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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-26-23 | Bills -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
#121 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Both teams plan to play their starters in this game which gives the Bills a solid edge. How long the regulars play is in question for both teams, but even when the starters come out, Buffalo is the deeper and better team and laying under a FG is a decent play here. The Bills are coming off a 27-15 loss @ Pittsburgh last weekend. In that game, the Bills outgained the Steelers 5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP but Buffalo had 13 penalties (just 4 for Pittsburgh) and they turned the ball over 4 times. 17 of Pittsburgh’s 25 points came on drives of 25, 13, and -1 yards. A week earlier the Bills beat Indy and outgained the Colts by 1.2 YPP so they’ve outgained both opponents by more than 1.0 YPP. Chicago is also 1-1 (loss vs Colts & win vs Titans) but they’ve been outgained in both games (total yards). Our word is Justin Fields continues to struggle with accuracy in camp and while he is 3 for 3 in the preseason, 2 of his passes were short dump offs to WR Moore and RB Herbert that went for big yardage (both TD’s). We like the better, deeper team to close out the preseason with a win. Lay the small number with Buffalo. |
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08-19-23 | Raiders v. Rams +3.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
#426 ASA PLAY ON 8* LA Rams +3.5 over Las Vegas Raiders, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Rams head coach McVay set the precedent for sitting nearly everyone in the preseason a few years ago. He decided to sit his starters and many of his key reserves for the entire exhibition schedule. That will change this year. McVay, offensive coordinator LaFleur, and GM Snead have all stated their approach to this year’s preseason slate will be different. Last year they were coming off a Super Bowl win and had the luxury of sitting guys. This year, the Rams are coming off a 5 win season and many of the starting spots are up for grabs which should lead to a competitive situation for LA in the preseason with key players fighting for spots. While we expect the Rams to play many of their regulars, the Raiders have stated they will sit their starters. The Rams come into this one off a loss last week vs the Chargers. The Raiders are off a deceiving blowout 34-7 win over the Niners. In that game, despite the final score, Vegas was outgained and averaged only 4.5 YPP in the win. Rookie QB O’Connell from Purdue, was lights out completing 15 of 18 passes. We expect him to come back to earth a bit this week after struggling in their joint practices with the Rams this week. San Fran gifted the Raiders many of their points last week as the final 4 scoring drives by Las Vegas averaged just 19 yards. We would doubt QB Stafford plays for the Rams here but Stetson Bennett and Brett Rypien weren’t bad completing 20 of 35 for a TD with the offense scoring 17 points. The Rams didn’t play as bad as their final score last week while the Raiders didn’t play as well as their score may have indicated. We look for McVay to put an emphasis on this game coming off a loss and we like the Rams getting points at home. |
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08-12-23 | Chargers v. Rams -3 | 34-17 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 2 m | Show | |
#130 ASA PLAY ON 8* LA Rams -3 over LA Chargers, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Rams head coach McVay set the precedent for sitting nearly everyone in the preseason a few years ago. He decided to sit his starters and many of his key reserves for the entire exhibition schedule. That will change this year. McVay, offensive coordinator LaFleur, and GM Snead have all stated their approach to this year’s preseason slate will be different. Last year they were coming off a Super Bowl win and had the luxury of sitting guys. This year, the Rams are coming off a 5 win season and many of the starting spots are up for grabs which should lead to a competitive situation for LA in the preseason with key players fighting for spots. QB Stafford, WR Cupp, and DT Donald are a few that won’t play but many others will. QB Rypien will get the start and he has some decent experience with 130 career NFL pass attempts. He will be followed by rookie Stetson Bennett who won back to back National Championships with Georgia. Chargers head coach Staley has been adamant about resting his starters during the preseason and that will most likely continue this year as much of their lineup is already set. LAC is also learning a new offensive system under coordinator Kellen Moore who came over in the off-season from Dallas. They will be doing so with Easton Stick (1 career pass attempt) and Max Duggan (rookie) handling the QB position. The Bolts are also dealing with a rash of injuries, especially on the defensive line, and an illness spread through some of the team this week. This is a bigger game for the Rams coming off a 5 win season while the Chargers are eyeing another run to the playoffs. We’ll lay the FG and take the Rams here. |
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08-11-23 | Steelers -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 40 h 28 m | Show |
