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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -112 | 97 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Pittsburgh (#306) Here a link to the 18-0 angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two from recent seasons. And, of course, my clients and I cashed a winner betting against these same Jaguars last week using this same angle, despite the fact that the Bills made numerous crucial mistakes and didn’t move the football at all. Here’s an excerpt from last week’s write-up, loaded with anti-Jacksonville fodder. “Based on my power rating numbers for the week the games were played, the Jaguars played the single weakest schedule of any playoff team this year. That’s bad news when it comes to playoff time. This bet comes down to one additional factor for me: Blake Bortles. “The Jags had seven blowout wins this year by 16 points or more. Playing with a lead, Bortles was just fine: a 12-1 TD/INT ratio and a passer rating of 107.5. But in the other nine games – games where Bortles was asked to make plays for the Jags to win, his numbers were downright ugly: a 9-12 TD-INT ratio and a passer rating of 73.8 (Trevor Siemian territory). “This stat might be the best of the bunch. Blake Bortles led 26 drives this season in the fourth quarter or OT of one possession games (not counting a kneel down vs. Seattle or a last play Hail Mary INT vs. Tennessee). In those 26 possessions, Bortles produced a grand total of one touchdown, on a 38 yard drive against Arizona.” Blake Bortles is NOT a QB I can trust in a hostile road environment against a strong, playoff tested foe. The Jags were at home against the Bills last week and netted just 75 yards on Blake Bortles 25 drop-backs, not counting scrambles. In fact, on all plays OTHER than Bortles scrambles at home against the Bills, Jacksonville averaged just 2.8 yards per snap. Those are most assuredly NOT confidence inducing numbers. And make no mistake about it – the Steelers still remember the Jags coming into Heinz Field earlier in the season, intercepting five Ben Roethlisberger passes (two of them pick sixes) in a three touchdown win for the road team; the low point of the season for Pittsburgh. Defensive end Stephon Tuitt: “You know how we turn it up in the playoff games. The intensity level rises. People are more focused on the task at hand.” And Mike Tomlin knows what’s coming, the type of game where Pittsburgh’s gameplan is very clear: “They have as clearly a defined a mode of operation as anyone in this (playoff) field in terms of how they play. They run the ball. They control the clock. They have corresponding play action passes. They play formidable defense. They create turnovers. And that's how games unfold for them.” Pittsburgh’s offense wasn’t healthy or in rhythm when these teams met in October. This time around, they’re pretty darn health. Antonio Brown looks good to go off a full practice participation on Tuesday. JuJu Smith Shuster is coming off a nine catch, 143 yard performance in the season finale. Martavis Bryant, too, is in stellar current form, and Le’Veon Bell is fully healthy off two weeks sitting. The Jags defense ruled the day in the first meeting, but I expect the rematch to be very, very different. Big Ticket: Take the Steelers. |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-15 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Jacksonville (#311) Let me start with this basic premise, a premise that has been thoroughly validated by the first 16 weeks of the NFL season: At full strength, the Jaguars are a better team than the Titans. And while Tennessee beat Jacksonville by three touchdowns back in Week 2, the Jags team they faced then is a very different team at this stage of the campaign. That makes this quote from Doug Marrone stand out: “Make no mistake about it so there’s not a lot of talk about it during the week: We’re going to play to win and we’re going to do everything possible to win this game, period. I’m not even thinking about what happens beyond that. That’s the way we’re going to go about our business this week.” The Jags were no-shows in San Fran last Sunday, a rarity for a team that has stepped up rather well this season. It’s surely worth noting that they’ve gone 4-0 SU and ATS off their four previous losses this season, winning each and every one of those games by 20 points or more and covering every spread by a double digit margin. Two of those four wins came as underdogs, a third came as a short favorite. Now that, folks, is a track record worthy of support! Tennessee is anything BUT a confident team at this stage of the campaign. They’ve lost three straight ‘must win’ games, including a home game against the Rams last week, falling apart with the outcome very much in doubt when it mattered most — the fourth quarter. Incredibly, the Titans last win and cover against a competitive foe (not counting the bottom feeders) came back in Week 3 against the Seahawks. Mike Mularkey certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence for this bettor in a ‘must win’ game as chalk against a focused foe that is the superior squad. Big Ticket: Take the Jaguars. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 54 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Baltimore (#131) Ryan Shazier matters. The Steelers star linebacker is still in the hospital dealing with a spine injury following Pittsburgh’s brutally physical, ultra-intense, come-from-behind win on Monday Night Football. There’s been a notable loss in the locker room this week. Defensive coordinator Keith Butler: “(We’re) not worried about his football career, (we’re) worried about HIM.” Shazier’s absence is only one piece of the puzzle for the Steelers defense this week. Shazier’s backup, Tyler Matakevich, has been unable to practice all week, last seen wearing a shoulder harness. Cornerback Joe Haden is out again. Since his injury, the Steelers have allowed more pass plays of 30+ yards than any team in the NFL. Safety Mike Mitchell has missed two of the last three games as well, very questionable for Sunday. On a short week, off a physical game, these defensive injuries are meaningful! When the Steelers are forced to make waiver wire moves like picking up Sean Spence (a guy who couldn’t last with the lowly Colts, cut back in October) and put him in practice with the first stringers, it’s a problem. Let’s not forget that ancient James Harrison has only made three tackles all season, inactive for more than a month. These Steelers injuries are coming at just the wrong time – not to mention that they’ve got a pretty serious lookahead going for next week, with the #1 seed in the AFC on the line as they battle the Patriots. The Ravens season long offensive numbers are downright ugly. Joe Flacco is dead last in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt (counting sacks). RB Alex Collins has struggled in three straight road games, gaining only 2.8 yards per attempt on his 43 carries. But here in December, those numbers are flat out lying! Flacco might have had his best game of the season -certainly his best game since Week 5 at Oakland -- last week, finding Jeremy Maclin, finding Mike Wallace, finding Ben Watson, finding Danny Woodhead -- 10 different Ravens caught a pass. Meanwhile, Collins is up to 4.9 yards per carry and he’s punched in four TD’s over the past three weeks. The Ravens offense is pointed in the right direction; the Steelers defense in the wrong direction. Baltimore won’t have star cornerback Jimmy Smith following his season ending injury last week. But John Harbaugh isn’t short on cornerback depth, by any stretch of the imagination, with first rounder Marlon Humphrey poised to step in on the other side from Brandon Carr. John Harbaugh, talking about his rookie CB: “He is a self-starter. You don’t have to prod him really, to calm him down, because he is new to it.” Brandon Carr: “All the intangibles are there. He is smart, physical and can run. He is willing to take his lumps and he is going to be OK.” It’ll be at least somewhat easier for the Ravens secondary this week because Steelers second leading receiver JuJu Smith Shuster is out – Pittsburgh’s WR depth is rather limited these days. And it’s surely worth noting that Pittsburgh’s 26-9 win over Baltimore as -3.5 point favorites back in Week 4 was the first time either team had covered a pointspread of higher than -3 in this series since 2007, when Brian Billick was in his last season as the Ravens head coach. Laying points in this series has been an exercise in failure. Expect a tight, competitive contest that comes down to the final possession – exactly what we expect when the Steelers and Ravens collide. Big Ticket: Take the Ravens. |
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11-19-17 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 15 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#461) From all indications, we can stick a fork in the Houston Texans right about now, because they are done. Think about what this squad has been through since the start of training camp. A hurricane severely disrupted their preseason. Their head coach cost them potential upsets at New England and Seattle with inane late game decision making. Their owner infuriated his players with his remarks at a well-publicized meeting in an atmosphere of racial tension. Their two best defensive players got knocked out for the year in a national TV home beatdown by KC. Their pro bowl offensive tackle held out, came back for a couple of weeks and then was traded at the deadline. And then, the final straw, was when their sparkplug, QB Deshaun Watson, in the midst of setting all time rookie records, went down in practice. Talk about going through the ringer! Tom Savage is god-awful. The Texans immediate, immense improvement once Watson took over as the starting QB was no accident. In the three games that Savage has started this year, the Texans scored a grand total of three offensive touchdowns, exactly one per game. They are 0-3 in those games, losing twice as a favorite (-6 and -5.5). All three of those losses came by double digits against the pointspread. Savage has completed only 47% of his passes, not throwing at an NFL level. There’s a reason that the Texans have brought in a half dozen QB’s since drafting Savage – they know he shouldn’t be out there. Deep threat Will Fuller won’t play this week, an underrated key to Houston’s gameplan. The Texans aren’t primed to score many points here, and this defense isn’t stopping anyone; picked apart consistently since Watt and Mercilus went down. Arizona continues to fight the good fight, and Blaine Gabbert is an undervalued commodity in this equation. The Cardinals, too, have suffered the injury bug in a big way this season. Yes, they’ve suffered a couple of ugly, embarrassing losses at Philly and against the Rams in London – two elite teams, mind you. But we’ve seen plenty of fight in Bruce Arians squad – two wins and a hard fought loss against the Seahawks last week. They’ve had extra prep time here off the Thursday game, and with 40 career starts under his belt and the ability to scramble out of the pocket, Blaine Gabbert is a QB I want my money on this week. Arians, talking about Gabbert at the end of the preseason: “I've been very pleased. Short-term, I'd be very comfortable if he had to play for us. Long-term, if he continues at this rate, he could be a starter.” Arians this past week, when asked why Gabbert has such a bad reputation as an NFL QB : “He was on really shitty teams.” Which he was; playing behind arguably the worst offensive lines in the NFL in both San Francisco and Jacksonville. Arizona’s offensive line isn’t great, but it’s better than anything Gabbert has played behind in his career! This game ain’t no pick ‘em – Arizona is the superior, harder playing squad, primed to win on Sunday. Big Ticket: Take the Cardinals. |
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11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Buffalo (#264) This is the mother of all bad spots for the road favorite Saints, and the mother of all good spots for the home underdog Bills. The matchups work in Buffalo’s favor here, on both sides of the football. And yet public perception is down on Buffalo, while market support for New Orleans is sky high right now – my power rating number has the Bills as chalk here. When the matchups, situation and value all point in the same direction, we’re talking about a play worthy of Big Ticket status. Yes, the Saints have won six in a row since their 0-2 start. But this is not a team that is going 14-2, destined to never lose another game in the regular season. The quotes coming out of the New Orleans locker room have been pretty clear. The Saints know full well that they are not an elite ballclub. And they’re also a notch or two ‘fat and happy’ following a blowout home victory over their divisional rivals. Buffalo in November – even with fair conditions and gametime temperatures expected to be above 40 degrees – is not the Saints optimal venue; a team built for domes and turf. And the Saints are anything but battle tested during this winning streak where just about everything has broken right for them. This is NOT a ‘max intensity’ spot for the road team. The Saints six game winning streak has been mostly ‘right place, right time’. They faced Carolina before the Panthers fixed their broken offense. They got Jay Cutler in London. They got Detroit on a day where the Saints scored three non-offensive touchdowns. They got Brett Hundley in his NFL starting debut and Mitch Trubisky in his third career start. Last week, it was an ailing Jameis Winston before he gave way to tired retread Ryan Fitzpatrick. That, folks, is anything BUT a tough slate. Tyrod Taylor will be the best QB this team has seen in more than a month! The Saints defense has been great against the pass facing mostly bottom tier quarterbacks. But despite all of those weak QB’s and weak passing games that they’ve faced, New Orleans is still struggling to stop the run. That’s bad news against LeSean McCoy and the Bills power rushing game. McCoy wasn’t fresh last Thursday against the Jets, but the extra rest has him primed for a big bounceback this week. The Bills should get leading receiver TE Charles Clay back on the field here. And the Saints braintrust won’t have any film to watch trying to figure out how the Bills are going to use recently acquired Kelvin Benjamin at WR this week, giving Taylor another downfield weapon. The Bills pass defense has better overall numbers than New Orleans, with a 76.6 QB rating allowed. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) at home this year, gaining a legitimate edge when playing in Orchard Park. Coming off their debacle last Thursday Night, facing road trips to KC and LA, followed by the Patriots over the next three weeks, this IS a max intensity spot for the home underdog. Take the +3, but be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline in a game that the Bills are primed to win in outright fashion. Big Ticket: Take the Bills. |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 105 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket NFL Game of the YEAR: Take Green Bay (#474) Remember that Green Bay Packers team that we saw before the bye week losing badly at home to New Orleans? Well, you should probably forget that game – it’s a long way in the rear view mirror now, and the Packers team that we saw before the bye is not the one we’re likely to see coming out of the break. But the betting markets aren’t seeing it that way, installing the Lions as road favorites. That, folks, is a downright silly overreaction based pointspread, making the Packers as home dogs on Monday Night the single best bet I’ve seen in the NFL all season, truly worthy of GOY status. Here are my four basic premises. First, the Packers offense, other than Aaron Rodgers, is as healthy as they’ve been all year. Second, Brett Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, but he’s more than capable of stepping up here. Third, the Lions aren’t very good and they never win in Green Bay. And fourth, from a situational standpoint, this is a CRUCIAL game for Green Bay in the division; a team that is still expected to get Aaron Rodgers back before the playoffs. Coming off their bye, we can expect the Packers ‘A’ game on Monday Night. The Packers are expected to have all five starting offensive linemen this week. They had one of the five healthy against New Orleans fierce pass rush before the bye. Tackle David Bakhtiari: “Being healthy is key. The bye week was definitely nice — especially with how banged up we were. Us offensive linemen, we were pretty much limping into this bye week. I think that’s big, too.” Head coach Mike McCarthy: “It’ll be great to have those five guys. We’ve talked about this time and time again that the best offensive lines are the ones that line up and practice and play together.” TE Martellus Bennett will be back on the field as well, key for a young QB like Hundley. Hundley was a projected first rounder coming out of UCLA until a disappointing senior season. Hundley showed well in the preseason, making plays with his feet as well as his arm. Hundley wasn’t good against the Vikings or the Saints in his first two outings, but Green Bay’s offensive line was a big part of that, as were the quality of the two defenses that he faced. Hundley stayed in Green Bay during the bye and got extra one-on-one work in with the coaching staff. Detroit isn’t anywhere near the Vikings or Saints when it comes to their pass rush or their ability to control the line of scrimmage on the defensive side of the football. Let me make this very clear – Brett Hundley is a ‘bet-on’ QB this week, coming out of the bye! The Lions are 1-25 SU at Lambeau Field since 1992, a house of horrors for Detroit year after year after year. This is certainly not a venue that bodes well for the Lions as road chalk. Detroit comes in off yet another frustrating defeat; their third straight loss, gaining more than 480 yards of offense against the Steelers without getting the ball into the end zone even once. Since their 2-0 start, the Lions have only covered one pointspread, and they’ve yet to cover ANY pointspreads this year as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Packers are 9-2 SU after the bye under Mike McCarthy. Both SU losses came on the road against teams that were undefeated at the time. Each of their last seven wins out of the bye week have been relatively comfortable, by a TD or more – they’re coming back rested and focused, consistently. Green Bay hasn’t quit on their coach or their season; a team that is still very much alive in the playoff race despite Aaron Rodgers injuries and their current two game skid. Expect a strong showing on Monday Night in a game where the betting markets appear to be reading the wrong tea leaves. Extraordinary value here! Big Ticket GOY: Take the Packers. |
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10-29-17 | Panthers +2 v. Bucs | Top | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Carolina (#257) This is a HUGE game for both squads. Tampa is 2-4, losers of three straight and on the verge of a complete collapse. Carolina is sitting at 4-3, but they’re coming off ugly back-2-back losses; sitting on the brink themselves. But only one of these two teams is primed to step up with a winning effort this week – the road underdog. Tampa’s problems aren’t getting fixed anytime soon. There’s clear dissention in the locker room, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Plain and simple – this injury riddled unit isn’t buying what defensive coordinator Mike Smith is selling, as clearly evidenced by these quotes: Offseason free agent acquisition TJ Ward, unhappy with the defensive rotations following their loss to Buffalo last week: “I did not come here to rotate. I did not come here to be a part-time player. I came here to make this defense better." Pro bowl defensive linemen Gerald McCoy, talking about the scheme: “I just play what they call. I don't have a say so in what we run, I just kind of go with it. I'm a team guy, so I do what they ask me to do. Do I feel like I could've been more effective in a different way? Yes. But I'm a team guy. It's not about Gerald. Whatever coach calls is what I'm going to run.” Smith’s issues calling plays for the defense are likely to continue to be a problem this week. For the season, the Bucs have only four interceptions, while allowing a whopping 295 yards per game through the air. They rank dead last in the NFL in both sacks and sack percentage. And they’re dealing with cluster injuries at cornerback. One starter, Robert McClain, is in concussion protocol, unlikely to suit up. The other starter, Brett Grimes, missed last week with a shoulder injury and hasn’t practiced this week either. McClain has played 215 snaps over the last four games. The only two experienced backups on the roster have combined for five snaps during that same span. The season ending injury to DE Noah Spence isn’t likely to help their struggling pass rush. No pass rush and an injury riddled secondary is a very hard thing for any NFL team to overcome, let alone a team that is clearly beset with chemistry issues between the coaching staff and the players. In short, the Bucs are a clear ‘bet-against’ team moving forward, especially with QB Jameis Winston unable to practice all week with a bum shoulder. I do not expect this defense to get any better in the short term, a stop unit ranked among the bottom five in the NFL in key metrics like yards per play allowed and opposing QB rating allowed. Don’t be fooled by Cam Newton’s struggles interacting with the media. That does not make Cam Newton a ‘bet-against’ QB by any stretch of the imagination. He’s still at 64% completions for the season – best of his career – while averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt – second only to his Super Bowl season over the last five years. The problem has been turnovers, more than any other factor; a team that allowed a pair of 75+ yard defensive scores last week, now sitting at -9 for the season – only the Browns are worse. Facing a Bucs defense that doesn’t force turnovers is exactly what Cam Newton and this offense need. And, no, this locker room isn’t turning on itself like the one in Tampa seems to be, despite their level of frustration. WR Kelvin Benjamin: “I think everybody is frustrated. The whole offense was frustrated because the defense was giving us 3-and-outs and we didn’t put points up.” Offensive coordinator Mike Shula, trying to explain why they’ve struggled over the last two weeks after putting up 60 points in SU road wins at Detroit and New England in weeks 4 & 5. “We’re not as far off as we think. It feels like we are, and we all feel terrible.” The Panthers should have both LB Luke Kuechly and safety Kurt Coleman back in the lineup this week, two huge adds for a stop unit that gave up a grand total of five first downs and one field goal last Sunday. They’ve got a comparable offense, the MUCH better defense, the better locker room situation and the better chance at turning things around and salvaging their season. Wrong team favored here. Big Ticket: Take Carolina. |
