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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-09-18 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -113 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Baltimore (#968) In this near ‘pick ‘em’ priced game, the Orioles have clear edges all over the field. Sure, Baltimore is 4-6 right now, compared to the 6-4 record for the Blue Jays. But the Orioles just spent the last week splitting six games against two elite foes – Houston and the New York Yankees – while the Jays were feasting on the Rangers and White Sox, two teams lined with their wins totals in the 70’s. My clients and I already cashed one winning bet supporting Dylan Bundy right here on this field, when he shut down the Twins in his first start of the campaign. Bundy was every bit as good against the hot hitting Astros in his last outing,, allowing just a single earned run while striking out 15 batters in 13 innings of work to open the season. It’s surely worth noting that no current Blue Jay has ever hit a homer of Bundy. Toronto faced him three times last year; plating just two runs in 19 innings of work while striking out 22 times and only walking twice. It’s also worth noting that Bundy got off to a red hot start last year too, allowing only six runs in five April starts; a pitcher with a strong track record coming right out of the gate. JA Happ has no similar track record. He went 0-3 in his three starts against the Orioles last year, and he’s allowed a whopping nine dingers against the Orioles in his last 40 innings pitched against them. Happ has struggled with high pitch counts in each of his first two 2018 outings; bad news on the night AFTER the Jays used just about every key arm in their bullpen to close out the Rangers. Cheap price to lay, in a game worthy of a ‘step-up’ sized wager. Big Ticket: Take the Orioles. |
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04-07-18 | Reds v. Pirates -125 | 7-4 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#962) Things have gone south in a hurry in Cincinnati. The Reds lone win this season came in a 1-0 shutout; a lineup that has been held to three runs or less four times in six games. It’s not like their pitching has been able to make up the difference either – the Reds rank dead last with a -22 run differential so far this year, and their bullpen has an ERA of 9.31 with a .321 batting average against, both worst in the majors. The Pirates, on the other hand, have gotten off to a great start, a locker room that’s buzzing with confidence right now. Last night’s starter Trevor Williams: "We came out of spring training knowing that we were a good team. Now that we have tangible evidence that we're a good team, it's been fun." Off a subpar showing in his 2018 debut, look for emerging starter Chad Kuhl to put Pittsburgh in strong position to win tonight. Cheap price to lay to ride the hot & fade the cold. Take the Pirates. |
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04-05-18 | Mariners v. Twins +100 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#968) Seattle played on the West Coast yesterday, a tough travel spot for a day game in Minnesota today. Mariners starter James Paxton was a legitimate ace for extended stretches last year, but his opening day start was nothing short of a disaster – unable to generate ground ball outs or swings and misses while struggling mightily with his command. Seattle is playing without big bat Nelson Cruz and starting catcher Mike Zunino. Twins starter Kyle Gibson was brilliant down the stretch last year and threw six innings of no-hit ball in his 2018 debut at Baltimore last week. Expect a Minnesota victory in their home opener this afternoon. Take the Twins. |
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04-02-18 | Nationals v. Braves +110 | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#908) The Braves were swinging hot bats in their opening series against the Phillies, hitting .484 with runners in scoring position. That’s bad news for Tanner Roark, who has struggled against current Braves, allowing an .805 OPS in a decent sample size of 141 at bats. Roark got bombed twice in four outings against Atlanta last year, compiling a 5.87 ERA in those four starts. The Nats bullpen got hit hard yesterday; Atlanta’s bullpen is fully rested and pitched well in that first series. And the Braves prized young southpaw Sean Newcomb is coming off an excellent spring in which he appeared to solve his control problems from last year. Wrong team favored here! Take the Braves. |
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03-31-18 | White Sox -103 v. Royals | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Take the Chicago White Sox (#927) The betting markets know what’s going on here; hence the heavy $$ towards the White Sox in each of the first two games of this series. KC is a mess, a ‘bet-against’ team right from the get-go after suffering major offseason losses – a lineup that lacks potency and a once reliable bullpen that can’t be relied on to get crucial outs. The White Sox lineup has a rock solid track record against Ian Kennedy in recent seasons – he went 0-2 against Chicago last year with a 7.65 ERA in four starts against them. Meanwhile, prized prospect Lucas Giolito is coming off a truly dominant spring training; a bet-on’ hurler from the get-go of this young MLB season. Take the White Sox. |
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03-31-18 | Indians v. Mariners +105 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Seattle (#922) The Indians lineup is stacked with lefties, bad news against Mariners ace James Paxton who held lefties to a .198 batting average without a single home run last year! Paxton has been ‘lights out’ at Safeco Field, including back-2-back shutouts at home against the Astros and Rangers to open the season last year. The Indians normally reliable bullpen hasn’t been used at all in nearly a week – Kluber threw a complete game on opening day and they were off yesterday, potentially opening a crack for some late inning vulnerability. And while Carlos Carrasco is a legit ace, the Mariners have faced him four times over the last two seasons, beating him twice. Take the Mariners. |
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03-30-18 | Phillies v. Braves -105 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#954) Philly was most assuredly a ‘hot’ team for wiseguys this spring, with the Phillies taking $$ on their season win total Over and in each of their first two ballgames of the season. I’m not buying that the Phillies merit this pick ‘em price on the road following yesterday’s bullpen meltdown, when four of the five relievers that Gabe Kapler put into the game allowed at least one run. Today’s starter, Nick Pivetta, allowed at least one walk and one home run in each of his first four spring training starts and he had a 6.65 ERA on the highway last year. The Braves swung hot bats yesterday, and Mike Foltynewicz dominated this Phillies lineup twice at home last year: 8 hits and 1 run allowed in 14 innings of work. The Braves deserve to be the chalk here! Take the Braves. |
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03-29-18 | Astros -164 v. Rangers | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#917) From all indications, the defending World Series champs are primed to be every bit as good in 2018, and there’s no reason to expect any sort of hangover. Dallas Keuchel: “We’re not the Cubs.” Houston merits this price tag, particularly with Justin Verlander’s long history of strong opening day starts working in their favor. Meanwhile, the Rangers 8-22 Spring Training – worst in the majors – is meaningful in the sense that this is a rebuilding team with low expectations, primed to struggle from Day 1 of the regular season. Chalk worth laying! Take the Astros |
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03-29-18 | Twins v. Orioles -120 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#916) I’ve got the Minnesota Twins ranked near the top of my ‘overvalued commodity’ list coming into the season. Jake Odorizzi is vulnerable to the gopher ball, with a poor track record against the Orioles lineup from his years in Tampa. The Orioles lineup was pounding homers in bunches throughout Spring Training and Dylan Bundy closed out the 2017 campaign with ten quality starts in his final eleven tries. The markets have no respect for Baltimore whatsoever, offering us legitimate value to support the Orioles as short home favorites. Take the Orioles. |
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10-31-17 | Astros +110 v. Dodgers | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#911) You can break down the stats any way you want to. For wagering purposes for this bettor, Game 6 of the World Series comes down to two basic factors. First, I want my $$ ON Justin Verlander in a potential Series clinching game. Second, I cannot fathom how the Dodgers are going to bounce back here after their disastrous Game 5 defeat, especially considering that one of their biggest strengths coming into the series – their bullpen – is now an area of weakness. The Astros are 10-0 in Verlander’s ten appearances since he was acquired from Detroit. Verlander, like all the pitchers in this series, was negatively affected by the ‘slick’ baseballs in play in his Game 2 start, giving up a pair of home runs. Then again, those were the only two hits that the Dodgers got in six innings against him. This is a statement game for a future Hall of Famer who has proven his mettle many times in spots like this one, and I want my money on him, not against him, given that Astros 10-0 mark in his outings. The Dodgers came into the World Series riding the longest streak of scoreless innings from their bullpen in postseason history. That was then, this is now. Closer Kenley Janson has allowed runs in his last three appearances. Brandon Morrow gave up three extra base hits all year, then gave up three in six pitches in Game 5, finally running out of gas. That’s particularly bad news considering that Rich Hill hasn’t reached 80 pitches in a start since September. Dave Roberts did just about everything right for this season for the Dodgers, but he’s mismanaged his pitching staff in this series, and it’s cost LA. I’ll take this quote from Astros Manager AJ Hinch as a ‘bet-on’ quote for the underdog Astros:“I don’t have a scripted way of getting our 27 outs. We have some strengths that we can feel we can exploit, some matchups that we want…..I’m going to proceed to just trying to win Game 6, and if that means I have to use guys in a unique way, that’s fine. If the game warrants any decision to try to win the game, I think you have to try to win the game that you’re playing that day and not concern yourself with a lot of the unknowns.” Take the Astros. |
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10-27-17 | Dodgers +105 v. Astros | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 58 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#905) My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting Yu Darvish in the first round of the playoffs, a 3-1 LA win at Arizona. My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting Darvish in the NLCS as well, LA’s 6-1 at Wrigley Field in Chicago. And I have absolutely no hesitation supporting Darvish at a plus price in Game 3 of the World Series at Houston. Yu Darvish has essentially been unhittable down the stretch. In his last five starts, Darvish has allowed a grand total of two runs over 30.2 innings of work, striking out 35 batters while allowing only 17 hits and two walks. Darvish has proven his mettle in hostile road environments. He’s proven his mettle in big games. And Darvish has owned this Astros lineup. He threw seven innings of one hit ball right here at Minute Maid Park back in June. And, over a significant 163 at-bat sample size, current Astros have hit just .190 against Darvish, with a .537 OPS. LA’s bullpen behind him finally had an off night on Wednesday, but it’s been an elite pen all year and I’m not anticipating any residual effects. The Astros have lost two of Lance McCullers three postseason starts, and he lasted only four innings in the closeout game against the Yankees. Houston’s bullpen behind McCullers hasn’t been as effective as the Dodgers pen, and the Astros were moneylosers at home during the regular season. The first ever World Series Game in Houston is not primed to be a winning one for the home favorite. Take the Dodgers. |
