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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida v. Auburn -9.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -109 | 113 h 12 m | Show |
If Auburn runs their offense and doesn’t cough it up with turnovers it seems likely they get well into the 40's. Auburn had the #25 offense in the FBS and were #22 rushing. The passing attack did not pick up tons of yards, but they were very efficient (#10 FBS) with QB J Stidham throwing 17 TD's and just 4 INT's at 8.6 yards per attempt. Sure, there is a lot of short stuff, but they can bomb away once the run gets established. WR Ryan Davis grabbed 76 passes and WR Darius Slayton averaged 24 yards per grab. RB Kerryon Johnson had eight 100-yard rushing games. He was banged up near the end of the season and still almost led them to an SEC title. He is good to go for this game. Just to give you a frame of reference for how impressive the Auburn offense was – they played 6 games against top 12 defenses. Alabama, Georgia x 2, Clemson, Mississippi St and LSU. The Knights finished up the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record. The issue however isn't their offense, it's the defense. They were #93 ranked defense. They are ranked #81 in yards per play defense and #77 on 3rd downs. They do not get adequate D-Line push (#92 sacks per game; #79 TFL per game) and should not provide much resistance to Auburn if the Tigers play up to expectations. Note: their starting LT is out. Auburn is by far the sternest test of the season. Auburn has the #13 defense in the FBS and they are sound vs the run and the pass. They are also #3 in the SEC in sacks per game and can get to the quarter back with only four guys. They are excellent on 3rd downs (#18 FBS). The Tigers should be able to limit long drives and just need to limit the number of big plays. This feels like a game Auburn should win quite easily. Their offense has potential to explode and the defense will get enough stops. I am going to roll with the team that happened to beat Georgia and Alabama. Auburn -9.5 |
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12-31-17 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -9.5 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 16 m | Show |
Seahawks found life last week and I don’t see them dropping this one. They are the most dangerous team heading into the playoffs right now. Seattle has had major injuries mid-way through the season and struggled mightily because of it, but similar to the Patriots early in the season, very good coaching is able to find ways to mask those injuries after a couple of games - as long as they have a well implemented system in place. The Seahawks still have the 2nd best defense heading into the NFC postseason in my opinion. No reason to wait for the possibility of them getting in to make some money off them, as they should be able to slaughter Arizona here. The Cardinals will have a very hard time scoring in this matchup. Seattle rolls. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 |
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12-31-17 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 13 m | Show |
The Dolphins are a completely different animal at home where they are 4-2 SU (without London) and 5-1 ATS, beating opponents by 5 PPG. At home, they rank top-15 or even better in yards per pass diff and QBPR diff, just for instance. Adam Gase publicly called out his players, saying they are playing for their jobs the last two weeks. He also publicly said that he let owner Stephen Ross down. The reason is that they signed retired Jay Cutler to play QB, but that’s a different story. The Fins have a shot to play for their jobs and bring Stephen Ross a little smile by spoiling the Bills’ playoff hopes. Buffalo is also a different animal on the road where they are 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, losing by a whopping 8.9 PPG. I think the Dolphins will get it done, but I'll take the field goal insurance. Miami Dolphins +3 |
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12-31-17 | Saints -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
Saints are the toughest matchup the Bucs have faced in weeks and the Saints are playing for home field advantage in the wild card round. Bucs are without OJ Howard, refuse to involve Cameron Brate somehow and are likely without Desean Jackson again. That leaves Mike Evans against Marshon Lattimore and the latter dominated that matchup in the first game so much so that Evans got ejected for throwing a punch. Saints should roll here. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
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12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 90 h 60 m | Show |
Cousins is playing for a new contract and Gruden wants to end the season on a positive note after all the injuries. Giants went from a true playoff contender to a 2-13 team. However, the Giants come off a shutout loss on the road to play their last home game in front of their home fans. Will they show up? What happens to Eli Manning? Is it his last game and the team gets motivated to play for him? The Redskins defense is day and night in home/road. They give up the fewest yards per pass at home but the 3rd highest yards per pass on the road. Allowing the 2nd lowest QBPR at home, the 9th-highest on the road. I think there is a chance the Giants win straight up, but with more than a field goal insurance this is the safer play. New York Giants +3.5 |
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12-30-17 | Washington v. Penn State -1.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Penn State have a really balanced attack and will face a stern challenge on Saturday. They boast two of the best players in college football in QB Trace McSorley (3,228, 26-8 TD to INT; 11 rushing TDs) and RB Saquon Barkley (1,134 rushing yards, 16 TD; 47 receptions). They also have a solid WR group and deadly receiving TE in Mike Gesicki (9 TDs). Four players have 500+ receiving yards. The big issue has been the offensive line. They were dead LAST in the Big 10 in TFL allowed per game and Barkley was really bottled up when facing elite defenses. Washington may fall into that category as they are the #1 run defense in the FBS and #5 defense overall. The Huskies can bring pressure (38 sacks) and Penn St will have to establish the run and stay out of 3rd and long. An offense with all kinds of weapons and Mayfield Jr at QB going up against a rock solid stop unit. The Huskies are not as deep on offense, but they still have the necessary trio to make things work. QB Jake Browning is smart and accurate (69% completions; 5 INT), Myles Gaskin is a true #1 RB (1,282 rushing yards, 19 TD) and Dante Pettis had over 700 yards receiving. Penn St also boasts a solid defense (#7 scoring FBS) that can get after the QB (38 sacks) and make stops on 3rd downs. A huge key to this game is the ability of Washington to run the football on the #15 rushing defense. Penn St has the ability to make things work in the passing game if the run game is not working. The Huskies will need Gaskin to keep the chains moving and give Browning time to hit plays downfield. It was a tough loss in the Rose Bowl last season for Penn. They should be jacked up to win on a big stage against a 10-win team. Barkley decided to play in this game and that has to give the troops a boost. I am going to roll with the team that faced three really good defenses (Ohio St, Michigan, Sparty) and managed to score 38,24 and 41 points). I prefer the variety of weapons on the Penn St side and the mobility at QB. I am also skeptical of the schedule that Washington faced and are particularly concerned given the way the PAC 12 has crapped the bed in bowl games so far (UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon, Washington St). The Big 10 has looked good so far (Purdue, Sparty, Iowa, Northwestern. Penn St just needs to avoid a lot of negative plays to win this game by 7+. Penn State -1.5 |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Washington State | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 240 h 15 m | Show |
The Cougers will be without their top-2 WR for this game as both have left the team. They have depth in the group, but it probably cannot be a good thing to be without your two most productive receivers (combined for 14/35 of teams TD receptions). The running game is pretty much non-existent (#128 FBS) and they were also dead last in the PAC 12 in sacks per game allowed. Falk is a fine QB, but has the mobility of a glacier. They have to get the ball out quick to their talented guys and let the big plays happen. Michigan St’s defense is very good (#9 FBS, #5 vs run, #13 pass efficiency defense). The Michigan St run D has been really good against all, but elite rushing teams and it feels as though Washington St will need a premium day from Falk to win this affair. QB Brian Lewerke can play and he has an underrated group of WR's with which to work with. He also has some good mobility (#2 team in rushing; 5 rushing TD's) which is handy for keeping drives alive. Lewerke makes mistakes and has issues with accuracy sometimes, but he is more than capable of having a good game against a tough defense. The running game has been a bit of a disappointment, but LJ Scott can do some damage if he gets going early in the contest. Washington St was very good against the pass and decent enough vs the run this year although they did allow 23 rushing TDs. The Spartans should be able to have a balanced attack. Sparty has to figure out a way to consistently win 1st and 2nd down. It will help that Cougers’ star DL Mata’afa is suspended for the first half due to a targeting violation. Both defenses are good enough to win games by themselves, but I prefer the balance on the offensive side of the ball for Michigan St. I also give the edge in the Head Coach department to Dantonio. He is even better when playing the underdog card. Michigan State +2.5 |
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12-27-17 | Missouri -2.5 v. Texas | Top | 16-33 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
Missouri -2.5 Full analysis coming soon! |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 21-12 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 54 m | Show |
Zeke is back. The Cowboys offense will be back. The Seahawks defense won’t be back. Not only is the Hawks defense playing like a bottom-10 unit right now with all the injuries, they also seem to have some locker room issues and some clueless coaches. Earl Thomas publicly called out Bobby Wagner for playing limited through injury and Wagner responded harsh on Twitter. Pete Carroll didn’t have an excuse or explanation for not pulling Wilson out of the game. He looked clueless. It looks like he doesn’t have the fire right now and is a little bit disengaged. Now they travel to Dallas to play a Cowboys team that just got its sh*t together with Sean Lee back and is licking its chops with Zeke coming back. Zeke completely alters the offense and I think the Cowboys have a superior matchup for the Seahawks this week. Wagner needed to leave the game last week after not being able to run sideline to sideline so I can’t expect him to be ready to go this week. Bobby Wagner injured or not playing is a terrible loss, especially against a diverse offense as the Cowboys will be with Zeke back. The Hawks defense won’t be able to close out the space and they don’t have the corners to cover Dez Bryant in the red zone. The Boys will play away from Earl Thomas and try to exploit all the matchups in the short passing game and Dez in isolation. Seahawks won’t have any answers for that offense and I doubt they can play catch-up with that offensive line (DAL defense ranks 2nd in pressure rate) and without a running game. Wilson had one magic game and that’s about it. The Boys offense can impose its will and kill the clock in the second half to avoid any kind of Wilson magic. Seeing some kind of Boys win in the range of 31-17. Dallas Cowboys -4.5 |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars -4 v. 49ers | Top | 33-44 | Loss | -102 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
Jimmy Garoppolo this, Jimmy Garoppolo that. All I am hearing about the Niners is how Jimmy G is the savior of the Niners. Let’s sum up the last three weeks: Niners played the Bears, Texans and Titans. The best defense of the bunch is Chicago and that isn't saying much. The Niners barely won and scored five field goals for 15 points. The other two games were against the 18th and 22nd ranked defenses. Neither of these defenses were able to exploit the Niners’ weaknesses – their OL and WRs. Also neither of these offenses was able to score enough. Thanks Tennessee HC Mike Mularkey, the Niners had a chance to beat the Titans on Sunday. Kudos to Jimmy & Kyle Shanahan – they did a great job winning all three games and making the Niners offense look alive again. What you don’t see in the stats is Garoppolos passion for throwing passes straight to defenders. There were like 8 passes that could have been intercepted over the last two weeks but defenders just didn’t make a play – regression incoming. This week there is a completely different animal coming to town. The Jacksonville Jaguars are looking like the most complete AFC team right now. The defense has been playing in its own league and is putting up better passing efficiency than the 2013 Seahawks. Over their three-game winning stretch, the Niners have +1.0 net yards per play which ranks 6th. Over their three-game winning stretch, the Jaguars have +1.7 net yards per play which ranks 2nd. It took me a few weeks to get away from the “As long as Blake Bortles is the QB, that team is going nowhere” thinking. That offense looks as solid as it gets and they are very well coached. Last Sunday they were without their three best WR's and best RB and they steamrolled the Texans. OC Nathaniel Hackett is doing an awesome job, making Blake Bortles look comfortable. Over the course of the season, this offense ranks exactly average. Since week 7, Bortles has 12 passing TD's, 2 rushing TD's and 3 INT's. The most surprising aspect is how the offensive line has been performing. They rank 5th in adjusted sack rate, Bortles has a of time in the pocket. You already saw that in week 1 against a healthy Texans defense, Bortles was able to drink a beer in the pocket. During the season, Brandon Linder, Jeremy Parnell and Patrick Omameh all got injured and were missing time at some point. Now they are back in full strength and provide Bortles with a lot of clean pockets throwing to speedy WR's like Westbrook, Cole and Mickens running crossing patterns on great route combinations across the field. On these patterns, Bortles rarely has to throw with anticipation, he just needs his WR's to clear zones or run a yard away from their defenders to hit them in stride. He also has been throwing a few dots over the last few games. With the offense moving towards an average unit and Bortles looking good in a great system, this team is getting very scary, because they will get Fournette and Allen Robinson back at some point. The 49ers are no matchup for the Jaguars. We can argue the cross-country trip, but the Jaguars were resting starters in the fourth quarter last week and still play for a first round bye since the Steelers lost Antonio Brown and Ben is a bit limping. Jags hold the tiebreaker over PIT. As much as Shanahan will try to scheme guys open and put Garoppolo into a lot of quick release passes, it won’t be enough to move the ball on an historically great defense. That offensive line is going to get eaten alive and the Jaguars don’t need to respect the run or the pass either way. Sacksonville will be ready to roll throughout that game. On offense, the Jaguars will do enough again against the No. 29 ranked defense in weighed DVOA. This is men vs boys, Jaguars take this one home by 10+. |
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12-24-17 | Falcons v. Saints -5.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 112 h 31 m | Show |
I am regretting taking the Falcons on MNF. I really thought they are good enough to beat a Buccaneers team that is without several defensive key players comfortably, but they once again showed that they don’t have it this year. They were even out gained on a per-play base, by the Bucs! The Saints committed an unusual 3 turnovers against the Jets last Sunday (two in the red zone) and got a touchdown called back, but they out gained them pretty comfortably. Two weeks ago we took the Saints at Atlanta and we got victimized by a variance game. The Saints lost Alvin Kamara early on which completely altered their game and the Falcons survived with the help of the refs after throwing 3 INT's. The Saints out gained them by 0.6 yards per play. I have no doubt that they would have won the game without the injuries. They wanted to win the game at the end and threw a game-deciding pick instead of going to overtime. This time the Saints will nearly be in full strength, with a full week to prepare, in their personal early Super Bowl. There is such a big discrepancy in efficiency for the Falcons, I don’t see how they overcome that another time to keep this one close. They aren’t a playoff team in terms of efficiency. Atlanta is still bad against passes to RB and that’s where the Saints are going to hammer them all game long as they were supposed to do two weeks ago. On the very first drive, Kamara caught two passes for 29 yards before getting shredded to a concussion. Expect the full Kamara dose this week in a game that shouldn’t bounce the Falcons’ way as it did two weeks ago. New Orleans Saints -5.5 |
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12-24-17 | Rams -6.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 29 m | Show |
This one looks like a no-brainer, but I believe it is just one. There are light years between these two teams: offense, defense, special teams, coaching. Sean McVay is an awesome coach and already miles ahead of Mike Mularkey. The Rams already played two early east coast games this year and came out as winners. McVay will have his team ready to compete, so I am not expecting a letdown spot by any means. The only key for the Titans is playing Mularkey ball with Derrick Henry vs a questionable run D, but just as long as the Rams don’t pull away on the scoreboard. Mularkey still loves using Murray as his primary back even though Henry runs much more efficient. Against a bad Titans pass defense, I truly expect the Rams to pull away on the scoreboard via the pass and avoid a lot of runs against a good run D (McVay is smart) and then it doesn’t help the Titans to face a top-5 pass D with Wade Philips coaching vs. Mike Mularkey & Torry Robiskie. It also doesn’t help that Mariota is seriously injured and is considering ankle surgery in the off-season. The Titans have played a bottom-3 schedule on both sides of the ball in terms of efficiency and they played the easiest W/L-schedule. They have been trending downwards since week 3 and are only still in the playoffs because they barely beat teams like Browns, Colts and Texans without Watson. They played against two top-10 offenses, Steelers and Texans with Watson, and they conceded 40 and 50 defensive points. I expect Mularkey to lose the coaching battle easily and the Rams to put up 30+ points here to make another statement into the direction of the 3rd seed. Los Angeles Rams -6.5 |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 38 m | Show |
