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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-24-24 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams last night as the Mariners cruised to a 4-0 victory behind another strong pitching performance from Logan Gilbert. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday as Seattle sends Bryce Miller to the hill against veteran Jon Gray of Texas. Miller hasn't fared well in limited work against the Rangers, allowing their current hitters to collect 10 hits in 25 at-bats with five of those knocks going for extra bases and three for home runs. Not only that but Miller has recorded only a 3:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against them. The Mariners bullpen has been terrific but Miller is generally good for five or six innings and I expect the Rangers to get their opportunities against him. Jon Gray has held up reasonably well in the early going this season but I do think regression is on the way. Note that current Mariners hitters are just 14-for-88 against him but Mitch Haniger is 2-for-6 with a pair of home runs and Ty France and Julio Rodriguez have both gone deep against him as well. In fact, of the 10 Mariners hitters that have faced him all but two have collected at least a hit. Note that Gray has worked five innings or less in seven of his last nine starts so there's a good chance we'll see plenty of the Rangers bullpen. Texas relievers entered this series sporting a collective 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-24 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Luis Severino entered the season with rather low expectations as he made the move from the Bronx to Queens to join the Mets. However, the veteran right-hander had a terrific Spring and has picked up where he left off in the regular season, recording a serviceable 3.70 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. The Giants don't have a lot to go on against Severino as their current hitters are a combined 2-for-28 against him with a pair of singles. Behind Severino is a Mets bullpen that entered this series among the best in baseball, sporting a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Giants ace Logan Webb has been terrific in the early going this season, posting a 2.85 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings of work. Webb is capable of giving the Giants seven-plus quality innings on any given night and he draws a favorable matchup here as current Mets hitters are 13-for-73 against him with only four extra-base hits. Pete Alonso has homered off of Webb but is just 1-for-11 against him. The Giants bullpen hasn't been great this season but again that's not as much of a concern with Webb starting as they may only be asked to piece together an inning or two. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-24 | Kings v. Oilers UNDER 6 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10 pm et on Monday. When you think of the Edmonton Oilers, low-scoring games aren't necessarily the first thing that comes to mind. With that being said, the Oilers have recorded an 18-20-3 o/u record on home ice this season and the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in their last four meetings with the Kings. Los Angeles has posted a 13-26-2 o/u mark on the road this season with an average total of just 5.7 goals scored. Note that the 'under' is 61-50 in the Kings last 111 contests following an 'over' result including an 18-12 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 38-33 in Los Angeles' last 71 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored four goals or more, which is the situation here, including a 16-10 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 21-18 in Edmonton's last 39 games following a loss by three goals or more, as is the case here, including an 8-6 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-24 | Blue Jays v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 109 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This one sets up as a well-pitched affair between the Blue Jays and Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Monday. Yusei Kikuchi had an awful Spring for the Blue Jays but has had no such trouble in his first four regular season starts, recording a 2.24 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings of work. Current Royals hitters have combined to go 7-for-35 against him with just three extra-base hits. Bobby Witt Jr. is 0-for-4 against Kikuchi with a pair of strikeouts and one walk. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. Like Kikuchi, he struggled in the Spring but has pitched reasonably well in his first four regular season outings, logging a 4.06 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. Current Blue Jays hitters have gone a miserable 8-for-41 against Singer including just on extra-base hit (a home run by Daulton Varsho). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 0-for-7 in his career against Singer. Neither bullpen has been lights out this season but I do think both starters are capable of working relatively deep into this ball game. Of note, the two bullpens entered yesterday's action having combined to record 12 saves while blowing only three. Take the under (10*). |
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04-14-24 | Bucks v. Magic OVER 214.5 | Top | 88-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have been trending in the wrong direction defensively, allowing three straight and four of their last five opponents to connect on at least 42 field goals. They've also been playing faster down the stretch, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. The Bucks can seemingly bait any opponent into an up-tempo affair, noting that they've allowed 89 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games. Even without Giannis in the lineup, they've been clicking offensively, making good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight contests. The 'over' is 32-21 in the Bucks last 53 games following a road loss including a 10-8 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-39 in Orlando's last 88 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 13-7 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-13-24 | Rockies v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Rockies bats exploded in the series opener between these two teams last night. I expect the Blue Jays to return the favor against Colorado starter Dakota Hudson on Saturday but question whether Toronto's pitching staff can stem the tide with Yariel Rodriguez getting the call to make his big league debut. Rodriguez is a bit of a Wild Card having mostly excelled as a reliever in Japan. The Blue Jays are certainly believers in him after handing him a $32 million contract but it remains to be seen how he'll perform at the big league level. For now, I'm not anticipating him to work deep into this ball game, nor do I expect him to completely shut down the Rockies bats. Toronto's bullpen hasn't been good and there's no help coming at the moment. Given how I expect the Jays bats to perform in this game I don't think we'll need much from the Rockies to get this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-24 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We'll pick on the two starters in this divisional matchup as neither arm has the track record to shine in this particular spot. Dane Dunning can succeed at times for the Rangers but it's more a matter of holding the opposing bats at bay just enough for his team's offense to take care of the rest. Dunning isn't shutting many opponents down. It's a similar story for J.P. France. He has actually recorded a terrific 2.43 FIP through two outings this season but regression figures to be on his way, noting he has posted a lofty 1.50 WHIP. Off a 1-0 loss to the A's yesterday the Rangers bats figure to wake up and it's worth mentioning that they just faced France last week, plating three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. The damage could have been even worse as France yielded eight hits and two walks while striking out only four. Dunning fared slightly better against the Astros and has solid career numbers against them. Note the he's faced them just once in Houston and lasted only four innings after giving up four earned runs on seven hits. Take the over (10*). |
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04-11-24 | Capitals v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' lately but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Thursday in Buffalo. The Capitals currently hold down the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt but their hold is tenuous at best. They need to throw everything they have at the Sabres on Thursday. Buffalo comes off consecutive road losses in Detroit and Dallas in which it scored a grand total of three goals. A return home should help the Sabres cause as should facing the Caps noting that Washington is giving up an average of 3.3 goals per game on the road this season. Note that the 'over' is 14-10 in Washington's last 24 games following three straight 'under' results, as is the case here, including a 5-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo has seen the 'over' go 26-16 in its last 42 contests when coming off consecutive 'under' results, which is also the situation here, including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-10-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. As is the case with many teams on Wednesday, both the Timberwolves and Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot here. I think this sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between these Northwest Division rivals. Note that the Timberwolves have been the picture of consistency from a defensive standpoint this season. They're not getting run out of the gym by many opponents having held an incredible 17 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Over that stretch, only two opponents made good on more than 42. It's a similar story for the Nuggets but with even more dominance. They've limited seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. You would have to go back 15 games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 42. The 'under' is 13-10 in Minnesota's last 23 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here, including a 1-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-21 in the Nuggets last 15 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 9-4 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Suns last three games and I look for a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Phoenix has held six straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three in a row to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Suns connected on more than 44 field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. They've held four straight and six of their last seven foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 60-45 in the Clippers last 105 games with the total set in the 220's including a 19-12 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-57 in the Suns last 118 contests as a home favorite including an 18-16 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Purdue and Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. I'm not going to stand in the way of either team's 'under' streaks in this matchup. Purdue has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games while Connecticut rides a six-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Neither team plays all that fast. In fact, the Huskies sit 328th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Purdue checks in 211th. While both teams are ultra-efficient offensively, I generally feel this large stadium venues tend to put a ceiling on shooting abilities. The Huskies actually shot well in their matchup with Alabama on Saturday but Purdue is a considerably tougher defensive opponent. The Boilermakers are going to be up against it here trying to find open looks with UConn ranking fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). I think the Huskies can defend without fouling, something Purdue's previous opponents haven't been able to do effectively. Note that the 'under' is 16-15 in Purdue's last 31 netural court games and 18-12 in UConn's last 30 netural court affairs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-24 | Wolves v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair the last time they met but that was back in November. Phoenix is trending slower right now having gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight and eight of its last 10 games. The Suns have also played some defense lately, limiting seven of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Of course the Timberwolves have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season and they enter this contest having held 11 straight and 13 of their last 14 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Minnesota's offense exploded last time out but that was against a matador-like Raptors defense. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven straight contests. Note that the 'under' is 50-44 in Minnesota's last 94 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 15-5 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' holds a slight edge in all Suns home games recently, going 67-63 in their last 130 contests in the desert including a 19-18 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-24 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game in Atlanta on Friday. Tommy Henry will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. Even the most casual observer could see that there was trouble brewing for Henry last season. He had an awful Spring and followed it up with an ugly regular season debut last week. Now he draws an extremely difficult test in the Braves home opener on Friday. Spencer Strider was lights out in the Spring but his first regular season outing was about what we've come to expect from the Braves ace - plenty of strikeouts (eight) but also a couple of runs allowed. I do think the D'Backs bats can get to him here, even if he does end up hanging another crooked number of K's on the board. The potential for a 6-5 type of game is there in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Giants are coming off an exceptionally high-scoring series in San Diego. Meanwhile, the Dodgers saw plenty of runs in their home series against the Cardinals. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as these N.L. West rivals match up for the first time in 2024. Keaton Winn will take the ball for the visiting Giants. He's probably better than a back-of-the-rotation starter after an up-and-down 2023 campaign. Winn saw limited action in the Spring but did record a 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He's a ground ball pitcher with an effective splitter that should keep the Dodgers mighty bats guessing on Monday. Veteran James Paxton joins the Dodgers after spending last season with the Red Sox. He should benefit from moving over to the National League (and making most of his starts at Dodger Stadium) at this stage of his career. Paxton worked seven innings in the Spring, logging a 5.14 ERA but a solid 1.14 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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03-31-24 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 218 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Miami is coming off a stunning 142-point explosion against Portland last time out. Keep in mind, the Heat are just one game removed from a stretch that saw them score 92 points or fewer in three of five games. The Wizards continue to see wild swings offensively. They were held to only 87 points in an 'upset' loss at home against the Pistons last time out. They've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. However, on the flip side, Washington has held four of its last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Miami continues to play smothering defense (by today's NBA standards), limiting 10 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 39-35 in Miami's last 74 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent score 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 10-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-3 in the Heat's last 13 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 4-0 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is 12-8 in Washington's last 20 contests following consecutive home defeats including an 8-4 mark this season. Off an upset loss at home, the Wiz have seen the 'under' go 15-3 in their last 18 games including 3-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-27-24 | Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams found their way 'over' the total in the front half of this home-and-home set on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday in Charlotte. Note that the Cavaliers knocked down 46 field goals in that victory. They simply shot the lights out but were by no means volume-shooters, getting off just 86 field goal attempts. In fact, the Cavs have hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight and eight of their last nine games. They haven't connected