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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -4 | 41-33 | Loss | -107 | 99 h 40 m | Show | |
Take New England (#102) I have no strong opinion on the total for the Super Bowl. I do, however, have an opinion on the side; betting on the Patriots in a game I expect them to win. There is a case to be made for Philadelphia. Super Bowl Favorites have not done well, covering only four pointspreads in the last 16 Super Bowls, one of which came in OT. Philly has the better statistical defense and they certainly don’t have an overall talent deficit against New England. And chalk has NOT been the way to go in any previous New England Super Bowl in the modern era, with the dog going 6-0 ATS in regulation in Patriots Super Bowls (their win over the Seahawks came priced at pick ‘em). I can understand the case for Philly, but I don’t agree with it. The case for New England is a good notch or two stronger! Let me start with this. The most public team in the NFL – the defending Super Bowl champs, the dynasty team – has been consistently UNDER-valued in the betting marketplace. Since the start of the 2016 campaign, the Pats are a ridiculous 28-9 ATS, cashing one winning bet after the next. How good has Belichick been from a pointspread perspective? How about this doozy --- ZERO losing ATS seasons over the last ten years, despite the fact that they’ve been a ‘public’ team the entire time! How does this happen & why is the ‘sharp’ money fading New England week after week? Simple – the wiseguys are fixated with statistics, and the Patriots statistics aren’t elite. New England gives up yardage in bunches on defense – they’ve done it all year long. Philly has the superior defensive stats, for sure. But New England’s defensive stats don’t tell the true story. Their elite special teams force teams onto long fields, allowing them to gain extra yardage on drive after drive. Their red zone defense is top notch, holding teams to field goal tries. And, frankly, the Pats defensive stats have been lying since October – they were awful for the first four games of the season, numbers that still have a significant impact on their overall stats here in FEBRUARY! That’s not the only pro-Patriots piece of the equation. We’ve got the classic Super Bowl ‘value’ situation, with one team coming in off a near perfect game while the other is coming in off a non-covering struggle. Teams off a blowout vs. teams off a non-cover is a simple handicap – the betting public remembers what they just saw, leaving value on the other side. And that betting public also remembers favorites in previous Patriots Super Bowls going 0-6 ATS in regulation (the Seahawks Super Bowl was a pick ‘em). Strength of schedule matters too. My numbers are very clear on this one. Based on MY power rating numbers the week of the game (not end of the season cumulative numbers), the Eagles faced the single weakest schedule of any playoff team; getting the right team at the right time over and over again. New England in the Super Bowl cannot be considered the ‘right team at the right time’….. Nick Foles couldn’t move the football against the Raiders, Cowboys or Falcons, as the Eagles scored a grand total of 34 points in their three games prior to the NFC Championship. Then against the Vikings, Foles had a near perfect game. I’m expecting ‘regular’ Foles in a game of this magnitude away from home, not ‘best QB in the NFL’ Foles like we saw against Minnesota. Last, but not least, experience matters. The Super Bowl is a unique animal – endless hype and distractions leading up to the game, a truly endless pregame that leaves players without adrenaline by kickoff, and a halftime show so long that Bill Belichick had his team sit for 40 minutes in practice this week just to get the feel for how long it was! A team that played in the big game last year has a legitimate edge against a team that didn’t. When we’re talking about seven previous Super Bowl trips for the Pats in the modern era compared to seven combined trips to the Super Bowl for the entirety of the Eagles roster, that matters. Potentially, it matters a lot! Pats by a TD or more. Take New England. |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -112 | 97 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Pittsburgh (#306) Here a link to the 18-0 angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two from recent seasons. And, of course, my clients and I cashed a winner betting against these same Jaguars last week using this same angle, despite the fact that the Bills made numerous crucial mistakes and didn’t move the football at all. Here’s an excerpt from last week’s write-up, loaded with anti-Jacksonville fodder. “Based on my power rating numbers for the week the games were played, the Jaguars played the single weakest schedule of any playoff team this year. That’s bad news when it comes to playoff time. This bet comes down to one additional factor for me: Blake Bortles. “The Jags had seven blowout wins this year by 16 points or more. Playing with a lead, Bortles was just fine: a 12-1 TD/INT ratio and a passer rating of 107.5. But in the other nine games – games where Bortles was asked to make plays for the Jags to win, his numbers were downright ugly: a 9-12 TD-INT ratio and a passer rating of 73.8 (Trevor Siemian territory). “This stat might be the best of the bunch. Blake Bortles led 26 drives this season in the fourth quarter or OT of one possession games (not counting a kneel down vs. Seattle or a last play Hail Mary INT vs. Tennessee). In those 26 possessions, Bortles produced a grand total of one touchdown, on a 38 yard drive against Arizona.” Blake Bortles is NOT a QB I can trust in a hostile road environment against a strong, playoff tested foe. The Jags were at home against the Bills last week and netted just 75 yards on Blake Bortles 25 drop-backs, not counting scrambles. In fact, on all plays OTHER than Bortles scrambles at home against the Bills, Jacksonville averaged just 2.8 yards per snap. Those are most assuredly NOT confidence inducing numbers. And make no mistake about it – the Steelers still remember the Jags coming into Heinz Field earlier in the season, intercepting five Ben Roethlisberger passes (two of them pick sixes) in a three touchdown win for the road team; the low point of the season for Pittsburgh. Defensive end Stephon Tuitt: “You know how we turn it up in the playoff games. The intensity level rises. People are more focused on the task at hand.” And Mike Tomlin knows what’s coming, the type of game where Pittsburgh’s gameplan is very clear: “They have as clearly a defined a mode of operation as anyone in this (playoff) field in terms of how they play. They run the ball. They control the clock. They have corresponding play action passes. They play formidable defense. They create turnovers. And that's how games unfold for them.” Pittsburgh’s offense wasn’t healthy or in rhythm when these teams met in October. This time around, they’re pretty darn health. Antonio Brown looks good to go off a full practice participation on Tuesday. JuJu Smith Shuster is coming off a nine catch, 143 yard performance in the season finale. Martavis Bryant, too, is in stellar current form, and Le’Veon Bell is fully healthy off two weeks sitting. The Jags defense ruled the day in the first meeting, but I expect the rematch to be very, very different. Big Ticket: Take the Steelers. |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 76 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#302) There’s a reason that we haven’t seen the #1 seed as a Divisional Round home underdog EVER in the HISTORY of the NFL Playoffs. And to see Atlanta laying a full -3 here is a pointspread that is out of whack with my current numbers. Let’s start with two basic facts: The Falcons aren’t as good this year compared to last year AND this Falcons team is anything BUT fresh heading into this matchup. Last year, Kyle Shanahan’s offense ranked #1 in the NFL in virtually every meaningful category. With basically the same personnel back this season, under Steve Sarkisian’s tutelage, the Falcons declined by 187 points scored this season – more than 12 points per game less than last year. Their yards per play dropped from 6.7 to 5.8. Last week, they converted on only one of eight tries at 3rd and 6 or longer, but a litany of Rams special teams mistakes early left Atlanta in ‘play with the lead’ territory. This week, I’m not so sure they’ll ever have a lead to play with! And the Falcons are anything but ‘rested and ready’ here off their West Coast game last week. Over the last three weeks, the Falcons have been in ‘playoff intensity’ mode every time – a short week off a Monday Night game at New Orleans, then Carolina at home, then their playoff opener last week in LA against the Rams. The Eagles over that same cycle? Home games vs. the Raiders and Cowboys (with many starters sitting against Dallas), then a bye week. Clearly, we should expect the home underdog will be better physically and mentally prepared. Nick Foles lit up the Rams after Carson Wentz got hurt; then threw four TD passes against the Giants the following week. But his last two starts were both downright ugly. But Foles grew up in Texas and went to school at Arizona – he did not fare well in the frigid conditions in Philly for their games against the Raiders and Cowboys to close out the regular season. But the weather forecast for Saturday’s game has temperatures above 40 degrees; MUCH warmer than it’s been in any recent Eagles home game. I’ll call it ‘Foles’ weather, especially with Philly facing off against a dome team. Last, but not least, let’s remember to give the Eagles defense proper credit. Jim Schwartz’s stop unit ranked in the top quartile of the NFL against both the run and the pass, based on Football Outsiders advanced metric stats. Those aren’t the type of defensive numbers that merit Philly as a home dog for this matchup – even with Foles behind center, Philly is the better of these two teams! Take the Eagles. |
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01-07-18 | Bills +9 v. Jaguars | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Buffalo (#105) Here a link to the angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two. That’s not the only angle in play to support the road dog in this matchup. There’s one more that stands out like a sore thumb; an angle that is 41-18-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs dating back to 2002, counting every game, every year! That angle is simple: take the team that faced the tougher schedule in the regular season, regardless of venue or pointspread. In this instance, it’s not even close. The Jaguars played the single weakest schedule of any playoff team this year. Buffalo faced the second hardest schedule (according to my numbers, tied with Carolina) based on my power rating number for their opponents on the week each game was played. This bet comes down to one additional factor for me: Blake Bortles. I understand that Buffalo is a flawed football team. I also understand that Blake Bortles has no business laying more than a touchdown in a playoff game! The Jags had seven blowout wins this year by 16 points or more. Playing with a lead, Bortles was just fine: a 12-1 TD/INT ratio and a passer rating of 107.5. But in the other nine games – games where Bortles was asked to make plays for the Jags to win, his numbers were downright ugly: a 9-12 TD-INT ratio and a passer rating of 73.8 (Trevor Siemian territory). This stat might be the best of the bunch. Blake Bortles led 26 drives this season in the fourth quarter or OT of one possession games (not counting a kneel down vs. Seattle or a last play Hail Mary INT vs. Tennessee). In those 26 possessions, Bortles produced a grand total of one touchdown, on a 38 yard drive against Arizona. This is NOT a QB I can trust in this pointspread range against a playoff opponent, period. Buffalo is flawed, and RB LeSean McCoy is banged up – hence the pointspread of more than a TD. But the Bills have won four of their last six overall – the only two losses coming against the Patriots – they’ve EARNED this playoff spot. The Bills have shown plenty of mettle on the highway, including SU wins as an underdog at Atlanta and Kansas City, as well as a wire-2-wire cover at Carolina. In their first playoff game of the 21st century, don’t expect the Bills to go down without a fight. Take the Bills. |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6.5 v. Rams | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 58 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#103) Here a link to the angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two. That’s not the only angle in play to support the road dog in this matchup. There’s one more that stands out like a sore thumb; an angle that is 41-18-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs dating back to 2002, counting every game, every year! That angle is simple: take the team that faced the tougher schedule in the regular season, regardless of venue or pointspread. In this instance, it’s not even close. My numbers show Atlanta as having faced the single toughest slate of opponents of any postseason team. LA? Not so much! I understand that Wade Phillips is an elite defensive coordinator, while Steve Sarkisian has had issues as a playcaller for the Falcons this season. But I also know that the Rams have zero playoff experience – Sean McVay hasn’t won a playoff game even as an assistant, neither has Jared Goff, Todd Gurley or any of LA’s skill position talent. The Falcons went to the Super Bowl last year and return the corps of that roster – proven moneymakers when the stakes rise in January. Dan Quinn in the playoffs (not counting neutral site Super Bowls) has gone 6-0 SU as the head coach or defensive coordinator. The Falcons have faced the Panthers twice, the Saints twice, Seattle, Dallas, New England and Minnesota over the course of their final 11 games, truly battle tested. They’ve gone 6-2 SU and ATS down the stretch, moneymakers! And it’s surely worth noting that this team almost never loses contact, suffering only one loss in the last two seasons by more than ten points (at New England). LA might win this, but don’t expect it to come easy. Take the Falcons. |
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12-31-17 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#307). This is what matters here. The Panthers will go into this game live for the NFC South title and a #2 seed. If they lose, they could fall as low as #5 and be on the road next week, instead of enjoying a bye. Even if the Saints get off to a big lead at Tampa, expect Ron Rivera to keep his starters in the game, because a win would mean a home game next week while a loss could send them on the road. Carolina gets back a pair of key defenders from suspension here, LB Thomas Davis and DE Charles Johnson. For a team that is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, the return of those two defenders adds a bit of swagger to this stop unit, especially considering that both guys are Georgia graduates, heading home. This defense has forced 17 turnovers during that eight game span, and they’re coming off a seven sack effort against Tampa Bay last week. But more than any other factor, this is a bet AGAINST the Falcons in a ‘must win’ game. Atlanta has a grand total of three wins by more than a field goal since September. They beat the 5-10 Jets by five points. They beat Dallas when the Cowboys were completely falling apart in the first game of Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension. And they beat the 4-11 Bucs in a ‘Ryan Fitzpatrick’ game for Tampa. That’s not exactly a track record of beating good teams by margin! Steve Sarkisian is no Kyle Shanahan when it comes to designing an offense or calling plays. Atlanta’s scoring output is a shell of what it was under Shanahan — they’ve scored just 9, 20, 24 and 13 points in their last four games, down nearly two TD’s per game compared to last year. Must win or not, the Falcons are laying more than a field goal to a team that’s better than them, a clear ‘bet-against’ situation for this false favorite. Take the Panthers. |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-15 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Jacksonville (#311) Let me start with this basic premise, a premise that has been thoroughly validated by the first 16 weeks of the NFL season: At full strength, the Jaguars are a better team than the Titans. And while Tennessee beat Jacksonville by three touchdowns back in Week 2, the Jags team they faced then is a very different team at this stage of the campaign. That makes this quote from Doug Marrone stand out: “Make no mistake about it so there’s not a lot of talk about it during the week: We’re going to play to win and we’re going to do everything possible to win this game, period. I’m not even thinking about what happens beyond that. That’s the way we’re going to go about our business this week.” The Jags were no-shows in San Fran last Sunday, a rarity for a team that has stepped up rather well this season. It’s surely worth noting that they’ve gone 4-0 SU and ATS off their four previous losses this season, winning each and every one of those games by 20 points or more and covering every spread by a double digit margin. Two of those four wins came as underdogs, a third came as a short favorite. Now that, folks, is a track record worthy of support! Tennessee is anything BUT a confident team at this stage of the campaign. They’ve lost three straight ‘must win’ games, including a home game against the Rams last week, falling apart with the outcome very much in doubt when it mattered most — the fourth quarter. Incredibly, the Titans last win and cover against a competitive foe (not counting the bottom feeders) came back in Week 3 against the Seahawks. Mike Mularkey certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence for this bettor in a ‘must win’ game as chalk against a focused foe that is the superior squad. Big Ticket: Take the Jaguars. |
