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under in ten of its last 12 following a road victory. - Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 following a divisional contest. The verdict: The situation and numbers point to the under as the correct call! |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 22-24 | Win | 101 | 129 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Seahawks. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history. Lots has changed for both teams since Seattle beat the Cowboys at home 24-13 back on September 23rd and while Dallas has gotten significantly better on both sides of the ball since that setback, so too have the Seahawks. Seattle QB Russell Wilson had a superb season and he’s backed by one of the league’s No. 1 rushing units. Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliot finished with almost 1,500 yards rushing, but I think Wilson has the major advantage under center vs. Cowboys’ pivot Dak Prescott. I think this is a bad matchup for Dallas and the loss earlier in the year proves that. Key Trends: - Seattle is 3-1 ATS as a road dog this year. - The Hawks are interestingly 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the NFC East. - Dallas is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 off a division game. The verdict: Wilson is the correct call. Grab the points. |
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12-30-18 | Raiders +14.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -130 | 78 h 33 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Oakland Raiders. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history. Oakland lost 40-33 at home to KC earlier in the month and I expect it to put up a similar fight here. The Raiders come in off a commanding win over the Broncos, while the Chiefs enter having lost two straight. Key Trends: - The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home. - The Raiders are a perfect 2-0 ATS their last two off an ouse win by ten points or more as an underdog. The verdict: The Chiefs lock up the division with a win today, but their continued lack of defense keeps this one closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. |
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12-30-18 | Cowboys v. Giants OVER 41 | Top | 36-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the over Cowboys/Giants. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Manning’s last hurrah? If this is Eli Manning’s final game as QB for New York, he’s going to want to put on a show for the home side fans. Manning is also out to avenge a 20-13 road loss to Dallas in Week 2. With the Cowboys expected to rest most of their starters with nothing to win or lose here, I’m expecting the legendary New York pivot to air it out early and often. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go over in both games already this year in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. - The Giants have seen the total go over in five of their last seven as a home favorite. The verdict: The situation and trends are pointing to a shootout. Play the over. |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 35 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Raiders. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Final game for Raiders in Oakland Coliseum? If it is, David Carr and his patchwork team will want to make it a good one. The City of Oakland has filed a lawsuit against the team, which is expected to leave to Las Vegas in 2020: “Just raging in the Black Hole,” Raiders’ coach Jon Gruden said reminisced recently about his favorite Coliseum memories. “Rocking and raging down there after the Steeler game [last week], after a lot of wins over the years. Seeing a lot of the old highlights of great Raider teams, I get excited. I get emotional about it, and hopefully we get it all resolved so we can continue to play there. It’s a real football stadium,” he added. “It’s dirt, grass, it’s got tradition. It’s where some of the best games in the history of football have been played. I mean, there are a lot of things that have happened in that stadium and, uh, next question. I don’t want to start crying about a stadium.” Key Trends: - Denver is just 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year. - The Broncos are just 1-2 ATS in their last three MNF games. - Oakland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 30 points or more in its last game. The verdict: Grab the points and expect a nail-biter. |
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12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 92 h 35 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Can Clinch. Dallas had a chance to clinch the NFC East last weekend, but its momentum was derailed in a shutout loss to the Colts. The Cowboys can still claim that title with a win here today though and facing the Bucs who enter off consecutive setbacks to the Saints and Ravens. Key Trends: - Tampa Bay is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight following a loss. - Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home. - The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. the NFC. The verdict: A great situational play. Lay the points. |
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12-23-18 | Bills +14 v. Patriots | Top | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 92 h 34 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Buffalo Bills. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The role of spoiler. Buffalo won’t be making another appearance in the playoffs this season, but it’ll try to delay the Patriots winning the AFC East for at least another week. Never before in the last decade has Tom Brady and company looked more susceptible at this time of year. Key Trends: - Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a win by three points or less. - New England is still only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: The stage is set for a closer than expected battle, so grab the points! |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers -4 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the LA Chargers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Bigger aspirations and home field advantage. The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot, but they’re still neck and neck with the Chiefs for the best overall record. With a chance to end the Ravens playoff hopes, look for LA to pull away down the stretch in friendly confines. Key Trends: - Baltimore is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog of 3.5 to seven points. - The Ravens just 2-4 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. - LA is already 3-1 ATS this season off a division game. - The Chargers are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: As good as the Ravens are defensively, I can’t see them keeping pace with Rivers and company. Lay the points. |
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12-17-18 | Saints -6 v. Panthers | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Motivation levels. The Saints are 11-2 and control their own fate at this point. If they win out, they’ll earn top spot in the NFC due to the tie-breaker owned vs. the Rams. While Carolina still has a mathematical shot at a wild card berth, the Panthers have zero momentum whatsoever after suffering a fourth straight loss by one possession in last week’s 26-20 setback to the lowly Browns. Key Trends: - New Orleans is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. - The Saints are 6-1 ATS on the road this year. - Carolina is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 vs. division opponents. The verdict: Lay the points and expect a blowout. |
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12-16-18 | Dolphins v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 92 h 47 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the over Dolphins/Vikings. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Desperation. Both teams still have a shot at their respective Wild Card spots. It’s now or never as neither can take the foot off the gas at this point. I expect each to push the pace and this becomes my “key angle” for this contest. Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total go over in nine of 14 off a division game. - The Dolphins have seen the total go over in four of their last five off an upset win as a home underdog. - Minnesota has seen the total go over in three of its last four after a loss by 14 points or more. The verdict: Miami comes in off a thrilling last second win over the Patriots and I expect that offensive momentum to get carried over here. Play the over. |
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12-16-18 | Packers v. Bears -5.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 92 h 46 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Bears. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Revenge. Green Bay won the first meeting of the year 24-23. This is my “key angle” for this play. Key Trends: - Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS on the road. - The Packers are already 0-4 ATS this season after winning and covering in their previous game. - The Bears are already 4-0 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. The verdict: Lay the points, expect a rout. |
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12-15-18 | Browns +3 v. Broncos | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 75 h 24 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Cleveland Browns. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Role of spoiler. Cleveland is gunning for as many victories as possible after its winless campaign a year ago and it won’t be holding anything back today. If the Browns do win, they’ll be putting the final nail in the coffin to the Broncos’ season. This is my “key angle” to this game. Key Trends: - Cleveland is already 7-4 ATS this year as an underdog. - The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five after playing a home game. - The Broncos are only 5-7 ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite. - Denver is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 following a road loss. The verdict: Grab the points and expect a competitive fight until the end. |
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12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -126 | 53 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Chiefs. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history. The Chiefs have already beaten the Chargers 38-28 on the road back in Week 1. I think this is a tough match-up for LA and I think it’ll struggle again in this unfriendly stadium. Key Trends: - LA is just 2-4 ATS in its last six in revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. - Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. - The Chiefs are still 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. the division. The verdict: Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers is just 5-7 in his career at Arrowhead Stadium, including four straight losses there. With a win KC wraps up the AFC West title and with so much on the line, I expect it to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 46 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 36 h 0 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the under. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Game significance. Both teams currently hold the NFC wild card spot and each will be desperate for a victory here to hold onto that position. On the short week, this one has the feel of a classic lower-scoring “chess match” on Thursday night. Key Trends: - Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in 10 of its last 15 as an underdog. - Seattle has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 25 as a favorite. The verdict: Take the under. |
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12-09-18 | Colts v. Texans -4.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 7 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Houston Texans. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Home cooking and recent history. The Texans already beat the Colts 37-34 in OT in Week 4 in Indianapolis and I have a hard time seeing Andrew Luck and company keeping pace today in this hostile venue and after their 6-0 road loss to Jacksonville last week. Note that the Houston offense has scored a combined 63 points over its last two games. Key Trends: - Indianapolis is just 12-17 ATS in its last 29 as an underdog. - The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last five in revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. - Houston is already 3-1 ATS vs. the division. The verdict: Lay the points. |
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12-09-18 | Panthers v. Browns +2 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 117 h 6 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Cleveland Browns. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Role of spoiler. The Browns have an opportunity to end the Panthers season with a win in front of the home town crowd. With nothing to lose, I think Mayfield and company will at the very least take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Carolina is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 off an upset loss as a favorite. - Cleveland is 3-1 ATS already this season as a home dog. - The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a loss by 14 points or more. The verdict: Play on Cleveland. |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans UNDER 37.5 | Top | 9-30 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the under. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Common sense and recent history. These teams struggle with offensive consistency most weeks. Last week Jacksonville beat the Colts 6-0, while the Titans rallied for a 26-22 win over the Jets. When these teams played in Jacksonville earlier in the year, the Titans scored the low-scoring 9-6 victory. Expect these strong under trends to continue on the short week and on the National stage. Key Trends: - Jacksonville has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. - Tennessee has seen the total go dip under the number in all four games that it’s played in this year, after playing a home game. The verdict: Everything points to another battle. Play the under. |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles OVER 45 | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the over. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - It’s “do or die.” Motivation is the “key angle” for this play. An important divisional match-up sees both teams desperate for a win to keep its small playoff hopes alive. This one has “shootout” written all over it. Key Trends: - Washington has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points. - Philadelphia has seen the the total go over the number in ten of its last 15 vs. the division. - The Eagles have seen the total go over in nine of their last 15 following a home victory. The verdict: Play the over. |
