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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-17-24 | Hawks +3.5 v. Bulls | 116-131 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Hawks. ATL finished 36-36 and as the last seed in the East. All Star point guard Trae Young though is back and healthy for the playoffs. Experience counts at this time of year and Atlanta has a ton of it and Chicago has now, as note the Hawks are 3- in the Play-In Tournament in their history. ATL is fifth overall in scoring and has the potential to win this game outright. The Bulls finished 39-43, including just 20-21 at home. They've dealt with several injuries all year, including to star Zach Lavine, who is still out. Look for ATLANTA'S depth and experience to prove to be invaluable in this moment but, that said, make sure to grab as many points as you can. Good luck, NP |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 207.5 | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Heat/76ers. Two really good coaches going head to head in this one and two pretty good teams as well. Regardless, while the oddsmakers have done their best to lead us to believe that this will be a lockdown defensive affair, I don't see it that way at all. In fact, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion. Nick Nurse and Eric Spoelstra have been here and done that. Now they just need to get the best out of their players. The two teams split the season series. Will home court advantage prove to be critical (read some of the other analysis contained inside this three-game report to find out!) These two teams can both play defense, but it's going to be the one that plays the most efficiently on the offensive end that comes out on top. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers -200 | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the 76ers moneyline FIRST HALF (it's also a play on the 76ers for the GAME ATS, if no FIRST HALF line available.)Â If you can get a FIRST HALF line, I think Philly on the moneyline is worth the price of admission here. That said, if you can't, then I also like Philadelphia ATS for the entire game. As mentioned on my play on the OVER in the same game, these are two really well-coached teams. But having Joel Embiid back is a big difference-maker for Philly. The 76ers are built to slow down Heat star Jimmy Butler as well. I'm expecting a rout, the play is PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP |
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04-17-24 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Rockies/Phillies. Both sides have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, including in the Phillies first two victories here in the series after yesterday's 5-0 shutout win. Colorado has now lost four in a row. It's now seen the total go "under" in five straight, but note that the Rockies have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their alst five after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Ryan Feltner is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA for the Rockies, while Cristopher Sanchez is 0-2 with a 3.52 ERA for the Phillies. Colorado has struggled to plate runs, but after yesterday's shutout, today's starting matchup is more favorable. Look for this total to creep OVER the number as the game enters the latter frames. Good luck, NP |
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04-17-24 | Reds v. Mariners -128 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MONEY PLAY on the Mariners. I like the Mariners to complete the sweep here. The Reds have struggled against the "better" teams in the early going and I say that trend continues here in the finale of this Interleague contest. Seattle has rebounded from lost two of three from Chicago and I say that momentum continues here. Two really good starters going head-to-head here with Andrew Abbot (1-1, 2.60 ERA) getting the call for the visitors and Bryce Miller (2-1, 1.96) countering for the home side. I really like Abbott and would argue he's been the best overall in the rotation to this point, but Miller at this price at home is just too good to turn down in the end for me. Lay the price, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, NP |
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04-16-24 | Warriors -140 v. Kings | 94-118 | Loss | -140 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Warriors moneyline. The Warriors took out the Kings in the first round last year. Golden State always gets the better of the Kings at this time of the season, and nothing will change here. Just like the Lakers pick, clearly the NBA wants Steph and company playing in these Playoffs as long as possible. Golden State came together down the stretch, and its experience can't be overlooked in this important Play-in contest. The play is GOLDEN STATE on the MONEYLINE. Good luck, NP |
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04-16-24 | Warriors v. Kings OVER 223.5 | 94-118 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Warriors/Kings OVER. To go along with my play on the Warriors, I'm also going to play the OVER in the same game. The last time these teams played, Sacramento won 134-133 at Golden State back in January, and note that the Warriors have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU home loss vs. an opponent. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-16-24 | Lakers -105 v. Pelicans | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Lakers moneyline. The bottom line here is that I think that the NBA wants the Lakers playing as long as possible throughout the playoffs. I also expect Anthony Davis to play out of his mind here and to do whatever he has to do to get the better of his old team. Experience counts at this point as well. I really respect the Pels and think their time will come. But time has run out for Bron, and this is the final "kick of the can."Â The play is LA on the MONEYLINE. Good luck, NP |
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04-16-24 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST GOM on the Jays runline. I think that laying what I deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is where the value lies with this pick. Toronto won 3-1 here in yesterday's series opener and it's now won three straight. New York is now trending in the other direciton after two straight losses. I say those trends continue here for at least one more day as well. Two really good starters going head-to-head here with Carlos Rodon (1-0, 2.87 ERA) and Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 2.30 ERA.) Kikuchi this price at home though is just too good to turn down, despite the opponent. Look for TORONTO to punch its second straight win in this important early divisional series. Good luck, NP |
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04-15-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOW on the OVER Cubs/D-Backs. Arizona took two of three from St. Louis here over the weekend. It's seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after yesterday's 5-0 win over the Cards. Note though that Arizona has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten off a shutout home win. The Cubs saw all three games go UNDER in Seattle over the weekend, but note that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Ben Brown (0-0, 6.10 ERA) goes for the Cubs, while the D-Backs counter with Merrill Kelly (2-0, 2.29.) The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends though all do indeed point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later in my opinion. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-15-24 | Predators v. Penguins -121 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GOM on the Penguins. I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on Pittsburgh. The Predators are already locked into their playoff spot, and this is their final game. They'll simply "go through the motions" here. Pittsburgh not only needs to win its final two games of the regular season, but it also needs some outside help. The Pens play with the added incentive of revenge here as well after falling 3-2 at Nashville at the start of the season. I just don't see Nashville putting up a fight at all here. In fact, the exact opposite. It'll just be hoping to sustain no major injuries as it prepares for the Playoffs. No such luxury for the Pens obviously, who have to do whatever it takes to win this game, and the next one. All things considered, a great situational play here on PITTSBURGH. Good luck, NP |
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04-14-24 | Cubs v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Cubs/Mariners. Both sides have been playing to several lower-scoring affairs of late, but I'm finally expecting more of a slug-fest here in this afternoon interleague matchup from what will be a sunny day in the PNW. This is the rubber-match between the teams and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks. Chicago hands the ball to Javier Assad (1-0, 1.64 ERA), while the home side counters with Luis Castillo (0-3, 6.89.)Â Assad is primed for regression in my opinion, while at the same time, it's hard for me to see Castillo just "flipping a switch" and correcting all of his problems. The Mariners have now seen the total dip below the number in five straight, but that's signficiant for us to take note of as Seattle has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. This number is indeed a bit low, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-14-24 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Avs/Knights. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games down the stretch, but everything points to a tighter defensive affair here in this one in my opinion. Colorado has its first round opponent locked in now and will use the final two games of the regular season to fine tune a few things. Las Vegas is caught in a playoff battle right now between several teams, but regardless note that eight of last ten between these clubs have gone UNDER the number. Both teams have seen the total go OVER in five straight, but I say this one here on Sunday afternoon will stay well UNDER once the final horn blares. Good luck, NP |
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04-14-24 | Bucks +5 v. Magic | Top | 88-113 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Bucks. It's a big game for both teams with playoff implications on the line. Both teams are really struggling as well, but despite not having Giannis Antetokounmpo on the court, I like the Bucks to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire in a competitive battle and to earn the comfortable cover with the handful of points that they've been afforded. Even without the Greek Freak, the correct call is still the Bucks. We just saw Milwaukee beat the Magic by 18 points without Giannis earlier this week. Orlando has dropped three straight games and its inexperience at this time of year will be its undoing. While I do think an outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The play is MILWAUKEE. Good luck, NP |
