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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs +2 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 42 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +2 over SAN FRANCISCO 49ers - We’ll side with the better QB, the better defense, and the more experienced coach getting points in the Super Bowl. We’re all aware of the success KC has as an underdog. The Chiefs are on a tear that's seen them go 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog. They were the outright winner in 15 of these games. Some of that predates Mahomes but if we look at the games where he was QB and the Chiefs were underdogs they are 10-1-1 ATS including winning 9 of those 12 games outright. The road KC took to get here was by far more impressive than what the Niners did. Mahomes and company beat a very good Miami team handily, then went on the road and beat the hottest team in the NFL (Buffalo) and followed that up with a road win at what most, including us, considered the best team in the NFL (Baltimore). Meanwhile, San Fran struggled to win home games vs 7 seed Green Bay and Detroit. Truth be told, the 49ers probably shouldn’t even be here as they led for only 27 minutes in those 2 games combined (out of 120 total minutes). SF QB Purdy is solid but is completely inexperienced in this spot and has looked a bit frazzled at times the first 2 games of the playoffs. Meanwhile, Mahomes has played in 17 playoff games (14-3 SU record) and 3 Super Bowls. Huge QB edge to KC. The Chiefs have better overall numbers defensively (PPG, YPG, YPP) and they have played very well during this playoff run holding a potent Miami offense to 7 points, Buffalo put up 24 but on only 4.7 YPP, and they held the Ravens to 10 points in Baltimore. The Niners gave up 31 points last week to Detroit and 21 to Green Bay although the Packers blew some opportunities and only punted 1 time in the game. The KC defense gave up 11 points less than SF in the playoffs despite playing an extra game! Over their last 6 games SF’s defense allowed 29, 33, 10 (vs Washington), 21, 21, and 31 points. Not great. KC’s impressive run through the AFC (winning as underdogs) puts them in a good spot historically. In fact, in the last 20 seasons, there have been 8 teams that won outright in Championship game as an underdog and those teams went on to win 6 times (out of 8) in the Super Bowl. On top of that, dogs have covered 16 of the last 22 Super Bowls and we’re confident it will happen again this year. We like KC to win this game outright so take the points. |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 46 m | Show |
ASA Top Play NFL 10* on #320 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs, 3 PM ET - So by now you’ve heard everything there is to hear on this game and a majority of it has been Kansas City/Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid as underdogs, or in playoff games etc…They were in a very favorable scheduling situation last week against the Bills who were on a very short week. KC played well averaging 7.7YPP compared to the Bills 4.7YPP. But the Bills dominated the time of possession which means the Chiefs defense played 78 snaps. In comparison, the Ravens defense was on the field for only 46 snaps and will be the fresher of the two units. Speaking of defense, last week the Ravens rushed for 5.5 yards per carry and 229 yards overall against a Texans defense that was top 5 in the league in EPA per rush allowed. Kansas City ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA and 28th in EPA per rush allowed in the regular season. The Ravens were arguably the best/2nd best team in the league the entire season and rate as one of the greatest all-time teams in terms of DVOA rankings. This comes after facing the 2nd toughest strength of schedule in the NFL. Kansas City certainly didn’t look like the dominating Chiefs of the past this season despite playing one of the weakest schedules (21st) in the league. The Ravens are now playing their 4th straight home game heading into the Conference Championship game and teams in that situation are 7-1 SU dating back to 2004. In that same 20-year span, teams playing in the Divisional round or later and playing on the road for the second consecutive week are 13-41 SU. We won’t be swayed by the Chiefs recent two game winning streak as they benefitted from favorable weather and or scheduling in both games. Now the Ravens are the fresher team, at home and only laying 1.5-more points than the Bills were last week. The Ravens had the best overall Margin of Victory this season at +12.6PPG overall and +15.1PPG at home. Yes, betting against Mahome/Reid is a scary proposition but this Ravens team is better overall on both sides of the ball and over 60-minutes it will play out favorably for the home team. |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 37 h 45 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Ravens -9.5 vs Houston Texans – Saturday, 4:30 PM ET - The Baltimore Ravens have HISTORIC numbers when it comes to DVOA rankings and are one the best all-time in that statistical category. They hold the #1 overall DVOA, 4th offensively and 1st defensively. The impressive aspect of that is they played the toughest strength of schedule this season in the NFL. The Ravens have an overall average +/- of +11.9PPG (best in the NFL) and a net differential of +14.1PPG at home (4th). Houston on the other hand is 12th in DVOA rankings, 14th offensively and 16th defensively. The Texans were much better at home (7-3 SU) than on the road (4-4 SU). They had a +/- at home of +6.9PPG but were negative -1.8PPG on the road. Baltimore averaged the 3rd most yards per play offensively at home at 6.4, while the Texans on the road averaged 5.0YPP. Going back to the season strength of schedule we find the Texans faced the 18th toughest schedule which includes 13 defense that rank in the bottom half of the league in DVOA. The Ravens have a net play differential of +1.3 yards per play compared to the Texans +0.3YPP against weak competition. Texans QB Stroud is going to be a very good NFL QB, but this is too much to ask of a rookie QB and coach. Lay it. |
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01-15-24 | Eagles v. Bucs +3 | 9-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
#152 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 over Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Eagles have been trending the wrong way for months now and laying a full FG on the road right now with this team is too much so we’re siding with Tampa Bay. Philly has failed to cover their last 6 games and on the season and they lost 5 of those 6 games outright. Their only win since the beginning of December was an 8 point home win over the NY Giants. Philadelphia was outgained in 8 of their last 10 games and their defense fell apart allowing 31 PPG over their last 7. Despite their 11-6 overall record, the Eagles point differential is only +5 which is more in line with a .500 type team. Lastly they are really banged up right now on offense with QB Hurts dealing with a finger injury on his throwing hand and both starting WR’s Brown and Smith not at 100%. TB trending positive winning 5 of final 6 games with only loss vs Saints in a game they outgained New Orleans 7 YPP to 4.4 YPP but had 4 turnovers. The Bucs were undervalued most of the season ending with an 11-6 ATS record (2nd best in the NFL) and now they are a home dog to a team that was barely hanging on over the last month of the season. Some infighting in the Philly locker room as well doesn’t help. We give the Bucs a solid shot at the outright win and getting a full FG is a bonus. |
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01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -4.5 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs Miami Dolphins, 8:15 PM ET - The Chiefs were favored by -2.5 points earlier this season when these two teams met in Germany so the adjustment to -4.5 in KC doesn’t seem like enough in our opinion. You’ve probably heard many experts talk about the Dolphins playing in cold weather and their poor record in adverse conditions. That certainly has some merit but isn’t the sole focus of our handicap. Miami has several key injuries, especially to a defense that has been exploited in recent weeks. They are thin on the D-line and at the linebacker position and it couldn’t come at a worse time. In the past two weeks this defense allowed 56-points to the Ravens and nearly 500 total yards of offense. Last week they gave up just 21-points to the Bills but that should have been much worse as Bills QB Allen threw two INT’s in the red zone. Buffalo averaged 6.1YPP and racked up 473 yards on the day. The other factor to consider here is the fact the Dolphins defense was on the field for 77 plays last week, so fatigue becomes an issue. Granted, this is not the same Chiefs team that we have witnessed in the past as the offense has seen a massive regression this season. But the defense has been one of the best in the league, ranking 7th in DVOA, 2nd in yards per game allowed 5th in yards per play and 2nd in points allowed per game. Kansas City is 37-13 SU at home since 2019 and Patrick Mahomes has been in this situation more times than we can count. The same can’t be said for Tua Tagovailoa who is making his first career playoff start. QB’s in this situation have covered just 32% of the time in the last 20+ seasons. Tua is also 0-4 when playing in below 40-degree temperatures and Saturday’s forecast is calling for a negative windchill. Miami as a team has dropped 10-straight games in temperatures below 40 degrees. We have not been sold on KC all season long but the situation warrants a bet on them at home here as a small favorite. |
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01-08-24 | Washington +5 v. Michigan | Top | 13-34 | Loss | -113 | 66 h 49 m | Show |
#287 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +4.5 over Michigan, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Washington is a perfect 3-0 SU as an underdog this year with outright wins over Texas, Oregon, and Oregon State in that role. Dating back to the beginning of last year, the Huskies are 5-0 SU as an underdog. We think they have a great shot to upset Michigan on Monday and if they do lose, we expect it to be close and were getting +4.5 as a buffer. Nobody has been able to stop Washington’s passing game this season (#1 in the nation averaging 358 YPG through the air) and we don’t think Michigan will be any different. While the Wolverines defense has fantastic numbers, the fact is they’ve played a number of very weak offenses this year with 8 of the 13 offenses they faced during the regular season ranked outside the top 100. They’ve only faced 2 passing offenses ranked inside the top 50, Maryland (21st) and Ohio State (22nd), and both of those teams gave the Michigan defense problems throwing for 247 and 271 yards respectively in 2 close games (both decided by a TD or less). Now they face the best passing offense in the nation and the key for Washington will be keeping QB Penix upright which we think they’ll do. The Huskies offensive line has allowed a grand total of 11 sacks the entire season (4th best in the nation) and didn’t allow a single sack vs a very good Texas defensive front last week. Michigan was able to generate massive pressure on Bama QB Milroe last week, however the Crimson Tide offensive line was a liability all season long ranking 125th in sacks per game allowed so that wasn’t surprising. Even with that pressure, Alabama was still able to push Michigan to OT before losing in semi finals. Washington doesn’t have great defensive numbers but their strength is vs the run (41st nationally) so they match up well with the Wolverines offense. Bottom line is, we think Washington has a great shot to win this game and if they lose we’re getting above key numbers 3 & 4 so also a decent chance to win in that situation as well. Take the points. |
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01-07-24 | Eagles v. Giants +5 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
#460 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Giants +5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - These same two teams recently played in Philly with the Eagles a 14-point home chalk. Philadelphia won that game 33-25 and a +173 yardage advantage. New York had started QB Tommy DeVito in that game before Tyrod Taylor relieved him. Last week Taylor played well against the Rams with 319 passing yards on 27/41 passing. He also adds a rushing element with 40-yards on the ground against Los Angeles. The story here though is the in-season demise of the Eagles. Through the first two months of the season the Eagles had a net differential of +6.5PPG. Now for the season they are +1.4PPG which ranks 12th in the NFL. 8 of the Eagles 11 wins this season have been by one possession. 4 of their last 5 wins have been by 7 or less. There is turmoil in the Philadelphia locker room and some grumbling among the players/coaches. The defense took a turn for the worse when Matt Patricia took over the play calling. Philly has given up 20+ points in 6 straight games and have allowed an average of 31.5PPG over that same span of games. New York lost their first two home games of the season badly to Dallas and Seattle. Since then they have gone 3-2 SU at home and the two losses were by a combined 4-points. With the Eagles likely to rest starters in bad weather we like the G-Men to keep it close or win outright. |
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01-07-24 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +3 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show | |
#466 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona Cardinals +3 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Arizona has shown no quit on the season traveling across the country to Philadelphia last week and beating the Eagles who were trying to hold onto their NFC East lead. The Cards were down 21-6 at half and could have folded in a meaningless game on the road but battled back for a 35-31 win behind 220 yards on the ground. It wasn’t a fluke as Arizona was +15 first downs and outgained the Eagles 449 to 275. The only other team to beat the Eagles at home this year was San Francisco. It’s no coincidence that Arizona QB Murray has played outstanding after head coach Gannon gave him vote of confidence saying he was absolutely their QB of the future. Murray has completed just under 70% of his passes for almost 700 yards and 6 TD’s his last 3 games. The Cards rushing attack has topped 150 yards in 3 of their last 4 games including topping 220 yards vs 2 playoff teams, the Eagles & Niners. That’s bad news for a Seattle defense that ranks 30th vs the run (26th EPA vs the run) and in the last 6 games this defense has allowed 169, 136, 173, 178, 162, and 202 yards on the ground. They look like they’re wearing down on that side of the ball which will be a problem vs this Arizona offense. Seattle has lost 5 of their last 7 games with their only 2 wins during that stretch both coming by only 3 points. Seattle needs to win this game to have any shot at the playoffs so all the pressure is on the road team. The Cards can play loose and carefree as they did last week @ Philly and we give them a great shot at the upset. Take the points. |
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01-07-24 | Bears +3 v. Packers | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
#463 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Bears +3 over Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Chicago is playing by far their best football of the season winning 5 of their last 7 games with an ATS record of 6-1-1 their last 8. While they can’t make the playoffs, they’d like nothing more than to end their 9 game losing streak vs Green Bay and knock them out of the playoffs. This young Green Bay team has all the pressure here as a win puts them in the post season while a loss limits their chances significantly. Unlike Chicago, the Packers were trending down heading into last weekend’s win over Minnesota who was playing with their 4th string QB Hall. That one data point is not changing our opinion. Leading into that game the Packers had lost to the NYG with DeVito playing QB, were smoked at home by an average Tampa Bay team, and needed a last second FG to beat a 2-14 Carolina team. This is a bad match up for Green Bay’s defense. They rank 28th vs the run and they are facing a Chicago offense that has a mobile QB and the 2nd best running attack in the NFL. Bear’s QB Fields is playing at a high level over his last nine starts with a QB Rating of 87.5 to go along with 1,838 yards passing, 13 TDs, and 521 yards rushing. The defense has been top level allowing 20 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve risen to 12th in total defense after being near the bottom of the league a few months ago. Chicago’s only losses since early November were by 3 points @ Cleveland and a loss @ Detroit in a game they led by 12 points with less than 4:00 remaining in the game. They have no pressure here and will do everything they can to beat this must win Green Bay team. And we all know must win doesn’t mean will win. In fact, Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 100-64-4 (61.0%) against the spread (ATS). We give the Bears a great shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points. |
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01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens +3 | 17-10 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
#468 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -120 or +3 +100 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Pittsburgh has to win to have a shot at getting into the playoffs here while the Ravens are locked into the #1 seed. Of course we see this every year and teams that have to win, often don’t. Baltimore will be sitting QB Jackson and some other starters which is why they are a home dog in this one. If both teams were full strength here the Ravens would be favored by more than a TD so this line adjustment is more than 10 points which we think is too much. Value on Baltimore. You can bet Harbaugh and the Ravens are all in to win this game. That’s how they operate. Even in “meaningless” games such as the pre-season this team plays to win which is why they have won 24 of their last 25 pre-season games. The starting QB will be Huntley and he has plenty of starting experience subbing for Jackson when needed. Let’s not forget that the Steelers will be starting QB Rudolph for the 3rd time this season and he is technically their 3rd stringer. Despite their 9-7 record, the Steelers have been outgained and outscored on the season. They rank 24th in the NFL in offensive YPP and 26th in defensive YPP allowed. They are on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks and in last week’s 7 point win over Seattle, the Steelers were outgained by 1.0 YPP but ran 22 more offensive snaps. The Ravens are a money making 20-5 ATS their last 25 as a dog and when Mike Tomlin and Harbaugh meet, the underdog is 23-5-3 ATS (82.1%). We were looking at the exact same situation back in 2019 when Baltimore was hosting Pittsburgh, had secured a playoff spot, was a home dog, they were resting starters including QB Jackson, and the Steelers needed to win to have a shot at the playoffs. Final score was Baltimore 28-10. The Ravens are a deep & talented team and they would like nothing better than to ruin rival Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes. Bad weather and a low scoring game expected making the + points all the more important. All the pressure is on the Steelers here and we like Baltimore to win this game. |
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01-01-24 | Wisconsin v. LSU -8.5 | 31-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
#274 ASA PLAY ON 8* LSU -8.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 12 PM ET - LSU head coach Brian Kelly stated this week that the Tigers will have everyone available for this game that played in the season final vs A&M with the exception of QB Daniels. We’ll take him at his word, although you never know during bowl season, and if that’s the case we see this LSU team winning by double digits. Wisconsin has more opt outs / transfers in this game than LSU does. The Badgers have lost 2 of their top 4 WR’s, the top RB, starting center, along with key starter at each level of their defense. Wisconsin struggled to mesh all season in their new offense under OC Longo and with the key players missing, we just don’t think they have enough on that side of the ball to keep up in this one. They finished 77th in total offense and only averaged 22 PPG this season (103rd). Without a rushing attack on Monday (RB Allen out and next RB had 300 yards rushing) they’ll be one dimensional in this game which won’t get it done. LSU doesn’t have a problem on that side of the ball. They led the nation with 46 PPG and while QB Daniels is out, his back up Nussmeier is plenty experienced. In fact Nussmeier led the Tigers in passing yards in last year’s SEC Championship game and Bowl win over Purdue so they’re not stepping down to a freshman or anything like that here. Both top WR’s, each with over 1,000 yards receiving, are slated to play along with their offensive line being in tact. The Badger defense had solid numbers this season but played a massively weak schedule of offenses in the Big 10 West. Seven of Wisconsin’s opponents this year finished the year ranked outside the top 100 in total offense. LSU played the much tougher schedule this season and their numbers were significantly better than Wisconsin’s with a +2.5 YPP differential (Badgers were +0.2) and a +224 point differential (Badgers were +47). We understand there will be a drop off with Nussmeier but it won’t be as much as many anticipate. LSU by double digits. |
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12-31-23 | Falcons v. Bears -2.5 | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
#110 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago Bears -2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Atlanta can’t be trusted on the road where they have a 2-5 SU record and average only 13.6 PPG. Included in those 5 road losses were setbacks @ Carolina, @ Tennessee, and @ Arizona who have a combined record of 10-35. Their only road wins were by 3 points @ Tampa and by 5 points @ NY Jets and the Birds were outgained by a full 1.0 YPP in that win. In their road games Atlanta averages just 266 YPG (125 fewer than they average at home) and they average 10 fewer PPG away from home. Since Chicago QB Fields returned from injury in November, the Bears are 3-2 SU with their only losses coming @ Detroit and @ Cleveland, both games down to the wire. In fact, in their loss @ Detroit, the Bears led by 12 points with under 4:00 remaining in the game. The Chicago defense has been very good as of late allowing 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The only team that topped 20 points during that stretch were the Lions (@ Detroit) and even in that game Detroit had 14 points with under 4:00 minutes remaining. This defense has improved from near the bottom of the NFL at the end of September to their current ranking of 12th in total defense. Over the last 6 weeks, Chicago’s defense ranks 3rd in defense DVOA. The Falcons scored 29 points last week vs Indy and ran for 177 yards on one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. That game was at home for the Falcons, where they are much better offensively, but not they face a Chicago defense that ranks #1 vs the rush (80 rush YPG allowed). That means they’ll most likely have to rely on back up QB Heinecke to have a huge game here. We don’t see that happening. We expect Atlanta to struggle big time offensively in this game. We’re getting a warm weather, indoor team playing in Soldier Field where the forecast calls for a cold & windy Sunday. We like the Bears here. |