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10-22-17 | Broncos +2 v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver (#473) My clients and I have already cashed one Big Ticket winner betting against the Chargers at the StubHub Center in LA. It was a sin of omission not to have more than one winning bet so far against a team with legitimately no home field advantage whatsoever. This week, they’re facing a superior opponent, fully motivated off an embarrassing loss last week; an opponent they’ve already been dominated by once this season. And LA is the favorite here, laying points! I’m not buying it! Philip Rivers did not look comfortable at the Stub Hub center in the preseason, complaining among other things about the locations of the play clocks and the sight lines for his receivers. The numbers show that very clearly through the first six weeks of the season, with a 3:3 TD-INT ratio in three games at home, compared to a 7:2 ratio in three games on the highway. No surprise, then, that the Chargers have yet to win a game or cover a pointspread in their new home. Yet the markets continue to factor in a home field edge for LA. Expect the Broncos to have as many fans (or more) at StubHub as the Chargers do; exactly what we saw in LA’s home losses to the Eagles, Chiefs and Dolphins. It’s surely worth noting that LA hasn’t put together a winning ATS record in the home favorite’s role since 2013. They’ve lost both previous tries as favorites this season SU and (of course) ATS. The Chargers were largely non-competitive for three quarters of the first meeting between these two squads. Trailing 24-7 in the fourth quarter, LA took advantage of a pair of Broncos turnovers in Denver territory as well as a missed Denver field goal to make the final score (24-21) look closer than the game actually was. Now the Chargers are returning home, fat and happy, off back-2-back tough road wins. Of course, the two wins came against the hapless Giants (0-5 at the time) and the hapless Raiders (major disappointment, injured QB and a four game losing streak). The markets, doing what they do, are convinced that LA is primed to make a run here, but I’m not buying that argument one iota. LA didn’t beat the Giants and Raiders as much as those two sorry teams beat themselves. And they’ll be facing a Broncos squad primed to make a statement off their dismal ‘no-show’ at home against the Giants last week. The Broncos defense was flat last week in a game where they had precious little film to prepare for what they were going to see against the Giants new look offense. I’m not expecting that to happen twice in a row, especially off a loss and facing a divisional foe. For the season, the Broncos have held foes to 3.0 yards per carry, the #1 ranked run defense in the NFL. The Chargers rank #31 in that category, opponents averaging a full 5.0 yards per carry differential. Denver has a big defensive edge against the pass too, ranked #6 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed compared to the Chargers #16 rank. Plain and simple: Denver is the better of these two teams, and I expect them to show it! Wrong team favored. Big Ticket: Take the Broncos. |
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10-15-17 | Rams +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the LA Rams (#265) Jacksonville is 3-2 right now and feeling pretty good about themselves off a blowout win in Pittsburgh last week. Of course, that win was as easy as it gets for the Jags, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing his career high in interceptions – Blake Bortles attempted a grand total of one pass after halftime of that contest. The previous week, the Jags were outgained by more than a yard per play against the Jets two weeks ago, even if you take the Jets two long 70+ yard TD runs out of the mix. This Jags team is capable of winning some games by relying on their playmaking defense coupled with Leonard Fournette’s ability to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. But if Bortles is asked to do anything other than ‘game manage’, he’s a complete disaster, getting worse, not better. It’s not like the Jaguars have enjoyed any sort of reasonable home field advantage in Jacksonville. They lost their only previous home game by three touchdowns to Tennessee. Last year, they lost six times in seven tries here in Jacksonville. My numbers show them with an 9-28 SU mark on this field dating back to the start of the 2012 campaign, a consistent track record of failure. And it’s surely worth noting that in games where the favorite was -2 or higher, the underdog has gone 4-0 ATS in Jaguars games this year; not a team to lay points with! There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game, bad news for a QB like Bortles who makes mistakes under duress. That defense played their best game of the season last week against Seattle; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. The Rams turned the ball over five times last week, their first ‘turnover plagued’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 164 pass attempts for the season, while only taking six sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football. The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Jaguars offense; a full yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco. We’ve seen them win SU on the road at Dallas. While LA is flying East, this is not an early start game. And the Jags homefield edge is as small as any in the NFL. The Rams full season defensive numbers are lying and their offense is the vastly superior unit. Big Ticket: Take the Rams. |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -100 | 105 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#474) The Houston Texans looked awful offensively in Week 1 with Tom Savage starting at quarterback. They looked every bit as bad in Week 2, travelling to Cincinnati with rookie QB Deshaun Watson promoted to make his first career start on the road on a short week (Thursday Night Game). The stats from those two games make up half the statistical database for the Texans this season, yet they are completely meaningless when we look forward, not backwards. In two games with normal prep time for their rookie QB, the Houston Texans have covered the spread by 10.5 points at New England and by 38.5 points against Tennessee last week. Both the Patriots and Titans are power rated as playoff teams, not weaklings. In my humble opinion, the betting markets are not valuing Houston correctly at this stage of the campaign; a ‘bet-on’ team in every sense of the word! My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting the Texans last week, as easy as it gets. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up for that game, with numbers edited slightly to reflect current realities: “What on earth does DeShaun Watson have to do before the betting markets start to show the Houston Texans a lick of respect. Yes, Watson was rough in his debut, coming off the bench in Week 1 against the Jaguars stout stop unit. Since that time, he engineered an upset win at Cinci on a short week, and followed that up with a brilliant game at New England last week, giving the defending returning Super Bowl champs a sixty minute battle. “I understand that rookie QB’s don’t have full command of the playbook yet. But I also understand that rookie QB’s with the ability to make plays with their feet have a HUGE edge over traditional drop-back passers. That’s at least part of the reason why Dak Prescott excelled in Dallas as a rookie last year, and why both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have enjoyed success very early in their careers. DeShaun Watson can make plays with his feet; averaging 7.8 yards per carry on 19 rushing attempts. He’s also making strong throws downfield – five different Texans receivers have caught a pass of 25 yards or longer already. Speedster Will Fuller, last year’s first round draft choice, made an immediate impact in his first game of the season on the other side of DeAndre Hopkins last week, giving the Texans two legit home run threats. The 33 points Houston hung at New England is a legitimate harbinger of things to come….but the betting markets are not being the least bit proactive with the Texans right now.” But the markets continue to show love for Kansas City, currently power rated as the #1 team in the NFL just about everywhere. I understand the Chiefs have looked really good thusfar. But I also understand that the Chiefs aren’t going 16-0 this year; they’re coming off a huge last minute win (and an extremely fortuitous pointspread cover) on Monday Night against the Redskins; and they’re travelling on a short week to face a defense that completely shut them down last year, holding KC to four field goals. Wrong team favored here; and Houston offers legit Big Ticket value on a weekly basis right now...at least until this national TV game. Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
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10-01-17 | Titans v. Texans +1.5 | Top | 14-57 | Win | 100 | 92 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#260) What on earth does DeShaun Watson have to do before the betting markets start to show the Houston Texans a lick of respect. Yes, Watson was rough in his debut, coming off the bench in Week 1 against the Jaguars stout stop unit. Since that time, he engineered an upset win at Cinci on a short week, and followed that up with a brilliant game at New England last week, giving the defending returning Super Bowl champs a sixty minute battle. I understand that rookie QB’s don’t have full command of the playbook yet. But I also understand that rookie QB’s with the ability to make plays with their feet have a HUGE edge over traditional drop-back passers. That’s at least part of the reason why Dak Prescott excelled in Dallas as a rookie last year, and why both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have enjoyed success very early in their careers. DeShaun Watson can make plays with his feet; averaging 8.3 yards per carry on 15 rushing attempts through 2 ½ games. He’s also making strong throws downfield – five different Texans receivers have caught a pass of 25 yards or longer already. Speedster Will Fuller, last year’s first round draft choice, is back at practice and could suit up on the other side of DeAndre Hopkins this week, giving the Texans two legit home run threats. The 33 points Houston hung at New England last Sunday is a legitimate harbinger of things to come….but the betting markets are not being the least bit proactive with the Texans right now. Tennessee has one defensive weakness, but it’s a doozy. The Titans are not defending downfield throws very well at all. We saw this defense get picked apart by David Carr and the Raiders in their opener. We saw them get picked apart again last week, as Russell Wilson – with a bottom tier offensive line protecting him and a receiving corps that hadn’t done diddly squat in the first two games – looked like a pro bowler, throwing for 373 yards and four TD’s without an interception while taking only one sack. It’s surely worth noting that this defense has created only three turnovers in three games. No surprise here if the Texans offense lights up the scoreboard again this week. Marcus Mariota has only faced Romeo Crennel’s defense once before and it wasn’t pretty. Crennel’s schemes gave Mariota fits, as he finished just 13-29 without a TD; one of his five worst games as a pro based on QBR ratings. The Titans offense is a notch or two overrated this week after piling it on against a gassed Seahawks defense in the heat last week, putting up stats that were ‘weather and situational’ related more than any other factor. And it’s surely worth noting the Titans propensity for settling for field goals, with only a 40% TD conversion rate in the red zone. That’s not what I’m looking for out of my road favorites. Wrong team favored here! Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
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09-17-17 | Dolphins +4 v. Chargers | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#277) My initial thought on the ‘hurricane impeded’ teams in both the NFL and college was to fade them at every reasonable opportunity. And, at first glance, the Miami Dolphins certainly had the look of a team who would be negatively impacted by the weather event in South Florida, much like the Houston Texans were negatively influenced by Hurricane Harvey in their opener last week. But the knee jerk reaction – ‘fade this team’ – didn’t hold water once I started doing some digging on this game. In fact, the opposite was true – Miami is a ‘bet-on’ squad this week, plain and simple. The Dolphins coaching staff had their act together. The team charter left for LA last Friday, with players AND THEIR FAMILIES invited to leave town. They’ve been practicing at the Cowboys facility in Oxnard ever since, focused on only one thing – beating the LA Chargers. The Chargers are on a short week, and their entire focus was on beating Denver on Monday Night. In terms of ‘preparation for the opponent at hand’, Adam Gase and his staff have a significant edge. That’s not the only edge for Miami in this contest. The Chargers defense was on the field for 68 snaps against Denver, in altitude. Now they’ve got a short week to get ready for the type of speedy playmakers they didn’t see in Denver on Monday Night, and a QB protected by a much stronger offensive line than the one they saw against the Broncos. Make no mistake about it – Miami has weapons to stretch the field with Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, Julius Thomas and DeVante Parker. They’ve got offensive balance, with Jay Ajayi running behind that rock solid offensive line. And while Jay Cutler gives some bettors recurring nightmares, the bottom line is that Cutler knows this system well from his time under Gase in Chicago, primed to succeed in his Dolphins debut. Philip Rivers did not look comfortable at the Stub Hub center in the preseason, complaining among other things about the locations of the play clocks and the sight lines for his receivers. And when you talk about a home field edge – well, the Chargers don’t have one in a venue that is just as new to them as it is to Miami. And let’s be real – the city of LA is not excited about hosting a team from San Diego. StubHub Center seats only 27,000, yet this game is not sold out – not even close. The Rams – a team with a legit LA fan base – are kicking off across town 20 minutes later. So, let me recap. The Dolphins are power rated in the same range as the Chargers – no talent edge for the home team. Miami has a strong situational edge, the focus edge, the rest and practice edge PLUS the Chargers have no real home field edge. It’s surely worth noting that LA hasn’t put together a winning ATS record in the home favorite’s role since 2013. I expect the outright upset, but a close loss will serve our purposes just fine in this pointspread range! Big Ticket: Take the Dolphins. |
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09-10-17 | Raiders v. Titans +1 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -115 | 458 h 44 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Tennessee (#464) I could literally write a book about why Tennessee is such a great bet in a pick ‘em price range in Week 1 at home against the Raiders. But I’m going to abbreviate and keep this one short. There are two basic components: #1: Tennessee is really good. The Titans went 8-4 down the stretch last year; including wins over playoff bound foes like Green Bay, Houston and Kansas City. Their home field was particularly strong, winning and covering each of their last four. This year’s Titans squad is primed to be even better than last year’s team. A defense that forced only 18 takeaways in 16 games last season brought in ‘instant impact’ playmaker Logan Ryan to shore up their secondary. And the Corey Davis/Taywan Taylor duo taken in the draft have upgraded Marcus Mariota’s weaponry. Throw in an elite offensive line and a strong tier of running backs, and the Titans are primed to build off last year’s success, starting right here in Week 1. The Titans lost at home to Minnesota in Week 1 last year and they followed that up with a Week 3 home loss to the Raiders thanks to a +2 turnover margin and a late defensive stand. Tennessee ended up missing the playoffs due to tiebreakers because of those two losses. There’s a legitimate sense of urgency for the Titans to come out of the gate with a win this time around, good news for us in this pick ‘em price range. And #2, there are ample reasons to expect the Raiders to come out sluggish in Week 1. Obviously, an early start game back East requires a ratchet to the system – all four of their preseason games were played at night out West. Oakland committed only 14 giveaways last year, a number primed to rise significantly. And the Raiders 6-0 SU mark in games decided by less than a TD is also primed for regression. Perhaps most importantly, the Raiders don’t match up well with Tennessee. Oakland’s biggest weakness heading into the season is their front seven on defense, very questionable against the run. This defense ranked next to last in the NFL, allowing six yards per play last year. Their pass rush couldn’t reach the QB, ranked dead last in sacks, and their run defense was bottom quartile in yards per rush allowed. Neither area was properly addressed in the offseason, and both their lack of pass rush and their struggles defending the run are likely to be problematic here. Oakland pulled off a bunch of last minute comebacks last year; very difficult to repeat when it comes to a Week 1 matchup against a talented and motivated foe. Big Ticket: Take the Tennessee Titans. |
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01-07-17 | Raiders +4 v. Texans | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oakland (#101) I have no hesitation betting against the Houston Texans with a Big Ticket sized wager in a game where they’ll have to win by margin in order to cover the pointspread. Let me start with a Bill Barnwell quote from ESPN.com: “By most advanced metrics, the Texans are one of the worst playoff teams in recent history. They finished 29th in DVOA, falling between the Rams and 49ers, both of whom fired their head coaches this season. Their minus-49 point differential is the fourth-worst figure for a playoff team since the league went to its current divisional structure in 2002.” But it’s far more than stats that have me stepping up my wager to Big Ticket status fading Houston in this pointspread range! Let’s start with the most obvious stat – strength of schedule. Dating back to 2002, teams with the tougher regular season schedule (based on Sagarin numbers) are 40-16 SU, 40-15-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. With a differential of 10 spots or higher, that ATS mark improves to 23-4 SU, 22-4-1 ATS. The Raiders ranked #4 in NFL SOS this year. The Texans ranked #18. Houston beat two playoff teams all year. They had a HUGE revenge matchup with the Chiefs in Week 2, a game where JJ Watt dominated. Watt, of course, is out for the year now. And they beat the Lions at home in October by seven, a hotly contested game. It’s surely worth noting that those same Lions faced three playoff foes over the last three weeks and got smacked around by all of them, far worse than what Houston was able to do. The Texans lost SU to every other playoff team they faced. And five of their last six wins overall have come by five points or less, not a team that is building margins even against lesser competition. Then there’s the Brock Osweiler factor. Osweiler finished the regular season with a 72.2 QB Rating. Among full time NFL starters, only Ryan Fitzpatrick was worse. The Texans faithful gave their loudest ovation of the year when Osweiler was benched for Tom Savage against the Jaguars three weeks ago. And, after Savage guided them to another win against the Bengals the following week, he suffered a concussion at Tennessee last Sunday, forcing Osweiler back into action. So, we’ve got one of the worst QB’s in the NFL, playing in front of a home crowd who has booed him off the field repeatedly. That QB just got benched, forced back into the lineup only because of injury. The Raiders beat Osweiler already this year and they beat him last year as well – a 15-12 Raiders win in Denver, that sparked the return of Peyton Manning for the Broncos run to the Super Bowl. And how confident can this Texans team really be after losing their playoff opener at home 30-0 to the Chiefs last year – another playoff loss and this team becomes the new Bengals! The betting markets are obviously not enamored with the prospect of a rookie QB in Connor Cook, getting his first career start on the road in the playoffs against a quality defense – hence this inflated pointspread. It’s a situation that hasn’t happened even once before in the 50+ years of the Super Bowl era. That being said, I’ve got to talk about the Dallas Cowboys. When Tony Romo got hurt in Week 3 of the preseason on the heels of an earlier injury to backup QB Kellen Moore, the conventional wisdom was that Dallas was in trouble. But an unheralded rookie QB drafted in the fourth round, Dak Prescott, came in and guided the team to a 13-3 record, best in the NFC. How did Prescott do it? Simple – he had an elite offensive line to protect him. He had a strong running game to take pressure off him. And he had a strong receiving corps who could make tough catches for him. That’s exactly what Connor Cook has in Oakland. The Raiders have three pro bowlers on their offensive line. They have Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree to catch passes downfield. They’ve got rookie speedster DeAndre Washington and beefy Latavius Murray creating a nice ‘Thunder & Lightning’ combo in the backfield. Cook is no Derek Carr, but Oakland wouldn’t be an underdog if Carr was playing. Then again, they shouldn’t be an underdog here—the betting markets, as they often do, have overreacted. So, can Connor Cook play a lick? Michigan State went 13-1, 11-2 and 12-2 in his three years as the Spartans starter. This year, without him, they went 3-9. Michael Crabtree: "Connor (Cook) is, I can't wait to see him play this week.” Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio: “First of all, Connor has got a huge upside. He's played on a big stage. He was the Rose Bowl MVP when he was a sophomore. He was the MVP in the Big 10 Championship Game, just things of that nature. He's been in the spotlight. I know it's an elevated level of play and it's all relative, but he's played on a big stage and he's had a lot of anxiety, big-game jitters, and things like that, and he's played very well in those games. That's going to serve him as well this weekend." More Dantonio: “He's got a big arm. He can throw you open. He's a big guy, as they all probably are in that league, he's 6-4 plus, probably 230. But he's got a live arm. I think he prepares very well. He was very particular in terms of everything," Dantonio said. "He wanted to be right. Good at overcoming mistakes, that's as big as anything. He threw an interception and bounced back from that, and continued to play on through it. I don't think he's going to be intimidated by the scope of the game. That hasn't been a problem for him when he was here. I expect him to play very well." The Raiders didn’t win 12 games this year after more than a decade of futility by accident. They didn’t go 7-2 SU away from home by accident. No, they’re probably not Super Bowl contenders with Connor Cook behind center, but they’re better than Houston on any field. Khalil Mack: "Win or go home so it's...time (to step up). Getting ready to go down there (to Houston) and have our best game of the year." Big Ticket: Take the Raiders. |
