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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-12-18 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Take St Louis – Cincinnati OVER (#903-904) Both starters are vulnerable here. Michael Wacha has struggled with his command in his first two starts – seven walks to go along with his seven strikeouts. Current Reds have a .285 batting average against him in a 151 at bat sample size. Sal Romano’s fly ball ways are problematic at the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark and he’s notched only three strikeouts in two starts. Both bullpens have been vulnerable – six losses between them, while Cinci ranks #29 in bullpen ERA – and neither pen is particularly fresh here. On a warm evening in Cinci with a strong wind blowing out to left field, look for both offenses to post some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Take the Over. |
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04-11-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8 | 10-7 | Win | 102 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Boston – New York OVER (#975-976) David Price is an ace against most teams, but the Yankees have absolutely feasted on his stuff, to the tune of a .315 batting average against over the last three seasons. And while Price has yet to allow a single run in two dominant outings against Tampa to open the season, it’s surely worth noting that both his velocity and his ground ball rate are both down from last year. The Red Sox bats are on fire, pounding out 32 runs over their last three games. Prior to yesterday, the Yanks had scored seven or more in four out of six. And it’s surely worth noting how disappointing this New York bullpen has been so far, leaving the door open for some potential late inning fireworks. Take the Over. |
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04-10-18 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Colorado – San Diego OVER (#909-910) Rockies starter Tyler Anderson is untrustworthy here. Anderson struggled to keep the ball down in his 2018 debut, allowing ten fly ball outs in six innings of work. That’s an optimal strategy for pitching at Petco, but a clear problem in the Mile High air of Coors Field. Last year, Anderson allowed a whopping 16 home runs in just 88 innings of work. Colorado’s bullpen behind him ranks in the bottom half of the majors in ERA so far, and they’ve already blown a pair of saves. The Padres lineup broke out with a seven run outburst last night, and only one of the five meetings between these two teams so far this season has stayed Under the total. The Rockies lineup will be getting a ‘short turnaround’ second look at Joey Lucchesi after facing him last week in San Diego. Colorado hit three dingers last night, game time temperatures will be near 70 degrees and both bullpens got used extensively last night. Take the Over. |
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04-10-18 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 7 | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Washington OVER (#901-902) The Braves are scoring more than six runs per game this season and they lead all of MLB with a .285 batting average. Atlanta’s lineup has certainly enjoyed more success against Stephen Strasburg than most teams – they see him multiple times per year. Two of Strasburg’s three starts against Atlanta were downright ugly last year, with the Nats on the wrong end of 13-0 and 11-10 defeats. Current Braves have an .866 OPS against him in a decent sample size of 115 career at bats. And the Nats bullpen behind him has been roughed up repeatedly, ranked among the bottom five in baseball in bullpen ERA. Washington has hammered Foltyenwicz to the tune of a .311 batting average against an a .905 OPS in 122 at bats against him. And the Nats will get a ‘short turnaround’ second look at Foltyenwicz here after he failed to get out of the sixth inning despite a big lead when these two squads faced last week. Expect fireworks. Take the Over. |
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04-08-18 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 8 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Washington – New York OVER (#913-914) Tanner Roark pitched well in his debut against the Braves. But his track record against the Mets is mediocre at best, and the Nationals bullpen behind him is really struggling right now with an ERA well above 6.00. That bullpen ERA is dead last in the NL and a big part of Washington’s 67% Over run to open the season. Plus, the Nats used their best bullpen arms last night, with Kintzler, Madson and Doolittle all getting an innings’ worth of work. Washington scored 34 runs in their previous five games before arriving in New York – this lineup can hit. Matt Harvey has a dismal track record against the Nationals. In five starts against them since the start of 2016, Harvey is winless while allowing 21 runs in 22.1 innings of work. And the Mets, too, used up their key bullpen arms yesterday, setting the stage for some late inning shenanigans should we need them. Take the Over. |
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04-04-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 9 | 6-0 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – St Louis OVER (#907-908) Both of these lineups have gotten off to hot hitting starts; each squad ranked among the Top 6 in the NL in runs per game, batting average and OPS. Both starters got rocked by lesser lineups (the Padres and Mets) in their 2018 debuts. Current Brewers have hammered Carlos Martinez to the tune of a .322 batting average against. Martinez allowed 14 runs in 15.2 innings at Miller Park last year while going 0-3. Chacin has allowed current Cardinals to hit .309 against him and he got blasted in his lone start against them in 2017. Both bullpens have been used extensively in this series, leaving the door wide open for some late inning shenanigans should we need them! Take the Over. |
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04-04-18 | 76ers v. Pistons UNDER 216.5 | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Philadelphia UNDER (#503-504) The betting markets sent this total skyrocketing up in early betting action on Wednesday, with Pistons big man Andre Drummond downgraded to ‘questionable’ for tonight’s contest. Drummond is a defensive fixture for Detroit – he’s only missed three games in the last four years, so it’s not like Detroit has much of a track record playing without him And the Sixers offense has been rolling, averaging 117 points per game over their last ten contests thanks to elite level offensive efficiency numbers without Joel Embiid in the lineup. All of that Over $$ pouring in has given us legitimate value with an UNDER wager here. Lost in Philly’s recent offensive execution has been their defensive intensity; holding each of their last five foes to 104 or less while cashing five straight Under bets. This defense has been flat out ‘elite’ of late, holding foes under 40% shooting during this span. The Pistons have very quietly won seven of their last eight ballgames; the lone loss coming at Houston in a 100-96 OT loss. Note that final score against the NBA’s best offense – the Rockets; a game that stayed Under by 16.5 points even AFTER overtime! The Pistons, too, are trending towards the Under of late (6-3 to the Under in their last nine games), and they, too, are playing intense defense on a nightly basis, holding foes under 100 points per game in their last five contests. Philly won’t have two of their top four scorers, with elite perimeter threat Darko Saric expected to join Embiid on the sidelines in street clothes this evening. The Pistons are playing without their leading scorer, Blake Griffin – if Drummond doesn’t suit up, this team is primed to jack up a whole bunch of perimeter jumpers tonight; bad news against a team that’s pretty darn good at defending them! Take the Under. |
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04-03-18 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Oakland – Texas OVER (#969-970) Cole Hamels still has an ace level reputation, but he’s not at the top of his game anymore. His numbers took a sharp decline in Texas last year and in the opener he struggled with his command; much like last year. Current A’s have hit .343 against him with an 1.140 OPS. Behind Hamels, the Rangers bullpen is a dumpster fire right now, blowing another game last night. Kendall Graveman’s track record against the Rangers isn’t very good either, and he allowed three home runs in his 2018 debut. Throw in hitter-friendly home plate umpire Sam Holbrook calling balls and strikes and a brisk wind blowing out to right center and the stage is set for a high scoring affair in Oakland tonight. Take the Over. |
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04-01-18 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 10 | 8-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Texas OVER (#967-968) The Astros spent the vast majority of the 2017 campaign destroying left handed pitching. They scored four runs in four innings against southpaw Matt Moore yesterday. Today, they’ll face Mike Minor, who hasn’t thrown more than two innings in a major league game since 2014 – he’ll be on a fairly strict pitch count here; not primed for a dominant showing. Behind him, the Rangers bullpen got beaten up yesterday – five relievers, five innings, five runs allowed. Meanwhile, Rangers starter Gerritt Cole has a real gopher ball problem, allowing 31 home runs despite his home games coming at pitcher-friendly PNC Park last year. In Arlington, Cole’s fly ball ways are poised for trouble. Look for these two potent lineups to put plenty of crooked numbers up on the scoreboard Easter Sunday! Take the Over. |
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03-20-18 | Penn State v. Marquette OVER 150.5 | 85-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Penn State – Marquette OVER (#665-666) Oregon scored at a 1.18 points per possession clip on Marquette in the Golden Eagles last game, one of many shoddy defensive showings for Steve Wojciechowski’s squad throughout the course of the campaign. But with a pair of 20 points per game scorers in Markus Howard and Andrew Rowsey capable of lighting up the scoreboard; Marquette’s limited defensive acumen hasn’t hurt them in the NIT. They’ve shot 45% from three point range and 90% from the charity stripe through their first two NIT games on this floor, primed for similar success tonight. Penn State has been mired in the muck – they, quite literally, haven’t faced a true uptempo team like Marquette in months. After playing one grinder after the next in Big 10 action -- and even in the first two rounds of the NIT against Notre Dame and Temple – this is the first chance for the Nittany Lions to play in space on the offensive end. With elite level guard play from Tony Carr and Josh Reaves, look for Penn State’s offensive execution to be rock solid in this one. Penn State has hit their free throws at a 75% clip over their last five games. Their best shot blocker and low post defender Mike Watkins just got hurt, a major loss on the defensive end. And, in this pointspread range, with a trip to the NIT Final Four on the line, don’t be shocked in the slightest if we see ‘scramble points’ in bunches over the final few minutes of this contest. Take the Over. |
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03-09-18 | Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 214 | 112-120 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Take New York – Milwaukee UNDER (#807-808) Here’s the quote from Knicks head coach Jeff Hornacek, explaining to the media about how the Knicks aren’t ‘really’ tanking: "We're trying to evaluate our three young point guards. Moving forward, we got to make decisions on those guys. We have to play them as many minutes as possible. Jarrett has done a great job for us this year. But we're at the point of the season we need to take a look at those guys and give them bigger minutes. It's hard to judge them on five minutes here and there." To call the Knicks point guard play right now ‘atrocious’ would not be an overstatement. Newly acquired Emmanuel Mudiay, underachieving Trey Burke and Belgian rookie Frank Ntilikina are all getting time to show what they can and can’t do. In their 111-87 loss to Portland earlier in the week, that trio combined to shoot 5-28. The starter – Mudiay – committed six turnovers with his four assists. Look for the Knicks to struggle to reach the century mark once again this evening. It’s not like Milwaukee is lighting up the scoreboard these days either! The Bucks have been an Under machine in recent weeks: 5-1 to the Under in their last six ballgames, with four of the five Unders cashing by double digit margins. The Bucks have point guard issues as well, with key reserves Matthew Dellavedova and Malcolm Brogdon both sitting out with injuries. Heck, the ancient Jason Terry just got 30 minutes of playing time in their loss to Houston earlier in the week! I’m not expecting the offensive efficiency for either squad to impress anyone tonight! Take the Under. |
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03-08-18 | Notre Dame v. Duke UNDER 144 | 70-88 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Duke – Notre Dame UNDER (#665-666) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. Coach K spent a good portion of the season making adjustments to the Blue Devils defense. He finally settled on a 2-3 zone when Marvin Bagley Jr got hurt. Since going exclusively to that 2-3 zone, Duke’s games haven’t just been cashing Under bets – they’ve been cashing Under bets by HUGE margins. The results do not lie. Duke has played their last six games using this zone defense almost exclusively. Those games have gone 6-0 to the Under, by HUGE margins: 37 points, 22, 16.5, 39, 26.5 and 21 points – none of them were even close. Facing a Notre Dame team with tired legs – don’t expect those Irish jumpers to be falling like rain tonight – let’s ride this Under-the-Radar Under trend one more time! Take the Under. |
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03-07-18 | Fordham v. George Washington OVER 130.5 | 72-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Take George Washington – Fordham OVER (#607-608) The early $$ came pouring in on the Under for this matchup and it’s easy to understand why. George Washington’s season long stats don’t mean a whole lot. The Colonials changed their stripes completely at the start of February, when frosh Justin Mazzula took over the starting point guard role. George Washington was not a ‘push the pace’ team in November, December or January; leaving the Colonials with some very misleading season long numbers. Since Mazzula took over at the point, they’ve hung 78+ in five of their last eight games, playing at a much faster pace. Remember -- GW didn’t score more than 73 in a 17 game early season stretch; an inept offense that couldn’t do much of anything. That was then, this is now. As is often the case when a team makes a mid-season morph, the betting markets have struggled to keep up with the Colonials changing pac. They’ve been an Over team of late: 9-5 to the Over in their last 14 ballgames. Their last Under came against the same Fordham team they’ll face today, and the Under came entirely due to Fordham’s poor offense: 33% shooting for the game, including a dismal 5-26 from three point range. It’s certainly not like GW is an elite defensive team – no reason to expect another miserable shooting effort from the underdog here. And with Fordham letting go of the rope completely on defense of late – allowing a truly ugly 57% shooting in their last five games – there’s ample reason to believe that this game gets Over the total; a relatively high scoring affair. It’s also worth noting that both of these teams connect from the free throw line at a 70%+ clip. Take the Over. |
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03-03-18 | Michigan v. Michigan State OVER 135.5 | 75-64 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Michigan – Michigan State OVER (#635-636) (abbreviated write-up for this early tip-off) The concept here is simple. Most teams struggle offensively against Michigan State’s stout defense; a ‘D’ that has held opponents to 64 points per game on 36.4% shooting for the full season. The Spartans rank in the Top 10 nationally in numerous key statistical categories, and there’s rarely upward pressure on their totals – they’ve cashed six consecutive Unders; coming into this game off back-2-back grinders against Wisconsin. But John Beilein’s Wolverines have solved the Spartans defense. Michigan hung 82 on Sparty in East Lansing earlier this season despite a modest 42% shooting effort, making only six three pointers. Michigan hung 86 on Sparty in their final meeting last year; consistently creating good shot opportunities against an elite defense. This game is going to be a flat out war, creating the opportunity for late scramble points as well. And Madison Square Garden certainly isn’t a difficult venue for perimeter shooters, especially considering that both teams played on this floor yesterday. Expect a relatively high scoring affair that gets up and Over the total. Take the Over. |
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02-27-18 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina OVER 151.5 | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Miami – North Carolina OVER (#543-544) Here’s the quote from Roy Williams, talking about what North Carolina wants to do in terms of upping their tempo down the stretch of the campaign: We do it every single day and sometimes more than once. I want us to get used to pushing the pace. I'm a little mad at myself. At the beginning of the season, we played with a 15-second shot clock. And I told them I didn't want bad shots. So they had to work exceptionally well to get good shots. We've gotten away from that, so we may try to go back to that a little bit this week." The Tar Heels have only played one game since that quote. They hung 78 on Syracuse in that contest – at the Carrier Dome – at the game cashed every Over bet. They’ve been off since last Wednesday, concentrating on nothing but practice time. It’s surely worth noting the last time they played Miami here in Chapel Hill, UNC hung 96 on the Hurricanes and the game flew Over the total. The betting markets tend to think of Miami as a slower paced team prone to Unders. But the ‘Canes have been more than willing to play uptempo basketball – 11 of their last 14 ACC games have seen the loser get into the 70’s, cashing ten Over tickets in those 14 contests. From a pure pace standpoint, Miami’s offense has been much faster this year than in any recent season, averaging nearly two fewer seconds per shot than last year in ACC play. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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02-12-18 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 211 | 92-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Take New York – Philadelphia UNDER (#701-702) The Knicks offense is pretty ugly right now while Jeff Hornacek plays ‘point guard shuffle’ on a nightly basis and New York tries to execute without injured leading scorer Kristaps Porzingas. Jarrett Jack got the start yesterday at the point in Indiana, with newly acquired Emmanuel Mudiay, underachieving Trey Burke and Belgian rookie Frank Ntilikina getting minutes as well. Prior to yesterday’s offensive outburst (113 points & a 27-11 assist-to-turnover ratio), New York had been held to 96 or less in five straight games while averaging just 87 ppg in their previous five contests; cashing Under bets in each and every one of those ballgames. And while Indiana didn’t play a whole lot of defense against the Knicks yesterday, the 76ers defense is no joke these days, primed to shut New York down. Philly now ranks #4 in the NBA for the full season in points per 100 possessions allowed on defense, allowing 102.8. On their current homestand, that defense has been dynamite, allowing just 91.2 PP/100 while going 3-0 SU and ATS; part of the 76ers 4-1 run to the Under in their last five games and their 4-1 run to the Under in their last five at home. Philly is playing their third game in four days; not expected to push the pace tonight. The Knicks are on the second of back-2-backs, and their offensive execution is bottom tier right now. Expect a relatively low scoring affair that stays UNDER the total. Take the UNDER. |
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02-04-18 | Wisconsin v. Maryland OVER 132 | 63-68 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin – Maryland OVER (#821-822) Abbreviated write-up on a very busy Super Bowl morning… I’m going to keep this one short & sweet. First, neither team is playing a lick of defense right now. The Badgers and Terps rank #11 and #13 in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency; not exactly ‘lockdown’ defenses. Expect both teams to get more than their fair share of transition opportunities and open looks. Second, the Badgers have had a somewhat unlikely roll of the dice when it comes to three point shooting lately. For the full season, they’re well within the ‘normal’ range offensively and defensively with the three-ball; 33% makes, 36% allowed. But in their last five games, neither Wisconsin nor their opponent has shot better than 28% from beyond the arc. That’s a random fluctuation working in our favor here – the Terps have hit 40% from three point range in their last five games…. Lastly, this game is primed to be a foul fest. Both squads have had issues with fouling all year – part of their defensive struggles. Plus, this pointspread range is right in the wheelhouse for some late game ‘foul and three pointer’ shenanigans, should we need them. Take the Over. |