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12-31-17 | Texans v. Colts -3.5 | 13-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Indianapolis (#316). The premise here is simple. You can stick a fork in the Houston Texans because they are done. They’ve lost each of their last five games by a touchdown or more, the last four defeats all coming by double digit margins. Each of the last two losses has been completely non-competitive: 45-7 to Jacksonville and 34-6 to Pittsburgh. I recognize that Indy isn’t Jacksonville or Pittsburgh. I also recognize when a team has thrown in the towel….. Houston has simply had too many injuries. Deshaun Watson was a spark, but he suffered a season ender. So did JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus and D’Onta Foreman and CJ Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin. WR Will Fuller has a cracked rib and hasn’t had more than 50 receiving yards in a game since October. DeAndre Hopkins — the team’s only legit threat — hasn’t practiced all week and is likely to miss the first game of his five year NFL career on Sunday. A meaningless season finale on the highway is most assuredly not a ‘step-up’ spot for this sorry squad at the tail end of a dismal campaign. We saw last week what a popular coach can do for team morale in what is likely to be his last home game when the ‘dead’ Bengals came up strong and knocked the Lions out of playoff contention. Reading between the lines of the quotes coming out of Indy this week, I’m expecting a ‘step-up’ effort for Chuck Pagano in Week 17. Unlike the Texans, the Colts have shown plenty of fight down the stretch in competitive losses like the one they suffered last week at Baltimore. Pagano: "Last rodeo. It's our last ride together. ... What better way than to go out with a win?” I expect Indy to get that victory in relatively easy fashion, a game that has legitimate blowout potential despite the Colts season long struggles. Take the Colts. |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles -9 | 10-19 | Push | 0 | 83 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#132) We’ve got a clear ‘bet-on’ team vs. an equally clear ‘bet-against’ squad on Monday Night Football this week. Philly was sloppy last week against the Giants, to put it mildly, allowing a bottom tier Giants offense to gain more than 500 yards and four TD’s against them. Head coach Doug Pederson was not amused. “Can’t play like this and win in the postseason. Got to come prepared. And when I say prepared, I think from a mental standpoint, that emotion, that sense of urgency, that dominating swagger that you want to see your team come out aggressing with.” Veteran safety Malcolm Jenkins was not amused either: “I think each one of us needs to take a look a hard look at ourselves and be critical and evaluate where we can be better, whether that’s knowing the opponent better or knowing the scheme better. We’re going to need everybody to execute. It’s a race to get better right now.” How about veteran LB Nigel Bradham: “We don’t need nobody to tell us we’ve got to do better. We see it just like everybody else. One thing about us is we’ve all got chips on our shoulders. We want to get better. We’re going to challenge ourselves. We’ll get that corrected.” Given those quotes, and given the fact that a win here will clinch the #1 seed for the Eagles, I’m anticipating an elite team bringing their ‘A’ game on Christmas Night. The Raiders cannot be expected to match that level of play after their season essentially ended with Derek Carr’s goal line fumble last Sunday Night. Oakland won’t have left tackle Donald Penn, ending his streak of 170 consecutive starts for the Raiders. The defensive line will be playing without Mario Edwards Jr and Treyvon Hester. Starting receivers Michael Crabtree (concussion) and Amari Cooper (ankle) are questionable at best, neither likely to be at 100% if they suit up. We’ve seen the Raiders let go of the rope repeatedly on the highway this season, losing by 17 at Washington, by 20 at Buffalo, by 25 vs. New England in Mexico City and by 11 (they trailed 26-0 in that game) at KC. No surprise here if the energy to fight from behind is rather limited for this disappointing squad. There’s some chance that the Packers beat the Vikings on Saturday Night as nine point underdogs, clinching the #1 seed for the Eagles before kickoff. This quote from Doug Pederson leaves me confident that Philly will come to play anyway, saving the ‘resting starters’ thing for Week 17:”You’ve got to maintain that confidence and that dominating swagger and you’ve got to keep that alive.” Take the Eagles. |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 55 h 41 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#124) I could put ten quotes in this spot, but I’m only going to use three. But make no mistake about it – from a mental standpoint, the 49ers have been completely transformed with Jimmy Garappolo behind center. WR Marquise Goodwin: “Just look at him. Look at him. You know what I’m saying? He’s got it together. He came in a short time and has just helped us flip this around. Some people are just winners, and he’s a winner. He’s just a confident guy. When you play with confidence like that, you feel unstoppable.” Guard Brandon Fusco: “It’s a special feeling with him. He’s a special player. That’s the reason we did what we did to get him. You can definitely feel it. We’re all excited. There’s more to come from this.” Wide receiver Trent Taylor: “Having chemistry with your quarterback is a big deal. Just to understand timing and for him to understand where you're going to be and when and if you're going to break away from the defender or not. I think me and Jimmy have done good on that so far and he's done great with the rest of the receivers as well. Hopefully we can continue that." San Francisco is still priced in the betting markets like a team that has gone 5-24 SU in their last 29 games, especially when they’re matched up with a ‘Flavor of the Week’ like the Jaguars. But the Niners have won three straight since Garappolo took over behind center, rallying from behind in the fourth quarter TWICE last week to beat a winning team trying to clinch a playoff spot. And the Jags are as ‘fat and happy’ as it gets at this time of the year after clinching their first playoff appearance since 2007. Blake Bortles is not the better QB in this game the way he was last week against the Texans…. Take the 49ers. |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#110) I believe the Rams are better than the Titans, and deserve to be road favorites. But this line has gone through the roof and from all indications, Tennessee is coming to play on Sunday. All the value here – and there is legitimate value at the current pointspread – lies with the home underdog. I’m not going to write a bunch of negative things about LA here – this is a solid football team that has been winning games and covering pointspreads on the highway all season. That’s certainly factored into this pointspread! But now we’re talking about a very young West Coast team flying East for an early start game right before Christmas, coming off arguably their biggest win of the decade at Seattle last week. The final score against the Seahawks is a big reason why this pointspread is where it is – last week’s lookahead line was LA -3. And frankly, that result was as much about the Seattle no-show as anything LA did right. All 40 of LA’s offensive points came from drives that started in Seahawks territory. Jared Goff only generated 104 net passing yards on 22 dropbacks. Those are not ‘lay a TD on the road against a feisty foe’ type of stats, every bit as dicey as the spot for Sean McVay’s squad. Even after suffering tough losses to the 6-8 Cardinals and the 4-10 49ers over the last two weeks, the Titans can clinch a playoff spot with a win here, currently the #5 seed in the AFC. There’s certainly a level of hunger here. Pro Bowl DT Jurrell Casey: “To lose to two sorry teams like that back-to-back, I’m at a loss for words.” Marcus Mariota: “We left Nashville in first place in our division. It's not a very good feeling." Tennessee did find a spark last week with their no-huddle offense, rallying back from a 16-3 deficit at San Fran, then driving to kick what could have been the game winning FG with just over a minute left. This team hasn’t lost at home since opening day, notching five straight wins on this field. Too many points! Take the Titans. |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins +10.5 v. Chiefs | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#119) Here’s all you need to know about Miami’s mentality as they travel to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. Head coach Adam Gase: “We’re still in this season. This thing’s not quite over yet…. We’ve got two games to make some strides here. Win this one and go from there and see what happens.” The Dolphins have won two of their last three, including an impressive victory over the defending Super Bowl champs. But last week in Buffalo they fell behind early on a short week in a flat spot, and couldn’t rally to catch up. That being said, they did turn a 24-6 deficit into a 24-16 final score, showing resolve in a spot where they easily could have let go of the rope. They also showed that despite some ugly overall stats (the Dolphins are NOT good in the yards-per-play department), this team is more than capable of making plays on both sides of the ball. I have little hesitation betting against Andy Reid as a double digit favorite. Since the start of the 2015 campaign, Reid’s Chiefs have been favored by -6.5 or more eleven times. They have twice as many SU losses in that role (four) as they do pointspread covers (two). Coming off the big divisional win against the Chargers last week, with a trip to Denver on deck, this divisional sandwich is most assuredly NOT a ‘bet-on’ spo t for this double digit favorite. Take the Dolphins. |
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12-17-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Seahawks | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#323) The injuries haven’t stopped for the Seahawks defense. Already playing without future Hall of Famers Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor in the secondary and the pass rushing force that is Cliff Avril; Seattle lost two more key starters in their loss at Jacksonville last week when former pro bowlers Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright went down. This is a clear problem for the Seahawks. They gave up 424 total yards and 30 points last week, while the Jaguars gained 6.4 yards per play. To put those numbers in perspective, that’s a full yard per play better than Jacksonville has averaged for the season. Seattle was gashed in the running game to the tune of 5.0 yards per carry from the Jags RB’s, while Blake Bortles averaged 9.9 yards per throw, his second best mark of the season. Without healthy bodies in the secondary or among their LB corps, we can expect the Seahawks defensive struggles to continue. That’s bad news against a Rams offense that is really clicking, off back-2-back 30+ point efforts. And don’t underestimate how much the first meeting between these two squads was an anomaly. The Rams outgained the Seahawks by more than 100 yards. They shut down Russell Wilson, holding Seattle’s QB to just 4.4 yards per pass attempt while picking him off twice. But the Rams committed five turnovers and failed to produce a touchdown in four red zone tries. I’m not expecting a repeat in the rematch. LA’s special teams units are ranked #1 by the Football Outsiders metrics; the fifth straight year that special teams coach John Fassel has guided this unit to a top quartile ranking. Good special teams make LA’s overall stats look worse, deflating their pointspreads. When Johnny Hekker pins an opponent deep, that opponent now has more potential yards they can gain. When Pharoh Cooper returns a punt or a kickoff 40 yards, LA has fewer offensive yards to gain. When Greg Zuerlein hits 18 of 19 field goals from 40+ yards, the Rams are comfortable settling for three and then kicking off again. Elite special teams – the Rams have them, for sure – are value makers, because the mainstream stats don’t accurately reflect their importance. Here’s the bottom line. LA is the better of these two teams right now - -heck, they were the better of the two teams in the first meeting -- , and I’m confident they’re ready to notch a statement win on the road in Seattle against a Seahawks team living on reputation more than reality. No rush to bet this -- we could see +3's between now and kickoff. Take the Rams. |