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04-13-24 | Max Holloway v. Justin Gaethje +130 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 58 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* UFC GOM on Justin Gaethje. The symbolic BMF title is on the line here between these two slugging veterans, but in my opinion "The Highlight" will prove to be just too much for Max Holloway in this one. Holloway is a shell of his former self, having been hit with 1,335 significant strikes to the head across 28 UFC fights. That doesn't bode well facing Justin Gaethje, as Holloway has to move up in weight class to make this fight and "The Highlight" has 10 KO's in his last 12 victories. Gaethje is off a huge head-kick KO of Dustin Poirier and Holloway is going to get cut down like a tree here by his opponents deadly leg kicks as well. All in all, I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Lay the price, the play is JUSTIN GAETHJE. Good luck, NP |
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04-13-24 | Cubs v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Cubs/Mariners. I had a play on the Mariners last night and that was an easy cash in Seattle's eventual 4-2 victory. Seattle has now won two straight and it's seen the total go UNDER in four straight. Chicago has been trading high-scoring games with lower-scoring ones over its last five contests and I expect this pattern to continue here tonight in the PNW. The Cubs go with Shota Imanaga (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who went four scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Padres in his last outing. After ten scoreless and 12 K's to open the season, regression is imminent in my opinion. And the Mariners counter with Emerson Hancock, who is 1-1 with an 11.42 ERA. Clearly Hancock can only go one way with his performance as well, but I don't see him just "flipping a switch" and correcting all of his issues right away. Either way, I'm expecting these starters to get chased early and because of that we can also look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-13-24 | Luton Town v. Manchester City UNDER 4 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 44 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL TOM on the UNDER Luton/Man City. Manchester City is off a 3-3 high-scoring draw with Real Madrid in Champions League action on Tuesday. It hammered Luton Town on its own field 6-2 in the FA Cup two months ago. While Man City has been playing to several higher-scoring affairs of late, I'm anticipating the home side to go up early, before then just locking down Luton. Man City won 2-1 at Luton back in December in the reverse fixture, and I anticipate an even lower-scoring affair here. Luton is off a rare 2-1 win as a +285 dog over Bournemouth, but previous to that it scored a total of just two goals over its previous three games. Luton has stuggled on the road all season, and I have a hard time seeing the visitors doing anything offensively this weekend. This O/U number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-12-24 | Cubs v. Mariners -120 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Mariners. Seattle got a much-needed 6-1 win at Toronto last night to finish 2-4 on its road trip between Milwaukee and the Jays. Now I think they keep that momentum rolling here at home vs. the Cubs, who lost 10-2 at San Diego last night. The Mariners' players were pumped after that victory and I think they'll keep it rolling here at home in this favorable matchup on the mound. Jordan Wicks (0-1, 4.15 ERA) gets the call for the Cubs, while Bryce Miller (1-1, 3.00) counters for the home side. Wicks hasn't made it out of the fifth inning in either of his first two starts this year and has looked shaky overall, while Miller beat Milwaukee 5-3 on Saturday, going seven scoreless, allowing three hits and striking out seven and walking just one. All things considered, I feel this to be the very defintion of "great line value." Lay the short price on the MARINERS. Good luck, NP |
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04-11-24 | Astros v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
This is 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Royals RUNLINE. I think we're getting great value on the home side on the runline option. Why are the Astros favored here? Because the public likes them more? Because they're just 4-9 and the Royals are 8-4. Hunter Brown is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 2.57 WHIP for Houston, while Brady Singer is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.53 WHIP for the Royals. KC has won the first two games of this series, including yesterday by a score of 11-2. Will the Royals take the foot off the gas, or have mercy? Can the Astros flip a switch and start dominating right now? I think the answer to both those questions is: "no!" Houston's big bats have struggled against Singer in the past as well. I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance with KANSAS CITY. Good luck, NP |
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04-10-24 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL WEST TOW on the UNDER A's/Rangers. Considering the current form of these two starters, I believe the correct call as far as the total is concerned is definitely on the UNDER. Oakland will turn to Ross Stripling, who so far is 0-2 with a 3.75 ERA. He's looked really solid so far in the early going for the Athletics though. Last time out he gave up just one run over seven innings, walked none and struck out in a loss to the Red Sox (Oakland's offense though was shutout in that one for the second time in the previous three games.) And that offense could definitely struggle again here on Wednesday facing Rangers' starter Cody Bradford, who is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA and who also gave up just one run in his last start. With these two starters taking center stage like I suspect, look for this one to turn into a classic "duel" in Texas this evening. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Suns. This is the opener of a home and home set between the teams, and I think the Suns will risk life and limb here to secure the home victory. Phoenix had its three game win streak snapped last time out in a 113-105 home setback to New Orleans. But with its final three games on the road, this becomes a very important game for the SUNS. Good luck, NP |
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04-09-24 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -108 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is 10* AL BOOKIEKILLER on the Jays. I like the Jays to build off their 5-2 series opening win here. Both teams have been struggling, and both of these starters have so far struggled. But each team, and each starter is better than what these early results have shown. Seattle goes with George Kirby (1-1, 5.23 ERA0, while the Jays counter with Chris Bassitt (0-2, 7.71.) Look for the big bats of TORONTO to give Bassitt some support today and for TORONTO to find a way to get the job done once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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04-09-24 | Hurricanes v. Bruins +103 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Bruins. Boston lost in the first round last year. It'll be out to make sure that doesn't happen this season. And going into the Playoffs on a high note is the best way to do that. The Bruins just beat the Hurricanes in Carolina last week, and I anticipate a similar outcome here as well now that they're back on home ice. Boston hits the road for two straight after this, so expect it to double down and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The play is the BRUINS. Good luck, NP |
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04-08-24 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOW on the OVER Cubs/Padres. The Padres have seen the total go UNDER in five straight. They've been trading wins/losses over their last five games and will be eager to bounce back here after going just 1-2 at San Francisco over the weekend. The Cubs though are 6-3 overall and they just took two of three from the Dodgers at home. Chicago has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five and I'm expecting the Cubs to keep that offensive momentum rolling here, despite facing Yu Darvish (0-1, 2.30 ERA). The visitors counter with Javier Assad (1-0, 0.00), who looked great in his debut vs. the lowly Rockies, but who I think will now struggle in this difficult away venue. This number is a little low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut OVER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* CBB TOM on the OVER Purdue/UConn. UConn has so far seen every game its played in during this tournament go UNDER the number, and I believe that this O/U line is now a bit TOO low. Note as well that the Huskies have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Purdue has seen its last three go UNDER the number, but note that the Boilermakers have also seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. The two best teams in the country going head-to-head here and in my opinion, this one has "shootout" written ALL over it. Good luck, NP |
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04-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-CONF NON-DIV GOM on the Pelicans. The Pelicans have lost four straight, but despite who gets the start here today, I definitely am expecting New Orleans to put up a fight and go down hard trying. Most recently it was a 111-109 loss to San Antonio. Note that the Pels are 7-3 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which they were a double-digit favorite though. They play with revenge as well after a 124-111 home loss to the Suns at the start of the month. That was the first win of three straight now for Phoenix, but note that the Suns are a sub-par 1-4 ATS in their last five after three or more SU victories in a row. Grab the points, thep lay is NEW ORLEANS. Good luck, NP |
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04-07-24 | Senators v. Capitals -130 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION GAME OF MONTH on the Capitals. Despite an untimely five-game losing streak, the Capitals still have an opportunity to earn the eighth spot in the East with four teams within a game of each other or tied. Note that Washington is 6-2 in its last eight after five or more losses in a row. Ottawa can only play spoiler. It failed to do that in yesterday's 4-3 home loss to New Jersey. I say the Sens come in with "heavy legs" and just go through the motions here vs. this desperate home side. All things considered, I believe this to be the very defintion of "great line value." The play is WASHINGTON. Good luck, NP |
