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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-24-24 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams last night as the Mariners cruised to a 4-0 victory behind another strong pitching performance from Logan Gilbert. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday as Seattle sends Bryce Miller to the hill against veteran Jon Gray of Texas. Miller hasn't fared well in limited work against the Rangers, allowing their current hitters to collect 10 hits in 25 at-bats with five of those knocks going for extra bases and three for home runs. Not only that but Miller has recorded only a 3:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against them. The Mariners bullpen has been terrific but Miller is generally good for five or six innings and I expect the Rangers to get their opportunities against him. Jon Gray has held up reasonably well in the early going this season but I do think regression is on the way. Note that current Mariners hitters are just 14-for-88 against him but Mitch Haniger is 2-for-6 with a pair of home runs and Ty France and Julio Rodriguez have both gone deep against him as well. In fact, of the 10 Mariners hitters that have faced him all but two have collected at least a hit. Note that Gray has worked five innings or less in seven of his last nine starts so there's a good chance we'll see plenty of the Rangers bullpen. Texas relievers entered this series sporting a collective 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-24 | Mavs -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. One record-setting poor shooting quarter effectively sunk the Mavericks in the opener of this series on Sunday. Dallas didn't get off to the start it had hoped for in that contest but still had hope after trailing by 12 points following the first quarter. From there it was a 22-8 second frame in favor of the Clippers and that was essentially that for Game 1. With that being said, the Mavs did show some fight, ultimately making the final score respectable thanks to a hot shooting second half. I do think we'll see them carry over some of the positive momentum from that strong second half in Game 2 on Tuesday. As indicated by the line, the Mavs are still the superior team in this matchup and check in 29-18 ATS in their last 47 games as a road favorite of six points or less including a 15-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Clips are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests as a home underdog including a 2-4 ATS record this season. Take Dallas (10*). |
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04-23-24 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams last night and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Luis Severino entered the season with rather low expectations as he made the move from the Bronx to Queens to join the Mets. However, the veteran right-hander had a terrific Spring and has picked up where he left off in the regular season, recording a serviceable 3.70 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. The Giants don't have a lot to go on against Severino as their current hitters are a combined 2-for-28 against him with a pair of singles. Behind Severino is a Mets bullpen that entered this series among the best in baseball, sporting a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Giants ace Logan Webb has been terrific in the early going this season, posting a 2.85 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings of work. Webb is capable of giving the Giants seven-plus quality innings on any given night and he draws a favorable matchup here as current Mets hitters are 13-for-73 against him with only four extra-base hits. Pete Alonso has homered off of Webb but is just 1-for-11 against him. The Giants bullpen hasn't been great this season but again that's not as much of a concern with Webb starting as they may only be asked to piece together an inning or two. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-24 | Kings v. Oilers UNDER 6 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10 pm et on Monday. When you think of the Edmonton Oilers, low-scoring games aren't necessarily the first thing that comes to mind. With that being said, the Oilers have recorded an 18-20-3 o/u record on home ice this season and the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in their last four meetings with the Kings. Los Angeles has posted a 13-26-2 o/u mark on the road this season with an average total of just 5.7 goals scored. Note that the 'under' is 61-50 in the Kings last 111 contests following an 'over' result including an 18-12 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 38-33 in Los Angeles' last 71 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored four goals or more, which is the situation here, including a 16-10 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 21-18 in Edmonton's last 39 games following a loss by three goals or more, as is the case here, including an 8-6 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-24 | Blue Jays v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 109 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This one sets up as a well-pitched affair between the Blue Jays and Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Monday. Yusei Kikuchi had an awful Spring for the Blue Jays but has had no such trouble in his first four regular season starts, recording a 2.24 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings of work. Current Royals hitters have combined to go 7-for-35 against him with just three extra-base hits. Bobby Witt Jr. is 0-for-4 against Kikuchi with a pair of strikeouts and one walk. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. Like Kikuchi, he struggled in the Spring but has pitched reasonably well in his first four regular season outings, logging a 4.06 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. Current Blue Jays hitters have gone a miserable 8-for-41 against Singer including just on extra-base hit (a home run by Daulton Varsho). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 0-for-7 in his career against Singer. Neither bullpen has been lights out this season but I do think both starters are capable of working relatively deep into this ball game. Of note, the two bullpens entered yesterday's action having combined to record 12 saves while blowing only three. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-24 | Predators v. Canucks -140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver over Nashville at 10 pm et on Sunday. The Canucks dropped their regular season finale in Winnipeg but I look for them to bounce back in Game 1 of their opening round series against the Predators. This is more of a mismatch than the line indicates in my opinion. Nashville made a late push but was really only a mediocre Western Conference team all season. Vancouver on the other hand was a front-runner for much of the way before Dallas ultimately overtook it for the top spot in the West. Note that the Preds are just 9-13 (-4.1 net games) in their last 23 Game 1's while the Canucks are 22-9 (+10.1 net games) off a loss this season. Take Vancouver (10*). |
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04-21-24 | Red Sox v. Pirates -140 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Red Sox have proven to be road warriors in the early going this season but I look for them to get tripped up in the finale of their series in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Josh Winckowski will get the start for Boston. He has logged 11 2/3 innings in relief this season, posting an ugly 2.06 WHIP. Keep in mind, for his career he has recorded a 1.54 WHIP so it's not like there's a lot of positive regression to be expected. Veteran left-hander Martin Perez had a terrific Spring for the Pirates and has picked up right where he left off in the regular season, posting a 3.43 FIP and 1.26 WHIP in four starts. He did labor through his most recent outing against the red hot Mets but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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04-18-24 | Diamondbacks +150 v. Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Arizona over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Thursday. Going back to the start of last season, the Giants are 17-20 in Logan Webb's 37 starts. Yes, he's a quality pitcher but San Francisco doesn't always provide the support needed to secure victories in spite of his terrific pitching. That wasn't the story in his most recent outing as the Giants produced 11 runs in a rout of the Rays last Saturday. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday in San Francisco. Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson is coming off a masterful six-inning outing against the Cardinals in which he allowed just one earned run. Note that the D'Backs have come away victorious in each of his three career starts against the Giants including a pair of wins in San Francisco. While the bullpen matchup is virtually a wash over the last week, D'Backs relievers have posted better overall numbers this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
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04-18-24 | Sharks v. Flames -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Calgary -1.5 goals over San Jose at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Flames fell short in Vancouver two nights ago, snapping a two-game winning streak in the process. I look for them to bounce back on Thursday as they return home to wrap up what has been a disappointing season but in a smash spot against the lowly Sharks. San Jose looks like a team that has already packed it in for the season, coming off consecutive blowout losses by scores of 6-2 and 9-2 against the Wild and Oilers, respectively. Still a number of years away from even contending for a playoff spot, the Sharks are looking to the future. It's a different story for the Flames as they expect to compete for a playoff spot (and a division title) each and every year. There's plenty of roster moves to be made moving forward but I do think this team has continued to play hard down the stretch and finds itself in a prime bounce-back situation on Thursday. The Flames have plenty of young talent in the pipeline, led by goaltender Dustin Wolf, who figures to get the start between the pipes on Thursday. He backstopped the Flames to a 3-2 win in San Jose on April 9th, stopping 20 of 22 shots he faced. Take Calgary -1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-17-24 | Yankees -1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-4 | Win | 155 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. Kevin Gausman has been awful in his last two starts. In fact, he's been pretty bad going all the way back to last August save for a few starts. When things have gone south for the veteran right-hander it's been in spectacular fashion. Note that in Gausman's last seven team losses, the opposition has plated a whopping 51 runs. After dropping the first two games of this series, I look for the Yankees to rebound on Wednesday afternoon. Marcus Stroman will get the nod for New York. He's coming off a rocky outing of his own but still owns a respectable 3.42 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the campaign. He'll of course be up for this matchup against his former team. The Jays bullpen has held up well in this series so far but I think it's only a matter of time before it gets blown up. We'll bet that today is the day. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