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01-01-17 | Raiders +1.5 v. Broncos | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oakland (#331) I’m going to start this write-up by talking about the Dallas Cowboys. When Tony Romo got hurt in Week 3 of the preseason on the heels of an earlier injury to backup QB Kellen Moore, the conventional wisdom was that Dallas was in trouble. But an unheralded rookie QB drafted in the fourth round, Dak Prescott, came in and guided the team to a 13-2 record, best in the NFC. How did Prescott do it? Simple – he had an elite offensive line to protect him. He had a strong running game to take pressure off him. And he had a strong receiving corps who could make tough catches for him. That’s exactly what Matt McGloin has in Oakland. The Raiders have three pro bowlers on their offensive line. They ran for 210 yards against the Colts last week, with rookie speedster DeAndre Washington and beefy Latavius Murray creating a nice ‘Thunder & Lightning’ combo in the backfield. And McGloin is neither hopeless nor useless, as so many backup QB’s are. He started eight games as a rookie in 2013 and he’s been a rock solid performer in preseason action in each of the last two years. No, he’s no Derek Carr, but Oakland wouldn’t be an underdog if Carr was playing. Then again, they shouldn’t be an underdog here—the betting markets, as they often do, have overreacted to the injury. Oakland is coming to play this week – this is not a ‘struggle to focus’ game. A win here and they capture the AFC West crown and a first round bye. Jack Del Rio certainly isn’t taking his foot off the gas pedal: “Things happen in this game. It’s all about the team. It’s all about us moving on with the next opportunity and pulling together as a group of men and being unselfish and sacrificing for each other. It doesn’t change. It doesn’t change regardless of who it is. It’s about the team. It’s about us winning. That’s not in any way meant to be insensitive. You always show love and appreciation for anybody who was banged up, but the team does carry on. That’s what we do.” The Broncos are also being priced incorrectly in the betting markets right now. Last year’s Super Bowl winner is now in a meaningless Week 17 affair, already eliminated from playoff contention. Is Denver capable of digging deep and fighting till the clock reads 0:00? I wouldn’t bet on it! The Broncos have a grand total of two wins in the last two months. One came at Jacksonville, when the Jags were at their worst; a game that Denver didn’t win as much as Jacksonville lost. The other came at New Orleans – the game where the Saints scored the game winning touchdown in the closing seconds, only to see the extra point blocked and returned for 2. It’s not like Gary Kubiak’s team has played good football and come up just short. They’ve played bad football – an offensive line that can’t open holes, a QB and receivers who aren’t on the same page and a defense living off their impressive early season stats without bringing the same level of execution here into December. Wrong team favored! Big Ticket: Take the Raiders |
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12-24-16 | Bengals v. Texans -1 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 56 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#126) AJ Green is supposed to be back in the lineup for Cincinnati this week. And Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis continues to talk the talk about Cinci fighting hard over the final two weeks of what has been a lost season: “My thought is to win these last two football games with the best players we can put out there to play. That’s what we owe to everybody. This isn’t junior high school. We gotta play to win the game. That’s what it’s for. We owe it to that, we owe it to everybody. The guys out here put their neck on the line all the time.” I believe Lewis when he says that he expects his team to fight. But in this pointspread range, fighting isn’t enough – the Bengals have to WIN. And, as we saw very clearly in their home loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday, when it comes to digging down deep and finding a way to steal a tight game, Cinci isn’t very capable. The Bengals beat the Jets by one point on opening day. Since that time, they are 0-4 in games decided by less than a TD, unable to pull out any tight victories. Since that win over the Jets on opening day, Cinci has notched four other victories. Two came against the winless Browns. One came against the Eagles in the midst of a 2-9 slide. The other came against Miami, when the Dolphins were off to a 1-4 start, playing on a short week, on the road, with an inexperienced coaching staff. In other words, the Bengals really don’t have a single signature win this year, stepping up in class against a quality foe. And I don’t expect that to change, even with AJ Green expected back for Andy Dalton to throw too. It’s not like Green has been a difference maker this year, when healthy, with Cinci notching only three wins in the nine games that he played. And even with Green potentially suiting up, the Bengals are still dealing with a bevy of key injuries. In practice on Thursday, LB Vontez Burfict, offensive guard Clint Boling, TE Tyler Eifert and Eifert’s backup, Tyler Kroft were unable to suit up. Green and RB Jeremy Hill were limited. A banged up team that has been to the playoffs in each of the last five seasons, coming off another particularly frustrating loss to a divisional rival, isn’t primed to step up with a Week 16 ‘A’ game. Houston, on the other hand, isn’t losing key bodies—only RB Lamar Miller didn’t practice on Thursday. The Texans are sitting in a first place tie in the AFC South in large part due to their defense, ranked #1 overall and #2 against the pass. In the last four weeks, they’ve effectively shut down Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers; holding all three of those QB’s to 21 points or less; a stop unit that has performed admirably even without JJ Watt’s pass rushing pressure. What makes this game ‘Big Ticket’ worthy is the QB switch from Brock Osweiler to Tom Savage last week. The crowd went nuts following the switch, and based on every locker room quote I read after the game, the players on both sides of the football were every bit as overjoyed as the Houston fan base at the QB change. All this team needed all year has been adequate QB play – a QB who won’t cost them games. I think they’ve found one. Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
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12-18-16 | Raiders -3 v. Chargers | Top | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 53 h 30 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oakland (#327) The Chargers have fought the good fight, but you can stick a fork in this team right now because they are DONE! San Diego came into the season with high expectations and plenty of talent to bounce back from last year’s injury riddled 4-12 debacle. But things haven’t gone as planned, right from opening day when they blew a three TD second half lead at Arrowhead in a loss to Kansas City. It’s gotten much, much worse since then. Mike McCoy is highly unlikely to be back next year; a last place team playing for a lame duck head coach and a lame duck staff. The Chargers are likely to leave San Diego over the winter and play in LA next year after the vote to fund a new stadium got only 43% of the vote in November – expect as much support for the Raiders in this venue as we’ll see for the Chargers. San Diego is coming off back-2-back ugly losses; outplayed by Tampa Bay at home and slumping Carolina on the highway. And no team in the NFL has lost more top-flight talent to injuries than San Diego this year, a shell of the team they were supposed to be. The Chargers have no healthy running backs, with Melvin Gordon joining Danny Woodhead, Brandon Oliver and Dexter McCluster in street clothes. The cluster injuries at RB and ongoing shuffling on the offensive line have negatively affected their pass blocking, with Philip Rivers under constant pressure – he’s thrown ten interceptions and been sacked eleven times in the last four weeks. But the bigger issue here is San Diego’s problems on defense. Their DL is a mess, without run stuffers Brandon Mebane and Tenny Palepoi. Their best pass rusher, Joey Bosa, is questionable at best. And their secondary is even worse. Already without Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers, it doesn’t look likely that the Chargers will have Craig Mager either, unable to practice on Wednesday or Thursday. That leaves a VERY thin secondary and a VERY weak pass rush against an elite passing offense! The Raiders laid an egg last week after reeling off six straight wins, unable to handle the frigid conditions at Arrowhead. But prior to that, the Raiders had won every road game all year. They’ve bounced back with road wins by a TD or more following each of their two previous losses. And, after dropping from #1 to #5 in the AFC seeding with just that single defeat, it’s a step-up spot for the road favorite. Oakland is 6-1 ATS in their last seven visits to Qualcomm and they’ve won all three meetings with the Chargers over the past two seasons. And with the Raiders thoroughly devalued in the betting markets again following last week’s no-show, the cheap price point to back the superior team in the superior spot is Big Ticket worthy! Big Ticket: Take the Raiders. |
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12-11-16 | Redskins v. Eagles | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 29 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NFL Game of the YEAR: Take Washington (#123) This game cannot be priced near pick ‘em, yet that’s exactly where the betting markets are as I write this on Thursday, with Washington widely available at -1, with some pick ‘em’s till out there. There’s a world of difference between these two teams right now and moving forward. Washington was a playoff team last year, and very much in the playoff hunt this year. Philly’s a last place team in the midst of a 2-7 skid; a team that overachieved early and has been overvalued ever since. The first meeting between these two teams wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would indicate. Washington won by a TD, despite the fact that the Eagles had a kick return touchdown AND an interception return touchdown. It’s nearly impossible to cover the spread after allowing two non-offensive TD’s. The Redskins had no problem in that regard in Round 1, still winning by seven. They had a 26-12 first down edge and a 493-239 total yardage edge – mismatch stats. The rematch should be every bit as much of a mismatch, especially now that the Eagles have stopped scoring non-offensive TD’s every week, like they were doing over the first half of the campaign. Washington was a December team last year, going 4-0 SU and ATS down the stretch to win the division, including a two TD road win right here in Philadelphia. But Washington enters this December on the outside looking in at the playoff picture, following back-2-back defeats. Last week’s game at Arizona was riddled with mistakes; a poorly played game that left head coach Jay Gruden in a foul mood, and he let his team know about it in a postgame tirade. Here’s what he said to reporters afterwards: “I don’t like the way we came out. I don’t like the way they had a 16-play drive down our throat to start the game. I don’t like the way our offense answered with two penalties on the first drive and having to punt. That’s not the way we want to come out for a football game, getting ready against a good team on the road. I don’t like the fact that we had two turnovers and didn’t cause any. I don’t like the fact that we lost the game. That’s a good football team. Hats off to Coach (Bruce) Arians and the Arizona Cardinals, but I feel like we underachieved today, and that’s very frustrating.” Clearly, it’s a ‘circle the wagons’ spot for the road team, following two straight defeats to an elite (Dallas) and a playoff contender (Arizona). It’s surely worth noting that the Skins haven’t lost three in a row since Gruden’s first year on the job, when they were a 4-12 team. Washington is a little bit banged up, but they should get three key contributors back this week. Starting left tackle Trent Williams is back after serving a four game suspension. Guard/center Kory Lichtensteiger is coming off IR, ready to contribute. And pro bowl caliber tight end Jordan Reed was back in practice, likely to suit up after missing last week’s game. While everything points towards an ‘A’ level effort from the Redskins on Sunday, I’m getting a very different vibe from the slumping Eagles, just 2-7 since their hot start in September. Philly’s offense has been limited all year, and that hasn’t changed. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has hit a wall, now that opposing coordinators have plenty of film to study. Philly has scored only 24 offensive touchdowns in their first dozen games. Top RB Ryan Matthews is banged up, top WR Jordan Matthews is banged up and their offensive line is struggling in every way. Defensively, the Eagles have gone downhill over the past month and a half. They’ve notched only six sacks in the last six games, and have permitted at least two TD passes in seven of their last nine overall. Defensive end Fletcher Cox was not amused by head coach Doug Pederson’s quote that ‘Not everyone (played hard)” in their ugly loss at Cinci last week. Cox: “That’s one of the things that we talked about, sticking together. And not calling anyone out, not separating yourself. Just sticking together as a team and as an organization and then when I heard that, it kinda wowed me. That’s not stuff that we do or things that we talk about it, but obviously somebody felt that way and they’re going to say how they feel.” Cox is a real leader, both on the field and in the locker room. If he’s taking shots in the media, it’s about as big a red flag as you can find for a team headed south in a hurry. One more quote from Jay Gruden to close out this write-up: “There’s no talk about playoffs over here. We’re trying to win the next game… we’re going to do the best we can against Philadelphia. That’s all I know.” That’s the right way to approach it, coach! Big Ticket NFL GOY: Take the Redskins. |
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12-04-16 | Redskins +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 16 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Washington (#371) The betting markets have been extraordinarily reluctant to accept that the Arizona Cardinals just aren’t very good this year. My clients and I have been betting against the Cardinals since the preseason on a fairly consistent basis, cashing four winning bets against Bruce Arians squad already. Expect #5 this week. December brings a different handicapping element to the table compared to the first three months of the regular season. At this stage of the season, I’m looking to bet against veteran teams with a recent history of playoff appearances who aren’t going to the postseason this year. Arizona is near the top of that list! This team came into the season harboring Super Bowl dreams. They’ve been in the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, winning a playoff game last year. This year, they have four wins, and it’s Week 13. They are the 12th ranked team out of 16 in the NFC – even a 5-0 run to close out the regular season isn’t likely to be enough to get them into the playoffs, and they still have road games at Miami and Seattle, as well as a visit from New Orleans; all playoff contenders that they’ll have to beat. Arizona’s team chemistry has been ‘iffy’ all year. There’s a clear disconnect between management and the coaching staff. The veterans aren’t buying what Bruce Arians is selling the way they were last year. QB Carson Palmer is looking old and creaky, sacked 28 times while committing 14 turnovers over his last seven starts, playing behind an ineffective offensive line. Palmer’s yards per pass attempt has dropped from 8.7 last year to 7.0 this year and he’s already committed as many interceptions and lost more fumbles than he did in 16 games last year. Arizona’s defense was every bit as good as their offense on paper heading into the season. But that unit, too, is in serious decline. They’re banged up in the secondary with Patrick Peterson, Justin Bethel and Tyrann Mathieu all questionable on Sunday. Three of the Cardinals last four opponents have hung 30+ on them; unable to stop the run or the pass on a consistent basis. This is NOT an elite team, not even a playoff team, but those preseason expectations continue to cloud the judgement of the betting markets. Arizona’s last pointspread cover came back in mid-October, consistently overvalued by the markets. Their last win against an opponent with a winning record came back in Week 2 against Tampa! And then there’s the Redskins piece of the equation. Washington is locked in a tight battle for a playoff spot in the ultra-competitive NFC East, with a half game lead in the Wild Card race. Since their 0-2 start, the Redskins have only lost twice. They gave up a last second TD to lose by 3 at Detroit, and came up short with a late rally at Dallas last Sunday, still covering the spread in defeat. From a pointspread perspective, the betting marketplace reluctance to accept Washington as a contender is perfectly clear. The Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine game, the lone loss coming in that aforementioned three point defeat at Detroit. Kirk Cousins is better than Carson Palmer right now, and the Redskins deep and dynamic receiving corps is second to none. The betting markets are calling this a ‘flat spot’ for the Redskins, coming off their loss to Dallas on Thanksgiving, with a divisional showdown against Philly on deck next week. I couldn’t disagree more! Washington LOST to Dallas – there’s urgency here for a team that has been a consistent moneywinner on the highway dating back to their stretch run last December. Wrong team favored! Big Ticket: Take the Redskins. |