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04-07-24 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WEST TOM on the OVER Padres/Giants. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating more of a slugfest finally here on Sunday afternoon between these division rivals. San Diego goes with Matt Waldron (0-1, 9.00 ERA), while the home side coutners with Logan Webb (0-1, 6.52.)Â Both looked shaky in their openers, and I believe that'll be the difference here for these talented hitting line-ups, which I expect will take advantage throughout the night early and often as far as production at the plate. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-24 | Alabama v. Connecticut -11.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UConn. The Crimson Tide have exceeded expectations. They lost four of their final six games before the Tournament started, but here they are in the Final Four, and according to KenPom they've faced the toughest schedule so far in the Tournament. Bama can score with the best of them, averaging 90.8 PPG, but overall the Crimson Tide are ranked just 105th in defensive efficiency. The tourney defending champs on the other hand are ranked 1st in offensive efficiency and 4th in defensive efficiency in the country. So far the Huskies are 4-0 ATS in this tournament, and with their ultimate goal now in sight, I expect them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, the play is UCONN. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-24 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST TOM on the OVER Jays/Yanks. I had a play on Toronto on the runline yesterday and I did not need the extra 1.5 runs in the Jays outright 3-0 victory. While that game went well UNDER the number, I'm expecting a much more wide-open "slug-fest" here on Saturday night, despite whoever gets the start for either side. This play is "action," meaning that whoever gets the start tonight, this play will still be valid. Kevin Gausman (0-0, 2.08 ERA) is scheduled to get the start fot the Jays, while Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 5.06 ERA) counters for the home side. Schmidt gave up three runs off seven hits to the Astros last weekend. He's in the rotation out of necessity with the injury to Gerrit Cole. Gausman has picked up right where he left off last season, but I'm still expecting the Yanks, who have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent, will plate some runs after getting shutout yesterday. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue -9 | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Purdue. With the majority of the public riding the Cinderella Wolfpack here, I'm going the other way. This is the first time that NC State has been in the Final 4 since 1983. The Boilermakers have won a school record 33 games this year and I think their deep and veteran team will pull away comfortably for the win here, and have NC State playing from behind from start to finish. So far the Wolfpack is averaging 75.5 PPG in this tourney, and conceding 65.5, while the Boilermakers are averaging 84 PPG, while holding teams to just 62.8. These two teams are on different levels and I don't see Purdue allowing the Wolfpack to dictate the pace of this one. I expect a wide-open shootout, but one that Purdue pulls away for both the blowout win and comfortable cover at the same time. Lay the points, the play is indeed on PURDUE. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue OVER 146.5 | 50-63 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER NC State/Purdue. With the majority of the public riding the Cinderella Wolfpack here, I'm going the other way. This is the first time that NC State has been in the Final 4 since 1983. The Boilermakers have won a school record 33 games this year and I think their deep and veteran team will pull away comfortably for the win here, and have NC State playing from behind from start to finish. So far the Wolfpack is averaging 75.5 PPG in this tourney, and conceding 65.5, while the Boilermakers are averaging 84 PPG, while holding teams to just 62.8. These two teams are on different levels and I don't see Purdue allowing the Wolfpack to dictate the pace of this one. I expect a wide-open shootout, but one that Purdue pulls away for both the blowout win and comfortable cover at the same time. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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04-06-24 | Brentford v. Aston Villa -140 | Top | 3-3 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOW on Aston Villa. I think considering a few different factors, that we are in fact getting great value here on Aston Villa at this price at home to win in regulation. Brentford is currently in 15th place in the EPL and only managed a 0-0 draw with Brighton and Hove Albion last weekend. Aston Villa is in fourth place, but it won't be lacking motivation here after slumping to a 4-1 defeat to Manchester City in its last game. Brentford has yet to win a league away game here and I don't see that happening this weekend vs. this now hungry home side. Lay the price for ASTON VILLA in regulation. Good luck, NP |
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04-05-24 | Mariners v. Brewers -120 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Brewers. After seven home games, Seattle is now 3-4. That includes back-to-back losses at home to Cleveland, which includes an 8-0 loss on Wednesday. Now the Mariners hit the road for two straight tough Eastern series, starting here in Milwaukee and ending North of the border. I smell a letdown here in the opener. Two really good starters going head-to-head, with Seattle going with Logan Gilbert (0-0, 1.29 ERA), while the home side counters with Freddy Peralta (1-0, 1.50.) This is the start of 13 straight game days in a row, so I look for the home side to get things kicked off on the "right foot." Seattle only has four home runs so far as a team and is struggling in many metrics on both sides of the ball. Not so for Milwaukee, who has gotten great production out of its rotation and line-up as well in the early going. Gilbert's great, but give me Peralta at home at this price. The play is MILWAUKEE. Good luck, NP |
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04-05-24 | Heat v. Rockets UNDER 215 | Top | 119-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOB on the UNDER Heat/Rockets. Both teams are fighting for a spot and each has been involved in several higher-scoring games of late. This time though, I'm expecting a very defensive battle. At the start of the year, totals were regularly in the 240's. Now we're seeing some dip as low as 202 etc. Regardless, this one sets up nicely to for a lower-scoring war in my opinion. Miami had its three-game win streak snapped in last night's 109-105 loss at home to Philly, so fatigue will be a factor for the Heat, who already play at a really slow pace. Houston plays with revenge after a 120-113 loss at Miami back in January, and note that the Rockets have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-05-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Yankees | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* VALUE PLAY on the Blue Jays RUNLINE. The Yankees return home for their first game of the season in the Bronx, and I think they're going to fall flat here against their hungry division rival. That said, at this price, I can't turn down the extra 1.5 runs. Toronto is only hitting .176 over its first seven games, and this line-up is just too talented to be held down too much longer. "We have a really talented group," Jays' manager John Schneider said. "We have all the confidence in the world they're going to hit. It's a tough series. You don't want to make any knee-jerk reactions. These guys are professionals, and they're going to be ready on Friday." Toronto faces Marcus Stroman (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who allowed three unearned runs off four hits over six innings in New York's 5-3 win at Houston. The Jays counter with lefty Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 6.23), who conceded three runs over 4 1/3's innings in a loss to the Rays last weekend. Overall though he's 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 12 career appearances vs. the Yanks though. This is going to be a great series and I'm expecting a competitve game out of TORONTO on Friday afternoon. Good luck, NP |
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04-04-24 | Blues +1.5 v. Predators | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -170 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* CENTRAL DIV. GOY on the Blues PUCKLINE. At this time of year, we just have to look at the standings to judge motivation levels. Which will admittedly be high for both of these division rivals on Thursday night. That said, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to suggest laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. You may want to sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well here, as I love the way this one sets up from the Blues situationally speaking. St. Louis sits in ninth spot with 84 points, three points behind the Kings for eighth spot and six points behind the Predators for seventh. St. Louis is 40-31. It's coming off a 3-2 OT win here at home over Edmonton. The Blues didn't need the 1.5 goals vs. the Oilers, but they sure very well could here vs. the Predators in my estimation. They also play with revenge after the club's most recent matchup, a 5-2 win for Nashville in St. Louis in mid-February. The Preds come in playing terribly as well, off three straight losses, getting outscored 18-8 in the process. And with two tough upcoming games a the Islanders and Devils on back-to-back nights after this, this is also a look-ahead spot for the home side. I say St. Louis has a legit shot at winning outright, but feel much more comfortable in fact laying the price for the visitors on the puckline option. The play is the BLUES. Good luck, NP |