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10-24-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -167 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#902) There’s no reason to overthink this one. The Dodgers went 23-4 in Clayton Kershaw’s starts in the regular season and they’ve gone 3-0 in the playoffs for their ace. Last year, LA went 17-4 in Kershaw’s 21 regular season starts and 4-1 in his postseason outings. And LA closed out 2015 with an 8-2 mark in Kershaw’s final ten starts (including the playoffs). Add it all up and we’re talking about a team that has gone 55-11 in their ace’s last 66 starts, including an 8-2 mark in the postseason. Yet the price is very reasonable to support Kershaw this evening. And It’s surely worth noting how dominant the Dodgers bullpen has been, entering the World Series with an MLB record 23 consecutive scoreless innings in the postseason. Dallas Keuchel has a career home/road dichotomy that hasn’t gone away, even as he’s developed into an elite ace. For his career, Keuchel has a losing record on the highway, with an ERA more than a run and a half higher than it’s been at home. Those numbers stayed consistent this season: 2.26 at home; 3.53 on the road. Keuchel was dominant in both home playoff starts, but he failed to make it out of the 5th inning of his lone road start at Yankee Stadium, leaving the game with a 4-0 deficit. I trust LA’s lineup more. I trust Clayton Kershaw on regular rest. I like this Kershaw quote, talking about the heat: “Yeah, it is going to be hot. But, no, I don't think it's going to change anything. I think by 5 o'clock, the sun will be down…..I'm from Texas. It's going to be hot for everybody. We're all used to it.'' And I trust the Dodgers bullpen to close the game out. Reasonable price to lay, given the circumstances….. Take the Dodgers. |
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10-21-17 | Yankees v. Astros -127 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Take the Houston Astros (#918) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet on a very busy sports Saturday. Starting pitching matchups don’t factor much into my Game 7 opinions in MLB Playoff action. Instead, I want my money on the better team, plain and simple, especially when the superior squad has positive momentum. Houston is the better of these two teams – ten wins better in the regular season -- particularly when it comes to their ability to hit quality pitching. New York has been held to one run or less four times in their six road playoff games. Houston has scored 27 runs in five home playoffs games; pounding out seven or more on three separate occasions. I trust the Astros to come through with a clutch hit more than the Yankees this evening. And yesterday’s bounceback effort from Justin Verlander really matters in a matchup of two relatively young squads. Houston has faced the abyss – dealing with their Game 4 meltdown and a 3-2 series deficit – and they’ve proven they can respond in positive fashion. The Bronx Bombers rallied back from 2-0 down against the Tribe, but their miracle postseason run ends tonight. Take the Astros. |
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10-18-17 | Dodgers +102 v. Cubs | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#967) Let me start with a brief excerpt from yesterday’s write-up supporting the Dodgers in their comfortable Game 3 win at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “The Dodgers have no business as underdogs tonight facing off against the ice cold Cubs lineup. Last year, on their way to the World Series title, the Cubs got key, clutch hits throughout their playoff run. That hasn’t happened yet in this series, with Chicago notching just 15 hits in the first three games of the series, hitting .160 as a team. In fact, the Cubs have just 20 baserunners for the series, compared to their 32 strikeouts. And these current struggles come on the heels of an NLDS in which the Cubs were held to three runs or less in four of the five games.” “Let’s not forget about this bullpen mismatch either. Given the continued struggles for the Cubs bullpen, a tight game late works much better for the LA side of the equation than the Chicago side of the equation. LA hasn’t lost yet in the postseason, a perfect 6-0 here in the playoffs; an emerging trend worth backing again tonight.” Not much has changed between Game 3 and Game 4 except that the Cubs have a weaker starting pitcher tonight and their hope for yet another series comeback has essentially been squashed, facing a 3-0 series deficit against the best team in baseball. This Dodgers squad is locked in at the plate, dominant out of the bullpen and fully cognizant of the fact that they need to stick a stake in the Cubs heart tonight. Dave Roberts is making every right move, something that Joe Maddon isn’t doing this year. And the starting pitching matchup – like the bullpen matchup and the lineup matchup – works in the Dodgers favor. I know that Alex Wood hasn’t pitched since September. I also know that Wood went 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA this season, the best #4 starter in baseball. LA’s bullpen behind him can carry the load if he falters. That’s not the case for the struggling Cubs pen behind the ineffective Jake Arrieta. Arrieta has only made four starts since the beginning of September and none of them have been pretty. He needed 90 pitches to labor through four innings in the NLDS against the Nationals, walking five batters in a game where he was VERY lucky that the wind was blowing in. The wind is blowing OUT to left center tonight! Expect the Cubs season to end tonight. Take the Dodgers. |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers +105 v. Cubs | 6-1 | Win | 105 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Take the LA Dodgers (#963) The Dodgers have no business as underdogs tonight with Yu Darvish on the mound facing off against the ice cold Cubs lineup. Last year, on their way to the World Series title, the Cubs got key, clutch hits throughout their playoff run. That hasn’t happened yet in this series, with Chicago notching just seven hits in the first two games of the series, hitting .117 as a team. And these current struggles come on the heels of an NLDS in which the Cubs were held to three runs or less in four of the five games. Meanwhile, Yu Darvish has essentially been unhittable down the stretch. In his last four starts, Darvish has an 0.74 ERA, striking out 28 batters while allowing only 11 hits and walks combined. Current Cubs have hit just .195 against Darvish in their careers. And the Dodgers fully rested bullpen behind him is ‘bet-on’ all the way, retiring 15 consecutive batters to close out Game 1 and 12 of 13 batters to close out Game 2. I understand that Kyle Hendricks was dominant in his Game 1 win against the Nats in the Chicago’s first round playoff series, although he did get roughed up in his second start of that series. And I understand that Hendricks was the starter who closed out the Dodgers last year, a dominant 7.1 inning 2 hit, 0 run effort. But this Dodgers lineup is as potent as any in baseball, and Hendricks is no threat to pitch a complete game shutout – he lasted past the seventh only once all year. Let’s not forget about this bullpen mismatch either. Given the continued struggles for the Cubs bullpen, a tight game late works much better for the LA side of the equation than the Chicago side of the equation. LA hasn’t lost yet in the postseason, a perfect 5-0 here in the playoffs; an emerging trend worth backing tonight. Take the Dodgers. |
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10-12-17 | Cubs -105 v. Nationals | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Take the Chicago Cubs (#959) I have no hesitation supporting Kyle Hendricks and the Chicago Cubs in a pick ‘em price range against the Nationals in Game 5 tonight. We’ve seen this show before. Chicago was down 2-1 in LA against the Dodgers last year before they rallied back to win the next three. We saw the Cubs facing elimination against the Indians, facing a 3-1 series deficit before they won the final three games of the World Series, with the final two wins coming on the Indians home field. Meanwhile, the Nationals got eliminated in Game 5 at home last year to the LA Dodgers, going 0-2 in potential closeout contests. They lost both home games while failing to get out of the NLDS in their previous playoff appearance in 2014 and lost a pair of home playoff games (including Game 5) in the first round against St Louis prior to that. Obviously, this year’s teams are different from those from recent seasons. Dusty Baker and Joe Maddon, however, are not. In an elimination game, with every managerial decision magnified, Maddon’s edge over Baker is a significant one. The markets have made a big move towards the Nats today, offering us a chance to back the superior, more confident team in a pick ‘em price range. I understand the move stems from the fact that Baker is likely to use Matt Scherzer out of the bullpen if necessary today. But I also understand that Scherzer coming out of the bullpen on short rest is not the same as Scherzer, rested and ready as the starter. The Nationals were significant money losers at home during the regular season and they’re lucky not to be 0-2 on this field here in the playoffs. That’s a trend worth riding again here…. Take the Cubs. |
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10-09-17 | Dodgers -110 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the LA Dodgers (#907) My clients and I bet against Zack Greinke last week, at home, in the Diamondbacks ‘play-in’ game against Colorado Yes, Arizona won the game, but it certainly wasn’t because Greinke pitched well! And both Greinke and the D-backs are prime ‘fade’ material once again tonight! Greinke ran out of gas down the stretch, hit hard in each of his final two regular season starts, unable to last past the fourth inning against KC and Miami in those last two outings. Then, against the Rockies, pitching with a 6-0 lead, Greinke again couldn’t get the job done, knocked out of the box after allowing four runs in the fourth. Zack Greinke is coming with an ‘ace’ level reputation right now – hence the cheap price to support the Dodgers tonight – but he’s not pitching at that level (or with that level of confidence) at this late stage of the campaign. Arizona did just about everything right on the offensive side in LA over the weekend. The Dbacks smashed six home runs and went Over their team total in both contests. It didn’t matter; not the way LA is hitting right now. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, talking about their offensive approach right now: “We'll homer when a pitcher makes a mistake. But to spoil pitches and to grind, that's when I think we're at our best. It's that team offense concept. We've got a lot of good players and a lot of good depth. There are so many guys in our lineup that can hurt you. Pass it to the next guy. Have that good at-bat. We can stress the pitcher early, get the pitch count up, get into the 'pen. Putting the ball in play, not punching, taking the walk. We've done that the first two games and we put some runs on the board.” And that, folks, is the optimal strategy for beating Greinke! Greinke’s quote: “They wait for a pitch to hit and that's an ideal way of hitting. If you get it, you hit it as hard as you can. If it's not a pitch to hit, they take it. I mean, it's pretty simple, but it's harder to do than it sounds like." It’s surely worth noting that Greinke was 13-1 at home this year, but the ‘1’ was a loss to these same Dodgers. Behind Greinke, Arizona’s bullpen has been hit hard over the last week, and closer Fernando Rodney cannot be trusted in big game situations against elite lineups. Yu Darvish is ‘bet-on’ all the way, coming off three dominant outings to close out the regular season, allowing just nine hits and one earned run in 19.1 innings of work. The bullpen behind him finished with the best ERA in the National League. And the urgency to close out the series tonight is there, a team still looking to wipe away the stink from their ugly September. Put it all together and this near pick ‘em price range looks a good notch or two (or three!) too cheap! Big Ticket: Take the Dodgers. |
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10-05-17 | Red Sox v. Astros -117 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#936) I understand how good Chris Sale was this year, and so do the betting markets. Sale was priced at -150 or higher in 30 or his 32 starts. He was in a near pick’ em price range only twice. And this will be the first time Sale has been an underdog all season….deservedly so! In Sale’s first 24 starts this season, he went 14-4 with a 2.51 ERA. Over the final quartile of the campaign, in his last eight starts, Sale went 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA, allowing home runs in bunches. This isn’t new or different from a veteran hurler with a long track record of wearing down late in the season, with a September/October lifetime ERA more than a full run higher than his numbers in May, June or July. Sale was hit hard five times in those last eight trips to the hill, and he’s facing an Astros lineup that mashes lefties, #2 in OPS against southpaws this season. That lineup was on fire for an extended stretch of September, and it was good enough to carry the Astros to three wins in four games against the Red Sox at Fenway last weekend. Justin Verlander is a proven postseason performer, with 16 career playoff starts and a 3.39 ERA to show for it. And Verlander has been nothing short of brilliant down the stretch: a 1.95 ERA in 15 starts since the All Star Break and a 1.06 ERA in his five starts with the Astros. It’s surely worth noting that the Astros are 5-0 in those starts. And it’s also worth noting that Verlander has faced Boston twice already this year, allowing just three earned runs in 12 innings of work. This is a cheap price to lay, even with Chris Sale on the hill for Boston. Take the Astros. |