It’s been really tough to watch the Cowboys’ offense this season. Even with a healthy Josh Allen under center the Pokes struggled to move the ball on the ground and through the air. The big story is the status of Allen. Right now he is expected to play, but as you know, a lot can change between now and game day when you are talking about a potential first round NFL draft pick nursing a “sore shoulder”. Allen has struggled due to a lack of weapons at RB or WR. Allen had just 13 TD passes this season (missed time due to injury), their leading RB has 474 yards and their top WR has just 520. The Pokes ended the season ranked #125 in total offense and managed just 4.7 yards per play (#11 Mountain West). They finished up the 2017 regular season #114 in 3rd down conversions. The Chippewas had an excellent season defensively finishing up ranked #2 in the MAC in yards per play allowed, #55 in total defense (FBS) and #7 in pass efficiency defense (FBS) and amazingly they were #1 in the FBS in forced turnovers. They allowed just 13 TD passes all season and picked off 19. Offensively they were pretty average statistically this season (#71 offense FBS), but they did heat up down the stretch scoring 56,35,42,42 and 31 in their final five games. QB Sugar Shane Morris is a lock to clear 3,000 yards in this game and has been solid this year, although to be honest, we are not crazy about the 13 INT's. That is particularly true when going up against an excellent Wyoming defense that was #2 in the FBS in forced turnovers. They have a balanced offense with an underrated RB in J Ward (988 yards rushing, 41 receptions), a fine 1-2 punch at WR (C Willis, M Chapman 1,400 yards and 14 TD's combined) along with star TE Tyler Conklin who is healthy after missing a lot of the season due to injury. It is no secret that they started to roll on offense once he got healthy. Josh Allen. Will he play ? Will he sit ? I feel Central Michigan is the better team and that they can win regardless of who starts at QB. Central Michigan +3.5 |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +5.5 v. SMU | Top | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
It was foreseen the Bulldogs would take a step back this season after losing a pair of 1,500+ yard receivers and a 4600-yard QB. They held their own this season finishing up #5 in C-USA in yards per play and were balanced (#54 rushing, #64 passing). QB J’Mar Smith is not a polished passer by any means, but he is improving (13-5 TD to INT ratio) and has some good mobility (5 rushing TD's) and threw those 5 picks in 386 attempts. The running game has a great 1-2 punch in Boston Scott (937 yards; 272 last two games) and J Craft (1,000-yards last season; one carry last three games due to injury; now healthy) which gets to go up against a soft SMU defense. They were ranked #121 in total defense this season and #112 vs the run allowing over 5 yards per carry. The pass defense was brutal as well finishing up #116 in pass efficiency defense, and even though La Tech is not explosive in the passing game, they have enough weapons to make you respect the possibility of a big play (Teddy Veal 832 yards). You need multiple fingers to count the number of times SMU yielded 600 yards of offense. Rock solid CB Jordan Wyatt had two pick 6's but will miss this contest. Leading tackler Mikial Onu is questionable. It feels like La Tech will be able to do whatever they want on offense. On Defense Louisiana Tech finished up #65 in total defense and did a good job against some good offenses like W Kentucky (22), S Carolina (17), UAB (23), and North Texas (24). They are well coached and experienced and have a knack for making the big play (16 INTs). Their defense was ranked #12 in the FBS in the red zone. There is no doubt that SMU gets some points, but it’s hard to see them go off on this defense. There were a lot of strange and close losses for LT this year so they have to feel like they are playing with house money coming into this one. Head Coach Holtz is 3-0 bowl games with LT and I think they have the coaching edge for this game. Overall it seems like a good spot for LT. The SMU defense is poor and it feels like the Bulldogs should be able to take advantage. If either team implodes I feel it will be SMU. Louisiana Tech +5.5 |
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12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
A lot of injuries on the Atlanta defensive side (Gerald McCoy, Lavante David, +many others), combined with a true must win for Atlanta considering they have two tough games remaining (NO and CAR) and need to win two of the remaining three to make the playoffs. Despite the Falcons not looking like a Super Bowl contender this season, they are coming off 10 days rest I expect them to come out firing tonight. People are jumping on the touchdown dogs at home, but the real value 'aka the Sharp Side' lies in the visiting team. Atlanta Falcons -6.5 |
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12-17-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 37 m | Show |
*Barking Dog* Russell Wilson’s performance against the Eagles was a fluke. His mechanics are still bad, maybe he is secretly injured. He needs a whole lot of strength to loft balls deep instead of flipping it as he did his entire career. Turns out into bad accuracy with high variation. This time is the Rams’ best chance to beat the Seahawks as their defense is falling apart. No Chancellor, Sherman, Avril and now they lost Wagner and Wright last Sunday. Wagner was already banged up and this week he is going to be a game time decision but I highly doubt he is going to play. Wagner is the play-caller and probably the best LB in the league this year. Anticipation against run & play-action and zone discipline take a huge hit without him and that’s really bad against the Rams as Sean McVays offense is based on heavy play fakes to open up receivers in space and attack soft spots in certain zone concepts. With a thin defensive line, it’s gonna be real tough to generate consistent stops against the Rams that way. You can expect the Seahawks defense to offer certain space to Gurley & TEs underneath and without Sherman they don’t have the corners to match up with Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods who is likely returning this week. I expect the Rams to be able to score in the 20's this week and be very well prepared in a revenge game. The first time these two met in week 5, the Rams outgained the Seahawks 375 – 241 total yards and by an astonishing 1.6 yards per play. The key difference was that the Seahawks defense was healthy that time and held the Rams to 0/4 in the red zone. One red zone attempt was completely fluky because Gurley scored a touchdown and dropped the ball away for a touchdown. They also had a missed FG. So a score of 17-16 Rams would have mirrored the 60 minutes much better than 10-16. The Rams defense with getting Trumaine Johnson back should have enough power to overwhelm the Seahawks and they always had their number during the last couple seasons. Los Angeles Rams +2.5 (play down to -2.5 if necessary) |
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12-16-17 | Chargers -1 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 43 m | Show |
If you had asked me before the season who is the better team in this one, I would have said Chargers. Ask me now and I scream Chargers! LAC is playing lights out right now, on offense and on defense. Their only weakness is red zone efficiency as they converted only 4 red zone trips out of 15 into touchdowns during the last three games. 26.6% would rank dead-last in the league over the course of a season. However, this number should regress to the mean (league average is 54%) sooner than later, for instance against the Chiefs’ 20th ranked red zone defense (56%). That’s the scary part – the Chargers were highly underachieving in that area of the field. But the interesting part is that they consistently put themselves into a position to score even a FG while their defense shuts opponents down. Since the Eagles game they have allowed an average of 13.9 defensive PPG. Despite all the early season struggles, their offense is really flying under the radar. Anthony Lynn has established a great scheme that creates open routes, quick options for Rivers and a lot of big play opportunities. In the first game between these two, the Chargers lost 10-24 in embarrassing fashion. They were 0-3 in turnovers and the Chiefs scored 17 points off three interceptions. It was a stretch when the Chiefs were red-hot and the Chargers were ice-cold. It was also the time when they haven’t figured out their offense yet, Keenan Allen was still rusty and Hunter Henry wasn’t involved in the offense. Now the situation is reversed – the Chargers are red-hot and playing like a true Super Bowl contender whereas the Chiefs lost 6 of their last 8 with two wins against the Broncos and the fraud team from Oakland. The Chargers are light years ahead of those two. Los Angeles is going to Arrowhead and should dominate this Chiefs squad from start to finish. Chiefs are sure to have some success via Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt on the ground, but I expect their WRs to be non-existent and the Chargers defend passes to RBs very well. Chiefs will struggle in the most important area – passing offense. Even if the Chiefs make it into the red zone, they have been struggling mightily in that area of the field and the Chargers defense ranks 2nd in red zone efficiency (38%) right after the Jaguars. The Chargers offense should move the ball pretty efficiently here as the Chiefs have a bad defense with a bad pass rush and a horrible track record vs WR1's. Keenan Allen is red-hot and should kill that secondary even with Marcus Peters back. Chargers win this one and put themselves into the AFC West lead. Los Angeles Chargers -1 |
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12-16-17 | Oregon -7 v. Boise State | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 7 m | Show |
The Oregon offense is just way better with starting QB Justin Herbert running the show. The Ducks have averaged over 50 points a game with him at the controls and have been borderline bad without him under center. Starting RB Royce Freeman is a star and will not be playing in this game, but that will not affect this team. The strength of this offense is in the depth at running back and the skill of the QB. The Ducks had 40 rushing TD's and Freeman had 16. The strength of the Boise St team is their defense which is ranked #23 in the FBS and #2 in the MW in yards per play allowed. However the competition they have faced wasn't great. The MW was down this season and Oregon can bring a world of hurt if they are focused. The Broncos have struggled on offense this season and have the #88 rushing offense in the FBS. Everyone is focused on the Oregon offensive stars, but no one is focusing on the fact that two of the three best Boise St offensive players (RB – A Mattison 1,074 yards; TE Jack Roh 9 TD's) will either be OUT or limited in their ability. Boise utilizes a two QB system and will have to mix and match to the best of their ability to stay in this game. WR Cedric Wilson is a true star, but he'll be asked to do a too much in this one. The Oregon defense is the most underrated unit in this game as they finished #41 in the FBS playing a much tougher schedule. They were #3 in the PAC 12 in yards per play allowed and #2 in run defense. Boise is capable of scoring points, but they have needed help from their defense and special teams all season to win games. Oregon also know that Boise beat them twice in a row (almost a decade ago) and also realize it has been a long time since bowl victory themselves. Oregon -7 |
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12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +6 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 17 m | Show |
*Syndicate Steam* Finally the Giants got rid of HC Ben McAdoo. He did a great job from 2014-2015 as the OC, but since he has been the HC the offense has arguably been bottom three material. This season he lost everyone on the roster. The “team plays hard after the HC got fired” angle is one of my favourite. I truly expect the Giants to come out firing on both sides to destroy all playoffs hopes the Cowboys still have. I like Steve Spagnuolo as a DC and I believe he hasn’t had any discrepancies with the team – he will get them ready to roll. OC Mike Sullivan will try to get creative – it may not be enough to light up a bad Cowboys defense with Sean Lee back, but it should be enough to cover this game. The Cowboys destroyed the Redskins in prime time – atleast that’s what the final result says. But the truth is, the Redskins actually outgained them while losing by 24. More total yards, more yards per play, held Dak to 11/22 for 96 net yards passing, but they had 4 turnovers and the Cowboys had zero. Even the 4.3 YPC by the Cowboys weren’t anything special, but the Redskins weren’t able to generate key stops on the short fields they provided. We should have the same opinion on the Cowboys offense we had pre TNF – they aren’t good at all. The Giants’ defensive line around JPP, Vernon and Snacks is still able to win in the trenches and Spagnuolo always seems to be in Dak’s mind. In their three games with Dak against this Giants defense with Spag as the DC, the Cowboys haven’t topped 20 points. They scored 20, 10 and 19. If the Giants don’t lose the turnover battle by -4 as the Skins did I don’t see how the Cowboys get into the 20's here. If they don’t get into the 20's, the spread of +3.5 to +6 should be money. New York Giants +6 (this line is sure to move, play down to +3.5 if necessary) |
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12-09-17 | Army +3 v. Navy | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 45 h 23 m | Show |
Navy brings the #2 rushing offense in the FBS into this game and there is no secret regarding their strategy on offense. Run the ball. Convert on 3rd down. Hit one or two big pass plays. QB Zach Abey should be healthy and ready to go for this game. Abey is more than capable of hitting the odd big play down the field in the passing game, but he has also tossed 7 INT in just 70 attempts. Army has been decent shutting down their opponents’ rushing attacks allowing just 3.1, 2.7 and 2.5 yards attempt in their past three contests (103,89,89 yards). On thing to keep in mind is that Navy has allowed 12 sacks in less than 100 attempts (12.1% sack rate). Army has bagged 24 sacks this season and I feel that a mistake or two in the passing game may be a big advantage for Army. Army has the #1 rushing offense in the FBS and are going to challenge the Navy defense despite the fact that Navy are very familiar with the triple option offense. Senior QB Ahmad Bradshaw is a force on the ground amassing 1,472 yards rushing and 11 TD's at 7.8 yards a pop. They are deep in terms of complementary pieces to the rushing attack (Wolfolk, Walker, Davidson) and are going to present 60 minutes of hell to the Navy defense. Army has only allowed one sack all season long and actually won three games without completing a pass. Navy has the more dangerous rushing attack on paper, but do not be surprised if it is Army that makes more big plays in the passing game. The Black Knights have converted 53% of their 3rd down attempts (#1 FBS) and will be hard to stop on Saturday. Army +3 |
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12-07-17 | Saints +2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
The key to this game is a 21-year old CB who plays for the New Orleans Saints – Marshon Lattimore. If Lattimore plays this week (currently Questionable), he will shadow Julio which makes the job of Matt Ryan almost as uncomfortable as it was against the Vikes. The Saints defense in general isn’t as stout as the Vikings and the Falcons will be efficient on the ground, but taking away Julio allows the Saints defense to shift their attention to the other guys and to stack the box even more. Last Sunday, the Falcons were held to 9 points and 1/10 on third down. For the first seven weeks, the Falcons offense wasn’t efficient by any means. Steve Sarkisian basically didn’t know how to get that offense going. He didn’t involve Julio Jones enough. From week 8 to 12, this offense played differently. Sarkisian involved Julio a lot more on first down and deep passes which completely altered the offense. Per Warren Sharp, Julio was targeted 44% on first down and 66% deep (from 30%) between week 8 and 12. The offense was moving the ball much more efficiently and had a much easier job on third down when they got to it. All other WRs benefited from that. During that span, they faced NYJ, CAR, DAL, SEA & TB. NONE of these teams had a quality CB1 that was able to match up with Julio. Last Sunday, “Rhodes closed” was shadowing him and his stat line was 2-24-0 on 6 targets. This led to a worse first down efficiency than usual and the Falcons’ average distance to go on third down was 8.4 yards. It’s tough to move the sticks that way. Falcons should be able to put up points, but the Saints defense will generate some key stops. That brings us to the Falcons defense that looked to have a good day against the Vikings offense. Atlanta has a bottom-3 run defense but somehow managed to hold the Vikes to 3.4 yards per carry. However, the Saints and their two-headed monster Kamara/Ingram (fingers crossed Ingram can play as he is still Questionable) are still a different category and should move the ball all day on the Falcons front seven and their secondary doesn’t have enough firepower to consistently match up with all the Saints WRs without much help from the front four against a good NO pass protection. It should be noted that LG Andrus Peat is out for the Saints, however this was expected and backup Senio Kelemete will fill in. Kelemete is a 27 year old vet at 6'3" 300lbs, so I don't expect a huge drop in performance at LG. Also, LT Terron Armstead should be back. I love the Saints here with Lattimore playing and the Saints should get more key stops on defense which could lead to a 27-21 kind of win, but taking any kind of points here is a bonus. New Orleans Saints +2.5 (buy up to +3 if -115 or less) |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals +6 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This game presents itself as a great revenge opportunity for the Bengals and I expect them to take full advantage. Cincinnati looks to salvage their season (5W-6L; currently 3rd in AFCN) after winning two straight games and getting a dvision home primetime game against their rival Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have won 5 straight games over the Bengals and have won all games in Cincy dating back to 2013. The Steelers, winners of 6 straight games coming into tonight's matchup, come in to this game a little banged up with Antonio Brown being a game time decision. If he can't go that would be huge for the Bengals, however they'll still need to keep their eye on Martavis Bryant and the rest of the WR's who would fill in for AB. I expect a motivated performance on defense this evening by the Bengals after losing 29-14 in Pittsburgh earlier this year. Look for Atkins to provide a lot of pressure on an aging Roethisberger who doesn't seem to avoid back field tackles like he once did. Coming off a +100 yard performance on the ground, look for Joe Mixon to establish the run in order to set up a Dalton/Green combination down field. The Bengals may eventually shoot themselves in the foot like they've done a lot this year already, however we are getting substantial points at home for an important division game under the national spotlight and the line value is simply too much. They may lose in the end, but I expect them to compete and make it a close game. Cincinnati Bengals +6 (play down to +4.5) |