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02-03-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas UNDER 152.5 | 74-79 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Texas – Oklahoma UNDER (#623-624) Abbreviated write-up on a very busy Super Bowl weekend in Vegas. Here’s the quote from Shaka Smart, talking about how he wants to defend Oklahoma’s breakout frosh, point guard Trae Young: “Trae is having a historic season. He’s the engine that makes them go. As good as he is at scoring, he does a phenomenal job moving the ball around. You’ve got to try to limit something he does, either preventing him from getting huge points or setting up his teammates from scoring big.” Texas has been fairly adept at creating defensive gameplans to shut down star players – that’s how Shaka Smart got this job to begin with! And that’s bad news for Young and the Sooners; a team that hasn’t played a single ‘grinder’ all year. In each of Oklahoma’s first 21 games this season, at least one team has reached 80 points, with the Sooners able to push the pace effectively. That’s why Oklahoma currently ranks #5 in the nation in tempo and #4 in the nation in fewest seconds per shot on offense. Texas, in contrast, ranks #275 in pace and #306 in defensive seconds per shot. The Longhorns don’t give up anything in transition, and low post defensive stud Mo Bamba is the nation’s leading shot blocker patrolling the paint. That’s why the Longhorns rank #4 in the nation in defensive efficiency, with Top 20 defensive rankings for opponents effective field goal percentage and blocked shot percentage. Even if the pace is relatively fast here, I’m not expecting much offensive execution. Take the Under. |
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01-31-18 | Connecticut v. UCF OVER 124 | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Take UConn – UCF OVER (#761-762) Tacko Fall might not be a household name in the college basketball betting world, but he probably should be! UCF’s 7-6 center spent most of the season patrolling the paint, swatting away shots, snaring rebounds and leading the Golden Knights to a #4 national ranking in defensive efficiency as of this morning. That #4 defensive efficiency is flat out lying, because Tacko Fall is hurt, out for the year. In the two games since the injury, UCF has flown Over the total both times by an average of 14 points per game. It’s surely worth noting that the Knights just got their best OFFENSIVE player back from an extended injury absence, with BJ Taylor pouring in 37 points over that same two game span. The first meeting between these two teams came three weeks ago -- with Fall in and Taylor out – and was totaled at 124.5. This game is totaled even lower, despite the obvious need for a major market adjustment to UCF’s totals ratings. We don’t need a track meet or a strong shooting game for either team to cash this Over bet. Let’s simply take advantage of a marketplace that is factoring in season long stats far more than they should when it comes to this particular matchup. Take the OVER. |
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01-28-18 | Lakers v. Raptors UNDER 218 | 111-123 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Toronto – LA Lakers UNDER (#807-808) Toronto has a defensive mindset these days, particularly at home. The Raptors have held four of their last five opponents to 97 points or less. Their last three home games stayed Under the total by more than 25 points each time. And they’ve just had a bit of a break, playing only two games during the past eight days. Point guard Fred Van Vleet, talking about the extra practice sessions this week: “I think we got back to our defensive fundamentals.” Head coach Dwayne Casey talked to his team Saturday about being ready from the start against the Lakers. "They're going to come out guns a-blazing. They're a running team." The Raptors transition defense is nothing short of outstanding, and they’re putting extra emphasis on getting back today. Expect the Lakers to be forced to do most of their scoring through their halfcourt offense, not an area of strength these days. LA, too, is putting extra emphasis on defense these days, and it’s paying off – they’ve won four straight and eight of their last ten while going 6-3 to the Under in their last nine. Head coach Luke Walton: "Defensive stops. That is how you win consistently. So many NBA games come down to the end, and the players in this league are so talented that if you are not able to count on getting stops, it is 50-50 who wins those games." The team is buying into Walton’s approach right now. Forward Brandon Ingram: "We're staying together, we're thinking defense first. The coaches talk about it every single day, every time we practice, every time we come into games, and we just talk about the defensive end first before anything.” Take the Under. |
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01-26-18 | Jazz v. Raptors UNDER 208.5 | 97-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Utah – Toronto UNDER (#805-806) It’s no accident that the Jazz have seen their defensive improve by leaps and bounds since Rudy Gobert returned to the lineup last week. Gobert has blocked at least three shots in each of his first four games back; a difference maker in the low post. Utah just held Detroit to 95 points in a game that went to overtime; winning SU despite shooting less than 40% from the floor and making only 12 free throw attempts. If you watched the game, you already know – the Pistons certainly didn’t have many open looks. With Gobert in the lineup, the Jazz have been totaled higher than 205 only twice -- once against the Rockets, once against the Clippers; two very clear ‘Over’ teams when it comes to both offensive efficiency and pace. Utah is most assuredly not an elite offensive team, especially with perimeter sharpshooter and second leading scorer Rodney Hood expected to miss again tonight. Yet we’re looking at a total north of 205 tonight in a game where the Raptors, too, are primed to bring a strong defensive effort. Toronto has held three of their last four opponents to 93 points or less. Their last two home games stayed Under the total by more than 25 points each time. And they’ve just had a bit of a break, with only one game during the past week. Point guard Fred Van Vleet, talking about the extra practice sessions this week: “I think we got back to our defensive fundamentals.” Every meeting between these two teams since 2015 has been totaled between 190.5 and 198.5, yet the markets have this one priced a full ten points higher. Let’s take advantage! Take the Under |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39 | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -103 | 55 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Minnesota – Philadelphia UNDER (#313-314) You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure this one out. We’ve got two backup quarterbacks facing off against two elite defenses with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Both coaches are well aware that this game is about avoiding key mistakes every bit as much (if not more) than it is about making big plays. Both teams have excellent kickers and excellent red zone defensive statistics. Quite frankly, I’m expecting a field goal fest! Minnesota suffered a key injury on their offensive line last week, losing starting guard Nick Easton. That means Mike Remmers will shift inside to guard this week and undrafted second year pro Rashod Hill will take over at right tackle. That’s bad news against Philly’s deep, stout defensive front with the likes of Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Fletcher Cox, Tim Jernigan, Chris Long, Beau Allen and Derek Barnettt primed to rotate in and out of the lineup all evening long. Adam Thielen has been a true difference maker for the Minnesota offense all year, leading the team (by a wide margin) in targets, catches, receiving yards, first down receptions and 20+ yard receptions. He’s hurt (lower back), very questionable for Sunday’s game. Even if he plays, I’m not convinced he’ll be fully effective. QB Case Keenum goes from inside the dome to outside. And, after Keenum nearly blew the game last week, with his top receiver limited or out, missing a key pass blocker from the offensive line, I’m expecting a run heavy approach from the Vikings offense this week. Let’s not forget that in two previous games against Top 10 defenses on the road this season, Keenum struggled mightily in both contests. Career journeymen don’t become QB studs overnight. Based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics, Philly’s defense ranks in the top quartile of the NFL against the run, against the pass and overall. They’ve been nothing short of outstanding in the red zone in recent weeks, classic Jim Schwartz; winning the game last week thanks to a late red zone stop. Vikings kicker Kai Forbath is a legit weapon. I expect him to get his fair share of opportunities in a game where field goals are likely to be our friends. Minnesota’s defense grades out even better than Philly’s; #2 overall and Top 5 against both the run and the pass. The Vikings also finished the season with the #2 red zone defense in the NFL, holding foes out of the end zone nearly 57% of the time. Nick Foles (based on MY eye test) appears to be the weaker of the two backup QB’s in this game, and in his only previous game against a quality defense – last week – the Eagles gained only 334 total yards and were held to three field goals and a single touchdown. The fact that they won the game playing that way gives me confidence that we’ll see a similar gameplan this week. First team to 20 wins…..Big Ticket: Take the UNDER |
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01-18-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 89-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boston – Philadelphia UNDER (#503-504) Both teams can be expected to bring their ‘A’ game on defense tonight. And when these two teams bring their ‘A’ games on defense, we can expect points to be very hard to come by, start to finish. The Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA, by a fairly wide margin. But Boston is coming off a dismal defensive effort in their home loss to the Pelicans earlier in the week. Head Coach Brad Stevens, following the game: “I thought our lack of defense started in transition all night. I thought we were really, really behind for whatever reason. They were pushing the tempo. They did a great job of that. They only played eight guys, so we have no excuses not to be back. But I thought they really hurt us in transition.” I’m VERY interested in betting Boston games Under the total following a rare ‘defensive meltdown’ game. Let’s not forget that the Celtics literally have an elite defender at every position. Based on the ‘real +/-‘ advanced metric defensive stats, the likes of Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Aron Baynes all rank among the top players at their respective positions defensively. 76ers head coach Brett Brown knows what’s coming. His Sixers are 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS against the Celtics this season because they haven’t been able to solve Boston’s defense. His quote, following the loss in London last week: “'This team that we just played today is the best defensive team in the NBA and we felt all of that. When you look at their individual defensive players to a man, they're as strong positionally as any team in the NBA.'' But the Sixers defense is no joke either. Two years ago, Philly ranked #25 in the NBA defensively on a points per 100 possessions basis. Last year, they ranked #17. This year, Philly is at #5; a notable and significant improvement. That’s bad news for Boston on a night where starting point guard Kyrie Irving is listed as ‘questionable’ with a sore shoulder. Prior to the uptempo affair in London last week, both previous Celtics – 76ers matchups this season were dead nuts Unders, cashing by a combined 28.5 points. I expect tonight’s game to be a defensive scrum, not a high octane shootout. Big Ticket: Take the Under. |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings OVER 45.5 | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 100 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – New Orleans OVER (#307-308) For an extended stretch this season, the Saints defense was a major story, one of the biggest surprises in the NFL. This defense ranked #31 in the NFL last year based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics. This year, they finished with a #8 ranking, and they spent the better part of two months pretty much dominating as they won eight straight mid-season games. That was then, this is now. The Saints defense has been riddled with key injuries down the stretch. They’ve lost their defensive playcaller, LB AJ Klein. They’ve lost arguably their top playmaker in the secondary, safety Kenny Vaccaro. And they’ve lost pass rushing force and run stuffer Alex Okafor off their defensive line. The normal, natural result of those defensive injuries has been a declining defense. In their last two games – both intense, playoff atmosphere contests – the Saints have allowed 868 yards and a truly awful 21-35 on third down conversions against a Bucs team just playing out the string and a Panthers team with the weakest cast of receivers for any playoff team. Had Carolina been able to execute in the red zone with those limited receivers, the Saints season would already be over. And it’s surely worth noting that the New Orleans defense has been on the field for a whopping 152 snaps over the past two weeks; anything but fresh here. Minnesota can execute in the red zone (Top 10 in TD percentage); a dramatically underrated offense for most of the season. Plain and simple -- Case Keenum doesn’t attract much enthusiasm from the betting markets, a big part of the reason why Minnesota was the single best pointspread team in the NFL this year. New Orleans, too, is excellent in the red zone thanks to their offensive balance – an elite running game and an elite QB are a hard combo to stop, and I have no hesitation betting ON the Drew Brees/Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram trio to score some points. When the Saints played here back in Week 1, they marched the ball up and down the field, but they only converted on one of their five red zone opportunities. The Vikings, too, failed repeatedly in the red zone, notching only three TD’s on six tries. The game STILL cashed Over bets. Expect better red zone execution this time around, leading to another Over as the Vikings and Saints collide. Take the Over. |
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01-11-18 | Clippers v. Kings OVER 210.5 | 121-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Sacramento – LA Clippers OVER (#505-506) Before the Kings 99-86 loss to the Lakers earlier in the week, head coach Dave Joerger told reporters that he wanted to see a faster pace. What happened? A brick fest, filled with turnovers, as Sacramento shot less than 35% from the floor while giving it away16 times. Even 25 Lakers turnovers couldn’t make up for their shooting woes. That being said, the pace was there for a MUCH higher scoring affair than what actually transpired. Joerger, prior to tonight’s game: “We really try to pick up our stuff in practice, so the game almost feels a little slower. And try to make them play, fast, fast, fast and make mistakes and that's OK, because we learn from them.” Clearly, we can expect the Kings to continue pushing the pace vs. the Clippers this evening. For a team that ranks #27 out of 30 NBA teams in full season pace rating, a change of pace to uptempo basketball will take time for an appropriate market adjustment, especially after that debacle vs. the Lakers that stayed 28 points Under the total. The Clippers have been an Over machine in recent weeks, cashing nine Overs in their last ten ballgames. In their last five games, LA has averaged 113 ppg and allowed 113 ppg. The losing team in Clippers games scored at least 105 in all five of those contests. With all the injuries the Clips have suffered this season, Doc Rivers hasn’t been able to create any defensive rhythm for his squad, but they’ve still got plenty of shooters. They hung 122 on the Kings just after Christmas in another game that cashed Over bets with ease. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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12-30-17 | St. Mary's v. BYU UNDER 140.5 | 74-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Take BYU – St Mary’s UNDER (#619-620) For further reading, check out this links from a local source: http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/basketball/men/byu-men-s-hoops-cougars-and-gaels-will-have-similar/article_9ade56e0-56ea-538d-9371-e24b8eb009c3.html St Mary’s is anything BUT a ‘push the tempo’ type of squad in the Randy Bennett era, a team that relies on feisty defense and a slow paced, patient halfcourt offense for their success. That’s worked repeatedly against BYU, including a 3-0 SU and ATS sweep against the Cougars last year. The final two games were both totaled in a similar range to what we’ve got today: 141 and 140.5. Those games produced 131 and 127 points, both staying Under the total by double digit margins. BYU spent most of the first 12 years under Dave Rose doing the exact opposite, pushing the pace at every opportunity. This year is different, as clearly evidenced by these quotes (and their 6-2 mark to the Under in their last eight ballgames): Leading scorer Yoeli Childs: “They’re going to come out and see a totally different team. A team that shares the ball a little bit better and plays with a better pace. I think that we’ve worked really hard, especially on the defensive end, at being able to guard what they do.” Second leading scorer Elijah Bryant: “During the summer we’ve kind of taken a different approach and focused on defense to be able to win those low-scoring games. That’s what Saint Mary’s does. Their pace is one of the lowest in the country, and we’re ready for that.” This total is lined exactly where it was last year, but we can expect a much slower pace from BYU and much more defensive intensity. Take the Under |
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12-30-17 | Washington v. Penn State UNDER 55 | 28-35 | Loss | -108 | 51 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Penn State - Washington UNDER (#261-262). My premise here is two-fold. First, the loss of Joe Morehead matters for Penn State. Second, Washington’s defense is truly elite but their offense is not. Let’s start with #2 first. Away from home, Washington faced two bowl teams this year, Arizona State and Stanford. They scored just 29 points in those two games combined. Washington has a handful of offensive playmakers, most notably RB Myles Gaskin and WR/KR Dante Pettis. What the Huskies did not have — and have not had — is elite QB play with Jake Browning behind center. In two ‘step-up’ games vs quality defenses last year, Browning was terrible both times, unable to move the offense in ugly losses vs USC and Alabama. This year was more of the same - lots of big numbers against weak defensive foes, but not much production in their few 'step up in class' games. I do not trust this offense to put up points in bunches here. But I sure do trust this Huskies defense, a unit with loads of future NFL talent and plenty of swagger to their step. We’re talking about a team that allowed more than 16 points only three times all year, despite facing a steady diet of high octane PAC-12 foes. Penn State’s offense was brilliantly called all year, a HUGE part of their big numbers. After more than a month off, without Morehead keeping defenses off balance, facing an elite stop unit, I do NOT expect the Nittany Lions to march up and down the field. This quote stands out, even though it’s from a different team in a different game. Here’s what Missouri defensive end Marcell Frazier had to say after the Tigers offense was stymied in their bowl loss to Texas after putting up huge numbers for the previous two months, talking about the offensive coordinator and OL coach that skipped town for new jobs:"Realistically, Heupel left us in a bad position. It is what it is. And Elarbee left us in a bad position. As men they have to look in the mirror. They let a whole bunch of teenage boys down, 18- and 19-year-olds. They left and they have to do what's best for their family, but I think it showed up a little bit today. We were doing things [on offense] we haven't done since maybe the Auburn game. It showed up. We practiced for almost a whole month without an O-coordinator or an O-line coach after having one of the most dominating offenses in the nation. It's tough.” Take the UNDER. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State v. Memphis OVER 65.5 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Memphis - Iowa State OVER (#259-260). Memphis is a ‘dead nuts’ Over team, 9-3 to the Over this season. The Tigers play fast, averaging more than 75 offensive plays per game. They have a bevy of skill position talent starting with senior QB Riley Ferguson, who threw for more than 3900 yards at 9.0 yards per attempt with 36 TD strikes. The Tigers run a balanced spread attack, capable of running or throwing on any down. And they’ve moved the football against EVERYBODY, held under 30 points only once all season. Iowa State has faced a handful of spread offenses with strong QB play this season. They haven’t stopped any of them, lit up for more than 500 yards against both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, while allowing 11 touchdowns in those two games. Riley Ferguson isn’t Mason Rudolph or Baker Mayfield when it comes to NFL potential, but don’t sell the Tigers QB short against this caliber of defense. I expect Memphis to get into the 30’s here. The reason Memphis lost twice to UCF this year was on the defensive side of the football, a mediocre stop unit on a good day; lacking both size and speed. That’s a problem against the Cyclones trio of big receivers, with their top three pass catchers all standing 6-4 or taller. Iowa State has all kinds of depth and versatility in their receiving corps, with seven guys catching at least 25 balls, and their offense is balanced with David Montgomery’s strong legs in the running game. Don’t expect many stops in this one, and look for the red zone opportunities for BOTH teams to result in touchdowns, not field goals. Take the Over. |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida OVER 66 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 69 h 37 m | Show | |
Take South Florida – Texas Tech OVER (#221-222) The USF defense put up some strong numbers against the pass this year. The Texas Tech defense, statistically speaking, was a good notch or two better this year than it’s been in recent seasons. I’m not buying that either defense is as good as advertised, yet the stats ensure that this total isn’t going to skyrocket between now and kickoff. And given the expected pace of play in this ballgame – USF ranks #2 in the country, running 85 plays per game, and Texas Tech ranks #20 at 78 plays per game – we can expect the offenses to rule the day, not the defenses. USF puts up points in bunches, hanging 30+ on their foes nine times while averaging 41 points per game, They are balanced – a big problem for the Red Raider defense, a stop unit that allowed 56 points in their last bowl appearance – averaging 226 rushing yards and 328 passing yards per game, led by senior QB Quinton Flowers. Six different players caught a TD pass of more than 20 yards; not an easy offense to stop even for a Big 12 defense. The Texas Tech defense improved by 12 points per game, allowing 43 points in 2016 but less than 32 ppg in 2017. They were more than 100 yards per game better defensively than last year. And yet, at no point this season did the Red Raider defense pass the ‘eye’ test. Just about every good offense they faced moved the ball up an down the field against them. But QB Nik Shimonek threw for more than 300 yards per game; a multi-year starter who is very comfortable running Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. In a battle of senior QB’s who can chuck the football around, we can expect a high scoring shootout! Take the Over. |
