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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-29-17 | Reds v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 2-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Cincinnati – Toronto OVER (#977-978) I don’t trust Reds starter Lisalverto Bonilla to get many outs today. Bonilla certainly isn’t manager Bryan Price’s first choice to start a game, but with starting pitchers Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, Homer Bailey and Amir Garrett all on the DL, it’s not like the Reds have a ton of good options for tonight’s game. Bonilla has bounced around numerous organizations since 2009. He got a couple of starts with the Rangers in 2014, and he’s had three here in Toronto this year; not the type of prospect who wows the scouts and gets chance after chance at the big league level. Bonilla’s biggest problems have been the gopher ball and control issues, a bad combination facing the suddenly resurgent Blue Jays lineup. Behind Bonilla, the Reds bullpen is wearing down from overuse, just like last year – they’ve thrown more innings than any bullpen in baseball. Only one of Cinci’s last five starters has gotten a single out past the fifth inning. Even though that pen has been decent of late, it’s by no means a trustworthy unit. Toronto’s Marcus Stroman has been very hittable of late, perhaps showing some aftereffects from his extensive participation in the World Baseball Classic before spring training. He hasn’t gotten into the seventh inning in any of his last five starts, and the better hitting teams are finding his pitches quite hittable. Behind Stroman, the Jays pen, too, has been overworked, ranked #1 in the AL in innings pitched. Both lineups are a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. Toronto just got big bats Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki back off stints on the DL; primed for an offensive outburst today. Cincinnati’s hot hitting lineup has scored five runs or more nine times in their last dozen games while going 8-4 to the Over during that span. This game has a real ‘runs in bunches’ feel to it, primed to fly Over the total with room to spare. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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07-18-16 | Padres v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Take San Diego – St Louis OVER (#907-908) MLB Totals went 30-13-2 to the Under in the first weekend following the All Star Break. That’s not surprising – pitchers tend to have the edge over hitters following a few days off. But that edge doesn’t last long – after three games, we can expect hitters to find their rhythm. And frankly, these two lineups have come out of the break swinging the bats well, making the Over a clear choice in a matchup of two mediocre (at best) starting pitchers with suspect bullpens behind them. Padres manager Andy Green following their weekend sweep over the first place Giants: “I think we've grown. You watch Wil (Myers) work a walk against Cueto and celebrate it like he hit a home run. He made a great pitcher work and we weren't necessarily doing that earlier in the year." The Padres scored four or more runs in all three games against San Fran and eight of their last ten games overall. And the Padres have been trending Over for weeks, 16-9 to the Over in their last 25 ballgames. Don’t expect Mike Leake or the surprisingly mediocre Cardinals pen to slow down San Diego’s offense tonight. The Padres bullpen is even worse than the Cardinals pen, and starter Christian Friedrich hasn’t recorded an out after the fifth inning in any of his last four starts. Since mid-June, Friedrich has seen his ERA rise from 2.12 to 4.50, allowing at least one home run in every outing while struggling with walks. That’s a bad combo against St Louis, who scored 11 runs in two games after the break before taking a loss yesterday. It’s surely worth noting this quote from Sunday’s game in which the Cardinals struck out a season high 15 times. Outfielder Tommy Pham: “The strike zone was horrible, man. I mean, the guy had no sense of the inside part of the plate or the outside part of the plate.” I’m not expecting that two days in a row. On a hot, humid summer night in St Louis, look for runs in bunches from both of these squads. Take the Over. |
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07-09-16 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take LA Dodgers – San Diego Padres OVER (#961-962) Right now, the San Diego Padres are the single best ‘Over’ bet in baseball. San Diego is 5-1 to the Over in their last six contests while averaging just shy of seven runs per game offensively; 16-5 to the Over in their last 21. If you’re a regular client you already know my mantra regarding overs. Here’s an excerpt from a recent write-up explaining exactly what I’m talking about: “In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. “Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got a recipe for Over after Over. “When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 10-0 to the Over in a ten game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch” The Padres aren’t the only team trending heavily to the Over in this matchup. The LA Dodgers bats are clicking too, pounding out four runs or more seven times in their last nine games, including last night’s ten run outburst in a game that flew Over the total in the third inning. Neither starter is reliable and both bullpens are gassed. Neither starter made it out of the third inning last night, leaving both