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11-20-16 | Cardinals +2.5 v. Vikings | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#459) Both of these teams have struggled in recent weeks. Only one of the two has hope moving forward. Minnesota went 5-0 to open the season prior to their bye week. It was all about turnovers and big plays on defense and special teams. They committed only one turnover through those first five weeks, while notching 12 on defense. Sam Bradford was sacked eight times in his first four starts, but the Vikings defense generated a whopping 17 sacks of their own in those four games. Since the bye week, the Vikings have collapsed. They’re not coming back. Minnesota’s offensive line has been riddled with injuries, losing another tackle, Jake Long, last week. The three healthy tackles remaining on Mike Zimmer’s roster aren’t exactly a litany of pro bowlers: TJ Clemmings, Jeremiah Sirles and Willie Beavers none of whom has any business starting an NFL game. They just reinforced the unit by signing Rashod Hill off the Jaguars practice squad. I can’t think of many teams that have improved by signing guys of the Jacksonville practice squad….. A bad offensive line has led to more problems. Sam Bradford has been sacked 16 times in the last four games, twice his sack rate from earlier in the season. Minnesota’s running game isn’t just bad – it’s historically bad, with their 2.7 yards per rush average the worst in the NFL. To put that number in perspective, the #32nd ranked rushing offense in the NFL over the last three years averaged 3.7, 3.8 and 3.9 yards per carry. Minnesota is a full YARD per carry below any of them! So what happens next? The respected coaches start fighting amongst themselves. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner flat out quit, midseason. Kicker Blair Walsh fell apart, costing the Vikings at least one win, potentially two. And Minnesota’s once elite defense – a defense that carried them last year and carried them to the 5-0 mark to open this season – has started to wear down. Three of the Vikings last four foes have rushed for 100+ against them. Three of their last four foes have passed for 200+ against them. With the game on the line in the fourth quarter or overtime, the Vikings gave up game winning drives to Detroit and Washington in the last two weeks. Hell, this defense made Jay Cutler look decent on Monday Night Football. The wheels have fallen off, and Minnesota is a clear ‘bet-against’ team moving forward. Arizona is not a ‘bet-against’ team. The markets seem mad at the Cardinals for repeatedly failing to cover as a favorite this year. Bruce Arians squad lost outright to the Patriots, Bills and Rams as chalk, laying -6 or higher in all three games. ‘Zona couldn’t cover against the Seahawks in a game where their defense didn’t allow a touchdown. Last week, coming off their bye, facing the lowly 49ers, ‘Zona was in a ‘life and death’ battle just to win the game against a bottom feeder that had lost each of their seven previous games by double digit margins. None of that matters here, because the Cardinals aren’t chalk in this game – they’re underdogs! Sure, they were flat and sluggish against San Fran. Who cares? That was last week. They were playing the worst team in the league, a team they had blown out a month earlier. And they won the game, keeping their very real playoff hopes alive, just a game out of the Wild Card and very much in contention in the NFC North. There’s no snow expected on gameday, and this Cardinals team has been pretty darn good in bad weather settings in recent years, including last year’s outright upset win at Seattle. Wrong team favored here! Take the Cardinals. |
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11-13-16 | Bears -1.5 v. Bucs | Top | 10-36 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Chicago (#265) There’s a world of difference between these two teams right now, even though the Bucs have the better record of these two teams heading into Week 11. Let me start with the anti-Tampa piece of the equation. The Bucs beat the Falcons on opening day. Since that time, Tampa has two wins. One came at San Francisco, against the single worst team in the NFL (yes, my power ratings have the 49ers below Cleveland). The other came at Carolina, in a game where they were +4 in turnovers against a backup quarterback on a slumping team. Even with that turnover margin, they only won the game by three points. The Bucs have been outgained by 0.9 yards per play this year. They haven’t been able to run the football at all since Doug Martin and Jaquizz Rodgers got hurt, and while Martin is back in practice this week he’s questionable at best to suit up on Sunday. QB Jameis Winston is dealing with a lingering knee injury; not the running threat he was last year. Top receiver Mike Evans has been in concussion protocol all week, no sure thing to suit up. This offense isn’t primed to light up scoreboards, especially with center Joe Hawley likely to miss with a knee injury and guard Kevin Pamphile expected to miss. The Bucs defense is even worse, likely to be without key nose tackle Clinton McDonald this week. They’ve been consistently torched by every decent offense they’ve faced all year, unable to stop the run or the pass. And when we add into the mix Tampa’s homefield advantage – or more specifically the lack thereof – the price looks very cheap to fade this struggling squad. Let’s not forget that Tampa is 0-4 SU and ATS at home this year after going 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS at Raymond James Stadium in 2014 and 2015 combined. Yet a homefield edge continues to get priced into the line….. If you read the sports pages out of Chicago this week, they were filled with positive quotes for a 2-6 team that went into the bye week with a solid win and expects to come out of the bye week with another one. Chicago got MUCH healthier off the bye, with offensive linemen Josh Sitton and Kyle Long primed to suit up on Sunday along with WR Eddie Royal, RB Jeremy Langford, LB Pernell McPhee and several other key defenders. Jay Cutler: “We're getting the full deck back together again. which is going to make it easier for the playcallers and guys making plays for us." John Fox: "I think Jay will get the biggest benefit because this is his second (straight) start. He missed five games, and he'd be the first to tell you that there's a little rust there.” Eddie Royal: "You look around and you see so many good players, it's like, why not win out? You've got to win the first one, but we believe in each other so much that we know that we can turn this thing around." All of a sudden, the NFC North is wide open, with both Green Bay and Minnesota losing in back-2-back weeks. There’s hope and there’s life in Chicago. The Bears won right here in Tampa last year, outgaining the Bucs by more than 100 yards. Chicago beat Tampa at Soldier Field the year before. Expect the Bears to hit the Bucs Trifecta, notching their third victory against Tampa over the last three seasons in a game that is far more of a mismatch than this short pointspread would indicate. Big Ticket: Take the Bears. |
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10-23-16 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-6 | Win | 100 | 102 h 1 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle (#475) The betting markets know that Seattle is better than Arizona, hence the Cardinals being priced at less than a field goal favorites at home. And frankly, I’m not convinced that Arizona should be favored in this game at all! The Cardinals have three wins this year. They beat a 2-3 Tampa team that isn’t 1-4 only because backup QB Derek Anderson was awful in a game that Cam Newton would have won for Carolina. They beat the 1-5 49ers. And they beat the 1-5 Jets. That’s three VERY bad teams. And that’s it. When the Cardinals have tried to step up in class even a little bit, it hasn’t been pretty. The Patriots beat them SU on this field without Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski, among others. The Bills blew them out. The Rams beat them up, also on this field. In fact, for a supposedly ‘strong’ homefield edge, Arizona is 3-8 ATS in their last eleven home games, losing half of the ATS defeats in SU fashion as well. Arizona has scored a grand total of seven first quarter points all year, getting off to slow starts week after week. Seattle is not a team that you want to play from behind against. Carson Palmer has declined noticeably and markedly from his excellent campaign last year. Against the Jets last week, Palmer didn’t complete a pass of longer than 14 yards. For the season, his QB rating is down more than 20 points from last year and his yards-per-pass is down more than a full yard. It’s worth noting that Palmer suffered a hamstring strain on Monday Night and that he got a ‘veteran’s’ day off on a short week after playing on Monday Night, never a positive expectation situation. It’s also worth noting how much Palmer has struggled against the Seahawks in recent years, with more INT’s than TD’s against his divisional rival since arriving in Arizona at the start of the 2013 campaign. In the last ten meetings between these two teams, Arizona has scored more than 22 points only once. In fact, Seattle beat the Cardinals by 30 on this field last year. They beat Arizona by 29 on this field the previous season and by a TD on this field the year before that, part of a 5-2 SU and ATS run against the Cards since 2012. Pete Carroll has had Bruce Arians number, and I don’t think that changed this past offseason. Russell Wilson trumps Carson Palmer at this stage of their collective careers, and it’s not even that close. Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham might well be the two best receivers on the field. Seattle’s offensive line improved by leaps and bounds following their bye week, with legendary OL guru Tom Cable working his magic. Wilson suffered only one sack without a single turnover last week in the win over Atlanta. But I LOVE the fact that the Seahawks defense got torched by Matt Ryan last week in their post-bye game; a situation that moves this game into Big Ticket territory. Make no mistake about it – this defense is still truly elite, and you can be sure they’re focused this week after last Sunday’s second half debacle. Pro Bowler Kam Chancellor – the defensive play caller on the field – was out last week and it showed. He’s expected back this week, as is defensive ends Michael Bennett and Frank Clark. I expect that trio to have an impact here. We haven’t seen the Seahawks in primetime yet this year. Expect the superior team to shine when the lights are shining bright. Big Ticket: Take the Seahawks. |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs +1 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 98 h 45 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Kansas City (#269) Oakland is 4-1. To the casual observer, the Raiders are clearly improved from any recent version, a ‘bet-on’ team’ moving forward. I disagree, rather strongly. The Raiders are 4-1 because they’ve won four coin-flip games, not because they’ve dominated anybody. The beat the Saints on a last second two point conversion. They beat the Titans despite getting outgained only thanks to a fourth down incompletion from the Raiders 12 yard line. They beat the Ravens thanks to a missed two point try, outgained on the ground and through the air. Then last week they beat the Chargers because San Diego couldn’t execute their last second field goal try. Oakland has made a handful of key plays, true, but don’t be fooled into thinking that Oakland is anything but a mediocre squad right now. That’s particularly true on the defensive side of the football. The Raiders rank dead last in the NFL, allowing a whopping 7.0 yards per play, dead last in the NFL by a wide margin. The league average is 5.5 yards per play allowed, and the #31 team in the NFL (Indy) is a full half yard better per play then the Raiders have been. For a ‘fat and happy’ team off three straight last minute wins, those continuing defensive woes are a major concern moving forward, especially for a team that is 7-23 ATS in their last 30 tries as favorites, including an 0-4 ATS mark as home favorites in the Jack Del Rio era. KC has dominated this series, winning five of the last six meetings against Oakland, including a pair of blowouts by two TD’s or more on this field. And KC is truly in a ‘bet-on’ spot here. They are coming off their worst loss in the Andy Reid era – an embarrassing national TV 43-14 blowout at Pittsburgh. They had a bye last week, and my numbers show Andy Reid with a 15-2 SU record following a bye during his tenures with the Eagles and Chiefs. Now that’s a track record of support! KC is MUCH healthier off the bye, particularly on the defensive side of the football, where they have struggled to generate a pass rush early. They’ll have a healthy Jamaal Charles running the football her, and we can expect a steady diet of tough, between-the-tackles running here; something the Raiders are ill equipped to stop. KC is the better team, in the better spot, still priced as a short underdog as I post this writeup. Catching points, the Chiefs are worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager. Big Ticket: Take Kansas City. |
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10-02-16 | Panthers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 33-48 | Loss | -113 | 95 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Carolina (#259) Three key factors are in play for me in this ballgame. First, Carolina is elite. Second, Carolina is coming off a bad loss. Three, Atlanta has been feasting on the weak. Laying only a field goal on the road, the Panthers are bargain priced this week! Let me start with Item 1; Carolina is elite. I’ve seen numerous power ratings that rank the Panthers as a second tier team following their 1-2 start, ranked in the 8th to 12th best team in the league range. My power ratings have Carolina ranked #1 (at least until Tom Brady gets back on the field) and it’s not really that close. The defending NFC champs – a 15-1 team last year -- are still loaded on both sides of the football, yet they’re looking up at the Falcons in the standings. This team arguably has the best offense in the league; their defense is allowing only 4.7 yards per play - only Seattle, Denver, Minnesota and Baltimore (weak schedule) are better. The markets are selling this team short! Kelvin Benjamin caught 13 passes for 199 yards and 3 TD’s in the first two weeks of the season. In last week’s loss to the Vikings, he was held without a catch. Cam Newton, following the loss: “That can’t happen. That can’t happen. And if I’m speaking for it, that won’t happen again. He’s too good of a player.” It’s no shock that Carolina’s offense didn’t work against Minnesota – nobody’s offense works against Minnesota – just ask Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Then look what Rodgers and the Green Bay offense did the week AFTER facing the Vikings when taking a step down in defensive class against Detroit – they didn’t punt before halftime, scoring 31 points in 30 minutes. The difference between the Vikings defense (Top 5 in the NFL, by every metric) and the Falcons defense (Bottom 5 in the NFL) is enormous. Atlanta didn’t stop Jameis Winston in Week 1 or Derek Carr in Week 2, and Drew Brees marched the Saints offense up and down the field in Week 3, only punting twice all game. A hungry, motivated Cam Newton throwing to Benjamin, Greg Olson, Devin Funchess, Ted Ginn, Corey Brown and Fozzy Whitaker out of the backfield is a recipe the Falcons have no counter for. So my only legitimate question here is whether the Falcons can trade points with Carolina, because I’m pretty confident that the Panthers offense is going to put up points in bunches here. Matt Ryan is off to the best start of his career, averaging a whopping 9.4 yards per pass attempt with an NFL best 119.0 QB rating. But look at the three defenses he’s faced! Tampa Bay has allowed 40 and 37 points in their other two games NOT against Atlanta. New Orleans is ranked dead last in the NFL in just about every defensive category. And the categories that the Saints aren’t last in, the Raiders are! This offense has been feasting on the weak. That’s not gonna happen this week. A ‘fat and happy’ Falcons squad is primed to get their doors blown off here by a ‘thin and hungry’ Panthers team on Sunday. It’s worth noting that following their only three regular season losses since November 2014, the Panthers have bounced back with wins by 31, 28 and 19 points……….Big Ticket: Take Carolina. |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs -5 | Top | 37-32 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 15 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Tampa Bay (#480) I want Tampa off an ugly loss, like the 40-7 defeat they suffered at Arizona last Sunday. Every quote coming out of the locker room indicates max focus for the Bucs this week. Head coach Dirk Koetter: “It is a humbling league. We got humbled …. I expect and want to see fantastic resiliency. When you just look around the league, that’s sort of how the NFL is. The Cardinals had a disappointing [23-21] loss [last week], they came back and got after us pretty good [Sunday]. Look at the Rams, who we play this week. The Rams lost 28-0 on their opener to the 49ers. They come back [and get a] huge [9-3] win against Seattle [on Sunday]." Jameis Winston, following his four interception effort: “We played one of the best defenses in the league. but all those interceptions are on me." Wide receiver Cecil Shorts, talking about a bad practice session last Wednesday: “Good teams don't have bad practices ... good teams don't have many bad practices. You [have to] come in ready to go each and every day. It obviously won't be great every time, but you have to put the work in and you have to figure out a way to have a good practice. Now we have are going to put our heads[s] down and we are going to keep moving forward.” Linebacker Lavonte David: “We probably were on our high horse coming off of our first win, coming into Wednesday thinking we're big and bad -- this is a humbling league. Coming off a win and coming back to get our butts kicked 40-7 -- it's a humbling league. Hopefully we learn from that." And I want to bet against LA coming off a huge win over division rival Seattle, especially in this ‘divisional sandwich’ spot – coming off the 49ers and Seahawks, with a matchup with Arizona on deck. It’s worth noting that this will be the FIRST time that the Rams have travelled from the West Coast to play an East Coast game since moving from St Louis. I expect there to be somewhat of an adjustment process, to put it mildly. And it’s also worth noting that after beating the Seahawks three times in the last four meetings, Jeff Fisher’s squad has proceeded to lose their next game each time – blowouts at KC and Washington and a loss as favorites against the Niners last year. And make no mistake about it. Tampa is a playoff contender. LA is a ‘last place’ contender. The Rams haven’t scored an offensive TD in two weeks, and QB Case Keenum is just keeping the seat warm for #1 pick Jared Goff. Keenum is ranked #33 out of the 33 QB’s to start a game this year. The other QB’s have a rating between 121 and 72. Keenum is at 57, 15 points behind the #32 ranked QB. If (when) the Rams fall behind, they’ll have a hard time rallying back, as we saw very clearly in their loss at San Fran to open the season. Big Ticket: Take the Buccaneers |
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09-18-16 | Ravens -6.5 v. Browns | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 4 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Baltimore (#267) One of my top strategies for beating early season NFL is to bet against the very worst teams, before the markets recognize how weak they actually are. And the Cleveland Browns legitimately have a chance to be historically weak in 2016; a team worth fading at every reasonable opportunity. With this spread still holding at less than a touchdown, it’s worthy of Big Ticket status. There’s no mistaking what Cleveland did this past offseason. They mortgaged the present to build for the future. Every veteran that they could cut, they cut. They let all of their key free agents leave, on both sides of the ball. That trend continued in training camp – jettisoning salary, going with youth. 15 rookies made the Browns opening day roster. Cleveland was non-competitive in every preseason game, and I do mean non-competitive – their first stringers were dominated every week. My #28 ranked NFL team is the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia just blew out the Browns last week behind a rookie quarterback who missed the final three weeks of preseason with a rib injury. Joe Flacco is primed to eat this defense for breakfast; a defense that did not force a turnover last week (and won’t be forcing many this season). The Browns had a fighting chance to be competitive in some games with RG3 behind center. Griffin won the starting job early, and got all the first team reps in August. His teammates appeared to be buying in to what RG3 was saying and doing. Now he’s out for the season. The betting markets are looking at veteran backup Josh McCown and seeing no difference between him and RG3. If you’ve been paying attention to what’s been going on in Cleveland, you already know that there IS a difference – McCown is a legitimate downgrade. Don’t think for a minute that Baltimore won’t take Josh McCown seriously. He faced them twice last year, and lit them up both times (with a MUCH better receiving corps and OL than he has this year, against a MUCH weaker Ravens defense littered with injuries in 2015). Here’s what John Harbaugh had to say: “He’s been on fire against us. He’s thrown the ball up in the air and the guy catches it between his feet for a touchdown last year. I just remember this guy having no conscious, just throwing the ball in there and completing passes against us. We have a lot of respect for him.” Read between the lines there and you can see a little bit of extra enthusiasm for shutting Josh McCown down. The Ravens offense didn’t click last week, which works in our favor in two ways. First, the markets aren’t particularly enamored with a team that only reached the red zone one time (and settled for a field goal) in Week 1, keeping this spread in a very reasonable range. Second, the Ravens have something to prove here on offense, looking to take out some aggression on a divisional foe; and connect on a handful more of those big play TD’s which Mike Wallace had last week. The last ‘historically bad’ NFL team was the 2008 Detroit Lions Detroit opened the season 0-4 SU and ATS, losing every game by 13 points or more. Just sayin’…… Expect a blowout. Big Ticket: Take the Ravens. |