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10-04-17 | Rockies +164 v. Diamondbacks | 8-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#933) My clients and I cashed in backing Jon Gray in his last start in Arizona against the D-backs in September. We cashed in the previous night as well, betting AGAINST Zack Greinke at home, despite his gaudy home record. And there’s ample reason to believe that the Rockies are ‘live’ underdogs again tonight with Gray matched up against Greinke this evening. Zack Greinke ran out of gas down the stretch, hit hard in each of his final two starts before getting shut down. His track record against Colorado is mediocre, with Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story and Jonathan Lucroy all enjoying success against Greinke. Arizona’s biggest bat, MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt comes into the postseason in the midst of an 0-17 slump while still dealing with the aftereffects of late season elbow trouble. And if you trust Fernando Rodney to close out a playoff game without trouble…well, let’s just say that you’re more confident in the Arizona bullpen than I am. Jon Gray was as good as any starter in MLB down the stretch. Over his last five starts, Gray went 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA, striking out 33 batters while allowing only 28 hits and walks combined. Gray has allowed three runs or less in 13 consecutive outings since allowing four runs in his first start back from the All Star Break. Gray’s advanced metrics show that he’s a legitimately undervalued commodity; an emerging young ace primed to shine on the national stage tonight. Take the Rockies. |
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09-27-17 | Cubs -106 v. Cardinals | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Take the Chicago Cubs (#911) Here’s the quote from Cubs manager Joe Maddon following Chicago’s blowout win in St Louis on Monday: “We're definitely arriving at the same mental level we've had the last two seasons. The guys have been there, done that. They know what it's about.” That’s a pretty strong ‘bet-on’ quote, in this bettor’s opinion. The Cubs trailed by four runs after the second inning last night following a rough outing from Jake Arrieta, and were down by five heading into the eighth. They rallied back, cutting the lead to one, with the tying and go-ahead runs on base before a Javier Baez strikeout ended their night. Maddon, after the game, once again told us that he’s got a ‘bet-on’ team right now: “I loved the comeback. I loved the energy. We continued to battle all the way through ... there were a lot of positives." Chicago’s lineup is clicking on all cylinders right now, bad news for Cardinals starter Michael Wacha. Chicago has pounded out 93 runs during an 11-3 hot streak over the past two weeks, averaging more than 6.5 runs per game during that span. Wacha has a terrible track record against Chicago, with current Cubs hitting .317 against him with a .991 OPS in a decent sample size of 139 at bats. Wacha has been hit hard in all three previous starts against Chicago this year, with a 7.88 ERA, and the Cards went 0-3 in those ballgames. John Lackey loves pitching in St Louis: 13-4 with a 2.10 ERA in 25 career starts at Busch Stadium. Current Cardinals are hitting just .221 against him with a .597 OPS. The Cubs are 3-0 in his starts against St Louis this year. And there’s no comparison between the two bullpens behind the starters tonight, with Chicago having a clear edge. Throw in the fact that Cards catcher Yadier Molina is expected to sit tonight and the case for Chicago in this pick ‘em price range is perfectly clear. Take the Cubs. |
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09-26-17 | Mariners v. A's +119 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Oakland (#978) Seattle was a Wild Card contender for most of the season. Oakland was not. That’s about the only reason I can see why the markets have tilted towards the Mariners as road chalk this evening. Given the current form of the two starters and the current form of the two lineups, Seattle has no business being favored in this ballgame. The betting markets went nuts for James Paxton in June, when he finally started living up to his enormous potential, putting together an impressive streak. At one point, Paxton had eight straight quality starts, striking out 62 batters in 52 innings while allowing only 33 hits during that entire span. Seattle went 7-1 in that eight start stretch and Paxton took wiseguy money in every one of those games. That was then; this is now. Paxton went on the DL in mid-August and hasn’t looked right in two starts since his return, lasting a COMBINED total of five innings in those two games. Seattle’s bullpen behind him leads the majors in blown saves. The Mariners are slumping down the stretch, just 2-8 in their last ten ballgames, even after a win last night. Their lineup is cold, held to two runs or less in half of their last ten games. This is not a ‘bet-on’ team or a ‘bet-on’ hurler by any stretch of the imagination. The A’s are a last place squad, true. But Oakland, very quietly, waaaaaaaay under-the-radar, is 14-4 in their last 18 ballgames. Their lineup has been clicking, their bullpen outstanding. And tonight’s starter, nasty young lefty Daniel Mengden, has pitched like an ace since his September callup: three starts, three wins for Oakland; while allowing only three runs and 14 hits in 22 innings of work. Momentum and matchups both work for the ‘live’ home dog here! Take the A’s. |
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09-18-17 | Twins +142 v. Yankees | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#961) No team in MLB has been better in the road underdog role than the Minnesota Twins this year. The Twins are ranked #2 in road profitability overall; only half a unit behind the ‘often road chalk’ Nationals. Starter Erwin Santana has been a huge part of that success, 9-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 14 previous road tilts. The Twins are 7-2 in his nine starts since the beginning of August, with Santana coming off a STRONG six inning, three hit shutout effort in his last outing; a ‘bet-on’ hurler in this big dog price range. And he’s the type of savvy veteran hurler I have no issues supporting at Yankee Stadium in the midst of a pennant race. Yankees hurler Jamie Garcia hasn’t finished the sixth inning in any of his six starts since joining the team. His 24-17 strikeout to walk ratio with this Yanks isn’t exactly ‘bet-on’ either; a veteran hurler who doesn’t seem to have much left in the tank these days. It’s surely worth noting that the Yankees have at least one set of back-2-back losses on every homestand since the beginning of August, and they’re coming off a bad loss to the previously slumping Orioles yesterday. ‘Live dog’ here! Take the Twins. |
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09-15-17 | White Sox +103 v. Tigers | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Take the Chicago White Sox (#919) To call the Detroit Tigers a ‘dead’ team right now would not be any sort of overstatement. A team that started the season with World Series dreams is now a bottom feeder, just playing out the string. The Tigers have watched Justin Verlander shine with the Astros and JD Martinez shine with the D-backs, just two of the many talented veterans they have traded away over the past two months. Detroit lost at home by ten runs to these same White Sox last night; outscored 48-16 during their current six game skid, now 2-12 here in September. This team cannot be the betting favorite over anyone right now, period! The White Sox have been a dead team for the better part of the last two months as well. But the bevy of September callups has given this team a real boost, no surprise given the depth and strength of their farm system. All of a sudden, this ‘dead’ team has won five of their last six, outscoring foes 57-19 during that span – four of the wins came by seven runs or more. Chicago just won a road series at playoff contending Kansas City, primed to keep rolling against Anibal Sanchez and his 9.24 ERA since the All Star Break. Take the White Sox |
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09-14-17 | Braves +162 v. Nationals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#955) The Nationals clinched the NL East title with a win on Sunday as well as a Miami Marlins loss. Despite the Dodgers slide, Washington isn’t going to catch up to LA to earn home field advantage in the playoffs. They’ve got a 20 game lead in the division. This is recess time for the Nats, and they’ve certainly played like it over the past two nights, losing the first two games of this series by a combined 16-2 margin, despite the fact that they were -170 and -310 chalk in those two ballgames! The Nats had a losing record down the stretch last year, and they lost half a dozen September games at -150 or higher. They had a losing record down the stretch in 2015, suffering seven losses as favorites over the final 2 ½ weeks of the campaign. So what should we expect that’s different under Dusty Baker this year? Absolutely nothing! Washington is LA right now, a team with gaudy full season stats and records, but not a squad primed to play at that same level here in September; an easy squad to fade in this price range. The Braves haven’t quit, winners of three straight and just a game and a half out of second place right now! Their lineup is clicking, off back-2-back eight run outbursts. Starter Mike Foltynewicz has allowed only six runs in his last three starts combined, despite facing the Cubs and Rockies potent lineups during that span. And it’s surely worth noting that Foltynewicz threw a gem in his last start on this field back in July; on the right side of a 5-2 Atlanta victory. Live dog here! Take the Braves. |
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09-12-17 | Rockies +117 v. Diamondbacks | 4-2 | Win | 117 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#961) My clients and I cashed a ‘big dog’ bet on the Rockies last night, and we have every reason to think that Colorado is worthy of a wager once again this evening as they continue their series against the Diamondbacks. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “Arizona was as hot as any team in baseball – even the Cleveland Indians – when they won 13 straight games, including two sweeps of the Dodgers and one over the Rockies in Colorado. All streaks eventually come to an end, which happened to Arizona this past weekend when they lost two out of three to San Diego. But the markets don’t immediately react; still buoyed by the recent betting attention that squad has gotten, despite the fact that they’re not red hot anymore. “Colorado, on the other hand, is red hot. The Rockies went through a nasty skid; 8-17 over a 25 game span through most of August and into September, resulting in a major betting market adjustment. That was then, this is now! The Rockies have come out of their skid clicking on all cylinders; coming off a four game sweep in LA, now with seven wins in their last eight overall. Bud Black’s lineup is hot, pounding out 33 runs on their current five game winning streak.” Rockies infielder DJ LeMahieu, following last night’s win:"I think these last couple of wins have been really good for us. We kind of got it handed to us for a week or two but battled back and have won some really close games on the road. We just need to keep it going." D-backs starter Taijuan Walker has been on a tear, coming off four consecutive strong showings. But Walker has lacked consistency throughout his big league career, and his track record against Colorado isn’t particularly good, with current Rockies owning a .280 batting average and .840 OPS against him in more than 100 career at bats. Meanwhile, Colorado starter Jon Gray is ‘bet-on’ all the way right now, having allowed three runs or less in every start since his first one after the All Star Break. Live dog here! Take the Rockies. |
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09-11-17 | Rockies +180 v. Diamondbacks | 5-4 | Win | 180 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#903) Arizona was as hot as any team in baseball – even the Cleveland Indians – when they won 13 straight games, including two sweeps of the Dodgers and one over the Dbacks in Colorado. All streaks eventually come to an end, which happened to Arizona this past weekend when they lost two out of three to San Diego. But the markets don’t immediately react; still buoyed by the recent betting attention that squad has gotten. That explains why Arizona is 2:1 chalk tonight, despite the fact that they’re not red hot anymore. Colorado, on the other hand, is red hot. The Rockies went through a nasty skid; 8-17 over a 25 game span through most of August and into September, resulting in a major betting market adjustment. That was then, this is now! The Rockies have come out of their skid clicking on all cylinders; coming off a four game sweep in LA, now with six wins in their last seven overall. Bud Black’s bullpen is rested and ready, and his lineup is hot, pounding out 28 runs in their dominant, confidence inducing sweep against the Dodgers. Yes, this game has a starting pitching mismatch, with Zack Greinke going for Arizona against Kyle Freeland for Colorado. But Arizona averages a run less per nine innings against opposing southpaws compared to righties and Freeland threw a six inning, one run gem in his lone previous start on this field this year. Meanwhile, the Rockies have hit six homers against Greinke in the three games he’s started against them this season, and they just destroyed one Dodgers ace after the next this past weekend. Live dog here! Take the Rockies. |