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12-14-17 | Broncos -2.5 v. Colts | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#301) The quotes here tell most of the story. Indy is coming off a truly brutal game, losing in OT in a blizzard at Buffalo. Teams off an overtime game on Sunday playing on a short week for a Thursday Night game have been nothing short of awful: 8-22 SU, 6-24 ATS. And the Colts are most assuredly feeling the after effects of the snow bowl. Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano: “How do you feel after running in seven, eight, nine inches of snow, down after down?. It was a challenge getting on the field and off the field for us (coaches), let alone those players. It was like running on the beach in quick sand. Their legs were dead.” Colts QB Jacoby Brissett on Monday, his 25th birthday: “I feel a lot older than 25 today.” It’s surely worth noting that Brissett’s sack percentage is the highest in the NFL by a wide margin, bad news against the Broncos fierce pass rush. It’s also worth noting that the Colts have the single worst yards-per-play differential in the NFL, outgained by a whopping 1.3 yards on every snap, offense vs. defense. Indy hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game since November 5th at Houston. 13 year veteran Frank Gore is coming off a 36 carry performance in the snow – a likely non-factor tonight. And Denver’s defense was thoroughly re-energized for the stretch run following last week’s dominant showing, shutting out the Jets. Broncos LB Shane Ray said it best: “This is the kind of game we expected to play against everyone, not just New York. Everybody that we play, we should beat them like this. Period.” I concur. Take the Broncos. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 54 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Baltimore (#131) Ryan Shazier matters. The Steelers star linebacker is still in the hospital dealing with a spine injury following Pittsburgh’s brutally physical, ultra-intense, come-from-behind win on Monday Night Football. There’s been a notable loss in the locker room this week. Defensive coordinator Keith Butler: “(We’re) not worried about his football career, (we’re) worried about HIM.” Shazier’s absence is only one piece of the puzzle for the Steelers defense this week. Shazier’s backup, Tyler Matakevich, has been unable to practice all week, last seen wearing a shoulder harness. Cornerback Joe Haden is out again. Since his injury, the Steelers have allowed more pass plays of 30+ yards than any team in the NFL. Safety Mike Mitchell has missed two of the last three games as well, very questionable for Sunday. On a short week, off a physical game, these defensive injuries are meaningful! When the Steelers are forced to make waiver wire moves like picking up Sean Spence (a guy who couldn’t last with the lowly Colts, cut back in October) and put him in practice with the first stringers, it’s a problem. Let’s not forget that ancient James Harrison has only made three tackles all season, inactive for more than a month. These Steelers injuries are coming at just the wrong time – not to mention that they’ve got a pretty serious lookahead going for next week, with the #1 seed in the AFC on the line as they battle the Patriots. The Ravens season long offensive numbers are downright ugly. Joe Flacco is dead last in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt (counting sacks). RB Alex Collins has struggled in three straight road games, gaining only 2.8 yards per attempt on his 43 carries. But here in December, those numbers are flat out lying! Flacco might have had his best game of the season -certainly his best game since Week 5 at Oakland -- last week, finding Jeremy Maclin, finding Mike Wallace, finding Ben Watson, finding Danny Woodhead -- 10 different Ravens caught a pass. Meanwhile, Collins is up to 4.9 yards per carry and he’s punched in four TD’s over the past three weeks. The Ravens offense is pointed in the right direction; the Steelers defense in the wrong direction. Baltimore won’t have star cornerback Jimmy Smith following his season ending injury last week. But John Harbaugh isn’t short on cornerback depth, by any stretch of the imagination, with first rounder Marlon Humphrey poised to step in on the other side from Brandon Carr. John Harbaugh, talking about his rookie CB: “He is a self-starter. You don’t have to prod him really, to calm him down, because he is new to it.” Brandon Carr: “All the intangibles are there. He is smart, physical and can run. He is willing to take his lumps and he is going to be OK.” It’ll be at least somewhat easier for the Ravens secondary this week because Steelers second leading receiver JuJu Smith Shuster is out – Pittsburgh’s WR depth is rather limited these days. And it’s surely worth noting that Pittsburgh’s 26-9 win over Baltimore as -3.5 point favorites back in Week 4 was the first time either team had covered a pointspread of higher than -3 in this series since 2007, when Brian Billick was in his last season as the Ravens head coach. Laying points in this series has been an exercise in failure. Expect a tight, competitive contest that comes down to the final possession – exactly what we expect when the Steelers and Ravens collide. Big Ticket: Take the Ravens. |
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12-10-17 | Eagles v. Rams -1.5 | 43-35 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 55 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#128) Three factors are in play for me in this ballgame. First, I’m not buying the Eagles as top notch contenders right now. Make no mistake about it – Philly has been feasting on the weak. We’re talking about a squad that has played a grand total of TWO games all season against opponents that currently have a winning record. One of those contests was a Thursday Night (extra randomness on Thursday Night games, for sure) game against Carolina, a game where the Panthers were riddled with key injuries and Cam Newton threw three picks. The other was last week against Seattle. So all the impressive numbers that Philly has put up, all those blowout wins against weaklings – none of that matters in a game like this one. Philly has to step up in class, something they haven’t proven they can do. Second, I’m buying Sean McVay in big games a lot more than Doug Pederson. Pederson’s gameplan against the Seahawks last week was right out of clown college -- not trusting his QB to make plays against a quality defense. McVay, on the other hand, has shown plenty of trust in Jared Goff, and Goff has paid that trust back with wins over quality defensive foes like the Jaguars and Saints. With all the chaos in LA this week (Philly’s been there all week too, affected by the fires), coaching is going to matter a lot on Sunday, and I trust McVay over Pederson in a game where the SU winner equates to the ATS winner. Lastly, the Rams have one SIGNIFICANT edge that doesn’t show up in their statistical profile – in fact, it makes that profile worse! That edge is on special teams, where LA is ranked #1 by the Football Outsiders metrics; the fifth straight year that special teams coach John Fassel has guided this unit to a top quartile ranking. Good special teams make LA’s overall stats look worse. When Johnny Hekker pins an opponent deep, that opponent now has more potential yards they can gain. When Pharoh Cooper returns a punt or a kickoff 40 yards, LA has fewer offensive yards to gain. When Greg Zuerlein hits 18 of 19 field goals from 40+ yards, the Rams are comfortable settling for three and then kicking off again. Elite special teams – the Rams have them, for sure – are value makers, because the mainstream stats don’t accurately effect their importance. LA is the better of these two teams right now, and I’m confident they’re ready to take care of business against an overrated foe at home on Sunday. Take the Rams. |
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12-10-17 | 49ers +3 v. Texans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 31 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#119) I could put ten quotes in this spot, but I’m only going to use three. But make no mistake about it – from a mental standpoint, the 49ers have been completely transformed with Jimmy Garappolo behind center, and there were player quotes all over the place that made these same basic points after Garappolo’s first start for Kyle Shanahan. WR Marquise Goodwin: “Just look at him. Look at him. You know what I’m saying? He’s got it together. He came in a short time and has just helped us flip this around. Some people are just winners, and he’s a winner. He’s just a confident guy. When you play with confidence like that, you feel unstoppable.” Guard Brandon Fusco: “It’s a special feeling with him. He’s a special player. That’s the reason we did what we did to get him. You can definitely feel it. We’re all excited. There’s more to come from this.” Wide receiver Trent Taylor: “Having chemistry with your quarterback is a big deal. Just to understand timing and for him to understand where you're going to be and when and if you're going to break away from the defender or not. I think me and Jimmy have done good on that so far and he's done great with the rest of the receivers as well. Hopefully we can continue that." San Francisco is going to be priced in the betting markets like a team that has gone 2-24 SU in their last 26 games – a true bottom feeder. But the Niners had huge edges against Chicago last Sunday, edges not reflected in the final score because San Fran settled for field goals. But the Niners had a 23-8 first down edge and a 388-147 total yardage edge. Even their defense got re-energized because the offense wasn’t going three-and-out on every drive, on the field for a season low 36 snaps (leaving them very fresh here)! Defensive lineman DeForest Buckner: “I honestly felt like I could play another full game after that game.” Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh: “It is contagious. When the offense is moving the ball you could hear our guys on the sideline. It was the urgency at which they felt they needed to get the ball back for the offense because they were doing so well. It's a team game." Facing a Texans team that has lost five of their last six; looking the part of a passionless squad just playing out the string, look for San Fran to notch their first winning streak since Jim Harbaugh left town! Take the 49ers |
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12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -4.5 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 26 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#370) My clients and I cashed a winner betting AGAINST New Orleans last week, yet I have no hesitation betting ON the Saints this week. What gives? Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up: “We’ve got the New Orleans Saints as fat and happy as it gets, off a wild rally from 15 points down in the final three minutes of an overtime win against the Redskins, their eighth consecutive victory. The Rams in LA is the single toughest opponent that the Saints have played during this entire winning streak. With cluster injuries in their secondary (neither Marshon Lattimore or Ken Crawley have been able to practice all week), coming off a monstrous, satisfying comeback, the Saints are primed to see that winning streak end this week.” That was then, this is now. The Saints, now, have been humbled, off a frustrating loss. It’s surely worth noting that blindly betting Drew Brees off a loss since 2003 has been a major moneywinning proposition: 52-32 ATS (discounting pushes). And the injury riddled Saints defense is getting much healthier. Safety Kenny Vaccaro and LB AJ Klein both returned to the lineup last week. CB Ken Crawley is expected back in the lineup this week and he could be re-joined by rookie standout CB Marshon Lattimore, who missed last weeks’ game. The Saints won the first meeting between these two teams 34-13 because the Panthers offense didn’t work. Guess what – despite the 35 points they hung on the Jets last week, the Panthers offense still doesn’t work! Carolina scored on special teams and on defense last week; something I wouldn’t count on happening two weeks in a row. Without the traded Kelvin Benjamin or the injured Curtis Samuel and Greg Olson, Cam Newton completed only 11 of his 28 pass attempts while taking three sacks. They finished the game averaging less than 5.0 yards per play. Jonathan Stewart gained only 26 yards on his 15 carries. Devin Funchess was the only WR to catch a pass. This is not an offense that is clicking on all cylinders right now, bad news against an angry, focused Saints team primed to win this one by margin. Carolina’s defense isn’t necessarily as good as advertised either! The Panthers have faced San Fran, Buffalo, Chicago, Tampa (with Ryan Fitzpatrick), Miami and the Jets; all bottom quartile offenses that make the Panthers defensive numbers look at least a notch or two better than they probably are. Take the Saints. |
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12-03-17 | Browns +14 v. Chargers | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#371) The public bets against Cleveland every week and wins. The wiseguys bet ON Cleveland every week and lose. This has been going on for the better part of the last two seasons. The Browns are 2-9 ATS this year – dead last in the NFL; even worse than the Broncos, Bucs, Giants or Cardinals. They finished dead last in the NFL last year, covering only three pointspreads in 16 games. Clearly, there is going to be ‘value’ on the Browns after a dismal ATS stretch like this one, but only if they’re not quite as bad as the betting markets would indicate. I genuinely think that’s the case here, especially with star WR Josh Gordon returning to the lineup this week after an extended NFL mandated suspension. Hue Jackson is expected to stick Gordon right into the starting lineup on the other side from Corey Coleman, giving the Browns a pair of big play weapons on the outside. Cleveland has run the ball effectively all year, to the tune of 4.4 yards per carry. The Chargers, despite having Melvin Gordon on the roster, are more than a half yard per carry worse. LA doesn’t stop the run particularly well either, dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Browns run defense is more than a yard and a half better PER CARRY than the Chargers. I’ve NEVER seen that before from a two touchdown underdog in my 19 previous football seasons here in Las Vegas. I understand that Cleveland has had all sorts of ‘never before’s’ and ‘how is this possible’ non-covers over the past two seasons – their betting bandwagon grows smaller and smaller every week. It’s been all about turnovers for the Browns, both this year and last. They’re -17 in turnovers already this season, dead last in the NFL, and they’ve got a young, inexperienced QB in Deshone Kizer who makes more than his fair share of mistakes. If the Browns are -3 in turnovers again this week, they’re not likely to cover. But the Browns didn’t commit a turnover last week. They’re facing the only team they’ve actually beaten in SU fashion over the last two years; knocking off LA last December. And the Chargers are NOT built for covering big pointspreads. This is the first time all year that LA is higher than -7. In fact, it’s the first time since 2014 that they’ve laid more than a TD; not a role that suits them. At -14 over the past three seasons, the Chargers would be 4-39 ATS. At +14 this year, the Browns would have only 3 ATS losses in their first eleven games, instead of the 2-9 ATS mark they current have. This is anything BUT a ‘step-up’ game for the Chargers, coming off their Thanksgiving blowout at Dallas. Now that so many bettors have given up on Cleveland completely, this is the week to step in and expect them to cash for us, with room to spare. Take the Browns. |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 97 h 47 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#268) This is truly the mother of all spot plays in the NFL this year. We’ve got the LA Rams, humbled and hungry; returning home with something to prove off an ugly loss at Minnesota, outscored 24-0 after their opening touchdown drive. We’ve got the New Orleans Saints as fat and happy as it gets, off a wild rally from 15 points down in the final three minutes of an overtime win against the Redskins, their eighth consecutive victory. Yet the pointspread here is less than a field goal – the Saints have developed a fairly significant betting bandwagon over the course of their extended run. LA isn’t going to hang their heads in shame off last week’s loss, as these quotes clearly tell us. QB Jared Goff: “We’ve responded to every bit of adversity we’ve faced so far, and I expect no different.” Head coach Sean McVay: “We didn't do enough things to win the football game, and it starts with me. We talk about it every single week, how you've got to be ready to go because it is a very humbling league. We definitely got humbled today by a very good team." DT Aaron Donald: “Their offensive line couldn’t block us one-on-one. Case (Keenum) just did a good job of moving around in the pocket.” McVay is 10% correct about the Rams ability to bounce back from adversity. Following a Week 2 loss to the Redskins, LA bounced back with consecutive victories; scoring 76 points in the process. Following a ‘crushing’ turnover filled home loss to the Seahawks in Week 5, the Rams won their next two games before the bye by a 60-17 combined score, including an impressive double digit road win at Jacksonville. I trust LA to bounce back strong because they’ve already shown us they can. That Aaron Donald quote about the Rams pass rush and Case Keenum’s mobility matters here as well. Drew Brees doesn’t have that same mobility, and he’s been feasting on the weak, beating the likes of the Dolphins, the Lions (in a Detroit turnover debacle), the Packers (with Brett Hundley), the Bears, the Bucs, the Bills and a Redskins team with injuries all over their defense in their last seven victories. The Rams in LA is the single toughest opponent that the Saints have played during this entire winning streak. With cluster injuries in their secondary (neither Marshon Lattimore or Ken Crawley have been able to practice all week), coming off a monstrous, satisfying comeback, the Saints are primed to see that winning streak end this week. Take the Rams. |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show | |