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09-11-16 | Bengals v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 95 h 42 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the New York J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets (#460) Last year, Cinci went 12-4 SU, and were strong moneywinners in every role; 12-3-1 ATS. But there are a whole host of reasons to expect a significant decline in 2016. Let’s start with the fact that the Bengals had the third best turnover margin in the NFL last year, +11. Cinci’s defense isn’t built to force turnovers, and their best previous turnover margin in the last eight years of the Lewis era was a +4. We can and should expect regression. But the real guy we should expect regression from is the Red Rifle himself, QB Andy Dalton. Dalton is coming off thumb surgery following a season in which he had a QB rating of 106.3, 2nd in the NFL. His previous career high was 88.8. Do you think Dalton is the second best QB in the NFL? Me neither! Dalton threw at least 16 interceptions in each of his first three seasons as the starter. Last year, that dropped to only seven. To make matters worse for Dalton, he’s lost a ton of talent and brains surrounding him! Last year’s success was largely due to two factors – an elite and deep group of receivers as well as a brilliantly designed offense under coordinator Hue Jackson. Well, the deep receiving corps is gone, with Mohammed Sanu and Marvin Jones both getting paid like #1 WR’s in new cities. Expecting pedestrian journeyman Brandon LaFell and rookie Tyler Boyd to fill those shoes is a bit much. And don’t forget that TE Tyler Eifert and his 13 TD catches last year has not recovered from offseason surgery and is not ready for opening day. Marvin Lewis has been losing key assistants. Elite offensive coordinator Hue Jackson got the Cleveland Browns head coaching gig. New offensive coordinator Ken Zampese was promoted from within, but he’s a first time coordinator with BIG shoes to fill. I’m not convinced he can do it. Three key defensive assistants left town as well, including Vance Joseph, now the defensive coordinator in Miami. The Bengals finished #2 in the NFL in points allowed last year. But the offseason hasn’t been pretty for this stop unit either. They lost their interception leader, Reggie Nelson, to the Raiders in free agency. Starting CB Leon Hall signed with the Giants. LB AJ Hawk is gone after making 11 starts last year. Valuable defensive end Wallace Gilberry left as well, as did LB Emmanuel Lamur. This team is primed for decline, plain and simple. The Jets are not. Much of the lack of betting market support for New York this past offseason stemmed from their much tougher strength of schedule in 2016; a dramatic upgrade from last year. But from a pure talent standpoint, the Jets are every bit as good as last year’s ten win team, if not better. And their brutal opening slate - -Buffalo, KC, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Arizona in their next five games, four of them on the road – only increases their sense of urgency here in Week 1. All the offseason turmoil in New York melted away as soon as respected locker room leader Ryan Fitzpatrick was re-signed at QB. Todd Bowles went 3-0 ATS as an underdog last year, including outright upsets over the Patriots and Colts. And the Jets were ready to play in Week 1, winning by three TD’s on opening day; in sharp contrast with a Cinci team that is just 3-5 SU in their last eight lid-lifters under Lewis. I don’t think this line gets to +3, but even at +2.5, the Jets are worthy of a Big Ticket wager in a game I expect them to win. Big Ticket: Take the Jets |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots -5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 53 h 7 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take New England (#302) The Chiefs are the hottest team in the NFL, riding an eleven game winning streak into Foxboro on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Patriots slumped down the stretch, losing two straight (with a chance to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs) and four of their last six. That’s giving us an extremely cheap pointspread to back the superior team, rested and ready at home on Saturday; a wager worthy of Big Ticket status. These two teams played on Monday Night Football in Arrowhead last year, one of the ugliest losses of the entire Bill Belichick era for New England. KC mauled the Patriots on both sides of the line of scrimmage in a dominating 41-14 victory, gaining more than 200 yards on the ground and through the air. Tom Brady threw a pair of interceptions before getting benched in the fourth quarter, while Alex Smith picked apart the Patriots secondary to the tune of 20-26 passes for 248 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover. That game transformed the Patriots trajectory. The Pats didn’t allow 200 rushing yards in any game the rest of the way, while winning 13 of their last 14 meaningful games on their way to a Super Bowl title. And it’s a loss they still remember well, as evidenced by numerous quotes from coaches and players in the locker room over the last few days. The Pats are offering the appropriate platitudes, but their focus level for this particular opponent on this particular week is ‘off the charts’ good. Before I go any further, there’s a question that must be asked. How good have the Chiefs actually been during this 11-0 run? Good enough to beat the weak, that’s for sure! During this run the Chiefs have faced one bottom feeder after the next. Their last seven regular season games came against the Chargers (twice), the Raiders (twice), Cleveland, Baltimore and Buffalo. They’ve beaten Brian Hoyer, Derek Carr, Johnny Manziel and Jimmy Clausen over the last month. That’s not exactly a tough slate of opposing teams or opposing quarterbacks. The Chiefs have three wins since opening day against playoff opponents. One came against Pittsburgh with third string QB Landry Jones behind center for the Steelers. One came against Denver, in the game where Peyton Manning threw four early interceptions and then was benched for the next two months due to injury. The third came against Houston last week with Brian Hoyer making his first career playoff start behind a depleted offensive line. There’s not one team that the Chiefs have beaten during this entire winning streak that’s even remotely comparable to a rested, focused Patriots squad coming off a bye and playing at home in January. Things get even worse for KC when we start to look at the injury situation for both squads. KC’s defensive line is banged up. Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Dee Ford are all less than 100% heading into their second straight road playoff game. The Chiefs top deep threat, WR Jeremy Maclin, suffered a high ankle sprain in the win over Houston. Even if Maclin suits up in Foxboro, he’s not likely to be his explosive self. KC also lost starting offensive lineman Laurent Duvernay-Tardif to a concussion, joining starting center Mitch Morse in concussion protocol moving forward. If that duo doesn’t suit up this weekend, it’ll be a major loss for the Chiefs offense. While KC is battling injuries, the Patriots are getting much healthier. New England will get back WR Julian Edelman following a nine week absence; a huge difference maker for Tom Brady. LB Donta’ Hightower is expected to suit up, as is elite offensive lineman Sebastian Vollmer. All three guys are what I would call ‘impact players’, and their return to the field makes the Pats a better team than the one we saw losing to the Jets and Dolphins over the final two weeks of the regular season. But the real kicker here is the turnover situation. Facing one weakling after the next, the Chiefs have gone a remarkable +22 in turnovers during their eleven game winning streak. But the Patriots don’t turn the ball over; committing an NFL low 14 turnovers all season. In the four games this season where KC didn’t win the turnover battle, they went 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS, and this is not a game where they can be expected to win that battle. KC might be the ‘Flavor of the Week’ for pundits and talking heads on TV; but the Pats are the class in this matchup! Big Ticket: Take the Patriots. |
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01-10-16 | Packers v. Redskins -1 | Top | 35-18 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 58 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NFL Playoff Game of the Year: Take Washington (#108) In Week 16, my clients and I cashed in betting on Arizona against Green Bay, a 38-8 blowout that was every bit as non-competitive as the final score would indicate. In Week 17, my clients and I cashed a Big Ticket betting against these same Packers. Minnesota’s M.O. all year was that they were good enough to beat bad teams, but not good enough to beat any good ones. And the Vikings were awful --particularly on offense -- for extended stretches against the Packers on Sunday Night. They turned the ball over during crunch time and made mistake after mistake with the game on the line. It didn’t matter – Green Bay still wasn’t good enough to beat them, at home. Let’s not forget that the Vikings only previous win all year against an opponent with a winning record came against the Chiefs – when KC was off to a 1-5 start. The fact that they knocked off Green Bay in a pressure packed game at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night speaks volumes about where the Packers are right now. The betting markets are looking at Green Bay as a composite of their full season results/stats, as well as their historical success in recent playoff appearances – ‘proven playoff performers’. And the betting markets are thoroughly devaluing a Redskins team that only faced two playoff teams all year – New England and Carolina – suffering blowout losses in both of those games. The Packers are the ‘class’; the Redskins the ‘upstarts’. That’s why this pointspread is hovering in the pick ‘em/-1 range. I think that’s a major mistake. BOTH of these teams are being power rated incorrectly, offering TREMENDOUS value with the ‘Skins in a game that I expect them to win. Let me start with the anti-Packers piece of the equation. This is not a confident team; a well-oiled machine. Green Bay is 4-6 SU in their last ten games. And even the four wins aren’t impressive. They were badly outplayed by the Lions, needing a miracle penalty followed by a miracle Hail Mary to steal that victory. They got Dallas one week after the Cowboys had lost Tony Romo again, a downtrodden team at the tail end of a disappointing campaign. Their ten point win at Oakland was completely fraudulent. Green Bay gained only 4.2 yards per play in that contest; yet another game where their running game didn’t work and where Aaron Rodgers didn’t have open receivers to throw to downfield. The Packers scored only one touchdown in five red zone tries against an iffy Raiders defense. Green Bay’s only legitimately ‘good’ game since Week 6 came when they beat the aforementioned Vikings; a team that struggled mightily to step up in class all year. If you throw out those early season stats, when the Packers were relatively healthy and playing at a very different level than they are now, you’ll see a team that has been consistently outgained and outplayed for the better part of the last three months! It gets worse. We’ve seen the Packers lose multiple games this year because their subpar receiving corps couldn’t get open in the red zone late in the game. That happened in the loss to the Bears on Thanksgiving and in the loss to Minnesota on Sunday Night. Both times, they had four shots at the end zone from a late game ‘goal-to-go’ situation. Both times, Aaron Rodgers couldn’t find an open receiver on play after play. Rodgers season long stats show an impressive 31-8 TD-INT ratio. They’ll also show his 6.7 yards per pass attempt average, ranked #30 out of NFL QB’s this season and the only time in his entire career that he’s dipped below 7.5 ypp. Last year, he averaged 8.4 yards per attempt. Green Bay has already switched play callers. They’ve already tried to establish their running game to set up the pass. None of it has worked, a team mired in a real offensive funk. Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy are not on the same page when it comes to the gameplanning or the playcalling, each taking veiled shots at the other through the media. Both have complained that the team lacks an ‘identity’ on offense, thanks to all the shifting gameplans. And with Green Bay’s offensive line in shambles due to injuries – Rodgers has taken 13 sacks in the last two weeks alone – things aren’t likely to get any better before their season mercifully ends on Sunday Night in DC. Green Bay is still being priced like an elite contender – the Aaron Rodgers factor, coupled with their overall 10-6 record. But the Packers are a long, long way from ‘elite’ status right now. The exact opposite is true for the Redskins. Yes, Washington’s season long numbers are mediocre at best. Yes, their pass defense is spotty at times. Yes, they’ve failed to beat a single playoff team all year (although there’s no shame in losing to the Pats and Panthers, both on the road, and both when those teams were absolutely clicking on all cylinders). A month ago, after losing to Dallas on Monday Night Football, this team was in position to finish in last place, not first. But, like Green Bay, Washington’s full season stats are very misleading, because they factor in early season results that have very little to do with who the Redskins are today. Washington has now won five of their last six, the lone loss coming via a last second field goal. Every quote coming out of the Redskins locker room talks about how this team has come together, how they like each other, how much better they are now than they were three months ago. These guys like each other; playing hard for each other. Multiple PLAYER quotes that I’ve read over the last month are using the same word over and over: a ‘special’ team, a ‘special’ group. Kirk Cousins finished the regular season ranked #6 in QBR, well ahead of #15 Aaron Rodgers. Washington has the three most dangerous receivers on the field in this matchup, with DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon. Cousins put together a 19-2 TD-INT ratio over the back half of the season. This offense has hung 34+ in three straight games, and they’re entering the postseason oozing confidence on a field where they went 6-2 SU and ATS this year; one of those losses coming on a punt return TD on opening day. Washington is the superior team –period. The markets are giving us a ‘bargain basement price’ to support them, worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager. Big Ticket: Take the Redskins. |
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01-03-16 | Vikings +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 82 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Minnesota (#325) The Minnesota Vikings have lost every single ‘step up in class’ game they’ve played all year. Their only wins against an opponent with a winning record came against the Chiefs – when KC was off to a 1-5 start – and the Falcons, when Atlanta was in the midst of their 1-8 midseason slide. That being said, Green Bay is no ‘step-up’ in class for Minnesota right now. In fact, the Packers might be a step down in class…. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up betting against Green Bay in their blowout loss at Arizona last week. “Meanwhile, the Packers remain an OVERVALUED commodity following their fraudulent win and cover at Oakland last Sunday. Green Bay gained only 4.2 yards per play in that contest; yet another contest where their running game didn’t work and where Aaron Rodgers didn’t have open receivers to throw to downfield. The Packers scored only one touchdown in five red zone tries, and that’s not likely to get much better here with key offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Sam Shields both banged up. This team has a grand total of one win since Week 3 against an opponent with a winning record.” The Packers gained 2.9 yards per play in that loss at Arizona. Aaron Rodgers took nine sacks. Rodgers injury depleted offensive line isn’t going to get much better this week, with all five starters nursing injuries. That’s bad news for a team that hasn’t been able to run the football consistently at any point this season. And it’s particularly bad news given the Packers depleted receiving corps; WR’s that just can’t get open against stronger secondaries. Head coach Mike McCarthy has quite a wish list this week, after taking heat for his play calling in the loss to Arizona: “We’ve got to get open quicker, we’ve got to beat man-to-man coverage, we’ve got to quit worrying about plays (called). We just need to focus on execution.” Minnesota’s defense is every bit as good or better than that of the Cardinals; a dominant unit poised to make amends for their poor performance when these two teams met in November. But the real improvement from the Vikings during their current 3-0 ATS run since their ugly home loss to Seattle has been on the offensive side of the football. Teddy Bridgewater is growing up before our eyes, throwing for six TD’s without an interception in the last three games, while completing better than 70% of his passes. Adrian Peterson is on the verge of another rushing title, showing remarkable explosiveness from an RB on the wrong side of 30. The Vikes have scored 87 points in their last two games alone, peaking while the Packers are collapsing. Minnesota is the better team right now, plain and simple. Catching more than a field goal with Mike Zimmer’s squad is a play truly worthy of Big Ticket status; a line based more on past reputation than current reality. Big Ticket: Take Minnesota. |
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12-20-15 | Cardinals -3 v. Eagles | Top | 40-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#317) Arizona is sitting at 11-2, but the Cardinals haven’t clinched ANYTHING meaningful yet, other than assuring themselves of a playoff spot – not their division, not a first round bye. They play Green Bay and Seattle in Week 16 and 17 – no team in the league faces two tougher closeout games. To say that this is a VERY important game for the superior team is something of an understatement, even though Chip Kelly’s squad is facing another ‘must win’ game in the race for the dismal NFC East title. And that’s why this scheduling situation is so key for the Cardinals this week. After beating the Vikings (but not covering) on Thursday Night, head coach Bruce Arians gave his team the weekend off; a real rarity at this stage of the campaign. For a team that has stayed fairly healthy all year, the extra rest time can only be considered a major benefit here for the road favorite. Teams that don’t face the Eagles very often are at a real disadvantage trying to prep for Chip Kelly’s uptempo attack on a normal week. Their four non-divisional wins this year – the Jets, Saints, Pats and Bills – all came against teams that had yet to face the Eagles in a regular season game during the Chip Kelly era. But Arizona beat Philly last year and they faced Philly here in Philadelphia the previous season as well. For a non-divisional opponent, the Cardinals know the Eagles extremely well and familiarity in this case is a very good thing! The Cardinals already have five road wins by six points or more, three of them coming by two TD’s or more; consistently playing good football in hostile road environments. They’ve been consistent moneywinners in each of Arians first three years on the job. Arizona’s statistical profile is elite, with an NFL best +1.1 yards per play average for the season. Carson Palmer is enjoying an MVP caliber season, and Arians isn’t shy about airing it out, leading to a bevy of quick strike, big play TD’s; real momentum killers for their opponent. Given Philly’s struggles against the deep ball this year, ‘Zona’s big play capability gives them a real chance to extend the lead or to rally from behind, should they need to! We’re getting excellent value here with the Cardinals as well, despite a pointspread that has held at -3.5 all week (it could drop to -3 on Sunday before kickoff; worth watching for). ‘Zona has only covered one pointspread in the last month, taking much of the ‘steam’ off them following their early season ATS success. Meanwhile, Philly is a good notch or two overvalued after beating the Patriots and Bills in their last two games; both fraudulent victories. Philly was badly outplayed at New England, but scored on a blocked punt TD, a punt return TD and a 99 yard interception return TD. That turned what should have been a double digit loss into a SU and ATS victory. The Eagles offense gained only 4.3 yards per play, managing only 248 total yards compared to 427 for the Pats. Last week’s win was just as fraudulent. The Bills got whistled for a whopping 15 penalties, killing their momentum again and again. The Eagles were out-yarded by 1.2 yards per play, outgained on the ground and through the air. They blew a double digit second half lead, but managed one late drive for the game winning field goal, despite another mediocre effort from Sam Bradford behind center. Arizona is the contender here, while Philly is the overvalued pretender. The extra time off and ‘Zona’s familiarity (and success) against Kelly’s schemes make the Cardinals worthy of a Big Ticket wager on Sunday Night. Take the Cardinals. |
