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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers OVER 52 | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 52 Points – Tampa Bay @ Green Bay, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were waiting on the weather here and it now looks like it will actually be perfect. Snow ending early in the morning and light winds by game time. We like an easy Over here between these two high powered offenses. The Bucs have the 2nd best offense in the NFL in terms of yards per point as on average it takes them just 12.6 yards to score 1-point. The #1 rated team in that category is Green Bay who takes just 12.4-yards per point. The Buccaneers average 30.7PPG on the season while the Packers put up 31.8PPG which ranks them in the top two of the NFL. These two teams just faced the Rams and Saints who had two of the better defensive units in the NFL and they both put up 30+ points each. Green Bay’s defense has been ‘average’ all season long and currently rank 17th in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders. In their last ten games the Packers have faced seven teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive DVOA so their recent defensive statistics are skewed. Now they face a Bucs team that is 3rd in the NFL in DVOA. Green Bay is 19th in yards per point defensively, Tampa Bay is 13th. Tampa Bay has some misleading defensive numbers of their own as they’ve given up 20 or more points in eight of their last ten games and one of the games, they didn’t allow 20+ was against a bad Lions offense. The Bucs recently have allowed 23-points to an anemic Washington offense and 27 points twice to Atlanta who averaged 13.9 yards per point against them. Imagine what Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are going to do. Packers have scored at least 30 points in 13 of their 17 games this season and Tampa has scored at least 24 points in 15 of their 18 games on the year. The Packers worst game offensively this year, by far, was at Tampa but they did score 10 points on their first 2 drives before turnovers did them in. In that game, Aaron Rodgers threw 2 interceptions including a pick 6 and completed only 45% of his passes – he completed at least 60% in every other game this season. It was just the 5th time since 2013 that Rodgers hit on less than 50% of his passes in a game. He was under constant pressure getting sacked 4 times and hit 13 times. Just one of the worst performances of his career. That kind of stuff motivates him and we expect him to play great on Sunday. Can the OLine give him time? We absolutely believe so as they played great last week vs a Rams defense that came in ranked #1 in sack percentage. Rodgers was not sacked once in the game and he was only hit 1 time. Tampa’s offense is also playing as well as they have all season scoring at least 30 in 5 straight games. Both of these teams have the ability to hit 30 points. With the spread set at GB -3.5, the final score is expected to be in the range of 28-24. GB scored 32 last week vs a Rams defense that is better than this TB stop unit. We could argue the score could have been worse than 32-18 last week as the Packers scored on their first 5 possessions vs the #1 defense in the NFL and only punted twice. We anticipate GB topping 30 here which means Tampa won’t actually have to go crazy on offense to get this OVER 52 points. Play the OVER here. |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over the Total – Cleveland @ Kansas City, Sunday at 3 PM ET - High total here but we still don’t think It’s high enough. Both of these teams have a strong potential to reach the 30’s in this game and we wouldn’t doubt it if both get above that number. KC has had a few weeks off so we know HC Andy Reid will have a number of new wrinkles on offense. He always has his team ready offensively but especially so in the playoffs with time off. The last 2 years in the division round (week off heading into the game) the Chiefs have scored 82 combined points or 41 PPG. They are facing the weakest defense remaining in the playoffs as Cleveland ranks 25th in DVOA defense. Speaking of the weakest defense remaining, KC is right their with Browns ranking 22nd DVOA defense (the 2nd worst defense left in the post season). Both defenses weaknesses match up very poorly with the opposing offense. KC is 31st DVOA rush defense and Cleveland is one of the top running teams in the league ranking 7th DVOA rush offense. On the other side, the Browns are poor at slowing down opposing pass offenses ranking 25th DVOA defense vs the pass and KC’s pass offense is fantastic ranking 2nd DVOA pass offense. Both of these offenses have the potential to put up big numbers in this game. The Chiefs reached 30+ points in 9 of their 15 games (we are excluding the final regular season game when they sat Mahomes and starters) including games vs Saints, Ravens, and the Dolphins, all top 5 scoring defenses. The Browns offensive numbers are lower than they should be on the season as they played 3 games at home in extremely high winds & 1 game without their entire WR corps. If we subtract those games Cleveland averaged 30 PPG and that includes a 6 point performance in the season opener @ Baltimore and a 7 point performance @ Pittsburgh. They hit 30+ points vs some very good defenses as well including Pittsburgh (last week), Baltimore (in 2nd meeting), Indianapolis, and Washington. We know Mahomes will put up big numbers, however Cleveland QB Mayfield has been playing great as well down the stretch throwing for 2000 yards, 14 TD’s and 1 interception since Thanksgiving. We know Cleveland will have to “keep up” on the scoreboard here and they are more than capable of doing so. OVER is the play. |
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01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore +2.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - The Ravens should have a huge advantage on the ground in this game. They are the #1 rush offense in the NFL (191 YPG) and they’ve been on fire as of late averaging 262 YPG rushing over their last 6 games including topping 230 yards rushing in 5 of those games. That success should continue facing a Buffalo defense that allows 4.7 YPG (27th in the NFL) and gave up 163 yards on 5.4 YPC last week vs Indy. The Bills found a way to win that game but they were outgained on the ground and through the air in that one. Buffalo is a poor running team already and lost their top RB Moss to an injury last week. Baltimore has a fairly large edge overall defensively ranking in the top 10 in many key categories. They have the highest blitz rate in the NFL and we think Buffalo QB Allen will make some mistakes because of that pressure. Last week the Ravens held the Titans (6th ranked offense in the NFL) to just 209 total yards. Baltimore head coach Harbaugh is a great road playoff coach has he now owns the all time record for wins on the road in the post season with 8. He has a road warrior type team as the Ravens are 15-3 SU their last 18 road games and 13-4 ATS their last 17 road playoff games. Not only that, Baltimore QB Jackson has started 39 games in his career and only lost 3 of those by more than 6 points so when they do lose, it’s close. Baltimore led the NFL in point differential for the 2nd straight year and we feel they are undervalued. With very little to no home field advantage and the way the Ravens perform on the road, we’ll take the points here. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 75 | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
#499/500 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 75 Points – Ohio State vs Alabama, Monday at 8 PM ET - This is the highest total ever set in a National Championship game and we think it’s too high. The previous high total set by the oddsmakers in this game was back in 2014/15 season when Ohio State faced Oregon with the number set at 72. The two teams combined to score 62 points staying under by 10 full points. The average total scored in the 6 FBS National Championship games is 64.8 points. We understand why this total is set so high because the public likes to bet overs and focus on offenses. These are two of the best offenses in the country. However keep in mind the defenses in these games will be among the best each offense has seen this year as well. Last week was the first time in their last 8 games that Bama faced a defense ranked inside the top 47. Notre Dame was ranked 21st in total defense and held the Tide to 31 points on 437 total yards both well below their averages. Prior to last week’s game vs Clemson, the Buckeyes had faced 2 top 30 defenses this season and scored 22 & 38 points in those games for an average of 30 PPG. That’s not getting it done here with the total set as high as it is. OSU played the perfect game on offense last year. One Big 10 coach said he’d never seen QB Fields play a better game in his career. Can he duplicate that vs Bama with injured ribs and Saban watching the film and having extra time to get ready? We don’t think so. Bama’s offense is great but we expect OSU to try and run the ball and keep them off the field here. Funny to say, but OSU has to slow this game down to have a decent shot to win. If they can do that, we think they can, it’s going to be very tough to hit this total. This is the highest total for BOTH of these teams this season. OSU has not had a total in the 70’s this year. Bama has had a few in the 70’s including their game vs Florida which was set at 74 and their game vs Ole Miss which was set at 74. Those numbers alone tell us we’re getting value on the under here as Florida’s offense is absolutely on par with OSU’s offense however the Buckeye defense is much better than the Gators. The Ole Miss offense is one of the tops in the country (3rd nationally) but their defense is atrocious. All it takes is one bad quarter or a few long, time eating drives in this game and the Under will be looking very good. Take the UNDER here. |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 48-37 | Loss | -111 | 74 h 3 m | Show |
#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -5.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers are a perennial playoff team having made the post-season in 8 of Mike Tomlin’s 14 years as head coach. They know what the playoffs are all about. That gives them a big advantage here over a Cleveland team that is in the post-season for the first time in 18 years. The playoffs are a different animal. That’s why inexperienced QB’s tend to struggle at this time of year. In fact, QB’s making their first playoff appearance (Mayfield) are 14-36 ATS. It’s just really tough to prepare for something you don’t know or you’ve never been a part of. These two met last week in Cleveland and the Browns were in a must win and still barely won the game 24-22. That was with Pittsburgh sitting QB Roethlisberger and a number of other starters including most of their key defensive players. Pittsburgh STILL outgained Cleveland for the game and on a YPP basis with Mason Rudolph at QB. Their other meeting this year when both teams were at full strength, the Steelers won 38-7. Not only is Cleveland new to this experience, they’ve been dealing with plenty of distractions this week. Their facilities have been closed all week due to Covid. They’ve been preparing for this game virtually. On top of that their head coach Stefanski, who’s led their resurgent offense, won’t be at this game due to Covid. A number of players are potentially out as well for the same reason. A less than ideal situation leading into a playoff game to say least. Cleveland’s offense doesn’t match up well in this game. The Steelers have the #1 defense in the league when it comes to pressuring the QB. Mayfield stinks when under pressure (43% completion rate). Pitt sacked him 8 times in the 2 meeting and in the game @ Pittsburgh they held Mayfield to his lowest QBR of the season. The Browns are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential on the season and they have lost 17 straight here in Pittsburgh. We’ll lay it and say the Steelers win by double digits. |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 44.5 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
#145/146 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Tampa Bay @ Washington - Many will look at Tampa’s recent surge on offense a feel this team is peaking on that side of the ball. The Bucs have scored 26, 31, 44, and 47 points over the last month. However, those numbers were put up vs Atlanta (twice), Minnesota, and Detroit, three defenses ranked 27th or lower in total defense AND yards per play defense. Now they face a Washington defense that will be as good as they’ve seen this season (2nd in the NFL in total defense and YPP defense). It’s also a defense that can put serious pressure on opposing QB’s (4th in QB pressure rate) which is bad news for the immobile, aging Tom Brady. He completes just 43% of his passes when under pressure and ranks 31st in the NFL in QBR. We don’t expect Brady to light it up here. On the other side, Washington obviously really struggles on offense. They only average 20.9 PPG and some of their higher scoring efforts came when QB Alex Smith was healthy. Right now he’s not. His arm strength is down this season and with his bad calf he really struggles to move around. Last week vs a poor Philadelphia defense, without their top player (Fletcher Cox), in a must win game they only were able to score 20 on just 4.0 YPP. They’ve scored 20 or less in 6 straight games and we don’t think they get there in this one. They face one of the top defenses in the NFL as Tampa ranking 6th in both total and YPP defense. Washington has faced 3 top 10 defenses this year and they score a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s in those 3 games. We tend to look for UNDERS in the playoffs as everything gets ramped up a notch. In games played outdoors the UNDERS have really cashed nicely in the Wildcard round going 81-60-4 the last 145 games. Looks like cold weather in DC on Saturday night and we like this one to stay UNDER the total. |
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01-03-21 | Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
#127/128 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Seattle @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Seattle’s defense has kicked it into gear over the last 6 weeks holding their opponents to just 13.7 PPG during that stretch. The UNDER has now cashed 7 straight weeks for Seattle. Last week they held a very good LA Rams offense that ranks 7th in the NFL in total YPG, to just 9 points. They’ve run the ball much more often taking some of the pressure off of Russell Wilson’s shoulders. He’s only averaged 206 YPG passing over this last 6 outings. If you throw out their 40 point effort vs the Jets a week after NY blew a potential win on the last play of the game, Seattle is averaging just 21 PPG over their last 7. San Francisco’s offense has been handcuffed ever since losing Garoppolo at QB. They have scored 24 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Niners topped Arizona 20-12 last week with their defense holding the Cards to their lowest point total of the season and a full 2 TD’s below their season average. While Seattle’s defense has been red hot the Niner stop unit has been among the best in the NFL all season. They rank in the top 10 in YPG, YPP, YPC and yards per pass attempt allowed. Their defense ranks 6th in the NFL in DVOA (Football Outsiders) and the Seahawks are 16th in the same category after being near the bottom of the league for much of the early part of the season. These are 2 of the slower offenses in the NFL ranking 22nd and 24th seconds per play and they obviously know each other very well. Our projections have this one tabbed for the lower 40’s and with the current number at 46, we like the UNDER here. |
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01-03-21 | Raiders v. Broncos +3 | Top | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver +3 over Las Vegas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Raiders should be flat as a pancake here having been eliminated from the playoffs in excruciating fashion last weekend. They opted not to score a TD (took a knee at the 1 yard line) in order to run clock and kick what looked like the game winning FG vs Miami with just 18 seconds remaining. The Fins however moved the ball into FG range in one play (Fitzpatrick long pass + personal foul penalty) and kicked a FG to win as time expired. Devasting loss for Vegas and now they head on the road in a meaningless game. Denver has a poor home record (2-5 SU) but they’ve played a brutally tough home slate (KC, Buffalo, New Orleans, Miami, Tampa Bay, Tennessee). Their most recent game they were creamed by Buffalo who is playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. We expect them to play well here to atone for that poor performance. We were very impressed with the way the Broncos bounced back last week after that loss giving the Chargers all they could handle on the road. Denver lost 19-16 but outgained LA by 80 yards, had 7 more first downs, and topped them on the ground 133 to 89. If not for a number of dropped passes, including a few big plays and one that would have been a TD, the Broncos would have won the game. They are still playing hard and competing which is a good sign here as we don’t expect Vegas to do the same. The Raiders beat up on Denver earlier this year 37-12 but the score was a bit deceiving as the yardage was near even but the Broncs had 5 turnovers. Vegas is in a freefall. They were right square in the middle of playoff contention in mid November but have now lost 5 of their last 6 and been outgained and outrushed in 5 of those 6. Their offensive line is really banged up (starting all pro OT Brown is out) and RB Jacobs is hurting as well (only 13 carries vs Miami). Denver has a big edge defensively ranking 14th DVOA on Football Outsiders with Vegas ranking 28th. The leaky Raider defense has given up an average of 34 PPG over their last 6. Denver was +6 at home vs Buffalo, +7 vs KC, +3.5 vs Tennessee, +6 vs Tampa, and +4 vs Miami, all playoff teams. Now they are in the same range (+3 but dropping to +2.5) vs a non-playoff Raider team that very well might have packed it in for the season. Take Denver here. |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
#496 ASA PLAY ON Iowa State -3.5 over Oregon, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Big 12 has shown themselves very well thus far with Oklahoma rolling over Florida, Oklahoma State topping Miami, and Texas crushing Colorado (WVU won as well). The Pac 12 has had just one game and that was the blowout we just mentioned. The Buffs were a near perfect 4-1 in Pac 12 play this year and they took on a depleted Texas team, with a number of starters opted out, in the Alamo Bowl and lost 55-23. Iowa State played those teams (Texas & Oklahoma) to the wire this year beating OU by 7 and Texas by 3 in the regular season and then losing to OU by 6 in the Big 12 Championship game. Their only other Big 12 loss this season was by a FG to Oklahoma State. Thus, there 2 conference losses came against bowl teams who both won their bowl games (OU in blowout fashion) by a combined 9 points (they did lose to another bowl team UL Lafayette in the season opener way back in early Sept). Their 8 Big 12 wins came by an average of +18.3 PPG. They are rolling on both sides of the ball right now. On offense the Cyclones have put up at least 435 yards of total offense in 5 of their last 6 games. They actually outgained Oklahoma in their Conference Championship loss but had 3 turnovers. They have also averaged 37 PPG during that stretch. On defense they’ve held their last 6 opponents to an average of just 17.6 PPG. While ISU was obviously disappointed to lose in the Big 12 Championship game, we’re hearing they are thrilled to be playing in the Fiesta Bowl, which is the most prestigious bowl this program has ever played in. Oregon was supposed to be the top team in the weak Pac 12 this year but that wasn’t the case. They did beat USC in the Pac 12 Championship game but the Ducks weren’t even supposed to be in that game. They backed in when Washington, the Pac 12 North Champs, weren’t able to field enough players due to a covid outbreak. Even though they beat the Trojans to win the conference, Oregon was outgained by 115 yards in that game and scored their first 2 TD’s on drives of 9 and 32 yards following USC turnovers. Two of their other three wins were vs teams that finished the season below .500. Their 2 losses were vs Oregon State (finished with a 2-5 record) and California (finished with a 1-4 record). Oregon played a weak schedule and their season stats weren’t overly impressive with a +20 YPG differential. Compare that to Iowa State, who played a much tougher schedule, and had a YPG differential of +97. ISU is better in the trenches running the ball for 192 YPG while allowing only 105 on the ground. The Cyclones are also better at the key position on the field, quarterback. ISU QB Purdy is finishing up his 3rd year as the starter and has thrown for nearly 9,000 yards and 61 TD’s. Oregon starter Shough is fairly inexperienced as this is his first year as a starter and he’s not a great passer. We also like the coaching match up here as ISU’s Campbell is FAR superior to the Ducks Cristobal. We like Iowa State to win this game by double digits. |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Georgia OVER 51 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