#109 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with the Steelers favored by 1.5 and has jumped a bit. We like them here at -3 or lower and right now (Wednesday evening) the line is set at -2.5 at most shops. We like Pittsburgh’s QB rotation quite a bit which is key in the pre-season with backups and 3rd stringers getting a lot of time. They will start with Kenny Pickett who was solid last year as a rookie throwing for nearly 2500 yards on 63% completions. Pickett struggled a bit early in the season but Pitt won 5 of their final 6 games last season and their lone loss during that stretch was 16-14 vs Baltimore, a game Pickett sat out the majority of in concussion protocol. Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph are fighting for the back up spot and both have plenty of NFL experience, including starting experience. We have Pittsburgh’s offensive line & overall defense rated ahead of Tampa’s entering this season. The Bucs will start Baker Mayfield and QB and then move to Kyle Trask. Mayfield has been up & down at best in his career (61% career completion percentage) and Trask has attempted only 9 career passes in the NFL. The coaching edge is heavily in Pittsburgh’s favor with Mike Tomlin over Tampa’s Todd Bowles. Tomlin has put an emphasis on performing well in the pre-season with a SU record of 15-4 the last 5 seasons. Bowles was 0-3 SU in the pre-season last year, his first as Tampa’s head coach. Pitt beat the Bucs 20-18 last year in the regular season and that was with Brady at QB for TB. We like the Steelers to win this one by more than a FG. |
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08-27-22 | Bears v. Browns -5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
#126 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 7 PM ET - New Chicago head coach Eberflus announced this week that they will play their starters for much of the first half. What happened after he announced that? The line went from Cleveland -4 up to -5 and -5.5. That’s because the Browns also plan on playing their starters for some of the first half including QB Brissett who has yet to play in the preseason. Browns head coach Stefanski said he wants to get Brissett some extended time with the starters so he is ready when the season rolls around in a few weeks. Our view on this game is if both sets of starters play extensively in the first half – big edge Cleveland. After the break, who has the advantage in the 2nd half? Cleveland as well as they are deeper and have the better QB rotation with Dobbs and Rosen. The Bears are 2-0 in the preseason but their offensive numbers have been poor averaging just 4.2 yards per play. That’ll be a problem in this game vs a deep Cleveland defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year and in 2 preseason games they’ve allowed just 4.5 YPP. The Browns are 1-1 in the preseason but they’ve outgained both of their opponents by nearly a full 1.0 YPP. Their loss was here at home last week when the Eagles scored a TD late in the 4th quarter to pick up a 21-20 win. The Browns are at home again this week off that tough loss while Chicago is on the road for the 2nd straight game after traveling to Seattle last week. The Bears will really struggle offensively in this game and we like Cleveland to win by a TD+ |
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08-20-22 | Broncos v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 15-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
#412 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -6.5 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - After last week’s win, the Bills have now won 9 straight NFL preseason games which is the 2nd best current streak behind the Ravens 21 straight games. It’s obvious that head coach Sean McDermott puts an emphasis on winning preseason games. He has stated he will play his starters “a healthy amount” this week including QB Josh Allen. Last week in their 27-24 win over Indianapolis, McDermott sat most of his starters and the Bills had 5 turnovers and still pulled out a win. They outgained the Colts, who played more of their starters including starting QB Matt Ryan, by 1.6 yards per play. Denver will not play their starters in this game according to new head coach Nathaniel Hackett who says he “isn’t a fan of the preseason”. Josh Johnson will start at QB followed by Brett Rypien for Denver who beat Dallas 17-7 last week but outgained the Cowboys by only 8 yards. We have one of the best teams in the NFL playing their starters extensively here vs a bunch of back ups for Denver. Laying under a TD is a solid situation. Take Buffalo. |
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08-11-22 | Titans v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 39 m | Show |
