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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +9 | Top | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver played a masterful Game 2, jumping out to a 44-25 advantage by the end of the first quarter, then holding on for the 110-101 upset as 8.5-point underdogs. After the Lakers successfully bounced back from a loss last night, most will anticipate the Clippers doing the same thing tonight. But we feel this line is just too high for an LA team that is just too inconsistent. Plus, the Nuggets have won four of their last five games anyway. They’ve also covered four of the last five times they’ve been an underdog. They are 12-1 ATS their L13 Monday games. Kawhi Leonard had a bad Game 2 and while his numbers should be better tonight, Denver seems to have developed a defensive strategy for him. Paul George can’t be consistently relied on as a second scoring option. We think its Denver that’s likely to have a better offensive performance tonight. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-05-20 | Nuggets +9 v. Clippers | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER The Nuggets look to rebound from a poor Game 1 effort where they were at the disadvantage of only having one day between series while the Clippers had three. Still, it wasn’t just a matter of rest in the 120-97 defeat. Denver shot the ball horribly, especially from “downtown” as they were 9 of 36 on all three-point attempts. Overall, they shot 42.2% while the Clippers were at 57.1%. We won’t claim that the Nuggets are a great defensive team, but they’ll definitely allow a lower shooting percentage Saturday in Game 2. Denver has cashed the L6 times they have been down in a playoff series including a 3-0 ATS this year. Note that the Clippers failed to cover off their first two wins in the first round series with Dallas, losing outright both times. This is a lot of points for the Nuggets to be getting and while it may not have been nearly enough in Game 1, improved shooting coupled with some obvious regression from the Clippers should lead to at least a cover this time. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-04-20 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 100-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami has seized control of this series and there has been nothing remotely fluky about it. Well, Jimmy Butler getting to shoot a pair of “walkoff” free throws in Game 2 might seem a bit fluky. But remember that situation came after a somewhat improbable late game run by the Bucks. The Heat have held the league’s highest scoring offense to just 109 points per game. Going back to the regular season, they have had Milwaukee’s number, winning four of the five meetings. The only loss came here in the bubble and even then the Heat led that game by 17 at halftime. Miami is now 6-0 ATS in the NBA Playoffs and has allowed 104 points or less in four of those wins. Milwaukee is the East’s #1 seed, but they’ve looked like an inferior side the first two games. Quite frankly, they haven’t looked right this whole time in the bubble. They’re only 5-9-1 ATS with three of the covers coming against Orlando. They are also just 3-8 SU when you take out that first round series. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 97-120 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER While Denver was taken to a 7th game by Utah, a series that just wrapped up Tuesday, let us also not forget the Clippers went six games against the Dallas Mavericks. These teams did meet earlier in the bubble with the Clippers winning 124-111. But they were only four point favorites for that game and trailed by eight at the half. This Game 1 number certainly seems to be inflated as far as we’re concerned. That’s probably due to the two fewer days of rest that Denver and the fact they were just the 12th team in NBA history to win a series in which it trailed 3-1. But Gary Harris is back for them now. Jamal Murray had three straight games of more than 42 points before Game 7 vs. Utah. Twice he went for 50. The Nuggets have covered six of the last nine times they’ve been getting points. The Clippers can be inconsistent, sometimes taking “nights off” and there are scoring issues behind Kawhi Leonard. This is too many points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-30-20 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-107 | Win | 101 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
The Nuggets are one more loss away from their season ending. This was also the case heading into Game 5 which they won 117-107 to stay alive. Before staying alive in Game 5, we took the points with Denver in Game 4 and they also covered the spread there. They are now 5-0 ATS the last two seasons when trailing in a playoff series after covering the last two games. Utah is 5-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this year. They are just 1-4 ATS when leading in a playoff series the last two years. The Jazz have very little to offer offensively other than Donovan Mitchell, something that has become readily obvious in their two SU losses in this series. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-29-20 | Blazers +13.5 v. Lakers | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland won’t have Damian Lillard as they try and stave off elimination in tonight’s Game 5 against the Lakers. After an 8-2 start to the bubble, they’ve lost three straight games, two of them by 20 or more points. None of the preceding sounds good for tonight. But, predictably, there’s been an overreaction by the oddsmakers here in the wake of the Lillard injury. They had to do it as the public will overwhelmingly bet the Lakers here. But we’re not convinced the line move should have been 7 points. Even without their best player, look for Portland to compete. Beyond its two stars - LeBron and Anthony Davis - the Lakers don’t have much depth, especially in the backcourt. Los Angeles is also a poor three-point shooting team. They made 56.3% of their shots in Game 4, a number they won’t come close to matching tonight. Games 2 and 4 are the only double digit wins the Lakers have in the bubble. The Blazers have some players, notably CJ McCollum, who can step up. They are 4-1 ATS off a double digit loss. We think the extra time between games well help the Blazers adjust to "life without Lillard." Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-24-20 | Bucks -13.5 v. Magic | Top | 121-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE While Orlando did pull the upset in Game One, things have quickly (and predictably) swung in Milwaukee’s favor in this series. Now the top-seeded Bucks can take a commanding 3-1 series advantage and there’s really no doubt in our minds that will happen. They are of course big favorites to beat the Magic in Game Four Monday afternoon and why wouldn’t they be? The last two games have seen them hold halftime advantages of 21 and 27 points. The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game Three, an uber-efficient performance where Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 35 pts on 12 of 14 shooting. The Magic are short-handed and have covered only 4 of their last 17 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS when leading in a playoff series and while this is a lot of points to lay, they are just that much better than their opponents here. This series likely ends in five games and Milwaukee will win big today. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 103 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER The Nuggets have quickly gone from favorites to underdogs in this series as they’ve lost the last two games by a combined 56 points. If that sounds bad, well it is. But it's not over yet for Denver as they did win Game 1 (in overtime) and a win here would even the series back up. You have to think the Nuggets are going to shoot better than they did in Game 3. They made just 37.5% of their total attempts including only 12 of 38 three-pointers. The big story was the return of Mike Conley for Utah as he made seven threes on his way to a 27-point game. The Jazz have been somewhat inconsistent on offense during their time in the bubble as they definitely miss 2nd leading scorer Bogdanovic. Now it's Denver hoping for a return (Gary Harris) on Sunday as they look to move to 4-0 ATS the last four times they have been trailing in a playoff series. Utah is just 4-15-2 ATS the last 21 times it has been a favorite and they’re just 2-6 ATS coming off an ATS win. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-22-20 | Lakers v. Blazers +7.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND After upsetting the Lakers in Game 1, Portland got run out of the gym in Game 2. They were down 30 after three quarters and lost 111-88 in what was easily their worst showing in the NBA bubble. Previous to that, the Blazers had lost only twice and those two losses were by a total of nine points. After scoring at least 124 in all but one seeding game, they’ve been held to an average of 94 points/game by the Lakers. We like them to bounce back in Game 3 and at the very least keep it close. Game 2 aside, the Lakers have not played all that well in the bubble as they are just 2-8 against the spread with six outright defeats. Offensive efficiency is way down, especially when LeBron James is off the court. They have just two wins by more than three points since the restart and have failed to hit 100 four different times. A second straight blowout seems unlikely, so grab the points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-20-20 | Blazers +7 v. Lakers | Top | 88-111 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland shocked a lot of people by beating the Lakers 100-93 in Game 1, but not us. This team came into the bubble needing to win almost every game and that’s exactly what they have done. They’ve gone 8-2 in their 10 games with the only two losses coming by a combined nine points. That the Blazers were able to win Game 1 despite a poor offensive night has to scare the Lakers. Portland shot just 39.2% Tuesday night, a far cry from the multiple 124+ point efforts we’ve seen from them in Orlando. As for the Lakers, they are 1-8 ATS in the bubble and struggling to make shots. They haven’t even hit 100 four different times. Their shooting percentage and offensive efficiency, particularly when LeBron James is off the court, has been woeful. We just don’t see how LA is going to win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for here, if they even win at all tonight. Besides James and Anthony Davis, the rest of the Lakers combined for just 42 points on 32.1% shooting in Game 1. Since the restart, the top seed has ONE win by more than three points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-20-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -2.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston was our Game of the Month on Tuesday and they came through with flying colors, clobbering Oklahoma City by a score of 123-108 and it wasn’t even that close as the Rockets led by 21 going into the fourth. This despite not having the services of Russell Westbrook, but we projected James Harden to have a big game and that’s exactly what happened as “The Beard” delivered a 37-point effort. He’s certainly capable of scoring even more than that and we think he will in Game 2. Even without Westbrook, Houston is the better team here. The Thunder overachieved both before and after the restart, but this could be a quick series if they’re not careful. You’ll notice that OKC is now the underdog after opening as the slightest favorite for Game 1. While priced more appropriately, we still don’t like the Thunder’s chances in this one as Gallinari had a career-high 29 points in Game 1 and that didn’t matter. His chances of matching that number this afternoon are slim at best. The Rockets are simply the better team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-19-20 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA Philadelphia lost Game 1 109-101 and failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. All told, it wasn’t that disappointing a performance as the Sixers led going into the 4th quarter. That is when they went cold. The good news is they held Boston to just 42% shooting and it took every bit of Jayson Tatum’s career playoff highs of 32 points and 13 rebounds to get the Celtics the ‘W.’ While the 76ers are without Ben Simmons, they still should compete in this series and we like them plus the points in Game 2. Late in Game 1, Gordon Hayward suffered a severe ankle sprain, meaning Boston will be without him for likely four weeks. That’s a big loss. The Celtics are not a deep team. Including Hayward, they have just six players that rate better than average in terms of RPM. They are just 1-4 ATS off the last five ATS wins and we’re going “zig zag” here. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-18-20 | Thunder v. Rockets +1.5 | Top | 108-123 | Win | 103 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston will be without Russell Westbrook for an indefinite period of time, but let’s not forget that Harden fellow and what he’s capable of doing. The Rockets did lose their last three games, but really had nothing to play for and that should be taken into account. Before that, they’d started the bubble 4-1 straight up and against the spread. Oklahoma City went 4-4 in its eight games as well, albeit in much different fashion. They alternated wins and losses the entire way, meaning not one time did they win OR lose back to back games. They are hoping that pattern continues as it would mean a win here. But we feel differently as the Rockets are being undervalued because of the Westbrook absence. Certainly that matters, but Harden has averaged 35.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists in the bubble with a 53.2 FG%. Two other Rockets have had 40+ point games this year, one of the Austin Rivers’ whose career-high 41 point effort came in the bubble. Houston has enough to get the job done and Oklahoma City hasn’t really had all of its pieces together here in Orlando with Schroeder missing time and Adams hurt. Chris Paul has a hand injury worth monitoring as well. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-17-20 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS Dallas is just 3-5 since the restart while the Clippers have gone 5-3. It’s a tough break that a team as talented as the Mavericks fell to the 7-seed and drew a first round matchup with Los Angeles. But it is also a bit of a “tough draw” for the Clippers. The Mavs are one of the top offensive teams in the league and pose a threat that other potential first round opponents (like Utah or Oklahoma City) would not have. These teams met on August 6th and while LA won 126-111, it was a tie game with just over six minutes remaining. That’s with the Clippers shooting exceptionally well and the Mavs having an “off game” at the offensive end. Luka Doncic is averaging a triple double in the bubble with 32 points/game. The Mavericks have averaged 125 points/game since returning and that makes them a “tough out” as an underdog. The spread was only 3.5 when these teams met 11 days ago. Nothing has really changed significantly for either side since then, so the dog screams VALUE. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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08-12-20 | Raptors v. 76ers +8.5 | Top | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA It’s a battle of backups Wednesday but we’re counting on the Sixers showing a little pride in this early evening matchup against the Raptors. It’s not like Philadelphia has played poorly its last two games, where they have been almost entirely without the services of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Simmons’ season is now over while Embiid was hurt early in the 124-121 loss to Portland Sunday night. Yesterday saw Philly compete for 3+ quarters against a highly motivated Suns squad. This is a lot of points to lay with a Raptors team that has nothing to play for as they are locked into the Eastern Conference’s second seed. Coming off an impressive win against Milwaukee on Monday, their level of motivation for this one can certainly be called into question. Their last four victories have come by an average of just 7.5 points/game. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-10-20 | Thunder v. Suns -3 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 6* on PHOENIX The Suns have been the hottest team in the league since the restart. They’re 5-0 SU/ATS, which has them on the cusp of the Western Conference’s play-in scenario. Finishing 8th and not 9th has its advantages in that you only have to win once (as opposed to twice) to make the playoffs. But right now the Suns just need to keep winning as they are 10th, a full game behind 9th place Portland (won Sunday) and 1.5 games back of 8th place Memphis (lost yesterday) They’ve already beaten four teams with .500 or better records here in Orlando, the latest being Miami by a score of 119-112 - as a 4-point favorite - on Saturday. They were led by Devin Booker’s 35 points. We have to admit that it was a bit eye-opening to see the Suns open as the favorite here and get bet up. But they’ll have more motivation than the Thunder, who also are at the disadvantage of having played yesterday. Oklahoma City won Sunday, 121-103, but don’t put a ton of stock into that as they played Washington (worst team in the bubble). They also made a season-high 18 three-pointers, shooting that won’t be matched today. Unlike all the other teams competing for the 8-seed, Phoenix can claim to have a positive net efficiency rating for the year. This team has the momentum and you should expect them to win Monday afternoon. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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08-09-20 | Rockets -4.5 v. Kings | Top | 129-112 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston is likely to finish anywhere from 4th to 6th when the “regular season” concludes. Normally, finishing 4th would be a big deal as it would earn you home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But there is no home court advantage any more. Despite that lack of incentive, we still expect the Rockets to “go off” on Sunday against a Kings team that is prone to far too many defensive lapses. Time is running out on the Kings to finish in a position where they could play themselves into the postseason. The way things stand now, they’d have to jump four teams. It’s not mathematically impossible by any means, however, it’s highly unlikely considering the Kings record thus far is 1-4 and they just lost to Brooklyn by double digits. Houston has beaten both Milwaukee and the Lakers and while LA didn’t have LeBron, the Rockets didn’t have Russell Westbrook in that game either. Westbrook is again expected to sit out here but with James Harden still in the lineup, you can look for Houston to score plenty against the team that’s posted the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league since the restart. The Rockets are off three straight Unders and have gone 6-1 ATS in that situation this season. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-09-20 | 76ers v. Blazers -2 | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND Saturday was a blown opportunity for the Blazers as they led a lead get away and lost to the Clippers, who were playing without Kawhi Leonard. This leaves them 1.5 games behind Memphis for the 8th spot in the West. The Grizzlies are heavy underdogs to the Raptors today, so a win here could very well pull Portland back within one-half game. All they have to do is finish 9th to force a play-in but finishing 8th has its advantages. Also the Blazers must worry about all the teams that are narrowly behind them as finishing 9th is far from a given. Bottom line is that today is “must-win” territory against a Sixers team that was already offensively challenged before losing Ben Simmons. Philadelphia is 3-1 SU in the bubble, but only 1-3 ATS. This will be the first time that the 76ers have been an underdog in a game. They are just 6-16 SU in the underdog role for the season and among those still playing, they have the worst road record of any team besides Washington. Portland really has to have this game. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 122-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO The defending NBA Champion Raptors don’t get the respect they deserve, but they are very likely to get the East’s #2 seed. They can clinch that position with a win tonight over Boston, who is in the #3 spot and likely to finish there. Going back to before the lockdown, Toronto has won seven in a row. That is the longest active win streak in the NBA. They’ve won their three games in Orlando by holding opponents to an average of 98 points/game. That’s remarkable considering how much scoring we’ve seen in the bubble. Even scarier is that Kyle Lowry has shot just 4 for 17 from the field the last two games. Look for his shooting to improve tonight. Boston was red hot shooting the ball Tuesday (56.8 FG%!) but that was against a weak Brooklyn team. The Celtics have issues defending as they’ve given up 112 points in every game so far. Their interior defense was a big question mark heading into the restart and remain so. The Raptors are 29-19 ATS as favorites this season. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-06-20 | Pacers v. Suns +3 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX Phoenix shocked the Clippers on Tuesday, winning the game outright, 117-115 as a 9.5-point underdog. While they did need a Devin Booker “walkoff,” the Suns led the game most of the way and were pretty impressive. They’re now 3-0 since the restart with wins over two playoff teams (Dallas, Clippers) as they try and force their way into a play-in scenario for the 8-seed. Indiana is also 3-0 SU/ATS in the bubble as Victor Oladipo reversed course on a prior decision and has decided to play here in Orlando. The Pacers looked very good in their last game, a 120-109 win over Orlando, but it’s worth mentioning they’ve yet to face a team from the West here in the bubble. The Pacers and Suns have a common win over Washington, but the Suns other two wins (Dallas, Clippers) are far more impressive than the Pacers’ (Philly, Orlando). The Suns did lose badly to the Pacers at home back in January, but are 15-7 ATS this year when seeking revenge for a home defeat. We think the Suns are a good value here. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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08-04-20 | Rockets v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Houston is 2-0 since the restart with wins over Dallas and Milwaukee. Impressive as that sounds, the Rockets trailed by double digits in both games. They were down 11 entering the 4th quarter vs. the Mavericks and needed all of James Harden’s 49 points to pull out a 152-149 overtime victory. Against the Bucks, the much maligned defense once again stepped up late. It is impressive that the Rockets could beat the Bucks despite shooting below 40% but we also don’t think they can keep winning in the manner we’ve seen the first two games. Portland has also played two close games, but split the pair. They were down big to Boston on Sunday, but fought back to make it only a 4-point loss. That was after they beat Memphis in overtime in the first game. Currently in ninth place in the Western Conference, the Blazers are well within the four-games of 8th place Memphis to force a play-in series. Still they really could use the win here as they neck and neck with San Antonio for ninth place. Portland beat Houston twice in the regular season so they’re capable of winning outright again.They are healthier now than they were back then. The Rockets are 2-5 ATS this year coming off an upset win. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS Two teams that are 0-2 since the restart will go at it Monday in Orlando. Memphis faces the more uphill climb here. They played yesterday. It was a 108-106 to the Spurs, a bit of a “double whammy” as that result allowed the Spurs to move within two games of the eighth place Grizzlies. Many thought the Pelicans were going to be the team to chase the Grizz down, but obviously they’re trending in a different direction. It’s a case of Zion Williamson not playing much and going against two good teams. The Pelicans blew a double digit loss vs. Utah, then were embarrassed by the Clippers. Still those are both top four teams in the Western Conference. The teams Memphis lost to are 9th and 10th. This is a must win for the Pelicans, who are 3.5 back of the Grizzlies. With Memphis just 24 hours removed from a tough 2-point loss, they’re in a tough spot. They also played an overtime game Friday. The Pelicans beat the Grizzlies both times they played in the regular season. Both wins were by double digits. The Pelicans have covered 13 of their last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Look for Williamson to be more of a factor today.This team was embarrassed Saturday and will want to make up for that. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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08-02-20 | Bucks v. Rockets +4.5 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston needed every bit of James Harden’s 49 points on Friday to overcome a terrible defensive effort in what ended up being a 153-149 overtime win over Dallas. The Rockets trailed by double digits entering the 4th Quarter, but were then able to hold the Mavericks to just 30 points over the final 17 minutes. The fact Houston played so poorly on the defensive end and had to overcome a late deficit should not bias you here though. While they’re facing Milwaukee, the Bucks won’t have guards Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, so there is a depth issue. The Bucks looked good against Boston Friday, winning 119-112, though Giannis Antetounkmpo probably should have gotten ejected. Also the Bucks raced to a 17-2 lead out of the game, which was the difference in the game. Houston won’t shoot as poorly as the Celtics did (40.7%) and an offensive team like this getting points is a great opportunity. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-01-20 | Jazz v. Thunder -1.5 | Top | 94-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKC The Jazz have already played once, a 106-104 come from behind win over the Pelicans. That preserved their status as the West’s 4th place team for the meantime but a lot can change over the next seven games as they are part of a five-team mess separated by just 3.5 games. Also in that group is Oklahoma City, who has not played yet. The Thunder are 2-0 ATS vs. the Jazz this year, part of an overall 39-24-1 mark at the betting window that is the league’s best. Most impressive of all is that the Thunder are 23-8 ATS on the road. Utah winning that game Thursday night should not make you forget that they trailed by as much as 16 points or that they are without second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic, whose 41.4% three-point shooting will sorely be missed. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