Take the LA Chargers (#109) Whatever the Dallas Cowboys were a month ago, they aren’t that same team any more. Sure, the suspension of Zeke Elliott matters. But the injuries to pro bowl left tackle Tyron Smith and star linebacker Sean Lee are far more impactful when it comes to the Cowboys current form. In the two games since Smith and Lee got hurt, the Cowboys lost 27-7 and 37-9. Dak Prescott’s passer rating in those two games was a 55.4 – Deshone Kizer territory – and the Cowboys offense managed to put only a single TD on the scoreboard in eight quarters of football. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense was gashed for 215 rushing yards at 6.5 ypc last week on the heels of 132 yards on the ground from the Falcons the week before. Even worse, the Cowboys allowed seven touchdowns in nine red zone tries over that two week span. Tyron Smith isn’t likely to suit up here and even if he does, I’m not expecting ‘pro bowl’ form. Sean Lee isn’t coming back from injury just yet, meaning that we can expect the Cowboys defensive struggles to continue. All of Dallas’s season long stats are lying right now – this team has lost their collective mojo and I don’t trust Jason Garrett to fix it on a short week. Right now, the Chargers are arguably the best team in the AFC West; playing far better than their 4-6 record would indicate. In fact, since their 0-4 start, LA is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS, the only SU losses coming in competitive games at New England and Jacksonville – no shame there. San Diego’s pass rush has been devastating; a top notch defensive ballclub. Philip Rivers continues to make plays downfield on a weekly basis while explosive RB Melvin Gordon has averaged better than five yards per carry over the last three weeks. The betting markets have adjusted the Cowboys down and the Chargers up off last week’s showings. Frankly, they haven’t adjusted enough in a game where the SU win for LA equates to a pointspread cover. Take the Chargers. |
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11-19-17 | Bucs v. Dolphins | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#455) I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. When we get a chance to bet against the Dolphins in a pick em priced game, we should have no hesitation making that bet. Miami has shown plenty of ‘quit’ in recent weeks, a team with the worst yards per play differential in the NFL – they gain 4.5 but allow 5.7, even worse numbers than the dismal Giants, Browns or 49ers. Those numbers aren’t fraudulent. The Dolphins have stolen more than their fair share of wins they didn’t deserve this season (missed field goal by the Chargers, Matt Cassel at QB vs. the Titans, very lucky comeback win vs. the Falcons, Matt Moore getting hot late vs. the Jets). This is a squad that could easily be sitting at 1-8 or 0-9 and being priced in the same range New York, Cleveland and San Fran are priced in the markets at this stage of the campaign. The Bucs defense showed pride last week in a dominating showing against the Jets, giving a disappointing squad a real spark of life heading into their matchup with the ‘lots of quit’ Dolphins. From a talent standpoint, there’s no comparison between these two teams – Tampa has the playmakers on both sides of the ball. And frankly, we should expect Jay Cutler mistakes, and when those mistakes happen, I’m not expecting the home team to respond well…. Take the Bucs. |
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11-19-17 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 15 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#461) From all indications, we can stick a fork in the Houston Texans right about now, because they are done. Think about what this squad has been through since the start of training camp. A hurricane severely disrupted their preseason. Their head coach cost them potential upsets at New England and Seattle with inane late game decision making. Their owner infuriated his players with his remarks at a well-publicized meeting in an atmosphere of racial tension. Their two best defensive players got knocked out for the year in a national TV home beatdown by KC. Their pro bowl offensive tackle held out, came back for a couple of weeks and then was traded at the deadline. And then, the final straw, was when their sparkplug, QB Deshaun Watson, in the midst of setting all time rookie records, went down in practice. Talk about going through the ringer! Tom Savage is god-awful. The Texans immediate, immense improvement once Watson took over as the starting QB was no accident. In the three games that Savage has started this year, the Texans scored a grand total of three offensive touchdowns, exactly one per game. They are 0-3 in those games, losing twice as a favorite (-6 and -5.5). All three of those losses came by double digits against the pointspread. Savage has completed only 47% of his passes, not throwing at an NFL level. There’s a reason that the Texans have brought in a half dozen QB’s since drafting Savage – they know he shouldn’t be out there. Deep threat Will Fuller won’t play this week, an underrated key to Houston’s gameplan. The Texans aren’t primed to score many points here, and this defense isn’t stopping anyone; picked apart consistently since Watt and Mercilus went down. Arizona continues to fight the good fight, and Blaine Gabbert is an undervalued commodity in this equation. The Cardinals, too, have suffered the injury bug in a big way this season. Yes, they’ve suffered a couple of ugly, embarrassing losses at Philly and against the Rams in London – two elite teams, mind you. But we’ve seen plenty of fight in Bruce Arians squad – two wins and a hard fought loss against the Seahawks last week. They’ve had extra prep time here off the Thursday game, and with 40 career starts under his belt and the ability to scramble out of the pocket, Blaine Gabbert is a QB I want my money on this week. Arians, talking about Gabbert at the end of the preseason: “I've been very pleased. Short-term, I'd be very comfortable if he had to play for us. Long-term, if he continues at this rate, he could be a starter.” Arians this past week, when asked why Gabbert has such a bad reputation as an NFL QB : “He was on really shitty teams.” Which he was; playing behind arguably the worst offensive lines in the NFL in both San Francisco and Jacksonville. Arizona’s offensive line isn’t great, but it’s better than anything Gabbert has played behind in his career! This game ain’t no pick ‘em – Arizona is the superior, harder playing squad, primed to win on Sunday. Big Ticket: Take the Cardinals. |
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11-12-17 | Browns +11 v. Lions | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#265) Three basic points here. First, the Lions aren’t good enough to be laying double digits to anybody. Second, the Lions are in a truly miserable spot for any double digit favorite. And third, if there’s one week to be betting ON the Browns, this is the week! Let’s start from the top. Since their 2-0 start, the Lions have only covered two pointspreads – both on the road in divisional matchups against backup quarterbacks. They haven’t been favored by even a full field goal in any game this season. Detroit has won 13 games over the past two seasons. None of those 13 victories has come by more than two touchdowns. The Lions are most assuredly not a blowout team in the Jim Caldwell/Matthew Stafford era. Let’s not forget that Detroit’s -0.7 yards per play differential ranks #30 in the NFL, tied with winless San Fran. They’ve only reached 100 rushing yards once all season. Matthew Stafford has been sacked 26 times already. The Lions red zone offense ranks #27 in touchdown percentage, consistently settling for field goals. That matters A LOT in a pointspread range like this one. Detroit brought their ‘A’ game on Monday Night, winning for only the second time in their last 26 tries at Lambeau Field, a huge, emotionally satisfying victory. Up next? A road trip to face another division rival at Soldier Field in Chicago, followed by another divisional showdown against Minnesota. This is the very definition of a flat spot for a team with no track record of covering pointspreads in this role. That’s most assuredly not the case for the Cleveland Browns, a winless team coming off their bye week – a long term, positive expectation wagering situation. The Browns problems have been two-fold. First, their own red zone execution has been abysmal: dead last on defense, #28 on offense. Secondly, turnovers have killed this squad; an NFL high 21 giveaways compared to a bottom quartile nine takeaways. A bye week can only help in that regard, and the Browns are coming out of the bye as healthy as they’ve been all year. Look for Cleveland’s strong run defense to make the Lions offense one-dimensional . Look for the Lions to come out flat. Expect the back door to be wide open if Detroit does take a two score lead. And expect the hapless Cleveland Browns to cash our winning bet – let’s not forget that four of their eight losses have come by exactly three points……Take the Browns. |
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11-12-17 | Bengals v. Titans -4.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#262) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner betting against the Bengals last week in their 23-7 loss to Jacksonville. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up. Numbers have been lightly edited to reflect current realities: “There’s a lot wrong in Cincinnati these days; in many respects ‘too wrong to fix.’ Cinci’s offense hasn’t worked all year; unable to move the football last week as double digit home favorites against a Colts defense minus key starters from every unit. They’ve already switched coordinators; that didn’t make a huge difference. The head coaching change is coming after the season – you can feel it already. Their offensive line is bottom tier, and that’s not going to change; held under 100 rushing yards in each of their last five games. Andy Dalton has been sacked on more than 9% of his dropbacks, #30 in the NFL. And Cinci’s turnover problems aren’t going away: -9 for the season – their defense has only recovered one fumble all year, not making the ‘effort’ plays.” The Bengals didn’t notch a single sack for the second time in their last three games against the Jags. They lost the ‘penalty yardage’ battle for the sixth straight week. They lost by double digits, SU and ATS, despite winning the turnover battle. And four the fourth time in eight games, Cinci was held to two TD’s or less; an offense that isn’t primed to suddenly get untracked here, even with AJ Green expected back on the field. Plain and simple – I have no hesitation betting against the Bungles these days, especially in games where they’ll need to win (or come pretty darn close) to cover the spread. Make no mistake about it – this Titans team has underachieved so far, in large part due to their red zone failures on offense, ranked near the bottom of the NFL in red zone TD percentage. The return of #1 draft choice WR Corey Davis from an injury absence can only help in that regard, especially since it should open things up for beefy backs Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry between the tackles. Titans WR Rishard Matthews, talking about how having Davis in the lineup will affect their offense: “A ton. That’s his job, is to come in here and be a playmaker. That’s what we all expect him to be. That’s what I expect him to come here and do right away. We got a little piece of it in the beginning of the year. He’s back and ready to go, so expecting big things.” Davis’s own quote: “This is the turnaround right here. I feel it.” There’s no betting bandwagon for Tennessee these days – their only pointspread cover since September came on a late garbage time TD with less than a minute to play against the Colts. This team is primed for a breakout game, Cinci is an ideal opponent to face right now, and the pointspread is downright cheap given the difference in both ability and mentality between these two squads right now. Take the Titans. |
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11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Buffalo (#264) This is the mother of all bad spots for the road favorite Saints, and the mother of all good spots for the home underdog Bills. The matchups work in Buffalo’s favor here, on both sides of the football. And yet public perception is down on Buffalo, while market support for New Orleans is sky high right now – my power rating number has the Bills as chalk here. When the matchups, situation and value all point in the same direction, we’re talking about a play worthy of Big Ticket status. Yes, the Saints have won six in a row since their 0-2 start. But this is not a team that is going 14-2, destined to never lose another game in the regular season. The quotes coming out of the New Orleans locker room have been pretty clear. The Saints know full well that they are not an elite ballclub. And they’re also a notch or two ‘fat and happy’ following a blowout home victory over their divisional rivals. Buffalo in November – even with fair conditions and gametime temperatures expected to be above 40 degrees – is not the Saints optimal venue; a team built for domes and turf. And the Saints are anything but battle tested during this winning streak where just about everything has broken right for them. This is NOT a ‘max intensity’ spot for the road team. The Saints six game winning streak has been mostly ‘right place, right time’. They faced Carolina before the Panthers fixed their broken offense. They got Jay Cutler in London. They got Detroit on a day where the Saints scored three non-offensive touchdowns. They got Brett Hundley in his NFL starting debut and Mitch Trubisky in his third career start. Last week, it was an ailing Jameis Winston before he gave way to tired retread Ryan Fitzpatrick. That, folks, is anything BUT a tough slate. Tyrod Taylor will be the best QB this team has seen in more than a month! The Saints defense has been great against the pass facing mostly bottom tier quarterbacks. But despite all of those weak QB’s and weak passing games that they’ve faced, New Orleans is still struggling to stop the run. That’s bad news against LeSean McCoy and the Bills power rushing game. McCoy wasn’t fresh last Thursday against the Jets, but the extra rest has him primed for a big bounceback this week. The Bills should get leading receiver TE Charles Clay back on the field here. And the Saints braintrust won’t have any film to watch trying to figure out how the Bills are going to use recently acquired Kelvin Benjamin at WR this week, giving Taylor another downfield weapon. The Bills pass defense has better overall numbers than New Orleans, with a 76.6 QB rating allowed. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) at home this year, gaining a legitimate edge when playing in Orchard Park. Coming off their debacle last Thursday Night, facing road trips to KC and LA, followed by the Patriots over the next three weeks, this IS a max intensity spot for the home underdog. Take the +3, but be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline in a game that the Bills are primed to win in outright fashion. Big Ticket: Take the Bills. |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -6 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Push | 0 | 34 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Seattle (#111) As we saw so clearly again on Monday Night, teams playing with a backup QB behind center tend to struggle against the better defenses that they face. We can expect that once again on Thursday as Drew Stanton and the Cardinals face off against the still elite Seahawks defense on a short week. Drew Stanton got ample playing time behind center for the Cardinals when they lost at home 36-6 in their 2015 season finale against Seattle. Stanton was the starter when the Cards lost 19-3 to the Seahawks in 2014. And those are Drew Stanton’s two previous career outings against Seattle – both downright ugly defeats in which Arizona’s offense didn’t work one iota. So what changes on this short week? Not much for Arizona, from an offensive standpoint. Bruce Arians got a CAREER high 37 carries from Adrian Peterson on Sunday; bad news for an aging back on a short week. In a similar spot last Thursday – off a particularly heavy workload -- LeSean McCoy gained only 25 yards on 12 carries in an ugly loss for the Bills. Bruce Arians, talking about his primary offensive weapon right now: “We’ll see how he feels …. I wish we had a full week. Obviously, we won’t be able to feed him that many times on Thursday night.” Here’s what Stanton had to say about the Cardinals run-heavy gameplan at San Francisco last Sunday: “The game plan was fantastic. I loved it. I loved every single part of it. Each day we got the install, I was getting more and more excited what was going on.” Too bad for Stanton that the Cardinals won’t be able to utilize that same gameplan this week! And there’s truly no comparison between the Seahawks stout defense and the injury riddled Niners defense that AP shredded last week. This is a Seahawks spot, all the way! We’ve seen Seattle dominate on this field repeatedly – three double digit wins and a tie on their last four trips to Arizona. Seattle outgained Washington nearly 2:1 on Sunday, but they missed three field goals and two 2 point conversion tries and committed a franchise record 16 penalties – fixable problems. Coming off that loss, now trailing in the NFC West race, I expect a sense of urgency from the road favorite here. Against the hapless Cardinals, urgency matters in a game the road favorite should win by a TD or more. Take the Seahawks. |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 105 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket NFL Game of the YEAR: Take Green Bay (#474) Remember that Green Bay Packers team that we saw before the bye week losing badly at home to New Orleans? Well, you should probably forget that game – it’s a long way in the rear view mirror now, and the Packers team that we saw before the bye is not the one we’re likely to see coming out of the break. But the betting markets aren’t seeing it that way, installing the Lions as road favorites. That, folks, is a downright silly overreaction based pointspread, making the Packers as home dogs on Monday Night the single best bet I’ve seen in the NFL all season, truly worthy of GOY status. Here are my four basic premises. First, the Packers offense, other than Aaron Rodgers, is as healthy as they’ve been all year. Second, Brett Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, but he’s more than capable of stepping up here. Third, the Lions aren’t very good and they never win in Green Bay. And fourth, from a situational standpoint, this is a CRUCIAL game for Green Bay in the division; a team that is still expected to get Aaron Rodgers back before the playoffs. Coming off their bye, we can expect the Packers ‘A’ game on Monday Night. The Packers are expected to have all five starting offensive linemen this week. They had one of the five healthy against New Orleans fierce pass rush before the bye. Tackle David Bakhtiari: “Being healthy is key. The bye week was definitely nice — especially with how banged up we were. Us offensive linemen, we were pretty much limping into this bye week. I think that’s big, too.” Head coach Mike McCarthy: “It’ll be great to have those five guys. We’ve talked about this time and time again that the best offensive lines are the ones that line up and practice and play together.” TE Martellus Bennett will be back on the field as well, key for a young QB like Hundley. Hundley was a projected first rounder coming out of UCLA until a disappointing senior season. Hundley showed well in the preseason, making plays with his feet as well as his arm. Hundley wasn’t good against the Vikings or the Saints in his first two outings, but Green Bay’s offensive line was a big part of that, as were the quality of the two defenses that he faced. Hundley stayed in Green Bay during the bye and got extra one-on-one work in with the coaching staff. Detroit isn’t anywhere near the Vikings or Saints when it comes to their pass rush or their ability to control the line of scrimmage on the defensive side of the football. Let me make this very clear – Brett Hundley is a ‘bet-on’ QB this week, coming out of the bye! The Lions are 1-25 SU at Lambeau Field since 1992, a house of horrors for Detroit year after year after year. This is certainly not a venue that bodes well for the Lions as road chalk. Detroit comes in off yet another frustrating defeat; their third straight loss, gaining more than 480 yards of offense against the Steelers without getting the ball into the end zone even once. Since their 2-0 start, the Lions have only covered one pointspread, and they’ve yet to cover ANY pointspreads this year as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Packers are 9-2 SU after the bye under Mike McCarthy. Both SU losses came on the road against teams that were undefeated at the time. Each of their last seven wins out of the bye week have been relatively comfortable, by a TD or more – they’re coming back rested and focused, consistently. Green Bay hasn’t quit on their coach or their season; a team that is still very much alive in the playoff race despite Aaron Rodgers injuries and their current two game skid. Expect a strong showing on Monday Night in a game where the betting markets appear to be reading the wrong tea leaves. Extraordinary value here! Big Ticket GOY: Take the Packers. |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 78 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#470) The Chiefs defense is completely broken, but the betting markets haven’t realized it yet. Their season long offensive stats are lying, and the betting markets haven’t noticed that either. They’re on a short week off a very satisfying Monday Night win over a divisional rival at home. And they’re facing an undervalued foe. Put it all together and it’s not hard to make a strong case for fading the overrated Chiefs. Two weeks ago, we saw a terrible Raiders offense that hasn’t worked against anybody since Week 2 pick apart the KC pass defense to the tune of 417 yards and 31 points. Then last week, we saw a Broncos team with no passing game whatsoever and an injury riddled, struggling offensive line run the ball all night against the Chiefs; to the tune of 5.7 yards per carry, 177 yards on the ground. This is not a good defense; unable to stop the run OR the pass right now. The season long stats clearly show the Chiefs with the most explosive offense in the NFL – like the Falcons had last year; #1 in yards per play. Those numbers are lying when it comes to projecting forward. RB Kareem Hunt was insane for the first five weeks, notching a 50+ yard rush in every single game! Now that opposing defenses are gameplanning for him, Hunt has gained 21, 87 and 46 yards in his last three contests, with only one run longer than 15 yards. But the impact of that bevy of Hunt early season big plays is still having a HUGE impact on the stat sheet. Both the pointspread and the sharp money follows that stat sheet pretty closely, giving savvy bettors value AGAINST KC, because their current offense is currently more like a middle of the pack unit: 5.6 yards per play over the past three weeks. I understand that Zeke Elliott is an impact running back. I also understand that the Cowboys offensive line is healthy now, and they’ve dominated the last two games. Dak Prescott is on fire, leading the team to 28+ points in each of their last five ballgames and making good decisions with the football week after week – only 2 INT’s during that span. And the trio of Alfred Morris, Rod Smith and Darren McFadden are more than capable of filling the void left by Elliott’s suspension. Should Elliott get reinstated by the courts – which is quite possible as I write this up on Thursday – you’ll be getting the best of the number if you bet it early – NOW! Take the Cowboys |
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11-05-17 | Bengals v. Jaguars -5.5 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 74 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Jacksonville (#458) Yes, the Bengals ‘saved’ their season thanks to a Carlos Dunlap pick six in the fourth quarter against the Colts last week. And, yes, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the smallest home field edge for any team in the NFL in the modern era. But those two bits of information are, quite literally, the only reasonable cases to be made for the road underdog. And, as you’ll see, there are ample reasons to think that the Jags are primed to beat Cinci by a TD or more on Sunday. There’s a lot wrong in Cincinnati these days; in many respects ‘too wrong to fix.’ Cinci’s offense hasn’t worked all year; unable to move the football last week as double digit home favorites against a Colts defense minus key starters from every unit. They’ve already switched coordinators; that didn’t make a huge difference. The head coaching change is coming after the season – you can feel it already. Their offensive line is bottom tier, and that’s not going to change; held under 100 rushing yards in each of their last four games. Andy Dalton has been sacked on more than 9% of his dropbacks, #30 in the NFL. And Cinci’s turnover problems aren’t going away: -10 for the season – their defense hasn’t recovered a fumble all year, not making the ‘effort’ plays. The Jags defense is as dominant as any stop unit in football; a playoff caliber unit. They’ve been blowing up the line of scrimmage all year, sacking QB’s and forcing turnovers in bunches. That’s how the Jags have held four of their first eight opponents to nine points or less; winning those contests by a combined score of 130-23 - all blowouts. I expect the Bengals turnover issues to continue this week. Blake Bortles is not a QB most bettors are comfortable laying points with; understandably so given his repeated struggles in this particular ATS role. But this one spot – coming out of their bye week, playing at home where they’ve yet to win all year, looking for back-2-back wins for the first time all year – is a max intensity spot for the home team. From local reports, the Jags certainly have the feel of a motivated, focused, bet-on team in practice this week; something I’m not sensing from the road underdog with the lame duck head coach. Lay it with Bortles, but expect Leonard Fournette to be the difference maker on offense! Take the Jaguars. |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys -1.5 v. Redskins | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#269) To call the Redskins an injury riddled mess right now would not be an overstatement. How bad is the injury situation in Washington on a short week off their home loss to Philly on Monday Night Football? Bad enough that Jay Gruden CANCELLED PRACTICE on Wednesday, opting for a walk-through instead. There aren’t many NFL coaches willing to cancel a Wednesday practice for any reason, but with 17 contributors unable to suit up, it was the only decision that Gruden could make. The Redskins biggest injury issues are on the offensive line. The likes of Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, Spencer Long, Morgan Moses and Ty Nsekhe were unable to suit up for practice on Thursday either. Gruden’s quote doesn’t inspire much confidence for this bettor: ““It has its challenges, that’s for sure. You walk out of the tunnel with Long, Nsekhe, Scherff, Williams and Moses and those guys aren’t practicing, it’s a little bit different when you go in the huddle. Heading into the game against the Redskins, Washington’s options on the offensive line are very limited. Their only healthy tackles for Thursday’s practice session were TJ Clemmings, a guy they picked up off the waiver wire after preseason, and Andreas Knappe, who was signed to the practice squad just last week. They also have undrafted rookie Tyler Catalina and Tony Bergstrom, signed on Wednesday after getting released by the Ravens on the roster, a truly uninspiring quartet. The Redskins defense is just as injury riddled as their offense. Five defensive backs are hurt, including both starting cornerbacks. Standout rookie pass rusher Jonathan Allen just went on IR, as did defensive leader LB Mason Foster. The Redskins just allowed 34 points in the final three quarters against Philly on Monday Night and there’s no reason to think it’ll be any easier for that stop unit this week, because the elite Cowboys offensive line is getting healthier! The Cowboys offensive line had their best game of the season coming out of their bye at San Francisco last week, buoyed by pro bowler Tyron Smith, as healthy as he’s been all season. No surprise, then, that Zeke Elliott enjoyed a huge afternoon, while Dak Prescott didn’t take a sack. If the weather is rainy, as expected, the Cowboys dominance in the trenches should only grow. And, of course, the Cowboys are primed to exploit the Redskins weaknesses up front with DeMarcus Lawrence and David Irving combining for 12.5 sacks already. Let’s not forget the fact that the Cowboys are true road warriors: 8-2 SU in their last ten meaningful road games. Dallas is the better of these two teams right now, and I expect them to show it! Take the Cowboys |
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10-29-17 | Bears v. Saints -9 | 12-20 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 3 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#254) Since their 0-2 SU and ATS start to the campaign, the Saints have come on like a freight train, notching four consecutive wins and covers. Last week’s win at Green Bay was particularly impressive, because they got the two score victory despite an awful, turnover plagued start on the road on grass in rainy conditions – not ideal Saints weather. The key to their resurgence has been a defense making plays all over the field; the antithesis of what we’ve seen from the Saints defensively in any recent season. A Saints secondary that has flat out lacked talent in recent seasons has been buoyed by first round draft choice CB Marshon Lattimore, who is playing lockdown man coverage on a weekly basis. Safety Kenny Vaccaro, another former first rounder, has been nothing short of stellar since returning to health. The pass rush has been there too, led by Cameron Jordan and Alex Okafor. And the results clearly show the ‘night and day’ improvement. Over the past five weeks, the Saints have held opposing QB’s to a 53.6 QB rating, lowest in the NFL. They rank among the top four defenses in yards allowed, points allowed and forced turnover during that span. New Orleans still has full season stats that reflect their ugly first two games, but those games are a long, long way in the rear view mirror now. That’s bad news for a Bears offense that gained all of five first downs last week, managing just a single field goal for their 60 minutes of playing time. Mitch Trubisky has completed a grand total of 24 passes for 348 yards in his first three games as an NFL starter, but the Bears have been in every game because they haven’t been facing a litany of explosive offenses, to put it mildly. That changes this week in New Orleans, where the Saints have averaged scoring 36 points per game; not an offense that Chicago can expect to shut down. If the Bears are going to hang around in this contest, they’re going to have to put up points in bunches. And that’s just not something Chicago is capable of doing these days. Note the two games – both road contests, like this one – where the Bears fell behind early and were forced to rely on a passing game that lacks downfield receivers. They lost by 3 TD’s each time, at Tampa and at Green Bay; completely unable to rally back from a deficit. That doesn’t change this week in a blowout spot for the home team. Take the Saints. |