#108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Ravens -3.5 over Tennessee Titans, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Lots of things going for the Ravens in this one. First of all it’s quite obvious that head coach John Harbaugh wants to win in the pre-season. His well documented and talked about lifetime record 40-12 SU record in NFLX including 20 straight wins dating back to the 2016 season! They’ve won 12 of those 20 games by double digits and their average margin of victory in their 20 game winning streak is +13 PPG. Not only are the Ravens winning NFLX games at an incredible rate, they are covering to the tune of 25-5 ATS their last 30. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel hasn’t shown much determination the pre-season winning just 4 of his 11 games since taking over the Titans in 2018. The QB advantage also is heavily in favor of Baltimore in this game. Tennessee starter Tannehill didn’t take a single snap in the pre-season last year and we doubt he will play in this game. That leaves Logan Woodside, who has thrown 3 career passes in the NFL, and rookie Malik Willis to guide this offense. Baltimore will most likely go without starting QB Jackson as well but we like their depth at that position much better. Tyler Huntley is the back up and he threw for over 1,000 yards last year taking over for Jackson when he was injured. After Huntley it will be Brett Hundley who has throw for almost 2,000 yards in his career. Tennessee is banged up in the defensive backfield and had to add 2 safeties to the roster this week so they have enough depth for this game. We’ll lay it Baltimore at home on Thursday night. |
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08-28-21 | Bucs -3.5 v. Texans | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 61 h 57 m | Show |
#117 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -3.5 over Houston, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Super Bowl champs step into this game with an 0-2 pre-season record. QB Brady has played one series the entire pre-season and the starters have been very limited. In their game last weekend vs Tennessee, most of the starters didn’t even see the field. That changes this week. Tampa head coach Bruce Arians stated he needs to get his regulars some extended playing time in preparation for their NFL opener vs Dallas. "We can't go against Dallas and all of sudden play game speed. We've got to have some game speed under our belt before we show up against the Cowboys,” Arians said this week. Houston, on the other hand, is 2-0 in the pre-season beating the Packers and the Cowboys. Their defense has yet to play against a legit QB having faced Jordan Love, Kurt Benkert, Ben DiNucci, Garrett Gilbert, and Cooper Rush so far in their 2 NFLX games. Now they’ll have to face Brady and the Tampa starters for an extended period of time. Despite their 2 wins the Houston offense, still without QB Watson, has averaged just 4.4 YPP. Now they will face perhaps the top defense in the NFL with their QB rotation of Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Driskel, and Davis Mills. If the Tampa starters play as planned, we basically have one of the top teams in the NFL (Bucs) facing one of the worst teams in the NFL (Texans). We’ll lay it in this game and take Tampa to cover. |
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08-21-21 | Colts v. Vikings -1.5 | Top | 12-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
#422 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -1.5 over Indianapolis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This line opened as a pick-em and immediately jumped to Vikings -2.5 for good reason. Minnesota looked terrible in last week’s 33-6 home loss to the Broncos and we expect a big bounce back performance here. Head coach Mike Zimmer didn’t play any of his starters last week but was still extremely upset with his team’s effort & performance and let them know it. They’ve had a very good week of practice and this team will play with some urgency after last week’s result. Zimmer also plans on playing most of his starters on Saturday. He’s always put a lot of emphasis on winning pre-season games with a 20-7 overall record which includes last week’s loss. Indy takes the road after beating Carolina on a last second FG in their opener on Monday. The Colts had to score 10 points in the final 7:00 minutes to come from behind and get the win. Now they are on a short week having been the only game last Sunday. Indy never led in that game until they kicked the game winning FG with 7 seconds remaining. The Colts had more yardage overall but also ran 21 more offensive snaps compared to the Panthers and still barely won the game. We know their starting QB Wentz is still not ready to go after an injury and won’t play in this game. Minnesota will definitely be the more motivated team in this NFLX game and we expect them to win by more than a FG. Take the Vikings. |
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08-14-21 | Chiefs v. 49ers -2.5 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 136 h 29 m | Show |
#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -2 over Kansas City, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - We love the Niners QB rotation for pre-season purposes and they have a big edge in that regard. KC obviously has Mahomes, however he’s coming off a leg injury during the playoffs last year and you can bet Andy Reid will be very careful with him. Even if Mahomes plays, which we’re not 100% sure he will, we expect maybe 1 series. After that it’s Chad Henne and after that it’s 2 rookie free agents. San Fran, on the other hand, has a QB battle on their hands. Starter Jimmy Garoppolo is being pushed by 1st round draft pick Trey Lance and word is both are playing well. Because there is a QB battle for the Niners, we expect both to play as if their jobs are on the line. Even their 3rd and 4th stringers behind center are solid with Josh Rosen (former 1st round pick) and Nate Sudfeld who has some experience coming over from Philly. This is a big game for the Niners at home. They are coming off a poor, injury riddled season just one year after making it to the Super Bowl and losing to this Chiefs team. SF had more injuries than any other team in the NFL last season which led to their 6-10 record which included only 1 win at home. You can bet they want to get this pre-season home opener vs the team that knocked them off in the Super Bowl. This one isn’t a big deal for KC. They’ve been to back to back Super Bowls and HC Andy Reid actually has mentioned he hopes his players can “reset” so to speak after 2 long grueling (physically & mentally) seasons. He wants them ready for the regular season and this game is meaningless to the Chiefs. Reid has proven over time he’s not into winning in the pre-season with a 39-45 record since 2003 and only 3 winning seasons in the pre-season during that span. We like San Francisco to get this win at home. |