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12-14-15 | Giants -1 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 44 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the New York Giants (#133) The Miami Dolphins have been in free-fall for the better part of the last two months. Yes, Miami is coming off a win, knocking off Baltimore last week. It wasn’t pretty. Miami got a TD on a pick six from Matt Schaub, something Schaub seems to do on a weekly basis. Their other TD came on a one play drive; a 38 yard TD pass following another Schaub interception. On the Dolphins remaining drives, they had eight punts and a fumble. This might not be a huge deal on a normal week. But last week wasn’t a normal week for Miami. Interim head coach Dan Campbell fired his former boss, offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. QB Ryan Tannehill then spent the entire week talking about how much he loved the new, simplified offense that gave him much more latitude calling audibles. Tannehill then proceeded to go 9-19 for 86 yards. The Dolphins offense gained eight first downs all day, outgained by more than 150 yards by one of the very worst offenses in the NFL. That wasn’t the only fraudulent Dolphins win of late. Their only other victory in the last seven games – since that initial 2-0 outburst after Joe Philbin got fired – came at Philly when the Eagles were slumping. The Dolphins managed to win that game only because a deflected pass turned into a TD catch AND Mark Sanchez threw an interception in the end zone in a position where a field goal would have won the game, a truly horrific decision from a bottom tier QB. It’s surely worth noting that Philly had 29 first downs compared to only 15 for Miami in that game, and the Eagles outgained the ‘Fins by just shy of 150 yards! Those two wins are the only things separating the Dolphins from an 0-7 SU run. And those wins have, in theory, kept Miami alive enough in the playoff picture to price them competitively right here. Had the Dolphins entered this game on an 0-7 run, the Giants would surely be laying more than a field goal here. It’s surely worth noting that this is Miami’s first and only sellout of the year….in large part because all the Giants fans living in south Florida have been gobbling up the extra tickets. While it’s Miami’s home field (where they’ve lost by double digits to the Bills, Jets and Cowboys already this year), this is much more like a neutral site crowd. Miami isn’t the only team with misleading results. The Giants have blown a bevy of fourth quarter leads this year; a team that could easily be 9-3 or 10-2 right now, instead of 5-7. The G-men suffered a brutal loss in OT against the Jets last week, their third straight defeat (and sixth loss of the year) by less than a touchdown. Sure, clock management has been an issue, as has some dicey Eli Manning decision making. But the bottom line for this bettor is that the Giants are better than their record would indicate, while the Dolphins are worse. The Giants weren’t demoralized following last week’s frustrating loss. The team still respects Tom Coughlin – unlike the situation in Miami, New York still has positive chemistry emanating from their locker room, and strong leadership on the field. Their offensive line is getting healthier; they have an ample supply of skill position talent and their defense has been adept at creating turnovers all year. I’m more than willing to take advantage of the cheap price being offered to support New York on Monday Night with a Big Ticket sized wager. Big Ticket: Take the Giants. |
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12-06-15 | Seahawks v. Vikings | Top | 38-7 | Loss | -103 | 93 h 44 m | Show |
Big Ticket: One & Only NFL Game of the Year: Take Minnesota (#364) The mainstream narrative is dead wrong about both of these teams. That offers tremendous value to back the Vikings in a major statement game for the home team; a wager worthy of ‘Big Ticket: NFL Game of the Year’ status. Seattle has now won four of their last five, solidifying their hold on a Wild Card spot in the NFC Playoff chase. But make no mistake about it – the Seahawks are not what they were last year, or the year before – not even close. Three of those four recent victories came against bottom feeders. They knocked off 3-8 San Francisco twice and eked out a one point win against the 3-8 Cowboys with Matt Cassel behind center for Dallas. Russell Wilson was brilliant in the Seahawks win and cover against the Steelers last week. Of course, Pittsburgh was -4 in turnovers in that game, and they were still very much in position to win SU or at least cover the spread until the final two minutes of play. Ben Roethlisberger got hurt. And Pittsburgh’s pass defense was simply awful, just as it was the previous week when they let Johnny Manziel throw for a career high 370 yards against them, or the week before that, when Derek Carr rallied Oakland from two scores down in the fourth quarter, throwing for more than 300 yards and four TD’s against them. This isn’t new. It isn’t different. We've seen teams run on Seattle, like the Bengals did in their come-from-17 points-behind win over the Seahawks, or the Cowboys did in their one point loss, without a passing game. We've seen teams pass on Seattle every week, like the Lions did in their near upset on Monday Night Football, and like Arizona, Pittsburgh and Carolina did to them. The Seahawks overall numbers are buoyed by those games against bottom feeders (they also beat the Bears with Jimmy Clausen at QB), but the 'eye test' has shown this defense failing repeatedly against decent offenses; particularly during crunch time. The betting markets still remember Seattle’s 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS run to close out the season last year. Guess what – that was last year, not this year. And the fact that the Seahawks are tied for #4 in the NFL in yards per play differential between what they gain on offense compared to what they allow on defense ensures betting market support, despite the fact that statistical profile is completely fraudulent. It’s also very much worth noting that the Seahawks have NOT played well on the highway at any point this season. They beat San Fran on a Thursday Night game against an inexperience coaching staff right before Colin Kaepernick got benched. And they beat Dallas by a single point with Cassel at QB, the closest the Cowboys came to winning a game with Cassel behind center. The Seahawks lost all three of their other road games (0-2-1 ATS). The case against Seattle is pretty clear – I’ve been making money fading the Seahawks on a consistent basis this season. But the case for Minnesota is what makes this wager worthy of GOY status, because the pro-Mike Zimmer side of the equation isn’t quantified with stats that the betting markets pay attention to! Rather, my STRONG support for the Vikings has a lot of nuance involved. The key point here is the Vikings previous struggles in ‘big games’. Minnesota hasn’t been on TV much this year. Remember when they got wiped out at San Francisco on Monday Night Football in Week 1? The markets certainly remembered that game, probably too much, because the Vikings proceeded to go 8-0 ATS in their next eight games, a truly rare occurrence at the NFL level. But the real kicker was the Vikings ugly home loss to Green Bay two weeks ago. Every post-game quote coming out of that locker room was an angry one, frustrated with their inability to step up in a statement game. Their running game didn’t work. Their defense didn’t get pressure on the opposing quarterback and gave up numerous long pass plays. Their special teams lost every battle, resulting in disastrous field position throughout the game. The Vikings also had 110 yards of penalties, and they spent the fourth quarter hearing loud cheers from the many Packers fans in attendance. This is a team built on running Adrian Peterson, playing strong defense and winning the special teams battles, so when all three of them failed on a big stage, no one was happy. Adrian Peterson: “This team you saw play today, it wasn't us. We were out of sync, out of whack.” CB Captain Munnerlyn: “We've got to fix this. You've got to be able to win when the whole world is watching.” Well, Minnesota bounced back strong with a solid double digit win at Atlanta last week, but once again, the mainstream narrative was ‘Atlanta Bad’, not ‘Minnesota Good’. Hence this pick ‘em pointspread to support the Vikings in a statement game for the superior team playing at home against a West Coast team travelling east for an early start game. Expect the Vikings to win. Big Ticket GOY: Take the Vikings. |
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11-29-15 | Patriots v. Broncos +3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 57 h 55 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver (#274)
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11-22-15 | Broncos +1.5 v. Bears | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 95 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver (#467) I tend to step up my wager to a Big Ticket level in two particular circumstances. Either the markets are misreading and/or mispricing at least one of the two teams, or the spot stands out strongly enough that the markets aren’t making the appropriate adjustments. This game features both of those circumstances working in Denver’s favor. The Broncos are, quite simply, badly mispriced in the betting markets this week; coming off their single worst game of the season. If you watched Denver this preseason, you know that Brock Osweiler was better than Peyton Manning in August. If you watched last week’s game, you know that Brock Osweiler was better than Peyton Manning in that game as well. Sure, Osweiler made a couple of ugly throws, typical for a first time starter at QB. But the Chiefs defense is one heck of a lot better than the stop unit Osweiler will face this week in Chicago. From a line value perspective, this game stands out like a sore thumb. The lookahead line LAST WEEK – not over the summer, but last week – was Denver -6.5. The Broncos lost, Manning got ruled out for this week, while Chicago played their single best game of the season, beating up the Rams, Lo and behold, there’s been an EIGHT POINT adjustment, That’s not just ‘too much’. In fact, it’s ‘way too much’. Manning is a Hall of Famer, but he’s been holding his team back all year – period. The numbers don’t lie. Manning ranks #31 out of 32 NFL quarterbacks with enough attempts to qualify (ahead of only Ryan Mallett) with a 67.6 QB rating. He leads the league in interceptions, while throwing only nine TD passes in nine games. Pardon my all caps here, but I want to make this very clear. THE BRONCOS ARE AS GOOD OR BETTER WITHOUT MANNING AT QB! There’s no downgrade for a team replacing the 31st ranked QB, especially since we already know that his backup can play! My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting Chicago two weeks ago when they went to San Diego and won outright as an underdog – I’ve got modest respect for the surprising Bears. But on the defensive side of the football, there’s absolutely no comparison between these two teams. Denver has allowed 4.3 yards per play this year compared to 5.6 yards per play allowed for Chicago. The Broncos allow 3.5 yards per carry. The Bears allow 4.6 yards per carry. Opposing QB’s have a 74.6 rating against the Broncos. Against the Bears, opposing QB’s have a 94.8 rating. And oh, by the way, the Broncos have accumulated those defensive stats against a schedule that’s been just as tough as Chicago’s. Chicago has lost every ‘step-up’ game this year, falling to the Packers, Vikings, Cardinals and Seahawks. Three of their four wins have been complete coinflips by three points or less. And last weeks’ blowout against the Rams had as much to do with Nick Foles inept play as any other factor. This is not a team with much of a homefield edge – their only win at Soldier Field all year came by two points against the Raiders, when Oakland was making their second straight trip East for an early start game. Denver is still very much a Super Bowl contender, but the Broncos are coming off back-2-back losses; circle the wagons time for Gary Kubiak and company – this is a clear Broncos ‘bet-on spot’ this week. They’ll get shutdown corner Aqib Talib back from his suspension this week, and his counterpart, TJ Ward, is expected to suit up as well. Look for plenty of Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson between the tackles, setting things up for Osweiler to succeed in his first NFL start. After sitting on Denver’s bench for the last four years, he’s ready……..Big Ticket: Take the Broncos. |
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11-15-15 | Chiefs +6 v. Broncos | Top | 29-13 | Win | 100 | 77 h 39 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Kansas City (#269) Despite their disappointing 1-5 start – a stretch in which the Chiefs literally gave away wins to the Broncos, Bears and Vikings with late game collapses and miscues – there is a clear path to the AFC West title or a Wild Card run for Kansas City. The Chiefs turned their season around with a pair of wins prior to their bye week. Their upcoming schedule features two games against the Chargers and two more against the Raiders – winnable games. They get Buffalo and Cleveland at home, and travel to Baltimore; again, all winnable games. But any path to the playoffs starts here in Denver on Sunday; a HUGE game for the road team, especially considering the revenge angle from the first meeting. When these teams met in Week 2, KC controlled the flow throughout. But their defense faltered with the game on the line over the final two minutes, allowing a Peyton Manning TD drive to tie the game. That was followed immediately by a Jamal Charles fumble, returned for the game winning touchdown in the closing seconds. The team was hung over from that loss for weeks, and judging from the quotes coming out of that KC locker room during the bye, it’s a loss that they’re focused to avenge this Sunday. Coach Andy Reid: “They’ve worked hard, they’ve stayed focused. I think some of the young players have grown up a bit. And then some of the guys that were banged up a bit, either from last year or earlier in this season, have come back and look like they’re getting more into the swing of things…. I’ve said it before. I like this football team. They’ve showed the last few weeks why.” It’s no secret that Reid’s teams have enjoyed tremendous success off the bye, 14-2 SU dating back to his tenure in Philadelphia. He gave his team a full week off to start the bye – they’re rested and ready now. Peyton Manning was back to his noodle armed self in Indy last week, following a strong effort after the Broncos own bye week. His 9 TD to 13 INT ratio this season looks ugly, both on paper and in reality. Chiefs QB Alex Smith has a better QB rating than Manning, who now ranks below the likes of Colin Kaepernick and Nick Foles in QB rating this season. Denver has only gotten three 20+ yard carries from their running game all season. And the Chiefs defense is the toughest D that the Broncos have faced since their tight, late three point win over Minnesota more than a month ago. Don’t look for Denver to march up and down the field on offense Denver will be without two key pieces on the defensive side of the football; the unit that has carried them to victory in the vast majority of their games this season. Shutdown cornerback Aqib Talib has been suspended, while their best pass rusher and leading sackmeister DeMarcus Ware is out with injury. This is not a depleted defense, but without two of their best players, it’s not as good as it’s been. Look for KC to hang tough here for the full 60 minutes, with a solid shot at the outright upset. Big Ticket: Take the Chiefs. |
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11-12-15 | Bills +2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 56 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Buffalo (#109) I tend to step up my wager to a Big Ticket level in two particular circumstances. Either the markets are misreading and/or mispricing at least one of the two teams, or the spot stands out strongly enough that the markets aren’t making the appropriate adjustments. This game features both of those circumstances working in Buffalo’s favor. The Bills are mis-priced in the betting markets. Yes, Buffalo underachieved throughout October, going 1-3 SU and ATS, in a four game stretch, the lone victory coming by a single point at Tennessee. But the Bills aren’t the same team now that they were last month. It makes a big difference to have a healthy QB in Tyrod Taylor, two healthy RB’s in Shady McCoy and Karlos Williams, and a healthy deep threat in Sammy Watkins all returning to the field following injury absences in their blowout over Miami last Sunday. Rex Ryan’s pre-bye quote stands out even more now: “Quite honestly, I don't know if I've ever been on a team that needed a bye week worse than we do. We got to get some guys back. Not just average football players, but pretty darn good ones. We got to get them back, we got to get healthy and have a heck of a go at it, nine games." With the offensive line coming off a great effort and a defense that has benefitted from some scheme tweaking during the bye, the Bills deserve to be priced at more than a field goal higher than they were before the bye. I’m not seeing the markets making a big enough adjustment! The Jets are mis-priced in the betting markets too! This is a VERY banged up football team. Their running game hasn’t worked with center Nick Mangold and tackle Willie Colon very limited due to injuries – Chris Ivory has only 84 yards on 55 carries over the past three weeks. Kicker Nick Folk is out, forcing the Jets to eschew field goals last week. Their secondary is banged up with Antonio Cromartie no sure thing to suit up on Thursday, joining Dee Millner and Calvin Pryor on the injury list. And QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is likely to get thumb surgery immediately following the game. This Jets team was +4 in turnovers last week and still almost lost at home to the Jaguars; picked apart by Blake Bortles in the passing game. Yes, the Jets would be a playoff team if the season ended today, but make no mistake about it – the current banged up Jets deserve a significant power rating downgrade from where they were back in September and early October. And if there’s one trend that has become VERY clear on Thursday Night Football this year, it’s that experienced coaches have a big edge over the coaches who haven’t had to get their team ready for a short turnaround week. Look at how the less experienced coaches teams have performed this year – I’ve listed every single example from this year, which shows a 6-0 ATS mark betting against the inexperienced coaches (first or second year as an NFL head coach). The Browns just got wiped out last Thursday, with the relatively inexperienced Mike Pettine facing off against coaching veteran Marvin Lewis. First year, first time head coach Dan Campbell did not have his team ready against Bill Belichick on Thursday Night the previous week. San Fran’s inexperienced Jim Tomsula got wiped out by Pete Carroll the week before that. Atlanta’s Dan Quinn in his first year at the helm didn’t have his team ready at Sean Payton’s Saints the week before that. In his second year, Bill O’Brien’s Texans struggled against Chuck Pagano and the Colts before that. Jay Gruden, in his second year, was no match for Tom Coughlin when the Giants faced the Redskins. This is NOT a trend that the betting markets seem to be noticing, but it’s been paying off all year and it passes the ‘does it make sense’ test. A short week is not easy for any coach, and the first timers are at a real and significant disadvantage. I’ll give Rex Ryan a big edge here over Todd Bowles, expecting the outright upset on his return to the Big Apple. Big Ticket: Take the Bills. |
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11-09-15 | Bears +4 v. Chargers | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 125 h 42 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Chicago (#473) I can do this write-up in a single sentence: San Diego can’t be laying more than a field goal to ANYBODY right now The Chargers injury list is truly a mile long, missing numerous key starters on both sides of the football. I’ll just rattle a bunch of names off here: their best receiver, Keenan Allen just went on IR. So did RB Brandon Oliver and LB Tourek Williams. Offensive linemen Orlando Franklin and King Dunlap are both questionable at best this week, as is TE LaDarius Green. On the defensive side of the ball, CB Brandon Flowers, DE Corey Liuget, S Eric Weddle, LB Manti Te’o, LB Denzel Perryman and CB Craig Mager all have significant injury concerns. These aren’t second tier players – they comprise most of the Chargers top talent. But because QB Philip Rivers is still healthy (relatively, he’s taken a ton of big hits over the past few weeks), the betting markets haven’t made major adjustments – hence this pointspread. There’s no ‘circling the wagons’ for this team this year, not with six losses in their last seven games. San Diego’s two wins have come by five against the Lions and by three against the Browns; neither of whom is better than Chicago. The Chargers are more than ready for their upcoming bye week. It’s surely worth noting that they lost 37-0 at Miami just prior to their bye week last year….. Bears head coach John Fox has dominated his former assistants, like Mike McCoy in San Diego, winning four times in five meetings against McCoy. His team has been playing competitive football; four straight games where there was a lead change in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Since two non-competitive losses to Arizona and Seattle in September (one of which featured Jimmy Clausen at QB), this team has been in every game; beating the Raiders and Chiefs while coming a field goal short against the Lions and Vikings. I’m not worried about the Matt Forte injury for Chicago – Jeremy Langford is a more than capable fill-in. The Bears defense has been better than advertised, and Jay Cutler has developed excellent chemistry with big play WR Alshon Jeffrey and TE Martellus Bennett. And for a team that has been outside the spotlight for the last few years, a quote like this stands out, from offensive lineman Kyle Long: ‘“I'm really excited to see how this team responds to playing under the lights in front of the national, international stage. All of our colleagues will be watching. Pretty special thing in the NFL to be able to play on Monday night.” I’m not convinced in the slightest that the Chargers share that level of enthusiasm…..Big Ticket: Take the Bears. |
