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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-31-23 | Rangers +100 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -100 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 8:03 PM ET - This game is essentially a bullpen game as Mantiply is just an opener for the Diamondbacks and Heaney has lasted a total of only 6 innings his 4 post-season appearances (2 starts). So if we talk about team facts here, the Rangers have won all 9 of their road post-season games! Based on the way Texas has played away from home in this post-season, they are loaded with confidence and the same can not be said for a Diamondbacks team that so often has struggled to score many runs in these playoffs. We look for that road team trend to reach 10 in a row as the Rangers resume their long-term pattern of consistently crushing the ball away from home. In the ALCS, Texas delivered that huge 9th inning to put the finishing touches on a huge Game 6 win which carried right into a Game 7 dominating win! Those 2 wins to close out the series at Houston have already carried momentum into their first travels in the World Series as well as they jumped out 3-0 in the 3rd inning yesterday and then hung on for the 3-1 win. The Rangers lineup has proven to be a very confident group away from home in this post-season and will likely hit much better today too after a surprisingly quiet effort yesterday. Texas rolls again here with our computer math model showing a strong probability of another road win in this one. Take the Rangers |
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10-30-23 | Rangers -104 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
#945 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -110 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 8:03 PM ET - Look at this line today and tell us nothing is "fishy" here with this one! The fact is one could argue that the Diamondbacks, at least based on stats so far in this post-season for the pitchers involved here, have the much bigger pitching advantage today in this match-up, How is this line almost a pick'em when Brandon Pfaadt has a 2.70 ERA in the post-season and Max Scherzer has a 9.45 ERA in the post-season? Yes...we are saying the same thing here! How is this possible? Well the fact is that Scherzer has more rest entering this start then he did entering his prior start and that will make a difference here! Also, Pfaadt really struggled for much of this season before now enjoying some post-season success. Don't be surprised if he matches up much worse with the Rangers here than he did with the Phillies. Overall, Pfaadt is not a guy with dominating stuff. Also, let's now look at other factors here like the fact that the Rangers have won all 8 of their road post-season games! This is a pivotal Game 3 in this series and yet this line seems funny to us and we look for that road team trend to reach 9 in a row as the Rangers continue to crush the ball away from home. In the ALCS, Texas delivered that huge 9th inning to put the finishing touches on a huge Game 6 win which carried right into a Game 7 dominating win and those 2 wins to close out the series at Houston will carry momentum into their first travels in the World Series as well. The Rangers lineup has proven to be a very confident group away from home in this post-season and Texas rolls again here after the ugly Game 2 loss at home. Take the Rangers |
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10-27-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
#941/942 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday at 8:07 PM ET - The Rangers have a retractable roof ballpark. That helps with the brutal summers in Texas to keep the heat out. Also, when the roof is open, the Rangers have hit much better. That is why Astros manager Dusty Baker was mad during the ALCS when a decision was made for the roof to be open when he had been told it would not be. It turned out not to matter to the Astros as they won every game in Arlington in the series and the Rangers won every game in Houston. However, the point as it relates to run totals is that this ballpark has been proven to be less hitter-friendly when the roof is closed. The expectation here, due to rain in the area tonight, is that the roof will be closed. Couple that with two teams that do not see each other much in regular seasons plus the jitters of a Game 1 World Series match-up for two teams not usually in the showcase event and you have a great set-up for a light-hitting Game 1. Also, the bullpens for each of these teams got the job done well when called upon in their prior series and then, on top of that, you have a great starting pitching match-up here in Game 1. Zac Gallen struggled a bit with the Phillies but, even including those stats, he has allowed an average of just 2.5 runs per start in his last 6 starts overall. The Rangers Nathan Eovaldi has been great and is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in this post-season. He also is coming off a 12-5 regular season in which he produced a 3.63 ERA. Our computer math model is projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-23-23 | Rangers +113 v. Astros | Top | 11-4 | Win | 113 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
#933 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers +110 over Houston Astros, Monday at 8:03 PM ET - Look at the two lines today and tell us nothing is "fishy" here with this one! The fact is one could argue that the Astros, at least based on stats so far in this post-season for the pitchers involved here, have the bigger pitching advantage today than the Phillies. In that NLCS match-up, Nola has been great but Kelly is also a solid starter. That said, how are the Phillies nearly a $2 favorite but this line is almost a pick'em when Javier has a 1.69 ERA in the post-season and Scherzer has an 11.25 ERA in the post-season? Yes...we are saying the same thing here! How is this possible? Well the fact is if you look at the prior match-up between these two starters, Scherzer had trouble with 4 Astros hitters while Javier gave up hits to 3 Rangers hitters. In other words, the difference was not so great! That said, look at other factors here like the fact that the road team has incredibly won all 6 games in this series! In fact, the road team is now 9-0 in the Astros last 9 post-season games! This is a huge Game 7 and yet this line seems funny to us and we look for that road team trend to reach 10 in a row as Houston is eliminated from the post-season. Texas delivering that huge 9th inning to put the finishing touches on a huge Game 6 win is absolutely going to carry momentum into Game 7 as well. Texas believes even more now and they can win this thing! Take the Rangers |
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10-20-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros, Friday at 5:07 PM ET - This is high-intensity playoff baseball now with this ALCS now tied up at 2 games apiece as the Astors have rallied from down 2-0 to take both the games here in Arlington to tie this series up. That makes this a very critical Game 5 match-up and you have the same pitchers involved that we saw in Game 1 of this series. That game was a 2-0 Rangers win and, in all likelihood, this will be another tight low-scoring battle here! Verlander and Montgomery were great in that Game 1 battle and we expect more of the same here. Again, you are talking about both lineups possibly being a little tight at the plate in this one. With the series tied up at 2, there is a lot of pressure with the importance of taking this Game 5 as it is a "swing game" in the series. The 3-2 series lead is so critical in a 7-game series. Off 3 straight games that have totaled at least 9 runs with the last two totaling 13 runs each. However, this total is set at 8.5 with good reason. These lineups combined for only 11 hits in Game 1 and we anticipate another pitchers duel here as both Verlander and Montgomery have looked great in their multiple outings in this post-season. Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-19-23 | Astros v. Rangers -110 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -110 over Houston Astros, Thursday at 8:03 PM ET - Our money is on the Rangers to bounce back here after losing Game 3 at home yesterday. Texas had won all 7 of their post-season games before that loss. Andrew Heaney expected to start for Texas in this one and he held the Astros to only 3 earned runs on just 9 hits in 15 innings in his first 3 starts against them this season. Then he struggled some in the final start versus Houston so he is out for redemption here and we see him getting that! Heaney had a solid outing, though not long, against the Orioles in the divisional round and we expect another solid effort here. We also look for Jose Urquidy to struggle here. He missed a lot of this season so Urquidy also missed facing the Rangers but in his last two starts against them, both last season, he allowed 8 earned runs in 11 innings! Urquidy has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts against Texas! The Rangers were 51-31 at home this season prior to yesterday's loss. Our computer math model shows a high probability the home team gets the win here in Game 4. Take the Rangers |
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10-18-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:03 PM ET - The Astros Cristian Javier has great stuff when he is on and, though he issued some walks, his stuff looked great in his first start of this post-season against the Twins. This followed him finishing up the regular season with allowing just 4 earned runs in 15.2 innings.over his last 3 starts. Overall, Javier has now allowed only 10 hits in his last 20.2 innings on the mound! We also are looking for a strong start from Max Scherzer. Here you have a veteran hurler pitching at home and looking for redemption for his lone post-season start with the Mets last season being an ugly one. Also looking to redeem himself after his most recent appearance against the Astros was an ugly one after Scherzer had a stellar outing in his start against Houston that preceded that one. Scherzer is coming back from a minor shoulder injury here so he may not work deep but we like this Rangers bullpen to also shut the door at home after a little bit of shakiness in hanging on in the Rangers 5-4 win at Houston in Game 2 of this series. That game did reach 9 runs (which is also the posted total on this game) but 6 of the Astros last 9 road games have totaled 8 or less runs. Those 9 road games have actually averaged only 6.8 runs per game! The Rangers 10 of last 12 games have totaled 8 or less runs and those 10 games averaged only 5.5 runs per game. We feel we have some excellent line value here as this total is inflated due to the big runs that were scored in the last regular season series here between these teams which was last month and saw the Astros sweep with huge run totals. This is playoff baseball now and per all of the above this one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET - Merrill Kelly expected to start for the Diamondbacks and he is coming off 6 innings of shutout ball against the Dodgers in the NL Wild Card round. Also, Kelly has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 13 starts! This looks like a pitchers duel because Aaron Nola has great stuff and the veteran Phillies hurler has looked like vintage Nola of late! Nola loves pitching at home and he enters this game already 2-0 in the post-season and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 straight starts overall. Also, the Phillies bullpen has been great in this post-season and the Dbacks bullpen also has been a pleasant surprise for Arizona fans so far in the playoffs. The reality is, the way these starting pitchers are going, neither team may need much bullpen here either! Overall, in terms of post-season trending so far, even though there were some bigger runs scored yesterday, if you look at all 3 ALCS/NLCS games so far they have averaged just 13 hits per game. So each team averaged about 6 or 7 hits per game. This one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-16-23 | Rangers +115 v. Astros | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers +115 over Houston Astros, Monday at 4:37 PM ET - Many will jump on the Astros here thinking they simply can not fall into an 0-2 hole in this series by losing each of the first two games at home. However, this Rangers team is hungrier and sure looks like the better team in this match-up. Texas really has come a long way and it looks like it finally could be a changing of the guard in the Lone Star state. The Rangers got the 2-0 win yesterday and should dominate much more today! They have a big pitching edge with Nathan Eovaldi over Framber Valdez. Keep in mind, Houston actually had a losing record at home this season! The Astros certainly have not found their home field to be a fortress this year by any stretch of the imagination! As for the Rangers, their confidence has grown game by game as they finished the season strong and carried that momentum right into the post-season. Texas won 8 of their last 12 regular season games including 8 of 11 to wrap up their post-season berth before the regular season finale. Now in the post-season the Rangers have won 6 straight games! In 5 of those 6 victories they have allowed a total of only 4 runs or average of 0.80 runs per game! They are dominating with starters and bullpen! Speaking of that dominance, Eovaldi went 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA in the regular season and is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA so far in the post-season. The Astros Framber Valdez went just 4-8 at home this season and also enters this start off 3 straight rough outings! His final 2 of the regular season carried right into struggles in a 3rd straight game as his post-season outing was a loss to the Twins in which he allowed 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings! Look for a 4th straight rough outing for Valdez here and the Texas win streak continues and moves to 7 in a row! Take the Rangers |
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10-11-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
#937/938 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 9:07 PM ET - Bradon Pfaadt got rocked by the Brewers at Milwaukee to open up his post-season. Pfaadt is a rookie that struggled quite often this season and that was particularly true against playoff-caliber teams. The Dodgers are one of the top teams in baseball even though down 2-0 in this series and they should hammer Pfaadt here just like they did in the regular season meetings with him. The good news for Diamondbacks fans here is that Arizona has been swinging hot bats and should match LA run for run in this one. The Diamondbacks have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in winning all 4 games this post-season. The Dodgers are starting Lance Lynn and the veteran has post-season experience of course but he is just not the same pitcher he once was. Lynn was rejuvenated by coming to the Dodgers from the White Sox soon after the All Star break. However, his ERA went back up in September compared to August and walks and homers were an issue. Now he faces a red hot Arizona lineup that is loaded with confidence. Lynn gave up 26 homers in his 16 road starts this season and that includes 6 in his most recent 3 road starts for the Dodgers. Overall, Lynn was rocked in 2 of his last 3 road starts. Also, his last 2 starts against teams that ended up making the post-season - Marlins and Braves - saw him allow a combined 15 earned runs in 9 innings! The Dbacks will stay hot at the plate here but the Dodgers are in do or die mode and have the confidence of having already given Pfaadt a lot of trouble this season and the rookie struggles again here. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this late evening match-up Wednesday |
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10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -147 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -147 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -150/-155 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:07 PM ET - Just like our play on the Astros in their win over the Twins in Game 1 of that series Saturday, laying a little juice can prove well worth it in the post-season when the situation is right. This is another one of those spots the way we see it! And, for comparison's sake, a 4* play on a -110 is roughly the same risk amount as a 3* play on a -150 favorite. No hesitation to lay it here as the Dodgers are set to bounce back after the ugly loss in Game 1 Saturday. LA was hammered 11 to 2 in that game but, as you would expect with a strong team like the Dodgers, they rarely have losses in which they allow 9 or more runs. The last 8 times that happened this season, Los Angeles won the next game all 8 times - a perfect 8-0 mark! We do not see that changing here. Zac Gallen is a solid starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks but his ERA was nearly 2 runs higher on the road compared to at home this past season. Gallen was 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA in Arizona this season but went 5-6 with a 4.42 ERA on the road. Specifically he struggled in his two starts against these Dodgers and we expect more of the same here. Bobby Miller, on the other hand, was solid against the Diamondbacks this season with a 3.00 ERA in his two starts against them. Another thing that impressed us about a rookie like Miller this season is we thought he might fade some late in the season. However, Miller even got stronger come crunch time and he had a 3.36 ERA after the All-Star break compared to a 4.50 ERA prior to it. That is a good sign of what to expect from him here in a home post-season start as well. Also, in the regular season, the Dodgers bullpen ranked among the best in the majors while the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA ranked them in the lower half of the majors. We look for a huge bounce back here from a playoff-tested Dodgers team as they respond off a rare, ugly home loss and make it 9-0 last 9 times when off a loss in which they allowed 9 or more runs! Take the Dodgers at home Monday night. |
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10-07-23 | Twins v. Astros -136 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
#906 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -135 over Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 4:45 PM ET - Give the Twins credit as they just got past the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round to get here. However, something was wrong with Toronto as they seem to have internal issues and chemistry issues. Minnesota is facing a different animal now. They now face the defending World Champs and a team that has been one of the best for quite a few years now. The Twins are at a major disadvantage in the experience department as Houston is loaded with players with a ton of post-season experience as you would expect based on all their recent years of success. Also, the Astros had to hold off Texas and Seattle almost to the very end of the season to be able to capture the AL West Title. All 3 teams finished with at least 88 wins! Compare that to the AL Central where the Twins reside. All teams other than Minnesota finished with a losing record and, in fact, finished a combined 106 games under .500! Bailey Ober is a strong pitcher for the Twins but this is his post-season debut. The guy he is facing is Justin Verlander and the grizzled veteran has 34 playoff starts and over 200 post-season innings under his belt! Though he was 2-0 in 4 starts last post-season and helped the Astros win the World Series, his ERA was higher than usual and he has extra focus as a result of those struggles. Keep in mind Verlander was starting post-season games in 2006 when Ober was just 11 years old! The experience edge in Game 1 of an NLDS absolutely carries some weight and the Twins did not play as well on the road as they did at home this season. Houston went 6-1 in home games in last year's post-season. The Astros are ready again here to make another run. Take the Astros at home Saturday afternoon. |
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10-04-23 | Blue Jays v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 4:38 PM ET - Yesterday 3 of the 4 Wild Card match-ups finished under the total and this one was the most dominating under of the bunch as neither team topped 6 hits! We expect a repeat of something similar in terms of the final result here in Game 2 Wednesday. Jose Berrios the expected starter for the Blue Jays and he went 4-0 with a 2.44 ERA in his 8 day game starts this season! Also, in terms of current form, Berrios is coming off a strong September in which he held opponents to a .220 batting average while walking only 6 and striking out 38 in his 32 innings over his 5 starts for the month. Berrios spent his first 5 and 1/2 seasons in the bigs with the Twins and will look to take advantage of this opportunity today against the team that drafted him. He is a veteran with playoff experience and the same holds true for Sonny Gray of the Twins. The Minnesota right-hander also dominated afternoon action and also is coming into this outing in top form. Gray went 5-2 with a 1.80 ERA in his 13 day game starts this season and opponents hit just .185 against him! In the month of September he had a 2.00 ERA and in the month of August he had a 2.04 ERA! These are a pair of solid bullpens too and, the way these starters are going (and the bats were quiet yesterday), the bullpens may not be needed much anyway in what shapes up to be another pitchers' duel here. This one will, in all likelihood, be another tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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10-03-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
