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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-03-23 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan UNDER 47.5 | Top | 30-32 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled a whopping 72 points. As a result we're working with a higher posted total this time around. Note that the 'over' hasn't cashed in consecutive meetings in this series since 2018. Both teams come in rested with Winnipeg last playing on August 24th and Saskatchewan fresh off its bye week (its last game was on August 20th). I do think that favors the defenses at this stage of the season. By all accounts, Winnipeg has had the league's best defense this year. While Saskatchewan has been wildly inconsistent in that department, it faces a Blue Bombers offense that is surely in for some regression after gaining just shy of 450 yards and scoring a whopping 47 points against Montreal last week. The Riders will give Jake Dolegala just his third career CFL start at quarterback. He performed well against B.C. last time out but I expect the Riders to scale back the playbook against a difficult defensive opponent here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-26-23 | Hamilton v. BC UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. Something has to give from a totals perspective in this game as the Tiger-Cats enter riding a four-game 'under' streak while the Lions have seen each of their last three contests go 'over' the total. The last time we saw these two teams meet last season they combined to score just 29 points and I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday. For B.C. this is a big bounce-back spot at home off an ugly defensive effort in Saskatchewan last week. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 17-6 with the Lions playing at home off an upset loss against a divisional opponent, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a long-term 159-112 with the Lions installed as a favorite. The Ti-Cats have found their running game over the last couple of weeks, racking up north of 200 yards on the ground on just 32 attempts. Their gameplan here should involved churning out long, clock-eating drives in an effort to keep the Lions potent offense off the field as much as possible. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 149-116 with Hamilton checking in as an underdog. Take the under (10*). |
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08-13-23 | Ottawa v. Toronto UNDER 48 | Top | 31-44 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Toronto at 7 pm et on Sunday. While things haven't gone particularly well for the RedBlacks overall this season, their defense has held up reasonably well, allowing more than 28 points just once. Only two opponents have managed to rack up 100+ rushing yards against them while they've allowed just one opponent to complete more than 23 passes. The league-leading Argonauts figure to challenge them here but with QB Chad Kelly at less than 100% healthy after suffering an ankle injury last week and an offense that sputtered as a whole last week in Calgary, there is a window of opportunity for the RedBlacks here. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 31-7 with Toronto playing on eight or more days' rest, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 33-16 in Ottawa's last 49 game road games against divisional foes. The 'over' did cash in the most recent matchup between these two teams last September but we haven't seen consecutive meetings in this series go 'over' the total since 2019. Take the under (10*). |
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08-11-23 | Saskatchewan +5.5 v. Montreal | Top | 12-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Saskatchewan plus the points over Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. No one wanted any part of Saskatchewan last week at home against Ottawa after it had lost three games in a row including a 31-13 beatdown against Toronto in its Touchdown Atlantic game. The Roughriders didn't turn in a perfect performance but they did snap their skid with a 26-24 win. Here, I like their chances of staging the upset as they head on the road to face the upstart Alouettes on Friday. Montreal has posted back-to-back win (and covers) against the Stampeders and Tiger-Cats. Note that the Als are a long-term 37-63 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 1.6 points in that situation. The Riders are coming off somewhat of an outlier performance as they didn't force a single turnover against the RedBlacks. They were fortunate to pull out that win despite losing the turnover battle 3-0. The last time they failed to turn their opponent over even once they proceeded to force three in their next game - a 29-26 road win over Calgary back in Week 3. The Als are dealing with injury concerns on offense with both QB Cody Fajardo and RB William Stanback limited in practice this week but expected to suit up. Take Saskatchewan (10*). |
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08-06-23 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan OVER 44 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Sunday. The RedBlacks are coming off an incredibly low-scoring game against the punchless Tiger-Cats last week while the Roughriders are fresh off consecutive 'under' results after the 'over' had gone 4-1 in their first five games this season. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair on Sunday in Regina. Ottawa has gotten a spark from QB Dustin Crum but we saw some regression from its offense last week. That wasn't unexpected as its opponent, Hamilton, was seeing Crum for the second time this season. The Riders won't have the benefit of that first-hand knowledge as they face the RedBlacks for the first time this season on Sunday. Note that while Saskatchewan did score only 13 points in last week's defeat against Toronto, it did move the football as well as it has all season in that contest. One thing is for sure, the Riders are going to let it fly with Mason Fine at quarterback. Keep in mind, the last time we saw the Riders play at home they scored 31 points in a wild two-point defeat against Calgary. Ottawa on the other hand is just one game removed from a 43-41 overtime victory against those same Stampeders. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 32-15 with Saskatchewan playing at home off consecutive 'under' results with that situation producing an average total of 53.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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08-04-23 | Toronto v. Calgary +8.5 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Toronto at 9 pm et on Friday. The Argonauts remain undefeated at 6-0 SU and ATS on the season while the Stampeders have been a major disappointment going 2-5 SU and ATS. So it might be a bit perplexing but Calgary could very well be happy to see Toronto on Friday. The Stamps are an incredible 15-2 in the last 17 meetings in this series and haven't lost a game by more than six points against the Argos since way back in 2012. Also note that while things haven't gone well for Calgary so far this season it can take solace in the fact that it is on a long-term 56-33 ATS run in the month of August. It also checks in 13-4 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.0 points in that situation. The Argos are currently dealing with a cluster of injuries on their offensive line. Despite winning 31-13 against Saskatchewan last week, Toronto completed just 13-of-21 passes for 122 yards. Meanwhile, Calgary dropped a 25-18 decision in Montreal last Sunday but limited the Alouettes to 16-of-29 passing for 158 yards. Take Calgary (10*). |
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08-03-23 | BC v. Winnipeg OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-50 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
West Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. After a low-scoring CFL slate last week (all four games stayed 'under' the total) that featured plenty of sloppy play, I look for two of the league's best teams to put on a show in Winnipeg on Thursday. B.C. will welcome back standout WR Dominique Rhymes. The Lions didn't need to keep their foot on the gas for four quarter last week as they cruised to a 27-0 win over lowly Edmonton - their second shutout victory over the Elks this season. There's no denying B.C.'s defense has been outstanding this season but this is a big revenge spot for the Blue Bombers, at home no less, after suffering a 30-6 beatdown here on June 22nd. The Bombers defense just hasn't been its dominant self for much of this season. They earned a reprieve of sorts last week by facing the aforementioned winless Elks but have given up 27 points or more in four of their seven games this season. Note that each of their last three opponents have rushed for 100+ yards. As we saw last week, give the Lions any sort of running room and that only serves to open up their passing game. The 'under' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series. We haven't seen four consecutive matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total since 2008-2010. Take the over (10*). |
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07-29-23 | Saskatchewan v. Toronto OVER 47.5 | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Saskatchewan and Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. Last year's Touchdown Atlantic game featured this same matchup with Toronto prevailing by a 30-24 score on a late pick-six. We're working with a slightly higher posted total than we saw in last year's game but I don't think enough of an adjustment has been made. The Roughriders are coming off a miserable offensive showing last week, dropping a 19-9 decision on the road against arguably the league's best defense in B.C. That was Mason Fine's first start for the team this season after Trevor Harris went down to injury. The good news is, Fine threw for just shy of 300 yards and is in his third year with the Riders. It's time for him to step up and show off his arm, keeping in mind he ran a high-powered offense effectively in his days with North Texas in the college ranks. The Argonauts are missing a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football. That didn't hurt them last week as they benefited from facing a punchless Tiger-Cats offense that was down to its third-string quarterback. On the flip side, Toronto's offense excelled once again, at one point scoring three touchdowns in an 18-minute stretch in the first half. The biggest question here is probably whether Saskatchewan can do its part offensively to help this total along. Note that the Riders have shown a solid scoring floor in this particular matchup, putting up at least 21 points in 11 consecutive meetings. Take the over (10*). |
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07-21-23 | Toronto v. Hamilton +9.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Argos are off to a perfect 4-0 start to the season, both SU and ATS, and most project this as a layup on the road against the 2-4 Tiger-Cats on Friday. I'm not so easily convinced. Toronto has gotten off to a red hot start on the strength of forcing a whopping 13 turnovers. Of note, the Argos won the turnover battle by a whopping 6-0 margin two games back against B.C. but still won that game by 'only' 21 points (and it was an 11-point game before Toronto tacked on a pair of scores in the game's final minute-and-a-half). I actually think the fact that the Ti-Cats will be giving rookie Taylor Powell his first career start at quarterback might work in their favor here to some extent. While QB Matt Shiltz performed admirably in place of an injured Bo Levi Mitchell, he often tried to do too much, ultimately tossing just two touchdowns compared to four interceptions. Powell is more of a pocket-passer than Shiltz and I do think he can find some success with a somewhat conservative gameplan that will undoubtedly lean heavily on RB James Butler, who not only thrives as a runner but also as a receiver in the short passing game. The Ti-Cats defense has made positive strides over the last couple of weeks, first holding the RedBlacks out of the end zone until the final two minutes of the first half (and then for the rest of the game) two weeks ago before allowing only one touchdown in the game's first 48 minutes in Edmonton last week. While they'll undoubtedly be taking a step up in class on Friday, I do think the Argos offense is in line for some regression following four straight 32+ point performances to open the campaign. This is of course a revenge spot for the Ti-Cats after they dropped a 32-14 decision in Toronto earlier this season. Note that the Argos have now won three straight meetings in this series going back to last season and that's worth mentioning as they haven't won four straight matchups with the Ti-Cats since 2012-13. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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07-14-23 | Toronto v. Montreal +5.5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Alouettes were in an awful spot last Sunday as they travelled across the country to take on a Lions squad that had just suffered its first loss of the campaign in embarrassing fashion (QB Vernon Adams Jr. threw six interceptions) less than a week earlier. Montreal couldn't match B.C.'s intensity in a double-digit loss. That makes two straight defeats for the Als and that's worth noting as they've gone a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off consecutive losses over the last three seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 12.2 points in that situation. The Argos are off to a 3-0 start, scoring a whopping 120 points in the process. They've benefited from playing two of their three games at home with their lone road tilt coming against the 0-5 Elks. Note that Toronto did deliver a 34-27 victory in the most recent meeting between these East Division rivals last November but the Argos haven't posted back-to-back wins by more than a field goal against the Als since back in 2017. Incredibly, Toronto hasn't won a game by more than single point in Montreal since October of 2015. Take Montreal (10*). |
