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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-27-23 | Texans v. Saints OVER 37 | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New Orleans at 8 pm et on Sunday. I think the common line of thinking for most bettors ahead of this matchup is that the two teams will go completely 'vanilla' in terms of their offensive gameplanning with a Week 6 regular season matchup on the horizon. I'm not so easily convinced. Join practices between the two teams were cancelled earlier this week. As a result, I do think both teams end up opening it up a little bit offensively here. Keep in mind, neither defense wants to show its hand in terms of particular schemes either. The Saints defense has allowed 41 points through its first two games while the Texans allowed 28 points against a Dolphins team working out the kinks on their offensive line last week. Off a three-point showing in that loss to Miami, you can be sure Houston will be eager to come away with something positive offensively here. Rookie C.J. Stroud is expected to play a couple of series along with the rest of the starters before giving way to Davis Mills. On the flip side, we'll see plenty of Jameis Winston and Jake Haener for the Saints. Both have been effective in pushing the football down the field through the first two preseason affairs. Take the over (8*). |
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08-26-23 | Cardinals v. Vikings OVER 38 | 18-17 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Saturday. Neither of these teams has impressed in the first two weeks of preseason action. For the Cardinals, it's undoubtedly going to be a long season. On a positive note, they have gotten rookie quarterback Clayton Tune plenty of run over the course of the first two games and he'll likely get a lot of work in again in Minnesota on Saturday. I've been impressed by his fearlessness in the pocket and confidence pushing the football down the field. After getting sacked three times in the opener against Denver we saw the Cardinals offensive line perform much better in last week's loss against Kansas City (no sacks allowed). You can be sure Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell would like to see a little more cohesiveness out of his offense on Saturday after the team put up just 13 and 16 points in their first two games. No, preseason results don't really matter, but you at least want to come away with something positive in August before ramping up in September. With 34 and 30 pass attempts in the first two preseason affairs, we've at least seen the Vikings show an interest in pushing their receivers a little bit. Minnesota did make some progress in the first half in last week's loss to Tennessee, marching down the field for three second quarter scoring drives but unfortunately all three of those were field goals. If they can clean things up a little here, I'm confident they can do some damage against a depth-shy Cardinals defense. Take the over (8*). |
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08-25-23 | Lions +5 v. Panthers | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Carolina at 8 pm et on Friday. The Lions were manhandled 25-7 at home against the Jaguars last week, spoiling the gains from the previous week when they rallied for a victory over the Giants. I look for Dan Campbell's squad to bounce back in Friday's preseason finale as they head to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina is expected to give its starters a run in this game and that includes rookie quarterback Bryce Young. His results have been mixed in the early going. Carolina has yet to secure a win this preseason after getting shut out by the Jets in Week 1 and rallying but falling short in a 21-19 loss to the Giants last week. There's just nothing in this matchup that leads me to believe the Panthers are deserving of laying more than a field goal. While we've seen positive flashes from Carolina's second and third-string quarterbacks in Matt Corral and Jake Luton, we've also seen plenty of mistakes. After such a poor showing last week, I expect the Lions defense to take a step forward here, certainly as they look to rise to the occasion against the highly-touted rookie QB Young in the early going. Take Detroit (10*). |
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08-24-23 | Colts v. Eagles OVER 38 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Philadelphia at 8 pm et on Thursday. These two teams made headlines earlier this week as they were engaged in a brawl at the end of their joint practice. Cooler heads obviously prevailed and now we'll see a matchup between the two teams at Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday. Indianapolis is expected to give some of its starters a run in this game according to head coach Shane Steichen. That includes rookie QB Anthony Richardson, who sat last week's contest against Chicago after an inconsistent showing in the opener against Buffalo. While one might assume the Eagles defense would have its way with Richardson and the Colts offense, which is not expected to be one of the league's better offenses this year, we're unlikely to see all of Philadelphia's regular starters on that side of the football, nor will we see much other than a vanilla defensive scheme here. Note that the Eagles have recorded only two sacks through their first two preseason contests. The Colts do boast one of the stronger preseason QB rotations with veteran Gardner Minshew and Sam Ehlinger likely to get snaps on Thursday as well. Speaking of QB's, the Eagles have a good one (by preseason standards) in Tanner McKee. He has impressed through two games, showing a willingness to push the football down the field and a good rapport with this receiving corps. Projected QB2 Marcus Mariota has something to prove after a poor showing in the first half against the Browns last week. Mariota was much sharper in the Eagles preseason opener in Baltimore, leading them on two drives into Baltimore territory that resulted in one made field goal and one missed. On the flip side, the Colts have allowed at least one score in seven of eight preseason quarters to date. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-23 | Ravens -1 v. Commanders | 28-29 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Washington at 8 pm et on Monday. The Commanders are coming off a 17-15 win over the Browns last week and that's worth noting as they haven't won consecutive preseason contests since way back in 2017. The Ravens run of preseason success over the last eight years has been well-documented. I expect their run to last at least one more game, despite what the line movement seems to be indicating here. That line movement has a lot to do with an injury to Ravens backup QB Tyler Huntley. He tweaked his hamstring in last week's game and isn't expected to play on Monday. That still leaves a couple of experienced preseason quarterbacks in Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown to run the Ravens offense. The Commanders named Sam Howell their Week 1 starter at QB last week and while he is likely to play in this game, I'm not sure we'll see a lot of him, noting that the starters got plenty of run during joint practices between these two teams over the course of the week. Backup Jacoby Brissett is locked-in to the QB2 spot while Jake Fromm will likely get mop-up duty once again on Monday. There's a lot to like when it comes to the Ravens preseason approach. Their lone preseason winning streak is no fluke and you can be sure this year's edition doesn't want to be the one to spoil the exceptional run. Take Baltimore (8*). |
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08-20-23 | Saints -3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While this will technically be the Chargers first home game of the preseason, they did play here last week as they delivered a 34-17 win over the Rams. That win had more to do with the Rams lacking depth than anything else (they were also trounced by the Raiders last night). New Orleans is coming off a wild 26-24 victory over Kansas City. I like the Saints quarterback rotation with Jameis Winston and rookie Jake Haener once again expected to handle the bulk of the snaps on Sunday. Haener had a shaky first couple of possessions but did end up settling in and orchestrating a 76-yard touchdown drive later on. The Chargers starters are unlikely see much (if any) playing time on Sunday after these two teams took part in joint practices this week. They didn't show much interest in turning rookie QB Max Duggan loose in the second half last Sunday as he attempted only three passes (that was largely game-script related but still worth noting). I don't anticipate Brandon Staley opening up the Chargers playbook too wide in this contest either as his number one goal this preseason seems to be figuring out who will win the backup running back job. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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08-19-23 | Patriots +3 v. Packers | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Green Bay at 8 pm et on Saturday. While Patriots head coach Bill Bellichick isn't exactly known for his preseason success I do think last week's ugly showing at home against the Texans mattered. Here, the Pats will head back to the field following a couple of days of joint practices with the Packers and by all accounts New England took it to Green Bay in those sessions - particularly on offense. It's worth noting that the Pats check in off a loss last week as they haven't dropped consecutive preseason games (in the same year) since way back in 2017. The Packers are 'fat and happy' off a 36-19 dismantling of the Bengals, on the road no less, last week. That result was more about the Bengals sloppy play than it was the Packers sharpness. Here, we're once again likely to see plenty of Penn State alum Sean Clifford under center for the Packers. The Patriots defense was actually flying around against the Texans last week but didn't end up with much to show for it. I expect them to feast on the Packers depth-shy offense here. Take New England (10*). |
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08-19-23 | Jaguars v. Lions OVER 39 | 25-7 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Detroit at 1 pm et on Saturday. The Jaguars produced 28 points in last week's win in Dallas, fuelled by the performance of QB Nathan Rourke who continues to battle for a spot on the roster. Rourke is expected to get a long look again on Saturday in Detroit after he was sparsely used during join practices with the Lions this week. Jacksonville has a ton of depth at the wide receiver position, a big reason they balled out with Rourke under center last week against the Cowboys. The Lions came from behind to defeat the Giants by a 21-16 score in Week 1. We're unlikely to see their starters again here, but like the Jags, played aggressively on offense last week and should continue to do so here as they look to give their receivers a good look on Saturday. Keep in mind, the Jags did give up 23 points in last Saturday's victory and that was despite the Cowboys shooting themselves in the foot on numerous occasions, not to mention the fact that Jacksonville racked up four sacks in the game (the Lions allowed just one sack against the Giants last week). Take the over (8*). |