Play-in Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While the Pelicans were there in body they certainly weren't in spirit in Sunday's regular season ending 124-108 loss to these same Lakers. I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday's 7 vs. 8 play-in tournament matchup. Neither team's back is against the wall, so to speak, in this contest as the one that loses will live to fight another day, against the winner of the 9 vs. 10 matchup between the Warriors and Kings. The Pelicans have enjoyed a terrific season and prior to Sunday's loss to the Lakers, had reeled off four straight wins - all coming on the road. I certainly anticipate them bouncing back here, noting they've gone 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Lakers are 21-39 ATS in their last 60 contests following consecutive wins including a 9-15 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-15-24 | Giants -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Marlins starter A.J. Puk has proven he's not ready for a rotation spot, issuing 14 walks while giving up 12 hits in barely 10 innings of work this season. The Giants should be in a foul mood after failing to secure a series win in St. Petersburg yesterday. Kyle Harrison looks like he has the stuff to succeed at the big league level and I'm confident he'll put San Francisco in good position to win by margin on Monday in Miami. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-14-24 | Bucks v. Magic OVER 214.5 | Top | 88-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have been trending in the wrong direction defensively, allowing three straight and four of their last five opponents to connect on at least 42 field goals. They've also been playing faster down the stretch, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. The Bucks can seemingly bait any opponent into an up-tempo affair, noting that they've allowed 89 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games. Even without Giannis in the lineup, they've been clicking offensively, making good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight contests. The 'over' is 32-21 in the Bucks last 53 games following a road loss including a 10-8 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-39 in Orlando's last 88 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 13-7 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-13-24 | Rockies v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Rockies bats exploded in the series opener between these two teams last night. I expect the Blue Jays to return the favor against Colorado starter Dakota Hudson on Saturday but question whether Toronto's pitching staff can stem the tide with Yariel Rodriguez getting the call to make his big league debut. Rodriguez is a bit of a Wild Card having mostly excelled as a reliever in Japan. The Blue Jays are certainly believers in him after handing him a $32 million contract but it remains to be seen how he'll perform at the big league level. For now, I'm not anticipating him to work deep into this ball game, nor do I expect him to completely shut down the Rockies bats. Toronto's bullpen hasn't been good and there's no help coming at the moment. Given how I expect the Jays bats to perform in this game I don't think we'll need much from the Rockies to get this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-24 | Cubs +105 v. Mariners | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'm fairly high on Cubs starter Jordan Wicks in the early going this season. We managed to cash the 'under' in his most recent start against the Dodgers. He didn't necessarily have his best stuff on that afternoon but still hung in there and ultimately helped our cause. I like the matchup here against a Mariners offense that just hasn't been there with any consistency in the early stages of the season. Bryce Miller has a bright future for Seattle, or at least that's the general consensus. I do think he's a considerable step behind the likes of George Kirby and Logan Gilbert in the M's starting rotation, however. In fact, I'm not sure Miller will every reach those heights. He's alternated good and bad starts so far this year and I think he's in for a rough one on Friday. Take Chicago (10*). |
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04-12-24 | Predators -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 5-1 | Win | 108 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Nashville -1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. I expect the Predators to be all business as they carry out this one-game trip to Chicago off a disappointing home loss against the Jets three nights ago. Note that Nashville is 12-5 (+7.9 net games) following a home loss this season while Chicago checks in a woeful 17-60 (-32.6 net games) in its last 77 contests against Central Division foes. After a brief surge, the wheels have come off for the Blackhawks over the last couple of games, falling by 4-0 and 5-2 scores against the Wild and Blues. They were down 4-0 before the ice was even dry two nights ago in St. Louis. Since the start of 2022 the Preds are 7-1 in this series with all but two of those victories coming by at least two goals. Take Nashville -1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-12-24 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We'll pick on the two starters in this divisional matchup as neither arm has the track record to shine in this particular spot. Dane Dunning can succeed at times for the Rangers but it's more a matter of holding the opposing bats at bay just enough for his team's offense to take care of the rest. Dunning isn't shutting many opponents down. It's a similar story for J.P. France. He has actually recorded a terrific 2.43 FIP through two outings this season but regression figures to be on his way, noting he has posted a lofty 1.50 WHIP. Off a 1-0 loss to the A's yesterday the Rangers bats figure to wake up and it's worth mentioning that they just faced France last week, plating three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. The damage could have been even worse as France yielded eight hits and two walks while striking out only four. Dunning fared slightly better against the Astros and has solid career numbers against them. Note the he's faced them just once in Houston and lasted only four innings after giving up four earned runs on seven hits. Take the over (10*). |