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11-02-15 | Colts v. Panthers -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Take Carolina (#276) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Panthers last week in their win and cover over Philly. Numbers have been updated to reflect current realities. “There’s quite a bit of debate within the handicapping community as to how good these Panthers really are. The betting markets certainly don’t believe in Carolina; a team that took Under $$ on their season win total throughout the preseason. Bettors were not impressed by the Panthers 4-0 start, because all they beat was bottom feeders: the Jags, Texans, Saints and Bucs in the first four weeks, teams that are a combined 12-18 this year. Their come-from-behind win against the Seahawks didn’t change market perception. And the takeaway from last week’s win against the Eagles was more ‘Philly bad’ than ‘Carolina good.’ So there’s still legitimate debate as to Carolina’s 6-0 start, with many seasoned bettors calling Carolina a fraud. “I disagree with that assessment strongly! Carolina has an elite defense, ranked #2 in the NFL in yards per play allowed – only the Broncos have been better. The Panthers also have an elite quarterback in Cam Newton and despite the lack of top notch WR talent, the Panthers have passed the ball effectively all year. RB Jonathan Stewart is more than capable of providing balance. Let’s not forget that since their 3-8-1 start last year, the Panthers are 11-1 SU in their last dozen games, the lone loss coming at Seattle in the playoffs last year via a Kam Chancellor 90 yard pick six in the fourth quarter. This is a very good team – borderline elite – that the markets simply don’t respect.” We’ve seen continued disrespect for Carolina in the betting markets leading up until kickoff, with the Panthers bet down to as low as -5 as I type this on Monday morning. This comes despite the fact that the Colts are pretty much a train wreck right now. Andrew Luck isn’t healthy, and he’s enduring the worst season of his professional career. Indy’s offensive line is a bottom tier unit, bad news against Carolina’s devastating pass rush. Indy’s supposedly ‘elite’ level receiving corps has been anything but elite, bad news against Carolina’s top notch secondary. The Colts rank #30 in the NFL at rushing the football, leaving all the pressure on Luck’s shoulders. That hasn’t worked out too well thusfar, considering Indy’s three wins have come against the Titans, Jaguars and Texans. But the two biggest ongoing issues for the Colts don’t include that underachieving offense. Indy’s defense is just flat out bad. They can’t stop the run. They can’t stop the pass. They don’t generate sacks (only 10 all year) or turnovers (only seven forced in seven games). I don’t trust Indy to keep Carolina’s offense off the field. And the ongoing Chuck Pagano circus is clearly an issue for the Colts right now. Pagano has no contract extension. His every move – particularly on special teams decisions in recent weeks – has been scrutinized unmercifully. It’s pretty clear that Pagano is on his way out from Indy, not that dissimilar a situation to the one that the 49ers faced with Jim Harbaugh last year. San Fran covered only two pointspreads in their final ten games of 2014…….. Take the Panthers. |
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11-01-15 | Bengals v. Steelers +1 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 28 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Pittsburgh (#264). I don’t trust a 6-0 Bengals team coming off the bye one iota, especially with the early week line showing Cinci as road favorites in Pittsburgh. I do NOT expect this line to hold, there’s urgency here to get the best of the number with the Steelers). Let me start with the anti-Cinci portion of the equation. Cinci has significant ‘fat and happy’ potential here. That’s exactly what happened last year, when their Week 4 bye came after a ‘fat and happy’ 3-0 start to the season. Cinci came out of that bye and laid a complete egg in a statement game, blasted 43-17 by the Pats. They lost at home to Denver following the bye in 2012. In between, in 2013, a Bengals team that averaged 27 points per game was held to 17 against a bad Chargers defense, although they escaped with a tight win over a non-playoff team. In fact, Marvin Lewis has only four wins in 12 tries following a bye during his tenure in Cincinnati, and that’s not counting the Bengals even more woeful showings with extra time to prepare during the playoffs. And despite their 6-0 start, I’ve got real questions as to whether this Bengals team is truly an elite contender. None of those six wins came against an opponent with a winning record – heck, four of them came against teams that are currently in last place in their divisions. The big signature’ win of the bunch came against a struggling Seahawks team; a truly ‘lucky’ win that was as much about Seattle melting down as it was anything Cinci did right. Let’s not forget that the Bengals trailed by 17 points at home heading into the fourth quarter of that game. Cinci is loaded with elite level playmakers, but they still have mistake-prone Andy Dalton at quarterback; a QB who has EARNED our mistrust with numerous dismal efforts in big games throughout his first four years in the NFL. More than one of those dismal efforts has come against this Steelers defense; a stop unit that held Cinci to 17 and 21 points in the two meetings last year. In fact, Cinci hasn’t produced more than 21 points in any game against Pittsburgh in eight previous career starts against them. The markets are very high on Cinci’s defense, but there’s a clear statistical flaw that stands out like a sore thumb – the Bengals have struggled to stop the run. They rank #10 in terms of rushing yards allowed – no red flag there, hence the market respect. But Cinci has allowed a woeful 4.9 yards per CARRY, tied with Washington and New Orleans at 30th in the NFL. Only the Browns and Chargers have been worse. And if there’s one thing this Steelers team is going to do in Ben Roethlisberger’s return to the lineup this week, it’s running Le’Veon Bell down the Bengals collective throats. Pittsburgh’s run defense on a yards per carry basis ranks in the Top 10…. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has said repeatedly that he expects Ben Roethlisberger to suit up at quarterback this week; although the markets haven’t fully adjusted to Big Ben’s return. Compared to Michael Vick or Landry Jones, Roethlisberger is (obviously) an enormous upgrade, especially now that the Steelers have their full complement of skill position talent healthy. When we talk about Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton, Darrius Heyward Bay and Heath Miller, that’s one heck of a pass catching quintet for a QB that has averaged more than ten yards per ATTEMPT while completing 75% of those attempts this season before he got hurt. A healthy Steelers offense is every bit as good, if not better, than a healthy Bengals offense. We’ve got the Steelers fully focused, coming off a poorly played loss at Kansas City; 2-0 SU and ATS coming off a loss this year. We’ve got an underrated Steelers defense that is actually better on a yards per play basis then the Cinci defense, despite facing a much tougher early season schedule – Pittsburgh has faced the Patriots and Cardinals, two teams that are better than anyone Cinci has seen this year. The Steelers have two double digit wins in three tries at home this year, and their lone loss came only via a pair of missed field goals in the latter stages. Let’s lock in on Pittsburgh RIGHT NOW, before this line moves when Big Ben’s return is ‘officially’ confirmed. Big Ticket: Take the Steelers. |
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10-25-15 | Oakland Raiders +4 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 99 h 6 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oakland (#469) The Raiders are better than the Chargers, but years of dismal Oakland showings and back-2-back ATS losses for Jack Del Rio’s squad prior to their bye has kept Oakland’s power rating deflated. That gives us ample value to jump onboard Oakland here as they take on a Chargers squad that hasn’t exactly been a pointspread machine, particularly in this ‘home chalk’ role. The Chargers have two wins this year. They barely escaped with a win over the hapless Lions in Week 1, and they barely escaped with a win over the almost hapless Browns in Week 4; failing to cover the spread with that tight, three point victory. They closed out last year with four straight ATS losses in the role of the favorite; including a pair of ATS losses in two tight wins over Oakland. The Chargers certainly aren’t much better than last year’s 8-8 squad. The Raiders, on the other hand, have vastly improved. On a yards per play basis, the Chargers rank #31 out of 32 NFL defenses this year – only the Saints are worse. And don’t be fooled for a minute by their supposedly good defensive showing at Green Bay last Sunday. San Diego allowed more than seven yards per rush to the Packers. They allowed more than seven yards per pass. They didn’t force any turnovers, and the Packers had more scoring drives than punts. That same defense couldn’t get a stop with the game on the line against a hapless Michael Vick led Steelers offense the previous week. The Browns marched up and down the field against this D prior to that. Minnesota scored a season high against them the previous week. I think you get my point – teams with no defense don’t make good favorites, especially laying more than a field goal against a hungry divisional rival coming off their bye week. It’s surely worth noting that NFL teams are a perfect 6-0 ATS coming off the bye so far this year (depending on your line for the Bills- Titans game). San Diego’s offense isn’t that great either. Their leading rusher has been held to 55 yards or less five times in their first six games. Their best receiver, by far, Keenan Allen, has a hip flexor injury, not likely to be anywhere near 100% this week. Allen has more than twice as many catches and nearly twice as many receiving yards as any other player on the team; absolutely an impact injury for Philip Rivers security blanket. For a team coming off crushing, last minute losses in each of the past two weeks, their ongoing injury woes certainly don’t help matters. The Raiders have been NFL laughingstocks for more than a decade, but things are clearly, finally looking up in Jack Del Rio’s first year on the job. Oakland has developed a big play passing game with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree providing quick strike potential on every catch. Derek Carr is avoiding interceptions, throwing only three picks on 162 pass attempts. RB Latavius Murray should feast on a Chargers defense that’s allowed a whopping 5.3 yards per rush attempt this year, ranked dead last in the league. The Raiders defense has improved by leaps and bounds from their opening day debacle against the Bengals, holding each of their last three foes to 22 points or less. Oakland is live to win this game. At +4, they’re clearly worthy of Big Ticket status this week! Big Ticket: Take the Raiders. |
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10-18-15 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 97 h 28 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Carolina (#267) 1) My clients and I continue our fade of the Seahawks; a team that remains a dramatically overvalued commodity in the betting markets thanks to an offensive line that can’t protect Russell Wilson and a defense that isn’t generating key stops at crucial points of the game. 2) The betting markets are devaluing the Panthers because “they haven’t played anybody yet”. Just because Carolina hasn’t faced a strong foe yet doesn’t mean that they are a weak team! Let’s not forget that Ron Rivera’s squad has won their last eight regular season games dating back to last year. 3) This is absolutely a ‘bet-on’ spot for the Panthers. They’re in playoff revenge for a loss here last year, on the heels of three very tight previous losses to the Seahawks in the last three years. Coming off their bye week, look for Cam Newton and company to make a statement on Sunday. 4) NO URGENCY HERE! Expect this line to continue to drift upwards between now and kickoff. |
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10-11-15 | New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 97 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Philadelphia (#462) The betting markets are crashing on Philly just as they are buying the Saints. I think both teams are priced incorrectly as a result, leaving Chip Kelly’s Eagles as a dramatically undervalued commodity as short home favorites on Sunday. First, Philly isn’t that bad, and that’s coming from a guy who bet the Eagles Under 9.5 wins this season, unwilling to buy into the preseason Chip Kelly hype. The Eagles are certainly a .500 caliber team; not a bottom feeder. Sam Bradford and the offense has struggled against divisional foes that are familiar with it from recent meetings, suffering a very bad game against the Cowboys and a very bad first half against the Redskins last week. But their second half rally against Washington as well as this offense has played since the preseason. We also saw signs of Philly’s offensive capability in their second half rally at Atlanta back in Week 1. I don’t want the Eagles laying points against a divisional rival, but the Saints defense is abysmal and their offense isn’t good enough to trade points with a team like Philly. New Orleans has the single worst defense in the NFL on a ‘yards per play’ basis, allowing 6.5 yards per snap. Those defensive numbers look even worse considering that two of their four games have come against Jameis Winston in his first NFL road start and Brandon Weeden, now winless as a starter since 2012. Coordinator Rob Ryan’s schemes have been thoroughly discredited, particularly bad news given the Saints lack of defensive talent and depth on all three units. An explosive, quick strike offense like that of the Eagles is a disaster waiting to happen for this sorry stop unit. To make matters even worse for New Orleans, Drew Brees can’t throw downfield with his bum shoulder. The Saints entire offense against Dallas last Sunday Night was dink and dunk, with only one play longer than 20 yards prior to CJ Spiller’s catch and run TD on the first play of overtime. They were able to win the game only because they were facing a very banged up Dallas team. Philly’s defense is both healthier and better than that out of Cowboys, and the Saints won’t be playing on their comfortable home turf. I’m not expecting anything resembling an offensive explosion from the road underdog here. And this pointspread is remarkably cheap given the circumstance. Philly is a 1-3 team returning home for a ‘save our season’ game. Unlike some other 1-3 teams in similar spots, the Eagles are good enough to turn this around, and we can expect their best effort of the season right here. Meanwhile,the Saints just got off the schnied with that OT win over Dallas, taking away their ‘must win’ edge. New Orleans is much weaker than Philly on both sides of the ball, and they’re heading up to face the wrong team at the wrong time in the wrong venue. Expect a blowout. Big Ticket: Take the Eagles. |
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10-05-15 | Detroit Lions +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Take Detroit (#277) This game comes down to two very simple factors for me. First, the Lions aren’t that bad. Second, the Seahawks aren’t that good. That makes taking the points with Detroit a clear choice for this bettor on Monday Night Football tonight. 0-3 teams aren’t ‘quit’ teams, not by any stretch of the imagination. We saw the 0-3 Saints play their best game of the season last night. Same story with the 0-3 Bears yesterday afternoon, and the 0-3 Ravens on Thursday Night, a team that played like their hair was on fire. The end result of those three games is irrelevant, even though all three teams won SU and ATS in tight, competitive contests against non-bottom feeder foes. The point is that each of the three other 0-3 teams came to play. None of them got blown out. And, even at 0-3, the Lions haven’t been blown out in any game. They were driving to take the lead in the fourth quarter last week, in Broncos territory, before a turnover sealed their fate. In Week 2, Minnesota didn’t put Detroit away until another late INT. In Week 1, the Lions had a second half lead, and even after blowing it, they came through with a ‘meaningless’ late touchdown, showing effort and execution in a hostile environment. Detroit’s biggest issue this year – poor offensive line play -- is primed for improvement. The OL, in particular, has struggled with their execution. But Detroit averaged more than four yards per rush against arguably the NFL’s best defense last week. The Vikings defense they faced the previous week is also an elite unit. And the quotes coming out of Detroit indicate that the OL is confident they can turn things around. Center Travis Swanson: “Everything that you see is correctable.” OL coach Jeremiah Washburn: “It really has been a technique error here, a technique error there. And it's unfortunate, and it's frustrating for us and for the team as a whole….these guys are going to get stronger and stronger and stronger as they continue facing these things. But, we've just got to stay committed to what we do and learn from our errors and just improve and get stronger, and we've got to do it quickly. It's not, 'Hey, be patient. By December we're going to be great.' No, we've got to be great by Monday." The betting markets continue to view Seattle as an elite level contender, and last week’s 26-0 win over the Bears on this field left many bettors convinced that the Seahawks are just fine, despite their 0-2 start. I disagree. Let’s not forget that Chicago had zero downfield passing game with no Alshon Jeffrey and with Jimmy Clausen behind center. Despite no fear of any passes travelling longer than ten yards, Seattle was gashed at the line of scrimmage by Matt Forte. Don’t be surprised of Ameer Abdullah has a bit of a coming out party tonight against a run defense that simply isn’t as good as advertised. Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense isn’t expected to have Marshawn Lynch this evening. Their offensive line has been a sieve thusfar, with Russell Wilson taking 12 sacks in the first three games. Seattle’s point totals have been buoyed by three non-offensive TD’s in their first three games, making them look stronger than they actually are. With only a single play from scrimmage longer than 30 yards all year, this offense isn’t explosive, it’s dink-and-dunk, not the type of offense that makes for a comfortable take in a game they’ll need to win by double digits to cover. Take the Lions. |
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10-04-15 | NY Jets v. Miami Dolphins +2 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#252) (VERY EARLY START IN LONDON) Look back at Miami’s 2014 season for a moment, because the parallels are uncanny. Last year, the Dolphins notched a big Week 1 win, routing the Patriots. They followed that up with a disappointing road loss to the Bills in Week 2. In Week 3, the Dolphins returned home and were complete no-shows, blasted as six point home favorites, losing by 19 to the Chiefs, a loss that was every bit as ugly as Miami’s loss to the Bills last week. In Week 4, nobody wanted to bet the Dolphins as they travelled to London, and they closed -4 against the Raiders – the single lowest pointspread of the year for Oakland away from home. Miami dominated that game start-to finish, righting the ship with a 38-14 blowout. So here we are in 2015. The Dolphins won in Week 1. They lost by a field goal Week 2. Last week, they came home and were no-shows at home in Week 3 against the Bills. And now, the Dolphins have to go to London in Week 4, a place where they turned their season around last year. It’s the EXACT same spot as last year and Miami showed us in 2014 that they were capable of taking advantage and upping their game with the chips stacked against them. Look at these two quotes to illustrate the Dolphins previous experience with a London game, compared to the Jets. Dolphins safety Michael Thomas: “We've been here before, so we know what we gotta do, and that's just go back to work, find a way to get this W." Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, talking about a Jets team that has not travelled overseas before: “Just getting our bodies acclimated and everything with the time change will be interesting…. Guys think it's cool to go over there. It will be a unique experience for all of us." These two quotes tell us even more. Jets WR Brandon Marshall: “It's a five-time zone difference, so you have to do a great job of getting your body accustomed to that time zone.” Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin: “People in the organization have done a great job organizing it. You can't make excuses. We're playing the game in London, we knew that. ...We gotta get ready to play." With the bye on deck for next week, this is a HUGE game for Philbin’s future – he’s coaching for his job on Sunday. And Miami, unlike the Jets, is playing for their season. QB Ryan Tannehill: “'Guys are frustrated. We know we're a better team than we've showed. There's no panic, but definitely urgency to get this thing turned around…. We have good energy. We go out there and we're confident in what we're doing. We're just not making enough plays early.” Center Mike Pouncey: “We gotta win next week. Next week is a must-win. If we don't win next week, man, there will be a lot of pissed off guys around here." While the Dolphins are primed to bring their ‘A’ game on Sunday, the Jets are not. New York’s passing game looked anemic without Eric Decker in the lineup last week and Decker’s status for Sunday does not look good. Left guard Willie Colon is out as well, bad news for backup Brian Winters matched up against Ndamukong Suh. Both starting cornerbacks, Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie are battling injuries as well, and Miami’s three WR sets will force slot corner Buster Skrine on Tannehill’s ‘security blanket’ WR Jarvis Landry. And frankly, even after a loss to Philly last Sunday, the Jets desperation doesn’t match that of the Dolphins this week. Expect a Miami win. Big Ticket: Take the Dolphins. |
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09-24-15 | Washington Redskins +4 v. NY Giants | Top | 21-32 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 8 m | Show |