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04-04-24 | Indiana State v. Seton Hall UNDER 159 | Top | 77-79 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT TOTAL BK on the UNDER. It's the top two seeds going head-to-head here in the NIT Championship Game and instead of trying to figure out who is actually going to win/cover, I'm instead going to focus on the total. And for me, the old saying that "defense wins championships," couldn't be more apt here in my opinion. These are two great offensive teams, but the one that can step up and play better defensively is going to be the one that comes out on top. The Pirates did look good defensively though in their most recent 84-67 victory over Georgia. Indiana State just beat Utah 100-90, and it's seen the total go OVER in two straight now in the tournament. But the general betting public is now quick to hammer the OVER whenver the Sycamores and Larry Blur hit the court. While the majority go one way with this total, I'm going the other. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-04-24 | Guardians v. Twins -143 | 4-2 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Twins. Cleveland is 4-2 so far after beating the Mariners in Seattle 8-0 last night, but I believe the visitors will finally stumble here against the 3-2 Twins, who play at home for the first time this year. Tanner Bibee (0-0, 6.75 ERA) gets the call for the Guardians, and he allowed a career-high five walks and three runs off six hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the lowly A's last weekend. He's 0-0 with a 4.20 ERA in three career starts vs. Minnesota. The Twins counter with Pablo Lopez (1-0, 1.29), who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a 4-1 win over a scrappy Royals side. Look for Lopez to ride the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd and for him to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP |
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04-03-24 | Cavs v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | Top | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER Cavs/Suns. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one now points to this non-conference contest being a lot more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Cleveland has seen the total go OVER in six straight after last night's 129-112 win at Utah. With two whole nights off after this before a game at the Lakers, we feel fatigue will be an issue here for the visitors in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Phoenix returns home after a three-game road trip, and I believe that the Suns will have "heavy legs" here as well. I'm anticipating a very defensive affair here, so the play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-03-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -159 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* RL BK on the Jays. I had a play on the Jays on the runline yesterday, and didn't even need the 1.5 runs of insurance. I may not need it today either. Either way, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price again for Toronto on the runline option. I'm not overreacting to Chris Bassitt's (0-1, 7.20 ERA) start in Tampa for the Jays. He gave up a grand slam is what did the damage. He had a great spring though. He's susceptible to giving up the long-ball, but he catches the Astros at the "right time."Â Houston turns to Christian Javier, who went six shutout innings in a no-decision vs. the Yanks in his opener. He only forced eight whiffs though. I'll caution in backing Javier to quickly, as he posted a very pedestrian 4.56 ERA last year. For all the reasons listed above, the play is TORONTO on the runline option. Good luck, NP |
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04-03-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks +100 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL GOM on the D-Backs. A great situational play. Honestly, it wouldn't be too hard to write a convincing argument for either side to win. That said, Carlos Rodon is coming off a shaky season last year and while he had a decent opening start this year, I say the book is still out on him. Merril Kelly though is arguably the best pitcher in all of MLB and here he is essentially even money at home, facing a Yanks team that JUST lost its first game of the year. I've found in the past that teams that are on long win streaks that finally lose that first game, the next game after that tends to be a BIG letdown spot. The bottom line here is that I believe the general betting public is quick to back the Yanks, and not remembering that the D-Backs were in the World Series last year. The play is ARIZONA. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL TOM on the OVER Yanks/D-Backs. The Yanks are 5-0 after last night's 5-2 series opening win here. All five game have gone UNDER the number. Note though that New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. It's a new season, but it's still worth noting in my opinion. Arizona saw its first three games go OVER the number, but the last two have now gone UNDER. We have two decent starters going head-to-head, but I'm still anticipating a slug-fest between Nestor Cortes Jr. for the Yanks and Zac Gallen for the D-Backs. Cortes Jr. is 0-0 with a 7.20 ERA and Gallen is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA. But the overall situation, combined with the above listed trend makes the OVER the correct call this time around as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-24 | Georgia v. Seton Hall UNDER 145.5 | Top | 67-84 | Loss | -108 | 55 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Georgia/Seton Hall. The NIT shifts to MSG and I'm expecting much more of a defensive affair here between these two teams than what the oddsmakers are trying to leads us to believe. Seton Hall averages 73.3 PPG, and Georgia concedes 73.3. The Pirates allow only 69.8, while the Bulldogs average 74.9. This game is going to be tight from start to finish, but look for the longer lay off to give these teams their "legs" back, and for that to benefit the defensive end. I say this one falls UNDER once the final horn sounds. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* RL BK on the Jays. The Astros finally won a game and are now 1-4. The Jays are now 2-3 after falling 10-0 and getting the seasons first "no hitter" put on them. But now Toronto will look to respond and at this price, I think for sure the value lies with the visitors on the RUNLINE option. Jose Berrios is already 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP for Toronto, while Framber Valdez is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA and 2.36 WHIP for the Astros. I'm laying the price for TORONTO on the RUNLINE today. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-24 | Thunder v. 76ers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Thunder/76ers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much tighter affair here on Tuesday finally. OKC is coming off back-to-back victories. It's seen the total go OVER in five straight after its most recent 113-112 road win at New York, but that's significant to take note of, as the Thunder have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Philly just snapped a three-game slide with a big 135-120 road win North of the border and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the 76ers have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. I think these teams are fatigued, and that's going to translate into this particular contest being much more defense-oriented than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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04-02-24 | Everton v. Newcastle United -102 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOM on Newcastle. Everton has lost three straight, and it's winless in its last 13 Premier League games. I think it'll have a difficult time here on Tuesday afternoon vs. this rejuvenated Newcastle side, which came from behind to beat West Ham United last weekend. Newcastle came from two goals down to stun their opponent, and I see a "carry over of momentum" here for sure. Newcastle also plays with revenge after losing 3-0 at Everton in the reverse fixture in December. Everton is struggling to score though, and it's struggling to defend, and facing this revenge-minded Newcastle side that just scored three unanswered goals in an epic victory on the road is NOT what the doctor ordered for the Toffees whatsoever. I say this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is NEWCASTLE. Good luck, NP |
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04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WEST TOM on the UNDER Giants/Dodgers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but I'm anticipating a "duel" here finally on Monday night between these divisional opponents. San Francisco goes with Keaton Winn, who looked sharp in his final Spring tune-up, going five innings and striking out five. The home side counters with James Paxton, who gave up just one run off two hits and who owns a 7:2 K:BB over four Spring innings. Look for these two capable starters to take center stage and for this total to fall UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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04-01-24 | Kings v. Jets -117 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Jets. LA is on a two-game losing streak, heading in the opposite direction at the wrong time. Winnipeg though has been trending in the wrong direction for a while now, as it comes in off six straight losses. It's now do or die for the Jets in a sense as they look to stop the bleeding. It's been a tough four-game swing for the Kings, who return home to play Seattle, followed by the Sharks. I say they get caught "looking ahead" here. Winnipeg's schedule doesn't get any easier after this. And so at this price and considering all of the above situational/motivation factors now working for Winnipeg, I'm banking on the Jets taking off and delivering the goods at home. Lay the price, the play is indeed on WINNIPEG. Good luck, NP |
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04-01-24 | Blue Jays v. Astros -137 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Astros. Two hopeful starters going head to head here. Two really talented line-ups. Honestly it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either side to win here, but the difference for me is that Houston is winless so far after going 0-4 here to the Yankees to open the season. They uncharacteristically left 34 baserunners stranded, while also going 8 for 41 with runners in scoring position. Look for the now desperate home side to risk life and limb to secure the victory here in what I feel is a great price. The play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP |
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03-31-24 | Jazz v. Kings OVER 222.5 | Top | 106-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Jazz/Kings. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything points to much more of a high-scoring "shootout" here in my opinion finally on Sunday. Utah is trying to snap an eight game slide. It plays with revenge here after a 125-104 loss to the Kings here back on December 16th, ando note that the Jazz have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Sacramento lost two straight to the Mavericks and their offense stalled. The Kings have seen the total go UNDER in six straight now, but that fact has only helped in driving today's O/U line a bit lower than it normally would/should be as well in my opinion. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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03-31-24 | NC State v. Duke -6.5 | Top | 76-64 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* ELITE 8 TOP SIDE on Duke. I've played on both these teams already in this tournament. However, I believe that the Wolfpack's Cinderella run is coming to an end finally. Duke averages 79 PPG, while conceding 66. NC State averages 76 PPG, while conceding 72.2. These teams split a pair of games this year, but Duke will now have a chance to avenge the quarterfinal loss in the Conference tournament game. Duke's an elite team that's had a couple huge "brain farts" this year. It's able to match up with anyone and it looked dominant defensively in its win over Houston. I don't see the Wolfpack beating the Blue Devils twice in two weeks. Duke was an 11.5-point favorite in the Conference Tournament, so is a huge overreaction now by the oddsmakers in trying to "lead" the general betting public?! I'm not buying it, and am instead laying the points here with revenge-minded DUKE. Good luck, NP |
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03-31-24 | Braves v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* RUNLINE BLOWOUT on the Phillies. I say Philadelphia stands up here and avoids the sweep. But at the very least, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras this time, I'm going to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Chris Sale made 20 starts last year for Boston and went 6-5 with a 4.30 ERA. He's 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA spanning three career starts vs. the PHillies. Ranger Suarez counters for the home side and in 16 total appearances vs. Atlanta, the team he's faced more than any other in his career, he's gone 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA. With Atlanta going to the Chicago White Sox for an interleague series, and with the Phillies getting ready for another tough series here tomorrow vs. the Reds, situationally I think it favors the home side as well. Lay the price for the 1.5 runs, the play is PHILADELPHIA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-24 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Rockies/D-Backs. Both games in this opening series have flown well OVER the number, but I'm finally expecting more of a "duel" here finally in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Austin Gomber, who had a highly-respectable 3.68 ERA and 1.37 WHIP away from Coors Field last year. The home side counters with Tommy Henry, who pitched six scoreless innings on Monday in an exhibition vs. Cleveland. Look for these starters to "take center stage" so to speak in this one. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-24 | Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 154.5 | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Illinois/Connecticut. What more can be said about these two teams which hasn't been said a million times at this point. If you're betting on this game, you almost assuredly know all the cast of characters on each side, and the strengths and weaknesses of each side. Illinois averages 84.2 PPG, while allowing 73.2. UConn averages 81.6 PPG, while allowing 63.6. Coach Dan Hurley says, "We suck at winning close games, [so] you've got to go with the alternative." With the defending champs pushing the pace like I suspect, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-24 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOM on the OVER Brewers/Mets. After yesterday's lower-scoring contest, I'm expecting a bit more of a "slug-fest" here early on Saturday afternoon between the Brewers and the Mets. The visitors hand the ball to DL Hall, who looked decent in his last two spring tune-ups. Last year he was 1-0 with a 3.53 ERA on the road spanning nine games and 10.2 innings of work. Luis Severino looked good in Spring Training for the Mets, allowing one run over nine Grapefruit League innings. He had terrible numbers for the Yanks last year, and I'm not reading too much into his Spring performance. I think both of these starters enter with more questions than answers and I believe each will "get the hook" early. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-24 | Red Wings v. Panthers OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONF TOM on the OVER Wings/Panthers. I'm a situational capper, so I handicap the end of the season a little differently than I do the start of the season and through the bulk of the regular season. But for this one, I think it sets up well to be a high-scoring affair. At this time of year you have to look at the schedule to gauge motivation levels. If the playoffs were to start today the Wings would be on the outside looking in, they're in ninth spot, two games back of Washington. And that's because the Wings have lost three straight, they've been shutout twice in that time, including most recently 4-0 at Carolina. They also lost 4-0 at home to Florida on March 2nd and note that the Wings have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a shutout home loss vs. an opponent. Florida is second in the Atlantic at 46-22, but it won't be lacking for motivation here either after two straight home losses.. I think we'll see a wide-open shootout in this one, so I'm rolling with the OVER in this early game. Good luck, NP |
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03-30-24 | West Ham United v. Newcastle United -122 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOW on Newcastle. Newcastle went into the International break off a 3-2 loss at Chelsea, but it draws the perfect opponent to get untracked against here to open up the final stretch. These teams played to a 2-2 draw in the reverse-fixture back in October, but Newcastle is tough in this series at home. I'm banking on the home side collecting all three-points in regulation. Good luck, NP |
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03-29-24 | Mavs v. Kings OVER 230 | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Mavs/Kings. This total is a little low for a few different reasons in my opinion. Both sides have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs of late, including in their most recent matchup together just two nights ago here when Dallas won 132-96. That result though is very important for a few different reasons. The first being that Sacramento has seen the total go "over" the number eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in. And with the loss, Sacramento has now seen the total go UNDER in five straight, which is also significant for us to take note of, as the Kings have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Dallas has won five straight now, and it's seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that the Mavs have also seen the total dip below the posted number in six of their last eight after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. With each team pushing the pace like I'm anticipating, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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03-29-24 | Duke v. Houston -3.5 | 54-51 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Houston. I had a play on Duke in its win over James Madison last time out, but I think the No. 4 Blue Devils will bow out here now vs. the No. 1 seed Houston. The Cougars survived an OT thriller with Texas A&M, and with that legendary game now under their belts, I think we'll see a much more efficient Houston side here. The Cougars are basck in the Sweet 16 for the fifth straight time and they're going to have a distinct home-court advantage here, as this South Region portion is being played in Dallas. Lay the points, the play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP |
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03-29-24 | Gonzaga v. Purdue -5.5 | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Purdue. Gonzaga beat McNeese and a banged-up Kansas side, but I say it's run in this year's Tourney comes to an end this weekend. Overall they average 85.6 PPG, while conceding 68.7. Purdue averages 84.2, while allowing 70.2. The Boilermakers have had a more difficult schedule, have been more consistent overall this season, and will have the best player on the floor in Zach Edey (24.5 points and 12.1 rebounds.) Lay the points, the play is PURDUE. Good luck, NP |
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03-29-24 | NC State +6.5 v. Marquette | 67-58 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NC State. NC State ranks 42nd nationally on offense and 76th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Marquette is healthy an on a mission of its own. The Golden Eagles are 19th on offense and 21st on defense. The Wolfpack have been one of these teams that simply won't go away and I expect that to again be the case in this matchup. Marquette will likely win this game, but it's going to be a dogfight down to the end, as Marquette does lack that killer's mentality overall in my opinion. Either way, grab the points with NC STATE. Good luck, NP |
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03-29-24 | Braves v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -165 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL GOM on the PHILLIES RUNLINE. I think that the Braves are overvalued here, and while I clearly feel an outright win is possible, the overall value here is just too good to turn down on the runline option in my opinion. The Braves hand the ball to Spencer Strider, who was 9-3 with a 4.39 ERA after the All Star break last year. The home side counters with ace Zach Wheeler, who signed a huge extension in the offseason after finishing with a 3.61 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and a massive 212:39 K:BB last year. He was super sharp in Spring training as well, allowing two total runs over three starts spanning nine frames of work to go along with a 9:3 K:BB. I'm laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is PHILADLEPHIA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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03-28-24 | Rockies +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 1-16 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Rockies. I think the Diamondbacks are going to fall back this season after making it all the way to World Series last year, and that drop off starts here in the first game of the year. That said, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option. Kyle Freeland finished 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in spring traning, striking out 14 batters over 14 innings. He'll be a difference-maker in this one. Zac Gallen wasn't quite as sharp during his spring tune-up for the home side, posting a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over nine innings of work. Grab COLORADO on the RULINE. Good luck, NP |