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12-19-17 | Cavs v. Bucks OVER 216.5 | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – Cleveland OVER (#505-506) These two teams have played twice already this season, cashing Over bets both times. The Cavs have dissected the Bucks defense like so many others that they face – without trouble, hanging 124 and 116 on Milwaukee in those two meetings. And frankly, most teams are scoring on the Bucks without too much trouble these days – they’ve allowed 115+ in each of their last three contests, with opponents hitting better than 48% of their shots against Jason Kidd’s squad in their last five games. Milwaukee didn’t have point guard Eric Bledsoe on the roster in those first two meetings. With him in the lineup, their offensive production has been transformed without a dramatic increase in their pace of play. The result of that? Milwaukee has now scored 100+ in 12 straight games, 10-1-1 to the Over during that span. That’s an ongoing trend that has gotten zero publicity and is attracting no betting market attention because it’s not about the advanced metrics -- the Bucks pace of play isn’t going through a major transformation. Here’s the kicker, the quote from Coach Kidd AFTER this run of Overs for Milwaukee: “Right now for some reason we're just not making open shots, but we've got to keep getting those shots and hopefully they turn into makes.” Against the Cavs shoddy defense (#27 in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.9 points per 100 possessions), look for those shots to ‘turn into makes’ tonight! Take the OVER. |
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12-19-17 | Illinois-Chicago v. Illinois State OVER 144.5 | 70-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Illinois State – Illinois-Chicago OVER (#521-522) My clients and I cashed a winner betting Illinois State Over the total at BYU less than two weeks ago. Here’s a brief excerpt from that write-up: “Illinois State wants to get out and run, pushing the tempo at every opportunity. Head coach Dan Muller wants to play his style tonight, coming off a game against Tulsa where the Redbirds were able to force their opponent into playing at their preferred uptempo pace: " We got them (Tulsa) sped up a little bit. The press is going to be good for us as we get healthier and I can rest guys some more. I hope we can press more." The Redbirds followed up their BYU Over with Overs against Murray State and Ole Miss in their last two games, pulling the outright upset in Oxford against the Rebels largely as a result of their switch to an uptempo pace. This is not a good defensive team; neither is their opponent, Illinois-Chicago, a Flames team that has allowed opponents to hit 50% of their shots against them over their last five games and 56% shooting in three previous road games (all of which FLEW Over the total). Expect fireworks. Take the OVER. |
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12-17-17 | Patriots v. Steelers OVER 53.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take New England – Pittsburgh OVER (#325-326) Fact #1: Tom Brady has dominated the Steelers defense like no other team in the NFL. In six starts against the Steelers in the Mike Tomlin era, Tom Brady has a 19-0 TD-INT ratio while averaging 315 passing yards per game. Fact #2: The Patriots get Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup this week off his one game suspension. Clearly, he’s a difference maker in this offense. Fact #3: Since Joe Haden got hurt, the Steelers have allowed more 20+ yard completions than any team in the NFL despite facing Brett Hundley, Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco during that span. That trio had a cumulative QB rating of 102.2 against Pittsburgh’s defense. To put that in perspective, Pittsburgh’s defense has just made a trio of struggling QB’s look like Aaron Rodgers (103.2 QB rating this year) or Carson Wentz (101.9). Fact #4: Joe Haden is very questionable to play on Sunday, especially when we look at his quote from earlier in the week. “It feels sore, but we’ll figure it out. It’s getting there. We’re in the playoffs. We have stuff to look forward to. I don’t want to go out there half-assed and be out there hurting the team, hurting myself.” Fact #5: The Patriots defense still ranks dead last against the pass according to the Football Outsider best advanced metric stats, the #30 defense overall. Pittsburgh ranks in the Top 10 in both running and passing based on FBO numbers, and have the #3 offense overall. This offense is finally in sync, averaging just shy of 34 points per game in their last four contests. No surprise then, that the Steelers are riding a 4-0 Over run into their matchup with the Pats. Synopsis & Opinion: Neither defense can be trusted to get stops. Both offenses are as potent as any in the NFL, and neither coach is likely to slow down their aggressive playcalling with a lead, knowing what their opponent is capable of doing. The weather report is fine for a December evening in Pittsburgh. Expect fireworks! Big Ticket: Take the OVER. |
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12-17-17 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 40 | 27-10 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Baltimore OVER (#321-322) You can take your whole season’s worth of Cleveland Browns offensive statistics and shove them where the sun don’t shine. Whatever the Browns offense was before big play WR’s Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon got onto the field, it’s a very different caliber of offense since they returned! All of a sudden, we’ve seen plenty of room to run for Isaiah Crowell: 5.9, 4.1 and 6.3 yards per carry over the past three weeks – he gained his season high in yardage last week. All of a sudden DeShone Kizer is throwing touchdown to go along with his interceptions – four of his nine TD passes have come in the last two weeks. All of a sudden RB Duke Johnson is having an impact in the passing game, with at least four catches out of the backfield in four of the last five weeks. This Browns offense is MUCH better than it was for most of the season. They’re a winless team in their home finale against a divisional rival, most assuredly a ‘step-up’ spot. And they’re facing a Ravens defense without shutdown corner Jimmy Smith and nickle/dime corner Maurice Canady, a defense that just allowed 59 points over the last two weeks in a pair of games that flew Over the total by 20.5 and 34 points. You can take your full season Baltimore Ravens offensive statistics and shove them right next to the Browns offensive stats, fully meaningless in current realties yet still holding sway over the betting marketplace. No team in the NFL has scored more than the Ravens have over the last two weeks. In their last six games, Baltimore is averaging more than 30 points per game. Flacco has been ‘bombs away’ to his receivers, hitting nine different pass catchers last week. RB Alex Collins now ranks #3 in the NFL with a 5.1 yards per carry average. Danny Woodhead has had an impact since his return from injury. Both Mike Wallace and Jeremy Maclin are expected to start. Wallace is still being listed as questionable in many places (deflating this total, but here’s his quote after practice on Thursday: “Man, I’m playing on Sunday, you don’t even have to ask.” When the season long offensive stats are lying, like they are for BOTH of these teams, there’s legitimate value on the Over. Throw in a relatively mild afternoon with little wind – even if we do see some light rain -- and the case for a high scoring affair is perfectly clear. Take the OVER. |
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12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State OVER 62 | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 197 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Arkansas St – Middle Tennessee St OVER (#209-210) We can throw out most of Middle Tennessee’s offensive stats. Their senior quarterback Brent Stockstill – a four year starter and the coach’s son – missed six games in the middle of the season due to injury. The Blue Raiders went 2-4 in those games, and they were held to 23 points or less five times during that span, with backup QB John Urzua throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes. Brent Stockstill returned to the field at the beginning of November. In the four games to close out the regular season with Stockstill behind center, Middle Tennessee hung at least 30 points on their foes all four times, and Stockstill compiled a 10-3 TD-INT ratio. So the aggregate, season long stats for the Blue Raiders – which totals are based on – still has a healthy dose of Urzua’s numbers, numbers that are meaningless for the purposes of this bowl game. It’s surely worth noting that Middle Tennessee has played wild shootouts in each of their last two bowl games, losing 45-31 to Western Michigan two years ago and 52-35 to Hawaii last year. There’s little reason to think that the Blue Raiders defense is going to step up with a strong effort this time around – the better offenses that MTSU has faced this year have consistently moved the football up and down the field against them. Make no mistake about it – the Red Wolves have a good offense. Blake Anderson’s squad finished the season ranked #6 in the nation in passing yards, #11 in total yards and #15 in points per game. Junior QB Justice Hansen – an Oklahoma transfer with potential NFL upside – threw for more than 3600 yards and 34 TD’s. Six different receivers caught at least three touchdowns, and the offense worked even in a ‘step-up-in-class’ game at Nebraska, a wild 43-36 shootout. No surprise here if the Camillia Bowl is every bit as wild! The short turnaround between the end of the regular season and the start of bowl season should help these two potent offenses to stay in rhythm. Stockstill, talking about the difference between this year and their post- New Year’s Day Bowl last year: “It's way better (this year). We like to treat it like a bye week. We know that we're going to take on a tough opponent, but we're excited that it's right around the corner." Take the Over. |
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12-08-17 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 197.5 | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Boston – San Antonio OVER (#515-516) There’s a fair bit of talk in the betting world about how good these two defenses are; hence the relatively low total tonight. But I haven’t seen or heard much about how well these two teams are playing offensively right now; two ‘bet-on’ squads on the offense end of the court. The Spurs got eight different players into double digits in their 117-105 win over the Heat on Wednesday, and dished 30 assists as a team. Manu Ginobili: “The ball really moved”. Gregg Popovich: “Getting 30 assists is always wonderful….it is great to see.” Boston had 25 assists on 36 made baskets against the Mavs in their last outing, also showing tremendous ball movement and getting a steady diet of good looks at the basket. Al Hoford: “This is good. We want to keep building on it." It’s surely worth noting that the shorthanded Celtics have scored 108+ six times in their last seven ballgames; part of an 8-2 run to the OVER in their last ten contests. When we think of Brad Stevens facing off against Gregg Popovich, we don’t tend to think of ‘shootouts’, yet that’s exactly what this series has produced. Each of the last four meetings between these two squads has flown Over the total. None of those games were lined higher than 199.5, yet the losing team broke 100 in three of those four meetings. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the Over. |
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12-06-17 | Illinois State v. BYU OVER 145 | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Take BYU – Illinois State OVER (#547-548) Illinois State wants to get out and run, pushing the tempo at every opportunity. BYU used to play the same style, but head coach Dave Rose has been doing his best to slow the Cougars pace this season. That being said, the last time BYU faced an uptempo foe on this court, they played a 95-88 shootout against Niagara, a game that flew Over the total by more than 35 points. No surprise here if we see a similar flow tonight. Coach Rose called this matchup “worrisome” for the Cougars because of the Redbirds’ proficiency in transition and also because it falls in the middle of three big in-state matchups – off Utah State, with Weber State and Utah on deck. Illinois State head coach Dan Muller wants to play his style tonight, coming off a game against Tulsa where the Redbirds were able to force their opponent into playing at their preferred uptempo pace: "It's not only a good, quality opponent, but the atmosphere is going to be terrific. That is something that's going to be really good for this team…. We got them (Tulsa) sped up a little bit. The press is going to be good for us as we get healthier and I can rest guys some more. I hope we can press more." Take the OVER. |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 46.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 32 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle – Philly OVER (#377-378) I understand that both of these teams cashed Under tickets last week, in large part due to strong defensive showings against weak offensive opponents. But make no mistake about it – the Seahawks are an ‘Over’ team these days, and so is Philadelphia! Seattle hasn’t been able to run the ball all year. Russell Wilson has been their leading rusher three times in their last five games. Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls are at 2.5 and 2.6 yards per carry for the season. The Seahawks know perfectly well that they’re not going beat the Eagles by running the football into the teeth of their strong defensive front. This is a Russell Wilson game for Seattle, plain and simple. And, for all the criticism that he has received, Russell Wilson continues to make big plays, week after week. It’s not like Seattle is short on downfield receiving talent with Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson combining for 32 receptions of 20+ yards between them. And it’s not like the Seahawks haven’t gone ‘pass first’ before when their running game wasn’t working – they’ve done it in each of the last two seasons, closing out the 2016 regular season on a 9-5 run to the Over and the 2015 campaign featured a 6-2 midseason run to the Over. Seattle’s defense, despite their strong showing last week against the offensively weak 49ers, is an injury riddled MASH unit right now. Cliff Avril, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor matter A LOT; a trio of pro bowl candidates that are now sitting on the sidelines. Throw in injuries to Bobby Wagner, Dion Jordan, Shaquill Griffin, Earl Thomas and others, and we’re talking about a Seahawks defense that’s in a world of hurt right now. That’s bad news against Carson Wentz and the red hot Philly offense; a team that has hung 30+ on their foes in each of their last five ballgames. The Eagles haven’t scored more points than any other team in the NFL this year by accident; the #3 offense according to Football Outsiders. And the Eagles – most notably emerging star QB Carson Wentz – gained some valuable experience in a 26-15 loss on this field to Seattle last year. Wentz: “It’s a huge help (having played here last year). … It’s definitely loud. It’s quite the atmosphere. It’s a fun place to play. Most guys have been there now, so that’ll pay dividends in just our week of prep, knowing how much we need to emphasize hand signals and communicating things non-verbally.” In a game where both coaches are well aware that they’ll need to put up points in bunches, look for a high octane, big play filled Shootout on Sunday Night in Seattle. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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11-28-17 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 208 | 77-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Utah – Denver OVER (#507-508) When Rudy Gobert got hurt, the Utah Jazz ranked #2 in the NBA in points per possession allowed on defense, an elite defensive ballclub. In eight games without their low post shotblocker, the Jazz rank #19 in points per possession allowed on defense and #24 in percentage of available rebounds that they’ve nabbed, leading to easy putbacks off the offensive glass. Six of Utah’s eight opponents since the Gobert injury have scored 106+ against them and the only two that didn’t – Orlando and Chicago – rank among the weakest offensive teams in basketball. Facing a Nuggets team that wants to push the pace at every reasonable opportunity, look for the Jazz defense to get exposed once again this evening. But Utah’s offense has improved by leaps and bounds of late, hanging 110+ three times in their last four ballgames. Head coach Quin Snyder, after the Jazz hung 121 on the Bucks over the weekend: “I thought we were unbelievably unselfish. Offensively we were really connected and trying to help each other.” It’s surely worth noting that Utah has set season highs for assists in a game twice in their last four contests. And it’s also worth noting that the Nuggets defense on the road has been hideous (125+ allowed twice on their recent three game trip), a big part of the reason they’ve been moneyburners (3-6 ATS) on the highway all year. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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11-26-17 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 44.5 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 28 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle – San Francisco OVER (#264-265) There are two key factors in play for me in this game; an Over waiting for kickoff. First, the Seahawks just morphed into an Over team. They haven’t been able to run the ball all year. Russell Wilson has been their leading rusher three times I their last four games. Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls are at 2.5 and 2.6 yards per carry for the season. Last week, they finally gave up on the run, with only 17 carries from the backs, compared to 52 runs/throws from Wilson. That’s a big deal, because Russell Wilson makes big plays. It’s not like this team is short on downfield receiving talent with Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson combining for 29 receptions of 20+ yards between them. And it’s not like the Seahawks haven’t gone ‘pass first’ before when their running game wasn’t working – they’ve done it in each of the last two seasons, closing out the 2016 regular season on a 9-5 run to the Over and the 2015 campaign featured a 6-2 midseason run to the Over. Second, I want Kyle Shanahan’s offense off a bye week against a Seahawks defense that is riddled with injuries. Cliff Avril, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor matter A LOT; a trio of pro bowl candidates that are now sitting on the sidelines. Throw in injuries to Bobby Wagner, Jarran Reed, Michael Wilhoite, Shaquill Griffin and others, and we’re talking about a Seahawks defense that’s in a world of hurt right now. Kyle Shanahan got the 49ers job because of his track record as a brilliant offensive mind and a top notch play caller. San Fran hasn’t had the offensive personnel in place to implement much of Shanahan’s playbook, but their just concluded bye week gave them a chance to tweak and adjust. Shanahan also made the right call to keep CJ Beathard as the starting QB, not Jimmy Garappolo, with the 49ers coming off their best offensive game of the season – a 31 point outburst -- prior to their bye. Shanahan: “I did go into the weekend and all week and into Monday considering Jimmy But definitely the way that last game went, I knew it was going to make it easier for me to stick with what we’ve been doing, because I think we’ve made a stride in that way. Beathard: “Being a rookie in an NFL offense and starting the first year, the more you play, the more your playbook expands, the more you can do. This will be my fifth start. I can handle a little more week in, week out. Coach knows that as well.” Tight end George Kittle: “C.J., he’s rolling right now. It’s going to stay that way.” Seattle is still being totaled like the defensive minded, offensively anemic squad they were earlier in the campaign. San Fran has scored 10 points or less in half of their games this season, not a squad that the markets are excited about betting Overs with. But it all together and we’re looking at a particularly strong Over wager at the current number, worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager. Take the OVER. |
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11-25-17 | Blazers v. Wizards UNDER 203.5 | 108-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Portland – Washington UNDER (#705-706) If you’re a regular client of mine, you already know the drill. We’ve been riding the Wizards Under of late, an emerging trend that has been playing great dividends in recent weeks. Washington had cashed nine consecutive Unders (very quietly, waaaaaaay underneath the radar) prior to their last game against Charlotte. The defensive effort wasn’t there against the Hornets, resulting in a 129-124 overtime defeat that flew over the total in regulation. Now the Wizards have lost three of their last four. Sparkplug point guard John Wall has been shut down for a week or two, but Wall left his teammates with this quote, following the Wizards loss to Charlotte: “It’s terrible. The fault was defensively, giving up offensive rebounds and those 50-50 balls…..That’s where they won the game.” It’s surely worth noting that prior to allowing the 129 vs. Charlotte, Washington had allowed 100 points or less in each of their previous seven contests. Wall’s absence (with Tim Frazier taking over as the starting point guard), leaves Washington much weaker (and much slower) on offense. This has all the makings of a ‘step-up’ defensive spot. And their opponent, Portland, currently ranks #3 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, despite a wild 127-125 shootout in Brooklyn yesterday. Damian Lillard, following that victory: “I think we played a really good offensive game….. We just gotta figure out how to have those kind of offensive games and not lose the defense.” Prior to yesterday’s game, the Blazers, like the Wizards, had been bringing it every night on the defensive end, holding each of their previous nine foes to 101 points or less. With both teams likely to step up defensively here, let’s ride this Wizards Run of Unders one more time. Take the UNDER. |