#327/328 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51 Points – Cincinnati vs Georgia, Friday at 12 PM ET - This total has crept up from 49.5 to 51 points and we still think it’s much too low. The Georgia offense has been rolling since switching QB’s to former USC starter JT Daniels. Since taking the reigns on November 21st, the UGA offense led by Daniels, has scored 31, 45, and 49 points. They’ve also averaged 500 YPG of total offense in those 3 games after averaging 382 YPG prior to making the switch at QB. Cincinnati’s defense 13th nationally but that number is drastically inflated in our opinion. The AAC has a few good offenses but the conference definitely isn’t great on that side of the ball. The best offense they faced this year was UCF who put up 33 points. Of the other 8 offenses they faced, one was an FCS opponent, 2 others ranked in the top 41 and the rest were all ranked 57th over lower. In the AAC Championship game they allowed 24 points to a Tulsa team that is ranked 57th in total offense. On the other side of the ball, Cincy is very good ranking in the top 20 nationally in total offense, rush offense, and scoring. The scored at least 36 points in 6 of their 9 games this season. Now they did face some poor defenses, we realize that, however the best defense they faced was Tulsa, one of the better defenses in the country, and they scored 27 in that game and it should have been much more. The Bearcats put up 420 yards in that game and they missed a short FG and were shutout on downs at the Tulsa 5 yard line. They are very balanced offensively and have an experienced dual threat QB Ritter who is a 3 year starter. UGA’s defense also has very good numbers but they were the beneficiary of facing perhaps the easiest offensive schedule in the SEC. The Bulldogs faced just TWO offenses this season ranked inside the top 60 (Florida & Bama) and those teams put up 44 and 41 points respectively. Half of their SEC opponents (4) were ranked 96th or lower in total offense. Cincinnati will be the 3rd best offense this UGA defense has faced this season behind only Alabama and Florida. The Bearcats average just under 40 PPG (39.3) and Georgia averages 33 PPG despite their slow start. Both of these teams have the ability to get to 30 in this game but we don’t even need that to happen. If both reach at least 25 points this is going OVER. This game will have no weather situation as it’s being played in Mercedes Benz domed stadium in Atlanta so a fast track and perfect conditions for the offense. The projected score with UGA a 7-point favorite is 29-22. We like both teams to top their projected point total so we take the OVER in this game. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -9 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -9 over Ball State, Thursday at 2:00 PM ET - This SJSU team has flown under the radar the entire season. They are a perfect 7-0 and are seeking their first undefeated season since 1939. Just two seasons ago this team was 1-11. They are HIGHLY motivated to close out with an undefeated season and we expect to see the Spartans at their best on Thursday. If they are at their best, this team is much better than Ball State. All 7 of SJSU’s wins this year have come by double digits including a 14 point win over a very good Boise State team in the MWC Championship game. The Spartans outgained the Broncos by 240 yards in that game! For the season they outgained their opponents by more than 100 YPG and by a full 2 yards per play (6.9 YPP offense & 4.9 YPP defense) in the much tougher MWC (compared to the MAC). QB Starkel, who played at both Arkansas & Texas A&M, was a grad transfer who led this offense with over 300 YPG passing. The Spartans have one of the most potent passing attacks in the country which is bad news for a Ball State defense that allowed 296 YPG through the air (119th nationally). The 2 best pass offenses the Cardinals faced this season were Western Michigan & Toledo and those 2 teams put up 275 yards passing & 2 TD’s and 407 yards passing & 3 TD’s in those 2 games respectively. Ball State, on the other hand, relies heavily on their running game (45 carries per game but only 3.9 YPC) and they are facing an SJSU defense that gives up only 3.3 YPC. The 2 best rushing attacks they faced this season were Air Force (2nd nationally) & San Diego State (32nd nationally). They held the Falcons to 206 yards rushing (100 yards below their average) and the Aztecs to 101 yards rushing (99 yards below their average). Ball State ranks 53rd nationally running the ball and they’ll be without, by far, their best RB here (Caleb Huntley) who opted out after rushing for just under 3,000 yards in his career. This Spartan defense did not allow more than 24 points in a game this season and we like them to really slow down this Ball State attack. The Cards already won their “Super Bowl” so to speak by beating Buffalo in the MAC Championship game despite getting outgained 7.0 YPP to 5.5 YPP. Ball State was outgained 6.1 YPP to 5.8 YPP on the season despite playing an easier schedule than San Jose who was +2.0 YPP as we mentioned above. The MAC has been historically bad in bowl games with an 18-35-2 ATS record their last 55 as bowl underdogs. Ball State is also historically bad in bowl games going 0-7 SU lifetime with 5 of those 7 losses coming by at least 9 points. This game is being played out west in Arizona which is a definite positive for San Jose State. The Cardinal players are just happy to get away from the cold and snow in this vacation type game. We’ll lay the points with San Jose State as we expect the Spartans to roll in this game. |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin v. Wake Forest UNDER 52 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 52 Points – Wake Forest vs Wisconsin, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - Wake has played a grand total of ONE game since November 14th. Their most recent game was a 45-21 loss @ Louisville back on Dec 12 and HC Dave Clawson mentioned after the game his team was simply not in game shape after the long break in their schedule. Their up tempo offense, which averages 80 plays per game (8th nationally), only put up 351 yards on 72 plays in that game (4.8 YPP). His offense will have big problems again in this game as they’ve had another 2+ week break and if they weren’t in game shape vs Louisville they surely won’t be here either. On top of that, they are facing a Wisconsin defense that ranks #1 nationally in total defense allowing only 263 YPG. The Badger defense has given up a total of only 94 points in 6 games this season. The only decent defense WF faced this season was Clemson and they put up just 13 points in that game. The other 7 defenses the Demon Deacons faced had an average total defense ranking of just 68th and the highest ranked stop unit they faced besides Clemson was Louisville who closed the season ranked 41st. They’ll have problems scoring points in this game. Don’t expect the Badger offense to light up the scoreboard here either. They scored only 4 TD’s in their final 4 games of the season. You might argue that WF has a poor defense so Wisconsin should get back on track but we’re not buying it. They just played a Minnesota team that was among the worst defenses in the nation in YPP allowed and the WORST in YPC allowed and Wisconsin was able to score only 17 points in regulation. QB Mertz has really struggled with his confidence and it looks as though both of this starting WR’s, Pryor & Davis, will most likely sit here once again. With Wisconsin favored by 7 and a total of 52, the projected final score for this game is in the range of 30-23 or 29-22. Wisconsin is only averaging 10 PPG their last 4. No way they get to 30 in this game. And with Wake facing a top notch defense for the first time since early September, we don’t think they’ll top 20 points. Take the UNDER. |
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12-29-20 | Colorado +8.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-55 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
#297 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado +8.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - We know Colorado is thrilled to be in the Alamo Bowl. We’re not so sure Texas can say the same. Once again the Longhorns had much higher aspirations and fell short of their goals with a 6-3 record. They blew out a poor KSU team to end the season and might be taking this one lightly or have little interest at all. The Horns have had a number of opt outs for this game including top WR Eagles, starting LT Cosmi, starting C Kerstetter, starting DE Ossai, starting DT Graham, and starting safeties Sterns & Brown. That doesn’t sound like a team that cares all that much about this game. There is still talk about whether HC Herman is the right man for the program after underachieving during his tenure and he now has former players chiming in on his lack of coaching acumen. Just not a great overall situation to close out the season for Texas. The Buffs were a surprise this year under new head coach Dorrell. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and by all indications the players love their new head coach. They won 2 games outright as an underdog and Dorrell has been fantastic as an underdog covering 12 of his last 13 when getting points dating back to his HC days at UCLA. Their only loss this season was vs Utah in their season finale, a game Colorado actually led 21-10 in the 3rd quarter. They outgained and outrushed 4 of their 5 opponents this season. Their offense should thrive here vs a Texas defense that allowed 410 YPG and is without many of their top players as mentioned above. Even in their blowout win over KSU to close out the season, the Horns gave up 448 total yards to a Wildcat offense that ranks 106th in total offense. We’re confident that CU will stay in this game throughout and we’re getting more than a TD as a cushion. Take the points. |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers OVER 54 | Top | 14-40 | Push | 0 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
#479/480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54 Points – Tennessee @ Green Bay, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Needless to say we don’t see many stops in this game. Green Bay QB Rodgers should have a field day. He’s facing a Titan defense that is the WORST in the league at pressuring the QB ranking last in sack percentage and last in sacks per game. The Tennessee defense has faced 580 drop backs this season and they have only 14 sacks. That 2.4% sack rate is brutally bad. Their pass defense stinks as well ranking 29th in the NFL in passing YPG allowed. The Titan defense has faced just 3 QB’s this year ranked in the top 10 in QBR and they are still one of the worst pass defenses in the league. In those 3 games vs top notch QB’s they’ve allowed nearly a 70% completion rate and an average of 3 TD passes per game. Rodgers is the best QB they’ve faced and this won’t be pretty. On the other side of the ball, we see a similar situation for the Packer defense. They’ve struggled stopping the run and with Derrick Henry and company ranking 2nd in the NFL in rushing, Tennessee will move the ball on the ground. That opens up the play action for Tannehill and GB’s defense will be on their heels for much of the game here. The Packers have faced 4 teams this season that rank in the top 10 in rushing and they allowed an average of 138 YPG on the ground in those games. The Titans have scored more points than any other team in the NFL this season and Green Bay has scored the 3rd most points. GB has scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 14 games while Tennessee has done the same in 9 of their 14. Both offenses are very efficient as well ranking in the top 5 in yards per point. Not only are both offense at the top of their game, they match up very well vs the opposing defenses as we touched on. Both teams get into the 30’s here and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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12-27-20 | Rams +1 v. Seahawks | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
#475 ASA PLAY ON 10* LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking for good teams coming off bad losses and we couldn’t ask for a better spot than taking the Rams a week after losing to the Jets as a 17 point favorite. Over the last decade, there have been 10 teams that were favored by -13 or more, were above .500 at the time, and lost. Those teams bounced back to cover at an 80% rate the following week (8 of 10 covered). The Rams match up very well with the Seahawks beating them 5 of the last 6 meetings with their only loss during that stretch coming by 1 point. Seattle already has a spot in the playoffs locked up while the Rams do not. The winner of this game has the inside track to the NFC West title and we’ll take the team that’s better on both sides of the ball. LA has a huge edge defensively as they rate as the top defense in the NFL (total defense & YPP defense) and also rank as the #4 DVOA defense on Football Outsiders. Seattle ranks 25th in total defense and 20th in DVOA defense. There has been some chatter about Seattle’s defense improving over the last month which it has if you look at straight numbers. However, their last 4 opponents have been Eagles, Giants, Jets, and Redskins and all 4 of those teams rank 22nd or lower in total offense with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 31st, and 32nd. The fact is Seattle struggled in 3 of those 4 games vs inferior opponents going to the wire in their tight wins over the Eagles and Redskins and in their home loss to the Giants. Their games vs the Giants and Redskins came vs back up QB’s McCoy and Haskins as well. The Rams & Seahawks have played nearly identical schedules being the same division and LA is +97 YPG on the season while Seattle is -6 YPG. LA has been an underdog 3 times and won 2 of those games outright with their lone loss in that spot coming by 3 points @ Buffalo. In their last 3 road games the Rams have outgained the Cardinals by 231 yards, outgained Tampa by 162 yards, and outgained Miami by 326 yards. We’ll take the better team in a must win spot here. |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders OVER 48 | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – Miami @ Las Vegas, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET - With this total set at 47.5 or 48 points, it’s the lowest total set on a Vegas game since November 1st when they had a total of 48 set @ Cleveland in gale warning winds. The Raider defense has been terrible this year especially as of late. For the season they rank 24th or lower in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and PPG allowed (30 PPG). Over their last 5 games Las Vegas is allowing 36 PPG. The Miami offense doesn’t have great numbers, but they’ve been much better over the last month or so. Since Tagovailoa took over as the starter, his first 4 games the Fins averaged only 240 YPG of total offense and his last 3 they have averaged 386 total YPG. They rushed for 250 yards last week vs New England and we expect Miami to have their best offensive output since Tua took over vs the leaky Raider defense. The Miami scoring defense has great numbers. They are #1 in the NFL allowing 18.4 PPG however their overall numbers come nowhere close to matching up with those scoring numbers. They rank 18th in total defense, 22nd in YPP defense, 24th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 26th in yards per rush allowed. Those are NOT the overall numbers of a team that is allowing 18.4 PPG. They’ve been very lucky in that regard. Miami has played the Jets, Broncos, Bengals, and Patriots (all ranked 27th or lower in scoring) 4 of their last 5 games holding 3 of those 4 to 12 points or less which has really helped their overall numbers. Against some of the better offenses they’ve faced this year, Miami has given up 33 (KC), 31 (Buffalo), 31 (Seattle), and 31 (Arizona) points. The Raiders have scored at least 27 points in 6 of their last 7 games and it looks like they’ll get starting QB Carr back for this game. Don’t be surprised if they use both Carr and Mariota in different packages keeping the Miami defense off balance. These two have gone OVER the total each of the last 6 meetings and the Raiders are 7-0-1 to the OVER their last 8 games as a home underdog. OVER is the play. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State -3.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -3.5 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Conference USA has proven to be a dud on the bowls thus far. They are currently 0-4 getting outscored by a whopping 85 points in those 4 games. When the Sun Belt has faced off vs CUSA in the bowl games thus far, the Belt is 2-0 with Georgia Southern beating La Tech 38-3 & App State beating North Texas 56-28. That’s relevant because we have Georgia State (from the Sun Belt) facing Western Kentucky (from CUSA) in this game. Western Kentucky has one of the worst offenses in college football ranking 120th in total offense, 111th in passing offense, 99th in rushing offense, and 115th in scoring. There’s been some chatter about their offense coming to life in easy wins over Charlotte & FIU, who have a 2-9 combined record, but what looks like a scoring outburst from the Hilltoppers wasn’t so much as they scored 4 defensive TD’s in those 2 games combined. The fact is, this team has scored a grand total of 19 offensive TD’s in 11 games this year. That’s it. They are facing a Georgia State team that averaged 33 PPG on the season and WKY’s highest offensive output the entire season was just 24 points (minus defensive TD’s). While Western Kentucky’s defense has solid numbers on the year, this is a bad match up for them. The strength of their defense is on the back end as they defend the pass very well. Their rush defense allows 166 YPG and they are facing a GSU offense that loves to run (43 carries per game for 190 yards). The Georgia State defensive numbers aren’t great but they really played well down the stretch allowing just 18 PPG over their last 3 games which included match ups with App State (GSU lost 17-13) and Georgia Southern (State won 30-24) who both won their bowl games already in blowout fashion. State is solid vs the run which matches up well with a WKY that likes to run (but isn’t great at it averaging 3.9 YPC) but it not a good passing team. Georgia State has already proven to be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt taking App State & Louisiana, the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the league, to the wire in tight losses and beating Georgia Southern. The only team they weren’t competitive with was Coastal Carolina who is ranked 12th in the country with an 11-0 record. As we mentioned the Sun Belt has walloped CUSA in their 2 meetings thus far and we have no reason to believe Georgia State can’t cover this small number on Saturday. |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 51.5 | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
#451/452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51.5 Points – Minnesota @ New Orleans, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - Both of these teams are coming off high scoring games last week and we like to look at the UNDER the following week in this situation if at all possible. We think this sets up nicely for the UNDER while most will look at last week’s results and lean heavily toward the over. When Minnesota clicks on offense, it’s because their running game is rolling. If that happens, it opens up QB Cousins to have a big game with the pressure squarely taken off his back. Last week the Vikings were able to put up 199 yards on the ground vs Chicago and their offense looked very good scoring 27 points. This week they face a Saints defense that only allows 95 YPG on the ground and ranks as the #2 rush defense DVOA on Football Outsiders. In games where Minnesota didn’t top 120 yards rushing, they averaged just 20 PPG which is nearly a full TD below their season average. The Saints were in a shootout last week but that was expected as they were playing the Chiefs. New Orleans lost the game 32-29 but those 29 points came in just 285 total yards of offense. Drew Brees was shaky at best in his return completing only 14 passes (less than 50% completion rate) and he still has problems pushing the ball deep down the field ranking 18th in yards per pass attempt. The New Orleans defense played very well actually despite giving up 32 points they held KC to only 4.5 YPP. The Chiefs were able to speed that game up into a fast paced affair that had 141 offensive plays run. KC ran a ridiculous 91 plays which is 25 above their season average. Thus why they were able to score 32 points on just 4.5 YPP. This one should come in at a much slower pace as New Orleans & Minnesota both are in the top 7 in rushing attempts per game (which slows the game down and speeds up the clock) and they each rank 20th or lower in pace. Prior to last week’s game vs KC the Saints had played in 7 straight games where the combined score was 46 or lower. We see this one playing out similar to last year’s playoff match up in New Orleans where the teams combined for 40 points in regulation (Vikings won 26-20 in OT) and the two combined for only 611 total yards. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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12-25-20 | Marshall v. Buffalo UNDER 55 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show |
#279/280 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 55 Points – Marshall vs Buffalo, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - Buffalo has been a high scoring team all season long. The problem is, they’ve faced a horrible set of defenses this year. The best defense they have faced this season ranks 55th in total defense. Their other 6 opponents all rank 75th or lower in total defense including 2 that rank 110th or lower. The Bulls also have the top rushing attack in the country averaging over 300 YPG. Same situation here. The rush defenses they’ve faced are flat out bad. Three of their opponents rank 121st or lower in rush defense and only one ranks higher than 47th. That is Miami OH who held Buffalo to over 100 yards below their rushing average. Now the Bulls face the best defense, by far, they’ve seen this season. Marshall ranks 3rd nationally in total defense and 2nd in rush defense which matches up perfectly vs this Buffalo offense. The Herd are allowing just 12 PPG this season (1st nationally) and only one team has topped 20 points on this defense. Buffalo will not run wild here. On the other side of the ball Marshall is dealing with some key defections on offense. Their top RB Knox (first team all conference) has opted out for this game. He is a huge part of their offense as he put up nearly 900 yards rushing in their 7 games this season. They run the ball an average of 39 times per game and Knox gets most of those carries. Their starting left tackle has also decided to sit this one out. Marshall was really struggling offensively anyway scoring only 13 points & 500 yards TOTAL in their last 2 games of the season vs Rice & UAB. There is a reason a team that averages 48 PPG on the season (Buffalo) & 30 PPG on the year (Marshall) has their total set at just 54 points. Looks way to easy to take the over here and digging deeper we absolutely the UNDER in this game. |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston OVER 59.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
#277/278 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59.5 Points – Houston vs Hawaii, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET - Houston’s defense isn’t great to begin with as they’ve allowed at least 30 points in all but 2 games this year and now they will be short handed. Their top tackler (LB) and top sack man have both opted out for this game. The 2 teams who did not reach 30 points on Houston this year were Navy, who ranks 121st nationally in scoring and USF who ranks 101st nationally in scoring. Everyone has had their way with this defense. Hawaii’s stop unit isn’t any better. They have allowed 30 or more in every game but 2 as well including a UNLV offense that ranks 117th in scoring offense. Both defenses rank outside the top 20 in total defense allowing more than 400 YPG. Both defenses are also terrible at slowing down or stopping explosive plays each ranking 93rd or lower in defending both pass and rush explosiveness. Both of these offenses will be able to move the ball and score points. Houston’s offense has topped 400 total yards in every game but one this season and that was vs Cincinnati who has a top 15 total defense. The Hawaii offense was a bit more up and down this season, however they were able to score at least 24 points in 6 of their 8 games. We feel they’ll look good here vs a depleted Houston defense that wasn’t good to begin with. Both teams can reach into the 30’s here and we’ll take the OVER. |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
#273 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia Southern -6 over Louisiana Tech, Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET - We can take quite a bit from Monday’s bowl match up between App State & North Texas and apply it to this game. App State dominated that game rushing for over 500 yards in a 56-28 win. What does that have to do with this game? Well Georgia Southern plays in Sun Belt along with App State and La Tech plays in CUSA along with North Texas. Southern faced App State on the road in the final game of the regular season and gave them all they could handle. They actually led in the 4th quarter and were outgained by only 32 yards. La Tech played North Texas on December 3rd and while they won by 11 points, the Bulldogs were outgained both on a YPP and YPG basis. That’s the same UNT team that App State outgained 11.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP on Monday. UNT ran 95 offensive snaps to just 56 for App State and STILL lost by 4 TD’s. Ga Southern runs a unique triple option scheme on offense that is tough to prepare for. The Eagles rank 7th nationally in rushing at 262 YPG. La Tech is not a strong run defense ranking 88th so GSU should control the line of scrimmage here. The Eagles starting QB Werts was out the last 2 games, including their down to the wire loss @ App State, but has been practicing a most likely will play here. Even if not, the starter will be senior Moseley who has plenty of experience in this offense. Speaking of offense, La Tech is a wreck on that side of the ball. They rank 113th nationally in total offense and they will be without their starting QB Anthony here who was lost to a season ending injury in their regular season finale. His back up Allen only attempted 97 passes this season and this team can’t run the ball (97 YPG rushing) which will put more pressure on the QB to make plays. Tech has a 5-4 record on the season but they were outgained on a YPP basis in every game this year (minus Houston Baptist). They average only 4.1 YPP in their 8 games vs FBS opponents and will struggle to keep up here. Georgia Southern wins the trenches on both sides of the ball here and a team that can do that normally comes out on top. Lay it with Georgia Southern. |
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12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada OVER 56.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
#270 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56.5 Points – Tulane vs Nevada, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - The Tulane offense improved greatly in the 2nd half of the season as freshman QB Pratt acclimated to the offense and the college game. He came on strong in the 2nd half of the season throwing for over 200 yards in 4 of his last 6 games after not topping 200 in his first 3 starts. The Green Wave has a very solid running game ranking 19th nationally at 219 rushing YPG and once Pratt started opening up the passing game as well, this offense took off. In the last 6 games they’ve scored at least 30 points in all but one game and that was vs Tulsa who has a top 25 total defense & scoring defense. Even with that, Tulane put up 24 in that game. We full expect them to get to 30 points here. Nevada’s defense ranks 46th nationally in total defense but they’ve played a very weak schedule of offenses including Utah State, UNLV, and San Diego State. On offense, Nevada matches up very well vs Tulane’s defense. The Wolfpack are one of the better passing teams in the country averaging 325 YPG through the air (9th nationally). Their senior QB Strong, who ranks 6th nationally in passing YPG and in the top 20 in passing efficiency, should have a field day vs a Nevada defense that ranks 85th nationally in pass defense. On top of that, Tulane’s all time sack leader and first team all conference DE Johnson will be out for this game only helping Nevada’s passing attack. With the weather looking good in Boise (temp in the upper 30s and winds 10 to 15 MPH) we expect both of these teams to get to 30 points. Take the OVER here. |