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03-28-24 | Alabama +4.5 v. North Carolina | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Alabama. The Tide is the Nation's No. 1 scoring team and I think Alabama's offense will, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Overall the Tide average 90.7 PPG, while UNC averages 90 so far over the first two games. Alabama will have its hands full in the middle with Armando Bacot, but look for their efficient shooting to keep them in this one late. Grab the points, the play is ALABAMA. Good luck, NP |
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03-28-24 | San Diego State +11 v. Connecticut | 52-82 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on San Diego State. SDSU survived a late push from UAB in the first round, and then it blew out Yale 85-57 in the second. The Huskies are on a mission to repeat as Tourney champs after cruising by Stetson, before beating Northwestern 75-58. The Aztecs are out for revenge here after falling to the Huskies in last year's tournament championship game 76-59. SDSU returns many of those same players and I expect that experience to be crucial in this one. Grab the points, the play is SDSU. Good luck, NP |
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03-28-24 | Clemson +7.5 v. Arizona | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Clemson. Clemson beat No. 11 seed New Mexico, then upset Clemson by eight points to arrive to this point, while Arizona beat LBSU, before then taking down No. 7 seed Dayton by ten. The Tigers ranks 24th in offensive efficiency, and 38th in defensive efficiency, while Arizona is ninth in offensive and tenth in defensive efficency. PJ Hall and the Tigers won't be going down without a fight here. I'll argue it's had the tougher road to this point. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think this one will be a "nail-biter." Grab the points, the play is CLEMSON. Good luck, NP |
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03-28-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Rays | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Jays. A big divisional matchup here right out of the gates and I'm expecting a competitive battle until the end. Because of that, I'm going to suggest to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Jose Berrios was 11-12 with a 3.65 ERA last year. He owned the Rays last year, going 2-0 over 12 innings of work, allowing two runs and two walks with 11 K's. The Rays hand the ball to Zach Eflin, who was 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA last year. He faced Toronto once and gave up one run over seven innings in the victory. Berrios had a 1.38 ERA over four Spring Training outings, while Eflin had an 8.49 ERA in three outings. Lay the price, grab the 1.5 runs with the BLUE JAYS. Good luck, NP |
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03-28-24 | Giants v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Giants/Padres. NL West matchup here and I think these starters will get chased early, and in the end this total will eclipse this fairly low number once it's all said and done. The Padres have already gone 1-1 to open up their season vs. the Dodgers in Korea. Logan Webb was 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA last year for the Giants, while Yu Darvish is making his second start of the season here and is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Frankly, both teams underperformed offensively last year. But the Padres line-up is now fully healthy and San Francisco made some key picks up in the offseason (Champan and Soler.) Look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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03-27-24 | Bruins v. Lightning -109 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTROYER on the Lightning. At this time of year, playing the second game of the back-to-back is always difficult. Boston is coming off a big come from behind win at Florida just last night, and suffice it to say, I believe the visitors will be "gassed" here on Wednesday. The Lightning are playing their best hockey of the season right now (won 6 of L7), and have had two nights off after a 4-1 road trip. Great price on a hot team, the play is indeed on TAMPA BAY. Good luck, NP |
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03-27-24 | UNLV v. Seton Hall -4.5 | Top | 68-91 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Seton Hall. I'm a contrarian at heart, but when you get to this point of the season with so few games and teams remaining, I believe "where the money is" so to speak becomes less of an important factor. And that's the case in this one with UNLV visting Seton Hall in the quarterfinals. I had a play on the Pirates in their most recent 72-58 home win over defending tourney champ North Texas and I thought the home floor advantage would be important in the outcome in that one, and that'll again be the case once the final horn sounds in this one as well. The Rebels first took care of Penn 84-77 on the road, before returning home to beat Boston College by a score of 79-70. So far the Rebels have won their first two games by an average of eight points, but they haven't been great defensively, conceding 78 points so far in the early going. The Pirates had to hold on for dear life in their first game, beating Saint Joseph's 75-72 in overtime, but they looked a lot better in their win over the Mean Green, beating North Texas 72-58. It's just packed every time Seton Hall plays, and while the Rebels have been decent on the road this year with an 8-3 record, I just think their time has now run out here on Wednesday night. Hall has stepped up its defensive play in the tournament, holding its two opponents to an average of just 65 points per game. The Pirates are also the much better rebounding team. I think when you add it all up, home court advantage will indeed prove critical in the outcome of this game on Wednesday night for SETON HALL. Good luck, NP |
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03-26-24 | Mavs v. Kings OVER 235 | Top | 132-96 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION TOM on the OVER Mavs/Kings. The Mavericks are playing well after four straight wins. That includes a 115-105 win at Utah last night. Dallas has seen the total go UNDER in five straight now, but note that the Mavs have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. This is the start of two straight here in Sacramento between the clubs, and because of that I'm expecting this first one to be faster-paced. Note as well that Dallas plays with revenge after falling 120-115 to the Kings at home as a 4-point favorite, and note as well that the Mavericks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Kings have won four of their last five. They've also seen the total go UNDER in five straight after their most recent 108-96 home win over Philly. Note though that Sacramento has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last ten after a SU/ATS home win in which it held its opponent to 99 or fewer points in. The stage is set for a wide-open shootout between these teams tonight, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-26-24 | Cincinnati v. Indiana State OVER 153.5 | Top | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT TOY on the OVER Cincinnati/Indiana State. Cincinnati beat San Francisco 73-72 in OT to open, and then 74-57 over Bradley. Both of those totals were set at 143.5 and the only reason the Game 1 total went OVER the number was because it went to OT. Now here are the Bearcats facing another high-tempo and efficient offense and I don't think this number is nearly high enough. Indiana State beat SMU 101-92, before then pulling away for the 76-65 victory over Minnesota. I'm fully expecting each side to reach into the 80's in this one. Indiana State is 15-1 at home this year and will look to get the Bearcats out of their comfort zone, and playing from behind. Keep your eyes on Cream Abdul-Jabarr, who leads a highly efficent offense (best "2-point" offense in the country at 62.7%.)Â Look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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03-26-24 | Golden Knights v. Predators -140 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Predators. Obviously two really good teams here. It would not be too difficult to write a convincing argument for Vegas to win here, but this is a great spot wager on Nashville, and the price is right for sure in my opinion. Las Vegas is off the tight 2-1 win at St. Louis just last night and I believe the Knights will be predictably "gassed" here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Nashville has had two nights off and it enters playing its best hockey of the season right now with five straight wins. This is one of the Predators more difficult opponents with only three weeks remaining in the regular season. Vegas still has two tough games to go on this road trip at Winnipeg and Minnesota. I think they take a mental night off here and the motivated Predators will pounce. All things considered, a great price here on NASHVILLE. Good luck, NP |
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03-25-24 | Blazers v. Rockets UNDER 225 | Top | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-CONF TOW on the UNDER Blazers/Rockets. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much more defensive battle here finally on Monday between these Western Conference opponents on Monday night. Portland is just 8-25 on the road this season. It comes in off six straight losses. It's seen the total go OVER in five straight after its most recent 114-111 loss at home to Denver, but note that the Blazers have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. The Rockets are arguably the hottest team in the league right now with eight straight victories. Most recently it was a 147-119 win over Utah. Houston has also seen the total eclipse the posted number in five straight games, but note that the Rockets have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. These teams played to a higher-scoring OVER just at the start of the month in the Rockets 123-107 win at Portland, but all signs point to a much tighter and lower-scoring UNDER this time around. Good luck, NP |