#950 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:08 PM ET - The Brewers set to win huge in this one with a massive pitching edge. The Diamondbacks will have to contend with Milwaukee’s ace Corbin Burnes and this will likely make for a night of misery for Arizona at the plate while the Brewers should enjoy facing a pitcher that was hit hard in September and, overall, has had an unimpressive season. Brandon Pfaadt is a rookie that went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA this season. Even though his ERA was a more respectable 4.22 since the all-star break, he is coming off a September in which opponents hit .288 against him. This is a tough spot for a young guy like Pfaadt pitching on the road in the first game of the post-season and especially when such a tough veteran pitcher is on the other side. Unlike Pfaadt, the Brewers Burnes has been top notch this season and also just delivered another strong month of September in terms of being very tough to hit! Burnes has allowed just 8 earned runs on only 19 hits while striking out 33 in the 28.2 innings over his 5 starts since the end of August. A strong stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season and fanned 200 again this season! The Brewers have won 8 of 12 and have scored 5.3 runs a game in last 12 games. The Diamondbacks wrapped the season losing 4 straight games and have scored just 1.2 runs per game last 5 games. 57 of 78 Arizona losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.4 runs per game in their last 8 wins. They again shutdown the opposition as Burnes comes up huge here and the Brewers also hold the bullpen edge with ERA ranked 2nd compared to Diamondbacks ERA ranked 18th on the season. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line big in this one. |
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09-29-23 | Red Sox +125 v. Orioles | Top | 3-0 | Win | 125 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox +115/+120 over Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers. The Orioles did it with yesterday's win over these Red Sox. They clinched the AL East and that is their first division title in nearly a decade. We do not expect much from this Baltimore bunch today after such an emotional win yesterday and all the celebrating that followed last night. That said, there is excellent underdog line value with Boston here. The Red Sox send Nick Pivetta to the mound and he has a 3.08 ERA this month with opponents hitting just .208 against him. Pivetta has an edge here in that the Orioles have not seen him yet this season and when he last pitched here in August at Baltimore he struck out 9 in 6 innings. Pivetta has had good success against them each of the last two times he has faced them and the O's bats could be a little sleepy here after last night's celebration. The Orioles send John Means to the mound and he had missed much of this season as well as much of last season. Though he has pitched well in limited action since coming back, Means could be limited tonight as now the Orioles are just in "tune-up mode" for the post-season. They will want to be careful with Means here. Keep in mind he is coming back from Tommy John surgery and this will be just his 5th start since the 2021 season ended and they want him healthy and strong for the playoffs. The value is on the Red Sox in this one and Boston is currently available at a solid underdog price range of +115 to +120. |
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09-28-23 | A's v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Twins are likely going with Sonny Gray and the A's are likely going with Luis Medina. Either way, Minnesota is the play here as Oakland is wrapping up a miserable season with more and more misery. The Athletics have dropped to 48-110 on the season and are 21-73 against teams with a winning record this season. The Twins are 47-33 at home this season and this is their regular season home finale. 83 of Oakland's 110 losses have been by 2 or more runs. 67 of Minnesota's 85 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. Sonny Gray has a 1.96 ERA this month and had a 2.04 ERA last month and he has a 1.77 ERA in day games this season. Luis Medina is 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA in day games and 1-6 with a 6.60 ERA in road games. He had a 6.10 ERA last month and has a 6.62 ERA last month. This is another complete mismatch and Minnesota also has the much better bullpen in addition to the much better lineup - even if they rest a player or two here. We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and only having to lay rather small juice with the Twins. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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09-27-23 | Rays -120 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -125 over Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET - We will go action on the pitchers here. The Red Sox have Brayan Bello listed as a starter and the Rays are expected to start Tyler Glasnow here. The odds that both pitchers get scratched is, of course, very minimal and this is both a play on Glasnow and a play against Bello so we are in good shape either way. From a team aspect there is a huge edge for Tampa Bay as well. They are still alive in the race for the AL East division title plus they catch a Red Sox team that is slumping badly to end the season. Boston is 4-15 last 19 games and fell out of playoff contention as the month of September wore on. Overall, they have been struggling for 2 months now as, dating to late July, the Red Sox have a 20-34 record! The Rays are on a 33-18 run since late July! Glasnow has dominated the Red Sox in both his starts against them this season and that included one at Fenway Park! Though he has given up more earned runs in recent outings he has still been tough to hit and has continued piling up strikeouts and he will resume his dominance of the Red Sox here! As for Bello, he has allowed 15 earned runs in 20 innings in his 4 starts against TB in his career. Bello also enters this outing off B2B losses and got destroyed in his most recent start and has a 7.65 ERA this month. All factors considered, a lot of value with the road team at a very fair money line price in this one. Look for Tampa Bay to keep rolling as they have one of the best records in the league this season and continue to be consistently strong. Rays get the win this evening in Boston. |
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09-26-23 | Nationals v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
#980 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET - The Orioles are hungry to lock down the AL East. They are getting close but they are not quite there yet. Here they will take advantage of facing a struggling Nationals club and move one step closer to a division title. While Washington is wrapping up another frustrating season, Baltimore has won 6 of 9 games and is looking to top the Rays for the division title after falling just short of the post-season last year. The Orioles have a big pitching edge here with Kyle Bradish over Josiah Gray. Though Gray is coming off decent starts recently, he faced non-playoff level clubs that were struggling. This is a much tougher match-up for him here and he was very fortunate against Baltimore earlier this season when he allowed only 1 earned run in 5 innings despite walking 4 batters and giving up 8 baserunners overall in the short outing. In his last 4 starts against playoff-level teams - Marlins, Phillies, Brewers, Blue Jays - Gray has allowed 16 earned runs in 14.1 innings! As for the Orioles Bradish, his numbers are already extremely strong on the season but when you take out the only very ugly start he had (7 earned runs allowed) it shows just how amazingly consistent he has been this season. Taking out his ugliest outing this season, Bradish is 11-6 with a 2.65 ERA and this is a guy who averages one strikeout per inning and also he dominated Washington when he faced them earlier this season! The Orioles right-hander had a fantastic August and is following it up with a dominant September. The Orioles are on pace for at least 100 wins this season and 70% of their wins have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Nationals are mired in a 8-19 slump and 17 of their last 18 defeats (94%!) have been by at least 2 runs! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Orioles big on the run line in this one. |
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09-24-23 | Mariners v. Rangers -119 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - The Mariners again lost to the Rangers yesterday in the second game of this 3-game set with Texas. More of the same on the way here as the loss dropped the Mariners to just 33-44 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 49-31 in home games this season and this is their regular season home finale. Considering that plus the fact they are in a battle with Houston and Seattle for the AL West title, the Rangers realize the importance of taking advantage of home field in this one for the series sweep. We get line value here because Bryan Woo is on the mound for the Mariners in this one and has a respectable ERA. The fact is the rookie does not have the MLB big game experience of Nathan Eovaldi plus Woo is 0-3 with a 10.38 ERA in his 3 day game starts this season. This Texas line up has been very good this season at home where they are ranked #2 in the AL for batting average (.274) and #1 in the AL with a .492 slugging percentage! The Rangers are averaging 6 RPG this season at home. They will send Eovaldi to the mound here as he continues to get back to full strength after missing the last two weeks of July and the month of August. We look for him to continue to bounce back as he has gotten stronger and worked deeper with each start here in the month of September. For the season Eovaldi has an ERA of 3.04 and an 11-4 record. With over a decade of experience including multiple seasons with post-season experience, Eovaldi delivers in a key game here. The Rangers are looking to grab the division title this coming week and we look for Eovaldi to help the cause and, along the way, he adds a W to his sparkling run of 10-2 his last 12 decisions! Texas is 6-1 last 7 at home and Seattle is on an overall 7-12 run and has lost 10 of 16 road games! Take the Rangers |
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09-22-23 | Rockies v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
#951/952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The Rockies are expected to start Noah Davis but whether he starts or whatever opener Colorado uses, we are not overly concerned with the pitching match-up here and will go action on pitchers. That's because the Rockies bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season and the Cubs bullpen has also had some recent struggles. As for Davis, he has a 9.97 ERA in his 7 MLB appearances (4 starts) in his young career. The Cubs are expected to go with Jameson Taillon as their starter here. He is 1-7 with a 6.86 ERA in his day game appearances this season. Day games at Wrigley Field, even when the wind is more side to side rather than blowing out, do tend to be higher scoring and we like the pattern for the Cubs entering this one as well. Coming off an 8-6 loss to the Pirates yesterday, Chicago is mired in a 1-7 slump but 7 of the 8 games have totaled at least 10 runs! The Cubs are 2-2 last 4 home games and have averaged scoring 8 runs in that stretch.  However, Chicago also has allowed an average of 7 runs per game over the last 8 games. The Rockies bats struggled some in their recent series at San Diego but that park is not exactly the most hitter-friendly in the league and the Padres have some tough pitchers. Before a quiet final two games in that series, the Rockies had scored an average of 7 runs in a solid 5-2 stretch over their 7 games before the two duds. Look for their bats to wake up again after yesterday's off-day and now playing in a hitter-friendly venue! Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with double digits in runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Friday. |
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09-20-23 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Rays are expected to start Aaron Civale. He has been victimized a bit by the long ball in recent starts but Civale also has held hitters to a .185 batting average this month and just 26 hits in 31 innings dating back to mid-August while striking out 42 in those 31 innings! Consider that the Angels expected starter here is Reid Detmers and he has a lower ERA in September than Civale but Detmers has been fortunate as opponents are hitting .280 against him in this two starts this month and, by the way, opponents hit .308 against him in the month of August. Detmers is 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA this season in his dozen road starts. Civale is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in night games this season and he has held hitters to a .215 batting average in those dozen starts. As we mentioned here yesterday, this Angels team has already packed it in for the season. Ohtani is now shut down for the season and they unloaded some veterans when they could with only Grichuk - now one of their top veteran hitters in the lineup - being stuck with the team. Trout has still been out and may not even play again this season. If you look at their current lineup they are fielding on a regular basis of late, it is no wonder that the Angels have lost 6 straight games and been outscored 38 to 13 in those 6 defeats. This Angels team is struggling badly and done for the year. The Rays are still in a battle for both the AL East title as well as the top record in the AL. Though the Rays entered this series off B2B losses, TB was on a 29-13 run prior to these consecutive defeats. As we mentioned here yesterday, they are happy to be back home after that tough series at Baltimore. Now, after yesterday's 6-2 win over the Angels, Tampa Bay has won 13 of last 17 on their home field. 10 of last 11 Rays home wins have come by at least 2 runs. 20 of last 26 Angels losses by at least 2 runs. This one should be another one that falls into that multi-run margin category! We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and having to lay only very small juice with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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09-19-23 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Rays are expected to start Taj Bradley. He has been victimized a bit by the long ball in recent starts but Bradley also has held hitters to a .226 batting average since the All-Star break while striking out 38 over 29 innings! Consider that the Angels expected starter here is Patrick Sandoval and he is 0-3 with a 6.59 ERA and opponents hitting .333 against him in the month of September. Sandoval has really been struggling and though Bradley's numbers have not been great, this Angels team has already packed it in for the season. Ohtani is now shut down for the season and they unloaded some veterans when they could with only Grichuk - now one of their top veteran hitters in the lineup - being stuck with the team. Trout is still out and may not even play again this season. If you look at their current lineup they are fielding on a regular basis of late, it is no wonder that the Angels have lost 5 straight games and been outscored 32 to 11 in those 5 defeats. This Angels team is struggling badly and done for the year. The Rays are still in a battle for the AL East title and top record in the AL. Though off B2B losses, TB was on a 29-13 run prior to these consecutive defeats. They are happy to be back home after a tough series at Baltimore and Tampa Bay has won 12 of last 16 on their home field. 9 of last 10 Rays home wins by at least 2 runs. 19 of last 25 Angels losses by at least 2 runs. This one should be another one that falls into that multi-run margin category! We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any juice with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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09-18-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
#955 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 7:45 PM ET - Freddy Peralta expected to start for Milwaukee and he is 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA since the All-Star break and has held hitters to a .159 batting average in those 11 starts! Adam Wainwright is having a rough season and is off his first win since the All-Star break. Though he got the win in that game Wainwright actually had a WHIP of 2.00 in the start with 7 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings. Wainwright was far from dominant and his rough season includes a 1-7 mark with an 8.29 ERA since the All-Star break in his 9 starts. On the season, opponents are hitting .354 against him. St Louis off a win over the Phillies yesterday but had lost 11 of 17 games heading into that one including 9 of last 13 home games prior to the tight win versus Philadelphia Sunday. The Cardinals are dead last in the NL Central while the Brewers had won 3 straight games prior to yesterday's loss and remain at the top of the same division - the NL Central. Of course the Brewers are a rather high-priced money line favorite here for good reason. Where we get the value is with the run line and laying the 1.5 runs. The Cardinals have 58 of 83 losses this season by at least a 2-run margin. 57 of Milwaukee's 84 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. The Brewers last dozen wins have all been by multi-run margins and the average margin of victory was 4.3 runs in those 12 wins! The Cardinals have been slumping overall and 17 of their last 19 defeats have been by at least 2 runs! This game has road rout written all over it. We like the Brewers to bounce back back from yesterday's loss to the Nationals and Milwaukee gets it done on the run line in this one. |
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09-17-23 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Washington Nationals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - Brandon Woodruff is 18-5 combined the past two seasons! The Brewers right-hander has a 1.93 ERA this season and opponents are hitting just .161 against him. Patrick Corbin is 27-55 the past 4 seasons combined. His ERA is currently above 5.00 and this is the third straight season that the Nationals left-hander is producing an ERA above the 5.00 level. Corbin is off a rare quality start at Pittsburgh but this was preceded by allowing 14 earned runs in 9 innings over his two prior starts. Washington has lost 5 straight games and is dead last in the NL East while the Brewers have won 3 straight and are at the top of the NL Central! Of course the Brewers are a high-priced money line favorite here for good reason. Where we get the value is with the run line and laying the 1.5 runs. The Nationals have 64 of 84 losses this season by at least a 2-run margin. 57 of Milwaukee's 84 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. The Brewers last dozen wins have all been by multi-run margins and the average margin of victory was 4.3 runs in those 12 wins! The Nationals are mired in a 4-15 slump and 13 of their last 14 defeats have been by at least 2 runs! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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09-15-23 | Rangers -118 v. Guardians | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Cleveland Guardians, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The red hot Rangers have won 6 straight games and have Jonathan Gray on the mound for this one. He is off a rare bad start and we look for him to bounce right back here. Gray has a 3.43 ERA on the road this season and has allowed a batting average of only .220 away from home this season. Lucas Giolito has been trending the opposite direction and getting absolutely crushed in terms of homers allowed. Giolito has given up 3 homers in 3 straight starts! Yes, 9 homers over his last 3 starts. He has allowed multi-homer games in 6 of his last 10 starts! Giolito is now on his 3rd team this season and the 2nd half of this season has been a nightmare for him. Since the All-Star break Giolito is 1-8 with an 8.06 ERA. The Rangers are off a 9-2 win yesterday and have averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their current winning streak of 6 games! The Guardians have been going the other direction with losses in 8 of 11 games! We really like Texas in this spot. Regardless of the pitchers we have the hotter team here but we definitely also do have a starting pitching edge. Gray is highly unlikely to have back to back bad starts while Giolito has consistently been roughed up. Lay it with the road team in this one! Take the Rangers |
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09-14-23 | Rays v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
#961/962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 8.5 Runs – Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday at 7:15 PM ET - This a key divisional battle with these two teams battling it out for the AL East title. The Rays beat the Twins yesterday at Minnesota and the Orioles lost 1-0 at home to the Cardinals. This has tightened the race even further. Those two games yesterday saw an average of only 5 hits per team and another light-hitting game here is likely given the high stakes of this match-up plus the fact two quality starting pitchers are involved. Also, these are two of the better bullpens in MLB too. As for the starters, Aaron Civale and Kyle Bradish are the ones expected to get the call in this one for their respective clubs. The Rays Civale is 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA on the road this season and 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA in night games this season. He is 5-1 with an ERA hovering near the 3.00 level since the start of July. Civale should match the Orioles Bradish here in terms of producing a quality start again. Bradish has a 2.26 ERA in home games. He is 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA since the All star break and Bradish has held hitters to a .197 batting average since then. Both pitchers have remained strong overall in the 2nd half of the MLB season and, as the old adage goes, it is quite true that good pitching is fully capable of putting the stops on good hitting! Possible playoff preview here and this one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one.