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09-08-17 | Twins -112 v. Royals | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#973) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting Minnesota yesterday, BEFORE they rallied in the ninth inning against struggling KC closer Kelvin Herrera last night. ‘There’s positive momentum in Minnesota again after the Twins snapped a three game skid with a win in Tampa Bay yesterday. Infielder Eduardo Escobar following yesterday’s win: "We leave here with a positive mind. The offense struggled in the first two games here and we didn't hit well. Knowing that we won and the offense woke up again, I think, gives us momentum to go to Kansas City."’ The Twins have been major moneymakers on the highway all season long, ranked behind only elites Houston and Washington in road profitability. Erwin Santana has been a major reason why; 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA in 13 previous road starts; worthy of support in this near pick ‘em price range today. Meanwhile, KC starter Ian Kennedy has an ERA of 6.00 in four previous starts against the Twins this year, and an 0-7 record with a 6.71 ERA pitching at Kaufmann Stadium this year. Given the KC bullpen concerns, I have no hesitation riding Minnesota to victory once again on Friday Night. Take the Twins. |
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09-07-17 | Twins -109 v. Royals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#915) It’s been a crazy week for KC emergency fill-in starter Sam Gaviglio. He was in Vegas with the Mariners AAA affiliate for a weekend series with the Las Vegas 51’s when he was suddenly picked up off the waiver wire by the Royals, brought up to the big leagues and told to prepare for a start against the Twins today. Gaviglio is no ace in the making. The 27 year old made 11 starts in Seattle earlier this season before getting sent back down to the minors. One of those starts came against the Twins lineup he’ll see again today. He allowed three home runs in 5.1 innings of work in that contest. KC manager Ned Yost isn’t looking for miracles: "We liked his ability to throw strikes. He's a ground-ball guy who works down in the zone…..If he can get us through the fifth and into the sixth, it would be a great job." That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. There’s positive momentum in Minnesota again after the Twins snapped a three game skid with a win in Tampa Bay yesterday. Infielder Eduardo Escobar following yesterday’s win: "We leave here with a positive mind. The offense struggled in the first two games here and we didn't hit well. Knowing that we won and the offense woke up again, I think, gives us momentum to go to Kansas City." The Twins have been major moneymakers on the highway all season long, ranked behind only elites Houston and Washington in road profitability. Starter Kyle Gibson certainly falls into that grouping as well, with an ERA more than a full run lower on the highway than it’s been at home. The Twins have won all three of his previous starts against the Royals this season; primed to do it again tonight! Take the Twins. |
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09-05-17 | Diamondbacks +115 v. Dodgers | 3-1 | Win | 115 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#911) My clients and I cashed a $2 underdog winner betting against the Dodgers on Sunday, and there’s absolutely no reason to think that LA is going to snap their skid tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from my last anti-Dodgers write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The betting markets don’t seem to be adjusting enough to factor in the Dodgers mentality here in September. And with LA suffering through their first slump since April, it’s not hard to make a case for betting AGAINST Dave Roberts squad. “Multiple reports out of LA have the Dodgers far more concerned with getting their guys healthy for the postseason than in setting any kind of wins record. This is a brutal scheduling stretch – 17 games in 16 days, starting with Saturday’s doubleheader. Roberts is insistent that he’s going to get his young guys ample playing time in an effort to determine who can help in the postseason. Everybody is on a pitch count; anybody with a bruise will be sitting out. Roberts has made it very clear – the next couple of weeks are for getting everybody healthy and assessing the postseason roster, the final two weeks are for getting them ‘sharp’.” No surprise, then, that the Dodgers have lost nine of their last ten despite being favored in every contest. They’ve been held to two runs or less six times during that span. And it certainly won’t get any easier for this slumping lineup tonight against Zack Greinke, who mowed down this lineup in Arizona last week, his second consecutive quality start against LA since the All Star Break. Arizona is the hottest team in baseball, winners of twelve straight. JD Martinez off his four home run performance last night: “I think everyone is on a positive vibe right now. Everyone feels good. Everyone is excited to come to the ballpark….I think Archie (Bradley) said it best today, he comes in and said he walks by the training room and guys are getting exercise and getting work in and you walk by the weight room and it's packed. Everyone's getting work in. You come in the clubhouse and no one is in here. It shows the vibe and what everyone is thinking about right now. Everyone wants to do well, and everyone wants to run away with this thing." Arizona blasted Hyun-Jin Ryu in Arizona last week, his single worst outing of the season. No surprise if the D-backs do it again tonight in a classic ‘ride the hot & fade the cold’ setting. Take the Diamondbacks. |
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09-03-17 | Dodgers v. Padres +205 | 4-6 | Win | 205 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Take San Diego (#912) The betting markets don’t seem to be adjusting enough to factor in the Dodgers mentality here in September. And with LA suffering through their first slump since April, it’s not hard to make a case for betting AGAINST Dave Roberts squad in this inflated price range on Sunday. Multiple reports out of LA have the Dodgers far more concerned with getting their guys healthy for the postseason than in setting any kind of wins record. This is a brutal scheduling stretch – 17 games in 16 days, starting with yesterday’s doubleheader. Roberts is insistent that he’s going to get his young guys ample playing time in an effort to determine who can help in the postseason. Everybody is on a pitch count; anybody with a bruise will be sitting out. Roberts has made it very clear – the next couple of weeks are for getting everybody healthy and assessing the postseason roster, the final two weeks are for getting them ‘sharp’. No surprise, then, that the Dodgers have lost seven of their last eight despite being favored in every contest. They’ve been held to two runs or less five times during that span, and lost three times as favorites of near -200 or higher. I understand Alex Wood is having a remarkable season. I also understand that Wood just spent ten days on the DL and won’t be eating up innings here. San Diego has some rare positive momentum, winners of four of their last five on this homestand following yesterday’s sweep and 13 of their last 20 at Petco. The Padres bats are heating up, pounding out five runs or more in all of their wins on the current homestand. Starter Jhoulys Chacin has been dynamite in San Diego all year: 7-3 with a .185 ERA and a 180 batting average against. In three starts against the Dodgers since an ugly outing to open the season, Chacin has allowed a grand total of two runs. Live dog here! Take the Padres. |
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08-30-17 | Mets v. Reds -131 | 2-0 | Loss | -131 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#908) The Mets are pretty hopeless these days, just 10-23 in their last 33 ballgames, 4-12 in their las 16. They traded away most of the healthy productive veterans that they had at the trading deadline. And with the likes of Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto and David Wright still languishing on the DL, this is not a particularly potent lineup these days, to put it mildly. Jose Reyes played left field for the first time in his career last night, misplaying a fly ball that resulted in a Billy Hamilton double last night. Expect manager Terry Collins to continue playing around with his lineup this evening. The Mets pitching staff is in even worse shape. Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Stephen Matz and Zack Wheeler are all on the DL, which has led to Rafael Montero being a starter. Montero isn’t 2-9 by accident. The Mets needed him to come out of the bullpen on Sunday, taking away his normal rest and rhythm. And it’s surely worth noting that Montero got only one out in the four batters he faced in that game. Behind him, the Mets bullpen is in tatters after allowing another seven runs last night – none of their last four starters has made it through the fifth inning. Cinci came into this series with a real chip on their collective shoulders, having lost a whopping 14 consecutive games against the Mets dating back to 2014 including eight straight at home. That streak ended with a resounding ‘thud’ last night, and there’s little reason to think that the Mets will start a new streak today. Cinci’s Homer Bailey was pulled after allowing only one hit in three innings against the Cubs in his last start, dealing with a shoulder issue. He’s had two extra days off prior to this start, and he sounds ready, talking about the final month of the season: “I want to finish this thing up right.“ Bailey has had six truly awful starts this year, allowing six runs or more in all of those games – hence his truly ugly 7.99 ERA. But he’s also been light’s out more often than not, allowing two runs or less in six of his last nine trips to the hill. With extra rest, facing a weak lineup, I’m expecting the ‘good’ Bailey tonight. Take the Reds. |
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08-29-17 | Cardinals -124 v. Brewers | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#957) The Brewers haven’t won a season series against St Louis since 2011. I don’t expect that to change here in 2017. The Cardinals enter this series 2.5 games back of Milwaukee in the Wild Card race, despite suffering through a rough week last week when their bats went cold, losing six out of eight. But they sure seem focused for this one after a much needed off day on Monday. Cardinals manager Mike Matheny: “We have to continue to push and think this is the most important game of the year. We can't be more urgent than that. If you're playing this one like it is the game, the one that's deciding for our club, and if you truly go about it with your preparation, your concentration and your intensity, there's not another level." The Brewers are a tad bit ‘fat & happy’ coming off a series win against the Dodgers and a successful West Coast road trip. But they’re not hitting right now either, held to 3, 3, 1, 2, 4 and 0 runs in their last six ballgames. That’s bad news against St Louis phenom Luke Weaver, coming off his most dominant big league start yet: seven innings of shutout ball with 10 strikeouts and only four baserunners allowed. Weaver has mowed down the Brewers twice already in his young career: two quality starts, 16 K’s vs. only three runs allowed. Current Brewers have hit just .163 against him with a .518 OPS. Matt Garza doesn’t have that same kind of track record against the Cardinals, although he did shut them down earlier this month. Garza’s previous start against St Louis wasn’t pretty; the Brewers aren’t winning behind him (2-5 in his starts since the All Star Break) and Garza isn’t eating up innings, failing to make it out of the sixth in each of those seven previous post-break starts. The wiseguys have been pounding St Louis in early betting action for good reason! Take the Cardinals. |
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08-28-17 | Red Sox +108 v. Blue Jays | 6-5 | Win | 108 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#913) The money has been flowing on Toronto in early betting action for Monday, turning the Blue Jays from underdogs into favorites. At a ‘plus price’ return, the Red Sox are a clear choice for this bettor tonight! The Red Sox have owned the Blue Jays all season, including a 5-1 mark against Toronto right here at the Rogers Centre. Starter Drew Pomeranz has been a big part of the equation, allowing only one earned run in 12.1 innings of work against Toronto while beating them in both previous starts. Current Blue Jays have hit just .179 with an OPS of just .546 against Pomeranz in their careers. Behind him, the Red Sox bullpen is in decent shape following extended outings from Doug Fister and Eduardo Rodriguez over the past two days. The last place Blue Jays aren’t making any late season surge, just 2-7 in their last nine ballgames. Their bullpen is shattered, a team that has allowed six runs or more seven times during that nine game slump. Their lineup is cold, held to two runs or less three times in their last four ballgames. And starter Marcus Stroman has allowed 16 hits and nine runs in just 11.1 innings of work against the Red Sox this season. Stroman has been pitching at full intensity since the World Baseball Classic back in early March; showing signs of wearing down over the hot summer months. Wrong team favored here! Take the Red Sox. |