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12-31-23 | Titans v. Texans -3.5 | 3-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
#112 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Texans -3.5 over Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We have to wonder how focused the Titans will be after a pair of heart-breaking losses the past two weeks to Seattle and this same Houton team by 3-points each. Houston will get a huge boost with the return of QB CJ Stroud and have everything to play for. The Texans control their own destiny and can win the Division but need to win this game and then beat Indianapolis next week. Houston beat the Titans two weeks ago in Tennessee with backup QB Keenum. The Texans defense was outstanding, holding Tennessee to 204 total yards of offense and 3.6YPP. Houston is a drastically different team with Stroud and have been solid overall at home with a 5-3 SU record. The Texans lost at home in Week #2 then reeled off 4-straight wins at home by 24, 7, 2 and 5-points with Stroud under center. These two teams rate out relatively even in terms of DVOA defense, but the Texans are far superior offensively ranking 15th compared to the Titans at 26th. Tennessee has struggled on the road this season with a 1-6 SU record and a negative differential of minus -9.6PPG. As long as CJ Stroud plays we are on the Texans minus the points. |
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12-31-23 | Raiders v. Colts -4 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis Colts -4 over Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Las Vegas is coming off a HUGE win over their biggest rivals the Kansas City Chiefs last week in Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce was in tears after the game and the team acted as if they had just won the Division. If we break this game down, we find the Raiders had just 205 total yards of offense and averaged 4.1YPP. They benefited from a fumble recovery for a TD and had a pick’6 for a touchdown. Not to mention, this Chiefs team is not the Chiefs team of years past so that win isn’t nearly as impressive as it looks like. Don’t be fooled by the Raiders QB O’Connell and his last two wins. If you take the games he’s played in and all the other QB’s in the league in that same time period, he rates 40 out of 40 in EPA+completion percentage statistics. We also get the Colts in a great spot here at home off an embarrassing loss in Atlanta last week. Indianapolis was held to less than 100 rushing yards by a solid Falcons rush defense that is 9th best in stopping the run. That won’t be the case this week as the Raiders are 21st in the league, allowing 4.3-Yards Per Rush and give up 122RYPG on the season. The Colts need to establish a running game to help relieve the pressure on QB Minshew and open up the play action pass. Indianapolis is 13th in rushing yards per game at 113.2 RYPG. The Colts have some deficiencies defensively, but the Raiders anemic offense won’t be able to take advantage of that edge. Las Vegas is 29th in total yards gained per game, 27th in yards per play gained, 31st in rushing and 23rd in passing. Las Vegas has struggled on the road this year with a 1-point win in their season opener in Denver and the win last week which wasn’t deserved last week. In between those two road wins they have losses by 28, 7, 18, 22 and 17-points. The Colts have won 5 of their last seven games and will get a double-digit win in this one. |
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12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
#104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas -5 or -5.5 over Detroit, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Great spot for Dallas in this one. Detroit clinched their first division title in 30 years last week beating Minnesota so they are in. After emotional road win last week, the Lions back on road for the 4th in 5 weeks. This is a huge game for Dallas as they sit 1 game behind the Eagles in the NFC East. A must win here would give them a shot at the division crown and a possible #2 seed while a loss would most likely send the Cowboys to the #5 seed and a road game to open the playoffs. Dallas is off 2 road losses vs 2 of the top teams in the AFC @ Buffalo and @ Miami. Last week they led Miami late before Fins made FG as time expired to win 22-20. The Boys are back home where they are 7-0 and have outscored their opponents by 171 points (+24 PPG). They’ve now won 16 straight home games and their spread mark in those games is 13-3. They are also very tough off a loss with an 8-1 ATS record. Dallas averages 40 PPG at home and they should have a field day vs a Detroit defense that has been trending down for a few months allowing an average of 27 PPG over their last 9. The Lions stats away from home drop off drastically while the Dallas home numbers are great. Dallas at home vs Detroit on the road…Dallas +24 PPG at home – Detroit -1 PPG on road, Dallas +143 YPG at home – Detroit +26 YPG on road, Dallas +1.1 YPP at home – Detroit -0.3 YPP on road. We like the Cowboys to win by at least a TD here. |
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12-30-23 | Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming -3.5 over Toledo, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Cowboys have big time motivation here to win one for the gipper so to speak. Wyoming’s head coach, Craig Bohl (10 years at Wyoming), has made it known he will retire after this game and he is very well liked by his players so look for a supreme effort from the Cowboys. It looks like they will have nearly everyone available here as well with the exception of 1 starting offensive lineman and 1 defensive back. Toledo, on the other hand, has lost some key parts, especially on offense, where starting QB Finn (2,600 yards passing & 560 yards rushing) has already transferred to Baylor and starting RB Boone (1400 yards rushing) is in the portal as well. Not to mention Toledo head coach Candle was rumored as a potential HC at a number of other programs and seems to be every season which has been a distraction. Speaking of Candle, he’s been a terrible bowl coach which might have something to do with his name coming up each year for openings at this time of year. Candle is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS his last 5 bowl games and Toledo was favored in 4 of those games. On top of that, the MAC was a terrible conference this season which led to Toledo having a strength of schedule ranking of 130th. The MAC bowl game blunders are also well documented as the conference has a SU bowl record of 14-55 their last 69 post season games. Rockets back up QB Gleason has some experience but this team relies heavily on the run (11th in rushing YPG) and he is not even in the same stratosphere at Finn when it comes to running the ball. This team has basically lost 2,000 yards on the ground to the transfer portal which will be nearly impossible to overcome here. The Rockets overall defensive stats look impressive but they didn’t face a single team in MAC play that was ranked higher than 79th in total offense and 7 of their conference opponents ranked 100th or lower in total offense. Wyoming played the much tougher schedule and beat solid bowl non-conference teams Texas Tech and Appalachian State. Veteran Wyoming QB Peasley (2 year starter) had a solid season with 20 TD’s and just 5 interceptions and led the Cowboys to 84 points over their final 2 games. Wyoming is 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 bowl games and we like them to win and cover this one. |
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12-28-23 | Jets v. Browns -7.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* CLEVELAND BROWNS -7.5 vs. NY Jets, 8:15 PM ET - The oddsmakers are trying to scare you off this bet with a line of minus -7.5 but in reality, the number is too low in our estimation. Consider this, the Jets were recently plus +7 points in Miami with starting QB Wilson. Back in late November they were plus +8.5 at Buffalo, again with Wilson. Cleveland is better defensively than both those teams by a wide margin, especially when playing at home. With the resurgence of QB Flacco they aren’t too far behind those teams offensively. Cleveland gives up just 13.1PPG when playing at home, allows 3.7 yards per play, 87.4 rushing YPG and 110.5 passing yards per game. The Jets offense has been atrocious on the road with averages of 12PPG, 4.7YPP and 249 total YPG. Don’t be fooled by the Jets 30-points in a thrilling late game win over the Redskins, whose defense has been shredded of late allowing 34.3PPG in their last three games. Prior to that game the Jets managed 0 points on the road against a Dolphins defense that isn’t anywhere near as good as the Browns. New York has scored 10, 13, 12, 6 and 0 in five of their six road games this season. The Browns offense has put up 31, 20 and 36 points in three straight wins and have averaged 372YPG over that stretch of games which is 4th most in the NFL. Cleveland is winning at home by an average of +7.4PPG while the Jets have the 3rd worst net differential on the road of minus -11.2PPG. |
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12-28-23 | NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +2.5 over Kansas State, Thursday at 5:45 PM ET - We really like the way this NC State team played down the stretch. We could argue by the end of the season this was the 2nd best team in the ACC behind FSU. The Wolfpack won 6 of their last 7 games including beating bowl teams UNC (by 19), Clemson (by 7), Miami (by 14), and Virginia Tech (by 7). The Pack also covered 6 of their last 7 games to close out the season. Their only 3 losses came at the hands of Notre Dame, Louisville, and Duke which was their only real clunker this season. Veteran QB Armstrong, transfer from UVA, lost his job midway through the season but gained it back and was terrific down the stretch completing 70% of his passes for 6 TDs (0 interceptions) over the last 3 games also adding over 200 yards rushing in those 3 games. NCSU has some opt outs in the transfer portal but the vast majority are not depth chart guys. Most of their starters are playing in this one. The same can’t be said for KSU. The Cats had a solid 8-4 season but they are missing a large amount of key guys for this one. That includes QB Will Howard (2,600 yards passing / 350 yards rushing), 2nd leading rusher Ward, and KSU’s top 2 pass catchers WR Brooks and TE Sinnott. Those 4 players alone have accounted for nearly 5,000 yards this season (passing, receiving, and rushing). On top of that, offensive coordinator Klein has also left the program to become the OC at Texas A&M. We’ll take the team that sits nearly full strength entering this game as a dog. NC state it is. |
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12-28-23 | Rutgers -2 v. Miami-FL | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
#251 ASA PLAY ON 8* Rutgers -2 over Miami FL, Thursday at 2:15 PM ET - Miami is a program that has struggled in bowl games for a few decades. They are just 2-11 both SU & ATS in bowls since 2005. The Canes seem to always have higher aspirations entering the season and when they are stuck in a lower tier bowl, they simply don’t show up. We have a strong feeling that will be the case again this year. Are the Canes happy about traveling north to colder weather and facing Rutgers in Yankee Stadium. We doubt it. They are down to their 3rd string QB Brown after starter Van Dyke transferred to Wisconsin after the season ended and back up Williams is injured. Brown picked up some minimal experience last season but did not take a single snap in a game this year. As a whole it looks like 9 or 10 Miami starters will sit this one out. Huge coaching advantage here with Rutgers Greg Schiano (5-2 in bowl games) taking on Mario Cristobal who used to be on his staff the first time around at Rutgers. While Cristobal You can guarantee the Scarlet Knights are happy to be here. This is nearly a home game for the Scarlet Knights just 50 miles away from Yankee Stadium. They were not in a bowl game last season and haven’t won in the post season since 2014 so Rutgers really wants this one. Unlike Miami, the Knights have very few opt outs including on their defense with a number of key players deciding to come back next season. A defense that ranked in the top 20 nationally and they will be facing an inexperienced QB as we mentioned. They also got word that top RB Monangia (1,100 yards rushing) will return next season giving this program lots of momentum heading into the bowl game. With potential rain and wind chills in the 40’s on Thursday afternoon, we could see Miami being a bit disinterested in this one. Rutgers is the play. |
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12-27-23 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma State -2 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
#248 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -2 over Texas A&M, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This game opened A&M favored and has flipped to OSU a small favorite. We agree with the move and still feel there is some value on the Cowboys. A&M has been decimated through opt outs, portal, and in the coaching staff. More than half the Aggies starters won’t play in this game and we’re hearing it could be more as we approach game time. That includes their top 2 QB’s who won’t play in this game leaving 3rd stringer Henderson to start under center. He’s had some experience late in the season in A&M’s last 3 games but had almost zero snaps in his previous 2 seasons at Fresno State. Head coach Jimbo Fisher was fired and OC Petrino left for Arkansas. The Aggies DC Robinson has been in charge of bowl prep and he’s leaving to be the DC at Syracuse as soon as this game is finished. Way too much upheaval for this Texas A&M team to think they’ll be fully focused on this one (players and coaches). OSU is coming off a blowout loss in the Big 12 Championship vs Texas and they lost their bowl game last year so this team is motivated to win. A win would also give them 10 wins for the 8th time in head coach Gundy’s tenure. Speaking of Gundy, he is a veteran to the bowl scene appearing in 16 previous bowl games and has been very successful with an 11-5 SU record. They have almost nobody in the portal of significance and the Cowboys are all in here. A&M just 3-3 their last 3 games and their wins were over Abilene Christian (FCS), Miss State (non bowl team), and South Carolina (non bowl team). In fact, the Aggies beat ONE bowl team all season and that was Auburn way back in September and that was when A&M had everyone on board. Okie State beat solid bowl teams Oklahoma, Kansas State, Kansas, and WVU this season and as we mentioned they will be the motivated team here. Take the Cowboys on Wednesday. |
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12-27-23 | Virginia Tech -10.5 v. Tulane | 41-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
#241 ASA PLAY ON 8* Virginia Tech -10.5 over Tulane, Wednesday at 2 PM ET - One team in this game has a ton of distractions leading up to this game (Tulane) and the other has almost none (Va Tech). Tulane’s head coach Willie Fritz has already taken the head job at Houston and won’t be on the sidelines for this game. He is taking his OC, DC, WR coach, and DL coach with him to Houston. Those assistants will coach in this game but we can’t imagine this staff is fully invested at this point. On top of that, the Green Wave will be without their starting QB Pratt, their top 3 WR’s, starting TE, along with 5 or 6 defensive starters. This team was trending down the last month and a half or so even when they were at full strength. 3 of their final 5 wins were by 3 points or less with 2 of those wins coming vs non bowl teams Tulsa and ECU. In their regular season finale they were outgained by UTSA but benefitted from 5 turnovers to pick up a win. In the AAC Championship game, a home game for Tulane, they were dominated by SMU who finished the game with a -2 turnover margin AND was without their starting QB yet still won by double digits. Va Tech has very few opt outs, a young coach in his 2nd year with the program, and they are on the rise. This is a very important game for the Hokies who were 3-8 last year in HC Pry’s first year (didn’t make a bowl game) and they’ve improved to 6-6 this year and are shooting for a winning record. The Hokies have almost every one of their key players playing in this bowl game. Virginia Tech played the tougher schedule compared to Tulane but the key numbers (YPG & YPP differential) were almost dead even. And that was with the Green Wave at full strength which we’ve stated they won’t be for this bowl game. The Hokies played 8 bowl teams this year and outgained those teams by an average of +40 YPG. Their offense was really clicking down the stretch with the exception of their game vs Louisville who has a top 15 defense. In their final 5 games (minus the Louisville game) the Hokies averaged 40 PPG. This one is in Annapolis, Maryland which is a 4 hour & 30 minute drive from Blacksburg so Virginia Tech so we look for a Hokie home crowd here. Lay it. |
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12-23-23 | Coastal Carolina v. San Jose State -8.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
#234 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -8.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We give SJSU the situational edge here as they have already played in Hawaii on this field this season rolling over the Rainbows 35-0. That means we expect this to be a business trip for the Spartans rather than a potential vacation. Coastal, on the other hand, is making their first trip to the islands so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is more of a “getaway” type situation for the Chanticleers. San Jose State starting QB Cordiero should have plenty of motivation as well returning to his home state where he played HS football and was the starting QB for Hawaii before transferring. These 2 teams are both 7-5 entering this bowl game but SJSU played the tougher schedule with all 5 losses coming vs bowl teams including Pac 12 opponents USC and Oregon State. Down the stretch the Spartans were fantastic winning 6 straight games with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. Their only tight games was in the regular season finale where they beat UNLV on the road 37-31, a Rebel team that played in the MWC Championship game. Despite the fairly close final score, San Jose led that game by 20 points with just over 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Coastal Carolina has had many more opt outs in this game (19 in the transfer portal one of the highest of any bowl team) including starting QB McCall and his backup Guest. 3rd stringer Vasko, a redshirt freshman, did start their final 3 of their final 4 games when the first 2 QB’s were injured but he’s still very inexperienced compared to SJSU starter Cordiero who has thrown for 12,000 career yards and 87 TD’s. The Spartans seem to be highly motivated to get this win after finishing in a 3 way tie for the Mountain West title but were left out of the Championship game which were determined by computer rankings. “We’re going into this game and we want to win,” senior safety Tre Jenkins said. “Not even win close. We want to dominate. Especially because we just got a bad taste in our mouth not going to the (Mountain West Championship).” This SJSU offense averaged 39 PPG over their last 6 and we think they roll over a decimated Coastal Carolina team that had to make the long trip from Myrtle Beach SC to the islands. |
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12-23-23 | Utah v. Northwestern +6.5 | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
#232 ASA PLAY ON 8* Northwestern +6.5 over Utah, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Is Utah really excited to be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl after spending the last 2 seasons in Pasadena competing in the Rose Bowl? We would highly doubt it. This team has much higher goals this season as they expected to compete for the Pac 12 title. The lack of excitement could be attributed to the Utes large number of players in the portal (14). The Utah coach staff had to convince QB Barnes (who is already in the portal) to stay and play in this game or they were going to have to start their 4th string QB who has attempted 10 passes in his career. Barnes was originally the 3rd string QB behind Cam Rising and Nate Johnson who were both injured this season. A weird, and not ideal, situation for the Utes having their QB having to be convinced to play in the bowl but leaving for another school as soon as it’s over. They will also be missing top WR Vele, the only player with over 300 yards receiving, along with a number of key defensive players including both starting safeties. Northwestern is thrilled to be in a bowl after finishing 1-11 last season, losing their head coach Fitzgerald right before this season, and being left for dead by most. They rallied for a 7-5 season under interim head coach Braun who has been given the head coaching job and the players love him. The Cats have almost no opt outs and played very well down the stretch winning 4 of their final 5 games with their only loss coming by 3 points vs Iowa the Big 10 West champ. All 4 of those wins at the end of the season came vs bowl teams. On the other hand, Utah lost 3 of their final 5 games and struggled to beat a Colorado team that had nothing to play for in the season finale with the Utes winning by only 6 points as 22 point favorites. That lackluster effort in their home finale might be a peak into the lack of motivation for this team late in the season. The NW offense received a big boost late in the season when starting QB Bryant returned from injury (was injured in late September) and let the Wildcats to 3 straight wins while completing over 67% of his passes in those 3 games. We like NW to have a shot at the upset here and expect a close game either way. Take the points. |
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12-23-23 | James Madison v. Air Force +2 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
#226 ASA PLAY ON 8* Air Force +2 over James Madison, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We know Air Force is 100% all in today to play in the Armed Forces Bowl. We’re not so sure about James Madison. While JMU is playing in their first bowl game ever, they have a ton of distractions leading into this one. Their head coach Cignetti took the head coaching job at Indiana and won’t be around for this one. Not only that, Cignetti took a large portion of his staff with him and JMU had to turn to a number of temporary coaches simply to get them through their bowl practices. Nearly half (10) of the Dukes starters have also entered the transfer portal including QB McCloud and while many (including McCloud) are still planning on playing in this game, it will be a distraction at the very least. JMU has a very good run defense, one of the best in the nation statistically, however they’ve never faced an offense like Air Force will present. They’ve been trying to get up to speed on practice to defend the option type attack with a makeshift coaching staff as we suggested. That’s really tough to do. Air Force began the season with a perfect 8-0 record before playing poorly down the stretch losing 4 straight games. Injuries were a key part in their downfall, including starting QB Larrier who was on the shelf for 3 of those 4 losses. With a full month off since their regular season finale, the Falcons are as healthy as they have been since October including Larrier who is slated to start this game at QB. Let’s not forget when this AF team was healthy, they were an unbeaten team that has the 2nd best rushing attack in the country (276 YPG) and a defense that ranked in the top 15 in both total defense and YPP allowed. We’ll side with the small dog with a veteran coach (Troy Calhoun has coached in 12 bowl games) that has won 4 straight bowl games. Air Force gets the win on Saturday. |