bullpens fatigued here. In fact, none of the Dodgers last six starters has recorded an out past the fifth inning and their last day off came on June 23rd. That’s an optimal recipe for late inning shenanigans here, particularly on a hot evening in LA with Carlos Torres calling balls and strikes (five straight Overs; more than 9.5 runs per game in his 17 previous instances behind home plate this year). With Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy on a strict pitch count in only his second start back from 14 months on the DL following Tommy John surgery, LA’s bullpen issues right now are clearly a problem. And it’s worth noting that McCarthy was rushed back due to Clayton Kershaw’s injury – he wasn’t supposed to be finished with his rehab until AFTER the All Star Brek. The Padres bullpen has been a gas can all year, ranked #25 in bullpen ERA. That’s come in large part because they’ve already thrown 306.3 innings, second most in all of baseball behind Cincinnati. Starter Luis Perdomo has one start and two relief appearances against LA this year. In those games, the Dodgers went 16-28 against him, for a .571 batting average against and a 1.434 OPS, truly UGLY numbers. Perdomo has allowed 25 runs in his last six starts while going 5-1 to the Over – he’s not exactly pitching at an ace level just yet. We’ve got hot weather and an ‘Over’ umpire calling balls and strikes. We’ve got two hot lineups and two suspect starters, with two worn down bullpens behind them. This is ASBSOLUTELY the recipe I look for when stepping up my unit size for a wager…..Big Ticket: Take the OVER. |
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07-06-16 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Take Arizona – San Diego OVER (#911-912) Right now, the San Diego Padres have become the single best ‘Over’ bet in baseball. San Diego is 6-1 to the Over in their last seven contests while averaging six runs per game offensively; 14-4 to the Over in their last 18. If you’re a regular client you already know my mantra regarding overs. Here’s an excerpt from a recent write-up explaining exactly what I’m talking about: “In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. “Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got a recipe for Over after Over. “When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 10-0 to the Over in a ten game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch” The Padres aren’t the only team trending heavily to the Over in this matchup. Arizona, too, has a red hot lineup and an ice cold, overworked pitching staff. They’re 6-0 to the Over in their last six, 10-2 to the Over in their last dozen games, averaging 5.5 runs per game during that span. The betting markets have spent all year waiting for Shelby Miller to turn his season around. It hasn’t happened – his ERA is now sitting at 7.05 in seven previous home starts after another rough outing against San Fran on his last trip to the hill. San Diego’s Colin Rea has shown some promise, but a 5.13 road ERA doesn’t inspire much confidence in this bettor. And this quote from red hot Padre Will Myers stands out in my mind, coming off a four hit day: “You see the ball really well here (at Chase Field).” Take the Over. |
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07-05-16 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Take Boston – Texas OVER (#971-972) With Colby Lewis, Yu Darvish and Derek Holland all on the DL, the Rangers are missing 3/5 of their starting rotation right now. The replacements haven’t been good – too many weak arms that can’t eat innings. The numbers don’t lie. In their last six games, Rangers starters have combined to throw only 26 innings of work – only once did the starter reach the sixth inning. That’s left the bullpen to clean up mess after mess. And the Rangers bullpen is clearly reeling right now. They’ve thrown 25 innings in that six game span, with an ERA of 9.72 during that span, truly woeful numbers. That’s particularly bad news with AJ Griffin on the hill tonight. Griffin has only lasted a combined 9.1 innings in two starts since his own stint on the DL. Griffin and that struggling Rangers bullpen won’t have an easy time of it tonight against the red hot Red Sox lineup. No team in baseball has a more potent lineup than Boston this year, the highest scoring team in MLB by a fairly wide margin. The Red Sox have pounded out 22 runs on 37 hits in their last two games alone, with eight of their nine guys in the lineup yesterday notching at least one extra base hit. Boston has cashed nine winning Over bets in their last dozen games, in large part due to their lineup success. Texas can’t pitch, but they sure can hit! The Rangers, too, are trending Over of late, 8-3-1 to the Over in their last dozen games, scoring five runs or more nine times during that span. They’ve certainly had success against Boston starter David Price. Price faced 18 Ranger batters in Arlington two starts back. 12 of those 18 batters notched hits. His career ERA against Texas is 5.78; current Rangers have a career .353 batting average against him in a 150 at-bat sample size. And Price has been particularly vulnerable to the long ball of late, allowing at least one home run in each of his last eight starts. Behind him, it’s certainly not like the Red Sox bullpen has been ‘lights out’ of late, leaving the door open for some late inning shenanigans should we need them. Take the Over. |