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12-03-17 | Vikings +3 v. Falcons | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
'Top Underdog of Week 13' The Minnesota Vikings are still not getting enough credit in my opinion. +3 at Atlanta means they would be even on a neutral field – disagree! The Vikings are the better team, playing better Football on both sides of the ball and all that against a stronger schedule. Purple Pain ranks 1st in my efficiency ranking and played the 4th-toughest efficiency schedule. I am missing quality wins from the Falcons this season. They had a quality win against the Packers who lost both their starting tackles in that game when I remember right. They lost vs the Bills, Dolphins and got killed by the Pats. They won a stinker against the Jets, so they aren’t far away from going 0-4 against the AFC East. They were dominant against the Cowboys without Zeke, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee. They won at Seattle by gaining less than 200 pass yards and less than 100 rush yards. Less than 5% of the teams since 1989 scored 30+ points in that scenario – the Falcons are one of them. They played a Bucs team that lost 3 offensive linemen along with their two best (Dotson & Marpet) and SS TJ Ward during the game, that was without their best cornerback (Hargreaves) and their best defensive end (Ayers). You cannot decide who you play, but you can decide how you play them and I am really missing quality wins from the Falcons. Games in which they really dominated a good opponent from start to finish. So now they are -3 favs against the Vikings? I expected that line to be around pk. The Falcons have a bad matchup against the top-teams in the NFC simply because of their defense. For the past two weeks I have been wondering they the good per-play efficiency of the Falcons doesn’t pass the eye test. They play a very conservative defense without a lot of blitzes. They want to limit big plays and keep the game in front of them. They limit big plays but they don’t efficiently shutting down opposing offenses. Last week the Bucs offense lost three starting linemen and still moved the ball on them. They turned the ball over in the Falcons red zone on 4th & 1 by throwing deep so they had a shot at scoring more than 20. That Vikings offensive line is gonna impose its will on them all game long. They are going to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant is in the concussion protocol and didn’t practice on Wednesday. If he is absent, Brian Poole and Robert Alford will play outside against arguably the best WR tandem in the NFL – Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. When Thielen plays in the slot, it’s Brian Poole or rookie safety Demontae Kazee on him – disaster. The Vikings should have no trouble posting 30+ points against the Falcons and make a huge statement. The Falcons offense is a bit overrated in my opinion and they are going to have problems moving the ball on one of the best defenses. With Matt Ryans interception-regression year I wouldn’t be surprised by 2 interceptions even though Case Keenum is also always good for one. Vikings should get a road win at Atlanta against a team that is overrated IMO and isn’t expected to compete with the NFC juggernauts. Vikings +3 |
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12-03-17 | Lions v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 101 h 32 m | Show |
'Top Fave of Week 13' I keep saying this: the Lions are the luckiest team in the NFL. The loss to the Vikes should have been a blowout, but they were gifted the TD drive right before halftime and got another TD when Stafford threw it up into double coverage. Vikes missed four points by kicking. A score of 34-17ish would have been closer to reality. Now they travel to Baltimore to play the No.1 ranked defense on the road in an open stadium. The Ravens defense also ranks 4th in scoring and 3rd in yards per play. This is going to be one heck of an away game for the Lions. It also doesn’t help that Stafford has a bad ankle when playing against that Ravens front seven. He said he should be good to go, but his ankle got rolled just 10 days ago and he desperately needs fluidity in his legs because he isn’t a really good pocket passer and needs his legs to create big plays out of structure. The Lions can’t run the ball (bottom-3 run offense), but play against a top-10 run defense. The Ravens will absolutely shut down the run game and find strategies to make Stafford uncomfortable and create short fields for the Ravens run game and their offensive MVP Justin Tucker. Another game with a +1 or higher turnover advantage for the Ravens wouldn’t surprise me at all. Seeing a 23-16 kind of game in favour of Baltimore. Ravens -2.5 (-3 fine too) |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 66 h 33 m | Show |
The Jets moved the ball pretty well against a top-10 defense last week (Panthers) and had some bad luck. Austin Seferian-Jenkins dropped the easiest TD he will catch in his entire career and another great TD grab was ruled incomplete which was weird. Both touchdown opportunities resulted in field goals. The Panthers had a fumble return touchdown and a special teams touchdown. The Jets actually outgained them by almost 100 total yards and 1.3 yards per play. Usually I think twice about taking a team late in the season that doesn’t play for the playoffs but this Jets team is a little bit different. Atleast that is what I read between the lines when listening to interviews. They are very young across the team and they are highly motivated. Todd Bowles gets them to play with passion. Before the season started, everyone (including myself) said they would be playing for the 1st overall pick and when you see them play, especially the defense, it seems they play with a chip on their shoulder. It isn’t enough to beat the better and way more experienced teams but they can play a lot of games close which they absolutely did. I don’t consider the Chiefs a good team right now and they come into this game in a downward spiral. I wasn’t high on them going into the season but they proved me wrong. Over the last few weeks they have finally been playing to how I expected them to play: bad defense, weak WR corps and a QB who produces great conservative stats but can’t rip coverages apart and prefers the screen pass everytime. The Chiefs surprised opposing defenses with their creative concepts early in the season. Defenses caught up and copied the Steelers gameplan – play zone, limit YAC and let Smith make reads from the pocket. Since the Raiders game on TNF, the Chiefs have scored an average of 14.5 offensive PPG in regulation and that includes the weird touchdown at the end of the first half at Dallas. Their defense didn’t look bad the last couple games because they played DEN, NYG and BUF. The current Jets offense is better than those three. Never expected I would say this but the Jets offense has a good matchup this week. The Jets will go run-first against the worst run defense in the league. I expect Forte and Powell to go off here because the Jets are one of the few teams that possess a reliable and respected deep threat – Robby Anderson is having a Pro Bowl season. He has a TD in each of the last five games. He is a great vertical receiver that can make adjustments at the catch point to catch tight window or off-target throws. The Chiefs have to account for that all the time on shot plays while also needing to send extra help into the box to boost a bad run defense. This is a simple numbers game and the Jets offense has a big advantage. The Chiefs have to rely on McCown mistakes here otherwise they are going to struggle to stop the Jets throughout major parts of the game. The Chiefs on offense don’t seem to do anything against a hard playing defense with two top-5 DROY candidates at FS and SS who are going to limit the Chiefs’ run and screen game. Jets should win this game and I will gladly take a +3. New York Jets +3.5 (+3 is fine) |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +6 | Top | 27-21 | Push | 0 | 49 h 45 m | Show |
The Buckeyes’ offense has rolled all season other than in games vs Oklahoma, Iowa and Michigan. They won a close one over Penn St but tallied 529 yards of offense. JT Barrett was a little banged up last week and did not play the entire game vs Michigan, but back-up Dwayne Haskins showed some nice flashes in relief of Barrett. They looked a bit out of sorts last week and things do not get any easier this week facing a defense that is ranked #1 in the FBS in total defense, run defense and pass efficiency defense. That is pretty awesome. Now, of course the trick is how to interpret those stats given the weak schedule that Wisconsin has played. It is not their fault, but it is a bit of a tricky read. It seems to us that Ohio St will not have much more success than they did last week vs Michigan. That game was on the road, but the Badger defense is at least a slight step up in our opinion. I do not think Barrett can hurt them consistently in the passing game other than on a few big plays. I'm also skeptical about the mobility of Barrett post surgery this week and his ability to do damage running the ball. If he can’t get himself rolling it takes a lot of punch out of the Buckeyes’ offense. It’s hard to imagine Ohio St getting into the 30's. Ohio St knows that Wisconsin will be coming at them with the power running game. Their run defense is ranked #4 in the Big 10, but Michigan had enough success with their top-2 RB's last week (22-122; C Evans, K Higdon) so it is not unthinkable that one of the best RB's in college football Jonathan Taylor can have a big game on Saturday. He has tallied over 1,800 rushing yards and 13 TDs in 2017. Once again, however, you have to read between the lines and determine how much of a downgrade to give those stats considering the schedule that they have played. Ohio St got carved up for 243 yards on the ground vs Iowa, but did a nice job vs S Barkley and Penn St. Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook is a capable QB, but he has limited weapons in the passing game and has tossed 13 INT's. The Badgers are #2 in the FBS in 3rd down conversions and time of possession. If they keep the chains moving and slow the game down it is going to be really tough for Ohio St to win the game let alone cover the spread. Wisconsin has an edge in the FG department as R Gaglianone has hit 12/14 this season including 2/2 from 40+ while Ohio St has only made 1/3 from 40+. The Wisconsin defense has not allowed 20 points all season. Northwestern scored 24, but that included a defensive score. It’s hard to know just how good this Wisconsin team is, but to be honest, Ohio St has not looked too powerful against the better defenses on their docket. This feels like a one-score game. Wisconsin +6 |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL v. CLEMSON -9 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 57 h 0 m | Show |
This is going to be a tough assignment for the Hurricanes’ defense. Clemson is very balanced and can rip you apart with the run or the pass. Now they are not as deadly in the passing game like the 2016 team, but QB K Bryant has been pretty solid all season, other than when he was dealing with an injury. Bryant has thrown 12 TD passes and ran for another 10 scores while orchestrating the offense very well. They have a couple of solid RB's (T Etienne, T Feaster) and that makes their rushing attack pretty deadly when you add in the mobility of Bryant at QB. They have a deep stable of weapons at WR including veterans D Cain and H Renfrow. T Higgins has 262 yards receiving and a pair of TD's in his last two games (Citadel, S Carolina). Miami has a fast and disruptive defense, but they will be significantly challenged in this game due to the variety of weapons that Clemson has to offer. If Bryant distributes the ball effectively and they stay away from turnovers they will definitely be in great shape. Clemson is not turnover prone so it will be interesting to see if they stay that way playing against one of the most opportunistic defenses in college football. Miami was abused by a freshman run/pass sensation at Pitt (K Pickett – 193 pass, 60 rushing, 3 total TD's) and you have to think that K Bryant and the Tigers’ offense is an upgrade. QB M Rosier deserves a lot of credit for the way he played in their biggest games during the regular season. Of course, the tricky thing is that the majority of their tough games were at home, other than the win over Florida St. I worry a lot about the ability of Miami to run the football against Clemson who has the #14 run defense in the FBS. Miami managed just 45 yards on the ground vs Pitt and 59 vs UNC in their last two road contests. Given time, Rosier will be able to make some plays down the field, as Clemson has shown themselves to be human at times when facing decent passing teams. Miami will be without match-up nightmare TE C Herndon, but do have a talented and clutch WR in B Berrios along with a number of underrated receivers that could pop up and have a big game. A Richards has been a disappointment (dealing with injuries), but he is more than capable of stepping up on the big stage. The key will be pass protection. If Rosier has time – this game will be interesting. Clemson has only recorded more than a single sack in one of their past 4 games. Miami has been decent at keeping Rosier clean in 2017, but they did give up 4 sacks last Saturday. Having said that, without the threat of a running game, it will be really tough for Rosier to do enough damage. It’s a lot of points. But at the same time, it also feels like Miami is going to have a hard time getting things going against one of the most talented and well coached defenses in all of college football. The running game has had a hard time working outside of Miami and they cannot afford to be one dimensional. Clemson has had a bit of a difficult time putting teams away this season, but then again, we are probably just getting spoiled. Clemson has a lot more weapons and a more imposing defense. And big game pedigree. Miami has shown the ability to rise to the occasion but will need (+2) or better in turnover margin to stay in this game. Miami only played four games away from home; beat Duke (were outrushed 183-139), beat Florida St (only ran for 83 yards), beat UNC (59 yards rushing) and lost to Pitt (45 yards rushing). Given that they will not be able to run the ball this week and they are #121 in 3rd down conversions, it seems apparent that Clemson is going to have a lot of time with the ball and eventually wear down the Hurricanes’ defense. Clemson -9 |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 117 h 54 m | Show |
The Rams are in a crazy bounce back spot – they come off one of the toughest games possible, a road game at Minnesota. They were supposed to lose. The perception of them shouldn’t change off that 7-24 loss – they were simply outplayed in terms of matchups. They were able to hang tough until the 2nd half, had a fumble at the goal line and at the end their defense just got worn out, because the Vikes ran 73 offensive plays which is way above average. The Rams played three times against top-10 defenses (JAX, SEA, MIN) and scored 16, 10 & 7 offensive points. All three of those teams were able to create a disrupting pass rush to make Jared Goff feel uncomfortable in the pocket. The Vikings also completely shut down the run game after the first Rams drive, which put Goff into a lot of long passing situations. Everson Griffen didn’t register a sack against Andrew Whitworth, but he was able to push the pocket very often, which also led to a sack by Danielle Hunter. Goff still isn’t the greatest passer – he needs confidence in his pocket and open receivers. When a defense is able to condense the pocket and close a lot of space (as Vikes did with their athletic LBs), he is forced to fit balls into tight windows and that’s something he struggles with. The Saints come off a crazy comeback-win on overtime and the media is praising them just as they already won the Super Bowl. After Jay Gruden gave the ball back with some terrible decisions, Drew Brees threw a pick on the final drive but it came back because of a flag – the Saints shouldn’t have won that game. New Orleans are on a 8-0 win streak, but their schedule during that stretch becomes more and more weaker. Their defense looked awesome, but they faced a lot of the weaker offenses in the league. Now dealing with injuries, this is the perfect letdown spot for them. Over their last 5 games, they had games vs the Packers, Bears, Bucs, Bills and Redskins. 3 of their last 4 were at home. The Redskins were the best offense they faced since week 2 and Washington moved the ball at will on them, especially after Marshon Lattimore went down. It’s not sure whether Lattimore will play this week. Not being able to play a snap with that bad ankle sounds pessimistic. Lattimore really has been the key to that defense, because he can shut down the outside WR and the defense can shade their remaining coverage over to the middle which closes more space for other receivers. But even with Lattimore, the Saints don’t have a good matchup against the Rams – if Watskins is covered, the Rams have enough playmakers to create matchup problems for the rest of the Saints defense. Another big advantage for the Rams will be the ability to run efficiently on the Saints run defense that ranks bottom-5. The Saints lost DE Alex Okafor which can be described as a big loss. He has been a force against the run, producing 10 TFL and the third-highest run stop percentage in the NFL. He also added 4.5 sacks. His backup – rookie Trey Hendrickson – has seen the field mostly as a pass rusher and needs to refine his game. He will be a major downgrade from Okafor and won’t be a threat to Andrew Whitworth. Taking away a good run defender from a bad run D isn’t a good idea. So Goff can simply ignore the left side of the pass rush and focus on hitting receivers in space on shorter downs than last week, because the Rams will be able to move the ball on the ground. I am expecting a big game by the offense and a good-enough game from the defense to seal a home win in a very good spot. Rams -2.5 |
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11-25-17 | Washington State +10.5 v. Washington | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 25 m | Show |