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07-13-23 | Hamilton v. Edmonton Elks OVER 42.5 | Top | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Edmonton at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Edmonton Elks are off to an unsurprisingly awful start to the season, losers of five games in a row heading into Thursday's matchup with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Edmonton could only muster 18 points in its last two games - both on the road - but I do think it made some progress offensively going back to QB Taylor Cornelius at quarterback in last week's ugly 12-11 defeat in Saskatchewan. In that contest, the Elks racked up 369 total yards, often moving the football down the field at will in what is usually a hostile environment in Regina. They ended up with little to show for it but I do think that changes back at home this week. Note that the last time we saw Edmonton play here it put up 31 points in a game that totalled 73 points against Toronto. It should be happy to see Hamilton noting that it has scored 23 and 29 points in two matchups between these two teams over the last two seasons. The Tiger-Cats scored only 21 points against a better-than-expected Ottawa defense last Saturday but did manage to make a late goal-line stand to earn their first win of the season. Note that Hamilton has displayed a rock solid scoring floor and a sky-high ceiling in this particular matchup in recent years, putting up at least 25 points in each of the last nine meetings while producing 38 points or more on three occasions over that stretch. The Elks are currently allowing a lofty 5.6 yards per rush and 8.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Hamilton hasn't been much better against the run, yielding 5.2 ypr and even worse against the pass, giving up a whopping 9.6 yppa. The 'under' is 4-1 in games involving Edmonton this season but it has yet to post three consecutive 'under' results. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have yet to record back-to-back 'under' results and are of course coming off an 'under' last week against Ottawa. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 24-11 with the Elks listed as a home underdog of three points or less, leading to an average total of 55.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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07-08-23 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -1.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Hamilton minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Tiger-Cats will look to finally pick up their first win of the season on Saturday as they host the Redblacks. Ottawa will welcome back QB Jeremiah Masoli after he started the year on the injured list. I do wonder whether he's being rushed back with last week's starter, Tyrie Adams sidelined with a knee injury and few other viable options at the position. While the Redblacks did pick up their first win of the season last week, it came against the lowly Elks. Hamilton has faced an extremely difficult schedule to open the campaign, going up against Winnipeg, Toronto and Montreal - those three teams have lost just two games combined so far this season. Note that you would have to go back eight meetings in this series - all the way to 2018 - to find the last time Ottawa won a game in this series. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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07-06-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Saskatchewan OVER 42.5 | Top | 11-12 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Saskatchewan at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Elks are coming off a low-scoring affair in Ottawa last week as they dropped a 26-7 decision in QB Jarrett Doege's first CFL start. They'll turn back to Taylor Cornelius at quarterback this week and it's the right move in my opinion after he had his best game of the season (before getting inexplicably benched in favor of Doege) two weeks ago against Toronto. Edmonton has indicated that it wants to simplify its offensive gameplan and play much faster this week. I think that means we'll see the Elks let Cornelius cut it loose in the passing game, noting that their ground attack has been virtually non-existent in the early going this season. This will be the second matchup between these two teams already this season after the Roughriders edged the Elks 17-13 in Edmonton back in Week 1. Note that the Elks have shown a much higher scoring floor here in Regina in recent years, scoring 24 and 26 points in two road matchups with the Riders going back to 2021 (those two games totalled 50 and 53 points). Of note, Taylor Cornelius was the Elks quarterback for both of those contests. The Elks defense has been alarmingly bad against the run this season, giving up 135, 119, 191 and 208 yards on the ground. I question how many second-and-long situations they'll be able to put the Riders in on Thursday. Saskatchewan QB Trevor Harris likely benefited most from the bye week as he was dealing with nagging hip and back injuries. Edmonton didn't give up a ton of yardage through the air in the last two games but that was largely game-script related as it dropped lopsided decisions against Toronto and Ottawa (the Argos and RedBlacks attempted only 23 and 20 passes, respectively). The Riders have aired it out 30+ times in all three games this season (their most recent contest did go go overtime). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 36-18 with the Elks seeking revenge for a loss in which they scored 14 points or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 55.0 points. The 'over' is also 11-2 with the Riders playing at home off a win by three points or less, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 53.6 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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06-23-23 | Montreal +3 v. Hamilton | Top | 38-12 | Win | 100 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While the Tiger-Cats are licking their wounds following their second straight loss to open the season, the Alouettes are fresh off their bye week, which came on the heels of a season-opening victory over Ottawa. Als QB Cody Fajardo didn't look great in his regular season debut with his new team, which perhaps was to be expected. I do expect a better showing from him following an extra week of practice and perhaps taking a step down in class against a Ti-Cats defense that hasn't shown a pulse through two games. Back in Week 1, Hamilton allowed three Winnipeg touchdowns in less than an eight-minute stretch in the first quarter. Last Sunday, the Ti-Cats yielded three touchdowns in just over a 17-minute stretch in the first half against Toronto. You have to wonder whether the Hamilton offense is capable of keeping up here as it deals with a number of key injuries. QB Bo Levi Mitchell isn't expected to play on Friday. It will also be missing three offensive linemen, with a fourth - Dayton Black - suiting up but not 100% healthy. As you would expect, the Als are at virtually full strength following an early season bye week. Only DB Nafees Lyon checks in as questionable for Friday's game. Here, we'll note that the Ti-Cats are now 0-6 ATS in the month of June going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 11.2 points in those games. Meanwhile, the Als are 9-2 ATS when involved in games where the line settled between +3 and -3 since the start of last season, which is likely to be the case here, outscoring foes by 7.0 points on average in that situation. Take Montreal (10*). |
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06-17-23 | Edmonton Elks v. BC OVER 46 | Top | 0-22 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams were involved in relatively low-scoring affairs last week with Edmonton falling by a 17-13 score at home against Saskatchewan and B.C. delivering a 25-15 win in Calgary. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair as they match up in Vancouver on Saturday. While Edmonton is expected to be one of the league's worst teams this season, I do think their offense will be better than it showed last week against Saskatchewan. The Elks have plenty of talent at the wide receiver position with veterans Eugene Lewis and Emmanuel Arceneaux leading the way. Lewis showed an excellent rapport with QB Taylor Cornelius last week, hauling in five catches for 148 yards and a touchdown. While the Elks defense seemed to hold up well against the Riders, an injury to Saskatchewan's offensive focal point WR Derel Walker likely played a role in that. Here, the Elks will be up against a Lions offense that was humming in last week's win in Calgary. B.C. found the end zone twice in the game's first 16 minutes and QB Vernon Adams Jr. contributed two passing touchdowns and one on the ground. On the flip side, the Lions defense played exceptionally well but did benefit from Stampeders RB Ka'Deem Carey going down to injury, not to mention QB Jake Maier working with a depleted wide receiving corps. The 'over' has cashed in three of the last four meetings in this series with a 'floor' of 45 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-22 | Toronto v. Winnipeg UNDER 49 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 6 pm et on Sunday. To me, this has been a rather uneventful CFL season with things going mostly as planned with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers entering the Grey Cup favored to win once again. While I do think Winnipeg ultimately wins this game, I'm not interested in laying the points here. Instead, I'll call for the Blue Bombers defense to come up big again while both offenses play it conservatively enough to help keep this one 'under' what I consider to be an inflated total. In an odd quirk, this will be the first time either side faces a different opponent in the last four games. By that I mean, the Argos have faced Montreal in each of their last three contests while the Bombers are coming off three consecutive games against the Lions. These two teams faced each other just once during the regular season and the result was a 23-22 Winnipeg victory in Toronto. That game actually eclipsed the closing total by a half-point, so we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total here. I don't believe it's warranted. While Argos QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson avoided costly turnovers against Montreal last week, he has been turnover-prone over the course of the season and I don't believe Toronto wants to put too much on his plate here, especially with veteran RB and former Bomber Andrew Harris in the backfield. The same goes for the Bombers, at least to a certain extent, as they're always comfortable doing just enough offensively while putting most of the load on their elite defense, which has been the class of the CFL this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 6-3 the last nine times the Argos have sought revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent while the 'under' is 18-11 in Winnipeg's last 29 games when installed as a favorite. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-22 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -6 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Hamilton minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. We successfully faded the RedBlacks last week but needed a late Alouettes go-ahead score to get there. I expect this week's contest to be a little more straight-forward as Ottawa makes the trip to Hamilton to take on the Tiger-Cats. Note that this will be the second meeting between these two teams this season after Hamilton escaped with a 25-23 victory back in mid-July. It's worth noting that the RedBlacks didn't commit a single penalty in that game and won the turnover battle 4-2 yet still lost. Banged-up and simply playing out the string at this point, I don't expect Ottawa to pick itself up off the mat following last week's loss. The Ti-Cats check in playing some of their best football in an otherwise disappointing season, reeling off consecutive wins over Saskatchewan and Calgary. With Ottawa going completely one-dimensional on offense (it has run the football 21 or fewer times in five straight games), I expect the Ti-Cats defense to feast in this one. Note that the RedBlacks are a woeful 16-30 ATS the last 46 times they've come off a high-scoring game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here, while the Ti-Cats are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of a touchdown or less. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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10-14-22 | Montreal -3.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Montreal minus the points over Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. The RedBlacks sold out to stop the run and ultimately pulled off a 24-18 upset victory in Montreal on Monday afternoon (we won with the 'under' in that game). Now it's the Als turn to make the necessary adjustments and get back in the win column with a quick rematch on Friday night in Ottawa. I like their chances of doing just that against a banged-up RedBlacks squad. Ottawa will be without WRs Jaylon Acklin and DeVonte Dedmon after both contributed to Monday's victory in Montreal. That's not the worst news as it will also be missing a pair of key defenders in Patrick Levels and Praise Martin-Oguike. Montreal will obviously have a chip on its shoulder entering this game having dropped two straight meetings against Ottawa. Remember, the Als lost a 38-24 decision at home against the RedBlacks in early September as well. They had no answer for the aforementioned Acklin in that contest as he went off for seven catches and 159 yards. While Ottawa QB Nick Arbuckle has been efficient in those last two matchups against Montreal, he's been more of a 'game manager' than anything else, throwing for 542 yards but just one touchdown. I don't think there's any intimidation factor at play here as Montreal won the lone previous matchup between these two teams in Ottawa by a 40-33 score back in July. Look for the Als to bounce back on Friday. Take Montreal (10*). |
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10-10-22 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Montreal at 1 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the RedBlacks blowout loss against the Lions last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as they stay on the road to face the Alouettes on Canadian Thanksgiving Monday. Ottawa was in an extremely tough spot last week, playing on a short week after a physically-draining affair against the Argos in which they coughed the football up six times and dropped a 45-14 decision. Not surprisingly, we saw Ottawa's defense look tired against the Lions, ultimately giving up 34 points on over 450 total yards of offense. Here, I do look for that Ottawa defense to regain its footing against a limited Alouettes offense that has gone run-heavy in recent weeks. Even two games back, when Montreal made good on 26-of-35 passes for 244 yards, without turning the ball over once, it still only managed to score 23 points in a win over the Tiger-Cats. It's a similar story for the RedBlacks offense. Two games back they completed 33-of-54 passes for a whopping 368 yards but could only muster 15 points in that aforementioned blowout loss against the Argos. In fact, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Ottawa scored more than 19 points in a game and that came in a wild 38-24 win over these same Alouettes right here in Montreal. Needless to say, the Als have had this rematch circled and I certainly don't expect them to turn in another flat defensive performance as they look to keep their three-game winning streak rolling. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the RedBlacks coming off five or six losses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 41.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-22 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton UNDER 49 | Top | 14-18 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Riders blowout loss to the Blue Bombers last Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this week as Saskatchewan travels to Hamilton to face the Tiger-Cats. The Riders have allowed their last three opponents to rack up 130+ rushing yards but that's had more to do with negative game script than anything else as they dropped all three contests, with two of them coming in blowout fashion against the Bombers. Hamilton doesn't figure to have the type of offense to take full advantage of the Riders defensive deficiencies, noting that it hasn't had a 100+ rushing yard game since August 12th against Toronto. The Riders pass defense has held up well, allowing just 27-of-49 completions over their last two games. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Riders allowed an opponent to pass for over 300 yards. This is actually a higher posted total than we saw the last time these two teams met back in June - a game that totalled only 43 points. Note that the 'under' is 30-16 the last 46 times the Riders have played on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 46.9 points. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have seen the 'under' go 34-18 the last 52 times they've sought revenge for a road loss by 17+ points against an opponent, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 48.2 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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09-30-22 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 48 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 29 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 8 pm et on Friday. This will be the third meeting between these two teams in the last four games. The first was a low-scoring affair (we won with the 'under' in that contest) as the Blue Bombers eked out a 20-18 win. Playing on a short week, the rematch was a track meet with Winnipeg prevailing by a 54-20 score. Here, I'm anticipating something closer resembling the first matchup as the two teams come off their respective bye weeks. It's worth noting that this total is higher than both of the previous meetings. When we last saw Winnipeg take the field, it was routed by a 48-31 score in Hamilton. Needless to say it will be focused on getting things back under control defensively on Friday. We're still talking about one of the league's best defensive teams. The Riders lost 26-24 against the lowly Elks last time out. Edmonton ran wild in that game, racking up 202 rushing yards on just 22 carries. I'm willing to chalk that up as an anomaly as Saskatchewan has allowed just 95 rush yards per game this season. It is worth noting that the Riders did hold Edmonton to 13-of-24 passing for 237 yards and haven't allowed an opponent to pass for 300+ yards since August 19th against B.C. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-6 the last 22 times the Riders have played on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, with that spot producing an average total of just 44.0 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Bombers have come off an upset loss by 17+ points, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 47.5 points. Take the under (10*). |