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12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers UNDER 52 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the under Chargers/Steelers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - It’s a big game for both teams, with playoff positioning on the line. I believe the overall situation lends itself to a lower-scoring defensive battle and it’s my “key angle” for this selection. Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under in ten of its last 11 after having won four or five out of its last six games. - The Chargers have seen the total go under in seven of their last eight after a win by 14 points or more. - The Steelers have seen the total go under in nine of their last 14 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Play the under. |
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12-02-18 | Colts v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 144 h 9 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - It’s been a horrible year for the Jaguars, a season de-railed by injury and bad luck. Blake Bortles has been benched in favor of Cody Kessler and with nothing to lose, I think the home side keeps this one close until the final moments. The Colts have been playing at a very high level with Luck under center, but this is a spot that they’ve struggled in for bettors. Key Trends: - The Colts are just 3-5 ATS this year vs. the conference. - Indianapolis is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a home win. - The Jaguars are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: Jacksonville fights and takes it down to the wire. Grab the points. |
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11-29-18 | Saints -7 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 46 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - New Orleans is the hottest team in the league and a “letdown” at some point is inevitable. Or is it? The Saints have won ten straight and they’ll be looking to keep things rolling at they try to lock down the first round bye in the playoffs. This my “key angle” for this selection. Key Trends: - The Saints are 6-2 ATS as a favorite. - New Orleans is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 after two or more consecutive victories. - Dallas is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 off a division game. The verdict: Lay the points. |
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11-26-18 | Titans v. Texans -4 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 48 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Houston Texans. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Houston has a slim lead in the AFC South after last week’s win in Washington. Tennessee enters off a 38-10 loss in Indianapolis last weekend and another divisional contest on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track in my opinion. Divisional contests always mean the most and they almost always mean more to the home side. Home field advantage is my “key angle” in this contest. Key Trends: - Tennessee is just 9-14 ATS on the road in its last 23. - Houston is 6-3 ATS in its last nine trying to revenge a loss to an opponent. The verdict: Houston plays with revenge after falling 20-17 in Tennessee back in Week 2. That was then and this is now. Lay the points. |
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11-25-18 | Cardinals v. Chargers -12 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 79 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Chargers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Chargers lost to the Broncos at home last week, but the still have an opportunity to take a strangle hold on the Wild card spot with a win today. The Cards are down and out and already planning for next year. I expect a full four quarter effort for the Chargers after last week’s “dud.” Key Trends: - Arizona is just 4-7 ATS in its last 111 non-conference games. - The Cardinals are only 7-12 ATS in their last 19 on the road. - The Chargers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games coming off an ATS loss at home. The verdict: Lay the points. |
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11-25-18 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 53 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New York Jets. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - It’s hard to imagine Tom Brady and the Patriots “looking past” the Jets today, but that’s exactly what I’m expecting with a game at home against the Vikes up next. This is my “key angle” for this contest. Key Trends: - The Patriots are just 2-3 ATS in their last five following their bye week. - New England is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. - New York is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 7.5 to ten points range. The verdict: Grab the points. |
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11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints -13 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 106 | 78 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Two more wins and the Saints will lock up a first round bye in the playoffs. Key Trends: - The Falcons are just 1-3 ATS on the road. - Atlanta is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive losses. - The Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. teams with losing records. The verdict: Take New Orleans. |
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11-22-18 | Bears -4 v. Lions | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 70 h 43 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Chicago Bears. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The Bears already beat the Lions easily 34-22 at home. Chicago has won four straight and with a chance to put the Lions out of their misery after their upset win over the Panthers last weekend, I believe the defensive minded visitors drop the hammer on the national stage. Key Trends: - Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a favorite. - The Bears are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 vs. the division (including 3-0 ATS this season.) - Detroit is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight against the division. - The Lions are only 5-8 ATS in their last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: Take the Bears. |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams OVER 62 | Top | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 36 h 22 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the over. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - KC has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last 11 non-conference road games as an underdog in the 2.5 to 5.5 points range. - The Rams have seen the total go “over” in 15 of their last 25 non-conference home games as a favorite in the 2.5 to 5.5 points range. The verdict: These teams feature the two most explosive offenses from their respective conferences and neither can play a lick of defense. Play the over. |
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11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 45 | Top | 20-25 | Push | 0 | 59 h 21 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Minnesota has seen the total go under in nine of its last 13 as an underdog. - The Vikings have seen the total go under in eight of their last 12 following a divisional contest. - The Bears have seen the total go under in 12 of their last 20 at home. The verdict: This is an important game for both teams and the numbers and the overall situation point to the under as the correct move. |
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11-18-18 | Bucs v. Giants UNDER 52 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the under. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Tampa Bay has seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 15 following two or more SU losses. - New York has seen the total go under in eight of its last 13 vs. teams with losing records. - The Giants have seen the total go under in 13 of their last 20 at home. The verdict: Take the under. |
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11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 83 h 37 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Green Bay Packers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Green Bay is interestingly 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night games. - Seattle is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 at home. - The Seahawks are only 10-14 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite. The verdict: This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points. |
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11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers -3 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the 49ers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - New York has lost 12 of its last 13 dating back to last year. - San Francisco is 7-2 ATS in its last nine coming off a victory and holding its opponent to three points or less in doing so (won 34-3 over the Raiders last weekend) - The Giants are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following their bye and a three games or more unbeaten streak. The verdict: A week off isn’t going to help Eli Manning and company. Home field is the difference, take San Fran. |
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11-11-18 | Dolphins +10 v. Packers | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -115 | 132 h 52 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Dolphins: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. - The Packers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. - The Packers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in November. Verdict: Take Miami |
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10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings OVER 52 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -104 | 166 h 14 m | Show |
Ricky's 8* play on the Over 52: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Vikings defense is particularly significant. The Vikes ranked 2nd in the NFL versus the pass last year, and they rank 21st in the league coming into tonight's game versus the Saints. Key Trends: - The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. - The Over is 5-0 in Vikings last 5 versus a team with a winning record. - The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota. Verdict: Take OVER |
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10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -139 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -139 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Ravens: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the defense of the home team is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record. - The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. - The Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in total defense. Verdict: Take Baltimore |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 137 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* GOY play on the Chiefs: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Chiefs offense is particularly significant. KC is averaging an unbelievable 35 points per game so far. Key Trends: - The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. - The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. - The Chiefs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win. Verdict: Take KC |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 50 | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Over: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Seahawks defense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Over is 7-3 in Rams last 10 games overall. - The Over is 7-2 in Rams last 9 road games. - The Over is 6-1 in Rams last 7 games following a straight up win. Verdict: Take Over |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs UNDER 54 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 155 h 35 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Under 53.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the inflated line is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Under is 9-3 in Buccaneers last 12 home games. - The Under is 23-7 in Steelers last 30 road games. - The Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games following a straight up loss. Verdict: Take Under |
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09-23-18 | Colts v. Eagles -6 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -107 | 123 h 20 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Eagles: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. - The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. - The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Verdict: Take Philly |
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09-16-18 | Patriots -113 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -113 | 82 h 31 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Patriots: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Jags offense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Patriots are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games versus teams with a winning home record. - The Jaguars are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 2. - The Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games. Verdict: Take New England |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks v. Broncos -130 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 2455 h 1 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Broncos: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage in Denver is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September. - The Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. - The Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1. Verdict: Take Denver |
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02-04-18 | Eagles +5 v. Patriots | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 266 h 38 m | Show |
