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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-15-21 | Maple Leafs -199 v. Senators | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -199 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
6* Toronto (7:05 ET): Toronto and Ottawa have been division rivals ever since the NHL’s previous realignment, which placed both in the Atlantic. For this atypical 2020-21 season, they are now part of the new “North Division,” which is comprised of all the league’s Canadian franchises. It’s a necessity because of COVID-19 restricting travel. The Leafs should be quite happy about this development as they’ll get to face the Senators NINE times this season. (All regular season games are vs. division foes this year). For the first meeting, I like the Leafs to roll. They’ve already got a game under their belt, which they won 5-4 against Montreal on Wednesday. The win did require OT as the Leafs battled back from a two-goal deficit. They never led in regulation, but did end up outshooting the Habs 34-32. I’ve seen plenty of Stanley Cup buzz surrounding this team and rightly so as they are an elite offensive club, led by Hart Trophy candidate Auston Matthews. The new division alignment really favors the Leafs, who no longer have to contend with Tampa Bay and Boston. (A side note: this is as good a year as any for the 28-year drought of no Stanley Cup in Canada to end. One of them is guaranteed to be in the final four). Ottawa comes into the year on the opposite end of the spectrum as they finished with the second fewest points in the league last season. They have yet to play a game. Opening with two against Toronto is not ideal. The Senators are being pegged for last in the North this season (Toronto is the consensus #1) and initially it looked like we were getting a real bargain with this line. It’s since been steamed up quite a bit, but that won’t change the fact this should be an easy two points for the Leafs. 6* Toronto |
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09-21-20 | Stars v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
10* Over Stars/Lightning (8:05 ET): The Stars continue to defy the odds as they took Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, 4-1. It was their 12th win in the last 16 games, the last nine of which have all come as underdogs on the money line. This run of theirs has caused me great consternation as I’ve been predicting their downfall going all the way back to the Colorado series. Sometimes you need to know when to “cut bait,” I suppose. Here we are turning to the total as I see Game 2 of the SCF going Over. Tampa Bay had been rolling through the postseason, losing only four games in the first three rounds. Like Vegas did against Dallas in the Western Conference Finals, the Lightning significantly outshot the Stars in Game 1 (36-20!). But that didn’t matter as Anton Khudobin (.950 save percentage vs. Vegas) stopped all but one of the 36 shots he faced. Khudobin’s run is bound to have a “slip up” or two as no goalie can possibly maintain that kind of save percentage over the long-term, especially when facing so many shots on a consistent basis. The Lightning MAY get Steven Stamkos back for Game 2, but regardless I expect a bounce back effort offensively. They are averaging 38.8 shots over the L5 games, an excellent number, yet are also averaging only 2.2 goals over the same frame. Their L4 games have all gone Under or pushed and the Under is now 5-2-2 their L9 games. The Under is 4-0-2 in Dallas’ last six games, so I’d say the Over is “due” to hit for both teams, both of which are averaging 3.0 goals per game this postseason. 10* Over Stars/Lightning |
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09-19-20 | Stars v. Lightning -145 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:35 ET): If you’ve been following my NHL picks this postseason, the first thing I’d like to do is apologize! To be fair, the 1st round went exceptionally well. But things have largely “gone South” in the last two rounds and that’s been because of one team - Dallas. The Stars have toppled Colorado (who was my pick to win the Stanley Cup) and Vegas to make their first Stanley Cup Finals since 2000. To say I am in shock that they were able to oust the top two seeds in the West would be putting it mildly. It’s not just that Dallas has been outshot this postseason. They’ve been outscored as well (64-63!). They are an extremely fortunate 4-0 in overtime games, which has been key. Every win in the Western Conference Finals was by a single goal and three of the last five wins have been in OT. Vegas outshot them badly, yet it somehow didn’t matter. In the past, I’ve written how the Stars’ scoring was due to regress (and it has). They scored just nine goals in the five games vs. the Golden Knights. In the close out game, they were down 2-0 entering the third period. Thankfully, here comes Tampa Bay to hopefully put an end to this Dallas’ madness. The Lightning have rolled through the last three rounds, dropping only four games in the process. Of course, they are 0-2 vs. the Stars this season with both losses coming in OT. But unlike a season ago, the ‘Ning have saved their best hockey for when it matters most. Steven Stamkos likely won’t play in Game 1, but that’s okay as Brayden Point is off the injured list. Stars goalie Anton Khudobin cannot possibly maintain his .950 save percentage from the last series. 8* Tampa Bay |
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09-15-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -170 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): This marks the first time I’ve played a game in the series and I’m checking in just in time to catch the Lightning close out the clearly overmatched Islanders. While New York was allowing the fewest number of goals per game since the restart, that was before running into the Tampa Bay juggernaut, which has scored 17 goals in the four games thus far. In retrospect, Game 1 was an ominous sign when the Isles were whipped 8-2. That made it pretty clear this series wasn’t going long and look for TB to close it out in five. Although they’ve yet to finish off this series, you have to consider Tampa Bay the favorite to win the Stanley Cup right now. They’ve been incredibly impressive so far in the bubble, going 13-4 SU overall and never losing B2B games. After a bit of a slow start offensively, they are now back to averaging 3.4 goals per game since the restart, which is right in line with their season average. That they’ve increased their scoring against what had been the league’s best defensive team is very impressive. The Islanders simply lack the firepower to keep up here. Their top line has combined for just one single point in the L3 games and it was an assist from Matthew Barzal. In the team’s three losses in this series, the Isles have scored only four goals. The 5-3 win in Game 3 looks to be a total aberration as the Lightning have been in control of this series from the start. It doesn’t help matters that TB is 21-7 SU this season when coming off a win by 2+ goals. 10* Tampa Bay |
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09-14-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -169 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -169 | 35 h 35 m | Show |
8* Vegas (8:05 ET): I feel I’ve already beaten this into the ground, but Dallas continuing to win this postseason just shocks me. They were on the verge of falling down 3-1 in the series with Calgary, but came back to win that series. They were decided underdogs in the last series with Colorado, yet won in seven games. It’s been more of the same with Vegas in the Western Conference Finals, which the Stars now lead 3-1 despite having been an underdog every game. Tonight will mark the 12th consecutive game in which Dallas has been a dog on the ML. The Stars scored 42 goals in the 10 games prior to this series getting underway. Vegas did a good job slowing them down in the first three games (just 4 goals allowed) before falling apart in the second period of Game 4 (lost 2-1). Despite losing on the scoreboard, the Golden Knights have looked like the better team in both Games 3 & 4 in which they outshot Dallas 40-23 and 33-20. The last game was particularly frustrating as Vegas led 1-0 and had outshot the Stars 23-9 when they shockingly allowed B2B goals. This is just the 2nd time in the bubble that Vegas has dropped two in a row. The other came in the last series against Vancouver when they lost Games 5 & 6. They responded with a 3-0 shutout in Game 7, saving their season. They’ll now need to win three in a row to save the season, but I definitely think they’ll get this one. They are the better team. Both teams have six goals in the series, Dallas getting theirs on far fewer shot attempts. This isn’t sustainable. The Golden Knights are 11-3 SU after scoring 2 goals or less the previous game. 8* Vegas |
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09-12-20 | Golden Knights -160 v. Stars | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* Vegas (8:10 ET): The Golden Knights seemingly did everything right in Game 3, with the exception of winning on the scoreboard. They outshot Dallas 40-23, which should theoretically translate into an easy victory. But instead it was a 3-2 loss in overtime with goalie Robin Lehner uncharacteristically letting in two weak goals during regulation. Dallas is now 3-0 in OT games this postseason, which certainly feels a bit “lucky,” while Vegas now trails in a series for the 1st time this postseason. The Knights have only lost B2B games once in the bubble, that coming in the last series to Vancouver when they were already up 3-1. It’s their “turn” to win tonight. As they’ve done most of the postseason, Vegas has dominated the puck the L2 games. They had the big edge in shots in Game 3 and it was 32-24 in their Game 2 shutout win (3-0). They are averaging nearly 12 more shots per game than their opponents throughout the playoffs. An 18-shot third period on Thursday seemed like they were constantly on the verge of taking the lead, but alas it was for naught. But if Vegas dominates the puck again here (which I think they will), then they are likely to be victorious. It’s impressive enough that the Golden Knights are 4-1 off a loss since the restart. But three of those four wins have been shutouts! I’ve previously discussed how Dallas has predictably seen its offensive numbers start to dwindle. The lowest scoring team of the eight conference semifinalists came into this series having scored 42 goals in its L10 games. But they’ve been held to just three in regulation in the three games vs. Vegas thus far. The Stars have not only been outshot this postseason, they’ve actually been outscored! The fact they’ve been an underdog in 10 straight games while Vegas has yet to be a dog in the playoffs already made this a strange Conference Final. The fact Dallas is winning is even stranger. Vegas all the way, here. 10* Vegas |
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09-10-20 | Golden Knights -165 v. Stars | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
8* Vegas (8:05 ET): Both the Golden Knights and Stars are just 2-3 SU their L5 games as each “blew” a 3-1 series lead in the last round (both won Game 7’s obviously) and have then split the first two games here, each winning via shutout. As I’d been projecting for a while now, the Stars’ offense has begun to regress. Coming into Western Conference Finals, they’d scored 42 goals in the L10 games. They’ve been held to just 1 goal in two games by a Vegas side that now has posted FOUR shutouts in its L9 games. Part of the reason I was so adamant that the Stars’ goal-scoring was about to go down was that they were the lowest-scoring team (in the regular season) among the eight conference semifinalists. They were actually among the lowest scoring teams invited to the bubble. Consider that they have more 5+ goal games here in Edmonton than they did the entire regular season. The team’s shooting percentage had also been unusually high coming into this series and was due to regress. What is clear is that Vegas has a much better goaltending situation than Colorado, Dallas’ opponent in the previous round. While the Golden Knights have had their own issues scoring in this series, they shouldn’t need many to prevail again here in this critical Game 3. They have done a great job outshooting their opponents this postseason. I should also point out that tonight marks the 10th consecutive game that Dallas has been an underdog on the money line. It’s a bit shocking they’ve even made it thus far. Meanwhile, Vegas has been favored in every game since the actual playoffs began, typically in this price range or even higher. 8* Vegas |
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09-08-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -146 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
10* Vegas (8:05 ET): I had the Under in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals (which was an easy winner), but still I was surprised to see the favored Golden Knights get shut out. Still, they did the job defensively (which I had expected), holding the Stars to only 1 goal. That’s no small feat considering how much scoring we’ve seen from Dallas in the playoffs. But it’s a scoring explosion I fully expect will subside in this series considering they have more 5+ goal games in the postseason than they did the entire regular season! Vegas should bounce back offensively in this one. They get Ryan Reaves back from a Game 1 suspension. They are also 9-4 SU this season after scoring 1 goal or less in the previous game. For the most part, the Golden Knights have been outstanding at puck possession in the postseason, outshooting the opposition by a 36.4 to 24.7 per game average. Dallas is allowing 3.3 goals per game since the restart, which is actually more than they have scored themselves. They’ve also been outshot. The Stars were the lowest scoring team in the regular season among the eight conference semifinalists, but shockingly scored 42 goals in the 10 games prior to this series getting underway. But now they are facing a team that posted THREE shutouts in its last series and is obviously MUCH better between the pipes then Colorado was. Dallas is now an underdog for the NINTH consecutive game while Vegas has been -150 or higher for every game since the 1st round began. The Golden Knights bounce back here. 10* Vegas |
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09-06-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10* Under Stars/Golden Knights (8:05 ET): There are still only 29 teams in NHL history to rally back and win a best of 7 series in which it trailed 3-1. This despite THREE teams forcing Game 7’s in the last round after falling behind 3-1. Two of the teams that were able to stave off infamy meet here in the Western Conference Finals. There was a big difference though in the last round as Vegas was a big favorite in every game whereas Dallas was an underdog in all 7 games. That would certainly seem to indicate the Golden Knights have the advantage in this series, but I am more interested in the total here in Game 1. Coming off a wild series with Colorado where six of the seven games went Over, Dallas could very well see its scoring start to subside here against the top seed in the Western Conference. The Stars were the lowest scoring team in the regular season among the eight conference semifinalists, but have shockingly scored 42 goals in the L10 games. But now they are facing a team that posted THREE shutouts in its last series and is obviously MUCH better between the pipes thanks to the combo of Robin Lehner and Marc-Andre Fleury. While posting three shutouts of their own against Vancouver, the Golden Knights got blanked themselves in Game 6 of that series and have scored a total of only four goals in their last three games. They’ll be missing Ryan Reaves (suspension) for his hit in Game 7 Friday. Vegas actually went 98 straight shots w/o a goal against Vancouver in Games 6 & 7. They trailed Dallas 3-1 in the third period when they met in the round robin earlier in the bubble. Game 1 will be low-scoring. 10* Under Stars/Golden Knights |
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09-04-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -129 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -129 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
10* Colorado (Time TBD): The start time of this game is dependent on whether or not Vancouver can also force a Game 7. If the Canucks win Thursday, then they and Vegas will also play a Game 7 Friday. Colorado has forced this Game 7 situation in dramatic fashion, coming back from a 3-1 series deficit. Of course, the Avalanche have also been favored in every game in this series. That they were down 3-1 in the first place seemed a bit head-scratching. I’ve taken them before in this series, feel strongly that they are the better team here and will thus play Game 7 accordingly. I had the Under in Game 6, which the Avs won 4-1. It was Dallas’ lowest-scoring game of the series. Meanwhile, the Avs have now scored 4+ goals in four straight games as well as in six of the last eight. They’ve outshot the Stars for the series. Dallas’ scoring was always due to come down. Consider they have more 5+ goal games here in the bubble than they did the entire regular season prior to the shutdown! Going into Game 6, the Stars’ shooting percentage for this series was nearly double their regular season average. Colorado has a slew of injuries, the latest coming last game to Gabe Landeskog. They’re also down to their third goaltender, Michael Hutchinson. But Hutchinson seems to be the solution rather than the problem. He is only the 7th goaltender in playoff history to win his first two starts when facing elimination. Meanwhile, Dallas has nothing but uncertainty between the pipes. Ben Bishop was infamously chased in Game 5 and Anton Khudobin has an .876 save percentage his L4 starts. Their top line has just 1 pt the L2 games. 10* Colorado |
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09-02-20 | Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 107 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Avalanche/Stars (8:05 ET): So the Avs aren’t dead yet as a historic scoring stretch in Game 5 kept them alive to fight another day. It was 5-0 by the end of the 1st period Monday with four of those goals scored on Ben Bishop, who got the surprise start for the Stars. Five different players scored and four of the goals came within 2:36 of each other. That was the second fastest four-goal flurry by one team in NHL Playoff history. The final score ended up being 6-3. Both teams made surprise changes in goal for Game 5. Colorado started Michael Hutchinson in place of Pavel Francouz, who had struggled in the series. Hutchinson made 31 saves and almost certainly will be starting Game 6. Remember what I’ve been saying about Dallas all along. Their stunning scoring surge will almost certainly subside. They have as many 5+ goal games here in the bubble as they did the entire regular season. They’re shooting 14.0% in the series, nearly double the season average (8.8%) when they were the lowest scoring of the eight conference semifinalists. Whether Dallas goes with Bishop or Anton Khudobin, they won’t be hit like they were in Game 5.The Stars are 14-8 Under this season after giving up 4+ goals the previous game and 12-6 Under following a loss by two or more goals. While every game in this series has gone Over, the stakes are now higher and I expect a “tighter” game. We’re due for an Under. 10* Under Avalanche/Stars |