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09-23-22 | Hamilton v. Montreal UNDER 52.5 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' the last time these two teams met back on August 20th. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too high. The Tiger-Cats are fresh off a wild 48-31 upset win over the Blue Bombers last week. Chalk up that offensive explosion as an anomaly as they had been held to 25 points or less in eight of their last 10 games previously and just 56 points combined over their last three contests. The Alouettes delivered their best defensive performance of the season last time out, posting a 31-10 victory over the B.C. Lions before their bye week. It's important to note that the Ti-Cats win last week was boosted by three Winnipeg turnovers, noting that Hamilton actually gained 'only' 97 yards rushing and 327 yards passing despite an ultra-efficient 25-of-32 game through the air. Hamilton has now gone four straight games without rushing for 100+ yards as a team. One-dimensional offenses don't tend to enjoy sustained success in the CFL. Speaking of one-dimensional, the Als aerial attack has been sputtering as they've completed 22 or fewer passes while throwing for 256 yards or less in four of their last five contests. Noting that the Ti-Cats have allowed completions on just 64-of-100 passes while forcing six turnovers over the last three games, Montreal will probably be looking to stay run-centric here. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 147-112 with the Ti-Cats seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 51.1 points. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times Hamilton has played on the road following a non-division game, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of only 36.5 points. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-22 | Calgary v. Edmonton Elks +10 | Top | 56-28 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Calgary at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Elks have very little left to play for as they sit in last place in the West Division. A home game against the rival Stampeders, playing with triple in-season revenge, should get their juices flowing, however. Edmonton kept things close in Monday's matchup between these two teams in Calgary, ultimately losing by just eight points. Note that the Stampeders defense has sagged as the season has gone on. They've now allowed 20+ pass completions in 10 consecutive games. On the flip side, the Stamps have scored 20+ points in four straight contests. They accomplished that feat only once previously this season and went on to score just 19 points in their next game. I saw some positives from the Elks offense on Monday as they gained 74 yards on 18 rush attempts and QB Taylor Cornelius completed 22-of-33 passes for 257 yards - the second straight games in which the Elks threw for 250+ yards. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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09-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan UNDER 44.5 | Top | 20-18 | Win | 100 | 100 h 16 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Saskatchewan at 6 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this total sets up on Sunday as the Blue Bombers and Roughriders meet for the first time in the 2022 season. Last year's three matchups between these two teams totalled 31, 42 and 38 points, with the latter result coming in the West Division Final. The Blue Bombers enter this game off one of their worst defensive efforts of the season, yet they still won that game by a 31-29 score over Calgary. In that contest, the Stampeders turned in a near perfect offensive performance, running for 115 yards on 18 attempts while completing 23-of-28 passes for 294 yards. They still 'only' scored 29 points. I don't envision the Riders improving or even coming close to reaching those numbers here. Saskatchewan performed about as well as anyone could have expected as it staged a 23-16 upset at B.C. last week. The Riders ran for 164 yards on 23 rush attempts and completed 19-of-24 passes for 321 yards in that victory. Again, Saskatchewan was that efficient offensively but still scored 'only' 23 points. Winnipeg has leaned heavily on its ground attack this season as its passing game hasn't been quite as effective or explosive as we've seen in years' past. The Bombers have ripped off 118+ rushing yards in four straight games entering this contest. The Riders present a difficult challenge in that regard, however, as they've given up 100+ rushing yards only twice in seven games this season - that's despite the fact that they've lost four of seven contests. This is actually a more critical matchup in the West Division than it might appear at first glance. While the Blue bombers sit atop the West Division at 6-1, with a loss here, the Riders would pull within two games of them noting that these two teams will meet two more times in September. With that in mind, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair, which lends itself to a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday afternoon in Regina. Take the under (10*). |
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08-26-22 | Hamilton +2.5 v. Toronto | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. These two teams have split a pair of meetings this season with both successfully defending their home field. Here, I look for a reversal of sorts as the Ti-Cats look to take a step toward taking control of the lowly East Division with a key road victory. Hamilton's offense has shown flashes of brilliance to be sure. The Tiger-Cats ground attack has led the way at times but last week they threw for over 300 yards for the second time in three games. All indications are that QB Dane Evans will be good to go for this one and I expect him to step in and perform well against an Argos defense that has been inconsistent at best. Note that teams that have chosen to run on the Argos have been successful, including the Ti-Cats, who gained 149 yards on just 21 attempts against them just two games back. Offensively, it seems as if Toronto has gone off a cliff. Yes, the Argos scored 34 points in a win over these same Ti-Cats earlier this month but that had more to do with Hamilton's inability to keep its offense on the field than anything else. Note that the Argos have gained fewer than 70 yards rushing in four straight games and now face a Ti-Cats squad that hasn't yielded more than 90 yards rushing since way back in Week 1. I get the feeling that Hamilton's defense will make life miserable on Argos QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson after getting torched for 382 yards through the air against Montreal last week. Hamilton has still held all seven opponents to 25 or fewer pass completions this season. Toronto needed a whopping 43 pass attempts to get to just 276 passing yards against Calgary last week. Here, we'll note that the Ti-Cats are a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off two losses in their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 11.1 points on average in that situation. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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08-20-22 | Hamilton v. Montreal OVER 48.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Montreal at 4 pm et on Saturday. I see this as another breakout spot for the Ti-Cats offense after scoring 34 points in a win over Toronto last week. The Alouettes are getting absolutely shredded by opposing ground attacks, allowing 138, 102, 152 and 118 rushing yards over their last four games. The Ti-Cats are more than capable of taking advantage as they've gained 100+ yards on the ground in three of their last four contests. While the Als are coming off a low-scoring overtime victory in Winnipeg last week, they generally don't shy away from high-scoring shootouts. Note that they've aired it out 31 or more times in three of their last four games while the Ti-Cats have yielded opponents' 37+ pass attempts in two of their last three games. Despite the low-scoring result last week, Montreal has seen four of its last six games total 55+ points. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-22 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton Elks +5.5 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
CFL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over Saskatchewan at 10 pm et on Saturday. This will be a rematch of a Week 1 clash between these two teams that saw Saskatchewan prevail by a 26-16 score. The Elks certainly weren't without their opportunities in that game as they were afforded 36 pass attempts in the loss. That's been a common theme for the Riders as they've struggled mightily to contain opposing passing games, yielding 33, 37, 38 and 33 pass attempts over their last four games with those four opponents completing 21, 26, 30 and 20 passes. Meanwhile, the Riders offense has seemingly gotten worse with each passing week, going from 24 to 21 to 17 points over their last three games. While on paper, the Elks defense should offer a reprieve, I'm not convinced it will play out that way on the field. It's worth noting that Edmonton is as healthy as any team in the league right now. The Elks are just one game removed from holding Winnipeg to just 274 total yards (including 7-of-16 passing). They'll be out for revenge here and it's worth noting that prior to that first meeting between the teams this season, last year's two matchups were settled by just two and five points. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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08-11-22 | Montreal v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
CFL Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met last week in Montreal, they combined to score 55 points in a 15-point Blue Bombers victory. Winnipeg has now scored 35 points in consecutive games but doesn't necessarily have the look of such an explosive offensive squad under the guidance of QB Zach Collaros. It has been the Bombers ground game that has exploded over the last two weeks but after running for their two highest yardage totals of the season, I look for a step back in that department here. We can't continue to project 150+ rushing yards when the Bombers are actually only running the ball around 20 times per game. Meanwhile, Winnipeg completed just 15-of-26 passes against the Alouettes last week and turned the football over four times. They'll be looking to clean things up here and I see this as more of a 'win and move on' type of contest for the Bombers. Montreal has tried to sling it all over the field over the last two games but it hasn't worked as it completed just 45-of-74 passes for 491 yards in those two contests, scoring a grand total of 37 points. Things obviously won't get any easier as the scene shifts to Winnipeg against the Bombers elite defense. Note that the 'under' is 19-4 with the Bombers playing at home off three consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 44.3 points. Take the under (10*). |
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07-21-22 | Montreal v. Ottawa UNDER 48 | Top | 40-33 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 54 m | Show |
East Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'under' in the Alouettes stunning loss to the Elks last week but won with the 'over' in the RedBlacks narrow defeat at the hands of the Tiger-Cats. Here, I won't hesitate to back the 'under' as these two struggling East Division squads do battle in Ottawa on Thursday. Montreal allowed an early touchdown five minutes into the game against Edmonton last week but didn't give up another until the final four minutes of the second quarter. From there, the Als built a 31-12 lead before letting their guard down and allowing three unanswered touchdowns from the final four minutes of the third quarter on. Needless to say, Montreal's focus this week will be on turning in a complete 60 minute effort on the defensive side of the football. Note that the Als have actually held their last two opponents to a combined 37-of-61 passing and only gave up 82 rush yards on 23 attempts against Edmonton last week. They've been fortunate to score as many points as they have this season, noting they've gone four games without rushing for more than 87 yards while completing 19 or less passes in four of five contests. Ottawa has scored 17 points or less in three of its first five games this season. Since throwing for 380 and 331 yards in their first two games, the RedBlacks have been held to 162, 268 and 203 passing yards over their last three contests. They've yet to rush for more than 94 yards in a game this season. With the 'over' cashing in each of the Als last three games and Ottawa coming off an 'over' result against Hamilton, we're being offered a generous total here, especially considering you would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a game totalled more than 43 points. Take the under (10*). |
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07-09-22 | Winnipeg +3.5 v. BC | Top | 43-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