Super Bowl experience goes a long way and one could easily say the Patriots may win this game solely on that aspect, but at the same time the inexperience factor may actually help the Eagles to not overthink and to stick with what got them here in the first place. Nick Foles is competent enough at the QB position to not lose this game for the Eagles and therefore I see this playing out as a competitive game across offense, defense and special teams. I don't foresee either team running away with it because the Eagles have a very stout D which should keep them in the game regardless if the offense struggles, meanwhile the Patriots offense has the ability to keep them in the game if their defense struggles. Despite the obvious experience at the head coaching position with Bill Belichick, Eagles HC Doug Pederson is a real up and comer and very sharp in his own right. I expect both coaches to devise excellent game plans and adjust as necessary after half time. The Eagles will likely double Gronk and play man-to-man at every other position. I don't think they will blitz all that much, because D Lineman Cox is essentially a double man rush by himself and as long as the press man-to-man coverage + double team on Gronk it would only leave an open receiver somewhere. The Patriots coaching staff is smart enough to know this Eagles game plan may present itself and therefore I would expect them to practice and game plan against this themselves. Overall, I see this be a very competitive game and likely a field goal win on either side. Philadelphia Eagles +5 |
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01-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Eagles | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 27 m | Show |
This matchup is very interesting to me. First of all, let’s talk about the perception: The Eagles used their home field advantage, windy conditions and defense to beat an inefficient Falcons team 15-10 at home last week. Nick Foles didn’t get punished for bad throws and their defense did their job against laughable play-calling by Steve Sarkisian. I expected a close game and it was a solid win by the Eagles. But the perception on the Falcons was way too high which makes that win better than it was. Their run game got hyped, but it was basically just one solid drive. Overall, the Igglez had 3.0 yards per carry against a bad run defense. Nick Foles is a significant downgrade from Carson Wentz and the truth lies in the numbers over his sample size starting with the Giants game, the first game he was the starter. With Nick Foles, the Eagles offense produced 5.35 net yards per pass attempt which would rank 28th in the league, right ahead of the Colts, Browns, Packers and Ravens. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced 3.5 yards per carry which would rank 30th in the league, right ahead of the Lions and Cardinals. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced a 3rd down conversion rate of 30.2% which would rank 32nd in the league. Considering all that, they played vs the Giants, Raiders, Cowboys (3 drives) and the Falcons. The Vikings defense is way ahead of that bunch. The Vikings won against the Saints by a miracle. The truth is, the Vikings started off 17-0 and led the game for the first 57 minutes. One of the best offenses in the league took care of short fields and Drew Brees delivered some awesome throws against a tiring defense who lost their starting free safety. For the Saints getting a lead at any point during that game was almost a bigger miracle than the Diggs-touchdown at the end. The Vikes flat out dominated one of the best teams of 2017 for the major part of the game. The Vikings are the better team, period. The Eagles have been staying at home for a month now and I read a lot about how good their defense has been in their last four home games: 3 pts vs Bears, 10 pts vs Raiders, 6 pts vs Cowboys & 10 pts vs Falcons. The best offense of those four teams were the Falcons and they don’t really come close to the Vikings offense. Vikings OC Pat Shumur has implemented an efficient offense featuring two awesome WR's with great play-calling that just needs to be executed properly. Case Keenum does just that. This Vikings team presents a matchup the Eagles haven’t faced in weeks. The Eagles have a great offensive line, without a doubt. But it’s a different matchup than last week as the Vikings defense is a complete unit, provides great front four pressure, can stop the run and cover guys in space. The only weak spot on the Eagles line is LT Halapoulivaati Vaitai. He is going to line up against stud Everson Griffen and that’s a terrible matchup as Griffen is going to slide past Vaitai by speed and bull rushes. Vaitai just cannot handle him. That puts Nick Foles under consistent pressure from his blind side or forces Doug Pederson to double Griffen with a 6th OL, TE or RB. However he plays Griffen, it’s going to disrupt the Eagles’ gameplan a bit. Eagles are normally quite successful, but if they can’t run the ball efficiently on the Vikings front seven as I expect, Nick Foles is gonna be in a lot of long third down situations and that isn’t a good idea. The Vikings defense ranks 1st in third down conversion rate as they allow only 25% of third downs to be successful. On the flip side, the Vikings offense doesn’t have an easy matchup either. The Eagles have one of the best 4-3 defensive line in the league and they are going to win their fair share of matchups in the trenches against a Vikings offensive line that has been playing solid, but gave up a lot of pressures. Vikings will struggle to run and the Eagles will be able to move Keenum off his spot, but I give the Vikings a much better edge than the Eagles offense on the other side. Reason 1) Case Keenum’s 55.7% completion percentage under pressure has been the league’s best and his 10.7 sack conversion rate was the 2nd-best. Not only did Pat Shumur a good job with excellent scheming, Keenum also spent 2000+ plays in the virtual reality room, getting adjusted to every kind of situation / blitz / pressure and playing through all the plays again. Reports say that it helped him a lot. 2) The Vikings have maybe the best WR tandem in the league and they have a solid matchup against the Eagles CB's group. Shumur will put Keenum in pass-first situations and use the phenomenal quick route running of Diggs and the great ability to adjust at the catch point by Thielen to provide Keenum with a lot of quick options and also just 'throw it up' options. The Eagles defense will absolutely get their stops and they are also good to pick Case Keenum off, but the passing efficiency and the great opening drive scripts by Shumur might just be too overwhelming for them. The stadium is going to go nuts and the Philly crowd will bring the hammer with all the shepard masks. However, the weather conditions aren’t an advantage for the Eagles this time as weather reports call for 40°F and almost no winds. That favours the Vikings passing offense again. Nick Foles will struggle more than Case Keenum, the Vikings defense will create more stops and possibilities for turnovers. The Vikings offense should be able to score in the 20's and should stand much tougher with a lead than they did last week against the Saints. Vikings win this one and I am expecting a 24-13 kind of score. Minnesota Vikings -3 |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
Between their games vs Bills and Steelers, no one believed in the Jaguars. They were a better team than the Steelers in terms of efficiency and showed up big time at Pittsburgh. Now everyone believes in them again and Jalen Ramsey is already talking about the Super Bowl. It’s fascinating how the perception changes and the Jaguars are a prime example because their variance over the season has been extremely high. We saw a total of 97 points last Sunday but I am expecting a completely different game this time at Foxboro. A low scoring game. The Patriots defense got shredded the first six games, allowing 400+ yards in each of those. Since week 7, they allowed 400+ yards just once, at Pittsburgh. Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia did a great job adjusting their defense towards playing highly efficient. The Patriots defense ranks #1 in yards per point – they find ways to not lot opponents score. Since the game against the Panthers, they have given up 20+ points just twice in 13 games. Belichick knows how to attack opposing weaknesses and rob strengths. He will stack the box, play a lot of QB contain and will likely show a lot of cover 1 looks with man coverage. He will force Bortles to straight up beat them with his accuracy and I highly doubt that Bortles will be able to do that. He is at his best when playing off play-action behind an efficient run game and the Pats will try their best to shut down the run game. They held Derrick Henry to 2.3 yards per carry last week which made Mariota force a lot of throws. I don’t see the Jaguars offense scoring 20+ in this one, I see more field goals than touchdowns. The most interesting part is the flip side – Pats offense vs Jaguars defense. The Jaguars are at their best when they are lined up vs 3+ WR's. Teams like the Niners or Titans played a lot of 12 / 21 / 22 personnel against the Jaguars and were highly successful. The Patriots will know that. They won’t attack Bouye and Ramsey on the outside. They also don’t have WR's like Martavis Bryant or Antonio Brown who make great adjustments towards the catch point. I expect the Pats to look to run it up the gut and come out in a lot of 12 or 21 personnel with 2 WR's lining up outside and tie up Ramsey and Bouye. Then they are going to use a lot of pre-snap motions to identify coverages and find their matchups in the short passing game via Gronk, Burkhead, Lewis and White. Stretch the field, send Gronk down the seam and pick your matchups. With runs and short passes, the Pats are likely to control / eat the clock which is a huge bonus for a low scoring game. At the end it’s still the Jaguars defense with tremendous front-four pressure against an average offensive line so it’s not that I expect the Pats to score every drive. The Jaguars will make stops. But I also don’t see them going high-pace on offense. I really expect a low scoring affair with the Pats coaching staff dominating the matchup and Blake Bortles. It’s not that I do not see any chance of an upset, because the Jags have been a highly efficient team over the course of the season (equally efficient to the Pats). I think Pats at home should get it done in a low scoring affair. Under 46.5 *Update* Brady's injured finger boasts well for this pick. |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -4 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 95 h 37 m | Show |
I think Vikes are the slightly better overall team with a brutal defense and a good offensive system. Saints D has obviously been regressing quite a bit with those injuries and depth. Bucs and Panthers moved the ball pretty well on them through the air, but the Vikings have a better offense than both of them currently. Vikes got decent OL play, an average rushing attack (has regressed without Cook), but a very efficient passing attack. The X-factor obviously is Case Keenum, but Pat Shumur had two weeks to prepare his team with concepts to attack the Saints. Keenum is always good for an interception and that risk is higher than for Brees, but this offense is so well-designed and Diggs / Thielen are phenomenal pass-catchers who make adjustments to the ball, that Keenums mistakes are rarely punished. The Saints could and likely will sell out way more against the run to make Keenum beat them. Panthers were able to stop the run vs Saints and NO had their worst rushing output this year, but Panthers didn’t have the secondary to compete with the Saints. Vikings can stop the run and have the secondary. They have enough speed on their front seven to contain Kamara in space and their 3rd down / red zone defense is elite. I trust Mike Zimmer that he put together a lot of disguised coverages to rob the Saints of certain strengths on certain plays to make Brees uncomfortable. Vikes have not allowed more than 19 points all season long and that 19 was against the Saints. They won’t be able to shut down that offense, but I think the ceiling for the Saints is around 20 points in this one. Mike Zimmer with the Vikes is 30-4 SU and 31-2-1 ATS when his team scores 21+ points. Minny have one of the greatest home fields in the league, it’s gonna be very loud which might cause some flags. The Vikes have the defense to slow down a good offense and they have the offense to put up points. I lean the home side here at something like a 24-20 / 27-21 or even 28-17 game. Minnesota Vikings -4 |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 91 h 11 m | Show |
What’s going on with the Jaguars offense? Not that they ever were a unit to be afraid of with Blake Bottles at QB, but they had a very decent stretch where his weaknesses have been masked. During the last couple games, they showed complete regression, even worse than everything I could have expected. This is a top-5 offense vs the No. 1 defense so this matchup should be exciting. The Steelers will show the same gameplan on defense than the Bills: completely sell out vs the run and make Bortles beat them. From weeks 1-12, PIT D ranked 4th in yards per drive. Without Ryan Shazier who left early game 13, the Steelers rank just 29th and played offenses like BAL, CLE, HOU, (NE), CIN. That’s a huge loss and should actually do the Jags a favor. The Steelers had big issues in the first Jaguars game with poor play-calling. Overall, Haley looked lost a lot of times during the year that made the Steelers offense inefficient. The Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, so the battle in the trenches is gonna be highly interesting. The Jaguars should still find ways to force a lot of three and outs, because their personnel allows them to attack opponents in various ways. This game is going to be cold (°17 F) and likely ugly because both offenses want to avoid the opposing passing defense. If the Jaguars plays on an average level, I really like the touchdown + hook spread. Hackett might try a few long bombs (also off PA) at the very beginning to test the Steelers defense and keep them honest. Jaguars might be able to keep it close with their defense and they could have a decent shot if they can exploit the Shazier-less defense. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots OVER 47 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 23 m | Show |