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12-22-23 | Central Florida -4.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -112 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
#219 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Florida -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Both teams are 6-6 on the season but we feel this UCF team is undervalued and better than their record. Half of their losses this season came with starting QB Plumlee out with an injury. They were just 1-3 SU when Plumlee was sidelined and the only win during that stretch was vs an FCS team. The Knights outgained their opponents by +100 YPG on the season and even vs bowl teams they were +31 YPG. That was mainly in a very tough Big 12 Conference. Georgia Tech played in the weaker ACC and was outgained on the season. UCF had the stronger strength of schedule and had the much better key numbers overall with a +85 point differential (GT was +8), a +100 YPG differential (GT was -10) and a +1.3 YPP differential (GT was dead even). And those numbers included the games that Plumlee was on the shelf or we’d be looking at an even more lopsided situation in the stats. We’re also getting a massive strength vs weakness situation in this game in favor of the Golden Knights. They run the ball for an average of 233 YPG (4th in the nation) on 5.7 YPC (5th in the nation). Plumlee being healthy at QB is a huge part of that success. They are facing a Tech defense that allows 225 YPG rushing (131st out of 133 teams) on 5.4 YPG (130th). This game is also being played in Tampa, Florida which obviously benefits UCF. The opt outs and portals are fairly minimal on each side however 2 of the bigger transfers are on the Georgia Tech defense with their top CB and top DE out. We like UCF to win this one by at least a TD. |
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12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams -4 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -4 over New Orleans Saints, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Both teams enter this game with 7-7 records but we feel the Saints are overvalued at this point in the season. They are coming of 2 straight wins which were impressive on the scoreboard, however those wins were vs Carolina and NY Giants. Their win over the Panthers was very deceiving as New Orleans was outgained in that game (at home) by 100 yards but had a defensive TD. On top of that they had 2 TD drives of 44 yards or less after Carolina turnovers. Last Sunday’s win over NYG was a bit more impressive however they caught the G-Men on a short week after beating GB on Monday night. The Saints wins this year have come vs Carolina (twice), New England, NY Giants, Chicago (with backup QB), Tennessee and Indy. The Colts are the only team in that group currently with a winning record. The Rams are surging winning 4 of their last 5 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in OT. They’ve also covered 4 straight. Speaking of covering, Rams HC McVay has been great late in the season with an ATSU record of 17-4-1 his last 22 December games including 10-1-1 ATS at home in December. The LA offense has been clicking on all cylinders as of late averaging 33 PPG, 425 YPG and more than 6.0 YPP over their last 4 games. Not only that, 2 of those games came vs Cleveland and Baltimore, who rank 1st and 2nd in the NFL in total defense. The New Orleans defense looked good at home the past 2 weeks vs terrible offenses (NYG & Carolina) but prior to that they had allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their previous 6 games. Prior to their 2 wins the last 2 weeks vs poor competition, the Saints had lost 5 of their previous 7 games with all of those losses coming by at least 5 points. New Orleans is just 6-14-1 ATS their last 21 games following a win and we like the Rams to win this one by a TD or more. Lay it. |
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12-18-23 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion -3 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 56 m | Show |
#202 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Old Dominion -3 over Western Kentucky, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - This WKY beat only 1 bowl team all season long (South Florida) and now they’ve been decimated by the transfer portal including nearly their entire starting offensive line opting to move on. There is now talk that starting QB Reed may also sit this game out but nothing definitive on that yet. If it happens this line will go up so play it now at -2.5 (line as of Friday). Even when they had their entire team in tact, the Hilltoppers were 1-7 SU vs bowl teams, were outscored by an average of 12 PPG in those games and outgained by nearly 130 YPG. With all the turnover we’re not sure this team is all that excited to be here. ODU, on the other hand, is thrilled to be in this bowl game and fought like crazy to get here. They played a solid schedule with 10 bowl teams and they won 4 of those games. In their home finale, a game they needed for bowl eligibility, the Monarchs trailed Georgia State 19-0 at half and fought back for a 25-24 win. They’ve only been in 2 bowl games in their history, the most recent a few years ago in 2021. We expected ODU to control the trenches in this game even before WKY lost nearly their entire offensive line. The Monarchs rushed for an impressive 183 YPG vs bowl teams and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that ranks 123rd at stopping the run and vs bowl teams they allowed 243 YPG on the ground. Meanwhile Western barely averages 100 YPG rushing and ODU’s defense allowed just 3.4 YPC vs other bowl teams. Old Dominion played the tougher schedule, the 2 teams had very similar YPG & YPP differential, and the Monarchs team is more in tact right now when compared to Western Kentucky. We’ll lay the small number in this one. |
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12-17-23 | Ravens -2.5 v. Jaguars | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Baltimore Ravens -2.5 or -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:20 PM ET - The Ravens are playing for the #1 seed in the AFC and are playing like the best team in the AFC. Jacksonville had some early season success with favorable luck but have lost 3 of their last five games. The Jags have lost two straight to the Bengals with Jake Browning at QB and the Browns with Joe Flacco. Now they face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens who have the 2nd best overall DVOA rating in the NFL, rank 5th offensively and 2nd defensively. A perfect comparison can be made when the 49ers came to Jacksonville earlier this season as a 3-point favorite and won 34-3. Baltimore’s ten wins this season have all come by 3 or more points. You could argue that this team should be undefeated at this point. They lost in late September to the Colts in OT, completely outplayed the Steelers and lost by 7-points and in their 3rd loss of the season it took a late pick’6 by the Browns to seal their fate. The Jags true home wins are not impressive as they’ve come against the Colts and Titans. Jacksonville is 8-5 on the season but are more like a .500 team statistically. They rank 16th in offensive DVOA and 8th in defensive DVOA but they had ranked as high as 3rd just a few weeks ago. Last season the Jags beat the Ravens 28-27 so it’s not likely Baltimore will be looking past this opponent. Lay the points. |
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12-17-23 | Falcons -2.5 v. Panthers | 7-9 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta Falcons -2.5 or -3 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Huge game for the Falcons who are tied for the NFC South lead with Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Atlanta is off a deceiving home loss vs TB but outplayed the Bucs big time in that game. The Birds outgained the Bucs 434 to 290 yards and they were +2.0 YPP in that loss. They had won 2 straight prior to last week’s tough loss so the Falcons could easily be on a 3 game winning streak. Last week’s loss gives us some value here with the number where it is at -3. Carolina is now 1-12 after getting blown out @ New Orleans last week. They are dead last in point differential on the season losing by an average of 11 PPG. The Panthers are getting outgained by 1.0 YPP and their only win this season came by a mere 2 points. We’re laying only a FG here and every loss Carolina has had this year has come by at least 3 points and 9 of their 12 losses have come by at least a TD. The Panthers offense is the worst in the NFL averaging barely 4.0 YPP and they are facing a sneaky good Atlanta defense that ranks 6th in the NFL giving up only 5.1 YPP. The Cats have scored 15 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games, only topping that number vs TB where they scored 18. Needless to say we don’t expect Carolina’s offense to break out and have an unusually good performance here. Atlanta has a 6-7 record yet their numbers suggest they are better than that. They have a positive YPG and YPP differential on the season. The Falcons have dominated this series winning 12 of the last 16 meetings and we’re only laying a FG here which is the 2nd lowest spread of any team vs Carolina this season. The Panthers are just 8-20 SU vs division opponents since 2019 and we look for Atlanta to win this one by more than a FG |
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12-17-23 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Green Bay Packers -3 or -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM ET - Everyone who watched the Monday night game will be jumping off the Packers bandwagon here but we like the situation to ‘buy low’ on Green Bay. We expect the Packers to bounce back off that ugly showing and play as they did in the three previous games. Green Bay has also won 3 straight at home against the Rams, Chargers and Chiefs. The Bucs are coming off a huge win over the Falcons in a game that they were thoroughly outplayed. Tampa Bay was outgained 290 to 434 by Atlanta and averaged 4.3 yards per play which was a full 2.0 less YPP than the Falcons. The Bucs defense is decimated with injuries right now and it’s shown on the field as they allow 5.6YPP (27th), 363YPG (27th) and can’t stop the pass giving up the 30th most passing yards per game at 264YPG. The Packers are averaging the 9th most passing YPG over their last 3 games and have put up the 9th most total YPG in that same time frame. The Bucs rank in the lower third of the NFL in most key offensive categories including total YPG, yards per play, yards per rush and rank 20th in passing YPG. In their last three home games, the Packers defense has allowed 20-points or less and they have much better statistics at Lambeau than on the road. We like the Packers at home by double-digits. |
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12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions -4 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 53 h 24 m | Show |
#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -4 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - Getting very solid value here with Detroit in our opinion. They’ve had their struggles the last few weeks but let’s remember just a few weeks ago they were 8 point home favorites vs Green Bay and now the Lions are laying -4 (current line as of Thursday) vs Denver. We actually have GB power rated about 1 point higher than the Broncos right now so you can see the value with Detroit. The Lions are in must win mode at home coming off a loss last week @ Chicago (we were on Chicago) and the Packers just 2 games behind. Detroit has been much better at home this season with a YPP differential of +1.2 (on the road they are +0.1) and a YPG differential of +113. In their 2 home losses vs Green Bay and Seattle, the Lions outgained both of those opponents but they were -6 in turnover differential which makes it almost impossible to win. The Lions are averaging over 400 YPG at home and QB Goff has been much better at Ford Field completing 70% of his attempts for an average of 275 YPG through the air. Denver is on a 6-1 SU run which we feel has pushed them into overvalued range. In those 6 wins they benefited greatly from turnovers (+14 TO margin in those 6 games alone) but they were outgained in half those wins. This is the Broncos third straight road game having played @ Houston and @ LA Chargers the last 2 weeks. They have the 2nd worst road YPP differential in the NFL at -1.90. In their win over the Chargers last week, Denver caught another break when LA QB Herbert was injured in the 2nd quarter and out the remainder of the game. Despite their 6-1 record, Denver’s offense hasn’t been great during that stretch averaging less than 5.0 YPP in 5 of 7 games. We like Detroit to bounce back from last week’s loss @ Chicago and pick up a solid home win. |
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12-16-23 | New Mexico State -3.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
#207 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State -3.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 5:45 PM ET - NMSU has been a cover machine this season with a spread record of 10-3-1. Their head coach, Jerry Kill (former Minnesota head coach), has done a masterful job including keeping his team motivated late in the season when they really didn’t have anything to play for. The Aggies final 2 games of the season were “meaningless” so to speak as they had already locked up a spot in the CUSA Championship game and were bowl eligible. In their final 2 regular season games they beat Auburn on the road 31-10 as 24+ point underdogs. It wasn’t flukey at all as they outgained the Tigers by 200 yards and ran the ball for 213 yards on the SEC defense! The week after was a PERFECT letdown spot playing a solid Jacksonville State team with the CUSA Title game on deck and having just beaten Auburn on the road. They won that game as well never trailing and outgaining Jax St by 122 yards. Impressive to say the least. The Aggies did lose in the CUSA to an undefeated Liberty team but even in that game NMSU put up 500 total yards in a game that was tied in the 4th quarter. This game is in Albuquerque so a semi home game for the Aggies who are thrilled to be here. We’re not so sure Fresno feels the same way. This game was undefeated in early October and won 7 of their first 8 games and had Mountain West title hopes on their minds. They tanked down the stretch losing 3 in a row to close out the season and getting topped ATS in all 3 games by a combined 73 points! Two of those losses came vs a pair of teams that finished the year with 4-8 records, New Mexico and San Diego State by 8 and 15 points respectively. Their head coach Jeff Tedford will not be coaching in this bowl game and they have a couple of key injuries on the offensive and defensive lines. NMSU should control the trenches here as their running game averages over 200 YPG on 5.8 YPC (4th in the country) facing an Bulldog defense that ranks 98th vs the run. The Aggies average 7.0 YPP on the season (9th nationally) and they have a YPP differential of +1.0 compared to Fresno who is dead even in that category (5.5 YPP offense / 5.5 YPP defense). New Mexico State is absolutely the more motivated team here and we like them to cover this number. |
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12-14-23 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | 21-63 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
ASA play on 8* Los Angeles Chargers +3 or +3.5 at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 PM ET - We are grabbing the points here in what shapes up to be a low scoring game. The Chargers are without Justin Herbert for the rest of the season and turn to QB Easton Stick to lead them from here on out. Stick actually looked decent last week against Denver going 13 of 24 for 179 passing yards. Stick is a proven winner as he went 49-3 in college at North Dakota State. He’s been with L.A. for 5 years and knows the system as well as anyone. The Raiders also have quarterback concerns as Aiden O’Connell hasn’t really stood out. Last week the rookie was 21 of 32 for 171 yards and an interception. The Raiders offense is one of the very worst in the league ranking 29th in DVOA. Expect L.A. to focus on their running game here against a Raiders D that ranks 25th in rushing yards p/game allowed and 23rd in yards per/rush allowed. You can’t bet the Raiders and expect them to cover any number greater than 3-points when they average 15.5PPG and have scored 17 or less in four straight games. The Chargers beat this Raider team earlier this season 24-17 as a 7-point favorite and Herbert was a pedestrian 13/24 for 167 yards. As we stated earlier, with the low total of 34-points on this game we like whatever points are available and the Dog. |
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12-10-23 | Broncos +3 v. Chargers | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 38 h 3 m | Show |
#123 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos +3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Broncos come into this game off a 17-22 loss in Houston last week. Denver has won five of their last six games including wins against the Packers, Bills and Chiefs. Last week the Broncos defense held the Texans offense to 5.6 yards per play and 353 total yards which are less than their season averages of 5.8YPP and 373YPG. The Broncos defense is allowing 6.0YPP and 385YPG on the season but in their last three games that number dips to 5.0YPP and 335YPG. In our opinion the Chargers may be the biggest ‘fraud’ in the NFL this season. The five Bolts wins have come against the Patriots, Jets, Bears, Raiders and Vikings who have a combined 21 wins this season. The LA defense is near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every key category ranking 29th in total yards per game allowed (380), 29th in yards per play allowed (6.0), 17th against the run and 31st in passing yards per game allowed. Now take into consideration some of the offenses/quarterbacks they’ve faced including the Jets, Raiders, Patriots and Bears who all rank 25th or worse in offensive DVOA. The Denver offense has scored 20+ points in 8 of their last eleven games and QB Russell Wilson is quietly putting together a very nice season with 2,385 passing yards and 21 TD’s to 7 INT’s. Wilson has also added 310 rushing yards this season and has picked up crucial 1st downs with his feet when needed. Last season the two games between these two teams were decided by 3-points each. Grab the points here with Denver who wins by 3. |
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12-10-23 | Lions v. Bears +3.5 | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 35 h 45 m | Show | |
#110 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago Bears +3.5 over Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 PM ET - These two NFC North rivals met a few weeks ago in Detroit with the Lions winning 31-16 as a -7.5-point favorite. The Bears largely outplayed the Lions for most of the game before Detroit scored a TD with :29 seconds to play and then got a safety with :07 seconds left to seal the victory. The one area of that game that the Bears dominated was in the running game as they rushed for 183 yards on 46 attempts. Detroit ran it 22 times for 115 yards. That’s significant for this game as the weather conditions are projected to be horrible with high winds from 15-25mph and potential snow showers. QB Goff has played three straight games indoors and hasn’t had to play a game in adverse conditions this season. His QBR in games played outdoors drops dramatically compared to his indoor numbers. Even if the Lions decide to focus on their running game it will be extremely difficult against a vastly improved Bears defense that allows the least rushing yards in the league at 79YPG. In comparison, the Bears rush it for 4.4 yards per carry which is 9th best in the league and 137.7 yards per game which is 3rd most. Detroit has solid rushing defensive numbers for the entire season but in their last three games they are giving up 135RYPG which is 24th most. The Lions defense has allowed 26 plus points in 5 of their last six games while the Bears have allowed 24 or less in 6 of their last eight games. We like the Bears to get revenge in this one. |
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12-10-23 | Texans v. Jets +3.5 | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 35 h 41 m | Show | |
#118 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Jets +3.5 over Houston, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We’re going to plug our nose and take the Jets in this one as a solid value play in our opinion. Houston has been much better than most anticipated but now they have become a bit overvalued laying over a FG on the road in this one. The only other road game where the Texans were favored this year was at Carolina and Houston lost that game giving the Panthers (1-11 record) their only win of the season. The Texans haven’t played a road game in a month (Nov 12th) having played 3 straight home games. Historically teams that are favored by more than a FG on the road coming off 3 consecutive home games are 19-41 ATS. They also have a division game on deck @ Tennessee next Sunday and it wouldn’t surprise us at all of this young team was a little off their game on Sunday in this letdown spot. They also lost one of their top offensive playmakers in last week’s win over Denver as WR Tank Dell broke his leg and is out for the season. That’s a big blow to this offense that will be facing a very good Jets stop unit. NY ranks in the top 5 in both defensive DVOA and EPA. Last week NY lost at home to Atlanta but the defense held the Falcons to 193 total yards on just 3.0 YPP. Problem was the offense with back up Tim Boyle at QB. He was terrible in his 2 starts and cut from the team. Now they go back to Zach Wilson at QB who is much better than Boyle and should give the Jets a boost on that side of the ball. Houston struggles to run the ball and relies on rookie QB Stroud who has been very good. Here he is facing a Jets defense that ranks 3rd in pass defense and 2nd in yards per pass attempt. We’re getting cold & windy weather as well Sunday in East Rutherford, the first bad weather type game this dome team has played in this season. In what the oddsmakers think will be a low scoring game (total is 33) getting above a FG with the home team is a solid play. |