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10-29-17 | Panthers +2 v. Bucs | Top | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Carolina (#257) This is a HUGE game for both squads. Tampa is 2-4, losers of three straight and on the verge of a complete collapse. Carolina is sitting at 4-3, but they’re coming off ugly back-2-back losses; sitting on the brink themselves. But only one of these two teams is primed to step up with a winning effort this week – the road underdog. Tampa’s problems aren’t getting fixed anytime soon. There’s clear dissention in the locker room, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Plain and simple – this injury riddled unit isn’t buying what defensive coordinator Mike Smith is selling, as clearly evidenced by these quotes: Offseason free agent acquisition TJ Ward, unhappy with the defensive rotations following their loss to Buffalo last week: “I did not come here to rotate. I did not come here to be a part-time player. I came here to make this defense better." Pro bowl defensive linemen Gerald McCoy, talking about the scheme: “I just play what they call. I don't have a say so in what we run, I just kind of go with it. I'm a team guy, so I do what they ask me to do. Do I feel like I could've been more effective in a different way? Yes. But I'm a team guy. It's not about Gerald. Whatever coach calls is what I'm going to run.” Smith’s issues calling plays for the defense are likely to continue to be a problem this week. For the season, the Bucs have only four interceptions, while allowing a whopping 295 yards per game through the air. They rank dead last in the NFL in both sacks and sack percentage. And they’re dealing with cluster injuries at cornerback. One starter, Robert McClain, is in concussion protocol, unlikely to suit up. The other starter, Brett Grimes, missed last week with a shoulder injury and hasn’t practiced this week either. McClain has played 215 snaps over the last four games. The only two experienced backups on the roster have combined for five snaps during that same span. The season ending injury to DE Noah Spence isn’t likely to help their struggling pass rush. No pass rush and an injury riddled secondary is a very hard thing for any NFL team to overcome, let alone a team that is clearly beset with chemistry issues between the coaching staff and the players. In short, the Bucs are a clear ‘bet-against’ team moving forward, especially with QB Jameis Winston unable to practice all week with a bum shoulder. I do not expect this defense to get any better in the short term, a stop unit ranked among the bottom five in the NFL in key metrics like yards per play allowed and opposing QB rating allowed. Don’t be fooled by Cam Newton’s struggles interacting with the media. That does not make Cam Newton a ‘bet-against’ QB by any stretch of the imagination. He’s still at 64% completions for the season – best of his career – while averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt – second only to his Super Bowl season over the last five years. The problem has been turnovers, more than any other factor; a team that allowed a pair of 75+ yard defensive scores last week, now sitting at -9 for the season – only the Browns are worse. Facing a Bucs defense that doesn’t force turnovers is exactly what Cam Newton and this offense need. And, no, this locker room isn’t turning on itself like the one in Tampa seems to be, despite their level of frustration. WR Kelvin Benjamin: “I think everybody is frustrated. The whole offense was frustrated because the defense was giving us 3-and-outs and we didn’t put points up.” Offensive coordinator Mike Shula, trying to explain why they’ve struggled over the last two weeks after putting up 60 points in SU road wins at Detroit and New England in weeks 4 & 5. “We’re not as far off as we think. It feels like we are, and we all feel terrible.” The Panthers should have both LB Luke Kuechly and safety Kurt Coleman back in the lineup this week, two huge adds for a stop unit that gave up a grand total of five first downs and one field goal last Sunday. They’ve got a comparable offense, the MUCH better defense, the better locker room situation and the better chance at turning things around and salvaging their season. Wrong team favored here. Big Ticket: Take Carolina. |
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10-22-17 | Broncos +2 v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver (#473) My clients and I have already cashed one Big Ticket winner betting against the Chargers at the StubHub Center in LA. It was a sin of omission not to have more than one winning bet so far against a team with legitimately no home field advantage whatsoever. This week, they’re facing a superior opponent, fully motivated off an embarrassing loss last week; an opponent they’ve already been dominated by once this season. And LA is the favorite here, laying points! I’m not buying it! Philip Rivers did not look comfortable at the Stub Hub center in the preseason, complaining among other things about the locations of the play clocks and the sight lines for his receivers. The numbers show that very clearly through the first six weeks of the season, with a 3:3 TD-INT ratio in three games at home, compared to a 7:2 ratio in three games on the highway. No surprise, then, that the Chargers have yet to win a game or cover a pointspread in their new home. Yet the markets continue to factor in a home field edge for LA. Expect the Broncos to have as many fans (or more) at StubHub as the Chargers do; exactly what we saw in LA’s home losses to the Eagles, Chiefs and Dolphins. It’s surely worth noting that LA hasn’t put together a winning ATS record in the home favorite’s role since 2013. They’ve lost both previous tries as favorites this season SU and (of course) ATS. The Chargers were largely non-competitive for three quarters of the first meeting between these two squads. Trailing 24-7 in the fourth quarter, LA took advantage of a pair of Broncos turnovers in Denver territory as well as a missed Denver field goal to make the final score (24-21) look closer than the game actually was. Now the Chargers are returning home, fat and happy, off back-2-back tough road wins. Of course, the two wins came against the hapless Giants (0-5 at the time) and the hapless Raiders (major disappointment, injured QB and a four game losing streak). The markets, doing what they do, are convinced that LA is primed to make a run here, but I’m not buying that argument one iota. LA didn’t beat the Giants and Raiders as much as those two sorry teams beat themselves. And they’ll be facing a Broncos squad primed to make a statement off their dismal ‘no-show’ at home against the Giants last week. The Broncos defense was flat last week in a game where they had precious little film to prepare for what they were going to see against the Giants new look offense. I’m not expecting that to happen twice in a row, especially off a loss and facing a divisional foe. For the season, the Broncos have held foes to 3.0 yards per carry, the #1 ranked run defense in the NFL. The Chargers rank #31 in that category, opponents averaging a full 5.0 yards per carry differential. Denver has a big defensive edge against the pass too, ranked #6 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed compared to the Chargers #16 rank. Plain and simple: Denver is the better of these two teams, and I expect them to show it! Wrong team favored. Big Ticket: Take the Broncos. |
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10-22-17 | Cardinals v. Rams -3 | 0-33 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#468) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner with LA last week in their double digit win at Jacksonville. While the pointspread this week isn’t as user friendly – I can’t go back to the well with LA for another Big Ticket Report -- I have absolutely no hesitation supporting the Rams with a standard sized wager in London against the Cardinals. Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game. That defense played their best two games of the season over the past two weeks; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. “The Rams turned the ball over five times against Seattle two weeks ago, their first ‘turnover plague’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad, and they fixed it last week, even facing the top notch Jags stop unit. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 185 pass attempts for the season, while only taking nine sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football.” The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Cardinals offense; more than a half yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco, at Dallas and at Jacksonville. And LA took this trip last year, a fact that matters considering the trip to London is a brand new thing for the Cardinals. It’s worth noting that Arizona had to fly from the West Coast while the Rams flew out straight from Jacksonville. Arizona has played decently at home this year. Away from home, they’ve been a complete disaster, losing 35-23 at Detroit, barely escaping with a three point OT win as TD favorites at Indy, and blasted 34-7 at Philly. This isn’t a new issue. Since the start of the 2015 campaign, ‘Zona is a woeful 2-6 ATS as an underdog away from home. Both covers came in late December against teams playing for nothing. And there’s no comparison between the Rams solid stop unit and the injury riddled Bucs unit that Carson Palmer and Adrian Peterson shredded last week. Chalk worth laying! Take the Rams. |
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10-22-17 | Ravens v. Vikings -5.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 10 m | Show | |
Take the Minnesota Vikings (#458) Baltimore was the most injury riddled team in the NFL in training camp. Then they went 2-0 to open the campaign against Cinci and Cleveland (when the Bengals were awful, off to an 0-3 start), thanks to an opportunistic (lucky?) defense that created ten turnovers in two games. But the injury bug continued to strike. Without pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda, missing four of their five projected offensive line starters from the start of training camp, the Ravens got beaten by the Jags and Steelers – two limited offensive teams so far this year – by a combined margin of 70-16. After a win against the struggling Raiders, it was more of the same for the Baltimore offense last week; held to ten points and less than 300 total yards in their OT loss at home to the Bears last week. Don’t be fooled for a moment about the final score of that game. The Ravens got a kick return TD and a punt return TD – otherwise the Bears would have blown them out. And I’m not anticipating two more special teams TD’s this week! The Ravens offense is clearly broken. From a yards per play standpoint, they rank #30 out of 32 NFL teams. Joe Flacco’s QB rating is 66.1 right now. His previous CAREER low was 80.3 as a rookie in 2008. They aren’t likely to have TE Maxx Williams (ankle) or deep threat WR Breshad Perriman (concussion) available, both downgraded to doubtful. TE Ben Watson has a bum knee, WR Mike Wallace has a bad back and WR Jeremy Maclin hurt his shoulder. Facing a staunch Vikings defense – a stop unit that has held all four home opponents under 20 points – we cannot expect the Ravens to suddenly come alive with TD’s in bunches. Baltimore’s defense is quickly becoming every bit as injury riddled and problematic as their offense. Run stuffing DL Brandon Williams has a foot injury, and the Bears ran for 231 yards against them last week, the third time in four games that Baltimore has given up 165+ on the ground. Cornerbacks Jimmy Smith, Jaylen Hill and safety Ladarius Webb are all questionable or doubtful, none of them healthy. Linebacker Tim Williams won’t play. This is truly a nightmarish injury situation, leaving Baltimore as a clear ‘bet-against’ team; far weaker than their 3-3 record would indicate. Minnesota is not! They’ve enjoyed a STRONG homefield edge in their new digs, winning three of their first four home games by double digit margins. In fact, Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in their first twelve regular season games at US Bank Stadium; an emerging trend worth riding especially when facing a clear ‘bet-against’ foe. Take the Vikings. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7 | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#276) To say this is a ‘circled’ game for the Tennessee Titans is something of an understatement. The Titans have lost 11 consecutive games to the Colts, with Indy and Houston dominating the division and Tennessee ranked nearer to Jacksonville in the AFC South, relegated to ‘bottom feeder’ status. All four losses to Indy over the past two seasons have been hotly contested games, decided by a TD or less. And the Titans are coming off poorly played back-2-back losses. First, they got Deshaun Watson’d in Houston, then they followed that up with a dismal offensive showing with Matt Cassel behind center at Miami last Sunday. In 50 dropbacks over six quarters on the highway over the past two weeks, Cassel netted only 132 passing yards (counting the eight sacks he took). Normal starting QB Marcus Mariota is expected back in the starting lineup tonight. So we’ve got a Titans team with an axe to grind against a divisional rival that has owned them in every reason season. And we’ve got a Titans team with a chip on their collective shoulders, looking to wipe away the stink of their subpar showings over the past two weeks. They’ve got the optimal setting to do that – at home, in front of a raucous Monday Night Football crowd. And there’s no question about which of these two squads has the superior team in 2017. Over the course of their last four games, the Titans have faced three elite defenses – the Jaguars, Seahawks and Texans, all ‘top quartile’ units. Now they’ll take a big step down in class against the suspect Colts stop unit, a defense that allowed 46 points in each of their first two road games; ugly losses to the Rams (by 37) and the Seahawks (by 28). It’s surely worth noting that Tennessee beat that same Seattle team rather comfortably here at Nissan Stadium. We all know that Andrew Luck is still hurt, but Jacoby Brissett has filled his big shoes admirably, guiding Indy to a 2-2 record in his four starts. But Brissett is likely to be running for his life tonight, thanks to cluster injuries on the Colts offensive line. With their top three guards all injured, the Colts are expected to start undrafted second year OL Jeremy Vujovich and undrafted rookie Kyle Kalis at the guard spots this evening. That’s bad news against this defensive front! It’s surely worth noting how well the Titans defense played last week despite Cassel’s ineptitude, holding the Dolphins to 12 first downs and 178 yards, giving up just 3.0 yards per play. No surprise here if Dick LeBeau’s stop unit is a very tough nut for the Indy offense to crack this evening, while the Colts defense does not compare favorably to any of the stop units that Tennessee has seen over the past month. Indy has allowed a full 6.0 yards per play this season; tied for 31st in the NFL. Find a -7 (be smart, lay a little extra juice to get the key number, there are plenty of -7’s at -115 or -120 out there as I type this), and expect the Titans exorcize their Colts demons. Take the Titans. |
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10-15-17 | Rams +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the LA Rams (#265) Jacksonville is 3-2 right now and feeling pretty good about themselves off a blowout win in Pittsburgh last week. Of course, that win was as easy as it gets for the Jags, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing his career high in interceptions – Blake Bortles attempted a grand total of one pass after halftime of that contest. The previous week, the Jags were outgained by more than a yard per play against the Jets two weeks ago, even if you take the Jets two long 70+ yard TD runs out of the mix. This Jags team is capable of winning some games by relying on their playmaking defense coupled with Leonard Fournette’s ability to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. But if Bortles is asked to do anything other than ‘game manage’, he’s a complete disaster, getting worse, not better. It’s not like the Jaguars have enjoyed any sort of reasonable home field advantage in Jacksonville. They lost their only previous home game by three touchdowns to Tennessee. Last year, they lost six times in seven tries here in Jacksonville. My numbers show them with an 9-28 SU mark on this field dating back to the start of the 2012 campaign, a consistent track record of failure. And it’s surely worth noting that in games where the favorite was -2 or higher, the underdog has gone 4-0 ATS in Jaguars games this year; not a team to lay points with! There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game, bad news for a QB like Bortles who makes mistakes under duress. That defense played their best game of the season last week against Seattle; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. The Rams turned the ball over five times last week, their first ‘turnover plagued’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 164 pass attempts for the season, while only taking six sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football. The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Jaguars offense; a full yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco. We’ve seen them win SU on the road at Dallas. While LA is flying East, this is not an early start game. And the Jags homefield edge is as small as any in the NFL. The Rams full season defensive numbers are lying and their offense is the vastly superior unit. Big Ticket: Take the Rams. |