Pats at home in the divisional round is usually a no-brainer: since their last loss vs the Jets in 2011, they went 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in that round. But this game is interesting because we don’t know which offense is gonna show up from Tennessee, Mularkey's or Mariota's. There were rumours that Mariota started calling the plays by his own since the 2nd quarter at Kansas City. The No-huddle up-tempo offense from shotgun is perfectly suited for Mariota, but Mularkey desperately wants to rely on his ground-and-pound approach. He wants to run the ball on 1st and 2nd down with DeMarco Murray and let Mariota make a precise pass on 3rd down from a tight formation. It’s not a surprise that Mariota has four game-winning drives this season because on game-winning drives he is put into an up-tempo offense from shotgun and can dictate the offense by himself. He is a very good pocket passer and showed that at Kansas City in “his” offense. I also believe that Derrick Henry is a better and more efficient runner than DeMarco Murray. The Mariota-offense is definitely capable of putting up points at New England, the Mularkey offense will be out coached from start to finish. New England has a highly efficient defense by yards per point – they somehow avoid being scored on. The Patriots’ front seven isn’t great and they are lacking speed. I think the Titans’ offensive line has a very solid matchup and a few Mariota runs could absolutely take care for some damage and first downs.The Chiefs offense showed a great gameplan in the first half against the Titans as they tried to avoid that good run defense (4th in YPC, 7th in DVOA) and moved the ball through the air. KC receivers had a few costly drops, otherwise they would have scored a TD more. The Patriots are going to do the same: pass the ball, avoid the opponent’s strength. They will pick their matchups and the zone blitz scheme by Dick LeBeau is generally something Tom Brady highly prefers to play against. I don’t think the Pats will have any troubles moving the ball through the air because there isn’t anything the Titans can throw at Brady IMO. If the Titans play Mariota-ball, they can be competitive in that game, but if they wake up too late, it could be over too soon. Patriots also don’t want to be the Chiefs all over again and they know that it’s hard to run the clock down vs the Titans so I expect them to look to score early and often. I think this game could end up in the 50's, because the Pats are capable to score 30+ and the Titans have a solid matchup as soon as they play Mariota ball and they should get garbage time opportunities in no-huddle mode if they lose in the fourth quarter. Over 47 |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 71 h 30 m | Show |
The Falcons defense has been the key as they played the run pretty aggressively and played tight against those Rams WR's. A couple of special teams turnovers helped for field position. I am expecting a close game at Philly in the divisional round. The Eagles obviously aren’t the same without Carson Wentz. Wentz is able to avoid 2-3 sacks/throwaways per game because of his crazy ability of scrambling away from pressure. I don’t think that offense is lost, but Foles is a downgrade from Wentz. With the way the Falcons are playing on defense right now, it’s tough for me to see the Eagles moving the ball efficiently. They must try to take pressure off Foles. They have to try to not win the game with him, but the rest has to work to let Foles deal with the last 20%. I trust Doug Pederson to put together a competitive offensive gameplan, but with Nick Foles, he will be somehow limited. On offense, Atlanta will have a big advantage against the Eagles secondary because their cornerbacks are the weak spot and Julio Jones should feast on them. Eagles have a stout defense with a great defensive line and they rank 7th in pass DVOA / 3rd in run DVOA, so we shouldn’t expect the Falcons to move the ball easily on the ground to grind it out like at Los Angeles. All season, the Falcons had their issues in key situations like red zone, as they only convert 50% of their trips into touchdowns for rank 23rd. I think both teams will struggle to score many points. If the Eagles play tough on defense, get the home crowd going and take pressure off of Foles by getting their running game going, they will be in a very good position to succeed, however the value lies on the total. Under 41.5 |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 45 m | Show |
Some people say it’s tough to beat a team three times a year. That situation occurred six times and the teams who won both previous matchups went 4-2. The Saints have dominated the Panthers twice this year for obvious reasons: they are much better in the single most important category: passing efficiency. Saints are 2nd in QBPR diff, Panthers are a horrendous 24th. The Panthers are an 8.5ish win team by Pythagorean. During their last six games they went 4-2, but in 3 of those 4 losses they were out gained in passing efficiency. They caught the Vikes in their 3rd straight road game and should have lost vs NYJ & TB. This matchup has the biggest discrepancy on my board. The Panthers will most likely get RG Trai Turner back which is huge for the offense, but they don’t have a decent passing attack. Over the second half of the season they have been leaning on the run game (Newton leads his team in rushing yards) and Christian McCaffrey in the short passing game. I don’t see how they stay within 7 in this matchup. Devin Funchess has emerged as their best WR, but he will be locked down by Marshon Lattimore. With Byrd going to IR, Newton doesn’t have options to throw to. The Saints can focus on Newton & Christian McCaffrey to force throws to Olsen or any WR. While the Panthers defense is decent, they seem not to figure out a plan to stop this Saints offense. To be competitive in this game they have to stop the Saints, but it’s a lot to ask for because that offense is so diverse: dominant run game, one of the most explosive RB in the passing game, Tedd Ginn to stretch the field and Michael Thomas who catches everything. It’s really tough to contain that offense who have scored 19+ every time this year. The Panthers need to create key turnovers and key stops to stay in this game, but I highly doubt it. Sean Payton will have his offense ready in the dome. As soon as the Panthers are behind they get forced to throw more often and that’s where Cam Newton will be limited with that kind of supporting cast he has. An efficient run game isn’t enough in the playoff. Saints should control the passing game on both sides of the ball and come up with a win of more than a touchdown here. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 115 h 5 m | Show |
The Jaguars were as a surprising team as the Rams. The defense has been playing historically well, especially their pass defense. Their run defense started as the worst early in the season, but got a significant boost when they traded for Marcell Dareus. Their pass defense is amazing – brutal front-four pressure combined with good coverage on the back end by Ramsey & Bouye and a linebacking corp that can cover a lot of ground. This is a textbook pass defense. Their offense is build to pound Fournette with a solid offensive line that had some injury issues during the season but is back healthy now. The pass offense has shown some flashes here and there with great route combinations, Allen Hurns and those speedy undrafted WR's. The Jaguars had some heavy regression the last two weeks (on the road though!) on either side of the ball, getting shredded by Jimmy and Shanahan and throwing lots of picks because they were forced the throw. The Jags want to play with a lead to make the life for Bortles as easy as possible. Fortunately, they can make his life very easy this week because they play against the Bills. The Bills don’t belong into the playoffs, period. They are a truly a 6-10 team. They have the highest difference in the league between pythagorean wins and actual wins. Obviously the one Peterman half was awful, but their D got shredded that game and Taylor took care of not losing so high. During the first half of the season they created a lot of key turnovers which led to wins over bad teams (Raiders, Bucs, Broncos) and they have that one underrated QB who consistently makes the best out of that bad offense. For raw stats guys: Taylor has 14 TD & 4 INT on the year. Sean McDermott lets his defense play very reactive with a zone-heavy scheme. That works well against not-so-good offenses, but they got killed by NO, LAC, NE (2x). Also the Bucs and Jets (2nd game) had a good one against that defense. Even though they are solid against the pass, they cannot defend the run to save their lives. This is a terrible matchup for them against a Jaguars offense that has a run-first approach, has a healthy offensive line and has Fournette back after sitting out a few games. Here is the game script: The Bills defense will struggle against the Jags’ run offense and as the game goes on, they will have to stack the box to not let the Jags run away with the lead and the clock. The Jaguars will jump a lead via defense, field position and their run game. As underrated as Taylor is, he cannot carry that offense against good defenses, because he doesn’t have any decent WR's (Kelvin Benjamin isn’t one), has a bad pass protection and the run game is bad because McCoy gets older, the offensive line is decimated and they don’t have an efficient Mike Gillislee in the rotation. The Jaguars can play the box with a high emphasis, because the Bills’ passing game will be non-efficient. It’s a complete mismatch for them. WR's and TE's will be locked down, McCoy is banged up and the Jaguars can even put a spy on Taylor because they don’t have to shade coverage to known QB-WR connections. I expect the Jaguars to completely shut down the Bills on offense and use short fields and Fournette to score a couple times in the first half and make Bortles comfortable and put him into some read-option and play action kind of plays that could lead to big gains. Jaguars are a top-5 playoff team by efficiency metrics and even Bortles cannot punish them this time. They are at home, first playoff game in years and they have the superior matchup against a team that should rather be 6-10 than 9-7. JAX have dominated bad teams this season and I expect them to do the same against the Bills. Jaguars will dominate this game from start to finish and I wouldn’t be surprised if they come close to a shutout. Jacksonville Jaguars -8 |
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01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams -6 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 36 m | Show |
The turnaround of the Los Angeles Rams has been fascinating. The offensive line is not elite, but they are good enough to execute Sean McVay's offense. McVay has made Todd Gurley the focus point of his offense (2100 scrimmage yards, 4.7 YPC, 60+ rec, 12.3 YPR, 19 total TD's) and has installed a scheme in which WR1 Sammy Watkins takes away the opponent’s best CB with coverage shades and allows guys like Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee and Todd Gurley to thrive by attacking certain coverage schemes with route combinations that are also relatively easy to read for Jared Goff. Goff hasn’t turned into an elite QB, but much more towards an average QB who executes a great scheme with great personnel (see Case Keenum in Minnesota). The most underrated aspect of McVay's work is that he understood that Tavon Austin is a bad WR with bad hands. Austin went from 107 targets & 44 punt returns in 2016 to 10 and 17 in 2017. McVay uses Pharoh Cooper as a punt returner and Austin as a runner (55 carries / 4.5 YPC) and more importantly as a threat to the run on end arounds. As soon as Austin fakes an end around, the opposing defense has to account for it, which opens up a little bit more space for runs and play-fakes. He took away every responsibility of Austin to catch passes. This offense is tough to defend for any defense. As a defense you need to provide Jared Goff with brutal front-four pressure and your front seven needs to be good against the run and quick in space. The Seahawks in week 5, the Redskins (highest pressure rate in the league; were healthy in week 2), the Vikings and the Jaguars were able to play like that and they had quite that success, turning into four losses for the Rams. The defense started very slow this year, adjusting to DC Wade Philips’ 3-4 formation and with Aaron Donald not practicing with the team until week 2, but they have been improving throughout the year I don’t think the Falcons are a true playoff team. They have a lot of close wins, could have / should have lost vs Bears, Hawks, Saints first game, Lions. They are the only team in the NFL this year that got a win when throwing 3 picks, and even better, they won two of them. Matt Ryan is having a crazy regression year, the offensive line isn’t as good as last year, other WR's other than Julio are regressing because they aren’t schemed open as they were under Shanny. The defense plays highly conservatively, trying to keep the offense in front of them. Each unit has some quality pieces, but as a whole they don’t really play highly efficient. Their defense has a bad matchup against one of the best offenses in the league. The Rams offensive line is going to win in the trenches and dictate the matchup for the better part of the game, which is very important for Jared Goff. McVay can make Gurley his focus point to get the defense account for him. This will open up the whole playbook and I expect the Rams to show us their arsenal. If the Falcons need to play Gurley, it will open up space and matchups for the TE's and WR's if Sammy Watkins draws coverage from Desmond Trufant. I expect the Rams to attack that defense on all levels of the field and move the ball downfield. If they don’t screw up red zone opportunities, it should be an easy day for the offense. The Falcons should make their priority attacking the ground game, but that can only work in a low scoring affair in which Atlanta controls the clock. Because I expect the Rams to score a lot, the Falcons might be forced to throw the ball too early. However, I expect Wade Philips and a well-rested top-5 Rams defense to come up with a good game plan to contain a Falcons offense that has been struggling in key situations throughout the season. Aaron Donald is going to line up against the Falcons guards who are absolutely the weak spots on that offensive line and he is going to wreck havoc. Rams have a superior offensive matchup and should have enough defensive quality and brain to match up well here. Rams roll, expecting something like a 34-21 kind of game. Los Angeles Rams -6 |
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12-31-17 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -9.5 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 16 m | Show |
Seahawks found life last week and I don’t see them dropping this one. They are the most dangerous team heading into the playoffs right now. Seattle has had major injuries mid-way through the season and struggled mightily because of it, but similar to the Patriots early in the season, very good coaching is able to find ways to mask those injuries after a couple of games - as long as they have a well implemented system in place. The Seahawks still have the 2nd best defense heading into the NFC postseason in my opinion. No reason to wait for the possibility of them getting in to make some money off them, as they should be able to slaughter Arizona here. The Cardinals will have a very hard time scoring in this matchup. Seattle rolls. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 |