The Huskies will try and use a balanced offense to move the ball on a very good Cougars stop unit. QB Jake Browning has done a good job this season guiding the offense but they have been much less explosive than they were in 2016. Browning has a fine 18-5 TD to INT ratio, but is going to fall well short of last season’s 43 TD pass tally. Myles Gaskin is a legit #1 RB (1,090 yds, 15 TD), but they only have one player with more than 400 receiving yards (D Pettis – 706, 7 TD). The Cougars are ranked #2 in the PAC 12 in yards per play defense, #2 in rush defense and #1 in pass efficiency defense (8-14 TD to INT ratio; 53% completions). It seems to us that the Huskies are going to have to work for everything they get especially considering that Washington St is #2 in the FBS in 3rd down defense (25%). If the OL can do a decent job of protection (last PAC 12 in sacks allowed per game) QB Luke Falk should have more than enough time to do some damage. Washington allows 63% completions and have only registered 6 INT's. The strategy on offense will be to get the ball out quickly and mix in some running plays. RB Jamal Morrow leads the team in rushing and averages over 6 yards per carry. 9 players have 200+ yards receiving so Washington will have to keep things in front of them and make tackles IN SPACE as they say on ESPN. This should be a really interesting battle as Washington is #1 in the PAC 12 in yards per play allowed. Washington has done a fine job vs the Cougars the past two seasons, but they have lost a lot of talent to the NFL since then AND will be without star LB Azeem Victor for this contest. These teams do not appear to be that far apart in talent level. You also have to think that Washington St has the motivational edge with the Huskies failing to reach any of their major goals for the season. It also cannot hurt the Cougars to be coming off a bye week whilst the Huskies are off back-to-back meat grinders vs Stanford and Utah. Washington State +10.5 |
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11-25-17 | Ohio State -11.5 v. Michigan | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 10 m | Show |
Ohio State -11.5 Full analysis coming soon. |
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11-24-17 | Ohio v. Buffalo +5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
It’s another year and no MAC Championship. Ohio controlled their own destiny to win the East, but lost to the wacky Akron Zips and their back-up QB. Can they get motivated for this one? The good news is that they have one of the best players in the MAC in QB Nathan Rourke (14 passing TDs, 19 rushing) who is going to be a handful for the Bulls. The Ohio run defense has been excellent this season (#2 MAC), but the pass defense has been really shaky. Buffalo QB Tyree Jackson has thrown for over 1,000 yards in his past three games since returning from injury and the OL is excellent at pass protection. That should mean plenty of time to get the ball to star WR Anthony Johnson (1,201 yds, 12 TD) and friends. The running game is also good enough to keep the Bulls balanced. It will come down to the Bulls run defense. They are #10 in the MAC when it comes to stopping the run, and the Bobcats can rip off a lot of rushing yards, even if RB D Brown does not go. 11th year senior AJ Ouellette is a legit #1 RB and the mobility of Rourke is a really tough for any defense to handle. The Bulls have a strong motivational edge and Ohio does not have the talent advantage that you might think based on win/loss records. The home team has won 7 straight in the series. Buffalo +5 |
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11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 85 h 26 m | Show |
The Detroit Lions are the luckiest team in the NFL. They won another game in which they were outgained in total yards and yards per play, but they got a defensive touchdown off a fumbled snap. They now lead the league with five defensive touchdowns. On their game-winning drive against the Bears, Matt Stafford threw a pick that was dropped and later Matt Prater hit a 52yd field goal. Then Mitch Trubisky converted a long 4th down with his legs before Connor Barth missed the game-tying field goal. The way this Lions team keeps winning games isn’t sustainable. In the first game against the Vikes, they benefited from 3 fumbles and the Dalvin Cook injury. They won the last three games against the Vikings in fluky fashion and I believe they cannot do it a fourth time. The Vikings are so much better than the Lions. They had to switch QBs, play with a backup QB, lost their RB threat (still the most rush yards on the team) and still went 8-2 on a solid schedule. Without Bradford getting injured, they might be 9-1 or even 10-0 to this point. They don’t get outgained by worse competition, they just easily beat them. IMO, the Vikes are one of the best overall teams in the NFL at this point. Before the season started, Matt Stafford was 5-46 SU against teams who finished the season with a winning record. If you think the Panthers, Vikes, Saints and Steelers finish with a winning record, he is now 6-49 SU and 6-50 considering the Falcons a winning team. I disagreed with the line opening at pickem and immediately took the Vikes. The line got bet up very quickly and is now much closer to where it should be. It wouldn’t surprise me if this line reached -3 come Thursday before we will see some buyback on the Lions. I think the Vikings will put a beating on the Lions this time and make a strong case for one of the two top-seeds in the NFC. Minnesota Vikings PK'em |
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11-19-17 | Eagles -4 v. Cowboys | Top | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show |
Last year the Eagles got slowed down by the bye week, but the Cowboys are in trouble and everyone should focus on their injury report. Without Sean Lee, this defense gets shredded and gives up more than 5 YPC. Without Tyron Smith, Prescott faces pressure all game long. Without Zeke, the offense misses an important element. If the Eagles play up to their strengths, they should roll the Cowboys. Eagles -4 |
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11-19-17 | Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 33-8 | Win | 100 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
Not only do I believe that the Pats are 6.5 points better than the Raiders, I also believe they show them what a real playoff team is. The Raiders come off their bye, but they stay at Oakland all week to prepare for the game. The Pats played in Denver in high elevation and they stay the week in Colorado Springs (6,000 ft) in the Air Force facility to prepare for the game in Mexico (7,200 ft). That’s very smart by Bill Belichick and a major advantage for New England. The Raiders prepare for the game at 43 ft elevation. The slow Pats defense held 6 of 9 teams to 20 points or less and the other three teams (KC, HOU, CAR) have QBs who can create plays with their legs and play in offenses that can create in space. The Raiders are a more static offense with a QB who doesn’t want to hold the ball. Belichick will have his defense ready – we might see a lot of three-men rushes. Raiders defense is no matchup for the Patriots and their No. 1 ranked offense. Pats should roll a minor opponent on a neutral field with good preparation. Pats -6.5 it is. Patriots -6.5 |
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11-19-17 | Rams v. Vikings -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 56 m | Show |
Despite the Rams 7-2 record, I am skeptical regarding the rest of the season. The Rams played a soft schedule thus far. Here are their wins: blowout vs Colts with Scott Tolzien, close shootout win vs Niners, close shootout win vs Cowboys, “quality win” vs Jaguars with two special teams scores, blowout vs Cards, blowout vs the Giants who quit, blowout vs a decimated Texans team with Tom Savage. Their two losses are against a healthy Redskins team and the Hawks. If we consider the Texans a bottom-10 team without Watson, the Rams have 5 wins vs bottom-10 teams and 2 wins vs Dallas and Jaguars (14 points by special teams). They were actually outgained by total yards and yards per play in both games. That isn’t too impressive, is it? Now they go to the Bank, one of the toughest places to play in the NFL right now. The Vikings defense is impressive and is something the Rams haven’t faced this year besides Seattle and Jacksonville. In those games, the Rams scored 10 and 13 offensive points. If you count the fumble touchback by Gurley, they scored 17 and 13 vs two top-10 defenses. Purple Pain has held every team at 19 points or below at home this year and they would be unbeaten if they didn’t fumble the ball away 3 times vs Detroit in the game Dalvin Cook got hurt. This is a complete challenge for the Rams and I expect them to struggle the same way they struggled against the Hawks and Jaguars. If you watch the Rams offense, one thing gets obvious: Jared Goff almost never needs to throw into tight windows/coverage as his receivers are just schemed wide-open and he has a lot of time in the pocket. Whitworth is going to play against the candidate for DPOY, Everson Griffen. Griffen won’t win a lot of matchups, but he will send more pressure from Goffs blind side than the QB is used to get in other games. On the other side, Danielle Hunter has an intriguing matchup against Rob Havenstein who still struggles a bit in pass protection. The run defense of Minnesota is really good as well as their red zone defense. Jared Goff will be forced to make much more difficult throws than usual. A great matchup for the Rams is Robert Woods vs Trae Waynes, but Goff still needs to throw with anticipation under pressure to exploit that certain matchup consistently and I don’t think he is able to do that. I am seeing an equal offensive output as they had vs Seattle and Jacksonville. Vikings should just score enough on offense to win that game on the back of their defense. Vikings -2 |
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11-19-17 | Ravens -2 v. Packers | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
This is a must-win game for the Ravens. They are 4-5 and one win away from the AFC wild card (Bills). Steelers, Patriots and Chiefs are too far away, Jaguars and Titans hold the tiebreaker against the Ravens. If they want to play in January, they gotta focus on the last wild card. They know that the Bills have a ceiling of 8-8/9-7 with games vs LAC, IND & MIA (2x) left. They simply have to win this game to put themselves into a good position for the wild card race. The Packers come off a surprising divisional win, whereas the Ravens are off their bye and have one day extra rest before the next game at Houston on Monday. John Harbaugh is one of the better post-bye coaches in the league, going 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS and winning by 8.9 PPG off a bye since being the HC in Baltimore. The final score in the Packers/Bears game last Sunday is a little bit misleading. The Bears missed Danny Trevathan badly against the run, they had bad tackling and produced stupid flags in the secondary which guided some big plays for GB and on top of that, they had a sure touchdown that Benny Cunningham fumbled into the end zone for a touchback. John Fox challenged the play and the touchback was the result. Without a challenge, they would have had the ball at the goal line. The Ravens live and die with their defense, but that should be enough to win here. The Ravens defense is stout on a very easy schedule. They have the ability to make below average offenses look bad. Their revamped secondary with Tony Jefferson, a healthy Jimmy Smith, rookie Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr has been playing very well. And Jimmy Smith just got much healthier during the bye, he missed lots of snaps over the last few games. NT Brandon Williams is arguably their most important player, but he was injured from weeks 3-6. This is a horrible matchup for a Packers offense that is bottom-10 material with Brett Hundley and just lost their leading RB Aaron Jones for 3-6 weeks and Ty Montgomery is banged up with a ribs injury. Even Hundley has a bad harmstring. Green Bay will struggle to run efficiently which sets up difficult passing situations for Hundley all game long. The Ravens secondary can just sit back and win their matchups against an average receiving corps. Mike McCarthy has shown us in 3 games that he can’t work out a game plan that maximizes the potential of his offense and surprises opposing defenses. He is completely dependent on Aaron Rodgers. I am seeing bad production and 2-3 turnovers by the Pack offense. This is a dream matchup for Baltimore. Yes the Ravens offense has struggled, however they are getting healthier and don’t face a good defense at Lambeau. Danny Woodhead comes back who is a nice addition in the short passing game, just for instance. Ravens have a lot of passes for negative yardage where Woodhead will help. Another key is that there are around 20 miles of winds expected on Sunday, so the game is going to be run-heavy and that’s where you love having the Ravens defense on your ticket. If their defense plays like they are supposed to do, the offense is going to have an easy job. The Ravens cannot afford to lose this game and I don’t believe they will. Ravens -2 |
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11-18-17 | Florida International +14.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
QB Jason Driskel has been a stabilizing force leading the Owls to excellent offensive output in their past eight games (45,31,38,58,69,42,30,48). Driskel only has six TD passes to his credit, but does have the ability to hand the ball off to RB Devin Singletary who has 1,360 rushing yards and 22 TDs on the ground. FAU likes to run and then kill you with passing plays and that explains their excellent offensive production and horrible time of possession ranking (#126 FBS). FIU is not the kind of defense that is going to create a ton of problems for opposing offenses (#10 C-USA in yards per play allowed). This feels like a game in which the talent differential is closer than you think. Florida International +14.5 |
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11-12-17 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
The Falcons are due. The only thing that’s holding them back is regression from last season as they are just unlucky (the Julio TD drop last week?). They are putting up top-6 metrics on offense and are due for a big win. They come off a divisional loss in their third straight road game at Carolina to play a Cowboys team that has the Eagles on deck and is without Ezekiel Elliott. I reduce 2 points for the Cowboys without Elliott and it could be even more because he is so valuable in my opinion. The Cowboys defense looked great vs the Chiefs, but the Chiefs played fluky on offense, Alex Smith is reverting to the conservative guy who doesn’t climb the pocket. Falcons should move the ball at will here, especially on the ground and I don’t think the Boys have enough firepower without Zeke to match that. Atlanta Falcons -3 |
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11-12-17 | Steelers -10 v. Colts | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 23 m | Show |
There's not a lot to dive into with this matchup, for me this one is a no-brainer. This is a men vs boys kind of game and I expect the Steelers to trash the Colts. Indy is like Arizona, they won close vs bad teams and got blown out by the better teams. Without Hooker and Davis, this secondary will get torched and they also can’t stop the run or challenge that OL in the trenches. It also doesn’t help them that the Steelers play very good on D and also are bringing back Martavis Bryant. This is blowout city to me, 38-13 kind of game. Pittsburgh Steelers -10 |
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11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 20 m | Show |
Great situational spot for the home team. Bills got embarrassed by the Jets on prime time and the Saints just beat the Bucs straight up. So it’s a natural reaction that the Saints open as -2 favs at Buffalo and the line absolutely makes sense. However, I think this is a great spot to take the Bills in a decent matchup off extra rest vs a dome team in low temps around 30. Sell high spot for the Saints off games vs Hundley, Trubisky and Winston/Fitzpatrick. Tidbit: Drew Brees is 0-6-1 ATS in games with temps lower than 40 degrees. The Saints have the best matchup against teams that struggle to run the ball. They wanna jump out to a lead, milk the clock and give their good pass defense opportunities to make plays. First of all, it’s not easy to take a lead at Buffalo and secondly, the Bills are a run-first team that is able to stun the Saints and their only weakness on the ground. I am expecting a huge game by LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor on the ground. The Bills get two important players back, CB EJ Gaines and TE Charles Clay. Gaines helps tremendously because he is a very underrated corner. Clay helps a lot as a receiving threat underneath because the Bills obviously aren’t stacked at WR, but will see Kelvin Benjamin make his debut. It’s save to assume that the Bills aren’t going to shut the Saints offense down, but I dont expect the Saints to move the ball easily at Buffalo. Sean McDermott spent years in the NFC South and he knows these offenses in and out. They already beat the Bucs and Falcons and were an end zone drop away from beating the Panthers at Carolina. Buffalo Bills +3 |
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11-12-17 | Chargers +4 v. Jaguars | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
The Chargers come off their bye week playing against a hot Jaguars team that has been able to mask their weaknesses. LAC were unlucky at New England – they had two touchdowns come back because of stupid penalties. Those drives returned in zero points. I think this is a talented team that still has some wild card hopes. They get Denzel Perryman back from IR, their starting Mike which is an upgrade. I expect the Chargers to use their bye week to focus on their run defense because that’s pretty much the only weakness that can be fixed quite a bit on the Chargers team. The Jaguars want to pound the ball and mix in some PA, jump a lead and let their defense win the rest of the game. As soon as a team jumps a lead on them, the Jags are in jeopardy because their offense has to function out of structure. They aren’t build to beat teams through the air when the opponent knows what’s coming. Bortles looks solid this season when he doesn’t have pressure. On most of his successful passes he doesn’t need to throw into tight windows or throw someone open. He basically hits open receivers off of play action a lot. Versus the Bengals he wasn’t good but the Jags were successful on early downs so that he didn’t need to force anything. He still had some terrible throws and dropped picks. The Jags are 5-0 when they had a close score long enough or jumped a lead. In their 3 losses, defenses didn’t let them pull away. I think the Chargers defense has enough potential to keep this one close early on, even though we are expecting the Jaguars to be quite successful on the ground and a big advantage is that ex- Jags HC Gus Bradley is their DC. He will put in the extra hours to make his defense shine. LAC has a talented corner group with Hayward and Williams ranking and they are very good against TE's which will contain the Jags secret weapon Mercedes Lewis. On offense the Chargers have a QB who is good for 3 picks twice a season but also one of the best when throwing from condensed pockets and you need that unique attribute when playing vs this Jaguars DL. Gordon could see a couple breakout runs against one of the worst defenses in the league. I believe that the Chargers have the potential and the situation to keep this game close against a team that needs a certain game script to be successful. If the Chargers score the first touchdown, the +4 has a great shot of hitting. San Diego Chargers +4 |