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12-04-23 | Bengals v. Jaguars -10 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville -10 over Cincinnati, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bengals offense will have big time problems generating anything in this game with Joe Burrow on the sidelines. Last week vs Pittsburgh the Bengals back up QB Browning had decent numbers (227 yards passing) but he had a number of turnover worthy plays that didn’t turn into turnovers. He threw 1 interception but that could have easily been 3 or 4. The Bengals scored 10 points vs the Steelers and we don’t see them generating any more in this game vs a solid Jacksonville defense (5th DVOA defense). Here’s the problem with Cincinnati’s offense in this game. Not only are the playing an inexperienced back up QB but they can’t run the ball at all (32nd in the NFL) which puts even more pressure on Browning to be perfect. The Jags run defense is 4th in the NFL allowing just 87 YPG so we don’t see Cincinnati’s run offense magically coming alive in this game. On the other side of the ball, the Jags are playing well offensively. They’ve put up 58 points the last 2 weeks combined but it could have been more. Last week vs Houston they averaged 6.5 YPP in a 24-21 win but they crossed into Houston territory on 8 of their 11 possessions. Jacksonville had 445 total yards but averaged only 1 point for every 18.5 yards gained which was well below their season average of 1 point every 14.5 yards gained entering last week. If they hit their yards per point average in that game they would have scored 31 points. Now they face a Cincy defense that ranks dead last in the NFL YPP allowed, 31st in total defense, 29th in rush defense, and 26th in pass defense. Last week Pittsburgh only scored 16 points on this defense but also had over 400 yards. Prior to last week Cincinnati had allowed 30+ points in their previous 2 games. This defense also ranks near the bottom of the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate which should allow the Jags to keep drives alive in this one. Jacksonville has played a tough home slate already facing SF, KC, and Houston, but in their home games vs lower tier opponents they rolled Indianapolis by 17 and Tennessee by 20. We see a similar outcome here. Lay it. |
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12-03-23 | 49ers -3 v. Eagles | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
#467 ASA PLAY ON 8* San Francisco -3 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Eagles have been outgained by at least 98 yards in four straight games, and they’ve won each one. The Bills outgained them by 127 yards, and the Eagles defense couldn’t get off the field. Philly is 7-1 in one-score games, with five of those coming against teams at .500 or worse. The Eagles were trailing in the 4th quarter in 4 of last 6 games and they’ve been trailing at halftime in 5 games and won all 5. They’ve been very fortunate to say the least. Despite their 10-1 record, Philly’s overall numbers aren’t that impressive. They are only outgaining their opponents by +25 YPG and their YPP differential is barely above water at +0.2. San Fran has 2 more losses with a record of 8-3 but their numbers are much better with a YPG differential of +90 and a very solid YPP differential of +1.7. The point differential comparison is even more telling. Despite 2 more losses the Niners point differential is +140 which is more than double that of the Eagles point differential which is +64. Total season DVOA San Francisco ranks 2nd in the NFL while Philly coming in at 9th. The 49ers are better on both sides of the ball ranking 1st in offensive DVOA and 6th defensively compared to the Eagles 7th and 17th respectively. Philly has had 4 straight down to the wire games vs Washington, Dallas, KC, and Buffalo while SF has rolled up 3 double digit wins in a row and they have extra time to prepare here having faced Seattle on Thanksgiving Day. This one sets up really nicely for the 49ers to win on the road. We’ll lay it. |
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12-03-23 | Broncos v. Texans -3 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston Texans -3 vs Denver Broncos, 1:00 PM ET - We have lost value in this game as the number crossed -3 but we still like the Texans in this situation as long as they are under -4. The Broncos have won 5 straight games and certainly played better but we aren’t sold yet. Four of those games came at home and two of those wins came by 3-total points. They were also outgained in four of those five wins. Houston was on a bit of a heater themselves with 3 straight wins prior to last weeks huge loss to the Jaguars. The Texans with CJ Stroud have been a huge surprised this season with a 6-5 SU record with all six wins coming in the last nine games. These teams have identical records, yet the Texans rank 12th in overall DVOA while the Broncos are 22nd. Houston is 12th in offensive DVOA, Denver 12th, the Texans are 20th in defensive DVOA, the Broncos are 32nd. The Texans are averaging 6.0 yards per play which is the 4th best number in the league. Houston is 6th in yards per game and 2nd in passing yards per game at 276. The Broncos defense allows 388YPG which is 30th, give up 6.3YPP (31st) and give up the 23rd most passing YPG. Denver wants to run the football with the 8th best rush offense, but Houston stops the run extremely well allowing 3.6 yards per rush which is the 3rd best number in the NFL. Denver has only played 4 road games and they go to Houston where the Texans have won 4 of their last five. The Broncos run comes to an end here. |
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12-02-23 | Louisville +1.5 v. Florida State | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
#321 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville +1.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 8 PM ET- Florida State struggled last week @ Florida but knocked off the Gators 24-15 in a game they trailed 12-0 late in the 2nd quarter. Despite the win the Noles were outgained in the game and had only 90 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC compared to 146 yards rushing for the Gators. In their first game after losing starting QB Travis the offense was not impressive. 2nd string QB Rodemaker was underwhelming completing less than 50% of his passes for only 134 yards vs a team that didn’t even qualify for a bowl game. He is dealing with a concussion issue and may not play in this game, if so FSU has 2 very inexperienced QB’s behind Rodemaker. Louisville’s defense as a whole is very good (top 20 nationally) but their run defense is the strength of that unit allowing only 96 YPG on 3.3 YPC (12th best run defense in the country). If FSU struggles to run as they did vs Florida, that puts this game on the back of Rodemaker which will make it tough. The Cards are coming off a loss vs in state rival Kentucky getting outscored 17-7 in the 4th quarter losing 38-31. U of L outgained the Wildcats 403 to 289 in that loss but had 3 turnovers, which led directly to 10 Kentucky points. The Cats also had a 100 yard kick return for TD which was too much to overcome. The Cards are 10-2 on the season and in their 2 losses they outgained their opponents by a combined 833 to 577. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedule and their YPG differential is nearly the same. The difference is FSU did their damage for all but 1 game with their high level QB Travis under center. With him out, we give Louisville the edge here. As an undefeated team that absolutely had to win this game to have any consideration for the CFP, the Seminoles have all the pressure on them in this game. We like the Cards in Charlotte on Saturday night. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon -9.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
#305 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Oregon -9.5 over Washington, Saturday at 8 PM ET - There is a reason the team that has 1 loss on the season is favored by nearly double digits over the undefeated team. On top of that, the favored team in this game lost to the undefeated team this year yet still is a hefty chalk. We’ve been saying for weeks this Washington team is trending down and has been since they beat Oregon 36-33 back in mid October. The Huskies have now been outgained in 5 of their last 7 games including last week’s 24-21 home win over Washington State. The Huskies needed a last second FG to pull that one off and they barely had 300 total yards of offense vs a Wazzu defense that came into the game 83rd nationally in total defense. Even in their win over the Ducks this season, Washington had 7 fewer first downs and they were outgained by 125 yards and that was when the Huskies were clicking on all cylinders. They are just 2-6 ATS their last 8 games and the defense has fallen all the way to 84th nationally allowing over 400 total YPG. They’ve won 1 game in Pac 12 play by more than 10 points so this team has been flirting with disaster but remains undefeated. Meanwhile the Ducks defense ranks in the top 15 nationally and has allowed 19 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Since their loss to Washington, the Ducks have won 6 in a row with 5 of those coming by at least 14 points. Despite having 1 less win than UW in Pac 12 play (Washington 9-0 and Oregon 8-1) the Ducks point differential in league play is +225 compared to +72 for Washington! Oregon also averages over 100 YPG more than Washington in conference play while allowing over 100 less than the Huskies in Pac 12 games. Oregon is the much better and more complete team right now and with 1 loss already, if they get a chance to pour it on they will do just that in their last attempt to make College Football’s Final 4. No holding back in this one. We like the Ducks by double digits. |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -8.5 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys -8.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET - Being a professional sports bettor for over 30 years makes it very difficult to lay the points with Dallas here as this play has ‘public’ written all over it. We will make an exception though and don’t feel this line is high enough yet after opening with Dallas minus -6 or -7. The Cowboys at home have put up an average of 31.5PPG and have margins of victory of over 20PPG in 5 wins. The Dallas offense at home averages 7.0 yards per play which is 7th best in the league and total over 377YPG. Dak Prescott and the offense have the #1 ranked completion percentage at home at 70.3% and average the 4th most passing YPG at home. Seattle has taken a turn for the worse this season after a solid start and have lost 3 of their last four games. The Seahawks road numbers are especially bad as they are averaging just 10.6PPG in their last three road contests and two of those came against below average defenses of the Rams and Bengals. Seattle’s offense is below average in most key categories including total YPG, rushing and passing yards per game. Thursday, they face a Dallas D that is 3rd in yards per game allowed, yards per play allowed and give up just 16.8PPG which is 4th best. The Cowboys have won 13 straight home games and have scored 38+ in four straight in AT&T Stadium. |
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11-27-23 | Bears +3 v. Vikings | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Bears +3 over Minnesota Vikings, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bears are back at full strength with Justin Fields back in at QB and we like them to give Minnesota problems on Monday night. Chicago played @ Detroit last Sunday and led for much of the 2nd half including holding a 12 point lead with under 3:30 remaining in the game. The Lions pulled out a miracle with 17 points from that point on to beat Chicago by 5. Minnesota had their 5 game winning streak ended with a 21-20 loss @ Denver last week. New QB Dobbs has looked very solid for the Vikings but struggled in the 2nd half last week leading Minnesota to just 10 points along with throwing an interception. Dobbs was also very solid to start the year with Arizona but as teams figured out the Cards offense and how they were going to use him, he tapered off and we wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here. In the first meeting this season, Minnesota was at 100% with Cousins at QB and really struggled to beat the Bears 19-13. In that game Minnesota only scored 1 offensive TD and had a long fumble recovery for a TD which was the difference in the game. Chicago had more first downs and outgained the Vikings in that loss but had 3 turnovers. Five of Minnesota’s six wins this season have come by a single score and they’ve only won 1 game by more than 8 points. Four of Chicago’s last five losses have been 1 score games. The Bears offense should get back on track with Fields back in the line up and their defense has been very good as of late jumping from near the bottom of the NFL in late September to 15th in total defense where they currently stand. Minnesota has been historically poor on Monday nights with a 5-13 spread record since 2009. We think Chicago has a great shot at the upset here. Take the points. |
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11-25-23 | Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
#233 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -2.5 over New Mexico State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This is a really solid situational spot for Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks are not eligible for a bowl game this year so you can expect them to treat this as their bowl game. They are facing an NMSU team that has already qualified for the CUSA Championship game next weekend where they will be facing Liberty. On top of that, New Mexico State is coming off a HUGE upset last weekend beating Auburn (maybe caught Tigers looking ahead to Alabama this week?) on the road as a 25 point dog. To add fuel to the fire, JSU, because they joined the conference this year is not eligible to play in the CUSA Championship. If they were, this game would be for a spot in that game with both teams at 6-1 in league play and because of that you can bet this is a huge statement game for JSU. Add that up and this is a prime letdown spot for the Aggies looking ahead to next week’s Championship game. JSU played arguably their best game of the season last week beating La Tech 56-17 and outgained the Bulldogs 628 to 269. NMSU’s QB Pavia is banged up and they rely heavily on their running game which could be a problem in this game. JSU ranks 19th nationally allowing only 106 YPG and 4th nationally allowing 2.7 YPC. On the other side of the ball JSU averages almost 250 YPG on the ground (3rd in the nation) and they are facing a Aggie defense that ranks 41st defending the run and 61st in YPC allowed. There is a reason the road team is favored over the team playing in the CUSA Championship Game next week. We like JSU to win by more than a FG here. |
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11-25-23 | Indiana v. Purdue -4.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
#168 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -4.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both these teams step into this game with a 3-8 record, however our power ratings have IU as the lowest rated team in the Big 10 and Purdue 3 points better on a neutral site. We’re getting them at basically that number at home on Saturday. Purdue is off a loss @ NW but they played that game without starting QB Card and he is expected back for this one. Even without Card, the Boilermakers were +9 first downs and +114 yards in that loss. What’s been impressive about the Purdue offense as of late is their running game. They have now rushed for over 300 yards in each of their last 2 games and the week prior to that they actually outrushed Michigan in their loss in Ann Arbor. They should have a big edge here in the trenches vs an Indiana team that ranks 107th running the ball and 120th in YPC. IU has lost 6 of their last 7 games with their only win coming at home vs Wisconsin with the Badgers playing their backup QB. And the Hoosiers were outgained in that win vs the Badgers by 80 yards but Wisconsin was -2 in turnovers. Despite the records being equal, Purdue has the better numbers vs nearly the same strength of schedule. The Boilers have the better point differential YPG differential and YPP differential. They have also covered 6 in a row vs the Hoosiers. Last year Purdue was -10.5 on the road vs IU (Purdue won by 14) and now we’re getting them at home right around a FG favorite. The Boilers lost to Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin at home however when facing lower tier Big 10 opponents (Illinois & Minnesota) they won by scores of 44-19 and 49-30. We like Purdue to win & cover at home on Saturday. |
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11-24-23 | UTSA +3.5 v. Tulane | Top | 16-29 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
#185 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams are both 7-0 in conference play and the winner of this game will move onto play on the AAC Championship game. Tulane has a few other options to make it to that game if they lose here but UTSA does not. We really like the way UTSA is playing right now and we also feel Tulane has been trending down for the last 4 or 5 weeks. The Roadrunners have won 7 straight games and they are 5-1-1 ATS during that stretch. Their offense has been rolling to say the least scoring at least 34 points in each of those 7 wins and topping 40 points 4 times. Tulane remains overvalued covering only 2 of their last 8 games and they’ve struggled with some of the AAC’s worst teams. Prior to winning and covering vs a bad FAU team last week, the Green Wave beat Tulsa by 2 (as 24.5 point favorites), beat ECU by 3 (as 17 point favorites), beat Rice by 2 (as 10 point favorites), and topped North Texas by 7 (as 20 point favorites). Their record remains great but this team is primed to be knocked off. On Friday they face the best team they’ve seen since losing by 17 at home vs Ole Miss back in September. Their offense is struggling not scoring more than 24 points in any of their last 3 games and 2 of those games were vs defenses ranked 90th and 129th nationally. We have UTSA rated as the better team and we’re getting more than a FG. When comparing the key stats in AAC play only, despite both teams having 7-0 records, UTSA has a point differential of +132 while Tulane’s point differential is +52. The Roadrunners are also +100 YPG and +1.4 YPP in conference play compared to the Green Wave who are +59 YPG and +0.5 YPP. UTSA has been a dog just once this season and that was @ Tennessee. They haven’t lost a game since September and 2 of their 3 losses this season came with star QB Harris (4 year starter with 11,600 passing yards and 91 TD’s in his career) out of the lineup with an injury. UTSA is undervalued right now and we like them to win this game and move onto the AAC Championship game. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins -9.5 v. Jets | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 86 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #113 Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs. NY Jets, Friday 3 PM ET - Let’s be upfront on this wager. It looks like we are laying a premium price with the Dolphins here as this line opened with Miami favored by -7.5 points and has been bet up steadily since. Part of the bump in the number is the speculation the Jets are going to their 3rd string QB Tim Boyle. Boyle has been in the league for 5 years out of Eastern Kentucky with 18 games played with 607 total passing yards on 72/120 passing. He has 3 career TD’s to 9 INT’s. This Jets offense is putrid! They have scored 13, 6, 12 and 6-points in their past four games. New York is averaging 4.7 yards per play this season (29th) which is even worse in their past three games at 4.1YPP. The 270YPG and 15PPG average are both 30th in the league. They can’t run (23rd) at 99.8 rushing yards per game or pass (30th) at 170.5 passing YPG. Nothing will come easy against a Dolphins defense that is 12th in total YPG allowed and 13th in yards per play allowed. Miami has one of the best offenses in the NFL rankings 1st in total YPG, 1st in yards per play (7.2), 2nd in rushing and 1st in passing. The Jets simply cannot keep up with this offense. Miami has struggled against the good teams this season, but against the bad teams they’ve dominated with 4 double digit wins. Miami is coming off a poor final score against the Raiders with a 20-13 win. They dominated statistically with 9 more first downs, had 422 total yards of offense but 3 key turnovers cost them points. This week they make a statement on Friday with a 2 or more TD win over the Jets. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 54 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #106 Detroit Lions -7.5 vs. Green Bay Packers, Thursday 12:30 PM ET - The extra ½ point on this game will have plenty of bettors on the Packers as a division dog but not us. The Lions were favored by -2.5 points at Lambeau earlier this season and put up 34-points in a 14-point win. Detroit put up over +400 total yards of offense and held the Packers to 230. In week #2 of this season the Lions were favored by 6-points at home against Seattle and lost 31-37. Since then, they have gone 4-0 SU at home with three of those wins coming by 14 or more points. Last week they trailed the Bears for most of the game before two TD’s late in the game for a win. That should serve as a wake-up call for the Lions. Green Bay has to travel here on a short week and are coming off a satisfying home win over the Chargers. The Packers QB Jordan Love has looked good the past two weeks but now he’ll be playing without RB Aaron Jones and going up against a Lions defense that is ranked 9th in defensive DVOA. Detroit is 5th against the run, 9th in total YPG allowed and 8th in opponents completion percentage. Green Bay is 18th in offensive DVOA and 23rd defensively. The Packers have one road win this season (Bears) and they haven’t faced a team of the Lions caliber on the road yet. Last season the Lions had an average +/- at home of +7.8PPG, this year that average is +8.6PPG. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Super Bowl rematch here and we’ll side the team that won that game, the Chiefs, at home on Monday night. Both teams are off a bye, however we feel this heavily favors KC and head coach Andy Reid. He’s been lights out off a bye during his coaching career with a 21-3 SU lifetime record. This line says that these 2 teams are dead even on a neutral field which we don’t agree with. We have KC as the better team and DVOA agrees with us as they have the Chiefs rated 3rd in the NFL and Philadelphia 9th. DVOA also rates KC better on offense and defense. They’ve played the more difficult schedule and they have the better numbers. KC is +80 YPG and +0.9 YPP while the Eagles are +50 YPG and +0.2 YPP. The Chiefs also have a better point differential despite having one less win. The Eagles are 4-1 SU on the road however this is their first real test away from home. Their road slate has been one of the easiest in the NFL facing the Jets, Commanders, Patriots, Rams, and Bucs thus far. Despite winning 3 straight games, Philly simply isn’t playing all that well getting outgained by more than 100 yards in 2 of those wins vs Dallas & Washington. QB Hurts has not been 100% (leg injury) and he just lost one of his top targets TE Goedert with an arm injury. KC has won 20 of their last 22 home games and all but one of those wins had come by at least 3 points. We look for Patrick Mahomes to have a big night vs a Philly defense that ranks 28th vs the pass and 29th in opposing QBR. With this sitting under a FG, we like the Chiefs to cover at home. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings +3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings +2.5 or +3 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Broncos look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 3 straight. However, they have been outgained in 2 of those 3 wins and in the other “W” they only outgained the Packers by 8 yards. They were underdogs in 2 of those wins and a small 1 point favorite vs Green Bay. Now they are officially overvalued laying nearly a full FG vs a solid Minnesota team that has won 5 straight games and covered 6 of their last 7. This Denver team is flat out bad when laying points with a 4-15-1 ATS run their last 20 in that role. They lost 13 of those 20 games outright. Minnesota has continued to play very well after inserting Dobbs at starting QB. In 2 games with the Vikings Dobbs has thrown for 426 yards on 67% completions with 3 TD’s and no picks. Their rushing attack doesn’t have good numbers for the season but the Vikes have balanced their offense out nicely with 125 and 146 yards rushing the last 2 games. On the other side the defense is vastly improved ranking in the top 10 in YPP allowed giving up a full 1.0 YPP less than last season. The Vikings have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to less than 20 points. Minnesota has the much better overall numbers on the season with a point differential of +24 (Denver is -52), a YPG margin of +35 (Denver is -100), and a YPP margin of +0.6 (Denver is -0.8). We’ll take the better overall team as an underdog in this one. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Texans | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