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08-25-17 | Rockies +108 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#959) The Braves came out of the All Star Break by sweeping Arizona at home. Since that series sweep six weeks ago, Atlanta’s homefield edge has been non-existent. The Braves are just 2-4 on their current homestand, losing series to the sub .500 Reds and the sub .500 Mariners. And they are just 5-12 in their last 17 at brand new Sun Trust Park. Julio Teheran is the poster child for poor results at home. The numbers don’t lie. Teheran beat the Padres in his first home start of the season. Since that time, Teheran is 0-9 with an ERA above 7.00 when pitching in Atlanta; simply unable to put it together on this field. It’s not like the Braves are winning for him anywhere. Atlanta is just 1-6 in Teheran’s last seven trips to the hill. The bullpen behind him ranks #13 out of 15 NL teams in ERA this season, always capable of a late inning meltdown. The Rockies have weathered some tough times in recent weeks, just 5-11 in their last 16 games. But the Rockies got a much needed win in KC last night and I like this team’s mental makeup – there’s money to be made on Colorado in the days and weeks to come, not a team that attracts consistent wiseguy support in the betting markets. Starter Chad Bettis threw seven innings of shutout ball against the Braves two weeks ago; primed for similar success tonight. Wrong team favored here. Take the Rockies. |
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08-22-17 | Twins -117 v. White Sox | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#923) There’s no comparison between the Twins and the White Sox right now, making this relatively cheap price to support Minnesota tonight a legitimate bargain. The Twins are rolling again and swinging very hot bats. Paul Molitor’s squad has pounded out 47 runs while going 5-1 in their last six contests; 12-4 in their last 16. Veteran leader Joe Mauer after a win over Arizona this past weekend: “To have a good night against a pitcher of Greinke's caliber is definitely a confidence builder… the guys are playing really well right now." The White Sox are what they are, a tanking team in the midst of a complete rebuild struggling through the dog days of August. With just three wins in their last ten games and a 10-26 mark since the All Star Break, we’re not talking about a squad that’s brining their ‘A’ game every night, especially off a grueling doubleheader yesterday. The betting markets don’t like Kyle Gibson much; understandably so. Gibson has been unable to get out of the fifth inning in his last two starts; a long, long way from ‘ace’ level hurling. But Gibson has owned Chicago, holding current White Sox to a .197 batting average and a .554 OPS against him. And with a 1.21 ERA to go along with his 4-0 mark in four games at US Cellular Field, this is one lineup that we can expect Gibson to shut down. Prized prospect Lucas Giolito will make his ChiSox debut tonight, a guy who’s been hyped beyond belief throughout his minor league career. But there’s one problem with this prized prospect—the results haven’t equated with the talent level , even in the minors. He didn’t win a game in four starts with the Nationals last year before Washington gave up on him. And he went 6-10 with a 4.48 ERA in AAA this year, not exactly dominating. Short chalk worth laying here! Take the Twins. |
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08-21-17 | Brewers -117 v. Giants | 0-2 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#955) There’s no comparison between the Brewers and Giants these days. Milwaukee has been an overachiever all season, ranked #3 in MLB in profitability this year. They’re hot right now, winners of six of their last seven overall after taking two out of three in Colorado over the weekend. First baseman Jesus Aguilar, following yesterday’s win: “Starting the road trip with a series win is a boost of energy for the club, and it gives us a lot of confidence.” San Francisco, on the other hand, ranks dead last in MLB profitability this season by a wide margin. They’re coming off back-2-back losses as home favorites against the bottom feeder Phillies, losers of five of their last eight overall. When it comes to overall positive momentum right now, the Brewers have it and the Giants don’t, plain and simple. The betting markets have been fading Zack Davies all year, in large part because he is not a classic power pitcher, striking out fewer than six batters per nine innings on average. But Davies continues to succeed despite his lack of a strikeout pitch. He’s allowed one run or less four times in his last six starts while eating up innings, lasting into the seventh inning five times during that span and finishing the seventh four times! It’s surely worth noting his remarkable road record: 7-0 with a 2.52 ERA this year pitching away from Miller Park. While the markets are not enamored with Davies, there’s a fair bit of love for the Giants Chris Stratton, a first round pick back in 2012. Stratton is coming off his best big league start, dominating Washington last time out. However, he’s yet to put together two strong starts in a row at the big league level – that was his first career ‘quality’ start. And Stratton isn’t in any kind of rhythm – this will be only his third appearance here in August. I’m not expecting another gem tonight! Take the Brewers. |
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08-20-17 | Diamondbacks v. Twins -104 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#928) The D-backs are burning their supporters money these days, and it’s not a short term fluctuation. Arizona went into the All Star Break on a 3-8 slide. They’ve come out of the All Star Break and gone 14-20 in a 34 game span. Their bats have gone cold, producing more than six runs in a game only once all month while being held to three runs or less nine times during that span and scoring only 12 runs on the first four games of this road trip. Arizona’s pitching is faltering as well. Only one of their last five starters has recorded more than one out in the sixth inning, which means the bullpen is wearing down as well. Zack Greinke’s quote following yesterday’s loss doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence: "We haven't been playing that good for more than several weeks…..I feel like it's been a month and a half at least. It's been a while where we've played .500 ball….it would be nice to start doing better." While the D-backs are in an extended slump, the Twins are heating up right now, winners of three straight and ten of their last 13. They beat Zack Greinke last night, a real confidence boost. Veteran leader Joe Mauer: “To have a good night against a pitcher of Greinke's caliber is definitely a confidence builder… the guys are playing really well right now." From a starting pitching standpoint, the D-backs don’t hold an edge here either! Minnesota’s Bartolo Colon is no ace, but he’s thrown well of late – a complete game, followed by seven innings of shutout ball against the Brewers. Last time out, Colon allowed three solo shots and nothing else. His quote: "Obviously those three home runs were fastball. But other than that, my off speed they couldn't hit it tonight." Facing reliever TJ McFarland in a ‘bullpen’ game for Arizona (McFarland hasn’t thrown more than 58 pitches or 3.1 innings in a game this year), this is one of the rare games where Bartolo Colon may actually be the better of the two starting pitchers. Take the Twins. |
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08-19-17 | Marlins +105 v. Mets | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#953) Forget the starting pitching matchup for just one moment. Miami is playing some of their best baseball of the season right now, winning six of their last seven overall, the lone loss coming via a bullpen meltdown against the Giants on Tuesday. Their lineup is clicking, led by Giancarlo Stanton and his home run barrage here in the second half of the season. Miami’s bullpen is in good shape after getting Thursday off. Miami is only two games under .500 right now, the best record the Marlins have enjoyed since the first week of May, feeling the energy and excitement of inching their way back into the Wild Card race. Manager Don Mattingly: “Just try to keep the emphasis on trying to win series. Keep marching down the road. Obviously, we've got to get back to .500 before anything can happen. (Would) be good to be able to get there." Meanwhile, the Mets have lost five in a row, just 6-16 in their last 22 ballgames, a tanking team down the stretch. Following last night’s loss, the Mets sent Curtis Granderson to the Dodgers for ‘a player to be named later’, a true ‘salary dump. Granderson is the fifth veteran to be traded away from the Mets over the past three weeks. Mets Manager Terry Collins: “This is hard for these guys. We came in and we started spring training with tremendous expectations, and they all had them themselves, too. To all of a sudden look around and have new people everywhere, I think it's a little bit of a culture shock for some of our guys." Read between the lines here and it’s clear – even the Mets manager thinks they are a ‘bet-against’ team right now. So now, let’s get back to the starting pitching matchup. For the Mets to be chalk here, they’ve got to have a huge edge, right? Wrong! Mets starter Rafael Montero is only in the big leagues because of the devastating injuries that this pitching staff has suffered all season. Montero hasn’t won a game since June; the Mets are 1-6 in his last seven trips to the hill and he’s got a 5.85 ERA since the All Star Break, not exactly ‘bet-on’ material. Miami’s Vance Worley has led the team to a 4-0 mark in his four starts since being promoted from the bullpen. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, and his advanced metric numbers are mediocre at best – hence the lack of wiseguy support for Miami, leaving us with a classic ‘Wrong Team Favored’ scenario here! Take the Marlins. |
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08-18-17 | Cardinals -120 v. Pirates | 11-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#901) Last week at this time, the Pittsburgh Pirates were making a move in the NL Central race and the Wild Card standings. They had won seven of nine, were back at .500, and were feeling pretty good about their chances of putting together a strong stretch run. That was then. This is now. After facing sub .500 foes in six straight series, the schedule toughened a bit for Clint Hurdle’s squad. They have not responded well, losing five straight games, ice cold heading into Friday Night. First the lineup couldn’t buy a run, held to four runs in the first three games of the skid combined. Then the bullpen fell apart, blowing leads in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings on Wednesday against the Brewers, then wasting a 5-1 lead last night, as four different relievers allowed a combined eight runs! Blown leads and bullpen meltdowns are the last thing a team like Pittsburgh -- with their fragile psyche -- needs right now. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have won nine of their last twelve, surging up in the standings – they trail the Cubs by only 1.5 games entering Friday’s action. The Cards lineup is red hot, off another 11 run outburst last night while averaging 7.5 runs per game during that 12 game span. And starter Carlos Martinez has been rock solid of late, allowing three runs or less five times in six starts since the All Star Break, including throwing seven innings of five hit, two run ball against the same Pirates lineup he’ll face tonight. Cheap price to lay with the better, hotter team! Take the Cardinals. |
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08-15-17 | Giants -105 v. Marlins | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#951) Madison Bumgarner is a ‘bet-on’ hurler right now, even more so since the markets have been fading him for his matchup with the Marlins tonight. The results don’t lie. After some initial mediocrity following an extended stint on the DL, Bumgarner has been pitching at an ace level of late. His last three starts – against three potent lineups (Dodgers, Dbacks and Cubs) – have been truly dominant. Bumgarner threw seven full innings in each one of those games, striking out 21 batters while allowing a grand total of three runs in the process. Miami isn’t a ‘long winning streak’ type of team; just playing out the string of yet another sub .500 campaign. Giancarlo Stanton is on fire, and the Marlins have won four straight, matching their longest winning streak of the campaign. But Miami hasn’t been winning against quality lefties all year – only the Braves and Reds have fewer than the Marlins ten wins all year against opposing southpaws. The Marlins average more than a half run less per nine innings vs. lefties, an offensive weakness worth noting. Marlins starter Dan Straily is no Madison Bumgarner, with no business in a near ‘pick ‘em’ price range against the Giants ace. The Marlins are 0-6 in Straily’s six starts since the All Star Break, with five of those losses coming by more than one run. Straily has a 5.17 ERA during that span, while allowing 50 baserunners in just over 31 innings of work. And, following a string of quality starts from the San Fran starting staff, the Giants have a legitimate bullpen rest edge here as well, with all of their key arms fresh to close out the victory. Take the Giants. |