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12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State -21 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* App State -21 over North Texas, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - App State is the FAR superior team here and they are motivated. This is a senior laden squad that is looking for their 5th straight bowl win. The seniors have addressed the team wanting to make sure they go 4-0 in their careers in bowl games. Football Outsiders has App State is ranked as 28th best team and UNT 122nd (out of 130). Our numbers concur with that. App State is by far the best team North Texas has played this season. SMU is next best ranked 44th and they beat UNT by 30. The Mean Green also lost to the 95th ranked team (UTSA) by 32 and the 116th ranked team (Charlotte) by 28. North Texas had one of the better offenses in the country this year, however they played a horrible slate of defenses. App State will be by far the best defense they’ve faced this year. They will also be short handed as their #1 offensive weapon, WR Darden who accounted for nearly half of their receiving yards this season and scored 19 TD’s, tops in the nation. They will also be minus one of their 2 QB’s which is significant as they’ve rotated throughout the year and their missing QB, Aune, is their best passer. UNT horrible defensively especially vs the run (243 rushing YPG allowed) and App St a very good running team (243 rushing YPG). They give up 41 PPG on the season. They have allowed at least 40 points vs 6 of their 8 FBS opponents this season. They won’t stop App State in this game. With their offense not a full strength and facing the best defense they’ve seen, we don’t expect UNT to put up a ton of points here. While App State is going for their 6th straight bowl win, the Mean Green are 1-5 their last 6 bowl appearances and their most recent post-season appearance was a 52-13 loss in the 2018 New Mexico Bowl. This one has blowout potential. |
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12-20-20 | Jets v. Rams UNDER 44 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on UNDER 44 NY Jets @ LA Rams, 4:05PM ET - The Jets competed two weeks ago at home against the Raiders then rolled over last week against Seattle in a 3-40 loss. New York managed just 185 total yards of offense and 3-points against a Seattle defense that is one of the worst in the NFL. The Seahawks are giving up 25PPG and over 390YPG which ranks 27th in the NFL. The Jets managed just 3-points the week before the Raiders against an average Miami defense too. Today New York runs into one of the two or three best defenses in the NFL in the Rams. Los Angeles is 1st in yards allowed per game at 286, 1st in passing yards against, 3rd against the run and 3rd in points allowed per game at 19PPG. On average it takes opponents 15.1 yards to score a point which is the 10th best number in the NFL. The Jets offense is horrible even with Sam Darnold under center. It takes the Jets 19.2 yards to score a single point which is last in the NFL by a wide margin. NY’s average yards per play is just 4.7YPPL, again, last in the NFL. Yes, the Jets have given up points this season but despite gaudy offensive statistics (total yards, rushing and passing) the Rams only average 25PPG which is in the lower half of the NFL. The Jets are slightly above average in terms of pace while the Rams are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to tempo. Scoring has continually dropped this NFL season so a Total this low doesn’t scare us off, especially when the Jets could legitimately get shutout here. Bet Under! |
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12-20-20 | Patriots +1.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
#353 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England +1.5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Pats are off a 24-3 loss @ LA Rams and they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game as that was on a Thursday. Give Bill Belichick extra time to prepare his defense and you’re usually going to get a great scheme and effort. Give him extra time to prepare facing a rookie QB and then watch out. In his New England career, Belichick has faced 30 rookie QB’s. His record in those games is 25-5 SU. The last 11 times he’s faced a rookie QB for the very first time, he’s 11-0 SU in those games. This will be the first time he faces Miami QB Tagovailoa. Two weeks ago New England was in a similar spot as a small road dog vs everyone’s rookie of the year QB Herbert for the Chargers. What happened in that game? Patriots won 45-0 holding Herbert to 0 TD’s and under a 50% completion rate with 2 picks. Miami is coming off what looks like a close battle with KC last week as they lost 33-27 picking up the tight cover as 7-point underdogs. The truth is, they were down 30-10 entering the 4th quarter and they were outgained 7.3 YPP to 4.8 YPP. The 2 games prior to last week the Fins played the Jets & Bengals, the 2 worst teams in the NFL (Miami won both). Since Tagovailoa took over, the Dolphins are 4-2 in his starts but they’ve been lucky to get to that mark as they’ve been dominated statistically. In fact, if we throw out their game vs the Bengals (he didn’t start or play vs the Jets), in the other 5 games Miami has been outgained by 766 total yards. We expect the NE defense to have lots of success here. Offensively they should move the ball as well. This is a bad match up for the Miami defense. Their weakness is definitely stopping the run as they rank 21st in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 26th in YPC allowed. Facing a New England offense that runs the ball more than any other team with Newton at QB and ranks 5th in the NFL in rushing is not ideal for the Fins. They’ve faced only two other top 10 rushing team this year in the Cardinals & Rams. Arizona rushed for 178 yards on nearly 5 YPC and the Rams put up 131 yards rushing on 4.5 YPC. Lastly, road underdogs of 6 points or less this season in games expected to be low scoring (total set at 45 or less) are 15-1 ATS. We like New England to win this game. |
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12-19-20 | Panthers +8 v. Packers | Top | 16-24 | Push | 0 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina +8 over Green Bay, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET The Panthers are much better than their 4-9 record. For the season they are just -9 YPG and they actually outgain their opponents on a YPP basis (+0.1). Those are normally the numbers of a .500 type team. They have played a number of close games with 7 of their 9 losses coming by one score (8 points) which would get them a cover here at +8.5 or +9. The Panthers are cashing at a 70% rate as a dog this season (7-3 ATS) and we think they’ll keep this one within a TD. They get top WR Moore back in the line up and we love taking NFL dogs that can score points and Carolina can do that. They are averaging 26 PPG when Bridgewater starts at QB and they should be able to put up points vs this Green Bay defense that is OK, but not great by any means. The Packers have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games and the only offense that didn’t put up points over the last month vs this defense was Philly who has been a wreck on that side of the ball. Green Bay clinched the NFC North last week with a win over Detroit so while they are still fighting for the #1 seed, we wouldn’t be surprised if they weren’t at the top of their game here. Bridgewater is an amazing 18-2 ATS as an underdog in non-division games and we like him to get another cover on Saturday night. Since their road opener @ Tampa, the Panthers have covered 5 straight road games including a 3 point loss @ New Orleans and a 2-point loss @ KC, two of the top teams in the NFL. This one goes to the wire and we’ll take the points. |
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12-19-20 | Stanford v. UCLA UNDER 59 | Top | 48-47 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10*: Under 59 Stanford and UCLA, 7PM ET UCLA just faced USC last week and that game had a total set of 65 and USC is waaaayyyy better offensively than Stanford. The Trojans are top 25 in many offensive categories including yards per point and overall scoring (35.2PPG). Stanford can’t say the same as they rank 99th in yards per point offense, 65th in total yards per game and 84th in scoring at 25PPG. Both teams have better than average scoring defenses as both allow less than 29PPG on the season. Earlier this season Stanford played Colorado (similar to UCLA) and the two teams combined for 67 points in mid-November. Stanford scored 2 TD's in the final 8 minutes of that game and converted a pair of 2-point conversions or that could have very easily been 51 total points. In games against similar teams to Stanford the Bruins have played a few ugly low scoring games (Arizona State 43 total points, Arizona 37, Cal 44). Neither team has anything left to play for, so we don’t expect a shootout here. Stanford is one of the slower paced teams in all of college football and this will be the highest Total on a Cardinal game this season. Last year when these two teams met the O/U set by Vegas was 48.5 and they combined for 50-points. |
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12-19-20 | Illinois v. Penn State -15 | Top | 21-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
#214 ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State -15 over Illinois, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET Two teams definitely headed in opposite directions here. PSU has saved their season after starting 0-5 they have now rebounded to win 3 straight. Word out of Happy Valley is they are now having fun and excited to be playing and you can see it in their performance. Illinois, on the other hand, just got trounced by their in-state rival Northwestern and fired their coach this week. Now they have to go on the road and try to muster up the energy to play in a meaningless game with a lame duck interim coach. This is a very tough spot for the Illini. The Illinois defense is bad ranking dead last in the Big 10 in total defense, 13th in rush defense, and their pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 70% of their passes, the worst in the league. Last Saturday they allowed Northwestern to roll up 411 yards rushing. The Cats aren’t a great running team as they were averaging only 3.1 YPC entering last week. PSU’s offense has come alive during their 3 game winning streak averaging 30 PPG over those 3 and now they face the worst defense they’ve seen this year. The Nittany Lions are much better than their record. They were a top 10 team to start the season. They’ve outgained every team this year with the exception of Ohio State & Iowa. This team is 3-5 but they rank 2nd in the Big 10 in total offense and 4th in total defense. They can be vulnerable at times defending the pass, however Illinois is the worst passing team in the conference both on a YPG basis (180 YPG) and on a completion percentage basis (just 48%). On top of that, their best WR opted out this week and won’t play in this game. The records here are similar but there is really a pretty wide gap between these two. ON the season PSU has a +76 YPG differential and Illinois is -91 YPG. Just comparing these two alone, PSU is +51 YPG on offense and +116 YPG defensively. If Illinois gets down in this game, which we feel they will, we have a feeling this could get ugly. |
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12-18-20 | Oregon +3.5 v. USC | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon +3.5 over USC, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a classic underrated vs overrated spot in our opinion. Entering the season our research told us that Oregon was the best team in the Pac 12. We weren’t the only ones who shared that opinion as many other handicappers we respect felt the same way. Oregon lost 2 games along the way to their current 3-2 record. Both games were tight losses by 4 & 3 points and the Ducks had the ball late in the 4th quarter in each with a chance to win. What would this line be if Oregon had one both of those game which they certainly could have? In their most recent 21-17 loss @ Cal, the Ducks outgained the Bears by nearly 100 yards and had the ball in Cal territory in 3 of their last 4 possessions with a shot to win. Those possessions ended in 2 fumbles and a shut out on downs at the Bear 18 yard line. Speaking of fumbles, that has been a problem for the Ducks as they are -11 on the season, in just 5 games yet the STILL have a winning record. The Trojans are the exact opposite for us. They are very solid, but not as good as their 5-0 record. They’ve had to make 3 fourth quarter comebacks to get to their 5 wins. Last week vs arch rival UCLA, they trailed by 18 points made another late comeback scoring a TD with 16 seconds remaining in the game to win by 5. As long as Oregon doesn’t turn the ball over a bunch, we think USC’s luck runs out here. In fact, of the Ducks can keep this TO margin even, we have no doubt they’ll win this game. For the season the 3-2 Ducks are +47 YPG and +1.6 YPP. USC, vs a very similar schedule with 2 common opponents, is +35 YPG and only +0.1 YPP. Speaking of those common opponents this is where we see the value in this line with Oregon as a dog. They both played UCLA with Oregon favored by 18.5 in that game at home and USC favored by 3 at home. They both played Washington State with Oregon favored by 10.5 on the road and USC favored by 11 at home. Should Oregon actually be favored in this game. We wouldn’t disagree if that was the case. Take Oregon to win the Pac 12 Championship on Friday Night. |
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12-17-20 | Chargers +3 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Las Vegas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Vegas is absolutely heading in the wrong direction. They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games and their last 3 games have been downright atrocious. Three weeks ago they traveled to Atlanta to play a Falcons team that was 4-7 at the time. The Raiders were dominated 43-6. A week after that they trailed the winless Jets with just seconds remaining but connected on a hail mary to win by 3. The LV defense allowed a terrible Jet offense to average 6.3 YPP in that game. That’s a NY offense that ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.7 YPP on the season. Last week in a must win game at home, the Raiders were again dominated losing 44-27 to the Colts. The defense was again shredded for 7.7 YPP. Now that already poor defense will be without 4 starters on Thursday night. The Chargers have a poor record but at least they’ve been competitive which is more than we can say as of late for the Raiders. With the exception of their no show a few weeks ago vs New England, seven of their eight other losses have come by one score (8 points or less). They have some momentum coming off a home win vs the Falcons, the same team that walloped the Raiders 43-6 a few weeks ago as we mentioned above. Being in the same division these two have played a very similar schedule. Vs the schedule, the Chargers are +46 YPG on the season while Las Vegas is -15 YPG. In the first meeting in November, Las Vegas won 31-26 however they were -10 first downs and -120 total yards. LA looks like they’ll be the much healthier team here as WR’s Allen & Williams along with RB Ekeler all practiced this week despite being listed as questionable. The dog is 17-6 ATS in this AFC West rivalry and there is no way we’re laying points with the Raiders the way they are playing right now. Chargers are the side. |
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12-13-20 | Packers -8 v. Lions | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
#151 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -8 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not sure how Detroit stops the Packers in this game. Their defense ranks dead last in DVOA (Football Outsiders), 31st in scoring allowing 30 PPG, and 28th in YPP allowed. Their pass defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL (29th in yards per pass attempt allowed) and they put no pressure on the QB (27th in sack percentage). That’s a terrible recipe vs Aaron Rodgers and this red hot offense. The Packers have scored 31, 41, and 30 points their last 3 games vs solid defenses (Indy, Chicago, and Philly). What will they do this Sunday when they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL? If the first meeting is any indication, it will be ugly. The Packers put up 42 points in that game on nearly 500 total yards. Detroit’s defense has given up 71 points in just the last 2 weeks including 30 points to Chicago. Interim head coach Darrell Bevell led the Lions to a win last week at Chicago, but let’s face it there was some serious luck involved. They were down 30-20 with less than 3:00 minutes remaining in the game and Chicago had the ball and a 10 point lead. The conditions for offense in the dome will be perfect and Green Bay is averaging 37 PPG this season in the dome and many of those games are facing defenses a lot better than this Detroit team (New Orleans & Indy). GB is going to score a vast majority of their possessions and the Detroit offense is going to have to keep up. Matthew Stafford still has a bad throwing hand, his top RB Swift is most likely out again, and his top WR Golladay remains out. Detroit has a grand total of 1 home win this season and that was a 3 point win vs Washington on a last second field goal in a game the Lions were outgained by nearly 100 yards. Rodgers owns the NFC North with a 45-26 ATS record in his career. A win here locks up the division and we like the Packers to roll here. |
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12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-36 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
#159/160 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – Houston @ Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This total is set too low. We understand the season numbers for Chicago say bad offense, good defense. Those numbers have changed over the last few weeks. Trubisky is back at starting QB and like him or not, when he starts this year they are averaging 26 PPG. Since taking over for Foles a few weeks ago, the Bears have scored 25 vs the Packers and 30 vs Detroit. That success should continue here vs a bad Houston defense. The Texans rank 27th in defensive DVOA (Football Outsiders), 30th in total defense, and 24th in scoring defense. Last week they lost to Houston 26-20 combining for 46 points, however that was extremely deceiving. The score at halftime was 24-20 and they scored a grand total of 2 points in the 2nd half despite plenty of chances. The Houston offense played well averaging 6.4 YPP in that game vs one of the better defenses in the NFL. With this total set at 45.5 or 46, we look at Houston’s full season and see their games have reached at least 46 points in 10 of their 12 games this year and one of those was @ Cleveland in gale force winds (the other they totaled 44 points vs Jacksonville). They should have success vs a Chicago defense that is trending down. They’ve allowed 41 and 34 points the last 2 weeks vs GB and Detroit. Going back further, the Chicago defense has allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Weather can be a problem in Chicago this time of year, but not for this game. Temps in the mid 30’s and very light winds (5 MPH). With this game close to a pick-em a final score of 23-23 puts this at or over the number depending on your line. We think both teams top 23 points in this game. Take the OVER. |
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12-12-20 | Stanford v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
#124 ASA CFB TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Stanford, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - This is simply a terrible situation for Stanford. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and they haven’t even been home period since last Tuesday, Dec 1st. Santa Clara county announced that contact sports would be put on hold starting November 30th and lasting until at least December 21st. Because of that, the only way Stanford can play or practice was to leave the area. Last Tuesday they made their way to Seattle, stayed in a hotel, practiced where they could and then played Washington on Saturday. The Cardinal were able to pull together and pick up a huge upset beating the Huskies 31-26 as a 13 point underdog. That was just a week after they beat arch rival Cal 24-23. So now Stanford is off back to back huge wins and on the road again vs a team they probably will have trouble getting excited about, Oregon State. On top of that, Stanford traveled straight from Seattle to Corvallis, has been living in a hotel again this week preparing for this game and they are now a road favorite. Not ideal to say the least. OSU is underrated in our opinion. Two weeks ago they upset Oregon here 41-38 putting up 260 yards on the ground. Top RB Jefferson 226 yards. A week earlier they beat Cal here at home with Jefferson rushing for 196 yards vs a very good Golden Bear defense. After their big win over the Ducks, OSU traveled to Utah short handed missing a number of players due to covid including RB Jefferson. Starting QB Gebbia who was injured vs Oregon and is out for the season. Despite being shorthanded, they played a solid Utah team to the wire losing 30-24. Back up QB Nolan got his feet wet last week and played pretty well @ Utah throwing for 200 yards and rushing for 36. The Beavers get RB Jefferson back here along with some other key players who were out last week. They should be able to run the ball very well on this Stanford defense that ranks 100th nationally stopping the run. Bad spot for Stanford vs a undervalued OSU team. Take the points. |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45 Points – New England @ LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Most will look at the Patriots 45-0 win last week and think the offense lit it up. Not the case. In fact, the Pats had just 291 total yards in the game. They benefited from a punt return for a TD and a blocked punt return for a TD. Plus they were playing a bad Charger defense that has now allowed at least 27 points in 9 straight games. A week earlier they scored 20 points in a win over Arizona and had only 179 total yards. That’s 65 points the last 2 weeks despite averaging only 235 YPG. That can’t continue. Now they face one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Rams are in the top 5 in total defense and scoring defense and they rank #1 in the NFL allowing only 4.6 YPP. New England is in the bottom 10 in scoring averaging just 22 PPG. In the 5 games this year the Ram defense has played a team currently ranked in the bottom 10 in scoring, they’ve allowed an average of 13 PPG. Defensively, the Pats have been playing very well. The have allowed 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. We’re not talking about poor offenses either as the 3 teams they scored 17 or less were the Ravens, Cardinals, and Chargers. The Rams have played to the UNDER in 7 of their last 9 games and New England has gone UNDER in 4 straight. With the spread set a Rams -5, the projected score in this game is LA 25 – New England 20. We don’t think either team hits their projected score here and we like the UNDER. |
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12-07-20 | Bills +2 v. 49ers | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo +2 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - San Francisco has had plenty of distractions leading up to this game as they’ve had to move their entire operation to Phoenix where they will play the remainder of their “home” games. Making it worse, the Niners have already been on the road 4 of their last 5 games. This will be the 5th weekend they’ve been away from home since October 25th. We also like the line value here. Our power ratings have Arizona a few spots ahead of SF and Buffalo was +3 here vs the Cards just a few weeks ago. Now they are +2 vs SF on this neutral site. In that game vs the Cardinals on November 15th the Bills led 23-9 midway through the 3rd quarter. That was the infamous hail mary game as Arizona QB Murray threw a 43 yard TD pass to WR Hopkins with 2 second remaining in the game to pull out a miracle 32-30 come from behind win. Buffalo had this solid Arizona team beat on their home field. SF’s defense has some solid numbers this year but they have struggled with mobile QB’s which Buffalo’s Josh Allen definitely is. When facing Arizona (Kyler Murray), Seattle (Russell Wilson), New Orleans (Taysom Hill) and New England (Cam Newton) the Niners are just 1-3 with their only win coming vs the Patriots. San Fran is getting some extra love after pulling the upset vs the Rams in their most recent game. Let’s not forget prior to that upset, they had lost 3 in a row all by double digits. QB Mullens is not a bet on signal caller in our opinion as he is just 5-9 in his 14 NFL career starts. Seems like everyone is on the Niners here as we’ve flopped favorite as Buffalo opened as a 2.5 point favorite. We’ll gladly take the value and go against everybody here. |