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09-01-20 | Islanders v. Flyers +109 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 109 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
9* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Things have taken a drastic turn here for the top-seeded Flyers who are down 3-1 in the series and now underdogs in Game 5. Another loss would obviously mean they’re done and what a shock that would be considering how hot they were prior to facing the Islanders. After sweeping the round robin games (to earn the #1 seed in the East), they’d won 12 of 13 going back to February and had the league’s best overall record since mid-January. They eliminated Montreal in six games in Round 1. But the Islanders are now the East’s “new” hot team. They are 10-3 here in the bubble as they needed just four games to oust Florida in the qualification series, five to get rid of Washington in the last round and now stand one win away from the franchise’s 1st Conference Finals since 1993. What’s amazing is that the Isles had lost their last seven games when the season was halted back in March. They had a -1 goal differential for the season. This will be the first time in the bubble that the Flyers are coming off B2B losses and the first time it’s happened since a four-game losing streak in early January. Note the consecutive losses came on B2B days following some time off for the protests. Now they are rested and fighting for their playoff lives. They are 40-18 L58 times playing on 1 days rest. Don’t be surprised if the Islanders tighten up a bit. 9* Philadelphia |
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08-31-20 | Stars v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Stars/Avalanche (9:45 ET): Needless to say, the way this series is going has left me perplexed. I viewed Colorado as the vastly superior side coming in. Not even injuries to goalie Philipp Grubauer and Erik Johnson changed my view. Especially since it was backup Pavel Francouz that led the way in a 4-0 shutout of Dallas back in the round robin. But that result and performance by Francouz appear to have been an anomaly. The Avs are down 3-1 to the Stars in this series (facing elimination tonight) and just 2-7 against them this season. Every game in this series has gone Over with the fewest number of total goals scored in any game being 7. Last night saw the Stars jump out to an early 3-0 lead before the Avalanche even got a single shot on goal (despite two power play opportunities). From there things tightened up as the Avs were able to get within one goal two different times, though the last was with just four seconds remaining and it ended up being a 5-4 loss. At this point, it’s obvious that Francouz is a problem for the Avalanche. But there is no other solution other than to stick with him. Tonight marks the first back to back of the series and I wonder if that will have a more negative effect on the skaters as opposed to the two goaltenders. Dallas can’t keep scoring at the rate they have been (they had the fewest number of regular season goals among the eight conference semifinalists) and we’re long overdue for an Under. This is the 1st time in the bubble either team has seen a total of 6.0. 10* Under Stars/Avalanche |
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08-30-20 | Avalanche -130 v. Stars | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
10* Colorado (6:05 ET): I was absolutely floored that the Avalanche were down 0-2 in this series. Not only did I consider them overwhelming favorites to advance past the Stars, I also had them on my short list to win the Stanley Cup! Thankfully, they bounced back with a commanding 6-4 win in Game 3. They're now one win away from evening this series back up at 2-2 and I believe that's what's going to happen Sunday evening. Also shocking was HOW Dallas has won the first two games. They scored five goals in both. Over the L6 games, they have have scored 5+ goals FOUR times. For a frame of reference, this team scored 5+ goals only three times in its 69 regular season games! Of the eight conference semifinalists, no team had scored fewer goals this year. This six-game run (28 goals scored) has come on the heels of them being 12 seconds away from being down 3-1 in the series with a bad Calgary team. I think the Stars run of scoring more than expected is due to come to an end tonight. In just the last five games, they have scored on 15.3% of all shot attempts, which is beyond unsustainable. The Avs are without Philipp Grubauer, but I continue to point to the fact that backup Pavel Francouz shut the Stars out when these teams met in the round robin. This is the cheapest that the Avs have been on the money line for any game in this series. I'll grab them. 10* Colorado |
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08-29-20 | Golden Knights -194 v. Canucks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
8* Vegas (9:45 ET): I’m 2 for 2 in this series. I had the Under in Game 1 (5-0 Vegas win) and then took Vancouver +1.5 in Game 2 (they won “outright” 5-2). That Vegas was able to blank the Canucks in Game 1 didn’t surprise me. I wrote the following in my analysis before the series opener … “One thing about Vancouver that sticks out to me is the fact they have scored on 12.1% of their shot attempts so far. That seems unsustainable.” Sure enough, I was correct (at least for Game 1).. Though I took Vancouver on the puck line for Game 2 and gave them a very good shot at winning, you can imagine my surprise when they blitzed the Golden Knights for five goals of their own. It was 2-0 just 11 minutes in and from there the Canucks never let up, particularly dominating face-offs (which they are known to do). They also blocked 40 shots, just one shy of the NHL playoff record for a game ending in regulation. Vegas had a 40-27 edge in shots on goal in Game 2, so they shouldn’t hang their heads too much. Getting back to all the blocked shots, the Golden Knights had an incredible 50-11 edge in shot attempts in the second period alone! It was the first time in 12 meetings they lost to the Canucks in regulation (9-1-2 all-time head to head record). The Knights have also yet to drop B2B games this postseason and have scored 4+ goals in 7 of their 10 games. They are a big favorite here for a reason and won’t drop two in a row. 8* Vegas |
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08-26-20 | Avalanche -138 v. Stars | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
10* Colorado (10:35 ET): I am absolutely floored that the Avalanche are down 0-2 in this series. Not only did I consider them overwhelming favorites to advance past the Stars, I also had them on my short list to win the Stanley Cup. Hoisting the Cup is now the furthest thing from the players’ minds as all they are looking for is one win right now. I believe they’ll get that win tonight. I realize I said the same thing prior to both Games 1 & 2, but the “third time will be the charm.” Also shocking is HOW Dallas has won the first two games. They’ve scored five goals in both. The Stars have won five in a row, including FOUR 5+ goal games. For a frame of reference, this team scored 5+ goals only three times in its 69 regular season games. Of the eight conference semifinalists, no team had scored fewer goals this year. This five-game run (24 goals scored) has been on the heels of them being 12 seconds away from being down 3-1 in the series with a bad Calgary team. Like I said earlier, I am absolutely floored here. Colorado continues to play without Philipp Grubauer and Erik Johnson. I don’t think it’s fair to pin the flood of Dallas goals on Grubauer’s absence. Backup Pavel Francouz is capable of beating the Stars as he shut them out, 4-0, in the round robin game. The Avs were up 2-0 in Game 2 when all of sudden things started to go very wrong with the Stars getting TWO goals 43 seconds apart (on a 5 on 3) and then there was a controversial goal allowed near the end of the period. The Avs outshot the Stars 40-27 in Game 2 and I still think they are the better team here. 10* Colorado |
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08-25-20 | Canucks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
8* PUCK LINE Vancouver (9:45 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am backing the Canucks +1.5. Vancouver lost Game 1, 5-0, so everyone is discounting them heading into Game 2. As much as Vegas has “looked the part” of a top seed so far this postseason, they have had their fair share of close calls with half their wins coming by one goal. They also had to come back from multi-goal deficits to defeat both St. Louis and Dallas in the round robin format. Chicago was clearly overmatched in the last round. I had the Under in Game 1 as I (correctly) predicted that the Canucks would soon see a downturn in scoring. Sure enough, they were shut out. They came into this series having scored on 12.1% of their shot attempts so far, which is unsustainable. Still I expect them to play a lot better in Game 2. If you recall, the Canucks were blanked in Game 1 of the qualification series against Minnesota. They bounced back with a 4-3 win in Game 2 and went on to win seven of their next nine games with one of the two losses coming by one goal. As noted in the Game 1 analysis, Vancouver can be stingy too. I can’t see Vegas continuing to average almost 4.0 goals per game here in the bubble as they’re facing Jacob Markstrom, who held St. Louis scoreless for 80+ minutes across the final two games of that series. Not since the first two games (both of which they trailed in) has Vegas won B2B games by more than one goal. 8* Vancouver +1.5 |
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08-24-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -160 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -160 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
10* Colorado (9:45 ET): I was absolutely shocked at the result in Game 1 of this series. Not only because the heavily favored Avalanche lost, but also due to the fact they gave up five goals. Dallas is not known as any kind of offensive juggernaut. In fact, of the eight remaining teams, they scored the fewest number of regular season goals. However, all of a sudden, they have scored 5+ goals in four of their last six games. I don’t see that continuing though and the Avs (the much better team here) will come through with a big ‘W’ in Game 2. Coming into the playoffs, Colorado was a team I’d earmarked for success due to the fact they led all Western Conference teams with a +46 goal differential when the season was paused back in March. They’d lost just one time in regulation (Game 3 to Arizona) here in the bubble before losing Saturday. They bounced back from that previous regulation defeat with back to back 7-1 wins. You may recall that in the round robin format, I took the Avs when they played Dallas and that was a 4-0 win. It’s very surprising to me that 4-0 win in the round robin is Colorado’s only win in five tries vs. Dallas this season. The Avs - by the numbers - are the much better side in this series. Coming into the series, their 3.88 goals per game average and their 1.63 gpg allowed average were both league bests since the restart. Goalie Philipp Grubauer was sporting a .953 save percentage. That he’s injured doesn’t matter as it was Pavel Francouz that shut the Stars out in the round robin. The Stars got to play a weak Calgary team in the last round and I remain unsold. This is a big play for me. 10* Colorado |
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08-23-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 104 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Canucks/Golden Knights (10:35 ET): Game 1 of this best of seven goes down Sunday with the top seeded Golden Knights taking on the fourth seeded Canucks. Vancouver started out as a 10-seed in this bubble, but has worked its way up by upsetting Minnesota and St. Louis. Even though they just eliminated last year’s Stanley Cup Champions, this series will be a far taller climb for the Canucks as Vegas is rolling right now with seven wins in their eight games since the restart. One thing about Vancouver that sticks out to me is the fact they have scored on 12.1% of their shot attempts so far. That seems unsustainable. Vegas is doing a tremendous job at limiting the number of shots their opponents get, allowing only 25.2 per game here in the bubble. I don’t think Vancouver can expect to score as many goals in this series compared to the previous two. The Canucks can play some defense though. For more than 80 minutes across Games 5 & 6, they held the Blues w/o a goal as goalie Jacob Markstrom made 45 saves. The Golden Knights have scored 4+ goals in all but two of their games, a pace they simply cannot continue. 10* Under Canucks/Golden Knights |
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08-22-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -160 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10* Colorado (8:05 ET): So the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs gets underway on Saturday. Colorado was already a team I’d earmarked for success this postseason due to the fact they led all Western Conference teams with a +46 goal differential when the season was paused back in March. They’ve lost just one time (Game 3 to Arizona) in regulation here in the bubble and since then they’ve won two straight in 7-1 fashion. You may recall that in the round robin format, I took the Avs when they played Dallas and that was a 4-0 win. I see no reason to expect the Avalanche to slow down anytime soon. Their 3.88 goals per game average as well as their 1.63 gpg allowed average are both league bests since the restart. Goalie Philipp Grubauer is sporting a .953 save percentage and he wasn’t even the one that shut the Stars out back on August 5th (that was Pavel Francouz). I think that right now you have to consider the Avs as the Stanley Cup favorites. Dallas did win all four regular season matchups with Colorado, but that meant nothing in the game 17 days ago and means even less now. The Stars had lost eight straight games (going back to March) when they beat St. Louis 2-1 on August 9th (on three days rest). Then they got to face a weak Calgary team in the first round. The quicker turnaround between series (just 1 day as opposed to 2 for Colorado) does them no favors. The Stars simply lack the firepower necessary to keep up with the high-flying Avs, who have four wins by three goals or more in the bubble. Dallas’ seven-goal outburst in the close out game vs. Calgary, where they had to rally from a three-goal deficit, was a total anomaly. 10* Colorado |
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08-21-20 | Flyers -130 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Flyers get a second chance to put away the Canadiens on Friday. They failed to do so in Game 5 where they lost 5-3. For the most part, they’ve kept the Habs in check offensively in this series. In the three wins, they’ve posted two shutouts and allowed just one goal overall. But in both losses, they’ve been scored on five times. Seems to me that Montreal would be better served “saving” some of these goals for other games. As good as Carey Price has been in goal for them, the Habs are a 12-seed and they go home after tonight. Going back to mid-January, Philadelphia has been the hottest team in the league. Wednesday marked just the second loss in the bubble for the Flyers, who earned the top seed in the Eastern Conference by sweeping their round robin games. In the six wins, they’ve allowed a total of just four goals. In the two losses to Montreal, that number jumps to 10. Interestingly enough, the Flyers also had their highest scoring game of the series in Game 5 with all three goals coming from the power play. They’ve only scored eight times in this series, but remember they had 10 goals in the three round-robin games. Price is obviously the main reason Montreal has made it thus far. He has a .943 save percentage in the bubble with a pair of shutouts. However, Carter Hart of Philadelphia has an ever so slightly better save percentage (.944) and his two shutouts have both been in this series. The Habs won’t have Brandon Gallagher anymore as he suffered a broken jaw in Game 5. Meanwhile, the Flyers have won the L6 times they have been off a game in which they allowed 5+ goals. 10* Philadelphia |
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08-18-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -185 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
6* Vegas (10:35 ET): After failing in their first try to do so, look for Vegas to finish off Chicago Tuesday night. Game 4 was the Golden Knights first loss since the restart. Granted they’d been “living dangerously” in a few of the wins, but they are clearly the more talented side here compared to the 12th seeded Blackhawks, a team that was in last place of the Central Division when the season was paused back in March. The fact Vegas outshot Chicago 49-25 in Game 4 should not be overlooked. "When they've been better than us, they've been way better than us," said Chicago coach Jeremy Colliton in reference to the Golden Knights. That about sums up the series to me. As good as Blackhawks’ goalie Corey Crawford (48 saves) was Sunday night, he’s not going to be able to bail his team out of this series hole. Vegas hasn’t even scored a power play goal in the series yet, going 0 for 9 when on the man advantage. They’ve outshot their opponents in five of seven games so far, often holding large advantages. Since coming into existence three years ago, Vegas has had Chicago’s number. They’ve won 11 of the 13 all-time head to head matchups. Again, this was a real fortunate draw for the Golden Knights. By sweeping their round robin games, they earned the #1 seed and drew the #12 seed. Vegas is 7-1 SU when coming off a game where they scored two or fewer goals. 6* Vegas |
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08-17-20 | Bruins -124 v. Hurricanes | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:05 ET): The “demise” of the Bruins has clearly been exaggerated. While they did lose all three round robin games, it can’t be forgotten that no team had more points when the season was paused back in March. They made the Stanley Cup Finals last year AND had the 2020 season’s best goal differential. Judging them based on a three-game sample size would be a mistake. Boston now leads this best of seven series with Carolina 2 games to 1 after taking Game 3 by a score of 3-1. While Carolina came into this series on a real “high” (swept the Rangers in the qualification round), the Bruins have definitely had their number the last few seasons. The Hurricanes have only been able to win two of the previous 14 head to head meetings and that includes the victory in Game 2 of this series. Boston has outshot the Canes’ substantially in this series (+30), holding an edge of at least +9 in every game. Obviously, the big story moving forward for Boston is how do they handle the loss of goalie Tuukka Rask, who decided to opt out of the rest of the season. Rask is a big loss, but backup Jaroslav Halak came in and played very well in Game 3. As big of a deal as Rask opting out is, Carolina potentially losing Andrei Svechnikov for the rest of the series may very well be bigger given the Hurricanes have less depth compared to the Bruins. 10* Boston |