CFL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Lions have arguably been the most impressive team in the CFL through the first month of the season, reeling off three straight wins while scoring a whopping 137 points. It's worth noting, however, that they've yet to play a team outside the East Division. There's no question, the West is best when it comes to the CFL - at least so far this season. The Lions should find that out on Saturday as they host 4-0 Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers are the two-time defending Grey Cup champions and look every bit the part of a championship contender again this year. Winnipeg is playing on a very short week here after dispatching the Argos by a score of 23-22 on Monday. I don't mind that though as I think it helps the Bombers stay focused on this business-like two-game road trip. The Lions were barely able to escape with a 34-31 win over the still-winless RedBlacks in Ottawa last week. We saw some regression from the B.C. defense in that game and now I think we see it from its offense as it takes on arguably the best defense in the CFL. This matchup was no contest last season as the Bombers swept the two-game series, including a 30-9 victory here in B.C. While the Lions are certainly a better team in 2022 I'm not convinced they've completely closed the gap. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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07-08-22 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan OVER 45 | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Saskatchewan at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in the RedBlacks wild 34-31 loss to the Lions last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Last year, the RedBlacks and Riders combined to score just 33 points in their lone meeting here in Regina. On paper, Ottawa is immensely improved offensively, even if it hasn't played out that way on the field through three games. The RedBlacks check in 0-3 on the campaign but certainly showed some signs of life in last week's narrow loss. The fact that they put up 31 points despite an off game from QB Jeremiah Masoli (14-of-27 passing) was encouraging. The concern here is that Ottawa is missing a number of key cogs in the defensive backfield, most notably Patrick Levels and Abdul Kanneh. After allowing B.C. QB Nathan Rourke to go off in last week's game (359 yards passing), it will be hard-pressed to bounce back playing on the road with an undermanned secondary. The RedBlacks aren't generating nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks (they had just one sack last week) which opens the door for Riders QB Cody Fajardo to pick them apart on Friday. Saskatchewan just hung 41 points on Montreal in what was a quick revenge spot after getting blown out by the Alouettes the week previous. I don't think we've seen the Riders best offensively but it's been encouraging to see RB Jamal Morrow go off for a pair of 100+ yard rushing games already this season, including 103 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries last week. Note that Ottawa has been among the worst in the CFL at stopping the run, giving up just shy of 4.6 yards per rush this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-24-22 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-26 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 56 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Blue Bombers have not surprisingly opened the season with consecutive low-scoring games against the Ottawa RedBlacks. I expect a different story to unfold this week, however, as they return home to host the winless Tiger-Cats. Hamilton jumped ahead 17-0 in the first quarter against Calgary in its home-opener last Saturday. Then we saw perhaps some complacency set in as the Ti-Cats allowed the Stampeders to get right back in the game and ultimately fell by a 33-30 score in overtime in the wildest game of the season to date. There were concerns entering the new season that the Ti-Cats defense might struggle with the new field layout and rule changes and that's been precisely the case through two games as they've allowed 30+ points against both Saskatchewan and Calgary. Things won't get any easier here as they face the two-time defending Grey Cup champion Blue Bombers on the road. Winnipeg hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard but it hasn't needed to. Game flow has dictated a pair of relatively low-scoring results against Ottawa - an opponent that's still finding its way with a new starting quarterback in former Ti-Cat Jeremiah Masoli. Hamilton looks a little more settled on offense with QB Dane Evans completing 60-of-86 passes for just shy of 800 yards through two games. We've already seen the Bombers show some vulnerability defending the pass, allowing Masoli and the RedBlacks to rack up 711 passing yards over the last two games against them. These two teams met twice last season and both games featured higher closing totals than we're dealing with this week. Note that the most recent matchup produced 58 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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06-18-22 | Calgary v. Hamilton UNDER 45.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Hamilton at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in much different results last week as the Stampeders prevailed in a high-scoring affair against the Alouettes while the Tiger-Cats ended up losing by 17 points in what was a very low-scoring game until the final few minutes when the Riders put two touchdowns on the board. Here, I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks. The Stampeders are still easing QB Bo Levi Mitchell back from injury and now he's dealing with a nagging foot ailment but will play on Saturday. Last week against what I would consider a middle-of-the-pack Als defense, Mitchell completed just 21-of-34 passes for 199 yards a touchdown and an interception. I'm not convinced the Stamps will be eager to throw him to the wolves against a terrific Ti-Cats defense on the road on Saturday. Hamilton will need to hang its hat on its defense - at least until it gets things figured out on offense. Dane Evans is supposed to take over the reins from Jeremiah Masoli at quarterback this season but he didn't look great last week, with Matt Shiltz entering the game for extended action. The Ti-Cats ground attack boasts some capable backs but no true workhorse or standout capable of churning out much-needed yardage in the three-down Canadian game. While I wasn't particularly high on the Stamps defense entering the season, I did like the way they shut down the Als in the second half last week, allowing just a single field goal. As I alluded to earlier, Hamilton didn't give up a touchdown until the final minutes of last week's 30-13 loss in Saskatchewan and we know how tough the Ti-Cats 'D' can be at Tim Hortons Field. As a final note, the Ti-Cats will be missing two key cogs on their offensive line due to injury this week, further hampering their offense. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-22 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg UNDER 48 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The CFL made a number of offseason rule changes in an effort to increase scoring after it was down across the league, particularly in the early stages of last season. Last night, we saw the season-opener between the Alouettes and Stampeders total 57 points. With that being said, that result had more to do with the early execution of the two offenses than it did any rule changes. Here, I look for a different story to unfold as the Redblacks challenge the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers in Winnipeg on Friday. Ottawa overhauled its roster in the offseason as wholesale changes were necessary following a dismal 2021 campaign - particularly on the offensive side of the football. In comes former Tiger-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli to run the offense, with plenty of other weapons added to the roster as well. One of those weapons will serve as the backfield leader in veteran RB William Powell. Unfortunately, he's injured and has been ruled out for Friday's game. I do think it will take some time for Masoli to mesh with his new receiving corps. This game serves as a 'baptism by fire' against perhaps the league's most dominant defense in Winnipeg. I don't expect the Redblacks to put too much on Masoli's plate here, even if they'd love to open things up right out of the gate. They can afford to stay somewhat conservative offensively because their defense has the chance to be terrific, with a number of new recruits on board. Keep in mind, the Redblacks defense was solid at times last season, it was simply on the field too much and injuries ultimately took their toll. I love the additions they made in the offseason with Patrick Levels and Money Hunter among those coming over from the Als in particular. Speaking of defense, the Blue Bombers are once again loaded in that department. That's certainly nothing new after they gave up a grand total of only 15 touchdowns all of last season. While the offense adds standout WR Greg Ellingson, it loses RB Andrew Harris. It remains to be seen whether RB Brady Oliveira can pick up the slack following Harris' departure - it will likely be more of a running back by committee situation in the early going. While the Bombers are favored heavily in this game, I do expect a hard-fought affair and believe the total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-21 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 45.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 4 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring overtime game between Saskatchewan and Calgary last week as the Riders advanced to the West Final with a 33-30 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold here as the defensive-minded Blue Bombers look to punch their ticket to a second straight Grey Cup. Riders road games have finished with totals of 42, 55, 40, 37, 33, 36 and 27 points this season. The lone outlier came in a contest against a bad Lions defense. In two previous meetings with the Bombers, the Riders only managed to score a grand total of 17 points. It's not surprising that we've seen the 'under' go 9-4-1 in the Bombers 14 games this season. After all, they completed fewer than 20 passes in all but three of those games while holding each of their final six opponents to 19 pass completions or less. RB Andrew Harris is still banged-up - just as he has been all season - but I would certainly expect him to be a workhorse again in this one, provided he's healthy enough to play. The Riders defense has been more of a 'bend but don't break' unit compared to the Blue Bombers shut-down defense. They do catch the Bombers offense having not played its starters in nearly a month (they had the benefit of rest after locking up the West Division title early). You would have to go back to September 2018 - nine meetings ago - to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 45 points. I'll stick with the trend here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Ottawa +14 v. Montreal | Top | 19-18 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We've cashed a number of tickets backing the RedBlacks this season, in spite of their awful overall record. This is another favorable spot to back Ottawa as it wraps up its season by making the short trip to Montreal to face the Alouettes. Note that while the RedBlacks haven't won a game since September 28th, during their current six-game slide they've lost only twice by more than 13 points. Here, they face an Als squad that is playoff-bound and not likely to move out of the third spot in the East Division with Hamilton hosting a Saskatchewan team that has nothing to play for locked into the second spot in the West Division on Saturday. Got all that? Montreal has some injury concerns to deal with here as well. Top wide receiver Eugene Lewis has been limited at practice all week so it remains to be seen how many snaps he'll see on Friday. Meanwhile, Ottawa has actually gotten healthier down the stretch, recently welcoming back one of its best defensive players in Praise Martin-Oguike. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Hamilton v. Toronto OVER 44 | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday night in Toronto. Hamilton's scores have quietly been creeping up as it has seen back-to-back and three of its last four games overall go 'over' the total. The Ti-Cats should be able to find plenty of offensive success in this one, especially when you consider the Argos will be without their defensive anchor in Charleston Hughes. The Argos defense has held up alright in the last two games but that was against two severely limited offenses in B.C. and Ottawa. Here, Toronto will be taking a step up in class against a Hamilton offense that has been led by a passing game that has completed 86 of its last 114 passes (75%) for right around 1,300 yards over the last four games alone. On the flip side, we have seen the Argos offense exceed expectations somewhat (at least my expectations) with QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson taking over the reins following Nick Arbuckle's departure. The Argos offense will get some help with the return of underrated RB D.J. Foster on Friday as well. Note that Toronto has put up at least 23 points in five of its last six games overall and has attempted 38 or more passes in each of its last four games. With the last two meetings in this series staying under the 50-point mark, there's reason to believe we'll see some positive regression to the mean here, noting that we haven't seen three straight matchups between these rivals stay under 50 since back in 2017. Take the over (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Toronto v. Ottawa +10.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Year. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up for the RedBlacks who understandably find themselves as double-digit underdogs at home against the Argos on Saturday. When these two teams last met on October 6th in Toronto the Argos rolled to a 35-16 victory. Keep in mind, 21 of Toronto's points came on special teams or defensive touchdowns. Ottawa actually led that contest at halftime. The RedBlacks did a pretty good job of keeping the Argos offense in check in that game and I'm confident they can do so again here. Simply put, I haven't been high on the Argos offense since they dealt QB Nick Arbuckle to move forward with McLeod Bethel-Thompson. Note that Bethel-Thompson has thrown for just six touchdowns compared to seven interceptions this season. Now the Argos are dealing with some key injuries as well, including one to RB D.J. Foster. We'll make this play on the assumption that he's good to go but it's worth noting nonetheless. The RedBlacks are starting to get healthier. While QB Caleb Evans has done as much as he can running the offense, getting back Dominique Davis wouldn't hurt and he's got some limited work in at practice this week and is eligible to come off the injured list for Saturday's game. WR and KR DeVonte Dedmon is expected to return after a full week of practice as well. Defensively, DL and key pass rusher Praise Martin-Oguike has returned to practice this week as well. It remains to be seen whether he can play this week but if he can that's an added bonus as well. Note that there are a couple of trends supporting Ottawa here as well. CFL home teams that have lost five or six of their last seven games ATS, and have a losing record are on a long-term 82-45 ATS run. Better still, home teams off 5+ consecutive losses in Weeks 10 through 15 are on a long-term 33-10 ATS run. Too many points here as the RedBlacks show some pride and hand Toronto its third straight ATS loss. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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10-29-21 | Calgary v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. While I'm not necessarily anticipating a shootout in this game, I do feel the total has been set far too low, largely due to the inept nature of the RedBlacks offense in recent weeks. There is reason for some optimism when it comes to the Ottawa offense entering this game, however. Calgary is coming off four straight division games, including three hard-fought battles against the Roughriders. The Stamps defense has certainly held up well but I do feel that this is a spot where we could see them suffer a letdown of sorts, noting that they've allowed at least 22 points in all three previous matchups against East Division opponents this season. Yes, Ottawa has been dreadful on offense in recent weeks but it did recently add former Pittsburgh Steelers QB Duck Hodges and he should push current starting QB Caleb Evans, who has shown some positive flashes, as we wind down the stretch this season. It's the defensive side of the football where I'm most concerned for the RedBlacks as they've been ravaged by injuries to a unit that wasn't all that great to begin with. They've been absolutely lit up in recent weeks, 'letting go of the rope' so to speak as they near the end of a trying season. Over the last two games, they've allowed 59 points while giving up 247 rushing yards and over 600 passing yards. The fact that they still allowed 27 points despite benefiting from three turnovers against Montreal two weeks ago was telling. While Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been turnover-prone, here he'll benefit from facing a RedBlacks secondary that is a shell of its former self due in large part to a cluster of injuries. Interestingly, Calgary has had a better scoring offense on the road than at home, averaging 25.2 points per game in enemy territory compared to its 22.1 ppg overall scoring average. As for Ottawa, it has been marginally better at putting points on the board at home, averaging 19.6 points per game compared to its 15.6 ppg season scoring average. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-21 | Ottawa +9.5 v. Montreal | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 1 pm et on Monday. Caleb Evans had his 'welcome to the CFL' moment in last Wednesday's 35-16 rout at the hands of the Argos. In fact he had two. Evans threw a pair of costly pick-sixes that turned that game from a competitive affair into a blowout. I'm still high on Evans and expect him to bounce back and take better care of the football in Monday's Canadian Thanksgiving showdown in Montreal. The RedBlacks fall into an excellent situation here as underdogs off a division loss have gone 67-32 when facing an opponent coming off an outright underdog win, as is the case with Montreal following its overtime victory in Hamilton last week. The Als crushed the RedBlacks the last time these two teams met back on September 3rd. Montreal gained 183 yards on the ground in that game but will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance without RB William Stanback on Monday (he's been ruled out due to injured ribs). QB Vernon Adams is playing through a nagging foot injury as well. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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10-08-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Elks got blasted against the RedBlacks of all teams last week but they'll aim to get back on track here with QB Trevor Harris returning to the field. The argument could be made that Edmonton essentially 'punted' that midweek game in Ottawa, knowing Harris would be back on the field for this division game against the Blue Bombers. Regardless, I do expect the Elks to show up with a much stronger effort here. Having Harris back should allow the offense to get back in rhythm and give the defense a break by staying on the field for extended stretches. With that being said, I'm not convinced we'll see the Elks bust out on the scoreboard against arguably the league's best defense in Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers are coming off three straight 30+ point performances but I wouldn't count on that continuing tonight. This is a team that's built on the strength of its defense. Prior to its most recent three-game stretch it had been held to 23 points or less in its first four games this season. I still see QB Zach Collaros as more of a 'game manager' than anything else at this stage of his career. He threw the football 34 times in last week's blowout win over the Lions but I'm not sure we'll see such an aggressive offensive gameplan against a tougher defensive opponent here. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 the last 20 times the Elks have allowed 34+ points in consecutive games, with that situation producing an average total of just 43.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 18-4 the last 22 times the Bombers have come off three or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, with that spot leading to a total of just 44.7 points on average. Take the under (10*). |
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10-02-21 | Montreal v. Hamilton OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
CFL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Hamilton at 4 pm et on Saturday. We've been playing mostly 'unders' when it comes to CFL totals lately, and rightfully so as the league has certainly taken a low-scoring turn this season. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over', however, as the desperate Als roll into Hamilton on the heels of consecutive losses. Montreal showed some positive signs in last week's 30-27 loss to the Argos. QB Vernon Adams Jr. completed 30-of-39 passes for nearly 400 yards through the air while RB William Stanback went off for 133 yards on the ground. I get the feeling we may see somewhat of a letdown from the Ti-Cats vaunted defense here after they held up so well, shouldering much of the load with QBs Dane Evans and Jeremiah Masoli sidelined. Masoli is back, along with WRs Bralon Addison and Brandon Banks and I can't help but feel we'll see the Hamilton defense breathe a sigh of relief and that perhaps opens the door for the Als offense in this spot. On the flip side, the Als defense hasn't been particularly good this season, especially against the pass. Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli probably could have returned for the team's most recent game as he had been practicing in the days leading up to this one. Now he's had ample time to get ready for the Als with the Ti-Cats having not played in a week-and-a-half. The most recent matchup between these two teams fizzled in the second half. In what I expect to be a more competitive affair on Saturday, I look for this one to find its way 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-17-21 | Calgary v. Hamilton OVER 43.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Hamilton at 7 pm et on Friday. The Ti-Cats are obviously in a tough spot here as they go with third-string QB David Watford with both Dane Evans and Jeremiah Masoli injured. They're also missing their top three wide receivers and likely their starting running back as well. It's going to be awfully tough to gameplan offensively for this one but with so many unknowns, I prefer to play the 'over' with the Stamps offense capable of doing much of the heavy lifting. Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell returned from a broken fibula to guide his team to a much-needed 32-16 win over the Elks last week. He wasn't quite as sharp as we're accustomed to seeing but with a game under his belt and another full week of practice I look for a big performance from Mitchell here. While the Stamps defense recorded seven sacks against statue-esque Elks QB Trevor Harris in last week's victory, they'll likely find it a little more difficult getting to Ti-Cats QB Watford, who has dual-threat capabilities. I expect the Ti-Cats to design plenty of plays that allow Watford to move around in the pocket and give his receivers time to get open down the field. With Hamilton likely to be playing in catch-up mode for much of this game, look for some soft coverage from the Stamps beatable secondary. It's worth noting that despite all of its injuries, Hamilton is still currently listed as a short favorite in this game. I believe the potential is there for the Ti-Cats to keep this one competitive and for that to happen, they're going to need to put some points on the board. We've seen a bit of a shift to higher-scoring results after 'unders' ruled the first month of the CFL season. Expect more of the same on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-06-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Calgary OVER 42.5 | Top | 32-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Calgary at 4:30 pm et on Monday. The fact that the Stampeders were involved in a low-scoring 18-16 setback against the Blue Bombers last week works out well for our purposes here as we're once again being afforded a low total to work with. The Elks of course had last week's game postponed as they had a number of players in Covid protocols. When we last saw Edmonton, it did show signs of life offensively with QB Trevor Harris completing 26-of-31 passes in a victory in B.C. The Elks have too much talent on offense to be held down for long and I expect them to come out with an aggressive offensive gameplan here in the Labor Day Classic in Calgary. The Stamps were written off by most with the injury to star QB Bo Levi Mitchell but Jake Maier has stepped in and performed admirably. Last week against arguably the league's best defense, on the road no less, Maier completed 30-of-39 passes for 307 yards. He hasn't shied away from taking chances down the field - it certainly helps that he has an excellent receiving corps to work with. The Elks defense hasn't really been tested all that much this season with their first three games coming against Ottawa, Montreal and B.C. - three teams that have been very inconsistent on offense so far this season. We don't need a shootout to cash this ticket but that type of contest is certainly well within the realm of possibility. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-21 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 51-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
CFL East Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. With both teams coming off dismal offensive performances last week I think most bettors will be looking to back the 'under' in this matchup of 1-2 teams on Friday night. I'll go the other way as I believe we're being afforded a very reasonable total in a game where we can expect to see some progression from both offenses. The Alouettes actually have one of the more aggressive downfield passing games in the league led by QB Vernon Adams Jr. They ran into a tough matchup last week with the Ti-Cats heading into Montreal sporting an 0-2 record. Hamilton is of course an elite team and played with a real edge, particularly on the defensive side of the football. While Ottawa has posted some excellent numbers defensively in the early going this season, we're not talking about an elite defense in my opinion. It's had more to do with game flow as a result of its own punchless offense as far as I'm concerned. Here, I do think we'll see the RedBlacks get a spark offensively with head coach Paul LaPolice hinting at backup QB Dominique Davis possibly being worked into the gameplan with Matt Nichols struggling. With the Ottawa ground game stalled and starter Timothy Flanders battling an injury we should see the RedBlacks air it out more often than usual in this one. Both teams are in desperate need of a victory off consecutive losses and with that in mind, I look for both offenses to take a few more chances than they otherwise would, leading to a higher-scoring game than most are anticipating. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met they combined to score a whopping 74 points back in 2019. Take the over (10*). |
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08-29-21 | Calgary v. Winnipeg OVER 44 | Top | 16-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Winnipeg at 7 pm et on Sunday. I think we can still 'buy low' when it comes to the Stampeders offense as most are still setting low expectations in the absence of star QB Bo Levi Mitchell. Backup Jake Maier stepped in and did an admirable job in a 28-22 win over the Alouettes last week. In general, the Stamps offense looked as good as it has all season, with RB Ka'Deem Carey rushing for two touchdowns and two wide receivers posting 100+ yard receiving days. While the Blue Bombers vaunted defensive front will pose a serious challenge, the Stamps offensive line has been exceeding expectations, ranking second in the league in fewest sacks allowed, and I expect it to hold up well here also. Note that the Bombers two top pass rushers, Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat continue to deal with nagging injuries. Both should play but they're still not at 100%. Meanwhile, the Bombers offense will get a major boost with the return of RB Andrew Harris. With their ground game struggling, his return should really open things up for QB Zach Collaros and the offense. The Stamps defense has faced a favorable early season schedule but has allowed six offensive touchdowns in three games. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Winnipeg v. Toronto OVER 43.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams in Winnipeg last week - that's been the norm in CFL action so far this season, largely due to the absence of a preseason. Here, with both teams having two games under their belts, I look for them to perform better offensively in what I believe will be a high-scoring contest in Toronto. The Argos are expected to turn to QB Nick Arbuckle under center. He was injured to start the season. I think the plan always was for him to take over the reins from McLeod Bethel-Thompson. After showing some life in Week 1, we saw very little from the Toronto offense last week. That obviously had a lot to do with the elite nature of the Blue Bombers defense but also spoke to Bethel-Thompson's ineffectiveness. RB John White could miss this game due to a hip injury but if he does, that should only force Toronto to draw up more passing plays for Arbuckle, which might not be a bad thing as White ended up banging his head against the wall all night against a stout Bombers defensive front last week. Winnipeg is expected to get some help offensively with the possible return of RB Andrew Harris and WR Darvin Adams. Regardless whether one or both of those star players return, we can expect further progression from the Bombers offense after QB Zach Collaros turned in his strongest performance of the season against the Argos last week. Toronto does have an improved defense but both Charleston Hughes and Henoc Muamba have missed practice time this week and are questionable to play on Saturday. I think it's only a matter of time before we see a breakout performance from the Winnipeg offense, and this could very well be the spot as it makes the necessary adjustments after seeing the Argos new-look defense for the first time last Friday. With this being the lowest total on the Week 2 board, we don't need an offensive shootout to cash this 'over' ticket. I have the Bombers approaching 30 points in this one while the Argos should be able to do enough to help the final score up and 'over' the very reasonable number. Take the over (10*). |