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12-06-20 | Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47.5 | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
#467/468 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 47.5, NY Giants @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET - Seattle has changed their offensive philosophy over the last few weeks. Pete Carroll is trying to take some pressure off Russell Wilson and run the ball much more often. That’s what Carroll has always preferred anyway. Now that RB’s Carson & Hyde are both healthy, they’ve run the ball 30+ times each of the last 2 weeks after running it 30 times just twice in their first 8 games. The Seahawks have been successful running the ball as well with 241 yards on the ground the last 2 games. Seattle ranked #1 in drop back rate (almost 70%) over the first 10 weeks but the last 2 games they’ve ranked 15th and 20th in that category. Seattle has also been very deliberate on offense the last 2 weeks as they are dead last in pace over those 2 games. With running the ball more often and slowing down their pace, they are also trying to give their defense, who has faced more snaps than any other team in the NFL, a break. It’s working as the Seattle stop unit has allowed just 23, 21, and 17 points the last 3 weeks. They should have success here vs a NYG offense that ranks 30th in scoring at 19.5 PPG and will probably be without their QB as Daniel Jones who is dealing with a hamstring issue. Colt McCoy will most likely get the start for the Giants and he is more of a game manager than a big play QB. Even with Jones under center, NYG has topped 21 points just 1 time in their last 6 games. Defensively it’s another story for the Giants. They are solid. This is a top 10 defense (allowing 340 YPG) that over the last 6 games they’ve held their opponents to just 20 PPG. The Giants have gone UNDER the total 6 of the last 7 times they’ve been a road underdog and we expect another low scoring game here. |
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12-06-20 | Colts -3 v. Texans | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -3 over Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We love this spot for Indy. They are off a blowout home loss to Tennessee last week. The defense, which was short handed last Sunday, allowed Tennessee 6.6 YPP which is their worst performance of the season. Even with that, this Colt defense ranks 7th in the NFL in YPP allowed. They were without their top DL Buckner and their top DE Autry who lead the team in sacks. Both are back for this game and we expect an angry Indy defense that plays very well. Offensively they were also without their top RB Taylor last week and he is back on Sunday. Houston, on the other hand, has lost a number of key players this week. Their top WR Fuller and top DB Roby have both been suspended for using PED’s. The loss of Fuller is huge for this offense as he had become QB Watson’s favorite target with 22 catches for almost 400 yards over the last 4 games. They are now really thin at WR after cutting Kenny Stills last week and losing Randall Cobb to injury. That’s a big problem for a team that can’t run the ball (31st in the NFL averaging only 83 YPG on the ground). On the other side of the ball the Texans rank 30th in total defense and 30th in YPP defense. So that can’t run the ball, their defense has been poor, and they are now very inexperienced at WR. Not a winning combination. The Texans have won 3 of their last 4 but they’ve been outgained in each of those games. They have 4 wins this year vs Jacksonville (twice), Detroit, and New England who are all below .500 and have a combined record of 10-23. Indy is now sitting at 7-4 and 1-game behind Tennessee so a must win here. Indy’s offense has scored 30+ in 4 of their last 6 games and should put up plenty of points vs a bad Houston defense. The Colts are the better team and they are 7-0-1 ATS their last 8 trips to Houston. Lay the FG here. |
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -12.5 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -12.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line opened with Wisconsin -11 and that was before IU knew their starting QB Penix was out for the season. Once that was announced this line jumped to -14 and we don’t think it’s enough. Penix is worth much more than 3 points to this team. He was a huge reason their offense was able to top 30 points in 4 of their first 6 games. He led the Big 10 in passing yards and has accounted for 16 of IU’s 24 TD’s this season. The best 2 teams IU played this season were PSU which they beat on OT 36-35 despite getting outgained by almost 300 yards. Then their game @ OSU was on the way to being a blowout with the Buckeyes up 35-7 when Penix went wild and threw for almost 500 yards and 5 TD’s to bring the Hoosiers back in that game. Without Penix, we have no doubt they lose vs PSU (who now has only 1 win on the season) and they get destroyed by OSU. What makes him even more important to this offense is the fact that Indiana can’t run the ball. They put up good numbers on the ground last week vs Maryland, who ranks 116th in rush defense, but prior to that they were averaging 73 YPG on the ground. That puts huge pressure on the QB to make plays and Penix was up to the task. Now they start Jack Tuttle who has 16 career pass attempts. On top of that they face a Wisconsin defense that is outstanding. The Badgers rank #1 nationally in total defense, #3 in rush defense, and #3 in pass defense. IU will not be able to run the ball in this game. Tuttle will have to have the game of his life to keep the Hoosiers in this one. We don’t see that happening. Wisconsin is fresh for this one. They had last week’s game vs Minnesota cancelled. HC Chryst mentioned his team was able to heal up with the week off after their loss @ Northwestern. In that game Wisconsin lost 17-7 but their were +5 first downs, +103 total yards, +112 rushing yards, and +15 minute time of possession. Problem is they had 5 turnovers which is unlike a Wisconsin team. They also played that game with both starting WR’s out and they were down to playing a freshman and 2 senior walk ons. Because of that, QB Mertz was out of synch with his receivers from the beginning and tried to force a few things which led to turnovers. The Badger defense held Northwestern to just 3.4 YPP in that loss and the Cats rushed the ball 23 times for 24 yards. Again, IU will not have success on the ground in this game. With the Badgers coming off a disappointing loss, with extra time to prepare, getting healthy (WR Davis is the only question mark on offense), and facing a team with an inexperienced QB we love this situation. On top of that, while the Badgers are rested and healthy, this will be Indiana’s 7th straight week without a break. We don’t think Wisconsin will have to score much to cover this number. With the total set at 45.5, the projected score is right around 30-16. We think the Badger offense gets rolling here and scores at least that while we would not be at all surprised if Indiana scores less than 14 points. Wisconsin has won 10 straight in this series and we think they take another here by more than 2 TD’s. |
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12-03-20 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas -115 | Top | 42-31 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Texas Mean Green (-) vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Thursday at 6:00 PM ET: Game #324 |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 48.5 Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles, Monday 8:15 PM ET - We like the bargain number here as this game opened with a Total of 53 and slowly trickled down to the current number of 48.5. You know us, we love the extra value and will put ourselves on the same side as Vegas here. Much of the talk surrounding the Eagles has been the poor play of QB Carson Wentz. But it’s clearly not all his fault as he’s been sacked 40 times this season. He should be able to get rid of the football much quicker in this game against a Seahawks defense that ranks 30th in opposing QB’s completion percentage against them. Let’s also consider that Wentz has thrown 14 INT’s and fumbled 4 times so turnovers could lead to quick scores for the Seahawks. Seattle allows the most yards per game in the NFL this season at 435YPG but they also rack up 400 yards per game offensively which is good for 3rd overall. The Hawks give up an average of 29PPG (27th) but scored 32PPG which ranks 2nd. The lowest total posted on a Seattle game in the last eight weeks was 54.5 which is related to their high-powered offense and bad defense. Philly on the other hand is coming off a game in Cleveland where the total was 45.5, just a few points lower than this number, and the conditions were horrendous. Prior to that the Eagles had played three straight division games which tend to be lower scoring. Any way you cut it this shapes up to me higher scoring. |
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11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 56 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
#271/272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 56 Points – Kansas City @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - To hold Tampa’s offense in check, you need to have an elite pass rush. Brady is not great when under pressure but if he has time, he’ll pick you apart. Case in point, last week when the Bucs faced a top notch Rams pass rush, they were held to 251 total yards but still scored 24 points. A few week’s prior to that they faced New Orleans, who is top 5 in sack percentage, and the Bucs scored just 3 points. In their other meeting with the Saints they had 23 points. If we take away their games vs top 10 rush defenses (sack percentage) the Bucs are averaging 34.5 PPG. KC’s rush defense ranks 21st in the NFL. The TB has solid overall stats but much of that came early in the season. They have allowed 26 PPG over last 5 games and only 1 of those teams (Rams) ranked in the top 10 in total offense. Now they face a KC offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense, 2nd in YPP, and 1st in scoring. The Chiefs are rolling offensively scoring at least 33 points in 4 straight games. They’ve been held under 30 points only 3 times this season. Their defense is another story. They’ve been giving up points and yardage. The last 2 games alone, vs Panthers & Raiders, they’ve allowed 31 points in each and over 400 yards in each. They’ve allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 6 games and 2 of the games they did not they were facing the Jets & Broncos, two of the worst offenses in the NFL. Both of these teams like to play at a fast tempo with TB 10th and KC 14th in pace of play. Those numbers are actually deceiving as they should both be ranked higher in pace of play. They are ranked 3rd and 4th in first half pace of play and because they have gotten out to some big leads, they’ve slowed down in the 2nd half which affect their overall pace. We don’t see either team getting out to a big lead here. We look for a back and forth game in perfect weather in Tampa (80 degrees and light winds) and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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11-29-20 | Saints -6 v. Broncos | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -6 over Denver, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET - Looking at this number we can compare it to the Miami/Denver game last week and we see the value with the Saints. Last week a pretender the Miami Dolphins were just favored in Denver by 4 and now the Saints who might be the 2nd best team in the NFL are only -6.5. Last week we felt the Broncos would be able to run on a Dolphins defense that is not good against the rush and they did it with 189yds. But Denver won't run here against the #1 ranked rushing D in the NFL allowing just 74RYPG and that puts the pressure on QB Drew Lock - who 2 weeks ago threw 4 INTS. On the season Lock has 7 TD’s and 11 INT’s. New Orleans defense has 11 INT's this season tied for 4th most and could feast on Lock and the Broncos offense. In fact, the Saints produced 8 sacks last week vs. Atlanta and are 4th in the NFL at 3.2 sacks per game. Just how dominant was the Saints defense last week against the Falcons? New Orleans just held Atlanta to 14 first downs and 52 rushing yards. Saints QB Taysum Hill answered a lot of questions last week with his performance by going 18/23 passing with 233 yards NO INT’s. He’s also a duel threat under center with 51 yards rushing and 2 TD’s. Consider this, last week the Saints averaged 6.8 Yards Per Play a FULL YARD more than their season average with Drew Brees. The Saints also average 10 Yards per pass attempt against the Falcons which is significantly better than their season average of 7.4YPPA. Denver leans on a defense that is 9th in overall defensive efficiency but that typical advantage gets nullified here against a Saints offense that is clicking. The Saints have averaged 30PPG on: Tampa (2nd DEFF), San Francisco (10th DEFF) and Chicago (4th DEFF). Just looking at raw data, New Orleans has a huge advantage offensively with the 5th most efficient offense compared to Denver who is last. New Orleans has the 3rd best Margin of Victory this season at +7.3PPG / Denver loss margin -6.1PPG 28th in NFL. We like the Saints laying under a TD here. |
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11-28-20 | Rutgers v. Purdue -11 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
#194 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11 over Rutgers, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We love this situation for the Boilers. They have lost 2 straight vs Northwestern & Minnesota so this is a very important home game for them. Last week’s loss @ Minnesota was the infamous invisible offensive pass interference game. Purdue scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining that seemingly gave them the win. However, a terrible offensive pass interference was called taking away the TD and Purdue threw an interception on the next play in their 34-31 loss. That game was on Friday which gave them an extra day to get ready for this must win game. The Boilermakers outgained Minnesota by 100 yards in the game & had 8 more first downs in the loss. We really liked what we saw from QB Plummer as he threw for 367 yards and 3 TD’s. He was replacing O’Connell who was the starter (out with injury) however we don’t consider Plummer a back up. He started 7 games a year ago and was in a neck & neck battle with O’Connell for this year’s starting job. We expect another big game from him vs a leaky Rutgers pass defense that ranks 95th nationally allowing 265 YPG through the air. Another huge addition for Purdue last week was WR Moore who was back in the line up for the first time this year. He is their best offensive weapon and accounted for 136 total yards last week. Purdue’s offense will put plenty of points on the board here vs a Rutgers defense that has allowed 37 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Rutgers had a crushing home defeat last week. They faced a Michigan team that obviously is not nearly as good as they’ve been in the past, but they still have the name recognition so it was a huge game for Rutgers. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead, then went down 35-27 late in the game, had to score a TD + 2 point conversion with under 1:00 minute remaining to send the game to OT. On top of that, the Scarlet Knights then missed a FG in OT that would have given them the win and they wound up losing in 3 OT’s. Now they have to go on the road and we just don’t see them playing well here after last week’s situation. Plus, while they are improved, they still only have 1 win vs Michigan State (Sparty turned the ball over 7 times in that game) and they’ve been outgained in every game. Even with their improvement, this Rutgers team ranks 91st nationally in total offense and 92nd in total defense. This is a bad match up for them vs a Purdue team that is now at full strength on offense and is flying under the radar right now. Rutgers has been a terrible road team with a 2-19 SU record their last 21 away from home and 17 of those losses have come by double digits. We also like the line value here. We have Purdue as 14 point favorite in our power ratings. Last week Michigan was favored by this same number (-11) @ Rutgers and Purdue is better than Michigan this yet only laying -11 here. Take the Boilermakers as this game has blowout potential. |
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11-27-20 | Iowa State +1.5 v. Texas | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State Cyclones (+) over Texas Longhorns, Friday at 12:00 PM ET - Texas has covered 4 straight games in this series and the Longhorns are at home here and very little separates these teams in the rankings and yet the line is a pick'em! This is even though the last time these teams met in Austin (just two years ago), UT won the game by two touchdowns and won the yardage battle by nearly 200 yards. That was then, this is now, and the Cyclones are positioned well here. Iowa State has won 6 of their last 7 games and the only loss in that stretch was a tight 24-21 defeat. The Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas team playing for the first time in 3 weeks. A scheduled bye week for the Longhorns was followed by a postponement last week as UT's game versus Kansas was pushed back to the end of the season. A break is good but not when it is too much of a break. Remember that the Longhorns also did not have a game in mid-October either. That means this game, near the very end of November, was preceded by just 3 games for UT since the 11th of October! The Longhorns were a favorite in this game when the line first popped up and though the line is moving toward a pick'em, it is worth mentioning that the Horns have a strong tendency to not perform as well at home under coach Herman. In fact, the Longhorns have covered only 3 of their last 13 as a home favorite! Iowa State has plenty of confidence entering this game as they have exploded for an average of 45 points per game during their current 3-game winning streak. QB Brock Purdy and the Cyclones will take advantage of a Texas pass defense allowing over 300 passing yards per game in its last 4 games. Though the Horns run defense has been solid, Iowa State running back Breece Hall is leading the nation in rushing with nearly 1,200 yards on the ground plus he has run for 15 touchdowns already this season. Hall is a big reason the Cyclones offensive attack is so balanced and they will give the UT defense trouble in this one. As for the Iowa State defense, they have held their last 5 opponents to an average of only 297 yards per game. Texas has been the SU winner in 7 of the last 8 meetings in Austin but there is a reason the line on this game is set the way it is. Though Iowa State did win against the Longhorns last season, they certainly have been reminded of how their last visit to Austin played out. Per our computer math model, all signs point to the Cyclones getting some payback here for an ugly performance in their most recent visit to UT. This one is set up for a big road win and Iowa State is the play here. |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51 Points – Houston @ Detroit, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET Two poor defenses facing off on Thanksgiving and we like the OVER here. Houston ranks 31st in total defense while Detroit ranks 27th. They both rank low in overall defensive efficiency as well with Houston 29th and Detroit 25th (per Football Outsiders). Each team’s offensive strength is their passing game and that matches up very well with the defensive weakness on the other side of the ball. The Texans ranks 22nd in overall pass defense and 27th in defensive yards per pass attempt. Detroit ranks 25th in pass defense and 26th in defensive yards per pass attempt. We expect both offenses to move the ball very well in this game. Detroit was shut out at Carolina last week 20-0. We like that situation as we fully expect them to focus offensively after that embarrassing output. They were also missing a number of key weapons that look like they may return on Thursday including RB Swift, WR’s Golladay & Amendola, and TE Hockenson. Offense hadn’t been a problem for Detroit prior to last week. In fact, they’ve faced 4 teams ranked in the top 10 in total defense this year and they’ve scored 30, 29, 23, and 21 points in those games. Now they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL and we look for a big performance from the Lion’s offense. The Houston defense has allowed at least 28 points in 6 of their 10 games and they only time they allowed less than 20 was vs Jacksonville (terrible offense) and vs Cleveland with 35+ MPH winds in a 10-7 game. Houston’s offense has really started playing well as of late after a very tough early season schedule. If we throw out their game in gale force winds in Cleveland where nobody was going to score points, the Texans have averaged 28 PPG over their last 5. We know the conditions will be perfect in the Dome in Detroit. Those conditions and the fast track has led to some very high scoring games in Detroit this year. In fact, all of the Lion’s 4 home games have gone OVER and 10 of the last 11 games here have gone OVER. This year they’ve scored 64, 62, 57 and 50 points in their home games. The last 2 scores listed were vs Washington & Chicago who have very good defenses (both top 10) and terrible offenses (both bottom 5) and they still were high scoring games. The final projected score here is right around Houston 27 – Detroit 24 and we expect both teams to top those numbers. Take the OVER. |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -114 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 Points – LA Rams @ Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET- Two of the top defenses in the NFL facing off here and we grab the UNDER. The Bucs & Rams rank 2nd and 3rd in total defense, 1st & 2nd in YPP defense, 8th & 3rd in scoring defense, and 1st & 5th in rush defense. The offenses have had their moments but when facing top defenses, they’ve both been held in check for the most part. Tampa has played 3 top 10 defense (YPP defense) and they’ve scored 3, 19, and 23 points in those games. The Rams have scored more than 24 points only once in their last 6 games. They’ve faced 3 defenses ranked in the top 10 in total defense and scored 16, 24, and 30 in those games. Their 30 point output was vs Washington. So combining the two they’ve only topped 24 points only once in 6 games vs top tier defensive teams. The Rams rely heavily in the run ranking 8th in rushing yards and 5th in carries per game. They face the #1 rush defense in the NFL here as Tampa has allowed just 76 YPG on the ground on 3.3 YPC. Tampa hasn’t been a great running team this year (23rd in the NFL) and if they do try to establish a ground game, the Rams rank 5th in the NFL allowing just 96 YPG rushing. So the QB’s will play a big role here. The problem is, both defense are very good at pressuring the QB and neither QB is very good under pressure. These 2 defenses are 2nd and 4th in sacks per game and 4th and 5th in sack percentage. Brady has long been known as a poor passer under pressure because he can’t move. This year he is completing only 46% of his passes under pressure which ranks him 29th when we limit it to QB’s who’ve started at least 2 games this year. Goff is worse. He comes in at 38% which ranks him 38th when compared to all other QB’s who’ve started at least 2 games. We anticipate a grinder here with the 2 defenses being the best units on the field. Take the UNDER. |
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11-22-20 | Packers v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 51 Points – Green Bay @ Indianapolis, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Indy’s defense has some impressive overall numbers. They rank #1 in the NFL in total defense allowing 290 YPG. The problem is, we feel those defensive numbers are inflated because they’ve only played ONE team this year that is currently ranked in the top 10 in total offense. That was a Minnesota team that currently ranks 8th in total offense, however that game was way back on September 20th when Minnesota was still finding their footing. The Vikes are MUCH better now offensively than they were back then. Facing the Bears, Bengals, Jags, and Jets (4 teams ranked 22nd or lower in YPP offense) tends to pad your defensive numbers. On a similar note, the Colt’s pass defense has very good numbers but they’ve played just ONE QB ranked in the top 10 in QBR. On Sunday they face Aaron Rodgers who ranks #1 in the NFL in QBR this season. The Packers have scored at least 30 points in 6 of their 9 games this year and are off a subpar offensive effort vs Jacksonville last week (24 points in high winds) so we expect a very good performance on that side of the ball. They are fairly healthy as well with RB Jones getting back to full strength, WR Adams cleared to play and WR Lazard ready to go as well. The Indy offense is rolling right now as well scoring at least 30 in 3 of their last 4 games. They face a GB defense that has looked better the last 2 weeks holding Jacksonville (terrible offense) to 20 points and SF (without their QB or RB) to 17 points. Prior to that when they actually faced decent offenses they allowed 30+ points to TB, Minnesota, and New Orleans. Perfect playing conditions in the dome help to make this a high scoring affair. In their indoor games this year where weather was not a factor Indy is averaging 29 PPG. For GB they’ve played 3 dome games this season and scored 43, 37, and 35 points in those games. Take the OVER |