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08-16-20 | Blues -124 v. Canucks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (10:35 ET): Forget about repeating, the Blues’ season is on the brink right now as they find themselves in an 0-2 series hole to Vancouver. The Blues are the ONLY team in the league not to have won a game since the restart and another loss tonight would all but end their hopes of B2B Stanley Cups. I’m going to keep the faith one last time with this club as Vancouver has been scoring at an unsustainable rate thus far in the bubble. I’m banking that can’t continue. The Canucks were shutout in their first game by Minnesota, losing 3-0. Since then, they have averaged 4.2 goals and won all five games. But what’s crazy about their scoring average is that they are getting off only 27.0 shots per game, which is among the lowest numbers in the entire bubble! The shooting percentage in those L5 games is a ridiculous 15.6%. They just can’t keep doing that. The Blues’ Game 2 loss was the second time in five games they lost in overtime. Another loss came at the buzzer (literally) of regulation while another saw them lose a two-goal lead. That they were able to fight back in the third period and force OT Friday should be taken as a positive sign. I just feel that they are due to breakthrough for a win here. 8* St. Louis |
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08-15-20 | Lightning v. Blue Jackets OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* Over Lightning/Blue Jackets (7:35 ET): Tampa Bay got off 37 shots in Game 2, but could only score one goal. They also outhit the Blue Jackets, but still lost 3-1. This series is now tied at one game apiece. It was a five overtime marathon in Game 1 (I backed the Lightning there). Game 2, I had the Over, which was looking good after the first period three goals were scored. Unfortunately, we know how things ended up. Time to double down on the Over here even though no TB game has gone that way so far. The Lightning were one of the highest scoring teams in the league this year at 3.4 goals per game. They’ve scored three goals in all three wins since the restart, but been held to only one in both losses. I think they are due to bounce back offensively in Game 3. At the same time, they have allowed multiple goals in every game since returning. With the exception of being shutout by Toronto in Game 2 of that series, Columbus has scored multiple goals in every game since the restart. I’m counting on both sides scoring multiple goals here and if that happens we can obviously do no worse than a push. I do not think Joonas Korpisalo can possibly maintain his .962 save percentage in the bubble. 10* Over Lightning/Blue Jackets |
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08-14-20 | Canucks v. Blues -140 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (6:35 ET): The Blues are in desperate need of a win Friday, something they have not done going all the way back to March 11th. They dropped all three games in the round-robin format, causing them to drop from the 1-seed to the 4-seed. Then they lost Game 1 to the Canucks by a score of 5-2. They are the only team still playing yet to win a game in the bubble. With their backs against the wall, I like their chances of “circling the wagons” for Game 2 and picking up the victory. The disturbing trend for the Blues here in Edmonton has been their play in the third period. They have been outscored 9-0 in the 3P of the four games including 3-0 by the Canucks on Wednesday. Prior to that, they’d lost a game to Colorado at the buzzer, blew a multi-goal lead to Vegas and lost in a shootout to Dallas. So they’ve been in every game. It should be noted that the Blues have never lost more than four in a row all season. The last losing streak to go longer than that was in February of 2018. Goalie Jordan Binnington had an 8-2 record w/ a 1.78 goals against average and .937 save percentage off a loss in LY’s playoff run (which of course resulted in the Blues winning the Stanley Cup). Vancouver’s shooting percentage so far is 12.3%, which is really high and isn’t likely to continue. Knowing that teams who take the first two games go on to win the series over 86% of the time, the Blues basically have to win today. They will. 10* St. Louis |
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08-14-20 | Canadiens v. Flyers OVER 5 | Top | 5-0 | Push | 0 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
10* Over Canadiens/Flyers (3:05 ET): Top-seeded Philadelphia is not only 4-0 since play resumed, they’ve also gone Under in all four games. They’ve allowed a total of just four goals, exactly one in every game. Game 1 of this best of seven series saw them prevail 2-1 after answering a Montreal goal w/ one of their own just 16 seconds later. As hot as the respective goaltenders have been this postseason, expect regression from one or both here in Game 2, which I’ve got going Over the total. Philadelphia’s Carter Hart has been lights out in his three starts here in the bubble. He’s saved 84 of 87 shots, good for a .966 save percentage. That’s even better than Montreal’s Carey Price, who has started every game for Montreal (no surprise there) and has a .945 save percentage after stopping 155 of 164 shots. As impressive as those numbers are from the two goaltenders, I just don’t see them being maintained over the long playoff haul. The Flyers average 3.4 goals per game this season, but worrisome is that they allowed 3.3 outside of Philly. The Habs have allowed an average of 33.0 shots per game since the restart. I just feel that we’re due for an Over this afternoon. Each team’s power play is due to pick it up after notching a goal in Game 1. They’d previously been a combined 0 for 23 with the man advantage coming into this series. You know that won’t last. 10* Over Canadiens/Flyers |
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08-13-20 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
10* Over Blue Jackets/Lightning (3:05 ET): The Lightning have been one of the highest scoring teams in the league over the last three years, but they’ve yet to see a single Over since the start, going 4-0 Under. Still I’m not sure that’s even on their minds right now after a 5OT win over Columbus in Game 1 Tuesday. That win was huge for TB as they were shockingly swept by the Blue Jackets in the 1st Rd of LY’s playoffs. Losing a game of that length would have been extremely confidence-crushing for the higher seed. Every Lightning game thus far has seen a total of five goals scored. They have three victories by a count of 3-2 and their lone defeat (to Philadelphia) was by a score of 4-1. But oddsmakers have dipped the O/U line down to 5.0 for Game 2 and that’s a real key for me. Despite not having either Steven Stamkos or Victor Hedman in the lineup, TB got off a playoff-record 88 shots in Game 1. As good as Joonas Korpisalo has been since the restart, being under that kind of fire will take it out of a goalie. Columbus, who has gone Under in four of six games so far, has basically played six games in the last four days. That’s brutal and you have to wonder if fatigue could start to become a factor at some point. Still, you shouldn’t discount a Blue Jackets side that’s scored 12 times in its last four games and has yet to lose B2B times. They had 60+ shots on goal in Game 1. The Over is 7-2-1 the L10 times the Blue Jackets have played on one day’s rest. 10* Over Blue Jackets/Lightning |
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08-12-20 | Coyotes v. Avalanche -175 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
10* Colorado (5:30 ET): I just don’t see Arizona as being capable of making this into a competitive series. Thus, I’ll be backing the Avalanche here in Game 1. I’ve previously espoused the virtues of the Avs many times. While they failed to come through for me Saturday against Vegas, a loss which cost them the #1 seed in the Western Conference, they did get the job done against Dallas in 4-0 fashion. They went 2-0-1 in the round robin format, outshooting and out-possessing each opponent. They are, at least on paper, the West’s best team. The Coyotes entered the playoffs as an 11-seed. I did think they got a favorable draw in the qualification series with Nashville, whom they ousted in just four games. It was the franchise’s first series win since 2012. That it came right after their GM abandoned them had to feel good. But the ‘Yotes are in over their head now in the Round of 16. Of all 12 playoff teams in the Western side of the draw, they scored the second fewest goals (ahead of only Dallas). The key to the series for Arizona is going to be goalie Darcy Keumper, who was lights out against the Predators. He had a .933 save percentage in the four games, pretty remarkable considering he faced 163 shots. That was the most shots faced by any goalie in the previous round. Unfortunately for Keumper, Colorado averaged 37.7 shots/game in the round-robin and they led the Western Conf in goals during the regular season. Arizona allowed 11 goals in four games last round while the Avs allowed just five in three games. 10* Colorado |
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08-11-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -190 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
6* Vegas (10:35 ET): Chicago has taken full advantage of the NHL’s 24-team bubble. Making the playoffs is something that would NOT have happened under ordinary circumstances. After all, the Blackhawks were in last place in the Central at the time of the stoppage. But by taking three of four from Edmonton in the qualification series, here they are in the Round of 16. But all that earned them was a date with now top-seeded Vegas and unlike Edmonton, the Golden Knights are hitting their stride at the right time. One could also say the Knights have taken advantage of this unique format. While they were leading the Pacific Division at the time of the stoppage, they would not have been the West’s #1 overall seed. They are now though, thanks to going 3-0 in round robin play. They averaged 5.0 goals in the three wins. Another thing worth noting is how the Golden Knights have terrorized the Blackhawks throughout their existence. They’ve won 9 of 10 all-time meetings. The Blackhawks are a 12-seed that probably shouldn’t be here. They had just 72 points. That’s the fewest of any team left with the exception of Montreal, the original 12-seed from the East that can at least claim a top tier goaltender. Here in the playoffs, they’ve been outshot. Not the case with Vegas, who is only allowing 26.3 shots per game since the restart. Keep in mind that the Knights swept their round robin games despite not having the services of Max Pacioretty, who led the team in goals/points in the reg season. He’s now expected back for Game 1. 6* Vegas |
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08-11-20 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning -165 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
7* Tampa Bay (3:05 ET): Some will consider this a “nightmare” matchup for the Lightning as they face the team that shockingly swept them in the 1st round of LY’s playoffs. That would be Columbus, who outlasted Toronto in a wild five-game qualification series to get here. Tampa Bay had the chance to be the East’s top seed for a third year in a row, but lost 4-1 to Philadelphia on Saturday, setting up the matchup here. The Lightning should be highly motivated coming into this series. When they faced Columbus in last year’s playoffs, they were coming off a historically great regular season, which made the four-game sweep all the more head-scratching. This has obviously been a much different season. Still, TB had the 2nd most points and was in position to earn the top seed. They won their first two round-robin games by 3-2 scores over Washington and Boston and did so w/o Steven Stamkos. When Stamkos will return to the ice remains a question mark and now defenseman Victor Hedman is out as well after sustaining a lower-body injury during the loss to Philly. This is hardly ideal when going into a pressure-filled matchup, but I think the Lightning take care of business in Game 1. Columbus had to play five games against Toronto. They got great goaltending in that series, but TB led the league in goals during the regular season. The Blue Jackets actually had a negative goal differential (-7) this year. 7* Tampa Bay |
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08-09-20 | Stars v. Blues -133 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (3:05 ET): Saturday determined the 1-seeds in the respective conferences, but Sunday is all about who gets seeded 3rd and 4th. In the West, St. Louis and Dallas have each opened 0-2. With all the upsets that transpired over in the qualification series, even the loser here is going to get a weaker than expected Round of 16 playoff opponent. It comes down to the simple fact that I think the Blues are the better team. St. Louis came into the bubble having finished first in the regular season with 94 points, two more than Colorado and eight more than Vegas, the two teams that will play Saturday to determine the #1 seed. Losses to the Avs (2-1) and Golden Knights (6-4) mean the Blues can finish no higher than 3rd when the playoffs get going proper. Worth noting that the loss to the Avs came at the buzzer and then the Blues led the Golden Knights 2-0 early in the 2nd period. So being 0-2 is a tough pill to swallow. As for Dallas, they too blew a multi-goal lead to Vegas (ended up losing 5-3) and then were shutout by the Avalanche 4-0. This was one of the coldest teams in the league at the time of the shutdown. They’re actually now on an 8-game losing streak going back to March. The Stars’ goal differential for the season is now negative while the Blues can still claim to be +29. I concede that St. Louis hasn’t looked great in either game and Vladimir Tarasenko’s injury is a concern. But they’ve taken six of the last seven meetings w/ Dallas, who isn’t in the same league as either Colorado or Vegas. 8* St. Louis |
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08-08-20 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -112 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -112 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
10* Colorado (3:05 ET): It’s important to note that the official start time of this game is still being worked out. It’s contingent on the results of Friday and how many (if any) qualification series are still ongoing. Regardless of WHEN the puck drops, I like the Avalanche in this battle for the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Both they and the Golden Knights are 2-0. But Vegas has had to come back from multi-goal deficits in both games. Colorado had the “buzzer-beater” against St. Louis, but then turned in a dominant 4-0 win over Dallas on Wednesday, which was another game where we backed the Avs. In position to grab the top seed in the West, one could argue the Avs are deserving of being in this spot. They owned the best goal differential among Western Conference teams before the lockdown (+46). League-wide, only the Bruins and Lightning outscored their opponents by a wider margin. The Avs have also been an exceptional road team all year long with a league-best 26-11-2 SU record (including the bubble). They've had an extra day to prepare for this all-important showdown as well. The underdog is 4-0 SU the past four head-to-head meetings between these two clubs. Unfortunately for Vegas, they were the favorite in all four games! Earlier this year, the Avs dealt them two blowout losses with a 13-4 goal advantage. Now Colorado lines up as the favorite. That the Golden Knights have given up seven goals in two games is a bit concerning. The Avs have allowed just one and bring a five-period shutout streak into Saturday’s showdown. I look for Colorado to earn the #1 seed. 10* Colorado |
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08-07-20 | Oilers -129 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -129 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10* Edmonton (6:35 ET): The Oilers are on the brink here, facing elimination, which wasn’t supposed to be the case as they entered the series as the #5 seed while Chicago was #12. The Blackhawks were last in the Central when the season shutdown but haven’t looked like a place team in a wild, high-scoring series that has seen 13 goals scored per side. Five of Edmonton’s goals have come from Connor McDavid, so he certainly hasn’t been the problem. Goaltending clearly has for the Oilers as Mike Smith was horrendous in Game 1 and Mikko Koskinen has been no better in the last two. Still, I look for McDavid and the Oilers to force a deciding Game 5. Goaltending has been no “walk in the park” for Chicago either. Corey Crawford has a 4.33 GAA and .859 save percentage thus far in the series. Those numbers are worse than Koskinen’s. Though they need to be given credit for winning twice so far, I’m just not a believer in this Blackhawks club that is just 10-25 SU their L35 games playing on a single day’s rest. Edmonton led Game 3 with just under six minutes remaining. So they let one slip away. Let’s also not forget that they are playing on their home rink here. While home ice advantage obviously doesn’t mean what it normally would in this scenario, the Oilers still should have the edge as the host team for the Western Conference hub. I just can’t see them losing for a third time in four tries as a favorite. 10* Edmonton |
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08-05-20 | Penguins v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -138 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
8* Under Penguins/Canadiens (8:05 ET): We had Pittsburgh in Game 2, which was a must win for the Penguins, and sure enough they came through in 3-1 fashion to even up the series at a game apiece. Now comes the all-important Game 3. Both games so far have gone Under with Montreal winning Game 1 by a score of 3-2. That’s the way we see this one going as well as the respective goaltenders should continue to rule the series. Pittsburgh stuck with Matt Murray in Game 2 and he rewarded them by carrying a shutout into the third period. He made 26 saves in all. One could argue that Montreal’s Carey Price was even more impressive though. He stopped 35 shots in Game 2 (last Penguins goal was an empty netter) and that was after making 39 saves in Game 1. The thought was that if Montreal was going to “steal” this series, it would be on the back of Price. I’m not surprised how well he’s playing. The Under is now 5-0 the last five Penguins’ playoff games where they were a favorite. Obviously, that’s the case again here. The Under is also now 6 for 6 the last six head to head matchups with Montreal. The Canadiens are 12-2-3 their L17 games as a playoff underdog. 8* Under Penguins/Canadiens |
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08-05-20 | Avalanche -128 v. Stars | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
10* Colorado (6:35 ET): The Avs pulled the proverbial “rabbit out of their hat” Sunday, beating the Blues at the buzzer. The 2-1 win was a nice start to round robin play for a team that I felt was the best in the West pre-lockdown. No other team in the conference could match the Avalanche’s +46 goal differential. Having already dispatched the reigning Stanley Cup Champs (and the team with the most points in the West this year), it shouldn’t prove difficult to defeat the weakest team in the West’s round robin format, that being Dallas. The Stars have now technically lost seven straight games after Monday’s 5-3 setback at the hands of Vegas. That was a brutal loss in the sense that Dallas blew a 3-1 lead, giving up four goals in the third period. That will be tough to overcome. Colorado will NOT be lacking for motivation here as they were 0-2-2 vs. the Stars in the regular season. Despite the head to head results, I would deem it “laughable” to consider the Stars as the better side here. They had a goal differential of only +3 before the season got shut down. That was only eighth best among Western Conference teams. I am anticipating the Avalanche winning the round robin format while the Stars were my pick to finish last. Thus, the play here is automatic. 10* Colorado |