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11-12-17 | Browns +11 v. Lions | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 18 m | Show |
This is probably the best situational spot on the board. The Lions come off a big win at Lambeau and have two divisional games vs the Bears and Vikings on deck. In between they play vs the lowly Browns. Cleveland come off their bye week and get a great price here at +11.5. Winless teams in week 6 or later are 26-8 ATS off their bye week. Teams with 0 or 1 wins are 80-50 ATS. The Vikings game at London was interesting to watch because Hue finally put Kizer in a position to succeed. He responded with some great plays under pressure against a great defense. Hue Jackson constantly asked Kizer to throw aggressively downfield to WR's like Kenny Britt and Ricardo Louis. Getting Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman back could completely alter this offense. The Browns have a good run game and two versatile RB's who weren’t used properly overall until the Vikes game. This week they get Garrett, Peppers and McCourty back. McCourty and Garrett are great additions to this pass defense especially this week. The Lions rank 32nd in rush offense, rushing for just 3.2 yards per carry. They won’t be able to run on the Browns so they gotta need to get their offense going simply via the pass so they will be highly predictable on offense. Their pass offense has been on fire the past three weeks, but given the spot and long third downs, they could be forced into some mistakes which should help the Browns keeping this game close. A good way to attack the Browns is via the TE position as they are maybe the worst at defending TE's, but the Lions don’t have a quality TE. The Lions simply need to rely on the pass and if the Browns can limit their turnovers, they have a good shot at covering double digits here. Update: Lions are likely without their best OL, T.J. Lang who was put into the concussion protocol. Cleveland Browns +11 |
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11-12-17 | Jets v. Bucs +2.5 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
Put everything you had in mind regarding these two teams aside for a moment. What in the world justifies to make the Jets -2.5/-3 favs on the road? This is public perception vs reality at its finest. The Jets beat the Bills in a great spot at home last week and the media has been all over it. Todd Bowles is getting Coach of the Year praises, OC Morton is talked as a sleeper head coach. This team has exceeded all expectations already, also mine. But it doesn’t justify to make them FG favs on the road. Jets have one single quality win all season, that was last week in a great spot vs a rookie HC on a short week at home. Their four road games? Lost by 9 at BUF, outgained by 194 yards. Lost by 25 at OAK, outgained by 139 yards. Lost by 3 at MIA, outgained by 85 yards. Won by 3 at CLE. The Browns game was an historical win. They got outgained by 205 yards and the Browns turned the ball over 3 times inside the Jets 5 yard line. Jets should have lost by 10+ there. Overall, they are 1-3 on the road but should be 0-4. They got outgained by a total of 623 yards in four road games. They are a bad road team. Now lets talk about the Bucs. Tampa Bay is having a season to forget. Doug Martin was suspended for the first three games, Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David missed a combined 8 games, TJ Ward has been battling injuries, Vernon Hargreaves has regressed, Jameis Winston has a shoulder injury. The thing about Winston has always been the following: He has a great arm and can make outstanding throws, but it’s rare. His accuracy is terrible, especially on deep balls in the Bucs’ vertical passing game. He consistently has mental mistakes, throwing the ball straight into triple coverage. Combined with his injury, his play has been atrocious lately. Did you hear his team speech last week? It was a clowns show. Here comes the (Fitz-)magic: Ryan Fitzpatrick is NOT a downgrade from Winston at this point. He is rather an upgrade because Koetter has to alter the Bucs offensive style as Fitz cannot throw deep. Fitzpatrick throwing to TEs and RBs underneath with DeSean drawing deep coverage is a better idea than a banged up Winston throwing deep. They are missing Mike Evans but I don’t really care. They don’t need him to win this game. Bucs will bring everything on Sunday to support Fitzpatrick vs his former team. |
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11-11-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Miami-FL | Top | 8-41 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 11 m | Show |
The Irish running game is one of the most devastating attacks in college football right now and it is led by an underrated QB in Brandon Wimbush who has 13 rushing TD's and a 11-2 TD to INT ratio. RB Josh Adams has not had a full workload this season, but has still rushed for almost 1,200 yards and 9 TD's. The depth is excellent and the offensive line is one of the best in college football. There will be some one-on-one opportunities to hit big plays and the Irish have to succeed on a few to win this game. The Hurricanes have had difficulty with missed assignments and have given up a lot of rushing yards between the 20 yard lines. They have yielded 175+ rushing yards in five of their last six games. QB Malik Rosier has made a few too many mistakes (7 INT on the year) and will have to be extra careful vs an opportunistic Irish defense. Rosier will have to do a lot of damage and mix in some timely runs on 3rd downs to move the chains and I think that is asking him a bit much against the Irish. RB Travis Homer has been really good, but I feel like the Irish can essentially stop the traditional run game. They allowed over 100 yards rushing last week for the first time in four weeks. Yes, they are usually playing with a lead, but they are allowing less than 4 yards per carry on the season and did a good job vs Georgia (185 yards). Last week’s lay down and die job in the 4th quarter vs Wake Forest meant that the Irish allowed more than 20 points for the first time all season. I'm leaning on the team that has played a tougher schedule and comes in a bit fresher (easy win vs Wake) against a home squad off one of their biggest wins in recent history. I prefer to back the squad who can dominate with the running game vs the team we feel will need to make hay in the passing game. Notre Dame -3 |
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11-11-17 | Arkansas State -10 v. South Alabama | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 5 m | Show |
The Red Wolves are lighting it up under star QB Justice Hansen and they have the #12 passing attack in college football. Hansen has a fine 25-7 TD to INT ratio and can run for a first down once in a while as well. That’s good because the ground attack has been pretty bad although they do get Warren Wand back for this game. South Alabama has been good against the run, but really bad vs the pass. They have been lit up by good QB's this season and are going to have major problems with Hansen. The Jags have allowed 61% completions and only picked off 3 passes all season (15 TD's). They are #11 in the Sun Belt in sacks per game and last in tackle for loss per game. Arkansas St has a great defense and are ranked #2 in the Sun Belt in yards per play allowed, #1 in sacks per game, #1 in tackle for loss per game and #1 in pass efficiency defense (51% completions; 7-8 TD to INT). This is a bad match-up for the Jags. DE Ja’Von Rolland-Jones is one of the most prolific pass rushers in college football history if you go by the numbers. He is #1 all time since 2005 (37 sacks). Arkansas has just finished disposing of Georgia Southern (43-25), Coastal Carolina (51-17), Louisiana (47-3) and New Mexico St (37-21). They are motivated and fresh off a bye and get to face a similarly crappy team. Arkansas State -10 |
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11-11-17 | Michigan State +17 v. Ohio State | Top | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 9 m | Show |
The Spartans should be able to slow down the Buckeyes’ run game. Michigan St has not allowed 100 yards in a game since Oct 7 (Michigan – 102). QB Brian Lewerke is really coming into his own. It’s not often that you see a Big 10 QB throw for 400+ yards in back to back weeks and he has only thrown 5 INT in 315 attempts. The big challenge will be getting the run game going vs Ohio St. The Spartans are likely going to need another big day from their QB and underrated WR group. Based on what we have seen from Ohio St this season (#8 pass efficiency D in Big 10; #6 in sacks per game) it feels like Mich St is going to get some yards throwing the ball and score some points. Things seem to be lining up for a magical Spartans season. Ohio St is a bit wobbly and appear to be vulnerable. I think the Buckeyes are explosive enough to score some points, but their consistency in the air will be there issue vs a really good defense. Michigan State +17 |
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11-10-17 | Temple -2.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 35-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
QB Frank Nutile has been a big upgrade over Logan Marchi at QB. Nutile has completed 66% of his passes at 9 yards per attempt with a fine 5-2 TD to INT ratio in his two starts. The job is now in the hands of Nutile and he has a great set of WR's in the passing game. They have four legit playmakers out there and last season’s #1 Ventell Bryant is back in the mix this week after missing last week’s game. The running game has been behind an inconsistent offensive line, but RB Armstead is a legit #1 and all FB Nick Sharga should be able to clear some holes and help the Owls maintain some balance. The Bearcats are ranked #106 in the FBS in run defense and #116 in pass efficiency defense (only 3 INT all season), with only 9 sacks all year. Nutile was not touched last week vs Navy and he should be able to sit back and get the ball out to his playmakers. On the other side of the ball, QB Hayden Moore has a great arm, but is also inconsistent. He has only completed 56% of his passes at less than 6 yards per attempt with a 13-7 TD to INT ratio. The WR group is not especially scary and the Owls will just have to eliminate the big plays and let the pass rush go to work. Temple is #2 in the AAC in sacks per game and TFL per game. If Cincinnati get behind the chains I would exprect negative plays and INT's. Temple is moving in the right direction and have a spark with new starting QB. The defense will make more plays as the WR group should excel. Temple -2.5 |
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11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 11 m | Show |
I get the feeling that the Redskins are having one of the most brutal stretches right now. They are decimated with injuries and get to face the Hawks, Vikes off bye and the Saints. Every good passing defense is a tough matchup for the Skins and right now they play with a banged up offensive line and travel across the country to play at Seattle. The Redskins don’t have DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, they don’t have a bye to prepare and they don’t have a magic dual threat QB. They got a mediocre Kirk Cousins behind a banged up offensive line. Trent Williams will be out, Spencer Long and Brandon Scherff didn’t practice. Swing tackle Ty Nsekhe didn’t practice. Jordan Reed is 99% out. Jamison Crowder didn’t practice. Zach Brown didn’t practice. The injury report looks even more concerning than last week for the Skins. We can’t talk about metrics here because of how banged up they are. Redskins offense cannot move the ball at Seattle. It would be completely surprising to me if they scored more than 14-17 offensive points. Seattle is going to win in the trenches easily. Cousins could be picked twice and sacked five times. The Hawks offense is weird. Their play calling is reactive to the opponent and score. If the score is tight and it’s early in the quarter, they are very predictable, trying to run with a non-existing run game. Chasing a score or before half time they go crazy with play action and vertical routes. Getting Duane Brown doesn’t fix their OL or running game but it helps Wilson processing in the pocket because he doesn’t have to account for both tackles getting beaten at the snap. The passing game should improve. The Skins defense isn’t great and they also have some injuries to deal with. The Hawks shouldn’t be forced to chase a score here. They will try to get their run game going or surprise us and put the game on ice as early as possible with a TNF game on deck. I expect them to use Jimmy Graham early and often as the Skins can’t defend TE's at all. All in all they should have enough on offense and defense to beat a mediocre and banged up Skins team by more than a TD at home. Play is on the Hawks. Seeing a 27-14 kind of game. Seattle Seahawks -7 |
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11-05-17 | Cardinals v. 49ers +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
I have the home side favoured by my count, yet we are getting a full field goal of dog points. I cannot expect the Cardinals to score many points with Drew Stanton. Stanton has a TD pass in only 5 of 9 career starts and Arians always tried to limit his impact. With a good running game that approach would be clever, but the Cards struggle there too. Peterson had one good game and hasn't shown he can carry the load otherwise. There is no threat going from this offense. The Niners who will be very motivated after their recent trade for a franchise QB (not playing), will have their best chance to win a game this year, however I'll play it safe with the field goal points. 49ers +3 |
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11-05-17 | Bucs v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 69 h 57 m | Show |
I view the Saints as -8 favorites here and thanks to some huge sharp action, this line has come down to -6.5 over Thursday. I disagree with that line and don’t see legitimate reasons for such a huge exposure on the Bucs. The Saints have a strong and dominant offense, good pass defense. These are key factors to win a lot of games and to win a lot of games by more than one possession. The Saints offense vs the Bucs defense might be the best matchup on the board this week, equal to Houston vs Indy. By metrics, the pass-heavy Bucs still have one of the better passing offenses in the NFL, but Jameis Winston is not right and they face a really good passing defense. This game is about game script. The Bucs could be successful if they go run-heavy with Doug Martin and the Saints don’t get ahead. But I see this game being played out as the Saints scoring early and then go into their lovely run-mode in the second half to see what Jameis does with a banged up shoulder against their pass defense. If the Saints score early and often against a terrible defense, they cover -6.5 here and that’s what I lean. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
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11-04-17 | Clemson -7 v. NC State | Top | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 92 h 19 m | Show |
NC State has an excellent front four, but they are going to be put to the test trying to defend the Clemson attack. The Tigers have a ton of speed and a lot of different ways to attack you on defense. QB Kelly Bryant only has 6 TD passes, but does not make many mistakes and has excellent mobility. He will most definitely slow down the Wolfpack DL. The Clemson rushing attack features three players with over 400 yards rushing (including QB Bryant) and are loaded with depth. The WR group is very talented and experienced, despite losing Mike Williams. If Clemson can keep the negative plays to a minimum (#2 ACC TFL per game allowed) as per usual they are going to most definitely have some success. NC State has yielded 20+ points in every game other than two (Furman, Pitt). Pass defense is their weakness and they need to prevent the big over the top plays and make the Tigers drive the field. They will also have to improve on 3rd down defense (#96 FBS – 46%). NC State are facing the #7 ranked defense in college football who also happen to be #1 in sacks per game in the conference. The run defense is pretty much a brick wall and NC State is up against it especially with their #1 RB Nyheim Hines hobbling with a bit of an ankle issue (left early last week). NC State can stay in this game if they can do a better job on 3rd downs (#64 FBS) and in the red zone (#110 FBS). They need TD's. Field goals will not win this game. The spread seems a bit light. Clemson did not go nuts last week, but the weather was pretty dreadful. If Bryant has his usual mobility this game should be a double digit victory. Clemson -7 |
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11-04-17 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -14 | Top | 37-48 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
The Irish are rolling this season and playing fantastic football blowing out every opponent by 20+ points other than the mighty Georgia Bulldogs (one-point loss). The Irish get another chance to inflict pain this Saturday against Wake Forest. The Irish are averaging an amazing 318 yards per game rushing (#6 FBS) and face a Wake Forest defense that was gashed for 191,427 and 190 yards in their last three games (LUA-VUH, Ga Tech, Clemson). The Deacons will be without leading tackler S Jessie Bates and that is not an ideal scenario when facing Notre Dame. RB Josh Adams is having an excellent campaign with over 1,100 yards rushing at 8.9 yards a pop and would have 3,400 yards if he played Stanford’s schedule. QB Wimbush is not Lamar Jackson, but is an excellent runner. The RB depth is gross. Keep your eye on WR Kevin Stepherson who has caught a TD pass in each of the past two games. Wake has allowed 26,28,38 and 32 in their past 4 games. Even a sluggish Notre Dame squad should get into the 30's without an issue. The Deacons just finished scoring 42 vs LUA-VUH but that defense is far from even decent. In their previous four games they scored 20,19,14 and 24 and now face one of the most underrated defenses in college football. They will be without their best offensive player WR Greg and the Irish have not allowed more than 20 points in a game in 2017. Note: Notre Dame’s OC was at Wake Forest last season. Things do not look good for Wake Forest. Notre Dame should run without mercy and its hard to see Wake get more than 14-17 points without help from the defense and/or special teams. Notre Dame -14 |
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10-29-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 75 h 38 m | Show |