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08-18-23 | Panthers v. Giants OVER 38.5 | Top | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and New York at 7 pm et on Friday. Giants head coach Brian Daboll couldn't have been too pleased by his team's performance last week in Detroit, even if it is only the preseason. New York jumped out to a 13-3 halftime lead but could only muster a single field goal the rest of the way in an eventual 21-16 defeat at the hands of the Lions. Keep in mind, in Daboll's first year at the helm in 2022, New York scored 23, 25 and 27 points in preseason action. Here, Giants starters are expected to make a cameo appearance before Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito take over the QB reins the rest of the way. I expect better efficiency from the Giants offense as a whole this week. The Panthers are in a similar situation, looking to bounce back from an ugly performance against the Jets, at home no less, last week. Carolina was shut out in that contest so there's obviously nowhere to go but up this week. Offensive line issues plagued the Panthers in that contest. I look for them to do a better job of getting the ball out quickly. Rookie Bryce Young is expected to get the start again here but we can anticipate Matt Corral to get the bulk of the snaps under center with Jake Luton possibly mixing in as well. I look for the WR duo of Shi Smith and Javon Wims to make some headway against Giants backups on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-23 | Browns v. Eagles -3.5 | 18-18 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Cleveland at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Eagles fell by a 20-19 score, blowing a second half lead last week in Baltimore. I look for them to bounce back here as they host the Browns following a couple days of joint practices. Things got a little testy during those practices, with some Eagles defenders apparently taking 'cheap shots' at Browns QB Deshaun Watson. That was 'much ado about nothing' according to most reports. None of the starters are expected to take the field for the Browns on Thursday, nor do I expect to see many of the Eagles front-line players in prominent roles. I did feel that Philadelphia's loss against the Ravens was a little misleading. The Eagles moved the football with ease in the early stages of that contest - in fact, each of their five first half drives ended up in Ravens territory with three resulted in scores. QB Tanner McKee completed only 10-of-20 pass attempts but flashed at times and likely earned additional playing time this week. While the Eagles didn't play the majority of their regular starters in that game, they did give plenty of veterans a run and I would expect more of the same here. For the Browns, rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has all but earned a roster spot after consecutive impressive performances to open the preseason. He's expected to start and play the entire first half on Thursday. I do think this will be the toughest test he has faced so far as the Eagles defense was humming in last week's contest in Baltimore (they held Baltimore to fewer than 10 yards on three of five first half drives and their backups produced a pick-six in the second half). Apart from DTR, Browns backups at the skill positions on offense haven't shown a ton of upside through two preseason contests. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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08-17-23 | Browns v. Eagles OVER 37.5 | 18-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We've seen this total drop with both teams unlikely to play their starters following a couple of joint practices earlier in the week. I believe it's the wrong move as both offenses showed some upside last week and I expect to see further progression on Thursday. Browns rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been one of the breakout 'stars' of the preseason so far. His play has earned him the start (and likely a half of action) in Thursday's game in Philadelphia. Perhaps the best news for our purposes is that projected backup QB Joshua Dobbs is expected to get the night off after he had an awful showing last week against Washington. The Eagles gave QB Tanner McKee a long leash in last week's game against Baltimore and it paid off as he showed a lot of poise in the pocket, despite completing only 10-of-20 passes. I liked McKee's ability to push the ball down the field and his fearlessness overall - unlike what we saw from fourth-string QB Ian Book who looked like a deer caught in the headlights late in the game. We should see plenty of McKee again on Thursday and I like the potential of the Eagles hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard with plenty of veterans (if not regular starters) being sprinkled into the mix early on. Note that all five of Philadelphia's first half drives in Baltimore last week ended in Ravens territory. Take the over (8*). |
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08-12-23 | Jaguars v. Cowboys OVER 37.5 | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Dallas at 5 pm et on Saturday. This is one of the highest posted totals on the Week 1 NFL Preseason board but I believe it's warranted. The Jaguars didn't have a great preseason a year ago although that mattered little once the regular season started as they went on to have a terrific year that was only brought to an end in the playoffs in Kansas City. I like the make-up of the Jags preseason offense this year and believe they're favored for a reason in this spot. Keep an eye on QB Nathan Rourke - the former Ohio University (and CFL) standout that's making a case for a roster spot. He's likely to see plenty of second half action after Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Beathard get their reps on Saturday. The Jags also have a number of wide receivers fighting for roster positions, including Kevin Austin Jr. and Elijah Cooks who have both flashed during training camp. The Cowboys have a familiar preseason QB rotation with Cooper Rush and Will Grier likely to see the bulk of the action on Saturday. Similar to the Jags, the Cowboys have precious few wide receiver roster spots up for grabs and will be looking to audition the likes of Jalen Moreno-Cropper and Jalen Brooks here. Watch for diminutive RB Deuce Vaughn as well - he has already become a fan favorite during camp and should get a chance to shine against the Jags defensive backups here. Take the over (8*). |
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08-11-23 | Falcons -2 v. Dolphins | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Friday. All indications are that the Dolphins offense and more specifically their offensive line has struggled mightily in camp and during joint practices with the Falcons this week. Now Miami is also dealing with a cluster of injuries at the skill positions on offense. Even though guys like Jaylen Waddle and Jeff Wilson Jr. weren't going to see much playing time, if any at all, in this game anyway, it's likely that this is a contest where the Fins want to effectively shorten proceedings and come out of it as healthy as possible. The needle is pointed up for the Falcons as they look to fine-tune a run-heavy offensive attack after making positive strides last year. Their preseason quarterback rotation will include Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke and Logan Woodside with the latter having gotten a year under his belt in this system in 2022. For Miami we're likely to see plenty of Skylar Thompson and Mike White under center. With a swinging-door offensive line I'm anticipating a rather vanilla offensive gameplan from it in Friday's opener. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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08-10-23 | Texans v. Patriots OVER 36.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New England at 7 pm et on Thursday. It's not difficult to understand why this total has shifted downward over the course of the week. After all, these are expected to be two of the weaker offensive teams in the league this season and the Patriots have already indicated they won't be playing their starters here in Week 1 of the preseason. The Texans on the other hand will dress the majority of their starters but how much playing time they see remains to be seen. They also have a defensive-minded first year head coach in DeMeco Ryans. I still like the chances of a relatively high-scoring affair here. All indications are that the Texans offense has actually been clicking a little bit at camp and their preseason quarterback rotation of rookie C.J. Stroud, third-year former starter Davis Mills and veteran Case Keenum is actually encouraging. Rookie RB Xazavian Valladay has been turning heads during camp and will see plenty of playing time as well. On the flip side, the Pats are expected to give Bailey Zappe plenty of run at QB in their preseason opener. He's obviously comfortable operating the offense after seeing considerable playing time in place of an injured Mac Jones last year. He's been building a good rapport with a trio of wide receivers including impressive rookie Demario Douglas, with all of them getting first-team reps this week. New England also boasts a deep running back room with Pierre Strong Jr., Kevin Harris and J.J. Taylor ready to split up the work on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-03-23 | Jets v. Browns OVER 33.5 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 8 pm et on Thursday. We're working with at typically low total for this year's Hall of Fame Game in Canton on Thursday - no surprise at all given neither team is expected to give their starters any sort of run in this contest. I'm confident both offenses can move the football and ultimately put some points on the board though. The Jets will give Zach Wilson the start at quarterback but we're more likely to see plenty of Tim Boyle and Chris Streveler, with the latter proving to be a big-time preseason producer last year (five touchdowns and one interception). Kellen Mond will start for Cleveland and likely play the better part of the first half. He's got a lot to prove after getting cut by the Vikings prior to last season. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will take over in the second half and I'm confident the former UCLA star can make some plays against what is likely to be Jets second and third-string defensive units. Dual-threat quarterbacks have long enjoyed considerable preseason success and Thompson-Robinson should be next in line for that role for Cleveland. We don't need anything close to resembling a shootout to get 'over' this total. Remember, last year's Hall of Fame Game saw the Jaguars produce only 11 points and that contest still found its way 'over'. Take the over (8*). |
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08-13-22 | Rams v. Chargers UNDER 32 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between the Rams and Chargers at 10 pm et on Saturday. Neither of these teams are expected to play their starters in this game - no real surprise after both head coaches elected to aim for a very 'uneventful' preseason slate a year ago. The Rams saw their three preseason games in 2021 total just 29, 33 and 19 points. As for the Chargers, their three preseason tilts last year reached only 27, 25 and 19 total points. The latter game for each team came against one another as the Chargers prevailed by a 13-6 score. While both teams are obviously set at the quarterback position once the games count for real with Matt Stafford and Justin Herbert, it gets a little uglier down the depth chart. The Rams boast the likes of John Wolford, Bryce Perkins and Devlin 'Duck' Hodges while the Chargers have Chase Daniel (admittedly a preseason household name but not likely to see a lot of action here), Easton Stick and Brandon Peters. There's not a ton of wiggle room in either team's wide receiver depth charts so no real need to put on an air show to evaluate talent at that position. It was a similar story for both squads during last year's preseason schedule. The Chargers in particular will be looking to evaluate their talent at running back in this one with Isaiah Spiller entrenched in a depth chart battle with Josh Kelley and Larry Rountree. I'm anticipating both teams focusing on effectively 'shortening' this game with a heavy dose of their respective ground attacks here. We're dealing with a relatively low total, especially when you considering the high-scoring start the preseason has gotten off to across the board, but I believe the number is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-21 | Browns v. Falcons +6 | 19-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Cleveland at 8 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons have looked awful in their first two preseason games. They'll have a shot at redeeming themselves on Sunday night as they host the 2-0 Browns in front of a national audience. Note that Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski has surprisingly announced that QB Baker Mayfield and a 'select group' of starters will play in this game - an about face after the majority of his starters hadn't played a single snap in the first two preseason games. I'm still not expecting much more than a cameo appearance from Browns starters here. Falcons first-year head coach Arthur Smith has also suggested that some of his starters will play on Sunday night. Again, don't expect much more than a cameo appearance. Atlanta essentially punted last week's game in Miami, attempting just 15 passes in a 37-17 loss. Smith will certainly want his team to go into the season feeling good about themselves. Note that while the Browns are 2-0 they've faced the Jaguars and Giants - two teams that enter Week 3 sporting a combined 0-4 record. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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08-29-21 | Dolphins v. Bengals UNDER 36 | 29-26 | Loss | -108 | 99 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Cincinnati at 4 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Dolphins rout of the Falcons last Saturday while cashing the 'under' in the Bengals narrow loss in Washington. Here, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair as the Fins and Bengals wrap up their respective preseason schedules. Miami opened up its offensive playbook a little more in last week's 37-point outburst against Atlanta but I'm not expecting a similar gameplan as it heads out on the road this week. Head coach Brian Flores probably saw all he needed to from Tua Tagovailoa in that victory as the second-year QB attempted 23 passes and threw for 183 yards and a score in the win. This game more than likely belongs to QBs Jacoby Brissett and Reid Sinnett (along with a heavy dose of the Fins ground game). Cincinnati isn't playing QB Joe Burrow in the preseason, along with a number of other offensive starters. I certainly don't expect a sudden offensive outburst here against a quality defensive opponent. Despite trailing for much of the game, the Bengals threw the football only 27 times for 107 passing yards in last week's loss to the Washington Football Team. I would anticipate another contest where the Cincinnati offense simply 'goes through the motions' here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-28-21 | Chargers v. Seahawks -5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Saturday. I said it last week and I'll say it again here, the Chargers don't care about the preseason. Or should I say they don't care about their preseason win-loss record anyway. Head coach Brandon Staley has made a point to not play his starters throughout the preseason schedule and his number one goal will simply be keeping everyone healthy and ready to go for the start of the regular season here tonight. The Seahawks don't really care about the preseason either - not this year anyway. With that being said, they are coming off a 30-3 drubbing at the hands of the Broncos here at home last week so I do think they'll at the very least want to put their best foot forward and turn in a cleaner performance here as they wrap things up against the Chargers. Seattle backup quarterbacks Sean Mannion and Alex McGough have shown the ability to move the football. They struggled against an aggressive (by preseason standards) Denver pass rush last week but should fare better against the Chargers less aggressive front here tonight. Take Seattle (8*). |
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08-27-21 | Colts v. Lions OVER 31.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Detroit a 7 pm et on Friday. With the Colts being known for their stout defense and the Lions pegged as potentially the worst team in football this season, not to mention coming off consecutive losses to open the preseason, it's not all that surprising that we're dealing with a low total in this 'meaningless' preseason tilt. I think there's reason to expect some offensive fireworks, however. Indianapolis is preparing to face a brutal early season schedule. The Colts won't be able to catch their breath until mid-October when they get a home layup against the Texans. With that in mind, they need to stay healthy, particularly on the defensive side of the football, coming out of this final preseason tilt. For that reason I wouldn't expect to see much of their defensive starters. That opens the door for the Lions to perhaps go into the season with a good feeling as they try to notch their first victory of the preseason. There is some continuity on the Lions side with David Blough and Tim Boyle having taken all of the snaps here in August game action. That should continue to be the case on Friday and I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing. Keep in mind, we did see a spark from the Detroit offense against the Steelers backups last week as they put up 20 points in the fourth quarter. The Colts have thrown the football around more than you might expect in the preseason as Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger continue to battle it out for the Week 1 starting job (and eventual backup to Carson Wentz, who has returned to practice). After attempting 37 passes in Week 1 of the preseason, Eason and Ehlinger combined to attempt 40 passes in Week 2. Head coach Frank Reich will want to see better execution from the offense here this week after they were held to just 12 points and zero touchdowns in last week's narrow 12-10 win over the Vikings. Indy did move the football in that contest, with the two quarterbacks combining to throw for over 200 yards. Take the over (10*). |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 39 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NFLX First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Jacksonville and New Orleans at 8 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off losses in their respective preseason openers. Jags rookie QB Trevor Lawrence admitted he felt some nerves in his debut and it showed as he took a couple of early sacks and showed few flashes of the dominant college quarterback that warranted the number one overall pick in this year's draft. I expect him to settle down and turn in a much better performance on the fast track at the Superdome on Monday night. Lawrence will see the bulk of the early action under center but we should see Gardner Minshew get some first half reps as well. By playing the first half only we avoid getting too deep into the Jags QB rotation which also includes C.J. Beathard and Jake Luton - both threw touchdown passes late in last week's loss to the Browns but I wouldn't count on a repeat effort tonight. The Jags defense didn't look good against the Browns. Cleveland moved the football up and down the field at will, despite resting most of its key offensive starters. Jacksonville was actually fortunate to only give up 13 first half points in its preseason opener as the Browns lacked some execution at the end of drives. The damage could have been much worse. Here, I expect the Saints to make a concerted effort to push the football down the field with Jameis Winston expected to get the start under center. We saw Winston get more comfortable and start taking some deep shots as the game went on against the Ravens last week and I expect to see carry-over from that gameplan here. While this is a relatively high first half total by preseason standards, I don't think it's been set high enough. By playing the first half only we'll look to avoid putting our trust in the hands of Saints possible practice squad QB Trevor Siemian, who is expected to see plenty of second half action. Take the first half over (10*). |
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08-22-21 | 49ers -5 v. Chargers | 15-10 | Push | 0 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. The Niners did a lot of good things but ultimately fell by a 19-16 score against Kansas City in their preseason opener. Meanwhile, the Chargers defeated the Rams despite scoring just 13 points last week. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley, along with the Chargers players, have made it clear that they don't care about the preseason (wins and losses anyway). Their starters will once again be on the sidelines for this one. Meanwhile, the 49ers should again give Jimmy Garropolo and Trey Lance extended looks in this one. All reports pointed to the fact that the Niners two quarterbacks looked sharp in 7-on-7 drills during joint practices with the Chargers this week and I expect to see some carry-over here. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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08-22-21 | 49ers v. Chargers OVER 34 | 15-10 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams were involved in fairly low-scoring games last week. While I'm not anticipating a shootout here, I do think we'll see enough offense to get 'over' the very reasonable total. All indications are that Niners quarterbacks Jimmy Garropolo and Trey Lance were impressive during 7-on-7 drills against the Chargers at their joint practices this week. With Los Angeles resting its starters on both sides of the football again here, we can expect to see progression from the San Francisco offense in this one. Meanwhile, the Chargers are giving QB Easton Stick the start in this one as he has an outside chance at leap-frogging veteran QB Chase Daniel for the backup job. Expect to see Los Angeles attempt more passes than we're accustomed to seeing in the preseason as head coach Brandon Staley evaluates his quarterbacks. Take the over (9*). |
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08-21-21 | Titans v. Bucs -1 | 34-3 | Loss | -108 | 59 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Tennessee at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. The Bucs laid an egg in their preseason opener. After jumping ahead with a first quarter touchdown, their offense failed to reach the end zone again in a 19-14 loss against the Bengals, at home no less, last Saturday. Here, I look for a strong bounce-back performance from Bruce Arians' squad. While preseason results mean very little in the grand scheme of things (at least from a win-loss perspective), after a performance where they allowed four sacks and threw two interceptions, I think Arians will want to see a much cleaner performance from his team this week. The Titans on the other hand, rolled to a blowout win in Atlanta last Friday night. Mike Vrabel has still only managed a 3-6 preseason record in 2+ years guiding Tennessee. It's not as if the Titans backup QB duo of Logan Woodside and Matt Barkley was all that impressive in last week's win, it was more of a case of Atlanta not offering much resistance whatsoever. I expect a different story to unfold here. We go from the Bucs laying nearly a touchdown against the Bengals last week to now being virtually a pk'em against the Titans. I simply feel it's an overreaction to last week's 'meaningless' Week 1 preseason results. Take Tampa Bay (9*). |
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08-21-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins OVER 36.5 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 58 h 58 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Miami at 7 pm et on Saturday. We're being afforded a relatively low total to work with here thanks to 'meaningless' Week 1 preseason results. The Falcons were absolutely crushed by the Titans by a 23-3 score, at home no less. It certainly wasn't a great look for new head coach Arthur Smith - the former Titans offensive coordinator. Let's not get too excited by that ugly performance though. We didn't see the Falcons offensive starters in that game. It remains to be seen whether the starters suit up for this one but I would expect to see at least some of the Falcons stars to at the very least make a cameo appearance in this one. Regardless, I think Atlanta has enough depth on offense to put up a much better performance than we saw last week. Projected third-string QB Feleipe Franks did do a good job of moving the football on the ground, racking up 76 rushing yards against Tennessee. Here, I think we'll see Smith dial up the offense a little with a more pass-heavy attack as the Falcons use this as a measuring-stick game against a good Dolphins defense. Miami's offense got off to a fine start against the Bears last Saturday but fizzled in the second half in a 17-13 loss. That certainly wasn't an ideal spot to unleash the offense in a tough matchup on the road against a quality Bears defense. It's a different story here as Miami prepares to face a middle of the road Falcons defense. Head coach Brian Flores guided his team to a 3-1 record in his preseason debut as a head coach in 2019. That included a 34-27 victory over these same Falcons in their preseason home opener. Flores knows what he has on defense. What he needs to find out here is what he has offensively, and like Smith, I look for him to dial up a more aggressive offensive gameplan in an effort to figure out where his team stands, especially with QB Tua Tagovailoa taking over the reins as the starter this year. With this total sitting where it is, we don't need an offensive shootout to cash this ticket. That warrants us stepping up to our top rating. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-21 | Bengals v. Washington Football Team UNDER 35 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Washington at 8 pm et on Friday. Both of these defenses seem to be considerably ahead of the offenses at this point of the preseason and I think we're dealing with a relatively low total for good reason. QB Joe Burrow didn't play in the Bengals preseason opener against the Bucs and he won't suit up this week either. That will once again leave this game in the hands of backup QB duo Brandon Allen and Kyle Shurmur. Neither lit it up in last week's win in Tampa, combining to complete just 19-of-29 passes for 185 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. With injuries on the offensive line, the Bengals will likely keep the offensive gameplan pretty simple in this one and it's not as if they have any true home run threats in the backfield as you go down the depth chart. The Bengals looked as good as any team defensively in their Week 1 victory, limiting Bucs quarterbacks to 17-of-39 passing for 130 yards while giving up just 29 rushing yards. It might be tough to duplicate that performance here, but I do expect another good effort from the Cincinnati 'D'. Washington looked good on defense against New England last Thursday, not allowing the Pats to reach the end zone until nearly four minutes into the fourth quarter. The Football Team suffered another late defensive breakdown on a 91-yard touchdown run inside the game's final two minutes but that was when they were deep into the depth chart. There's a bit of a QB battle brewing for the backup job behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and I think that could lead to more snaps for Taylor Heinecke and Kyle Allen (who recently returned from injury). Steven Montez was actually the most impressive of the bunch in last week's loss but it's unlikely he'll see as much playing time here. Regardless, with the starters not expected to get stretched out too much in Week 2, I'm not anticipating a big breakout performance from the Washington offense. Take the under (9*). |