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03-10-20 | Magic v. Grizzlies -2 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS Perhaps no team in the entire NBA has defied expectations more than Memphis Grizzlies have. Projected to win only 27 games this season, they’ve already surpassed that number (they’ve won 32 games) and seem poised to make the playoffs as the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies aren’t favored very often, but be sure to take them when they are. Not only do they boast a 14-4 straight up record in the chalk role, they are also 13-5 against the spread. Tonight they host an Orlando team that is 7-1 ATS its last eight games and off a big upset win in Houston. But considering that was only the sixth time the Magic won as an underdog this year, we will gladly lay the short number in this game. Tonight marks the Magic’s 4th road game in the past 7 nights. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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03-09-20 | Raptors +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto won last night in Sacramento 118-113. Playing in the second night of a back to back should not prevent them from being able to win again tonight. The Raptors have won three straight on this road trip, previously winning in Phoenix and Golden State. It’ll be a tougher test tonight in Utah as the Jazz have won five in a row, the last four all coming on the road. But our view is that the better team is getting points and that’s something we can’t look past. Earlier in the year, they crushed the Jazz by 20. They led that game by 40 at halftime! While it was in Toronto, the Raptors are a strong 22-9 in their road games. Utah has been inconsistent this year, a point driven home by the fact this current 5-game run was preceded by a 4-game losing streak. They are just 5-11-1 ATS their past 17 games with only one cover as a favorite in the last eight tries. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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03-08-20 | Magic +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 126-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ORLANDO Orlando has seen a recent surge in scoring, leading to their last 10 games all going Over the total. They just hung 132 points in a win at Minnesota Friday night and are now 6-1 ATS the last seven games. Tonight they are getting a generous number of points from a Houston team that’s moving in the WRONG direction. The Rockets were the hottest team in the league not long ago but have gone 0-3 straight up and against the spread in March. Two of those losses came to the Knicks and Hornets, teams far worse off than Magic right now. Despite giving up more points than usual lately, the Magic are still top five in the league in fewest points allowed for the season. They give up 107.2 per game. Orlando has covered its last five road games. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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03-05-20 | Raptors v. Warriors +8 | Top | 121-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the WARRIORS Steph Curry returns tonight to a Warriors team that is nothing like it’s been at any point in the last five seasons. The three-time NBA champs have the worst record in the league at 14-48. Golden State has won only five times in 2020, though two of those have come in the last three games. Perhaps motivated by the former MVP’s impending return, Curry’s teammates won in Denver two nights ago 116-110 as a 16-point underdog. Tonight, in a rematch of last year’s Finals, the Warriors face the Raptors. We expect this to be one of the high points of a lost season in Golden State. Yes, to expect Curry to play at an MVP-level right away would be foolish. But he doesn’t need to. The Warriors are still clear underdogs and only need to keep it close. Toronto has injuries as well with Fred Van Vleet and Serge Ibaka both expected not to play. Before beating Phoenix Tuesday, the Raptors had lost three straight and four of six. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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03-04-20 | Grizzlies v. Nets -2 | Top | 118-79 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN Brooklyn is off a huge win last night as they came back from a 17-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter to upset Boston 129-120 in overtime. They were 6.5 point underdogs and led by Caris LeVert’s 51 points. Now they face a quick turnaround to host Memphis. Most will look at this as a bad spot for the Nets, but they are at home. The Grizzlies have a losing record away from home and while they are off 39-point road win, it was against Atlanta. They were actually an underdog in that game due to multiple players being injured. Those same players - Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson - are both out tonight as well. The Grizzlies were fortunate to get a very balanced offensive attack against Atlanta (9 players in double figures!) but can’t count on that every night. Nor can they count on every opponent shooting as poorly as Atlanta did (32.5%!). Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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03-02-20 | Jazz -7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 126-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Give credit to Cleveland for playing better since the firing of former coach John Beilein. They’ve even posted home wins against the likes of Miami and Philadelphia. But those teams seem to be unique in how much they struggle on the road. Utah, who finally ended its losing streak (at four games) Friday, should have little difficulty coming in here and winning. The Cavs have lost two in a row, to New Orleans and Indiana. They still rate as one of the league’s worst teams. Utah winning its last game 129-119 over Washington should jumpstart a nice run for them as they fight for position in the Western Conference. They are the more rested team here and should put up another big total like they did vs. Washington. The Cavs are last in the league in defensive efficiency (Wizards are second to last). Donovan Mitchell has scored 30 or more in the last four games for Utah and should continue that streak in a big win tonight. Play on UTAH AAA |
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03-01-20 | 76ers +13 v. Clippers | Top | 130-136 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA We all know about the Sixers’ struggles on the road. While the league’s preeminent home team (28-2 SU at home!), Philly is only 9-21 straight up in road games. That difference of -19 (home vs. road wins) is seven games more than the team with the second biggest split. Today they are at the Clippers, who have won three straight games by double digits. Two were at home and those margins of victory were 27 and 29 points. Despite all of this, we are grabbing the big number with the road dog. You’re not likely to get this many points with the Sixers in any game all season. Obviously that has to do with the fact Joel Embiid will miss the game with a shoulder injury. Ben Simmons is out too. But still this is too many points. The Clippers can have “off-nights” defensively and the Sixers have still won 6 out of their last 8 games. There’s been just one time all season that LA covered four in a row and it was back in December. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-28-20 | Wizards v. Jazz -10 | Top | 119-129 | Push | 0 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH A long homestand typically provides a team an opportunity to start rolling, but in the case of the current one for the Utah Jazz, that certainly hasn’t been the case. The last four games have all ended with them on the “short end of the stick.” Adding insult to injury, they were favored in all four games. But tonight should be a reprieve with Washington paying a visit. The Wizards are off a win, but that was against a Nets team that is playing without Kyrie Irving. The two games before that, the Wizards got 50+ point games from Bradley Beal and still lost! On January 12th, the Jazz went to D.C. and won 127-116 as 6.5-point favorites. Winning by more at home shouldn’t prove too difficult. The Wizards are 7-21 SU on the road and it can’t be stressed enough just how bad they have been defensively. They are giving up an average of 123.5 points in road games, the highest such average in the league. Expect a big bounce back effort from the home team tonight. Play on UTAH AAA |
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02-26-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +7.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND On Monday, Cleveland hosted a top 5 team in the East (Miami) whose play dips rather significantly on the road. Sure enough, the Cavs beat the Heat in overtime, 125-119 as a 6.5-point home underdog. It was a rather shocking come from behind effort as the Cavs trailed by 19 going into the fourth quarter. Of course, the Heat’s road woes are well documented. We bring this up because the team Cleveland hosts tonight sees an even more dramatic dropoff when they are on the road and that’s Philadelphia. The Sixers are a league-best 27-2 straight up at home. But their road record is 9-20. That is easily the biggest gap any team in the league has when it comes to home vs. road wins. So can Cleveland pull the same trick twice in a row? Not sure about them winning straight up tonight, but we do like the points as the 76ers are 1-9 ATS in road games where the total is 220 or higher. They are 4-8-1 ATS as a road favorite with six outright losses. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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02-25-20 | Hornets v. Pacers -10.5 | Top | 80-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Both of these teams just got their tails kicked in. For Charlotte, it was Saturday when they lost at home to Brooklyn by 29 points, a real “bad look” considering the Nets are now without Kyrie Irving. Still, in terms of margin, the loss wasn’t as bad as what Indiana suffered Sunday in Toronto as they went down 127-81. One of the teams will get to bounce back from the embarrassing defeat Monday and our money is on the Pacers as not only are they playing at home, they are also simply the much better basketball team at this juncture. Even with three consecutive upsets straddling the All-Star Break, the Hornets are still only 4-14 straight up their past 18 games and when they lose it’s generally by a wide margin. The Hornets’ record in games decided by 10 points or more is a lousy 4-24 straight up. They are also just 2-19 vs. teams that have winning records while going 5-14-2 against the spread. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-24-20 | Hawks v. 76ers -8 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA The Sixers are back home Monday and you should know what that means. It’s a virtual guarantee that they’ll play better than they did Saturday night in Milwaukee when they lost 119-98. That loss dropped Philly to 9-20 in road games. They are 26-2 at home. Throw in the fact that they go from facing the league’s best team to (maybe) its worst and it should be a complete “reversal of fortune” here. While the Hawks are 2-0 since returning from the All Star Break, each of those wins came at home. They have only six road wins all year and only one in the last 30 days. Philadelphia is playing with revenge tonight as well. They lost in Atlanta last month. (They also won there early in the season). The Sixers are an impressive +10.0 points/game compared to their opponents here at home. They are 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 220 or higher (total here is currently 229). Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-22-20 | 76ers +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-119 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA We all know about how the Sixers perform on the road relative to how they do at home. On Thursday, they defeated the Brooklyn Nets by a score of 112-104. That improved their already league-best home record to 26-2 straight up. However, they’ve gone just 9-19 straight up on the road and tonight finds them playing in Milwaukee. Despite this seemingly “insurmountable” task the 76ers are facing, we like them to come through with the cash tonight on ABC. Impressive as they have been, the Bucks cannot possibly continue to win by these large margins. What’s interesting is that they have played only 17 games all season against teams that have winning records (fewest in the league). They are 10-7 straight up in those games and 7-10 against the spread. They’ve lost only 1 time all year to a team with a losing record. A couple of weeks ago Philly came here and lost by 11. We think they’ll do better this time as this game means more to them than it does to the Bucks. They did beat the Bucks earlier in the year (at home). Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-21-20 | Spurs v. Jazz -7 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH The Spurs were done a favor last night as Memphis lost, meaning San Antonio is now within 3.5 games of the 8th (and final) playoff spot out West. Utah has its eyes on a bigger prize as they went into the All Star Break 4th in the conference and on a 4-game win streak. The last three wins were against Houston, Dallas and Miami and the Jazz covered all three. This is a step down in class from those teams, all of which are solidly in the playoff mix. Two of the wins (Houston, Dallas) even came on the road. Speaking of the road, it has been unkind to San Antonio. The annual “Rodeo Road Trip” began on Feb 3rd and has seen the Spurs go 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS with the only straight up win coming at Oklahoma City right before the break. Utah has a big edge defensively in this matchup as they give up only 104.1 points/game at home while SA allows 116.4 on the road. Utah is 20-5 at home while SA is 9-19 on the road. This is the Spurs first visit to Salt Lake City this season and the Jazz have revenge for losing as a five-point favorite in the Alamo last month. Play on UTAH AAA |