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09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -120 over Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - Texas picked up the win here last night topping the Blue Jays 6-3. That’s 4 straight wins for the Rangers but Toronto, prior to B2B losses to open up this series, had wins in their last 4 home games and we like them to get another one tonight to get right back on track. The offense has been up and down this season for Toronto but they are still a top ten offense in the league and we expect them to have success tonight vs Jordan Montgomery. The Rangers southpaw has been crushed in both his starts this month. Also, Montgomery has a 2-6 record in his road starts this season while the Jays Yusei Kikuchi has been great at home this season. The Blue Jays left-hander is 5-2 at home this season and has held hitters to a .220 batting average in his 13 starts here. In his 10 starts since the All-Star break, Kikuchi has a 2.44 ERA and has held hitters to a .234 batting average. The Jays also have the much better bullpen in this match-up when you consider ERA numbers on the season. Toronto ranks 5th and Texas ranks 26th for bullpen ERA! The Rangers have won 4 straight but this was on the heels of a 4-16 run! Texas had been slumping to say the least and now we get value with the Jays at home and with a big pitching edge in terms of starters and bullpen here. The Jays, prior to losing the first two games of this series, had won 8 of 10 games. Toronto should resume their heater here as they have done a great job of avoiding losing streaks this season. This one should end at 2 for the Blue Jays at home per all of the above. The Rangers entered this series with a losing road record on the season. The Jays play in the tough AL East and have a sub-par divisional record but they entered this series 68-38 against non-divisional foes. We have this money line set higher in favor of the Jays so our value is on Toronto tonight. |
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09-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 or 9 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Rather low total considering the strength of these two lineups and the way yesterday's double-header played out. However, this one will play out like a playoff game and is set up to be a pitchers duel. Based on bullpen ERA the Phillies are ranked 4th in the National League and the Braves are ranked 1st in the National League. As for the starting pitchers here, the Braves Max Fried is 7-1 with a 2.70 ERA this season and he has allowed just 10 earned runs in his last 5 starts. He has been dominant. As for the Phillies Zack Wheeler, he has a 2.60 ERA and has held hitters to a .185 batting average - these stats in his 10 starts since the All-Star break. Wheeler is happy to be at home for this start as 7 of his last 9 starts have been on the road. Even in that road-heavy stretch, Wheeler has allowed only 16 earned runs in those 9 starts. Both pitchers have been dominating the 2nd half of the MLB season and, as the old adage goes, it is very true that good pitching tops good hitting! Possible playoff preview here and this one will be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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09-11-23 | Angels v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
#926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Mariners to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Seattle is expected to send Logan Gilbert to the mound to start this one. As for the Angels, Reid Detmers will be the likely starter for Los Angeles here. Seattle's Gilbert is 13-5 this season and he has a 3.34 ERA in night games. He is 8-0 since July 1st and has an ERA under 3.00 since then! The Angels Detmers is 3-10 this season including 1-6 with a 5.60 ERA on the road this season. Detmers is 1-4 with a 5.80 ERA since the All-Star break. The Mariners have lost 3 straight games but they just faced the Rays in Tampa Bay. They now go from facing one of the best teams in baseball on the road to now hosting one of the majors' worst teams. Yes the Angels are in a free-fall despite rare B2B wins. They were outhit 8 to 3 in yesterday's 2-1 win and if you look at their lineup it is currently a shell of what it used to be. No wonder the Angels had lost 26 of 35 games prior to the rare B2B wins. By the way, LA has not won 3 straight games since July so the odds certainly favor Seattle getting the win here. In terms of a big-margin win, 16 of the Angels last 20 losses have been by 2 or more runs. Also, the Mariners have one of the top bullpens in MLB while the Angels have one of the worst. Also, Seattle has not lost 4 straight games since April so this is a great spot from a technical standpoint in terms of putting the odds in our favor. Angels off B2B wins, Mariners off 3 straight losses, and the likelihood (based on odds) of what comes next! Seattle is 24-12 in divisional games this season and 57 of Mariners 79 wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Mariners. Lay it! |
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09-09-23 | Pirates v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 7:20 PM ET - Early on it looked like Charlie Morton might start this one for the Braves. Even if he did he is coming off a tough outing and more of the same would be likely here. However, it now looks like Dylan Dodd will get the start for the Braves. He has struggled in his limited major league action in this, his rookie season. Dodd also has struggled in the minors badly this season. The point is that no matter who starts here we like this over. The Pirates will take advantage of facing less-than-stellar pitching and this Braves offense remains the most dangerous in the majors. The Braves won big again yesterday and they are 12-4 last 16 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Pittsburgh, believe it not, had won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in their 9 games preceding yesterday's defeat. The Pirates should enjoy some success once again at the plate in this one as they get right back on track. However, the Braves are not going to stop hitting and the projected starter for Pittsburgh here is Johan Oviedo. Though he has been a little better of late, he is still 8-14 with a 4.27 ERA this season and this is the best team in baseball that he must face today on Saturday. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Saturday. |
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09-08-23 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Cubs | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -110 over Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The Diamondbacks got the big win yesterday and today should be a repeat of that. Arizona's Zac Gallen is off B2B tougher starts but he is having a great season overall and plus this followed 4 straight starts in which his typical dominance was fully intact. Gallen went 3-0 in those 4 starts and allowed 4 earned runs on 18 hits in 25.1 innings and he struck out 30 batters! The only two times this season that he was off of B2B starts in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs in each outing he bounced back with a stellar outing each time. Gallen has not had 3 straight bad starts this entire season. He is a gamer that will come up big here against the Cubs who start a much more questionable starter in this late-season playoff-chase battle. Jameson Taillon gets the call for Chicago here and he has a 5.51 ERA on the season plus has been a bit shaky over his last 5 starts. In those outings he has allowed 26 runs (20 earned) on 33 hits in 26.1 innings! Taillon is just not on the same level as Gallen as the latter is 26-11 the past two seasons combined with a 3.00 ERA! The Diamondbacks confidence is surging off B2B wins by a combined score of 18 to 7 and they stay hot here in this one! The Cubs had been hot too but if you look at their schedule over the past 3 weeks, they had faced a combination of weak non-playoff teams and a number of slumping teams too. This game is another playoff-level game today and we like Arizona to get the job done again here. Take the Diamondbacks on the road Friday afternoon. |
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09-06-23 | Giants v. Cubs -143 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs -145 over San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 2:20 PM ET - We successfully played the over yesterday as we expected the long-struggling bats of the Giants to finally get going with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field. They did just that but the Cubs outscored them in the high-scoring win that was an easy over for us. Wednesday the wind will likely be switching to westerly just before or as this game is going on. Either way, the Cubs are the team much more likely to again win a high-scoring battle if it would turn into one. Since the All-Star break, Chicago is averaging 6 runs per game and no NL team has scored more runs than them since the break. As for San Francisco, they are dead last in the majors for runs scored since the break and having averaged a paltry 3.6 runs per game. The Giants are hitting just .216 since mid-July with a dismal .344 slugging percentage. The Cubs slugging percentage over the same period is .460 - more than 100 points higher! In terms of pitching here, though we are going action on pitchers, Alex Wood has a 6.15 ERA in day games with a .327 batting average against! The Cubs Jordan Wicks is a rookie but he has been rock solid in his first two big league starts and he went undefeated in his 20 starts in the minors while earning the win in seven of those outings for a perfect 7-0 record. The Giants have lost 5 straight games and are on a 9-20 run in the last 29 games. The Cubs have won 3 straight games and are on a 13-5 run in the last 18 games. Take the Cubs at home Wednesday afternoon. |
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09-05-23 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 11 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 11 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out at a good clip here at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field for this one on a very hot September day in Chicago. That is actually leading to a big posted total here but we believe it could easily be much higher when you consider how crazy games can get at Wrigley Field when weather conditions are like this! The Cubs are expected to start Kyle Hendricks in this one. He is 2-4 in home starts and opponents hitting .274 against him at Wrigley Field. Hendricks is 1-5 in night games with a 4.18 ERA this season. The Giants are expected to start Ryan Walker here but he is really just an opener for this one and the San Francisco bullpen will be susceptible here. The Cubs are one of the top hitting clubs in the majors since the All-Star Break (only the Braves have scored more runs) and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in the last 49 games! San Francisco should also score well here. SF has been at the other end of the spectrum (compared to Chicago) in terms of scoring runs of late but they have faced some tough pitching. Now they go from facing Steele (16-3, 2.55 ERA) to facing a guy (Hendricks) who has allowed 37 hits in 33 innings in his 6 home starts since the All-Star Break. The Giants, taking advantage of very hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley for this one, should have no problems with the offerings of Hendricks in this one and Chicago should stay hot at the plate and score a pile of runs as well. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Tuesday. |
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09-04-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Diamondbacks to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Arizona is expected to send Merrill Kelly to the mound to start this one. Kelly is 10-6 this season and has been particularly tough at home. Kelly has a 2.96 ERA in games at Chase Field this season and opponents are hitting just .187 against him in those 12 starts. As for Colorado, Peter Lambert will be the likely starter for the Rockies here. He went 1-4 with a 5.23 ERA in his 6 starts last month. In his MLB career, Lambert is 6-12 with a 6.36 ERA and opponents are hitting .303 against him in his MLB career. Also, the Rockies bullpen has a 5.32 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors! The Diamondbacks bullpen has not been great but they are better than the Rockies! Colorado has been dreadful on the road again this season as, overall, the Rockies are 21-48 this season in road games including losses in 27 of last 35 away from home! Also, they are 22-58 this season against teams with a winning record. Additionally, 68 of the Rockies 86 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. 53 of Arizona's 70 wins this season have come by a multi-run margin. The Diamondbacks are tied with 3 other teams - Marlins, Reds, Giants - for the 3rd and final wild card spot (amazing 4-way tie now) in the NL with just 25 games remaining in the season. Arizona is still fighting hard while the Rockies are dead last in the entire NL and simply can't wait for the season to be over. The Dbacks are 38-21 against teams with a losing record and are off B2B losses but had won 8 of 9 home games prior to the tough defeats to the Orioles. All the edges point to the home team and another big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Diamondbacks. Lay it! |
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09-03-23 | Braves -103 v. Dodgers | 1-3 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
#909 ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta Braves -105 over Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Braves have won 6 straight games. We get line value here because they are wrapping up a series with a Dodgers team that, like Atlanta, is one of the best teams in the league. The key here is that we are getting a Braves team that has won 2/3 of its games this season and is on a major roll right now and we are getting them at a pick'em price in a game in which they also have a huge pitching edge. Charlie Morton is a 39-year old veteran that is turning it on big-time here late in the season. Morton held opponents to a .162 batting average last month. He is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. Morton also has struck out 29 batters in 19 innings over his last 3 starts. The fact is, the veteran right-hander is in his comfort zone right now. The old school "rock and fire" notion that signifies when a pitcher is at the top of his game and Morton has been that way for awhile as he truly is just "feeling it" right now in terms of his repertoire of pitches. The opposite is true for his counterpart today. Bobby Miller has had a surprisingly strong season but the rookie is starting to feel the late-season pressure a bit now. Keep in mind, Miller is a rookie and is at the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to experience. He has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Miller's overall strong season was a bit of a surprise to begin with and perhaps he is wearing down now. Miller, in 2022, had a 4.25 ERA between AA and AAA ball in the minors. This season he had a 5.65 ERA in his 4 minor league starts. So Miller's performance at the MLB level remains a bit of a surprise and his fade is likely to continue here as he faces the best team in the majors. Atlanta has won 20 of the last 25 games for an 80% run the past 4 weeks! The Dodgers had been hot too but the Braves have cooled them off. Many will play the "avoid the sweep" theory here but each match-up truly stands on its own in baseball and there is no "due factor" here. The fact is this match-up shows big edges for Braves over Dodgers again! Take the Braves on the road. |
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09-02-23 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
#979 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - Even if you call the pitching match-up even - and we do not feel that way as the Blue Jays have an edge - the fact is Toronto has a huge overall team edge and the stronger batting lineup and better bullpen. The Rockies season is over and they have lost 4 straight games and are 21-57 this season against teams with a winning record. The Blue Jays are in a dogfight for a playoff berth as they are having another strong season and are also 36-19 this season against teams with a losing record. You can see the odds strongly favor another road win here and Toronto won yesterday's game 13 to 9. The Blue Jays 74 wins this season have included 51 by a mult-run margin. The Rockies 85 losses have included a whopping 67 by a multi-run margin. The Jays Kikuchi is 9-4 with a 3.63 ERA this season. The Rockies Blach has worked out of the bullpen for much of his career and he has a 4.97 ERA in his career and has been hit at a .295 batting average this season. More of the same expected here and the Colorado bullpen is a weakness also. We will lay the run line with the road team in this evening game Saturday! |
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09-01-23 | Phillies v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - Low total but this one will play out like a playoff game and also is set up to be a pitchers duel. These two teams have identical records and this is a critical game entering the final month of the season. The Brewers are at the top of the Central Division but the Cubs and Reds not too far behind. The Phillies are leading the Wild Card race but have to be concerned also with Cubs and Reds as well as the Giants and Diamondbacks. So this game already will have a playoff feel to it with both teams at 74-59 on the season. Neither team was in action yesterday so the bullpens are in great shape entering this game off an off-day. Based on bullpen ERA the Phillies are ranked 4th in the National League and the Brewers are ranked 2nd in the National League. As for the starting pitchers here, the Brewers Freddy Peralta went 5-0 in August and Milwaukee is 6-0 in his last 6 starts and he has allowed just 7 earned runs TOTAL in those 6 starts. He has been dominant. As for the Phillies Zack Wheeler, he has a 2.68 ERA and has held hitters to a .194 batting average - these stats in his 8 starts since the All-Star break. Both pitchers have been dominating the 2nd half of the MLB season and, as the old adage goes, it is very true that good pitching tops good hitting! Possible playoff preview here and this one will be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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08-30-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - Stop the presses...the A's actually won a game against a good team yesterday. All kidding aside, it has absolutely been a dreadful season for Oakland and so wins catch some attention especially over good teams. Not only is Oakland 20-63 against teams with a winning record, they are also 7-29 in divisional games and an insane 9-44 in day games! The Mariners had won 12 of 13 games prior to yesterday's loss and they are 25-7 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the Athletics shocking everyone by winning this series by notching B2B wins. Seattle is 43-24 against teams with a losing record and 23-12 in divisional games. Oakland very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The Athletics last 24 losses have included plenty of ugly ones and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 70 of Oaklands 94 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 56 of 75 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. As for the pitchers here, Bryce Miller is now 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA in home games and 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA in day games! He has held opponents to a .218 batting average in his 11 home starts this season. Oakland's Zach Neal has struggled at the minor league level so it is no surprise his major league numbers are unimpressive as well. Neal had a 6.87 ERA in the minors last season and had a 5.40 ERA this season which also has been the 4th straight year at the minor league level in which Neal has allowed at least a .292 batting average! No big surprise that Neal has been hit at a .324 clip for the A's this season and walks have also been an issue for him. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 3rd in the majors while the Athletics pen ranks dead last at 30th in MLB! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 12 of their last 15 wins coming by a margin of at least 2 runs. Note the 94 to 30 combined score in those 12 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the home team in this day game Wednesday! |
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08-29-23 | Angels v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Expected starters are Tyler Anderson for the Angels and Michael Lorenzen for the Phillies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Angels bullpen certainly should help the cause as well. Taking a look at WHIP, the Angels bullpen (1.48 WHIP) is ranked 27th on the season. The Phillies continue pounding the ball and have averaged 2 home runs per game in the month of August! Huge run at the plate is in progress for the Phillies and, at the same time, you look at this Angels lineup and it is a respectable one even without Trout. Yesterday the Phillies went just 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position and the Angels left 10 men on base yet the game still totaled 10 runs. Today's should get at least that as well. Note that Anderson has been getting roughed up on the season and in his last 3 starts. Anderson is 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA this month. The Phillies Lorenzen had that gem of a no-hitter earlier this month but, even with given some extra time to recuperate and recover after that, his last two starts have been a dose of reality and he has been getting hit hard. More of the same is expected here as our computer math modeling showing 10 or more runs is likely in this one. The Angels 12 of last 19 games have totaled double digits in runs. The Phillies have won 8 of 11 games and 7 of the 11 games totaled double digits. Philadelphia scored an average of 7 runs in these 11 games! Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.