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12-31-17 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 13 m | Show |
The Dolphins are a completely different animal at home where they are 4-2 SU (without London) and 5-1 ATS, beating opponents by 5 PPG. At home, they rank top-15 or even better in yards per pass diff and QBPR diff, just for instance. Adam Gase publicly called out his players, saying they are playing for their jobs the last two weeks. He also publicly said that he let owner Stephen Ross down. The reason is that they signed retired Jay Cutler to play QB, but that’s a different story. The Fins have a shot to play for their jobs and bring Stephen Ross a little smile by spoiling the Bills’ playoff hopes. Buffalo is also a different animal on the road where they are 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, losing by a whopping 8.9 PPG. I think the Dolphins will get it done, but I'll take the field goal insurance. Miami Dolphins +3 |
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12-31-17 | Saints -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
Saints are the toughest matchup the Bucs have faced in weeks and the Saints are playing for home field advantage in the wild card round. Bucs are without OJ Howard, refuse to involve Cameron Brate somehow and are likely without Desean Jackson again. That leaves Mike Evans against Marshon Lattimore and the latter dominated that matchup in the first game so much so that Evans got ejected for throwing a punch. Saints should roll here. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
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12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 90 h 60 m | Show |
Cousins is playing for a new contract and Gruden wants to end the season on a positive note after all the injuries. Giants went from a true playoff contender to a 2-13 team. However, the Giants come off a shutout loss on the road to play their last home game in front of their home fans. Will they show up? What happens to Eli Manning? Is it his last game and the team gets motivated to play for him? The Redskins defense is day and night in home/road. They give up the fewest yards per pass at home but the 3rd highest yards per pass on the road. Allowing the 2nd lowest QBPR at home, the 9th-highest on the road. I think there is a chance the Giants win straight up, but with more than a field goal insurance this is the safer play. New York Giants +3.5 |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 21-12 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 54 m | Show |
Zeke is back. The Cowboys offense will be back. The Seahawks defense won’t be back. Not only is the Hawks defense playing like a bottom-10 unit right now with all the injuries, they also seem to have some locker room issues and some clueless coaches. Earl Thomas publicly called out Bobby Wagner for playing limited through injury and Wagner responded harsh on Twitter. Pete Carroll didn’t have an excuse or explanation for not pulling Wilson out of the game. He looked clueless. It looks like he doesn’t have the fire right now and is a little bit disengaged. Now they travel to Dallas to play a Cowboys team that just got its sh*t together with Sean Lee back and is licking its chops with Zeke coming back. Zeke completely alters the offense and I think the Cowboys have a superior matchup for the Seahawks this week. Wagner needed to leave the game last week after not being able to run sideline to sideline so I can’t expect him to be ready to go this week. Bobby Wagner injured or not playing is a terrible loss, especially against a diverse offense as the Cowboys will be with Zeke back. The Hawks defense won’t be able to close out the space and they don’t have the corners to cover Dez Bryant in the red zone. The Boys will play away from Earl Thomas and try to exploit all the matchups in the short passing game and Dez in isolation. Seahawks won’t have any answers for that offense and I doubt they can play catch-up with that offensive line (DAL defense ranks 2nd in pressure rate) and without a running game. Wilson had one magic game and that’s about it. The Boys offense can impose its will and kill the clock in the second half to avoid any kind of Wilson magic. Seeing some kind of Boys win in the range of 31-17. Dallas Cowboys -4.5 |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars -4 v. 49ers | Top | 33-44 | Loss | -102 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
Jimmy Garoppolo this, Jimmy Garoppolo that. All I am hearing about the Niners is how Jimmy G is the savior of the Niners. Let’s sum up the last three weeks: Niners played the Bears, Texans and Titans. The best defense of the bunch is Chicago and that isn't saying much. The Niners barely won and scored five field goals for 15 points. The other two games were against the 18th and 22nd ranked defenses. Neither of these defenses were able to exploit the Niners’ weaknesses – their OL and WRs. Also neither of these offenses was able to score enough. Thanks Tennessee HC Mike Mularkey, the Niners had a chance to beat the Titans on Sunday. Kudos to Jimmy & Kyle Shanahan – they did a great job winning all three games and making the Niners offense look alive again. What you don’t see in the stats is Garoppolos passion for throwing passes straight to defenders. There were like 8 passes that could have been intercepted over the last two weeks but defenders just didn’t make a play – regression incoming. This week there is a completely different animal coming to town. The Jacksonville Jaguars are looking like the most complete AFC team right now. The defense has been playing in its own league and is putting up better passing efficiency than the 2013 Seahawks. Over their three-game winning stretch, the Niners have +1.0 net yards per play which ranks 6th. Over their three-game winning stretch, the Jaguars have +1.7 net yards per play which ranks 2nd. It took me a few weeks to get away from the “As long as Blake Bortles is the QB, that team is going nowhere” thinking. That offense looks as solid as it gets and they are very well coached. Last Sunday they were without their three best WR's and best RB and they steamrolled the Texans. OC Nathaniel Hackett is doing an awesome job, making Blake Bortles look comfortable. Over the course of the season, this offense ranks exactly average. Since week 7, Bortles has 12 passing TD's, 2 rushing TD's and 3 INT's. The most surprising aspect is how the offensive line has been performing. They rank 5th in adjusted sack rate, Bortles has a of time in the pocket. You already saw that in week 1 against a healthy Texans defense, Bortles was able to drink a beer in the pocket. During the season, Brandon Linder, Jeremy Parnell and Patrick Omameh all got injured and were missing time at some point. Now they are back in full strength and provide Bortles with a lot of clean pockets throwing to speedy WR's like Westbrook, Cole and Mickens running crossing patterns on great route combinations across the field. On these patterns, Bortles rarely has to throw with anticipation, he just needs his WR's to clear zones or run a yard away from their defenders to hit them in stride. He also has been throwing a few dots over the last few games. With the offense moving towards an average unit and Bortles looking good in a great system, this team is getting very scary, because they will get Fournette and Allen Robinson back at some point. The 49ers are no matchup for the Jaguars. We can argue the cross-country trip, but the Jaguars were resting starters in the fourth quarter last week and still play for a first round bye since the Steelers lost Antonio Brown and Ben is a bit limping. Jags hold the tiebreaker over PIT. As much as Shanahan will try to scheme guys open and put Garoppolo into a lot of quick release passes, it won’t be enough to move the ball on an historically great defense. That offensive line is going to get eaten alive and the Jaguars don’t need to respect the run or the pass either way. Sacksonville will be ready to roll throughout that game. On offense, the Jaguars will do enough again against the No. 29 ranked defense in weighed DVOA. This is men vs boys, Jaguars take this one home by 10+. |
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12-24-17 | Falcons v. Saints -5.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 112 h 31 m | Show |
I am regretting taking the Falcons on MNF. I really thought they are good enough to beat a Buccaneers team that is without several defensive key players comfortably, but they once again showed that they don’t have it this year. They were even out gained on a per-play base, by the Bucs! The Saints committed an unusual 3 turnovers against the Jets last Sunday (two in the red zone) and got a touchdown called back, but they out gained them pretty comfortably. Two weeks ago we took the Saints at Atlanta and we got victimized by a variance game. The Saints lost Alvin Kamara early on which completely altered their game and the Falcons survived with the help of the refs after throwing 3 INT's. The Saints out gained them by 0.6 yards per play. I have no doubt that they would have won the game without the injuries. They wanted to win the game at the end and threw a game-deciding pick instead of going to overtime. This time the Saints will nearly be in full strength, with a full week to prepare, in their personal early Super Bowl. There is such a big discrepancy in efficiency for the Falcons, I don’t see how they overcome that another time to keep this one close. They aren’t a playoff team in terms of efficiency. Atlanta is still bad against passes to RB and that’s where the Saints are going to hammer them all game long as they were supposed to do two weeks ago. On the very first drive, Kamara caught two passes for 29 yards before getting shredded to a concussion. Expect the full Kamara dose this week in a game that shouldn’t bounce the Falcons’ way as it did two weeks ago. New Orleans Saints -5.5 |
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12-24-17 | Rams -6.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 29 m | Show |
This one looks like a no-brainer, but I believe it is just one. There are light years between these two teams: offense, defense, special teams, coaching. Sean McVay is an awesome coach and already miles ahead of Mike Mularkey. The Rams already played two early east coast games this year and came out as winners. McVay will have his team ready to compete, so I am not expecting a letdown spot by any means. The only key for the Titans is playing Mularkey ball with Derrick Henry vs a questionable run D, but just as long as the Rams don’t pull away on the scoreboard. Mularkey still loves using Murray as his primary back even though Henry runs much more efficient. Against a bad Titans pass defense, I truly expect the Rams to pull away on the scoreboard via the pass and avoid a lot of runs against a good run D (McVay is smart) and then it doesn’t help the Titans to face a top-5 pass D with Wade Philips coaching vs. Mike Mularkey & Torry Robiskie. It also doesn’t help that Mariota is seriously injured and is considering ankle surgery in the off-season. The Titans have played a bottom-3 schedule on both sides of the ball in terms of efficiency and they played the easiest W/L-schedule. They have been trending downwards since week 3 and are only still in the playoffs because they barely beat teams like Browns, Colts and Texans without Watson. They played against two top-10 offenses, Steelers and Texans with Watson, and they conceded 40 and 50 defensive points. I expect Mularkey to lose the coaching battle easily and the Rams to put up 30+ points here to make another statement into the direction of the 3rd seed. Los Angeles Rams -6.5 |
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12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
A lot of injuries on the Atlanta defensive side (Gerald McCoy, Lavante David, +many others), combined with a true must win for Atlanta considering they have two tough games remaining (NO and CAR) and need to win two of the remaining three to make the playoffs. Despite the Falcons not looking like a Super Bowl contender this season, they are coming off 10 days rest I expect them to come out firing tonight. People are jumping on the touchdown dogs at home, but the real value 'aka the Sharp Side' lies in the visiting team. Atlanta Falcons -6.5 |
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12-17-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 37 m | Show |
*Barking Dog* Russell Wilson’s performance against the Eagles was a fluke. His mechanics are still bad, maybe he is secretly injured. He needs a whole lot of strength to loft balls deep instead of flipping it as he did his entire career. Turns out into bad accuracy with high variation. This time is the Rams’ best chance to beat the Seahawks as their defense is falling apart. No Chancellor, Sherman, Avril and now they lost Wagner and Wright last Sunday. Wagner was already banged up and this week he is going to be a game time decision but I highly doubt he is going to play. Wagner is the play-caller and probably the best LB in the league this year. Anticipation against run & play-action and zone discipline take a huge hit without him and that’s really bad against the Rams as Sean McVays offense is based on heavy play fakes to open up receivers in space and attack soft spots in certain zone concepts. With a thin defensive line, it’s gonna be real tough to generate consistent stops against the Rams that way. You can expect the Seahawks defense to offer certain space to Gurley & TEs underneath and without Sherman they don’t have the corners to match up with Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods who is likely returning this week. I expect the Rams to be able to score in the 20's this week and be very well prepared in a revenge game. The first time these two met in week 5, the Rams outgained the Seahawks 375 – 241 total yards and by an astonishing 1.6 yards per play. The key difference was that the Seahawks defense was healthy that time and held the Rams to 0/4 in the red zone. One red zone attempt was completely fluky because Gurley scored a touchdown and dropped the ball away for a touchdown. They also had a missed FG. So a score of 17-16 Rams would have mirrored the 60 minutes much better than 10-16. The Rams defense with getting Trumaine Johnson back should have enough power to overwhelm the Seahawks and they always had their number during the last couple seasons. Los Angeles Rams +2.5 (play down to -2.5 if necessary) |
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12-17-17 | Jets v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 19-31 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