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04-11-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox +112 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston over Baltimore at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Orioles have taken the first two games in this series including last night's contest in comeback fashion. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup on tap for Thursday's series finale but I'll give the Red Sox the edge with Garrett Whitlock taking the ball. Whitlock showed promise before being moved to the bullpen last year. So far this season he has logged a 2.25 FIP and 1.18 WHIP and that comes on the heels of an outstanding Spring. Grayson Rodriguez has the potential to be an ace for the Orioles but we saw him go through a stretch where he couldn't keep the ball in the park last May and we're seeing signs of that again in the early going this season (three home runs allowed in two starts). Fenway Park isn't a great place to figure out such issues. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-11-24 | Capitals v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' lately but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Thursday in Buffalo. The Capitals currently hold down the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt but their hold is tenuous at best. They need to throw everything they have at the Sabres on Thursday. Buffalo comes off consecutive road losses in Detroit and Dallas in which it scored a grand total of three goals. A return home should help the Sabres cause as should facing the Caps noting that Washington is giving up an average of 3.3 goals per game on the road this season. Note that the 'over' is 14-10 in Washington's last 24 games following three straight 'under' results, as is the case here, including a 5-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo has seen the 'over' go 26-16 in its last 42 contests when coming off consecutive 'under' results, which is also the situation here, including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-10-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. As is the case with many teams on Wednesday, both the Timberwolves and Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot here. I think this sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between these Northwest Division rivals. Note that the Timberwolves have been the picture of consistency from a defensive standpoint this season. They're not getting run out of the gym by many opponents having held an incredible 17 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Over that stretch, only two opponents made good on more than 42. It's a similar story for the Nuggets but with even more dominance. They've limited seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. You would have to go back 15 games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 42. The 'under' is 13-10 in Minnesota's last 23 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here, including a 1-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-21 in the Nuggets last 15 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 9-4 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-24 | A's v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 112 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have inexplicably reeled off three straight wins but I look for that streak to end on Wednesday. Ross Stripling will get the start for Oakland. He caught lightning in a bottle in his most recent outing, getting involved in a pitching duel with Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox in an eventual 1-0 loss. Those type of impressive outings are likely to be few and far between for the journeyman starter this season, however. After his line drive percentage rocketed last season it has held through two starts this year as well. I look for the Rangers bats to feast. Cody Bradford doesn't get much attention near the back of the Rangers starting rotation but he has the potential to be a quality arm for the defending champs again this year. Bradford won't overwhelm hitters with his pitch velocity but he makes the most of his pitch arsenal and has recorded a 2.91 FIP and 0.47 WHIP through two outings this season. The A's have been winning but have a small margin for error averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Suns last three games and I look for a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Phoenix has held six straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three in a row to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Suns connected on more than 44 field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. They've held four straight and six of their last seven foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 60-45 in the Clippers last 105 games with the total set in the 220's including a 19-12 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-57 in the Suns last 118 contests as a home favorite including an 18-16 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-08-24 | Rays -135 v. Angels | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We'll get another shot at fading Angels starter Tyler Anderson at a reasonable price after he inexplicably tossed seven shutout innings against the Marlins in his 2024 debut. Los Angeles is coming off a series loss at home against another (weaker) A.L. East opponent in the Red Sox. The Rays come in off a series win in Colorado and will look to keep it rolling with Zach Eflin on the mound on Monday. He shook off a rough debut against the Blue Jays by holding the Rangers to just one earned run over 6 1/3 innings last time out. I would consider Anderson one of the more overpaid starters in baseball right now and will gladly fade him in this matchup. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Purdue and Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. I'm not going to stand in the way of either team's 'under' streaks in this matchup. Purdue has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games while Connecticut rides a six-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Neither team plays all that fast. In fact, the Huskies sit 328th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Purdue checks in 211th. While both teams are ultra-efficient offensively, I generally feel this large stadium venues tend to put a ceiling on shooting abilities. The Huskies actually shot well in their matchup with Alabama on Saturday but Purdue is a considerably tougher defensive opponent. The Boilermakers are going to be up against it here trying to find open looks with UConn ranking fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). I think the Huskies can defend without fouling, something Purdue's previous opponents haven't been able to do effectively. Note that the 'under' is 16-15 in Purdue's last 31 netural court games and 18-12 in UConn's last 30 netural court affairs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-08-24 | Penguins +139 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. This is undoubtedly a game the Penguins have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 7-0 decision here in Toronto back in December. Pittsburgh has inexplicably caught fire down the stretch, winning four straight and six of its last seven games after most had written it off. The Pens are now in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and I look for them to deliver another improbable win on Monday. The Leafs are coming off a 4-2 victory over the rival Canadiens in Montreal on Saturday. They return home where they're just 4-4 over their last eight games. Note that Pittsburgh is 19-13 (+3.4 net games) in its last 32 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent including a 7-5 (+2.2 net games) mark in that situation this season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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04-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. New Orleans is reeling right now having lost four straight games both SU and ATS. I look for the Pelicans to give the Suns all they can handle on Sunday, however. Note that New Orleans is trending in the right direction offensively having knocked down 42 or more field goals in two of its last three games. It has also held five straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns while coming off three straight victories both SU and ATS have been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. It's not as if they're blowing the doors off the opposition. Note that the Pelicans are 19-11 ATS in their last 30 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including an 8-3 ATS record in that situation this season. The Suns are 18-34 ATS in their last 52 contests following a double-digit home win including a 4-8 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-07-24 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Padres starter Matt Waldron's stay at the big league level could prove to be short-lived but we want to fade him while we can as he makes his second start of the campaign in San Francisco on Sunday. Waldron actually looked pretty good in the Spring, earning a role in the starting rotation. His first regular season outing didn't go so well as he allowed nine hits and four earned runs in just four innings of work. The Giants will get their second look at the knuckle-baller after facing him in late September last year. Waldron recorded a 5.46 FIP in 41 1/3 big league innings last season. San Francisco will hand the ball to Logan Webb as he looks to shake off a rough outing in Los Angeles earlier this week. I'm not overly concerned by that shaky performance as Webb was terrific in his regular season debut (against these same Padres). The Giants ace owns a career 2.56 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts against San Diego. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-05-24 | Wolves v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair the last time they met but that was back in November. Phoenix is trending slower right now having gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight and eight of its last 10 games. The Suns have also played some defense lately, limiting seven of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Of course the Timberwolves have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season and they enter this contest having held 11 straight and 13 of their last 14 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Minnesota's offense exploded last time out but that was against a matador-like Raptors defense. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven straight contests. Note that the 'under' is 50-44 in Minnesota's last 94 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 15-5 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' holds a slight edge in all Suns home games recently, going 67-63 in their last 130 contests in the desert including a 19-18 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-24 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game in Atlanta on Friday. Tommy Henry will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. Even the most casual observer could see that there was trouble brewing for Henry last season. He had an awful Spring and followed it up with an ugly regular season debut last week. Now he draws an extremely difficult test in the Braves home opener on Friday. Spencer Strider was lights out in the Spring but his first regular season outing was about what we've come to expect from the Braves ace - plenty of strikeouts (eight) but also a couple of runs allowed. I do think the D'Backs bats can get to him here, even if he does end up hanging another crooked number of K's on the board. The potential for a 6-5 type of game is there in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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04-04-24 | Kings v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Sacramento at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Knicks after suffering a 109-99 setback in Miami two nights ago. New York couldn't get anything going offensively in that loss. Off three straight losses, the Knicks will catch a Kings squad that is probably feeling pretty good about itself following victories over the Jazz and Clippers. That latter win came by 14 points against Los Angeles. Note that Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win by double-digits over a division opponent including a 1-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Kings are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests after allowing 95 points or less in their previous game including a 1-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 7-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 16-10 ATS in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road loss including a 6-2 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). |