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10-15-17 | Bears +6.5 v. Ravens | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Chicago (#261) The numbers don’t lie. In their last 14 tries as favorites of more than a field goal, the Baltimore Ravens are 3-11 ATS. All three of the covers came against the same team – the Cleveland Browns, the absolute worst team in football in recent seasons. Continuing a long term trend under John Harbaugh, the underdog in Ravens games has been profitable to bet blindly once again this year. Baltimore was the most injury riddled team in the NFL in training camp. Then they went 2-0 to open the campaign against Cinci and Cleveland (when the Bengals were awful, off to an 0-3 start), thanks to an opportunistic (lucky?) defense that created ten turnovers in two games. But the injury bug continued to strike. Without pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda, missing four of their five projected offensive line starters from the start of training camp, the Ravens got beaten by the Jags and Steelers – two limited offensive teams so far this year – by a combined margin of 70-16. That’s the real Ravens; not a team with any business in this pointspread range right now. I know they blew out Oakland last week, in large part due to the Raiders own incompetence. Make no mistake about it -- that victory did not make me think that the Ravens have suddenly solved their myriad of problems; a team that has been outgained by 0.6 yards per play this season. The Bears aren’t a pretty team to watch and they’re certainly not a ‘sexy’ squad with a 1-4 record and a short week to prepare off a Monday Night loss. But the effort has been there for Chicago every week, especially on the defensive side of the football. They’re getting key LB Danny Treviathan back in the lineup after his league mandated suspension. And the Bears season long offensive stats are flat out lying now that Mike Glennon has mercifully been benched for a playmaking Mitch Trubisky. Too many points! Take the Bears. |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#104) There’s a lot to like about the Carolina Panthers right now. A team that went 15-1 SU (11-5 ATS) and went to the Super Bowl two years ago is showing signs that they are capable of putting another strong run together here in 2017. It starts with a stop unit in excellent in early season form, holding foes to 4.8 yards per play, the #4 defense in the NFL right now. The Panthers offense came out of the gate looking very sluggish. Cam Newton missed the entire offseason, recovering from surgery, and he looked rusty and out of sync for the first three weeks of the campaign. Those early season stats are significantly impacting this pointspread, even though they are effectively meaningless now. Cam Newton found his stride against New England two weeks ago, finishing with the seventh highest single game QB rating of his career. He did it again last week in Detroit, finishing with his fourth best QB rating of his career. When a former MVP level QB goes 48-62 for 771 yards and 6 TD’s in two games; we can reasonably assume that he’s a ‘bet-on’ guy moving forward. Panthers LB Thomas Davis: “We had a lot of people who were counting him out at the beginning of the season – really because we kind of limited some of the things he was capable of doing. But now you see him going out and running the ball again. His arm strength is back. And he’s putting the ball on the money.” Yes, the Eagles have won three straight since their loss to KC, but those three wins have come against the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals; three teams that all have significant offensive issues. It’s surely worth noting that those squads are a combined 2-11 SU, 2-10-1 ATS in all games not against one another; both wins coming against fellow bottom feeders Indy and San Fran. And make no mistake about it – Philadelphia’s defense is not built to handle high octane passing attacks without their top cover corner Ronald Darby, who is out indefinitely. To make matters worse, their top interior defensive lineman, Fletcher Cox, is very questionable with a strained calf. The team went 1-9 SU without left tackle Lane Johnson in the lineup last year while going 6-0 with him healthy. Johnson will be out this week, dealing with a concussion. The Eagles defense has been ‘cramming’ for their test on Thursday, a short week with travel for a squad dealing with the injury bug. Safety Malcolm Jenkins: “Last year we played the Giants on Thursday night. That's a divisional opponent. You've got years of notes on them. But this is an opponent that is doing so much offensively that you're not necessarily familiar with what you've got to prepare for and cram for. It makes it tough. We definitely have our hands full over the next couple days.” Defensive end Chris Long: “With a tough team like Carolina and the multitude of looks they give you in the run game and the different ways they can beat you, it's a challenge." I don’t expect Philly to be up for that challenge….. Take the Panthers. |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -100 | 105 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#474) The Houston Texans looked awful offensively in Week 1 with Tom Savage starting at quarterback. They looked every bit as bad in Week 2, travelling to Cincinnati with rookie QB Deshaun Watson promoted to make his first career start on the road on a short week (Thursday Night Game). The stats from those two games make up half the statistical database for the Texans this season, yet they are completely meaningless when we look forward, not backwards. In two games with normal prep time for their rookie QB, the Houston Texans have covered the spread by 10.5 points at New England and by 38.5 points against Tennessee last week. Both the Patriots and Titans are power rated as playoff teams, not weaklings. In my humble opinion, the betting markets are not valuing Houston correctly at this stage of the campaign; a ‘bet-on’ team in every sense of the word! My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting the Texans last week, as easy as it gets. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up for that game, with numbers edited slightly to reflect current realities: “What on earth does DeShaun Watson have to do before the betting markets start to show the Houston Texans a lick of respect. Yes, Watson was rough in his debut, coming off the bench in Week 1 against the Jaguars stout stop unit. Since that time, he engineered an upset win at Cinci on a short week, and followed that up with a brilliant game at New England last week, giving the defending returning Super Bowl champs a sixty minute battle. “I understand that rookie QB’s don’t have full command of the playbook yet. But I also understand that rookie QB’s with the ability to make plays with their feet have a HUGE edge over traditional drop-back passers. That’s at least part of the reason why Dak Prescott excelled in Dallas as a rookie last year, and why both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have enjoyed success very early in their careers. DeShaun Watson can make plays with his feet; averaging 7.8 yards per carry on 19 rushing attempts. He’s also making strong throws downfield – five different Texans receivers have caught a pass of 25 yards or longer already. Speedster Will Fuller, last year’s first round draft choice, made an immediate impact in his first game of the season on the other side of DeAndre Hopkins last week, giving the Texans two legit home run threats. The 33 points Houston hung at New England is a legitimate harbinger of things to come….but the betting markets are not being the least bit proactive with the Texans right now.” But the markets continue to show love for Kansas City, currently power rated as the #1 team in the NFL just about everywhere. I understand the Chiefs have looked really good thusfar. But I also understand that the Chiefs aren’t going 16-0 this year; they’re coming off a huge last minute win (and an extremely fortuitous pointspread cover) on Monday Night against the Redskins; and they’re travelling on a short week to face a defense that completely shut them down last year, holding KC to four field goals. Wrong team favored here; and Houston offers legit Big Ticket value on a weekly basis right now...at least until this national TV game. Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
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10-08-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -1.5 | 35-31 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#472) If you didn’t watch the game last Thursday Night and simply looked at the final score, you might think that Green Bay’s early season issues have been fixed. But if you watched the game, you saw what I saw – the Bears completely melting down, handing the Packers cheap TD after cheap TD. When the carnage ended, Chicago had more first downs than Green Bay, more rushing yards AND more passing yards – with Mike Glennon at QB vs. Aaron Rodgers, yet the Packers had an easy 3 TD victory. Of course, the Bears -4 turnover margin was the key factor in the game…. And bettors just saw the Dallas Cowboys get whipped on their home field by the LA Rams. The Rams are getting plenty of respect here in Vegas, but that level of respect hasn’t seeped out into the broader betting community just yet. So, for many people, it looks like the Cowboys second bad loss in three weeks after they got hammered in Denver. All of this has resulted in a short pointspread here, with Cowboys backers asked to lay less than a field goal, at home, in a ‘playoff revenge’ situation. There’s ample reason to expect a Cowboys victory, by margin. Let me start with the anti-Packers piece of the equation. Green Bay has a cluster injury problem on their offensive line. They beat the Bears last week using four guards and a center, including Lucas Patrick, an undrafted rookie out of Duke. This is a problem against the fierce Cowboys pass rush, with DeMarcus Lawrence leading the NFL in sacks. Green Bay doesn’t have a single rush of longer than 13 yards in their first four games, and starting RB Ty Montgomery – the speedster – isn’t expected to suit up this week. The Packers have undergone a youth infusion in their secondary and, quite frankly, their linebacking corps isn’t very good. These are BIG problems going against a hungry, motivated Cowboys squad coming off a loss. Dez Bryant burned the Packers for 132 receiving yards and two TD’s in the playoff loss last January and he’s coming off his first really good game of the new campaign. Zeke Elliott primed for success here against a Packers stop unit not built to stop balanced attacks and power running games. Dak Prescott showed great leadership following the Cowboys first loss, rallying them from behind at Arizona the following week; a ‘bet-on’ QB in this spot. And Green Bay is an overvalued commodity right now, worth fading in this price range without hesitation. Take the Cowboys. |
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10-08-17 | Jaguars v. Steelers -8 | 30-9 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#458). NOTE: ERROR Correction! This play was originally entered wrong. The correct play is on the STEELERS! Here’s the premise. Pittsburgh came into the season power rated as one of the top Super Bowl contenders; right there with the Patriots, Falcons, Packers, Cowboys and Seahawks. That power rating was probably a bit lofty for the first few weeks – the Steelers offensive starters spent virtually no time on the field together in preseason, with multiple key veterans nursing injuries. That lack of on-field time together hurt Pittsburgh badly in Week 1; a sluggish showing at Cleveland. They faced the Vikings elite defense next, but still won by 17 on this field – their only previous home game in 2017. Then Pittsburgh went to play at Chicago against the Bears stodgy defense and struggled. Last week, against the Ravens quality defense, the offense finally showed signs of breaking out of their funk. Le’Veon Bell got untracked, rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns. Big Ben spread the ball around – five different receivers caught at least three passes. And Pittsburgh won comfortably, despite not putting up gaudy offensive numbers. As a bettor, my goal is to be proactive, not reactive. There’s nothing systemically wrong with the Steelers offense, despite their disappointing production. Let’s not forget how little time they spent together in training camp. Nor should we forget that Pittsburgh has faced good defenses three weeks in a row. And perhaps most importantly, this is a home field that really matters for the Steelers offense! Dating to the start of the 2014 campaign (no need to go back further, these numbers have been consistent for many years), Ben Roethlisberger has an 85.3 QB rating on the highway, but a 109.5 QB rating at home. He’s averaged more than a yard per pass better at home, and the TD-INT ratios are staggering: 62-20 here at Heinz Field vs. 24-23 on the highway. The Steelers have scored 24+ in 13 of their last 14 on this field. The markets have devalued them at least somewhat because of their sluggish start. After a series of mediocre offensive showings, this team is primed to go for the kill this week! Jacksonville was outgained by more than a yard per play against the Jets last week, even if you take the Jets two long TD runs out of the mix. And make no mistake about it – Blake Bortles is getting worse, not better. With the game on the line against the Jets last week, Bortles misfired on pass after pass. He’s lost confidence in himself and his teammates have followed suit. When the Jags can run the football and rely on their defense, they’re certainly capable of playing competitively. But the Steelers defense has been downright nasty all year, a vastly underrated unit that has held foes to just 4.2 yards per play; best in the NFL. And asking Bortles to be decent in a ‘likely to be playing from behind on the road against a tricky, blitzing defense’ situation is not something I’m willing to do. Put it all together and this is a rock solid ‘buy low’ opportunity here for an elite team primed for a breakout game on their home field. Take the Steelers. |
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10-01-17 | 49ers +7 v. Cardinals | 15-18 | Win | 100 | 95 h 40 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#273) I could do this write-up in a single sentence: ‘Arizona has no business laying a TD to anybody right now’. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up recommending a bet against the Cardinals on Monday Night Football against Dallas, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “I can understand the wiseguy rationale supporting Arizona here, but I don’t agree with it one iota. Carson Palmer had a QB rating of 104.6 in 2015. Last year, it declined to 87.2. Through three games here in 2017, Palmer has a QB rating of 76.1, despite facing the Lions and Colts, who finished ranked #32 and #28 against the pass last year based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics, and a Cowboys team minus three starters in the secondary. “Palmer’s struggles are likely to continue; an aging QB at the tail end of his career. Star RB David Johnson is out, and the team averaged only 3.3 yards per carry without him against Indy and only 2.3 yards per rush against Dallas; getting very little from the running game. The Cards offensive line is banged up, with DJ Humprhies and Alex Boone out while Mike Iupati is questionable to suit up. Their receiving corps is a mess, with John Brown likely to miss, Jermaine Gresham and JJ Nelson very questionable and Jaron Brown not 100% either, dealing with a knee injury.” The 49ers won two games last year. Yet a better Arizona team than this one never sniffed a pointspread cover as home favorites against San Fran, winning 23-20. That’s fairly typical for Arizona, now sitting at 6-12 ATS at home since the start of the 2015 campaign; in large part due to a defense that is struggling to get stops. This team can’t be laying TD’s right now, plain and simple. The 49ers offense showed real signs of life last week against the Rams; the first time this season they’ve shown any comfort level with Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes. Their defense fared well twice in three games, the lone exception coming on a very short week. This time around, the Niners have the long week with extra prep time (having played Thursday Night), while the Cardinals are off a short week, having played on Monday Night. That prep edge matters in spread ranges like this one! Take the 49ers. |