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11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars +10.5 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +10.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Talk about a ho-hum type game for the Steelers. They are coming off a division game vs the Bengals and they have a huge rematch on deck vs Baltimore. Not only do they play their arch rival Ravens next, it’s on Thanksgiving Day just 4 days away. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Pittsburgh was flat as a pancake in this game. Pittsburgh has a history of playing to the level of their competition. This year alone they went to the wire with the Broncos, Cowboys, and Texans. Just a few weeks ago they went to Dallas as a big favorite, got outgained, and never led until 2:00 minutes to go in the game (Pitt win 24-19). Speaking of playing to the level of competition, the Steelers are now 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they’ve been favored by 10 or more. Dating back to 1980, they are just 25-40 ATS as a double digit favorite (38%). Pitt is really struggling to run the ball as of late which we like to see if fading a big favorite. Over their last 3 games they’ve run for 48, 46, and 44 yards. That’s it. And 2 of those games came against Dallas & Cincinnati who rank 31st and 27th respectively defending the run. Despite their record Jacksonville is showing some fight. Last week they’ve gave a very good Green Bay team all they could handle at Lambeau in a 24-20 loss. The Jags, unlike the Steelers, have started to run the ball very well outrushing each of their last 3 opponents. During that stretch they rushed for 140, 115, and 109 yards vs Chargers, Texans, and Packers. New starting QB Luton has looked solid in his 2 starts taking both Houston and GB to the wire in tight losses (473 yards passing). Defensively they’ve also improved as of late. After allowing 30 or more points in 6 straight games, they’ve held Houston and Green Bay, 2 of the top 10 offenses on a YPP basis, to 27 & 24 points. Jacksonville is still putting forth solid effort. Pittsburgh is in a tough spot playing their fourth road game in five weeks. We like the Jags to hang around in this game and cover the big number. |
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11-21-20 | Liberty v. NC State OVER 64.5 | Top | 14-15 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
#359/360 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 64.5 Points – NC State vs Liberty, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - NC State is known to put up big points but they can't stop teams. That latter point is bad news for the Wolfpack as they now take on a red hot Liberty team that is 7-0 this season! The Flames are scoring 42.3 points per game on an average of 510 yards per contest! Liberty's offense is averaging 6.83 yards per play which ranks them in the top 20 teams in the nation this season for offensive efficiency out of more than 125 teams! NC State is allowing 456.5 yards per game and will struggle to stop an incredibly balanced Flames attack! Liberty is averaging 255 yards per game both rushing and passing! As for the Wolfback offense, they are averaging 38.8 points per game at home this season. Those 4 home games included facing two teams with winning records including a recent match-up with Miami (7-1 on the season). NC State scored 41 points against the Hurricanes! The Wolfpack are off an under (barely!) in their most recent game but that under was just their 2nd in 8 games this season! Additionally, the over is 6-1 in Liberty's 7 games this season! NC State is off of a game in which they surrendered only 22 points but that was against a Florida State team that has had major QB issues and is having a miserable season. Now the Wolfpack face Liberty QB Willis who has a TD-INT ratio of 15-1 plus has rushed for 700 yards this season too! That type of dual threat QB is going to give a bad defense like NC State's a lot of trouble. Taking a look at the Wolfpack offense again, they even slowed down last week because they had the game in hand (it was 28-3 in the 2nd quarter) but in this one a talented and confident Liberty team isn't going to wither away like the Seminoles did. That is why this one has the makings of a back and forth shootout as the Flames offense has helped lead the way to them becoming a ranked team this season! A lot of talent on that side of the ball for Liberty but now their defense will have its hands full with an equally talented NC State offense as both teams take advantage of beautiful weather conditions in this one too. The early forecast for Saturday night in Raleigh, NC is temperatures in the 50s with no precipitation and no wind either! Shootout in Raleigh! Per our computer math modeling, both teams are likely getting into upper-30's in this one and that means an easy OVER expected here! |
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11-21-20 | San Diego State -114 v. Nevada | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
#387 ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -115 over Nevada, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Most may look at this line and wonder why a 4-0 Nevada team is a home underdog in this game. We look at it and see line value with the road favorite. When these two met last year San Diego State was a 17 point favorite. Nevada pulled the huge upset in that game winning 17-13 despite getting outgained by nearly 100 yards. That loss has put a huge emphasis on this game for the Aztecs. Has Nevada improved that much where they go from a 17 point dog to just a 1.5 point dog? It may look that way with their 4-0 record but we don’t think so. The Wolfpack have played arguably the worst schedule in college football. Their last 3 games have come against UNLV, Utah State, and New Mexico, three teams we have power rated in the bottom 15 teams in the nation. Last week they barely squeaked by a New Mexico team that has won just 2 of their last 22 games. The yardage was basically even in that game yet the Lobos outrushed Nevada 141 to 52 in that 27-20 Wolfpack win. That simply emphasized Nevada’s struggles in the running game this year. Despite their easy schedule, they are averaging only 99 YPG on the ground. SDSU will have a HUGE advantage running the ball as they average 280 YPG rushing this season which is 4th nationally with Nebraska transfer Bell leading the way. The Nevada offense has solid numbers on the year but again, the last 3 defenses they’ve faced rank 122nd, 116th, and 107th nationally. San Diego State’s defense ranked 5th nationally last year and they are sitting at #3 in total defense so far this year. With Nevada unable to run the ball, they obviously put the ball in the air a lot. Their QB Strong averages 42 pass attempts per game. He may have a tough time in this game vs the Aztecs who rank 3rd nationally in pass defense this year. That includes holding a pass happy Hawaii team who ranks in the top 5 in passing yards this year to barely 200 yards in last week’s 34-10 SDSU win. The Aztecs have put massive pressure on opposing QB’s this year ranking 10th in the country in sack percentage and 11th in sacks per game. The Nevada offensive line is the weak point of this offense and they rank 107th in sacks allowed despite playing weak opponents. This will be, by far, the best defense and defensive front they’ve faced this season. Now we realize SDSU also played UNLV and Utah State this year but they’ve also faced a very solid San Jose State team and a decent Hawaii team. If we look at the 2 common opponents (UNLV & Utah St) the Aztecs outscored them 72-13 with a total yardage edge of +593 yards and a rushing edge of +511 yards. Nevada outscored those 2 opponents 71-28 with a total yardage edge of +481 and a rushing edge of just 33 yards. SDSU has simply been the much better program as of late with a 38-15 record over the last 4 years compared to Nevada’s 23-25 mark over the same period. We like the team that is stronger in the trenches, with the better defense, and the better running game to win this one. The motivated Aztecs get their revenge here. |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force -7 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Air Force Falcons (-) over New Mexico Lobos, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This line opened up at double digits and, as of Thursday afternoon, is down to a -7 on the Falcons. We like the line value here with a move that we fully understand here but absolutely disagree with. Part of the reason for the move is Rocky Long is the defensive coordinator for New Mexico and he has, in his pedigree, a history of stopping option teams. However, he doesn't have the personnel this season to do it. Three of the key components to properly stopping an option attack are game-planning, talent, and execution. Long can game-plan all he wants but he still has to have the proper personnel and disciplined players to go out and execute and this is a bad Lobos defense. So far this season they have not given up much on the ground but that's simply because teams know they can throw all over them. In other words it does not necessarily mean that New Mexico is built to stop the run, it just means that when a team is allowing 410.3 passing yards per game why not throw against them? That is the type of defense we're talking about here...a very bad one! The Lobos have lost all 3 of their games this season and each of the last two seasons they were beaten badly in their match-ups with Air Force. The Falcons won those games by an average margin of 20 points per game. Also, AF averaged 345.5 yards per game on the ground and 236 yards through the air. The Falcons enter this game off back to back losses but had over 400 yards rushing in their most recent game and that was against a tough Boise State team! Now Air Force enters well-rested as they have had some covid issues result in postponements in recent weeks. They will be ready to go here and just like in their season opener against Navy (we had the Falcons in that blowout win of 40-7) when everyone doubts Air Force they seem to be at their best. Look for them to take advantage of a Lobos offense likely to again be without QB Tevaka Tuioti (doubtful - concussion) and that means we likely again see Trae Hall under center. Hall has a 0-2 TD-INT ratio this season and has been sacked 4 times in just about 40 dropbacks to pass plus he has not had success running the ball. He also completes only about 50% of his passes. On the other side of the ball, again Long just doesn't have the guys to be a successful defense. This team lost nearly every starter from last year's defense and they are especially thin up front. New Mexico has been playing their games in, and practicing in, Vegas due to covid issues in New Mexico. Air Force has been at home and hungry to get back on the field after the Falcons lost at home against Boise State 3 weeks ago. The Falcons have extra rest while the Lobos are playing a 4th straight week and the AF ground game will eventually wear them down. The Falcons roll in this one. This one has the makings of a home blowout and we're laying the points with Air Force. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle -3 over Arizona - Value is on Seattle here. They are favored by 3 in this game which is the same number they were favored @ Arizona just a few weeks ago. Zona won that game 37-34 in OT but Seattle outgained the Cards and led by 10 with just 3:00 minutes remaining. Seahawks have lost 2 in a row which is why this number is low. Those losses were @ Buffalo (Seattle had 4 turnovers) and @ LA Rams who were coming off a bye. They are still undefeated at home this year. Arizona hasn’t been on the road since October 19th. They are coming off a 3 game home stand where all 3 went to the wire (Seattle, Miami, and Buffalo). Last week they pulled a miracle win over the Bills on a hail mary as time expired. Arizona is just 2-2 on the road despite playing one of the easier road slates in the NFL (Jets, Cowboys, Panthers, and Niners) who combined for a 9-29 overall record. Arizona’s defensive line is banged up with only 3 healthy players and Seattle gets RB Hyde back from injury here. The Seahawks rushed for 200 yards in the first meeting and they should have success on the ground here which opens things up for QB Wilson. Speaking of Wilson, he has NEVER lost 3 games in a row since coming to Seattle. We don’t think he will here. If he can limit turnovers tonight (Seattle had 3 in the first meeting) we like the home team to cover. |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan +1.5 | Top | 52-44 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Western Michigan Broncos, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #314 |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago +3.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - This line opened with the Bears favored by -1.5 and has swung a full 4 points to Minnesota -3.5. Too much in our opinion and the Vikings don’t justify laying more than 3 in this game. Sure the Vikes are 2-0 since their bye week beating Green Bay and Detroit, but they were +6 @ GB and just -3 at home vs Detroit. Now they are laying more than that @ Chicago? Bad line. Minnesota was able to run the ball at will vs those 2 defenses which rank 23rd and 24th in the NFL in YPC allowed. Now they face a top 10 rush defense with Chicago allowing just 4.1 YPC. Last week the Bears faced a Tennessee offense that ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing and held them to just 92 yards on the ground on 3.0 YPC. Derrick Henry had just 68 yards on 21 attempts. The Bears lost that game but actually outplayed the Titans on the road with a +11 first down edge and +147 total yardage edge. If Chicago can slow down Dalvin Cook that places the pressure on QB Cousins to win the game. We know how that goes as he is known for not stepping up in big moments and is 0-9 SU on Monday night football. The Vikings offense has looked good but they’ve played mainly average to poor defenses. In fact, 7 of their 8 opponents rank 19th or lower in YPP defense this season. The one top 10 defense they played this year was Indy and the Vikings scored only 11 points in that game. Chicago will be the best defense they’ve faced since that game which was back on September 20th. The Bears offense looked much better last week putting up 375 yards on Tennessee. Tonight they face a Minnesota defense that ranks a few spots below Tennessee when it comes to YPP defense (25th overall) and we expect Chicago to do enough on offense to have a great shot to win this game outright. The Bears are 4-0 SU vs the Vikings since Matt Nagy took over as HC and we give them a great shot at making that 5-0 tonight. If not, we expect a very close game and getting over a FG at home with the much better defense is our pick. Take the Bears. |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-32 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Buffalo picked up a huge home win last week over Seattle 44-34. However, the yardage was about dead even for the game but Seattle had 4 TO’s and Buffalo scored points after each one of those turnovers. Prior to last week, the Buffalo offense had not been playing well at all. In their previous 4 games they had scored 16, 17, 18 and 24 points. Their offense looked much better last week but they were playing the last ranked defense in the NFL (Seattle) along with the 4 TO’s which put the offense in a number of good field position situations. The Buffalo defense continued to struggle giving up 6.7 YPP. This defense is not even close to the same level as last year’s that allowed a full 1.0 YPP less. Big win and now on the road will be tough for Buffalo who hasn’t played on the road since beating the hapless Jets 18-10 on October 25. Arizona is playing their third straight home game and coming off a loss. They should have some extra motivation off that loss and the fact that they play 3 of their next 4 on the road. This is a big game for Arizona. Last week they lost 34-31 vs Miami despite outgaining the Fins by 130 yards and +1.3 YPP. The Cards come into this one ranking #1 in the NFL in total offense and #2 in rushing. That’s going to be a problem for a Buffalo defense that has struggled to stop the run this year allowing 125 YPG. Despite their records (Arizona is 5-3 / Buffalo is 7-2) the Cards own the better point differential (+54 to +9) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3). Arizona QB Murray has a big day vs the Buffalo defense and the Cards get the home cover. |
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11-14-20 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
#192 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON San Diego State Aztecs (-) over Hawaii Warriors, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - Situations don't get much better than this. The Aztecs just lost at home by a double digit margin even though they were a double digit favorite versus San Jose State! Undoubtedly, there will be extra focus from San Diego State this week at home after what happened right here last week. Not only that, after beating the Warriors 6 straight times both SU and ATS in MWC action, Hawaii has beaten the Aztecs each of the past two seasons including once as a huge underdog. So this is a double revenge spot for San Diego State and they are catching the Warriors at the perfect time to exact that revenge. Hawaii is off of a home win over New Mexico but they allowed 33 points to the Lobos and NM is not only one of the worst teams in the MAC but one of the worst in the nation for FBS programs! The Warriors now are on the road again - for the 3rd time in 4 weeks! - while the Aztecs are back home for a 2nd straight week. The scheduling edge and situational edge here both are huge factors. Additionally, Hawaii has allowed an average of 32 points per game their past two games and allowed 31.9 points per game last season. San Diego State allowed only 12.7 points per game last season and, before getting upset by the Spartans and allowing 28 points last week, the Aztecs allowed 7 points or less in EACH of their first two games. Huge defensive edge to the home team in this one including allowing just 233 yards per game this season while the Warriors are allowing 433 yards per game! The Aztecs also are outgaining Hawaii on the offensive side (452 to 429) and, per our computer math model, San Diego State pulls away as this one goes on. This one has all the right ingredients for a blowout home win and we're laying the points with San Diego State |
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11-14-20 | Miami-FL v. Virginia Tech -121 | Top | 25-24 | Loss | -121 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
#156 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech Money Line -121 over Miami, FL, Saturday at 12:00 Noon ET - With money line available as low as -120 range on this one that makes sense here rather than laying the -2 for those of you who have access to the money line. We really feel this Va Tech team is undervalued overall with a 4-3 record. Apparently the oddsmakers agree is the Hokies are favored in this game vs a Miami team that is ranked 9th in the country. With that the majority of tickets (70% plus) are coming in on Miami which is to be expected. Let’s bet the underdog that is ranked in the top 10. Seems easy. On top of that VT was upset at home last week by Liberty. Makes this even easier to side with the Canes right? There is a reason the Hokies are favored in this game. Offensively they are very tough to stop as they are the 4th best rushing team in the nation averaging 278 YPG (6.4 YPC) and they are in the top 20 in offensive efficiency at over 7.0 YPP. Starting QB Hooker returned to full strength 4 games ago and he provides a huge threat running the ball (6.3 YPC) as well as throwing (67% completion rate for 870 yards). They should be very successful vs a Miami defense that is allowing 148 YPG on the ground. Looking further into that, if you throw out the game the Canes had vs Pitt who is a terrible running team (112th nationally out of 123), Miami is allowing 187 YPG on the ground in their other 5 ACC contests. Now they face the best rushing attack they’ve seen this season. The Canes defense has also been shredded for over 400 total yards in all 3 road games they’ve played this season. We’re not sold on Miami. They are a good team but overrated in our opinion. Two of their last three games were played vs teams that did not have the starting QB available (NC State & Pitt). Last week they trailed NC State, without their starting QB, for most of the game including by 10 points in the 4th quarter. They scored on a 54 yard pass with just over 2:00 minutes remaining to pick up the 44-41 win. A week earlier they struggled at home with a 2-4 Virginia team coming out on top 19-14. The one good team they played this season, Clemson, blasted them 42-17 and outgained the Canes by 340 yards! We’re not saying VT is Clemson, but this is definitely the 2nd best team Miami has faced this season. VT’s defensive numbers aren’t great, but they do get to the QB very well (top 15 nationally in sacks per game). Miami’s offensive line hasn’t been very good this year and despite their mobile QB King, they are still 88th in sacks allowed per game. Their RB’s haven’t been very good averaging just 4.5 YPC and QB King is nearly their leading rusher (2nd leading rusher 2 yards behind RB Harris). If you can focus on King and slow him down, this Miami offense is in trouble. They rely too heavily on one guy. This is the 2nd of back to back games for Miami and they’ve been dealing with some Covid issues and had a few starters out last week including on the offensive line. Head coach Manny Diaz said it’s been so bad in recent practices they’ve had grad assistant coaches lining up at DB and kickers taking on the role of WR’s on the scout team. We love looking at unranked home teams favored over ranked road teams, especially teams in the top 10. Other things must obviously fall into place as well and we feel they have for this one. This season unranked home teams favored over ranked road teams are 58-40 ATS. Last year there were 2 games all season in which a team with at least 3 losses was favored at home vs a team with 0 or 1 loss and the home team won both of those games. We expect Virginia Tech to come out and play with a purpose after blowing their home game last week vs Liberty (were they looking ahead to this one?). The Hokies get the home win and cover. |
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11-13-20 | Iowa -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP 10* PLAY ON Iowa -3.5 over Minnesota, Friday at 7:00 PM ET Iowa picked up their first win of the season last Saturday but they are much better than a 1-2 team. They’ve actually outgained all 3 of their opponents and they are +1.1 YPP differential on the season which is very solid. They’ve led all 3 games in the 4th quarter as well. The Hawks finally put it all together last week in a dominating 49-7 win over Michigan State. The defense, which has played very well this season, held MSU to just 10 first downs and only 59 yards rushing (Iowa had 226 yards on the ground). That defense is getting 2 key players back this week including starting LB Campbell who will now split time at the position helping their depth. Minnesota’s defense played much better last week but we’re not falling for it. The first 2 games they were terrible allowing 94 points on more than 9.0 YPP. So why did they look so much better last week? They played an Illinois team that has had a number of key players out with Covid and their QB position is in disarray as they were down to their 4th string QB Taylor who only completed 6 passes the entire game. This defense still stinks and even with last week’s performance they are allowing 8.2 YPP which is the worst in college football. They have the same 1-2 record as Iowa but the Gophers YPP differential is -2.0 which is a full 3 yard difference PER PLAY when compared to Iowa’s YPP differential numbers which we discussed earlier. The Gophers leaned heavy on their running game last week with 325 yards vs a terrible Illinois defense but they won’t get that luxury this week facing a Hawkeye defense that is allowing just 2.6 YPC this season. On the flip side, Iowa ran the ball very well last week and should continue vs a Minnesota defense that allows 7.3 YPC. This should keep the Iowa offense very balanced in this game which is bad news for an already terrible Gopher defense. On the other side this will be the best defense that Minnesota has faced this season. They’ve faced 2 terrible stop units (Maryland & Illinois) and a Michigan defense that has proven to be not so good thus far. The defensive difference in this game is enormous so we’re siding with Iowa to win and cover on the road. |