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08-04-20 | Wild v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
10* Under Wild/Canucks (10:45 ET): This qualification series saw Minnesota open with a 3-0 win on Sunday. The Wild scored a goal in all three periods while outshooting the Canucks 31-28. Two of the three goals came on the power play. I was impressed with the Wild’s defensive efforts as Vancouver got very few scoring chances in the third period. However, it’s not like the Wild can count on a similar PP effort every game. I see this being another low-scoring affair. Take the Under. Vancouver’s last playoff appearance was in 2015 and there’s only three players from that team still left on the roster. They are going to be leaning heavily on goalie Jacob Markstom in this series and he should be better in Game 2 than he was in Game 1. Markstrom had a .918 save percentage and 2.75 GAA in the regular season. The problem is going to be, like we saw in Game 1, will the offense give Markstrom any relief? The top six skates produced only five shots in Game 1. So far in the postseason, 12 of the 16 games played have stayed Under. If you remove the round robin matchups, the Under is 9-3. Minnesota is 39-29 Under the L3 seasons when coming off a win by 2+goals. All of the Wild’s goals in Game 1 came from defensemen. The fact not a single forward scored in Game 1 is maybe the biggest reason of all to look Under for Game 2. 10* Under Wild/Canucks |
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08-03-20 | Canadiens v. Penguins -125 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
7* Pittsburgh (8:05 ET): One would surmise that the Penguins are likely to even this series back up after a surprising overtime loss in Game 1. It was a tough loss to take as the Pens outshot the Canadiens 41-35 and were just 1 for 7 on the power play including coming up empty on THREE different 5 on 3 chances. That’s a game they should have won and obviously falling into an 0-2 hole in a best of five series is something that must be avoided at all costs. Montreal is lucky to even be in the postseason as they are seeded 12th and had seven fewer points than every other Eastern Conference club in the field. As we saw in Game 1, Carey Price gives them a shot, but I just don’t think he can carry them to victory over a superior side like the Penguins. The Habs were outscored over the course of this season and were basically a .500 team in regulation. It remains to be seen who Pittsburgh goes with in goal here, but it’s worth mentioning that Tristan Jarry had a better save percentage than Price this year. Assuming they get a similar number of opportunities, I don’t think we’re going to see the Penguins whiff like they did Saturday. They’ve still won 7 of their last 10 vs. Montreal. 7* Pittsburgh |
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08-03-20 | Capitals v. Lightning -130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): The Lightning were just starting to hit their stride when the coronavirus hit. They were inching closer to Boston for the top spot in the Atlantic and had the 2nd most points in the entire Eastern Conference. They also had the best goal differential in the league (+50) besides the Bruins. Washington, who had 90 points, outscored its opponents by basically only half that margin and wasn’t looking nearly as dominant. I’m looking for a statement win by TB here today. Now the Lightning did lose all three times they faced the Capitals this year. But all three games were played before X-Mas, prior to when TB really started to get its act together. Washington has goaltending concerns heading into the tournament as Braden Holtby has no backup. That would be fine if Holtby was having a good season, but his save percentage this year was down under .900. As a reminder, the Lightning led the league in goals scored. Tampa looked dominant in a tuneup vs. Florida last week, winning 5-0. Their top line looked sharp and that has to be scary for the rest of the league. Andrei Vasilevskiy had another strong campaign between the pipes, so the Lightning are fine there. This is a really good value on the superior side. 10* Tampa Bay |
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08-02-20 | Wild v. Canucks -104 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -104 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
10* Vancouver (10:35 ET): Yes, Minnesota is a veteran club with more playoff experience than Vancouver. But I felt the Canucks were the better team this year and they’re poised to potentially pull an “upset” in this qualification series, which counts as their first postseason experience since 2015. Vancouver had a +11 goal differential in 69 games whereas the Wild allowed the same exact number they scored. This is a solid value on the team with better goaltending. Jacob Markstrom is going to be the key for the Canucks to win this series. The netminder was a borderline Vezina finalist this year with a .918 save percentage and 2.75 GAA. Again, I give him the edge over counterpart Alex Stalock, who is the only reliable option left for the Wild after Devan Dubnyk fell apart this year. The Wild would not have even made the postseason were it not for the expanded format. Meanwhile, Vancouver sat 4th in the Pacific and was just above the cutline. The Canucks also boast the better top line. 10* Vancouver |
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08-01-20 | Blackhawks v. Oilers -150 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -150 | 64 h 52 m | Show |
10* Edmonton (3:05 ET): While no fans will be in attendance and travel is not an issue, the Oilers still have an edge with the Western Conference “bubble” being in Edmonton. The players know the rink well (Rogers Place). While the Oilers are in the qualification round, their first round opponent is the Chicago Blackhawks, who are - objectively speaking - the weakest team remaining in the 24-team field. At least in the West, they are. At the time of the stoppage, the Blackhawks were last in the Central Division with only 72 points. Now the Oilers play in the Pacific, which was the weaker of the West’s two divisions. The only three teams not invited to Edmonton all hailed from the Pacific. The Oilers were in 2nd place at the stoppage, with 83 points, and curiously had a losing record in regulation here at home. However, while they were 1-2 vs. Chicago in the regular season, both losses were on the road. They won the only home game. Edmonton clearly will have the two best players on the ice in this series - Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Blackhawks should feel fortunate to even be in a playoff scenario. Clearly they were not preparing for a postseason run when they were sellers back at the league’s trade deadline. Furthermore, this is a team that was 26th in expected goal differential. Quite frankly, the ‘Hawks just aren’t very good. 10* Edmonton |
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03-10-20 | Penguins -174 v. Devils | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
7* Pittsburgh (7:08 ET): Thanks to the Capitals losing last night, the Penguins stayed within six points of the division lead. But the news isn’t all good in the Steel City. Passed by the in-state rival Flyers, the Pens are now in third in the Metro and have dropped B2B games. Both losses came at home over the weekend, 5-2 to the Caps and 6-2 to the Hurricanes. While they have to hit the road tonight, at least they’ll be facing the last place Devils, who don’t present the same kind of challenges compared to the L2 opponents. The Penguins’ only two wins in their last 10 games came against Ottawa and Buffalo, two teams that are out of contention just like New Jersey is. While Devils do come into Tuesday having scored a total of 10 goals in B2B wins, they still have their fair share of issues. They are just 5-9 SU this season following a win by 2+ goals. They beat the Rangers Saturday by a score of 6-4. They are 12-19 SU after giving up 4+ goals in their previous game. Despite being division rivals, these teams haven’t met since November. The Penguins took the last meeting by a score of 4-1. Despite the money line being somewhat inflated here, I still think it’s a good price on the favorite, given the situation. New Jersey has simply not demonstrated an ability to play consistently well over any sustained period of time. 7* Pittsburgh |
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03-09-20 | Avalanche -133 v. Kings | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
8* Colorado (10:35 ET): Going by goal differential, which I believe is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team’s actual won-loss record, the Avalanche are “head and shoulders” the best team in the Western Conference this season. They’ve outscored their opposition by 47 goals this season. The only other team in the conference with a differential higher than +15 is the one the Avs are chasing in the Central Division (St. Louis), who is at +31. Keep this in mind when it comes time to handicap the playoffs. Los Angeles has picked a curious time to play its best hockey of the season. They’ve won a season-high five straight including a shocking 7-3 win over Minnesota on Saturday. But the Kings are still a last place club and shouldn’t be taken all that seriously. They are certainly not in Colorado’s class and I’m expecting the home team to get a serious “reality check” tonight. The Avs just won here in LA a few weeks ago (2-1), avenging a 3-1 loss they suffered in Denver the week prior. Will it really be a season sweep by the road team? Yes. The Avalanche have dominated sub-.500 foes, going 11-2 SU in such games in the second half of the season. They just won in San Jose last night and have 30 more points than the Kings on the year. 8* Colorado |
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03-09-20 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -114 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
10* Edmonton (9:05 ET): It’s been a topsy-turvy race all season in the NHL’s Pacific Division, which Vegas now leads on the strength of a 10-2 run in their L12 games. But the lead is still only two points over Edmonton, which is where the Golden Knights will be tonight. They won in Calgary last night, 5-3, a nice rebound from their 4-0 loss in Winnipeg two days prior. But pulling off an “Alberta sweep” should prove to be too difficult as the Knights have won here only one time in franchise history. This is their first visit of the season. The Oilers come into tonight’s showdown having won four of five. They easily defeated Columbus here at home Friday by a score of 4-1. This is a team that’s had to play six of its last eight games on the road. Tonight is the first time they’ve gotten to play two in a row at home since 2/19-2/21. It’s also a revenge spot as they lost 3-0 out in Vegas on 2/26. Early in the season, Edmonton did go out to Sin City and record a 4-2 victory. While you’ve got to tip your cap to the way Vegas has played lately, the Oilers have been every bit as hot recently. Connor McDavid has 15 points in the eight games since he returned from injury. Goaltender Mikko Koskinen made 45 saves in the win over Columbus. If there was a time where the Golden Knights were likely to “slip up,” it would be here as they’re in the second night of a back to back and facing a revenge-minded team. It’s been over a month since Vegas last won B2B road games. 10* Edmonton |
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03-08-20 | Lightning v. Red Wings UNDER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Lightning/Red Wings (5:05 ET): A franchise-record 11-game win streak took the Lightning nearly to the top of the Atlantic Division. But they quickly regressed after that, losing five of their next seven games. Even a 5-3 win over the first place Bruins yesterday leaves TB seven points back of the division lead. But they have a golden opportunity to further trim that deficit as they face the worst team in the league today. They have beaten the Red Wings 16 straight times in the regular season. I can’t think of a single metric that doesn’t consider Detroit the worst team in the league. They have the fewest points (37), worst goal differential (-120), scored the fewest goals (138) and given up the most (258). In most cases, they aren’t even close to the second worst team. While they did beat Chicago 2-1 on Friday, the Wings had lost six in a row prior to that as well as 10 of their previous 11 games. Obviously, oddsmakers are keenly aware of the mismatch that exists here and the money line is basically “unplayable.” But I think the total offers tremendous value this afternoon. I already mentioned that Detroit is by far the league’s lowest scoring team. In 9 of their last 11 games, they’ve been held to two goals or less. The Lightning see their goals per game average drop on the road, so I wouldn’t look for a repeat of yesterday when they put five on the board. Note that one of those came on an empty net. The Under is also 7-1 the L8 times the Lightning have played in the second game of a back to back. 10* Under Lightning/Red Wings |
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03-07-20 | Sabres +1.5 v. Flyers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Buffalo (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a Puck Line play where I am backing the Sabres at +1.5. There is obviously an inherent danger in playing against the hottest team in the league. The Flyers have won eight in a row to tie the Capitals at the top of the Metro. You have to hand it to them. All but one of those eight victories have come in regulation and by multiple goals. Losers of five straight, Buffalo hardly seems like the team that would end Philly’s win streak. But I see them doing no worse than a one-goal loss tonight. While the Flyers are at the apex of their season, the Sabres are at their nadir. This is the longest stretch they’ve gone w/o gathering at least one point in four years. Star Jack Eichel has zero points in his last six games, the longest stretch of his five-year career w/o a point. While things appear to be one-sided here, I like the insurance of the added 1.5 goals. 8* Puck Line Buffalo (+1.5) |
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03-07-20 | Predators v. Stars -143 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -143 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
10* Dallas (2:05 ET): The Stars appeared poised to make it a three-horse race (w/ St. Louis & Colorado) in the Central Division, but a four-game losing streak has not only knocked them off the pace but also slimmed their lead for third place. This afternoon sees them welcoming in Nashville for a critical game as the Predators are just trying to break into the playoff field as they are currently two points back of the Wild Card. These teams just met in Music City Thursday with the Preds turning in a 2-0 shutout. One thing the Stars do very well is not give up many goals. In fact, only one other team (Boston) has given up fewer on the season. The problem has been scoring goals as the Stars actually rank very close to the bottom of the league (26th) in that regard. That issue certainly reared its ugly head Thursday in Nashville where they were blanked for the fifth time this season. But three of the previous four games saw them score at least three times. Both goals allowed on Thursday came via the power play. Penalty killing has been an issue of late for the Stars as they’ve allowed NINE PP goals in their L9 games. However, they’re still doing an excellent job 5 on 5 and should be particularly stingy here as they give up just 2.2 goals per game on home ice. Nashville had dropped three in a row itself before the win Thursday and it’s been almost a month since they won on the road. I think this is where the Stars circle the proverbial wagon. 10* Dallas |
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03-06-20 | Avalanche v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
6* Puck Line Vancouver (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am backing Vancouver +1.5 goals. The Canucks are desperate right now, having lost four straight. Despite this, the playoffs very much remain in reach as they are still tied for the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. They’ve generally been pretty consistent at home (where they’re 20-8-4 SU) and I don’t see them doing any worse than a one-goal loss tonight. Colorado is a team I’ll likely be high on come playoff time. They have the best goal differential in the Western Conference (+49) and recently put together a seven-game win streak. But they’re off a loss here and a rather stunning one at that as they fell as -410 home favorites to Anaheim on Wednesday. That was an overtime game, so the Avs still got a point, extending their point spread to nine games. While the Canucks have been strong at home, the Avs have admittedly been just as strong on the road (23-9-2). Colorado brings a franchise record 9-game road win streak to Vancouver tonight, so something will have to give. Interesting is that six of the Avs’ last seven wins have been by one goal. They are dealing with many injuries right now and eventually that will catch up with them. I give the Canucks a great shot at taking this game. 6* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5) |
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03-05-20 | Capitals -131 v. Rangers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
9* Washington (7:05 ET): The division leading Capitals figured they’d be getting a tough challenge from the Penguins at this point of the season. Sure enough, the Pens are only four points back of them in the Metro standings. But Philadelphia is even closer, now just one point back after winning seven in a row. So for Washington, tonight’s game is hugely important as they look to maintain first place. They face a Rangers team that has cooled off all of a sudden w/ three straight losses, the last two coming at home. New York is still stuck in 7th place in the Metro, which is where they’ve been most of the season. They are three points out of the Wild Card, but would also need to jump Carolina. They’d won 9 of 10, but then ran into the aforementioned Flyers, who swept them in a home and home. Then came a 3-1 loss to St. Louis on Tuesday. Making matters worse is the fact the Rangers lost Chris Krieder for 4-6 weeks over the weekend. Despite being division rivals, these teams haven’t played since November. That’s good for the Rangers because they’ve lost 8 of the last 10 head to head meetings. They did win the last one, but Washington figures to be a lot more desperate here after they too fell victim to the Flyers last night. Luckily, the Caps are 6-3 SU in the second night of a back to back and 16-5 SU after allowing 4+ goals in the previous game (it was a 5-2 loss last night). 9* Washington |
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03-05-20 | Canadiens v. Lightning -180 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
7* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): For much of the 1st half of the season, I told you Tampa Bay was a “sleeping giant.” Their YTD goal differential has always been one of the league’s best this year, plus let us not forget this team had the best regular season in the history of the league a year ago. Sure enough, right after the All-Star Break, the Lightning ripped off a franchise-best 11-game win streak that propelled them near the top of the league standings. Unfortunately though, they’ve since dropped five of six and have fallen nine points back of the first place Bruins, who beat them 2-1 on Tuesday. Tonight seems like a safe bet for the Lightning to bounce back though as they host Montreal. While the Canadiens are flirting with playoff contention, they remain seven points back of where they need to be. Back to back wins over teams that they are chasing (Carolina, Islanders) have definitely helped the Habs’ cause, but they look to be overmatched here against a team that has beaten them 9 of the last 11 meetings. The Lightning are 3 for 3 in head to head meetings w/ the Habs this season and two of those wins came in Montreal. The Habs have lost five straight times here in TB where the Lightning are 21-10-2 SU and averaging nearly 4.0 goals per game. It’s not just Montreal, but the entire Atlantic Division that the Lightning have dominated this year. They are 16-4 SU in division games, winning by a solid 1.3 gpg average. They are also 5-1 SU this season following a game in which they scored 1 goal or less. 7* Tampa Bay |
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03-03-20 | Ducks +1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -157 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Anaheim (8:38 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the +1.5. The Ducks failed to show up Sunday in a 3-0 loss to New Jersey. That was their second time being shutout at home in the L5 games. What made Sunday’s loss all the more disconcerting is that the Devils had just played the night before and lost in overtime. Also, NJ isn’t very good. The Ducks didn’t bounce back from their last shutout loss to win. But they did only lose by one goal. I’m willing to say they can at least do that again this time and I’ll be taking the puck line (+1.5). Chicago has won two straight. But the last win (in Florida) did require a shootout. I’ll give them credit for upsetting Tampa Bay as a +195 ML dog the game prior. But before that, they’d lost 8 of 10 w/ one of the wins coming by a single goal. So that means in 10 of the last 12 games they have not won by more than one goal. Hardly inspiring. Keep in mind that this is a last place team as well. Furthermore, the Blackhawks have posted just one win streak of three games or longer in the new year. They are just 1-5 SU after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. (They won 3-2 at Florida). 8* Puck Line Anaheim |
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03-02-20 | Oilers v. Predators -127 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -127 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
10* Nashville (8:05 ET): From here on out, almost every game pitting Western Conference teams against one another will have some sort of bearing on the playoff picture. Take this one, for example. Edmonton is in second place in the Pacific Division, but only four points ahead of the ninth place team in the Conference. Nashville is one of three teams tied for the final Wild Card spot. I think the sense of desperation is going to be greater here for the Predators, who are at home. The Preds did just drop a game on home ice Saturday, but that was to a very good Colorado club that I consider to be the best team in all of the Western Conference. Before losing that game, Nashville had won three straight here at Bridgestone Arena. Their overall home record this season is a little disappointing, but they’ve played some of their best hockey all season recently in a 10-5-1 SU stretch. Also, take this for what it’s worth - the Preds are 40-12 SU their L52 Monday games. They seem to know how to start the week off right! Edmonton comes in off a 3-2 win over Winnipeg Sat night, but that was at home and prior to it, they’d dropped 4 of 5 including road losses to Anaheim and Vegas. This team is just 7-15 SU off its L22 wins. Prior to losing a couple head to head matchups earlier this season, Nashville definitely had the Oilers number, winning 14 of the previous 15 meetings. 10* Nashville |
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03-01-20 | Devils v. Ducks -140 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
8* Anaheim (8:05 ET): This is not a good time to be backing New Jersey as the last place team from the Metro will be playing its third road game in four nights as well as the second game of a back to back. Tonight marks the end of the dreaded “Southern California swing” as the Devils have previously lost in San Jose and Los Angeles and now head to Anaheim. The Ducks await where they’ll be fresh off two consecutive wins, the last one coming against Pittsburgh. I haven’t backed Anaheim much this season, but this is a great spot to do so. The Ducks, like the Devils, won’t be making the playoffs this season. They are tied with the Sharks for 6th in the Pacific at 60 points. But it’s important to note that the team we’re getting on the ice tonight doesn’t necessarily resemble the one we’ve seen for the balance of the season. This was an active team at the trade deadline with seven trades made in total, six of them on Monday. The newcomers are paying dividends so far as they led the way in Friday’s upset of Pittsburgh. Making the situation even worse for New Jersey is the fact last night’s game went into overtime. It was their second straight OT loss, so you have to wonder how much they have left in the tank for this one. Despite beating Anaheim (at home) back in December, the Devils have lost 9 of the last 12 head to head meetings. The new-look Ducks get their revenge here as they take care of a NJ club that is just 1-5 SU if they went to OT the previous day. 8* Anaheim |
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03-01-20 | Capitals -125 v. Wild | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:05 ET): The Capitals have gotten a huge break w/ their chief rival (Pittsburgh) losing six in a row. Their next closest competition is now actually the Flyers, who are three points behind. That’s obviously still a really tight margin and Thursday’s 3-0 loss in Winnipeg did the Caps no favors. But in the previous two games, they scored a total of nine goals. While those were both at home, there’s actually zero dropoff in terms of goals scored at home vs. on the road for this club. Minnesota is also off a shutout in its last game, though theirs was a dominant 5-0 win over Columbus. It was the Wild’s third straight victory as they are trying just to get into the playoffs over in the Western Conference. The way things stand now, they are one point back of a three-way tie for the final Wild Card. The current stretch is among the very best we’ve seen all season from them, but I’m not convinced it can be sustained. They’ve recently beaten a Columbus team that is really struggling - twice - and Detroit who is the worst team in the league. 10* Washington |
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02-29-20 | Blackhawks v. Panthers -153 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -153 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* Florida (6:05 ET): This is an incredibly important game for the Panthers. They just lost to Toronto on Thursday (5-3 here at home), leaving them four points back of third place in the Atlantic. Of course, the other way the Panthers can make the playoffs is the Wild Card. But in that race, they are competing with a litany of teams from the Metro. While also four points back of the WC, Florida would need to jump THREE teams to get that final spot. Needless to say, getting the two points tonight is a virtual “must.” Florida’s opponent Saturday is in last place in its division. That would be Chicago, over in the Central. The Blackhawks did pull off a “real stunner” the other night when they went to Tampa Bay and prevailed 5-2 as a +195 ML underdog. But don’t let that one win confuse you. The Blackhawks have still won just 3 of their previous 12 games and it’s been over a month since they last posted B2B victories. In that loss to Toronto on Thursday, the Panthers blew a 2-goal lead. Given the stakes that were involved, that has to be terribly disappointing. While there’s been little in the way of home ice advantage here in Sunrise, the Panthers do average a healthy 3.6 goals per game here. The fact Florida has lost all five home games since the All-Star Break will have them supremely motivated here. 10* Florida |
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02-28-20 | Rangers v. Flyers -159 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): If you presume that both Washington and Pittsburgh are “locks” to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs (probably true), then that means only one other team from the Metro is guaranteed a postseason spot. Now at least two more are likely to make it, but this is a crowded field with five teams currently separated by five points. Philadelphia currently sits in the coveted third place position in the division (behind Wash & Pit) and is actually just one point out of second place. They host the 7th place Rangers in an all-important matchup Friday. The Flyers have won four straight to vault into third. But they are actually NOT the hottest team in the division right now, the Rangers are. NY has won five straight (and 9 of 10), but as you can see it hasn’t done them much good as they haven’t moved up in the standings at all. That tells you that they really hadn’t been a great team prior. The Flyers have definitely been more consistent this year. Several key advantages exist for Philly tonight. One is that the Rangers played in Montreal last night. This will be NY’s third road game in four nights. The Flyers have been one of the league’s best home teams this year, going 22-5-4. That’s the fewest number of home losses in the league. They are also 7-2 SU the L9 head to head meetings w/ the Rangers including 5-1 win in the only previous meeting this season. 10* Philadelphia |
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02-27-20 | Stars v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Over Stars/Bruins (7:35 ET): I’ve been having a lot of success betting NHL totals recently as Tuesday’s Over pick (CHI-STL) saw a combined 11 goals scored while last night’s 10* Total of the Week (and Under) ended up as a 3-0 shutout (Vegas over Edmonton). Of course, there was also last Friday’s 10* Total of the Month on Under Nashville-Chicago, which saw the teams enter overtime tied at 1-1. Tonight there looks to be a high-scoring game on the horizon between Dallas and Boston. Take the Over in this one. Boston has led the Atlantic Division basically the entire season. But with Tampa Bay catching fire over the last month or so, the race for 1st place (and probably the President’s Trophy as well) has gotten a lot tighter. The Bruins’ lead is down to five points and was even tighter recently. They’ve lost B2B games, but have been fortunate that the Lightning have lost three straight. The Bruins are very impressive at home w/ just three regulation losses here all season. They average 3.4 goals per game on home ice. Note how low the total is here. That’s because these are the two top teams in terms of fewest goals allowed in the league. Still, that doesn’t mean the # should be this low. For instance, Boston has given up 14 goals in just the last two games including a stunning NINE in a loss to Vancouver last Saturday. Dallas just scored four goals by itself in its last game (at Carolina) but also gave up five in a recent loss to St. Louis. Both sides are capable of “going off” offensively and it’s not often you get an O/U line of 5.0 anymore. 10* Over Stars/Bruins |
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02-26-20 | Oilers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
10* Under Oilers/Golden Knights (10:38 ET): It's a really tight race at the top of the Pacific Division right now. Vegas, who has won six in a row, currently leads with 76 points. But both Vancouver and Edmonton are only two points behind. Tonight, the Golden Knights host one of those teams (Edmonton) in a very important matchup. But who wins here is of little importance to me as I see a total that’s been set too high for such a high-stakes battle. The offense has come alive for Vegas during this six-game win streak as they’ve scored at least 5 times in four of the six games. That includes each of the last three with a 6-5 win over Anaheim on Sunday (in OT) being the most recent decision. Tonight is the start of what looks to be a very favorable homestand for the Golden Knights. But we don’t see the recent level of goal scoring continuing. Also, the team is 5-1 Under the previous six times they’ve been off a game where they allowed 5+ goals. Edmonton lost 4-3 last night in Anaheim, also an overtime game, which would seemingly put them at a disadvantage tonight. But note the Oilers are a perfect 6-0 this season playing in the second night of a back to back. However, over a longer term, they are just 4-10 SU after going to OT the previous day. Last night’s game was 3-2 late in the 3rd period (Edmonton trailed) so it easily could have stayed Under. This one will as that’s how four of the five all-time meetings in Vegas have gone. 10* Under Oilers/Golden Knights |
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02-25-20 | Blackhawks v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Blackhawks/Blues (8:05 ET): The last place and first place teams in the Central meet in an old Norris Division rivalry matchup. St. Louis, after losing five in a row, has circled the wagons to win its last four games while conceding just two goals! Chicago, as you’d expect from a last place club, has dropped three of four and scored just eight goals in the process. But I believe this game will be higher scoring than expected. |
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02-25-20 | Jets v. Capitals -190 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
7* Washington (7:05 ET): After briefly falling out of first place in the Metro, the Capitals have climbed their way back to the top, thanks to a three-game losing streak by Pittsburgh. But it’s still only a two-point edge over the Pens, meaning tonight’s home game vs. Winnipeg is quite critical. Maybe not as critical as Sunday’s 5-3 win here over Pittsburgh, but the Caps do need this one. Fortunately for them, this will be the Jets’ third road game in four nights. Winnipeg is just trying to get into the postseason field. Right now they find themselves one point behind the two Wild Card teams, Calgary and Arizona, who are in the other division. The Jets’ chances of finishing third in their own division are rather small at this point. So it’s going to have to be the Wild Card, if they are to make it into the playoffs. But losses at Philadelphia and Buffalo over the weekend certainly didn’t help. The Jets managed only three goals in the two losses, a far cry from the number they scored (11) in the previous two contests. While Washington did lose four in a row before beating Pittsburgh Sunday, I’m quite confident they get the job done here. They remain one of the elite teams in the league and this just isn’t a great spot for Winnipeg to pull an upset. Not only are the Jets just 1-10 SU in the third game of a “3 (games) in 4 nights situation,” but they are also 2-9 SU their L11 times as a ML dog. 7* Washington |
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02-23-20 | Blackhawks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
10* Over Blackhawks/Stars (3:00 ET): On Friday, I won by *10* Total of the Month as the Blackhawks’ game vs. the Predators easily stayed Under the number. It was a 1-1 game entering OT (total was 6.5), which Chicago would go onto win. I followed that up by cashing the Preds (in another OT game) last night. Now we go back to the Blackhawks, who are in Dallas Sunday afternoon. Look for this to be a higher scoring game than their last one. Yes, I say that knowing full well that the Stars are among the stingiest teams in the league, particularly on home ice. But they just got tagged for five goals by St. Louis in a loss Friday. The Over is 3-0-1 in Dallas’ previous four games w/ them also allowing 4 goals in a loss at Ottawa during that stretch. For Chicago, the Over is 13-3 the L16 times they’ve been off a game where they scored two goals or less. While they haven’t done a ton of scoring recently, the Blackhawks did have a game at Calgary on 2.15 where they found the back of the net EIGHT times. They also gave up six goals in a loss to the Rangers earlier this week. 10* Over Blackhawks/Stars |
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02-22-20 | Blue Jackets v. Predators -144 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
8* Nashville (8:05 ET): Columbus might still technically have a hold on the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, but it’s a tenuous one at best and they are sinking fast with a seven-game losing streak. Now four of those Blue Jackets’ losses have taken place after regulation has ended, the most recent being Thursday’s OT loss at home vs. Philly, which was really crucial as it allowed the Flyers to move two points up on them in the standings. My view is that you simply can’t back this club right now. Nashville is also fighting for its playoff life. They are two points back of the Wild Card over in the Western Conference, but competing against quite a number of teams (same as C-bus in the East). The Predators, like the Blue Jackets, aren’t exactly in top form coming into Saturday. They’ve lost two straight, scoring just one goal against both Carolina and Chicago. Last night’s 2-1 loss in the Windy City was my 10* Total of the Month (Under). That had more to do w/ the Blackhawks’ recent scoring slump though. It did surprise me that the Preds were able to score only one goal in an OT loss. At home, the Preds’ gpg average actually declines greatly. But there are three things working in their favor for this game. One is that they also allow a far fewer number of goals per game at home. Two is that the Bridgestone Arena has been Columbus’ least favorite place to visit through the years as their all-time record here is a pathetic 9-35 SU! Lastly, over the L5 games, the Blue Jackets have allowed a total of 20 goals. 8* Nashville |
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02-21-20 | Predators v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Predators/Blackhawks (8:35 ET): Chicago has just one win in its last eight games and it saw them score 8 times (at Calgary). Other than that though, they haven’t topped 3 goals in any game since before the All-Star Break. As a result of their recent losing ways, the Blackhawks currently reside in the basement of the Central Division w/ just 60 points. While that’s actually just nine points back of the Wild Card, it would likely take something miraculous for the ‘Hawks to make the playoffs given the number of teams they’d need to jump. Nashville is in a slightly better position right now w/ 65 points. They’d won three in a row, including a home & home sweep of St. Louis, before dropping a 4-1 decision to Carolina on Tuesday. That was at home. For the most part, Predators’ road games have been pretty high scoring with the Over going 20-10 and them averaging 3.5 gpg while conceding 3.4. But because of those numbers, we’re getting a high total to work with here. Seven of the Preds’ last nine games have stayed Under including three of five on the road. The key is that both games that had totals of 6.5 stayed Under. Chicago probably isn’t going to score many goals tonight given its recent form. It then becomes a question of holding Nashville’s offense in check. The Rangers scored six times on the Blackhawks Wednesday night. It was the 4th time this season Chicago allowed 6+ goals in a game. After the previous three, they’ve responded by allowing just eight total. Nashville also gets key defenseman Ryan Ellis back for this game. 10* Under Predators/Blackhawks |