I know Steelers -2.5 looks super square here, but the line is more than fair. When seeing a square road fav line I always ask if I would take the team at that price at home, switching points for Home for Away. Steelers would be -8.5/-9 at home and that’s still a reasonable line. Big Ben seems to be back. He threw some nice passes into tight windows against Cincy and didn’t hesitate at any throw. His deep pass is still an issue but with Bell being back to his form that’s not a big deal. The Steelers are at the top of my Power Rating, offense is loaded and defense is playing really good. Steelers top all the efficiency metrics. This is a boys vs men kind of game to me. After media doubted the Steelers, this is another huge statement game for them saying “We are here” on prime time. From a matchup standpoint, I don't see how the Lions prevail here other than by turnovers or weird flags. The Lions offense is non-existent. They rank 30th in yards per play at 4.6. The only offenses worse are Miami and Baltimore. Lions can’t run the ball and can’t consistently move the ball from the pocket. Stafford is at his best when the play breaks down, but that’s not sustainable. This isn’t enough to beat the Steelers. The Lions need to rely on the pass (probably without Golden Tate) against a good passing defense with a strong pass rush that ranks 3rd in adjusted sack rate. Against other top-10 defenses in sack rate, Minnesota and Carolina, the Lions struggled to move the ball through the air. LT Greg Robinson is bad but he might not play so expect his replacement to be even worse against young freak TJ Watt. Don't be fooled by the Lions coming off a bye, they are the clear worse team in this matchup. Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 |
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10-29-17 | Chargers +8.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 67 h 0 m | Show |
The Chargers overcame early season struggles and are finally playing up to their potential. Lynn finally involves Henry at 80%+ snaps and the offense got more effective. Hightower being out is a huge blow for an already bad Pats defense. They can’t cover TE's and that’s where Henry is the key for the Chargers this week as they should be successful through the air and put up points. Chargers D is playing conservative and disciplined, playing a lot of zone behind a strong pass rush by their D-line and they defend TE's very well. I expect the Pats to go run heavy here because they like to attack weaknesses and they want to keep their D sidelined. However, I think the Chargers are able to pull the upset in this one as the Pats have too many issues on their D and the Chargers D has been capable of keeping games close. The highest scoring amount they gave up was 26 to Philly. Los Angeles Chargers +8.5 |
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10-29-17 | Falcons -4.5 v. Jets | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 67 h 57 m | Show |
As bad as the Falcons offense looked the last two weeks, it’s hard to believe they put up another shit show this week. Sarkisian got officially counted on, he has to change something, otherwise he will be sacked next Monday. Atlanta comes off an embarrassing prime time loss in a game everyone expected them to play like real men to get Super Bowl revenge. They failed. This is a perfect spot to put all their frustrations on the lowly Jets who have been overperforming when it comes to their record. The Jets have played an easy schedule in terms of efficiency metrics and teams being in bad spots: survived the 0-7 Browns in a magic game, blew a lead to the Jags off London to barely win in OT, blew a 14pt lead to NE (would have been a quality win though) and blew a 14pt lead to the Fins. This team has benefited from an easy schedule and I expect them to regress in terms of scores. They have a shot at losing all their remaining games from now on. In terms of metrics they rank bottom-10 across the board despite their schedule. Their defense isn't much better, all above middle of the pack averages. This is a team waiting to get beaten by the better teams in the league. Remember what a solid Raiders offense did to them. If the Falcons jump a lead which has much better chances than Jets jumping a lead, the running game gets negated to some margin in the second half which leads to McCown spreading the ball and that smells some turnovers. If Sarkisian gets his head straight, Falcons should win a 31-17 kind of game at New York. Atlanta Falcons -4.5 |
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10-29-17 | Bears +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
I know that it looks intriguing to go with the hot Saints in their Superdome against a team that won by defensive scores recently. However, this isn’t a good matchup for the Saints. Whereas their pass defense has been playing on an extremely high level since week 2, their big and probably only weakness is defending the run and the pass to RBs. And that’s where the Bears present the perfect matchup. Chicago wants to run the ball (2nd-highest percentage in the league) with slow pace, no matter if they are playing with a lead or trailing. The Saints run D ranks 30th in yards per carry. The Saints also have allowed the 5th-most receptions to RB's. This is a great matchup for the Bears who are going to attack the ground and the short field with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen all game long. They are going to slow the game down and keep themselves in winnable situations all the way. They don’t play to get blown out. On defense, they rarely get beaten by big plays. They play the pass very well and force the opponent to beat them on the ground or by short passes. This all sums up to a low scoring game which plays to the Bears strengths on running the football. Chicago Bears +9.5 |
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10-29-17 | Vikings -9.5 v. Browns | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
The Vikings look to win their fourth straight game and put a strangle hold on the NFC North when they face the winless Browns on Sunday at London’s Twickenham Stadium. The Minnesota Vikings have found a way to win despite who plays QB, meanwhile the Cleveland Browns continue to flip flop at the helm and can't find any consistency behind center. The Vikings’ defense has been terrific, holding four straight opponents under 275 total yards to rank fourth in the league in total defense. Minnesota gave up a season-low 208 yards in a 24-16 win over Baltimore last week. Now they get a shot at rookie Deshone Kizer who gets another starting chance after getting pulled and then finding himself in hot water over the late night video which surfaced last week. The Vikings also get WR Diggs back this week which should actually help their run game, forcing the Browns secondary to play soft coverage. To make matters worse for the Browns, they lose both Myles Garrett to concussion protocol and All-Pro OL Joe Thomas who's been a rock for them for years now. Browns are 7-25-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall and Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf. Note not win/loss, against the spread. Hard to imagine, but true. Minnesota Vikings -9.5 |
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10-28-17 | UNLV v. Fresno State -20.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 37 m | Show |
Fresno have won their last two games over good teams (New Mexico, San Diego St) by a combined score of 55-3 and show no sign of slowing down. UNLV has shown a few signs of promise, but more signs of being a bad team. Fresno St has demonstrated an excellent balance between the run and pass, and to top it off, QB McMaryion has completed 65% of his passes with an excellent 7-1 TD to INT ratio. The running game features three players with 270+ yards rushing and the ball is distributed well when they decide to utilise the passing game. The Rebels also feature one of the worst defenses in the FBS and should be easy pickings for the Bulldogs. UNLV QB Armani Rogers is listed as doubtful due to concussion protocol. I cannot imagine the Rebels subjecting him with playing a road game at Fresno St. If Kurt Palandech gets the nod this week, things do not look pretty. Fresno St is #3 in the Mountain West in yards per play allowed and #17 in the FBS in total defense. They have not allowed a TD in 9 quarters. Fresno State -20.5 |
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10-28-17 | TCU -6 v. Iowa State | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -118 | 46 h 52 m | Show |
The Horned Frogs have been rolling right along this season with a very potent and balanced attack. QB Kenny Hill has a fine 15-3 TD to INT ratio and has completed 70% of his passes. They are ranked #36 in the FBS rushing and #35 passing. They have a great 1-2 punch at RB and ELEVEN different players have caught a TD pass in 2017. The Horned Frogs are also still #1 in 3rd down conversion offense and face an Iowa St defense ranked #105 in the FBS in 3rd down defense. TCU is #1 in the Big 12 in sacks allowed per game. They are also the #2 pass efficiency D in the conference. TCU is very difficult to run on (#3 FBS) so it seems like the Cyclones are going to have a lot of trouble moving the ball. TCU has won the last three meetings by scores of 41-20, 45-21 and 55-3. The weather forecast is cold and windy. That should help the defenses, and theoretically, limit the damage that Iowa St can do in the passing game. TCU is bottom line the better team here and should be able to cover a touchdown spread and more. TCU -6 |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 29 m | Show |
Ohio St has been steamrolling opponents (54,56,62,56 points in the last four games), but realistically those were glorified exhibition games when you consider they beat UNLV, Rutgers, Maryland and Nebraska. JT Barrett has a 21-1 TD to INT ratio while averaging almost 9 yards per pass. He has also rushed for 359 yards and 5 TD's and does a great job picking up first downs with his legs. The running game is deep and explosive. J.K. Dobbins has 775 rushing yards and overall the running game is going to be difficult to defend this week. The passing game is improving and have now accumulated 24 receiving TD's as a team (10 different players). Despite Penn State's ability on defense, Ohio St is a tough team to pin down in the backfield. 3rd downs are going to be big on Saturday and Ohio St is converting 49% on 3rd downs (#10 FBS) and need to play keep-away. The key match-up is going to be the ability of Penn St to achieve success in the passing game. Ohio St is ranked just #7 in the Big 10 in pass defense efficiency and will be in for a stern test when you consider worrying about Barkley. I believe that Ohio St has a big situational edge (off a bye; Penn St off big win over Michigan) and is rounding into form on offense. Coach Meyer is great off a bye and the weather is not going to help the Penn St passing game. Ohio State -6 |
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10-27-17 | Florida State v. Boston College +4 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
The Seminoles have been struggling on offense this season and have only scored 11 offensive TD's. Freshman QB James Blackman has not been the problem. Yes, he makes mistakes, but he is a true freshman operating behind a suspect offensive line. The Seminoles are last in the ACC in sacks and tackle for loss allowed per game. The running game has been respectable despite the negative plays and mistakes, but they have not been able to supplement that with a dangerous passing attack. Boston College is #8 in the FBS and #2 in the ACC in pass efficiency defense (6 TD 12 INT) and I do not see Florida St doing a ton of damage in the passing game. They will hit some shots, but it those will likely be countered by negative plays and mistakes. They will be without RB J Patrick (surgery) who was one of their 1-2 punch. The Eagles are starting to click on offense racking up over 500 yards per game in both of their past two wins. The balance has been excellent (364/191 run pass mix vs LUA-VUH; 237/275 vs Virginia) and QB Anthony Brown is coming off his best game of the season. Freshman RB AJ Dillon ripped apart LUA-VUH for over 270 yards and 4 TD's and Jon Hilliman provides great depth. Not to mention the mobility of Brown. Six players have 100+ receiving yards and eight guys have at least one TD reception. Florida St has done a nice job defending the run this year other than vs Lamar Jackson. Boston College will almost certainly not approach 500 yards, but they are going to be a handful for the Noles and will test their discipline. Florida St only has 3 INT's this year and 11 sacks. They are just not being disruptive enough. Boston College is #1 in the ACC in sacks allowed per game. Forget about the rosters in August. Right now – these teams are really close in overall talent level given the injuries that the Seminoles are dealing with and Boston College is full of confidence and playing well. The Eagles are playing for a bowl bid and should come out motivated. Boston College +4 |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
This is a phenomenal buy low spot to take the Ravens. Baltimore is the home side with a strong defense on a short week against a team that is getting overpriced. The Fins have more wins than I thought they would have, but each one occured by one possession. They are a bottom three team on average by all significant metrics. They are a 2-4 team by metrics but they somehow sneaked to 4-2. Now they travel to Baltimore on a short week with a QB change. I am low on Matt Moore and there is a reason Adam Gase went with Cutler out of retirement instead of Moore. Moore consistently tries to throw games away. Last season he got away with fluky wins before exploding vs Steelers in the playoffs. The Ravens defense is really good. Their pass defense ranks 5th in DVOA and their run defense is expected to improve because their best run defender Brandon Williams was out for 4 games. At their home turf, they are going to make the job of Matt Moore and a harmless Dolphins offense who got some injuries very hard and should create turnovers. The Dolphins run offense is averaging 3.3 YPC, good for 30th in the league and 0.8 YPC below average. I don’t see how they do anything tonight. On the flip side, the Ravens offense has knowingly struggele. However, the Ravens have a better offensive matchup than the Dolphins vice versa. The Ravens offense also faced one of the toughest schedules this year. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw the Ravens scoring in the 24-27 range along with a defensive score. That should be enough to cover because the defense will take care of the rest. I like the Ravens to cover -3 here vs the Dolphins. Baltimore Ravens -3 |
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10-22-17 | Falcons +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 124 h 57 m | Show |
Super Bowl revenge! This isn’t the same Pats team most are used to seeing, especially on defense. The regression is obvious for the Falcons offense (int's & tipped int's) this year but they are still very efficient. They ran very well vs the Pats in the SB and this time they get an even worse Pats defense. Falcons should run all day and the Pats don’t have the CB's to match up well with Julio, Sanu and Gabriel. They are also giving up the 2nd most receptions and most yards to RB's, which is certainly a bad matchup vs Atlanta due to their two header monster backfield in Freeman and Coleman. The Falcons can use their full arsenal of weapons and should move the ball all day long. If they get a key stop more on offense, this 3.5 line should hit. Atlanta Falcons +3.5 |
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10-22-17 | Cowboys v. 49ers +6 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 31 m | Show |
I think this line is too high for the Cowboys even though I think they will look better during the next few weeks. CJ Beathard definitely looks quite a bit better than Brian Hoyer. His peak plays were good last week. Cowboys defense gives up tons of points, that’s why their overall scoring differential is just +1 on the season so far. Niners finally return home after a tough road stretch and even though Dallas comes off their bye, I don’t see this line to be justified. Niners didn’t get blown out since Week 1 and always hung tough. Kyle Shanahan keeps pressing the gas pedal until the last minute and even though they don’t have a competitive roster yet, they always provide you with backdoor chances. Home game, nothing to lose, new QB, one of the better run defenses who get Foster back – I really like the six points here. San Francisco 49ers +6 |
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10-22-17 | Saints -4 v. Packers | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 159 h 29 m | Show |
On top of Rogers going down, the Packers O-Line is in serious question entering this matchup. Regardless if David Bakthiari and Brian Bulaga play, they've had no reps with new QB Brett Hundley this week so they won't be familiar with his pocket presence/movement and it should allow for a field day for the Saints DT's - defensive end Cameron Jordan has registered five sacks already on the year. I expect Hundley and the Packers to attempt to counter this by trying to get rid of the ball very quickly and the Saints D-Coordinator well aware of this and play press coverage everywhere. Besides quick throws expect to see a lot of runs and screens, I don't expect Hundley to open up the offense in his first career start. The one thing he can do is scramble, so the Saints should be actively ready to play contain. On the other side of the ball, things are really coming together for the Saints. They've rattled off three straight wins after an 0-2 start and quarterback Drew Brees sees things falling into place. "I think we've gotten better every week in certain ways," Brees told reporters. "Obviously, we have some momentum. We like the direction that we are going. We understand the things that have happened these last three weeks that've allowed us to win.". One of these things being the running game certainly. Look for Ingram and Kamara to continue their excellent play as of late and to get big chunks of yardage on Sunday against a defense which has struggled against the run allowing 119.8 yards per game (24th in NFL). New Orleans Saints -4 |
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10-22-17 | Panthers v. Bears +3 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 110 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
THe Panthers are in a slightly better situation because they come off a Thursday game and Bears come off a tough overtime game at Baltimore. Some key injuries to monitor as Luke Kuechly is still in the concussion protocol and I doubt he plays, and Kelvin Benjamin hasn’t practiced. It really surprises me that the Panthers are one of the biggest public plays this week as I believe the Bears are a tough underrated team to beat at their home turf. The Bears are 3-0 ATS at home. They played a tough schedule and got blown out twice when Mike Glennon and company destroyed themselves with company. With Trubisky and Kyle Long back healthy, they ground and pound and play it save. Bears have a good front seven, a strong running game and a solid young QB. Panthers struggle to run the ball whole season and even if Ryan Kalil is back, I am having a hard time seeing them running efficiently on that Bears front seven. A field goal at home should provide a lot of opportunity for the cover. Chicago Bears +3 |