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11-12-20 | Colts +2 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis +2 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Colts coming off a loss with Tennessee coming off a win. We also like the fact that Indy outplayed the Ravens last week on the stat sheet while the Titans actually were outplayed by the Bears. Indy went from a 4-point dog at last week’s open vs Baltimore to a 1-point favorite near game time. They outgained the Ravens by a full +1.0 YPP in the game but had 2 turnovers which led directly to 14 of Baltimore’s 24 points. The biggest play of the game came late in the first quarter with Indianapolis already up 7-0 moving inside Baltimore’s 40 yard line looking to go up 2 scores. The Colts fumbled and it was returned 65 yards for the Ravens first TD to tie the game at 7-7. A potential 14-point turnaround on that play alone. Tennessee was favored by 6.5 at home vs Chicago and picked up a 24-17 win. The Bears outgained Tennessee by +1.0 YPP in the game despite the loss. The Tennessee defense, which ranks 25th in total defense allowed the below average Bears to roll up 375 yards. That’s a Chicago offense that had topped 280 yards only once in their previous 5 games. And the Titans weren’t playing particularly well entering the game having lost to the Steelers & Bengals in their previous 2 games. Tennessee could be sitting on a 3 game losing streak but got a little lucky last week. The Colts are 3-1 on the road this year and they own the #1 ranked total defense in the NFL. So we have a motivated team, getting points, with the much better defense. The Colts have also owned this AFC South series covering 13 of the last 17 meetings. Indy is the play on Thursday night. |
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11-11-20 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois +8 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Northern Illinois Huskies (+) over Central Michigan Chippewas, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Central Michigan is off a tight win at home but they were helped by a pair of Ohio University turnovers. Also, the Bobcats simply aren't on the level with the Buffalo team that Northern Illinois had to face last week. In fact, heading into the season many had Buffalo pegged as the best team in the MAC this season. That said, even though the Huskies lost ugly on the scoreboard against the Bulls there are a couple of important factors to note. One is that it was a big-time revenge game for Buffalo. Another is that Northern Illinois was done in by turnovers in that game as too many fumbles were the difference in that one. In fact the Huskies actually outgained the Bulls and had 26 first downs compared to just 14 for Buffalo. Now Northern Illinois is in the 2nd of back to back home games and will certainly take better care of the ball in this one. Central Michigan is being over-valued as this line opened up at a 6 but has moved up past the -7 mark as of Tuesday evening. The Chippewas are getting too much respect here. Even if QB David Moore returned from his suspension for this one it would be his first live game action in a full year. If Central Michigan is again without Moore, most likely, it will be a redshirt freshman Daniel Richardson making his first ever road start at QB. This will be much tougher on Richardson in comparison with playing at home last week. The Huskies also have revenge on their minds here as they got blasted at Central Michigan last season. The last time the Chippewas visited Northern Illinois the Chips lost by a 24-16 margin. Per our computer math model this game has high probability that it will be a game decided by a single possession which means great value with the Huskies available in the +7.5 range for this one. This one has potential for a home dog upset and we're grabbing the points with Northern Illinois |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 51 | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – New Orleans @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These two met earlier this year and the total was set at 48.5 points. That final score was Bucs 43, Saints 34 so it went way over the total. Thus, this total is set nearly a full FG higher. The first final score between these 2 was quite misleading. Tampa had 310 total yards and New Orleans had only 271 and neither averaged 5.0 YPP. There were 9 scoring possessions in that game and 4 of them came on drives of less than 45 yards and TB scored on a pick 6. Last Sunday was the first top 10 defense the Saints have faced since their season opener vs TB and they scored just 23 points (in regulation) vs Chicago. The Bucs have also faced just 1 top 10 defense since playing the Saints and they scored just 19 points in that game. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in efficiency defense (Football Outsiders) and total defense. The Tampa defense ranks #1 in the NFL in efficiency (Football Outsiders) and they’ve held 6 of their 8 opponents to 23 points or less. The Saints defense is ranked 8th in the NFL in efficiency and they’ve held 5 of their 8 opponents to 27 points or less. New Orleans has gone over the total in 7 straight games which has helped push this total higher than it should be in our opinion. It’s projected to be rainy and windy on Sunday evening in Tampa which will help limit scoring opportunities. 9 of the last 12 meeting between these 2 NFC South rival @ Tampa have gone under the total. With Tampa favored by -4.5 here the projected final is TB 28 and NO 23. We think both teams land under those numbers. We like the UNDER on Sunday Night. |
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11-07-20 | Oklahoma State -12 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-18 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
#375 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -12 over Kansas State, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was OSU’s loss to Texas. In that 41-34 OT loss, OSU was +15 first downs, outgained the Longhorns 530 to 287 but had 4 turnovers (Texas had 0) which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense so the OSU defense, which is really good this year, held them 200 yards below their average. The Cowboys rank 14th nationally in total defense and they’ve held every opponent this year below their season average in YPG. The only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of them (slightly) is West Virginia and the Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. KSU will have all sorts of problems with this Oklahoma State defense as well. The Cats lost starting QB Thompson for the season a few weeks ago. His replacement Will Howard is a freshman with very little experience. Howard has now started 3 games and if you subtract KSU’s game vs Kansas who stinks, they have scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s with him under center. The Wildcats 4-2 record doesn’t look bad but the fact is they are getting outgained by almost 100 YPG and they’ve been outgained by every team they’ve faced this year with the exception of Kansas. That includes Arkansas State who upset KSU 35-31. The Cats do have a signature win over Oklahoma this year which might be keeping them overvalued but they were beaten badly in the stat sheet in that game as well with the exception of turnovers (Oklahoma had 4 / KSU had 0). They also trailed by 21 in that game but had senior QB Thompson in the line up to help with the comeback. The Cowboys offense has averaged 35 PPG over their last 3 games and they received a big boost when starting QB Sanders returned two weeks ago vs Iowa State. He has thrown for over 600 yards and 5 TD’s in his 2 games since returning. He and the OSU offense should have a field day vs a Kansas State defense that is allowing 437 YPG ranking them 78th in total defense out of 113. Last week they allowed WVU to roll up almost 500 yards and tally 37 points. We don’t think Kansas State will be able to keep up here. The Cowboys have rebounded well off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record off their last 8 defeats and they want to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss as they head into a bye week. Lay it as this has the makings of an easy win for Oklahoma State. |
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11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State OVER 47.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 47.5 Points – San Jose State @ San Diego State, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - Nick Starkel is the quarterback at San Jose State. Before "arriving" (literally!) with the Spartans, he started his career in the SEC - first with Texas A & M and then with Arkansas. Starkel has the background to play very well in the Mountain West and he is already doing it. Of course he goes from facing some easier competition in the first two games this season to facing a tough San Diego State defense but, the fact is, this is a solid Spartans offense that can put up plenty of points. Last season they had one of the top passing attacks in football with 338 yards per game and this is a team that averaged 30 points per game! The problem for San Jose State is they generally can't stop anyone. Don't be fooled by their first two games this season as they faced struggling offenses. San Diego State is averaging 347 rushing yards per game this season and has put up at least 34 points in each of their first two games. The Aztecs will run all over a Spartands rush defense that was one of the worst in the nation against the run last season as they allowed 232.1 yards per game on the ground. San Diego State has looked very strong on offense and has already scored more points in each of their first two games this season than they did in any of their regular season games last season! That helps key this over as does the fact that San Jose State looks even better than last year's offense. That being said, this match-up will see more points than last year's which ended up a 27-17 final. Per our computer math modeling, more scoring occurs compared to what many are expecting in this one and that means an OVER here! |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 49.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 49.5 Points – Green Bay @ San Francisco, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Green Bay will be without their top 3 RB’s for this game so we expect Aaron Rodgers to throw the ball a lot in this one. The Packers rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring and they’ve been held under 30 just twice all season. Last week vs Minnesota they only put up 22 points, however they put up 400 yards in that game but simply blew a number of chances. Their seasonal yards per point average is 12.6 which ranks them 6th in the NFL. If that is used to figure out what GB would normally score when gaining 400 yards it comes to 31 points. SF’s defense has solid overall numbers but they’ve faced 5 opponents ranked 24th or lower in scoring. The 3 solid offenses they’ve faced Miami, Seattle, & Arizona (all ranked in the top 11 in scoring) the SF defense allowed an average of 29 PPG. Green Bay will score here. San Francisco is without QB Garoppolo but we don’t feel back up Nick Mullens is a big downgrade. He came in last week and threw for 273 yards and led the Niners on TD drives on their final 3 offensive possessions. He’s already started 2 games this year and is completing over 70% of his passes so we think they’ll be fine. The San Fran running game, top 10 in both YPG & YPC, will keep them balanced and should have a nice day vs a GB defense that was ripped for 173 yards on the ground last week vs Minnesota. With this total set at 49.5, it’s actually a few points lower than the average scoring numbers in the NFL this year which is 51 PPG. The weather looks perfect on Thursday night and we like the OVER here. |
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11-04-20 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -123 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
#286 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Miami-OH Redhawks (-) over Ball State Cardinals, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Our projections heading into this MAC season have the Redhawks finishing near the top of the East Division right behind Buffalo while the Cardinals are likely to finish in the bottom half of the West Division. Though Ball State did go 4-4 in the MAC last season they just don't have the defense to improve on that this season plus lost some key talent at WR and along the offensive line heading into this season. Last season Ball State finished up on a 1-4 run and the only win was in their season finale over the Redhawks. Now the rematch this season is at Miami-OH and our computer math model is projecting a big revenging win for the home team in this one. The Cardinals are particularly thin at defensive line entering this season and the Redhawks return 4 offensive linemen as they got Doyle and Godlevske back after those two had initially opted out. That is key as that means returning QB Gabbert is part of a strong group of returning starters on offense including a very solid offensive line including his left tackle and center returning after they had considered opting out. The Redhawks went 6-2 in the MAC last season and appear poised for another strong season and though the defense is a bit of a concern for Miami-OH, the Cardinals defense is an even bigger concern and the Redhawks very experienced offensive group plus home field plus revenge all factor into a solid win here. Look for the host to improve to 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Miami-OH has some guys out at TE and RB for this one but they have ample talent there including returning most of their running back rotation from last season. The Redhawks roll in this one. This one has the makings of a home blowout and we're laying the small number with Miami-OH |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +13 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We feel the Giants are in a great situational spot here with 10 days to rest & prepare off their Thursday night game. Tampa made the long trip to Las Vegas last Sunday and they are on the road again this week. Great value as well on the home team here as this spread opened Bucs -8.5 or -9, which is where we have it power rated, and it’s been pushed all the way to -13 as Tampa is now officially a public team. This number is more than double Tampa’s highest road number this year – they were favored by 6 @ Denver, at team we have rated very closely to the Giants. While NY has a poor overall record, they’ve been competitive for the most part. All but 1 of their games has been decided by 10 points or less with 4 of those games being decided by 4 points or less. The Giants have been able to hang in most of their games due to a solid yet underrated defense. They rank in the top 13 in the NFL in both YPG allowed and YPP allowed. They’ve given up 26 points or less in 5 of their games and when your getting nearly 2 TD’s that significant. Offensively they’ve started to come around after not topping 16 in any of their first 4 games the Giants have put up 34, 20, and 21 points their last 3. Tampa has a HUGE game with AFC South rival New Orleans next Sunday and we expect the Giants to give them a good run in this one. Take the points. |
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11-01-20 | Saints v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Chicago +4.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not huge proponents of Chicago this year as their offense has struggled, but this line in flat out wrong in our opinion. The Bears are getting almost a TD (5 points as of this writing) vs a team we feel is drastically overvalued. For comparison’s sake, the Saints were favored by 3 @ Detroit and by 4 @ Las Vegas in their 2 road games this year. They lost by 10 @ Vegas and had to hold on late to beat the Lions 35-29. Now they are laying more than that to a Bears team that is 5-2? The Saints simply aren’t that great this year. They have 4 wins and 3 of those have come by 6 points or less. Last week they held on at home to beat the Panthers 27-24 but Carolina outgained them on a YPP basis. New Orleans ran 24 more offensive plays in that game and were only able to win by 3 game home vs Carolina. The same Panther team the Bears beat on the road by 7 a week earlier. Prior to their Carolina win, the Saints had to come from 17 points down at home to nip the Chargers in OT. Bears might be without WR Robinson in this game (questionable) however New Orleans will be without their top 3 WR’s here as Thomas, Sanders, and Callaway have all been ruled out. The Saints haven’t been on the road since October 4th and they have played a single game outdoors this season. New Orleans is an indoor, fast track team. On Sunday they are going to get 25 MPH winds and temps in the 30’s (windchill in the 20’s) at Soldier Field facing one of the top defenses in the NFL. We get it, Chicago looked bad on Monday night and their offense has struggled. However, this is simply too much value on the home team to pass up in this spot. Chicago bounces back after a poor performance, their offense looks better, and their defense continues their stellar play on Sunday. This one goes to the wire and we grab the points with Chicago. |
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11-01-20 | Chargers v. Broncos OVER 44 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
#276/276 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 44 Points – LA Chargers @ Denver, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Denver only scored 16 points last week at home vs KC but they put up 411 total yards. Their offense actually pushed into KC territory on 7 of their offensive possessions. They were only able to come up with 1 TD in the game but had multiple chances to put more than 16 points on the board. Same situation a week earlier @ New England. The Broncos settled for SIX field goals in that game in an 18-12 win. Again they had lots of chances to put numbers on the board in that game as well. The point is, this offense is playing much better than what their final scores might indicate. We think the Denver offense breaks out this week vs a Chargers defense that has allowed 38, 30, and 29 points their last 3 games. Most concerning was last week as they allowed 29 points to a Jacksonville team that had scored 30 points total their previous 2 games vs Houston & Detroit, two below average defenses. The Charger offense has been on a tear under rookie QB Herbert. They have scored 31, 27, and 39 points their last 3 games including the first two scores vs Tampa & New Orleans who both rank in the top 7 in the NFL in total defense. Herbert has thrown for over 250 yards in every start this season and the Chargers are #1 in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate. The Broncos defense is highly ranked but against the good offenses they’ve faced the scoring has been high. KC scored 43 last week in a snowstorm, Pittsburgh scored 26, and the Bucs put up 28. Even the Jets, the lowest scoring team in the NFL, had 28 points vs the Broncos so we have no doubt the Chargers will score here. Last week we had a snow storm in Denver, this Sunday calls for temps in the mid 60’s and light winds. Perfect weather. This total is currently sitting at 44.5 which is a low total for today’s NFL which averages right around 51 PPG. Take the OVER in Denver on Sunday. |
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10-31-20 | Ohio State v. Penn State UNDER 64.5 | Top | 38-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
#135/136 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 64.5 Points – Ohio State @ Penn State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - PSU gave up 36 points to Indiana last week in a 1-point OT loss. It may look like the defense struggled simply looking at the score but that was not the case. In fact, the Nittany Lions limited Indiana to just 211 total yards on 3.4 YPP. On the ground the Hoosiers only averaged 1.6 YPC. Prior to IU’s final 75 yard TD drive in the final minute which tied the game, the Hoosiers had a total of 136 yards of offense. Turnovers killed Penn State in that loss leading to short fields and points for Indiana. OSU’s defense looked very solid in game 1 limiting a Nebraska offense that returned 10 starters to just 17 points. Much of the Huskers offense came from their QB’s running the ball. If you subtract the rush yards from Martinez and McCaffrey the two NU QB’s, the offense barely had 200 yards. Buckeye QB Fields played a great game but other than that, the offense wasn’t super. While Fields was their leading rusher, the OSU RB’s only rushed for 89 yards on 23 carries (3.8 YPC). That could be a problem facing a PSU rush defense that led the Big 10 last year allowing just 95 YPG and looks very good again this year. Last year these two played to 28-17 OSU win totaling just 45 points. The 2 defenses combined to hold the offenses to just 4.3 YPP in that game. Going back further, 4 of the last 5 in this series have stayed UNDER the total and this is just the 2nd time in the last 10 meetings the total has been set in the 60’s. Last year’s total was 58 which is more on par with where this one should be in our opinion. There have been 28 games played in this Big 10 series and only THREE have reached 60 or more points. With this total set at 64 at least one or possibly both teams need to get into the 30’s. PSU has allowed 30 or more in just 3 of their last 26 games. OSU hasn’t allowed 30 in 16 straight games. UNDER in the play here. |
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10-31-20 | Ole Miss -17.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 54-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss Rebels (-) over Vanderbilt, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET: Game #185 |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -6 over the Chicago Bears, Monday 8:25 PM ET - Let’s compare how these two teams currently sit in their scheduling situation. The 5-1 Bears are off a misleading win in Carolina, while the 4-2 Rams are off a Divisional loss to the 49ers. Chicago didn’t play great in Carolina with QB Nick Foles throwing for under 200 yards and the offense gaining less than 260 on the day. The Bears were outgained in the game 4.9 yards per play to 4.1YPPL but Carolina had 3 turnovers. Chicago’s offense has been brutal this year ranking 28th in yards per play offense and 27th in scoring. Against the good defenses they’ve faced (Indy, TBay and Carolina) they have averaged less than 270-total yards of offense. The Bears will face a great Rams defense tonight that is 4th in yards per game allowed and 5th in scoring D allowing just 19PPG. Los Angeles lost in San Francisco last week which doesn’t look as bad as it was now that the 49ers are getting healthy and destroyed New England on the road yesterday. The Rams are 11-4 SU their last fifteen when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of 7.6PPG which clearly gets us a cover here. Yes, these defenses are near even but the Rams have the 10th best offense in yards gained per game and have won 39 of their last 58 at home since 2017. Their average margin of victory in those games is +6PPG. Bears QB Nick Foles is best when he’s comfortable in the pocket and not pressured but that won’t be the case tonight against this Rams defense led by DE Aaron Donald. As long as this line is under a TD we will side with the Rams. |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
#467 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Seattle -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Arizona looks like they are rolling going 2-1 on their 3 game road trip. Not so fast. Their wins on that road trip were the winless Jets and struggling Cowboys (without Prescott at QB). Minus their win over San Francisco in the season opener where they were outgained 6.0 to 5.2 YPP, Arizona’s win shave come against teams with a combined record of 3-15 with Washington being their other win besides the two mentioned above. While the Cards on a short week after winning @ Dallas on Monday, they get to face a rested 5-0 (4-1 ATS) Seattle team coming off a bye week. This will be Seattle’s 3rd road game of the season and their first 2 were 8 & 27 point wins. That puts Seattle at 2-0 ATS on the road this year and 13-3-2 ATS their last 18 games away from home. QB Russell Wilson is 72-54-7 ATS in his career in the regular season. Road team 9-1-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Seattle has owned the Cards on the road where they are 6-0-1 SU (5-1-1 ATS) their last 7 trips here including a 27-10 here last season. The Seahawks average margin of victory over that 7 game span was +14 points. We’ll take the better team in the better situation here. Lay it with Seattle. |
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10-24-20 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10 | Top | 45-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