on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games since a three-game streak from February 25th to 28th. The Hornets have been far worse offensively in recent weeks. They've made good on 38 or fewer field goals in five straight games. They've have a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting just 82, 79, 84 and 80 field goals over their last four games. While Charlotte is by no means an elite defensive team, it has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities, holding eight of its last 10 foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Cavs last 14 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including an 8-0 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-18 in the Cavs last 43 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, including an 8-6 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 22-11 in the Hornets last 33 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 14-5 mark this season. Finally, the 'under' is 29-20 in Charlotte's last 49 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent including an 11-8 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks OVER 232 | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks are well-positioned to go off offensively on Tuesday as they wrap up their three-game homestand against an injury-depleted Lakers squad. Milwaukee has connected on 51, 45, 43 and 49 field goals over its last four games. It has also been playing faster, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. That spells trouble for a matador-like Lakers defense that has allowed more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last eight games, yielding at least 96 field goal attempts in four straight games and 92 or more in 10 of its last 11 contests. I do think the Lakers offense can be brought along for the ride in this game so to speak. Keep in mind, the Bucks have a poor track record as home favorites, going 57-62 ATS in their last 119 games in that role including a 15-18 ATS record this season. Milwaukee has allowed three of its last four opponents to connect on at least 40 field goals. The 'over' is 54-33 in the Lakers last 87 contests as a road underdog including a 13-8 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-25 in the Bucks last 52 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 13-9 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 213.5 | Top | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a low-scoring victory in San Antonio on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to Denver to face the Nuggets on Monday. Note that Memphis has been trending toward higher-scoring affairs on its current road trip having hoisted up 92 and 96 field goal attempts in regulation time in two of three contests. Denver has actually proven vulnerable defensively, or at least more than usual, in recent contests allowing three of its last four foes to connect on at least 42 field goals. Speaking of vulnerability at the defensive end of the floor, Memphis has allowed 44 or more made field goals in regulation time in four of its last seven games. The Nuggets continue to thrive offensively having connected on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 16 games and 45 or more nine times over that stretch. Note that the 'over' is 37-33 in Memphis' last 70 games as a road underdog including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-6 in the Nuggets last 16 home games with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including a 3-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton UNDER 146 | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Creighton at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. Oregon's opening round victory over South Carolina didn't have much business getting 'over' the total or certainly not reaching 160 total points. The Ducks actually got off just 47 field goal attempts in that contest while holding South Carolina to 25-of-56 shooting. Oregon quite simply shot the lights out but I think it will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance against Creighton on Saturday. While the Blue Jays are known for their offensive prowess they can play some defense as well. Note that they check in ranked 26th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Both teams rank around the 200 mark in terms of adjusted tempo so neither team plays exceptionally fast. Note that the 'under' is 24-21 in Oregon's last 45 games following an ATS win including an 8-7 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-12 in Creighton's last 27 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-6 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-24 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 240 | Top | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers aren't the same team they were earlier in the season, playing at a slower pace and doing a much better job defensively. They check in with the 'under' having cashed in 11 of their last 14 games and we'll go that way again as they continue their road trip in San Francisco on Friday. Note that Indiana has held three straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only six of its last 17 opponents have managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. The Warriors have shot incredibly well over the last three games but are likely to face some resistance here. On the flip side, they've held five of their last six and 20 of their last 25 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 26-21 in the Pacers last 47 games as a road underdog of six points or less including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Warriors last 15 contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-24 | Akron v. Creighton UNDER 141.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Creighton at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. Creighton tends to carry a reputation as an up-tempo offensive team and bettors are generally quick to support the 'over' in games involving the Blue Jays, especially at this time of year. We've already seen this total get bet up a couple of points and I believe it will prove too high. Pittsburgh's PPG Paints Arena last hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action in 2022. The six games played in this venue totalled an average of only 124.2 total points with just one of those contests surpassing the total we're working with in this particular contest on Thursday. Akron will certainly have its work cut out for it on Thursday but it does likely come in with a gameplan in mind and that's slowing this game to a crawl. Note that the Zips rank 268th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. They're also inside the top-100 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Considering Akron boasts the 162nd ranked offense (in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency) it doesn't figure to be interested in giving Creighton (and its 12th-ranked offense) any more possessions than it has to. Of note, the Blue Jays actually rank just outside the top-200 in adjusted tempo so it's not as if they're playing at a frenetic pace this season. Yes, they've been ultra-efficient but I do think playing at a larger venue like the one in Pittsburgh serves as an equalizer in a sense. The 'under' is 21-17 in Akron's last 38 games with the total set in the 140's including a 12-5 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 27-13 in the Zips last 40 contests played on a neutral court as an underdog including a perfect 3-0 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-18 in Creighton's last 47 postseason tournament games including 16-9 in its last 25 NCAA Tournament contests. Take the under (10*). |
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03-20-24 | VCU v. Villanova UNDER 131 | Top | 70-61 | Push | 0 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between VCU and Villanova at 9 pm et on Wednesday. This game is flashing 'under' as two teams that are obviously disappointed to not be playing in the Big Dance match up in NIT action on Wednesday night in Villanova. VCU lost in a slugfest in the Atlantic-10 Championship against Duquesne. The Rams rank outside the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency and 302nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Where VCU shines of course is at the defensive end of the floor, sitting 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. This is a matchup it figures to handle against a Villanova offense that has disappointed, ranking 84th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 350th in adjusted tempo. Only 12 Division I teams have played at a slower pace this season. The Wildcats have been even better than the Rams defensively this season, ranking 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. While there's always the chance we see a late scoring flurry in a game in this pointspread range, I'm willing to take my chances with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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03-19-24 | Jets v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in six straight meetings in this series and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Winnipeg has scored six goals in consecutive games but those came against the Ducks and Blue Jackets - two of the league's worst defensive teams. Here, the Jets will run into a red hot Rangers squad that has allowed just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. Winnipeg road games have totalled an average of only 5.4 goals. Note that the 'under' is 12-9 in the Jets last 21 games following three straight 'over' results, as is the case here, including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 40-23 in Winnipeg's last 63 contests following consecutive wins including a 15-8 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-4 in the Rangers last 13 games following consecutive wins by three goals or more and 10-4 in their last 14 contests after scoring five goals or more in two straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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03-16-24 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 237 | Top | 128-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Steph Curry is expected to return for the Warriors on Saturday and they could use the offensive boost as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 11 games. They'll run into a Lakers team that has shown signs of life defensively recently, limiting three straight and four of their last five foes to 46 or fewer made field goals (that's actually progress given the way they had been playing). While the Lakers have been shooting well themselves, they're playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Meanwhile, Golden State has limited the opposition to 44 or fewer made field goals in six of its last eight games. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in Golden State's last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 6-3 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-17 in the Lakers last 37 contests played in the same situation including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-13-24 | Nets v. Magic UNDER 206 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This game pits two teams that have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately. The Nets have been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time they connected on more than 42 field goals. In fact, they've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in 14 of their last 17 games. They don't figure to get any sort of break here as the Magic, while struggling to find wins lately, have continued to play tough defense. Orlando checks in having held an incredible seven straight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 11 to 41 or fewer. The Magic have allowed more than 80 field goal attempts just twice in their last seven contests. On the flip side, Orlando has knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in 10 straight and 12 of its last 13 games overall. Last time out the Magic broke a streak of six straight games in which they had hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts. The 'under' is 66-45 in Brooklyn's last 111 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 21-12 record in that situation this season. The Nets have also seen the 'under' go 16-10 in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road win including a 3-1 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-5 in the Magic's last 14 contests with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points including a perfect 3-0 record this season. Finally, the 'under' is 44-35 in Orlando's last 79 games following consecutive losses including an 8-4 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-24 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 139.5 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and St. Mary's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry series going back to last year's WCC Tournament championship game. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. We know what St. Mary's approach to this game will be. The Gaels will look to slow the pace to a crawl, noting that they rank 358th (out of 362 Division I teams) in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. St. Mary's enters this contest having held 25 of its last 29 opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Gonzaga enters on an offensive tear but it's not as if the Bulldogs are really pushing the pace. They've gotten off 61 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games including 58 against St. Mary's on March 2nd. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 with Gonzaga coming off an 'over' result this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-4 in St. Mary's last 14 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 229 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive 'under' results but that's not of major concern noting they've had five previous 'under' streaks last longer. While Miami has dropped back-to-back games it remains in excellent form defensively. The Heat have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Miami isn't likely to push the pace, even against a matador-like Wizards defense. the Heat have hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 straight and 19 of their last 22 games. They've connected on more than 42 field goals just once in their last six contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-38 in Washington's last 83 games played with double-revenge including a 17-15 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-24 in Miami's last 51 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-08-24 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts UNDER 153.5 | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Friday. I think 'over' bettors may be trying to fit a square peg into a round hole in this particular matchup on Friday. While both teams have struggled defensively all season long, I'm not sure either team is capable of taking advantage offensively. South Dakota has drawn every bit of efficiency out of its offense down the stretch, connecting on 27 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games but it is playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games. It runs into an Oral Roberts squad that did play some of its best defensive basketball of the season down the stretch, limiting four of its last five foes to 26 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Golden Eagles allowed an opponent to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. In two regular season meetings we saw both teams hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts in both matchups yet those two games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is 26-20 in South Dakota's last 46 tournament games. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 43-32 in Oral Roberts last 75 tournament contests including a 6-2 mark over the last three seasons. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-13 ATS in the Golden Eagles last 41 games following an ATS loss, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-07-24 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 231.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games while the Mavericks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold as these non-conference foes match up on Thursday in Dallas. Miami has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 42 made field goals or less. In fact, the Heat have limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 successful field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Heat have connected on at least 46 field goals just twice since December 6th. They've gone eight straight games without hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. We know what the Mavs are all about and that's offense. With that said, they've made good on 45 of fewer field goals in three straight and five of their last seven contests. On the flip side, Dallas has struggled defensively this season. However, it has generally bounced back following exceptionally poor performances and that's the situation it is in on Thursday after allowing Indiana to make good on 50 field goals last time out. On five previous occasions this season, the Mavs have yielded at least 50 made field goals and in their next contest they've held the opposition to an average of just 43.6 with the 'under' going 3-2. Note that the 'under' is 30-21 in the Heat's last 51 road games with the total set at 220 points or higher and 19-14 in their last 33 contests following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 65-54 with the Mavs playing at home and 9-7 in their last 16 contests after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-24 | Boston College v. Miami-FL OVER 151.5 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Miami at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Miami has inexplicably been idle since a week ago Monday, when it dropped a 75-71 decision on the road against North Carolina - its seventh straight defeat. Boston College enters on the heels of four straight losses but it has been making 'over' bettors happy with each of its last six contests sailing 'over' the total. I look for more of the same on Wednesday. While the Miami offense has struggled lately, it does continue to push the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games. The Hurricanes rank 112th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom this season. Going up against Boston College's matador-like defense should serve Miami well in this spot. The Eagles have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 27 field goals. Boston College ranks 173rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, not good for a Power-5 program. On the flip side, the Eagles have been fairly consistent offensively, making good on 25 or more field goals in five of their last six games with a low-water mark of 24 made field goals over their last nine contests. Miami, like Boston College, has struggled defensively allowing its last four opponents to connect on 28, 28, 30 and 27 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 19-12 in Boston College's last 31 games as a road underdog and 16-6 in its last 22 contests when coming off a game that totalled 155 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-15 in Miami's last 42 games as a home favorite and 7-5 in its last 12 contests following a road loss in-conference. Take the over (10*). |