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08-20-21 | Chiefs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
NFLX TV Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Arizona at 8 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the short number with the Chiefs as they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals in front of a national ESPN audience on Friday. Both of these teams were victorious by identical 19-16 scores last week as the Chiefs defeated the Niners in San Francisco and the Cardinals took down the Cowboys here at home. It's worth noting that Arizona's victory came thanks to a pair of Matt Prater field goals inside the game's final two minutes (foiling our play on the Cowboys plus the points). Kyler Murray is expected to see his first action of the preseason for the Cardinals. He has already stated that he 'hates the preseason' and puts virtually no stock in what happens on the field. With WRs DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green and RB James Conner on and off the field due to various ailments, he may not have his full compliment of weapons during what should be a brief appearance in the first half on Friday. Also note that depth WR Andy Isabella will miss this game due to Covid protocols. Behind Murray in the QB rotation is the capable but underwhelming duo of Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler. Note that the Cards went 1-3 in the preseason in their first year under head coach Kliff Kingsbury back in 2019. So they're in uncharted territory in a sense as they look for their second consecutive preseason win here. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has said that he will play his starters for most, if not all of the first half on Friday. While it remains to be seen whether that means we'll see a full half from QB Pat Mahomes (probably not), I still think we're going to see Kansas City put forth a fairly serious effort (by preseason standards) as they look to go 2-0 on the road. The Chiefs offense will be facing a Cardinals defense that won't have the services of J.J. Watt or Chandler Jones. Kansas City doesn't have a top-flight QB rotation by any means but I do like the veteran presence of Chad Henne and Shane Buechele did show he can move the ball down the field with his arm and his legs in last week's victory (8-of-11 passing and three runs for 13 yards). I simply feel we'll see a little better execution from the Chiefs for four quarters than we will from the Cardinals as Kansas City is a road favorite for a reason. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +1.5 | 35-0 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New England at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll make the case that the wrong team is being favored in this NFLX Week 2 kickoff matchup between the Patriots and Eagles. Yes, New England is 1-0 while Philadelphia checks in 0-1. You can be sure the Eagles are putting some emphasis on winning this game, which is their final home preseason game before wrapping up their exhibition schedule with a trip to New York to face the Jets next Friday. They actually got off to a terrific start in their opener against the Steelers last week jumping ahead 13-0 before the Steelers left them in the dust in the second half. That was a Pittsburgh squad that had a leg up having already played a preseason game. Here, the Eagles will have a more level playing field against New England with both teams having played just once. Mac Jones was the story for the Patriots last week as he impressed in a 22-13 win over the Washington Football Team. He could very well impress again this week but he's going to once again have to concede some playing time to projected starter Cam Newton, who hasn't looked particularly sharp this summer. RB Rhamondre Stevenson was also a big story for the Pats last week, putting the game away with a late 91-yard touchdown run. Keep in mind, outside of that big run he was held to just 4.0 yards per rush. As I mentioned, the Eagles did do a lot of good things in head coach Nick Sirianni's debut last week. We can expect QB Jalen Hurts to see more extensive playing time on Thursday night as Sirianni looks to give him some confidence running the offense after he made only a cameo appearance last week. Of course, Philadelphia boasts one of the stronger preseason quarterback rotations you'll find with Hurts followed by two experienced QB's in Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens. I like their depth at all of the skill positions on offense with impressive rookies WR Quez Watkins and RB Kenneth Gainwell likely to see plenty of action on Thursday as well. It's worth noting that while New England did manage to win by nine points last week, Washington did find some success passing the football, racking up 245 yards through the air - nearly doubling the Patriots production in that category. Washington also held a 22-16 first down edge. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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08-15-21 | Panthers v. Colts OVER 34 | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers have a bit of a unique position battle going on at quarterback with P.J. Walker and Will Grier fighting for the backup job to Sam Darnold. Head coach Matt Rhule has indicated he may only keep two quarterbacks on the roster which means one of Walker or Grier could be left without a job at the end of the preseason. Here, I look for Carolina to go with a more pass-heavy attack than we're accustomed to seeing in the preseason as Rhule looks to evaluate his quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Colts have a QB battle of their own with Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger fighting for the starting job - at least until Carson Wentz returns from injury. All indications are that both have impressed at training camp. We should see both get extended playing time in this one as head coach Frank Reich looks for some clarity as to who deserves the starting job in Week 1. This has certainly been a low-scoring preseason so far and that helps keep this total at a very reasonable number on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 37 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Oakland at 9 pm et on Saturday. It's easy to forget that both of these teams have relatively high-scoring preseason track records after last year's exhibition schedule was scrapped entirely. That's not a real surprise as neither defense is great to begin with but get into the second and third levels in the depth chart and there are some real holes. There's a reason that this is one of the highest posted totals on the Week 1 NFLX board. Both sides do boast significant depth at the skill positions on offense. Perhaps one of the lone exceptions is the wide receiver position for Seattle. With that being said, that should lead to the Seahawks airing it out a little more than you might expect in this one as they evaluate the wide receivers that are battling for the number three spot behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. I like the QB rotations in this one and on the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, I'm anticipating a fairly high-scoring contest between these NFC-AFC West Division counterparts on Saturday night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Dolphins v. Bears -3.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 126 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Saturday. The Bears are one of the biggest favorites on the NFL preseason Week 1 board and they're favored for a reason in my opinion. Chicago is in desperate need of a spark right out of the gate following another disappointing campaign. The Bears boast arguably the best QB rotation in the preseason with veterans Andy Dalton and Nick Foles book-ending potential standout rookie Justin Fields. Any or all of the three are capable of guiding the offense on touchdown drives against the Dolphins on Saturday. Meanwhile, Miami has already been dealing with a number of key injuries at training camp and I see it as a team that is simply looking to come out of this game unscathed injury-wise, with perhaps a few positive moments from QB Tua Tagovailoa to take away as well. The Dolphins may give veteran backup QB Jacoby Brissett the bulk of the snaps in this one but he's learning a new offense with unfamiliar faces after coming over from the Colts. The Dolphins are reportedly active in the trade market right now as they look for help on the offensive line. That's obviously not a good sign - again, they'll simply be looking to turn in a clean performance and avoid any more injuries and certainly won't look to put their quarterbacks under too much duress in this one. Expect a rather 'safe' offensive gameplan from the 'Fins in this one. |
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08-13-21 | Cowboys +1.5 v. Cardinals | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Arizona at 10 pm et on Friday. The Cowboys failed to reach the end zone in their preseason opener against the Steelers last week and that ugly loss in front of a national audience is a big reason why they're catching points against NFC West sleeper squad Arizona on Friday night. I do expect to see progression from Dallas in this one. The Cowboys offense struggled last week but that was expected as we rarely see sharp performances in the Hall of Fame Game and they were up against a Steelers defense that erased big plays by loading up the secondary as they looked to evaluate corners in that contest. The Cardinals obviously have plenty of starpower but their starters will likely see just a cameo appearance in this one. After Kyler Murray, we're likely to see journeyman QB Colt McCoy and former CFL standout Chris Streveler see the bulk of the snaps with the rest of the backups (and beyond) in this one. Neither instill a great deal of confidence against a Cowboys defense that has already seen game action, and also benefited from the opportunity to take part in joint practices with the Rams this past weekend. Take Dallas (10*). |
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08-13-21 | Titans v. Falcons | 23-3 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Tennessee at 7 pm et on Friday. Everyone is high on the Titans entering the 2021 season and for good reason. They added Julio Jones to an already dynamic offense and should be poised to go on another playoff run. That of course means little in the preseason, however. We're only likely to see cameo appearances from the Titans starters here. Note that Tennessee has only managed to win two of eight preseason games under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel going back to 2018. The Falcons have a new head coach in Arthur Smith and the former Titans offensive coordinator could certainly put a little extra stock in beating his former team here. I like the Falcons QB rotation a little more than that of the Titans with Feleipe Franks likely to see the bulk of the action in the second half. I like Franks mobility here as he should be able to extend plays against the Titans defensive backups. Keep in mind, Tennessee doesn't have an elite defense to begin with so when you get into the second and third level on the depth chart, there's reason for optimism when it comes to the Falcons offense. Take Atlanta (5*). |