#318 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Pittsburgh +10 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - In our opinion, Notre Dame is vastly overvalued at this point of the season due to their perfect 4-0 record. However, they haven’t beaten a single team that currently has a winning record and the combined record of the 4 teams they’ve played is 5-16. Last week they played host to Louisville, who in our power ratings is the best team the Irish have faced, and ND escaped with a 12-7 win. The Irish were held to just 4.9 YPP vs a Louisville team that ranks 32nd nationally in total defense (out of 77). The Notre Dame offense struggled with the Cards last week and now face, by far, the best defense they’ve seen this year as Pitt ranks 7th nationally in total defense. On top of that, ND relies heavily on their running game averaging 45 carries per game (12th most in the country) and Pitt’s defense ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing only 61 YPG. The Panthers are much better than their 3-3 record. They’ve lost 3 straight games by a combined 14 points. Last week they played @ Miami and lost 31-19 but the yardage was close (Pitt outgained by 30 yards) and the defense played very well holding a potent Cane offense to just 331 total yards. Miami did score 31 points but 3 of their TD drives started on Pittsburgh’s half of the field due to turnovers and the Panthers getting shut out on downs. They might be without starting QB Pickett again this week (although he has not been ruled out) but his backup Yellen got his feet wet last week throwing for 277 yards vs Miami. We have Pitt rated about dead even with Louisville so this will be the best team the Irish have played (along with the Cards) AND their first road game of the season. These two programs have faced off 12 times since 2002 with the margin of victory being 8 or less in 10 of those games. Pitt will give Notre Dame all they can handle here and we grab the generous points siding with the home dog. |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4.5 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Philadelphia -4.5 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - Watching the Eagles their last 2 games, it looks to us like Philly is starting to round into form despite their 1-4-1 record. The last 2 Sundays they’ve stood toe to toe with 2 of the best teams in the NFL, Pittsburgh & Baltimore. They outgained the Steelers on a yards per play basis and trailed by just 2 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining (lost 38-29). Last week they came from behind and had a chance to tie Baltimore with under 2:00 minutes remaining but the Eagles 2-point conversion was not successful and they lost 30-28. They also outgained the Ravens on a YPP basis in that game. This offense has turned the corner scoring 28 & 29 points vs 2 of the top defenses in the NFL the last 2 weeks. The defense already ranks in the top 10 in YPP allowed and we have a feeling this team is close to turning the corner. The Giants won last week vs Washington to pick up their first win of the season, but they didn’t look great doing it. Washington actually had nearly 100 more total yards, more first downs, and a time of possession edge in the game. NY’s offense has been flat out bad all season, with the exception of their game @ Dallas and we all know how bad the Cowboy defense is right now. If you throw that game out the window, the Giants have scored a grand total of 7 TD’s in their other 5 games. That’s it. The defense is very solid but when you have an offense that only scores 13 PPG (again, minus the Cowboy game) that puts a lot of pressure on the defense. With the way Philly has put points on the board the last few weeks, we think they’ll have success here. We can’t say the same for the NYG offense. Philly was laying almost double digits here vs New York last year (-9.5) and now were getting them at just -4.5. Lay it was we expect the Eagles to win by at least a TD. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 34 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +1.5 over Arizona, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This is an overreaction to the Dak Prescott injury along with the Cowboy struggles to date. The Cardinals should not be favored in this match up. First of all, it Arizona’s 3rd straight road game so a tough spot for them. The were smoked at Carolina two weeks ago and then beat the terrible Jets in New York last week. They’ve also lost to the Lions this year which gave Detroit their only win of the season. This is not a team that should be laying points on the road unless they are playing the Jets. Dallas lost Prescott in the 2nd half last week and veteran Andy Dalton, possibly the best back up on the league, came in and led the Cowboys to 13 points in his 5 possessions as they rallied to top the Giants. Dalton is simply not a huge drop off from Prescott. They guy has almost 32,000 passing yards and over 200 TD’s in his career. He is not a full 4 points drop off from Dak as this line was Dallas -3 leading into last week and now they are underdogs. We anticipate the Cowboys rally behind Dalton and play well in their first full game without Dak at QB. Two of Arizona’s wins came over Washington and the Jets who are 1-9 combined. Their other win was in the season opener over the Niners in a game that looked like a great win but in hindsight with San Fran’s struggles it wasn’t look all that impressive. The Boys have just a 2-3 record but their 3 losses have come at the hands of Seattle, LA Rams, and Cleveland who have a combined 13-2 record. Cowboys may get some key players back defensively including their starting MLB Vander Esch. Offensively they rank #1 in the NFL in YPG and 3rd in YPP and we expect them to continue to roll with Dalton at QB. We’ll take advantage of this bad line and take Dallas at home. |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers OVER 51 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 51 Points – Cleveland @ Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Pittsburgh’s overall defensive numbers this year are very good, however they’ve played a VERY easy schedule of offenses thus far. In 3 of their 4 games they’ve faced the Giants, Eagles, and Broncos who currently rank 29th, 28th, and 27th in offensive efficiency (YPP offense). Two of those three actually scored more points vs the Steelers than their season average and the other, the Giants, hit their average PPG right on the head. Last week Pittsburgh faced an Eagle offense that was averaging an NFL worst 4.5 yards per play entering the game. Philly eclipsed that average by nearly a yard and a half last week putting up 5.9 YPP vs Pittsburgh. The Eagles came into the game averaging 21 PPG and put up 29 last Sunday. Now they face a Cleveland offense that is rolling scoring 30+ points in 4 straight games. If you throw out their clunker in week 1 @ Baltimore, the Browns are averaging 37.5 PPG over their last 4. That includes a 32 point output last week vs the Colts who entered the game as the #1 overall defense in the NFL. The problem with Cleveland isn’t their offense, it’s their defense. They’ve allowed 30 or more in 3 of their 5 games and haven’t allowed less than 20 in any game this season. Pittsburgh’s offense scored 38 points last week on a solid Philly defense (#6 in YPP defense) and they’ve scored at least 26 in every game this year. The weather looks great here with light winds and no precipitation and we expect an AFC North shootout. Take the OVER. |
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10-17-20 | North Carolina v. Florida State OVER 64 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
#125/126 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 64 Points – North Carolina @ Florida State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - First off we are well aware of the injury situation for Florida State here. QB Jordan Travis is dealing with a hand injury. He has participated in practice this week and was listed as the starter on the depth chart and we do expect him to play here. However, even if he does not start then it will be former starter James Blackman back in the starting role. At home and with a chance to redeem himself from a rough beginning to the season (which cost him his starting job), Blackman would be likely to respond big here given the opportunity. The Seminoles also lost WR Tamorrion Terry to a season-ending injury in the Notre Dame game. Though he was off to a great start for the Noles this season, Terry wasn't even listed as a starter early this season and had worked his way into that role. Would FSU love to have Terry? Of course! But even without him there is plenty of WR talent on this Florida State team and they will be testing out a North Carolina defense that just got scorched for 495 yards by Virginia Tech last week! The Tar Heels first two games this season were against Syracuse and Boston College and that helped mask some issues on the defensive side of the ball. The Tar Heels defense absolutely has issues and that is what the Hokies exposed last week. However, the other side of the ball is where UNC really has no issues. That is why they won last week's game despite allowing 45 points as North Carolina exploded for 56 points on 656 yards of offense. The Heels have a fantastic backfield as Carter and Williams ran for 214 and 169 yards, respectively, plus each had a pair of rushing TDs in the win over Virginia Tech. Also, QB Howell was 18 of 23 for 257 yards and 3 TDs and now takes on a Noles defense that is allowing nearly 70% completion percentage on the season. The Seminoles defense having major issues with 39.3 points per game allowed the last 3 games and the Tar Heels are averaging 7.56 yards per play on offense to rank among the most efficient offenses in the nation. The Noles, on the other hand, allowing 6.49 yards per play on defense to rank among the least efficient defenses in the nation. On offense however Florida State plays at a fast pace (76.5 offensive plays per game) and did put up 26 points on a Fighting Irish defense that had allowed a total of only 13 points in its first two games combined! You can see exactly why we're expecting both teams to enjoy plenty of success lighting up the scoreboard in this one as our computer math model is forecasting a shootout. Ideal weather conditions expected for this one as well. Both teams getting well into the 30’s mean an OVER here and Tar Heels (double digit favorite here) have a good shot to get into the 40's or 50's! |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -7 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) over Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #170 |
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10-12-20 | Chargers +8 v. Saints | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 14 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Chargers +8 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re still not sold on this Saints team being one of the best in the NFL. Especially with their current injury concerns at WR, DB, and on the offensive line. Their wins have come against Tampa, where they were outgained but benefitted from 3 Buc turnovers including a pick 6, and Detroit. Their game last week @ Detroit they fell down 14-0, came back to take a lead and barely held on 35-29. Offensively the Saints were only able to put up 5.7 YPP last week vs a Detroit defense that has allowed 6.2 YPP this season. We think, because they have a 1-3 record, the Chargers are a bit undervalued right now. They’ve lost 3 straight games that have gone to the wire. They played KC as tough as anyone over the last year as they led the entire game but lost in OT. Last week they led Tampa on the road 24-7 but Brady pulled his comeback magic and rallied the Bucs for a win. Starting QB Herbert has been very impressive to date with a completion rate of 72% while averaging over 300 YPG passing. The Bolts have held leads in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 4 games this year and their defense has been solid holding 3 of their 4 opponents to 23 points or less including limiting KC to 20 points in regulation. This is a tough team to pull away from and we expect a tight game. The Chargers are a money making 12-4-3 ATS their last 19 non-division road games under head coach Anthony Lynn. The Saints have covered just 4 of their last 14 games as a home favorite. Undervalued vs Overvalued here. Take the points. |
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10-11-20 | Dolphins v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 43-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
#469/470 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Over 51 Points – Miami @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - San Francisco is getting Garoppolo back at QB here which will help this offense immensely. He’s a big upgrade over Mullens & Beathard. Top TE Kittle came back last week and their starting RB Mostert looks like he may be back as well for this one. San Fran’s offense has actually been playing well with some of their top playmakers on the shelf. Last week they scored just 20 points vs Philly but had over 400 yards of offense on 6.0 YPP. However they committed 3 turnovers including an interception at the Eagle 14 yard line as they were heading in to potentially score. Prior to last week the Niners scored 31 vs the Jets and 36 vs a very good NY Giants defense that ranks in the top 10 in a number of key defensive categories. We see San Francisco moving the ball at will this week vs a Miami defense that ranks last in the NFL allowing 6.6 YPP. The Fins offense has actually come around nicely after their season opener @ New England where they scored only 11 points. Since that game they have scored 28, 31, and 23 points. Last week’s 23 they put up on Seattle was very deceiving as Miami settled for FIVE field goals in that game despite rolling up over 400 yards on 6.1 YPP. We hope that head coach Brian Flores learns from that mistake as in today’s game, it’s very hard to win settling for that many FG’s. High scoring games are now the norm (league average is 51.5 PPG) and they’ll need to score with San Fran to keep up here. We think they will. The Niner defense is a bit overrated right now as they’ve faced the Jets, Giants, and Eagles in their last 3 games. Those 3 offense rank 30th, 31st, and 32nd this year in yards per play! With the 49ers favored by 8 and the total set around 50, the final score expected is 29-21. We like both team to eclipse their expected totals in this game. The weather looks great in SF for the game and we like the OVER here. |
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10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -117 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
#330 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Auburn -13.5 over Arkansas, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET Well Arkansas finally did it. They broke their 20 game SEC losing streak last week by upsetting Mississippi State 21-14 as a 16.5 point underdog. A couple of quick points about that game. First of all, they caught MSU off a monumental upset @ LSU so no doubt the Bulldogs weren’t completely focused on the Razorbacks who last won an SEC game in 2017 and that win was by just 1 point! Secondly, Arkansas was very fortunate to win last week as they were dominated in the stat sheet. The Bulldogs were +7 first downs and outgained the Razors 400 to 275. The problem for MSU was their FOUR turnovers. The first one set the tone for the upset as Arky returned a pick 6 just a few minutes into the game to take a 7-0 lead. Not only did the Dogs cough it up 4 times, they were also shut out on downs twice deep inside Arkansas territory at the 13 & 7 yard line. The Dogs also lost their top RB Hill (1350 yards last year) in the first quarter to an injury. Needless to say, a lot of things had to fall into place for Arky to pick up their first win in conference play in nearly 3 years and that’s exactly what happened. Now they are on the road again this week facing an extra motivated Auburn team. That’s because after beating a very solid Kentucky team here in week 1 by a final of 29-13, they were dominated @ Georgia last week. They went into the game as a 7.5 point dog and felt they could pull the upset. Didn’t happen as the Dawgs pushed them around which we look at as a wake up call for the Tigers. After the game Auburn head coach Malzahn stated, “We really got whipped in all 3 phases. We got outcoached.” We’re pretty sure this Auburn team will be more than ready this week. You can also count on them trying to put as many points on the board as possible. We don’t think there will be any backing off with a lead here coming off a loss and the fact that Auburn’s new OC Morris was the head coach at Arkansas last year and got canned. He’ll be motivated as well. This situation looks very similar to the last few seasons when Auburn was coming off a tough loss and pasted Arkansas the following week. Last year the Tigers lost at Florida and then beat the Razorbacks 51-10 just one week later. In 2018, they were coming off a tight 1-point loss vs LSU and proceeded to pound Arkansas 34-3 the following Saturday. The Razors are happy to be 1-1 but their offense will have big problems here vs a top notch Auburn defense. Arkansas currently averages just 277 YPG which ranks 70th out of 74 current teams playing & 15.5 PPG which includes last week’s pick 6. If you take that away, the offense has scored just 24 points in 2 games this year. We love the value here as well. We have this game power rated at Auburn -17.5. We could argue it should be even higher. These teams both played UGA and Arkansas was +27.5 at home while Auburn was +7.5 on the road. Just based on that alone, with no home field factored in whatsoever, it tells us Auburn should be a 20 point favorite on a neutral field. The weather calls for some rain, however the winds shouldn’t be bad at 10-12 MPH. We like Auburn to roll up a big home win on Saturday and getting this under 2 TD’s is a steal. |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 45 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 45 Points, Tampa Bay @ Chicago, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a low total by today’s standards but we still like the UNDER in this game. This number opened 45 and has dropped to 44.5 which is also telling as most of the totals this year are moving up from the opener and now down. We have 2 of the top defenses in the NFL here with Tampa ranking 2nd in Football Outsiders defensively with Chicago coming in at 7th. On a yards per play basis, these 2 defense also both rank in the top 7 in the NFL. The Bears offense was putrid last week vs Indy scoring just 11 points and they had only 3 points under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game. They tallied only 269 total yards and 90 of those came on their final drive while the Colts were in prevent defense mode. It wasn’t a complete surprise as Indy’s defense ranks #1 in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA but let’s not forget Tampa ranks 2nd so not a huge difference. Chicago has scored 85 points on the season and nearly half of those points (42) came in the 4th quarter of their games vs the Lions & Falcons when they had to make big comebacks vs teams with terrible defenses. Tampa is coming off a big offensive output last week as they had to come from 24-7 down at home vs Chargers to get the 38-31 win. Their defense played poorly allowing 6.5 YPP which is well above their average of 5.1 YPP allowed. Expect a much better effort tonight. Overall offensively TB is a middle of the pack team averaging 5.7 YPP which ranks them 18th in that category. We don’t foresee Brady having a huge night (5 TD passes last week) vs a Chicago defense that ranks 6th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed. The Bucs offense is also banged up with WR Godwin, RB Fournette, RB McCoy, and TE Howard all out tonight. Their top WR Evans is also dealing with an ankle injury. Take the UNDER in this one. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons +7 v. Packers | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Atlanta Falcons +7 over Green Bay Packers, Monday 8:50PM ET We understand you are going to have a hard time betting against the 3-0 Packers and betting on 0-3 Atlanta but that’s why they make pointspreads. The Packers have played nearly flawless offense in their start to the season which cannot last forever based on the Law of Averages. Atlanta has blown two 15+ point leads in their last two games (in the 4th quarter) and lost both games to fall to 0-3. Are the Packers and Falcons as good/bad as their records? No, we do not think so. If we turned back the clock and it was week 1 this line might be Packers favored by 4-points at best, so value clearly lies with Atlanta. The Packers were 7-point favorites at home against the Lions who are not as good as this Falcons team. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has been incredible, but the Falcons O is not far behind. The Packers average 460YPG, Atlanta 419YPG, Green Bay 40.7PP and Atlanta 30PPG. Atlanta has allowed 36PPG (most coming late in games) which is 31st in the NFL but the Packers are not much better allowing 28.3PPG and 6.6 yards per play which is 31st in the league. Atlanta has veteran-laden team with a particularly good road record and 5 straight covers away from home. The Falcons are 8-9 ATS their last seventeen as a dog but their loss margin is just minus -3.4PPG. Conversely, the Packers are 13-10 their last twenty-three as a favorite with a win margin of +4.6PPG. Those two differentials are obviously enough for an Atlanta Falcons cover. Grab the points. |
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10-04-20 | Browns v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
#260 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas -4.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a huge game for the Cowboys. They cannot afford to drop to 1-3. They’ve faced a fairly tough slate having to go on the road to LA Rams and Seattle while facing Atlanta at home whose much better than their 0-3 record. Last week they led Seattle on the road 31-30 with under 2:00 remaining when Russell Wilson pulled more of his magic to pick up a win. Dallas outgained Seattle by over 100 yards in that game and averaged 6.5 YPP in the process. A week prior they outgained the potent Atlanta offense by nearly 200 yards despite having to come from behind to win that one. The Boys have a +0.8 YPP differential which is not indicative of a team that currently has a losing record. Meanwhile Cleveland is off 2 home wins and could step into this one a bit fat and happy as we like to say. However, those wins came at the hands of 2 of the worst teams in the NFL, Cincinnati and Washington and neither were all that easy. They held on to beat Cincinnati 35-30 and last week vs Washington they Browns trailed entering the 4th quarter before scoring 3 straight TD’s to pull away. Cleveland is now 0-7 both SU & ATS their last 7 road games losing by an average of 18 PPG. Going back even further, since November of 2014 the Browns are just 5-39 SU on the road and 17-27 ATS in those games. This is a much bigger game for Dallas and we’ll lay the points. |
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10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
#123 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Oklahoma -7 over Iowa State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We are well aware that recent meetings between these teams have been close games. However, this line was in the double digit range and has dropped to a -7 and we feel we have exceptional line value here with Oklahoma primed for a blowout win. Last season's match-up between these teams was decided by a single point but the Sooners led that game 42-21 late and they won't make the same mistake this season. Yes, the Sooners are off an upset loss to Kansas State but OU had a 4-0 turnover deficit in the game. The Sooners actually had 28 first downs compared to only 10 for the Wildcats and yet they lost the game outright. This is helping to give us great line value this week with Oklahoma. The Sooners piled up 517 yards of offense in that game and now take on an Iowa State team that just allowed 499 yards at TCU last week. The Cyclones tight win over the Horned Frogs had a lot to do with a 2-1 turnover edge and the Frogs had 10 penalties compared to just 3 for Iowa State. The Cyclones also lost their season opener to UL Lafayette by 17 points. In that game they barely eclipsed the 300 yard mark in terms of total offense. The fact is that highly regarded Cyclones QB Brock Purdy hasn't been overly impressive so far this season as his completion percentage is down from the 2 prior seasons and he has thrown for an average of just 178 yards per game. Keep in mind last season Purdy threw for nearly 4,000 yards. The Cyclones simply won't be able to score enough here to keep up with an angry Sooners team that has a dangerous offensive attack and won't be able to be stopped in this one. Lay it! This will be a road rout for Oklahoma |