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08-24-19 | Texans v. Cowboys | Top | 0-34 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
#271 ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston Texans (pick-em) over Dallas Cowboys, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET We have been thoroughly unimpressed with Dallas this pre-season. They are without 2 of their top offensive weapons (RB Elliot and WR Cooper) and they have scored just 23 total points in 2 games this preseason. The Boys were beaten by San Francisco in their opener and then struggled to top the LA Rams last week, a team that is playing NONE of their key players this preseason. Dallas was outgained in both of those games. While the 3rd preseason game is normally a dress rehearsal so to speak for the regular season, the Cowboys will be without 5 players who were All Pros last season. Head coach Jason Garrett also showed last year that he doesn’t necessarily view this game as one to get his starters ready for the regular season as he sat many of his key players in their 27-3 loss to Arizona in week 3 of the preseason. Garrett has also proven he has very little interest in the preseason with a 13-22 lifetime record including just 6-16 since 2014. Unlike Dallas, we have been impressed with Houston. Their offense is clicking scoring 56 points in their 2 games topping 400 yards in both. Dallas has yet to get to 300 yards in either of their 2 games. It looks like Houston will take this game much more seriously and we expect their regulars to get solid time in this game. That includes QB Deshaun Watson who has only thrown 7 passes this preseason. Head coach Bill O’Brien wants to get him ready for the opener in a few weeks. The Texans also have a strong rotation behind Watson as Joe Webb has already thrown for almost 500 yards in the first 2 preseason games. Unlike Garrett, Houston head man O’Brien seems to put more emphasis on the preseason as he has a 13-8 record. The Texans are viewed as the little guy in this state behind the Cowboys giving their players and coaches a little extra motivation even if it is just the preseason. The Texans will want to win this game. We’ll side with Houston on Saturday night. |
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08-23-19 | Bills v. Lions +1.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 10 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFLX PLAY ON Detroit +1.5 over Buffalo, Friday at 8 PM ET Lots of people jumping on 2-0 Buffalo over 0-2 Detroit here. In fact, as of this writing well over 70% of the wagers have come in on Buffalo. We’ll go contrarian here and take Detroit to win their first pre-season game. The Lions are 0-2 but faced 2 of the better teams in the NFL in New England and Houston. Their defense has allowed 61 points in those 2 games, however both of their opponents were top 12 in scoring offense last year. Now they face a Buffalo offense that averaged only 16.8 PPG last year ranking them 30th in the NFL. After struggling the first 2 games we look for Detroit’s defense to play much better at home on Friday. Offensively the Lions looked MUCH better last week. They threw up a stinker in week 1 scoring only 3 points vs the Patriots. Last week @ Houston, the Lions put up 23 points and averaged 6.4 yards per play which was better than the 5.7 YPP put up by the Texans. Back up QB David Fales played very well going 12 of 19 for 226 yards and 2 TD’s. This week we expect starting QB Matthew Stafford to get his first action of the pre-season. While head coach Matt Patricia has not stated that Stafford will play, we can take a look at last year when Patricia had him playing into the 3rd quarter in Detroit’s pre-season week 3 win over Tampa Bay. While most NFL head coaches treat this as a trial run for the regular season, Patricia goes even further as the week leading up to this game is laid out exactly as it would be for a regular season games. That includes film study of upcoming opponent. Buffalo is 2-0 but they have yet to face a starting QB as Indy was without Luck and last week Carolina was without Cam Newton. The Bills are on the road for the 2nd straight week and we have a feeling this has now become a very big game for Patricia and the Lions after starting 0-2. This line opened with Detroit -2.5 which is where our projected line was as well but it now has moved to +1 because most are on Buffalo as we stated above. We like the value and the situation here. Take Detroit. |
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08-15-19 | Packers v. Ravens -4 | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