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08-12-21 | Washington Football Team -2 v. Patriots | Top | 13-22 | Loss | -108 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington minus the points over New England at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. If a road team is favored in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, there's usually a valid reason for it. I believe that statement holds true in this matchup as the Washington Football Team travels to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots. Washington head coach Ron Rivera sounds like he's taking the preseason seriously right out of the gate this season, indicating his starters are likely to see extended playing time on Thursday night. Whether or not that will actually be the case remains to be seen but regardless, I like the mentality he's building in his team that these preseason games are important. Here's a telling quote from Rivera from the weekend, “I think we have to grow and mature as a football team. I don’t think we can show up and automatically assume we’re gonna pick up where we left off last year.'' Washington boasts a very capable QB rotation with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinecke, Kyle Allen and Colorado U standout Steven Montez. The Patriots have been dealing with a number of injuries over the past week and will simply look to come out of this preseason opener healthy. Yes, rookie QB Mac Jones pushing veteran Cam Newton is a popular storyline at Patriots camp but the reality is Newton will more than likely begin the season as the starter, even though he has reportedly struggled in the early stages of training camp. He'll likely see only a cameo appearance on Thursday while Jones is still learning the offense and has spent more of his time working with the 'ones' at camp, and might struggle should he be on the field with backups on Thursday. Behind Newton and Jones will be veteran Brian Hoyer and Jake Dolegala. That duo inspires little confidence in the Pats ability to find much second half offensive success in this one. Take Washington (10*). |
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08-25-19 | Steelers v. Titans -3 | 18-6 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8 pm et on Sunday. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel certainly doesn’t boast a positive preseason track record at 1-5 ATS but we’re obviously dealing with a very small sample size. Last week there were plenty of positives for Vrabel to take away, even in a 22-17 loss to the Patriots. Keep in mind, the Pats have put a strong emphasis on preparing the right way and winning on the road this August after going 3-5 away from home last regular season. I’m not really going to fault the Titans for that hard-fought loss that really could have gone either way last week. The Steelers check in a perfect 2-0 this August but under the guidance of Mike Tomlin, they’re still a losing preseason bet long-term having gone 25-26-1 ATS. We’re not likely going to see the traditional ‘Week 3 dress rehearsal’ gameplan from the Steelers as they’ve generally treated Ben Roethlisberger with kit gloves in the month of August. I simply feel this one means a little more to the Titans at home, and they’re being favored for a reason. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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08-25-19 | Steelers v. Titans OVER 40 | Top | 18-6 | Loss | -105 | 108 h 47 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday Night Football Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Tennessee at 8 pm et on Sunday. We came up just short with our ‘over’ play in the Titans loss to the Patriots last Saturday (we won with New England in that game) but I feel the same play is warranted as they stay home to host the Steelers this week. The Titans offense looked terrific early in that game against New England, scoring a pair of first half touchdowns. That was encouraging when you consider the Patriots have put a strong emphasis on taking care of business on the road this August after going 3-5 away from home last regular season. I’m confident the Titans offense can be efficient and effective once again here. The Steelers haven’t exactly unleashed their offense in the preseason with QB Ben Roethlisberger and others having yet to see a single snap. I do expect them to open things up a little more here, however, as they try to gain some rhythm before all of the regular starters likely sit in their preseason finale next week. It’s worth noting that QB Mason Rudolph has done a nice job as he battles for the backup job, completing 15-of-23 passes for just shy of 170 yards and two touchdowns through two games. Even Devlin Hodges has gotten in on the action, throwing touchdown passes in each of the Steelers first two games. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Cardinals v. Vikings OVER 42 | 9-20 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Cardinals defense is already injury-ravaged and after watching the Raiders mediocre offense absolutely shred them last week, I don’t have much faith in Arizona stepping up with a big defensive effort against what has been one of the best offenses in the league in the preseason in Minnesota on Saturday afternoon. We’ve already won with the ‘over’ in each of the Vikings first two games this August. In my analysis of those two plays I noted that Minnesota boasts a terrific preseason QB rotation. I saw nothing to stray from that notion last Sunday night as both Kyle Sloter and Sean Mannion threw for touchdowns and combined to complete 22-of-27 passes for over 200 yards. Kirk Cousins will likely see extended action this week, but that’s by no means a bad thing against a porous Cardinals defense. From an offensive standpoint, Arizona needs to be sharper this week as rookie QB Kyler Murray gets what will likely be his last taste of game action before the regular season kicks off in September. The offense couldn’t get anything going until late in the game against Oakland last week but things can only improve this week in Minnesota. Penalties were a big factor in the Cards awful start against Oakland, something they can clean up in advance of Saturday’s contest. Minnesota is an excellent defensive team but not necessarily in the preseason as it has allowed 44 points through two games, both victories. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Cardinals v. Vikings -7 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 77 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Saturday. While I do expect the Cardinals offense and rookie QB Kyler Murray in particular to perform better than they did in last week’s loss to the Raiders, I’m not convinced their defense can do anything to slow down the Vikings on Saturday afternoon in Minnesota. The Vikings have a tremendous preseason track record under head coach Mike Zimmer, having gone a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS this August and 16-7 ATS since he took over the job. As I’ve mentioned in my analysis of ‘over’ plays on the Vikings first two preseason affairs, they have a sneaky-good preseason QB rotation with Kyle Sloter and Sean Mannion following Kirk Cousins. Both Sloter and Mannion have excelled through two games and in Sloter’s case he’s been a bonafide preseason stud going back to last year as well. I don’t believe there’s any reason to expect a letdown from the Vikings here as they stay home for a second straight game before closing things out in Buffalo next week. This is a lofty pointspread by preseason standards, but it’s warranted in my opinion. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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08-23-19 | Browns v. Bucs OVER 42.5 | 12-13 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cleveland and Tampa Bay at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Buccaneers 16-14 win over the Dolphins last Friday night but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they host Cleveland this week. As is often the case, we should see extended action from both teams’ regular offensive starters in this the traditional ‘Week 3 dress rehearsal’ game. Even without QB Baker Mayfield playing a single snap last week, the Browns still managed to score three offensive touchdowns against the Colts. They’ll be facing the sieve-like Buccaneers defense this week and I expect continued progress from the Cleveland offense. We saw only a cameo appearance from Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston and the rest of the starting offense last week. Keep in mind, Winston did get his feet wet orchestrating a touchdown drive in Pittsburgh the week previous. Through two games, the Buccaneers offense has produced five touchdowns. The Browns are expected to have one of the league’s strongest defenses this season, but we’re not going to see them lay all their cards on the table in the preseason. They’ve allowed only 28 points through two games, but I anticipate some regression here following their perfect 2-0 start and playing on the road for the second straight week. Take the over (10*). |
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08-22-19 | Packers -3 v. Raiders | 21-22 | Loss | -107 | 36 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Oakland at 8 pm et on Thursday. Note that this game will be played north of the border in Winnipeg, Manitoba. If anything that should give the Packers a bit of a home field advantage in terms of fan support (even if this game isn’t well-attended as has been speculated). Green Bay’s gameplan got shifted somewhat last-minute with QB Aaron Rodgers sitting due to a minor injury against the Ravens last week. The Packers ultimately lost that game so come into this one sporting an even 1-1 mark. Rodgers isn’t likely to see a great deal of action in this game either but that’s ok for our purposes as QB Tim Boyle has plenty of preseason upside and has thrown for three touchdowns and 147 yards on just 15 completions through two games. The Raiders took advantage of a depleted Cardinals defense last week to improve to a perfect 2-0 in the preseason. I expect Oakland to face a tougher challenge here, noting that its other victory came over a Rams squad that has looked generally disinterested in winning in the month of August this year. The Raiders have got terrific quarterback play from veteran Mike Glennon in particular so far, but I see his run ending here (Derek Carr and the rest of the Raiders regular starters should see extended action). Take Green Bay (10*). |
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08-22-19 | Panthers +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New England at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We’ve won with the Patriots in each of the last two weeks, taking full advantage of the fact that they’ve placed a strong emphasis on preparing the right way and winning on the road in this year’s preseason after going a disappointing 3-5 on the road last regular season. Now New England returns home as a favorite against the Panthers, but I simply don’t believe that Bill Bellichick is going to put a lot of stock in whether it picks up a win or suffers its first loss of the exhibition campaign – even if it is the traditional ‘Week 3 dress rehearsal’ game. The Panthers are coming off an ugly 27-14 home loss to the Bills last week, which came on the heels of a 23-13 win in Chicago to open the preseason. We didn’t see many of the Panthers regular starters in last week’s contest but that should change this week. Note that even after last week’s loss, the Panthers have posted a respectable 18-15-1 ATS record in the preseason under head coach Ron Rivera. Take Carolina (10*). |
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08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos OVER 41.5 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -109 | 154 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Monday Night Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between San Francisco and Denver at 8 pm et on Monday. Both the 49ers and Vikings are coming off relatively low-scoring affairs in their respective preseason openers last week. I expect a different story to unfold as they square off in Denver on Monday night, however. The Broncos didn’t give up much in the first half of their loss to the Seahawks, but they were facing Geno Smith. Here, they’ll face a better group of quarterbacks, noting the 49ers essentially split the game between Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard last week (we won with the Niners in that 17-9 victory over Dallas). WR Jalen Hurd was an early preseason breakout candidate, scoring a pair of touchdowns in the win over Dallas. Denver’s offense has yet to really get going through two preseason games, but we did see some more positive signs last week in Seattle as rookie QB Drew Lock settled in to throw for 180 yards and a touchdown on 28 pass attempts. Joe Flacco made a cameo appearance and completed 3-of-4 passes for 19 yards. The 49ers defense really wasn’t tested in last week’s game against Dallas, which is known for its conservative offensive play in the preseason under Jason Garrett. Look for Denver to expose the San Francisco defense a little bit here. Take the over (10*). |