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08-13-17 | Orioles -108 v. A's | 3-9 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#975) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting the Orioles last night, and I have no hesitation jumping right back on the Baltimore profit train in a pick ‘em price range again on Sunday. Very quietly, waaaay under the radar, the Orioles have gone 10-5 in their last 15 games, now only 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot in the postseason. Their bats have come to life again, pounding out 23 runs in the first three games of this series. They notched 20 hits yesterday and burned up the A’s bullpen in the process, after Sean Manaea lasted only 1/3 of an inning as the starter. Orioles starter Jeremy Hellickson is not well regarded in the ‘advanced metric’ betting community. His 5.23 xFIP isn’t very good, and his 34.8% ground ball rate is problematic. But those season long stats are largely irrelevant now. Hellickson gave this locker room a legitimate boost when he was acquired before the trading deadline; in sharp contrast to teams like Houston, who did not make any major moves. He’s thrown two quality starts in two tries since joining Baltimore, revitalized in the midst of a pennant race. It’s surely worth noting that current A’s have hit just .182 with a .471 OPS against Hellickson in 33 previous at bats against him. It’s also worth noting that the key arms in Baltimore’s bullpen are rested and ready today off yesterday’s blowout victory. Oakland defense ranks among the worst in baseball, and their bullpen continues to struggle, ranked #26 in MLB in ERA. That’s bad news with Kendall Graveman on the hill. Gravemen has a 12.27 ERA since coming off the DL in his two post-All Star Break starts. Current Orioles have lit him up to the tune of a .333 batting average against and a .925 OPS in a decent sample size of 75 previous at bats. For a pick ‘em priced game, this contest sure has the makings of a one sided affair. Take the Orioles. |
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08-12-17 | Orioles -106 v. A's | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#925) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting Dylan Bundy in his last start, a 6-2 win in LA against the Angels. Numbers have been slightly adjusted to reflect current realities: “Orioles starter Dylan Bundy was in a nasty funk heading into the All Star Break. His velocity was down, his strikeout rate was down and he had a 5.93 ERA in June before getting lit up by the Twins and Rays in his first two starts in July, just before the break. “Manager Buck Showalter decided to give Bundy some extra rest between starts. In his first start with extra rest, he threw six innings of four hit, one run ball against the Rangers. He went with normal rest next time out and got hammered by the Astros, although Baltimore won the game. Showalter gave Bundy extra rest again before his last start and it was another gem: eight innings of three hit, one run ball against KC. No surprise then, that Bundy is on an extra day of rest again tonight.” Bundy is not on extra rest tonight, but the cumulative effect of getting him those extra days off is primed to pay dividends. The Orioles are 4-0 in his starts since the All Star Break, winning those games by a combined score of 34-12, all multi-run victories. He’s only thrown 26.1 innings of work in the last 5+ weeks; quite capable of throwing seven or eight innings; exactly what he’s done in his last two starts. And this ballpark is a good fit for Bundy’s fly balling ways. The last place A’s snapped a three game home skid last night with a come-from-behind win, but this is not a team primed to go on many winning streaks here in the dog days of August. They are just 2-5 in starter Sean Manaea’s last seven starts, and they needed offensive outbursts for both victories, scoring 18 combined runs in the two wins. Manaea has allowed 19 runs including six dingers in his last four trips to the hill. The A’s defense behind him ranks among the worst in baseball, and their bullpen continues to struggle, ranked #26 in MLB in ERA. Take the Orioles. |
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08-11-17 | Pirates +123 v. Blue Jays | 4-2 | Win | 123 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#979) It’s not hard to make a case for betting against the Blue Jays off a win. Winning streaks have been few and far between for Toronto of late. In fact, since the All Star Break, with the exception of one four game winning streak (a series sweep against the last place A’s), the Blue Jays are just 1-7 coming off a victory, unable to string wins together on any sort of consistent basis. It’s not hard to make a case for betting against Marcus Stroman off an exhausting 118 pitch effort against the Astros in his last outing. Stroman has two previous starts off 110+ pitch efforts this year. Neither one was pretty, and Stroman was pulled before the start of the sixth inning each time. Prior to this season, Stroman hadn’t thrown more than 110 pitches in a game since his rookie season in 2014. Even that year, he struggled off those extended outings – two of his worst three outings of the entire season came off 110+ pitch count games. Pittsburgh is playing good ball right now, 6-2 in their last eight ballgames. They’ll get the added benefit of the DH tonight, good news for a team who’s lineup is clicking, pounding out five runs or more five times during their current hot streak. Starter Jameson Tallion bounced back with a 6.2 inning, two run effort last time out after a pair of rough outings, and he’ll be facing a lineup that has never seen him before. And if it comes down to a battle of bullpens, there’s no comparison between these two squads. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been rock solid all year long, Toronto still ranks in the bottom quartile in bullpen ERA and that pen isn’t fresh, having thrown more innings than anyone but the Reds and Marlins here in 2017. Live dog here! Take the Pirates.. |
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08-09-17 | Orioles -127 v. Angels | 1-5 | Loss | -127 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#963) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner with the Orioles on Monday, primed to cash again with Baltimore in afternoon action today. Buck Showalter’s squad is ‘bet-on’ all the way today following yesterday’s 3-2 loss, having won 8 of their last 11 overall, making a strong push towards a Wild Card spot. LA has basically run out of starting pitchers. Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards and Andrew Heaney have been out all year. Matt Shoemaker just had season ending surgery. Even the replacements for the expected starters have gotten hurt, with Alex Meyer joining those on the DL just after the All Star Break. That’s why we’re seeing Mike Scioscia trotting out the likes of Troy Scribner out to the mound today. Scribner isn’t supposed to be pitching in the big leagues yet, but LA has run out of decent options. His first start came against Oakland last week, and it wasn’t pretty: five runs allowed in four innings, more walks than strikeouts. This potent Orioles lineup is primed to light him up today. And the Angels bullpen behind him, like the starting staff, is a shell of what it was projected to be, with three key relievers also out of action here in August. Kevin Gausman’s season long numbers aren’t particularly impressive, but his current form certainly is. He’s allowed one run or less in six of his last eight starts. He got hammered in his first start after the All Star Break, but in his last four outings, Gausman has allowed a grand total of two runs – both on solo shots – while striking out 32 batters and eating up 27.2 innings. He’s an undervalued commodity in the markets due to that poor start to the season, offering legit value as short chalk in a game that has all the makings of a mismatch. Take the Orioles. |
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08-08-17 | Cardinals -117 v. Royals | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#929) My clients and I have supported Michael Wacha in several recent starts, and there’s every reason to believe that Wacha remains a ‘bet-on’ pitcher today as the Cardinals continue their series in KC against the Royals. Wacha has found his groove, pitching into the sixth inning in six of his last seven outings. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last ten trips to the hill, with St Louis posting a 7-3 mark in those ballgames. The combination of a steady diet of strikeout and ground ball outs is giving opposing hitters nothing but trouble, and his track record against the KC lineup is rock solid. The Cardinals bats have woken up, pounding out 28 runs during their current three game winning streak. That’s bad news for Jason Vargas, who has cooled off rather dramatically since his red hot start to the campaign. Vargas had a 7.23 ERA in four July starts and got hit hard, lasting only five innings in his first start of August. Current Cardinals have hit .400 against him with a .985 OPS – even in a short sample size, those are ugly numbers. And with KC slumping, now 3-7 since their nine game winning streak was snapped, there’s ample reason to expect the Royals struggles to continue today. Take the Cardinals. |
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08-07-17 | Orioles +113 v. Angels | 6-2 | Win | 113 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#957) Orioles starter Dylan Bundy was in a nasty funk heading into the All Star Break. His velocity was down, his strikeout rate was down and he had a 5.93 ERA in June before getting lit up by the Twins and Rays in his first two starts in July, just before the break. Manager Buck Showalter decided to give Bundy some extra rest between starts. In his first start with extra rest, he threw six innings of four hit, one run ball against the Rangers. He went with normal rest next time out and got hammered by the Astros, although Baltimore won the game. Showalter gave Bundy extra rest again before his last start and it was another gem: eight innings of three hit, one run ball against KC. No surprise then, that Bundy is on an extra day of rest again tonight, a key factor that the betting markets haven’t seemed to pay any attention too in early betting action on Monday. Baltimore is in excellent current form, winning seven of their last nine overall, including a pair of blowouts over the Tigers this past weekend. LA, on the other hand, is coming off a miserable weekend – shut out on Saturday, then victims of an ugly blown save on Sunday when a 10-5 lead in the seventh inning turned into an 11-10 defeat. Key bullpen arms Yusmeiro Petit and Blake Parker as well as closer Bud Norris aren’t likely to see the field tonight. Don’t expect a gem from LA starter JC Ramirez this evening, bad news considering the bullpen issues behind him. Ramirez has thrown 100+ innings in three consecutive starts; clearly problematic for a guy who came into the season without a single start at the big league level; a bullpen guy since he came into the league back in 2013. Baltimore tends to hit hard throwing fastballers like Ramirez pretty well, and that Orioles lineup is clicking right now, pounding out five runs or more six times in their last eight ballgames. Wrong team favored here! Take the Orioles. |
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08-05-17 | Diamondbacks -128 v. Giants | 4-5 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#963). Sorry, Teddy will not have a detailed write-up for this game. He is at the IFBC conference in Costa Rica. Watch the Livestream at www.ifbc.live. Normal write-ups will resume on Monday, sincere apologies for any inconvenience... |
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08-03-17 | Cardinals -121 v. Brewers | 1-2 | Loss | -121 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#951) Sorry, no detailed write-up for Thursday's early start game. Teddy is about to jump on a plane to Costa Rica for the IFBC Football Betting Conference this weekend. Normal write-ups will resume on Monday, sorry for any inconvenience. |