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10-21-17 | USC v. Notre Dame -3 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
The Irish have piled up 300+ rushing yards in 4 games already this season and now get to face a banged up USC defensive line unit. QB B. Wimbush has been an electric runner (8 TD's) and is developing a nice passing game (6-2 TD to INT ratio). The strength of the team is the excellent offensive line that is almost certainly one of the best in the FBS. RB J. Adams is well on his way to a 1,000 yard season and the backfield is loaded with depth. The game plan will be to punish the Trojans’ front 7 with a relentless and deep rushing attack and hit some big plays in the passing game when the opportunity arises. Notre Dame has managed to outscore their opposition by 20+ in every game this season other than the one point loss to Georgia. Notre Dame -3 |
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10-20-17 | Colorado State -7 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -112 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
Colorado St continues on their DATE WITH DESTINY and a spot in the Mountain West Title game. There are a lot of hurdles to jump over before the end of the season but a 3-0 start in conference play is never a bad thing. Colorado St is #9 in the FBS in total offense with fantastic balance between the run and the pass. QB Nick Stevens is on a mission completing 64% of his passes with a 18-6 TD to INT ratio. The run game is loaded with 1-2 punch D. Dawkins and I. Matthews rushing for 1,100 yards and 9 TD's whilst the passing game is complemented with a loaded receiving corps. Michael Gallup is phenomenal as he has almost reached the 1,000-yard mark, after posting 1,200 yards and 14 receiving TD's in 2016. Colorado St has yielded just 2 sacks all season. New Mexico allowed 49 points in this matchup in 2016. Colorado St has won seven straight games in the series by an average of 17+ points per game. Colorado State -7 |
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10-19-17 | Memphis +3 v. Houston | Top | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
Memphis has lost over half a dozen projected starters on defense, but are getting better as the season moves along. They are certainly not elite, but are +7 in turnover margin and #4 in the conference in tackles for loss per game. They are playing with a lot of confidence right now coming in to tonight's game. Houston is going to get their yards, but I don’t see them shredding Memphis to pieces. QB Riley Ferguson is really starting to tally the stats (19-5 TD to INT ratio) and it does not hurt having a loaded backfield and one the best WR's in college football (Anthony Miller) at your disposal. Miller had 14 TD receptions and over 1,400 yards receiving last season and has already booked 9 TD's in 2017. D Henderson and P Taylor are a great RB combo and Tulsa just lit up Houston for almost 300 yards on the ground despite having no threat of a passing game. Houston’s defense has been a disappointment so far as they are ranked #83 in the FBS after really fine performances in 2016 and 2015. Houston was shredded by Texas Tech and SMU through the air and appear to be in tough this week vs a team with a stud QB and a good rushing attack. Memphis has the more explosive skill position players and are the more hungry team. I also prefer their head coach, the ability to create turnovers and their special teams. Memphis +3 |
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10-15-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 29 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 Full analysis coming soon. |
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10-15-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
L.A. Chargers +3.5 Full analysis coming soon |
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10-15-17 | Rams +1 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
Subscriber pick. |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4.5 | Top | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 121 h 20 m | Show |
New Orleans Saints -4.5 Full analysis coming soon |
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10-15-17 | Browns +10 v. Texans | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
I like the Browns again this week. I still don’t know how they lost last week – it was an historical game in terms of losing while completely out gaining the opponent. This line is wrong again in my point of view, as crazy as it sounds. From last year’s great defensive unit, the Texans are without Bouye, Demps, Cushing, Wilfork, Kevin Johnson, Simon, Mercilus and (Watt). They couldn’t stop the pass this season and now they are down another two key players to their front seven. The Browns’ best unit is their offensive line and when Clowney plays against Joe Thomas, I don’t know how this front seven is gonna create consistent pressure or stop the run consistently. I think Kevin Hogan would play with more confidence than Kizer this week but the Browns should absolutely move the ball in this one. Browns must have started giving Hue Jackson the count after last week and this week we should expect more conservative play-calling inside the red zone to get points on the board. I think this game is decided in the fourth quarter and the Texans shouldn’t lay double digits to anyone this week. Cleveland Browns +10 |
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10-15-17 | Patriots -9 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
Update: Brady was officially removed from the injury report on Friday. The Jets might be one of the worst 3-2 teams in recent history. They played maybe the easiest defensive stretch possible (MIA, JAX, CLE) and benefited from either great spots or a complete red zone collapse from CLE. Browns could have led 20-0 at halftime. The Jets are the first team since 1994 to rush for fewer than 35 yards and to pass for fewer than 180 yards in a game against the Browns. Note that Powell and Forte appear to be out, leaving Elijah McGuire to handle the load. I expect the Patriots to continue to work out their defensive woes in this one and score at a healthy amount of points. New England Patriots -9 |
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10-14-17 | Arkansas v. Alabama -31 | Top | 9-41 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
Alabama continued their dominance last week with a tougher than expected road win over the scrappy Texas A&M team. With Tennessee on deck it certainly appears that the Roll Tide will coast into November with an undefeated record. They boast the #1 run defense in the FBS and should be able to make things very ugly for the Razorbacks who got beat badly on the road last week at South Carolina and gave up three defensive TD's. QB Austin Allen is a loose cannon and he's listed as questionable. Back-up Cole Kelley may be the QB of the future, but getting your first game action versus Alabama will probably not go well. This certainly feels like a big time blowout. Arkansas can only boast wins over Florida A&M and New Mexico St. Alabama -31 |
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10-14-17 | Texas A&M +3 v. Florida | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 123 h 10 m | Show |
Florida does not have much of a passing game with the absence of WR Antonio Callaway and the injury to WR Tyrie Cleveland. Texas A&M is #1 in the SEC in both sacks per game and tackles for loss per game while also featuring a solid run defense. The Gators are going to have trouble moving the ball and will need help with some short fields. After a bit of a slow start getting used to the speed of the game, QB Kellen Mond has done well. The mobility is also there, but Texas A&M prefers to do their damage on the ground with a deep stable of running backs led by T Williams and K Ford (12 rushing TD's combined). Florida yielded over 200 yards rushing to Michigan and LSU and the Vols put up 183. The Aggies have put up 179+ in each contest other than versus Alabama. WR Christian Kirk is very reliable and a great return man as well. This offense has some dangerous weapons and will eventually crack some big ones. The better team is Texas A&M. They have won the yardage battle (+257) vs their competition this season while the Gators have been outgained by 130 yards. They have both faced similarly tough schedules with the Gators’ being a bit more challenging overall. The Aggies are fresher, more confident and more talented given the lack of depth right now on the Florida roster. Texas A&M +3 |
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10-14-17 | Wyoming +3 v. Utah State | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 46 h 38 m | Show |
The Aggies’ offense has been struggling this season against everyone other than Idaho St and San Jose St. Kent Myers continues to have interception problems and the running game is going nowhere. To make things even more fun they are ranked LAST in the conference that includes San Jose St in sacks per game allowed and tackle for loss per game allowed. That is bad news facing a Wyoming defense that can get after the quarterback and is getting healthy coming off a much needed bye week. Utah St scraped together 288, 212 yards the past two weeks and Wyoming has only allowed 263, 195, 202 yards to the offenses they have faced. QB Josh Allen is a supreme physical talent if you believe NFL scouts and he did lead the team to a division title last season. RB T Woods is averaging 5 yards per run and will hopefully be able to get some yards against a run defense that is allowing 195 yards per game. I have a feeling that Wyoming will use the bye week to their advantage and be able to do enough to make plays against a mid-range defense. I see advantages across the board. QB. HC. Defense. Special teams. Wyoming still has all of their goals in front of them and are fresh and healthier at the right time. Wyoming +3 |
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10-14-17 | Northern Illinois -4.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
QB Daniel Santacaterina apparently had trouble with the weather conditions and NIU decided to go with dual threat QB Marcus Childers most of the way vs Kent St. The weather looks good for this weekend’s contest and we expect to see both of these men in action. Santa is still the more dangerous passer, but Childers gives the defense a different look and more potential problems to think about. RB Jordan Huff has been really good this season and has over 400 yards rushing in five games this season. I expect him to fly over 1,000 yards once MAC play gets into gear. They have not been explosive in the passing game, but showed some flashes of brilliance on the road vs San Diego St. FAU ran for 262 yards and even Colgate ran for 167. Northern Illinois ran for over 300 yards in last season’s match-up. Northern Illinois brings a weapon in DE Sutton Smith to town and he has tallied 7 sacks and 13 tackle for loss. Northern Illinois boasts the #1 pass efficiency defense in the MAC and have only allowed 51% completions whilst picking off 9 passes. The run defense has also been excellent allowing only 2.5 yards per carry despite playing BC, Nebraska and San Diego St. NIU is #1 in the FBS in yards per play allowed and are going to make things difficult for the Bulls. The Bulls have struggled getting to the quarterback this season ranking 7th in the MAC in sacks per game and 9th in tackles for loss. Buffalo is coming off a seven-OT game in which they spilled their guts on the field. This is a tough spot and match-up facing an elite secondary. Northern Illinois -4.5 |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Short week off blowout win for the Eagles. They have been looking really good, but they also have wins over 0-5 NYG, 1-4 LAC, 2-2 WSH and 2-3 ARI. I am seeing a letdown. Their best offensive lineman Lane Johnson is in the concussion protocol and we can’t expect him to start. That’s a terrible blow to what seems to be the best OL in the league right now. The offensive efficiency vastly decreased with his absence in 2016. The only thing that kills Wentz this year is pressure and the Panthers should provide that. Backup Vaitai will have a hard time against Addison and Johnson. Panthers defense has one of the best LB corps in the league and they defend TE's very well – Zach Ertz is is by far the favorite target of Wentz and leads all receivers far ahead with 32 receptions. Wentz is 33/61 when targeting Jeffery and Smith. If you take away Ertz and provide pressure, I wouldn’t be afraid about that matchup for Carolina. On the flip side, the Eagles defense hasn’t been playing to what our expectations were. They rank 25th in NYPPA (6.8) and the Panthers passing offense ranks 9th at 6.9 NYPPA and is the best they face year to date. Cam Newton finally looked like his former self the last two games and that offense should be a threat to the Eagles. Carolina Panthers -3 |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
Finally Mitch Trubisky gets the start. Better accuracy, better pocket presence, better legs than Glennon. And Vikes don’t really have tape on Trubisky. This is a great spot for the Bears at home on MNF. Rumors are that players also asked for a QB change – that’s huge. The team will bring everything on MNF. Bears have a good front seven and I don’t expect the Vikes to get anything done on the ground with a banged up Murray and McKinnon. Cook is just such a huge loss. Keenum had a great game against a decimated TB defense, but now comes back to reality without a run game. Bears will get this thing done in a great spot with a strong run game and a better QB who will get some first downs with his legs. Chicago Bears +4 |
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10-08-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -2 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
I love the Cowboys here despite Green Bay coming off rest. GB are overvalued in this one after home wins vs 1 - 3 teams. Packers are a mediocre road side, just 15-15 straight up against the spread on the road since 2014 and they struggle against good offenses because their defense still isn’t where it should be in order to be dominant. Cowboys are off a backdoor loss and on revenge after losing to GB in the playoffs. Cowboys are also getting healthier on defense (Irving back from susp, more CB depth) while the Packers are still banged up. They don’t have a running back tomorrow, Davante Adams is banged up, both starting tackles were only limited and so on. I think the Cowboys come out extremely focused in this one and use their offense to control the clock and I expect Zeke to have a big game. Dallas Cowboys -2 |
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10-08-17 | Bills +3.5 v. Bengals | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -121 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
The Bengals had a very easy game last week and as you saw with the Ravens last week, coming off blowouts doesn't usually bode well (let down spot). The Bills have a positive turnover margin, whereas the Bengals give up the ball. The Bills match up well with the Bengals because they got a superior matchup in the trenches defensively. Bills are playing great on D overall. McDermott gets everything out of the 4-3. Its tough to see the Bengals moving the ball efficiently against the Bills. They played a banged up Packers D scoring only 17 offensively and beat a bad Browns defense missing their best players. The Bills are a different animal. Note that the Bills offense gets Cordy Glenn back and Tyrod Taylor and crew should be able to muster up enough points to find a cover in this one. Buffalo Bills +3.5 |
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
The Jets look good, the Browns look bad – everyone is grabbing the Jets as a “no-brainer”. Before the season started I had this line at Browns -5.5 and I don't think a lot has changed. The Jets won against the Dolphins who are a bad team who were in a terrible travelling spot. Then they got the Jags without rest off their London trip and almost blew that game. It’s interesting how the perception on the Jets has since adjusted. This is a true road game off a long overtime win and the Browns stay at home. This is the Browns Super Bowl because they know if they can win one game this year it’s this one. Myles Garrett will line up this week, Danny Shelton their best lineman comes back and Jamie Collins also likely comes back. Collins often plays the strong side and in blitz packages. That’s three important players on D coming back that will make the Jets OL look bad. The Jets offense is plain bad and they almost gave the game away last Sunday. They are going to make mistakes and the Browns simply want this one more. Cleveland Browns +1 |
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10-08-17 | Cardinals v. Eagles -6.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
The Cardinals come off a long divisional overtime game to play an early eastern game against a legit team. The Eagles are a top-10 offense by metrics and haven't faced any bad defenses as of yet which should really help them against a stellar Cards D. Play calling was decent vs LA, many play actions and a good mix of run/pass. Smallwood is out today, so look for Blount and Clement to control the ball. Arizona has a decent D by metrics, but they played SF, IND and DET – their numbers are inflated. I am not sold as a top-10 unit yet. Cards OL is one of the worst in the league and will be overmatched by Philly front seven. Cards will struggle moving the ball and their only hope is to create turnovers. I like Philly in this one. Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
The Matthew Stafford bailout streak ends today. Vikes had 3 fumbles off which Lions scored 11 of 14 points and Stafford had 4 dropped interceptions during the game. In terms of metrics, the Lions offense is easy bottom 10 material. Lions have a turnover ratio of +9 thus far which would be +36 over a season. They can’t sustain that. This has to be the week when the Lions luck goes outta the window. Panthers off huge win and back to back road games, but Lions off huge divisional win. Panthers likely getting Kalil and Samuel back which would be huge. It seems that Newtons injury isn’t an issue anymore, because they finally used Newtons legs again on QB draws and power runs etc. That threat combined with McCaffrey is the reason I was so high on that offense. Panthers should win this one if they don’t fumble the ball away three times, but I'll take the generous field goal cover. Carolina Panthers +3 |
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10-07-17 | Arkansas -2 v. South Carolina | Top | 22-48 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 6 m | Show |