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11-20-17 | Wizards v. Bucks UNDER 207 | 99-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Milwaukee UNDER (#513-514) My clients and I have cashed a handful of winning bets riding the Wizards under-the-radar 78-0 Run to the Under. I have no hesitation coming right back with another Under wager on Monday, a game where Wizards sparkplug point guard John Wall is likely to be limited (knee) if he suits up at all. Let me start with an excerpt from my Wizards Under write-up from yesterday. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way. They’ve cashed eight straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight.” “John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following a win at Miami: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)." Wall didn’t suit up yesterday, but the Wizards defense was still intense, holding Toronto to 40 second half points; another game that finished double digits Under the total. He might play tonight; I’m comfortable riding this Under trend whether Wall suits up or not. And the Bucks certainly play right into the ‘defensive mindset’ expectation this evening after a defensive no-show on Saturday at Dallas; the first time in five games that they had allowed more than 103 points. Bottom line – I’m going to ride this emerging Wizards Under trend, with the markets not seeming to show much interest in it…..yet! Take the Under. |
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11-19-17 | Wizards v. Raptors UNDER 212.5 | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Toronto UNDER (#703-704) My clients and I have cashed several winning bets riding the Wizards under-the-radar 7-0 Run to the Under. I have no hesitation coming right back with another Under wager in early start action today, a game where Wizards sparkplug point guard John Wall will be limited (knee) if he suits up at all. Let me start with an excerpt from my Wizards Under write-up from Friday Night. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way. They’ve cashed seven straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight.” “John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following a win at Miami in the first half of this home & home set: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)." But Brooks was not amused by the Wizards defensive effort against Miami in the rematch on Friday, despite the fact that the Heat were held to 91 points on 41% shooting. “We got down on ourselves. When we got down on ourselves, we put our heads down instead of running back and making up for it on the other end. The stats basically tell you that. They had 19 fast-break points in the first half." I’m expecting a step-up effort defensively from the Wizards today, and the Raptors just held the Knicks to 84 points on Friday Night in a strong defensive showing of their own. Bottom line – I’m going to ride this emerging Wizards Under trend, with the markets not seeming to show much interest in it…..yet! Take the Under. |
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11-19-17 | Chiefs v. Giants OVER 45 | 9-12 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 14 m | Show | |
Take KC – New York Giants OVER (#453-454) I don’t trust this Chiefs defense one iota. KC has gone 1-3 SU since their 5-0 start because they haven’t been able to stop anybody. A struggling Raiders offense that hadn’t worked in more than a month picked apart the KC pass defense to the tune of 417 yards and 31 points. The following week, Oakland was shut down again. Then a Broncos team with no passing game whatsoever and an injury riddled, struggling offensive line run the ball all night against the Chiefs; to the tune of 5.7 yards per carry, 177 yards on the ground. The following week, Denver’s offense couldn’t move the football. Then the Chiefs faced Dallas right before their bye. It was more of the same: four TD’s in four red zone tries behind a balanced attack. Even after the bye, make no mistake about it – KC does NOT have a good defense; unable to stop the run OR the pass right now. From a yards per play standpoint, KC is tied for #31 in the NFL on defense. And the Giants offense that finally moved the football last week: 19 first downs, 374 yards, 5.9 yards per play; scoring two TD’s in three red zone tries. The Chiefs are tied with the Saints for with the most explosive offense in the league, averaging 6.2 yards per play. That’s bad news for the Giants defense – they’re the ones tied with KC at #31 in the NFL, allowing a full six yards per play. The G-men have shown plenty of defensive quit in recent weeks, allowing 82 points in their last two ballgames. The G-men are a veteran squad that expected better this season; showing a clear disconnect with the coaching staff. Expect a handful of big play TD’s and a minimal number of red zone stops….. Take the Over. |
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11-17-17 | Pelicans v. Nuggets OVER 220.5 | 114-146 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans – Denver OVER (#719-720) Denver’s season long numbers show ‘middle of the pack’ pace ratings; not an uptempo, breakneck type of pace. New Orleans has played faster than Denver, but the Pelicans, too, haven’t played at a blistering pace on a consistent basis – yet! Both teams are playing faster now. New Orleans just got Rajon Rondo back from injury, giving them another strong passer in the backcourt. Big men Boogie and Brow are both enjoying CAREER high offensive efficiency numbers, finally fully acclimated to Alvin Gentry’s offense. And the results are very clear. The Pelicans have reached 111 four times in their last five games while shooting at a 52% clip, a stellar offensive ballclub right now. Denver’s early season numbers were weak on the offensive end of the court, and they cashed five consecutive unders to open the season, held to 105 or less in every game. That was then, this is now. On their last homestand, the Nuggets hung 129 on Toronto, 108 on Golden State!!, 112 on Brooklyn and 125 on Orlando, showing the type of ball movement that made head coach Mike Malone smile. But Denver is coming off a particularly flat effort at Portland on Wednesday, held to 82 points on 35.7% shooting; a wire-2-wire blowout loss. With starting guard Gary Harris back in the lineup this evening, sparkplug Will Barton heads back to his normal role as a primary scorer off the bench. Look for Denver offensive mojo to get back on track here in a highly entertaining uptempo Friday Night Shootout! Take the Over. |
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11-17-17 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 208 | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Miami UNDER (#703-704) Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way. They’ve cashed six straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight. John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following the win at Miami in the first half of this home & home set: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)." Miami had no answers to the Wizards defensive pressure on Wednesday Night, taking one contested shot after the next, failing to reach 20 points in two of the four quarters. But the Heat are taking the challenge of slowing down Wall and Beal very seriously after that duo torched Miami for 53 points on Wednesday. Head coach Eric Spoelstra: “It seemed like they were living in the paint and at the free-throw line.” I’m not expecting that to happen two games in a row against a solid defensive squad. Take the Under. |
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11-15-17 | 76ers v. Lakers UNDER 221 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Take LA Lakers – Philadelphia UNDER (#721-722) The betting markets have been DEAD WRONG about the Lakers totals of late. And with Over money pouring in once again on the Lake-show, I have no hesitation getting involved with an Under bet this evening. Last year, the Lakers finished the season as the worst defensive team of the DECADE based on advanced metric stats. This year, so far, LA ranks #4 in defensive efficiency, holding foes under a point per possession. On their just concluded four game road trip, Over money showed for the Lakers in every single game. They stayed Under the total in Boston by 11.5 points, in Washington by 16.5 points, in Milwaukee by 29 points and in Phoenix by 37.5 points. LA is now 8-3 to the Under in their last eleven ballgames. They’ve just held back-2-back foes Under 100 points; both fast paced teams, holding foes to 43% shooting from the floor in their last five contests. The Lakers offensively are still very much a work in progress with rookie point guard Lonzo Ball still struggling with his shot – this team does not have a go-to scorer anywhere on the roster. This is a dead nuts Under team right now, with the markets continuing to point in the wrong direction. Both LA and Philly play relatively fast, amongst the league leaders in possessions per game – hence the total sitting above 220 as a write this. That’s simply too high for the Lake-show right now; a clear choice for this bettor. Take the UNDER. |
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11-14-17 | Kansas v. Kentucky OVER 152 | 65-61 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Kansas – Kentucky OVER (#529-530) Kentucky is as young as it gets in college basketball, with John Calipari trotting out a starting lineup with five true freshmen. And Calipari is well aware that his young squad is struggling mightily on the defensive end of the court in early season play. His quote: “We’re just getting beat on the dribble by everybody. And defense starts on the ball. It always had. And if you can’t guard the ball it’s hard to win.” The Wildcats want to get out and run, but they haven’t been able to play at their preferred pace in either of their first two ballgames. They faced two slowdown, veteran squads in Utah Valley and Vermont at Rupp Arena to open the season, forcing the Wildcats to execute their halfcourt sets on both ends of the court. Clearly, Kentucky did not pass the ‘we’ve got our halfcourt execution down’ test. Of course, that sets up real value for Wildcats Over bettors tonight, facing a team that plays at a very different pace than the ones they’ve seen so far. Kansas isn’t built to play grinders any more than Kentucky is. With a savvy returning point guard in Devonte Graham, coming off a confidence and chemistry building summer trip to Italy, Bill Self’s squad is primed to run up and down the floor. They hung 56 on Tennessee State in the first HALF of their opener before slowing down the tempo in a blowout victory. Again, the ‘pace’ numbers won’t show Kansas as playing fast in that game because the second half was so slow, offering value for Over bettors here. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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11-13-17 | Kings v. Wizards UNDER 208 | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Sacramento UNDER (#701-702) Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Three of their last four opponents have failed to reach the century mark and they’ve cashed four consecutive Under bets. That’s a streak primed to continue on Monday Night. John Wall, following the Wizards shutdown defensive effort last Thursday: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following their lone defensively weak game during this span, allowing 133 to the Mavericks: “It starts with me and John. We’ve got to come out better and be better leaders on the team. The rest will follow.” Sacramento ranks #29 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, a VERY limited team on that end of the court. They play at the #28 pace in the league – typical Dave Joeger basketball, not looking to push the pace against anybody. Sacto has been held under 100 points six times in their last seven games, and they managed just 83 points on 39% shooting against the Wizards less than three weeks ago, a game that stayed Under 208.5. Expect another Under cash tonight! Take the Under |
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11-09-17 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 228 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Houston OVER (#705-706) When it comes to pace, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, this game has all the makings of a true shootout, from start to finish. Despite their early season struggles, the Cavs currently rank #2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 108.9 points per 100 possessions. Houston ranks #3 in that same category at 108.4 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets offense has been clicking on all cylinders in each of their last three games, hanging 119, 119 and 137 on their last three foes. Head coach Mike D’Antoni, talking about their recent uptick even without Chris Paul on the floor: “The first eight games I don't think we played well. The last three we've played well and now we've just got to keep it going and keep improving.” Defensively, it’s another story entirely. The Cavs rank dead last in the NBA by a wide margin, allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets are better, but they’re certainly no elite defensive squad. Both of these teams spread out the floor and get the ball to open shooters with efficiency. That’s why last year’s two meetings produced 229 and 248 points. From a ‘pace’ standpoint, both of these two squads have been middle of the pack when we look at the full season numbers. But Houston has upped their pace of play in recent games and Cleveland tends to run with anyone who will run with them, as we saw very clearly when Washington went uptempo on them last week; a wild 130-122 shootout that flew Over the total by nearly 30 points. No surprise if we see a similar scoreboard explosion tonight between these two elite offensive squads. Take the Over. |
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11-05-17 | Broncos v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | 23-51 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Philadelphia UNDER (#451-452) My clients and I cashed a ‘wrong side’ winner with the Broncos Over on Monday Night. I’m certainly not going to complain about the result, but that game made it very, very clear – Denver is not built to cash Over bets against anybody these days; an Under team just waiting for kickoff. Yes, the Broncos are making the move to Brock Osweiler at QB this week, the same QB they gave up on and wouldn’t pay two years ago. It’s not likely to matter against the Eagles solid stop unit. Osweiler is not a threat to open up the offense with a downfield passing game – expect a very conservative gameplan from the Broncos here. Denver’s offensive line is in shambles; an injury riddled mess. Their receiving corps is banged up and the running game is spotty at best. This offense hasn’t produced more than the 19 they scored last week (thanks to a last minute, garbage time TD) since Week 2, and they’re likely to struggle controlling the line of scrimmage. It’s surely worth noting that Philly has held two of their last three opponents at home to ten points or less. And it’s also worth noting, given Denver’s ‘run first’ gameplan, that Philly has created 31 tackles for loss on their 111 rushing attempts that they’ve faced over the last six games. We can expect a ‘run first’ gameplan for the Eagles as well, as Philly looks to take pressure off Carson Wentz while getting just acquired RB Jay Ajayi into the mix. But the Broncos have held foes to an NFL low 3.0 yards per carry on the season, winning the battle in the trenches on a weekly basis. They’ve yet to allow a single rushing TD all year, and rank #2 in the NFL at the fewest explosive running plays allowed, giving up only 14 rushes of 10+ yards all season. Denver’s ‘No Fly Zone’ defense is no joke either. This is not a game where we can expect the Eagles offense to march up and down the field either. Expect long drives, not quick strike TD’s and expect red zone field goals, not one TD after the next. Take the Under. |
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11-01-17 | Magic v. Grizzlies OVER 203.5 | 101-99 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Orlando – Memphis OVER (#713-714) Orlando head coach Frank Vogel worked some magic in the preseason, and his roster has surely benefitted from a relatively benign offseason, returning most of their talent from last year. Through the first two weeks of the season, the Magic have the #2 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA, averaging 111 points per 100 possessions. Only the Warriors have been better. And Orlando is playing at the third fastest pace in the NBA – only the ultra uptempo Nets and Suns are playing faster, a huge uptick from last year. Memphis, too, has upped their offensive efficiency in early season play, up a notch or two from where they’ve been in each of the last two seasons. And like Orlando, the Grizzlies have upped their pace, playing more than three possessions per game faster than last year. Memphis is coming off their worst offensive game of the season, hitting just 34% from the floor in a loss to Charlotte. Leading scorers Mike Conley and Marc Gasol hit only 8-33 from the floor between them, scoring only 26 points. It’s surely worth noting that they still hung 99 on the Hornets, despite a miserable game from their top two offensive weapons. Head coach David Fisdale: “It just seemed like we couldn't make a layup when we had an open layup. When we had open threes, we couldn't make open threes." I’m expecting a strong offensive bounceback here, setting the stage for what should be a relatively high scoring affair. Take the Over. |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 42 | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Kansas City OVER (#273-274) The Broncos offense hasn’t worked in recent weeks. They’ve been shut down three times in their last four ballgames, unable to move the football against the Bills, Giants or Chargers defense; held to a combined 26 points in those ballgames. But make no mistake about it – those three defenses are ‘head and shoulders’ ahead of KC these days. The Chiefs rank #30 in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They’ve been bad against the run (#28 defense on Football Outsiders ranking) and the pass (#19), the #25 ranked defense overall. Without a healthy Eric Berry, this is nowhere near an elite stop unit. Two weeks ago, Le’Veon Bell ran through this D like swiss cheese, gaining 179 yards on the ground. Last week, that same stop unit gave up 417 passing yards to Derek Carr, without generating a single sack or interception. This is NOT a ‘bet-on’ defense! Meanwhile, Denver is primed for a bounceback offensive showing after last week’s embarrassing shutout loss in LA. Head coach Vance Joseph: “When you watch the tape, the plays are there to make. It's execution. It's individual play from time to time. I'm not down on the playcalling, by no means. There are plays to be made on tape. What we're doing offensively, I feel good about." Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas: “I think we have good plans, we have to protect Trevor [Siemian] better and make more plays, me included. We have chances and we have to make those plays. I'm going to do everything I can to help us figure it out and get it right. The plays are there, I feel that way." Denver’s offense should get a big boost if, as expected, Emmanuel Sanders is expected to suit up tonight following last week’s absence. Denver had the #1 pass defense in the NFL in 2015 and 2016. This year, without coordinator Wade Phillips, that pass defense has declined to a #17 rating from Football Outsiders. KC is expected to get a pair of starting offensive linemen back on the field this week, and they’ve got, legitimately, pro bowl caliber talent at QB, RB, WR and TE. KC hung 30 and 33 on Denver in their two meetings last year, part of a series history that hasn’t seen an Under cash between these two squads since 2014. Take the OVER. |