ASA 8* NFLX PLAY ON Baltimore -4 over Green Bay, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET These two are both 1-0 in the pre-season but they reached that result in drastically different ways. Baltimore absolutely dominated Jacksonville shutting out the Jags 29-0. The Raven defense, who led the league in total defense last year, held the Jags offense to just 112 total yards on 2.1 yards per play. Baltimore’s defense is deep and played well throughout as Jacksonville crossed midfield just ONCE the entire game and that was just barely making it to the Raven’s 49-yard line. Offensive QB Lamar Jackson looked very comfortable leading the Ravens to 10 points in 3 possessions. Look for Jackson and the starters to play into the 2nd quarter this week. Green Bay also picked up a win last week vs Houston. However, it was far from dominating as the Packers won 28-26 but were outgained by the Texans 412 to 237. Green Bay benefitted from 4 Houston turnovers including a muffed punt for a TD. The Pack scored 4 TD’s however 2 of those came on a fumble recovery as noted above and another came on a 3-yard drive after a turnover. Aaron Rodgers will make his preseason debut here but only expect a few series. He’s also running a brand new offense under head coach Matt LaFleur so don’t expect everything to go smoothly as he learns the system. Baltimore is the deeper team, especially on defense, and we know they want to win this game. Head coach John Harbaugh has proven the preseason is important to him as the Ravens have won 14 straight preseason games under Harbaugh! 8 of those 14 wins have come by at least 9 points. They get another here. Lay the points with the host in this one. |
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08-09-19 | Vikings v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 34-25 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA play on: New Orleans Saints (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings, Friday 8PM ET – The handle on this game is certainly backing the Vikings as more tickets and money have flowed in on Minnesota. But we are contrarian here and will side with the home team Saints. In our opinion the biggest factor that favors the Saints is the quarterback rotation as former Vike Teddy Bridgewater will play a large portion of this game and then be followed by Taysom Hill. Bridgewater is a former starter and pro bowl players and should have plenty of success against the Vikings #2’s. Hill has some great preseason statistics and we won’t see a drastic drop-off when he enters the game. The same can’t be said for the Vikings who lack QB depth at this time and will give Sean Mannion, Kyle Sloter and Jake Browning the opportunity to win the back up job. The Viking struggled with their O-line a year ago and have made some changes up front which will take time to mesh as a unit. Minnesota was 18th in offensive efficiency a year ago and won’t be ready until the opener. The same can’t be said about the Saints offense that is deep and coming off a season where they ranked 4th overall in OEFF. Overall the Vikings were a better defensive unit than the Saints a year ago, but the separation isn’t drastic as Minnesota ranked 4th in DEFF, the Saints were 11th. Minnesota has some solid exhibition records under Zimmer but the offensive edge for the Saints later in this game is too much to overlook. Fade the public and bet New Orleans. |
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08-17-18 | Bills +3.5 v. Browns | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Buffalo +3.5 over Cleveland, Friday at 7:30 PM ET on NFL Network Taking teams that lose in week 1 of the pre-season vs teams that won in week 1 has been a long time solid strategy. Those teams that lose in week 1 are 100-58 ATS vs teams that win in week 1 dating way back to the 1994 season. It’s a logical trend as teams that don’t have a win yet in the pre-season would be more apt to put a higher emphasis on winning the game. That’s the case here with Buffalo losing at home to Carolina last week while Cleveland picked up a win @ the NY Giants. We like the fact that Buffalo actually dominated Carolina statistically despite the loss. The Bills racked up well over 400 total yards on 6.9 yards per play. They put up nearly 100 yards more than Carolina. Their QB’s (Peterman, McCarron, and Allen) were solid completing 25 of their 39 pass attempts for 338 yards. The Bills led 17-7 at half and blew the lead in the 28-23 loss. You can bet they’ve emphasized closing strong after letting Carolina come from behind in the 2nd half last week. After finishing 0-16 last year, the Browns really wanted to get a win in their NFLX opener and they did topping the Giants 20-10. We could see a bit of a letdown here after getting that much wanted win last week. In that game the Browns rushed for only 50 yards on 33 carries (1.5 YPC). The Cleveland defense allowed the Giants to roll up 134 yards rushing on nearly 6 YPC. That tells us the Browns lost the battle up front despite winning the game. Cleveland also had 13 penalties for 141 yards which is a red flag (poorly coached team). Let’s face it, while many expect Cleveland to be improved, the fact is this team has won just ONE game the last two seasons combined. Now they are favored by a full FG plus vs a team that made the playoffs last year. We like Buffalo to get the win here so we’ll grab the points. |
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