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08-18-19 | Seahawks v. Vikings OVER 41.5 | 19-25 | Win | 100 | 131 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Vikings 34-25 win in New Orleans last week and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Seattle prevailed by a 22-14 score over Denver in its preseason opener, thanks in large part to an impressive performance from QB Paxton Lynch against his former team. Lynch is a quarterback that appears to have a big chip on his shoulder, and should find continued success against the back-end of the Vikings defense this week. On the flip side, in last week’s writeup I noted that the Vikings have a sneaky-good preseason QB rotation, with Kyle Sloter a true underrated performer after turning in a terrific exhibition slate a year ago. Sloter didn’t disappoint last week, throwing for 62 yards and a touchdown on just seven pass attempts. Regardless how much we see from the starters in this game, I’m confident we’ll ultimately see the game turn into a relatively high-scoring affair in perfect conditions in Minnesota on Sunday night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-19 | Lions v. Texans -4 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 107 h 31 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Detroit at 8 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the favored Texans as they try to bounce back from last week’s ‘not as close as it looked’ 28-26 loss in Green Bay. First of all, the Lions are now 1-4 ATS in the preseason since Matt Patricia took over last year. They were a complete no-show in last week’s blowout loss to the Patriots. I don’t see this as an ideal bounce-back spot against an equally hungry Texans squad coming off a loss. Detroit will likely give plenty of time to Tom Savage and David Fales under center again this week, which doesn’t bode well for its offense after they combined to complete 7-of-17 passes for only 102 yards and an interception last week. The Texans have a proven preseason performer at quarterback in Joe Webb. He threw for 286 yards and a touchdown to go along with a pair of interceptions and also ran for 47 yards on six carries last week. Credit Houston for not folding the tent after falling behind 28-10 entering the fourth quarter last week, putting up 16 unanswered points in the game’s final 14 minutes. Note that the Texans are 12-7-1 ATS under Bill O’Brien in the preseason. Take Houston (10*). |
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08-17-19 | Patriots v. Titans OVER 40 | 22-17 | Loss | -100 | 106 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between New England and Tennessee at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Patriots last week, noting that they were putting an emphasis on winning road games in the preseason this year after struggling to a 3-5 record away from home during the regular season last year. They put up a whopping 31 points in their win over the Lions. It's hard to say whether their defensive performance had more to do with their own play, or the awful play of the Lions. The Titans have a solid preseason QB rotation with Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill and Logan Woodside. Both Tannehill and Woodside threw for at least 130 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 27-10 win over Philadelphia. While Tennessee is certainly a run-first team, I'm not sure we're going to see that here in the preseason. We did see some defensive breakdowns from Tennessee in last week’s win, most notably on a 75-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter. The Eagles went rather vanilla offensively in that game. I expect New England to open things up a little more, as noted earlier, Bill Bellichick is putting an emphasis on winning these road games in the preseason. Note that the Pats threw the football 38 times and racked up well over 300 passing yards and three touchdowns in a game that was never in doubt in Detroit last week. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-19 | Patriots -3 v. Titans | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 105 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Tennessee at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points again with the Patriots this week as they once again put an emphasis on winning on the road after going 3-5 away from home during the regular season last year. Last week's blowout win over the Lions was never in doubt and while this one isn't likely to be as lopsided, I still believe we'll see New England win and cover. Even without Tom Brady on the field, the Pats suddenly have a solid QB rotation by preseason standards with veteran Brian Hoyer and rookie Jarrett Stidham. Stidham in particular stood out last week, throw for 179 yards on 14 pass completions while also adding a touchdown. Even with the Titans win in Philadelphia last week, they're still just 1-4 ATS in the preseason under the guidance of former Patriot Mike Vrabel. Bill Bellichick's excellent preseason track record with the Pats is well-known. Look for him to school another former subject here. Take New England (10*). |
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08-16-19 | Dolphins v. Bucs OVER 43.5 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -121 | 82 h 2 m | Show |
NFLX Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Miami and Tampa Bay at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I’m anticipating a preseason shootout as the Dolphins and Buccaneers renew their exhibition rivalry on Friday night. The Dolphins offense found the end zone four times in last week’s win over the Falcons. I really like the Miami quarterback rotation as far as preseason standards go with Josh Rosen, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jake Rudock. Rosen threw for just shy of 200 yards on just 13 completions last week but didn’t find the end zone so he’ll certainly be motivated to get a little more in-sync with his receiving corps here. I like the fact that Rudock did throw a touchdown in the fourth quarter in last week’s contest. The Miami defense wasn’t all that impressive, allowing Atlanta to score offensive touchdowns in three of four quarters and execute three consecutive scoring drives in a four-minute stretch late in the first half. The Bucs are expected to take a big leap forward offensively under the guidance of head coach Bruce Arians this season. They certainly looked good in last week’s narrow 30-28 loss in Pittsburgh. It took just one drive for Jameis Winston and Chris Godwin to hook up for a touchdown score. QB Ryan Griffin is doing everything he can to pass Blaine Gabbert in the depth chart, throwing for 330 yards and a score in last week’s loss. Expect to see a little more out of Winston and the Bucs offensive starters in this one, which certainly bodes well for our ‘over’ play. Take the over (10*). |
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08-15-19 | Packers v. Ravens UNDER 38.5 | 13-26 | Loss | -108 | 58 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Green Bay and Baltimore at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both the Packers and Ravens are coming off victories last week although the nature of those wins were much different. Green Bay held on for a 28-26 win over Houston while Baltimore steamrolled Jacksonville by a 29-0 score. While the Packers did score 28 points in that victory, they actually didn’t score an offensive touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half. Their quarterbacks combined to throw for just 142 yards on 11-of-21 passing but managed to find the end zone three times through the air. Expect a bit of a touchdown-correction against a solid, deep Ravens defense this week. The Baltimore offense found the end zone only once in its blowout win last week, that coming on a late first quarter touchdown pass from Lamar Jackson to Willie Snead. We can certainly give credit to the Ravens defense for limiting the Jaguars to 65 passing yards and not allowing a single Jacksonville running back to top 22 yards on the ground. We’re working with a mid-range total here as I’m not sure the oddsmakers really know how to handle this one properly. I’m anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. Take the under (10*). |
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08-10-19 | Cowboys v. 49ers -4.5 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Saturday. The 49ers are laying more than the standard field goal here in their home preseason opener on Saturday night, largely due to the fact that two experienced quarterbacks in Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard are expected to split time and play the majority of the game. I believe the line is warranted and look for the Niners to ultimately pull away for the win and cover. Keep in mind, last year the Niners needed a 14-point fourth quarter rally to defeat the Cowboys by a 24-21 score in this same matchup in Week 1 of the preseason. Beathard and Mullens each threw an interception in that game. The fact is, the Cowboys offense didn't do much, and I don't expect much different of a story to play out here. The difference is the 49ers QB duo are more experienced and should be able to take care of the football. While I'm not necessarily on board with the thinking that the Niners will be much improved this season (I have a lot of questions about their defense), I do expect them to prevail here. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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08-10-19 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 37 | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 8 pm et on Saturday. A lot of bettors will be expecting fireworks between these two teams as the high-octane Chiefs offense takes the field for the first time against the Bengals, who have a renewed sense of optimism on offense under the guidance of head coach Zac Taylor. Don't count on that type of shootout, however, as Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has already indicated his team will keep things simple on offense and give the young guys plenty of playing time with the starters likely seeing less than a quarter of action. The Bengals are ushering in a new offensive scheme essentially and there will be some growing pains. Don't count on Taylor unleashing his full playbook against a conference opponent on Saturday night in Kansas City. This total has been posted relatively low for a reason. Take the under (10*). |
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08-09-19 | Vikings v. Saints OVER 37 | 34-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New Orleans at 8 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a pretty standard total in advance of this Friday night preseason tilt at the Superdome in New Orleans. I like the QB rotations for both of these teams, with Kyle Sloter in particular anything but a household name, but a guy that performed well last August, throwing four touchdowns and posting a 114.1 QB rating while attempting at least 11 passes in all four preseason games. The Saints have plenty of experience in their QB rotation as well and I don't expect them to back down from the challenge against a Vikings squad that has an excellent track record in the preseason under head coach Mike Zimmer. Expect a fairly entertaining game, noting the Vikes opened last year's preseason with a 42-28 win in Denver. Take the over (10*). |
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08-08-19 | Patriots -1 v. Lions | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Detroit at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. All indications are that the Patriots are putting an emphasis on winning this week's preseason opener in Detroit, or as much of an emphasis as you can expect for an exhibition game anyway. After going 3-5 away from home last season, New England is focused on preparing the right way and delivering a complete performance against the Lions. I don't expect Bill Bellichick to make anything easy on his former defensive coordinator - now Lions head coach Matt Patricia. There's never a whole lot to go on this early in the preseason, but here I do expect to see the Pats put their best foot forward. Take New England (10*). |