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10-28-17 | NC State v. Notre Dame UNDER 59 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Notre Dame – NC State UNDER (#179-180) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Notre Dame last week in their blowout win over USC. The premise was simple. USC was an injury riddled mess on the defensive line. Notre Dame’s biggest strength is their offensive line. No surprise, then, that Notre Dame rushed for more than 300 yards for the third consecutive week in a 49-14 win over the Trojans. That was then; this is now. Instead of an injury depleted Trojans defensive front, this time around, Notre Dame must face NC State’s stout unit. After facing Miami-Ohio and North Carolina the previous two weeks, this is a HUGE step up in class for the Irish offensive line. In their only two previous games against stout defensive fronts – Michigan State and Georgia – the Irish did NOT dominate the line of scrimmage and did NOT run the football effectively throughout. QB Brandon Wimbush has been battling injuries all year, with only 77 completions and a 51.3 completion percentage. I do not trust Wimbush to move the Irish offense in a game where their running game doesn’t control the flow. And Notre Dame’s running game isn’t likely to control the flow here against NC State’s stout defensive front. The Wolfpack have held every opponent to 116 rushing yards or less, and every opponent to 25 points or less, even Louisville. They currently rank #6 in the country against the run. How? Simple! Their 4-2-5 defense has a front six that consists entirely of senior starters, a veteran unit that is built to stop powerful OL’s. But Wolfpack QB Ryan Finley rather pedestrian and his receiving corps lacks playmakers. Expect BOTH teams to struggle to control the line of scrimmage on offense, leading to a relatively low scoring affair. Take the Under. |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs OVER 197 | 94-103 | Push | 0 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Memphis – Dallas OVER (#513-514) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner with the Mavs Over the total in their home debut against Atlanta last week. The game flew Over the total by 30 points, and it wasn’t just about good shooting – the tempo was there throughout. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up: “Expect a very different pace of play from the previously stodgy Dallas Mavericks this year. From Day 1, Dallas is looking to take advantage of the quickness and speed of rookie point guard Dennis Smith. “Owner Marc Cuban, talking about his newest potential star: “Dennis is fast. I mean he’s easily the fastest guy on the team and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the fastest end line to end line in the NBA…..watching him get a rebound and go coast-to-coast, fans are going to be fired up.” “Smith: "In this league, I've got to attack first and then make my reads from there. It's tough for defenders to stay in front of me. If I can beat my man and make the defense collapse, I'm smart enough to make the right read out of that." “Head coach Rick Carlisle: “We want to push it every single time, even if there's a score. The quicker you get it over half-court, the greater chance you have to make an early vertical attack on the basket.” In their last two games, the Mavs faced the Rockets and Warriors, two teams that no sane head coach would try to go uptempo against. Rick Carlisle didn’t, which leaves us with a total that’s too low here as the Mavs face off against a team they’ll have no hesitation speeding up against. Memphis, like Dallas, has been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA for years; not a team that’s likely to garner wiseguy support for Overs based on their pace ratings. But the Grizzlies haven’t been shy about filling up the hoop in early season play, hanging 98+ in all three contests. The injury to JaMychal Green is a difference maker for this squad when it comes to totals; a defensive stopper without an offensive game not on the floor. Green’s absence doesn’t affect the market, but without him, the ‘good offense, bad defense’ duo of Jarell Martin and Chandler Parsons get extra playing time. And it’s surely worth noting how hard the Grizz have been working to get easy buckets, really pushing the pace with their opportunities in transition. Memphis, too, is coming off games against the Rockets and Warriors in their last two outings, both of which stayed Under the total. Against Dallas, I’m not expecting that same level of defensive intensity, and the total is more than 15 points lower……Take the OVER. |
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10-25-17 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Take LA Dodgers – Houston OVER (#903-904) Last night’s game was a 3-1 pitcher’s duel, yet tonight’s game reeks of an Over! What’s the difference between the two spots? Plenty! I have the utmost of respect for Rich Hill and Justin Verlander, both of whom turned their respective careers around in their mid-30’s. But Rich Hill ain’t Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander ain’t Dallas Keuchel. Tonight, we’re not talking about a pair of lineups that are out of rhythm following multiple days off like we were yesterday. Instead, we’ve got the two of the most potent lineups in MLB in sync, facing pitching that’s a notch or two down compared to Game 1. We’ve still got gametime temperatures in the high 90’s, ideal hitters conditions. We’ve still got a very low total. Both teams used their key bullpen arms last night and the Astros bullpen, in particular, has shown vulnerability here in the postseason. And home plate umpire Paul Nauert isn’t known for a particularly wide strike zone, favoring a pair of patient lineups like these two are. In Nauert’s last game behind home plate for a Dodger game, LA scored 9 runs and went Over the total by themselves. In Nauert’s last game calling balls and strikes in an Astros game, Houston scored 11 runs and went Over the total by themselves. No shock here if once again, tonight, the winning team approaches or exceeds the total all by themselves. Take the Over. |
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10-23-17 | Wizards v. Nuggets UNDER 223 | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Washington UNDER (#513-514) The Nuggets rank #29 in the NBA in possessions per game on offense, playing at a snail’s pace through their first two games, just 0.1 possessions/game higher than the #30 ranked pace squad, Sacramento. Washington has played faster, but they’re not a true uptempo team either, ranked outside the Top 10 in pace ratings. And yet this total is sitting above 222 as I write this on Monday morning, a good notch or two too high! The Nuggets haven’t reached 100 points yet, in large part, because their VERY young point guards are struggling. The Jamal Murray/Emmauel Mudiay combo – a combined 41 years of age – hasn’t been pretty to watch, averaging just 14 points and five assists per game. That duo isn’t likely to have an easy time against All Star John Wall tonight. But Denver ranks #7 in defensive efficiency, with the likes of Paul Millsap, Kenneth Faried and Mason Plumlee all bringing it on the defensive end of the court. Head coach Mike Malone is not a guy who will tolerate consistent defensive breakdowns. The Wizards cashed Over tickets in their first two games, hence this high total. But as we saw repeatedly last year, the Wiz are far more efficient offensively at home than they are on the highway. Head coach Scott Brooks called out his squad for some poor defensive habits after the game; always a good thing for Under bettors next time out. And new starter Kelly Oubre is having an immediate impact on the defensive end of the floor, a strong wing defender. We saw a 92-85 game between these two teams last year, and both teams shot over 41% from the floor – it wasn’t a brickfest. Tonight’s game might be! Take the Under. |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles OVER 49 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Philadelphia OVER (#477-478) The Eagles offense is a completely different animal compared to last year. When Carson Wentz was a rookie QB, he didn’t show much comfort level throwing downfield to his receiving corps. That’s most assuredly not the case in 2017. The Eagles have scored at least 26 points in five of their first six games. Wentz has improved from a 6.2 yards per pass attempt average last year to a 7.7 yards/attempt average this year, a dramatic improvement. It’s not just Wentz. Unlike last year, the Eagles have had standout left tackle Lane Johnson healthy for most of the season, and he’s expected to play again tonight. Free agent addition RB LaGarrette Blount ranks behind only Kareem Hunt on a yards per carry basis for backs with 65+ carries this season. WR Nelson Agholor has surpassed the TD total from his first two seasons COMBINED through the Eagles first five games, and Agholor’s yards per catch has improved from 10.1 last year to 16.1 this season, stretching opposing defenses from the slot. Throw TE Zack Ertz, having a pro bowl caliber season, and WR’s Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith into the mix and this offense is flat out dynamic, loaded with playmakers at multiple positions. The betting markets haven’t necessarily accepted this just yet. Meanwhile, the Redskins have cluster injury problems in their secondary. Impact rookie pass rusher Jonathan Allen just went on IR, devastating their pass rush. CB Josh Norman: “(Jonathan Allen is) a big loss. I’m not gonna be up here and fake it and say it’s not. It’s a big loss for us because he’s one of our driving forces in the middle. He creates havoc in the middle when he’s on the field.” But Norman won’t have to worry about covering the Eagles receivers without a pass rush – he’s been downgraded to OUT this evening, while his cornerback counterpart on the other side, Bashaud Breeland, is questionable at best. Safeties Stefan McClure, Deshazor Everett and Su’a Crvens are already on IR. This defense is primed to get picked apart all night. But the Redskins offense is no joke either! RB Rob Kelley is expected back on the field tonight, an upgrade for their running game. Chris Thompson has been a difference maker catching passes out of the backfield, while Vernon Davis is still tough to guard over the middle and the likes of Jordan Reed, Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder give Kirk Cousins every bit as much offensive weaponry to rely on as Carson Wentz has. The Eagles, too, have a bevy of banged up defensive players. Washington, too, has been putting up points in bunches on a consistent basis, hanging 26+ three times in the last four weeks. The ‘Skins have been a very consistent Over team throughout the Jay Gruden era, 19-6 to the Over in their last 25 regular season ballgames. This series has consistently gone Over the total as well, with five Over cashes in the last seven meetings, with the losing team reaching 20 in all six of those contests. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the OVER. |
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10-21-17 | Idaho v. Missouri OVER 63 | 21-68 | Win | 100 | 45 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Missouri – Idaho Over (#373-374) When Barry Odom arrived in Columbia, he promised to make the Missouri offense as fast paced as any offense in college football, the ultimate uptempo squad. As with many new, uptempo offenses, the Tigers struggled when stepping up in class, against the better defenses of the SEC. But when Missouri got to face a lesser foe with a slower defense, it got ugly for that opponent. Missouri hung 61 on eastern Michigan, 79 on Delaware State and 45 on Middle Tennessee. All three of those games flew Over the total by more than two touchdowns – even the one where their defense pitched a rare shutout! Fast forward to 2017. Missouri’s offense looked great in their opener against Missouri State; a game where the Tigers scored 72 points and generated more than 800 yards of total offense. But it was culture shock for Drew Lock and the Tigers when they stepped up in class, shut down completely by the likes of South Carolina and Purdue in September. Both of those games stayed Under the total by 4 TD’s or more. The betting markets did what betting markets do – they adjusted Missouri down, way down, from a totals perspective after their offense managed only 14 points for a third straight week, whipped by Auburn. In each of their last two games, Missouri was totaled in the 50’s. Kentucky has a better defense this year than in any recent season. Georgia’s defense is as good as any in the country this side of Alabama and Clemson. Yet Missouri moved the football effectively against both of those squads, scoring 34 and 28 points. No surprise, then, that both games FLEW Over the total by more than two touchdowns. Drew Lock has figured it out at the QB position and Missouri’s offense is really starting to click for the first time in the Barry Odom era. Idaho’s defense presents a major step down in class, compared to what they’ve been facing. And the Vandals own offense, led by senior QB Matt Linehan – a four year starter – is capable of putting TD’s on the board against a dismal Tigers stop unit that has allowed every single opponent they’ve faced this season to get into the 30’s. Expect a shootout! Take the OVER. |
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10-18-17 | Hawks v. Mavs OVER 197.5 | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Dallas – Atlanta OVER (#713-714) Expect a very different pace of play from the previously stodgy Dallas Mavericks this year. From Day 1, Dallas is looking to take advantage of the quickness and speed of rookie point guard Dennis Smith. Owner Marc Cuban, talking about his newest potential star: “Dennis is fast. I mean he’s easily the fastest guy on the team and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the fastest end line to end line in the NBA…..watching him get a rebound and go coast-to-coast, fans are going to be fired up.” Smith: "In this league, I've got to attack first and then make my reads from there. It's tough for defenders to stay in front of me. If I can beat my man and make the defense collapse, I'm smart enough to make the right read out of that." Head coach Rick Carlisle: “We want to push it every single time, even if there's a score. The quicker you get it over half-court, the greater chance you have to make an early vertical attack on the basket.” It takes time for the markets to adjust to teams that radically change their pace of play in the offseason. And with the Hawks defensive rotations in disarray throughout the preseason, we can expect an uptempo affair that flies Over the total with room to spare. Take the OVER. |
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10-15-17 | 49ers v. Redskins OVER 46.5 | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 72 h 27 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco – Washington OVER (#263-264) Forget any stats that you’ve seen about the San Francisco 49ers defense, at least for this week. Spots don’t get much worse than this one for San Fran. Two weeks ago, San Fran led at Arizona in the closing minutes, but ended up losing in overtime. The defense was on the field for more than 80 snaps and 37 minutes. Last week, the 49ers travelled again, flying east to take on the Colts. Again, the game went into OT. Again, the 49ers defense was on the field for more than 36 minutes and 70 snaps. Now, this exhausted and banged up stop unit has to do it again – a third straight road game, heading back East once again, with an early start kickoff. San Fran gave up 41 on a Thursday Night against the Rams the last time they were tired out, and the Redskins offense is primed to explode coming out of their bye week behind an offensive line that’s as healthy as it’s been since Week 1. With playmaking WR Josh Doctson expected to suit up, a Redskins offense that’s in the top quartile of the NFL – averaging a full six yards per play – is capable of lighting up the scoreboard with big plays here. The season long stats for this San Fran offense stink – that’s why this total is as low as it is. In three of their first four games, the 49ers didn’t score an offensive touchdown. But in two games where the 49ers were able to run the football, they scored a combined 62 points, and Brian Hoyer was able to make some big plays downfield against defenses crowding the line of scrimmage to stop the run. It’s worth noting that the Redskins won’t have shutdown CB Josh Norman in the lineup this week. And frankly, I’m not sold on the Redskins run defense, especially against a 49ers offense that is likely to play their fair share of uptempo, no huddle football. Expect some fireworks here! Take the Over. |
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10-14-17 | Purdue v. Wisconsin OVER 50 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Purdue – Wisconsin OVER (#113-114) My clients and I cashed a winner supporting Wisconsin as road chalk against Nebraska last week. This week, however, my attention has turned towards the total; a number that is a good notch or two too low. So, let me start this write-up with an excerpt from last week’s write-up, explaining why the Badgers offense remains an underrated unit at this stage of the campaign, despite another 38 point outburst last week. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “The Badgers have dominated every foe they’ve faced this year. They beat Utah State 59-10, a win that looks even better now than it did at the time. Wisconsin knocked off Florida Atlantic 31-14, and followed that up with a 40-6 win on the road at BYU. Then the Badgers dominated Northwestern for three quarters but fell asleep with a 3 TD lead in the fourth. Seven of their last eight regular season wins have come by 2 TD’s or more; a team that is lighting up the scoreboard. And make no mistake about it – the 2017 Badgers are loaded with veteran talent. Returning QB starter Alex Hornibrook has completed 64% of his throws while averaging just shy of 9.5 yards per pass ATTEMPT! RB Jonathan Taylor is the latest Wisconsin back with NFL upside, averaging 7.9 yards per carry with nine TD’s.” Wisconsin has scored 31+ in every ballgame this year, while averaging more than 40 points per game, and I expect a similar offensive output this week. Paul Chryst got this job because of his offensive acumen – when he was the offensive coordinator here, the Badgers routinely averaged 40 points per game for the full season. The Badgers hung 49 on Purdue last year and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they push around the Boilermakers in the trenches once again this season, leading to some quick strike, big play scores as the defense starts to wear down later in the contest. But there’s ample reason to think that Purdue will be able to put their fair share of points on the scoreboard too. Jeff Brohm got this job because of HIS offensive acumen as an assistant at Louisville and head coach at Western Kentucky. And the Boilermakers have shown immediate and dramatic offensive improvement in Brohm’s first year on the job, hanging 28+ four times in five games, despite David Blough and Elijah Sindelar splitting snaps at QB. Ten different receivers have caught a pass of 20 yards or longer this year, with Brohm’s offense already giving opposing defenses trouble. Expect a handful of quick strike TD’s in this one! Take the OVER. |
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10-07-17 | Michigan State v. Michigan OVER 40 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan – Michigan State OVER (#349-350) The first two matchups between Jim Harbaugh and Mark Dantonio have flown OVER the total with room to spare, with the losing team getting to 23 points in both meetings. Like this game, those contests were totaled in the 40’s. Michigan’s defense is strong, but it’s not as dominant as the D that allowed just 14 points per game last year and 16 points per game in 2015 – not with only one starter back on that side of the football. Michigan State has a solid defense, but not elite; a long, long way down from the vintage Dantonio defenses from 2012 and 2013, both of which allowed 16 points per game or less. Sparty allowed 27 points per game last year and the only strong offense they’ve faced this year – Notre Dame – hung 38 on them. Then there’s the Wolverines QB change, with John O’Korn taking over for the injured Wilton Speight as the starter. Speight is a dink and dunker, generally settling for the high percentage throw. O’Korn takes shots downfield, regularly. He’ll throw more interceptions than Speight, but he’ll also give his playmakers a chance to get the ball in space more than Speight does. Compared to Speight, O’Korn is a dead nuts Over quarterback! O’Korn was brilliant in relief of Speight on the road at Purdue, and he’s had the full bye week to get his timing down with the other offensive starters. No shock here if the Wolverines approach or exceed this total all by themselves against a Spartans defense that flat out isn’t as talented as they were a few years back, playing in their first road game of the season. These quotes tell the story of a team very comfortable with the change at quarterback. Coach Harbaugh: "John's done a fantastic job, I think, ever since he got here. In every role he's been in, he's acquitted himself very well. Including coming off the bench leading our team to a victory. I think that speaks volumes." Michigan Senior Left Tackle Mason Cole: "Things are fine. With John moving into quarterback, it's effortless. We knew the talent John had and we knew he'd get the job done if he had to go in. And he has." The Spartans offense reeks of an Over in this matchup as well. Michigan State can’t run the football; not a dominant, physical team in the trenches this season. That leaves Sparty one choice here – they’ve got to throw the football, exactly what Over bettors covet. QB Brian Lewerke has been rock solid in early season play with an 8-2 TD-INT ratio and nearly 1000 passing yards. The markets have given us one of the lowest totals on the college football betting board to work with here, and the change from Speight to O’Korn completely changes the dynamics and the expected gameflow. Flat out – this is a mispriced total, worthy of a ‘step-up’ wager. Big Ticket: Take the OVER. |
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10-07-17 | West Virginia v. TCU OVER 66 | 24-31 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia – TCU OVER (#387-388) West Virginia is not likely to stop TCU’s offense very often. The Mountaineers have shown real defensive vulnerability in early season play, allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per carry so far this season, despite the fact that they’ve played Kansas, Delaware State and East Carolina in their last three ballgames. The Kansas game is particularly troubling, as the hapless Jayhawks went for 34 points and 567 yards vs. Dana Holgorsen’s stop unit, with 397 rushing yards in that contest. The Horned Frogs offense is no joke. TCU has hung 44+ in all three games not against an SEC defense. Senior QB Kenny Hill – a guy with enough talent to earn starts at Texas A&M when he was a freshman – has shown dramatic improvement from last year. His completion percentage is up from 61% to 73%; his yards per pass up from 7.3 last year to 8.2 this season. TCU’s veteran offensive line is blowing holes open for their running backs Darius Anderson and Kyle Hicks (back from injury this week). This is a dynamic, balanced attack; the best offense that the Mountaineers have seen all season. And TCU isn’t likely to step off the gas pedal in this one, not in a legitimate ‘revenge’ game for an ugly 24 point loss in Morgantown last October. But West Virginia isn’t going to go down quietly! The Mountaineers, like TCU, are coming off a bye, and Holgorsen’s offensive track record with extra time to prepare is nothing short of outstanding. Florida transfer Will Grier has lived up to his hype, throwing for 9.5 yards per pass attempt with 13 TD’s already! RB’s Justin Crawford and Kennedy McKoy have averaged better than seven yards per carry between them. TCU has shown vulnerability to big play passing attacks as we saw against SMU. No surprise here if both of these offenses march up and down the field in a game that has all the makings of a true touchdown-fest, flying Over the total. Take the OVER. |
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10-01-17 | Giants v. Bucs OVER 44 | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 95 h 39 m | Show | |