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04-02-24 | Penguins v. Devils -160 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New Jersey over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Devils have undoubtedly been eager to get back on the ice following Friday's 5-2 loss in Buffalo. Since then, the Penguins have played twice, losing in Columbus but winning in upset fashion last night in Manhattan. New Jersey probably didn't mind seeing that result on Monday as the Pens looked like they poured everything they had into that matchup. The Devils have certainly had Pittsburgh's number lately, securing seven straight wins in the series. In fact, they've scored five goals in each of the last four matchups between these two teams. I'm comfortable laying the mid-range price with the home side on Tuesday. Take New Jersey (10*). |
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04-02-24 | Angels v. Marlins -140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is one of the bigger starting pitching mismatches on Tuesday's board but it isn't being priced like it. Tyler Anderson will start the year in the Angels rotation. That's only because he earned a big contract following consecutive solid campaigns in 2021 and 2022. He wasn't good in 2023 and I don't expect him to turn back the clock in 2024. The Marlins will hand the ball to their ace Jesus Luzardo. His ho-hum season debut against the Pirates (a game the Marlins lost) keeps the price in a reasonable range here. I expect Luzardo to make the leap to elite status this season, if he's not already there, but it will take some time for the betting marketplace to come around (and for the Marlins bats to start producing). I like the spot off last night's loss. Take Miami (10*). |
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04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Giants are coming off an exceptionally high-scoring series in San Diego. Meanwhile, the Dodgers saw plenty of runs in their home series against the Cardinals. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as these N.L. West rivals match up for the first time in 2024. Keaton Winn will take the ball for the visiting Giants. He's probably better than a back-of-the-rotation starter after an up-and-down 2023 campaign. Winn saw limited action in the Spring but did record a 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He's a ground ball pitcher with an effective splitter that should keep the Dodgers mighty bats guessing on Monday. Veteran James Paxton joins the Dodgers after spending last season with the Red Sox. He should benefit from moving over to the National League (and making most of his starts at Dodger Stadium) at this stage of his career. Paxton worked seven innings in the Spring, logging a 5.14 ERA but a solid 1.14 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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03-31-24 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 218 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Miami is coming off a stunning 142-point explosion against Portland last time out. Keep in mind, the Heat are just one game removed from a stretch that saw them score 92 points or fewer in three of five games. The Wizards continue to see wild swings offensively. They were held to only 87 points in an 'upset' loss at home against the Pistons last time out. They've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. However, on the flip side, Washington has held four of its last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Miami continues to play smothering defense (by today's NBA standards), limiting 10 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 39-35 in Miami's last 74 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent score 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 10-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-3 in the Heat's last 13 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 4-0 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is 12-8 in Washington's last 20 contests following consecutive home defeats including an 8-4 mark this season. Off an upset loss at home, the Wiz have seen the 'under' go 15-3 in their last 18 games including 3-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-30-24 | Clemson +3 v. Alabama | Top | 82-89 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Clemson plus the points over Alabama at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Clemson will try to accomplish what another ACC squad was unable to do two nights ago and that's topple Alabama on its way to a Final Four appearance on Saturday night. The ACC has exceeded expectations in this tournament, even if the Tar Heels did fall short against the Crimson Tide on Thursday. Clemson enters riding a red hot 21-11 ATS tear in an underdog role including a 9-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Note that Alabama falls into a rather poor situation here as it has gone 17-28 ATS in its last 45 contests after scoring 85 points or more in its previous game, as is the case here, including an 11-11 ATS record in that situation this season. Clemson has climbed all the way inside KenPom's top-20 rankings nationally, closing the gap on 14th-ranked Alabama as this tournament has gone on. Clearly the Tigers were underrated entering this tournament but they come off their best offensive showing (29-of-59 shooting against Arizona) and have held four straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals (Alabama has held just one of its last six foes to fewer than 29). Take Clemson (10*). |