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08-28-23 | Brewers +111 v. Cubs | Top | 6-2 | Win | 111 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers +110 over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers. Yes, the Cubs bullpen has been solid this season but the Brewers bullpen is even better and has the 3rd lowest team ERA in the NL for bullpens! The expected starters - though we like this play even if the starters do not go - are Wade Miley and Jameson Taillon. The Brewers are heating up again and are the hottest team in the league right now with 8 straight wins! The Cubs have been playing well too but are off B2B wins here and are actually 1-5 the last 6 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2 or more. Chicago has gone 29-36 against teams with a winning record this season and, though solid in divisional games, the Brewers have been even better with a 24-12 record in divisional action. Milwaukee is also 56-37 this season against right-handers. Again, even if there was a starting pitching change we like the road team here. Chicago is expected to start Taillon and he has a 6.08 ERA this month and has allowed a homer in each of his 5 August starts! Look for Milwaukee to make it 9 straight wins as they build on their 8-game winning streak and Miley could certainly play a role in that. The Brewers left-hander has allowed only 8 earned runs in 26 innings over his last 5 starts! The Cubs struggles when entering a game on a winning streak continue here as they face the top team in their division. The value is on the Brewers here ... currently available at an underdog price range of +110. |
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08-27-23 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 17-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - The Astros are 41-20 this season against teams with a losing record. The Tigers are 30-47 against teams with a winning record this season. Detroit has not played well at home this season as they are 8 games below .500 when hosting. The Tigers 11 of last 12 losses have been defeats by a multi-run margin. The Astros have won 11 of last 17 road games and 12 of their last 15 victories have been by 2 or more runs. More of the same expected here as Houston got back on track with a big 9-2 win yesterday and they have the pitching edge here in addition to the overall team edge. Astros bullpen ranks 8th for team ERA while the Tigers bullpen ranks 18th for team ERA this season. Houston's slugging percentage in road games ranks 5th in the majors while Detroit's slugging percentage in home games ranks 28th in the majors. In terms of starting pitching, the Tigers Alex Faedo continues to give up big hits and have those trouble spots. Yes, Faedo has been better than last season's 1-5 with a 5.53 ERA on the year but still this season he has a 5.65 ERA in home games and this is a tough spot for him facing the defending champs. Conversely, the Astros again have Justin Verlander on their squad after getting him back from the Mets. Verlander was with the Tigers for more than a dozen years to start his career so this is always a special start for him facing the team he started his career with nearly 20 years ago. Verlander comes into the start producing very well as usual and he has been red hot since the start of July and it has carried into his move back to Houston this month. it continues here against the light-hitting Tigers! We’ll lay the -1.5 here. |
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08-25-23 | Rangers v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-12 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Twins have won 7 of last 9 home games and have allowed an average of only 3.3 runs in these 9 games. The Rangers have lost 7 straight games and Texas has scored just 3.1 runs on average in these last 7 games. That said, Texas is likely to struggle again at the plate here as Sonny Gray has held hitters to a .191 batting average in his 4 August starts plus he has a home ERA that is below 3.00 in the last two seasons combined here in Minnesota! The Twins also are likely to struggle at the plate in this one. Minnesota will be facing Dane Dunning and the Rangers right-hander is 9-5 with a 3.19 ERA this season! He has a 2.98 ERA in his road appearances this season. Dunning has struck out 33 in his 25.2 innings this month and has held hitters to a .224 batting average. The Rangers have a rather high bullpen ERA but their WHIP is only 1.24 which ranks 5th in the majors and shows that Texas has some tough pitchers in their bullpen. The Rangers bullpen is certainly better than the ERA suggests and note that the Minnesota bullpen WHIP is also solid at 1.28 and that ranks 12th out of 30 teams in the majors. North wind expected for this one so the wind likely to be blowing in from left-center field which also helps the cause in this one. Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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08-24-23 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Reds off double-header sweep on the road yesterday and now on the road again for this one. That makes this a tough spot for Cincinnati and they are running into a tough hurler too. The Diamondbacks are starting Merrill Kelly in this one and he is 7-3 with a 2.51 ERA in his night starts this season. Opponents are hitting just .206 against him in his evening games and just .200 against him in his home starts. The Reds are expected to counter with Brandon Williamson here. He has a 5.24 ERA in night games this season and a 4.43 ERA so far in the month of August. Williamson is facing an Arizona team that has won 9 of 11 games and 7 of those 9 wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The Reds have now won 3 straight games but this was on the heels of a 5-12 stretch for Cincinnati and 9 of those 12 losses were by a multi-run margin. That is why, instead of laying the bigger juice on the money line in this one, we turn to the run line for maximum line value here. The hosts should roll big in this one.  We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the +125 comeback range with the Diamondbacks. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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08-23-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - Seattle has won the first two games of this series by an aggregate score of 20 to 5! The Mariners have won 8 straight games and are 21-5 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the White Sox slowing them down in the finale of this 3-game series. Chicago is 21-50 this season against teams with a winning record. Seattle is 39-22 against teams with a losing record. The White Sox have lost 20 of 28 games (28.6% winning percentage!) after dropping the first two games of this series! Chicago very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The White Sox have 23 losses since the All Star break and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 55 of Chicago's 77 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 53 of 71 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox play in the AL Central division which is the weakest in all of MLB. They have a winning record (19-17) in divisional games but are 30-60 this season outside of their division! As for the pitchers here, George Kirby is in his 2nd season in the majors and, just like his rookie season, he has been consistently solid. He is now 18-13 with a 3.30 ERA in his 49 career MLB starts and has held opponents to a .187 batting average in his 3 starts in the month of August. Chicago's Michael Kopech has a poor record again this year and now has a combined 10-20 record since the start of last season. Kopech has particularly struggled since the start of July as he had a 6.61 ERA in his 4 starts last month and has a 9.88 ERA in his 3 starts this month. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 4th in the majors while the White Sox pen ranks 26th in MLB! This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 9 of their last 11 wins. Note the 65-23 combined score in those 9 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the road team in this day game Wednesday! |
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08-22-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Guardians | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-125) over Cleveland Guardians, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 13 of 14 games and is 17-2 last 19 games plus 62 of the Dodgers 76 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers are looking like they are getting primed for a huge post-season run and this includes rookie Bobby Miller providing a strong push for this team! Miller is 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA in road starts this season! He also is dominating August with a 1.15 ERA in his 3 starts for the month. Now he can dominate a Guardians team that has never faced him! As for Noah Syndergaard against the Dodgers, LA has a number of hitters that have experience against him. Also, Syndergaard has certainly not been at his best this season! He enters this start having allowed at least 5 earned runs in 5 of his last 7 starts! More of the same is likely here as the Dodgers stay hot while Cleveland's tough run continues. The Guardians have lost 22 of 36 games. Also, just because they are at home for this series does not mean they will right the ship! Cleveland has lost 7 of last 10 home games! 19 of the last 25 Guardians losses were by 2+ runs! The Dodgers have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their current run of 17-2 last 19 games! As you can see above, the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday. |
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08-21-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Chicago White Sox, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - The Mariners have won 6 straight games and are 19-5 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the White Sox slowing them down in Game One of this series. Chicago is 21-48 this season against teams with a winning record. Seattle is 37-22 against teams with a losing record. The White Sox enter this game off a rare win and had lost 18 of 25 games (28% winning percentage!) before that win! Chicago very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The White Sox have 21 losses since the All Star break and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 53 of Chicago's 75 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 51 of 69 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox play in the AL Central division which is the weakest in all of MLB. They have a winning record (19-17) in divisional games but are 30-58 this season outside of their division! As for the pitchers here, Luis Castillo had a 2.99 ERA and held opponents to a .212 batting average last season and he is at it again this year. Castillo has compiled a 3.23 ERA and has held hitters to a .216 batting average on the year. Chicago's Touki Toussaint is on his 4th team in 3 seasons so that says a lot about him. He is struggling again this year with a 1-5 record and he has a 5.14 ERA in his MLB career. Toussaint is winless with a 6.91 ERA in his 3 starts this month. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 3rd in the majors while the White Sox pen ranks 26th in MLB! This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 7 of their 8 wins before Sunday's tight 1-run win at Houston. Note the 45-18 combined score in those 7 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the road team in this one! |
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08-20-23 | Royals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - The wind is NOT expected to be blowing out here at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field for this one. That is actually helping to keep this posted total lower than it should be when you consider the way these two teams have been trending of late as well as the starting pitching match-up here. The Cubs are expected to start Kyle Hendricks in this one. He has a 7.20 ERA in the month of August and is 1-4 with a 5.36 ERA in home games this season! The Royals are expected to start Jordan Lyles here and he is having a very tough season. Lyles is 2-7 with a 7.19 ERA in road games this season. In day games this season, the right-hander is 1-7 with an 8.73 ERA this year. Lyles has been showing no real signs of any improvement lately and the Cubs are sure to make him pay as they are one of the top hitting clubs in the majors over the last 30 days and also have scored an average of 6 runs per game in the last 32 games! The Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball so that also helps the cause here. Kansas City should also score well here. KC has seen 7 of last 8 games total at least 9 runs. These 8 games have averaged 12 runs and the Royals have scored an average of 6 runs during this stretch. They should have no problems with the offerings of Hendricks in this one either considering his numbers at home and in his recent action. Yesterday's game reached double digits in runs even though KC went 2 for 15 with runners in scoring position. Look for a better cash-in rate with the run-scoring opportunities in this one and it should reach at least ten runs and our computer math models are expecting it to finish closer to a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Sunday. |
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08-19-23 | Pirates v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
#978 ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Twins to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Minnesota is expected to send Sonny Gray to start this one. Gray is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his 3 August starts and has struck out 25 while walking just 3 in his 19 innings this month! As for the Pirates, Mitch Keller will be the likely starter here. Keller is 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA in his 6 starts since the All-Star break and he has been hit at a .340 clip in these 6 outings! On the season Keller has a 5.00 ERA on the road and a 5.03 ERA in night games. Also, Twins are heating up again with wins in 4 of their last 5 and their 2nd half record being mediocre overall was certainly impacted by being road-heavy. This will be just their 13th home game since the break and they have had wins in 9 of 12 home games since the break. Also, 55 of the Pirates 68 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. Minnesota has gone 37-28 against teams with a losing record this season. Pittsburgh is 28-50 against teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and Minnesota's 64 wins this season have featured 48 of the 64 (75%) coming by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +120 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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08-18-23 | Royals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The wind is NOT expected to be blowing out here. That is actually helping to keep this total lower than it should be when you consider the way these two teams have been trending of late as well as the starting pitching match-up here. The Cubs are expected to start Jameson Taillon in this one. He has a 6.17 ERA in home games this season and is 1-5 with an 8.91 ERA in day games this year! The Royals are expected to start Cole Ragans and the 25 year old has made only 13 starts in his MLB career so he is still getting adjusted to starting at this level. That was evident in his most recent outing. Even though he was at home, Ragans gave up 6 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings for an average of 2 baserunners per inning. The Cubs are sure to make him pay for a performance like that as they one of the top hitting clubs in the majors over the last 30 days and also have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in the last 30 games! The Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball so that also helps the cause here. Kansas City should also score well here. KC has seen 6 straight games total at least 9 runs. These 6 games have averaged 13.5 runs and the Royals have scored an average of 6.7 runs during this stretch. They should have no problems with the offerings of Taillon in this one either considering his numbers at home and in day games. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Friday. |
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08-17-23 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET - Similar to our play on the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw last night, Boston's Chris Sale is a recent returnee from injury with one start under his belt since the return. Just like last night's blowout win for LA, we expect a similar result here and this time it is with the Red Sox at Washington. Sale had a stint on the injured list but has had a solid run and began August looking like he is ready to pick up right where he left off in early June after finding his stride this season with a solid month of May in particular. Over his last 7 starts, Sale has delivered a 2.43 ERA with a solid 48 strikeouts against just 5 walks in the 42 innings spanning those 7 starts. He should dominate here at Washington and he should get plenty of run support. Patrick Corbin is the expected starter for the Nationals and he is having another rough season. Corbin now has a record of 24-53 since the start of the 2020 season and opponents are hitting .323 against him in his home starts this year! Since the start of the 2020 season he has allowed an opponents batting average north of .300 and the Red Sox should pound him here. Boston is 21-13 against left-handed starters this season. On the season, 47 of 63 Red Sox wins and 49 of 67 Nationals losses have been by a multi-run margin. Washington is 30-43 against teams with a winning record this season. Boston has a respectable bullpen while the Nationals bullpen has an ERA that ranks dead last in the National League. As you can see above, the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs in afternoon action Thursday. |
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08-16-23 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-105) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 9 straight games and us 13-1 last 14 games plus 59 of the Dodgers 72 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers are looking like they are getting primed for a huge post-season run and this includes Clayton Kershaw. He went 4-0 with a 1.09 ERA in June and held hitters to a .181 batting average for the month. He then had a stint on the injured list but has had a huge season and began August looking like he is ready to pick up right where he left off in June after 3 months of a solid season! Kershaw began August with a solid 5-inning stint versus Colorado. Now he can dominate the Brewers just like he did in May earlier this season in Milwaukee when he was also matched up with Wade Miley. Kershaw allowed just 1 earned run on only 5 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8 batters. As for Miley against the Dodgers, that was one of his worst starts of the season. Miley allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings in that start as LA rocked him. More of the same is likely here while the Brewers mediocre run continues. Milwaukee, after yesterday's 6-2 loss to the Dodgers, has gone 11-12 last 23 games. 10 of those 12 Milwaukee losses were by 2+ runs and, on the season, 45 of 55 Brewers losses have been by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 13 wins in their current run of 13-1 last 14 games! As you can see above, the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday. |