Take New York Giants – Tampa Bay OVER (#269-270) Case Keenum has been a mid-level NFL backup QB for the last five years. In 27 NFL games at QB, with more than 800 career passing attempts, Keenum went into the game against the Bucs last week with a career QB rating just below 80. Facing Tampa’s banged up defense, Keenum looked like a pro bowler: 369 passing yards on 11.1 per attempts, 3 TD’s without an INT and a QB rating of 142.1 for the game. That, folks, is Tampa Bay’s defense right now. I’m expecting Eli Manning to have a banner afternoon. The Bucs stop unit could be confused with a MASH unit this week. DT Chris Baker is dealing with a nasty bout of the flu. CB Brent Grimes has a bad shoulder, although he’s back at practice. LB Kwon Alexander is out with a hamstring injury. DT Gerald McCoy has a bum ankle. DE Noah Spence is playing with a dislocated shoulder. LB Lavonte David turned his ankle last week, unlikely to suit up on Sunday. DE Jacquies Smith has been out since preseason. Safety TJ Ward is dealing with an injured hip. Defensive coordinator Mike Smith: “Unfortunately, we’ve got some guys that are down, but nobody is going to feel sorry for us -- that’s for sure.” Gerald McCoy knows what’s coming on Sunday against the Giants offense, which broke out of their doldrums with a 24 point fourth quarter at Philly last week: "They change the tempo up. We recognize that, not only because of what they did to Philly but because of what Minnesota did to us. If you notice, a lot of the plays they got were from catching us off guard, coming up to the line and making plays. With a tempo like that, we have to be ready for a lot of short passes, the ball getting out quick. If you notice, they gave up eight sacks the first two weeks and none last week due to how fast the ball was getting out. We've gotta be ready." The Giants defense was completely gassed by the fourth quarter at Philly last week; only the field for nearly 80 snaps in the heat. This stop unit is not fresh – the G-Men have been losing the time of possession battle on a weekly basis – and they’ll be tested by the explosive Bucs offense in the heat and humidity of late afternoon in Tampa Bay. Look for the football to be flying around and both defenses to struggle in what has all the makings of a high octane shootout. Take the Over. |
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09-30-17 | San Jose State v. UNLV OVER 65 | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take UNLV – San Jose State OVER (#173-174) San Jose’s defense is as bad as it gets at the FBS level. Over the last three weeks, the Spartans have given up 56, 54 and 61 points. The defense was just on the field for more than 100 snaps against Utah State; nearly 40 minutes of possession time for the Aggies. Utah ran 85 plays against them the previous week, Texas more than 90 the week before, and both teams had the Spartans defense on the field for 35+ minutes. This will be San Jose’s sixth straight game, without a bye. They’re the only team in the COUNTRY to play each of the first six weeks of the season, including multiple games against physical, Power 5 Conference foes (I didn’t even mention USF). A defense that lacked size, speed, experience and talent coming into the season is now a true bottom tier unit. UNLV’s offensive strength is their passing game – Armani Rogers can chuck the football around and the Rebels have playmakers on the outside, most notably Devonte Boyd. Head coach Tony Sanchez has shown a penchant for going for the jugular when given the opportunity, and the Rebels have lost back-2-back heartbreakers against the Spartans in the last two seasons. I expect UNLV to take no prisoners on the offensive end this week. They could approach this total all by themselves. But UNLV’s defense is not pretty to watch; a bottom tier unit. San Jose’s new head coach, Brent Brennan, comes from the Art Briles coaching tree at Baylor – they’re playing with pace; uptempo football. That failed miserably against the likes of Utah, USF and Texas. Against a defense like UNLV’s – a major step down in class, even compared to the Utah State D they saw last week – look for the Spartans to get their fair share, helping this game fly Over the total. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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09-24-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 45.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 44 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Kansas City – LA Chargers OVER (#483-484) We tend to think of the Kansas City offense as a sluggish one; what it’s been for the majority of the time that Andy Reid and Alex Smith have spent together as a coach/quarterback duo. But that public perception is flat out wrong, as clearly evidenced by KC’s explosive production against the Patriots in their Week 1 road win, followed up by their explosive second half against the Eagles last week. KC hung 42 points and 537 yards on the Pats in Foxboro, with both Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt showing all kinds of big play, quick strike potential. And after their strong second half against the Eagles last week, KC has now produced 27 points or more in six of their last eight regular season games; an under-rated offense in the markets right now. And it’s surely worth noting that the Chiefs have converted 83% of their red zone tries into touchdowns this season (#2 in the NFL), not settling for field goal tries. But KC is not the same defensive squad without pro bowl safety Eric Berry, arguably the top safety in the NFL. We saw Philadelphia move the ball up and down the field against KC last week, to the tune of 27 first downs and more than 400 yards of offense, including a 6.3 yards per carry average. This is likely to continue to be a problem moving forward. Philip Rivers has opened the season on fire, completing more than 73% of his passes. The Chargers wide receiver depth is impressive now that Keenan Allen is fully recovered from his torn ACL. RB Melvin Gordon has found the end zone in back-2-back weeks. LA is 0-2 because their kicker has missed game tying and game winning field goals in the first two weeks of the season, not because their offense isn’t working. And like KC, the Chargers are scoring TD’s when they get in the red zone, ranked #3 in the NFL with an 80% TD conversion rate. Both teams know that they have to design gameplans to put up TD’s in bunches here. Last year’s meetings were both wild shootouts with 37-27 and 33-27 final scores. The markets reluctance to accept Andy Reid’s Chiefs as an ‘Over’ team has given us plenty of value here; an Over worthy of Big Ticket status! Expect touchdowns in bunches! Big Ticket: Take the OVER. |
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09-23-17 | Syracuse v. LSU OVER 56 | 26-35 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse – LSU OVER (#367-368) Dino Babers plays one way and one way only – fast! The Orange rank in the top ten in the country in offensive plays run per game so far this season, and they’re just getting started; now in the second year of Babers system. Returning QB starter Eric Dungey was nothing short of brilliant last week, making plays with his feet and his arm and hanging 41 points on Central Michigan before the fourth quarter even started. Obviously, there’s no comparison between Central Michigan’s defense in the CarrierDome and LSU’s defense in Baton Rouge – this is a big step up in class for the Orange. But Babers has made it clear – his squad is going to continue to push the tempo at every opportunity. And LSU’s defense has one major weakness this week; a weakness that isn’t getting noticed in the betting marketplace……yet. By the end of last Saturday’s beatdown by Mississippi State, LSU’s defensive line was running on fumes. With injuries and suspensions, Defensive Coordinator Dave Aranda doesn’t have much to work with this week. Ed Alexander won’t play. Neither will Frank Herron or Andre Anthony. Neil Farrell, a frosh forced into the starting lineup, will miss the first half after getting called for targeting last week. Defensive end Rashard Lawrence is back at practice, but he’s only expected to see ‘some snaps’ this week. Edge rusher Sci Martni has yet to dress for a game this season. And I would be remiss if I failed to mention the injury that senior safety Ed Paris suffered in practice this week – he’ll be replaced by a true frosh in the starting lineup. This is NOT a defensive line poised to control the line of scrimmage, bad news against an Orange offense poised to play with pace all night long. Last season, LSU offensive coordinator Matt Canada was at Pittsburgh. Pitt faced Syracuse in November in arguably the wildest game of the year. The Panthers won 76-61 behind 393 rushing yards, and their nine pass completions netted a whopping 251 yards as the Orange sold out to stop the run. Canada spent the offseason talking about ‘opening up’ the LSU offense, but we’ve seen no evidence of that thusfar – hence the low total here. But this is the ideal game for Canada to put his uptempo, big play concepts into play, with Florida, Auburn, Ole Miss and Alabama looming on their schedule. If they do, LSU has the potential to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. Even if they don’t and just run the ball up the gut 50 times, the Orange defense can’t handle this level of speed and talent. And don’t worry one bit about Tigers RB Derrius Guice sitting out this week. His backups, Darrel Williams and Nick Brossette, are both enjoying a higher yards per carry average than Guice so far this season, a team with ample running back depth. Take the Over. |
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09-22-17 | Utah v. Arizona OVER 55 | 30-24 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Utah – Arizona OVER (#307-308) If Rich Rod had his way, every Arizona game would fly Over the total. His Arizona Wildcats got an easy blowout win last week; working out their offensive kinks in a 63-16 win over UTEP; a game that cemented Brandon Dawkins as the starting QB moving forward. Dawkins threw for three touchdowns and ran for three more, flashing signs of his potential as a Top 40 QB recruit coming out of high school. After struggling offensively in their first ‘step up in defensive class’ game against Houston the previous week; ‘Zona is primed to move the football up and down the field this week, something they’ve had success doing against Kyle Whittingham’s defenses. Whittingham knows what’s coming: “They run the zone read as well as anyone in the country. They have a quarterback that is an exceptional runner. That is exactly what they look for in their quarterback, the ability to be a dual threat. We have struggled with them.” Arizona is going to push the pace at every opportunity, looking to wear the Utah defense down. The Utes haven’t been tested in that regard at all this year, facing three very weak offenses, none of whom run uptempo, in their first three ballgames. But the Utes are primed to move the football up and down the field against the Wildcats! QB Tyler Hundley is coming off a four TD effort last week, completing better than 70% of his passes for the season. And with new coordinator Troy Taylor throwing the football more than his predecessor, the Utes have strong Over potential here in 2017. Rich Rod and Kyle Whittingham have met five times over the last five years. Those final scores? 36-23, 37-30, 42-10, 35-24 and 34-24. We’re not seeing many defensive struggles, and there’s no reason to expect a defensive struggle this time around either. Take the Over. |
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09-16-17 | Notre Dame v. Boston College UNDER 51 | 49-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Notre Dame – Boston College UNDER (#115-116) Boston College has faced Notre Dame seven times in the last decade. Here are the final scores from those games, starting with last year’s matchup: 19-16. 21-6. 16-14. 31-13. 20-16. 17-0. And 27-14. You’re not seeing any shootouts, nary a one. The Under has cashed in each and every one of those meetings. And there’s absolutely no reason to expect anything different on Saturday. BC’s offense is broken. Steve Addazio’s squad averaged only 17 points per game in 2015 and 20 ppg last year. In two games this season, the Eagles managed to get to 23 against a MAC school in their opener, then were held to 10 last week at home against Wake Forest. They’ve got a frosh QB in Anthony Brown, who threw three picks last week – don’t expect the Eagles to suddenly air it out on Saturday, especially considering their offensive line woes, a very banged up unit. BC does one thing well – they play defense –and that won’t change against the Irish. Notre Dame faced a ‘real’ defense at home last week and were shut down in a 20-19 loss. First year starting QB Brandon Wimbush threw 40 passes and had 16 runs/sacks. The Irish gained a grand total of 211 yards on those 56 plays, not exactly marching up and down the field. This will be the first road start for Wimbush and I’m not expecting the Irish to suddenly air it out either. Expect yet another tight, defensive struggle in a series that’s been full of them! Take the Under. |
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09-16-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas A&M OVER 61.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M – Louisiana- Lafayette OVER (#159-160) Louisiana- Lafayette has a pretty clear track record when stepping up in class under Mark Hudspeth, now in his seventh year on the job. In 2012, they went to Oklahoma State and lost 65-24. In 2013, they went to Kansas State and lost 48-27. In 2014, a visit to Ole Miss resulted in a 56-15 defeat. In 2015, they opened at Kentucky and lost 40-33. Last year they allowed 45 at Boise and 35 at Georgia, while the offense reached double digits both times. The Rajin’ Cajun defense lacks the speed, size and overall talent to slow down high octane attacks on the road against Power 5 Conference squads. To make matters worse for La-La in this game, they’re facing a Texas A&M squad with something to prove on Saturday and a head coach on the hot seat, looking to run up scores in front of the home faithful while he has the chance. The Aggies blew a 34 point second half lead at UCLA in their opener, then looked as flat as a pancake last week against Nicholls State. This is clearly their ‘step-up’ game with their SEC opener on deck against Arkansas. Kevin Sumlin and his staff are primed to call an aggressive gameplan against the Rajin’ Cajuns because Sumlin is most assuredly worried about his defense: “Their scheme gets the ball down the field. They'll make us defend the whole field. Mark Hudspeth is aggressive when it comes to all three phases of the game. Everyone will need to be on their toes, and it will be a good challenge this weekend." Meanwhile, Hudspeth knows that his team has to trade points to be competitive in this one. Here’s his quote following La-La’s 66-42 loss at Tulsa last Saturday; a game that flew Over the total by nearly seven touchdowns: “We tried to stay with them, foot-to-foot in a track meet and for about three quarters we did. But we've got to go back to the drawing board defensively.” Going back to the drawing board defensively against this high octane offense is a recipe for trouble! Expect a wild shootout, start to finish! Big Ticket: Take the Over! |
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09-13-17 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Take St Louis – Cincinnati OVER (#909-910) Last year at this time, St Louis starter Jack Flaherty was pitching in single A ball. He threw 134 innings for the season. He started this year in AA ball, now up to 158 innings and counting. His first two big league starts both came against light hitting lineups – San Diego and San Francisco – and neither was pretty. Flaherty allowed eight hits and five runs in four innings against the Giants, then struggled with his control, issuing four walks in five innings against San Fran last week. Flaherty is not a likely candidate to throw a seven or eight inning gem here. Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle is an intriguing prospect, but Cinci has been babying him, for good reason. Despite the fact that the Reds pitching staff spent the second consecutive season dealing with a barrage of injuries, Mahle wasn’t the first starting pitcher called up. Or the second, third, fourth or fifth, for that matter. Mahle, too, has faced nothing but cold, anemic lineups at the big league level – the Pirates twice and the Mets. In two of those three starts, he struggled with walks, just like Flaherty has done; never a good sign. Mahle, like Flaherty, is not primed to dominate tonight. Both bullpens have been worn down of late. Four of Cinci’s last five starters haven’t made it into the sixth inning, while the Cardinals starting staff has been struggling to eat up innings as well. Both lineups are in solid current form. St Louis has scored 28 runs in the first four games of their homestand; Cinci has hung 14 over the past two games. Even home plate ump Sean Barber is trending Over when calling balls and strikes, with a relatively narrow strike zone. Expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one! Take the OVER. |
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09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos OVER 42 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Denver – LA Chargers OVER (#481-482) After a Week 1 featuring one Under after the next (10-2 to the Under on Sunday), it’s no surprise that we’ve seen a steady flow of Under $$ again tonight as the Broncos and Chargers battle in Denver. But there’s ample reason to think that both defenses aren’t going to be quite as good as advertised, while both squads have plenty of big play potential on offense. Put those factors together with the total plummeting downwards in early betting action and the case for betting AGAINST the line move becomes perfectly clear. Two years ago, the Broncos defense was good enough to win a Super Bowl despite bottom tier QB play from Peyton Manning in his final season. Last year, the Broncos pass defense ranked #1 in the NFL by a huge margin, effectively shutting down every strong attack they faced. But Denver’s defense isn’t even close to being the same unit this year. Coordinator Wade Phillips is gone. Pro bowl safety TJ Ward was cut in a cost cutting move last week. Denver has cluster injuries on the defensive line – they won’t be able to rotate guys in and out of the game this evening. We can and should expect a fairly significant drop-off from the Broncos defense in 2017, starting right here. The betting markets have been enamored with LA’s defensive personnel, despite the fact that the Chargers, too, have already lost key guys to injuries (LB Denzel Perryman stands out). This is not a defense that has been effective in any recent season, yet some lofty preseason rankings (one publication even called their DL the #1 unit in the NFL) has the markets frothing about their defensive potential. I’m not buying that the Chargers defense has turned into an elite unit between the end of last season and the start of this season. Both teams are loaded with big play weapons, capable of scoring quick strike TD’s. LA has Melvin Gordon, Tyrell Williams, Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry, among others, with strong veteran Philip Rivers chucking the football around. Denver Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy was the Chargers head coach last year – he knows their weaknesses as well as anybody in the NFL. And the Broncos, still have the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and CJ Anderson for Trevor Siemian to find. Expect enough big plays to send this game up and over the total, after the market overreaction to the all the Unders played yesterday. Take the OVER. |
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09-09-17 | South Carolina v. Missouri OVER 72 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Missouri – South Carolina OVER (#373-374) I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. Missouri games can’t be totaled in the low 70’s – period. The markets are still being influenced by the injury plagued back half of the season last year, when the Tigers failed to reach 30 points four times in their last five games of the campaign. That was then. This is now. Missouri had 815 total yards of offense in their opener against Missouri State, averaging an NCAA best 10.7 yards per snap. They did not push the pace in that contest, because they didn’t need to push the pace against the likes of Missouri State. The markets have reacted to Missouri not pushing the pace in the opener, because that’s what markets do, especially early in the season, when meaningful stats are hard to come by. That’s why we’re looking at a total in the low 70’s instead of one in the 80’s – where every single Missouri game needs to be totaled for 2017. Missouri improved from 13 points and 281 yards per game in 2015 to 31 points and 501 yards per game last year; a massive improvement in Barry Odom’s first year on the job. This year, the Tigers return all five starting offensive linemen from last year, QB Drew Lock who threw for 521 yards and seven TD’s last week, and a bevy of skill position talent surrounding Lock. Facing a South Carolina defense with a rebuilt front seven that allowed more than 500 yards last week, I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Missouri hangs 40+ against the Gamecocks this week. But for all of the offensive improvements for the Tigers, their defense is still most assuredly a bottom tier unit. Against Missouri State last week – a team that finished dead last in the Missouri Valley Conference in total offense and points scored last year – Missouri allowed 43 points and 492 yards, missing tackles again and again. South Carolina retuned ten starters on offense from last year themselves, with their best offensive line in the last decade. Returning QB Jake Bentley threw for three TD’s last week against a much better defense than this one….. Last year’s meeting was on pace to be a real shootout; 21-21 following the first drive of the third quarter. But in the second half, three long drives ended with missed field goals and two more ended with interceptions in the opponent’s territory. Both offenses are well ahead of where they were last year in terms of execution and efficiency and the pace here should be frenetic! Big Ticket: Take the OVER! |