#453 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona Cardinals +6 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a very dangerous game in our opinion for Houston. They’ve only been favored three times this season and never more than 3.5 points. They didn’t cover any of those games and lost 2 of them outright. The Texans are coming off a huge road win topping Cincinnati 30-27 and held on for dear life with the Bengals turning the ball over in Houston territory in 2 of their final 4 possessions. We feel a letdown is in order here for a team that is not used to having much success. We feel Arizona could be a very dangerous team moving forward with Kyler Murray back in the line up at QB. They topped a solid Atlanta team last week and the Cards dominated the stat sheet outgained the Falcons by 100 yards and +2.0 YPP. Murray was dynamic under center with 249 yards passing and 33 yards rushing. His mobility will make it tough to defend this offense on Sunday. Arizona also got top RB Conner back in the fold after an injury and he ran for 73 yards on 16 carries. The entire Arizona team seemed rejuvenated with Murray back under center. We’ll see how the Texans handle some unexpected success on Sunday. Historically, poor teams from the previous season that pull upsets are a heavy play against. In fact, NFL favorites from week 5 on that are off a SU upset win as a dog and won 4 or fewer games the previous season have a spread record of 32-66 ATS the last 44 seasons! It’s hard for teams that aren’t used to success to suddenly handle success well. That goes for Houston who is 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they’ve been favored including 0-3 ATS this year as we already mentioned. Take the points in what we feel will be a close game on Sunday. |
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11-19-23 | Chargers v. Packers +3.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
#456 ASA PLAY ON 8* Green Bay Packers +3 vs LA Chargers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This is a bad line by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly capitalize on the home underdog Packers. The Packers are coming off a game in Pittsburgh they should have won as the Steelers were once again outgained but still managed to win. Green Bay racked up 399 total yards against Pittsburgh’s defense that is rated 7th in defensive DVOA and now face a Chargers unit ranked 27th. The Packers averaged 6.1 yards per play a full 1.0YPP better than their season average. L.A. is coming off a home loss to the Lions 38-41. The Lions averaged 8.3YPP against the Chargers D and put up 533 total yards of offense. Those defensive numbers aren’t shocking as the Chargers are 30th in the league in yards per play D, 31st in total yards allowed per game and 32nd in passing yards per game allowed. The Packers defense has been better than expected this season allowing 320YPG (11th best), 5.1YPP (7th) and hold opponents to 20.2PPG (12th). The Chargers rely on their passing attack offensively but have injury concerns to the WR corps and they’ll be facing a solid Packer pass defense. Green Bay allows the 7th fewest passing YPG this season at 187YPG, along with ranking 7th in yards per completion and 8th in yards per attempt. Green Bay has lost two games at home this season but that was to the Lions and Vikings (w/Cousins) who we rate better than L.A. Not to mention, the lines on those two games were lower than this one. |
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11-19-23 | Titans v. Jaguars -6.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Titans rookie QB Will Levis played well in his first start but now teams have game tape on him and can better prepare or scheme for the young QB. He is in a tough situation here with this being his third straight road game and the Titans have not played well away from home. Tennessee is averaging just 12PPG (30th) away from home and 255YPG which is 30th in the NFL. They are 0-5 SU on the road and also have a negative average differential of minus -9.7PPG. Last week the Jags schedule finally caught up with them and they faced a highly motivated 49ers team off a 3 game losing streak. They were blown out by 31-points which should serve as a wake up call this week. Prior to that game the Jags had won 5 straight games with four of those five wins coming by 7 or more points. This is one of those fishy lines with the Jags favored by 7 full points when they were only favored by 4 at home against the Colts and 3 against the Falcons. Tennessee just played at Tampa and was +2.5 and the week before they were +3 at Pittsburgh. This looks like an obvious trap by the oddsmakers as they are baiting you to back the Titans. Let’s not do it! |
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11-18-23 | San Diego State v. San Jose State -14.5 | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
#430 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -14.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We were on the Spartans last week as they rolled over a very solid Fresno State team 42-18 and we expect more of the same on Saturday. San Jose State is 5-5 and they need one more win for bowl eligibility. They are much better than their .500 record as their losses have come at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 38-15! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 7 of their last 8 games. They’ve won 4 straight in blowout fashion, including rolling over an 8-1 Fresno State team last Saturday as we mentioned. The Spartans have beaten those 4 opponents by a combined score of 171 to 63 and outgained those teams 1,830 to 1,160. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with over 1,000 yards over the last 4 games. Last week they completely dominated the line of scrimmage rushing for 313 yards to just 83 for Fresno. That was vs a Bulldog defense that was allowing just 125 YPG rushing and now SJSU faces a San Diego State defense that ranks 111th vs the run. SDSU has been a huge disappointment this season and last week’s loss @ Colorado State knocked them out of bowl contention with a current record of 3-7. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week, we may not see a lot of fight out of this Aztec team. They are getting outgained by 100 YPG and by 1.0 YPP on the season. The SDSU offense ranks 112th in total offense and 116th in scoring and they are going to try and keep up with a team that has averaged 43 PPG over their last 4? We don’t thinks so. Another easy win for SJSU who is also looking for revenge after losing to the Aztecs last season as a favorite. |
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11-18-23 | Texas v. Iowa State +7.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State +7.5 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Texas has been playing a number of tight games as of late with 4 of their last 5 decided by a TD or less. Their last 2 road games have gone to the wire winning by just 7 @ Houston as a 23.5 point favorite and winning by 3 last week @ TCU as a 13 point favorite. The Horns have covered only once in their last 5 games and they’ll have all they can handle here vs an ISU team that has had their number. Iowa State has won 3 of the last 4 season vs Texas with their only loss coming @ UT last year 24-21 as a 16 point dog. ISU had over 400 yards in the loss and outgained Texas in the process. The Cyclones are also playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 games with their only losses during that stretch coming @ Oklahoma and vs Kansas by a final of 28-21. Texas took huge blow in last week’s tight win @ TCU losing all everything RB Brooks (1,100 rushing yards and 10 TD’s) to an injury and he’ll be out for the rest of the year. The Clones are playing their home finale here with some solid momentum after rolling @ BYU 45-13 last week. They have a top 25 defense and head coach Matt Campbell has proven he knows how to defend the potent Longhorn attack not allowing Texas to top 24 points in any of their last 6 meetings. Speaking of Campbell, he’s been lights out as a Big 12 underdog with a 28-11 ATS mark in that spot including 11-3 ATS when getting points at home in league play. This is a very dangerous game for Texas and we like Iowa State to stay within this number and have a shot at the upset. |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #312 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15PM ET - Both teams are coming off huge letdown losses as the Bengals suffered a beat at home to the Texans, while the Ravens squandered a 14-point lead to the Browns in the 4th quarter and lost at home by 2. We expect Baltimore to bounce back here at home in this HUGE division game. Both teams have impressive ATS records when coming off a loss going back to 2020 with the Bengals 16-7-1 ATS while the Ravens are 14-7-1 ATS. Baltimore is 8-5 SU their last thirteen home games with an average +/- of +7PPG. Cincinnati hasn’t been the same team this season (5-4 with an ave +/- of minus -1.1PPG) after going 27-13 SU the previous two seasons. The Bengals averaged 353.8 total yards per game last season (11th) but are putting up just 301.7YPG this season which ranks 24th. In fact, the Bengals have been outgained in terms of Yards Per Play in every game this season but one. The Bengals defense has allowed 6.1YPP this season which is 31st in the league, only ahead of the Denver Broncos at 6.4YPP. In comparison, Baltimore’s defense is best in the league in this stat category allowing only 4.2YPP and giving up only 273 total YPG. The Ravens have been especially stingy in the Red Zone allowing just 34.62% (3rd) of opponent’s TD’s to be scored. Baltimore is averaging 5.7YPP on the season and score TD’s on 64.29% of their RZ attempts which is 4th best in the NFL. Baltimore outplayed the Bengals in the first meeting this season with +7 more first downs, 415YDS to 282YDS and a +1.0YPP advantage in their 3-point road win. Some may look at the dog in this rivalry, but the numbers tell us the Ravens have been much better on both sides of the football this season. Lay it! |
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11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
#262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Seahawks -6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Let’s not overreact to the Seahawks blowout loss in Baltimore last week as the Ravens are playing at another level right now and might be the best team in the league at this point in time. Seattle has a great opportunity back at home against a Washington team basically in tank mode after gutting their defense at the trade deadline. Seattle is 3-1 SU at home this season with a pair of double digit wins over Arizona and Carolina and a 4-point win over Cleveland. The Seahawks have three huge games on deck with division showdowns versus the Rams and Niners with a road date in Dallas after that. That makes this game extremely important for their playoff lives. Washington has some of the worst defensive statistics in the league over the last four games and currently rank 28th in yards per game allowed, 29th in yards per play allowed (5.9), they can’t stop the run or the pass and give up 27.2PPG which is 30th. When it comes to offense the Commanders are nearly as bad ranking 23rd in offensive DVOA. Seattle is 11th in yards per play averaging 5.6 and have managed 311.8YPG despite facing 4 defenses that rank top 10 in yards allowed per game. Washington is coming off a low scoring close win over the Patriots but now travels to the West coast to face a much better Seahawks team off a loss. Hawks head coach Pete Carroll has been historically good off a loss with a cover rate of 62%. Lay it with Seattle here under a TD. |
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11-12-23 | Colts -1 v. Patriots | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
#241 ASA PLAY ON 8* Indianapolis Colts -1 -120 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 9:30AM ET – Game being played in Germany - Obviously, a long travel situation for both teams as this game is being played in Deutsche Bank Park in Germany. The Colts offense is the 7th highest scoring in the league at 25.8PPG and this unit has topped 20+ points in ten straight games. Last week against Carolina the Colts had two pick 6’s by the defense and took a conservative approach with their gameplan and QB Minshew. Minshew had thrown 5 INT’s in three games prior to the Panther game so expect a heavy dose of the running game with Taylor and Moss. New England, particularly QB Mac Jones and the offense have been pathetic this season ranking 24th in DVOA, 27th in YPG gained, 28th in rushing YPG and 21st in passing YPG. The Pats are 31st in the league in scoring at 15PPG. New England doesn’t possess the weapons on offense to exploit the Colts weakness on defense which is their secondary that has been decimated by injuries this season. This is not your old New England Patriots. Since Tom Brady left New England in 2020 the Pats are 27-33 SU. QB Mac Jones is clearly not the answer with a league leading 9 INT’s this season and QBR of 40.3. As a dog he has been horrendous with a 3-16 SU/4-15 ATS record in his career. He has just one cover in his last 14 starts as an underdog. New England has some internal issues with players/coaches and owner/Belichick as rumors are starting to swirl about him getting fired. Favorites in overseas games are 32-10-1 SU and with this number being as low as it is we will back the Colts to get the win and cover. |
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11-11-23 | USC v. Oregon -15.5 | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
#186 ASA PLAY ON 8* Oregon -15.5 over USC, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - USC’s mental state has to be in question entering this game. They had goals of getting to the College FB Playoff and winning the Pac 12. Their playoff hopes were dashed a few weeks ago with their 2nd loss of the season and last week their 52-42 home loss vs Washington ended their Pac 12 hopes. This team is in a prime position now to get rolled by Oregon who we feel is the best team in the conference and one of the top few teams in the country. We expect the Oregon offense to pretty much do whatever they want in this game vs a terrible USC defense. In their last 6 games, the Trojan defense has allowed 40+ points 5 times and the only team that didn’t get there was Utah whose offense ranks 93rd nationally and the Utes still got to 34 points. The Ducks lead the nation in scoring at 47 PPG and we have no doubt they’ll top 50 here and we wouldn’t be surprised if they put up a 60 burger. Last week Oregon rolled vs Cal 63-19 while USC was giving up 52 points to Washington. The Ducks offense has been unstoppable ranking #2 nationally in total offense, #3 in YPP, #1 in YPC, #4 in passing yards, #1 in completion percentage and the list goes on. This USC has struggled vs everyone they’ve faced this season and now they are taking the road to play the BEST offense they’ve seen this year. Oregon is obviously a tough place to play and the Ducks are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in Eugene this year with an average margin of victory sitting at a ridiculous +42 points. That’s not their home point differential for the season folks, that’s their average winning margin at home! USC can score points but the difference here is Oregon actually has a very solid defense. They rank in the top 20 in scoring defense, total defense, YPP allowed, and rush defense. The Trojans have faced only 2 other defenses this year that rank in the top 30 and in those games vs Notre Dame & Utah, they scored 20 and 24 offensive points (minus defensive and special teams scores) and that won’t get close to getting it done in this game. These 2 teams have both played Cal & Utah within the last 3 weeks and Oregon won those games 63-19 and 35-6 respectively while USC came from 14 points down in the 4th quarter to beat Cal 50-49 and lost at home to Utah 34-32. Add in USC’s potential fragile mindset and this should be an easy Oregon win. |
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11-11-23 | Fresno State v. San Jose State -2.5 | Top | 18-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
#228 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -2.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - Fresno is more than ripe to get upset in this game. There is a reason that the 8-1 Bulldogs (ranked 25th in the Coaches Poll) are a 1 point dog vs a San Jose State team that steps into this game with a 4-5 record. First off, San Jose State has played the tougher schedule with their losses coming at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 35-12! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve won 3 straight in blowout fashion, including 2 on the road, beating those 3 opponents by a combined score of 129 to 45 and outgaining those teams 1,370 to 853. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with 727 yards over the last 3 games. Despite their losing record, the Spartans are +40 YPG, +0.5 YPP, and +50 point differential on the season. They are much better than their record. Fresno has only 1 loss but they are slipping right now and lucky to get by with their wins in recent weeks. They’ve now been outgained in 4 straight games and their QB Keene is nowhere close to 100% healthy with a knee issue. The Bulldogs are losing in the trenches getting outrushed in 4 straight games and not reaching 100 yards rushing in 2 of those contests. We were on Boise State last week @ Fresno and the Broncos had more first downs, outgained the Bulldogs BOTH on the ground and through the air. The huge turning point in that game was an FSU 95 yard kickoff return as time expired in the 1st half taking the wind out of Boise’s sails in the 37-30 game. Now they travel to San Jose and they catch the Spartans off a bye week and playing their best football of the season. We like SJSU to control this game in the trenches and win at home on Saturday night. |
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11-11-23 | Tennessee -2.5 v. Missouri | Top | 7-36 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
#195 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -2.5 over Missouri, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tennessee should be fresh here coming off a 59-3 home blowout over UConn. The Vols were up 35-3 at half and they were able to get their starters plenty of rest in the 2nd half including QB Milton who only played in the 1st half. Meanwhile Mizzou was playing in a physical game @ Georgia, a game the Tigers lost 30-21. They had a bye week leading into their game vs UGA so they put 2 full weeks of prep and emotion into that game and now might be a bit flat here. We really like the Vols edge on both lines of scrimmage with the Tennessee offense averaging 228 YPG on the ground (3rd nationally) on 5.8 YPC (5th) while the UT defense allows just 97 YPG rushing (14th nationally) on 2.9 YPC (8th). The Tigers have been far from dominant at home despite their 5-1 mark as a host. The top 2 teams they’ve played here were LSU, who beat Missouri by 10, and Kansas State who lost on a 61 yard FG as time expired. In other home games the Tigers struggled to beat Middle Tennessee State by 4 and Memphis by 7. Mizzou QB Cook is very solid but we expect he’ll be under pressure again this week just as he was last week when he completed less than 50% of his passes vs UGA. The Tennessee front 7 is very good and they are top 30 in both QB sacks per game and sack percentage while the Mizzou offensive line is outside the top 45 in both of those stats. There is also a chance Cook’s #1 target WR Burden (960 yards receiving and 7 TD’s) may not play here as he has been banged up for weeks and was injured during the Georgia game last week. Burden is easily the Tigers top offensive weapon. On the season Tennessee is +147 YPG, +1.9 YPP differential, and +147 point differential. For the season Missouri is +89 YPG, +1.2 YPP, and +76 point differential. Tennessee is simply the better team, in a better situation, and with the line where it is they just have to win this game outright to most likely get a cover. |
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11-11-23 | Miami-FL +14.5 v. Florida State | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
#127 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami FL +14.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We think Miami will give FSU all they can handle here so we’re grabbing the hefty points. We’re getting some nice value here with the Canes coming off a loss @ NC State as nearly a TD favorite. Perhaps they were peaking ahead to this huge revenge game after getting walloped by FSU last season. Miami outgained NC State both on the ground and through the air in that loss but had 4 turnovers, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs at the NCSU 3 yard line. Miami is still a very solid 6-3 on the season with high level wins over Texas A&M & Clemson. The undefeated Seminoles have been on cruise control but they’ve faced only ONE opponent with a current winning record since coming from behind to beat Clemson in OT in late September. That opponent was Duke who has a winning record but is struggling big time (lost 3 of their last 5) with QB Leonard not 100%. These 2 teams have played very similar strength of schedules and their overall key stats are actually pretty close despite FSU being undefeated. Miami is +128 YPG with a +1.5 YPP differential and FSU’s numbers are +126 and +1.8. Miami is 10-3 ATS as an underdog in this series and the last 8 times they’ve been a dog on the road vs FSU, the Canes have covered 7 times. Since 1997, only twice as Florida State been favored by more than a 2 TDs vs their in state rival Miami. This is too high and there is nothing Miami would like better than to end their arch rivals run at the College FB Playoff. They’ll be more than ready here and we expect a tight game throughout. Take the points. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers -3.5 v. Jets | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #475 LA Chargers -3.5 vs NY Jets, 8:15 PM ET - This line doesn’t make sense for a few key reasons. The Chargers are sitting at -3.5 points with heavy tickets and public support coming in on the Jets. So why won’t the oddsmakers move this line to -3? Someone knows something that the rest of us don’t. The Jets were coming off a bye prior to last week's game against the Giants so you would think they would’ve been prepared. Not so much as they managed just 251 total yards of offense and punted 11 times in the game. The Giants threw just 14 total passes for minus -9 yards. The Chargers looked good in their win over Chicago, albeit against the Bears. L.A. put up 352 total yards and 5.4YPP with QB Herbert completing 31 of 40 passes with 3 TD’s. The Jets will have a tough time trading points with this Chargers offense as QB Wilson/Jets average just 164 passing yards per game (31st) with a 58% completion percentage which is 30th in the league. New York as a home dog is 8-9 ATS their last seventeen with a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG. Bet the Chargers here. |