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08-15-23 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 115 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Twins to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Minnesota is expected to send Bailey Ober to start this one. Ober has a 3.03 ERA when he is on his home mound this season and opponents are hitting just .233 against him in those 11 starts. Though he was hit hard in most recent start it was at Detroit and he did strike out 9 in 6 innings in that outing. Look for him to get revenge here against the Tigers as now Minnesota is hosting in this divisional match-up and the Twins have won 7 of 9 home games since the All-Star break. As for the Tigers, Alex Faedo will be the likely starter here. Though he was on the mound when the Tigers just beat Ober and the Twins, he was not overly impressive in that outing including allowing 2 homers. Faedo has been fortunate in that most of his outings have been at home this season but now this will be just his 3rd start on the road this season and he allowed 3 homers in under 10 innings in the two prior starts away from home. We love the fact that the Twins are seeking revenge for dropping 3 of the last 4 games in the recent series loss at Detroit. Also, Twins are off B2B wins and their 2nd half record has been impacted by being road-heavy. This will be just their 10th home games since the break and, again, they had wins in 7 of 9 home games since the break. Also, 50 of the Tigers 65 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. Minnesota has gone 34-24 against teams with a losing record this season. Detroit is 27-40 when facing teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and Minnesota's 62 wins this season have featured 46 of the 62 coming by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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08-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 115 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
#906 ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Max Scherzer to start this one. Scherzer is 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA when he is on his home mound this season and opponents are hitting just .215 against him in those 8 starts. Also, he has been rock solid so far this month in August as he has gone 2-0 in his first two starts since coming to the Rangers from the Mets. As for the Angels, Patrick Sandoval will be the likely starter here. Though he has pitched better overall of late, his recent numbers on the road show that the damage away from home definitely could have been much worse. Sandoval, in his last 4 road starts has allowed 19 hits and walked 11 in 20 innings for a 1.50 WHIP. Also, The Rangers bullpen does have an unimpressive ERA but there has been some misfortune with that as their 1.22 WHIP ranks a solid 5th in the majors! Conversely, the Angels bullpen WHIP ranks them in the bottom 5 in the majors! The Angels are off a win but this followed losses in 9 of last 11 games. Also, 46 of the Angels 60 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Rangers are off a loss but this followed wins in 10 of last 11 games! Also, Texas has gone 35-19 against teams with a losing record this season. The Angels are 34-44 when facing teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers 70 wins this season have featured 61 of the 70 (87% of them!) by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +115 money range with the Rangers. Lay it! |
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08-13-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
#956 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-160) OR -2.5 runs (-100) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - As we noted here yesterday, the Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August.  The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season.  Los Angeles has won 7 straight games and 11 of 12 and 57 of the Dodgers 70 wins this season have come by a multi-run margin. In fact, 8 of last 11 wins and 20 of last 27 victories for LA have come by a margin of at least 3 runs. That is why one can consider laying the 2.5 runs and no juice on the special run line available for this game as Colorado is a massive underdog with good reason. The Rockies are the only team in the N.L. this season that has less than 24 road wins on the year. Not only is Colorado 20-42 on the road this season, the Rockies have lost 12 of their last 17 games and 57 of the 72 Colorado defeats have come by a multi-run margin this season. 8 of the Rockies last 10 losses have been by at least a 3-run margin. Now a Rockies lineup that struggles away from home has to face Julio Urias.  Though the lefty has struggled on the road this season, he is 6-1 with a 2.22 ERA in his home starts this year! Urias has held hitters to a .200 batting average at home this season after holding the opposition to a .183 batting average in outings at Dodger Stadium the prior season. Colorado has been held to 2 or less runs in 6 of their last 8 games on this road trip. The Dodgers have scored an average of 6.8 runs per game in the 11 wins in their current run of 11-1 last 12 games!  The Rockies are expected to start Kyle Freeland here.  He is 1-8 with a 5.24 ERA on the road this season. Freeland has been rocked in his starts since early July as he has allowed 40 hits in 29 innings! Also, Colorado's bullpen is one of the worst in the majors for team ERA and WHIP.  As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-160) OR 2.5 runs (-100) in afternoon action Sunday. Because not everyone has option of the -2.5 we are releasing this play here on this site as officially a play at -1.5 runs and laying the heavier juice. We mention the other option for those of you who have that option available and wish to consider it. |
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08-12-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
#910 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-135) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 6 straight games and 10 of 11 and 56 of the Dodgers 69 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Rockies are the only team in the N.L. this season that has less than 24 road wins on the year. Not only is Colorado 20-41 on the road this season, the Rockies have lost 11 of their last 16 games and 56 of the 71 Colorado defeats were by a multi-run margin this season. Now a Rockies lineup that struggles away from home has to face Tony Gonsolin. Though he is off a tough outing in his most recent start, he had allowed only 16 hits in 20 innings over his last 4 starts leading into that one. Gonsolin is a combined 33-10 with a 3.00 ERA in his career and has held hitters to a .192 batting average in his career. Colorado has been held to 2 or less runs in 5 of their last 7 games on this road trip. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 10 wins in their current run of 10-1 last 11 games! The Rockies are expected to start Peter Lambert here. He is 5-10 with a 6.80 ERA at the MLB level in his career. Lambert has been rocked in both of his August starts and Colorado's bullpen is one of the worst in the majors for team ERA and WHIP. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Saturday. |
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08-11-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
#975 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Brewers set to win huge in this one with a massive pitching edge. The White Sox will have to contend with Milwaukee’s ace Corbin Burnes and this will likely make for a night of misery for Chicago at the plate while the Brewers should enjoy facing a pitcher that continues to struggle with command. Michael Kopech is walking far too many batters, not getting enough strikeouts, and the lack of command can lead to mistake pitches at the most inopportune times. Unlike Kopech, the Brewers Burnes has been top notch this season and also just delivered an absolutely phenomenal month of July!  Burnes has allowed just 10 earned runs on only 17 hits while striking out 52 in the 45 innings over his 7 starts since the end of June.  A superb stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Kopech, in 34 innings since mid-June, has walked 34 batters - yes one walk per inning for the past two months of work! He is lucky the damage has not been even worse but indeed he has allowed 10 earned runs in 14 innings over his last 3 home starts and Kopech is likely to get hammered again here. The Brewers have scored 5.6 runs a game in last 13 games. The White Sox are off a 9-2 win but this followed a 3-6 stretch in which Chicago scored an average of only 2.7 runs scored per game. 50 of 69 White Sox losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 2 runs per game in their last 7 road wins.  They again shutdown the opposition as Burnes comes up huge here and the Brewers also hold the bullpen edge with ERA ranked 10th compared to White Sox ERA ranked 24th on the season. This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line big in this one.
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08-10-23 | Cardinals v. Rays -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
#916 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over St Louis Cardinals, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Cardinals are likely handing the ball to Matthew Liberatore for this one. He is having a very rough season and is winless with an 11.48 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. As for the Rays, they are expected to start Zack Littell in this one. He is coming off a very strong start and has allowed just 2 earned runs in 11 innings over his last two starts. The Cardinals got the upset win yesterday but St Louis is just 27-45 in night games this season and only 31-45 against teams with a winning record. The Rays play in the tough AL East but are having a rock solid season and they have dominated lesser teams. Tampa Bay is 31-13 against teams with a losing record this season! Also, the Rays are 38-20 in home games and a stellar 14-6 against left-handed starters. Coming off a loss, this is a great spot to back the Rays. The edges in home field and pitching (including bullpen) go to TB here. Also, the Cardinals had lost 12 of 17 games before the win yesterday and they have not won B2B games since mid-July. We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one for a comeback price in the +115 range with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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08-09-23 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
#971/972 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 10.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - Both these pitchers have struggled often this season. Expected starters are Jordan Lyles for the Royals and Nick Pivetta for the Red Sox. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as plenty of signs are pointing to the over here including the fact that the Kansas City bullpen has an ERA that ranks them 29th in the majors and the Boston bullpen has a WHIP that ranks them 23rd in the majors. The Royals won big 9 to 3 yesterday and, as bad as they have been overall, the Kansas City lineup has been showing some positive signs in recent weeks including recently during the KC season-best 7-game winning streak. The Royals have won 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Red Sox have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game in their last 15 home games and have gone 10-5 during this stretch. A pair of teams (including Boston in their comfort zone at home) that are more confident than usual right now plus a pair of confident lineups are doing battle in this one. Then you factor in that Lyles is 2-6 with a 7.56 ERA on the road this season and Pivetta is 3-4 with a 5.89 ERA as a starter and you have a great set-up for an over in this one. The wind forecast looks like will be easterly at game time and the warm evening with breeze likely toward right-center is also favorable for an over at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Wednesday. |
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08-08-23 | Rockies v. Brewers -1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
#910 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Brewers to roll to another big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Milwaukee is expected to send Wade Miley to the mound to start this one. Miley is 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA in evening games this season and opponents are hitting just .226 against him in those 7 starts. As for Colorado, Kyle Freeland will be the likely starter for the Rockies here. He is 1-8 with a 5.33 ERA in his road starts this season and opponents hitting .299 against him in those outings. In evening action, Freeland has a 6.04 ERA and opponents are hitting .307 against him. Also, the Rockies bullpen has a 4.93 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors! The Brewers bullpen ERA ranks them 10th in the majors and their 1.24 WHIP ranks them tied with two other teams for a solid 7th in the majors! We have had some solid success this season fading bad teams in the right situations and this looks like another one as Colorado has been dreadful on the road again this season including losses in 17 of their last 23. Overall, the Rockies are 19-38 this season in road games and they are 20-42 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, 55 of the Rockies 68 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The home team has won all 4 meetings between these teams this season and the home team is 14-4 in the last 18 games between these teams since the start of the 2021 season! All the edges point to the home team (won 12-1 yesterday) and another big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Brewers. Lay it! |
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08-07-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. A's | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
#971 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Oakland A's, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to roll to a big road win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Dane Dunning to start this one. Dunning is 6-1 with a 2.60 ERA in evening games this season and opponents are hitting just .201 against him in those 16 outings (10 starts). As for Oakland, Ken Waldichuk will be the likely starter for the A's here. He is 2-7 with a 6.52 ERA this season and opponents hitting .287 against him. Also, the Athletics bullpen has a 5.53 team ERA this season to rank at the bottom of the majors! The Rangers bullpen does have an unimpressive ERA but there has been some misfortune with that as their 1.24 WHIP ranks a solid 8th in the majors! We love the fact that Oakland enters this game off B2B wins. The reason is because that strongly puts the odds in our favor that this will be a loss here! Note that the Athletics and Royals are two of the worst teams in the majors this season. They have the two worst records and it is because they can not sustain winning streaks. KC recently had a shocking 7-game winning streak and it is the only time this entire season that they have won more than 2 straight games! Likewise, early this season the A's had a 7-game winning streak and it is the one and only time Oakland has won more than 2 straight games this entire season! We have had some solid success this season fading bad teams in the right situations and this looks like another one as Oakland again fails in a situation when off rare B2B wins. Also, 58 of the Athletics 80 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Rangers have won 6 straight games and have gone 33-18 against teams with a losing record this season. The Athletics are 5-26 when facing teams from their division this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers 66 wins this season have featured 58 of the 66 by a multi-run margin! Looking for a road blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -125 money range with the Rangers. Lay it! |
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08-06-23 | Mets v. Orioles -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 120 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
#924 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over New York Mets, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #4 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 30-14 record and 3.59 ERA. The Mets are one of the weaker bullpens in MLB with a 16-23 record and 4.30 ERA. New York is 24-37 in road games this season! The Mets have lost 5 straight games and been defeated in 8 of last 9 on the road. Baltimore is 23-7 in games against teams with a losing record this season and also enters this game having won 20 of 27 games dating back to early July. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins (29%) this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a home blowout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Mets 60 losses this season have included 43 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Kyle Bradish has been solid this season and this is particularly true at home where he has a 2.39 ERA this season and has held opponents to a .202 batting average! The Orioles hurler has allowed just 6 earned runs in 46 and 2/3 innings over his last 7 home starts! Bradish has had only one bad home start this season and that was way back in April! The Mets counter with Jose Quintana and he has only made 3 starts so far and has been hit at a .281 clip in those outings. Orioles enter this game with wins in 25 of 37 games against left-handed starters this season. Each of the last 6 Orioles wins have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for New York, their overall struggles and road struggles continue after the fire sale that further dampened team morale as they were in sell mode come the trade deadline. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +120 money range with the Orioles. Lay it! |
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08-05-23 | Giants -1.5 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
#977 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 7:07 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 30-80 and with 58 of their 80 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly, the A's enter this game just 19-67 when facing teams with a winning record this season and here they face a tough test as the Giants are 12 games over .500 on the season. The Giants are 7-2 last 9 games and San Francisco certainly holds an edge in the pitching department here. Ross Stripling is likely to draw this start. The A's have only one batter that has ever had a hit against Stripling so their experience against him is limited to say the least. Additionally, Stripling has been better than his full season numbers show. Since late June, Stripling has allowed 12 earned runs in 30 innings. With Oakland struggling so badly and also having little experience against him, Stripling should have a solid outing here. The Athletics are expected to start Paul Blackburn here and he is coming off an ugly July in which he compiled a 6.26 ERA and opponents hit .340 against him in his 5 outings (4 starts). Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.57 ERA. The Giants bullpen ERA of 3.58 ranks them TOPS in the National League. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with San Francisco being on the road. Based on all of the above edges we like SF here with action on the pitchers and feel the way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -105 money range with the Giants should be much higher. Lay it! |