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03-04-24 | Blackhawks v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The most recent matchup between these two teams last week in Chicago fizzled as the Avalanche skated to an easy 5-0 victory. While most are expecting more of the same in this quick rematch, I expect the Blackhawks to put up more of a fight. That should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. While the Chicago offense has been putrid lately, it's worth noting that it's current streak of five straight games scoring two goals or less marks its longest such streak this season. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 2-0 the two previous times it has come off five straight games scoring two goals or less this season. Additionally, the 'over' is 11-8 in Chicago's last 19 games when seeking revenge for a shutout loss against an opponent. Meanwhile the Avs will be in a foul mood after dropping a 5-1 decision in Nashville on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is 17-10 in their last 27 contests after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. The 'over' is also 12-3 in their last 15 games following a road loss against a division opponent. The Blackhawks have been as generous as they come on the road this season, allowing a whopping 4.1 goals per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-02-24 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 228.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. |
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03-02-24 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blackhawks offense has been putrid lately, scoring a grand total of just five goals over its last four games. A home date with the Blue Jackets might be just what it needs to get kick-started though, noting that Columbus has allowed 3.8 goals per game on the road this season and four goals or more in 13 of its last 19 games overall. The Blue Jackets have produced only three goals over their last two contests but those came against two of the league's best teams in the Rangers and Hurricanes. Here, they'll face a Blackhawks squad that has allowed at least three goals in five straight and eight of its last nine games. Interestingly, Columbus has been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.0 goals per contest. This will be the second meeting between these two teams this season after Columbus skated to a lopsided 7-3 victory at home back in November. Note that the 'over' is 19-10 in the Blue Jackets last 29 games following consecutive losses by two goals or more against division opponents, as is the case here, including an 'over' result the only time that situation has presented itself over the last three seasons. Perhaps more notable, the 'over' is 50-29 in the Jackets last 79 contests following consecutive losses including a 15-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-1 in the Blackhawks last seven games following a shutout loss at home including a 1-0 record in that spot this season. The 'over' is also 6-3 in Chicago's last nine games following a loss by five goals or more including a 2-1 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-02-24 | NC State v. North Carolina OVER 153.5 | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina State and North Carolina at 4 pm et on Saturday. Including the first meeting this season we've now seen three straight matchups in this rivalry stay 'under' the total. Going back to the turn of the century we've seen a four-game 'under' streak in this series only once - that coming back in 2017. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair on Saturday. The Wolfpack were not playing well offensively the last time these two teams matched up. In fact, N.C. State was mired in a shooting slump that saw it connect on fewer than 20 field goals in two of three games. It's a much different story this time around. N.C. State has connected on 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. There's reason to believe the Wolfpack will be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this contest as North Carolina has allowed seven of its last eight foes to hoist up more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Wolfpack have been getting boat raced defensively in recent weeks. They've allowed 29, 27, 30, 25 and 37 made field goals over their last five contests. North Carolina checks in top-25 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 38th in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. Note that the 'over' is 6-1 in N.C. State's last seven games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 30-23 in the Wolfpack's last 53 contests following an ATS defeat. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 62-47 in North Carolina's last 109 games following a win by six points or less including a 5-3 record in that situation over the last three seasons. The 'over' is also 26-20 in the Tar Heels last 46 games following an ATS loss including a 6-4 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-01-24 | Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 137.5 | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Nevada at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Fresno State's most recent game went 'over' the total but that was only thanks to overtime. The Bulldogs haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' since a five-game streak from January 16th to 30th. Note that they held an up-tempo Utah State team to just 47 field goal attempts in regulation time last time out. In fact, they've limited three of their last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts. While the Aggies did get their fair share of opportunities at the free throw line in Wednesday's contest, Fresno State is actually allowing just 16 free throw attempts per game this season so it's not really a recurring theme. While the Bulldogs did get loose a bit offensively against Utah State, it faces a tougher challenge on Friday with Nevada ranked 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 245th in adjusted tempo this season (both according to KenPom). The Wolf Pack have held seven of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Fresno State has knocked down just 23 field goals per game on the road this season. As I mentioned, Nevada's preferred pace is slow, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since February 2nd against a matador-like defense in San Jose State. The 'under' is 10-8 in Fresno State's last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Nevada's last 41 contests following an 'over' result including a 7-3 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 50-39 in Nevada's last 89 games after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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02-28-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 235.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Opponents are walking all over the Lakers right now, getting off 93 or more field goal attempts in each of their last five and 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Clippers should be salivating at the opportunity for an offensive breakout here after being held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. Paul George won't be in the lineup for the Clips on Wednesday but I still expect them to thrive offensively against a Lakers squad that has been lit up for 44 or more made field goals in 12 of its last 15 games. On the flip side, the Lakers have connected on more than 40 field goals in eight straight games and 47 or more in five of those contests. The Clippers have surprisingly been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing four straight and 12 of their last 16 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a crisp 15-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 32-25 in the Clippers last 57 contests following an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-24 | Blues v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Edmonton at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Blues are reeling right now, losers of four of their last five games as they try to hang on in the Western Conference playoff race. They gave up three first period goals before settling down and eventually dropping a 4-2 decision in Winnipeg last night. Note that scoring has been a problem for the Blues on the road this season where they average just 2.6 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Oilers have been relatively stingy at home where they've held the opposition to just 2.9 goals per contest. Note that the 'under' is 21-18 in St. Louis' last 39 games following a loss against a division opponent including an incredible 9-2 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 15-13 with the Blues coming off consecutive losses by two goals or more, as is the case here, including a 6-1 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 24-15 in the Oilers last 39 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored five goals or more, which is the situation there after the Blues secured a 6-3 victory over them back on February 15th. That situation has cashed at a 9-5 clip this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-24 | Nevada v. Colorado State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and Colorado State at 11:30 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a considerably higher posted total the last time these two teams met on January 24th. That game ultimately stayed 'under' that number but did go higher than the total we're working with on Tuesday. I still don't feel the oddsmakers have made enough of an adjustment. Nevada saw its last game go 'over' the total thanks to an offensive outburst against a miserable San Jose State defense. Note that the Wolf Pack are locked-in defensively right now having held three straight and five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Colorado State doesn't figure to push the pace on Nevada, noting that the Rams rank 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Speaking of being locked-in defensively, the Rams have climbed into the top-25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) thanks to a stretch that has seen them limit seven straight foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. Nevada checks in just 241st in adjusted tempo and has hoisted up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight contests, reaching 52 or less in half of those games. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Nevada's last seven games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points including a 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 9-5 in the Wolf Pack's last 14 contests following a double-digit win over a conference foe including a 5-1 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-10 in Colorado State's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's, as is the case here at the time of writing. The Rams have also seen the 'under' go 14-5 in their last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more including a 5-2 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-24 | Blues v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Blues got drilled 6-1 by the Red Wings in Detroit on Saturday. They've had a couple of days off to lick their wounds and regroup and I look for them to come up with a much better defensive effort on Tuesday in Winnipeg. Note that the 'under' is 20-17 in St. Louis' last 37 games following a road loss by three goals or more including a 10-3 mark in that situation this season. Winnipeg secured a 4-3 overtime win over Arizona on Sunday. The 'under' is 12-6 in the Jets last 18 contests following an overtime victory including a 2-1 record in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 23-7 in Winnipeg's last 30 games after scoring three goals or more in five straight contests, as is the case here, including a perfect 6-0 mark in that situation over the last three seasons. While the 'over' did cash in the most recent matchup between these two teams, we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since April of 2019. Take the under (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Pistons v. Knicks UNDER 224 | Top | 111-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last five games while the Knicks ride a two-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Both teams are coming off losses on Saturday with Detroit falling on a last-second shot against Orlando and New York suffering a blowout loss at the hands of Boston. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Monday at the Garden. Detroit has shot about as well as you could expect in two games since the All-Star break, making good on 47 and 43 field goals in losses against the Pacers and Magic. It still scored 'only' 115 and 109 points in those two contests. Note that the Pistons haven't produced 109 or more points in three straight games since January 28th to February 2nd. On the flip side, Detroit has limited five straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Knicks don't figure to test that streak, noting that they've hoisted up just 84, 79 and 82 field goal attempts in their last three contests. In fact, they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 22 of their last 28 games. On the flip side, the Knicks have held an incredible eight straight opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. While the opposition has shot well against New York in recent weeks, I believe Detroit is better-suited for volume-shooting success but I don't see it accomplishing that against the slow-paced Knicks on Monday. Note that the 'under' is 26-20 in the Pistons last 46 games following five straight 'under' results and 10-7 in their last 17 contests after suffering a loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 40-24 in New York's last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results including a 14-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-22 in the Knicks last 47 contests following a double-digit loss including a 5-4 record in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Flames v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Oilers have dropped consecutive games following last night's 4-2 defeat at the hands of the Wild on home ice. I expect them to bounce back on Saturday but the rival Flames certainly won't make it easy for them. Calgary averages a respectable 3.2 goals per game on the road this season which is actually higher than its season scoring average at home. It's been feast-or-famine for the Flames offense lately as they've scored three goals or more in six of their last eight games but were shut out in the other two. I don't anticipate the Oilers shutting them down completely here (Edmonton has allowed three goals or more in nine straight contests). Note that the 'over' is 27-13 in the Flames last 40 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less, as is the case here, including a 7-3 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 9-6 in Calgary's last 15 games following an overtime win including a perfect 3-0 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 30-25 in the Oilers last 55 games following a loss by two goals or more including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 14-9 in their last 23 contests played on the second of back-to-back nights including a 2-1 record this season. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Grambling State v. Southern UNDER 133 | Top | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
SWAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Southern at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams met back on January 20th and combined to score 141 points in a double-digit Grambling victory. I expect a lower-scoring affair in Saturday's rematch. Note that Grambling has quietly held 11 of its last 13 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. The Tigers rank 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Southern has gotten off 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. The Jaguars have made good on 23 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, they've arguably been even better than the Tigers defensively in recent weeks. Southern has limited an incredible nine straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back 13 games to find the last time a Southern opponent hoisted up more than 53 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in Grambling's last 12 road games with the total set between 130 and 139.5 points including a perfect 4-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-10 in Southern's last 25 home games including a perfect 7-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-24 | Bucks v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is undoubtedly a game the Bucks have had circled on their calendar since getting throttled 129-105 on their home floor on February 8th. The Timberwolves shot the lights out in that game but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here. While the Bucks have struggled to find the win column lately, they've continued to do a good job of limiting opposing offenses, holding six of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Minnesota isn't a team that's going to push the pace on them, noting the T'Wolves have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 18 games. On the flip side, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that was as locked-in defensively as the T'Wolves prior to the All-Star break. They enter this game having limited four straight and an incredible 19 of their last 25 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In fact, Minnesota is allowing just 37 made field goals per contest at home this season. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series but we haven't seen three straight 'over' results since way back in 2006. The 'under' is 28-14 in Milwaukee's last 42 games as a road underdog and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-19 in the T'Wolves last 51 home contests with the total set between 220 and 229.5 and 7-3 in their last 10 games played on three or more days' rest. Take the under (10*). |
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02-22-24 | Washington State v. Arizona UNDER 151 | Top | 77-74 | Push | 0 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Arizona at 11 pm et on Thursday. Washington State has broken into the top-25 for the first time in an eternity and now it draws a difficult road test against a revenge-minded Arizona squad in Tucson on Thursday. The first meeting between these teams ended 73-70 in favor of the Cougars, cruising 'under' the total. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series. Washington State enters this game locked-in defensively having held four straight and five of its last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Note that it limited Arizona to just 25 made field goals despite yielding 72 field goal attempts back on January 13th. The Wildcats are on a tear offensively but they've also faced mostly up-tempo opponents over the last few weeks. Note that Washington State ranks 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will almost certainly look to slow this game down and effectively shorten proceedings as a double-digit underdog on Thursday. While Arizona is known for its offensive prowess, it can play some defense as well, checking in ranked 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Wildcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Washington State has made good on 25 or fewer field goals in three of its last four contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 41-19 with the Cougars coming off consecutive wins by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 18-12 in their last 30 games as an underdog including a 5-2 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-7 in Arizona's last 16 games following three straight 'over' results, including 2-0 in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-5 in the Wildcats last 15 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including 1-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-22-24 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 229.5 | Top | 105-127 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams went into the All-Star break off 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up for the fourth time this season on Thursday in New Orleans. Note that the three previous meetings in this series this season totalled just 205, 210 and 209 points. The Rockets had a recent stretch where they connected on 50 or more field goals in six of 11 games but have since cooled off, making good on 44 or fewer field goals in four straight contests prior to the break. Defensively, Houston has quietly been locked-in, limiting nine of its last 11 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While the Rockets have continued to give up their share of scoring opportunities, the Pelicans don't figure to push the pace, noting that New Orleans has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games. The Pelicans did make good on 50 field goals in their most recent game against the lowly Wizards but have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in 13 of their last 16 games overall. Like the Rockets, the Pelicans have been terrific defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of their last nine foes to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and a rock-steady 27 of their last 32 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 51-44 in the Rockets last 95 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent including a 10-4 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 60-40 in New Orleans' last 100 contests following an 'over' result including 19-6 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-21-24 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first matchup between these rivals was a high-scoring barn-burner with the Rebels prevailing 86-82 on their home floor back in late January. I expect a much different game to play out in Wednesday's rematch. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series. We haven't seen three straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2019-20 and prior to that 2005-06. Ole Miss snapped its three-game losing streak with a narrow win over Missouri last time out. You could see the Rebels shifting their focus to the defensive end of the floor as that losing skid grew. They enter this contest having held their last two opponents to just 54 and 49 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, Ole Miss ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels have played considerably faster from an offensive standpoint at home this season, averaging two fewer made field goals on two fewer field goal attempts compared to their season average on the road. Mississippi State has hoisted up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in four of those contests. Like the Rebels, the Bulldogs are showing signs of locking in defensively, limiting their last three foes to 57, 47 and 55 field goal attempts and holding three straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Ole Miss' last 12 games following a win in-conference and 41-33 in its last 74 contests after allowing 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-7 in Mississippi State's last 23 games following three straight victories. Take the under (10*). |
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02-21-24 | Arsenal v. FC Porto OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Porto and Arsenal at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of low-scoring contests in Champions League action yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold, at least in this match on Wednesday. Note that Arsenal has seen each of its last five contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Meanwhile, FC Porto has scored first in seven of its last nine matches (Arsenal has found the back of the net first in five straight contests). I'm confident that both sides will come into this round knowing that they'll need to push rather than sit back and defend. We're talking about two of the youngest teams remaining in the Champions League this year. Porto in particular can be exposed at the back end, particularly on the outside. It's a similar story for Arsenal even if the Gunners are a little stronger between the sticks with goalkeeper David Raya in fine form. I consider both sides to be underrated up front and I'm confident we'll see at least three total goals on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-18-24 | Canisius v. Siena OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. We've seen consecutive 'under' results in this series and that's notable as we haven't witnessed a streak of three straight meetings between these two teams going 'under' the total since an extended stretch of low-scoring matchups from 2005-08. Canisius can drag even the worst of opponents into a high-scoring affair, noting the Golden Griffins have allowed 28 or more made field goals in five straight games. They've also allowed eight of their last 11 opponents to get off at least 60 field goal attempts. In a similar vein, Siena has allowed six of its last 10 foes to hoist up at least 66 field goal attempts. Canisius is waiting for an opportunity to get out and run after getting bogged down in its last two games against Iona and Marist. Note that the Golden Griffins actually rank a respectable 130th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 130 total points but that game featured just eight combined made three-pointers. Note that these two teams average 13 combined made threes per game this season. The 'over' is 28-18 in Canisius' last 46 road games with the total set between 135 and 139.5, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 4-1 in Siena's last five contests as a home underdog of three points or less and 14-12 in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take the over (10*). |
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02-17-24 | Pacific v. Gonzaga UNDER 152.5 | Top | 76-102 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
WCC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pacific and Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Saturday. Pacific was far more competitive than expected in an 82-73 home loss against Gonzaga last month. While this game figures to be more lopsided, I also believe it will be lower-scoring. The Bulldogs used up a lot of what they had in the tank in Thursday's eventual rout of Loyola Marymount. That was a one-point game at halftime before Gonzaga poured it on in the second half. Note that the Bulldogs, while known for their offensive prowess, have also played some defense lately, holding nine straight opponents to 28 or fewer made field goals. Pacific doesn't figure to approach that number on Saturday, noting the Tigers have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine games. In fact, Pacific has gotten off 53 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. The 'over' has cashed in two straight meetings between these teams but we haven't seen three consecutive 'over' results in series history (going back 20 all-time meetings since 2012). Note that the 'under' is 20-16 in Pacific's last 36 games as a road underdog and 13-5 in its last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-4 in Gonzaga's last 15 games following a road win over a conference foe and 18-13 in its last 31 contests following an ATS victory as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-16-24 | Yale v. Pennsylvania OVER 137.5 | Top | 76-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Yale and Pennsylvania at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met on Yale's campus on February 3rd with the Bulldogs prevailing by a 74-58 score in a game that stayed 'under' the total. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair in Friday's rematch in Pennsylvania. Note that Penn connected on just 20 field goals in that previous matchup. The Quakers have proven to be a much better offensive team at home this season where they average 29 made field goals per contest. Yale has been fairly solid defensively but does check in having allowed 23 or more made field goals in six of its last eight games to at least leave the door cracked for the Penn offense, which is objectively better than its defense this season (the Quakers rank 154th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 264th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom). Note that Penn has connected on more than 20 field goals in 19 of 22 games this season so I'm willing to chalk up that ugly performance against Yale as an outlier. Defensively, the Quakers have allowed 10 of their last 12 opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals with half of those foes making good on at least 29. Yale enters this game on a serious tear offensively having connected on 33, 31, 34, 31, 27, 25, 28 and 28 field goals over its last eight contests. Note that the 'over' is 5-2 in the Bulldogs last seven games following three straight home wins and 12-7 in their last 19 contests played on five or six days' rest, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-29 in Penn's last 69 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored less than 60 points and 22-19 in its last 41 contests off an ATS win but SU loss. Take the over (10*). |
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02-14-24 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame UNDER 133 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Notre Dame is coming off a stunning 74-66 upset win over Virginia Tech on Saturday marking the first time it scored more than 61 points since a 75-68 victory at Georgia Tech on January 9th. I'm not convinced the Irish will enjoy similar offensive success here, noting they still rank 336th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and just inside the top-300 in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency. Prior to Saturday's contest Notre Dame had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in 10 straight games. Georgia Tech is by no means an elite defensive team but despite allowing six of its last 10 opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts it yielded 30 or more made field goals just once over that stretch. On the flip side, the Yellow Jackets have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven straight games. The Irish can play some defensive having limited eight straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. The first meeting between these two teams this season did reach 143 total points but both teams played at a faster pace than expected and shot better than their season average from beyond the arc in that contest. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 in Georgia Tech's last 17 games when seeking revenge for a loss where its opponent scored 75 points or more and 8-1 in its last nine contests following consecutive double-digit losses. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-21 in Notre Dame's last 46 home games and 9-3 in its last 12 contests following an upset victory. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-24 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 121-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. I think this game has the potential to have an 'old school' feel as the Timberwolves take the court for the first time since last Thursday while the Clippers wrap up a three-game homestand that has seen them go 0-2 ATS so far. Minnesota's most recent game found its way 'over' the total thanks to a lights out shooting performance in Milwaukee. The pace wasn't necessarily there as the T'Wolves hoisted up 87 field goal attempts in a 129-105 rout. Keep in mind, Minnesota has gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in 11 of its last 12 games and averages just 86 per game on the road this season. Also note that the T'Wolves have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Minnesota is locked-in defensively having held eight of its last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals in regulation time. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately. They've gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. You would have to go back six contests to find the last time they hoisted up more than 89 field goal attempts. They've been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of their last seven games. Los Angeles is coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against Detroit on Saturday. Note that the Clippers have allowed three of their last four foes to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. I do think the fact that Minnesota hasn't played since Thursday and that it plays at a relatively slow pace works in Los Angeles' favor here. Keep in mind, the Clips have limited the opposition to just 41 made field goals per game at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-3 in Minnesota's last nine games played on three or more days' rest and 24-21 in its last 45 contests following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-15 in Los Angeles' last 35 games following a victory by six points or less and 29-20 in its last 49 home games with the total set between 220 and 229.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 105 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. I had this total pegged at 45, maybe 45.5 if I'm being generous to the two offenses. Yet here we are, working with a total of 47.5 at the time of writing with the potential we see it bump up a half-point at some books in advance of Sunday's kickoff. We got the result we wanted in the late game on Conference Championship Sunday as the 49ers got shredded early before rallying for a wild 34-31 victory over the Lions (in which they would have covered the spread were it not for a late Lions touchdown). Note that the 'under' is 16-11 in San Francisco's last 27 games following an 'over' result and 6-3 in its last nine contests after giving up 30 points or more in its previous game, including a perfect 2-0 this season in that latter situation. There is reason to believe the Chiefs can move the football on this 49ers defense but I don't believe game script (this projects as a tightly-contested affair) will force Kansas City to play fast or bomb away. With that said, the Chiefs have attempted 30 or more passes 11 times going back to October 29th and didn't throw for 300 or more yards in any of those contests so even if they do throw the football more than we expect, it doesn't necessarily work against us. Andy Reid's team has evolved into one that relies heavily on its ground attack and short passing game to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten proceedings. That's precisely how they went into Baltimore and upset the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. I do suspect we'll see the 49ers continue to employ a run-funnel defensive gameplan in this contest in an effort to stamp out Kansas City's big-play potential through the air. The strength of this Niners defense is in the middle - a big reason it was so successful in keeping opposing tight ends under wraps all season long, and certainly in the playoffs. Kansas City TE Travis Kelce will draw plenty of prop bet money from recreational bettors leading up to Sunday's game and I don't think the sportsbooks mind that one bit. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense is elite. It presents challenges all over the field for the 49ers offense. While I'm higher than Niners QB Brock Purdy than some, he's going to have a difficult time trying to find his favorite target WR Brandon Aiyuk against the Chiefs lock-down corners. Meanwhile San Francisco TE George Kittle continues to deal with a nagging toe injury and might be best deployed as a decoy in this particular matchup. RB Christian McCaffrey will get his but he's essentially the only Niners skill position player that draws a favorable matchup here. There could be times where he's on an island trying to carry the Niners offense down the field. Again, any success McCaffrey has figures to keep the clock moving, effectively shortening this contest. The 'under' is 12-7 in the Chiefs last 19 games following a road win and a long-term 27-20 in their last 47 contests after an upset win away from home. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Kansas City's last five games following a bye week and 23-12 in its last 35 contests in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-24 | Bowling Green v. UL - Lafayette OVER 151 | Top | 60-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Louisiana-Lafayette at 3 pm et on Sunday. It's a rare non-conference matchup in February as Bowling Green travels to face Louisiana on Sunday afternoon. The Falcons have quietly reeled off 11 straight 'over' results. While getting out of the MAC for a game may serve as a 'catalyst for change' on most occasions, I'm not convinced that's the case here. Louisiana is coming off consecutive 'under' results but hasn't seen three straight games stay 'under' the total all season. The Ragin' Cajuns don't mind getting out and running and they'll certainly get their opportunity to do so here as the Falcons have allowed four of their last six opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Worse still, Bowling Green has allowed 11 of its last 14 foes to connect on at least 28 field goals. Louisiana has gotten bogged down at times against slow-paced Sun Belt Conference teams but still checks in having made good on 26 or more field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Of course we'll need Bowling Green to hold up its end of the bargain offensively to help this total along as well. The Falcons have hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 16 games. They enter on a tear having knocked down at least 29 field goals in three of their last four contests. Note that the 'over' is 24-11 in Bowling Green's last 35 games following a win. The 'over' is also 21-13 ATS in Louisiana's last 34 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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02-10-24 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma UNDER 139.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma at 7 pm et on Saturday. Oklahoma State enters this game off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold as the Cowboys travel to Stillwater for a showdown with the rival Sooners on Saturday. The Cowboys have been positively dreadful offensively for the most part over the last month or so, connecting on 22 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight games. They'll run into the 16th ranked defense in the country (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) according to KenPom on Saturday. The Sooners have limited three straight and five of their last seven foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. While Oklahoma's defense has been stout, it hasn't been quite as consistent offensively, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of its last eight contests. While the Oklahoma State defense is not elite by any means, I do think it is better than it has shown lately, most recently getting lit up by Houston in a 'wrong place at the wrong time situation' after the Cougars dropped a tough one on the road against Kansas three days earlier. The Cowboys have held 15 of 23 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Oklahoma State's last seven games as a double-digit road underdog and 18-16 in its last 34 games following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has seen the 'under' go 12-9 in its last 22 games as a double-digit home favorite and 14-12 in its last 26 contests following a double-digit home victory, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met back on January 10th in Atlanta and produced a total of 271 points (aided by an overtime period). I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair in Friday's rematch. The Hawks are on a scoring tear right now. They've connected on 51, 44, 53, 49, 55 (overtime game against Golden State), 51 and 43 field goals over their last seven contests. They've also hoisted up at least 93 field goal attempts in 10 straight games. The 76ers don't figure to stand in their way on Friday. Philadelphia has sagged defensively in the absence of Joel Embiid, allowing six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 42 field goals. On the flip side, I do think it's only a matter of time before the Sixers shots start falling. They've gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, making good on 47, 44, 40 and 41 over that stretch. The door is wide open for a breakout performance here, noting that Atlanta has allowed five straight and seven of its last eight opponents to connect on at least 47 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-18 in the Hawks last 40 games as a road favorite. The 'over' is also 16-11 in the Sixers last 27 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take the over (10*). |
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02-06-24 | Avalanche v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and New Jersey at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Avalanche were involved in a low-scoring affair in Manhattan last night but I look for a different story to unfold as they make the short trip to Newark to face the Devils on Tuesday. New Jersey checks in allowing 3.9 goals per game on home ice this season. The Devils are in need of help between the pipes noting they don't have a goaltender on their roster that has recorded a save percentage higher than .895 this season. I do expect New Jersey to hang tough here, however, noting that it comes off consecutive road losses prior to the All-Star break. The Devils certainly haven't forgotten a 6-3 loss they suffered in Colorado in the lone previous meeting between these teams this season. Note that the 'over' is 29-23 in the Devils last 52 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent. The Avalanche are likely to give backup goaltender Justus Annunen just his second start of the season after Alexandar Georgiev faced his former team last night. Annunen allowed four goals in a 7-4 victory in Ottawa in his lone previous start this season. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-24 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 235.5 | Top | 110-136 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Sacramento has posted consecutive 'over' results as it wraps up its long seven-game road trip on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Kings have been ultra-efficient offensively but it's not as if they've been playing at a break-neck pace. They check in having connected on 43 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. Here they'll run into a Cavaliers squad that is locked-in defensively and has been for weeks. Cleveland has held an incredible nine of its last 11 opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Cavs have certainly been good but aren't exactly blowing the doors off the opposition, making good on 46 or fewer field goals in 11 of their last 13 contests. The Kings, while not known for their defensive prowess, have been terrific at that end of the floor as well, limiting four of their last five foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 38-25 in the Kings last 63 games as a road underdog and 21-12 in their last 33 contests as a road underdog of six points or less. The 'under' is also a modest 26-24 in their last 50 games after consecutive 'over' results. Meanwhile, the Cavs have seen the 'under' go 12-6 in their last 18 contests with the total set at 230 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-12 in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-05-24 | Miami-FL v. Virginia UNDER 132 | Top | 38-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams have been on a bit of a tear (relatively speaking) offensively in recent weeks but I look for Monday's matchup to take on more of a defensive flavor. Miami delivered an 82-74 home win over Virginia Tech on Saturday. While the Hurricanes have connected on 24 or more field goals in eight straight games, they haven't knocked down 30 or more field goals since back on January 6th against Wake Forest. They obviously draw a tough challenge here as Virginia ranks 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Cavaliers have held six straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last seven foes to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, Virginia has made good on more than 27 field goals just once in its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is 12-6 in Miami's last 18 games as a road underdog and 11-7 in its last 18 games following a home win in-conference. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-6 in Virginia's last 17 games following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a perfect 7-0 in the Cavaliers last seven games following a win by three points or less in-conference. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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02-03-24 | California v. Arizona State OVER 144.5 | Top | 81-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between California and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. California ran into a buzz saw in Arizona on Thursday, dropping a 91-65 decision. That game still managed to stay 'under' the total - the Bears second straight 'under' result. Meanwhile, Arizona State checks in off a relatively low-scoring home defeat at the hands of Stanford on Thursday. The Sun Devils have struggled to find their shooting legs in recent games but should be afforded plenty of opportunities against a very forgiving Cal defense on Saturday. Note that the Bears have allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to knock down 25 or more field goals. They've also yielded 58 or more field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Cal has at least been consistent offensively, connecting on 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Saturday's action. The Sun Devils rank an impressive 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom but that's largely based on early season returns. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on 25 or more field goals. Note that the pace was there in the first meeting between these two teams this season (both hoisted up 60+ field goal attempts) but we saw just 48 combined made field goals in a game that cruised 'under' the total with 140 points. Note that the 'over' is 14-9 in Cal's last 23 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 13-11 in the Bears last 24 contests following a road loss. Arizona State has seen the 'over' go 6-4 in its last 10 games following a home loss in-conference and 7-4 in its last 11 home contests with the total set between 140 and 149.5 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-24 | San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 142 | Top | 60-90 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose State and Nevada at 11 pm et on Friday. San Jose State sits tied for last place in the Mountain West Conference with just one win in eight games this season. Meanwhile, Nevada is 3-4 and staring up at seven other teams in the conference. Needless to say, I don't expect either team to play lock-down defense on Friday night in Reno. Note that San Jose State is on an incredible run of defensive futility as it has allowed five straight opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field with its last four foes knocking down 33, 34, 30 and 30 field goals. Nevada should be in a foul mood after connecting on just 19 field goals in a blowout loss at New Mexico last time out. Note that the Wolf Pack had made good on 35 and 39 field goals in their two previous contests. They've gotten bogged down by the better teams they've faced in conference play but San Jose State certainly doesn't fall into that category. The question is whether the Spartans can produce enough offense to help this total along. I'm confident they can, noting they've actually been reasonably consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in 11 of their last 12 games. In fact, they rank a respectable 128th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season. San Jose state played quite slow early in the season but has picked up the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in six of its last 12 games. Note that the 'over' is 10-6 in the Spartans last 16 games as a double-digit road underdog and 8-3 in their last 11 contests following consecutive 'under' results. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 12-10 in Nevada's last 22 games following a loss in-conference and a long-term 21-8 in its last 29 contests after scoring 55 points or less in its previous game. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-24 | Clippers v. Pistons OVER 237.5 | Top | 136-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers may be known for their defensive prowess but it's been their offense that has paced them to 30+ wins this season. Los Angeles enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in eight of their last 11 games. The Clips are also playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing, hoisting up 95 or more field goal attempts in three of the first four games on their current road trip. They should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities on Friday as the Pistons have allowed 21 of their last 28 opponents to connect on at least 44 field goals. That's not to mention the fact that eight of their last 11 foes have gotten off 90+ field goal attempts. The question is whether Detroit can produce enough to help this total along. I believe it can. Note that the Pistons have made good on 43 or more field goals in eight of their last 10 games. They're catching the Clips at the right time as they've allowed six of their last seven foes to knock down at least 42 field goals and haven't exactly been smothering in nature, giving up 90+ field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. Note that the 'over' is 33-25 in the Clippers last 58 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 27-22 in Detroit's last 49 contests after posting consecutive ATS victories. Take the over (10*). |