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08-25-18 | Saints +2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 36-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NFLX Preseason Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Saints couldn't follow up on their preseason-opening 24-20 road win over the Jaguars, falling by a 20-15 score at home against the Cardinals last week. I do expect to see Sean Payton's squad bounce back this Saturday, however, as they hit the road to face the Chargers. Los Angeles dropped its opener in Arizona but responded with a 24-14 win over the Seahawks last week. Keep in mind, Drew Brees has yet to play for the Saints this preseason, but he is expected to be on the field on Saturday night. I do expect to see Brees make more than just a cameo appearance here. Note that the Saints have gone a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS when on the road for their second to last preseason game - the so-called 'dress rehearsal' game - since 2004. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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08-25-18 | Chiefs +2.5 v. Bears | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have high hopes entering the 2018 season and both have looked impressive, at least at times, during preseason action. I simply feel that the Chiefs are a little further along in their progression at this point and I’m confident they’ll come away with their second consecutive victory on Saturday afternoon in Chicago. We saw the best of Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes in last week’s game in Atlanta as he threw for 138 yards and a score (to go along with an interception) and also ran the ball for a couple of nice gains. Defensively, the Chiefs have done a pretty nice job through their first two games and will face a Bears offense that is still very much a work in progress. Chicago did pick up its first win of the preseason in Denver last Saturday night as it rallied late for a 24-23 victory. Expect a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon at Soldier Field in what should be a fairly entertaining affair by NFL Preseason standards. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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08-24-18 | Broncos +3 v. Redskins | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection will be on Denver plus the points over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Friday. All eyes will be on Redskins newly-signed RB Adrian Peterson on Friday night but I expect him to have little impact on the outcome of this game. The Broncos have yet to taste victory here in the preseason after giving up a couple of late touchdowns in a 24-23 home loss to the Bears last week. I do feel they’ll put some relevance in grabbing a win here in Landover, even if it is still just preseason football. Meanwhile, the Redskins picked up their first victory in August last week against the Jets. It was a fairly ugly contest with both offenses struggling to punch the football into the end zone. There are still plenty of kinks to be worked out on offense for QB Alex Smith and the Redskins. I look for the Broncos to prove to be the sharper squad on Friday night. Take Denver (10*). |
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08-24-18 | Patriots v. Panthers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 14-25 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
NFL Preseason Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Carolina at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The 'over' has gone a combined 4-0 in games involving these two teams in the preseason so far but I expect to see a different story unfold on Friday night in Carolina. The Panthers have put up 28 and 27 points in notching back-to-back wins to open their preseason slate. I don't believe we'll see them eclipse or even approach those numbers on Friday night, however. Keep in mind, the Patriots will take this matchup seriously, knowing that they'll face another mobile quarterback in DeShaun Watson of the Texans in Week 1 of the regular season. They'll look to sharpen up against Cam Newton in this contest, and I expect them to perform well defensively. On the flip side, the Panthers will be up for this showdown with Tom Brady and the Patriots - even in the preseason, opponents generally have no trouble getting up for matchups with New England. The Pats are coming off back-to-back comfortable victories but I believe things will get a little tougher here. Last year, we saw a high-scoring affair in the Patriots third preseason game. However, prior to that, they had faced the Panthers in three consecutive Week 3 preseason matchups with all three of those games staying 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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08-23-18 | Eagles v. Browns -3 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Philadelphia at 8 pm et on Thursday. It’s fairly evident through two preseason games that the Eagles are putting virtually no weight on August victories. Philadelphia’s main concern right now is getting its QB tandem of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles healthy before its regular season opener on September 6th. Foles is expected to see some action on Thursday but how much he plays and how vanilla the offense he is running is remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the Browns have drummed up plenty of preseason hype despite only splitting their first two games. Both Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield should get extended playing time on Thursday night and while there’s no true QB controversy in Cleveland right now – at least according to head coach Hue Jackson – both Taylor and Mayfield are playing like there is. I believe the oddsmakers have got it right installing the Browns as the favorite in this matchup and feel the line could be even higher were it not for the two teams’ reputations. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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08-18-18 | 49ers v. Texans OVER 41 | 13-16 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Houston at 8 pm et on Saturday. We saw two quite different games from these two teams in last week's preseason openers. The 49ers rallied in the fourth quarter to defeat the Cowboys 24-21 and got tremendous production from their second and third-string quarterbacks. I fully expect to see more from their first unit tonight, with Jimmy Garropolo getting into rhythm with his receiving corps. Meanwhile, the Texans scored only 17 points in a road win over the Chiefs. I do like the Texans preseason QB rotation with Brandon Weeden and Joe Webb following DeShaun Watson, who should get stretched out a little more tonight. Another game where we've seen a significant northward shift in the total, but it's still worth a play on the 'over' at the current price. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-18 | Bills v. Browns OVER 41 | 19-17 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Cleveland at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Browns preseason opener in Buffalo last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they host the Bills on Friday night. Buffalo put up 23 points in a losing effort at home against Carolina last week. A.J. McCarron is likely to get the start after Nathan Peterman took his turn last week. The Bills actually do have a solid QB rotation - at least by NFL Preseason standards, with first round draft pick Josh Allen rounding out the trio (he threw for a touchdown in last week's loss). The Browns have plenty of buzz around them this August, largely due to the presence of first overall pick Baker Mayfield. He looked great at times and shaky at others in last week's victory over the Giants. I look for him to continue to progress against the Bills second-team defense this week. Meanwhile, starting QB Tyrod Taylor will certainly be motivated to put points on the board early against his former team. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-18 | Dolphins v. Panthers OVER 43 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Carolina at 7:30 pm et on Friday. This is one of the highest totals on the board this week but it's warranted in my opinion. The Dolphins put up 24 points in a losing effort at home against Tampa Bay last week. It's likely we'll see more of starter Ryan Tannehill tonight although the 'Fins do have a solid QB rotation with no fewer than four capable preseason quarterbacks. DeVante Parker remains sidelined but he likely wouldn't have played much here in Week 2 of the preseason anyway. The Panthers are coming off a win in Buffalo last week, scoring 28 points in the process. Backup quarterbacks Taylor Heinecke and Garrett Gilbert each threw a touchdown pass in the victory. Tonight, Cam Newton and the Panthers starters are expected to play the better part of the first half. This total has moved up considerably since opening but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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08-16-18 | Jets v. Redskins -1.5 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 71 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over New York at 8 pm et on Thursday. These two teams had much different experiences in Week 1 of NFL Preseason action. The Jets cruised to a shutout victory over the Falcons at home while the Redskins blew a 17-10 fourth quarter lead in New England - ultimately falling by a 26-17 score. I fully expect Washington to play with more purpose here as it tries to notch its first victory of the preseason. I like the fact that the Redskins employ a solid QB rotation with Colt McCoy and Kevin Hogan seeing the bulk of the action. Even Hogan has had plenty of experience playing in the preseason over the last couple of years. The Jets have a nice QB rotation of their own with rookie Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater following veteran Josh McCown. With that being said, I'm not sure that trio can perform much better than it did last week, completing 21-of-27 passes for 185 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Even with that near perfect preseason performance they still only managed to score 17 points in the victory. After losing rookie RB Derrius Guice to a season-ending injury last week, the Redskins are in desperate need of a positive in the form of a victory this Thursday. Take Washington (10*). |
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08-16-18 | Steelers v. Packers UNDER 43 | Top | 34-51 | Loss | -109 | 71 h 16 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Green Bay at 8 pm et on Thursday. We've seen some major adjustments from the oddsmakers in terms of totals in advance of NFL Preseason Week 2. I'm not sure all of the moves are warranted, including this one. Yes, both the Steelers and Packers put up an impressive 31 points in opening week victories. However, I'm not sold on either offense repeating those performances as they go head-to-head this Thursday night. Both looked somewhat vulnerable defending the pass last week, something they'll aim to clean up here. Neither QB rotation is all that imposing, especially with Ben Roethlisberger not expected to play for the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers only slated to make a cameo appearance for the Packers. Pack backup QB Brett Hundley saw plenty of game action for the Pack last year in Rodgers' absence, but didn't play all that well. He did look relatively sharp in last week's preseason opener but still only managed one touchdown and one interception. After Hundley comes rookie Tim Boyle and former Brown DeShone Kizer, who is still learning the Packers offense. Take the under (10*). |
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08-10-18 | Lions +3 v. Raiders | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Oakland at 10:30 pm et on Friday. The Lions have traveled all this way for their preseason opener in Oakland - might as well pick up a 'W' while they're at it. We have two new head coaches going head-to-head in this matchup with Matt Patricia for the Lions and Jon Gruden back with the Raiders. For Gruden this is old hat. The same can't be said for Patricia, however, and I really do feel that a win would mean something here as he tries to instill a winning culture in Detroit. The Raiders are basically set as far as position battles go on offense while the defense has undergone plenty of turnover across the board. I can't help but feel the Raiders defense is ripe for the picking here and the Lions have a solid preseason QB rotation with Matt Cassel and Jake Rudock getting the bulk of the snaps. I look for a strong performance from Rudock in particular here. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Lions. Take Detroit (10*). |