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08-04-23 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10.5 Runs – Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - Both these pitchers have struggled often this season. Expected starters are Patrick Corbin for the Nationals and Graham Ashcraft for the Reds. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as plenty of signs are pointing to the over here including the fact that the Cincinnati bullpen has a WHIP that ranks them 23rd in the majors and the Washington bullpen has an ERA that ranks them 29th in the majors. The Nationals have won 8 of 13 games and have scored an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch. Looking at their last 19 road games, 12 of them have totaled at least 11 runs and these 19 games have averaged 11.5 runs so do not let this big total at 10.5 keep you away! Especially on a warm evening in Cincinnati, these are the type of conditions in this hitter-friendly ballpark that produce big run totals! As for those expected starters, Corbin has a 5.43 ERA on the road and a 6.39 ERA in night games this season and opponents are hitting over .300 against him just like last season! Ashcraft has a lower ERA recently but he has been fortunate as his strikeout numbers are down and he is still giving up quite a few hits too. Overall this season Ashcraft has struggled and at home he is 3-6 with a 6.17 ERA this season. He faced the Nationals once this season and only allowed 1 earned run but he had just 2 strikeouts while walking 3 batters, hitting one, and allowing 7 hits. So Ashcraft allowed 11 baserunners in 6 innings and was very fortunate to work out of numerous jams. Ashcraft will not be so fortunate in this go around and the Nationals trending toward high-scoring road games continues. Helping the cause is the fact the Reds are back home where they have scored 38 runs in last 6 games. Also, though they are off a 5-3 road loss yesterday, Cincinnati had scored 30 runs in the 4 games leading into that one. We are going to challenge these starters and these bullpens to turn things around here and we expect a successful challenge on our part and this game gets to at least a dozen runs. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Friday. |
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08-03-23 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Luke Weaver for the Reds and Jameson Taillon for the Cubs. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the weather is expected to favor an over with warm temperatures again and the wind direction being east or southeast at Wrigley Field for this one. Taking a look at ERA, the Cincinnati bullpen is ranked 17th and the Chicago bullpen is ranked 15th in the majors with each club having about a 4.00 ERA on the season. So the pens are not horrible but they are not great either. Yesterday's 16-6 game followed Tuesday's 20-9 game and we look for the bats to stay hot in this one. The Cubs are 12-3 their last 15 so confidence is growing for this team as they finally are building a longer winning stretch. With yesterday's high-scoring win included, the Cubs are scoring an average of about 7.5 runs per game in their 18 games since the All-Star Break. The Reds have won 9 of last 14 games and have averaged 5.3 runs scored per game in last 13 games. Chicago's Jameson Taillon is coming off a solid July but he continues to get hit hard at home. This season, in home starts, Taillon is 2-4 with a 6.43 ERA and opponents hitting .317 against him when he is on his home mound! Cincinnati's Luke Weaver is having another rough season and he is getting hit at a .306 clip this season after an opponents batting average of .335 last season! His struggles are highly likely to continue here as the Cubs are a confident bunch (to say the least!) at the plate right now. That coupled with the way the Cubs pitching is likely to go tonight means the Reds should answer Chicago run for run in this one as well. Over is the call in this one Thursday evening. |
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08-02-23 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Brandon Williamson for the Reds and Drew Smyly for the Cubs. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the weather is expected to favor an over with warm temperatures and a south wind blowing out at Wrigley Field for this one. Taking a look at ERA, the Cincinnati bullpen is ranked 15th and the Chicago bullpen is ranked 16th in the majors with each club having about a 4.00 ERA on the season. So the pens are not horrible but they are not great either. Yesterday's 20-9 game is a sign of things to come here as the bats stay hot in this one. The Cubs are 11-3 their last 14 so confidence is growing for this team as they finally are building a longer winning stretch. With yesterday's high-scoring win included, the Cubs are scoring an average of 7 runs per game in their 18 games since the All-Star Break. The Reds have won 9 of last 13 games and have averaged 5.3 runs scored per game in last dozen games. Chicago's Drew Smyly is coming off a rough July and this followed a rough June too! He was 1-2 with a 6.65 ERA last month after going 2-3 with a 5.81 ERA in his 5 starts the prior month! Cincinnati's Williamson has been pitching a little better of late. However, Williamson has struggled in evening games this season (5.19 ERA in 10 starts) and we expect that to continue here as the Cubs are a confident bunch (to say the least!) at the plate right now. That coupled with the way the Cubs pitching is likely to go tonight means the Reds answer Chicago run for run in this one as well. Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening. |
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08-01-23 | Mets v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – New York Mets at Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Zack Greinke for the Royals and Jose Quintana for the Twins. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus both the Mets and the Royals bullpens help the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Kansas City bullpen is ranked next to last in the AL so far this season with a 5.16 ERA. The Mets bullpen is not ranked too much higher as they are 18th in the majors with a 4.11 ERA this season. The Royals are off a 2-1 win and that was their 3rd straight win so confidence is growing for this team as they finally are building a longer win streak. Prior to that low-scoring win, 3 straight KC games had totaled at least 11 runs! The Mets have won 8 of last 13 games and have averaged 5 runs scored per game in last dozen games. Kansas City's Zack Greinke is coming off a rough July and this followed a rough June too! He was 0-3 with a 7.53 ERA last month after going 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA in his 5 starts the prior month! New York's Quintana is trying to return to form but he is still working his way back from a rib injury he suffered back in March and he has been hit at a .293 batting average in his first two starts this season which both were last month in July. Quintana has struggled on the road in recent seasons and we expect that to continue here as the Royals are a confident bunch at the plate right now. That coupled with the way the Royals pitching is likely to go tonight means the Mets answer KC run for run in this one as well. Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening. |
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07-31-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers just got swept by the Braves in Atlanta. The Braves are having a fantastic season and now Milwaukee goes from facing one of the best teams in the majors to facing one of the majors' worst. The Brewers are now in DC for this series and the  Nationals have the worst home record in the N.L. with a 20-33 mark on the season. Also, against teams with a winning record this season, Washington is 25-42. The Brewers, prior to the series with Atlanta, had won 11 of 14 road games. Washington just lost 3 of 4 games and scored a total of only 4 runs in the 3 losses! Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will likely make for another night of misery for the Nationals at the plate while the Brewers should quickly break out of their slump tonight in this early evening match-up. Burnes has been top notch this season and is having an absolutely phenomenal month of July! Burnes has allowed just 6 earned runs on only 11 hits while striking out 42 in the 33 innings over his 5 starts this month. A superb stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, we are going action on pitchers here because the Nationals are expected to start Jake Irvin (6.32 ERA since All-Star break) so this is also a play against situation the way we see it. Irvin is a rookie and still going through some growing pains at the MLB level and this comes as no surprise given his minor league stats either. This season he has had a 5.64 ERA at the AAA level and last year he was 0-4 with a 4.79 ERA at the AA level. 45 of 62 Nats losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.5 runs per game in their last 6 road wins. They again shutdown the opposition and their bats should flourish against Irvin and a Nationals bullpen that is dead last in the N.L. with a 5.40 ERA this season. This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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07-30-23 | A's v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 12.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - The Athletics are swinging hot bats and another slugfest is expected at hitter-friendly Coors Field this afternoon. Oakland's last 3 games have all totaled at least 11 runs and the games averaged 13 runs. The first two games of this series at Coors Field each totaled at least 13 runs. Yesterday's game was the 4th time in 5 games that a Rockies game has totaled at least 23 hits and a couple of those games were in Washington DC so it is not just about the Coors Field effect. That said, the Rockies continue to hit the ball well but their weak pitching is an issue. That includes a bad bullpen which will again be exposed in this game Sunday. That's because Ty Blach is the expected starter here but he is more of an opener and it was actually a surprise he even lasted 3 innings in his most recent appearance. Blach has been hit at a .422 clip in his home appearances this season. Also, he has spent significant time in the minors this season and last season he got hit at a .301 clip and he has been hit at a .290 clip in the minors this season. Blach will struggle against a surging A's lineup but we also look for Colorado to have a huge day at the plate here as well. Luis Medina is 0-3 with a 6.94 ERA in afternoon games this season. Medina is also 1-4 with a 7.16 ERA on the road and this is one of the toughest road venues in baseball. Look for another wild one here on a warm afternoon in Denver as this match-up also pits two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on team ERA. Over is the call in this afternoon match-up Sunday.
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07-29-23 | Twins -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals continue - along with the Athletics - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Now off a rare win yesterday, Kansas City is in the perfect spot to be faded. KC got the walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 10th and now will likely be flat today after the big celebratory win in dramatic fashion last night. The Royals just do not win back to back games very often. Indeed, it has been a dreadful season for Kansas City and they have gone 2-14 the last 16 times they were off a win! Dating back to mid-May, the Royals have won B2B games just TWICE! Incredibly, the longest winning streak for KC is just 2 games this entire season! The Twins enter this game off 3 straight losses and that certainly is noteworthy here. That's because Minnesota has only lost more than 3 in a row a single time this entire season! The Twins, when entering a game on a losing streak of exactly 3 games, have won that 4th game all but one single time this season! Minnesota's record in this situation is 7-1 so you have a fantastic play on situation for the Twins and a solid play against situation for the Royals. This is all before talking about the pitchers which is also a huge edge for Minny here. Bailey Ober gets the call in this one and he has been rock solid over his last 5 starts and has a 2.16 ERA in the month of July. Ober was strong in his only start against KC this season. The Royals Jordan Lyles, on the other hand, got rocked by the Twins in his most recent start against them this season. Also, Lyles allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his start against the Yankees Sunday. Lyles is 1-12 with a 6.19 ERA this season! Lyles is 0-6 at home and 0-5 in night games this season. The Royals are 18-56 against teams with a winning record this season. The Twins are 24-12 against teams with a losing record this season. 40 of 54 Minnesota wins by at least a 2-run margin this season. 62 of 75 Royals losses by a multi-run margin this season. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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07-28-23 | Yankees -119 v. Orioles | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -120 over Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - We will go action on pitchers here. The Orioles have Grayson Rodriguez listed as a starter and the Yankees are expected to start Gerrit Cole here. The odds that both pitchers get scratched is, of course, very minimal and this is both a play on Cole and a play against Rodriguez so we are in good shape either way. Cole enters this one having another strong month as batters are hitting just .196 against him in July and he has struck out 31 in 25.2 innings!  Grayson Rodriguez has struggled badly for the Orioles in his home starts this season. Rodriguez has a 9.11 ERA with a .348 BAA in his 6 starts at home in Baltimore this season. He could be facing a Yankees lineup rejuvenated by the bat of Aaron Judge who is expected to be activated for this game as he has completed his rehabilitation after injury. The Yankees have won 4 of 5 games. The Orioles have lost B2B games. Also, Baltimore has lost 2 of the last 3 home games. The Yankees are ranked #1 in the majors for bullpen ERA and their pen is also #2 for batting average against. The Orioles bullpen has a solid ERA but the batting average against numbers for the Baltimore pen ranks them 22nd out of the 30 MLB teams. The point is that Baltimore has been fortunate with the low bullpen ERA thus far this season. So, all factors considered, a lot of value with the road team at a very fair money line price in this one. Look for New York to build momentum off the 3-1 win over the Mets Wednesday. The Yankees get the win this evening in Baltimore. |
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07-27-23 | Angels -143 v. Tigers | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
#905 ASA PLAY ON 8* Los Angeles Angels -145 over Detroit Tigers (GAME #1 OF DH), Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - The Angels are expected to start Shohei Ohtani in this one. The Angels, after a 6-1 run L7 games, have come full circle on their plans. Ohtani is no longer on the trade market and they have added Lucas Giolito from the White Sox. Los Angeles is going for it in terms of gunning for their first post-season appearance since the 2014 season! There is a new feel in this clubhouse and also renewed enthusiasm from the recent developments on the trade market - Ohtani staying and Giolito arriving - plus Mike Trout is progressing well and expected back before the end of next month. Ohtani, possibly distracted by the recent noise, had given up some significant earned runs in recent starts yet still allowed only 18 hits in 16 innings while striking out 21. The point being that Ohtani was not far away from his typical form and, given all the recent developments, we would not be surprised to see the dominating version of Ohtani in this one. As for the Tigers, Michael Lorenzen has certainly pitched very well this month but 2 of the 3 starts were against the Royals and the Athletics. Kansas City and Oakland are the two worst teams in the majors and now Lorenzen faces an Angels team that has been among the hottest in the majors the past week. On the other end of the spectrum, the Tigers are 9-17 in their last 26 home games. The fact this game is in Detroit truly does not give the Tigers any large advantage here. The Angels have averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game last 10 games and the Tigers have just one big game at the plate last 10 games and scored an average of only 3.4 runs in the other 9 games. The value is on the Angels here ... currently available at a price range of -145 to -150 for GAME 1 of the DH Thursday |
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07-26-23 | Blue Jays v. Dodgers UNDER 10 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 4:07 PM ET - Yesterday's game was 3-3 entering the 8th inning before a wild finish that saw the Dodgers ultimately prevail 8-7 in 10 innings. That crazy finish is helping lead to line value here as 10 is an awfully big total for this game at Dodger Stadium Wednesday afternoon. Yusei Kikuchi is projected to start for the Blue Jays here and he appears to be back on track after the All Star break. Kikuchi has given up only 1 earned run in 10 innings over his two starts since the break. Remember this is following a month of June in which he had a 2.28 ERA over his 5 starts for the month. Consider his tough pair of outings that occurred just before the All Star break absolutely an aberration. Tony Gonsolin has some interesting stats for the Dodgers of late and we feel it is leading to line value here. Though some of his ERA numbers have been up of late, this is still a guy who has struck out 38 over his last 42 innings. Gonsolin has given up only 4 hits in 10 innings over his two starts since the break. His batting average against is only .194 this season and this is the same pitcher who is 31-9 in his career with a .185 batting average against. Don't be surprised if we see a pitchers duel develop in this one. Remember we talked about yesterday's game being 3-3 entering the 8th and now we remind you that Monday's series opener was 2-2 entering the 8th before that one ended up a 6-3 Blue Jays win in 11 innings. This total has been driven up too high and the pitching will be the story in Wednesday's series finale. We are going strong with the Under in this one. |
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07-25-23 | Rockies v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Both these pitchers have struggled often this season. Expected starters are Trevor Williams for the Nationals and Austin Gomber for the Rockies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Rockies have won 6 of 9 games since the all-star break and have scored 5 runs per game in those 9 contests. Colorado got the 10-6 win here at Washington yesterday and the Nationals have gone 7-5 last dozen games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those 12 games. Both bullpens have had struggles this season and that was the case for both clubs again yesterday! After ugly performances in the late innings from each pen yesterday, take a look at their updated numbers here. The Rockies 4.65 bullpen ERA and Nationals 5.50 bullpen ERA ranks them as the bottom two bullpens in the National League this season! As for those expected starters, Williams has allowed 29 hits and 13 earned runs in 22.2 innings over his last five starts. Gomber has a 6.18 ERA this season. He faced the Nationals once this season and allowed 5 earned runs in under 5 innings of work. We know what you are thinking...that was at Coors Field so it deserves an asterisk next to the performance. However, the last time he faced the Nats in DC was in late May of last season and he allowed 8 earned runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in a start that lasted only 1.1 innings! The total on this game is relatively low considering the way these two lineups have been producing as we noted above. We are going to challenge these starters and these bullpens to turn things around here. Over is the call this evening in our nation's capital. |