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10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets OVER 40.5 | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: Over 40.5 Denver Broncos at New York Jets, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - These are two bad offenses as they rank in the bottom three in the league along with the Giants in most statistical categories. Both average less than 5.0 yards per play and less than 16PPG. So how can we bet Over here? For several good reasons starting with who each team has played and how it’s impacted their offensive numbers. The Jets have faced the Colts who are 1st in defensive efficiency this season, the 49ers who are 5th and the Bills who were 7th a year ago. The Broncos are in a similar boat as they have faced Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh who currently rank 2nd and 3rd in DEFF and the Titans who are league average. It’s no wonder these two teams have struggled offensively to start the season. Both will face defenses that are slightly above average and slightly below and should have a much easier time scoring in this Thursday night affair. Both teams do not waste a lot of time running their offense as they rank 10th and 11th in pace of play averaging less than 25.83 second to run a play. NFL teams are averaging 51 PPG combined this year. Overs are 30-18 on the season and through 3 weeks last season averages scores in the NFL were 44.5, so up almost a full TD per game. The other big key here is the actual number posted by Vegas. Average Totals set in 2020 / week 1 =45.5 / week 2 = 46 / week 3 = 48 / week 4 = 50. With this number being as low as it is we have to bet OVER here. |
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09-27-20 | Cowboys +5 v. Seahawks | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
#485 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Dallas +5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’ve seen some solid line value with these week 3 games and this one is no exception. Our power rating have Dallas as a 3-point dog here so we’re getting at least a few extra points. The look ahead line on this game was Seattle -3 and -3.5 last week. Everyone watched Seattle beat New England on Sunday Night (barely) while Dallas was struggling at home vs Atlanta and came out with a miraculous win. That’s why 70% of the tickets have come in on Seattle here. The Seahawks are 2-0 but were outgained in both games including getting outyarded 506 to 383 in their season opening win @ Atlanta. The Falcons made a number of mistakes to allow Seattle to win that game and Russell Wilson was almost perfect with just 4 incomplete passes. Last week they held New England just short of the goal line as time expired to pick up a 35-30 win. Now Seattle is a bit overvalued. Dallas has played 2 down to the wire games losing @ LA Rams by 3 and winning last week by 1. We expect another very close game here and getting the Cowboys above +4 is great value. The Boys still have one of the top offenses in the NFL with weapons all over the field. After leading the NFL in YPP last year, they are currently 5th this season at 6.3 YPP. They will be able to move the ball and put points on the board here vs a Seattle defense that has allowed 6.7 YPP in their first 2 games, 3rd worst in the league. Despite their 1-point cover last week in a game they nearly lost, the Seahawks have not been a great home favorite as of late. Last season they were just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite losing 3 of those games outright. Dallas wea favored in their first 2 games but has been a very successful 7-2 ATS as a dog dating back to October of 2018. This one should be close so we grab the points. |
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09-26-20 | Tennessee v. South Carolina +4 | Top | 31-27 | Push | 0 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
#406 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON South Carolina +4 over Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Tennessee comes into this game with a lot of high expectations placed on them coming into the season. The Volunteers, including their 1-point win in the Gator Bowl over Indiana, have won 6 straight games and are ranked 16th in the nation entering this contest. That 6-game winning streak started with a big home win over South Carolina last season. However, South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp entered that contest having beaten Tennessee 7 straight times and that sets up this home dog revenge situation perfectly for the Gamecocks. South Carolina is flying under the radar a bit early this season because they are known for solid, physical defensive play but Muschamp's teams also are known for struggling to put many points on the board. That should change this season. We like the fact that new offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo (former head coach at Colorado State) has former Rams QB Collin Hill to work with. He is a graduate transfer and won the starting job from Ryan Hilinski. Of course Hill knows Bobo's offense well and that will allow the Gamecocks revamped offense to hit the ground running with Bobo's play-calling and Hill's leadership as a veteran with experience in this offense. Hill's college career started in 2016 at Colorado State so he has a lot of experience under his belt! Last year's match-up between these teams saw the Gamecocks lead 21-17 at the half but they were on the road at Tennessee and playing with an anemic offense and watched the Volunteers outscore them 24-0 the rest of the way. This match-up will play out much differently. Of course the ranked (and hyped) Vols are attracting attention from the marketplace but they also have had issues leading up to this game because of covid-19 cases. This has resulted in Tennessee not being able to have consistently scheduled practices. Now they go on the road playing right into the teeth of revenge and there is a very positive atmosphere right now in South Carolina as the team seems rejuvenated with the change at offensive coordinator. The Gamecocks also have stability on the other side of the ball with Travaris Robinson continuing as the defensive coordinator - a role he was hired for in December 2015 - and he has plenty of experience working with Muschamp. Upset alert in this one! We like South Carolina plus the points here. |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER 49 Points – New Orleans @ Las Vegas, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Many will simply look at the final scores from last week, see that the Saints put up 34 points, and just assume their offense rolled up big numbers. That’s not the case at all. In fact, their offense simply wasn’t very good in that win over Tampa. They tallied just 271 total yards and barely averaged 4.0 YPP. QB Brees looked old (he is) and struggled to throw for only 160 yards. He will now most likely be without his top target by far, WR Thomas who was injured last week. Two of New Orleans TD’s came on a pick 6 thrown by TB QB Brady and a short field after another Brady interception. The Saints defense, o the other hand, looked very solid vs what should be one of the best offenses in the NFL (Tampa). They made Brady look simply not very good and held the Bucs to just 4.8 YPP. Not a surprise as we had their defense rated very highly coming into this season after holding 6 of their final 9 opponents last year to 20 points or less in regulation. The Raiders put up 34 points last week but that was facing a Carolina defense we have pegged for near the bottom of the league. That final score was 34-30 and the 2 teams put up those numbers on 760 total yards. That means they were scoring 1 point for every 11.8 yards gained. In the Bucs – Saints game, they put up 57 points on just 581 total yards or 10.2 yards per point. Both of those games had extremely efficient numbers offensively which also has luck involved. To give you an idea, last season SF led the league at 1 point scored for every 12.9 yards gained which was worse than BOTH games we are discussing here. Both teams involved in Monday’s game scored over 30 points last week which gives us some solid value on the UNDER in this game. |
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09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON NY Giants +5.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Giants actually looked OK on Monday night. Their offense didn’t do much (lost 26-16) but that was expected vs a Pittsburgh team that just might have the best defense in the NFL. We had the UNDER in that game and cashed but here we like the Giants to play Chicago tight and possibly pull the upset. QB Jones played fairly well against a great defense minus his 2 interceptions (279 yards & 2 TDs). They had no running game but that should improve here vs a Chicago defense that allowed Detroit to run for 138 yards last week. RB Barkley will have a much easier time this week after his 15 carry, 6 yard performance last week. The Bears came from 23-6 down in the 4th quarter @ Detroit last week so they pulled off a huge division comeback win. The Chicago offense looked shaky at best with Trubisky at the helm for much of the game. He did lead them to the 4th quarter comeback but we cannot trust him as a significant favorite. The Giants defense actually impressed us last week holding what should be a very solid Pitt offense (with Roethlisberger back) to 349 yards on 5.5 YPP. They should improve on that this week vs a pedestrian Chicago offense. When these two met here in Chicago last year, the Bears escaped with a 19-14 win after trailing at halftime. We expect the Giants to be improved this year while Chicago we’re not so sure. The Bears have covered only ONCE in their last 7 games as a favorite (can’t trust Trubisky in this role) and NY is 10-2 their last 12 as a road dog. Giants have a decent shot at the outright win here so we’ll grab the points. |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest +1 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Wake Forest +1 over NC State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a great set up for Wake in our opinion. The Deacons were whipped last week vs Clemson losing 37-13 to what might just be the best team in the country. Now they take a huge step down in competition facing an NC State team that finished 1-7 in ACC play last season getting outscored by 159 points in the process (average ACC loss was by 20 points). While WF was getting a game under their best vs Clemson, the Wolfpack still have yet to play. On top of that, they’ve had a number of Covid outbreak interruptions which has limited their already shortened practice time. They were supposed to open their season 2 weeks ago vs Virginia Tech but that game had to be rescheduled September 26th. That’s not a great situation for a team that struggled last year and is trying to learn new systems on both offense and defense as both coordinators are new this year. The entire NC State coaching staff has pretty much been revamped over the last 2 year which disrupts continuity. Just 1 assistant remains on staff from the 2018 season. While NCSU’s coaching staff has had to go through massive changes, WF head coach Dave Clawson has turned this program from a doormat into a winning program. He took a perennial loser and has now led them to 4 straight winning season. Coaching edge is definitely with Wake in this game. NC State QB Leary returns after starting 6 games last year but we’re not so sure that’s a positive. He completed just 48% of his passes and was 0-6 in those starts losing by an average score of 41-16. When Leary faced off against Wake last year, he struggled to say the least completing just 17 of his 45 pass attempts with the Deacs winning 44-10. He now must face basically that same defense with Wake returning 9 starters on that side of the ball. The Demon Deacons have now won 3 straight in this series including 2 years ago here in Raleigh when they were heavy underdogs. The Pack was favored 3 times at home in ACC games last year and lost 2 of those games outright. Going back to the previous season NCSU has actually lost outright 3 of the last 4 times they’ve been a home ACC favorite. No fans in the stands here takes away any home field advantage NC State may have had. We think Wake is the better team, in the better situation, with no long travel (schools are 100 miles apart), and should be favored here. We’ll gladly take the points with the better team with a game already under their belt. |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 43.5 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER 43 – Cincinnati @ Cleveland, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET We like the value here as this total opened 46 and we’re now seeing 43. Our advice would be to play this NOW as we expect the total to head back up on Thursday. Look for the Cleveland offense and new HC Stefanski (former Minnesota OC) to come out with a chip on their shoulder on Thursday night after being held to 6 points last week @ Baltimore. They go from facing a top 5 defense to a middle of the pack at best defense which will help the offense. Cleveland’s defense last week allowed nearly 7.0 YPP to the Ravens and while we don’t expect that from the Bengals, they should have success moving the ball with Joe Burrow now at QB (193 yards passing & 46 yards rushing last week). The Chargers offense, with new QB Tyrod Taylor, actually moved the ball pretty well on the Bengals after the first few series. They were held on downs twice inside Cincy territory and missed a FG so their 16 points was a bit deceiving. The Chargers only punted twice after their first 3 series so they had chances to score points but didn’t. This has been a fairly high scoring series as of late with the last 5 meetings getting to at least 44 points. The average point total in the last 5 meetings is 49 PPG. In last year’s 2 meetings the offenses combined to average 6.0 yards per play while scoring 56 & 46 points. Now that this one is down to 43, we like the OVER. |
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09-14-20 | Steelers v. Giants UNDER 46 | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on UNDER 46 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. NY Giants, Monday 7PM ET The Steelers welcome the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger and hope he can spark an offense that averaged 26.8PPG in 2018, then dropped to 27th in the league in scoring last season at 18.1PPG. Big Ben is a 15 year NFL vet and obviously knows this offense inside and out but he’s coming into this game with a short prep time and a surgery-repaired right elbow. Just how effective and crisp will he be with his young receivers? Not to mention, it’s highly unlikely Coach Tomlin is going to jeopardize the season by having him throw it a ton in the opener, especially with two new starters on the right-half of the starting O-line. We expect the Steelers to have a conservative game plan and a heavy dose of the running game with James Conner, who is coming off a down season after missing several games and facing defenses stacked to stop the run. Don’t expect the Steelers to just score a ton of points against this Giants defense that wasn’t quite as bad as some statistics show from 2019. New York was 26th in yards allowed per game but did hold opposing rushers to under 4.0 yards per rush which was 4th best in the NFL. The Giants have a new system in place with new head coach Joe Judge who comes from the Patriots organization along with a new offensive coordinator in Jason Garrett from Dallas. Garrett will lean on running back Saquon Barkley as he did Elliott in Dallas. Under Garrett the Cowboys ranked top 10 in rushing attempts per game the past four seasons. But can Barkley have success against this Steelers ferocious defense that allowed just one 100-yards rusher last season. We are not sure we want to be Daniel Jones the second year QB for the Giants who will see plenty of pressure up front. The Steelers defensive front should have itself a field day versus the Giants O-line which starts rookie tackle Andrew Thomas and first-year Giant Cam Fleming. New York also has a new center, Nick Gates, who started in three games last season at guard. Both teams were near average in yards per point offense and below average in scoring. The Steelers were one of the slower paced teams in the league last season and the new regime in New York has emphasized a ball control approach in camp. Our math model projects just 41 total points being scored here and we couldn’t agree more. |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON LA Rams +2.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET LA was in the Super Bowl 2 years ago and dropped back to 9-7 last year. A regression was expected so that wasn’t a big surprise. This is still a very well coached, solid team that we like as a dog here at home in their first game at the brand new SoFi Stadium. They actually may catch a break with no fans in the stadium as Cowboys fans travel as well as any and this very well could have been a home game like atmosphere for Dallas. The Cowboys are expected to be one of the top teams in the NFC but aren’t they always? The fact is, Dallas is almost always overvalued entering the season and we feel they are here laying a full FG on the road vs a playoff caliber team in the Rams. Dallas beat the have nots last year but they were just 1-6 SU vs teams that made the playoffs. One of the few decent teams they did beat last year was this Rams squad. IT was an embarrassing 44-21 loss for LA at Dallas and we expect they will have a chip on their shoulder here after that setback. The Rams were favored in that game @ Dallas and now they are getting a full FG at home just one year later. In week 1, games that have a total of 50 or higher (this one does) the underdog is 13-2 ATS. This system did lose on Thursday night with KC covering but we don’t see that happening here. The majority of wagers have come in on Dallas (60%) which is not a surprise at all, yet only 35% of the money is on the Boys. We like this situation and we’ll take the Rams +3. |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina +7 v. Kansas | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
#403 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Coastal Carolina +7 over Kansas, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Coastal went into Kansas last year and upset the Jayhawks 12-7 as a TD underdog. While some may think KU will have extra motivation here after that loss, they are simply not good enough to be laying a full TD in this or really any game. Last year was no fluke. The Chanticleers played KU toe to toe and actually had more first downs, more total yardage, and nearly a 10 minute time of possession edge. They return 14 starters this year including many key players and we expect them to be better this season than they were last. Their record last year was just 5-7, however they lost 4 of those 7 games by 7 points or less so they could have easily had a better season. They ran the ball very well last year (35th nationally) and return 4 starters on the OLine along with top RB Marable who ran for 148 yards vs Kansas and over 1,000 on the season. We expect more of the same this year vs a Jayhawk defense that ranked 124th vs the run last year allowing 225 YPG. Kansas lost their QB, 3 starting offensive lineman, their 3 top defensive lineman and their best cover corner and 2 starting safeties. Their defense last year gave up at least 31 points in 8 of their 12 games and now with a number of new faces it’s tough to see a drastic improvement if any. The offense may take some time to gel as well as the QB’s vying for the starting job have attempted a grand total of 19 passes combined in their careers. Lastly, and something we see as a big but overlooked situation is the fact that CC was able to get in ALL 15 of their spring practices to get ready for this season while Kansas did not have a single practice in the spring. This is a KU team that has won just 6 of their last 59 games SU (vs FBS opponents) and now they're being asked to win this one by more than a TD. No thanks. We like Coastal Carolina here. |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Under 54.5 Points – Houston vs Kansas City, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET We think there is definitely some value on this UNDER. It currently sits at 55 points and when these two met in last year’s playoffs, the total was 50.5. We’re sure the reason the oddmakers had to set this number so much higher than last year’s total was the fact the playoff game was such a high scoring final with the Chiefs winning 51-31. This is absolutely a different situation this year. We expect the offenses to be a bit behind to start the season with a shortened training camp and no pre-season games to get in sync offensively. In their playoff match up both teams were overly efficient offensively scoring 1 point every 10 yards gained. To put that in perspective, the team that led the NFL in yards per point efficiency was San Francisco at 12.6. The average YPPT number last year in the NFL was around 15.5. If that number was applied to the total yardage in that game last year (876 yards) they would have scored 56 total points, not 81. These 2 also met in October of last season with Houston winning 31-24. The Texans ran the ball 41 times in that game attempting to keep the ball away from the KC offense. It worked in the regular season meeting and we expect a heavy dose of new RB David Johnson here vs a defense that ranked 29th last year YPC allowed. Trying to get in a shootout with KC doesn’t work. Houston found that out in the playoffs. To put this number in the season opener in perspective, Houston didn’t have a SINGLE total set this high all of last season. Kansas City had ONE total set higher than this one and that was 55.5 vs Indy in what turned out to be a 19-13 game. If we project this total onto last year’s results for both teams, in other words if every total last year was 55 for each team’s games, we would have seen 24 Unders, 10 Overs, and 3 Ties. The UNDER in KC home games in which they are favored by more than a TD is an impressive 21-4! Simply too many points in a season opener with a less than ideal situation leading up to this game. Take the UNDER. |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON UNDER: Brigham Young Cougars at Navy Midshipmen, Monday at 8 ET: Game #244 |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3.5 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Army West Point Black Knights (-) over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET: Game #242 |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss -13 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-) over South Alabama Jaguars, Thursday at 9 PM ET: Game #236 |
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02-02-20 | 49ers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON San Francisco +1.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET We had this game power rated at dead even on a neutral field so we’re getting some line value with San Fran in our opinion. The Niners finished with the better record (15-3 while KC was 14-4) despite facing the tougher schedule. The NFC West with the Rams & Seahawks (playoff team and playoff caliber team) was much tougher than the AFC West who had every team finish under .500 except the Chiefs. Down the stretch the 49ers faced a brutal schedule which included Green Bay (twice), LA Rams, Baltimore, New Orleans, Seattle (twice), and Minnesota all in their last 10 games (including playoffs). The only 2 non playoff caliber teams they played over their last 10 games were Arizona and Atlanta (who was actually playing very well at the end of the season). KC, on the other hand, faced off against the Chargers (twice), Denver, Oakland, Chicago, and New England over their final 6 regular season games – only one playoff caliber team. Despite the tougher schedule San Francisco had the better stats - +11 ppg, +96 ypg and +1.3 ypp this season while the Chiefs were +10 ppg, +32 ypg and +0.9 ypp. San Francisco had a point differential of +169 while KC was +143. Kansas City took on 8 playoff teams this year going 5-3 SU & ATS and outgaining those playoff opponents by an average of 31.0 yards per game. San Francisco went 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS against their playoff opponents outgaining those teams by an average of 37.4 yards per game. Slight edge to Frisco. We think SF has an edge at many of the positions with QB being one of the few exceptions. Although it’s not as big of a gap there as some may expect. Let’s not forget that Niner QB Garoppolo is an amazing 23-5 SU as an NFL starter! The experts at Pro Football Focus recently ranked the players in the Super Bowl and 18 of the top 26 were 49ers. We agree with that. They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in total defense compared to 17th for Chiefs) which has been a successful formula in the past with 44 of the 53 Super Bowl winners entered the game with the higher ranked defense. They also have a much better ground game (2nd rated compared to 22nd for KC) so we will say with solid confidence that SF will outrush KC here facing a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th allowing 124 YPG on the ground. If that’s the case, teams that have the higher rushing total in the Super Bowl are 40-12 SU in the Super Bowl. We think SF will control the ground game, eating clock and keeping KC’s dangerous offense on the sidelines. We like the better defense and better running game getting points on Sunday. Take San Francisco. |
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