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02-20-20 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Montreal (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am backing the Canadiens +1.5. The Habs are off a bone-crushing 4-3 loss (to the Red Wings) where they blew a 3-1 lead. That result gives them the ignominy of losing to the worst team in the league four times this season. It was also their fifth loss in a row overall. The bottom line is getting swept in the season series with the Red Wings likely has huge repercussions, specifically when it comes to making the playoffs. But it’s not as if the Habs aren’t competitive. As mentioned above, they did lead their last game 3-1 going into the third period. Of the five straight losses, three have come by one-goal margins. So that’s where the puck line comes in handy. In fact, seven of Montreal’s last nine games have been decided by one goal. I don’t believe the Canadiens are going to do any worse than a one goal loss tonight. The task is tall tonight facing Washington, but the Capitals have had their own struggles of late, namely dropping four of their last five games. They’ve scored only 11 goals and none of them have come from Alex Ovechkin. The lone win in that stretch came by a single goal. After spending the last week out West, the Caps return home NOT in 1st place in the Metro for the 1st time in a long time (Pittsburgh has surpassed them). Montreal already won here in D.C. (back in November), so we know they have “what it takes.” 8* Puck Line Montreal (+1.5) |
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02-19-20 | Islanders v. Avalanche -163 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
10* Colorado (10:05 ET): The Avalanche have by far and away the best goal differential in the Western Conference at +42. The next closest team is St. Louis (+18) and only two teams in the East (Boston, TB) can claim better YTD goal differentials. Scoring differential is a metric I value across all sports as it tends to be a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team’s actual won-loss record. So keep an eye on the Avs’ goal differential when you handicap the Western Conference playoff picture moving forward. That the Avs are so far in front of the field in goal differential, yet only in third place in their own division is perplexing to say the least. Note it’s a very tight race in the Central right now w/ St. Louis, Dallas & Colorado all separated by just three points. But make no mistake about it, after losing three in a row - all at home - the Avalanche desperately need to win tonight’s game. The Islanders have not had a successful road trip. They’ve scored a grand total of one goal so far, losing all three games. I successfully faded them Monday afternoon in Arizona. While there’s been no losing streak of longer than three games this year for the Isles, facing a team that averages 3.7 gpg at home hardly seems like an ideal matchup for them. NY’s scoring average on the road is now down to 2.4 gpg. Colorado is 11-5 SU this year after allowing 4+ goals in its previous game (lost 4-3 to Tampa Bay Monday). 10* Colorado |
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02-18-20 | Canadiens -195 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -195 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
6* Montreal (7:35 ET): Both of these teams come into Tuesday on four-game losing streaks. So recent form offers little in the way of advantages either way. But looking at the totality of the season, it’s clear who you want to fade here and that’s Detroit, the consensus worst team in the league. The Red Wings have just 32 points and a -106 goal differential, both easily league’s worsts. To put those numbers in perspective, the next lowest point total in the league is 47 (Kings) while the 2nd worst goal differential is -44 (Ottawa). However, there is at least one curious element to this terrible season from the Red Wings. They are 3-0 against Montreal! The Habs might be a slightly below average team, but no one should be losing three times to Detroit. Consider that the Red Wings’ record vs. everyone else is 11-43-4 SU. Looking at the respective four-game losing streaks, Montreal was able to pick up a point its last time out as it fell in overtime vs. Dallas. They blew a three-goal lead in that game. It’s been a long time since Detroit has been in that kind of position as they have scored only three times total the L3 games and been outscored by 10 goals. They lost 5-1 at Pittsburgh Sunday, troubling because they are a horrifying 4-31 SU this season after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. I just can’t see the Canadiens losing to the Wings again. They’ve actually performed better on the road this season. 6* Montreal |
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02-17-20 | Islanders v. Coyotes -128 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
9* Arizona (4:05 ET): Needless to say, the Islanders have not had a strong start to this road trip. They’ve yet to even score a single goal! Shutout losses to Nashville and Vegas leave the Isles in a third place tie in the Metro and a tenuous two points ahead of sixth place Carolina. It’s a very thin line between “in” and “out” of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. The same could be said out West where Arizona is trying to make the playoffs. The Coyotes would currently be a Wild Card, but are tied w/ Calgary and depending what Winnipeg does Sunday night at home vs. Chicago, one of the two Pacific Division teams would be on the outside looking in. Unlike the Islanders, the ‘Yotes do bring a bit of positive momentum in this one as they defeated Washington 3-1 on Saturday. Now they try to win B2B games for the 1st time in over a month. While goal scoring has been a problem for NY recently, they are still #6 in the league in goals allowed. But Arizona isn’t too far behind, ranking #9. So the edge the Isles have over most opponents won’t be present here. Plus the Coyotes have the goal scoring advantage here at home, averaging 3.1 gpg here compared to 2.4 for NY on the road. The Islanders are just 1-6 SU their L7 games as a ML dog, all but one of those games taking place on the road. 9* Arizona |
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02-16-20 | Blackhawks v. Jets -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10* Winnipeg (8:35 ET): Chicago is coming off an 8-goal effort last night in Calgary. That sounds all “fine and dandy,” but let’s consider for a moment that the Blackhawks had lost five in a row going into last night and had scored a grand total of eight goals in those five losses. They remain buried in last place of the Central Division with 60 points and while they are still viable for a Wild Card spot, I wouldn’t expect to see this club still playing hockey when the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin in April. Winnipeg also needs to make up some ground in order to make the playoffs. They are only three points ahead of Chicago in the standings, but are in fourth place in the division and only three points back of the Wild Card. The top three teams in the Central (St. Louis, Dallas, Colorado) have really solidified themselves, so the only way another Central team is getting into the postseason is through the Wild Card. This game is quite important for both sides. The Jets recently defeated the Blackhawks, 5-2 here in Winnipeg, which at the time gave them their fourth three-game win streak of the season. Unfortunately, they haven’t won since, dropping two straight at home. Look for this to be the proverbial bounce back spot though. Losing three in a row, all at home, is something that hasn’t happened since October. 10* Winnipeg |
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02-16-20 | Bruins -139 v. Rangers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
8* Boston (3:35 ET): For the balance of the season, Boston has been out in front in the Atlantic Division. They still lead the league with 84 points but Tampa Bay (83 pts) is now hot on the Bruins’ heels, making them probably rue the fact they are a league-worst 0-7 in shootouts. Still the Bruins keep on winning as yday’s 4-1 triumph over league worst Detroit was their eighth win in the last nine contests and avenged the only loss during that time (last Sunday in Detroit). Today they head to MSG where they’ve won three straight times.. New York is having an okay season as they are over .500 and have a positive goal differential. They’ve won four straight coming into Sunday. However, they remain in a tough spot as they’re still only in seventh place in the Metro and would need to jump at least three teams in order to get into playoff position. The gap between them and the second Wild Card is currently seven points. The Rangers did not play yesterday. This is NY’s longest win streak of the season. While they did just beat Columbus (despite facing 37 shots), most of the wins have come against the inferior Western Conference. The Bruins simply have too much offense here as they’ve scored 4+ goals nine times in a 12-3-1 stretch that goes back to early January. I already mentioned the success they’ve had playing in this venue (3-0 L3) and they are 17-8 L25 times taking the ice as a road favorite. The Rangers are 7-18 SU vs. opponents with a .600 or better win percentage. 8* Boston |
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02-15-20 | Sharks v. Wild -175 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -175 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
7* Minnesota (5:05 ET): With San Jose on the second night of a back to back (won 3-2 last night), this seems like an opportune time to fade them. The fact that they won last night in Winnipeg makes the decision to fade somewhat easier. Overall, the Sharks are not having a good season as they’ve been outscored by 39 goals and remain near the bottom of the Western Conference. They’ve somehow managed to win three straight, but that’s a streak I don’t see continuing. Over in Minnesota, the Wild are dealing with some unexpected turmoil right now due to the shocking firing of HC Bruce Boudreau. The move came on the heels of the team blowing a 3-1 lead to the Rangers and losing 4-3 in a shootout. But despite shaky goaltending, the Wild are still 7-3-1 their L11 games and very much viable in the playoff race as they are only three points back of the Wild Card. That’s a lot better than San Jose. Taking Boudreau’s spot behind the bench is interim Dean Evason. He inherits a club that’s 17-8-5 SU at home. Teams typically respond well to a coaching change and that’s what I expect from the Wild tonight. Another motivating factor is that they have lost four in a row to the Sharks. It helps San Jose is being outscored by more than a full goal per game on the road this season. The Sharks’ 2.4 gpg average away from home ranks 26th. They are 2-6 SU playing on back to back days. 7* Minnesota |
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02-14-20 | Sharks v. Jets OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* Over Sharks/Jets (7:05 ET): It’s been four days since the Sharks last took the ice and suffered a disastrous 6-2 loss to Calgary, a team they’d recently beaten on the road. That was only one of two home games they’ll play in the first 25 days of the month. Prior to that loss, they’d scored six goals of their own in a win at Edmonton as they made it an “Alberta sweep” over the Flames and Oilers. Tonight it’s back to Canada with a visit to Winnipeg, who just had a three game win streak snapped here at home Tuesday as the Rangers came in and beat them 4-1. In that three-game win streak, the Jets piled up 14 goals and appeared to be ascendant in the Central Division standings. But with an eight-point gap now existing between the top three and the rest of the field in the Central, it would appear as if the Wild Card is the only point of entry for the Jets when it comes to the playoffs. Even though they were held to just one goal by the Rangers, Winnipeg did get 44 shots on goal. So don’t be surprised if the kind of goal scoring we saw in the prior three games resumes here. San Jose is a terrible defensive team as they are giving up 3.5 goals per game on the road. Poor play at the defensive end is what caused them to fall into an early 3-0 hole. Tonight marks the 5th time this year that the Sharks have played with at least three days rest. The Over is 3-1 the previous four times. Winnipeg took both head to head meetings in November and those were in San Jose. The Sharks were playing much better at that time. The Jets scored eight goals in those games. I see this being a high-scoring contest. 10* Over Sharks/Jets |
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02-12-20 | Flames -123 v. Kings | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* Calgary (10:05 ET): The Flames obviously aren’t as good as they were a season ago, but this looks to be a game where they pick up an easy two points. You may recall Calgary finished first in the entire Western Conference last year. Regression was all but inevitable and right now they are third in the division (Pacific), tied w/ two other teams (Vegas, Arizona). But they are only three points out of first and that’s a lot better than where tonight’s opponent is, that being dead last in both the division and conference! The Kings have just 43 points, which is 21 fewer than the Flames. The only team in the league with fewer points in the whole league is Detroit. Los Angeles also has a -47 goal differential, again 2nd worst in the entire league w/ only Detroit worse. It’s one thing to be bad and another to also be in bad form and the Kings happen to be both. They’ve lost five in a row, getting outscored 19-7 in the process. Meanwhile, Calgary is coming off B2B 6-2 wins out on the road. They won at Vancouver (1st place team in the Pacific) as well as San Jose. Avenging two early season losses (both in October), the Flames beat the Kings back on 12.7 by a score of 4-3. To me, this line should be north of -200. The Kings are just that bad and I won’t hesitate to fade them at the current price. Overall, LA has lost 13 of 15. They just got back from a winless East Coast trip, so fatigue could be a factor. 10* Calgary |
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02-11-20 | Red Wings v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Red Wings/Sabres (7:05 ET): These teams just met five days ago and the Red Wings skated away w/ 4-3 victory as +190 ML dogs. They are off an even more impressive win, as a +290 ML dog, at home vs. Boston. But those are the only two wins for the Wings going back to Jan 10. This is a team that has had MANY long losing skids this season (FOUR of six or more). As a result, they are clearly the worst team in the league (32 points, -95 goal differential) and not worth backing on any kind of semi-regular basis. Buffalo isn’t exactly having a great year either. It started well, just as last year did, but the Sabres are just 15-22-7 SU their L44 games. I already mentioned the loss to Detroit five weeks ago. Well, they took another loss at home on Sunday, this one coming by a 3-2 score against Anaheim. They’ve lost six of eight overall with the only win in regulation coming at MSG vs. the Rangers. As a result, the club is barely visible in the playoff chase. They’re currently 13 points back of the Wild Card. A big reason why Detroit has such an atrocious YTD goal differential is that they have given up the most goals in the league (213). That works out to an average of 3.7 allowed per game. As you might imagine, it only gets worse on the road where the average jumps to 4.1 gpg allowed. That game five days ago went Over and so should this one. Buffalo hung five goals on Detroit when they met in January. They are 6-1 Over on Tuesday nights. 10* Over Red Wings/Sabres |
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02-10-20 | Panthers v. Flyers -127 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): For a Monday in February, this shapes up to be a pretty critical game. Both Florida and Philadelphia currently find themselves on the “outside looking in” when it comes to the playoffs. The Flyers are technically tied (w/ Carolina) for the second Wild Card at 67 points. The Panthers are three points back, not to mention two points back of Toronto, who is third in their own division. The problem for Florida here is their recent form. They come in as losers of three in a row and have been outscored 11-4. Meanwhile, the Flyers are feeling pretty good about themselves following an impressive 7-2 win at Washington on Saturday. It was their fifth win in the past seven games, all five coming by 3+ goals. One of the two losses was in OT, but it’s the other that should have them quite motivated tonight. Last time playing at home, the Flyers turned in a horrendous effort in getting shutout 5-0 by last place New Jersey. That seems like an anomaly, however, as for the season they’ve gone 18-5-4 SU on home ice. I expect a much better showing tonight obviously. Florida has been shutout in two of its last three road games plus they were outscored 10-4 in the last two games at home. This downturn follows what had been the hottest stretch of the season for the Panthers as they’d won six in a row. Perhaps the All-Star Break came at the wrong time for them, but whatever the reason for the downturn, I expect it to continue tonight as there’s a big difference in the # of shots these teams have allowed recently (which works in Philly’s favor). 10* Philadelphia |
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02-09-20 | Kings v. Rangers -160 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
7* NY Rangers (6:05 ET): The Rangers took a tough loss Friday, losing here at home to Buffalo by a score of 3-2. While 11 pts off the playoff pace in the Eastern Conference, it’s not like NY is a bad team. They’re in the black when it comes to goal differential. This will be their 4th straight game where I’m playing on or against. Sadly, I’ve been on the wrong end of the last two. I took them against Buffalo and faded when they beat Toronto. Ironically, the one time I was right, they lost here at MSG to Dallas. However, I was “spot on” playing against the Kings last night as they were blanked 3-0 in New Jersey. That shutout loss kept LA firmly in the basement of the Pacific Division as their 43 points are second fewest in the sport. They also have a -43 goal differential, which is second worst in the sport. This is clearly a very bad team and it only makes sense to fade them in this second night of a back to back. They are 7-15 SU off a loss by 2+ goals. As mentioned in yday’s analysis, the Kings have been a dreadful road team this season. They’ve lost 24 of their 32 road games and been outscored by 1.2 goals per game. The Rangers can put goals on the board as they average 3.5 here at home. The Kings simply won’t be able to “keep up” considering they haven’t scored more than three times in any of their last 10 games (1-8-1 SU) and will be facing rookie sensation Igor Shesterkin in goal. He has a .922 save percentage in five starts w/ the team going 4-1. I see this as a total mismatch. 7* NY Rangers |