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07-24-23 | Pirates v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Pirates have slumped badly after that miracle early season start they had. It is hard to believe now but, at one point early this season, Pittsburgh was 20-8. Now, from the month of May onward it has been an entirely different story. The Pirates enter this game on a run of 23-48. Also, Pittsburgh's 56 losses have included 47 by at least a 2-run margin.  The Padres are playing their first home game since the All-Star break. Though San Diego is off a loss yesterday, this followed wins in 4 of last 5 games. Also, the Padres have won 5 of last 6 home games. 42 of San Diego's 48 wins have been by a multiple run margin. Given these facts, if you like the Padres to win this game you can see why we have excellent value at the -1.5 runs here as 84% of Pirates losses and 88% of Padres wins by at least a 2-run margin this season. The pitching helps the cause here too as Quinn Priester is making just his 2nd MLB start. His first outing last week saw him get crushed for 7 earned runs in 5 innings. Priester will prove to be no match for the Padres Yu Darvish. The veteran right-hander tends to be very strong at home but he had rare struggles in his last 2 starts at home. Now, entering this start off B2B strong road outings since the All-Star break, Darvish is ready to resume his typical home dominance. In his two starts entering this one, Darvish has allowed only 1 earned run on just 9 hits while striking out 16 in 12 innings! Here he should dominate a struggling Pirates lineup. The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily make a case that the price in the -120 money range with the Padres should be much higher. Lay it! |
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07-23-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 28-73 and with 53 of their 73 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly, and even including yesterday's rare upset win over the Astros, the A's enter this game just 5-25 against divisional foes this season and here they face a tough spot as the defending champs are looking to avoid a 2-2 series split. The odds certainly favor the Astros bouncing right back as Oakland is just 6-38 in day games this season. Truly incredible numbers that favor Houston to respond immediately off the upset loss here and knock off the A's. The Astros are 21-12 against divisional opponents this year and Houston holds a huge edge in the pitching department here. Additionally, the Astros are a red hot 10-4 last 14 games on the road! Hunter Brown is likely to draw this start. Brown has dominated the Athletics in both starts against them this season! Brown allowed just 3 earned runs only 9 hits while striking out 19 in the 13 innings over those two starts. Brown is off a tougher start at Colorado but he really settled in after a tough first inning and that was at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Brown has struck out 35 over his last 24 innings and can again dominate a weaker lineup that has struggled against him this season. The Athletics are expected to start Luis Medina and he is 0-3 with an 8.35 ERA in his 4 day game outings this season. He allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings in his start against the Astros this season. Medina allowed 10 baserunners in that outing and also gave up 3 homers to Houston in that one! Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.57 ERA. The Astros bullpen ERA of 3.69 ranks them 5th in the majors. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with Houston being on the road. The Astros won 6-4 Friday and that sent the Athletics to their 10th loss in 12 games. Now, after a rare Oakland win last night, the way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -130 money range with the Astros should be much higher. Lay it! |
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07-22-23 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, Grayson Rodriguez just recently returned from the minors because he had been sent down for a lengthy period in which he was struggling so badly. Rodriguez did not look much better in his return from the minors. Some pitchers just never quite cut it at the MLB level no matter the success they have in the minors. This is one rookie who might end up fitting that bill. Rodriguez has a 7.33 ERA in the majors this season in his 11 starts and opponents are hitting .311 against him. He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his start last week which was his first start since being called up again. As for the Rays, they are expected to start a true ace in Shane McClanahan here and he had a dominating first start since coming back from a minor injury. He just pitched at Texas last week and that is a tough Rangers team and he dominated in that outing. This is not a huge surprise as he has dominated again all season long. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.56 ERA this season and he is coming off a stellar season last year for Tampa Bay too. With yesterday's 3-0 shutout win, the Rays are now 36-16 at home this season. The Orioles are having a strong season too and these clubs are battling it out at the top of the AL East division right now. However, the edges in home field and starting pitching both go to TB here. Also, 29 of the Orioles 38 losses this season have been by at least 2 runs. 47 of the Rays 61 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one for a comeback price in the +115 range with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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07-21-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 27-72 and with 52 of their 72 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this game just 4-24 against divisional foes this season and here they face a tough one as the defending champs are in town. The Astros are 20-11 against divisional opponents this year and 18-10 versus left-handed starters. This match-up is a battle of southpaws and Houston holds a huge edge in the pitching department here. Additionally, the Astros are a red hot 9-3 last 12 games on the road! Framber Valdez is likely to draw this start. Valdez has a 2.76 ERA this season and it is no fluke as he went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA last season! Valdez has held opponents to a .227 batting average for the season and also has held opponents to a .227 batting average in his 6-year career. The Athletics are expected to start JP Sears and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 17 innings over his last 3 home starts. Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.64 ERA. The Astros bullpen ERA of 3.70 ranks them 7th in the majors. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with Houston being on the road. The Astros won 3-1 last night and sent the Athletics to their 9th loss in 11 games. The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -140 money range with the Astros should be even higher. Lay it! |
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07-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 111 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
#952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 12:20 PM ET - The Braves have now lost 4 straight games. The last time the Braves had a losing season was 2017 and, ironically, that is also the last time that Atlanta has had a losing streak of more than 4 games! In other words, it has been over 5 YEARS since Atlanta has had a losing streak of at least 5 GAMES! The Braves are 33-20 this season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up.  Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 26-27 this season against teams with a winning record.  Also, Arizona is just 13-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-16 against all NL teams this season! In terms of the pitching edge here, the Braves Spencer Strider is 11-3 with a 3.66 ERA this season. The Diamondbacks Zac Gallen has equally impressive overall numbers but there is one key factor about his numbers. Gallen has been Jekyll and Hyde in terms of his road versus home performances. This season on the road Gallen is 2-4 with a 5.11 ERA. Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors.  Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games prior to this rare 0-4 stretch.  26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs.  The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 20 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs.  Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here.  The hosts should roll big in this one.  We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the +110 comeback range with the Braves. Lay the 1.5 runs here!  |
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07-19-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#908 ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - It is hard to believe that the team with the best record in baseball scored 13 runs and yet still lost yesterday. That was these Braves and we had them right here as they blew leads of 13-12 and 11-8 in the eventual 16-13 defeat. We look for Atlanta to immediately respond today on Wednesday. The Braves are 33-19 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 25-27 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 12-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-15 against all NL teams this season! Charlie Morton is 5-0 in his last 5 starts and he has been delivering a fantastic July with a 3-0 record and a 0.47 ERA so far this month for Atlanta. The expected Diamondbacks starter, Ryne Nelson, has been at the other end of the spectrum of late with Arizona losing 4 of his last 6 starts. Nelson has allowed 18 earned runs on 40 hits in 32 innings over his last 6 starts. The Braves are off 3 straight losses and haven't lost 4 straight games since mid-May! Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors. Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-3 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 19 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -110 money range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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07-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Entering this series, the Braves are 33-18 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up.  Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 22-26 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 11-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-14 against all NL teams this season! The Diamondbacks are in for a tough test here from the team with the top record in the NL as Elder is likely to draw this start.  Bryce Elder has a 2.97 ERA so far this season and he has made 10 night game starts already on the season and is undefeated with a 4-0 record in those match-ups. The expected Diamondbacks starter, Zach Davies, is 1-5 on the season.  He has a 6.37 ERA on the season and now has a combined 9-22 record over the 2021/22/23 seasons! The Braves are off B2B losses and haven't lost 3 straight games since mid-May! Atlanta will respond here and Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-2 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 18 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. We also like the fact Elder's last start was a rare bad one and now he will bounce back against an Arizona team whose lineup could struggle as they have never faced him. The Braves, on the other hand, have 10 hitters with experience against Davies. 7 of those guys have at least 4 at bats against him and all 7 of those have at least 1 RBI with a total of 15 RBIs in 70 at bats combined. That is a great ratio as it equates to a hitter having 105 RBIs in a 490 at-bat season. The hosts should roll big in this one.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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07-16-23 | Twins -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The A's continue - along with the Royals - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Oakland got hammered 10-7 by Minnesota yesterday and the A's tough season continues. 7 of the 9 starters in the lineup that Oakland used in yesterday's game have batting averages of .225 or less on the season! Minnesota, on the other hand, has a team slugging percentage of .403 on the season and that is 48 points higher than the Athletics slugging percentage on the season. That is just one example of the disparity between these two teams and the Twins have a pitching edge here too. Minnesota's Joe Ryan is 5-3 with a 2.95 ERA in day games this season and also holding hitters to .195 batting average in day games this season. This afternoon the A's are expected to send JP Sears to the mound. The lefty has pitched a little better of late but has a 1-6 record on the season plus has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last two home starts! Oakland is 14-42 against teams with a winning record this season. Minnesota has won both the first two games of this series and is looking to move to 8-4 against AL West teams this season with another win here. 37 of the Twins 47 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. The Athletics are 5-37 in day games and 54 of their 69 losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Another edge is that the Minnesota bullpen is strong and ranks in the top 8 teams in the league while the Athletics bullpen is dead last for team ERA in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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07-15-23 | White Sox v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
#929/930 ASA PLAY ON 8* Under 8.5 Runs – Chicago White Sox @ Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - Yesterday's game was a 9-0 Braves win yet Atlanta had only 8 hits in the victory. There is some value here today with that unusual final scoreline yesterday plus the fact that Lance Lynn shows an unusually high ERA which is masking the fact that he has been pitching much better of late. Lynn has allowed just 25 hits in 31 innings over his last 5 starts. Also, Lynn has struck out 41 batters in 26 innings over his last 4 starts. He has had great swing and miss stuff over the past month and should pick up right where he left off before the All-Star break as the 2nd half of the season gets underway. Lynn will be opposed by Spencer Strider of the Braves and he has fantastic numbers. Strider is 7-0 his last 7 decisions on the mound. Strider also has been piling up strikeouts with 39 K's over 26 innings in his last 4 starts. He has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in those 4 starts. That is an average of only 1 earned run per start and Strider is further supported by a Braves bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the National League. The White Sox have lost 6 of 7 games and scored an average of only 2 runs per game in those 6 defeats. The Braves have been scoring much better but, prior to yesterday, only 1 of their last 6 games had seen Atlanta total 7 or more runs and the other 5 games in that 6-game stretch averaged just 4 Braves runs per game. 4 to 2 sounds about right in this one and plus gives us some extra cushion with this total at 8.5 here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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07-14-23 | Brewers -116 v. Reds | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
#957 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -115 or -120 over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers. This is a big game right of the gate in the Central Division as the 2nd half of the season gets underway post-All Star Break. We like the Brewers here as they have won 6 of last 8 road games and are taking on a divisional foe that has lost 3 of 5 home games and has not been great at home this season. In fact, the Reds 23-21 record at home is no better than the Brewers road record which is also 23-21. Each club has played 26 divisional games and Milwaukee is 17-9 in divisional action while Cincinnati is 12-14 in divisional games. All of the above supports a value play on the Brewers here and that is before even analyzing the expected pitching match-up here which is Corbin Burnes (with a big edge) against Graham Ashcraft. Note that Burnes is 6-4 with a 3.44 ERA in night games and opponents hitting just .202 against him under the lights. Ashcraft, on the other hand, is 2-5 with a 7.95 ERA in his home starts this season and opponents hitting .297 against him in his home ballpark. Though Ashcraft had a good start in his only outing so far in July, let us not forget that he got completely steamrolled with a combined 1-6 record in his 10 starts in May/June and a very ugly ERA of 9.66 over the starts spanning those two most recent months. Burnes has been great in both starts against the Reds this season while Ashcraft got destroyed in his only start against Milwaukee this season. The value is on the Brewers here ... currently available at a nearly pick'em price range of -115 to -120. |
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07-09-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 1:40 PM ET - The Royals continue - along with the Athletics - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Cleveland rolled 10-6 yesterday and piled up 18 hits. Kansas City is 12-45 this season against teams with a winning record. KC has lost 6 straight games and 10 of 13. The Royals are known for getting blown out and 15 of last 16 losses have been by 2+ runs. Cleveland has won 13 of 19 games. In terms of the pitching match-up here, Shane Bieber dominated the Royals earlier this season and has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs the last 4 starts he has made against KC! The Royals get Ryan Yarbrough back for this one most likely. The southpaw started his MLB career with some solid numbers the first two years but has since gone 14-23 and his combined ERA 2021-23 is a 5.03 ERA and he is on pace for his 3rd losing season the last 4. Remember that Yarbrough has missed significant time due to taking a line drive to the head. He suffered multiple fractures from that and his first start back could be a little rough. Either way, we like the home team here without regard to the starting pitchers. Cleveland is hotter and stronger than the ice cold Royals and the Guardians bullpen ERA is 3.11 and ranks 2nd in the majors while the Royals 5.14 ERA ranks their bullpen 2nd to LAST in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Guardians. Lay it!
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07-08-23 | A's v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The A's continue - along with the Royals - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Oakland got hammered 7-3 by Boston yesterday and the A's tough season continues. 7 of the 11 batters that Oakland used in yesterday's game have batting averages of .208 or less on the season! Boston, on the other hand, had hitters in their lineup from leadoff through the #5 spot that all are hitting better than .250 on the season. That is just one example of the disparity between these two teams and the Red Sox have a pitching edge here too. James Paxton is coming off a fantastic June in which he went undefeated in his 5 starts and produced a 1.74 ERA. The Boston southpaw also has a 1.69 ERA in his 3 home starts this season and was solid in his only day game start this season. This afternoon the A's are expected to send Paul Blackburn to the mound. The righty has a 5.06 ERA in road starts and a 4.98 ERA in day game starts. Opponents hit .282 against Blackburn last month and he began July by getting rocked for 5 earned runs in 5 innings. Oakland is 17-55 against teams with a winning record this season. Boston is on a 3-game winning streak and 34 of their 46 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. The Athletics are 5-34 in day games and 48 of their 65 losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Another edge is Boston bullpen is respectable and ranks in the middle of the pack while the Athletics bullpen is dead last for team ERA in the majors. Also, Boston is one of the top home hitting teams in the league while Oakland is one of the worst road hitting teams in the majors.  We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Red Sox. Lay it!