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08-09-18 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Thursday. This is currently the biggest pointspread on Thursday's NFL preseason slate but it's warranted in my opinion. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett puts little stock in preseason wins and losses. The 'Boys have gone 10-18-1 ATS in preseason action under Garrett. On the flip side, the 49ers went 3-1 ATS in Kyle Shanahan's first year as head coach in 2017 and there are certainly plenty of reasons for optimism here in 2018 as well. Perhaps no team relies more heavily on a handful of star players than the Cowboys, most notably RB Zeke Elliott. He'll see nothing more than a cameo appearance here, however, as will the rest of their regular starters. The 49ers have more depth on both sides of the football as far as I'm concerned, and I look for them to ultimately secure a win and cover on Thursday night. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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08-09-18 | Browns v. Giants OVER 34.5 | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 7 pm et on Thursday. We didn't see much from the Browns offense in last year's preseason slate, which was to be expected. Here in 2018 I do expect to see Cleveland do a better job of putting points on the board in August, with a stronger QB rotation and more of a chip on its shoulder off yet another miserable campaign. Baker Mayfield is expected to see the bulk of the snaps for the Browns and all indications are that he is primed and ready to produce, particularly against second-string defenses this preseason. On the flip side, the Giants are ushering in a new era with Pat Shurmur at the helm. I like what I've seen and heard from the G-Men during training camp. Eli Manning has been sharp and while he isn't expected to see much action on Thursday, likely backup Davis Webb has been performing well during camp and will have some solid wide receiver depth to work with. Noting that Shurmur-coached teams have posted a 5-2-1 o/u mark in limited preseason action. Take the over (10*). |
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08-31-17 | Titans v. Chiefs OVER 38 | 6-30 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Kansas City at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. While this is perhaps the most meaningless of all preseason weeks I actually expect to see both of these offenses open things up a little bit on Thursday night. The Titans were a no-show at home against the Bears last Sunday, scoring just a single touchdown in a 19-7 loss. That was discouraging after Tennessee hung 34 points on the board against the Panthers the week previous, but not all that unexpected. I do expect to see the Titans bounce back against a good Chiefs defense, but one that lacks depth. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are fresh off a 26-13 loss in Seattle. Their offense looked disjointed in that game after scoring 30 points in a rout of the Bengals the week previous. A return home should help their cause here, and I like the matchup of mobile QB Pat Mahomes going up against the Titans defense. Take the over (10*). |
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08-26-17 | Bills +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
NFLX AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Baltimore at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Bills this week as they aim to secure their first victory of the preseason against the undefeated Ravens. Keep in mind, we won with the Ravens in last week's rout of the Dolphins. Buffalo held its own last week as it fell by just four points against an Eagles squad that has played pretty well so far in August. Meanwhile, the Ravens have drawn a favorable preseason schedule to this point. They're just looking to stay as healthy as they can with QB Joe Flacco still sidelined. It's not as if Baltimore has a ton of depth on offense. Last week the Ravens had a game gift-wrapped for them by the Dolphins. I don't expect victory to come as easy on Saturday. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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08-25-17 | Patriots -2.5 v. Lions | 30-28 | Loss | -113 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Detroit at 7 pm et on Friday. The Lions are off to a perfect 2-0 start to the preseason but they've faced a pretty soft schedule, going up against the Colts and Jets. They'll take a step up in class here as the Patriots should at least do some game-planning, and I'm confident we'll see New England ultimately pull away for its first victory of the preseason. The Pats looked pretty good in last week's narrow loss in Houston, putting 23 points on the board against a Texans squad that was going all out for the victory after getting crushed in its preseason opener. Meanwhile, we won with the Lions laying a handful of points, but that win didn't come easy as Detroit managed only 16 points in a victory over the lowly Jets. This should be an entertaining affair by exhibition standards. All things considered we're looking at a reasonable price to back the superior team. Take New England (10*). |
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08-25-17 | Patriots v. Lions UNDER 43.5 | 30-28 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Detroit at 7 pm et on Friday. I believe this is a situation where public perception and reality are two very different things. The public will be anticipating a shootout between the Patriots and Lions. After all, we're likely to see extended action from the starters, and most minds immediately go to Tom Brady and Matt Stafford airing it out. However, the Pats have already seen their first two games go 'over' the total and I believe that results in an inflated total here. Keep in mind, the Lions offense hasn't exactly been lighting it up this preseason, despite facing two pedestrian defenses in the Colts and Jets. They'll be in tough against a quality Patriots defense here. Meanwhile, the Pats rarely lay all of their cards on the table in the preseason - not even in the Week 3 'dress rehearsal'. I'll play the number here and call for a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-17 | Panthers v. Jaguars UNDER 43 | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Jacksonville at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Panthers first two exhibition tilts over the last three preseasons (four including this year). With that being said, in none of those years did their third preseason game go 'over' the number. I don't see that trend changing here. Yes, Cam Newton will start for the Panthers. but he'll see nothing more than a cameo appearance. Meanwhile, the Jaguars offense has been extremely limited since training camp opened. Chad Henne will get the start at quarterback on Thursday but I'm not expecting him to enjoy much success. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette will not play. This total is being priced as a preseason shootout, but I just don't see that type of game developing. Take the under (10*). |
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08-21-17 | Giants -1 v. Browns | 6-10 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Cleveland at 8 pm et on Monday. Pretty simple logic here as the Giants are coming off a loss to the Steelers in their preseason opener while the Browns outlasted the Saints last week. I'm confident we'll see the G-Men bounce back in this matchup. Remember, Cleveland went winless in last year's preseason while the Giants split their four contests. The Browns are trying to lay a solid foundation here in August after a disastrous 2016 campaign. My concern here this week is that they'll likely give Brock Osweiler a longer look under center, whereas last week it was DeShone Kizer seeing the bulk of the action, and he looked good while he was in there. I'm not sure that Osweiler will fare so well against the Giants. Take New York (10*). |
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08-19-17 | Jets v. Lions -5.5 | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over New York at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This is a high line for a preseason game but it's warranted in my opinion. The Jets got solid performances from their beleaguered quarterbacks last week but still managed to score just seven points in a win over the Titans. Now they hit the road to face a Lions squad that appeared to be in midseason form in a win over the Colts last week. Detroit has an excellent QB rotation and a potential preseason breakout star in WR Kenny Golladay. That should prove to be enough against the lowly Jets on Saturday. Take Detroit (10*). |
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08-18-17 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Minnesota at 10 pm et on Friday. The Seahawks seem to have their swagger back based on what we saw in their preseason opener against the Chargers last week. Seattle put up a whopping 48 points in that victory and I expect to see some carry-over from that performance here. It's easy to like Seattle's preseason QB rotation with Russell Wilson followed by Trevone Boykin and Austin Davis. Against a Vikings squad that should be 'fat and happy' off a 17-10 road win in Buffalo last week, I'm confident the Seahawks will put forth a strong performance in front of their home crowd. Take Seattle (10*). |
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08-17-17 | Bucs -1 v. Jaguars | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Jacksonville at 8 pm et on Thursday. The Jaguars pulled off an "upset" of the Patriots last week in Foxborough. But are there really any "upsets" in the preseason? In short, no. Here, I look for the Jags to regress and fall to the Bucs on Thursday night. The Bucs came out flat in a 23-12 loss to the Bengals last week but that should serve as ample motivation as they head to Jacksonville this week. The Jags offense had looked very limited over the course of training camp, and don't let their 31-point outburst last week fool you. The Jags threw the football only 18 times. RB Corey Grant ran for a whopping 120 yards in that game. Don't count on a repeat performance here. Meanwhile, the Bucs used four QB's and threw the football 40 times last week. They may scale things back in that regard and run the football a little bit more in this one, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. There's a reason we've seen the line shift in the Bucs favor here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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08-17-17 | Bills v. Eagles -4.5 | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Eagles on Thursday night. Note that the SU winner has gone a perfect 18-0 ATS in the Bills last 18 preseason games. In fading the Bills last week against the Vikings I talked about how Buffalo could turn out to be the weakest team in the AFC East this year, even though most have that spot reserved for the lowly Jets. I simply feel the Bills are a bit of a mess, perhaps even moreso after dealing WR Sammy Watkins and getting an injured Jordan Matthews in return. Things wont' get any easier for Buffalo here as the Eagles are coming off an ugly loss in Green Bay last week and should be highly-motivated to respond in front of the home faithful. Philadelphia has a lot to prove after collapsing down the stretch last year. We're being asked to lay a considerable pointspread here considering this is the preseason. I do believe the line is warranted. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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08-17-17 | Ravens +3 v. Dolphins | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark fading the Dolphins last week as they rallied from a 20-10 deficit to defeat the Atlanta Falcons at home. I don't expect them to post a second consecutive win on Thursday night, however. The Ravens had no trouble getting past a lifeless Redskins squad last week. While they'll face a tougher challenge here, I expect to see Baltimore put forth another strong performance. Note that the Ravens have now gone a perfect 5-0 SU in preseason action since last year. With Joe Flacco dealing with an injury the coaching staff needs to see what they have at quarterback. Josh Woodrum out of Liberty was terrific last week, and I believe he'll continue to push backup Ryan Mallett this Thursday. The Ravens may have their issues once the regular season gets going, but for the preseason, they're a solid bet thanks to their reasonably strong depth. Just not sure the line is warranted in favor of the Dolphins here. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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