Take Washington (#301) Much of my early season NFL success this year has come via the ‘mispriced teams’ concept. It’s easy to understand why early season NFL pointspreads are vulnerable to this theory. When a team was good last year, they were priced in the season win markets like a good team this year. When a team was bad last year, they were priced in the season win markets like a bad team again this year. Those season win numbers translate into early season pointspreads fairly consistently. But following an offseason where numerous teams appear to have morphed significantly from where they were last December, bettors who focus on these morphing teams – being proactive, not reactive -- are catching the betting markets lagging behind. There are a good handful of clear examples from the ‘trending downwards’ standpoint. The Colts, Saints, Seahawks, Ravens and Eagles all stand out in that regard; highly regarded teams in the betting markets despite some clear drop-offs in talent and/or coaching since the end of last year. Bettors who focused on those teams preseason expectations, looking for a Week 2 bounceback, went 0-5 ATS last week. On the other end of the spectrum, we have the Washington Redskins, a team that was widely considered to be an absolute bottom feeder heading into the campaign. And the Redskins maintained that hapless reputation even after Week 1; a game where they largely outplayed the Dolphins but ended up losing SU and ATS thanks to a late punt return touchdown. Hence the lack of market respect for the ‘Skins even after they knocked off St Louis last week. And a closer look at the Skins makes it very clear -- a funny thing has happened on the way to a surefire last place finish in the NFC East; a team that was priced at 20:1 to win the division at the Westgate Superbook. This team is MUCH better than projections. There’s absolutely no reason to think it’s a mirage. And the markets aren’t willing to adjust appropriately in support of a team that’s still widely considered to be a bottom feeder. What’s good about Washington? They chose the right quarterback, ending the RG3 drama and locker room divisiveness when Kirk Cousins was named as the starter. They’ve gotten great offensive line play, with the addition of offensive line coach Bill Callahan paying huge dividends already. Jeff Fisher following last week’s loss, talking about the Skins OL “Callahan has done a great job with that offensive line. It’s like Dallas all over again.” Center Travis Frederick: “Ultimate technician, he’s focused on every single detail. He’ll watch every play several times to specifically target every point. ‘Your hand is two inches to the right.’ Or, ‘Your foot came down too early or didn’t step in the right direction.’ He’s all over every point. He demands the best. Certainly helped me.” Two 100 yard rushers against an elite front seven like that of the Rams has this bettor taking notice! And Washington’s defense has controlled the flow for two straight weeks. Discredited ‘big blitz way too much’ coordinator Jim Haslett was shown the door in the offseason, and new DC Joe Barry has seen his rebuilt stop unit dominate the line of scrimmage in each of their first two games, resulting in opponents converting only 7 of 24 third down chances, a top five mark in the NFL. Facing a beat up, struggling Giants offensive line should give Washington’s productive front four another prime opportunity to blow up the line of scrimmage and wreak havoc in the backfield. And make no mistake about it – this is absolutely a statement game for the road team, swept the Giants SU and ATS in each of the last two years. The Giants have blown double digit fourth quarter leads in each of their first two games; not exactly the most confident or well executing team these days. They’re playing without their top playmaking threat on offense (Victor Cruz) and defense (Jason Pierre Paul). There’s not much of a homefield edge in Jersey these days – the G-men have lost five of their last six in SU fashion on this field, a trend worth riding again on Thursday Night. Take the Redskins. |
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09-21-15 | NY Jets +7 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Take the New York Jets (#289) There’s a school of thought holding sway in the betting markets that because the Colts were lined as a 10.5 win team prior to the season while the Jets were lined in the 7.5 win range, those numbers are still very meaningful. Those same bettors will be talking about the perceived ‘value’ with the Colts at -7, because the lookahead line last week was Indy -9.5. But that argument is missing three key points in my opinion, the combination of which is enough to get me to the betting window in support of the Jets tonight. First, Indy’s season win total wasn’t a measure of how good the Colts actually were supposed to be. Every sharp bettor I talked to over the summer – and I talked to plenty of them -- expressed reservations about the makeup of the Colts roster. In short, this team had all the makings of a paper tiger. Andrew Luck is elite and can win games by himself. The remainder of the Colts roster? Not so much! Indy was priced as a 10.5 win team in the preseason because of their VERY weak schedule, not their talent level. That has left the Colts as something of an overvalued commodity – hence my lack of concern about the line dropping from the ‘lookahead’ numbers last week. Second, the Colts are all banged up, particularly in the secondary. They’re likely be missing a pair of starters in their defensive backfield tonight, with D’Joun Smith already on IR and Greg Toler doubtful. A third member of the secondary, Darius Butler, has been sitting out practices with a hip injury, even though he’s supposed to suit up here. The Colts started a pair of rookies on their defensive line last week as well, and aging pass rushing force Robert Mathis is no sure thing to suit up after missing the opener. This is NOT Indy at full strength on D; not even close; bad news for any favorite of a TD or more. Third, the Jets match up well here. Jets head coach Todd Bowles designed a defense that shut down Andrew Luck when he last faced Indy in 2013 (with Arizona), a 40-11 blowout. The Jets secondary dominated Luck in their lone previous matchup against him, holding the Colts to single digits on the scoreboard and Luck under 200 passing yards. Bowles' defense frustrated Luck with an array of blitzes, limiting him to 163 passing yards. Buffalo’s defense used a similar strategy last week, blitzing on 49% of Luck’s dropbacks, forcing Luck to release the ball before finding his third or fourth option. And it’s surely worth noting that Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has faced Indy’s defense repeatedly in recent seasons during his stints with divisional rivals Houston and Tennessee. All the Colts bettors will be trumping the ‘Indy is 14-1 SU and ATS following a regular season loss with Luck behind center’. That’s a true stat (although the ‘1’ came in Week 2 at home last year, following a Week 1 loss; the same situation that Indy finds themselves in here in 2015). But it’s also a misleading one, because Indy was not widely considered to be a Super Bowl contender in recent seasons -- they weren’t laying inflated prices, like they are here. And Colts bettors certainly won’t be talking about the ongoing rift between Indy head coach Chuck Pagano and upper management, a rift that has a ‘Harbaugh with the 49ers last year’ feel to it already. It’s surely worth noting that the Niners went 1-6-1 ATS as home favorites in their final season under Harbaugh…… Take the Jets. |
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09-20-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers -3.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 103 h 31 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Green Bay (#288) We’ve got two key factors in play that makes this play worthy of Big Ticket status. First, this is the mother of all revenge games for the Packers; truly a circled game on their schedule. And second, Seattle is still being priced like an elite team, despite the fact that there are numerous clear signs that the Seahawks are primed for a serious decline in 2015. Let’s start with the revenge angle. Green Bay was less than five minutes away from the Super Bowl last January, leading 19-7 at Seattle late in the fourth quarter. But a late Seahawks score, followed by an onside kick recovery and another Seahawks score put the game into overtime. A limping, injured Aaron Rodgers never even got the ball in OT, as Seattle took the kick, marched down the field and scored the game winning TD in overtime. This came on the heels of Green Bay’s previous two trips to Seattle. They lost in Week 1 last year, a game where the Packers offensive line was riddled with key injuries. And they lost here on Monday Night Football in the infamous ‘replacement refs’ game, when Seattle was erroneously awarded a TD on the final play of the game to win a game they should have lost. Green Bay most certainly has a statement to make now that they finally get the Seahawks to visit Lambeau Field. From a power rating perspective, these two teams closed out the 2014 season ranked #1 and #2 in the NFC. Neither squad saw their power rating adjusted in any significant way this past offseason, and both entered the new season widely regarded as the best two teams in the conference. There’s only one problem with those ‘hard’ numbers. The Seahawks have all the makings of a team that has declined SIGNIFICANTLY between last year and this year. And there’s a long and storied history of Super Bowl losers suffering major hangovers the following year. Seattle’s in line for both. Let’s start with what we saw last week in St Louis; a game that clearly exposed the Seahawks many flaws. The Seahawks were outgained by 2.1 yards per PLAY against St Louis; not exactly the most explosive offensive team; and a team playing with two rookies making their first career starts on the offensive line. The Seahawks scored a TD on defense and another TD on special teams. They finished +2 in turnovers. And they lost the game outright! That’s a giant red flag! The Seahawks have major offensive line issues, with two new starters and a third starting at a new position. They were repeatedly blown off the line of scrimmage last week. Russell Wilson was under constant pressure; sacked six times. Only one of his passes went for more than 20 yards. Marshawn Lynch couldn’t get into ‘Beast Mode’ without holes to run through. This offense simply isn’t as good as it was last year. The defense is even more suspect. First they lost coordinator Gus Bradley to the Jaguars. Then they lost his replacement, Dan Quinn, to the Falcons. Their loaded defense has lost key depth on all three units, unable to pay market salaries due to salary cap constraints. Pro bowl safety Kam Chancellor is still holding out. Five different Rams receivers caught passes of longer than 20 yards last week, and that was against Nick Foles. Imagine what Aaron Rodgers is poised to do in this ultimate revenge spot! Big Ticket: Take the Packers. |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 51 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Carolina (#315) When these two teams met last month, Carolina was the better team on the field but Atlanta escaped with a two point road victory. When they met last December, the Panthers escaped with a one point win of their own. The two meetings prior to that were both double digit Carolina wins. The first meeting in 2012 was a two point Falcons victory. Bottom line: Atlanta hasn’t beaten Carolina by three or more points in any of the last five meetings dating back to 2011. This isn’t unusual for the Falcons – they’ve been struggling to win games by margin consistently. Mike Smith’s squad has been favored six times this year. The only pointspread covers that they’ve been able to notch in those six tries have come against 2-13 Tampa Bay. That includes three outright losses as chalk, including two right here on this field -- to lowly Chicago and lowly Cleveland. This team can’t be laying more than a field goal, especially against an opponent that is every bit as good as they are. In fact, Carolina is much, much better than Atlanta on defense. The Falcons rank #32 in the NFL in numerous defensive categories, despite facing a relatively weak schedule loaded with opponents that had struggling or weak quarterbacks. They can’t stop the run, they can’t stop the pass, they don’t generate much QB pressure and they don’t create turnovers. The Falcons are 1-4 SU in their last five at home, in large part, due to these defensive difficulties. And with Mike Smith making the key in-game decisions, we can count on at least one or two truly bumbling calls from the Falcons bumbling head coach. Ron Rivera has made more than his fair share of bumbling decisions as the Panthers head man, but at least he has shown signs of learning from his mistakes. And his Carolina teams have gotten better as the season has progressed in every year since he got the job. The Panthers are 14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS in December games during the Rivera era. The only team with a better December record during that span? Bill Belichick’s Patriots! Rivera’s quote speaks volumes about his team’s late season success: “I think a lot of it has to do with things that we do at the end of the year with our players and our players doing the extra time that they put in, I think helps them. Along the line there’s probably something we can learn from what we do in December." The Panthers have won three straight, by far their best stretch of football all year; holding the Saints, Bucs and Browns to a combined total of 40 points. In their last two games, they’ve dominated the box scores, including a 55-23 edge in first downs. Carolina is every bit as good as Atlanta, if not better, even though the Falcons have the ‘flashier’ offensive skill position talent. I’m expecting the outright upset, but catching more than a field goal makes this play truly worthy of Big Ticket status! Big Ticket: Take the Panthers. |
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12-21-14 | Minnesota Vikings +7 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 41 h 16 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Minnesota (#107) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner betting against the Dolphins in New England last week, a game where they trailed by only one at halftime, yet lost by four touchdowns. Frankly, I’m expecting more of the same from Miami this week, a team who’s current power rating numbers (and season long stats) are vastly inflated compared to their current reality. Here’s an excerpt from last week’s write-up: “The Dolphins defense is all worn down. Miami’s season long defensive numbers look good against the run, allowing a modest 4.3 yards per carry. But in this case, full season numbers don’t tell the true story. Four weeks ago, CJ Anderson had 27 carries for 167 yards against this Dolphins defense, on a day where the Broncos had 35 rush attempts. The following week, on Monday Night Football against the Jets, Miami allowed Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson to run for 167 yards against them on 33 carries in a game where the Dolphins defense faced 49 rushing attempts. Two weeks ago, against Baltimore, the Ravens outscored the Dolphins 21-3 in the second half (three 75+ yard TD drives), relying heavily on 31 rushes for 183 yards. Whatever the season long numbers say, they are not current realities. Right now, Miami’s defense, as a unit, is gassed. It’s surely worth noting that their strong pass rush wilted against the Ravens as well, sacking Joe Flacco only once in 34 tries, another indication that this ‘D’ is wearing down.” Miami gave up another 41 points last week, wilting in the second half for the second consecutive week. The Pats second half drive chart looked like this: touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown, field goal. No punts. No third down stops. No sacks. Considering the fact that Miami’s offense is wilting as well (16 points or less in each of the last three weeks), that’s certainly not good news for a team that needs to win this game by a TD or more to cover the spread. With head coach Joe Philbin looking more and more like he’s going to get fired, and QB Ryan Tannehill probably joining him on the bus out of town, the Dolphins simply have no business in this pointspread range at this stage of the campaign. Very quietly, waaaaaaayyyy underneath the radar, the Minnesota Vikings have been the single best pointspread team in football for the last two months, 7-1 ATS in their last eight tries. Teddy Bridgewater has emerged as the clear leader among the 2014 QB draft class. Matt Asiata is grinding out yards on the ground. Mike Zimmer’s defense has been consistently solid, allowing 17 or less in six of their last nine while averaging less than 19 points per game allowed during that span. If the Dolphins manage to win – and that’s a big ‘if’ – I don’t expect it to come by any sort of margin. Big Ticket: Take the Vikings. |
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12-15-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Take New Orleans (#333) Both of these teams played truly dismal football last week. Only one of the two appears capable of bouncing back on Monday Night Football – the road favorite. Chicago doesn’t have much of a homefield edge at Soldier Field these days, winning in SU fashion only twice in six tries at home while failing to cover the spread in any of their four defeats. They covered only one spread in eight games on this field last year. In the most recent of their two home wins, the Bears won despite getting outgained by lowly Tampa Bay by more than 160 yards. The other win came against the Vikings and rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater; a team that hasn’t scored more than 14 points in regulation on the road since Bridgewater took over the starting job. Bears head coach Marc Trestman isn’t likely to be back. QB Jay Cutler has only one interception-free ballgame in his last seven outings and he just lost his favorite target, Brandon Marshall, to a season ending injury. The Bears defense has shown a remarkable amount of ‘quit’; allowing 55, 51, 41 and 34 in their last four defeats. The talent is there, but the attitude is not; a downtrodden team that has most assuredly NOT responded well to adversity in recent weeks. New Orleans won on the road comfortably at Pittsburgh two weeks ago. They won their previous road game, at Carolina, in blowout fashion and covered the spread wire-2-wire in a last second loss at Detroit prior to that; a team playing their best football in hostile environments these days. It’s expected to be relatively mild in Chicago this evening, with temperatures in the 40’s, good news for a dome team playing outdoors in December. But the Saints suffered through a complete no-show at home last week to the Panthers and longtime head coach Sean Payton was not amused. Payton essentially read his team the riot act following that blowout loss, making cuts, benching veterans and letting it be known that New Orleans was still very live to win the division and make a postseason run, despite their poor record. Bottom line: I trust Payton’s ability to get his team to buy in to his message right now much more than I trust Trestman to do the same with his charges. Take New Orleans. |
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12-14-14 | Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take New England (#316) Back in Week 1, when the Dolphins beat the Patriots, they simply wore down New England’s defense in the September heat of Miami. A 20-10 Patriots lead at halftime ended with a 23-0 Dolphins second half runout, as the Dolphins dominated the game on the ground: 35 carries for 191 yards from Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller. New England’s defense wasn’t capable of standing up to the test in 90 degree weather. The situation is very much reversed for the December rematch in New England. While gametime temperatures are expected to be above freezing, at this stage of the season, it’s the Dolphins defense that is all worn down. Miami’s season long defensive numbers look good against the run, allowing a modest 4.3 yards per carry. But in this case, full season numbers don’t tell the true story. Three weeks ago, CJ Anderson had 27 carries for 167 yards against this Dolphins defense, on a day where the Broncos had 35 rush attempts. The following week, on Monday Night Football against the Jets, Miami allowed Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson to run for 167 yards against them on 33 carries in a game where the Dolphins defense faced 49 rushing attempts. Last week against Baltimore, the Ravens outscored the Dolphins 21-3 in the second half (three 75+ yard TD drives), relying heavily on 31 rushes for 183 yards. Whatever the season long numbers say, they are not current realities. Right now, Miami’s defense, as a unit, is gassed. It’s surely worth noting that their strong pass rush wilted last week as well, sacking Joe Flacco only once in 34 tries, another indication that this ‘D’ is wearing down. That’s bad news against the revenge minded Patriots, fighting for homefield edge throughout the playoffs. Let’s not forget – Bill Belichick certainly won’t – that the Dolphins upset the Patriots in Miami last December, owning a rare two game winning streak against New England and ensuring maximum focus for the home favorite. In a series that has seen the Dolphins lose by double digit margins on three of their last four trips to New England, that maximum focus really matters! The Patriots have blown out the Lions, Broncos and Bears in their last three home games; all victories by three TD’s or more. The Pats have much more offensive versatility now than they did back in September; clearly evidenced by their 44 rushes for 246 yard performance in a blowout win at Indy (dominating the game on the ground) immediately followed by a Tom Brady 53 pass attempt game the following week in a blowout win against the Lions. I’m not expecting this tired, worn down Dolphins defense to be able to offer much resistance. To make matters even worse for Miami, their offense has tanked the last two weeks thanks to an overachieving offensive line coming back to earth; a team that isn’t running the football effectively and a passing game that’s coming up very short in the ‘big play’ department. Throw in a cluster injury problem in the secondary and at linebacker and this game has ‘blowout’ written all over it! Big Ticket: Take the Patriots. |
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