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02-08-20 | Kings v. Devils -119 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* New Jersey (7:05 ET): Two struggling teams facing off in East Rutherford, so why the strong opinion? Well, for starters, the Kings are just in a terrible way right now as they’ve dropped 11 of 13 w/ all but one of those losses coming in regulation. Here they find themselves in the midst of a four-game road trip out East and the first two games (against Washington and the Islanders) did not go well. New Jersey hasn’t been much better since the All-Star Break, but is coming off a shutout win at Philadelphia (5-0!) on Thursday. Poor play in the third period has plagued both clubs. The Kings were bit by that more recently, blowing leads of 2-0 and 3-1 to the Islanders Thursday. They gave up three goals in the third to fall to 8-19-4 SU on the road this season. There are only two teams in the league (Ottawa and Detroit) who have fewer road wins this season. Los Angeles really struggles at both ends of the ice (-1.1 gpg on the road), but giving up 4+ goals EIGHT times in the 2-10-1 stretch has really hurt. There’s nothing here to indicate a turnaround. The Kings are even 7-13 SU when facing fellow teams w/ losing records. The Devils were outshot severely in that 5-0 win at Philadelphia two nights ago. But they’ll take the two points after losing three straight here at home - all by one goal. The last time New Jersey won a home game was January 12th against a Tampa Bay team that came in red hot. If they can beat the Lightning, they can certainly beat the Kings. Furthermore, the length of time that has elapsed between home victories should have them highly motivated tonight. 10* New Jersey |
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02-08-20 | Predators v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Under Predators/Oilers (7:05 ET): The St. Louis Blues lead the Western Conference with 72 points. Behind the Stanley Cup Champs, 11 teams (7 of whom will make the playoffs) are separated by just eight points. These are two of them. Nashville has been pretty good on the road this year (15-9-3) and that has them fourth in the Central Division and one point back of the last Wild Card spot. Edmonton is safer (for now) as they are 3rd in the Pacific, but a 6-3 loss here at home to San Jose Thursday was not a “good look.” Most Edmonton games of late have been pretty high-scoring. The exception would be a shutout loss to Arizona (3-0) that took place earlier in the week. Other than that, every game the team has been involved in since Jan 6th has seen at least six total goals scored. Oddsmakers have taken notice by posting a high total for tonight’s game. When the Oilers hosted Nashville last month, it was a 4-2 final in their favor. That was an Under (O/U line was 6.5), the 5th time in the last 6 meetings these two have gone Under. The Predators have gone Under in three straight, none of those games seeing more than five total goals scored. So something will have to give Saturday. Over its L10 games, Nashville has scored three or fewer goals seven times. So that, combined with the history vs. Edmonton, leads me to the Under. The last three visits to Edmonton have all gone Under. The Oilers are 16-10 Under this year vs. teams that have losing records. 10* Under Predators/Oilers |
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02-07-20 | Sabres v. Rangers -170 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -170 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
7* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): After playing against the Rangers in their last two games (won one, lost one), I’ll back them here against a team that is really struggling and playing on no rest. Buffalo just lost for the fifth time in the last six games last night. It was against Detroit, the worst team in the league. While the Sabres did pick up a point by forcing overtime, they initially trailed 3-0 at home. That’s not good. The Rangers may be second to last in a tough Metropolitan Division, but they have a positive goal differential on the year. The Rangers are averaging a healthy 3.5 goals per game here at MSG and shouldn’t have much difficulty scoring tonight against a Sabres team that has given up 10 goals in the last two games. The Blueshirts just hung five goals on a good Toronto team Wednesday night. They’ve won three straight against sub.-500 foes and have really had Buffalo’s number the last few years, going 6-1 SU in seven head to head matchups. That includes 4-0 here at MSG including a 6-2 win back in October. The Sabres have a .333 win percentage over the last 28 games, so their struggles aren’t confined to just recent times. They have gone just 8-14-4 SU on the road this season. Only two teams (Ottawa, Detroit) have fewer road victories (ironically both division rivals!). Even worse is the fact Buffalo is 0-4 SU this season after playing three straight game at home. This being the second game of a back to back obviously doesn’t help matters. 7* NY Rangers |
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02-06-20 | Sharks v. Oilers -163 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -163 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
8* Edmonton (9:05 ET): The Oilers have only managed to split a quartet of games since the All-Star Break, but remain in second place in the Pacific with 62 points. They are only three points back of first place Vancouver, but only two ahead of fifth place Calgary, who they recently defeated 8-3 on the road. The last game didn’t go nearly as well though as the Oilers were blanked 3-0 at Arizona. They’ll look to rebound tonight vs. a San Jose team that has the worst overall goal differential (-39) in the Western Conference. Like the Oilers, the Sharks have managed to split four games since the All-Star Break. They too just won at Calgary, 3-1 on Tuesday, but an Alberta sweep seems unlikely based on the fact this club hasn’t won B2B road games since Jan 2-4. Since a decent 15-12-1 start to the season, the Sharks are just 8-15-3 SU. There have been only two occasions total where they’ve won B2B games during that time. Early in the season, these division rivals split a pair of games in San Jose. The road has generally been unkind to San Jose where they are 9-14-3. It’s not just a bad record either. They’re getting outscored by 1.2 goals per game on the road. That’s the fourth worst differential in the league right now, ahead of only Ottawa, New Jersey and Detroit. Edmonton is 8-2-2 its last 12 games and has gone 11-4 this year when off a loss by 2+ goals. 8* Edmonton |
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02-06-20 | Canucks v. Wild -120 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The Wild are in last place in the Central Division with only 54 points. But keep the following in mind. That’s easily the most points any of the four last place teams in the league have. The Wild are also just six points back of the Wild Card in the Western Conference. If they are to make a move, it has to be now when they are in the midst of a long stretch of games at home. The last six games have all been played here in the Twin Cities and after tomorrow’s game at Dallas, the next four will be as well. Tonight is a game vs. Vancouver. What should immediately jump out to you here is the last place team in the Central is a slight favorite over the first place team in the Pacific. Obviously, home ice advantage needs to be factored in, but who’s favored here should be a real “eye-opener.” Of course, the Wild are a much better team at home than they are on the road. They have a 15-7-4 record here at the XCel Center as opposed to 9-15-2 SU on the road. In addition to beating Chicago Tuesday night, Minnesota owns victories over Tampa Bay and Dallas (7-0!) on this current homestand. Now the Canucks did come here on January 12th and pick up a 4-1 victory. But I don’t like their chances of winning twice here in Minnesota. This is the end of a five-game road trip for the Canucks and the last two haven’t gone well as they’ve lost to Carolina and Boston, the latter coming in shutout fashion Tuesday (4-0). The situation here totally favors a Wild team that had to play short-handed EIGHT different times in the last meeting w/ Vancouver. 10* Minnesota |
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02-05-20 | Maple Leafs -133 v. Rangers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:35 ET): I was surprised to see the Maple Leafs lose their last game, Monday to Florida (5-3), as they were at home and by all reports the recipient of the “sharper” wagering. The Leafs came into that game on a three-game win streak, but now sit one point back of the Panthers, who lost an overtime game in Columbus last night. It’s not like the Leafs weren’t in position to win Monday’s game. They led 2-1 going into the third period. It also didn’t help that goalie Frederik Andersen had to exit the game with a concussion. Meanwhile, I was certainly NOT surprised to see the Rangers lose 5-3 on Monday. After all, I played their opponent. That was the Dallas Stars, a team that has given up the fewest goals in the league this season. Toronto isn’t exactly as sharp in that department, but maybe they don’t have to be considering the Rangers have averaged just 2.2 goals over their L5 games. The only two wins NY has during that time have come at the expense of the league’s worst team, Detroit. Both teams come into this game w/ issues between the pipes. Andersen’s status remains uncertain after leaving the game vs. Florida. For the Rangers, it’s a murkier situation as they are juggling netminders even though it’s pretty clear Henrik Lundqvist is an inferior option when compared to Alexandar Georgiev. Andersen’s backup, Michael Hutchinson, has won his L4 starts. Georgiev, while better than Lundqvist, still only has an .890 save percentage at home. So Toronto, who averages a league-best 3.8 gpg on the road, should “steal” one here. 10* Toronto |
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02-04-20 | Golden Knights v. Lightning -170 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
7* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): Even when they were languishing as low as fifth place in the Atlantic Division, my outlook the Lightning remained pretty optimistic due to a goal differential that was among the league’s best. Sure enough, they’ve quickly risen up the standings and are now second in the division, behind only Boston. Their YTD goal differential of +43 is the league’s best right now and LY’s Presidents Trophy winners have gone 15-2-1 SU the L18 games overall. Since returning from the All-Star Break, the Lightning have gone 3-0-1, the lone loss in OT @ Dallas. All four games were on the road, the latest resulting in a 3-0 shutout of San Jose. Tonight marks the 1st game in TB since January 14th and only the third game here since Jan 9th. This fact is a big deal as the Lightning are a dominant home team, averaging 4.1 goals per game here and outscoring opponents by 1.2 gpg. Both figures are league bests. I’m a little stunned that we are able to grab them at this kind of price. Vegas is also off a 3-0 win, theirs coming at Nashville on Sunday. That put the Golden Knights into third place in the relatively wide-open Pacific Division. But a big key here is that this will be their SEVENTH consecutive road game and third since the Break. The Knights don’t score enough on the road (2.9 gpg) so it’s difficult for me to envision them keeping pace with the Lightning, who are 8-0 vs. the Pacific Division this year and 7-0-1 SU L8 home games. 7* Tampa Bay |
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02-03-20 | Stars -135 v. Rangers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
9* Dallas (7:05 ET): More and more, I’m liking the Stars’ chances of finishing at least third in the Central Division, which would of course guarantee them a spot in the playoffs. Right now, they’re tied with Colorado for second, six points back of defending Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis. The key with the Stars is that they have given up the fewest number of goals in the league (129). Every other team in the Western Conference has allowed at least 19 more goals. I look for another strong effort in goal tonight. The Rangers are the opposition tonight and they are coming off a home and home sweep of Detroit to start their second half. Really, the Rangers couldn’t have asked for a more favorable way to come out of the All-Star Break then with two games against the worst team in hockey. Saturday in the Motor City, they shut the Red Wings out 1-0. It was just the third shutout win of the year for NY and the bad news is they are 0-2 SU off the prior two. Despite the two straight wins, the Rangers remain well off the playoff pace in the Eastern Conference. Dallas went to New Jersey on Saturday and won 3-2. It was the third consecutive game scoring exactly three goals, a good sign given what a good job they do at preventing the opposing team from scoring. The Stars have also beaten Tampa Bay since coming back from the All-Star Break. All nine goals scored by the team since the Break have come at even strength as they’ve gone 0 for 14 on the power play. Considering the Rangers are just 22nd in penalty killing, don’t be surprised if the Stars break out of their recent PP slump and score once or twice w/ the man advantage here. 9* Dallas |
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02-02-20 | Blue Jackets v. Canadiens OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
10* Over Blue Jackets/Canadiens (2:05 ET): Columbus had been surging as they went into the All-Star Break on a six-game win streak that included THREE shutouts. But in their first game since the Break, they lost 2-1 to Buffalo yesterday. The game went to overtime and obviously didn’t feature much offense as the two teams combined for just 47 shots. With all the shutouts, Columbus games have generally been low-scoring of late as yesterday marked their seventh Under in the last eight games. Montreal has also been going Under with regularity of late. Their 4-0 shutout of Florida on Saturday made it a 7-1-1 Under run as they’ve allowed 1 or 0 goals five different times during that stretch. Yesterday’s blanking of the Panthers was quite impressive considering Florida came in on a six-game win streak where they’d tallied 4+ goals in every win. But it was also the third time in the last five games in which the Habs scored 4 or more times. They are averaging 3.6 goals per game during that stretch. Something worth monitoring here is the goalie situation seeing as this is the second game of a back to back for both times. Columbus has indicated they are again going with Elvis Merzlikins, but note he has a losing record in road starts as his save percentage dips to .907. For Montreal, Carey Price has given up seven goals in the two previous meetings with the Blue Jackets this season. The Canadiens’ PK was able to go 6 for 6 yday, which seems a little fortunate. 10* Over Blue Jackets/Canadiens |
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02-02-20 | Canucks v. Hurricanes -170 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
10* Carolina (2:05 ET): For the benefit of those who may not be paying attention, I’ll let you in on the fact that the NHL’s Eastern Conference is much stronger (and deeper) than the Western Conference this season. Out West, there are only seven clubs sporting positive goal differentials. In the East, there are 12, including seven alone from the Metropolitan Division where Carolina hails and is currently in sixth place. The Hurricanes have a +26 goal differential YTD, which is sixth best in the entire league, yet would NOT be a playoff team as of the current standings. Vancouver comes into Sunday leading the Pacific Division with 64 points. That’s only three more points than Carolina has. The Canucks have a +17 goal differential and are on a five-game win streak after beating the Islanders yday 4-3. That game went into OT, making this a tougher than usual back to back plus it’s an afternoon game. The Canucks were outshot by the Isles 37-24 (17-5 in third period), so they should consider themselves fortunate to have won. Carolina is not only more rested than Vancouver here, but likely more motivated based on where they are in the standings. ‘Canes HC Rod Brind’Amour ripped the effort of his team in a 4-3 home loss to Vegas on Friday, the only game that they have played since the All-Star Break. The Canucks will be playing their 4th game since the Break today. Carolina has revenge for a 1-0 loss in OT at Vancouver back in December. But they are 17-9-1 SU at home, averaging 3.4 goals per game (allowing only 2.5). The Canucks are only 13-13-1 SU on the road and giving up 3.4 gpg. 10* Carolina |
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01-31-20 | Bruins v. Jets +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
6* Puck Line Winnipeg (8:05 ET): Please note this is a puck line play only where I am backing the Jets at +1.5. Heading into the All-Star Break, the Jets were not playing well. They’d lost six of seven while being outscored 26-15. However, three of the six losses were by only one goal. With all the time off to recoup, I am looking for an inspired effort out of Winnipeg tonight as Boston comes calling. As impressive as the Bruins are at home (only two regulation losses!), they are just 12-8-3 SU on the road. This is also Boston’s first game since the All-Star Break. The Atlantic Division leaders have 70 points and have been in first place virtually the entire season. That said, they have lost three of the last five games and all three of those losses were on the road. The Bruins are just .500 in January and while one of their five wins came at the Jets expense, that was a) at home and b) by a one-goal margin. Again, I’ll gladly take another one goal game here. In fact, the last three times these teams have met, every game has been decided by one goal. Winnipeg won both last year. This is the Jets’ longest losing streak of the season, so they should obviously be highly motivated coming out of the Break. 6* Puck Line Winnipeg (+1.5) |
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01-30-20 | Canadiens v. Sabres -102 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (7:05 ET): The Sabres wasted what I thought was a golden opportunity to pick up two points Tuesday. In their first game after the All-Star Break, they lost 5-2 (at home) to an Ottawa team that was coming off a disheartening loss in a shootout the night prior. Despite them wasting that opportunity, I look for the Sabres to bounce back tonight. Again they are at home and facing a division foe beneath them in the standings. This time it’s Montreal, who they beat here on home ice back in October. Technically, these teams are tied with 51 points. But Buffalo has more one more non-shootout victory, despite having played one fewer game. It has not been a good last month or so for the Canadiens, who have dropped 10 of their last 14 games including one on Monday at home vs. Washington. The Habs were beaten 4-2 in their first game after the Break and gave up 40 shots on goal. It should be pointed out they have just two wins in regulation since X-Mas and have suffered TWO eight-game losing streaks since mid-November. As I discussed when they hosted Ottawa, Buffalo is capable of scoring plenty of goals. They average 3.4 goals per game at home, which is top 10 in the league. Top goalie Linus Ullmark is out after injuring his leg vs. Ottawa, but you can look past that as the Sabres have won four of five against the Habs, regardless of who is in goal. Montreal has plenty of issues between the pipes themselves and is 7-15 SU this season after giving up 4+ goals the previous game. 10* Buffalo |
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01-29-20 | Flames +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