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07-02-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Take Arizona – San Francisco OVER (#909-910) We saw ten runs scored between these two teams last night on this field in a matchup of aces. Tonight, with a much weaker starting pitching matchup, we should expect runs in bunches once again! The Giants lineup is on fire right now, producing five runs or more 12 times in their last 16 games, including 30 runs scored in their last four contests alone. They’ve gone 10-5-1 to the Over during that span, including a run of five Overs and a push in their last six contests. The Giants should get both Buster Posey and Denard Span back in the lineup tonight following a day off yesterday. Arizona is certainly capable of trading runs with San Fran – they’ve scored seven runs or more five times in their last eight games while going 6-2 to the Over during that span. Neither starter is a ‘bet-on’ pitcher today! Jeff Samardzija allowed six runs or more three times in five June starts. Samardzija has cashed only one Under bet in his last seven trips to the hill, and he’s got a poor track record against the D-backs lineup, allowing current Arizona players to hit .295 against him in their respective careers. Behind him, the Giants bullpen hasn’t had a day off since June 16th, not primed to slam the door shut in the latter stages tonight. Patrick Corbin has been repeatedly lit up by the Giants lineup to the tune of a .307 career batting average and an .835 OPS in 166 previous at bats against him. Corbin has been nothing short of awful in front of the home fans this year, with an 0-5 record and a 7.02 ERA in seven previous starts at Chase Field in 2016. And Corbin’s strikeout pitch has basically disappeared of late, notching only four K’s (while walking eight batters) over his last two outings, a major red flag for a mediocre hurler. Behind Corbin, the D-backs pen ranks #22 in the majors in ERA while sitting just outside the top five in innings pitched, leaving the door open for some late inning fireworks should we need them. Take the Over. |
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06-15-16 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Take Minnesota – LA Angels OVER (#971-972) In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will often result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got the Minnesota Twins right now! When an MLB team wins ten straight games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 9-0-1 to the Over in a ten game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay attention. The bookmakers aren’t concerned. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch. That’s where I’m at with Minnesota right now. Their pitching has been bad all year, and that doesn’t change with Tyler Duffey on the hill – he’s allowed 26 earned runs in 28 innings over his last five starts, finishing the sixth inning only once during that span. The Twins bullpen behind him ranks #26 in ERA and most assuredly isn’t fresh after the beating they took from the Red Sox last weekend – they’ve had only one off day since May 26th. But the Twins lineup is hitting: 13 runs in the first two games here in LA; four runs or more in eight of their last ten during this 9-0-1 run to the Over. Don’t expect that to change tonight against struggling lefty Hector Santiago, who hasn’t made it out of the third inning three times in his last five outings. Minnesota Overs are worth riding here…… Take the Over. |
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06-03-16 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Take Seattle – Texas OVER (#973-974) I don’t have many 21 run winners in MLB, but my clients and I cashed one last night as the Mariners rallied from ten runs down to beat San Diego at Petco in a game that flew Over the total by 21 runs. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “The Mariners have cashed nine straight Over tickets. As I’ve written before, Overs begat more Overs. Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. Bullpens wear down following extended usage, leading to more bullpen meltdowns. Teams take better at bats knowing that they’ll need to score runs in bunches to win. When teams are riding these Over trends, bettors NEED to take notice. “The Mariners just scored 47 runs in a four game set at the lowest scoring ballpark in the majors; at least six in every game. This potent lineup is clicking, producing five runs or more ten times in their last 14 games.” We can expect more offensive fireworks tonight! Texas is hitting too, pounding out 31 runs in their last five contests. They just cashed three straight Over tickets in Cleveland this week. Seattle’s Taijuan Walker has lost his mojo, lit up for four runs or more in each of his last four starts while showing extreme vulnerability to the gopher ball – he’s given up nine home runs in his last five trips to the hill. Seattle’s bullpen behind him is a mess after very short stints from Wade Miley and James Paxton over the last two nights. Yu Darvish will be on a strict pitch count again in only his second start back from Tommy John surgery. From all indications, he’s still a long way from being 100%, despite a strong first showing (one run in five innings against the Pirates). Seattle has hit Darvish hard, with current Mariners enjoying a .316 career batting average against him in 76 at bats. And the Rangers bullpen has been a consistent disappointment this year, ranked #29 in MLB in bullpen ERA, offering the potential for late offensive fireworks should we need them. Take the Over. |