*Top Total of the Week* The Jets are probably the worst road team in 2017. They are 1-5 SU away from home, getting outscored 14.5 – 24.8. Their lone win was at Cleveland in a game the Browns out gained them by around 200 yards and committed three turnovers inside the 5. Last week at Denver they were shut 0-23. And now with Josh McCown landing on the IR, the Jets will start Bryce Petty at QB this week – let me tell you this as a Jets fan: he is awful. Small sample size, but over 142 career passes he has a completion percentage of 54%, 3 TD, 7 INT and 5.8 YPA. The Jets aren’t going to move the ball at New Orleans, because the Saints won’t respect the pass and can stack the box heavily with Lattimore locking down Anderson or Kearse. The Saints’ offensive philosophy is to get a lead and sit on it by running down the clock and rest the arm of Drew Brees. As they are already preparing for the Falcons game next week which seems to be their personal Super Bowl, they won’t be interested in running up the score against the Jets. They will jump a lead and hand it off to Kamara/Ingram in the second half. Sustain drives as much as possible, keep a slow pace to keep offense and defense as fresh as possible. If you ask Sean Payton, he would sign a 10-7 win without injuries right now. I am seeing this game being played out similar to the Bucs/Saints game when the Bucs weren’t able to score and the Saints just took shots when given opportunities. Under 47 |
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12-16-17 | Chargers -1 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 43 m | Show |
If you had asked me before the season who is the better team in this one, I would have said Chargers. Ask me now and I scream Chargers! LAC is playing lights out right now, on offense and on defense. Their only weakness is red zone efficiency as they converted only 4 red zone trips out of 15 into touchdowns during the last three games. 26.6% would rank dead-last in the league over the course of a season. However, this number should regress to the mean (league average is 54%) sooner than later, for instance against the Chiefs’ 20th ranked red zone defense (56%). That’s the scary part – the Chargers were highly underachieving in that area of the field. But the interesting part is that they consistently put themselves into a position to score even a FG while their defense shuts opponents down. Since the Eagles game they have allowed an average of 13.9 defensive PPG. Despite all the early season struggles, their offense is really flying under the radar. Anthony Lynn has established a great scheme that creates open routes, quick options for Rivers and a lot of big play opportunities. In the first game between these two, the Chargers lost 10-24 in embarrassing fashion. They were 0-3 in turnovers and the Chiefs scored 17 points off three interceptions. It was a stretch when the Chiefs were red-hot and the Chargers were ice-cold. It was also the time when they haven’t figured out their offense yet, Keenan Allen was still rusty and Hunter Henry wasn’t involved in the offense. Now the situation is reversed – the Chargers are red-hot and playing like a true Super Bowl contender whereas the Chiefs lost 6 of their last 8 with two wins against the Broncos and the fraud team from Oakland. The Chargers are light years ahead of those two. Los Angeles is going to Arrowhead and should dominate this Chiefs squad from start to finish. Chiefs are sure to have some success via Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt on the ground, but I expect their WRs to be non-existent and the Chargers defend passes to RBs very well. Chiefs will struggle in the most important area – passing offense. Even if the Chiefs make it into the red zone, they have been struggling mightily in that area of the field and the Chargers defense ranks 2nd in red zone efficiency (38%) right after the Jaguars. The Chargers offense should move the ball pretty efficiently here as the Chiefs have a bad defense with a bad pass rush and a horrible track record vs WR1's. Keenan Allen is red-hot and should kill that secondary even with Marcus Peters back. Chargers win this one and put themselves into the AFC West lead. Los Angeles Chargers -1 |
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12-10-17 | Eagles +115 v. Rams | Top | 43-35 | Win | 115 | 118 h 29 m | Show |
*Barking Dog* This situation is equal to Saints/Rams in week 12. The Eagles (who are staying on the west coast) come off a loss in a horrible spot in which they were supposed to lose. The interesting part about SNF was that the Eagles didn’t play bad – in fact, I still believe they are a better team than Seattle. Philly outgained them by an astonishing 115 total yards, 0.4 yards per play, 5 first downs. They just got victimized by MVP caliber Russell Wilson and some bad luck (turnover at the goal line, crucial penalties). The Rams come off a game against a bad Cardinals team against which they were supposed to win. They won by 16 but the game was actually pretty even. The Rams got 7 points off an interception return TD and started on the ARI 23 for another touchdown. Their performance against the Cardinals wasn’t as good as the final score indicates. This week they get to face an Eagles team that will bring everything possible to the table after they lost at the right time. The Eagles also have a dream matchup for Goff and his offense. The Seahawks showed us how to beat the Eagles: get a little creative on first down, spread it out with quick passes along with some empty formations. Russell Wilson’s performance was so great because he was highly accurate and fit the ball quickly into tight windows and extended plays almost no one else is able to. Jared Goff cannot do that. The Rams offense relies on fooling opposing defenses with misdirection, play fakes and to get guys open behind a good pass protection where Goff’s rather slow process in the pocket doesn’t hurt. Goff needs wide open receivers or time by completely trusting his OL to hold up. The three nightmare matchups this year were against the Hawks, Jaguars and Vikings – three top-10 defenses that are able to generate crazy pressure by just sending their front four. The Rams scored 10, 16 and 7 points. In all three games they were pretty much shut down after their scripted opening drive. I truly expect the Eagles to do what those other defenses did – win the battle in the trenches, stop the run and force Goff to make tougher and quicker reads from condensed pockets. Eagles defense will show up big time in a great matchup. On the other side, the Philly offense is good enough to score on every defense. Like I said, on a different day they score 20+ on the Hawks. Their dominant offensive line and creative play-calling always dictates what the defense needs to do. Expecting a bounce back game with better luck than on SNF. Eagles win this one straight up. Philadelphia Eagles M/L (If you can find a +3 @ -115 or less take the field goal insurance, but otherwise play on the m/l). |
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12-10-17 | Seahawks +125 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
*Oddsmaker Error* The Jacksonville Jaguars are -2.5 to -3 favourites against the 'December' Seahawks, including 'December' Wilson. I think this is a clear oddsmakers error. Last Sunday the Seahawks offense finally played as I expected them to play before the season. If that performance wasn’t a fluke and Wilson is really back to his former self, the Hawks are going to make the NFC playoffs even more exciting. With the Seahawks there is something magical about that time of the year. Since 2012, the season Russell Wilson became the Seahawks QB, this team is 21-5 SU & 20-6 ATS between weeks 13 and 17 in the regular season, outscoring opponents 28-12.2. 3 ATS losses occured last season when they were playing without Earl Thomas who is hands down the most valuable defensive player in the league. They conceded 23, 34 and 38 points in those three games. Their 'December' record on the road is 9-2 ATS with both losses coming last year without Earl Thomas, they went 9-0 ATS from 2012-2015. I don’t know what drugs they take, but they kill teams late in the season. Defense took a few hits, but that’s still a good defense with a good starting front four, a great LB corps and Earl Thomas. The CBs are exploitable by good passing attacks (and that will most likely be their achilles in the playoffs), but that defense is still pretty good and well coached. The Jaguars aren’t going to move the ball efficiently on the Hawks and they don’t have the efficient passing attack to exploit that weakness. Seattle is going to bait Blake Bortles into mistakes. The Jaguars offense looked good against the #30 ranked pass defense by DVOA missing their best CB last Sunday but two weeks ago they just looked awful against a good Arizona defense. That ARI game should be the reference when analyzing this matchup. The Jaguars offensive line is completely banged up and will lose the trenches battle against Richardson, Bennett, Clark, Reed and Jones. Bortles is good for 1-2 picks and the running game is good for 4-5 TFL. If we see 'December' Wilson, it will be enough to benefit from the defensive effort and the Seahawks go 9-4. Wilson and the offense showed us the blueprint of how to beat a strong pass rush last SNF. Spread it out and hit precise passes quickly. The Hawks should do just that against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are laying 3 to the Seahawks. It’s the Jaguars against the Seahawks. Blake Bortles against Russell Mr. December Wilson. Let’s not overthink this. Seattle Seahawks moneyline (If you can find a +3 @ -115 or less take the field goal insurance, but otherwise play on the m/l) |
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12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +6 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 17 m | Show |
*Syndicate Steam* Finally the Giants got rid of HC Ben McAdoo. He did a great job from 2014-2015 as the OC, but since he has been the HC the offense has arguably been bottom three material. This season he lost everyone on the roster. The “team plays hard after the HC got fired” angle is one of my favourite. I truly expect the Giants to come out firing on both sides to destroy all playoffs hopes the Cowboys still have. I like Steve Spagnuolo as a DC and I believe he hasn’t had any discrepancies with the team – he will get them ready to roll. OC Mike Sullivan will try to get creative – it may not be enough to light up a bad Cowboys defense with Sean Lee back, but it should be enough to cover this game. The Cowboys destroyed the Redskins in prime time – atleast that’s what the final result says. But the truth is, the Redskins actually outgained them while losing by 24. More total yards, more yards per play, held Dak to 11/22 for 96 net yards passing, but they had 4 turnovers and the Cowboys had zero. Even the 4.3 YPC by the Cowboys weren’t anything special, but the Redskins weren’t able to generate key stops on the short fields they provided. We should have the same opinion on the Cowboys offense we had pre TNF – they aren’t good at all. The Giants’ defensive line around JPP, Vernon and Snacks is still able to win in the trenches and Spagnuolo always seems to be in Dak’s mind. In their three games with Dak against this Giants defense with Spag as the DC, the Cowboys haven’t topped 20 points. They scored 20, 10 and 19. If the Giants don’t lose the turnover battle by -4 as the Skins did I don’t see how the Cowboys get into the 20's here. If they don’t get into the 20's, the spread of +3.5 to +6 should be money. New York Giants +6 (this line is sure to move, play down to +3.5 if necessary) |
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12-07-17 | Saints +2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
The key to this game is a 21-year old CB who plays for the New Orleans Saints – Marshon Lattimore. If Lattimore plays this week (currently Questionable), he will shadow Julio which makes the job of Matt Ryan almost as uncomfortable as it was against the Vikes. The Saints defense in general isn’t as stout as the Vikings and the Falcons will be efficient on the ground, but taking away Julio allows the Saints defense to shift their attention to the other guys and to stack the box even more. Last Sunday, the Falcons were held to 9 points and 1/10 on third down. For the first seven weeks, the Falcons offense wasn’t efficient by any means. Steve Sarkisian basically didn’t know how to get that offense going. He didn’t involve Julio Jones enough. From week 8 to 12, this offense played differently. Sarkisian involved Julio a lot more on first down and deep passes which completely altered the offense. Per Warren Sharp, Julio was targeted 44% on first down and 66% deep (from 30%) between week 8 and 12. The offense was moving the ball much more efficiently and had a much easier job on third down when they got to it. All other WRs benefited from that. During that span, they faced NYJ, CAR, DAL, SEA & TB. NONE of these teams had a quality CB1 that was able to match up with Julio. Last Sunday, “Rhodes closed” was shadowing him and his stat line was 2-24-0 on 6 targets. This led to a worse first down efficiency than usual and the Falcons’ average distance to go on third down was 8.4 yards. It’s tough to move the sticks that way. Falcons should be able to put up points, but the Saints defense will generate some key stops. That brings us to the Falcons defense that looked to have a good day against the Vikings offense. Atlanta has a bottom-3 run defense but somehow managed to hold the Vikes to 3.4 yards per carry. However, the Saints and their two-headed monster Kamara/Ingram (fingers crossed Ingram can play as he is still Questionable) are still a different category and should move the ball all day on the Falcons front seven and their secondary doesn’t have enough firepower to consistently match up with all the Saints WRs without much help from the front four against a good NO pass protection. It should be noted that LG Andrus Peat is out for the Saints, however this was expected and backup Senio Kelemete will fill in. Kelemete is a 27 year old vet at 6'3" 300lbs, so I don't expect a huge drop in performance at LG. Also, LT Terron Armstead should be back. I love the Saints here with Lattimore playing and the Saints should get more key stops on defense which could lead to a 27-21 kind of win, but taking any kind of points here is a bonus. New Orleans Saints +2.5 (buy up to +3 if -115 or less) |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals +6 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This game presents itself as a great revenge opportunity for the Bengals and I expect them to take full advantage. Cincinnati looks to salvage their season (5W-6L; currently 3rd in AFCN) after winning two straight games and getting a dvision home primetime game against their rival Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have won 5 straight games over the Bengals and have won all games in Cincy dating back to 2013. The Steelers, winners of 6 straight games coming into tonight's matchup, come in to this game a little banged up with Antonio Brown being a game time decision. If he can't go that would be huge for the Bengals, however they'll still need to keep their eye on Martavis Bryant and the rest of the WR's who would fill in for AB. I expect a motivated performance on defense this evening by the Bengals after losing 29-14 in Pittsburgh earlier this year. Look for Atkins to provide a lot of pressure on an aging Roethisberger who doesn't seem to avoid back field tackles like he once did. Coming off a +100 yard performance on the ground, look for Joe Mixon to establish the run in order to set up a Dalton/Green combination down field. The Bengals may eventually shoot themselves in the foot like they've done a lot this year already, however we are getting substantial points at home for an important division game under the national spotlight and the line value is simply too much. They may lose in the end, but I expect them to compete and make it a close game. Cincinnati Bengals +6 (play down to +4.5) |