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07-07-23 | Cubs v. Yankees -164 | 3-0 | Loss | -164 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
#924 ASA PLAY ON 8* New York Yankees -165 over Chicago Cubs, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - We will go action on the pitchers here. The Cubs have Jameson Taillon listed as a starter and the Yankees are expected to start Carlos Rodon here. The odds that both pitchers get scratched is, of course, very minimal and this is both a play on Rodon and a play against Taillon so we are in good shape either way. The Cubs have now lost 8 of 11 games after losing at Milwaukee yesterday. The Yankees are coming off a complete home demolition at the hands of the Orioles yesterday so this is a great spot to look for a bounce back here. Rodon is ready to make his season debut and he has looked fantastic in his minor league starts leading up to this. He is more than ready to get back to big league action and will take advantage of the slumping Cubs here. The Yankees entered Game 2 of the Baltimore series having won 7 of 10 games. Now, off B2B losses, New York bounces back. Chicago enters this one having allowed at least 6 runs in 5 of last 6 games. Taillon enters this start having allowed at least 4 earned runs in 8 of last 10 starts. With Rodon coming off a dominating season and looking sharp in his rehab, he gives the home team a dominating edge over the visiting Cubs in this one. So, all factors considered, a lot of value with the home team even at a rather sizable yet very fair money line price in this one. Look for the Yankees to get the win this evening in the Bronx. |
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07-06-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals dropped to 25-62 with their 5-0 shutout loss at Minnesota last night. Keep in mind, KC was facing a Twins hurler (Pedro Lopez) last night that had given up at least 4 earned runs in 5 of last 7 home starts! If they could not scratch anything off him they are certainly unlikely to have success against a Guardians hurler that is in strong current form. Tanner Bibee has a 2.38 ERA at home and opponents have hit just .195 against him in his 6 home starts this season. Bibee should dominate here and the Guardians also should pound Jordan Lyles. He is off his first win of the season. Lyles allowed 4 earned runs in the start but finally got a win after KC was 0-15 in his first 15 starts this season! We have no hesitation here in fading a guy that, when on the mound, the Royals have gone 1-15 this season. Lyles has allowed 17 earned runs in 25 innings over his last 4 starts. In May he went 0-4 with an 8.89 ERA. In April, his final 5 starts saw Lyles allow 23 earned runs in 30 innings. Consistency matters and, in this case, Lyles has struggled consistently this season without a doubt. Even if he is not the starter here and even if Bibee (so strong at home) does not go, we still like the better team at home to win this game by at least 2 runs. 12 of the last 13 KC losses have been by at least 2 runs! Cleveland is off a tough series with Atlanta and just got blasted by the Braves 8 to 1 but they are 17-7 this season when off a loss in which they were held to 2 or less runs. In terms of bullpen ERA, Guardians are 2nd in MLB and Royals are 29th in MLB. Blowout likely here. Rain expected, particularly early in the day in Cleveland, but it should clear up well enough by the time this game rolls around. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -105 money range with the Guardians. Lay it! |
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07-05-23 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:40 PM ET - Expected starters are Alec Marsh for the Royals and Pablo Lopez for the Twins. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Royals bullpen helps the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Kansas City bullpen is ranked next to last in the AL so far this season with a 5.06 ERA. This total has dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 which is an excellent value and set-ups don't get much better than this.  The Royals 8 of last 10 road games have totaled double digits in runs and we only need 9 runs to be a winner here. The Twins 6 of last 7 home games have totaled at least 9 runs. Kansas City's Marsh has made only 1 MLB start and he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings and was hit hard plus had issues with his command. Looking at his minor league career stats this should not come as a surprise. Marsh is 8-23 with a 5.72 ERA in his minor league career! Now he faces a red hot Twins lineup. The hosts should score very well but we look for plenty of success from the road dog here too. That's because Minnesota's Lopez has struggled at home this season. He has been great on the road but has a 5.94 ERA in his home outings. Also, this will be the 3rd time this season he is facing the Royals so they are very familiar with him. Also, the most recent time was in Minneapolis and KC got to him for 6 runs in 6 innings in that late April outing. Kansas City has scored an average of 5 runs per game over the last 6 games.  The Twins have won 4 straight home games and in those victories they have averaged 7 runs scored per win! Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening.  |
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07-04-23 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros, Tuesday at 4:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Kyle Freeland for the Rockies and Brandon Bielak for the Astros. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Rockies bullpen helps the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Colorado bullpen is ranked dead last in the NL so far this season. The big total might seem a little scary but set-ups don't get much better than this. The Rockies most recent game totaled 23 runs Sunday. The Astros most recent game totaled 23 runs yesterday. Colorado's Freeland has allowed 16 earned runs in 14.1 innings in his 3 most recent starts. The Astros Bielak has struggled so much that his most recent start was in the minors. Now he is back at the MLB level but has not started in awhile. Bielak has allowed 12 earned runs on 24 hits in 16.2 innings over his last 3 MLB starts. 9 of the last 15 Astros games have totaled at least 11 runs! Houston has scored an average of 7 runs per game over the last 11 games. 9 of the last 14 Rockies games have totaled at least 11 runs! Colorado has scored an average of 6 runs in the last 5 games. Over is the call in this one Tuesday afternoon. |
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07-03-23 | Braves -151 v. Guardians | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves (-155) over Cleveland Guardians, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals and the Athletics are the only two teams in baseball that have less than 33 wins and each of those clubs have 25 or less wins on the season! What does that have to do with this play? Well, the Guardians are starting rookie right-hander Gavin Williams in this one and he has been solid in his first two starts but those are the two teams he has faced - Oakland and Kansas City. Now Williams is facing an Atlanta team that has won 8 straight games and is the hottest team in the majors plus has the highest winning percentage (.675) in the majors with a stellar 56-27 record on the year. Atlanta is worth a strong rated play in this price range as the Braves are on a win streak and the Guardians are still a game below .500 on the season. Also, Cleveland has been nothing special at home this season and plus they are facing a tough Braves hurler in Bryce Elder in this one. Elder has a 1.43 ERA in his 6 road starts this season and is undefeated in those with a 3-0 record and a .195 batting average against away from home on the year! Atlanta has won 23 of 26 games so when you consider all factors in this match-up, this is a rare opportunity to get one of the best teams in baseball and the hottest team in MLB at a reasonable money line price. We will take advantage and grab that opportunity. Lay it! |
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07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
#964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Boston Red Sox, Sunday at 1:37 PM ET - The Blue Jays lost a tight one yesterday to the Red Sox and that was on Canada Day too so it was a particularly tough home loss for Toronto. We look for a big bounce back effort from the Jays here as a result. We like this play regardless of the starting pitchers but the Blue Jays do have a strong pitching edge here as a well. Kevin Gausman has made 17 starts this season and only 3 of them have been tough. In his other 14 starts he has allowed only 14 earned runs in 92 innings! That equates to a minuscule 1.37 ERA in 14 of his 17 starts this season. Gausman can bring it and has a 2.48 ERA at home this season plus is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in day games this season. The Red Sox are going with Garrett Whitlock here and he has allowed 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings spanning his last two starts. Boston is at .500 on the season and Toronto is 19-6 this season against teams that do not have a winning record. The Red Sox are unlikely to get the sweep at Toronto and, prior to these B2B wins, had lost 7 of 8 games. Before these B2B losses, Toronto had won 6 of 8 games. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a comeback price in the +105 money range with the Blue Jays. Lay it! |
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07-01-23 | White Sox -1.5 v. A's | 6-7 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
#917 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago White Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:07 PM ET - Oakland entered this series 21-62 and with 46 of their 62 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's entered this series just 16-45 against right-handed starters and here they are expected to face a good one as Dylan Cease is likely to draw this start. Cease is coming off a fantastic June in which he had a 2.20 ERA for the month and and it is no fluke as he held opponents to a .192 batting average for the month. The Athletics were expected to start James Karpielian but he landed on the DL with a shoulder issue. That means this is likely going to be a bullpen game for the A's and Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.75 ERA. In other words, a huge edge for a red hot Cease and the much stronger team being on the road. The A's actually won last night's game but have only had 3 winning streaks this season and so the odds of winning B2B games is between slim and none. When off a standalone win this season, the A's have gone 3-10 this year. You have one of the worst teams in MLB off a rare win and against a solid pitcher. With A's likely going with a bullpen game here, this is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -140 money range with the White Sox. Lay it! |
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06-30-23 | Padres v. Reds OVER 11 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 11 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 5:10 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Graham Ashcraft for Cincinnati and Seth Lugo for the Padres. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as both teams off a stretch of high-scoring games plus match-ups at Great American Ballpark continue to trend toward big runs. Also, the Reds bullpen has an ERA that ranks them in the middle of the pack this season. Recently, neither pen has been special. The Reds last 17 home games have averaged totaling 11 runs apiece with and 11 of last 19 home games totaling at least 11 runs. This is a hitter-friendly ballpark and the Padres are ready for a breakout game at the plate after a tough little stretch at the plate following a run in which they won 9 of 15 games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game. San Diego is expected to have Lugo on the mound and he has allowed a .275 batting average this season. As for Reds starter Ashcraft, he has allowed 47 earned runs in just 33 innings over his last 8 starts this season! The Reds are scoring an average of 5 runs per game when at home this season but they also are giving up 5.2 runs per game on the year and the Padres can score well here against Ashcraft and a suspect bullpen. Cincinnati has scored an average of 7 runs per game last 11 games. Over is the call in this one early Friday evening. |
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06-29-23 | Guardians -153 v. Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -153 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
#911 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Guardians (-150) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - The Royals have lost 22 of 80 games this season and continue to be one of the worst teams in the league. Kansas City has scored only 2.3 runs per game in last 16 losses. They are likely to struggle against the Guardians Shane Bieber here. The Cleveland starter is 59-31 in his MLB career and having a solid season. Overall, his last 4 seasons combined, he has a 2.91 ERA and while Bieber in his prime in his late 20s, it is a different story for the 39-year old Royals starter in this one. Zack Greinke still gets some respect from the betting markets as he is a Cy Young winner, 6-time All-Star, and twice led the AL in ERA for the season! However, that was then and this is now and it looks like the aging veteran is nearing the end. Greinke is 1-8 with a 5.31 ERA this season. This is a play for us regardless of the starting pitchers however as it is a play against a very bad Royals team. We considered the run line here which is available at even money but no team in the majors has played in as many one-run games this season as Cleveland has. Also, the Guardians have more run line wins (16) than any other team in the AL so far this season. So we will hold our rating at 3* on this one and look for Cleveland to get the cash on the money line in this one. In terms of bullpens, the Guardians rank #1 in the majors for WHIP with a 1.15 and Cleveland's 2.92 ERA ranks them 2nd in the majors! Compare this to a Royals bullpen that has a 1.48 WHIP and a 5.06 ERA which both rank them near the very bottom of the majors. Kansas City has lost 20 of 25 games! Cleveland has won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 7 runs in the 7 victories! Lay the money line with the road favorite here! |
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06-28-23 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold. The fact we can get a reasonable -125 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one! The Nationals are having a very rough season and have lost 48 of 79 games this season and that includes having lost 12 of 16 when they are entering a game off a win. Here they are matched up with a Mariners team that has been particularly tough against bad teams. When facing teams that do not have a winning record, they have won 24 of 36 games. After Washington won yesterday's game 7-4 in 11 innings, here you have a very strong play on situation and a very strong play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses. What about wins and losses by 2+ runs? Well, the key here is that the Mariners have seen 30 of their 38 wins come by at least a 2-run margin. The Nats have seen 34 of their 48 losses come by at least at 2-run margin. Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers. The Mariners are expected to start Logan Gilbert here and he has been dominating regularly the past two months. He has only 2 tougher starts since May 1st and the other 8 outings have seen him allow a total of only 15 earned runs in 51.2 innings! The Nationals are likely starting Patrick Corbin here and he is 21-51 the last 4 years with consistently high ERA numbers. This season his ERA is 6.34 in road games. Also, the Washington bullpen is dead last in the National League this season based on ERA while the Mariners bullpen ranks as one of the best in the majors. As you can see, we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Mariners. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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06-27-23 | Rays v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Taj Bradley the expected starter for the Rays and he has been a strikeout machine. Zac Gallen the expected starter for the Diamondbacks and he has been fantastic at home this season. Gallen is 7-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his 8 home starts this season! So why not a bet on Arizona here rather than the under? Well, we expect the Diamondbacks lineup to struggle with the Rays in this one. Bradley has a 2.13 ERA in his five road starts this season. Also, the Rays bullpen ranks 4th for BAA and 8th for WHIP out of all 30 teams in the majors. The way we see it, the Dbacks lineup struggles here no matter who is on the mound for Tampa Bay. As for the Rays lineup, they are facing a top-notch starting pitcher here. Gallen has been strong for years and has been nearly unhittable this season at home as evidenced by his 1.00 ERA on the year at home. Entering this game, 12 of last 15 Rays road games have totaled 8 or less runs. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this total to an 8 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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06-26-23 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold.  The fact we can get a reasonable -125 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one!  The Nationals are having a very rough season and have lost 47 of 77 games this season and that includes having lost 27 of 41 night games. Here they are matched up with a Mariners team that has been particularly tough against bad teams. When facing teams that did not have a winning record, they have won 23 of 34 games.  So here you have a very strong play on situation and a very strong play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses.  What about wins and losses by 2+ runs?  Well, the key here is that the Mariners have seen 29 of their 37 wins come by at least a 2-run margin.  The Nats have seen 33 of their 47 losses come by at least at 2-run margin.  Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers. The Mariners are expected to start Luis Castillo here and he has been dominating at home this season. Castillo is 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA and holding opponents to a .169 batting average in his 9 starts in Seattle on the season.  The Nationals are starting Trevor Williams here most likely and he is off a rare strong start after 4 straight starts in which he was hit quite hard. Also, the Washington bullpen is dead last in the National League this season based on ERA while the Mariners bullpen ranks as one of the best in the majors. As you can see, we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Mariners. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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06-25-23 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Anthony DeSclafani for San Francisco and Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Diamondbacks and Giants both continue to trend toward high-scoring games. Also, these two bullpens are okay but not great as they rank in that middle 10 of the 30 teams in the majors based on bullpen ERA numbers so far this season. The Arizona bullpen has a 4.12 ERA on the season and the Giants bullpen has a 3.77 ERA on the season. As for the starters here, DeSclafani had a good April but he has not been overly impressive since and, in fact, has been hit quite hard in 4 of his last 6 starts. In those 6 starts he has allowed 22 earned runs in 29 innings! We look for the Diamondbacks to hit him hard as they remain hot at the plate. Also, the Giants should pound Nelson. The Dbacks righty has been hit hard in 4 of his last 5 starts. Nelson has struggled, other than one scoreless outing in this stretch, and has given up 16 earned runs on 30 hits in 19.2 innings in those other 4 starts. The Giants are off a 7-6 win over Arizona and that means a SF game totaled double digits in runs for the 9th time in 11 games. 13 of Diamondbacks last 19 games have totaled at least 9 runs! We expect double digits here as the wind will be blowing out a good clip for this afternoon game at Oracle Park and afternoon games in San Francisco do tend to invite more scoring than chilly night games here in the summer. We look for plenty of runs today regardless of the starting pitchers so we will go with "action" on the pitchers. But, the fact is those starters look to certainly help the cause if they get the ball here! Over is the call in this one Sunday afternoon. |
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06-24-23 | Rangers -135 v. Yankees | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -135 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -135 over New York Yankees, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - Jonathan Gray is off a rare bad start and we look for him to bounce right back here. Gray had allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 straight starts before he got rocked in his last start. Also, he gave up just 22 hits in just 43 innings in those 6 starts. Gray is having a fantastic season and his last start notwithstanding, has been pitching lights out. Luis Severino has been trending the opposite direction and is getting absolutely crushed in June. Severino has allowed 19 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings in the month of June and opponents are hitting .349 against him this month. The Rangers are off a 4-2 extra innings win yesterday here in the Bronx and have been red hot with wins in 33 of last 50 games. The Yankees have been going the other direction with losses in 15 of 26 games! We really like Texas in this spot. Regardless of the pitchers we have the hotter team here but we definitely also do have a starting pitching edge. Gray is highly unlikely to have back to back bad starts the way he has been going while Severino has consistently been roughed up. Lay it with the road team in this one! Take the Rangers |
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06-23-23 | Twins v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - There is some rain in the Detroit area this morning but it is expected to move out by mid-day today so the weather should be fine for this early evening match-up. Little cool for late June standards and a light northerly breeze should also help the cause here in a park that is known for being friendly to the pitchers. The Twins and Tigers bullpen each have a WHIP that ranks them in the top ten in the majors. As for the starters here, Kenta Maeda has been very sharp in his minor league rehab appearances leading into this one. The Minnesota righty has his MLB numbers inflated this season due to just one bad start and this is is a guy that can be very tough to hit. Here Maeda will take advantage of facing a Tigers team that ranks as one of the worst in the majors at the plate with a .229 batting average and a .365 slugging percentage. As for Detroit starter Joey Wentz, he shows some ugly full season numbers to the betting markets but he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Remember he was strong last season too and he appears to be rounding into form again now. Wentz is off a fantastic start against these same Twins as he held them to just 2 hits while striking out 9 in 6.1 innings of work! That start was in Minnesota and now he gets them in his home park in Detroit. Note that the Twins are hitting .219 in road games this season. That ranks them 29th of 30 teams in the majors. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this line to 8.5 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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