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05-20-16 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Take Washington – Miami OVER (#955-956) Tanner Roark has faced the Miami Marlins three times already this year. Miami hit him hard on all three of those occasions. In fact 14 of the 17 earned runs that Roark has allowed have come against the Marlins…and that doesn’t even include the two unearned runs Miami has against him. Roark has thrown 110 + pitches in each of his last two outings after throwing 121 against the Twins in late April – Washington manager Dusty Baker is up to his old tricks, keeping his starters in too long. And Baker’s quote isn’t exactly what his starter needs to hear (or think about): “I hope that team's not becoming a nemesis to him. Everybody has a couple teams they have some trouble with. They hit him pretty hard." A slumping Giancarlo Stanton is primed to give the Marlins lineup a boost against a hurler who he’s hit hard. But the Nationals potent bats are hot again, flying Over the total by themselves in each of the last two games. That’s bad news for Justin Nicolino, who has not fared well in either of his two previous career starts against the Nationals. Here’s what he said after getting bombed in DC last weekend: "I kind of was all over the place. That's a good-hitting lineup and you definitely don't want to make mistakes to them.” Each of Nicolino’s last three starts has produced ten combined runs or more, and his nine walk to two strikeout ratio here in May is a major concern against Washington’s patient lineup (ranked #5 in the majors in walks). Expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one! Take the Over. |
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05-18-16 | Indians v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Take Cincinnati – Cleveland OVER (#975-976) When a rookie hurler gets called up to make his MLB debut, I’m always interested in reading the manager’s quotes about his young starter. There’s often a lot of nuance here, reading between the lines. Here’s what Indians manager Terry Francona said about rookie starter Mike Clevinger yesterday: "We're really excited to watch him. I don't think tomorrow's start is going to define his career, and I do think he's still developing. But there's a lot to like with a kid with that kind of breaking ball, that kind of velocity, that kind of competitiveness. I think you can still develop and win, and we're looking forward to it." Read between the lines there and basically, Francona is telling us that this kid’s got good stuff, but he’s not ready yet. But after Cody Anderson’s awful start to the campaign, the Tribe needed a starting pitcher today, so Clevinger got the call. Facing a Reds lineup that’s in solid current form, pounding out 16 runs over their last three games, I’m expecting Cincinnati to get more than their fair share of runs across home plate tonight. Reds starter Brandon Finnegan has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last five starts. He’s struggling with his control, leading to high pitch counts and short stints (five innings or less in four of his last six trips to the hill). Behind him is a true ‘gas can’ of a bullpen – that’s how Cleveland has scored 28 runs in the first two games of this ‘home & home’ four game set. The Reds bullpen gave up 11 of those runs in just 7.2 innings of work; fairly typical of a bullpen that ranks dead last in ERA and next to last in innings pitched, badly overworked already. If we don’t see a flurry of early runs here, we should have ample opportunity to see some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in the latter stages of this one. Take the Over. |
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05-05-16 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Take San Francisco – Colorado OVER (#911-912) My clients and I cashed an Over ticket by the sixth inning the last time Matt Cain faced the Rockies; an 11-6 Slugfest. Cain hasn’t gotten much better since that defeat – his next quality start will be his first since his 2016 debut. He’s on pace to set career lows in swinging strike percentage and in ground ball percentage – opposing hitters are seeing his stuff clearly, and bashing it! No surprise, then, that Cain has cashed a grand total of two winning Under bets in his last 14 trips to the hill; a trend worth riding again here. A fly ball pitcher like Cain certainly won’t be helped by a gusty wind blowing out to left field tonight. And the fact that seven different current Rockies have home runs against Cain in their careers isn’t a good sign for the Giants expensive mid-tier starter. The Giants bullpen behind him has been mediocre at best, currently ranked #20 in team ERA. And defensively, the Giants have been nothing short of awful, dead last in the NL in Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (PADE); a big part of the reason why San Fran has been a strong Over team thusfar (11-2 to the Over in their last 13 games). But the Giants lineup is capable of trading runs with anybody, pounding out 66 runs in their last dozen games while scoring four runs or more nine times during that span. That’s bad news for Rockies starter Chris Rusin, and the struggling Rockies bullpen behind him (currently ranked #27 in ERA out of 30 big league teams). Rusin is no innings eater – he started the season in the long relief role and was pulled after only 76 pitches of his lone previous start. Rusin’s xFIP is twice as high as his ERA, and his .179 BABIP is due for a significant correction as well. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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