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12-03-17 | Vikings +3 v. Falcons | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
'Top Underdog of Week 13' The Minnesota Vikings are still not getting enough credit in my opinion. +3 at Atlanta means they would be even on a neutral field – disagree! The Vikings are the better team, playing better Football on both sides of the ball and all that against a stronger schedule. Purple Pain ranks 1st in my efficiency ranking and played the 4th-toughest efficiency schedule. I am missing quality wins from the Falcons this season. They had a quality win against the Packers who lost both their starting tackles in that game when I remember right. They lost vs the Bills, Dolphins and got killed by the Pats. They won a stinker against the Jets, so they aren’t far away from going 0-4 against the AFC East. They were dominant against the Cowboys without Zeke, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee. They won at Seattle by gaining less than 200 pass yards and less than 100 rush yards. Less than 5% of the teams since 1989 scored 30+ points in that scenario – the Falcons are one of them. They played a Bucs team that lost 3 offensive linemen along with their two best (Dotson & Marpet) and SS TJ Ward during the game, that was without their best cornerback (Hargreaves) and their best defensive end (Ayers). You cannot decide who you play, but you can decide how you play them and I am really missing quality wins from the Falcons. Games in which they really dominated a good opponent from start to finish. So now they are -3 favs against the Vikings? I expected that line to be around pk. The Falcons have a bad matchup against the top-teams in the NFC simply because of their defense. For the past two weeks I have been wondering they the good per-play efficiency of the Falcons doesn’t pass the eye test. They play a very conservative defense without a lot of blitzes. They want to limit big plays and keep the game in front of them. They limit big plays but they don’t efficiently shutting down opposing offenses. Last week the Bucs offense lost three starting linemen and still moved the ball on them. They turned the ball over in the Falcons red zone on 4th & 1 by throwing deep so they had a shot at scoring more than 20. That Vikings offensive line is gonna impose its will on them all game long. They are going to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant is in the concussion protocol and didn’t practice on Wednesday. If he is absent, Brian Poole and Robert Alford will play outside against arguably the best WR tandem in the NFL – Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. When Thielen plays in the slot, it’s Brian Poole or rookie safety Demontae Kazee on him – disaster. The Vikings should have no trouble posting 30+ points against the Falcons and make a huge statement. The Falcons offense is a bit overrated in my opinion and they are going to have problems moving the ball on one of the best defenses. With Matt Ryans interception-regression year I wouldn’t be surprised by 2 interceptions even though Case Keenum is also always good for one. Vikings should get a road win at Atlanta against a team that is overrated IMO and isn’t expected to compete with the NFC juggernauts. Vikings +3 |
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12-03-17 | Lions v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 101 h 32 m | Show |
'Top Fave of Week 13' I keep saying this: the Lions are the luckiest team in the NFL. The loss to the Vikes should have been a blowout, but they were gifted the TD drive right before halftime and got another TD when Stafford threw it up into double coverage. Vikes missed four points by kicking. A score of 34-17ish would have been closer to reality. Now they travel to Baltimore to play the No.1 ranked defense on the road in an open stadium. The Ravens defense also ranks 4th in scoring and 3rd in yards per play. This is going to be one heck of an away game for the Lions. It also doesn’t help that Stafford has a bad ankle when playing against that Ravens front seven. He said he should be good to go, but his ankle got rolled just 10 days ago and he desperately needs fluidity in his legs because he isn’t a really good pocket passer and needs his legs to create big plays out of structure. The Lions can’t run the ball (bottom-3 run offense), but play against a top-10 run defense. The Ravens will absolutely shut down the run game and find strategies to make Stafford uncomfortable and create short fields for the Ravens run game and their offensive MVP Justin Tucker. Another game with a +1 or higher turnover advantage for the Ravens wouldn’t surprise me at all. Seeing a 23-16 kind of game in favour of Baltimore. Ravens -2.5 (-3 fine too) |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 66 h 33 m | Show |
The Jets moved the ball pretty well against a top-10 defense last week (Panthers) and had some bad luck. Austin Seferian-Jenkins dropped the easiest TD he will catch in his entire career and another great TD grab was ruled incomplete which was weird. Both touchdown opportunities resulted in field goals. The Panthers had a fumble return touchdown and a special teams touchdown. The Jets actually outgained them by almost 100 total yards and 1.3 yards per play. Usually I think twice about taking a team late in the season that doesn’t play for the playoffs but this Jets team is a little bit different. Atleast that is what I read between the lines when listening to interviews. They are very young across the team and they are highly motivated. Todd Bowles gets them to play with passion. Before the season started, everyone (including myself) said they would be playing for the 1st overall pick and when you see them play, especially the defense, it seems they play with a chip on their shoulder. It isn’t enough to beat the better and way more experienced teams but they can play a lot of games close which they absolutely did. I don’t consider the Chiefs a good team right now and they come into this game in a downward spiral. I wasn’t high on them going into the season but they proved me wrong. Over the last few weeks they have finally been playing to how I expected them to play: bad defense, weak WR corps and a QB who produces great conservative stats but can’t rip coverages apart and prefers the screen pass everytime. The Chiefs surprised opposing defenses with their creative concepts early in the season. Defenses caught up and copied the Steelers gameplan – play zone, limit YAC and let Smith make reads from the pocket. Since the Raiders game on TNF, the Chiefs have scored an average of 14.5 offensive PPG in regulation and that includes the weird touchdown at the end of the first half at Dallas. Their defense didn’t look bad the last couple games because they played DEN, NYG and BUF. The current Jets offense is better than those three. Never expected I would say this but the Jets offense has a good matchup this week. The Jets will go run-first against the worst run defense in the league. I expect Forte and Powell to go off here because the Jets are one of the few teams that possess a reliable and respected deep threat – Robby Anderson is having a Pro Bowl season. He has a TD in each of the last five games. He is a great vertical receiver that can make adjustments at the catch point to catch tight window or off-target throws. The Chiefs have to account for that all the time on shot plays while also needing to send extra help into the box to boost a bad run defense. This is a simple numbers game and the Jets offense has a big advantage. The Chiefs have to rely on McCown mistakes here otherwise they are going to struggle to stop the Jets throughout major parts of the game. The Chiefs on offense don’t seem to do anything against a hard playing defense with two top-5 DROY candidates at FS and SS who are going to limit the Chiefs’ run and screen game. Jets should win this game and I will gladly take a +3. New York Jets +3.5 (+3 is fine) |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 117 h 54 m | Show |
The Rams are in a crazy bounce back spot – they come off one of the toughest games possible, a road game at Minnesota. They were supposed to lose. The perception of them shouldn’t change off that 7-24 loss – they were simply outplayed in terms of matchups. They were able to hang tough until the 2nd half, had a fumble at the goal line and at the end their defense just got worn out, because the Vikes ran 73 offensive plays which is way above average. The Rams played three times against top-10 defenses (JAX, SEA, MIN) and scored 16, 10 & 7 offensive points. All three of those teams were able to create a disrupting pass rush to make Jared Goff feel uncomfortable in the pocket. The Vikings also completely shut down the run game after the first Rams drive, which put Goff into a lot of long passing situations. Everson Griffen didn’t register a sack against Andrew Whitworth, but he was able to push the pocket very often, which also led to a sack by Danielle Hunter. Goff still isn’t the greatest passer – he needs confidence in his pocket and open receivers. When a defense is able to condense the pocket and close a lot of space (as Vikes did with their athletic LBs), he is forced to fit balls into tight windows and that’s something he struggles with. The Saints come off a crazy comeback-win on overtime and the media is praising them just as they already won the Super Bowl. After Jay Gruden gave the ball back with some terrible decisions, Drew Brees threw a pick on the final drive but it came back because of a flag – the Saints shouldn’t have won that game. New Orleans are on a 8-0 win streak, but their schedule during that stretch becomes more and more weaker. Their defense looked awesome, but they faced a lot of the weaker offenses in the league. Now dealing with injuries, this is the perfect letdown spot for them. Over their last 5 games, they had games vs the Packers, Bears, Bucs, Bills and Redskins. 3 of their last 4 were at home. The Redskins were the best offense they faced since week 2 and Washington moved the ball at will on them, especially after Marshon Lattimore went down. It’s not sure whether Lattimore will play this week. Not being able to play a snap with that bad ankle sounds pessimistic. Lattimore really has been the key to that defense, because he can shut down the outside WR and the defense can shade their remaining coverage over to the middle which closes more space for other receivers. But even with Lattimore, the Saints don’t have a good matchup against the Rams – if Watskins is covered, the Rams have enough playmakers to create matchup problems for the rest of the Saints defense. Another big advantage for the Rams will be the ability to run efficiently on the Saints run defense that ranks bottom-5. The Saints lost DE Alex Okafor which can be described as a big loss. He has been a force against the run, producing 10 TFL and the third-highest run stop percentage in the NFL. He also added 4.5 sacks. His backup – rookie Trey Hendrickson – has seen the field mostly as a pass rusher and needs to refine his game. He will be a major downgrade from Okafor and won’t be a threat to Andrew Whitworth. Taking away a good run defender from a bad run D isn’t a good idea. So Goff can simply ignore the left side of the pass rush and focus on hitting receivers in space on shorter downs than last week, because the Rams will be able to move the ball on the ground. I am expecting a big game by the offense and a good-enough game from the defense to seal a home win in a very good spot. Rams -2.5 |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 69 h 16 m | Show |
While the Chargers come off a 50-pt outing and the Cowboys got blown out by their divisional rival, the perception favours the Chargers and I agree with it. Zeke and Tyron Smith are the two most important offensive players along with Dak Prescott. Sean Lee is the most important defensive player. Missing those three would probably kill most teams in the league outside of Boston. I think Prescott still played as good as he possibly could, but the offense was simply over-matched by a good Eagles defense. We have two interesting coaching angles going for this game. Jason Garrett is the worst short-rest coach in the league at 2-14 ATS, while Anthony Lynn is a rookie head coach on a short week who comes off a big emotional win against his former team who didn’t want to have him as their head coach. While I cannot make many cases for the Cowboys as a side, I am making one for the total. The latter is simply too high. I expected it to be in the 44-45 range. I am struggling to see any of these teams scoring significantly north of 20. I expect the Chargers to come out a little bit flat after that huge win and Lynn not being capable of putting together a good offensive gameplan on a short week. Before playing against one of the current-worst defenses with a lot of short fields, they averaged 17.9 offensive PPG. DeMarcus Lawrence will be all over anyone who lines up at RT this week, forcing some throw aways by Rivers. I also believe that both teams are trying to attack the opposing defense on the ground which is gonna eat the clock. I think the Chargers’ ceiling in this game is in the low 20s. On the flip side, this Los Angeles defense is really good. Denzel Perryman being back helps that defense, but they are still vulnerable on the ground and that’s how the Cowboys are going to attack them, because their passing attack will be lost against this defense. In Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, the Chargers are in “charge” of the Los Angeles “Nippers” which will be all over La’el Collins and Byron Bell in pass protection. The pass offense won’t work and I think their ceiling is in the high 10s, around 17 to 20. 23-17, 20-16 likely scores. I am seeing a low scoring affair and that’s why I'm playing on the Under. |