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01-30-24 | Jazz v. Knicks UNDER 231.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and New York at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' is an incredible 13-2 in the Knicks last 15 games and I look for that trend to continue as they return home to host the Jazz on Tuesday. Utah got stomped by the Nets in Brooklyn last night. The Jazz are by no means playing good defensive basketball right now but I do think they get a bit of a reprieve in this back-to-back spot. Note that New York, while red hot off seven straight wins, has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in 16 of its last 18 games. It doesn't generally look to push the pace having hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 15 straight games entering Tuesday's contest. On the flip side, the Knicks are as locked-in defensively as any team right now having held nine straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Jazz's last 14 games following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 6-1 in Utah's last seven contests after consecutive games totalling 245 points or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-19 in the Knicks last 45 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 7-4 in their last 11 contests after a road win by 20 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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01-30-24 | South Carolina v. Tennessee UNDER 136.5 | Top | 63-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Tennessee at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. South Carolina enters this game having scored more than 70 points in three straight games - all victories in SEC play. It will be hard-pressed to reach that number on Tuesday, however, as it travels to Rocky Top to challenge Tennessee and it's elite defense. The Volunteers check in ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Gamecocks will need to effectively shorten this game by relying on their methodical pace, noting they rank 348th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). South Carolina can hold its own defensively as well as it has limited four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Gamecocks had a brief two-game outburst but that was against two poor SEC defenses in Arkansas and Kentucky. Last time out they knocked down just 23 field goals in a win over Missouri and they've been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in five of their last seven contests. I mentioned Tennessee's elite defense, it has held 12 straight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals and nine of its last 11 foes to 23 or less. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 in the Gamecocks last 12 games following three straight ATS victories, including 3-1 in that situation this season. The 'under' is 22-17 in the Vols last 39 games following an ATS loss and 6-3 in their last nine contests after posting three straight wins by double-digits, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Baltimore at 3 pm et on Sunday. While there are plenty of offensive stars on display in this matchup, headlined by the quarterback showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, I actually expect points to come at a premium on Sunday afternoon in Baltimore. I don't envision either team having a ton of success throwing the football. The Chiefs have done a tremendous job of containing mobile opposing quarterbacks over the years and job number one will be taking away Lamar Jackson's legs on Sunday. Of course Jackson is playing arguably the best football of his career right now so that's no easy task. I do think we'll see the Chiefs defense, which is relatively healthy considering the time of year, at least force the Ravens to go on long, methodical drives that may or may not end in 7's on the board. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense should feast on a Chiefs offense that has been gashed by injuries on the offensive line. Not only that but RB Isaiah Pacheco, who has been the team's unsung hero down the stretch, is playing on a bad toe and ankle. I would anticipate Kansas City using its short passing game and expect to see Patrick Mahomes flushed out of the pocket and forced to run the football on plenty of occasions on Sunday. Again, long, clock-eating drives could turn out to be the story of the game. Note that the 'under' is 8-1 in the Chiefs last nine games following a win by three points or less and 9-5 in their last 14 contests following four straight victories, as is the case here. The Ravens have seen the 'under' go 10-6 in their last 16 games following a home win and a long-term 30-21 in their last 51 contests after a victory by 21 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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01-28-24 | Marist v. Canisius UNDER 131.5 | Top | 80-71 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and Canisius at 1 pm et on Sunday. While Marist rides a three-game 'under' streak into this matchup on Sunday, Canisius snapped a two-game 'under' streak with an 'over' result on Friday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair between these two MAAC squads on Sunday afternoon. Marist has dropped the cash in six of its last seven games and that's been more to do with its punchless offense than anything else. The Red Foxes check in ranked 337th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 321st in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. They've been held to 25 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last eight contests. While Canisius is certainly no defensive juggernaut, it has held three straight and four of its last five opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. Marist actually sits just outside the top-100 (106th) in adjusted defensive efficiency. Red Foxes' opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down. Marist has limited five straight and nine of its last 10 foes to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Marist allowed more than 24 made field goals. In fact, it has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 24 or less made field goals. The Golden Griffins offense did get loose on Friday but that was against one of the worst defensive teams not just in the MAAC but in the entire country in Manhattan. Prior to that contest, Canisius had been held to 26 or fewer made field goals in four straight games. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 29-18 in Marist's last 47 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The 'under' is also 18-15 in Canisius' last 33 contests following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
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01-27-24 | Kentucky v. Arkansas OVER 164 | Top | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kentucky and Arkansas at 6 pm et on Saturday. Arkansas has fallen into a serious shooting slump, connecting on 24 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games entering Saturday's matchup with Kentucky. The good news is, the Wildcats are an NBA team disguised in college basketball uniforms and can drag any opponent into a track meet on any given day. Kentucky has allowed 33, 31, 31 and 29 made field goals over its last four games. The problem for the Razorbacks here isn't likely whether they can score on the Wildcats but whether they can stop them. Kentucky will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after dropping a 79-62 decision at South Carolina earlier this week. Note that the Wildcats have connected on 30 or more field goals in 14 of 18 games this season. It's worth noting that the Hogs had knocked down at least 26 field goals in 10 of their first 13 games before falling into their recent funk. The 'over' is 22-11 in Kentucky's last 33 games following an 'under' result, as is the case here. The Wildcats have also posted a perfect 9-0 'over' mark in their last nine games following a road loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 7-3 in the Razorbacks last 10 games following consecutive defeats in-conference. The 'over' is also 6-1 in their last seven contests following a loss by 15 points or more including 2-0 the last two times they've come off a 20+ point setback. Take the over (10*). |
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01-27-24 | Kansas State v. Houston UNDER 128.5 | Top | 52-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas State and Houston at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State was involved in a higher-scoring game than expected against Iowa State on Wednesday. It had little to do with the pace of that contest, however, as the Wildcats hoisted up only 49 field goal attempts while the Cyclones countered with 51. Both teams knocked down an identical 22 field goals. That's about par for the course when it comes to Kansas State. It has limited six of its last seven opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. While Houston boasts its share of offensive talent, the Cougars are still at team that hangs their hat on their defense. Houston checks in having held 18 of 19 opponents to 22 made field goals or fewer. In fact, the Cougars are just one game removed from limiting Central Florida to a ridiculous seven made field goals. Also note that Houston ranks 350th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The Cougars will take what the opposition gives them on offense but in this case that's not likely to be much against a Wildcats squad that is sure to be in a foul mood following Wednesday's loss. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 59-49 with Kansas State coming off a road loss against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-15 in the Cougars last 38 games following an 'over' result, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-25-24 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 224 | Top | 143-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off a string of relatively low-scoring contests. Boston enters riding a five-game 'under' streak while Miami has seen each of its last seven contests stay 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Heat continue to limit opposing offenses although part of that has been as a result of the opposition playing with a considerable lead and controlling the tempo. Boston has been fairly matchup-proof in that regard. The Celtics prefer to push the pace, having hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in 17 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, Boston's opponents have certainly gotten their fair share of scoring opportunities as the C's have allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 15 games. Only twice over the last three seasons has Boston produced five straight 'under' results and on both previous occasions, the 'over' cashed in the next game. Also note that the 'over' is 39-34 in the Celtics last 73 games following a road win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-32 in the Heat's last 72 contests when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 3-1 in Miami's last four games after four straight losses. Take the over (10*). |
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01-23-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 229.5 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Lebron James is expected to miss Tuesday's game for the Lakers as they try to secure a third straight win over the rival Clippers this season. While the Lakers have found recent success it hasn't been on the strength of their defensive play. They've allowed eight straight opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes connecting on at least 42 field goals. The Clippers figure to push them here, noting Los Angeles has knocked down 47 or more field goals in four of its last six contests. On the flip side, despite generally limiting the tempo of their opposition, the Clippers have allowed four of their last five opponents to make good on more than 40 field goals. This will undoubtedly be a game the Clips have circled on their calendar not only due to the fact that they've dropped both previous meetings this season but also after they felt they let the Lakers off the hook in the most recent matchup on January 7th. In that contest, the Clips hoisted up 91 field goal attempts but connected on only 36 of them. Incredibly, that's one of only two times they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in their last 25 contests. Take the over (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Lightning v. Red Wings OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. The Lightning are coming off a relatively low-scoring victory in Buffalo yesterday afternoon. I expect a much different story to unfold as they make the short trip to the Motor City to face the Red Wings on Sunday. Note that this will be the second matchup between these two teams this season with Detroit having skated to a 6-4 win on home ice back in October. The 'over' is 27-19 in Tampa Bay's last 46 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-25 in the Red Wings last 74 contests following a loss by two goals or more, as is the case here. The 'over' is also a long-term 52-37 with Detroit coming off an 'under' result, which is also the situation on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Heat v. Magic UNDER 215.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Orlando at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. If the Magic are going to shake out of their extended funk it's likely going to have to come on the strength of their defense. They've clearly lost their mojo offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. You would have to go back 14 games to find the last time they connected on more than 44 field goals. The good news is, Orlando continues to play tough defense having held seven straight opponents to 43 or fewer field goals. Miami is in a similar situation as it has connected on 41 or fewer field goals in an incredible 11 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. Also in a similar vein to the Magic, the Heat have held four of their last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 21-11 in Orlando's last 32 games following a double-digit home loss, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 11-4 in the Magic's last 15 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation against the Heat on Sunday. Miami has seen the 'under' go 6-2 in its last eight games following an upset loss against a divisional opponent. Take the under (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 49 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 3 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential. The same thing could have been said for the Lions matchup with the Rams last week but the scoring fizzled in the second half following a blazing hot start from the two offenses. Here, I expect both teams to score early and often. The Buccaneers draw a favorable matchup from an offensive standpoint but a tough one defensively. QB Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his NFL career right now and were it not for a couple of drops on potential big plays to veteran WR Mike Evans last Monday, Tampa Bay probably would have approached 40 points against what was once considered an elite Eagles defense. Here, the Bucs draw a Lions defense that can't stop the pass. Yes, Detroit has snuffed out opposing ground attacks but that's not really what Tampa Bay is all about right now. We've already seen the Bucs offense thrive in previous indoor games this season, scoring 20 points in Minnesota, 26 in New Orleans, 37 in Houston, 20 in Indianapolis and 29 in Atlanta. QB Jared Goff and the Lions explosive offense should continue to cook in this plus matchup on Sunday. The Bucs will do what they do defensively and that involves plenty of blitzing. Goff should eat them up with quick passes, noting that the Lions possess a rock solid offensive line and one of the best blocking running backs in football in David Montgomery. It's a pick your poison type of situation for the Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs will have to hope their offense can keep pace all afternoon long. Note that the 'over' is 7-2 in Tampa Bay's last nine road games as an underdog of seven points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'over' is certainly flashing for the Lions noting that the 'over' has gone a perfect 5-0 in their last five games following a win by three points or less, 19-11 in their last 30 contests played indoors and a long-term 122-103 when coming off an 'under' result. Take the over (10*). |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 43.