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11-04-23 | Boise State +3 v. Fresno State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -117 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
#425 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State +3 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We are on the Broncos plus the points when they travel to Fresno to take on the Bulldogs. Fresno is a ‘false favorite’ here with their 7-1 SU record on the season. The Bulldogs average margin of victory is +14.4PPG but that number is inflated after a 53-0 win over Kent and 29-0 win over Arizona State. Kent is one of the worst teams in football. ASU was without their starting QB, in a new system and had 8 TO’s in 13 possessions. According to our rankings, Fresno State has played the 97th easiest schedule in college football. Boise State is a misleading 4-4 SU this season and could conceivably have 6 straight wins with two of their losses coming by 1-point and 3-points. In their last three games they beat a surging San Jose State team, lost on a last second pass to Colorado State and then beat Wyoming badly last week 32-7. The Broncos dominated a Wyoming team that Fresno recently played and lost to by 5-points. We tend to favor strong rushing teams and Boise fits the bill with a unit that averages 195-rushing YPG at 5.1YPC. Fresno boasts some strong rushing statistics, but they’ve faced a weak rushing schedule with everyone other than UNLV ranked 70th or worse. Last week FSU was outplayed by UNLV, outrushed 156-56 but managed to win by 7-points. Boise State as an underdog since 2021 is 5-2-1 ATS. The Broncos get revenge here after losing in the conference championship game a year ago to this Fresno team. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas v. Iowa State -3 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
#380 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -3 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great spot to fade Kansas who is coming off their biggest program win in decades topping Oklahoma at home last week 38-33. KU scored their game winning TD with 55 seconds remaining and it was storm the field time after that win. Now the Jayhawks head on the road where they are 0-3 ATS this season with their only outright win coming @ Nevada, one of the worst teams in CFB, by just 7 points. ISU is peaking right now. They’ve won and covered 4 of their last 5 games including a double digit home win over a very solid TCU team and a 7 point home win vs one of the hottest teams in the country, Oklahoma State. The Cyclones are actually tied atop the Big 12 with Oklahoma, Ok State, Texas, and KSU with a 4-1 record. Their offense is playing well scoring 27 or more in 4 of their last 5 and the Cyclones have a big edge defensively in this game. ISU sits in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed while Kansas ranks outside the top 100 in both of those key stats. KU thrives on their running game as they only attempt 25 passes per game (114th nationally) but they are facing an ISU defense that allows only 123 YPG rushing on 3.7 YPC. Iowa State’s running game struggled early in the season but over their last 3 they averaged nearly 170 YPG on the ground and they are facing a KU defense that ranks outside the top 100 in YPG allowed on the ground and YPC allowed. KU clinched bowl eligibility last week in their win vs OU and they were ranked for the first time EVER in the current BCS poll. Huge letdown here and ISU continues to play well and wins at home. |
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11-03-23 | Boston College +3 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 41 h 16 m | Show |
#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston College +3 over Syracuse, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - BC has quietly been playing very well over the last month plus with 4 straight wins. In those games their running game, now ranked 14th in the country, has been dominant, rolling up 246, 308, 321,and 203 yards rushing in those wins. That should continue vs a Syracuse team that is in a complete free fall. The Orange have lost 4 straight games and they’ve allowed an average of 210 YPG on the ground in those losses. Offensively in those games the Cuse put up 100, 92, 124, and 0 yards on the ground. Yes that’s correct in their most recent game vs Virginia Tech the Orange lost 38-10 and were outrushed 318 to 0! More concerning is they were coming off a bye leading into that Va Tech game last week and they were dominated 6.7 to 3.2 on a YPP basis. It looks like Syracuse might be done if they can’t show up with some heart and effort coming off a bye after 3 straight losses. They continue to be overvalued and have been destroyed ATS as well losing the last 4 to the number by a combined 86 points. BC QB Castellanos had an illness last week vs UConn and didn’t play very well but prior to that he had been really solid rushing for 342 yards with 6 rushing TD’s the previous 3 games. He’s also been solid passing the ball with 1,600 yards through the air and 11 TD’s. He’s going to be a big problem for this Cuse defense that has allowed at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games. The dog has covered 10 of the last 12 BC games dating back to last year and we’ll call for it again. We know this game is in Syracuse but the wrong team is favored in our opinion. |
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11-02-23 | Titans v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #310 Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans, 8:15 PM ET - The NFL continues to give us these miserable Thursday night games and tonight certainly fits the bill with the 3-4 Titans and 4-3 Steelers. We are on the Steelers at home off a home loss. Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way, the Steelers have been outgained in every game this season. This isn’t as significant as you may think considering their schedule includes: 49ers, Browns, Ravens and Jaguars (combined 21-10 SU record). Pittsburgh has struggled offensively, ranking near the bottom of the league in most key categories but a healthy QB Trubisky should inject some life into this offense. Let’s face it, he can’t be worse than Kenny Pickett who has the 29th worst QB rating in the league, completing 61% of his attempts for just 1,330 total yards with 5 TD’s to 4 INT’s. The Titan’s defense is 22nd in yards per play allowed 20th in passing yards allowed per game and 27th in opposing QB’s completion percentage. Don’t be fooled by Tennessee’s newfound rookie QB Levis who had a few big passing plays which accounted for most of his 238 passing yards last week. We are betting he struggles here on a short week, playing in a hostile environment and facing a Steelers defense averaging 3.1 sacks per game (7th most in NFL). In the last ten years Pittsburgh has the 5th best home record in the NFL at 59-29-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +4.9PPG. We will lay the short number of -3 or less on Pittsburgh. |
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11-02-23 | Wake Forest +12.5 v. Duke | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 18 m | Show |
#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest +12.5 over Duke, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Duke’s offense has gone in the tank since the injury to QB Leonard and we see no way they should be laying 10+ points with that offense right now. Leonard is still playing but not close to 100% since his injury at the end of the Notre Dame game. Since that game, the Blue Devils have scored a total of 37 offensive points in 3 games and they’ve lost 2 of those 3 games. Because of his leg injury, Leonard has had his most positive attribute taken away and that is his running ability from the QB position. In the last 2 games he’s rushed for a total of 26 yards on 11 carries for 2.3 YPC. Prior to his injury, he averaged over 6.0 YPC. Wake’s offense is not great shakes either but they shouldn’t have to score much in this one to stay within this number. The Deacs lean on the running game and they run the ball a lot (42 attempts per game – 17th most nationally). Duke’s defensive weakness is vs the run where they rank 77th allowing 149 YPG. Offensively for the Blue Devils, they’ve really struggled to throw the ball especially now with Leonard banged up. They are 116th in YPG passing and they need to run the ball well to be successful offensively. The WF defense isn’t very good vs the pass but that shouldn’t hurt them here. The Deacs are solid vs the rush allowing opponents just 128 YPG on the ground on 3.9 YPC. Historically in this cross state rivalry, Duke has topped Wake Forest by double digits just ONCE since 2000. The projected score based on the spread and total is right around Duke 28-16. We just don’t see this Blue Devil offense that’s barely scored more than that in the last 3 games getting to that number. Wake keeps this close enough to cover. |
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10-31-23 | Northern Illinois -5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
#303 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5 over Central Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This game opened with NIU as a 3 point favorite and has jumped to -5 and we agree with that move. We have the Huskies closer to a 7 point chalk in our power ratings so we still feel there is value on the road favorite. CMU has 2 MAC wins this year vs Akron and EMU and both were tight games with the Chippewas winning by 7 and 3 respectively. Those are 2 of the worst teams in the country both rated outside the top 115 in our power ratings. CMU’s 2 MAC losses came at the hands of Buffalo & Ball State, who are both ranked outside the top 100 and have a combined record of 5-11. NIU has played the much tougher MAC slate and has a record of 3-1 and they are very close to being undefeated in league play with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Toledo, the best team in the conference. The Huskies beat Ohio by 10 points as well who is rated as the 3rd best team in the MAC. Northern & CMU have faced 2 common opponents in league play (ECU & Akron) and while Central beat those 2 teams by a combined 10 points, Northern Illinois beat them by a combined 48 points. We have the advantage at QB and on defense in this game with Northern. Senior QB Lombardi is a veteran and in MAC play he’s completed over 63% of his passes in all 4 games with 5 TD’s and 0 interceptions. CMU starting QB Bauer, who was the back up to start the season, is completing 58% of his passes this season and on MAC play vs 4 very poor teams he has 4 TD’s and 6 interceptions. Defensively NIU ranks in the top 25 nationally in YPG & YPP allowed. Central Michigan ranks 91st and 122nd in those 2 categories. On the season NIU has a +0.4 YPP differential, +32 YPG differential, and a +24 point differential. CMU has a -1.4 YPP differential, -70 YPG differential, and a -62 point differential. The Huskies by at least a TD in this one. |
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10-29-23 | Patriots v. Dolphins -9 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
#262 ASA PLAY ON 8* Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Patriots are coming off a big win over the Bills last week but will come crashing back down to earth against this Dolphins team. The Pats are 2-5 SU this season and 3-7 SU their last ten games. One of their losses earlier this season was at home to this Dolphins team 17-24 as a +1 point home underdog. Miami dominated that game by more than the final score as they averaged 6.4 yards per play compared to 4.1YPP for the Pats. The interesting note to this game is that the Patriots defensive scheme in the first meeting featured their best end rusher in Judon and best cover corner in Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez was used to blanket Dolphins WR Hill in the first meeting and held the All-Pro to 40 yards on 5 receptions. Without those two defenders we expect the #1 rated Miami offense to explode for a huge number in this one. Miami is 1st in yards per game at 462, 1st in yards per play at 7.9, 1st in rushing and 1st in passing. Wait, did we mention they average 34.3PPG which is also the highest number in the NFL. New England ranks in the bottom third in the NFL in most key offensive categories including scoring at 14.4PPG. Miami is coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV to the Eagles and will pound their AFC East rival by 2 or more TD’s this weekend. |
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10-29-23 | Jaguars -2 v. Steelers | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jags -2 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - How the Steelers have a 4-2 record we have no idea. They’ve been outgained in every game this season. They are just the 2nd team since 1970 with a winning record through 6 games after being outgained in all 6. As you might expect based on those numbers, Pittsburgh is 26th in the NFL in YPP differential and every team below them has a losing record. The offense is bad ranking 31st in total offense, 28th in rush offense, and 25th in pass offense. They have topped 300 yards of total offense just once this season and that was facing a poor Raider defense. The Steelers are 2nd in the NFL in turnover margin which has helped their cause but can’t be counted on from week to week. The Jags are rolling right now. They’ve won 4 straight games both SU & ATS and they’ve had 10 days to get ready for this one after beating the Saints on the road last Thursday night. Jacksonville should control the ground game here as Pittsburgh’s defense weakness is stopping the run. They rank 28th in the NFL allowing 142 YPG on the ground and Jax is putting up 114 YPG rushing. On the flip side, the Steelers have been terrible on the ground barely rushing for 80 YPG. Pittsburgh is averaging 61.0 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent, 31st in the league while Jacksonville is averaging 32.9 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, eighth in the league. Jags QB Lawrence is a bit banged up but has had extra time as we mentioned and practiced this week so we expect him to play. Big edge at QB and in the running game for Jacksonville so we’ll lay it. |
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10-28-23 | Ohio State -14.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
#193 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -14.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wisconsin’s going to have all kinds of trouble moving the ball and putting points in the board in this game. Versus the 2 best defenses they’ve faced this season, Iowa & Rutgers, they scored a total of 23 offensive points in those 2 games while averaging just 4.4 YPP. Last week vs a below average Illinois team UW was down 21-7 entering the 4th quarter and scored 18 unanswered points to pick up a tight win. Their back up QB Locke is now under center for Wisconsin after starter Mordecai broke his hand in the Iowa game. While Locke was solid in his first start last week vs an Illinois defense that ranks 81st in total defense. Now they face the best defense they’ve seen this season, but a longshot in our opinion, ranking 2nd in YPP allowed (3.8 YPP) and 3rd nationally in scoring defense (10.5 PPG allowed). The Bucks held a very good PSU offense, who was averaging 41 PPG entering last week’s game in Columbus, to only 12 points (with their final TD coming with 29 seconds left in the game) on just 3.5 YPP. They held PSU’s rushing attack to just 1.9 YPC and if they duplicate that on Saturday, Wisconsin is in huge trouble. On the other side OSU had some decent success last week scoring 20 points vs a high level PSU stop unit we have rated much better than Wisconsin’s. The Badgers defense is way down from previous editions with no big playmakers in the front 7. Their run defense ranks 52nd nationally after sitting in the top 10 each of the previous 4 seasons. We’re not sure they’ll be able to hold up in the trenches on either side of the ball. The OSU offense is starting to find their rhythm under new QB McCord as they average 6.6 YPP (25th nationally) and prior to last week’s game vs PSU they had scored at least 35 points in 4 of their previous 5 games. Prior to topping Penn State by 8, the Buckeyes had won each of their previous 3 Big 10 games by at least 20 points. Lay it. |
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10-28-23 | Georgia v. Florida +14.5 | Top | 43-20 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida +14.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The bottom line here is that Georgia has been overvalued in the betting markets all season long, hence the 1-5-1 ATS record to date. The Bulldogs have played an extremely soft schedule without a quality win on their resume. This team was bound to see a regression this season after heavy losses to the NFL and the loss of their O-coordinator. Georgia has impressive offensive/defensive statistics, ranking top 12 in many of the main categories but again, who have they faced? Not one of the offenses the Bulldogs have faced will be as good as this Gator offense. The best yards per game offense the Dawgs have faced was UAB, the other five FBS teams rank 79th or worst in total O. The same can be said about the misleading Georgia offensive statistics. They have faced four defenses that rank 84th or worse, three of which are 119th or worse. Now the Bulldogs will face a Florida defense that is 36th in total D allowing 345YPG. Florida has a top 10 rushing D in terms of success rate and can limit the Dawgs rushing attack without committing more players to the box. The Gators have two quality foes on their resume as they faced Utah in the opening game of the season and also hosted Tennessee. Florida is in the upper third statistically in most offensive categories and thrives in their passing game. That may be surprising with former Wisconsin QB Mertz under center. But Mertz has played well for the Gators with 12 TD’s to just 2 INT’s this season while completing 76% of his attempts. Mertz is currently the top rated QB in the SEC when it comes to 3rd downs. Mertz shouldn’t face too much pressure either as the Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in pass rush. Georgia will be without their best offensive weapon in TE Bowers which will make things difficult for QB Beck playing his first big away from home (neutral site game). With two losses this is the Gators Super Bowl, and we like them to keep this close throughout. |
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10-28-23 | Houston v. Kansas State -17 | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
#190 ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State -17 over Houston, Saturday at 12 PM ET - KSU is destroying everyone at home this season. They just beat a solid TCU team 41-3 last week at home almost 600 yards to 300 for TCU. The Wildcats are 21-9 ATS last 30 home games and 4-0 SU at home this year winning by an average score of 43-12. Houston is in a rough situational spot here. They are off a huge home game vs Texas which was considered by Houston fans (and players) as their biggest game of the season. It has been 20+ years since the Cougars were able to take on the in state big boy but now that they have moved to the Big 12, this was their one shot before Texas moves on to the SEC. Texas (-23.5 on the road) jumped out to a 21-0 lead scoring TD’s on 3 of their first 4 possessions and it looked like a blowout. The Horns lost their starting QB Ewers to an injury in the third quarter and Houston made a valiant comeback before losing 31-24. That game took a huge toll physically and emotionally on this Houston team and now they have to go on the road and play a very good team in a tough venue. The Cougars are 0-2 SU on the road this year including a loss @ Rice and 21 point loss @ Texas Tech. On top of that, this is a terrible match up for Houston. The Wildcats are very physical in the trenches on both sides of the ball and Houston is not. KSU ranks 4th nationally rushing at 233 YPG and Houston is 92nd vs the run so the Cats should run wild on Saturday. KSU ran for 343 yards last week in a TCU defense that ranked 38th nationally stopping the run coming into the game allowing only 126 YPG rushing. Now the Wildcats face a defense that can’t stop the run, as we mentioned, and might be out of gas. On the flip side, Houston is a poor running team ranking 108th rushing for just 117 YPG and KSU only allows 108 YPG rushing so the Cats should absolutely control the line of scrimmage here which is key. Houston will be a one dimensional offense a very good KSU defense. These teams have played 2 common opponents this season and we have drastically different results. KSU beat TCU 41-3 and Texas Tech 38-21 and outgained those 2 by a combined 242 yards. Houston lost to both TCU 36-13 and Texas Tech 49-28 and they were outgained in those 2 games by a combined 210 yards. Houston gets rolled in this one. |
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10-24-23 | New Mexico State +2.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico State +2.5 over Louisiana Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We like to take a strong look at underdogs that have a better rushing attack and we expect to control the trenches. That’s what we have here. La Tech is a poor rushing team that has been outgained on the ground in every game but one this season. If we take out their game vs FCS opponent Northwestern State, the Bulldogs only average 109 YPG rushing (108th nationally) on only 3.5 YPC. On the other side of the ball their rush defense is poor as well ranking 119th in the country allowing 200 YPG on the ground 5.0 YPC. That’s despite facing a fairly easy slate of rush offenses including 3 teams outside the top 100 in rushing. La Tech has faced 2 teams ranked inside the top 50 in rushing this year, Nebraska and North Texas, and those 2 teams rolled up 312 and 249 yards on the ground respectively. Tuesday they host a NM State team that ranks 2nd in the nation averaging 6.1 yards per carry and puts up over 200 YPG on the ground. Despite their success on the ground, the Aggies are not one dimensional as they pass for over 235 YPG as well and average a whopping 7.0 YPP which is 5th in the nation behind only Washington, Oregon, LSU, and USC. The Aggies record is 5-3 yet they’ve outgained all but 1 opponent (Liberty who is 7-0) on a YPP basis. NM State has a YPP differential of +1.3 and they are well coached under former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill. Their defense isn’t great, but it’s respectable allowing 5.7 YPP. Since their bye in late September, NMSU has won 3 in a row by an average margin of +17 PPG covering all 3. La Tech has been a home favorite only 7 times since the start of the 2020 season and they have covered only 2 of those games. During that same time span they have played 15 home games (FBS only) and they have a SU record of 7-8 in those games. We like the dog to win this game outright. |
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10-23-23 | 49ers -7 v. Vikings | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Francisco 49ers -7 at Minnesota Vikings 8:20 PM ET - Let’s start with the fact that the 49ers are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL while the Vikings are one of the worst. San Franisco is 2nd in the league in rushing attempts and 7th in yards per rush at 4.5 per carry. The Vikings are 32nd in rushing attempts per game and 21st in yards per rush at 4.0. You simply cannot be one-dimensional against a defense of this Niners caliber and expect to compete. Not to mention, the Vikings are without their best overall offensive player in WR Jefferson. San Francisco rates top 10 in most offensive and defensive categories while the Vikings rank around league average or worse. The Niners have some injuries on offense, but this loaded roster can overcome those shortcomings. The Vikings cannot. It’s well documented how Minnesota QB Cousins has struggled on MNF with a 2-10 SU record. Not only is his Monday night record bad, but his yards per game passing, interception rate and touchdown percentage, are also much worse. San Francisco is coming off a loss and are 7-4 ATS their last eleven in that situation, 3-1 ATS their last four with an average margin of victory in those games of +7.8PPG. Lastly, the 49ers were just favored by -8.5 points at the Browns who have the best defense in the NFL and are now laying less at the middle of the pack Vikings. |