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09-06-17 | Angels v. A's OVER 9.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Take the LA Angels – Oakland OVER (#967-968) The Angels lineup is on fire right now, pounding out 8, 10, 9, 7, 6, 11 and 8 runs in their last seven ballgames, showing much more ‘big inning’ capability since acquiring Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips last week. And the A’s lineup has shown plenty of explosiveness as well, pounding out 16 runs in the first two games of this series, producing six runs or more in eight of their last 13 contests while going 8-2 to the Over in their last ten. Clearly, these are two lineups hitting the ball very well right now. Neither starter is trustworthy today. Tyler Skaggs has been lit up for 16 runs in just 12.1 innings of work over his last three starts, clearly still not right following a three month stint on the DL. The A’s have hit him hard in both previous outings against Skaggs this year. Oakland’s Sean Manaea allowed six runs in 3.1 innings of work in his last start against LA. He didn’t make it out for the third inning in his first start against LA this year. Neither hurler is a likely candidate for an ace level showing today. While the heat wave in the Bay Area over the weekend has cooled off somewhat, it’s still warm today, with a steady wind blowing out to right field – excellent hitter conditions. And, key to this total, both bullpens are completely spent! The Angels have seen six of their last seven starters fail to finish the fourth inning. The A’s only got one starter out of the fifth during that same seven game span. That leaves ample opportunity for some late inning shenanigans in this one, in a game that has ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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09-04-17 | Angels v. A's OVER 9.5 | 11-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Oakland – LA Angels OVER (#971-972) Parker Bridwell faced the A’s in his last start and it wasn’t pretty. Bridwell got roughed up early and often, allowing seven earned runs before getting pulled without getting an out in the fourth inning. Chris Smith faced the Angels in his last start as well. That outing wasn’t particularly pretty either – Smith, too, allowed seven runs without getting out of the fourth inning. In this short turnaround rematch, I’m not expecting either starter to be capable of mowing down opposing hitters. Both opposing lineups have an OPS of better than 1.000 against the starters they’ll face today. The Angels lineup, in particular, is on fire right now, pounding out 8, 10, 9, 7 and 6 runs in their last five games, showing much more ‘big inning’ capability since acquiring Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips last week. And the A’s have shown plenty of explosiveness as well, pounding out six runs or more in six of their last eleven contests while cashing six Overs in their last eight ballgames. There’s been a heat wave in the Bay Area, and it’s still very warm today, with a steady wind blowing out to right field – excellent hitter conditions. And, key to this total, both bullpens are completely spent! The Angels have seen four of their last five starters fail to finish the fourth inning. The A’s only got one starter out of the fifth during that same five game span. That leaves ample opportunity for some late inning shenanigans in this one, in a game that has ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA OVER 56.5 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 56 h 43 m | Show | |
Take UCLA – Texas A&M OVER (#211-212) We’ve got two QB’s worth betting on in this ballgame and a couple of defenses with some major question marks in the equation. Last year, Bruins QB Josh Rosen got battered by Texas A&M’s defensive front, with #1 overall draft choice Myles Garrett and his counterpart on the other side Daeshon Hall (3rd round pick for Carolina) harassing him to the tune of five sacks and three interceptions. UCLA kept settling for short field goals, unable to reach the end zone until the fourth quarter. But when all was said and done, the two teams combined for 55 points, more than 50 first downs and more than 900 yards of total offense. This year, the two offenses are a good notch or two better than last years. Rosen was hurt last year, eventually sitting out the back half of the season. Now he’s fully healthy and loaded with skill position weapons surrounding him – Jim Mora has recruited well in LA. Rosen has #1 overall draft choice upside, and UCLA’s statistical profile from last year gives plenty of weight to the Bruins late season failures without him, held to 14 points or less in three of their last four games. And from all indications, Rosen is looking quite comfortable running new coordinator Jedd Fisch’s offense 9at Michigan L2 years). Meanwhile, for the Aggies, Garrett and Hall have departed, leaving that formerly elite pass rush down a good notch or two (or three) heading into 2017. Kevin Sumlin got this job because of his remarkable success creating and running the Houston Cougars offense, an offense that averaged a truly remarkable 49 points and 599 yards per game in his final year on the job. And the Aggies have averaged at least 35 points per game in four of Sumlin’s five years on the job here in College Station. Redshirt frosh QB Nick Starkel beat out some quality competition to win the starting job. Sumlin’s had success with redshirt frosh QB’s before (some kid named Johnny Manziel stands out in that regard). Starkel has a solid OL to work behind and plenty of skill position talent as well, most notably WR/ kick returner extraordinaire Christian Kirk. Expect no shortage of big plays in this game, a shootout primed to fly Over the total. Take the Over. |
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09-02-17 | Troy v. Boise State OVER 63 | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Boise – Troy OVER (#207-208) For the better part of a decade, Boise State had a truly elite home field advantage on the blue turf. All that has changed since Chris Peterson left town for Washington; leaving Bryan Harsin in charge of the program. Harsin has guided the Broncos to a 2-10 ATS mark as home chalk over the past two seasons; a pointspread disaster area. Boise’s recent ATS failures are not because the offense has fallen off, averaging 39 points per game in 2015 and 34 ppg last year. But the Broncos defense has declined fairly dramatically in recent years. The Broncos allowed 4.3 yards per carry last season, their worst in the last decade (and I didn’t go back and look any futher). And the defense allowed opposing QB’s to complete more than 60% of their passes against them in 2016, while notching only 29 sacks. Only once during this past decade did Boise have fewer sacks or allow opposing QB’s to complete a higher percentage of passes than they did last year. They’ll start three true sophomores in the secondary on Saturday; all first time starters. All of which is problematic for Boise State’s defense in their opener against Troy. The Broncos defense doesn’t look any better this year than it did last year – Harsin simply isn’t bringing in the same level of recruits that Peterson did during his tenure in Boise. And that’s bad news against Troy senior QB Brandon Silvers, who threw for 23 TD’s while completing 64% of his passes last year. Silvers has a trio of returning senior starters at wide receiver; a group with special chemistry – this team returns 98.7% of last year’s offensive production, tops in the country. This team is more than capable of trading touchdowns for extended stretches of this ballgame. But Troy’s defense is even weaker than Boise’s. The Trojans graduated five of their top seven tacklers, including a pair of solid linemen and five of their top six LB’s. That’s bad news against returning QB Brett Rypien, back for his third season as the starter for the Broncos, and the solid bevy of skill position talent surrounding him. Look for these two ‘bet-on’ QB’s to trade touchdowns throughout, sending this game Over the total with room to spare. Take the Over. |
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08-27-17 | 49ers v. Vikings UNDER 41.5 | 31-32 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – San Francisco UNDER (#281-282) The Vikings first string offense hasn’t worked at all in the preseason. With Sam Bradford behind center, Minnesota has generated a grand total of one field goal in six possessions, picking up right where they left off last year. Minnesota’s rebuilt offensive line is struggling to open up holes in the running game, and Bradford isn’t exactly lighting up opposing defenders downfield. Behind Bradford, with Case Keenum safe as the #2 QB, we could see some Mitch Leidner at QB, a non-drafted rookie who was just signed off the waiver wire following Taylor Heinicke’s injury last week. The Vikings offense is not primed to put up points in bunches once again here, already 2-0 to the Under in preseason. The 49ers offense is a ‘work in progress’ to put it mildly. They generated a grand total of 12 first downs and seven offensive points last week, blasted at home by Denver. And this quote from veteran left tackle Joe Staley doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence in Kyle Shanahan’s brand new offense moving forwards: “I think one of the things that even I wasn’t expecting was how detailed you have to be in everything as far as the run game. Aiming points. Everyone’s got to be on the same page — running backs, linemen, receivers, everybody, for it to work.” And it’s surely worth noting that the 49ers QB play has not been pretty thusfar, not likely to get much better against a top tier Vikings defense. Take the Under. |
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08-26-17 | Rice v. Stanford OVER 51 | 7-62 | Win | 100 | 59 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Stanford – Rice OVER (#297-298) Rice doesn’t get many stops against teams like Stanford, even thousands of miles from home in Australia. The Owls certainly couldn’t stop Stanford when they faced ‘em last year, allowing a whopping 373 rushing yards in a 41-17 victory; one of eight games in which the Owls allowed 38 or more points. Rice’s defense hasn’t gotten noticeably bigger or faster in the offseason. Stanford has nine of their top ten offensive linemen back. Don’t expect many Cardinal punts in this one. When a team like Rice gets to play their opener on ESPN against a Top 15 foe, one thing is certain – they’re not going to quit. If Rice is down 42-3 heading into the fourth quarter, you’d better believe that offense is going to hit the field on their next drive looking for a touchdown; not running out the clock. Head coac David Bailiff is starting a frosh QB with some talent in Todd Glaesmann, whose brother is in the Chicago Cubs system ; a solid athlete. The Owls, too, return a loaded offensive line with 92 previous career starts. And they’ve got a couple of legit playmakers in Kylan Granson and Aaron Cephus, both healthy and primed to make something happen on opening night. Take the Over. |
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08-17-17 | Diamondbacks v. Astros OVER 9.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Arizona OVER (#967-968) My clients and I cashed a winner with the Astros –Dbacks Over last night, and there’s ample reason to expect another relatively high scoring affair in afternoon action on Thursday. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up. Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect the outcome of last night’s games: “The Astros are the highest scoring, best hitting team in baseball by a fairly wide margin. But for the better part of the last week, those bats have been ice cold. That came to an end on Tuesday, when the Astros pounded out nine runs while every starter in the lineup had at least one hit. On Wednesday, every starting Astro had at least one hit again, and the team pounded out another nine runs!” “Astros manager AJ Hinch: “We've led the league in offense in a lot of different categories, so I think today we looked a little bit more like ourselves." Infielder Alex Bregman: "We know we're a good offense, we just wanted to put together back-to-back-to-back (hits) and we did that. That's one of the things we've done a lot this year. When we put together quality ABs like that we're a tough offense to stop." There’s little reason to expect Houston’s bats to fall silent today against Patrick Corbin and the worn down Arizona bullpen behind him (four runs allowed in three bullpen innings last night). Corbin has a remarkable home/road dichotomy, with a 7-3 record and a 2.87 ERA at Chase Field compared to a 2-8/ 6.79 ERA on the highway. His two previous August road starts were both disasters, allowing 14 runs in just nine innings of work. Current Astros have hit .533 against him in their careers. The D-backs aren’t sitting pretty in the NL Wild Card race because of their elite pitching – it’s been Arizona’s lineup keying their success. That’s bad news for Mike Fiers and his 8.82 ERA in three previous August starts, allowing at least two home runs in all three of those games. Current D-backs have hit .304 with a .948 OPS against Fiers, and the Astros bullpen behind him, like Arizona’s gave up four runs in less than three innings last night. Even home plate ump Paul Nauert has an Over bias, setting the stage for what should be another Slugfest this afternoon. Take the Over. |
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08-16-17 | Diamondbacks v. Astros OVER 9 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Arizona OVER (#927-928) The Astros are the highest scoring, best hitting team in baseball by a fairly wide margin. But for the better part of the last week, those bats have been ice cold. That came to an end last night, when the Astros pounded out nine runs while every starter in the lineup had at least one hit. Astros manager AJ Hinch, following the game: “We've led the league in offense in a lot of different categories, so I think today we looked a little bit more like ourselves." Infielder Alex Bregman, who’s triple blew the game open early: "We know we're a good offense, we just wanted to put together back-to-back-to-back (hits) and we did that. That's one of the things we've done a lot this year. When we put together quality ABs like that we're a tough offense to stop." The D-backs aren’t sitting pretty in the NL Wild Card race because of their elite pitching – it’s been Arizona’s lineup keying their success. And while that lineup has cooled off against some elite pitchers over the past week, its still most assuredly a ‘bet-on’ batting order against the likes of Charlie Morton and the worn down Astros bullpen behind him. Morton has morphed into a power pitcher this year, with a career high strikeout rate and his lowest ground ball rate since 2010. No surprise, then, that Morton has shown signs of wearing down in the summer heat, with mediocre numbers since the All Star Break. The Astros bullpen behind him hasn’t had a day off since last Monday, and the starters have only finished the sixth inning twice during that span. Dbacks starter Taijuan Walker has seen the Astros plenty, dating from his tenure with the Seattle Mariners. Walker allowed eight runs in just six innings of work over two starts on this field last year on the heels of allowing 11 runs over 9.2 innings of work in two starts on this field in 2015. Current Astros have a .931 OPS against him in 102 career at bats, a decent sample size. And the Dbacks bullpen behind him has been a legitimate problem area of late for Arizona despite a strong bullpen effort last night. Expect fireworks in a game where either lineup is capable of flying Over the total all by themselves. Take the Over. |
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08-14-17 | Phillies v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia – San Diego UNDER (#907-908) It’s not hard to make a case for betting these two anemic lineups Under the total at Petco tonight. San Diego ranks dead last in MLB in runs scored this year. Philadelphia ranks #29 out of 0 teams, the two lowest scoring lineups in baseball. From an OPS standpoint, both squads rank among the bottom five lineups. And it’s not like things have changed in any dramatic way in recent weeks. The Phillies have been held to three runs or less in eight of their last twelve ballgames. They’ve cashed only four Over bets in their last 15 ballgames. The Padres have produced 3, 4, 1, 3 and 2 runs in their last five at Petco, the lowest scoring park in MLB since it’s inception. Padres starter Travis Wood hasn’t wowed anybody since coming over from KC at the trading deadline, but his lone start at Petco was rock solid: six innings of two hit ball against the Pirates. Wood’s fly ball ways work at this spacious ballpark. Phillies starter Jared Eichoff threw five innings of scoreless ball against the Padres last month and he’s in solid current form, allowing only eight earned runs in his last four starts combined. Behind the starters, both squad saved their key bullpen arms yesterday – don’t expect any late inning shenanigans here, in a game that has all the makings of a low scoring affair. Take the Under. |
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08-13-17 | Lions v. Colts UNDER 36 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Indianapolis UNDER (#279-280) The Lions and Colts played a memorable 39-35 shootout last year in Week 1 of the regular season, with Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck trading touchdowns throughout. Expect this game to be pretty much the exact opposite of last year’s regular season meeting! We’re not going to see Luck today and Stafford is unlikely to play more than one drive. Detroit is expected to give Jake Rudock first half playing time, while rookie Brad Kaaya should get the majority of snaps behind center after halftime. The Lions have suffered cluster injuries at offensive tackle, leaving their passing game very much in question today. Right now, Detroit has only four healthy tackles. They certainly won’t risk starter Greg Robinson on the field for long today. That leaves backup Cyrus Kouandjio, undrafted rookie Storm Norton and recently signed Nick Becton as the only healthy tackles on the roster. It’s surely worth noting that reports out of joint practice sessions this week had the Lions second string OL “struggle(ing) mightily to contain the Colts’ average pass rushers, both in team and individual drills.” I’m not expecting Detroit’s offense to be marching up and down the field today, nor do I expect their red zone execution to produce touchdowns instead of field goals. And it’s also surely worth noting that Indy’s offseason top priority was all about improving their defensive depth – their second and third string defense should be significantly improved compared to what we’ve seen in recent preseasons. Indy isn’t primed to light up the scoreboard either. Scott Tolzien will get the start today. Here’s the quote from Zak Keefer’s report from the Indy Star: “The Colts’ offense struggled to move the ball against the Lions on Thursday and Friday, and Tolzien’s only attempts deep were easily broken up.“ Behind Tolzien is Stephen Morris and Philip Walker. Morris has been bouncing around training camps for the last four years without much success, Walker is a 5-11 undrafted rookie free agent, looking at his first real playing time against an NFL defense today. Expect big plays and long drives to be few and far between in this one! Take the Under.. |
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08-10-17 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 38 | 9-24 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Green Bay – Philadelphia OVER (#263-264) The Eagles have all the makings of an Over team here in the preseason, worth betting Over the total right here from Week 1. There are two key factors for Philly in play when it comes to totals this August. First, head coach Doug Pederson isn’t keeping his kid gloves on, looking to open up the offense for more downfield throws. And secondly, the Eagles secondary is, to put it politely, a ‘work in progress’ right now, primed to get lit up tonight! Philly defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz told reporters that he was planning to call man-to-man coverage more often tonight than he will in September because he wants to allow his CB’s to square off against the Packers receivers in one on one situations. His quote: “A lot of times you go into preseason games, and you're there to evaluate players. We had a couple times last year where we played man-to-man just about every snap just to see those guys. You call a preseason game a lot different than you call a regular season game because you want to see players compete, see players win." Don’t be shocked in the slightest if the Packers generate more than their fair share of big plays in the passing game, even without Aaron Rodgers on the field. Let’s not forget how a healthy Brett Hundley lit up opposing defenses in the preseason two years ago, and Joe Callahan behind him showed well in August last year. Carson Wentz isn’t going to get many snaps for the Eagles tonight, but with the likes of Nick Foles and Matt McGloin and Nick Foles behind him, the Philadelphia QB rotation is rock solid for August. 4th stringer Dane Evans has the wheels to scramble for first downs should we need one last score in the fourth quarter to send this game Over the total. Take the Over. |
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08-04-17 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Washingon - Chicago OVER (#901-902). Sorry, Teddy will not have a detailed write-up for this game. He is speaking at the IFBC conference in Costa Rica on Friday. Watch his entire talk (starting at noon Eastern/9 AM Pacific) at www.ifbc.live. Normal write-ups will resume on Monday, sincere apologies for any inconvenience... |