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped considerably since opening in part due to weather concerns with cold temperatures and potentially gusting winds playing a factor. I'm not overly concerned. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a bit of a stinker as Baltimore rolled to a 25-9 victory. Needless to say, the Texans are a much different team now than they were then (that previous matchup came in Week 1). Rookie QB C.J. Stroud is the real deal. I like the way this Texans offense has evolved over the course of the season. As good as the Ravens defense is, it is by no means perfect. Baltimore has actually allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season. Going back to mid-October, the Ravens were torched for 120+ rushing yards in eight of their last 12 games. There's undoubtedly a path forward for the Texans offense here and I'm confident we'll see them play loose. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is defensive-minded without question but I like the way he let the offense cook down the stretch and certainly in last week's playoff opener against Cleveland. Note that Houston has scored 20+ points in nine of its last 11 games, only failing to reach that number in a game where Stroud suffered a concussion and then when he missed the next week. Of note, Baltimore will be without top CB Marlon Humphrey for this game, easing the matchup for Texans breakout WR Nico Collins as well. Enough about the Texans, let's talk about the Ravens electric offense. I don't think Houston is going to have many answers against a well-rested Baltimore offense. The Texans haven't performed particularly well against the pass, in fact they've been downright awful in that regard at times. They've also struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks on the ground, yielding seven rushing touchdowns over the course of the season. Everything is on the table for the Baltimore offense here and I don't expect it to take its foot off the gas pedal for one moment in this game. Note that the 'over' is 23-15 in the Texans last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent. When that previous blowout loss came on the road the 'over' has gone 15-7 in their last 22 contests. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-3 in the Ravens last nine games following a loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-19-24 | St. Peter's v. Fairfield UNDER 135.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and Fairfield at 7 pm et on Friday. Fairfield is riding a six-game 'over' streak entering Friday's matchup against St. Peter's. I believe that streak is in serious jeopardy here, however, as the Peacocks roll into town sporting a top-100 defense (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings) but an exceptionally slow (and reasonably weak) offense. Fairfield's defensive play has been subpar for most of the season but I question whether St. Peter's can take full advantage. The Peacocks did score 81 points in their most recent game but that was against a lifeless Manhattan squad. Note that St. Peter's has been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in seven of its last eight games. On the flip side, it has incredibly held all 14 opponents it has faced this season to 24 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 18-11 in the Peacocks last 29 games following an in-conference victory. The 'under' is also 13-8 in their last 21 contests following a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-4 in the Stags last 17 games following a double-digit win in an underdog role, as is the case here. When that win came on the road, the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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01-18-24 | Rangers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series, all the way to December of 2018 to find the last time we saw an 'over' result. I expect goals to come at a premium on Thursday as well. New York checks in off consecutive wins, rebounding from its recent four-game losing streak. Note that the Rangers have gone 13-9 on the road this season, where they've allowed just 2.8 goals per game. The 'under' is 32-26 in their last 58 contests following a win by three goals or more, as is the case here. While the Golden Knights have struggled to find the win column lately they have continued to play tough defensive hockey. Note that Vegas has held the opposition to just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. The Knights will need to continue to lean on that defense with a number of key contributors sidelined, including Jack Eichel. Note that the 'under' is 27-19 in Vegas' last 46 games following a home win in which it scored four goals or more. Take the under (10*). |
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01-17-24 | Canadiens v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Canadiens aren't rolling over for anyone right now, noting they've gone just 2-3 over their last five games but none of those losses came by more than a single goal. They should be feeling pretty good about themselves entering Wednesday's matchup in Newark as they're fresh off a 4-3 win over the Avalanche on Monday. The Devils will undoubtedly be in a foul mood following Monday's 3-0 shutout loss in Boston. Scoring hasn't really been an issue for the Devils lately, even without Jack Hughes among others. New Jersey had scored 21 goals over its previous five games prior to Monday's setback. The problem for the Devils here at home this season has been their inability to keep the puck out of their own net as they've allowed 3.7 goals per contest. Note that the 'over' is 13-8 in the Canadiens last 21 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-13 in the Devils last 34 contests following a road loss by three goals or more and 10-7 in their last 17 games following a loss of any sort. Take the over (10*). |
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01-16-24 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson OVER 150.5 | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Tech and Clemson at 9 pm et on Tuesday. This one sets up as a high-scoring affair between two struggling ACC squads on Tuesday. Georgia Tech has lost five straight games, going 1-4 ATS over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets do play an entertaining brand of basketball if nothing else having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last eight contests. The problem is they've operated a matador-like defense, allowing their four ACC foes to date to connect on 31, 35, 24 and 27 field goals. They were fortunate in the latter two games as both Notre Dame and Duke shot poorly but actually got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. In fact, four straight and 12 of Georgia Tech's last 15 opponents have hoisted up at least 60 field goal attempts. Clemson snapped a three-game losing streak with an 89-78 win over Boston College last time out. The Tigers have been outstanding offensively, knocking down 30 or more field goals in five of their last seven games. On the flip side, they've allowed three of their four ACC opponents to make good on 30 or more field goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-13 in the Yellow Jackets last 30 games following an in-conference loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 24-19 in Clemson's last 43 contests off an ATS victory. Take the over (10*). |
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01-16-24 | Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Kansas State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Kansas State faces a tall task as it looks to avoid a two-game skid when it hosts Baylor on Tuesday. The Bears have been ultra-efficient offensively this season, ranking fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom). I do question whether we'll see Baylor thrive in this particular matchup, however, noting that Kansas State has held four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and seven of its last nine foes to 23 or less. In fact, the Wildcats check in 31st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Neither team really pushes the pace with the Bears ranking 219th and the Wildcats' 267th in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in Baylor's last 14 games following a win by six points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-19 in Kansas State's last 46 contests off an ATS win but SU loss as an underdog. Take the under (10*). |
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01-13-24 | Avalanche v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. While I do think the Maple Leafs have the offense to keep pace with the Avalanche, I question whether their defense and goaltending can hang in this matchup. The Leafs let the Islanders off the hook two nights ago on Long Island and that's been a common theme this season. Toronto returns home on Saturday but has given up an average of 3.5 goals per game at Scotiabank Arena. The good news is, the Leafs have averaged 3.9 goals per contest at home. Colorado's offense has lagged at times this season, particularly on the road where it averages only 3.0 goals per game. It should be feeling pretty good about itself here, however, noting that it has scored 40 goals over its last 10 games. Note that the 'over' is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I think the Browns can score at will in this game as they look to continue their upward trajectory with veteran QB Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland was a run-first team earlier in the season, rushing the ball more than 30 times in eight of its first nine games. It was a much different story down the stretch, however, as the Browns ran the football at least 30 times just once in their final eight contests. They'll undoubtedly deploy a similar strategy here as the Texans simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the pass. On the flip side, I don't think we can rule out the Texans staying competitive in this game. When they faced the Browns on Christmas Eve they scored 22 points despite accomplishing very little with Case Keenum and Davis Mills running the offense. The Browns defense simply hasn't travelled well this season, allowing at least 22 points in all eight road games with the 'over' cashing at a perfect 8-0 clip. Note that the 'over' is 29-15 in the Texans last 44 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. I also strongly believe this game has the potential for 'splash' plays from the two defenses, potentially leading to points on the board. Flacco has admittedly been turnover-prone. C.J. Stroud, while the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year, will be up against a ball-hawking Browns secondary that looks like it will have the services of CB Denzel Ward after he tweaked his knee at practice earlier this week. Take the over (10*). |
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01-12-24 | Quinnipiac v. Marist UNDER 139.5 | Top | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Marist at 7 pm et on Friday. This game features a contrast in styles as Quinnipiac ranks 30th in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Marist checks in 303rd in that same category. It won't be easy for the Bobcats to bait the Red Foxes into an up-and-down affair here, however, noting that Marist has hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts just twice this season. Meanwhile, the Red Foxes have held the opposition to just 17, 21, 16 and 19 made field goals in their four home games this season. I do think Marist can control the tempo here as a short home favorite. Note that the Red Foxes are coming off three straight losses while Quinnipiac made the most of its two MAAC home games last weekend, going 2-0. While the Bobcats have proven rather vulnerable defensively this season, they should benefit from facing Marist here. The Red Foxes have knocked down more than 23 field goals just twice in their last seven contests. The 'under' is 16-10 in the Bobcats last 26 games following consecutive wins. The 'under' is also 9-3 in the Red Foxes last 12 contests following consecutive ATS defeats. Finally, the 'under' is 62-46 in Marist's last 108 games after giving up 80 points or more in its previous contest. Take the under (10*). |
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01-10-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 233.5 | Top | 141-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors were embarrassed on their home floor against the Raptors on Sunday, allowing 133 points as they suffered their fifth loss in their last seven games. I expect them to tighten the screws against a familiar opponent on Wednesday as they host the red hot Pelicans. Note that Golden State has held New Orleans to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven of eight meetings going back to the start of the 21-22 season. The Pelicans are quietly as locked-in as it gets defensively right now. They've allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 straight games. They've also held seven of their last 10 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Warriors have been a mixed bag offensively and check in averaging just 41-of-90 shooting at home this season. While the 'over' did cash in the first meeting between these two teams this season, we haven't seen consecutive matchups go 'over' the total since the 2018-19 season. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-24 | Raptors v. Lakers OVER 233.5 | Top | 131-132 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. While few are paying much attention, the Raptors have gone on an offensive tear lately, knocking down 44 or more field goals in six of their last eight games with the 'over' cashing at a 6-2 clip over that stretch. The Lakers were fortunate to catch the Clippers on an off shooting night on Sunday as they allowed 91 field goal attempts but the Clips could only make good on 36 of them. While the Lakers have generally been able to slow down the opposition this season, we've seen a bit of a sputter lately as two of their last three foes have hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts. The Raptors don't always play fast but they're definitely making the most of their scoring opportunities right now and I like the rhythm they're in having played every second night going back to December 30th. On the flip side, you would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Toronto held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. Of their last 10 opponents, seven have knocked down at least 43 field goals. Their last two foes have reached the 100 mark in terms of field goal attempts. For the Lakers, this will be their fourth straight home game and I expect them to come out with plenty of energy following an off day on Monday. While Sunday's game against the Clippers did stay 'under' the total, the Lakers haven't produced consecutive 'under' results since a four-game streak from December 2nd to 9th. Take the over (10*). |
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01-09-24 | Houston v. Iowa State UNDER 131.5 | Top | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Iowa State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Iowa State has been able to force the issue offensively this season to generally positive results. It ranks 88th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Cyclones figure to face a stiff challenge here, however, as they host undefeated Houston. The Cougars sit 325th in the nation in adjusted tempo and no team ranks higher in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. In fact, only one of Houston's 14 opponents this season has managed to knock down 20 or more field goals. As I mentioned, Iowa State has shown out offensively at times but when stepping up in class (in games where the pointspread has closed at six points or less) it has been held to 62 points against Virginia Tech, 69 points against Texas A&M and most recently 63 points against Oklahoma this past Saturday. For Houston, this will be just its second true road game this season. In the Cougars lone previous road tilt they scored just 66 points in a six-point victory at Xavier. Note that the 'under' is 22-12 in the Cougars last 34 games following a double-digit home win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 22-13 in Iowa State's last 35 contests following an ATS loss and 14-8 in its last 22 games after a loss against an conference opponent. Take the under (10*). |