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10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
#472 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re siding with the Eagles at home in a very solid situational spot in our opinion. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, at home, and coming off a loss as a favorite. Philly lost @ NY Jets last Sunday 20-14 but they dominated the flyboys in the stat sheet. The Birds outgained the Jets by over 100 yards and by +1.0 YPP. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 which was the difference in the game despite dominating the stats. The Jets scored half their points off Philly turnovers including an 8 yard TD drive with under 2:00 minutes remaining after the Eagles turned the ball over with the lead. We think Miami is overvalued based on their blowout wins vs bad teams. Since beating the LA Chargers by 2 points to open the season on a late TD the Miami wins have come vs New England, Denver, NY Giants, and Carolina. Those 4 teams have a combined record of just 3-21! The one high level team Miami played this year @ Buffalo, the Fins were destroyed 48-20. Miami has great offensive stats, but again, their opponents have been weak and their 70-20 win over Denver (Fins had over 700 total yards) is really making their overall stats look better than they actually are. They’ve already faced 3 of the bottom 6 defenses in the NFL. Philly’s defense is solid ranked in the top 10. Speaking of top 10, the Eagles are one of only 4 teams (SF, KC, Detroit, and Philly) that are ranked in the top 10 in both total offense and defense. We like this defense (#2 in the NFL allowing 65 YPG) to slow down Miami’s #1 rushing attack (181 YPG) and make the Fins one dimensional which is key. On the other side, Philly’s offense (#2 in the NFL) should have success running the ball vs a Miami defense thar ranks 20th vs the run and 20th in total defense. This will be just the 3rd home game for Philadelphia this season (2-0 so far) and they’ve won 14 of their last 17 home games. We like them to win this one by at least a FG. |
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10-22-23 | Falcons +3 v. Bucs | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
#451 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If we were to give you the stats of last week’s Falcons/Commanders game after the fact, we’re pretty sure you would have bet a large sum of money on Atlanta. The Falcons outgained the Commanders 402 total yards to 193 and 5.1YPP to 4.3YPP but still lost 16-24. Atlanta had a +13 minute time of possession advantage too but 3 turnovers to 0 was too much for the Birds to overcome. Tampa Bay’s offense was exposed last week by the Lions in a 6-20 loss at home where they managed just 251 total yards of offense and 4.7YPP. The Bucs offense ranks 25th in total yards per game (291) gained and yards per play 4.9YPP. Tampa is one dimensional on offense with a rushing attack that averages just 3.0YPC which is last in the league. The Bucs will have a tough time scoring in this game with a running game that generates very little success rate and a passing O that will be facing a Falcons pass D that is 4th in the league. Atlanta allows just 179PYPG and ranks 11th in opposing QB’s completion percentage. Atlanta runs for 119YPG which is 10th best in the NFL. QB Ridder has thrown for over 630 total yards in the Falcons last two games with 3 TD/3INT’s. Atlanta has a net yards per play differential of +0.3YPP compared to the Bucs negative differential of minus -0.3YPP. The Falcons should be a rush-doubling underdog in this one which is one of the stronger NFL angles dating back to the mid-1980’s |
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10-21-23 | UTSA v. Florida Atlantic +3 | Top | 36-10 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
#348 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic +2.5 over UTSA, Saturday at 6 PM ET - UTSA is still getting priced too high in the market in our opinion. Our power ratings have FAU as a slight favorite at home in this game. The Roadrunners were very good last season with an 11-3 overall record and it seems the oddsmakers are still relying on last year’s results to set numbers this season. UTSA is just 3-3 on the year and only 2-4 ATS. They did miss their starting QB Harris for 2 games this season but the offense hasn’t been great with him in the lineup. The Roadrunners are coming off back to back deceivingly easy wins which sets this one up nicely. They beat Temple and UAB handily each of the last 2 weeks but UTSA was outgained in both of those games. Those 2 opponents have a combined 4-10 record and turned the ball over 5 times in those 2 games (UTSA had 1 turnover). This FAU team is also 3-3 on the season but they’ve played the tougher schedule already facing road games @ Clemson and @ Illinois. The Owls are improving and seem to be peaking under new HC Herman (former Texas head coach) and they are finally looking comfortable with his new schemes. Since getting rolled @ Clemson in September, the Owls have covered 3 straight and won the last 2 SU vs Tulsa and South Florida. Last week they played their most complete game of the season rolling over a decent USF team who lost to Bama this year by only 7 points. In last week’s game, FAU was a 2 point dog on the road @ South Florida and won 56-14 putting up almost 600 yards on 7.5 YPP. QB Richardson, former Central Michigan starter, took over for an injured starter (Thompson) after the Clemson loss and he’s impressed with almost 800 yards passing, a 67% completion rate, and 5 TD’s in those 3 starts. He’s been getting help from his running game as well with FAU topping 200 yards rushing in each of the last 2 games. The Owls have played the strong strength of schedule and still have a better YPP differential and point differential when compared to UTSA. This Florida Atlantic team is playing their best football of the season and getting points at home vs a UTSA team that has been throwing up some false final scores as of late. Take the points with the home team. |
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10-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -12 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -12 over Eastern Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We’ve been anti EMU all season long and for good reason. The Eagles have a 4-3 record but that record is as deceiving as it gets. Their wins have come vs Howard (FCS), Kent (we have power rated 133rd – last in FBS), UMass (power rated 129th) and Ball State (power rated 121st). In last week’s 28-14 win vs Kent, the Eagles were actually outgained 343 to 218 by a Golden Flashes team that was getting outgained by an average of 221 to 460 coming into that game. EMU benefitted from 3 Kent turnovers including a pick 6. That’s vs a Kent team that had been outscored 202-42 in their 6 games vs FBS opponents this season. So EMU was facing what was the worst team in college football, they were outplayed by a lot on the stat sheet, and it was a home game for Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have been outgained in each of their wins (except Howard) by teams we have rated in the bottom 10 to 15 in college football. They are now on the road vs a NIU team that has been playing very well. Last week the Huskies beat a very good Ohio team (rated 2nd best team in the MAC) by 10 points and outgained them by +1.2 YPP. A week prior to that they roasted Akron 55-14 and before that lost @ Toledo (#1 team in the MAC) by just 2 points. The Husky defense has been solid all year ranking in the top 25 in both total defense and YPP allowed. They will have no problem whatsoever vs an Eastern Michigan offense that has been brutal all season long. The Eagles rank outside the top 115 in scoring offense, total offense, rushing offense, and passing offense. NIU has played the much tougher schedule to date and the Huskies have a +0.5 YPP differential while EMU has a -1.4 YPP differential. Northern controlled the trenches last week vs a top notch Ohio defense (130 yards rushing to 95 for Ohio) and they should own the line of scrimmage again this week. The Huskies rushing attack has really kicked it in gear over the last 4 games averaging 215 YPG on the ground and they are facing an EMU defense that allows over 200 YPG rushing this season. Kent, who was averaging 79 YPG rushing entering last week, had 163 yards on the ground vs this Eagle defense. NIU is better, and quite a bit better, in every facet of the game. We’re getting a decent line here (lower than it should be) because EMU has a faulty record as we discussed. If Eastern wasn’t 9th in the nation in turnover margin (+1 per game) their record would look quite different. This should be a blowout. |
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10-18-23 | Florida International v. Sam Houston State -5 | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 29 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Sam Houston State -5 over Florida International, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Wait a minute. The 0-6 team is favored over the 3-4 team? Not only that, the winless team is favored by more than a FG. Hmmm. We agree SHSU should be favored at home in this one and we’ll side with them here. First these teams are heading in opposite directions right now. FIU had 3 game winning streak back in early to mid September and after that run they have lost 3 straight by a combined score of 99-37. They also failed to cover all 3 of those games by a combined 50 points! The Panthers were in a great spot to pick up a win at home last Thursday facing a bad UTEP team that was down to their 4th string QB. FIU lost that game by 13 points and were outgained by almost 100 yards. Despite their overall record, Sam Houston is 3-2-1 ATS on the season. Their offense was putrid the first 3 games but they faced some tough competition in BYU, Air Force, and Houston. The Bearkats only scored 10 total points in those 3 games. However, over their last 3 games this offense has improved dramatically scoring 57 points and averaging 377 YPG. That improvement should continue here vs an FIU defense that ranks 117th in total defense and 118th in YPP allowed. SHSU has played the much tougher schedule (58th SOS compared to 132nd for FIU) and this is just their 3rd home game of the season. They’ve played quite well in their other 2 home tilts losing to undefeated Air Force 13-3 holding the #1 rushing team in the nation 80 yards and 1.3 YPC below their averaging. In their other home game they lost in OT to Jacksonville State (5-2 record) but the Bearkats were +5 first downs and +40 yards in that game. This team is overdue for a win and they know this is one of the best shots. Look for a great effort and a win and cover from Sam Houston State. |
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10-15-23 | Lions -3 v. Bucs | Top | 20-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - TB has been a surprise with a 3-1 record to start the season. However a deep dive reveals they are +7 in turnover margin in their 3 wins who have come vs Minnesota, Chicago, and New Orleans who have a combined record of 5-10. Despite their winning record, the Bucs are getting outgained on a YPP basis this season. The one good team they’ve faced was Philadelphia who rolled TB 25-11 and outgained them by 2.1 YPP and that game was in Tampa. The Lions had a lot of publicity coming into the season and we were wary of this team. Mainly on the defensive side of the ball after finishing 30th or lower in YPP allowed in each of the last 3 seasons. They’ve proven us wrong so far this season as this Detroit team looks very good on both sides of the ball. They are one of two teams that currently ranks inside the top 6 in both total offense and total defense. The other is San Francisco. DVOA has Detroit ranked as the 3rd best team in the NFL behind only San Francisco and Buffalo. They are ranked the 4th best offense and 3rd best defense per DVOA. The Lions only loss was in OT vs Seattle and the Lions outgained the Seahawks 6.5 YPP to 5.9 YPP in that game but had 3 turnovers (0 for Seattle). Detroit has one of the best YPP differentials in the NFL at +1.1 and they’ve been a money making juggernaut covering 13 of their last 15 games dating back to last season. Lay the FG here. |
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10-15-23 | Colts +4 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis Colts +4 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for Jacksonville. They just played back to back weeks in London so they’ve been overseas for 2 weeks. Coming home to play the next Sunday will be tough as the body clocks will take until mid week to adjust back. Also, being away for 2 weeks and then coming home is a distraction in itself having to get caught up on things back at home, seeing family again, etc… The Jags were 2-0 in their London trip but they were outgained in both games on a YPP basis vs Atlanta and Buffalo. In their win over the Falcons the Jaguars were gifted with 3 Atlanta turnovers, including a 61 yard pick 6, but Jacksonville only averaged 4.7 YPP. Last week vs Buffalo, they caught the Bills in a perfect spot after rolling over Miami a week earlier in a huge AFC East game. Then the Bills waited until Friday to travel to London while Jax had been their for a week plus already. Even with that, the Bills averaged 7.2 YPP while holding the Jags to 5.8. The Jags are 0-2 SU & ATS at home this year where they have very little home field advantage. As a starting QB, Trevor Lawrence is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite winning only 1 of those games outright. Indy is playing well right now. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss coming vs the Rams in OT in a game the Colts ran 20 fewer offensive snaps and still took LA to overtime. These 2 met in the first game of the season and while Jacksonville won 31-21, the Colts were starting rookie QB Richardson in his first every start and Indy led 21-17 with just over 5 minutes remaining in the game. Both teams are 3-2 on the season but the Colts have a better point differential (although very close) and a better YPP differential. We think Indy has a very good shot at the upset and if not, we’re getting some generous points. |
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10-15-23 | Ravens -5 v. Titans | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
ASA play 8* on #251 Baltimore Ravens -5 vs. Tennessee Titans, Sunday 9:30AM ET - Get in the action early when the Ravens square off against the Titans in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium overseas. Baltimore is coming off a gut wrenching 10-17 last minute loss to the Steelers last weekend and should bounce back here. Baltimore will be much better prepared for this game after getting smoked in their only other trip to London (7-44 loss to the Jags). The Ravens changed their travel schedule and got to London on Monday while Tennessee will get there on Friday similar to Buffalo last week. The Ravens are getting healthy and will have their entire starting OL playing for the 1st time since week 1. Tennessee has some injury issues of their own with NT Teair Tart questionable. Tart is their top run stuffer and it showed last week when the Colts gouged the Titans for 194 rushing yards on 34 carries. On the subject of rushing. The Ravens average 4.5 yards per carry (10th), 146 rushing yards p/game (4th) and complement the ground game with a passing attack that owns a 69.6% completion percentage (5th) and throws for 6.6 yards per attempt. Overall, the Ravens are 11th in offensive DVOA. The Titans have some solid rush defensive numbers ranking 9th in rushing YPG allowed and 7th in rush yards per attempt. But against the two other running teams similar to Baltimore (Indy & Cleveland) they lost and failed to cover in each. Tennessee doesn’t do anything well offensively ranking 24th in total YPG, 22nd in DVOA, 18th in rushing YPG and 28th in passing YPG. It will be tough sledding against this Ravens D that is 2nd in YPG allowed at 266.4YPG, 2nd in YPP defense allowing 4.1YPP and 3rd in passing yards allowed per game. In fact, the Ravens rank 2nd in defensive DVOA, only behind the Cleveland Browns and ahead of teams like Dallas and San Fran. Lay the points with Baltimore. |
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10-14-23 | Wyoming v. Air Force -11 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Air Force -11 over Wyoming, Saturday at 7 PM ET - There is a reason AF is favored by a full 10 points over a Wyoming team that currently has a 5-1 record. The Cowboys have been as lucky as you can get to reach that record this season. They’ve been outgained by an average of 52 YPG and their offense is one of the worst in college football averaging only 325 YPG (114th). They’ve had a favorable schedule with all home games with the exception of their game @ Texas, a 31-10 Wyoming loss, and in that game they caught the Longhorns the week after they beat Alabama on the road. They have not been on the road in full month and we think they’re running into a buzzsaw here. Air Force is 5-0 on the season and they are coming off a bye week. The Falcons rank #1 nationally averaging 330 YPG on the ground and they are facing a Wyoming defense that ranks 76th defending the run and 78th in YPC allowed. They’ve allowed at least 200 yards on the ground in 2 of their last 3 games and we think they’ll struggle to stop the rested Falcons here. The AF offense is humming scoring at least 39 points in every game but one this season. Defensively they’ve been elite ranking in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing YPG allowed, and passing YPG allowed. Wyoming will have trouble keeping up in this game with a poor offense vs that defense. This is also a revenger for Air Force after losing by 3 points @ Wyoming last year as a -16.5 point favorite. The Cowboys are playing for the 7th consecutive week and are off an upset home win over Fresno State (Wyoming was +6 at home in that game). The Falcons have won every game this season by double digits by an average score of 37-12. They have quietly won 19 of their last 22 games with 15 of those wins coming by at least 10 points. Lay it. |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Cowboys +4 at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This is a rematch of the playoff meeting between these two teams when the Niners won at home 19-12 as a -3.5-point favorite. That game was relatively close throughout with the 49ers averaging 5.1YPP compared to Dallas and their 4.7YPP. These two teams along with Philadelphia are the best of the NFC and we expect this game to be decided by a field goal or less either way. Dallas is 4th in scoring at 31PPG but have largely failed in Red Zone scoring percentage at 36.8%. They have received some scoring help from their defense but clearly the offense is better than their overall numbers. The Cowboys have kept the chains moving by converting 51.61% of their 3rd downs with the 7th best rushing offense in terms of total yards. QB Dak Prescott also has the 6th best completion percentage in the NFL. Obviously, San Francisco has incredible offensive numbers ranking 3rd in rushing YPG and 9th in passing YPG. Defensively these two teams have plenty of similarities and if you look you’ll see both rate top 5 in most key categories. The one slight advantage the Cowboys have will be in pressuring Niners QB Purdy as Dallas has the 2nd best sack percentage in the league. These are two very even teams and getting more than a field goal with Dallas is the way to play it. |
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10-08-23 | Bengals v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
#466 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Cincy is living on their past few years because this team isn’t good right now. They rank dead last with a -1.7 yards per play differential. They have 1 win and in that 3 point victory over the Rams they were actually outgained by 1.3 YPP. QB Burrow not close to 100% and that’s obvious. He needs to sit and rest his calf to get healthy but they continue to play him. He’s dead last in the league in QBR and has zero mobility. The Cards were expected by most to be terrible this season. While they only have 1 win, they’ve proven that not to be the case. This team plays hard under new head coach Gannon and believe it or not, offensively Arizona is averaging 1.7 YPP more than the Bengals this season. The last 2 weeks the Cards have played what most consider to be the 2 best teams in the NFC and played well for the most part. The beat the Cowboys here at home by 12 points 2 weeks ago and it was no fluke. Arizona averaged an impressive 7.5 YPP in that game while holding Dallas to just 5.5 YPP. Last week they did lose @ San Francisco by double digits but that was a 5 point game in the 4th quarter. The Bengals are averaging a league low 12 PPG and this is their 2nd straight week on the road after getting roasted @ Tennessee 27-3 last Sunday getting outgained 400 to 211. The Bengals continue to be overvalued on past laurels and have failed to cover the spread in any game this year losing to the number by 53 combined points. We think Zona has a solid shot at the outright win. Take the points. |
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10-08-23 | Texans +2 v. Falcons | 19-21 | Push | 0 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
#453 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Texans +2 at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Houston Texans have clearly been one of the bigger surprise stories this season with rookie QB Stroud playing above expectations. Stroud is 4th in total passing yards at 1,212 with 6 TD’s to zero INT’s. It’s not like he’s throwing short underneath passes either (Ridder) as he ranks 12th in intended air yards. We mention the Falcons QB Ridder who is really struggling with Atlanta’s offense and has a QBR of 29.2 which ranks 31st in the NFL. Ridder has just 744 passing yards with 3 TD’s to 3 INT’s. Atlanta has produced just 13 total points in their last 8 quarters and average just 15.5PPG on the season. In their last two games the Birds have averaged just 2.8 yards per play against the Lions and 5.0YPP last week against the Jaguars who allow 5.4 on the season. Atlanta is 28th in yards per point offensively and 26th in yards per play. The Falcons defense has some solid numbers including a pass defense that allows just 176PYPG but overall, this unit ranks 23rd in defensive DVOA. Houston is 5th in team total yards offensively this season, rank 16th in yards per point and 13th in yards per play. They are averaging 24PPG and coming off a game against a Steeler defense where they managed 451 total yards. In their last two games they have averaged 6.5YPP against the Jags and Steelers. Stroud and the Texans will have time to throw against this Falcons team as they rank 30th in sack percentage. Lastly, the Falcons are coming off a game overseas and that travel takes a toll on the entire roster. The wrong team is favored here. Bet the Texans. |
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10-07-23 | Michigan -17.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 52-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