Arkansas is sitting at 2-2 and really need a win before tough games with Alabama and Auburn. South Carolina has been in a tailspin after opening the season at 2-0. The Hogs bring a pretty solid run game to town with three 200+ yard rushers and will be pounding the South Carolina defense for four quarters. South Carolina transfer David Williams has five 5 TD's already this season and will be just one of the rotation that hopes to do some damage. QB Austin Allen should be able to hit some big plays in the passing game. The good news is that the Gamecocks’ defense has not been great this season and are ranked 8th in the SEC in yards per play defense, 13th in sacks and #113 in 3rd down defense. Arkansas has scored 40+ in 3/4 games and should be able to very productive on Saturday. The Gamecocks have had a rough time on offense recently and the OL is the main reason. They have no running game and cannot protect the passer. The running game has been horrible (#122 FBS) and we worry about the offense being too one-dimensional. They had eight three and outs vs Texas A&M last week and are a bit banged up on the OL. Losing WR Deebo Samuel was a huge blow to the offense and special teams. There is no doubt that Arkansas is going to hold a sizeable edge in rushing yards. The defenses are probably close to equal, but the Razorbacks’ offense should have more success and more balance. South Carolina has only managed to score 13,17 and 17 in their past three games and the OL is a mess. Arkansas -2 |
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10-07-17 | Miami-FL -3 v. Florida State | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 28 m | Show |
The 3-0 Hurricanes have been very balanced on offense so far (#22 rushing in FBS, #36 passing) and are sure to provide some challenges for the Florida St defense. QB Malik Rozier has been solid with an 8-2 TD to INT ratio to go along with great mobility. RB Mark Walton is averaging 9.2 yards per carry, but has been injury prone. The Canes are glad to have WR Ahmmon Richards back in the fold and he looked really good vs Duke last week. Nobody expected Florida St to lose starting QB Francois to injury and have to deal with a tough schedule riding on the back of a true freshman. James Blackmon looked pretty good to vs NC State and not as good vs Wake Forest. The big issue I see is the offensive line which is ranked last in the FBS in TFL allowed per game. Miami caused all kinds of trouble for Duke with their DL and front 7 so this is going to be a really tough match-up for the Seminoles. The Hurricanes are #2 in the ACC in sacks per game and TFL per game. Florida St has some talent at RB, but it is hard to get things going when the OL is struggling. They are going to take their deep shots on offense, but I find it hard to believe they can score enough points to win without several big plays and/or help from the defense. This feels like the best possible scenario for Miami given their hunger for a win in the series and the unfortunate injury to the starting QB at Florida St. Miami -3 |
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10-07-17 | Kent State v. Northern Illinois -23.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 27 m | Show |
Northern Illinois enter MAC play with a win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers and a near-win over San Diego St. The Huskies are not statistically relevant at this point, but they have played a pretty tough schedule. RB Jordan Huff is an underrated player and WR Blake is developing into a fine top option. Kent St is ranked #115 in the FBS in total defense. Kent St QB Bollas had a fine day passing vs Buffalo last week, but now faces the best secondary in MAC. True freshman Crum hit a 70 yard TD pass last week, but is not going to be much of a threat vs the N Illinois defense. Despite playing a tough schedule the Huskies are #15 in the FBS in total defense. Kent St is #115 in total offense and note that this is a much different offense with Bollas at QB. Expect no running game. Even rock solid RB J Rankin is going to have problems. It is hard to imagine Kent St exceeding their team total. This feels like a blowout. Kent St has played some tough teams so far, but have lost by 53,21 and 38 to FBS teams. The Huskies just might be the best team in the conference. Northern Illinois -23.5 |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs +6 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 0 m | Show |
Last game out, the Bucs moved the ball pretty well against a good defense (Giants) without turnover help. Folk missed 7 points (2 field goals, 1 extra point) and the Bucs had a TD reversed and settle only for a field goal from the 1 yard line (also a missed 2pt conversion). So on a different day they score 36 plus points on the Giants defense. Tampa's personnel presents a major mismatch for NE because they can’t cover Evans/Jackson, Brate/Howard and their front seven is too slow and too non disruptive to stop Doug Martin. New England defense ranks 32nd in tight end yards and 31st in receptions. Pats gave up 26+ at home vs offenses with much less talent than Tampa Bay. Pats look like a no-brainer because they are off a loss, but the line is simply too high. There are many chances for a home cover even though their injury report on defense (Kwon Alexander especially) is concerning. Tampa Bay +6 |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
The Kansas City Chiefs are rolling right now and the last place Kirk Cousins would probably like to play on the road in primetime would be in Arrowhead Stadium. The Washington Redskins have a lot of potential against bad defenses (Rams, Raiders), but they are going to struggle against good defenses. Andy Reid has had one extra day to prepare (Redskins coming off MNF) and despite how good the Redskins looked against the Raiders win Week 3, expect a complete turn around tonight in terms of quality of play. Justin Houston and the Chiefs defense will bait Cousins into making mistakes and the Chiefs weapons (Smith, Hunt, Kelce, Hill) will make enough plays to put up points and cover (if the defense doesn't themselves). The last unbeaten team in the league looks to stay that way with another national tv game rout. Kansas City Chiefs -7 |
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10-01-17 | Lions v. Vikings -1.5 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -118 | 65 h 8 m | Show |
It's easy to think the Lions is the pick here today, but if you read between the lines you'll see that's not the case. Last week, the Lions achieved something not many teams have achieved before. They didn’t commit a turnover, had a +3 turnover advantage and scored 26 points. Since 1989, teams in that situation are 569-12 straight up. The Lions became the 12th team to lose a game like that. Furthermore, since 2011, teams with a turnover margin of +3 and a return touchdown margin of +1 are 124-4 SU. Lions became the 4th team to do that. That game showed how overrated the Lions are. They scored 9 offensive points against the Cardinals through 3 quarters before David Johnson got hurt and the Cards exploded. They survived New York with 122 passing yards on 21 passes against a team that missed its best cornerback. And... they couldn’t even score 20 offensive points at home against the Falcons. Matt Ryan threw 3 picks and the Falcons still dropped 30 points on the Lions. The Vikings have a little revenge here after going 0-2 against the Lions in dramatic fashion in 2016. The offense is completely revamped and even though Case Keenum had an easy game last week against a decimated defense, the overall quality of the offense is really improved; the interior as a whole is playing at a high level. Dalvin Cook is a complete beast and Diggs/Thielen are probably a top-5 duo in the league. They can attack every coverage, are great route runners and have good hands. I expect the Lions defense to get exposed again this week and Keenum only has to execute and feed Dalvin Cook a lot because the Lions are poor at defending the run and bad at getting tackles and angles on the second level. Cook should have a great game. Add a possible defensive score and this should be an easy cover. Minnesota Vikings -1.5 |
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10-01-17 | Titans -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 14-57 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 12 m | Show |
If this is the team that everyone thinks is going to make big strides this year, they need to win games like this and take a hold on the AFC South. The Titans can't afford any steps backwards after showing their cards last week versus the Seahawks. Expect a huge effort today from their entire team, losing won't be an option like it has been in the past. Texans defense has quite a bit in injury troubles and on tape they struggle to defend the run and the pass. Titans should just run over them with their two-headed monster in Henry & Murray and they also have a favourable QB matchup if the game gets tight. Note: the favorite when these teams go head-to-head is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Tennessee Titans -2.5 |
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10-01-17 | Saints -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
Coming off games against the 0-3 L.A. Chargers and the last place in the Power Rankings N.Y. Jets, the Dolphins defense rank dead-last in passer rating and dead-last in completion percentage. Now they play against an offense that is clicking on all cylinders. Drew Brees has been playing sensational during the first three weeks despite being 1-2. The offense gets Willie Snead back from suspension this week which should help stretch the field. This offense is loaded – Ted Ginn’s speed opens up a lot of seems for Thomas, Fleener and Snead. The only thing that is still holding back the Saints offense a bit is 32-year-old Adrian Peterson. Saints should move on from him and make Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram the focus point. However, I don’t see how the Dolphins prevent the Saints from scoring a ton in this game. I don’t see many punts from the Saints. The Saints flew directly to London from Carolina on Sunday. They have a full week at London to get adjusted to the time change and the new environment. The Dolphins stayed in Miami and flew out Thursday after the practice. In a week in that Miami needs to make dramatic changes, the Saints are in the much better situation when they can get adjusted to the time change. I think this is a big advantage for them. New Orleans Saints -3 |
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09-30-17 | San Jose State v. UNLV -13.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 49 h 28 m | Show |
*GAME OF THE MONTH* The struggling 1-4 San Jose St Spartans visit Las Vegas on Saturday night to face the potential UNLV Rebels in Mountain West Action. UNLV opened the season with a very bad loss to Howard, but struck back with a crushing road win over the Idaho Vandals. They followed that up with a cover vs Ohio St last week. UNLV has a very underrated offense (31.6 points per game last season) and they should be able to shred though a Spartans stop unit that has allowed 42,56,54 and 61 points vs their four FBS opponents. QB Armani Rogers and the running of RB Lexington Thomas (425 yards, 8.5 yards per carry in three games) are very dynamic. WR Devonte Boyd is a devastating weapon in the passing game. Overall the Rebels are the #8 rushing team in the FBS despite having played Ohio St. San Jose St is simply bad on defense and spend way too much time on the field. They are #125 in rushing defense and #119 in the FBS in total defense. The Spartans offense has been horrendous and they will be without the only dynamic QB on the roster in Montel Aaron. Josh Love will likely get the start and their is no running game or passing game to speak of as we go to press. It seems unlikely that San Jose St will be able to cause many problems for UNLV. UNLV -13.5 |
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09-30-17 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech +8 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
The Hokies are now 14-4 in 18 games under new HC Justin Fuente and have to feel that they are ready to compete with the bog boys. The Hokies have been rock solid on defense (#28 FBS) despite playing two good offenses (West Virginia, East Carolina). Virginia Tech is ranked #6 in the FBS in 3rd down defense and are the only team in the FBS that has not given up a rushing TD yet this season. QB Joshua Jackson has been great so far. 65% completion rate and a 11-1 TD to INT ratio. Of course this week is by far his biggest challenge facing a superb Clemson defense. The good news is that the Hokies have been very balanced on offense this season (#33 rushing in FBS, #30 passing) and will at least give the Tigers a lot of things to think about on defense. The Hokies will need to get the ball in the hands of star WR Cam Phillips as often as possible in this game as he is a true game changer. Virginia Tech will have to be patient and take advantage of their opportunities to score. Note: Clemson PK Greg Huegel is out for the season so this may cause Clemson to take one too many chances on 4th down situations in VT territory. Virginia Tech +8 |
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09-30-17 | North Texas v. Southern Miss -7.5 | Top | 43-28 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 59 m | Show |
Southern Miss lost to Kentucky in week one even though they held the yardage advantage and then won their next two games over Southern and ULM (covering on both). The Eagles have a very balanced offense that should be able to move the ball effectively throughout the game. QB Kwadra Griggs has been excellent so far with a 7-1 TD to INT ratio and RB Ito Smith has 333 yards rushing and 14 receptions. The WR corps is underrated, the Eagles have 4 players with 100+ yards receiving. The Eagles’ defense is solid and are ranked #6 in the FBS in total defense, #39 against the run, #3 in pass efficiency defense and #2 in 3rd down defense. The North Texas defense is ranked #79 in the FBS and #100 in 3rd down defense. Over the course of 60 minutes it feels like Southern Miss is going to get a lot more stops and pull away. Southern Miss -7.5 |
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09-24-17 | Raiders -3 v. Redskins | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -115 | 81 h 59 m | Show |
The Raiders are a west coast team that plays in the pacific time zone and the Redskins play in the eastern time zone. When the game starts, the body clock of the Redskins players is at 8.30 PM EST, the body clock of the Raiders is at 5.30 PM EST. As the game moves on, the bodies of the Redskins calm down towards sleeping time, whereas the Raiders are still fresh. That has a high impact on the game. Going back to 1994, pacific time teams playing eastern time teams on the road on SNF or MNF: 21-5 ATS, outscoring the home teams 14.7 – 9.9 in the second half. Going back to 1989, road teams score 10.0 points per average in the second half and get outscored by 0.7 points by the home side. In the body clock games, pacific teams score 4.7 points more and outscore the home teams by 5.5 points more than in standard road games. Not only do the Raiders have a biological advantage, they also have an offense that can outscore the Redskins easily. The Redskins defense doesn’t have the firepower to compete with the Raiders, period. I would be shocked if the Raiders stay below 24 in this one, I am rather looking at 28-35 points. It will depend on whether the Redskins are able to outscore the Raiders at home and I doubt it. Jordan Reed got injured, didn’t practice on Wednesday and word is that he doesn’t look healthy. That’s a huge downgrade for the Redskins offense because Reed is Cousins’ go-to guy. Reed saw 14 targets in two games and caught 6/6 passes against the Rams. Over the last two seasons, the Redskins are 3-5 SU and scored 20 or less points in half those games when Jordan Reed didn’t play. Terrelle Pryor has had dropping issues so far, Josh Doctson is still on a snap count. Raiders CB Sean Smith had an off-season in 2016 off his new contract but he played much better against the Titans and rookie Gareon Conley played well against the Jets. If the Raiders are able to lock down the WR's and Reed doesn’t play, it’s gonna be a long day for Cousins. I think the Raiders will have their tough stretch during the second half of the season against strong defenses, but for now we just gotta ride them against mediocre defenses. Oakland Raiders -3 |
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09-24-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
I still don’t know how the Chargers lost last week because they played great on offense and played good on defense. The Chiefs have produced offensive metrics over the first two weeks that aren’t sustainable. They will regress over the next couple of weeks and this time they have to travel to Los Angeles and the Chargers are in allin mode facing a 0-3 and a realistic end to their season. They will bring it this week. The Eagles had a lot of chances to win against KC, but Wentz’s accuracy and Pedersons play-calling held them back. The Chargers will have a lot of success offensively and will use the loss of Eric Berry. Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry should have a really good game. Eagles targeted Ertz 10 times last week and we could see 10-15 targets for Gates and Henry, but with better accuracy from a better QB. After two wins with sensational metrics, the Chiefs should come down to earth here. I don’t like that Jason Verrett is still not practicing, but the Chiefs don’t have the type of route runners that can expose not having Berry on board. Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 |
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09-24-17 | Texans v. Patriots -13 | Top | 33-36 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 32 m | Show |
Deshaun Watson is not an NFL QB (yet). We saw it in the preseason, we saw it against Jacksonville and we saw it at Cincinnati. He has bad accuracy, a weak arm, throws with low velocity, completely panics and abandons his footwork when under pressure. The Patriots are going to have a good game plan against him because they already watched him in joint practices in August. Rookie QBs are 0-8 at New England in the Belichick era, throwing 5 INT to 16 INT. They are going to contain him in the pocket and have a spy because they can aggressively cover every receiver not named DeAndre Hopkins. They will do the same as they did against PIT in the playoffs. Double-team Hopkins and make Watson beat them on other receivers. Bill O’Brien once again showed that he is a terrible play caller and completely non-creative when it comes to offensive scheming. Hopkins had every snap on the same side of the field and almost always ran the same routes. Belichick is goint to bait Watson to throw to Hopkins and block all the running lanes he can possibly get. I would be completely surprised if the Texans scored a touchdown this week. On the other side, the Texans don’t have enough quality on defense at this point. They lost Kevin Johnson (4-6 weeks), Johnathan Joseph is hurt, Brian Cushing is suspended and they don’t have a quality SS that can match up with Gronkowski (I predict that he plays). This is still a good defense, but they don’t have the tools to match up with the versatility of the Patriots offense. New England -13 |
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