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08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks +4.5 v. BC | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over B.C. at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Elks are off to a very disappointing 0-2 start, especially considering their first two games were played at home, against seemingly inferior East Division opponents no less. Expect them to bounce back on Thursday as they hit the road for the first time this season and play their first division game. In Week 1, it was all about a lack of execution for Edmonton as it marched up and down the field but simply couldn't finish drives with touchdowns against the RedBlacks. Last week, the Elks were simply overmatched by an Alouettes squad that came out firing on all cylinders on both sides of the football, but particularly on defense as they were all over Elks QB Trevor Harris all night long. I think the case can certainly be made that the Elks overlooked the Als. They won't make the same mistake against the Lions, who are coming off an upset win on the road against the Stampeders. The news has now come out that Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell has a broken fibula and all indications are that he was playing hurt in last week's game against B.C. Credit for the Lions for coming up with the win, but let's not get too excited. They're still dealing with injury issues to starting QB Mike Reilly with reports from practice this week indicating that he is still having trouble pushing the football down the field. While he is expected to start on Thursday night you can take that news with a grain of salt as we've seen plenty of mystery around the QB position in B.C. already this season. While the Lions offensive line held up well last week, I still think it's an area of concern with big offseason acquisition Ryker Matthews sidelined due to a head injury. He isn't expected to be cleared to play this Thursday night. This one really comes down to whether we can trust the Elks offense. If Edmonton is going to turn things around, that's the area that needs to improve the most and I'm confident we'll see just that on the fast track at B.C. Place on Thursday. This is an ultra-talented group led by veteran QB Trevor Harris and WR Greg Ellingson. After being held to just one catch for one yard last week, I believe we can bank on a big bounce-back performance from Ellingson in particular. Harris was given no time to operate against the Als retooled pass rush but should find the going a little easier against the Lions this week. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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08-14-21 | Montreal v. Edmonton Elks OVER 46.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
CFL o/u Premier Play. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Edmonton at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've seen plenty of low-scoring games to open this CFL season - likely a product of their being no preseason this year. Here, I do think we'll see a little more offense as the Elks already have a game under their belts while the Als had an extra week of practice, and I expect them to be considerably stronger offensively than defensively once again. The Als certainly improved their pass rush in the offseason, with their big acquisition being former Elk Almondo Sewell. However, I do feel that Elks QB Trevor Harris should be able to get the ball out quickly enough to his talented group of wide receivers to find some offensive success in this one. There was plenty of rust last week as the Elks moved the football but couldn't finish drives with touchdowns. Against a weak Als secondary, there's reason to believe some of those field goal drives will turn into touchdowns here. The Als offense is virtually intact from 2019. There is top talent at all the skill positions, led by QB Vernon Adams Jr. and RB William Stanback. While the RedBlacks below average offense wasn't able to do much against Edmonton last week, I'm confident we'll see the Als open things up here. Keep in mind, when these two teams last met in the 2019 playoffs, we saw 66 total points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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08-05-21 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg UNDER 51.5 | Top | 6-19 | Win | 100 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The 2021 CFL opener features a rematch of the last CFL game that was played - the 2019 Grey Cup between the Blue Bombers and Tiger-Cats. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair than most as these two offenses take some time to settle into a groove after no preseason games and no real game action since that title showdown in 2019. The Blue Bombers return most of the key pieces from that Grey Cup winning squad. With that being said, they're the underdog for a reason in this one. RB Andrew Harris isn't expected to play on Thursday and while he is supported by a couple of capable backs, his absence certainly can't be overlooked. Keep in mind the Bombers are ushering in a new offensive era in some respects with former CFL quarterback Buck Pierce taking over the offensive coordinator reins from Paul LaPolice, who has moved on to Ottawa to take on a head coaching role. LaPolice squeezed every bit of potential he could out of this offense as the season went on in 2019. I simply question whether we'll see an explosive attack right out of the gates here in 2021 with what I would consider a less-than-imposing wide receiving corps at Collaros' disposal. Defensively, the Bombers are set up well with a cohesive unit that boasts plenty of returning starters keyed by Willie Jefferson - the league's reigning Most Outstanding Defensive Player. This is a group that enters the new season with a chip on its shoulder after some felt it 'fluked' its way to a Grey Cup championship. I'm not on board with that line of thinking - this defense absolutely terrorized Dane Evans in the 2019 Grey Cup, camping out in the backfield and will now face a Hamilton offensive line that no longer has Ryker Matthews protecting Jeremiah Masoli's blind side. With many of the Bombers defensive players training together in the offseason (a long one at that), this is a group that should hit the ground running on Thursday night. The Tiger-Cats need to restock the cupboard in some sense defensively but there's still plenty of talent to go around, and I don't think this is a bad opening night matchup for them to get their legs back under them. Simoni Lawrence is still on board to lead the defense - we're talking about perhaps the best-coached defense in the entire CFL so I certainly wouldn't expect it to lay an egg on Thursday. Offensively, there's not a true QB controversy in Hamilton but starter Jeremiah Masoli has to feel a bit of pressure as he opens the campaign with backup Dane Evans breathing down his neck. While the duo of Brandon Banks and Bralon Addison is electric, I expect the Blue Bombers to do what they can to take away the big hitters down the field and Hamilton won't shy away from pounding the football with newly-acquired feature back Don Jackson and Sean Thomas-Erlington back healthy. There's a lot of familiarity between these two teams with both rosters remaining relatively intact and with so much time to gameplan for the season-opener following no preseason games, I think we'll see a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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11-17-19 | Edmonton v. Hamilton UNDER 50.5 | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Hamilton at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both regular season meetings between these two teams went 'over' the posted total we're dealing with on Sunday and the Eskimos are coming off a wild, high-scoring 37-29 win over Montreal last week to earn a spot in this Grey Cup semi-final matchup. I'll gladly take the contrarian route, however, and call for a lower-scoring game than expected as the Eskimos and Tiger-Cats do battle on Sunday afternoon in Hamilton. Eskimos QB Trevor Harris has appeared in just two games since the first week of September but certainly looked to be in excellent form in last week's win over the Alouettes. He was afforded a clean pocket for much of the afternoon and took full advantage, completing 36-of-39 passes for 421 yards and a touchdown. The fact that he was only able to throw one touchdown was telling, however, as the Eskimos have struggled to finish drives with 7's on the board for much of the season. Here, look for Harris to be under duress all afternoon long as the Esks take a big step up in class against the Ti-Cats defense. Hamilton QB Dane Evans has done a tremendous job leading the offense since taking over the starting job for an injured Jeremiah Masoli, but I do wonder how he'll handle the big stage on Sunday. Note that the Eskimos defense will be getting their third look at Evans since September 20th. Take the under (10*). |
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08-25-19 | Montreal v. Toronto UNDER 55 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Toronto at 12 noon et on Sunday. I really like the way this total sets up as the Alouettes and Argos do battle in a neutral site game in Moncton, New Brunswick Canada on Sunday. The Als are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in Calgary last week, ultimately pulling out a 40-34 win in overtime. Keep in mind, Montreal didn't score a touchdown until the third quarter in that game and ultimately scored just two offensive touchdowns in regulation time. In its three previous games it had scored a grand total of just 57 points so this is by no means an offensive juggernaut. Likewise, the Argos failed to score a touchdown until the third quarter in last week's 41-26 loss to the Eskimos. We have seen some positive signs from the Toronto offense in recent weeks but I believe it will be in tough against a somewhat underrated Als defense that has held the opposition to just 26.5 points per game on 313 passing yards and 95 rushing yards per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Hamilton v. BC +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 85 h 20 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Hamilton at 10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Lions in the first matchup between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the scene shifts to Vancouver on Saturday night. There's no question the Lions have had this rematch circled after blowing a huge fourth quarter lead in that narrow 35-34 loss in Hamilton two weeks ago. The Lions were in a tough spot last week, playing on limited rest, and ultimately fell in blowout fashion, but not before putting up a fight for a half. B.C. gave up an early first quarter touchdown in that game but actually held the Bombers out of the end zone until late in the third quarter after that. Here, they'll face a Ti-Cats offense that is still without its best player in QB Jeremiah Masoli. Backup Dane Evans has done an admirable job filling in for Masoli, but has also been turnover prone, tossing four interceptions compared to five touchdowns. Hamilton has played it fairly close to the vest with Evans under center and that doesn't work particularly well here in a road favorite role traveling across the country off an easy win in Ottawa. Take B.C. (10*). |
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08-16-19 | Edmonton v. Toronto OVER 50.5 | Top | 41-26 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'over' the last time these two teams met back on July 25th but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in the rematch. Since posting that 26-0 win over the Argos, the Eskimos have struggled to put points on the board, scoring just 34 points in splitting games against the Stampeders and Redblacks. With that being said, they do continue to march the football up and down the field with QB Trevor Harris completing 62-of-82 passes for over 700 yards over the last two games alone. I'm confident the Eskimos can get their groove back offensively against a weak Argos defense here. On the flip side, we saw Toronto gain a ton of confidence in a come-from-behind 28-27 win over the Blue Bombers two weeks ago. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson broke loose in that game, throwing for 343 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 44 yards. There's no question the Eskimos are a formidable defensive opponent, but are they as good as they've been in the last three games, where they have given up just 36 points? I'm not so sure. Take the over (10*). |
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08-09-19 | Ottawa v. Edmonton -8.5 | Top | 12-16 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton minus the points over Ottawa at 10 pm et on Friday. Bettors will likely be hesitant to back the Eskimos here after they fell as a road favorite in Calgary last week, not to mention the Redblacks overtime victory in Montreal. With that being said, I see this as a smash spot for the Eskimos offense against a very beatable Redblacks defense. Edmonton QB Trevor Harris continues to light it up even if his offense has been somewhat snake-bitten as far as finding the end zone goes. Harris threw for 373 yards and two touchdowns in last week's narrow loss to the Stamps. The Redblacks didn't score an offensive touchdown until the third quarter against the Alouettes last week. They've had a tough time with consistency on offense due in large part to a depleted backfield that has seen a lot of moving parts. RB Mossis Madu remains sidelined. When these two teams squared off in Edmonton last year, the Eskimos pasted the Redblacks 34-16. Trevor Harris will certainly be highly-motivated to hand it to his former squad. The Eskimos are 3-4 ATS on the season but 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS at home, where they've won their last two games by a combined 65-23 score. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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08-01-19 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan UNDER 50.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 34 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Saskatchewan at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in Regina on Thursday night. The Riders have seen back-to-back games play 'over' the total, scoring 83 points themselves in the process. Keep in mind, those two contests came against the one-win Lions (their only victory came against winless Toronto). Here, the Riders face a much tougher challenge as they welcome the Ti-Cats. Hamilton absolutely manhandled a previously rolling Blue Bombers offense last week, holding them to only 15 points in a hard-fought victory. I don't envision much of a letdown here as Saskatchewan will certainly have the Ti-Cats attention off back-to-back strong offensive showings. Note that Hamilton lost QB Jeremiah Masoli to injury last week so it will be up to Dane Evans to steer the offense now. Playing on a short week I can't see Hamilton really opening up the playbook for Evans. The Riders defense hasn't been great by any means, but they do catch the Ti-Cats in a favorable spot after losing Masoli. Saskatchewan, of course, lost its starting QB Zach Collaros in the first game of the season and has been going with Cody Fajardo ever since. He has been good, but not great, throwing seven touchdowns compared to four interceptions. The Riders have faced a rather soft schedule with three of their first six games coming against the Argos and Lions. Take the under (10*). |
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07-27-19 | Saskatchewan v. BC +3.5 | Top | 45-18 | Loss | -114 | 97 h 59 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Year. My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday. Saskatchewan defeated B.C. just last week but that was a strange game as the Lions actually outgained the Riders in terms of total yardage and had a decisive edge in first downs as well. Save for a stinker against the Eskimos two weeks ago, Lions QB Mike Reilly has looked more and more comfortable running the offense, last week completing 31-of-40 passes for 346 yards while also running for 32 yards and a score. RB Brandon Rutley enjoyed a breakout performance of sorts against the Riders, running for 73 yards on 13 carries. While the Lions did give up a whopping 38 points in last week's loss, they actually held the Riders offense out of the end zone from just over midway through the first quarter until the final two minutes of the third quarter. Things came unglued in the fourth quarter but B.C. can hang its hat on the fact that it allowed Riders QB Cody Fajardo to complete only 17 passes and picked him off twice. Outside of that victory, Saskatchewan's only other win this season came against the lowly Argos, who are arguably worse than the Lions. B.C. has now outgained three of its last four opponents and I believe it's only a matter of time before it all comes together for this squad. While Saskatchewan has owned this series recently, it's been a long time since the Riders were last favored in a game played here in Vancouver. I simply feel the oddsmakers are undervaluing what will be a desperate Lions squad on Saturday. Take B.C. (10*). |