#401 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan -17.5 over Minnesota, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We see this game playing out very similar to last week’s Michigan win @ Nebraska 45-7. The Husker are actually a better team than Minnesota this year (according to our power ratings) as they dominated the stat sheet @ Minnesota in week 1 but lost 13-10 due to 4 turnovers. Minnesota struggled here last week vs UL Lafayette but won by 11 despite getting outgained 6.7 YPP to 5.3 YPP. ULL held Minnesota to just 347 total yards and the Gophs were lucky to put up 35 points with those yardage numbers. ULL did rush for 180 yards on the Gopher defense which has taken a big step back this season. That’ll be a problem vs the potent Michigan rushing attack that had 249 yards on the ground last week vs a very good Nebraska defense last Saturday. The Wolves were going through the motions their first 3 games off the season which were all easy wins but non-covers. The last 2 weeks vs Big 10 opponents they scored 76 points and held those teams to 14 points combined. Now with their head coach Harbaugh and OC back on the sidelines after missing games early this season due to suspensions, we look for Michigan to roll. Minnesota has played a relatively easy schedule with the best team they played, North Carolina, rolling over the Gophs 31-13 and outgaining them 519 to 303. Their other opponents are Eastern Michigan (bad MAC team), Nebraska (lower tier Big 10 team), Northwestern (lower tier Big 10 team) and UL Lafayette from the Sun Belt. Despite their strength of schedule (62nd) the Gophers have been outgained on the year on both a YPG and YPP basis. Similar to last week’s Michigan game vs Nebraska – Minnesota can’t pass (120th at 149 YPG passing) and you can’t run on Michigan as they are allowing 85 YPG on the ground. Last week a solid rushing team, Nebraska, had 106 yards on the ground and 74 of those came on one run late in the game – the Huskers only TD. On top of that, Minnesota’s top RB Taylor didn’t play last week and it doesn’t look like he’ll be ready for this one. The Wolverines have won 30 of their last 31 regular season games and 25 of those have come by double digits. Michigan can name the score here and we look for a blowout. |
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10-06-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Illinois | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 61 h 43 m | Show |
#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Friday at 8 PM ET - We have Nebraska power rated as the better team in this match up and they are getting just north of the FG. After back to back wins the Huskers were crushed last week at home vs Michigan which wasn’t unexpected as the Wolverines just might be the best team in the country. The Nebraska offense was actually decent averaging 5.9 YPP but only ran 46 offensive snaps to 74 for Michigan. Their defense really impressed us this season but struggled vs one of the top offenses in the country last week. We expect them to bounce back and play very well vs an Illinois offense that ranks 75th nationally in total offense and is averaging just over 21 PPG (105th nationally). After their loss vs Michigan, Cornhusker head coach Matt Rhule held a surprise full pad, full contact practice on Sunday and our word is it was one of their best practices of the season. The Illini were blasted 44-19 @ Purdue last week and that’s a Boiler team that entered that game with only 1 win on the season (by 7 points) vs a bad Va Tech team. Illinois has 2 wins on the season coming by 2 points vs Toledo and by 6 points vs a bad FAU team. We were on the Illini in that game vs FAU and thought it was a perfect spot for them to get back on track vs the Owls who were rolled @ Clemson a week earlier and lost their starting QB in that loss. Illinois was only able to beat FAU 23-17 in a very disappointing performance. Their defense has dropped off drastically this season after losing a number of key players to the NFL. The Illini gave up over 200 yards rushing last week vs Purdue and are giving up 180 YPG on the ground this season (110th). That’s a problem vs a Nebraska offense that is putting up over 200 YPG on the ground (15th nationally) and are continuing with Haaberg at QB who has 255 yards rushing in his 3 starts. Nebraska is much better defensively this season allowing 4.6 YPP (that includes game vs Michigan) compared to the Illini allowing 5.5 YPP. Nebraska really should be 3-2 on the season after completely outplaying Minnesota on the road in week 1 (lost 13-10) with other losses @ Colorado and at home vs Michigan. We give the Huskers a great shot at winning this one outright so we’ll take the points. |
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10-05-23 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 48 m | Show |
#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech +6.5 over Western Kentucky, Thursday at 8 PM ET - WKY is overvalued coming into this one and our power ratings have them as just under a 3 point favorite and they opened -7. It has since dropped a bit but still some solid value on the host La Tech. Western Kentucky is coming off a solid 31-10 win over MTSU however the yardage was much closer than than (444 to 373) and the Blue Raiders had 3 turnovers. MTSU left a number of points on the field getting shut out on downs twice inside WKY territory to go along with their turnover problems. It was actually the first time this season the Hilltoppers (3-2 record) have outgained their opponent (minus FCS competition). Western is averaging 382 YPG on the season (76th nationally) while allowing 472 YPG (130th). They rank 106th defensively allowing 6.2 YPP on the season and they have allowed over 500 yards in 3 of their 4 games vs FBS opponents. So we have a team laying nearly a TD on the road despite being poor on defense. Not a great recipe for success. Their offense has also taken a big step back (-130 YPG compared to last year) after losing their OC in the off season to Washington State. La Tech moved to 3-3 on the season after a road win @ UTEP last Saturday. Their offense has been comparable to WKY averaging 376 YPG but the Bulldogs defense is allowing nearly 100 fewer YPG than the Hilltoppers. The host also has the much better rushing attack (153 YPG on the ground to just 98 YPG for WKY) and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that gives up over 200 YPG on the ground. Western is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks here and on a short week. We’ll take the points with Louisiana Tech at home. |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +2 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY GIANTS +2 vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 8:20 PM ET - This is one of those ‘plug your nose’ bets as the Giants have not looked good this season and currently stand 1-2 SU. Clearly a big reason for that losing record is the schedule they’ve faced with games against the Cowboys, 49ers and a better-than-expected Cardinals team. Dallas and San Francisco are arguably the two of the best defenses in the league along with the Browns. So, when you look at the Giants offensive numbers it’s understandable why they are so disappointing. Seattle on the other hand has faced a soft schedule with the Panthers, Rams and Lions. The win in Detroit is solid but the Lions were off a huge MNF win against the Chiefs and simply overlooked this Seahawks team that lost to the Rams in the opener. The Seahawks are 24th in the league in sacks per game and 29th in sack % defense. They don’t possess a pass rush capable of getting to Giants QB Jones. The Giants can get to Hawks QB Smith as the Seattle offensive line has been hit hard with injuries. The Yards Per Play differential for the Giants is not a pretty number as they are minus -1.1YPP, but again look at who they’ve faced. Seattle also has a negative differential as they average 5.6YPP on offense but allow 5.8YPP. Seattle has been a road favorite just 5 times since 2021 and they shouldn’t be laying points here. |
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10-01-23 | Vikings -4.5 v. Panthers | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
#255 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings -4.5 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - All 0-3 teams are not created equal. Both teams 0-3 but Vikes could easily be 3-0 with 3 losses by combined 13 points. In their first 2 games of the season Minnesota outgained both TB & Philly by more than +1.0 YPP. Last week’s 4 point home loss to the Chargers also could easily have gone Minnesota’s way as their final 2 drives they were shut out on downs at Chargers 2 yard line and then threw a pick in the end zone. The main problem has been turnovers. The Vikes are minus 7 turnovers worst differential in NFL. Offensively they’ve been really good ranking 2nd in the NFL in YPP and 3rd in total offense (over 400 per game) and 82% of their scoring plays have been TD’s so they can score. That will be a problem for Carolina as we do not envision the Panthers keeping up on the scoreboard in this game. Panther QB Bryce Young comes back on Sunday which is a plus for Minnesota as backup Andy Dalton actually gives them a better chance to win right now. The Panther offense has been bad with Young under center scoring only 2 offensive TD’s this season and averaging just 4.1 YPP. Young makes ver few big plays with Young ranking dead last in yards per pass attempt (a lot of short passes). Despite their winless record, the Vikings have a positive YPP differential (+0.6) while Carolina is getting outgained regularly (-0.6 YPP differential). If Minnesota can straighten out their turnover issues, they should win this game comfortably. |
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10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars -3 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
#252 ASA PLAY ON 8* Jacksonville Jaguars -3 over Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET – Game in London - Traveling to London can be a tough transition for NFL teams but the Jags are more than used to this. They have now played in London each of the last 9 seasons which gives them an advantage knowing how to prep for this situation. Jacksonville is coming off an embarrassing setback at home vs Houston and we like them to bounce back in this situation. They outgained Houston and had more first downs but had an array of mistakes missing a FG, getting a FG blocked, and turning the ball over twice. Defensively the Jaguars weakness has been defending the pass. That may not be exploited on Sunday vs a Falcons offense that only averages 155 YPG through the air and a first year starting QB Ridder who has not been overly impressive ranking 29th in QBR. Atlanta has a tougher situation as they were on the road @ Detroit last week – lost 20-6 – and now have to head to London for 2nd of back to back long road trips. This will be their first outdoor game of the season and their offense has not been good averaging just 18 PPG and only 4.5 YPP (26th in the NFL). The Jacksonville offense finished in the top 10 in both total offense and efficiency (YPP) last season but they’ve struggled out of the gate. Part of the problem has been dropped passes as they already have more than any other team in the league. This offense, with many of the key components back from last season, will be much better than they’ve looked. The Birds have won just 1 of their last 11 games not played in their home stadium and the add another “L” to the ledger on Sunday. Take the Jags. |
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09-30-23 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia Southern -6.5 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
#146 ASA TOP PLAY ON Georgia Southern -6.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Georgia Southern has been very impressive this year under HC Clay Helton (former USC head coach) with a 3-1 record. Their only loss on the season was @ Wisconsin and GSU actually outplayed the Badgers in that one (more first downs & total yardage) but had 6 turnovers (0 for Wisconsin) in that setback. They bounced back nicely after that loss trouncing Ball State on the road 40-3 last Saturday. The Eagles offense has been tough to stop ranking 18th nationally in YPG and 7th in yards passing. Tulsa transfer QB Brin has completed 73% of his passes this year for 1,300 yards in just 4 games. If he can avoid the turnover, the GSU team will be very tough to beat. Brin does have 7 interceptions on the season, but again 5 came in one game vs Wisconsin. The defense has improved dramatically over last season allowing 334 YPG so far this season after allowing over 500 YPG a year ago. Coastal has taken a step back as we expected. They had a turnover on the coaching staff with their head coach moving onto Liberty. The Chanticleers are 2-2 on the season coming off a 30-17 home loss vs Georgia State. Their only 2 wins have come vs FCS Duquesne and Jacksonville State. This will be their first road game in almost a month and GSU has been waiting for this one. The Eagles went to Coastal last year and almost pulled the upset losing 34-30. GSU led by 10 in the 4th quarter in that game but allowed CC to score TD’s on each of their final 3 possessions. If we subtract games vs FCS teams this year, GSU still has a +0.6 YPP differential while Coastal is -0.8 YPP. The Eagles could have easily won on the road last year vs Coastal and we have upgraded GSU this year while the Chanticleers have clearly taken a step back. We’ll side with Georgia Southern at home. |
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09-30-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Central Michigan -9.5 | 23-26 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
#154 ASA PLAY ON 8* Central Michigan -9.5 over Eastern Michigan, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - We faded EMU last week @ Jacksonville State (-6.5) and picked up an easy 21-0 win. As we mentioned last week, Eastern Michigan had a record of 2-1 (now 2-2) but they were very lucky to have won any games this season. Their wins came vs Howard (average FCS team) and UMass who we have power rated as one of the 5 worst teams in the nation. Despite the wins, EMU was actually outgained in the Howard game by 120 yards and needed not one but two kickoff return TD’s to win by 10. In their game last week vs a bad UMass team, EMU was again outgained by 93 yards, they were +3 in turnovers, and still need a 50 yard passing TD with just over 1:00 minute remaining in the game to win 19-17. In their loss the Eagles were blasted by Minnesota, allowed almost 300 yards rushing and they were outgained 413 to 152! In last week’s loss the Eagles only had 152 yards of total offense and gave up nearly 400 to JSU. The Eagles were outrushed 295 to 57 in the loss. Now on the road again for the 2nd straight week we think there’s a good chance they get blasted again. CMU is also 2-2 but they’ve played a tough schedule with losses @ Notre Dame and @ Michigan State (prior to MSU coach firing) and last week the Chippewas looked very good upsetting South Alabama on the road as a double digit underdog. That was just 1 week after South Alabama topped Oklahoma State on the road 33-7! CMU put up 34 points last week vs a solid South Alabama defense and they are facing an Eastern Michigan offense that can’t score (just 23 total points in 3 games vs FBS opponents). EMU ranks 131st (out of 133) in the nation in total offense (240 YPG) and on the other side of the ball their rush defense ranks 130th allowing 230 YPG on the ground. CMU won 3 straight vs the Eagles from 2019 – 2021 by an average margin of +18 PPG before losing @ EMU as a 1.5 point favorite last year. Central dual threat QB Emanuel will be EMU’s poor defense fits here and we like the Chippewas to get their revenge. Double digit win here. |
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09-30-23 | Clemson v. Syracuse +7 | 31-14 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
#126 ASA PLAY ON 8* Syracuse +7 over Clemson, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We were on Clemson last week in what we thought was a great spot getting them in a rare home underdog role. The Tigers outplayed FSU in the stat sheet and never trailed in regulation. They lost by 7 in OT and we expect them to be flat here after blowing that game and ending their shot at the College Playoff. Now they are in a really rough spot going to a venue they’ve struggled in versus an opponent who sees this as one of their biggest games of the season. The Orange have covered 3 of the last 4 at home vs Clemson and their most recent game in the Carrier Dome (now JMA Wireless Dome but we can’t bring ourselves to call it that) in 2021, Syracuse outgained the Tigers but lost 17-14. They missed a FG with under 1:00 minute remaining which would have tied the game. Last year Cuse traveled to Clemson and gave them all they could handle losing 27-21 in one of the toughest stadiums to play in CFB. Syracuse is 4-0 on the season (3-0-1 ATS) but started a bit slow last week vs Army (looking ahead to this game?) before rolling to an easy win and holding the Cadets potent rushing attack to just 2.7 YPC. This Orange defense ranked in the top 25 nationally last year in YPP allowed and they are in the top 20 this year in that stat. Offensively they have a veteran QB Schraeder who is very dangerous throwing for almost 1,000 yards already this season while rushing for over 300 on nearly 7.0 YPC. They are averaging 44 PPG on the season through 4 games. The Clemson offense has some cluster injuries at the WR position and they’ve had problems with the Syracuse defense scoring only 44 points the last 2 meetings combined. This is a HUGE home game for Syracuse and they are catching Clemson in a perfect spot for an upset. We’ll take the points. |
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09-28-23 | Lions -1.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Detroit Lions -1.5 at Green Bay Packers, Thursday 8:15PM ET - One big advantage the Lions have over the Packers in this game is their offensive line is much better than Green Bay’s. The Packers are without two starters on the O-line here in Bakhtiari and Jenkins who provide valuable protection for QB Love and running lanes for RB Jones. Green Bay will get Aaron Jones and WR Watson back for this game, but it may not matter if Love doesn’t have time to throw the football. Detroit allows just 4.6YPP this season which is 6th best in the NFL. The Lions are giving up just 3.2 yards per rush attempt which is 5th best in the league. In comparison, the Packers allow 4.3 yards per rush (18th) and 5.0YPP overall which is 16th. Offensively, the Lions have an edge here too with one of the better O-lines in the NFL. Detroit is averaging 5.8YPP (7th best) versus Green Bay who averages 5.0YPP (16th). These two teams both faced the Falcons this season. Detroit dominated the Falcons in a 20-6 win with 358 total yards to 183 and a YPP advantage of 7.4YPP to 3.1YPP. Green Bay faced this same Atlanta team the week before (lost 24-25) and gave up 446 total yards to the Birds, 5.7YPP while gaining just 224 total yards themselves at 5.4YPP. Detroit has won and covered 3 of the last four meetings with the Packers and even though Love has played well, we like the veteran QB Goff and the Lions in this one. Detroit is on a 14-6 ATS streak dating back to the start of last season and cash the ticket here. |
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09-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Illinois -15 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 36 m | Show |
#360 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -15 over Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The Illini are just 1-2 on the season but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country thus far already facing the best team in the MAC (Toledo), one of the better teams in the Big 12 (Kansas), and a top 10 team (Penn State). Now they take a big step down in competition and we think Bret Bielema and company are ready to paste someone. This looks like that spot as they face an FAU team that hasn’t been able to score points and now will be playing without their starting QB. The Owls have scored a grand total of 2 offensive TD’s in their 2 games vs FBS opponents (Ohio & Clemson) and both of those came last week @ Clemson when the Tigers already had a 41-0 lead and were already looking ahead to their game this week vs FSU. The Owls have averaged a ridiculously bad 3.3 YPP vs those 2 FBS teams which ranks them 132nd nationally (out of 133 teams). The Illinois defense was fantastic last season ranking 4th nationally in total defense and we expected a step back after losing some key players. They are still much better than they’ve shown thus far vs 3 high level offenses and now they get a reprieve and we expect the defense to shut down FAU. Last week they showed quite well holding a very good PSU offense to 4 YPC and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. This will be the Illini’s 3rd home game this season and in their first 2 they looked solid. They topped a very good Toledo team in week 1 and were impressive offensively averaging 6.1 YPP while holding the Rockets to 5.3 YPP. Last week they lost 30-13 here vs Penn State but that was a bit deceiving. The overall and YPP yardage was very close to even in that game. Problem was Illinois was -5 in turnovers and 4 of those giveaways led directly to 20 of PSU’s 30 points. Illinois does have their Big 10 opener @ Purdue on deck but coming off 2 losses we don’t expect them to be peaking ahead here. Bielema has never been afraid to win big vs inferior competition and he knows his team needs some confidence going into conference play. Blowout here. |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin v. Purdue +6 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 20 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue +6 over Wisconsin, Friday at 7 PM ET - We’re not about to lay points on the road with this transitioning Wisconsin team that has struggled with the changes early in the season. Their opening 21 point win over Buffalo is not all that impressive as the Bulls have since lost to FCS Fordham and then were destroyed at home by Liberty. Their lone road game was a 9 point loss @ Washington State and last week they were tied at 7-7 at home vs Georgia Southern at halftime but SIX GSU turnovers allowed Wisconsin to pull away. For the Badgers to be a 20.5 point favorite and only cover by a half point despite being +6 in turnovers is telling. This UW defense is not on par with previous editions. They don’t have any big time playmakers in the front 7 and their pass defense was shredded last weekend vs Georgia Southern for 383 yards through the air. After 3 games this pass defense ranks outside the top 100 in passing YPG allowed and outside the top 90 in opponent completion percentage. Now they face a solid Purdue passing game with Texas transfer QB Card at the helm who has thrown for 825 yards (65.5% completions) in 3 games. Purdue had a deceiving score as well last week due to turnovers but, unlike Wisconsin, they were the team turning the ball over. The Boilers lost to Syracuse but they were -4 in turnover margin while the total yardage was fairly close. We feel we’re getting some line value here as well. We have Syracuse and Wisconsin currently power rated about dead even yet the Badgers are laying 6 points this week and Cuse laid just 2.5 here last Saturday. UW has dominated this series as of late but their defense looks susceptible and the offense is still learning the ropes of their new scheme. We’ll call for this one to go down to the wire so the points should be valuable. |
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