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03-25-24 | Nets v. Raptors OVER 219 | Top | 96-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONF TOW on the OVER Nets/Raptors. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating much more of a wide-open offensive affair in this one. Brooklyn is off six straight losses, including a 105-93 setback at New York last time out. Note though that the Nets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 off a SU/ATS road loss in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. Toronto is off ten straight losses. So something has to give for one of these two teams today. Each is in tank mode, but note that the Raptors have seen the total go OVER the number in six of their last eight still after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Look for these two hungry sides to push the pace and to play efficiently and for this total to ultimatley soar OVER the number before the final buzzer sounds. Good luck, NP |
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03-25-24 | Montana v. Arkansas State UNDER 155.5 | Top | 61-74 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* CBI TOURNEY TOM on the UNDER Arkansas State/Montana. It's the quarter-finals of the CBI and while both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to this point, I'm anticiapting a much more defensive affair this afternoon finally. Arkansas State is off a nail-biting 86-85 win over BCU. Overall it averages 79 PPG, while allowing 77.6 this year. Montana enters off a super high-scoring affair as well, holding on for an 82-79 overtime victory over Presbyterian. Overall the Grizzlies average 77.3 PPG, while conceding 71.3. These teams don't typically play at a fast pace and each comes in fatigued. Look for this afternoon contest to produce a much more defensive battle than what this O/U line is suggesting. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-24-24 | Yale +5.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 57-85 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Yale. SDSU held on for the 69-65 win over UAB in the First Round, and was unable to cover the 6.5-point spread. I think the Aztecs will now also struggle to cover here vs. this confident and red hot Yale side got the better of Auburn 78-76 as 14-point dogs. The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU in neutral site games this year and simply won't be fazed. They had to compete with the Tigers in the middle of the paint last time out, but they do in fact matchup a lot better here vs. the Aztecs. Outright win?! Anything's possible, but I see this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points, the play is YALE. Good luck, NP |
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03-24-24 | Clemson +4.5 v. Baylor | Top | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Clemson. While I think an outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Clemson hammered New Mexico 77-56 to advance, while Baylor breezed by Colgate 92-67. The Tigers locked down New Mexico and held the Lobos to just 31 percent shooting, and I believe this aggressive defensive play will give the underdog a legit chance at winning this one outright. Grab the points, the play is CLEMSON. Good luck, NP |
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03-24-24 | James Madison v. Duke -7 | Top | 55-93 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Duke. I think No. 12 seed James Madison's Cinderella run will come to an end here vs. No. 4 Duke. James Madison got out to an early lead and never looked back in the win over Wisconsin, but Duke buried Vermont 64-47. The Dukes only concede 68.9 PPG, but Duke averages 79.4. I think the Blue Devils up-tempo offense will be just too much for James Madison to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is DUKE. Good luck, NP |
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03-23-24 | Philadelphia v. Portland +100 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* MLS GOW on Portland. I like Portland to find a way to get the job done at home. The Timbers have scored 2 or more goals in 11 of their last 14 matches. They've won 7 of their last ten at home and the Union have conceded an average of 2.3 goals over their last six matches. Lay the very reasonable price for PORTLAND to bounce back in the PNW this weekend. Good luck, NP |
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03-23-24 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 210.5 | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* NORTHWEST TOW on the UNDER Nuggets/Blazers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm predicting much more of a defensive affair here on Saturday. Denver is 21-15 on the road. It's coming off a 113-100 win over New York. It returns home for five straight after this. It beat Portland 127-112 in February, but everything points to a much tighter and defensive affair this time around. The Blazers enters off five straight losses, and note that Portland has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after five or more SU losses in a row. Portland fell 125-117 here at home to the Clippers just last night, so fatigue will also be an issue for the home side here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. All of these different situational factors point to this total staying well UNDER the posted number once the final horn sounds. Good luck, NP |
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03-23-24 | Duquesne v. Illinois -9.5 | Top | 63-89 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOLDEN SIDE PLAY on Illinois. I say No. 11 Duquesne's "Cinderella" run comes to an end here vs. No. 3 Illinois on Saturday night. The Illini smashed Morhead State 85-69, and I'm predicting a similar final outcome in this one as well. The Dukes somehow managed a 71-67 win over No. 6 BYU as nine-point dogs, and I say there's now a major over-reaction by the general betting public for the underdog side. Lay the points with confidence, the play is ILLINOIS. Good luck, NP |
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03-23-24 | Gonzaga v. Kansas +4.5 | Top | 89-68 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Kansas. I had a play on Gonzaga in its opening round win over McNeese State, but I believe the Bulldogs will have their hands full here with the Jayhawks. Kansas beat Samford 93-89 to move, but was unable to cover the 7.5-point spread. The Jayhawks are without their best player, but they're still loaded with talent, including the likes of Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams. Graham Ike and Ryan Nembhard round out a deep Gonzaga squad, but I don't see Kansas going down here without a fight. In a game that I see going down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. The play is KANSAS. Good luck, NP |
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03-23-24 | North Texas v. Seton Hall -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Seton Hall. UNT moved into the second round of the NIT with a big road win at LSU on Tuesday (I had the Mean Green in that one), but I believe they'll now finally stumble here in this difficult road venue. They're the defending champs of this Tournament, but with a new coach. While they pulled off the slight road upset in the First Round, I'm not predicting lightning to "strike twice" here. I also had the Pirates in their 75-72 win over St. Joes, and while they did win SU, they didn't cover the four-point spread. But the Pirates own a size advantage, while also bringing a better overall offense to the table (with pretty much even defensive units.) SETON HALL is 15-3 at home this year and the fans will be out here in force to ensure there will be a new NIT champion this year. Lay the points. Good luck, NP |
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03-22-24 | James Madison v. Wisconsin -5.5 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP CONTRARIAN SIDE on Wisconsin. I think No. 12 James Madison will have its hands full here with No. 5 seed Wisconsin. The Badgers are coming off a close loss in the Big Ten Championship game and I see them taking out their frustrations here on the Dukes. James Madison has won 13 straight, which includes the Sun Belt Tourney Championship, but the old saying: all good things must come to an end, couldn't be more apt in my opinion. The Dukes only managed one win over a ranked team, it was their first game of the year at then No. 4 Michigan State, winning 79-76. I don't think they'd win again if those teams played today. Look for the Badgers size and and shooting percentage to be just too much for James Madison to keep up to down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is on WISCONSIN. Good luck, NP |
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03-22-24 | Celtics v. Pistons OVER 222.5 | Top | 129-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Celtics/Pistons. These teams have been involved in some lower-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a "shootout" here in Detroit in my opinion finally. Boston is 55-14 overall, including 23-11 on the road, while Detroit is only 12-57 overall, including 7-29 at home. The Pistons have lost four straight now, and they've seen the total go UNDER in six straight. Scoring is down around the league right now. One of those losses includes a 119-94 setback at Boston just a couple of nights ago, and note that Detroit has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 95 or fewer points in. Boston enters off six straight wins over six straight sub-par teams. The Celtics should win again tonight as well after holding on for the 122-119 win over Milwaukee at home last time out. I suspect a similar final combined score in this one as well, as all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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03-22-24 | UABÂ v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on San Diego State. I think SDSU will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion, making this a spread in which I have no issues at all in laying. UAB finished 23-11, while SDSU was 24-10. UAB beat Temple in the AAC Championship Game, while the Aztecs earned the No. 5 seed by finishing 11-7 in the Mountain West, ranked in the Top 25 for most of the season. UAB managed to rattle off three wins in the conference tournament, but I think it'll have its hands full here. Overall the Blazers average 77.4 PPG, while conceding 75.8. SDSU averags 74.2 PPG, while conceding only 67.3. The difference will come down the stretch on the defensive end. Lay the points with confidence, the play is SDSU. Good luck, NP |