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08-01-17 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Colorado – New York OVER (#961-962) Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up recommending a wager against Steven Matz in San Diego in his last outing: Steven Matz is a ‘bet-against’ pitcher right now, plain and simple, nowhere near his ‘A’ game following elbow surgery. The Mets are 2-5 in his last seven trips to the hill. In his last three starts, Matz has lasted a combined 10.1 innings while allowing 23 hits and 15 earned runs. His strikeout rate is way down, his ground ball rate is down and his advanced metrics numbers clearly show that Matz’s 4.67 ERA is no aberration. Mets manager Terry Collins: “He just has to go back to making better pitches. His stuff is fine. He just has to command his fastball a little better. It's been getting too much of the plate." Matz was every bit as bad in San Diego as he’s been everywhere else of late; lasting only three innings while giving up nine hits and six earned runs. His lone previous start against the Rockies this year was as ugly as it gets; unable to record an out in the second inning; a seven run debacle. Current Rockies are hitting .500 against Matz in their careers. The Mets just traded away key bullpen arms behind Matz, sellers at the deadline. Facing a Rockies lineup that has scored 10. 9. 9, 18, 5, 7 and 13 runs in their last seven home games, expect Matz and the bullpen behind him to struggle mightily once again tonight. The Rockies are a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. So are the Mets, the single strongest Over team in baseball this year, 61-31 to the Over. While they dealt away Lucas Duda at the deadline, the Mets kept most of their lineup intact; a lineup that has continued to produce Overs: 8-2 to the Over in their last ten ballgames. They hit struggling Rockies starter Jeff Hoffman hard less than three weeks ago, and Hoffman has been even worse in the two starts since that game, allowing 14 runs over seven innings of work in his last two starts combined. On a warm summer evening in the Mile High air of Denver, this game has ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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07-25-17 | Astros v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Houston – Philadelphia OVER (#923-924) The Astros have scored 36 runs on the first four games of their road trip; at least seven in every contest. This isn’t new or different. Houston has outscored the second highest scoring team in baseball by more than 50 runs. They lead MLB in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS, all by wide margins. Only the Mets, A’s and Rays have cashed more Over bets than the Astros this season. And there’s no reason to expect Houston’s hot bats to cool off in Philadelphia tonight. Phillies manager Pete Mackanin doesn’t sound particularly confident that inconsistent starter Nick Pivetta and the worn down bullpen behind him will be able to shut down the Astros any better than last night, when the Astros flew Over the total all by themselves. "This is as good a team as we've seen. They're very aggressive hitters, and you can't make mistakes." Pivetta has allowed 11 home runs in his last six starts, a young pitcher prone to ‘making mistakes’. The Phillies bullpen behind him leads the majors with 25 losses this season (and only 14 saves!). But the Phillies bats have finally shown signs of life since the Break, scoring 49 runs in their last eight games; producing at least five runs seven times during that span. Astros starter Charlie Morton has a bad home/road split (ERA nearly two runs higher on the highway) and a poor track record in Citizens Bank Ballpark. Behind him, the Astros bullpen is spent after Brad Peacock, Lance McCullers and Collin McHugh all failed to finish the fifth inning over the past three days. Even home plate umpire Dan Iassogna is trending Over; 26-13 to the Over since the start of the 2016 campaign in games totaled at 9 or less. Expect fireworks. Take the Over. |
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07-20-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 11 | 8-6 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Boston - Toronto UNDER (961-962) The betting markets have knee-jerked to the Over in early betting action on Thursday. After all, it’s a hot, humid day in Boston with a pair of suspect starting pitchers. But this getaway day game most assuredly does NOT have ‘Slugfest’ written all over it! Don’t be surprised if Red Sox manager John Farrell rests some key starters today. Boston played a 16 inning marathon on Saturday, a day/night doubleheader on Sunday and a 15 inning marathon on Tuesday. His quote following last night’s win: “Our roster is out of balance with extra pitchers; we’re able to rotate guys through. We’re going to have a little different look tomorrow, just maybe to conserve physically with some guys.” The Red Sox haven’t been hitting since the break, scoring five runs or less in every game. In fact, they’ve been held to three runs or less in six of their last nine, not exactly tearing the cover off the ball with their bats. No surprise, then, that the Red Sox have cashed six straight Unders. They’ve been strongly trending towards the Under at home for months, cashing only five Over tickets in their last 23 home games. Toronto’s key bats are all cold. Josh Donaldson isn’t hitting, Jose Bautista isn’t hitting, Troy Tulowitzki isn’t hitting and the Jays, like the Red Sox, haven’t put together any offensive explosions since the break. Both bullpens are in solid current form as well. This is one time where the optimal strategy is to zig while the markets zag…… Take the Under. |
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07-02-17 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 9.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
Take New York - Philadelphia OVER (#951-952). Sorry, no detailed write-up for this early start game today. |
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07-01-17 | Giants v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh – San Francisco OVER (#901-902) Here’s the quote from Giants manager Bruce Bochy following last night’s 13 run outburst, the Giants fourth consecutive victory: "I think we'll get more consistent and start scoring more runs. It's hard to imagine we would stay in the rut that we were in offensively. Now, this is a small sample here, but it shows you what happens when you get timely hits. You have a much better chance of winning the ballgame. We're getting a ton of them right now. It's getting contagious." Last night’s Slugfest continued a recent trend for the Giants, who have pounded out 31 runs in their last four ballgames. And there’s little reason to expect the offensive onslaught to slow down against Chad Kuhl and the exhausted Pirates bullpen behind him. Kuhl hasn’t notched a single quality start since mid-April, unable to last past the fifth inning due to consistently high pitch counts. Five different relievers got used last night following Gerritt Cole’s rough outing, leaving the pen vulnerable this afternoon as well; bad news on a warm day in Pittsburgh (temps in the mid 80’s), with the wind blowing out to right field. Matt Moore’s days of being an effective big league pitcher are a long way in the rear view mirror now. He had an 8.88 ERA in June while allowing more than two baserunners per inning. And when Moore’s been away from pitcher friendly AT & T Park, he’s been downright awful, with a .353 batting average against and ab 8.39 ERA in nine road starts. San Fran’s bullpen behind him has been nothing short of awful, and the Pirates bats have finally woken up, scoring four or more in six of their last seven contests. Expect fireworks! Take the OVER. |
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06-27-17 | Rangers v. Indians OVER 10 | 2-1 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Texas OVER (#919-920) Make no mistake about it—these are two hot hitting lineups right now. The Indians rallied back from a seven run deficit last night, pounding out 15 runs on 19 hits and seven walks. They’ve scored five runs or more ten times in their last 13 games. Rangers manager Jeff Bannister: “That's a group of hitters that are swinging the bat very well now. They are very aggressive." The Rangers lineup is every bit as hot, if not hotter. Texas has pounded out 36 runs in their last five games, while scoring five or more in nine of their last eleven overall. Bottom line: either lineup is capable of approaching or exceeding the total all by themselves…just like they did last night. Neither starter can be trusted here, and both bullpens behind the starters are completely spent. The Rangers have used every key arm out of their pen while blowing big leads over the past two days, following short starts from Cole Hamels and Nick Martinez. The Indians couldn’t get Carlos Carrasco out of the fourth inning last night, and we’ve seen their once elite bullpen have some hiccups of late – even Andrew Miller has allowed a run or more in three of his last six appearances. All of which makes this a problematic matchup for both starters tonight. Mike Clevinger is no ace in the making, and he doesn’t eat up innings, needing 100 pitches to survive five frames against Baltimore last time out. He’s recorded an out in the sixth inning only once in his last five trips to the hill. Tyson Ross has made three big league starts over the past two seasons and two of them have been downright ugly, unable to get into the fourth inning without getting bombed. Even home plate umpire Chris Segal has a bit of an Over bias; 41-26 to the over calling balls and strikes over the past four seasons including a 67% Over rate here in 2017. Expect fireworks! Take the Over. |
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06-22-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 12 | 10-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
7* Take under ARI/COL Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-20-17 | Reds v. Rays OVER 9 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Take CIN Over 9 (#979) Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-14-17 | Dodgers v. Indians UNDER 8 | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland- LAD UNDER (#979-980) Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-13-17 | A's v. Marlins OVER 9 | 1-8 | Push | 0 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Oakland -Miami OVER (#921-922). Teddy doesn’t take many breaks – handicapping is a full time job, 365 days a year. But, as he does every summer, Teddy is taking a break from his detailed write-ups while he gets out fo the Vegas heat for a week or two. Teddy’s write-ups will resume as normal on Sunday, June 25th. Thank you for your understanding. |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 226.5 | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Golden State OVER (#705-706) I’m going to start this write-up with an extended excerpt from my Game 2 write-up supporting the Over, a ‘rocking chair’ winner on Sunday Night: “The pace was there for a high scoring affair in Game 1 of this series, but the offensive execution was not. Cavs not named ‘LeBron’ or ‘Kyrie’ combined to make a grand total of 11 shots in 48 minutes, as Cleveland shot under 35% from the floor for the game. Golden State took 106 shot attempts, but didn’t get to the free throw line or connect on a high percentage of three pointers while shooting only 42.5% for the game. The entire fourth quarter was, it the immortal words of legendary broadcaster Marv Albert, ‘garbage time’ where the pace slowed to a crawl as the Warriors lead ballooned, the end result being a game that stayed more than 20 points under the total. “Don’t expect ‘more of the same’ in Game 2. The Cavs certainly aren’t looking to slow things down, despite the Game 1 blowout loss. Kevin Love: “We naturally felt like we could have played better, taken the game to them a little bit more and also played with better pace. There were also times where we could have been smarter and made better decisions as far as fouling in the open court when they had an advantage.” “This isn’t two years ago, when Cleveland had no weapons following the Kyrie Irving injury, forcing a ‘slow it down’ pace in the Finals. It’s not last year either, when the Warriors superstars were all banged up and the Cavs were more comfortable playing grinders. This year’s Cleveland squad is predicated on offense, with LeBron and Kyrie penetrating to score or dish to open three point shooters over and over again.” Now, here’s the ‘pace’ quote from LeBron following their Game 2 loss at Golden State, a game in which the Warriors scored the most points in an NBA Finals Game since the showtime Lakers hung 141 o the Celtics in 1987. “That’s not our game. We don’t play slow-down basketball. We play at our pace, and we play our game. We’ve got to this point playing our way. We’ve won a lot of games playing the way we play. So, we’re not going to change.” Here’s the ‘pace’ quote from Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue, heading into Game 3. “I think taking good shots when we're playing with pace and not turning the basketball over, letting them get out in transition. So, that's our game. We're not going to change our game because of who we're playing. And I'm confident that we can play that way, and we did it last year. A lot of people said we couldn't. But that's our game. That's who we are. And we're not going to change just pause we're playing Golden State." Cleveland’s defense has been problematic all year, and that hasn’t changed against the offensively elite Warriors. They’ve allowed 118.98 points per 100 possessions in the first two games of this series. And the matchups that the Warriors have been able to exploit aren’t going to change. Lue has talked about going even smaller and quicker against the Warriors, talking about sitting center Tristan Thompson for extended stretches tonight: “It's not anything Tristan isn't doing. I just think that against this team you have to score the basketball." With JR Smith coming off two ‘no-show’ games, Deron Williams failing to make a shot in nine attempts in the finals thusfar and Channing Frye poised to get additional minutes, the Cavs role players are primed for a step up effort offensively here. And with the pace of this series averaging 11 more possessions than last year’s Finals matchup, tonight’s game has all the makings of another high scoring affair. Take the OVER. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Golden State OVER (#703-704) The pace was there for a high scoring affair in Game 1 of this series, but the offensive execution was not. Cavs not named ‘LeBron’ or ‘Kyrie’ combined to make a grand total of 11 shots in 48 minutes, as Cleveland shot under 35% from the floor for the game. Golden State took 106 shot attempts, but didn’t get to the free throw line or connect on a high percentage of three pointers while shooting only 42.5% for the game. The entire fourth quarter was, it the immortal words of legendary broadcaster Marv Albert, ‘garbage time’ where the pace slowed to a crawl as the Warriors lead ballooned, the end result being a game that stayed more than 20 points under the total. Don’t expect ‘more of the same’ in Game 2. We can expect this game to be more physical. 47 fouls got called in Game 1, leading to a combined 31 made free throws. This game should have ample point scoring opportunities with the shot clock off, as the refs try to keep things from getting too contentious! Klay Thompson: “I think the Cavs on Sunday will make a plan to not let [Durant] get so many easy buckets around the rim. I expect the Cavs to play a more physical game on Sunday to combat that.” Free throw attempts correlate STRONGLY with NBA totals – more attempts = higher scoring games. The Cavs certainly aren’t looking to slow things down, despite the Game 1 blowout loss. Kevin Love: “We naturally felt like we could have played better, taken the game to them a little bit more and also played with better pace. There were also times where we could have been smarter and made better decisions as far as fouling in the open court when they had an advantage.” This isn’t two years ago, when Cleveland had no weapons following the Kyrie Irving injury, forcing a ‘slow it down’ pace in the Finals. It’s not last year either, when the Warriors superstars were all banged up and the Cavs were more comfortable playing grinders. This year’s Cleveland squad is predicated on offense, with LeBron and Kyrie penetrating to score or dish to open three point shooters over and over again. The Cavs have averaged 118.3 points per 100 possessions here in the playoffs, #1 in the NBA. Golden State ranks #2 at 115.4 pp/100. This should be no surprise – both teams ranked in the Top 3 in offensive efficiency during the regular season as well. With the refs primed to blow some whistles, both teams looking to push the tempo and both squads extremely capable of lighting up the scoreboard, look for a Game 2 shootout that flies OVER the total. Take the Over. |
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06-02-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Baltimore OVER (#967-968) It’s going to be a warm June night in Baltimore, setting the stage for a high scoring affair on a night where the ball should carry in this hitter friendly venue. The ball was certainly carrying last night as the two teams combined for five home runs in a game that snuck Over the total late thanks to a Red Sox rally against the Orioles bullpen. Baltimore’s lineup has finally woken up, pounding out 17 runs in their last two ballgames. That’s bad news for Rick Porcello; who has a lousy track record against this Orioles lineup. In his lone warm weather start on this field last year, Porcello got lit up in a 12-7 Slugfest, arguably the single worst showing of his Cy Young season. the likes of Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Seth Smith and Manny Machado all have strong track records against Porcello. The Red Sox haven’t had a day off in their last ten and three of their last four starters didn’t get out of the sixth inning, leaving their bullpen somewhat ‘less than fresh’ this evening. The Red Sox lineup is clicking right now, pounding out 26 runs on the first four games of their road trip. They’ve gone Over the total by themselves four times in the last week and a half. Baltimore spot starter Alex Asher isn’t going to eat up innings and he’s coming off a truly ugly effort in his first start of the season, unable to get out of the third inning. Current Red Sox are hitting .308 against him with a .936 OPS, and they’ve already seen him once this year. And it’s surely worth noting that home plate ump Laz Diaz is 74-52 to the Over when calling balls and strikes over the past five seasons. Take the Over. |
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05-31-17 | Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Chicago White Sox OVER (#971-972) The Red Sox lineup is finally heating up. Their 13 run outburst last night was the fourth time in nine games that Boston has gone Over the total by themselves; averaging more than seven runs per game during that span, despite the absence of big bat Dustin Pedrioia. The White Sox are hitting too. After an extended slump, the White Sox have pounded out 19 runs over the last three games on this homestand. They’re coming off a 14 hit effort last night, a lineup that’s seeing the ball clearly right now. Red Sox manager John Farrell talked about how Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago played ‘extremely small’ last night due to the warm weather and the wind blowing out. The wind won’t be as strong tonight but it’s still going to be a warm evening on the South Side. More Farrell, following last night’s game: “I think we've played two games over 60 degrees at home. I'm not going to pin it all on the weather, but I would hope as we get into some more consistent warmer weather, we're going to see more impact on the baseball (offensively). Hopefully tonight was an example of it." The White Sox bullpen is a legitimate disaster area tonight after Jose Quintana lasted only 2.2 innings last night on the heels of David Holmberg’s four inning showing on Monday. One of the most effective bullpen’s in the majors is primed for some regression here; bad news with Mike Pelfrey on the hill. Pelfrey’s junkballing ways aren’t likely to shut down the Red Sox lineup, and he doesn’t eat up innings (only one six inning start all year), leaving the door open for some bullpen shenanigans late. The White Sox rank #1 in the majors with an OPS of .829 against opposing lefties (as well as leading MLB in hits and runs), a team worthy of support against southpaw starters. Drew Pomeranz, like Pelfrey, has been unable to eat innings, lasting into the fifth only once in his last four trips to the hill. This ain’t no pitcher’s duel! Take the Over. |
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05-30-17 | Rays v. Rangers OVER 10 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay – Texas OVER (#917-918) So far this season, Global Life Park in Arlington has been below average in ESPN’s ‘Park Factor’; favoring pitchers in early season play. That’s not going to last as the weather heats up – this ballpark was the 6th friendliest for hitters last year, ranked #5 in 2015 and #7 in 2014. And we saw real signs of that last night, with these two teams combining to score 18 runs on 26 hits (11 for extra bases) while burning through nine different relief pitchers. Expect more of the same tonight! The Rangers just got slugger Adrian Beltre off the DL yesterday, plugged immediately back into the cleanup spot. The end result? An eight run outburst, their highest scoring game in the last ten days; in a game that flew Over the total with ample room to spare. The Rangers lineup was pretty darn potent on their last homestand as well, scoring 8, 9, 5, 6, 6, 5, 5 and 4 runs while closing out the homestand with four Overs in their final five games. Betting the Rangers over the total at home sure looks like a money winning strategy right now to this bettor! Tampa’s scoring gets deflated at home – the Trop has ranked as a ‘below MLB average’ hitters venue in each of the last three seasons; a field that hasn’t seen an above average hitters ranking since 2006! No surprise, then, that the Rays bats have produced runs in bunches AWAY from home of late, after closing out their last homestand by scoring only 13 runs in their final five games. The Rays proceeded to score 16 runs in three games at Minnesota, then ten in the series opener here last night, on the heels of a 6-0 run to the Over on their previous road trip, pounding out 39 runs in the process. Betting the Rays Over the total on the highway is a positive expectation strategy right now. Rays starter Matt Andriese is a fly ball pitcher coming off a 112 pitch effort in his last start. Current Rangers have hit .302 against him and in three previous career starts against Texas, Andriese has a 6.28 ERA. Rangers starter Nick Martinez has only one quality start in his last five tries while striking out only 13 batters during that entire span. Both bullpens got used extensively last night, leaving the door wide open for another late inning outburst this evening. And home plate ump Jerry Meals is an Over machine; 76-51 to Over when calling balls and strikes since the start of the 2013 campaign. Take the Over. |
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