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02-20-20 | Grizzlies v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 125-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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02-12-20 | Hornets v. Wolves -8.5 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Timberwolves laying this many points should tell you something and that “something” is that Charlotte is not good. While the Hornets did just win an ugly 87-76 game at Detroit two nights ago, that was preceded by five consecutive losses. Overall they’ve dropped 13 of 15 games and fallen near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. There are only three teams in the league that have been outscored by more points. Those are Cleveland, Atlanta and Golden State, who happen to have the three worst records in the league. So expect more losses to pile up for Charlotte in the coming weeks. In terms of laying this many points with the Timberwolves, who have lost 14 of their last 15 games, do not fret. They already won at Charlotte by 22 points earlier in the year. In the last home game, they hung 142 on the Clippers. If they can do that to a good team like the Clippers, they can certainly blowout the Hornets. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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02-11-20 | Bulls v. Wizards -2.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON The Chicago Bulls have not made the playoffs in several seasons. This year, the Eastern Conference is really lacking in depth so fans in the Windy City were hoping the drought would end. Unfortunately though, the Bulls are 16 games below .500 and have lost five in a row. Defense has been atrocious with them giving up 124 points/game during the current losing streak. Bad defense is something Washington knows all too well, but it was a poor offensive effort that cost them against Memphis on Monday night. They finished with only 99 points, the first time in a month they failed to break 100. The Wizards are normally a good offensive team (they average 115.5 points/game) so look for them to get back on track against this struggling Bulls team tonight. What happened against Memphis was they fell apart late, missing 18 of 22 shots in the fourth quarter as a double digit lead evaporated. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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02-10-20 | Nets v. Pacers -7 | Top | 106-105 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Indiana comes into Monday on a five-game losing streak. Two of the losses came to a Toronto team that has won 14 in a row. The Pacers are lucky in that the East has no real depth, so they’re not in any real danger of falling further than where they’re at right now, which is 6th. The 7th place team (Brooklyn) is who they’ll face tonight and there’s a seven game gap between the teams even with the Pacers losing streak. The Nets also just lost in Toronto and it was by the same exact score (119-118) that Indiana lost by on Feb 5th. Both teams covered the spread in those losses and the Nets do come in riding a 3-game ATS win streak. But they’ve won only one time on the road going back to the start of 2020. To us, it’s just a question of whether or not the Pacers can cover the spread and we think they can as they already hold two double digit wins over Brooklyn this year and both of those were on the road. They didn’t have Victor Oladipo either. Now the Nets don’t have Kyrie Irving. The Nets are 1-8 ATS their last nine times as a road underdog. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-09-20 | Grizzlies v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON A .500 record in the NBA may not seem like much to “crow” about, but the Grizzlies (26-26) are plenty happy with it as right now they’d be the 8th and final playoff team out West. Not much was expected from Memphis this year. Certainly not a playoff berth. But led by Ja Morant, they’ve really transformed and are currently on a 7-2 SU/ATS run. They did lose Friday in Philadelphia though. Both losses in the last nine games were on the road and by double digits. Washington is another team we expected little from this year and they’ve been more in line with that projection, coming in at 18-32. But they upset Dallas on Friday, right here at home, for what was their third win in four games. All those games have been at home and they were a three-point dog when they beat the Mavs 119-118. What we find significant about the line here is that Memphis has only been a road favorite three times previous to this. While they may be 14 games below .500, the Wizards are only 2.5 games back of the final playoff spot in the East. So don’t look for them to pack it in anytime soon. They are 10-6 ATS as a home underdog, winning nine of those games straight up. They can score (115.6 points/game) and have won seven of nine home games overall. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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02-06-20 | Spurs v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 117-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND After a four-game win streak that saw them upset Houston, the Lakers and Utah, Portland got severely humbled out in Denver Tuesday night. They lost 127-99 as a 4.5 point underdog. It was their worst defeat of the year, at least when it comes to margin. But now they return home for a big game against San Antonio. Both these teams are chasing the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Right now, the Blazers have a half game lead. San Antonio is on its annual “Rodeo Road Trip” and it hasn’t started well with losses to both the Clippers and Lakers. The Lakers got them by 27 on Tuesday so both teams are coming into this game off blowout losses. But it’s the Spurs third road game in four nights, putting them at a distinct disadvantage. The Spurs are 8-16 on the road. Damian Lillard has been on fire recently for Portland and should lead his team to an easy home victory tonight. Lay the points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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02-05-20 | Heat v. Clippers -7 | Top | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS Today is the beginning of the most challenging part of the season for the Miami Heat. From now until Feb 20th (which is the first game after the All-Star Break), they’ll be on the road. We all know what the Heat are capable of at home where they’ve gone 22-3 and just destroyed Philadelphia 137-106. But obviously the road has been far less kind as the Heat have played only .500 ball, going 12-12. The long road trip starts against one of the best teams in the league and the Clippers can be pretty rude hosts themselves. LA is 21-5 at home and this will be their final time playing here before breaking for All Star Weekend. When Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both play, the Clippers are pretty unbeatable. WIth those two both in the lineup tonight, the game being on national television and it being the last home game before the All Star Break, look for a really solid effort from the home side. The Heat are 0-3 this year after a game in which they scored 130 or more points. Play LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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02-03-20 | Knicks v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 139-134 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND We’ve got two BAD teams facing off here, although the Knicks have surprisingly been playing better of late. They’ve gone 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games, which includes a 106-86 win here in Cleveland back on MLK Day. On Saturday, the Knicks shocked the Pacers, winning 92-87 as 11-point underdogs. The Cavs have been terrible, with just one win in their past 11 games, but we like them to get revenge against the Knicks tonight. It’s been a LONG time since the Cavs won a game at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. You’d have to go back to before Christmas when they won three in a row. Since then, it’s been 10 straight losses here, including an embarrassing one to Golden State on Saturday where they were favored and lost 131-112. We expect an “all hands on deck” approach to this one from the home side as this is a game Cleveland “knows” it can win. The Knicks have won as an underdog eight times previous to the win at Indiana. Only twice have they followed that up by winning again. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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02-01-20 | Warriors v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 131-112 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND How far the mighty have fallen! The Warriors and Cavaliers met four straight years in the NBA Finals (2015-18), but that seems like “ancient history” now as Golden State (who won three of those finals) have been besieged by injuries while Cleveland (won 2016 Finals) saw LeBron James leave them for a second time. The Cavs are still trying to find their way post-LeBron, but they actually have a better record than the Warriors this season (13-36 vs. 10-39), which is obviously something that nobody anticipated being the case. Since a four-game win streak from 12/20-12/27, Golden State has won just once (1/18 vs. Orlando). They have lost 15 of 16 overall and their last road win was December 6th in Chicago! It’s 10 straight losses on the road including a pair of double digit defeats to Boston and Philadelphia this week. Therefore, we relish the opportunity to lay such a short number here, even with a team like Cleveland. It’s not like the Cavaliers aren’t going to be motivated tonight. Since the 2016 Finals (when they came back to win after facing a 3-1 series deficit), they are just 2-13 vs. Golden State including nine losses in a row. Time for that streak to end. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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01-31-20 | Mavs v. Rockets -8.5 | Top | 121-128 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON This game is on ESPN. Unfortunately, we won’t be seeing Luka Doncic as the Mavs superstar re-injured his ankle in practice Thursday. The same ankle was sprained earlier in the year causing Doncic to miss four games. He’s reportedly going to miss at least the next two. Both Dallas and Houston enter this game at 29-18, tied for 5th in the Western Conference. But with Doncic out, it’s pretty clear which team is going to be better and we’ll look to take full advantage. The Rockets have lost six of nine and just split four games on the road. They’re off a loss in Portland, 125-112 as a 5-point favorite. So look for them to come out highly motivated in their return home against a wounded rival. They are 6-2 ATS off a double digit loss this season. Dallas was just buried, at home, by Phoenix and that was with Doncic in the lineup. We faded the Mavs there as they lost for a third time in the last five games and gave up a season-high 133 points. Houston also has revenge here for a 14-point loss earlier in the year when Doncic went for 41 points. He won’t be there tonight so look for superstars James Harden and Russell Westbrook to carry the Rockets to a big victory. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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01-30-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Bad spot here for Utah as they lost last night in San Antonio and now head to Denver where they’ll have to not only deal with the elevation but also a Nuggets team that sports the same 32-15 SU record. Denver, like Utah, lost its last game. But that was in Memphis. When playing at home, the Nuggets are 18-6 and holding teams to 103.9 points/game. Utah hasn’t had many back to backs this year (only four prior to this one). The last two games have seen the Jazz fall as favorites. Not only were they -5 at San Antonio, but they were -14.5 vs. Houston as the Rockets won that game without James Harden and Russell Westbrook. A third game in four nights, with no rest, is going to be too much to overcome here as Denver is every bit as motivated off their loss. While this is the first time facing the Jazz, he Nuggets record in division games this year is 6-0 (straight up). Play on DENVER AAA |
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01-29-20 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +3 | Top | 127-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW YORK The Knicks 5-game ATS win streak came to an end last night in Charlotte as they lost to the Hornets by a score of 97-92. They blew a 13-point lead. We thought the game would end up being a lot higher scoring and the reason it wasn’t is NY couldn’t buy a basket. That was a stark contrast to their last time playing at home when they shot 53.3% in a 110-97 win over Brooklyn. The Grizzlies head to Madison Square Garden this evening looking to win a fourth straight game and for the 11th time in 13 games. Memphis also played yesterday as they beat Denver 104-96, thanks to some real sharp shooting. They finished the game at 56.1%, their third game in a row at above 52% (3-0 ATS). Don’t think they’ll be able to sustain that level of shooting. There’s also some pressure on Memphis here as a win would get them to .500, something they haven’t been this late in a season in several years. The Grizzlies have not fared well in non-conference games the last few seasons, going 20-56 straight up and 27-47 against the spread. This is a team that’s only been favored in 12 games all season! Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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01-28-20 | Suns +6 v. Mavs | Top | 133-104 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX Dallas was a winner last night as they went into Oklahoma City and prevailed 107-97. That was no small feat as the Thunder came into the game on a 5-0 SU/ATS run. Here the Mavs get to play host to a Phoenix team that is like Dallas in the sense that each probably feels they should have a better won-loss record. Though they’ve lost three of the last four games, two of them were by five points or less. This is a quick 24-hour turnaround for the Mavericks and they just played three tough road games (Utah, Portland, OKC). Winning here by any kind of substantial margin seems like a difficult proposition. Phoenix is 10-11 straight up on the road and 13-8 against the spread. They’ve won at Boston and San Antonio already this month. Grab the points. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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01-27-20 | Cavs +7 v. Pistons | Top | 115-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND The Cavs lost their seventh straight game Saturday night as a long season seemingly gets even longer. But it’s pretty crazy to think that Detroit has only five more wins on the year than Cleveland does. Seeing this number attached to the Pistons immediately caught our eye as there’s no real reason for them to be this big of a favorite. Earlier in the month, these Central Division foes played a couple of tight games - both decided by three points or less - with the road team going 2-0. The Pistons are off a couple of double digit losses here at home - to Memphis and Brooklyn - so again, not sure why anyone would want to lay this many points with them right now. The Pistons have lost six of their last nine overall and are just 9-15 straight up and against the spread on the road. They are 1-5 ATS L6 as a favorite including 0 for 4 when laying more than two points. They didn’t cover either game vs. the Cavs earlier in the month. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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01-26-20 | Raptors v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN ANTONIO Toronto has won six straight games, pulling them into a tie with Miami for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. However, the Raptors did not cover last time out as we said they would not. We took the points with the Knicks and tonight is a far more daunting road trip into San Antonio. While the Spurs are not as strong as they’ve usually been for Greg Popovich, this is a team that has won outright each of the last three times it has been getting points. They did lose, as a favorite, Friday at home to Phoenix. That game saw us go against SA, making us winners on each of these team’s last game. The Spurs won in Toronto 105-104 back on January 12th as a 4.5-point underdog. The Raptors are a bit healthier now than they were back then, but not as well rested, so this pointspread doesn’t make much sense to us. Toronto was off three days rest when they hosted the Spurs two weeks ago. Now they’re playing a second road game in three days. The Spurs have covered the last five games vs. the Raptors. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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01-25-20 | Bulls v. Cavs +1 | Top | 118-106 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND Since New Year’s Eve, Cleveland is just 2-11. Tonight at home, they hope the “third time will be the charm.” This week has seen them lose twice at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, to the Knicks and Wizards, teams that are well below .500. They were even favored (-2.5) against Washington Thursday, but lost 124-112 due to lack of defense. But tonight looks like a good time to take a flier on the Cavs. They are getting Chicago, who is fresh off a terrible showing last night at home vs. Sacramento. The Bulls lost that one 98-81 as it was the third time in the past five games they failed to score 100 points. The Bulls aren’t a great offensive team to begin with and shot just 39% last night. They had only 12 points in the fourth quarter vs. the Kings as they played for the first time without Lori Markkanen. For a Cleveland team that doesn’t win much, this is one of their more “winnable” games in some time and will be treated as such. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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01-24-20 | Suns +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 103-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX More than half of the games have already been played this NBA season and it very much looks like the top seven in the Western Conference have really solidified themselves. What order those seven teams finish in is still to be determined as is who is going to get the #8 spot. The Suns and Spurs are both contenders (for the #8 spot) and meet Friday in the Alamo. San Antonio, who hasn’t missed the playoffs since the late 1990’s, currently has the position after knocking off New Orleans in Zion Williamson’s debut Wednesday. Phoenix has the second longest active playoff drought in the league (2010) but has the feel of an improved team this year. Despite being eight games below .500, the Suns are very much a competitive team. They just faced the Spurs earlier in the week, at home, and lost by two points. So this is a revenge game and they are 18-9 ATS the L27 games in that situation. After losing by two to the Spurs Monday, it was a far worse showing vs. Indiana on Wednesday. But this is a team that’s gone 4-2 SU its last six on the road including an upset over Boston. While the Spurs are on a three-game win streak, all three wins have been by five points or less. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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01-24-20 | Raptors v. Knicks +8 | Top | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW YORK Despite losing the Finals MVP (Kawhi Leonard) to the Clippers and a myriad of holdovers to various injuries, the Raptors have persevered into 2020 with the third best record in the Eastern Conference. They’re as healthy now as they’ve been all season and that’s resulted in a five-game win streak where they’ve averaged 124.2 points/game. But tonight’s game is far trickier than its looks with the Knicks having covered three straight. New York played both Philadelphia and the Lakers tough here at home, losing those games by only three and eight points. In between, they went to Cleveland and picked up a 20-point victory. This is a pretty decent number that Toronto is laying here. Though they’ve yet to drop a game as a road favorite this season (9-0 straight up), they just failed to cover in Atlanta as 8.5-point favorites (won by 5) and that’s the only time they’ve been asked to lay more in a road game than what they are laying for this one. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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01-23-20 | Lakers v. Nets +6 | Top | 128-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN From 12/28 to 1/13, the Lakers have won nine in a row. Now they’ve lost two of the last four games. They played last night, and won, but it was in unimpressive fashion beating the Knicks 100-92. That was on the heels of a humiliating 139-107 loss in Boston Monday. The road trip continues Thursday in Brooklyn where LA will be solidly favored. This is not only because the Lakers have the best record in the Western Conference but also because the Nets have been struggling badly. It’s four straight losses for the Nets and they’ve failed to cover every time. A 2-11 record since Christmas isn’t scaring anybody. But with Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert having returned to the lineup, the Nets can only be down for so long. This is a really bad spot for the Lakers, who are playing their third road game in four days. It’s been a brutal schedule of late for the Nets. However they have been off since Monday. By not covering last night, the Lakers are just 1-5 ATS their last six tries as road favorites. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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01-22-20 | Spurs v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 121-117 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS This game was moved to 9:35 et so that it could be shown on ESPN. You may be wondering why that is considering it’s two teams with losing records. Well, tonight will mark the debut of Zion Williamson for New Orleans. The top overall choice from last summer’s draft finally takes the court and it comes at a time when the Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season. Since December 23rd, the team is 10-4 straight up and 12-1-1 ATS. They just won by 10 in Memphis, which is pretty significant seeing as the Grizzlies came in sporting the league’s longest active win streak at seven straight. The Pelicans scored 126 points and made 21 three-pointers. The Spurs don’t play great defense, so with Williamson in there and Jrue Holliday being back, look for the Pelicans to go off again. This will be a successful debut for the #1 draft pick. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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01-22-20 | Pacers v. Suns +1 | Top | 112-87 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHOENIX Indiana did not handle the second leg of a back to back well, losing by 30 at Utah on Monday. They had just beaten Denver the previous night 115-107 in a come from behind effort. The Denver-Utah doubleshot is one of the hardest in the league. But still, the Pacers losing by 30 in the second game was rather discouraging. This isn’t a great road team as the WL record is just 11-11 SU and they’ve been outscored. Phoenix, despite a 9-15 record at home, actually has a positive point differential in those games. The Suns have made the leap to respectability this year and are 13-7 ATS as underdogs. Since Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton have played together, the team is 6-5 straight up. They did lose by two to San Antonio on Monday, but shot well in the game and almost won after being down by 20. Phoenix is a much better team than you think and worthy of a play here. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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01-21-20 | Clippers +1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the CLIPPERS A lot of teams are competing for “second best” (behind the Lakers) in the Western Conference. These are two of them. The Clippers currently have that second position with a 30-13 record. They’ve won three straight coming into this game. Dallas has won four straight and has a slightly better point differential. But the Mavericks are only 5th in the West, 2.5 games back of the Clippers. Earlier this season, they lost by 15 at home to the Clippers. Both teams have recently been hampered by key absences. Kristaps Porzingis could return tonight for the Mavs after missing the last 10 games. Paul George likely will not be back for the Clippers. But we’re still on LA. They are 6-0 ATS on Tuesday nights this season. But perhaps more pertinent is the fact Dallas is just 3-7-1 ATS its previous 11 home games. We believe that - with or without George - the Clippers are the better team here. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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01-20-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -6.5 | Top | 112-107 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON This isn’t the first time that the Rockets have lost three in a row. But it does feel like a season low-point. Monday sees them hosting an Oklahoma City team that beat them on January 9th by 21 points. But that game was in Oklahoma City. While Houston has lost three in a row as favorites and two straight at home, we expect this is the spot where they get back on track. The Thunder are just 2-3 straight up and against the spread since beating the Rockets. This is a third game in four days for them. They’ve been a good bet as a road underdog, but the Thunder are statistically below average on the road. Expect a very motivated effort from the home side in this one. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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01-19-20 | Pacers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver is second in the Western Conference with a 29-12 SU record. They’ve come out ahead in five of the last six games, including each of the last three. They continue to be a strong home team as their record here in the Mile High City is 17-5 and they hold opponents to 103.1 PPG. Indiana, like most of the teams in the Eastern Conference, are strong at home but only so-so on the road. The Pacers have won four straight overall, but any of the last three could have been a loss. Now Denver did need OT to get by Golden State Thursday. But that was a road game. This seems like an awfully low number for the Nuggets to be laying on their home floor. We realize there are injuries that they are dealing with, but they still scored 134 points against the Warriors even without Murray, Milsap and Harris. Milsap could be back in the lineup tonight. Denver won 126-114 at Indiana earlier this month and is a deep team. Indiana is 6-14-1 ATS its last 21 road games vs. teams who have a home win percentage of better than .600. Play on DENVER AAA |
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01-18-20 | Bucks -8.5 v. Nets | Top | 117-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The Bucks are just plain ridiculous. At 37-6 SU, they are ahead of last year’s pace when they ended up having the best record in the league. If you’re surprised by the size of tonight’s line, you shouldn’t be. Brooklyn may have Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, but that hasn’t mattered so far as they’ve lost games to Utah and Philadelphia. Those are two good teams. But guess what? There aren’t any better teams than Milwaukee. Plus, while Irving is back, the Nets have lost some key support. It looks like backup center DeAndre Jordan is going to have to sit this one out. They may have won by only five points Thursday night, but the Bucks led Boston by as much as 20. They have scored at least 122 points in four straight games. The last three times they’ve gone to Brooklyn, they’ve come out ahead and covered the spread. The Bucks are winning by 12.5 points per game, which is amazing and we see them winning by double digits tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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01-17-20 | Wizards +10 v. Raptors | Top | 111-140 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON We may have played against Washington two nights ago in Chicago, but here we like them getting the points against Toronto. It’s more points that they’re getting obviously and it comes at a time when the team is getting much healthier. In terms of making a run at the playoffs, it might be too late to save the season, but the Wizards are probably an undervalued team right now. As for Toronto, who has been dealing with its own set of injuries, they took care of business in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. It was a 130-121 win as a 1-pt underdog. But not since Christmas have the Raptors put together two straight wins. This is probably their best shot to do so, but as mentioned earlier, it’s a very large number that they’ll be laying and it's to an opponent that averages 114.6 points/game. The Wizards led both at halftime and in the fourth quarter in Chicago. While they’ve gone 4-20 vs. Toronto going back seven seasons, they lost by just four here last month. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in games with a total of 220 or more this season. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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01-15-20 | Wizards v. Bulls -4.5 | Top | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO The door is open for the Bulls to make a playoff run, they simply won’t “walk through.” A dreadful stretch has seen them go 1-7 straight up and against the spread. Looking at their last four wins, two have been against Detroit, one against Atlanta (who has the worst record in the league) and the other against the team they are hosting tonight, Washington. The Wizards have their own set of issues. Due to injuries, they’ve had a pretty lousy last month or so. They’ve won just six times going all the way back to December 6th. By rule, somebody has to win this matchup and we believe it’ll be Chicago and they’ll do so pretty easily. Washington is the league’s worst defensive team and the fact they give up 121.6 points/game on the road makes them almost unplayable at this number. Chicago has covered five of the last seven times it has taken on an opponent that has a losing record. Tonight is only the second time the Wizards have played on the road since Christmas. They lost by 34 at Orlando last week. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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01-14-20 | Mavs v. Warriors +9 | Top | 124-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE Everybody knows this is not the same Warriors team from the last half decade. But as recently as Christmas there were signs that they might be able to turn around what seemed to be a lost season. They won four in a row including an upset of Houston on Christmas Day. But since then it’s been all downhill with an eight-game losing streak. To be fair, they were underdogs in all eight games and getting double digits in five. So it’s not like the oddsmakers are expecting them to win. But they certainly could be more competitive. Tonight the Warriors are facing the team that started the losing streak, Dallas, who has gone only 3-5 its last eight games. Our view here is that while the Mavericks likely win, they aren’t going to cover the large spread on the road. A national TV game should be enough to inspire Golden State tonight and they obviously are already motivated enough to end this long losing streak. Dallas just hasn’t been playing very well of late, save for Saturday’s win against Philadelphia. But that was at home. The Mavs have scored at least 140 points in both wins against Golden State this year. That won’t happen again and it’s yet another reason to think the home dog comes out motivated. Dallas is 0-6 ATS their last six games off an ATS victory. They are 0-5 ATS off a SU win of more than 10 points. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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01-13-20 | Thunder v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Before running into the Lakers Sat night, Oklahoma City had been on quite the roll. They’d covered the number in eight straight games and had won 11 of their last 13 straight up. But the 125-110 loss to LA, a game where the Lakers played without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, was a terribly disappointing result. Our view is that the Thunder, after overachieving for much of the first half of the season, could now be in a position where we start to see them “give some back.” Tonight’s game marks only the 4th time they will have been a road favorite this season. It comes against a Timberwolves team coming off its worst loss of the season. It was by 30 to Houston and they gave up 139 points. But not only has Minnesota covered four straight times when off a loss, they have had OKC’s number in the past as well, covering the spread in eight of the last nine matchups. The lone non-cover was last month in Oklahoma City, so that’s more revenge for the Timberwolves. The fact the Thunder won that last meeting by a score of 139-127 was highly misleading. The game went to overtime after a missed free throw (by Minnesota) and subsequent technical foul for a player not having his jersey tucked in properly. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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01-12-20 | Hornets v. Suns -8 | Top | 92-100 | Push | 0 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX Charlotte isn’t a good team. But the fact they’ve even won 15 games is a bit misleading. They have a bottom five point differential and have lost 9 of their last 11 games. Both wins were by just three points. They have eight wins by three points or less this season, which is by far the most in the league. If not for all of those, they’d certainly be at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. So we’ll be looking to fade them Sunday night in Phoenix with our strongest NBA side bet of the week. The Suns may also have only 15 wins themselves, but they have been outscored by just 1.1 points/game. That’s actually tied for the 8th best differential in the Western Conference. After years of losing, the Suns are improved this year. They won at Charlotte last month, 109-104, as a four-point favorite. They should be favored by more here. Charlotte has not won on a Sunday all season (0-6 SU) and has gone 1-5 ATS in those games. This is Phoenix’s fifth straight game at home. They are coming off a 98-94 win against Orlando. Charlotte is playing its second road game in three nights. They lost by 17 at Utah Friday. Play on PHOENIX. AAA |
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01-10-20 | Lakers v. Mavs -1.5 | Top | 129-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS Compared to the Lakers, Dallas has a very similar point differential and net efficiency rating. However, they are lagging well behind in the standings. The Mavericks have fallen all the way down to 6th place in the West, seven games back of LA. It was a tough loss on Wednesday as they fell here at home, 107-106 to Denver. That makes tonight’s game even more important. The Mavs have caught a big break in that Anthony Davis is out (tailbone) and LeBron James hasn’t been feeling well. So it’s a game the Mavs really should win. The Lakers haven’t lost since Christmas, going 6-0 since, so you couldn’t fault them if they failed to match the sense of urgency Dallas has coming into tonight’s showdown. Key here is that the Mavericks were favored against Denver on Wednesday. They are a perfect 9-0 ATS this season when coming off a loss as a favorite! While just 2-3 straight up their last five games, all three losses by the Mavs have been by five points or less. They are better than their record and actually one of the top teams in the league. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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01-10-20 | Heat v. Nets +3.5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 10* on BROOKLYN The way things are going right now, this could end up being a 1st round playoff series. Miami has won 8 of its last 10 games to get to 27-10 on the year and that’s good enough for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn has spent much of this season in 7th place, but has recently fallen to 8th as they’ve lost seven in a row and even worse failed to cover all seven games. This despite Caris LeVert returning to the lineup after a lengthy absence. Kyrie (Irving) won’t be back for at least another week, so someone needs to step up for the Nets. They’ve been hit by some bad luck lately. Tuesday’s 111-103 loss to Oklahoma City went to overtime and dropped the Nets to 1-4 in OT games this season. We think them getting the Heat at home Friday night is a good spot. First off, Miami may be a league-best 17-1 at home. But they are just 10-9 on the road and have given up more points than they have scored. It was a three-point game when they came to Brooklyn on December 1st. The Heat are also off an upset win in Indiana. They’ve covered just once in five previous tries this year when off a win as an underdog. The Nets fortunes are due to change and the same is true for Miami. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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01-08-20 | Nuggets v. Mavs -3 | Top | 107-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS Dallas comes into this game in sixth place in the Western Conference. But at 23-13 overall, they are only two games back of second place Denver, whom they host here. They'll do so without the services of Kristaps Porizingis, but Luka Doncic is here and he's coming off a 38-point, 11-rebound and 10-assist game Monday vs. Chicago. It was Doncic's 9th time scoring at least 30 while registering a triple double and the Mavericks won 118-110. Meanwhile, this is hardly the most ideal time for the Nuggets to face a matchup like this. It will be their fifth road game in a row and it's a trip that began all the way back on New Year's Eve. Denver has not been playing good defense of late, giving 120.8 points the last five games including 128 and 130 in two losses on this trip. Dallas has the most efficient offense in the NBA in terms of points per possession. This is the Mavs fourth straight game at home, so the situation totally favors them. We have them rated several points better than Denver so it looks like we're getting a real bargain with the pointspread. The Nuggets did win in Atlanta Monday, but have failed to cover off their five previous victories. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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01-07-20 | Knicks v. Lakers -13 | Top | 87-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the LAKERS The Lakers have won five in a row overall, the last four of which have been at home. On paper, this homestand seemed to set up very favorably for them with mostly games against teams with losing records. But while they've been winning, they have not been covering in the New Year. After jumping out to a 36-point lead against Phoenix, they won by only 10 as an 11-point favorite. It was a similar deal two nights later vs. New Orleans as they led by 20+ in the third quarter, but won by only 10 as 10.5-point favorites. Sunday vs. Detroit was a much different deal as they actually trailed going into the fourth quarter, which was good for us as we had the Pistons +14.5 (final score was 106-99). Tonight is a very similar matchup as the Lakers host the Knicks. But this is where we see LA covering the spread. The Knicks may be 4-1 ATS L5, but they are still a really bad team. We can easily establish that they'll lose here being that the last two years they are 1-16 straight up as a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Only two of those games were this year. But they were just 4-11 ATS in the role the last two years. Lakers are 9-2-1 ATS vs. teams with a sub-.400 win percentage. Play on LA LAKERS AAA |
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01-06-20 | Nets +5.5 v. Magic | Top | 89-101 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN Brooklyn got Caris LeVert back in the lineup Saturday, but that failed to turn the tide as for a fifth consecutive game they came out on the losing end. This time it was at home to Toronto, who is a good team but also came in short-handed. The Nets got spanked 121-102 in a very disappointing result for them as they were actually favored. But with LeVert back, this is going to be a better team and we see this line for Monday's game at Orlando getting a bit out of hand. These teams seem pretty even and the case could be made Brooklyn is better. Orlando lost its last game, at home, by 13. The Magic don't score enough (103.3 points/game) to give us any confidence in them laying points here. They've lost 9 of 14 themselves. Should be a close game where taking points is a must. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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01-05-20 | Pistons +15 v. Lakers | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DETROIT The Lakers have a bad habit of letting their opponents sneak through the back door in the 4th quarter. So as long as they're laying these high numbers, we're likely to be considering the other side. On New Year's Day, LA ended up not covering against Phoenix despite taking an early 30+ point lead. They led by 20+ going into the fourth quarter of Friday's game vs. New Orleans and didn't cover there either. It's just a 2-8 ATS record the last 10 games for the Purple & Gold and they are laying a big number here against Detroit as the Pistons played last night at Golden State. Even thought its back to back, we look for the Pistons to cover. They did win last night, 111-104, and while it's big jump in class going from facing the Warriors to the Lakers, it's a lot of points too. Detroit has had its share of ATS woes, covering just 2 of its last 10 games. But they are the ones getting double digits tonight, which makes it easier even though they are probably going to be without Blake Griffin. The Pistons are only being outscored by 2.8 points/game this year. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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01-01-20 | Blazers -3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 93-117 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND After making it all the way to the Western Conference Finals last season, Portland has greatly underachieved so far in the 2019-20 season. They are currently in ninth place and six games below .500 after ending 2019 on a four-game losing streak. They haven't covered the spread in any of the four games either. The most recent loss was at home to Phoenix, 122-116 as a four-point favorite. That game saw the Blazers blow a 19-point lead. So you know they're looking to come out and start the New Year strong. It's an ideal opponent to get on track as they face the Knicks. While NY has played better since the coaching change, winning its last two games and five of its last nine, they still are just 9-24 SU. The only team that scores less points per game is Orlando. The Knicks don't play much defense either as they are 27th in efficiency. One Blazer that will be very motivated to play well this evening is Carmelo Anthony, making his return to MSG. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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12-31-19 | 76ers v. Pacers +2 | Top | 97-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Two of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference meet in Indiana to close out 2019. The Pacers host the Sixers in a battle of teams looking to rebound from back to back losses. Philadelphia's two losses both came on the road and were both one-point decisions. They lost 98-97 to Orlando and 117-116 to Miami. That drops their road record to 7-10 SU, a far cry from a 16-2 SU record in home games. Both Indiana losses were also on the road. They also lost by one down in Miami (113-112) but then got humiliated by New Orleans, 120-98, on Saturday. Good for the Pacers that they're at home tonight. If there's one commonality among these top Eastern Conference teams, it's that they're all really good at home, but so-so on the road. They're a collective 87-15 SU in home games with five of the losses belonging to Toronto. Indiana's record at home is 14-3 SU. We view these teams as being pretty even. Therefore, the Pacers are a great value getting points at home. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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12-30-19 | Pistons +10 v. Jazz | Top | 81-104 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DETROIT Without question, the last couple weeks have gone very differently for these two. Detroit is 1-6 SU and ATS its last seven games, the only win coming against a bad Washington team. Two nights ago in San Antonio they suffered another embarrassing setback, falling by 27 (136-109). Utah has won seven of eight (4-2-2 ATS) and is off an impressive win over the Clippers where they held Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to a combined 12 of 44 shooting. But coming off a win where they were seven-point underdogs, we don't like the idea of the Jazz laying this big number even if they are facing a struggling opponent. They're 0-5 ATS this year after a double digit win. (Final score vs. Clippers was 120-107). They've not been especially great as a large favorite either. They're just 2-6 ATS when laying eight points or more. Detroit has only been outscored by 2.1 points/game this year. They should be motivated here. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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12-28-19 | Grizzlies +9 v. Nuggets | Top | 110-119 | Push | 0 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS We played against Christmas night and they lost outright to what most feel is a pretty bad New Orleans team. That was at home and they lost by 12 as a nine-point favorite. It's a pretty similar matchup for the Nuggets today vs. Memphis and we don't like them to cover this one either. The Grizzlies come in having just upset Oklahoma City. That was the day after Christmas and they won 110-97 as a six-point underdog. While Denver had won seven straight before losing to the Pelicans, that win streak required some come from behind efforts against less than stellar teams. Five of those wins came by a margin less less than this pointspread here. Despite being 13-4 SU at home, the Nuggets are just 6-9-2 ATS. Memphis actually doesn't have much dropoff on the road compared to their numbers at home. They've won six of the last 10 games overall straight up. Other than a dismal showing at home vs. San Antonio last week, they've been in every one of those games. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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12-25-19 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS It's been a pretty ugly first two months of the season for New Orleans. Top draft choice Zion Williamson hasn't played a game and his teammates have managed to win only eight of 31 games. But there's been a glimmer of hope recently in that the Pelicans have won two of their last three games and the only loss was by four points. They've suffered just two double digit losses in the last seven games and one was to Milwaukee. So even though they are a decided underdog tonight in Denver, don't be scared to take the points. The Pelicans beat the Nuggets in the first game of the season, 122-107 as a four-point home dog. While Denver storms into Christmas on a seven-game win streak, they are just 3-3-1 ATS in those games and none of the spreads that they covered were as large as this one. When off three or more straight wins, the Nuggets are just 3-7 ATS this season. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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12-25-19 | Celtics v. Raptors +3.5 | Top | 118-102 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Boston and Toronto come into Christmas vying for that #2 spot in the Eastern Conference pecking order (behind Milwaukee of course). Right now, it belongs to Boston, who has won three in a row and seven of nine this month. Most of these wins have come at home, however. Toronto has been a difficult place to play for the Celtics as they are 0-4 SU and ATS here the last two seasons. Overall, it's been eight straight defeats in Canada. The Raptors are without Pascal Siakam right now, but they've been playing undermanned and thus undervalued much of the year. This is a team that's gone 13-3 at home. They haven't lost a game in regulation in two weeks, so we can't pass up the opportunity to take points with them. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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12-23-19 | Wizards v. Knicks -3 | Top | 121-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW YORK The Knicks being favored AND getting a ringing endorsement like this from us is a pretty rare occurrence. But the Wizards are in pretty rough shape here as they have numerous players injured and have lost 12 of their last 15 games. Defensively, Washington is as bad as they come. They've allowed 122.8 points/game those last 15 games as opponents are shooting better than 50% overall and 38% from three-point range. Yes, the Knicks have been blown out two straight games, but those were against Miami and Milwaukee. The Wizards are a team they should beat at home. NY has won its last three games vs. teams that are below .500 including a 143-120 triumph over Atlanta here at Madison Square Garden last week. They'd actually covered four straight games before running into the Heat and Bucks. The Wizards are 4-13 on the road. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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12-22-19 | Hornets v. Celtics -13 | Top | 93-119 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON Often you'll find that in the NBA, oddsmakers fail to properly account for the massive discrepancy between the league's best and worst teams. Such is the case in this one. You may be hesitant to call Charlotte one of the league's worst, but the Hornets certainly have "the point differential to prove it" as they're getting outscored by an even six points per contest. That's sixth worst in the entire NBA. The Hornets lost by seven last night at home to Utah. Being in a back to back isn't ideal when traveling to Boston to face the Celtics, who are near the top of the league in point differential. The Celtics are 11-1 at home and did cover the only other time they were asked to lay this many points. That was against Cleveland two weeks ago. It was yet another blowout win at home Friday when the Celtics beat the Pistons 114-93 as a nine-point favorite. That was despite Kemba Walker scoring only two points on 0 of 6 shooting. Expect Walker to shoot a lot better against his former team on Sunday and this should be a blowout for one of the deepest teams in the NBA. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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12-19-19 | Nets +3 v. Spurs | Top | 105-118 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN Brooklyn somehow escaped New Orleans with a win on Tuesday. By their own admission, they were "pretty bad offensively" against the Pelicans, but a strong defensive effort led them to a 108-101 win in overtime. Now beating a team that hadn't won a game in almost a month is no cause for celebration. But remember the Nets are shorthanded. Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert remain out with injuries and Kevin Durant is unlikely to play this year. Thankfully Spencer Dinwiddie has stepped up, averaging 24.3 points/game in Irving's absence. The Nets are 11-5 SU so far without Kyrie and are a solid seventh in the Eastern Conference. They are also playing great defense, holding the last five opponents to an 103-point average on 39% shooting. Despite the injuries, we still see them as the better team compared to San Antonio, who has been a disaster at the betting window all season with a league-worst 6-18 ATS record. After playing a league-record four consecutive overtime games, the Spurs blew a 25-point lead on Tuesday and lost in Houston. This is a team running on fumes and we'll take the points here. Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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12-18-19 | Heat +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Philadelphia is getting a lot of respect here because they are undefeated at home. Their perfect 14-0 record at the Wells Fargo Center certainly should carry some weight as no other team in the NBA can claim to still be perfect at home. But Miami is a worth adversary and certainly capable of winning this game. It just so happens the 76ers are off their worst loss of the year. A severely depleted Brooklyn team beat them by 20 on Sunday. Now the Sixers didn't have Embiid, who should be returning tonight. But the Heat are a lot tougher than the Nets, even though they (Miami) just lost at Memphis two nights ago. Prior to that, the Heat hadn't lost to a team with a losing record all year. So they're in bounce back mode just like Philly is and taking the points seems to be the best option in this battle of top five Eastern Conference teams. The Heat are 3-1 ATS this year after giving up 115+ points in their last game. The Sixers didn't do well the only other time they were off a double digit loss, losing to Oklahoma City the next time out. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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12-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets +4.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHARLOTTE Sacramento rolled to a 100-79 victory over Golden State in its last game. Because it was such an easy win (we had the Under), the Kings now find themselves favored by more than they should be tonight in Charlotte. While its true the Kings have now won four of five, three of those wins were by a total of six points. This is actually their fourth straight game being favored, but before blowing out the Warriors, they'd failed the previous two times and were 0-3 ATS L3 as chalk. The Kings were seven-point favorites over the Hornets at home back on October 30th and lost that game straight up, 118-111. Surprisingly, the Kings are 3-0 ATS as road favorites this year, but this should be closer to a pick 'em as we're getting value on Charlotte due them suffering a blowout loss at Indiana on Sunday. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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12-16-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -10 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON This is a very bad spot for San Antonio, who has played a NBA record four straight overtime games. Three of those have resulted in wins. One, a double OT affair, saw them beat tonight's opponent. But it was not without controversy. That was the game where referees mistakenly disallowed a James Harden dunk, leading to a wild sequence of events where the Spurs ended up erasing a 22-point deficit. While the Rockets protest of that game was not upheld, they'll get their revenge tonight. Adding fuel to the fire is that they are off an upset loss the other night to Detroit. They shot just 40% in the loss and scored the fewest number of points in a game (107) in nearly a month. The Spurs are a league-worst 5-18 against the spread this year and that includes 0-8 if they scored 115 or more points in their last game. They are coming off a 121-119 win over Phoenix, which was played in Mexico City. That detour "south of the border" is another disadvantage the Spurs are facing and it's really difficult to see them playing well tonight. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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12-14-19 | Nets v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto is in its worst stretch of the season, having lost four of five games. They've gone 0-5 ATS and now face division foe Brooklyn, who is 8-2 ATS as an underdog. But with Kyrie Irving set to miss a 14th straight game, I don't see the Nets competing tonight. They just lost to Charlotte, as a 9.5-point favorite, Wednesday. That game saw them blow a 20-point lead. Caris LeVert has missed 15 straight games. Toronto is fully healthy, so the stretch of losing seems oddly timed. But also look at who they've lost to - Houston, Miami, Philadelphia and the Clippers. All of those are top teams. Brooklyn is below average and has lost eight straight times here in Toronto. After shooting poorly the last five games (below 40%), look for the Raptors to get it going offensively tonight. They average 116 points/game at home. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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12-11-19 | Celtics v. Pacers +1 | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Winners of four straight, Boston has a 17-5 record. They've also covered the spread the last four games. But here's where we start adding caveats. The Celtics are 10-0 at home. That's where they've played the last three games. The road finds them at a less impressive 7-5. Tonight they're in Indiana to a face a Pacers team that's not to be taken lightly. Coming off a five-game road trip where every game was close (finished 3-2 SU/ATS), the Pacers returned home Monday to face the Clippers. They lost 110-99 as it was a poor shooting night. But the Pacers haven't lost two straight at home all year. They are 9-3 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Boston is a shocking 11-0 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season. But a good number of those games were at home where they are undefeated. Before they won New York on December 1st, the Celtics had failed to cover three straight times as road favorites with two outright losses. Indiana will be taking this game quite seriously. Not that Boston won't. But the Pacers have a score to settle in the sense that they have lost seven in a row to the Celtics, including a four-game sweep in last year's playoffs. Time for some revenge! Play on INDIANA AAA |
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12-09-19 | Thunder +8 v. Jazz | Top | 104-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKC Oklahoma City is in a back to back but this is too many points for Utah to be laying. They lost two All-Stars in the offseason, but the Thunder are hanging tough and a pretty average team. That may not sound like any kind of ringing endorsement, but most were thinking this team was going to finish well below .500. Truthfully, Utah hasn't been a whole lot better than OKC this season. They have. Both teams have outscored the opposition by < than 1 pt per game. The Thunder have won 4 of 5 did go into Portland last night and come away with a 108-96 win as 3.5-point dogs. The Jazz beat Memphis Saturday night, but have lost five of seven overall and both wins were against Memphis. It's been awhile since Utah beat a decent team. Just because the Thunder played last night doesn't mean they should be the big of an underdog. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