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07-25-19 | Toronto v. Edmonton OVER 52.5 | Top | 0-26 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Edmonton at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Eskimos 20-10 loss in Montreal last Saturday but I expect a different story to unfold as Edmonton returns home to host the winless Argos on Thursday night. Edmonton has been held out of the end zone in each of its two losses this season but that hasn't been for lack of trying. The Eskimos had plenty of opportunities to punch it in last week and even had a touchdown called back due to a holding penalty. QB Trevor Harris threw an uncharacteristic two interceptions in last week's loss but should bounce back against a weaker opponent here. Note that Harris threw for nearly 400 yards and a pair of touchdowns the last time he faced the Argos as a member of the Redblacks last season. He's had plenty of success against Toronto over the course of his career. On the flip side, the Argos came up short once again last week, falling by a 26-16 score in Calgary. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson did march the football up and down the field in that game, throwing for 343 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but also turned the football over a whopping four times. The Eskimos defense can get after opposing quarterbacks but certainly isn't the same type of ball-hawking unit as the Stamps possess. With RB James Wilder Jr. injured, Brandon Burks will take over backfield duties for Toronto and I do feel he's better-suited for the CFL game as a true scat back. We saw a pair of low-scoring games between these two squads last year but prior to that their last four meetings had reached 57 points or more. Expect a return to 'normal' in this series here. Take the over (10*). |
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07-20-19 | Edmonton v. Montreal UNDER 54.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Montreal at 4 pm et on Saturday. This is a bit of a tough spot for the Eskimos as they stay on the road for a third straight game and travel east to face the upstart Alouettes in Montreal. Having allowed 28 points or less in all four games so far this season, I do expect the Esks defense to hold up well. The Als are fresh off back-to-back breakout offensive performances, scoring exactly 36 points in wins over the Ti-Cats and Redblacks. I do think the Als offense caught both of those defenses flat-footed, but that isn't likely to be the case against a better defensive squad in the Eskimos here. Note that Edmonton held Mike Reilly and the B.C. Lions to only six points in last week's blowout victory. Much of the Montreal's offensive success has come on the legs of RB William Stanback. With that being said, Edmonton has done a tremendous job of keeping its opponent's top rushers at bay, holding John White (twice) and Andrew Harris under 50 yards on the ground in its last three contests. The Esks did allow Stanback to gain 76 rushing yards in their first meeting with the Als this season but that was on the strength of one 42-yard run. You can be sure they'll be keying on slowing down the Als lead back this week. Montreal is certainly familiar with Eskimos QB Trevor Harris from his days with the Redblacks. Note that the Als three games against Ottawa last year totaled just 46, 41 and 32 points. Montreal has certainly improved defensively as this season has gone on with a knack for turning the football over. With that in mind, we can expect Edmonton to employ a smart offensive gameplan with a focus on taking care of the football. The first matchup between these two teams totaled 57 points this season, but it's worth noting that game saw a wild 31-point fourth quarter. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around, and I'm not sure the shift is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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07-11-19 | Edmonton v. BC +3.5 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Edmonton at 10 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Lions in this one as they look to avenge a 39-23 loss suffered against the Eskimos earlier this season (we won with Edmonton in that game). We successfully faded the Lions last week as well, grabbing the points with the Argos in a game that went right down to the wire. It wasn't a stellar performance from B.C., but it did manage to string together a pair of second half touchdown drives and didn't allow an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the fourth quarter. Now the Lions return home for the first time since their season-opening loss to the still-undefeated Blue Bombers. I'm not sure the Eskimos bye week came at the best time as they were off their first loss of the season - a game in which they failed to score an offensive touchdown. Keep in mind, Edmonton hasn't won here in Vancouver since October of 2017, when it needed overtime to secure the victory. QB Mike Reilly is getting more comfortable in the Lions offense with each passing week. I like the Lions chances here. Take B.C. (10*). |
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07-05-19 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa OVER 53 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in Winnipeg last week as the Blue Bombers defeated the Eskimos. I won't hesitate to switch gears here as the Bombers play outside the West Division for the first time this season, traveling to Ottawa to face the upstart Redblacks. The Bombers are in midseason form offensively, having scored 61 points through their first two games with QB Matt Nichols throw for six touchdowns and just one interception. Last week against Edmonton they scored a pair of offensive touchdowns in both the first and third quarter. They did let the Eskimos back in the game in the fourth quarter but I look for them to do a better job of keeping their foot on the gas offensively on the road this week. The Winnipeg defense bent but didn't break against Edmonton, allowing a whopping seven field goals. It has actually allowed just one offensive touchdown through two games, but keep in mind, the Bombers season-opener came against a Lions offense that was still working out the kinks with new QB Mike Reilly. Ottawa has come storming out of the gates offensively this season, scoring 76 points in wins over Calgary and Saskatchewan. Unlike the Eskimos, who ran the football just four times on the Bombers last week, we can expect the Redblacks to pound the football with some success on Friday night. Dual-threat quarterbacks have long had success in this league and now it's Boston College alum Dominique Davis' turn. After a shaky debut that saw him throw four interceptions against Calgary, he bounced back to throw for 354 yards and three touchdowns (and no interceptions) last time out. I'm not sure the Bombers defense is as good as it has shown so far. The Redblacks won't shy away from a shootout here. Take the over (10*). |
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06-28-19 | Montreal v. Hamilton UNDER 58.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Coming off a 64-point explosion against the Argos last week, the Ti-Cats enter this game with some serious momentum. Keep in mind, that was a complete collapse from the Argos. In Hamilton's first game this season it scored just one offensive touchdown in a relatively low-scoring 23-17 win over Saskatchewan. We've only seen the Alouettes play one game - a 32-25 loss in Edmonton. In that game, Montreal scored a touchdown late in the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until the game was already out of hand in the fourth quarter. It wasn't a great defensive showing from the Als, but they did turn in a couple of solid stretches in the game, not allowing the Eskimos to score a touchdown until over midway through the second quarter and then giving up just a safety in the entire third quarter. I don't expect the Als offensive to thrive in this contest, noting that the Ti-Cats have allowed just three offensive touchdowns through their first two games. Take the under (10*). |
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06-21-19 | BC v. Edmonton -4 | Top | 23-39 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton minus the points over B.C. at 9 pm et on Friday. The Mike Reilly era in B.C. got off to a tough start last week as the Lions fell by a 33-23 score at home against the Blue Bombers (we won with Winnipeg in that game). While most expect the Lions to bounce back here with Reilly facing his former team, the line tells a different story with the Eskimos favored. I believe the oddsmakers have got it right as Edmonton looks to make it two in a row at home to open the season. I really think that the Eskimos are a bit of an overlooked commodity at this point. QB Trevor Harris always seems to carry a big chip on his shoulder and got his campaign off to a tremendous start last week, throwing for 447 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for the game-winning touchdown. Keep in mind, it wasn't until the third quarter that the Lions actually scored an offensive touchdown last week against Winnipeg. That proved to be their only offensive touchdown of the game. There are going to be some kinks to work out as Reilly learns the B.C. offense (he threw a pair of interceptions last week). The Eskimos gave up only one touchdown in the first three quarters of last week's game against the Alouettes. While they'll be facing a much tougher challenge here, I'm confident they'll be up for it. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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06-20-19 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa UNDER 45 | Top | 41-44 | Loss | -124 | 61 h 36 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Bettors are lining up to back the 'under' in the CFL Week 2 opener but that doesn't mean it's the wrong play. We won with the 'under' in the Roughriders season-opening loss in Hamilton and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play here. The Riders scored a touchdown just over three minutes into the game against the Ti-Cats last week, and added a rushing touchdown late in the first half. However, from there they could only muster a fourth quarter field goal and rouge, ultimately putting up just 17 points in the loss. Things don't figure to get much better as they stay on the road to face the Redblacks on Thursday. On a positive note, the Riders did hold a pretty good Ti-Cats offense to only one offensive touchdown in the loss (they also gave up a punt return TD). Ottawa was involved in a wild game in Calgary last week, putting up a whopping 32 points against a good Calgary defense. I expect the scoring to settle down here, however. Note that the Redblacks didn't find the end zone between 3:57 of the second quarter and 1:15 of the fourth quarter in that game. All of their touchdowns came by way of QB Dominique Davis runs. There's no question the Riders will look to take that away here. Despite allowing 28 points, the Redblacks actually limited the vaunted Stampeders offense to only one touchdown in the win. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-19 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton UNDER 49 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 70 h 59 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I absolutely love the way the total sets up in the opening game of the 2019 CFL season. The Roughriders welcome back oft-injured QB Zach Collaros but with a re-tooled running game and a banged-up receiving corps, I don't have high hopes for the Riders offense - at least not early in the season, and especially not against a solid Tiger-Cats defense that welcomes back plenty of talent. Saskatchewan's defense might have to carry the load early on this season and I believe this unit is being underrated. Don't sleep on the presence of NFL veteran punter, and Saskatchewan-native, Jon Ryan who is still capable of flipping the field. The Ti-Cats are brimming with talent on both sides of the football, with their offense gaining much of the attention. Don't count on them displaying mid-season form here in Week 1, however. QB Jeremiah Masoli turned in an up-and-down half of football in the Ti-Cats preseason finale against the Argos last week. The Hamilton secondary should be especially motivated for this one after a poor showing in that loss to Toronto. The Ti-Cats have the potential to have one of the best defenses in the CFL this season and I look for them to get off to a strong start with a favorable matchup here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-09-18 | Edmonton v. BC OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and B.C. at 10 pm et on Thursday. The last meeting between these two teams produced 63 points back on June 29th in Edmonton. I don't expect much different on Thursday as the Eskimos and Lions renew acquaintances in Vancouver. B.C. continues to struggle to find the win column but has covered the spread in three straight games and its offense has slowly been rounding back into form with QB Travis Lulay back in the fold. Note that the Lions have scored at least 22 points in nine straight meetings in this series, which is no small feat against an always solid Eskimos defense. Edmonton has absolutely torched the Lions defense, scoring at least 30 points in four straight meetings in the series. The Eskimos roll into this matchup having won three games in a row, scoring 70 points in their last two games. Take the over (10*). |
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07-20-18 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 53 | Top | 25-29 | Win | 100 | 47 h 13 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between B.C. and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. With both teams coming off relatively low-scoring affairs last week I absolutely love the way the 'over' sets up on Friday night. B.C. welcomed back QB Travis Lulay and eked out a 20-17 home victory over Winnipeg. That put an end to a string of back-to-back 'over' results for the Lions. Lulay certainly didn't hold anything back in his return, airing out 41 passes and throwing for 326 yards, one touchdown and one interception. A key here is the fact that the Lions will be without one of the league's best defenders in LB Solomon Elimimian. Ottawa put forth a dreadful offensive performance last week, scoring just three points in a rout at the hands of the Stampeders. Keep in mind, just two games back, the Redblacks scored 28 points against Montreal. Calgary has really been the only opponent to keep the Ottawa offense in check this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 2-0-1 in the last three meetings in this series with each of those games reaching at least 55 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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06-29-18 | BC v. Edmonton UNDER 55.5 | Top | 22-41 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between B.C. and Edmonton at 10 pm et on Friday. Edmonton has been involved in a couple of high-scoring affairs to open the season, splitting those two games. I look for the Eskimos defense to step up on Friday night, however, as they welcome the Lions to Commonwealth Stadium. There’s no question the Eskimos defense is better than it has shown in the early going this season. This looks like a fine ‘get right’ game at home against a Lions offense that the jury is still out on, having only played one game – a 22-10 victory over a bad Alouettes squad back in Week 1. On the flip side, I’m confident the Lions defense can hold its own against an Edmonton offense that has yet to find its groove. The Eskimos scored points in bunches against Winnipeg in a wild season-opener but stumbled last week. It’s hard to say which offense we see on Friday night, but I do feel we’re dealing with an inflated total based on the Eskimos high-scoring contests so far. Take the under (10*). |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan +2.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -106 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