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11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 85 h 26 m | Show |
The Detroit Lions are the luckiest team in the NFL. They won another game in which they were outgained in total yards and yards per play, but they got a defensive touchdown off a fumbled snap. They now lead the league with five defensive touchdowns. On their game-winning drive against the Bears, Matt Stafford threw a pick that was dropped and later Matt Prater hit a 52yd field goal. Then Mitch Trubisky converted a long 4th down with his legs before Connor Barth missed the game-tying field goal. The way this Lions team keeps winning games isn’t sustainable. In the first game against the Vikes, they benefited from 3 fumbles and the Dalvin Cook injury. They won the last three games against the Vikings in fluky fashion and I believe they cannot do it a fourth time. The Vikings are so much better than the Lions. They had to switch QBs, play with a backup QB, lost their RB threat (still the most rush yards on the team) and still went 8-2 on a solid schedule. Without Bradford getting injured, they might be 9-1 or even 10-0 to this point. They don’t get outgained by worse competition, they just easily beat them. IMO, the Vikes are one of the best overall teams in the NFL at this point. Before the season started, Matt Stafford was 5-46 SU against teams who finished the season with a winning record. If you think the Panthers, Vikes, Saints and Steelers finish with a winning record, he is now 6-49 SU and 6-50 considering the Falcons a winning team. I disagreed with the line opening at pickem and immediately took the Vikes. The line got bet up very quickly and is now much closer to where it should be. It wouldn’t surprise me if this line reached -3 come Thursday before we will see some buyback on the Lions. I think the Vikings will put a beating on the Lions this time and make a strong case for one of the two top-seeds in the NFC. Minnesota Vikings PK'em |
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11-19-17 | Eagles -4 v. Cowboys | Top | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show |
Last year the Eagles got slowed down by the bye week, but the Cowboys are in trouble and everyone should focus on their injury report. Without Sean Lee, this defense gets shredded and gives up more than 5 YPC. Without Tyron Smith, Prescott faces pressure all game long. Without Zeke, the offense misses an important element. If the Eagles play up to their strengths, they should roll the Cowboys. Eagles -4 |
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11-19-17 | Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 33-8 | Win | 100 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
Not only do I believe that the Pats are 6.5 points better than the Raiders, I also believe they show them what a real playoff team is. The Raiders come off their bye, but they stay at Oakland all week to prepare for the game. The Pats played in Denver in high elevation and they stay the week in Colorado Springs (6,000 ft) in the Air Force facility to prepare for the game in Mexico (7,200 ft). That’s very smart by Bill Belichick and a major advantage for New England. The Raiders prepare for the game at 43 ft elevation. The slow Pats defense held 6 of 9 teams to 20 points or less and the other three teams (KC, HOU, CAR) have QBs who can create plays with their legs and play in offenses that can create in space. The Raiders are a more static offense with a QB who doesn’t want to hold the ball. Belichick will have his defense ready – we might see a lot of three-men rushes. Raiders defense is no matchup for the Patriots and their No. 1 ranked offense. Pats should roll a minor opponent on a neutral field with good preparation. Pats -6.5 it is. Patriots -6.5 |
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11-19-17 | Rams v. Vikings -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 56 m | Show |
Despite the Rams 7-2 record, I am skeptical regarding the rest of the season. The Rams played a soft schedule thus far. Here are their wins: blowout vs Colts with Scott Tolzien, close shootout win vs Niners, close shootout win vs Cowboys, “quality win” vs Jaguars with two special teams scores, blowout vs Cards, blowout vs the Giants who quit, blowout vs a decimated Texans team with Tom Savage. Their two losses are against a healthy Redskins team and the Hawks. If we consider the Texans a bottom-10 team without Watson, the Rams have 5 wins vs bottom-10 teams and 2 wins vs Dallas and Jaguars (14 points by special teams). They were actually outgained by total yards and yards per play in both games. That isn’t too impressive, is it? Now they go to the Bank, one of the toughest places to play in the NFL right now. The Vikings defense is impressive and is something the Rams haven’t faced this year besides Seattle and Jacksonville. In those games, the Rams scored 10 and 13 offensive points. If you count the fumble touchback by Gurley, they scored 17 and 13 vs two top-10 defenses. Purple Pain has held every team at 19 points or below at home this year and they would be unbeaten if they didn’t fumble the ball away 3 times vs Detroit in the game Dalvin Cook got hurt. This is a complete challenge for the Rams and I expect them to struggle the same way they struggled against the Hawks and Jaguars. If you watch the Rams offense, one thing gets obvious: Jared Goff almost never needs to throw into tight windows/coverage as his receivers are just schemed wide-open and he has a lot of time in the pocket. Whitworth is going to play against the candidate for DPOY, Everson Griffen. Griffen won’t win a lot of matchups, but he will send more pressure from Goffs blind side than the QB is used to get in other games. On the other side, Danielle Hunter has an intriguing matchup against Rob Havenstein who still struggles a bit in pass protection. The run defense of Minnesota is really good as well as their red zone defense. Jared Goff will be forced to make much more difficult throws than usual. A great matchup for the Rams is Robert Woods vs Trae Waynes, but Goff still needs to throw with anticipation under pressure to exploit that certain matchup consistently and I don’t think he is able to do that. I am seeing an equal offensive output as they had vs Seattle and Jacksonville. Vikings should just score enough on offense to win that game on the back of their defense. Vikings -2 |
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11-19-17 | Ravens -2 v. Packers | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
This is a must-win game for the Ravens. They are 4-5 and one win away from the AFC wild card (Bills). Steelers, Patriots and Chiefs are too far away, Jaguars and Titans hold the tiebreaker against the Ravens. If they want to play in January, they gotta focus on the last wild card. They know that the Bills have a ceiling of 8-8/9-7 with games vs LAC, IND & MIA (2x) left. They simply have to win this game to put themselves into a good position for the wild card race. The Packers come off a surprising divisional win, whereas the Ravens are off their bye and have one day extra rest before the next game at Houston on Monday. John Harbaugh is one of the better post-bye coaches in the league, going 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS and winning by 8.9 PPG off a bye since being the HC in Baltimore. The final score in the Packers/Bears game last Sunday is a little bit misleading. The Bears missed Danny Trevathan badly against the run, they had bad tackling and produced stupid flags in the secondary which guided some big plays for GB and on top of that, they had a sure touchdown that Benny Cunningham fumbled into the end zone for a touchback. John Fox challenged the play and the touchback was the result. Without a challenge, they would have had the ball at the goal line. The Ravens live and die with their defense, but that should be enough to win here. The Ravens defense is stout on a very easy schedule. They have the ability to make below average offenses look bad. Their revamped secondary with Tony Jefferson, a healthy Jimmy Smith, rookie Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr has been playing very well. And Jimmy Smith just got much healthier during the bye, he missed lots of snaps over the last few games. NT Brandon Williams is arguably their most important player, but he was injured from weeks 3-6. This is a horrible matchup for a Packers offense that is bottom-10 material with Brett Hundley and just lost their leading RB Aaron Jones for 3-6 weeks and Ty Montgomery is banged up with a ribs injury. Even Hundley has a bad harmstring. Green Bay will struggle to run efficiently which sets up difficult passing situations for Hundley all game long. The Ravens secondary can just sit back and win their matchups against an average receiving corps. Mike McCarthy has shown us in 3 games that he can’t work out a game plan that maximizes the potential of his offense and surprises opposing defenses. He is completely dependent on Aaron Rodgers. I am seeing bad production and 2-3 turnovers by the Pack offense. This is a dream matchup for Baltimore. Yes the Ravens offense has struggled, however they are getting healthier and don’t face a good defense at Lambeau. Danny Woodhead comes back who is a nice addition in the short passing game, just for instance. Ravens have a lot of passes for negative yardage where Woodhead will help. Another key is that there are around 20 miles of winds expected on Sunday, so the game is going to be run-heavy and that’s where you love having the Ravens defense on your ticket. If their defense plays like they are supposed to do, the offense is going to have an easy job. The Ravens cannot afford to lose this game and I don’t believe they will. Ravens -2 |
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11-19-17 | Jaguars v. Browns UNDER 37.5 | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
From a numbers standpoint, Browns were the right side last week, but they beat themselves again. 6 red zone trips and they managed to lose by 14 – wow. That coaching staff seems to be inept, that’s why I stop playing them even though I lean them again this week. 7.5 points are too many in a good matchup. I played the Under, as I believe it’s a much better option this week. First of all, the weather forecast says it’s gonna be around 21 mph winds with as high as 25 mph. Games with 20+ mph of winds result in an average scoring total of 35. The weather condition that affects totals the most is wind, not rain or snow. In snow or rain, offenses aren’t forced to change their gameplan, because we pitches favor the offenses. It’s easier to change directions forwards than backwards or sidewards. Without wind, passes have the same velocity and trajectory in wet conditions as in dry conditions. Some coaches just think they need to run more in wet conditions. With wind it gets tricky and the magic number is 20mph. When you throw the ball in heavy winds, you cannot be as accurate as normal, because the force of the wind has such a high impact on the trajectory of the pass. A few inaccurate throws because of wind can kill drives. The first windy game of the year, CAR@TB, ended 17-3 and both QBs combined for 39/70 (55.7%) for 348 yds for 4.9 YPA when their season average is 61% and 62% completions and 6+ YPA. Last year’s game PIT@CLE was a wind game and ended 24-9. QBs combined for 44/77 343 yards, 4.5 YPA. With the Jaguars and Browns, we get a matchup that has a high probability of ending below 37.5 even without wind. The Jaguars have a phenomenal defense and improved against the run with the addition off Marcell Dareus. The Jaguars have a run-first offense with a bad matchup against the best run defense in the league. Take away the run and the Jaguars offense will be completely limited this Sunday. But so will be the Browns defense also, because they won’t move the ball on the Jaguars, no way. It wouldn’t surprise me if we didn’t see an offensive touchdown this week and the game ends somewhere around 17-12 with a defensive score. Loving the Under here. Under 37.5 |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 44 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
This is a matchup of two high-potential offenses with questionable defenses in a game with standard weather conditions. The Titans offense scores 24.9 PPG with Marcus Mariota as the starter which would rank 7th in the league (Matt Cassel started vs MIA). The Steelers defense ranks high by metrics and gives up only 15.2 PPG which ranks 2nd in the league. They seem to be much improved from last season, but they played an easy schedule and keep showing some big mistakes just like last week when corners blew their assignments in cover 2 and cover 3 on the long Colts touchdowns. Here are the offenses they have faced with their respective ranks in offensive scoring: Browns (29th), Vikings (6th) in their first game with Case Keenum, Bears (32nd), Ravens (27th), Jaguars (14th), Chiefs (5th), Bengals (30th), Lions (10th), Colts (24th). That’s not a tough schedule at all. Their defensive schedule ranks near last in the league in terms of strength. We can say they haven’t been tested a lot. This Titans offense is a tough challenge for this defense, especially since they give up 4.6 YPC (26th) on the 10th-toughest schedule. On an average schedule, the Steelers defense would probably give up around 17-20 PPG. The realistic ceiling for this Titans offense is 20-24 points at Pittsburgh. The production of the Steelers offense has been underwhelming, their 19.9 offensive PPG are far below expectations. With the personnel, they should be a 27ish PPG offense. But there is the same schedule-issue for the offense : they played a really tough schedule. Fortunately, they get to play one of the worse defenses in the league. The Titans recently played the Browns in a game in which they changed the QBs twice, the Ravens and Bengals, all three are bottom-five offenses in 2017. That’s why the perception is a little bit too high on them I guess. The Titans defense played an easy schedule and they rank 20th in scoring defense, giving up 22 defensive PPG. They aren’t good in stopping the run and their secondary is the weakest part. Logan Ryan, Adoree Jackson and LeShaun Sims can’t really match up with the Steelers – Pittsburgh should move the ball on the Titans. The ceiling for the Steelers is 24+ points in my opinion. I think if both teams run a lot without breakout runs and show red zone struggles, the score could stay below 44, but that scenario isn’t likely to me. I think the score should end atleast around 24-20 with potential for 35-24. This game should fly into the 50s. Over! Over 44 |
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