6* Puck Line Calgary (10:05 ET): Please note that this a Puck Line play only where I am backing the Flames +1.5. This renewal of the “Battle of Alberta” comes at a time where both Calgary and Edmonton are in playoff position. Despite losing last night, the Flames picked up a point (shootout) and thus moved into second place in the Pacific by their lonesome, ahead of the Oilers and two other teams. Calgary is already 2-0 vs. their provincial rival this season and I see them doing no worse than a 1-goal loss here. The Oilers have not played since the All-Star Break. They headed into the Break having won five of six, scoring plenty of goals in the process. But the lone defeat suffered during that stretch came in Calgary w/ a power play goal being the difference in a 4-3 final. I realize the situation seems favorable towards Edmonton here as they are rested (while Calgary played last night) and have revenge. But all that time off may have the Oilers rusty tonight and thus prone to a slow start. Last night was Calgary’s 1st loss in a SO this season (were previously 5-0). Ironically, the Blues had been winless in shootouts. The Flames lost despite three PP goals, which is tough when you’re at home. But in the end, the Oilers give up 3.6 goals per game at home, which is too many to believe they can win this game by multiple goals. It’s the most goals per game given up by any team in the league at home. 6* Puck Line Calgary (+1.5) |
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01-28-20 | Senators v. Sabres -184 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -184 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
6* Buffalo (7:05 ET): The Sabres have a lot of work to do if they are to make the postseason for the first time in nine years. They currently are 10 points back from where they need to be, that being the Wild Card or third place in the Atlantic. If they are to make a move, the time is probably now as tonight starts a five-game run on home ice. This looks like an easy two points to me as they face division also-ran Ottawa, who just played last night and lost in a shootout. The Senators fell 4-3 at home to New Jersey Monday, their first game after the All-Star Break. Despite the fact they allowed 53 shots on goal, it’s a game the Sens “should have” won. I say this because they scored not one, but TWO short-handed goals in the third period. They had the lead until 3:21 was left in regulation. None of Ottawa’s goals last night came at even strength (other was on power play). The road has been unkind to this club as they are 5-17-2 SU and being outscored by 1.6 goals per game. That’s the 2nd worst goal differential in the league in road games (Detroit). Buffalo can definitely score here at home where they are averaging 3.5 goals per game w/ a solid shooting percentage of 11.8. They are top 10 in the league in goals per game scored at home. While they did lose their final game before the Break (2-1 at Nashville), the Sabres had won three in a row prior to that, scoring 13 goals in the process. They’ve also got revenge here for a 3-1 loss in Ottawa right before X-Mas where they finished with a 44-29 edge in shots. The Sabres are definitely the better team here, they’re in a better situation and Ottawa has won just once in its past 10 games. 6* Buffalo |
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01-27-20 | Ducks v. Sharks -140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
9* San Jose (10:35 ET): The Sharks come out of the All-Star Break with the worst goal differential in the Western Conference and on a three-game losing streak. But this appears to be one of the better spots to take them as they are at home facing another “also-ran” from the division. That would be Anaheim, whose resume is pretty comparable despite B2B road wins before the Break. Not since starting the season 3-0 have the Ducks won three straight games. They have just ONE win in regulation since December 3rd! This being a home game is a huge boon for San Jose, who has not gotten to play many games the “The Tank” recently. The entirety of the Sharks’ current three-game skid came on the road as they were outscored 14-4 by Arizona, Vancouver and Colorado, all of whom are top tier Western Conference teams. Anaheim is not, nor are the Ducks a good road team. Yes, they did win B2B road games before the Break. But they have lost 17 of 25 on the road this season while averaging only 2.28 goals per game! That scoring average is 4th worst in the league on the road. The Sharks are one of the three teams below them, so again, good for them that this game takes place in San Jose. The Sharks have played only 3 of their last 11 games at home and won them all, allowing just three total goals in the process. Anaheim has one of the league’s worst scoring differentials on the road (-1.12 gpg). A big difference for these teams is their respective records vs. fellow sub-.500 foes. San Jose is 12-6 SU while Anaheim is 6-12. 9* San Jose |
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01-22-20 | Jets v. Blue Jackets -169 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* Columbus (7:35 ET): The Blue Jackets are red hot and look to remain that way heading into the All-Star Break. Winners of five straight, they are locked in a tight battle within the Metro for potential playoff position. Right now, they are fifth in the division and would be the final Wild Card team. But a win here would enable them to leapfrog Carolina going into the Break. During this five-game win streak, the Blue Jackets have posted three shutouts and outscored opponents 16-3. Out West, Winnipeg is in a similar position trying to battle for a playoff spot. But right now they’d be on the outside looking in. They are three points back and have lost three in a row, getting outscored 16-4 in the process. They’ve also dropped five of the last six. So, in terms of momentum (still hate that word!) going into the Break, it’s a very different deal with these two teams. This will also be the Jets’ third road game in four nights. All have been out East. Columbus has revenge for a 4-3 loss up in Manitoba back in November. But this time they are at home and they are a lot stingier here, giving up only 2.2 goals per game. Only two teams - Philadelphia and Dallas - have allowed fewer goals at home this year. Winnipeg also gives up far too many shots per game (34.3 per game on the road). Recent form is too difficult to ignore here and the line being steamed up this morning only serves to confirm my view on this matchup. 10* Columbus |
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01-21-20 | Golden Knights v. Bruins -145 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:05 ET): I like the Bruins quite a bit here. Excluding losses that occurred beyond regulation, this is a team that’s gone 16-2 SU on home ice this season. Tonight, they are hosting a team that knows all too well the power that home ice advantage can have. For the first two years of its existence, Vegas was nearly unbeatable at home. But this year, there’s been a “leveling off” of sorts for the Golden Knights, who are basically just a .500 team. They are 25-19-7 SU overall and simply not in the Bruins’ class. Vegas has lost five out of its last six and this game comes at the end of a four-game East Coast trip. They’ve already lost at both Buffalo and Montreal with a win over lowly Ottawa squeezed in between. While they’ve had the last two days off, the Golden Knights are 0-4 SU this season coming off three or more consecutive road games. Boston is a team they haven’t fared well against in their short existence, losing four of the five all-time matchups, including 4-3 in Las Vegas back in October. The Bruins come in having lost three of four, but all three losses were on the road. They won the front end of a home and home with Pittsburgh, 4-1, before losing on the road Sunday. But Boston held an early 3-0 lead in Pittsburgh and probably should have been able to put that one away. Knowing they let two points slip away, the Bruins should come out very focused on motivated here tonight. Vegas has trailed by 3+ goals in three of its last five games. 8* Boston |
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01-20-20 | Red Wings v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 109 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
10* Over Red Wings/Avalanche (3:05 ET): Colorado has come on strong these last two games, beating San Jose 4-0 and St. Louis 5-3. That pair of victories now has them in second place in the Central Division w/ 60 pts, eight back of the first place Blues. They’ve got the Western Conference’s best goal differential (+33), so it would certainly appear as if this club is going to have a productive second half of the season. With 173 goals scored in 48 games, the Avs are the West’s highest scoring team. Detroit is the worst team in all of hockey. They are in last place in the Atlantic with just 28 points. To put that number in its proper perspective, every other team in the league has at least 41 points. The Red Wings also have a -85 YTD goal differential. To put that number in proper perspective, the next worst goal differential in the league is -47. So things are looking rather bleak in the Motor City right now. The team’s biggest issue is that they have given up the most goals in the league. So an Avs team that’s among the league leaders in scoring certainly looks to be a poor matchup. While the Red Wings are also last in the league in goals scored, we can count on Colorado doing most of the heavy lifting here anyway. The Avalanche have scored nine goals in the last two games alone. They average 3.8 goals per game on the season while Detroit gives up 4.2 on the road. Getting four or five goals here from the Avs is a very strong possibility, so the hope is that the Red Wings can get at least two. The Over is 6-2 in Colorado’s last eight home games. 10* Over Red Wings/Avalanche |
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01-19-20 | Blue Jackets v. Rangers -120 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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01-18-20 | Devils +1.5 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
7* Puck Line New Jersey (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only. I am backing the Devils at +1.5. Columbus has surged recently, winning three straight and 7 of its last 9 games. But do not count out the underdog in this one. Over the last four games, New Jersey has played Washington twice, Tampa Bay and Toronto. That’s a tough gauntlet. They won at Washington and also snapped the Lightning’s long win streak. So they are certainly capable of pulling the upset here. Even with the “surge” here in 2020, the Blue Jackets still grade out as a pretty average team. They’ve scored just one more goal than what they’ve allowed over the course of the season. Prior to these L3 games, they obviously had a negative goal differential. Also note that three of Columbus’ last six wins came by one goal. That result would give us a win here based on how we’re playing this matchup. New Jersey has scored only one fewer goal than Columbus this season. The big difference then is obviously the other side of the ledger where the Blue Jackets have allowed basically 40 fewer goals. But they’re also only 3-10 SU in Saturday games this season. C-bus was outshot 34-18 by Carolina its last game. New Jersey’s power play is set to improve as they have gotten healthier. 7* Puck Line New Jersey (+1.5) |
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01-18-20 | Kings v. Flyers -152 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Up next in the 3-pack is the Flyers, who could REALLY use a win here as they’ve fallen off the furious pace set by the top four teams in the Metro. In fact, they’ve actually fallen into sixth place in the division, thanks to a less than stellar start to the New Year. They’ve lost six of nine overall and just dropped a game to Montreal here at home on Thursday. But this is also a team that prior to that 4-1 defeat had just beaten both Boston and St. Louis, last year’s two Stanley Cup Finalists. Los Angeles has a lot bigger concerns than Philly right now. They are the last place team in the Pacific and their 41 points are the fewest in the whole Western Conference. They’ve lost six of their last seven games, including three straight on the road. Tonight marks the end of a week-long trip that began with them getting shutout last Saturday in Carolina. Since then, it’s been subsequent 4-3 losses to Tampa Bay and Florida. This is a revenge game for the Flyers, who lost 5-3 out in LA on New Year’s Eve. That came in the middle of a six-game West Coast swing and they lost the next three games as well. But the Flyers have been a much better home team this year, going 15-4-4 SU in the City of Brotherly Love and their scoring differential here is quite large as they average 3.5 goals per game while giving up only 2.3. Everything here points to the Flyers getting revenge for that loss on New Year’s Eve. LA trailed 4-0 at one point in its last game. 8* Philadelphia |
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01-18-20 | Flames -150 v. Senators | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -150 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
8* Calgary (4:00 ET): The Flames are tied for the Pacific Division lead with 57 points, but a negative goal differential (-9) for the year would seem to indicate that they’ve overachieved. Certainly, the club is nowhere near as dominant as it was a season ago when it finished first in the entire Western Conference with 107 points. Normally, that distinction might have me looking to fade, but Calgary is lucky here in that they are drawing a very weak opponent. Ottawa not only has a -36 goal differential this year, they’ve also lost nine in a row and are second to last in the Atlantic Division. If playing against Ottawa seems familiar, well, that’s because I just did on Thursday. It was a win with Vegas, right here in Canada’s capital city. The Golden Knights prevailed 4-2, outshooting the Senators 43-35 and it was 4-1 before Ottawa notched a relatively meaningless power play goal with 7:30 to go. The Sens have been outscored 38-19 during their losing streak, a 2:1 margin, and that’s a frighteningly low number of total goals scored. Despite still being “in the red” goal differential wise, the Flames have won six of their last seven games. The only loss was a head-scratcher at Montreal, a team that (like Ottawa) came in on a long losing streak. Because they lost that game, I expect the Flames to be “on their toes” here, just like they were in an impressive win at Toronto Thursday night. A win here makes it a winning trip through Eastern Canada. In Calgary, the Flames had no problem beating the Senators 3-1 in late November. They were priced very high for that game so we’re getting a bargain here on the road. 8* Calgary |
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01-16-20 | Golden Knights -180 v. Senators | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
6* Vegas (7:35 ET): The Golden Knights just fired the only coach they’d ever known, Gerard Gallant, midway through their third season of existence. Of course, Gallant led the franchise all the way to the Stanley Cup Final back in its expansion year. But this year the club wasn’t playing up to its potential. Tuesday’s 4-2 home loss to Buffalo gives Vegas its second four-game losing streak of 2019-20. Peter DeBoer, recently fired by rival San Jose, takes over behind the bench and will look to right this ship. Fortunately for DeBoer, his first game is against a team that’s on a losing streak twice as long as the Golden Knights! Ottawa has dropped eight in a row as they continue to languish well beyond the pack in the Eastern Conference. The Senators have just 40 points this year, second fewest in the East and third fewest in the entire league. Vegas might be on a losing streak, but they are in much better position over in the West with 54 points. Ottawa hasn’t scored more than three goals in any of their eight straight losses. Vegas is 4-1 SU all-time vs. Ottawa including a 3-2 win back in November. Yes, four of the Senators’ eight straight losses have come after regulation and they led Chicago 2-0 on Tuesday. But after the coaching change, you can bet the Golden Knights are going to come out highly motivated. They are a good team in a slump. Ottawa is simply bad. 6* Vegas |
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01-15-20 | Flyers v. Blues -165 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
7* St. Louis (8:05 ET): The Blues keep chugging along. I think it’s important to remember that while this club went on to win the Stanley Cup, at this point last year, they were near the very bottom of the league in points. The incredible finish to the season that they had has clearly carried over as they lead the Central Division with 67 points and have won four in a row. I like their chances tonight at home vs. the Flyers. Philadelphia is off a very lucky win as they rallied back to beat Boston in a shootout after trailing. The game ended with one of the more embarrassing gaffes that you’ll ever see. Before that come from behind victory, the Flyers had lost five of six. Their last four road games have all ended in defeat and they are being outscored by a full goal per game on the road this year. St. Louis is +1.0 goals per game for the year at home. Philly is very much a fringe playoff team in the Eastern Conference while St. Louis is the class of the Western Conference right now. There’s little to suggest that the Flyers can win this game as the Blues have suffered only four regulation defeats in the Gateway City all season long. The Blues are 15-5 SU this season after scoring 4+ goals in their last game and they are off a 4-1 win against Anahiem. 7* St. Louis |
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01-14-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -141 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -141 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
10* Colorado (9:05 ET): I’m on the record as being a “believer” in the Avalanche. But they need to start winning some games. Three straight losses have dropped them to third in the Central Division, 10 points behind first place St. Louis (entering play on Monday). But Tuesday night is an opportunity to move back into second place as they host the team that’s just one point ahead, that being Dallas. I sense the Avs will be in full on “desperation mode” here and will back them in this spot. The reason I continue to be so optimistic about Colorado’s future has to do with their goal differential. It’s consistently been one of the best in the entire Western Conference. Currently, even with the three-game losing streak, their +28 GD is the best in the West (note: this is being written before the completion of St. Louis’ game Monday night). I’ve long been a believer that scoring differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team’s current won-loss record. The Avs will have had three days off since losing in OT to Pittsburgh. Dallas saw a six-game win streak end Saturday in San Jose. That was a bit of a shocker considering where the Sharks have been in the standings most of the year. Then again, the schedule may be catching up with the Stars. Tonight is the end of four-game trip for them. Colorado will be even more motivated here by the fact they are 0-3 vs. the Stars this year. I’ve got them as the better overall club, so this is a good line we’re getting and the Avs are 5-2 SU the L7x playing with three or more days rest. 10* Colorado |
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