CFL Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Saskatchewan plus the points over Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Riders are off to a perfect start this season, defending their home field in an impressive 27-19 win over Toronto last week. They'll hit the road to face another East Division opponent this week and I look for a similar result. Note that the Riders are now 10-5 SU over their last 15 games going back to last season. They have a pretty solid track record against the Redblacks, having won four of five meetings since the start of the 2016 season. They won both games in Ottawa last season by a combined 49-37 score and have reeled off three straight victories in the nation's capital. I simply feel that Saskatchewan has more upside in this early stage of the 2018 season. Take Saskatchewan (10*). |
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06-16-18 | Hamilton v. Calgary UNDER 55 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Calgary at 7 pm et on Saturday. The Stampeders are certainly familiar with this Ti-Cats offense run by QB Jeremiah Masoli. Last year, Calgary took both meetings by a combined 88-26 score. Masoli didn't throw a single touchdown while tossing a pair of interceptions in those two contests. Obviously, the Ti-Cats QB will be feeling some heat here with Johnny Manziel waiting in the wings. I'm not sure Manziel's presence on the bench is a good thing for this Ti-Cats offense. Calgary is of course one of the league's elite teams and a serious Grey Cup contender. However, it's the opening week of the season. I'm just not sure we'll see the Stamps come out all guns blazing in their opener. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-5-1 in the Stamps last 22 season-openers. Take the under (10*). |
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09-03-17 | Winnipeg +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 51 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over Saskatchewan at 4 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up for the red hot Blue Bombers. Winnipeg is now 7-2 SU and ATS on the season after outlasting Montreal in overtime last time out. We cashed with the Bombers in that game and I won't hesitate to go back to the well in this spot. Yes, Saskatchewan has turned its campaign around, securing back-to-back wins over the Lions and Eskimos in the last two weeks. But let's face it, Edmonton handed that game to the Riders last week. The Eskimos were simply a no-show after suffering their first loss of the season the previous week (against the Bombers). I expect the Riders to face much more resistance in this matchup, noting that the Bombers have come away victorious in their last two trips to Saskatchewan. In fact, the Bombers haven't lost to the Riders since September of 2015. I can't help but feel the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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08-25-17 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton OVER 53.5 | Top | 54-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Saskatchewan and Edmonton at 9:30 pm et on Friday. With Edmonton coming off its first loss of the season last week, I look for it to come out as the aggressor on Friday night as it welcomes the Riders to town. That should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair as the Riders have certainly shown they can put points on the board in a hurry with a pass-heavy offensive attack of late. Yes, Saskatchewan has struggled on the road this season, dropping double-digit decisions in Calgary and B.C. over its most recent stretch. However, the Riders are playing with some confidence after trouncing aforementioned B.C. last week and I think they may be catching the Eskimos at the right time. Edmonton wasn't going to keep up its undefeated season forever. After suffering its first loss I won't be surprised if we see it let down its guard a little in this spot, opening the door for the Riders offense. Defensively, I'm not sure Saskatchewan will have many answers for Eskimos QB Mike Reilly. Take the over (10*). |
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08-18-17 | Ottawa v. Hamilton +3.5 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
CFL East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Let's try this again. We missed the mark with the Ti-Cats last week as they simply couldn't hang with the Blue Bombers, but as we saw last night, Winnipeg is quickly becoming one of the league's elite teams. While the Redblacks are the defending Grey Cup champions, they're by no means an elite squad this season. Frustration continues to mount following a tough 27-20 home loss to the Eskimos last week and I'm not even sure that a date with the lowly Ti-Cats can help the Redblacks cause this week. At 1-6-1 on the campaign, there's little reason for Ottawa to be laying more than field goal (at the time of posting) on the road against anyone. Maybe the Redblacks right the ship, but I believe this is the spot where the Ti-Cats finally find the win column. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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08-17-17 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg +1 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
CFL West Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Winnipeg plus the points over Edmonton at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The Eskimos remain undefeated on the season but after watching them narrowly escape with a win in Ottawa last week, I'm not so sure they're playing their best football this season. Playing their second of back-to-back road games for the first time this season, I look for them to suffer their first defeat of the campaign in Winnipeg on Thursday night. The Blue Bombers are coming off a blowout win over a desperate Ti-Cats squad in Hamilton last week. They've now won three games in a row, scoring at least 33 points in each of their last five games. This is a team that is brimming with confidence and seems to be getting stronger with each passing week. The Eskimos may own the better overall record, but the Bombers have been the far better bet, going 5-2 ATS. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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08-12-17 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton +2.5 | Top | 39-12 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
CFL Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Hamilton plus the points over Winnipeg at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Winnipeg is coming off a thrilling 33-30 win in Ottawa last week but let's face it, that was no real accomplishment as the Redblacks have really struggled to close out games this season. The Bombers have now won back-to-back games, but I believe three wins in a row may be a bit of a stretch. The Ti-Cats have yet to record a victory this season but did bounce back nicely from a disastrous 60-1 loss to the Stampeders with a narrow 33-28 loss on the road against the undefeated Eskimos last week. That marked Hamilton's first ATS victory on the campaign. This will be the Ti-Cats first home game since July 20th and I'm confident they'll bring their best effort. While Winnipeg has won the last two games in this series I don't believe that is a sustainable trend. The Ti-Cats are desperate and they get their first win in this spot. Take Hamilton (10*). |
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08-03-17 | Calgary v. Toronto UNDER 54.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 47 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Toronto on Thursday night. This play is as much about the number we're working with than anything else. It's simply too high. The Stampeders ran roughshod over the Ti-Cats at home last week, scoring a whopping 60 points in an absolute rout. Don't count on them enjoying the same level of success against an Argos squad that will be eager to bounce back following a tough road loss in Saskatchewan last Saturday. Not sure the short turnaround helps either team's cause in this non-division matchup. Toronto scored 32 points in its season-opener against Hamilton. It hasn't eclipsed 27 points since. After a rough start defensively, the Stamps have allowed just 51 points over their last four games. Last week was the first time in four games Calgary scored more than 29 points. Take the under (10*). |
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07-27-17 | Montreal v. Winnipeg OVER 51 | Top | 40-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* CFL Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Winnipeg on Thursday night. The Alouettes were held to just 19 points in a narrow loss in Ottawa last week. That was a tough spot for the Als as they ran into a highly-motivated Redblacks squad that at the time remained winless on the young campaign. Montreal still did some good things offensively in that one, with Darian Durant completing 35-of-45 passes for well over 400 yards. Remember, just two weeks ago the Als put up 30 points in an impressive win over Calgary. We won with the Blue Bombers in a close loss in B.C. last Friday night. Winnipeg lit up the scoreboard in that one, scoring 42 points against a quality Lions defense. I'm confident Matt Nichols and co. will find continued success against an Als defense that has proved vulnerable at times this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-14-17 | Calgary v. Montreal OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Montreal at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Montreal on Friday night. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Als 23-16 loss to the Lions last week. I did see some positive signs from the Montreal offense in that game, however, it simply couldn't find the end zone. Expect QB Darian Durant to do a much better job of finishing drives this week. Calgary keeps rolling along, having scored 103 points over its first three contests. We saw a strong performance from the Stamps defense last week in Winnipeg but can they do it again in a second straight road game? I'm not so sure. We saw two extremely low-scoring games between these two teams last season, but we're working with a lower total as a result here. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-17 | Calgary v. Winnipeg OVER 58.5 | Top | 29-10 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Winnipeg on Friday night. We've won with the 'over' in each of Calgary's first two games. While we're dealing with a higher posted total this time around, I believe it's warranted. Note that the most recent meeting between the Stampeders and Blue Bombers totaled 70 points last September. Like the Stamps, the Bombers are off to a strong start to the campaign, fresh off a wild 43-40 overtime win in Saskatchewan last Saturday. Things will obviously get much tougher here, but in their home opener, I don't expect the Bombers to hold anything back. Winnipeg hasn't defeated Calgary in years. Look for it to throw everything it has at the Stamps on Friday night, leading to a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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07-01-17 | Winnipeg -1 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 43-40 | Win | 100 | 49 h 50 m | Show |
My selection is on Winnipeg minus the points over Saskatchewan at 9 pm et on Saturday. The Riders put forth a solid showing in their season debut last week, pushing the Alouettes to the limit in a game that came down to a last second missed field goal by Saskatchewan. Of course, the Riders have traditionally owned one of the strongest home field edges in the CFL and will open brand new Mosaic Field on Saturday night so emotions will be running high. With that being said, I believe things are going to get worse before they get better for the rebuilding Riders. While there is plenty of talent in place, I’m not sure they have the right mix and will suffer plenty of growing pains this season. The Blue Bombers will be eager to get started after sitting idle last week. With 10 of 12 starters on offense back in the fold, this group has the potential to put up some big numbers. There are some question marks on defense, but I’m not sure those issues will be brought to the forefront against the Riders on Saturday. While playing in Saskatchewan is always a challenge, the Bombers certainly won’t overlook the Riders in their season-opener. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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06-24-17 | Edmonton +4 v. BC | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 39 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Edmonton plus the points over B.C. at 10 pm et on Saturday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the visiting Eskimos on Saturday night. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth affair all the way, and simply don't feel that the Lions are deserving of a favorite price tag north of a field goal. The Eskimos are of course led by one of the most dynamic playmakers in the CFL in QB Mike Reilly. In a game that oddsmakers are tabbing as a high-scoring shootout, Reilly is a guy I want in my corner. Don't sleep on an Eskimos receiving corps that is among the deepest in the league. The Lions enjoyed a breakout campaign from QB Jonathan Jennings last season, moving veteran Travis Lulay into a backup role. I won't be surprised if Lulay is pressed back into action as the starter at some point this season, however. The Lions are good. I'm just not sure they're great. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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10-22-16 | Montreal +7 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Saskatchewan at 4 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Als on Saturday as they try to bounce back following consecutive blowout losses. Of course, the Riders are red hot right now, having won four games in a row. They're a perfect 7-0 ATS over their last seven games. Now things get serious as Saskatchewan continues to make a late push. I don't expect to see the Als roll over for the Riders here though. Note that the Als remain a solid 3-1 ATS over their last four contests. They scored just eight points in last week's loss in Calgary, but that was against the league's best team. Montreal actually crushed Saskatchewan 41-3 in the first meeting this season. The last time they met on this field, the Riders won by 12, but that was in an underdog role last season. This is a much different scenario as Saskatchewan comes in as a considerable favorite. Take Montreal (10*). |
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