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08-02-17 | Royals v. Orioles -123 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#918) The Orioles have been a VERY streaky team all year, and they’ve flipped the switch ‘on’, notching four consecutive wins heading into Wednesday’s series finale with the Royals. And, just as importantly, the Baltimore locker room is a very different place now than it was last week; with the Orioles turning out to be buyers, not sellers, at the trading deadline. All of a sudden, this team is only 3.5 games behind KC for the final Wild Card slot, a gap that I expect will decline once again following tonight’s game. Jeremy Hellickson was the big acquisition for Baltimore at the trading deadline, and he’ll be pitching on extra rest in his Orioles debut. “I'm ready to help…. So I got traded and looked at the standings and saw we're only five games back, 5 1/2, whatever. So still two months of baseball to play. I've been part of teams that came back from nine back in a month, so it's definitely doable. It is always fun to come back to and do things people say you can't do. Will be a fun two months." Hellickson is no ace, but he spent the season eating up innings and keeping the last place Phillies in games. He’ll be facing a Kansas City lineup that has suddenly gone cold, scoring only three runs in the first two games of this series. Behind him, the Orioles bullpen is in great shape following back-2-back strong outings from Dylan Bundy and Ubaldo Jimenez over the past two days. It’s surely worth noting that elite closer Zack Britton was NOT dealt at the deadline…. Royals starter Jason Vargas recorded an out past the fifth inning only once in four July starts. His season long stats are impressive, but he’s been regressing, as expected by the advanced metric stats. A 6-0/1.98 ERA in June morphed into a 1-1/7.23 ERA in July. And his 3.00 ERA translates into an xFIP of 4.92 – we can and should expect continued regression from a hurler who has shown real vulnerability to the home run ball of late. KC’s impressive winning streak from last week is already a long way in the rear view mirror now…..Take the Orioles. |
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07-31-17 | Mariners +113 v. Rangers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 113 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle (#911) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner with the Mariners on the Run Line in their 9-1 blowout over the Mets on Sunday. And there’s every reason to think that Seattle will continue their winning ways against Cole Hamels and the Rangers in Arlington this evening. While only two games separate the Rangers and Mariners in the standings, there’s a world of difference in the mentality and approaches between these two teams right now. The Mariners haven’t pulled the plug on their season, still very much in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. They’ve been buyers, picking up David Phelps and Erasmo Ramirez to sure up their pitching staff. They just won series against the Mets and Red Sox, feeling pretty good about themselves while swinging some hot bats. The Rangers, on the other hand, are sellers at the trade deadline, jettisoning veterans and salary at every reasonable opportunity. Jonathan LuCroy got dumped last night, with more trades expected to follow between now and the first pitch tonight. The Rangers just lost back-2-back series at home to the sub .500 Marlins and the sub .500 Orioles, allowing 46 runs in six games in the process. The betting markets don’t like Felix Hernandez anymore; not with his average fastball velocity way down and his age starting to show – hence the underdog price on Seattle tonight. But King Felix has been solid of late, allowing only six runs in three starts since the All Star Break. Hernandez threw 7.1 innings of one run ball against Texas in his lone start against them this year. And Seattle’s bullpen behind him is in good shape tonight off James Paxton’s gem on Sunday. Be sure to click ‘action’ when you make this wager, not ‘listed pitchers’ because there’s a chance that Cole Hamels could get dealt before the deadline (Texas wouldn’t be favored without Hamels on the hill tonight). I’m assuming Hamels is going to pitch, but he’s not in great form, struggling with the gopher ball of late: four dingers allowed in his last two starts. The Mariners hit him hard in his lone previous start against them this year, picking up right where they left off last year. In their two games against Hamels post-All Star Break last year, Seattle bashed Hamels for 13 earned runs in just six innings of work. Behind Hamels, the Rangers bullpen is a gas can right now. Wrong team favored here! Big Ticket: Take the Mariners. |
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07-29-17 | Reds v. Marlins -138 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#908) The Cincinnati Reds are a dead nuts ‘bet-against’ team right now, a hopeless squad that has thrown in the towel on the 2017 campaign. Cinci opened the second half with a 2-8 homestand. They’ve gone 0-5 since hitting the highway, losing all five games by multi-run margins. Quotes like this one from manager Bryan Price don’t inspire much confidence from this bettor – his entire focus is on evaluating talent for next year, not winning games this year: “These last 10 weeks are very important because I think we have to have a vision of what our starting rotation is going to look like in 2018, but we have to have that vision in 2017. I think it's going to be very difficult to come in and say, talk about, being really competitive if the vision isn't — if we don't know what 2018 is going to look like, at least from the outset.” The Reds pitching staff is in shambles, bad news against a Marlins team that has found their stroke, pounding out 33 runs while winning each of their last three ballgames. The Reds starters have combined to rank dead last in MLB in innings pitched, ERA and FIP. As a result, their bullpen is completely gassed, throwing gas on fires instead of putting them out. And Price is trying to stretch out his starters, leaving them in games where a strong bullpen would have their collective backs. All of which is bad news with Tim Adleman on the hill tonight. The Reds are 2-7 in Adleman’s last nine starts, and he’s getting worse, not better, with an 0-4 mark and a 6.48 ERA here in July. Behind him, the Cinci bullpen is spent off back-2-back short outings from their starters over the past two nights. Marlins starter Adam Conley will be facing an ice cold Reds lineup, held to just 45 runs during this 2-13 slide since the break. Price: “We don't have anybody who's on fire. We haven't gotten to our power in the second half, which had been our strength in terms of driving the ball for extra-base hits." The Reds average nearly a full run per nine innings lower against opposing southpaws compared to righties. Conley has looked like an ace since coming off the DL, allowing just two runs in 13 innings over a pair of starts. Anything close to that level of performance tonight and we should cash this bet with relative ease. Take the Marlins. |
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07-26-17 | Mets v. Padres +101 | 3-6 | Win | 101 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Take San Diego (#960) Steven Matz is a ‘bet-against’ pitcher right now, plain and simple, nowhere near his ‘A’ game following elbow surgery. The Mets are 2-5 in his last seven trips to the hill. In his last three starts, Matz has lasted a combined 10.1 innings while allowing 23 hits and 15 earned runs. His strikeout rate is way down, his ground ball rate is down and his advanced metrics numbers clearly show that Matz’s 4.67 ERA is no aberration. Mets manager Terry Collins:“He just has to go back to making better pitches. His stuff is fine. He just has to command his fastball a little better. It's been getting too much of the plate." Jhouyls Chacin was built for Petco Park, where his fly ball ways don’t hurt him. He’s got a 1.94 ERA in ten starts on this field, compared to 7.35 in ten starts on the highway. But even those numbers are somewhat misleading, because he’s been good everywhere all month, with the Padres going 4-0 in Chacin’s four July starts and Chacin allowing only six runs in those four games combined. Chacin’s single worst start of the season came at Citi Field back in May, and from all indications, he’s itching for the rematch. The Mets are primed to be active sellers over the next week, with trade rumors hanging over key veterans like Lucas Duda, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson, among others. This isn’t a team primed to win three in a row on the highway very often, especially with their bullpen in shambles following a nasty streak of injuries. The home team should be chalk here, but the betting markets have given us a bargain! Take the Padres. |
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07-25-17 | Orioles +114 v. Rays | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#917) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner with the Orioles in their 5-0 shutout victory at Tampa Bay last night. Let me start this write-up with an excerpt from what I wrote yesterday. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “To say that Tampa Bay just suffered through a rough weekend would be something of an understatement. They lost their series finale at Oakland in blowout fashion, then returned home to get swept by the Rangers. Tampa held a late lead in all three losses to Texas, suffering a blown save, a bullpen loss and a game losing three run homer following a two out error. Meanwhile, the Orioles just closed out their homestand by winning five out of seven, staying alive in the Wild Card race. Their potent lineup is on fire right now, pounding out 54 runs during that seven game span.” Tampa’s bullpen threw gas on the fire AGAIN last night, entering the game in the 8th inning facing a 1-0 deficit, with four runs crossing home plate in their 1.2 innings of work. And today’s starter, Jacob Faria is coming off his worst (and shortest) start of his young career. It’s surely worth noting that this will be the third time the Orioles have seen Faria since mid-June – he’s not going to fool this hot hitting lineup. The Rays bats have gone cold, held to three runs or less in seven of ten games since the All Star Break. They’ve struggled against opposing southpaws like Wade Miley all year, averaging more than half a run per game less versus lefties compared to righties. Miley threw seven innings of four hit, two run ball against Tampa in his lone previous start against them this year. And the Orioles bullpen behind him is in good shape off Kevin Gausman’s gem last night. Take the Orioles. |
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07-24-17 | Orioles -101 v. Rays | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#963) To say that Tampa Bay just suffered through a rough weekend would be something of an understatement. They lost their series finale at Oakland in blowout fashion, then returned home to get swept by the Rangers. Tampa held a late lead in all three losses to Texas, suffering a blown save, a bullpen loss and a game losing three run homer following a two out error. The bullpen concerns are paramount here, because starter Blake Snell isn’t eating innings. The Rays are 1-5 in his last six starts, the only victory coming via a blown save in the ninth; a game Tampa stole. Only once in Snell’s last ten starts has he recorded an out in the sixth inning, suffering from high pitch counts and far too many walks; a young hurler who, quite frankly, doesn’t trust his stuff. Snell has averaged nearly a walk per INNING since coming off the DL on June 28th, something even the free swinging Orioles should take advantage of. The Orioles just closed out their homestand by winning five out of seven, staying alive in the Wild Card race. Their potent lineup is on fire right now, pounding out 54 runs during that seven game span. Starter Kevin Gausman has endured more than his fair share of ugly outings this year – hence his 6.11 ERA. But Gausman’s xFIP is a full run and a half lower than that, he’s coming off a four hit gem against the Rangers in his last start, and he held Tampa to two hits in seven scoreless innings when he faced them earlier this month. And the Orioles bullpen is in decent shape behind him, with Zack Britton needing only 16 pitches yesterday to notch his first save since coming off the DL. Take the Orioles. |
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07-23-17 | Cardinals +151 v. Cubs | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#913) Let me start with an excerpt from my last write-up supporting Michael Wacha and the Cardinals, from his complete game shutout over the Mets last week: “Michael Wacha has suffered through his own share of injuries in his career, but he's healthy and back on track right now, off three consecutive dominant starts heading into the break: 17.2 innings of work, 3 runs allowed with a 23-4 strikeout to ball ratio. The Cardinals won each of those starts, an emerging streak worth riding.” Wacha was every bit as dominant against the Mets as he had been in each of those previous three outings, allowing only three hits and one walk over nine innings. The Cards are still three games under .500 after Saturday’s one run defeat, but they’re 6-1 in Wacha’s last seven trips to the hill, and he’s got an 0.87 ERA here in July. That’s a dramatic turnaround from their 3-7 mark in his first ten starts, and an ERA over 5.00 in both May and June. As is often the case post-All Star Break, the markets are lagging behind Wacha’s current reality, with those full season numbers clearly affecting this moneyline. The Cubs bats have cooled off after a red hot run after the Break and St Louis has a winning record against opposing southpaws like Jose Quintana. All the pressure is on Quintana tonight, making his first start at Wrigley for the Cubs in front of a national TV audience. Frankly, I’m not convinced it will go well…. Live dog here! Take the Cardinals. |