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01-07-24 | Canisius v. Rider OVER 147 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Rider at 2 pm et on Sunday. While a track meet between two struggling MAAC squads is probably the last thing on the mind of most bettors on a busy Sunday of sports action, I think we have an excellent spot to play the 'over' in this matchup. The Golden Griffins opposition has been stuffing the boxscore lately, knocking down 33, 31, 28 and 30 field goals in their last four games and Rider figures to take full advantage. The Broncs have lost three games in a row and are desperate for their first victory in conference play following another loss - by an 88-84 score - on the road against Quinnipiac on Friday. Like Canisius, Rider has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 28, 29, 27, 30 and 30 made field goals in its last five contests. Both teams are capable offensively. Rider knocked down 33 field goals in Friday's defeat while Canisius had an off shooting night but still got off a whopping 68 field goal attempts. The last time these two teams met last February they combined to score 159 points. Note that the 'over' is 17-6 in Rider's last 23 home games following three straight losses. The 'over' is also a long-term 116-84 with Canisius playing in a road underdog role. Take the over (10*). |
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01-07-24 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 46 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings defense held up better than most expected over the course of the season with Brian Flores' blitz-happy packages stemming the tide for much of the campaign. That hasn't been the case over the last three games, however. It seems that the book may be out on this incarnation of the Purple People Eaters. Minnesota has been smacked for 27, 30 and 33 points over its last three contests. The Vikes three opponents over that stretch - Cincinnati, Detroit and Green Bay - posted respective passing lines of 29-42-298, 30-40-246 and 25-34-193. According to head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions will play their starters on Sunday, despite being locked into the third spot in the NFC. Regardless who takes the field, I expect them to find success against the Vikes sagging defense. On the flip side, Minnesota will be going for it with a slim chance of reaching the postseason despite its embarrassing home loss against the Packers in primetime last Sunday. Teams haven't even bothered running against the Lions lately and the Vikings don't figure to stray from that strategy (they've run the football just 27 times over their last two games). More passing equates to more clock stoppages. I don't envision Minnesota possessing the football for long stretches on Sunday but I do think it can punch through with some big plays against this struggling Lions secondary. Take the over (10*). |
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01-06-24 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 34.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This is obviously a must-win game for the Steelers and they'll also need help in the form of a Dolphins win over the Bills tomorrow night to clinch a playoff spot. While Baltimore will be resting its starters, I'm not convinced it will simply roll over in this divisional revenge game after dropping a 17-10 decision in Pittsburgh earlier this season. While the Ravens won't play the majority of their starters you can be sure they would still like nothing more than to end the Steelers season here. I do think it's in both teams best interest to effectively shorten this game. For the Steelers, they'll be looking to take the crowd out of the game and make this one as boring as possible in my opinion. The last thing they want to do is awaken the sleeping giant in this case. QB Mason Rudolph has been ultra-efficient through his first two starts but regardless who he is facing on the Ravens defense on Saturday, they'll be scheming up to stop him. Note that Baltimore has forced a whopping 10 turnovers over its last three games. For the Ravens, they simply want to get through this game unscathed. Backup QB Lamar Huntley has only appeared in mop-up duty so far this season. Last year, the final scores in his five games of extended action totalled just 19, 30, 16, 26 and 29 points. While the 'over' has cashed in each of Pittsburgh's last four games, the 'under' is a long-term 149-114 when it plays away from home. The 'under' is also 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 games following a victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-22 in the Ravens last 66 contests after scoring 25 or more points in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-03-24 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 223.5 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This will be the fourth meeting already this season between these two teams and we're inexplicably working with the highest total of the bunch. It is worth noting the 'over' has cashed in all three previous matchups this season. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. The Timberwolves were already one of the slowest paced teams in the league this season but they've taken it to another level lately, hoisting up an unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 76 field goal attempts or fewer in each of their last four games. They've also held four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Pelicans have gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven games. On the flip side they've held the opposition to just 35, 39, 36, 39 and 35 made field goals over their last five contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 45-28 with the Pelicans checking in as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 35-21 in the Timberwolves last 56 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-23 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 42 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Saints have defied expectations from a totals perspective, at least on the road in recent weeks as the 'over' has gone 3-1 in their last four games played away from home. This is another promising spot for the Saints offense on the road against what has turned out to be a very beatable Buccaneers defense. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay offense has thrived with Baker Mayfield at the helm. With the Saints missing CB Marshon Lattimore once again, it's all systems go for the Bucs offense again. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series. We haven't seen four straight 'unders' between these two teams previously since 2014-16. In their next matchup on that occasion they combined to score 55 points. The 'over' is a long-term 63-54 with the Saints coming off a road loss, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 46-40 in Tampa Bay's last 86 games following an upset win. Take the over (10*). |
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12-29-23 | Washington v. Colorado OVER 155 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. You would have to go back to January of 2021 to find the last time these two teams eclipsed the total we're working with on Friday night. I think that changes here. Washington doesn't figure to pose much of a defensive threat against the high-flying Buffaloes. The Huskies have allowed opponents to hoist up an average of 64 field goal attempts per game this season with that number rising to 67 on the road. There is reason to believe Washington can keep pace to a certain extent. The Huskies didn't turn in their best performance last time out against Eastern Washington but still scored 73 points on just 23 made field goals. They're averaging 30 made field goals per contest this season. Colorado plays at a faster tempo at home, where it has yielded an average of 61 field goal attempts per game to the opposition this season. Both teams rank inside the top-90 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Take the over (10*). |
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12-28-23 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 228.5 | Top | 114-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat saw their most recent game on Christmas Night sneak 'over' the total as they outlasted the 76ers on their home floor. Note that Miami has still held nine of its last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back five games to find the last time the Heat connected on more than 41 field goals. The 'under' is 17-6 in the Warriors last 23 home games when playing on two of more days' rest, as is the case here. They covered but lost 120-114 in Denver on Christmas. Golden State has held seven of its last eight opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals and its last two foes to just 38 and 40 made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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12-27-23 | Suns v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 129-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets were involved in a relatively high-scoring game last night but what else would you expect against the Pacers. Houston ended up hoisting up an uncharacteristic 97 field goal attempts in that game, largely due to the fact it was playing from behind much of the way. I expect a different game script to unfold against the struggling Suns on Wednesday. While Phoenix has had a tough time winning games it has continued to limit its opponents' opportunities, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five of its last six and nine of its last 14 games. On the flip side, the Suns have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in 14 of their last 15 contests. Houston limited Indiana to only 82 field goal attempts last night but the Pacers quite simply shot the lights out, as it often does. The Rockets have been incredibly stingy at home this season, holding the opposition to an average of just 36-of-86 shooting from the field. Houston has seen the 'under' cash in 17 of its last 23 games as a home underdog of six points or less. Take the under (10*). |
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12-27-23 | Penguins v. Islanders UNDER 6 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off wild, high-scoring 5-4 affairs with the Penguins losing in Ottawa and the Islanders winning in Carolina. Keep in mind, the Pens are just one game removed from a 2-1 win over the Hurricanes and the Isles just lost 3-2 in Washington two games back. Note that the 'under' is 32-12 in Pittsburgh's last 44 road games after giving up four goals or more in its previous contest. Similarly, the 'under' is 11-3 in the Isles last 14 home games after allowing four goals or more in their previous game. We haven't seen the 'under' cash in any of the last six matchups in this series. That marks the longest 'over' streak in this series since 2003-04. Take the under (10*). |
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12-25-23 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Heat's four-game 'over' streak came to an end last time out against Atlanta while Philadelphia enters Monday's contest riding a two-game 'over' streak. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most in this Christmas Night matchup. Note that the 76ers remain an elite defensive team. They've held eight straight and 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals - that's an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. Miami can also hold its own defensively having allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in four straight and eight of its last nine games. Add in the fact that the Heat have been scuffing their heels offensively, knocking down just 41, 40 and 40 field goals over their last three contests but check into this one in a near pk'em range and you can understand why I'm favoring the 'under' in Miami on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
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12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears OVER 43 | Top | 16-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Chicago at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. On a surprisingly pleasant Christmas Eve in Chicago weather-wise, we'll call for plenty of points in this NFC matchup. The Cardinals dropped a 45-29 decision at home against the 49ers last week and draw a similar matchup against an improved Bears defense here. With that said, Arizona has scored 24 or more points in consecutive games and it positioned quite well to thrive with the Kyle Murray-to-Trey McBride connection working wonders for the offense. Chicago has the potential to light it up as well as it looks to bounce back following last week's blown opportunity in Cleveland. The Bears didn't keep their foot on the gas against the Browns and ultimately let Cleveland off the hook. Against a reeling Cardinals defense we can anticipate Bears QB Justin Field going off in this matchup. Note that the 'over' is 17-10 in the Bears last 27 games following an ATS loss. The 'over' is also 15-11 in the Cards last 26 games after giving up 40 or more points in their previous contest. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-23 | Suns v. Kings UNDER 244.5 | Top | 105-120 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Friday. On paper, this sets up as a track meet as both teams are brimming with offensive talent. However, a closer look leads me to believe we're in for a lower-scoring affair than most are anticipating. Note that Phoenix generally plays at a fairly methodical pace (by today's NBA standards). Last time out, the Suns did hoist up 94 field goal attempts as they were trying to rally against the Blazers in an eventual defeat. Prior to that, Phoenix had gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in eight straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to play well defensively despite having little to show for it in the win column. Phoenix has held seven of its last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Kings obviously pose a stiff challenge but the Suns did hold them to 114 points on 42-of-92 shooting in their most recent meeting on December 8th. Sacramento clearly got caught looking past an undermanned Celtics team that was playing the second of back-to-backs two nights ago, allowing Boston to knock down a whopping 51 field goals in the blowout loss. Prior to that, the Kings had held six straight foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. The fact that Sacramento took the first matchup between these teams this season is notable as the 'under' is 26-14 in the Suns last 40 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 or more points. Take the under (10*). |
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12-18-23 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 230 | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Bulls are coming off consecutive high-scoring games against the Heat in Miami but I look for a different story to unfold as they continue their road trip in Philadelphia on Monday. Note that Chicago still held Miami to just 83 field goal attempts last time out. The Heat quite simply shot the lights out. The Bulls have limited five straight opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The 76ers are in terrific defensive form right now having held four straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While they are currently red hot offensively, it's worth noting that Chicago had their number last season, limiting them to 40 or fewer made field goals in all four matchups. The 'under' is 13-3 in the 76ers last 16 games when coming off four straight victories by 10 points or more, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-16-23 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 217 | Top | 116-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls have incredibly held 24 of their 26 opponents to 90 field goal attempts or less this season. That's quite an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. The first game of this two-game set in Miami was actually high-scoring, resulting in 240 total points. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday. The Bulls have been performing well offensively in Zach LaVine's absence. They knocked down 45 field goals in Thursday's win over the Heat. With that being said, they're just one game removed from connecting on only 36 field goals in Denver. The Heat have been held to exactly 37 made field goals in three of their last four contests. They're unlikely to push the pace against the Bulls, noting they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 19 of their last 20 games. Thursday's game snapped a streak of five straight contests in which Miami had held the opposition to 87 FG attempts or fewer. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-13 in the Bulls last 39 road games following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
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12-16-23 | Avalanche v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Jets slipped four goals past the Avalanche when these teams met on December 7th in Colorado, winning that contest by a pair. I look for a lower-scoring affair this time around as Colorado heads to Winnipeg on Saturday. The Jets have allowed two goals or less in six straight games. They're giving up only 2.8 goals per game at home this season. Colorado had allowed a whopping 10 goals in its last two games before holding the Sabres to one goal last time out. Note that the 'under' is 21-7 in the Avs last 28 road games seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. The 'under' is also 39-17 in Winnipeg's last 56 home games following a victory. Take the under (10*). |
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