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10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons -7.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#268) This game has all the makings of a mismatch for one reason and one reason only. The Falcons offense is elite. The Bills offense is bottom tier. It’s hard for this bettor to picture the Bills defense shutting Atlanta down, and it’s just as hard for me to picture the Bills offense trading points with the Falcons for four full quarters. The results don’t lie. At home, the Falcons have scored 34, 44, 36, 38, 41, 28, 39, 33, 30 and 48 points in their last ten games at Mercedes Benz Stadium, playoffs included. They hung 30 on the road last week in Detroit, despite a three interception showing from Matt Ryan (two of the INT’s bounced off his receivers hands, including one in the red zone that took a scoring opportunity away). It’s surely worth noting that the Falcons SU win with a -3 turnover margin was only the 4th time a team has accomplished that since 2011, with -3 turnover teams now 4-124 SU during that span. Coming off a turnover filled effort like that, returning home to a field where their offensive comfort level is second to none, we can expect another 30+ point performance from Matt Ryan and company here – it’s what they do. So can the Bills hope to trade points with Atlanta? I seriously doubt it! Buffalo hung 26 points against Denver last week, but there was no explosiveness in this offense – they averaged only 4.3 yards per play. Through three games, they’re averaging only 4.6 yards per play, and they were held to a single field goal in their lone road game this season. Tyrod Taylor has shown precious little chemistry with his rebuilt receiving corps – he’s only completed 17 passes to his WR’s in three games! Shady McCoy isn’t even averaging three yards per carry. Bottom line: one team can be expected to score TD’s, the other one cannot. And with Buffalo a tad bit ‘fat and happy’ off their upset win against the Broncos while Atlanta was not amused by their turnover filled near upset at Detroit, the spot reeks of a blowout for the home favorite on Sunday. Take the Falcons. |
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10-01-17 | Titans v. Texans +1.5 | Top | 14-57 | Win | 100 | 92 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#260) What on earth does DeShaun Watson have to do before the betting markets start to show the Houston Texans a lick of respect. Yes, Watson was rough in his debut, coming off the bench in Week 1 against the Jaguars stout stop unit. Since that time, he engineered an upset win at Cinci on a short week, and followed that up with a brilliant game at New England last week, giving the defending returning Super Bowl champs a sixty minute battle. I understand that rookie QB’s don’t have full command of the playbook yet. But I also understand that rookie QB’s with the ability to make plays with their feet have a HUGE edge over traditional drop-back passers. That’s at least part of the reason why Dak Prescott excelled in Dallas as a rookie last year, and why both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have enjoyed success very early in their careers. DeShaun Watson can make plays with his feet; averaging 8.3 yards per carry on 15 rushing attempts through 2 ½ games. He’s also making strong throws downfield – five different Texans receivers have caught a pass of 25 yards or longer already. Speedster Will Fuller, last year’s first round draft choice, is back at practice and could suit up on the other side of DeAndre Hopkins this week, giving the Texans two legit home run threats. The 33 points Houston hung at New England last Sunday is a legitimate harbinger of things to come….but the betting markets are not being the least bit proactive with the Texans right now. Tennessee has one defensive weakness, but it’s a doozy. The Titans are not defending downfield throws very well at all. We saw this defense get picked apart by David Carr and the Raiders in their opener. We saw them get picked apart again last week, as Russell Wilson – with a bottom tier offensive line protecting him and a receiving corps that hadn’t done diddly squat in the first two games – looked like a pro bowler, throwing for 373 yards and four TD’s without an interception while taking only one sack. It’s surely worth noting that this defense has created only three turnovers in three games. No surprise here if the Texans offense lights up the scoreboard again this week. Marcus Mariota has only faced Romeo Crennel’s defense once before and it wasn’t pretty. Crennel’s schemes gave Mariota fits, as he finished just 13-29 without a TD; one of his five worst games as a pro based on QBR ratings. The Titans offense is a notch or two overrated this week after piling it on against a gassed Seahawks defense in the heat last week, putting up stats that were ‘weather and situational’ related more than any other factor. And it’s surely worth noting the Titans propensity for settling for field goals, with only a 40% TD conversion rate in the red zone. That’s not what I’m looking for out of my road favorites. Wrong team favored here! Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#489) Wiseguys enjoyed a HUGE weekend in the NFL, while recreational bettors got burned repeatedly, with one ‘public’ side after the next going down in flames on Sunday. Expect that to change on Monday Night, with the sharp $$ pushing the line down to Dallas -2.5 at many books as I write this. The wiseguys are betting Arizona for two reasons tonight. First, they like the spot for the Cardinals. Arizona is returning home for the first time after playing on the road in Weeks 3 & 4 of the preseason, then again in the first two weeks of the regular season. Secondly, the sharps are clearly concerned with the injuries to the Cowboys secondary with both Nolan Carroll and Chidobe Awuzie ruled out this evening. I can understand the wiseguy rationale here, but I don’t agree with it one iota. Carson Palmer had a QB rating of 104.6 in 2015. Last year, it declined to 87.2. Through two games here in 2017, Palmer has a QB rating of 65.5, despite facing the Lions and Colts, who finished ranked #32 and #28 against the pass last year based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics. Palmer’s struggles are likely to continue this evening, an aging QB at the tail end of his career. Star RB David Johnson is out, and the team averaged only 3.3 yards per carry without him in Indy last week, getting very little from the running game. The Cards offensive line is banged up, with DJ Humprhies expected to miss and Mike Iupati questionable to suit up. Their receiving corps is a mess, with John Brown expected to miss, Jermaine Gresham and JJ Nelson very questionable and Jaron Brown not 100% either, dealing with a knee injury. For what it’s worth, it sure looks as if Larry Fitzgerald has finally lost a step. Even with the Cowboys dinged up secondary, Arizona’s offense is not primed to march up and down the field. The Cowboys were road darlings last year, opening up the season with a 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS mark on the highway, including SU wins in Pittsburgh and Green Bay. This team can handle the intensity of playing in Arizona on a Monday Night. They’re coming off the first true blowout loss of the Dak Prescott/Zeke Elliott era, and based on everything I’ve read, this is a hungry, angry team with something to prove to a national TV audience tonight. Prescott: “I think we just didn’t play our game and we didn’t execute the way that we should or we normally do….I know I’ll get better from it, I know this team will get better from it and it’ll be a learning experience.” Expect the Cowboys to show that they’ve learned their lesson with a road win tonight. Take the Cowboys. |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +9 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 121 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#485) The Packers offense didn’t really work in Week 1 against Seattle. They were shut out in the first half, and one of their two second half TD’s came on a six yard ‘drive’ following a fumble. The Packers offense didn’t really work in Week 2 against Atlanta either. In a ‘shootout’ type of game, the Packers were still sitting on 10 in the fourth quarter, and by then it was garbage time of a blowout loss. Aaron Rodgers has a QBR of just 54.7 through two games, worst of his career if extrapolated to the full season. RB Ty Montgomery, despite his blazing speed, is averaging 3.1 yards per carry with a long rush of eight yards on his 29 attempts. Top WR Jordy Nelson is banged up already, dealing with a quad injury. WR Randall Cobb is banged up too, with a bum shoulder. But perhaps most important injuries of all are on the offensive line, where Jahri Evans and Jason Spriggs are the latest to go down, on the heels of injuries to both starting tackles – Brian Bulaga and David Bahktiari. Yes, that’s three starters and the top backup tackle all dealing with injuries for Green Bay this week. On Monday morning, the headlines will talk about Aaron Rodgers, but the reality is that his OL and his receiving corps is a litany of walking wounded. This is NOT a team primed to win games by big margins right now. Say what you want about the Bengals offense (I’ll say plenty in a moment), but the Bengals defense continues to be an elite unit. Cinci has a red zone touchdown percentage of zero and their offense has turned the ball over an NFL high six times; yet the D has hung tough despite some very adverse circumstances. This is not a defense primed to allow TD’s in bunches against an opponent with significant offensive line issues. And Cinci’s offense has wildly underachieved early. A ‘near player mutiny’ sent former coordinator Ken Zampese to the ranks of the unemployed, replaced by veteran coach Bill Lazor. They’ve had extra time to get ready for Green Bay and install Lazor’s tweaks, off since last Friday. It’s not like the Bengals don’t have offensive talent, and even in the midst of their 2016 debacle, Cinci didn’t suffer any of their last five losses by more than a touchdown. Expect Cinci to hang tough for the full sixty minutes. Take the Bengals. |
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09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 117 h 21 m | Show | |
Take the New York Giants (#479) Let me start with an excerpt from my Monday Night Football write-up supporting the Detroit Lions over the Giants. “These are the offenses that didn’t work in Week 1: San Francisco, Seattle, Indy, Cinci, Houston along with the Jets and Giants, none of whom put up more than a single touchdown on the scoreboard. Guess what – none of those offenses worked in Week 2 either.” Yet I’m taking the points with the Giants in this one, after fading them on Monday Night, another game where their offense didn’t work. What gives? First, this pointspread was sitting at +3.5 prior to Monday Night. Now it’s +6. That’s a pretty big reaction, in my opinion, despite the fact that the Giants are poised to get better, not worse. Obviously, with their receiving corps all banged up during preseason, unable to get on the field together with Eli Manning, the passing game was rusty on Monday Night. OBJ was a non-factor in that game, Brandon Marshall dropped a potential TD pass late and Sterling Shepard didn’t create much separation. Savvy bettors know not to expect what they just saw to happen the exact same way again the following week. Unlike the vast majority of the struggling offenses on the list above, there’s legitimate hope for the Giants. I expect this offense to be improved in the short term. The Eagles are at their weakest defensively in the secondary, a stop unit that is clearly vulnerable to big plays. Three different Redskins receivers caught passes of 28 yards or longer in their opener. There was more of the same last week, allowing a pair of 35+ yard passes and a 50+ yard TD run. Eagles starting cornerback Ronald Darby will be out for at least a month and safeties Jaylen Watkins and Rodney McLeod are dealing with hamstring injuries. Yes, Philly has a solid pass rush, but this is not an elite defense right now, plain and simple. Both games between these two teams last year were decided by exactly five points, the same margin of victory for their season finale in 2015. I went back over the series history from the last decade, and Philly hasn’t been favored by this many points even once! The Giants entered the season with a higher win total and a higher power rating number here in Vegas. Bottom line: expect a competitive game, start to finish, and a better showing from the Giants offense. Take the Giants. |
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09-21-17 | Rams -2 v. 49ers | 41-39 | Push | 0 | 53 h 46 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#301) Let me start with an excerpt from my Monday Night Football write-up supporting the Lions over the Giants. “These are the offenses that didn’t work in Week 1: San Francisco, Seattle, Indy, Cinci, Houston along with the Jets and Giants, none of whom put up more than a single touchdown on the scoreboard. Guess what – none of those offenses worked in Week 2 either.” And that’s the crux of this bet. I circled this quote in preseason, from 12 year veteran left tackle Joe Staley, talking about the complexity of the 49ers new offense, and the team’s struggles to learn it: “I think one of the things that even I wasn’t expecting was how detailed you have to be in everything as far as the run game. Aiming points. Everyone’s got to be on the same page — running backs, linemen, receivers, everybody, for it to work.” The 49ers entered the season without a QB who threw a pass or a WR who caught a pass on the roster from last year. They’ve yet to reach the end zone. And the 49ers certainly aren’t a team with a significant home field edge these days, just 2-7 ATS at Levi Stadium since the start of the 2016 campaign. This offense isn’t working and San Fran is not a team likely to be marching up and down the field consistently anytime soon. The Rams just got run over by the Redskins, but there were many positive signs in that defeat. Todd Gurley, following the late loss: “Last year, it would have been a lot different. It would have been 27-3, instead of us, as an offense, being able to put points on the board and being able to keep our defense in it. It’s a start.” The Rams have stalwart defensive tackle Aaron Donald back on the field after his long holdout. And unlike the Niners, LA’s offense is working. Jared Goff had a 63.6 QB rating last year while averaging 5.3 yards per pass attempt. This year it’s a 103.2 QB rating and 9.8 yards per pass attempt; a HUGE difference (and a big confidence boost) for a young quarterback. The Rams got swept by San Francisco last year, the 49ers only two wins of the season. Expect LA to get a little payback on Thursday Night in a pointspread range that ensures a victory by a field goal will cash our winning bet. Take the Rams. |
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09-18-17 | Lions +3 v. Giants | 24-10 | Win | 105 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#289) These are the offenses that didn’t work in Week 1: San Francisco, Seattle, Indy, Cinci, Houston along with the Jets and Giants, none of whom put up more than a single touchdown on the scoreboard. Guess what – none of those offenses worked in Week 2 either. The defense that shut down the G-men got torched for six touchdowns yesterday. New York has a mediocre QB in Eli Manning, an offensive line that ranks among the weaker ones in the NFL and a very banged up receiving corps, whether OBJ plays or not. And oh, by the way, this offense has gotten statistically weaker every year since Bob McAdoo arrived as the offensive coordinator; even more so since he became the head coach. All the Lions do is play close games – nine of their sixteen games last year were decided LESS than a touchdown. Matthew Stafford led the NFL in fourth quarter comebacks last year and he engineered another one in Week 1 – the Lions have shown ample character responding from adversity. Jim Caldwell’s squad won SU as road underdogs at Indy, Minnesota and New Orleans last year, and they just might have the most electrifying player on the field in rookie WR Kenny Golladay, who has been turning heads since Day 1 of training camp. Find a +3.5 and grab it! Take the Lions |
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