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03-21-24 | Lightning v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the UNDER Bolts/Sharks. Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here tonight in San Jose. Tampa is just 16-16-2-0 on the road, while San Jose is only 10-19-1-2 at home. The Lightning have won four straight. They've also now seen the total go OVER in six straight after their most recent 5-3 win at Vegas. The Bolts have won all four over top teams, beating Philly 7-0, New York 6-3, Florida 5-3 and then Vegas 5-3. Can anyone say letdown spot here vs the lowly Sharks, especially with another tough road game at the hungry Kings up next? San Jose lost 6-0 at Tampa at the start of the year, and note that the Sharks have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent. This number is now too high in my estimation, so the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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03-21-24 | McNeese State v. Gonzaga -6.5 | 65-86 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Gonzaga. No. 12 seeds are just 53-99 vs. No. 5 seeds in this Tournament. Gonzaga finished 25-7 overall, while McNeese State was 30-3. The Cowboys are a tough team under coach Will Wade, who took LSU to the Sweet 16 in 2019, but the Bulldogs experience here at this point will prove to be a difference-maker in my opinion. Mark Few will find a way to not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. Lay the points, the play is GONZAGA. Good luck, NP |
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03-21-24 | Oakland +13.5 v. Kentucky | 80-76 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Oakland. The Wildcats can score. We all know this. But they can't defend. And the Grizzlies know this. In what will likely turn out to be a high-scoring shootout, we think that Oakland can "hang" with the Wildcats and, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with all the points they've been afforded in this one. The Grizz have been competitive all year, as evidenced by their 21-13 ATS record this season. Oakland was a dog in 12 games this year and covered in nine of them. No outright in this one, but much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points, the play is OAKLAND. Good luck, NP |
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03-21-24 | Pelicans v. Magic OVER 207.5 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Pels/Magic. At the start of the year, we saw a lot of high-scoring games. Not so much anymore! That said, I do now think this O/U line is much too low here. New Orleans is off three straight wins. It's No. 1 in the Southwest. It has another tough game at Miami tomorrow night. These teams all play tough defense, but the one that's the most efficient on the offensive end will win this game. This doesn't need to be a super high-scoring game at all to over this super low number. Orlando has won four straight and is No. 1 in the Southeast. It's seen the total go UNDER in three straight after its most recent 112-92 win over Charlotte (second straight opponent its held to under 100 points.) Note though that the Magic have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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03-21-24 | Colorado State +2.5 v. Texas | 44-56 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 0 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Colorado State. Ultimately I feel that "rest" will lead to "rust" here for Texas. Colorado State rolls into the Round of 64 off a dominant 25-point victory over Virginia, shooting 55.3 percent from the field, while holding its opponent to just 25 percent shooting. The Longhorns have been off since March 13th when they lost in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. Joel Scott looks on fire right now again for the Rams, so I'm grabbing the points with COLORADO STATE in this one. Good luck, NP |
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03-20-24 | Colorado v. Boise State +2.5 | Top | 60-53 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Boise State. Colorado finished 24-10 and had its eight-game win streak snapped in its 75-68 loss to Oregon in the Pac 12 Tournament title game, but they return to the Tournament in the First Four for the first time since 2021. Boise State finished 22-10, and it's one of the only teams to earn a bid after losing its first conference tournament game. The Broncos though had some big wins this year and won't be fazed. They beat Saint Mary's and went 2-1 in their last three regular-season games vs. Tournament bound teams. Boise State defends the three-point line incredibly well, ranked 23rd nationally, while also finishing with a top-five defensive rebounding percentage. Colorado won only one game away from home vs. an NCAA Tournament team. Boise State has two extra days of rest here after losing its first game in the conference tournament, which is really big situationally as well at this point of the year. While I clearly feel the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with BOISE STATE. Good luck, NP |
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03-20-24 | St. Joe's v. Seton Hall -7 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT OPENING RND TOP SIDE on Seton Hall. If we're looking at this from a betting perspective, which clearly we are, then we find that nearly 75 percent of the early public money is on the visiting side. That of course makes the home side really attractive to me, appealing to my natrual contrarian ways. The Hawks enter the NIT Tournament averaging 76.7 PPG, while allowing 71.3. Erik Reynolds II leads the nightly charge by averaging 17 points and 2.7 rebounds. Seton Hall averages 72.8 PPG, while conceding 69.5. Kadary Richmond leads most nights by averaging 16.1 points and 4.9 assists. The Pirates are 14-3 SU at home. I think they'll control the pace of this one and be able to pull away down the stretch for not only the win, but also the comfortable cover. Lay the points, the play is SETON HALL. Good luck, NP |
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03-20-24 | Grambling State +4 v. Montana State | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 56 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Grambling State. I think Grambling State is primed for its first-ever NCAA Tournament win, in its first-ever Tournament Berth, after beating Texas Southern in the SWAC Tournament, after losing in the same game each of the last two years. The Montana State Bobcats entered the regular-season finale with a 13-17 record, and then they posted four straight wins, winning the Big Sky Conference Tournament to earn a third straight NCAA tournament berth (note that the Bobcats are 0-5 all-time in March Madness games.) The Bobcats got hot from range in March and won their tournament, but Grambling State defends the perimeter incredibly well, allowing the second-lowest percentage (30%) in the SWAC. Montana State struggles to defend the rim, ranking near the bottom in many metrics. So that plays into Grambling State's strength, as it generates 53 percent of its points from inside the arc. Look for Grambling State to exploit this weakness, which could also easily lead to an outright victory. That said, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with GRAMBLING STATE. Good luck, NP |
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03-19-24 | Colorado State v. Virginia OVER 119.5 | Top | 67-42 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Colorado State/UVA. This is the lowest total on the board, but it's a bit TOO low in my estimation. Yes, these two teams feature two of the slowest paces in the country, but the Rams still feature a Top 50 offense led by senior Isiah Stevens (ranked seventh nationally in assists.) The team oveall is ranked second in the country in assist rate as well at 65.7 percent. These teams lost in their conference tournaments and enter as tenth seeds. Virginia of course plays smothering defense and ranks seventh in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. But the Cavaliers have conceded at least 60 points in four of their last five games, and note that the Rams have scored 60-plus in nine straight. This can still be a low-scoring game and go OVER this tiny number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting to see transpire. This O/U line is low in my estimation, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-19-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves OVER 212.5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* NORTHWEST TOM on the OVER Nuggets/Wolves. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late (like most of the NBA right now!), but I'm finally expecting more of a wide-open shootout here. Denver is 40-17 overall, but just 20-15 on the road. It's off a 107-105 loss at Dallas, snapping a five-game win streak. The Nuggets have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but that's significant for us to take note, as Denver has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Denver plays with the added incentive of revenge here after a humbling 110-89 loss to Minnesota back in early November, and note that the Nuggets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 90 or fewer points in. Minnesota is also 47-21, including 23-8 at home. The Wolves have won three straight after last night's 114-104 win at Utah. They return home here after a six-game road trp and are playing the second game of the back-to-back, but will look to keep the pressure on the defending champs by pushing the pace in my opinion. This number is a little low now, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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03-19-24 | Kansas State v. Iowa -5.5 | Top | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT ATS BLOOD-BATH on Iowa. Kansas State finished 19-14, but just 2-8 in true road games. Iowa finished 18-14 overall, but 13-4 at home. I think these numbers matter right now here in this NIT Opening matchup, as look for the Hawkeyes to not only win this game, but to do so by a sizeable margin. The Hawkeyes averaged 82.9 PPG, while conceding 79. The Wildcats average 71.9 PPG, while allowing 70.5. The margin of error is pretty slim for each team, but there's a big road a home discrepancy factor that comes into play here. Tournament time and home floor advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. Lay the points, the play is IOWA. Good luck, NP |
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03-19-24 | North Texas +3 v. LSU | Top | 84-77 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT ULTIMATE BK on North Texas. North Texas has a new coach this year in Ross Hodge. UNT enters the defending NIT champs though and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. UNT finished 18-14, while LSU was 17-15. The Mean Green went 4-2 down the stretch, while Matt McMahon and the Tigers went 3-2 in their final five. Interestingly, this is the second meeting of the season between the teams, and UNT plays with revenge after the 66-62 neutral site loss to LSU back on November 17th. But that was then, and this is now. UNT enters 73rd in the KenPom rankings, while LSU is 91st. The Mean Green have one of the best defenses in the nation still, and that'll be the difference-maker in the end. While I clearly feel the outright is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with NORTH TEXAS. Good luck, NP |
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