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07-22-17 | Padres +125 v. Giants | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Take San Diego (#953) The Giants have no business as favorites in this ballgame. Off another frustrating loss last night, San Francisco is now 5-16 in their last 21 games, a nasty little free fall. Manager Bruce Bochy doesn’t see an immediate turnaround on the horizon either, after the Giants blew a pair of four run leads in yesterday’s extra inning defeat. Bochy: “That’s why we are at where we’re at (last place). We can’t put (pitching and hitting) together. That’s what’s hurt us.” Bochy used seven different relievers last night, leaving a depleted bullpen. That’s bad news with Matt Moore on the hill today. The Giants are 5-14 in Moore’s starts this season, a record that hasn’t come by accident. Moore has allowed at least four runs in every home start since the beginning of June, and the Giants are winless in those games. Meanwhile, the Padres lineup is hitting as well as they have at any point this season, pounding out 50 runs in the eight games since the break while scoring five or more six times during that span. Padres starter Luis Perdomo is coming off an awful outing at Coors Field. Expect far better results at pitcher friendly AT & T Park, where Perdomo has been light’s out as a starter, allowing only two earned runs in 12.1 innings over two starts there. He’s been cashing underdog tickets with some consistency of late, including a +210 at Cleveland, a +115 at home against Detroit and a +200 at Chicago since Memorial Day. ‘Live dog' here! Take the Padres. |
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07-21-17 | Pirates v. Rockies -137 | 13-5 | Loss | -137 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#908). Right now, Jeff Hoffman is a ‘bet-on’ pitcher at Coors Field, and the Rockies are most assuredly a ‘bet-on’ team. Colorado is 7-3 in Hoffman’s last ten starts. He’s throw seven full innings in each of his last two outings at Coors without reaching 95 pitches in either game; throwing very efficiently. The Rockies lineup behind him is on fire, pounding out AT LEAST nine runs in each of their last four ballgames. And there’s little reason for bettors to think that one of the most potent lineups in baseball is going to get shut down by Trevor Williams tonight. Williams certainly isn’t eating up innings, failing to finish the sixth eight times in 13 starts. Like many young pitchers, he’s been much better pitching at home than on the highway, a guy who is not built for success at hitter friendly Coors. Behind Williams, the Pirates bullpen was used extensively in their just concluded four game sweep over the Brewers. And Pittsburgh's lineup continues to struggle, held to five or less in every game since the break while barely averaging three runs per game. The Rockies roster bought into Bud Black from Day 1 this year, making this particular quote stand out to me: “ We got beat pretty soundly in those first two games (after the All Star Break), didn’t pitch well. Our guys came out Sunday morning on a mission. I think that’s been carrying over, I really do.” Cheap price to lay with the superior team and the superior pitcher, both in excellent current form. Take the Rockies. |
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07-19-17 | Tigers -106 v. Royals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Detroit (#923) Three years ago, the Kansas City Royals were a World Series team. Two years ago, they won the World Series. Last year, the Royals were in the thick of the playoff race until a September swoon. But here in 2017, Kansas City is a sub .500 squad right now, with the feel of a team headed in the wrong direction over the second half of the campaign. Make no mistake about it — the Royals have played lifeless, lethargic baseball while losing four out of five since the All Star Break, outscored 28-12 in the process. Don’t expect that to change tonight with Jason Hammel on the hill on a hot, humid night in KC. Here’s Hammel’s quote when asking whether he liked pitching in these conditions. “Honestly, no. Growing up in Seattle it was not humid in the summertime. Probably 80 tops, beautiful summers. I’ve always been a sweater. For whatever reason, I just sweat like a pig.” The Royals have lost each of Hammel’s last four starts and he’s been rocked here in July, with a 6.35 ERA this month in three previous starts. For the season, KC is 4-14 with Hammel on the hill. Yet he’s in a pick em price range here, because the betting markets have assumed the Tigers aren’t focused, with veterans like JD Martinez being dealt and the potential for more trades ahead. Yet Detroit has blown out KC in the first two games of this series. And they’ve OWNED Hammel. Current Tigers have an OPS above .900 against him. Detroit knocked Hammel out of the game after 4.1 innings in his lone previous outing against them this year, and he’s got an 8.02 ERA in ten career outings against them. Plus, the Royals bullpen behind him is spent after getting only 7.1 innings from their starters over the past two days. Justin Verlandet, too, is on the trading block. But he’s pitching behind an offense that is crushing the ball right now, scoring 36 runs while winning four straight. And Verlander has owned the Royals: 23-10 against them in his career; 13-6 with a 2.90 ERA here at Kaufmann Stadium, He’s thrown two strong seven inning efforts against KC already this season, and the only reason he’s not 2-0 in those starts is because the Tigers lost 1-0 in one of them. I’m certainly not anticipating that to happen against Hammel tonight! Big Ticket: Take the Tigers.
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07-18-17 | Rays -106 v. A's | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#973) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting Tampa Bay last night. The numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: "The Rays are coming off a winning series in Anaheim, now trailing Boston by only two games in the AL East. That’s a far cry from the Oakland A’s, who have been a steady fixture in last place in the AL West for the last two months, despite a series sweep over the Indians this past weekend. The last time Oakland had a home sweep, they followed it up by getting swept in a four game set at home in their next series; not the type of squad primed to deliver extended runs of winning baseball over the back half of the campaign." "Oakland GM Billy Beane has announced that the team is in full rebuild mode. He just traded two key relievers for future prospects, leaving manager Bob Melvin to say this about his bullpen moving forward: "We'll figure it out on the fly a little bit.” In a pick ‘em price range, the choice here is clear.” The betting markets don’t like Rays starter Blake Snell one bit. Snell was solid as a rookie last year, but he was sent down to Triple A for six weeks following a rough start to the campaign and he’s still winless in his 10 starts this season; walking far too many batters. But last time out, Snell threw five innings of shutout ball against the Cubs. His quote: “I definitely feel like I’m headed in the right direction…..I’ve got to attack the strike zone if I want to be here.” Facing an A’s squad that hasn’t hit lefties all year (.222 batting average, nearly a full run per nine innings less than vs righties), Snell offers legit ‘bet-on’ potential here. A’s starter Chris Smith does not, a 36 year old rookie who is only here because the A’s have run out of options. Given Oakland’s bullpen concerns behind him, Smith and the A’s have no business in a pick ‘em price range here. Take the Rays. |
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07-18-17 | Cardinals -115 v. Mets | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Take St Louis (#953) While only three games separate the Mets and the Cardinals in the Wild Card standings, there’s a world of difference in the approach these two teams are taking for the stretch run of the MLB campaign. The injury riddled Mets have sent six different starting pitchers to the DL this year. The end result of all those pitching injuries is that we get to bet against a starter like Rafael Montero this evening. Montero was the eighth or ninth ranked starter for the Mets in training camp, and he’s spent most of the season working out of the bullpen. Montero doesn’t eat up innings, and he’s notched only one win as a starter all year, facing the hapless Giants when they were ice cold. The Mets bullpen behind him isn’t rested and ready after their starters over the past two days combined to last only 6.1 innings of work. Plain and simple — the Mets do not feel like a contender, 10.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and 14 games back of the Nationals in the NL East. St Louis enters Tuesday only 5.5 games back in the NL Central and 7.5 back of the Wild Card spot; a squad that isn’t looking to be sellers at the deadline. Starter Michael Wacha has suffered through his own share of injuries in his career, but he’s healthy and back on track right now, off three consecutive dominant starts heading into the break: 17.2 innings of work, 3 runs allowed with a 23-4 strikeout to ball ratio. The Cardinals won each of those starts, an emerging streak worth riding tonight at Citi Field. Take the Cardinals. |
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07-17-17 | Rays -101 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#923) Last year, Jake Odorizzi had a rough first half, winning only three of his 19 starts with an ERA of 4.47. After the All Star Game, he went 7-1 with a 2.71 ERA, including a truly dominant eight start run immediately following the break, allowing a combined total of 12 earned runs in those eight games. Odorizzi’s quote heading into his first post-break start against the A’s in Oakland tonight is meaningful, especially off a particularly dismal showing in his last outing before the break, lit up by the Red Sox. "I just need a restart. Get some time away and get back to throwing the ball in the second half like I did last year. I'm kind of in a familiar spot. I was able to rebound last year, and I need to do the same thing.” The Rays are coming off a winning series in Anaheim, now trailing Boston by only three games in the AL East. That’s a far cry from the Oakland A’s, who have been a steady fixture in last place in the AL West for the last two months, despite a series sweep over the Indians this past weekend. The last time Oakland had a home sweep, they followed it up by getting swept in a four game set at home in their next series; not the type of squad primed to deliver extended runs of winning baseball over the back half of the campaign. A’s rookie starter Daniel Gossett has been struggling mightily with the gopher ball, allowing eight dingers in his first 30.1 MLB innings of work. Oakland GM Billy Beane has announced that the team is in full rebuild mode. He just traded two key relievers for future prospects, leaving manager Bob Melvin to say this about his bullpen moving forward: "We'll figure it out on the fly a little bit.” In a pick ‘em price range, the choice here is clear. Take the Rays. |
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07-16-17 | Mariners -112 v. White Sox | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Seattle (#969). To say that Derek Holland has been struggling of late is something of an understatement. The White Sox are 1-7 in his last eight starts, losing six times by multiple runs during that span. After two solid months to open the season, Holland has fallen apart, with a 9.55 ERA in June and an 11.57 ERA here in his first two July starts. From all indications, Holland’s viability as a major league starter is limited at best; not a guy primed for improvement coming out of the All Star Break. The White Sox aren’t primed for improvement either. They went into the break on a 1-4 skid, culminating in a 10-0 loss in Colorado last Sunday. They’ve come out of the break with back-to-back home losses to Seattle to open the series; notching only five runs and 13 hits in the two games combined. Now sitting in last place in the AL Central, Chicago has all the makings of a solid ‘bet-against’ team moving forward. The Mariners, on the other hand, despite numerous early season struggles, are only three games out of a Wild Card spot right now after winning the first two games of this series; 4-1 in their last five overall. Impressive rookie Andrew Moore has thrown three consecutive quality starts to open his big league career, walking only two batters in 21 innings of work. Ride the hot & fade the cold. Take the Mariners. |
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07-14-17 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -101 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#960) Sorry, no detailed write-up for today’s game — Teddy is in transit this morning. Full write-ups will resume, as normal, on Sunday. |
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