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12-08-19 | Kings v. Mavs -7.5 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS The oddmakers have essentially been "asleep at the wheel" when it comes to the Mavericks team, which just surpassed the Lakers for the best point differential in the Western Conference. Following Saturday's 130-84 beatdown of New Orleans, the Mavs are outscoring teams by 10.3 points per game this season. Thus the oddsmakers probably couldn't make this number high enough for a home date with Sacramento. Dallas is 10-1 straight up and against the spread its last 11 games. Three wins, including yesterday's, have come by more than 40 points! Barring some kind of mental letdown, they should win tonight's home game with ease. The Kings have lost three games in a row, all of them to teams with losing records. This will be a third straight road game for them as well. They are just 3-9 on the road so far. Sacramento actually has the same ATS record as Dallas for the season. Both are 13-8. But the difference is that the Mavericks have seven more straight up wins. The Kings actually swept last year's season series, winning all three matchups. This is a different year. The Kings may be without both De'Aron Fox and Marvin Bagley III. They are in trouble here. Play on DALLAS. AAA |
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12-06-19 | Clippers v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 91-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE No idea why this early season showdown isn't on ESPN. But we'll be watching as the Bucks bring a 13-game win streak into Friday. They lost just one time in November and that was in the second night of a back to back, by three points, at Utah. Ironically, that last defeat came one night after the Bucks beat the Clippers. It was 129-124 in LA as the Bucks were actually six-point road favorites. Paul George did not play in that game and neither did Kawhi Leonard. The presence of the two LA superstars is not something we feel is enough to stem the tide here in Milwaukee. The Clippers have been a dominant home team so far, going 13-1 straight up at Staples Center. But they are only 3-5 on the road (2-6 ATS). This will be among the toughest road games of the year, if not THE toughest. The Bucks are 9-1 at home. But they're not just winning, they are consistently blowing teams out. Their average margin of victory here in Milwaukee is 15.1 points/game! Look for them to sweep this season series. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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12-06-19 | Magic -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 93-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ORLANDO Cleveland has been the gift that keeps on giving for Orlando. The Magic are already 2-0 against the Cavs this season with those wins have come by 9 and 12 points. For this third meeting, the Magic come in on a three-game win streak. This is the second time Orlando has been on a three-game win streak. The first ended with a 113-97 loss to Toronto. But there's a big difference in facing the NBA Champs and the pitiful Cavs. Cleveland has lost 10 of 11 and was just beaten by 27 here at home Tuesday night. That 27-point loss was to a Pistons team that had not won consecutive games all season. The Cavs were never really in the game and trailed by as many as 35 points. While still under .500 for the year, the Magic have always done one thing well. That's play defense. The number of points they allow - 103.4 per game - is tops in the conference. More encouraging is the way they've increased their own scoring recently. The last two games have seen them post season-highs with 127 and 128 points. Orlando may not have a good road record, but neither does Detroit and they just blew out the Cavs. Look for the Magic to win a season-best fourth straight game. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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12-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors -2 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto is a team that continues to be underrated by the oddsmakers. Only the Bucks and Lakers have a better point differential on a per possession basis. Because they lost Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, it was thought the NBA Champs would take a step back this year. That hasn't been the case at all. The Raptors just suffered their first loss at home. It saw them go to overtime with Miami on Tuesday. Given the game went to OT, the fact they lost by 11 points is misleading. They went 0 for 9 from the field in OT, eight of those misses coming from three-point land. Toronto is healthier than its been in awhile with both Serge Ibaka and Kyle Lowry back. Lowry actually returned for the Heat game. In his absence, the team played remarkably well. They'd won seven in a row prior to Tuesday. Houston is also coming off an overtime loss here. Theirs was a 2OT affair. They blew a 22-point lead, which makes things even more painful. There was a controversial call where a James Harden dunk was disallowed and obviously that was the difference in a 135-133 final. The Rockets had their own long win streak last month (eight in a row), but have actually lost four of six since. They are 5-5 on the road. Toronto deserves more respect at home. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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12-04-19 | Pacers v. Thunder | Top | 107-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA The Pacers deserve to be favorites here and we anticipate they will be by tipoff. They've won six of their last seven games and shot at least 50% from the field in their last five victories. Oklahoma City has actually performed a whole lot better than we thought they would. There was a mass talent exodus in the offseason with Paul George leaving for LA and Russell Westbrook going to Houston. Yet the Thunder are a somewhat respectable 8-11 SU on the year. But they just swept a home and home from New Orleans, meaning they were 6-11. Both wins over the Pelicans were close as it was a five-point win in OKC and a three-point win in NO. Since starting 0-3, Indiana has gone 13-4 with two of the four losses coming by three points or less. The other two were to Houston and Milwaukee, two of the league's better teams. The big key here is that OKC is just 1-7 SU vs. teams that have winning records. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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12-01-19 | Celtics -8 v. Knicks | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON Boston took a loss in Brooklyn Friday afternoon, a game in which they didn't even face former teammate Kyrie Irving. Maybe it was the early start, but the Celtics didn't come out sharp and fell behind by 14 points in the first quarter. They never really recovered. It should be a much easier time against New York's other team, the Knicks, who have lost five straight to fall to 4-15. In those five straight losses, NY has scored no more than 104 points. They couldn't even hold a 16-point lead against Philadelphia Friday, losing here at home 101-95. The Celtics remain one of the league's premier defensive teams as they are holding opponents to a 43.2 FG%. They have lost two games in a row just one time this season and those were road games vs. the Nuggets and Clippers. The only previous time they lost a game where they were favored to win, they came back and won the next one by 14 points. This is the third meeting already this season. The Knicks played the Celtics tough in Boston, losing by just two, but also lost at home to them by 23. This is a bottom five team with nothing going for it. Play accordingly. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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11-29-19 | Bucks -10 v. Cavs | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The Cavs aren't a good team. They've lost eight of nine and just got beat here at home by Orlando by 12 points. That doesn't bode well as Milwaukee comes to town Friday night. The Bucks are 15-3 and have won nine in a row. They look every bit as strong as they did last year when they won 60 games. Not only have the Cavs lost eight of nine games, they've also gone 2-7 against the spread. They rank near the bottom of the league both offensively and defensively. Milwaukee beat Cleveland by 17 earlier in the year with seven players scoring in double figures. This is an elite team (maybe the best in the league?) matched up against one of the five worst. Should be easy pickings. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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11-26-19 | Wizards +9.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON Denver is 12-3. They've won five games in a row and nine of their last 10. They were a double digit favorite in their last game and covered the spread (barely), beating a rising Suns team 116-104. Washington is a young team with a 5-9 record. But the Wizards can score. They are averaging 119.1 points/game. Only Milwaukee scores more than that. The Wizards aren't great defensively and they did just drop a home game to Sacramento on Sunday. But they were favorites in that loss and got held to 106 points. Hitting their scoring average here would likely mean a very easy ATS win, given how many points they are getting. Before they lost to the Kings, Washington had covered five straight times. They won three of the five games, including two as underdogs. Denver's defense definitely presents a challenge. But the Wizards are 8-1 ATS as underdogs so far and 6-1 ATS on the road. Because the Nuggets play at the second slowest pace in the league, they aren't likely to break away in this one. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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11-25-19 | Grizzlies v. Pacers -9.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on INDIANA Memphis deserves some credit for keeping it close against the Lakers Saturday as they lost by only 1 points. But it was still a third straight loss at home. Playing at Indiana Monday looks to be a mismatch for a team with the third worst scoring differential in the league. Indiana has won two straight and six of eight. The only losses were to Houston and Milwaukee, who are two of the league's better teams. The Pacers seem to have settled in nicely as one of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference, a place where we expected them to be coming into the season. Injuries haven't even really slowed the Pacers down. Victor Oladipo hasn't played at all this year. Malcolm Brogden is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Six Pacers were in double figures in the last game, a 111-106 win over Orlando. Memphis is giving up 117.8 points per game, which is a lot. Only three teams allow more. Indiana is allowing only 98.0 points over its last five games. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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11-24-19 | Pelicans v. Clippers -12 | Top | 109-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS This is a terrible spot for New Orleans. They lost in Utah last night and gave up 128 points despite the Jazz not having Rudy Gobert. Defensive woes are nothing new for the Pelicans. They’ve allowed an average of 119.6 points in all games this season. That’s the second most in the league. Tonight they are up against the Clippers, who have been a dominant home team thus far. LA is 10-1 at Staples Center after beating Houston here on Friday. The Clippers were upset out in New Orleans 10 days ago and so they’ll be looking to exact some revenge tonight. They have gone 6-3-1 ATS their last 10 revenge games. A big spread does not scare us as the Clippers are already winning by more than 10 points/game at home. An opponent that one of the worst defensive teams and played last night should make for easy prey. The Pelicans have been playing short-handed and the Clippers have the highest scoring bench in the entire NBA. New Orleans was down by as much as 20 last night. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA |
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11-22-19 | Rockets +5 v. Clippers | Top | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON Houston saw it's eight-game win streak come to an end Wednesday night in Denver. Notable is that they'd also covered the spread in all eight games. But the Nuggets were able to hold them to a season low 95 points and James Harden to just 27. The Clippers now have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard playing together. The first game with both on the court was a 107-104 win over Boston. The game went to overtime as LA won for the second time this week by three points or less. The Rockets will not be an underdog many times this season. Considering they are the highest scoring team in the league, it's worth taking them when they are. As we just mentioned, the Clippers two wins this week have both been close (total of 5 points). These teams already went against each other once this year. Houston won 102-93 at home. That was nine days ago. The big difference here is tonight's game being in LA. The Clippers are 9-1 at home, but only 1-4 on the road. Still we don't think they should be this big of favorites. The Clippers are only shooting 43.9% from the field here at Staples Center. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-22-19 | Spurs +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN ANTONIO San Antonio is a league worst 2-12-1 ATS. But at some point that record has to improve. With the team struggling, expect them to be an underdog on a pretty regular basis moving forward. That sounds pretty simplistic, but they've only been a dog four times so far. The Spurs are an underdog tonight in Philadelphia. The Sixers also haven't exactly been tearing it up for bettors as they are just 1-5 ATS their previous six games. Two nights ago, they beat the Knicks by only five points. They trailed in that game by as much as 17. Not only has San Antonio not been covering, they haven't been winning either. They bring a 7-game losing streak to the City of Brotherly Love. Most of the losses have been close though. This is the front end of a back to back for both teams. Philly is 1-5 ATS this year against teams that have losing records. San Antonio is more desperate and we should see the underdog role suit them well when it comes to ATS results. Play on SAN ANTONIO AAA |
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