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03-30-24 | Yankees v. Astros -128 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston over New York at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Astros have dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to bounce back behind impressive young starter Hunter Brown on Saturday. Not that Spring Training numbers ultimately mean all that much but Brown was electric during exhibition play, posting a 2.12 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. The long season ultimately wore on Brown in 2023 but I look for a big sophomore campaign for the right-hander and this is a big stage for him in his season debut, facing the mighty Yankees off consecutive losses. New York will hand the ball to newly-acquired Marcus Stroman. He's coming off an All-Star campaign and makes the jump back to the American League. Note that Stroman's teams are just 11-19 (-3.2 net games) in his last 30 starts as an underdog priced between +125 and +175 including a 2-6 (-2.9 net games) record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-29-24 | Blue Jays v. Rays -113 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 6:50 pm et on Friday. The Blue Jays smashed the Rays on Opening Day but I look for Tampa Bay to return the favor on Friday. Jays starter Chris Bassitt didn't have a great Spring, allowing 28-of-93 batters he faced to reach base. Last season, he recorded a middling 4.28 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. Aaron Civale will counter for Tampa Bay. He posted an ERA north of five during the Spring but did allow only 13-of-47 batters he faced to reach base. Civale saw his home runs allowed take a jump in 2023 but the rest of his numbers were fine. He has recorded a 3.57 FIP or better in each of the last three seasons. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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03-28-24 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -10.5 | Top | 52-82 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over San Diego State at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. This is of course a rematch of last year's championship game that Connecticut won in a rout, 76-59. I don't expect this game to be any closer - in fact, I think the Huskies hold an even greater advantage in this year's matchup. San Diego State checks in off wins over UAB and Yale with the latter victory coming in blowout fashion. Keep in mind, the Aztecs haven't covered the spread in consecutive games since February 13th and 16th. Connecticut on the other hand is on an ATS tear, grabbing the cash in three straight and 11 of its last 13 games. The Huskies rank inside the country's top-10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Note that San Diego State is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Aztecs are also just 26-29 ATS in their last 55 contests following consecutive wins including a 4-10 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, UConn is 61-39 ATS in its last 100 games as a favorite including 24-11 ATS this season. The Huskies are quite simply built for postseason basketball, riding a long-term 36-23 ATS run in NCAA Tournament action including an 8-1 ATS mark in their last nine contests in the Big Dance. Take Connecticut (10*). |
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03-27-24 | Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams found their way 'over' the total in the front half of this home-and-home set on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday in Charlotte. Note that the Cavaliers knocked down 46 field goals in that victory. They simply shot the lights out but were by no means volume-shooters, getting off just 86 field goal attempts. In fact, the Cavs have hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight and eight of their last nine games. They haven't connected on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games since a three-game streak from February 25th to 28th. The Hornets have been far worse offensively in recent weeks. They've made good on 38 or fewer field goals in five straight games. They've have a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting just 82, 79, 84 and 80 field goals over their last four games. While Charlotte is by no means an elite defensive team, it has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities, holding eight of its last 10 foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Cavs last 14 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including an 8-0 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-18 in the Cavs last 43 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, including an 8-6 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 22-11 in the Hornets last 33 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 14-5 mark this season. Finally, the 'under' is 29-20 in Charlotte's last 49 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent including an 11-8 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks OVER 232 | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks are well-positioned to go off offensively on Tuesday as they wrap up their three-game homestand against an injury-depleted Lakers squad. Milwaukee has connected on 51, 45, 43 and 49 field goals over its last four games. It has also been playing faster, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. That spells trouble for a matador-like Lakers defense that has allowed more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last eight games, yielding at least 96 field goal attempts in four straight games and 92 or more in 10 of its last 11 contests. I do think the Lakers offense can be brought along for the ride in this game so to speak. Keep in mind, the Bucks have a poor track record as home favorites, going 57-62 ATS in their last 119 games in that role including a 15-18 ATS record this season. Milwaukee has allowed three of its last four opponents to connect on at least 40 field goals. The 'over' is 54-33 in the Lakers last 87 contests as a road underdog including a 13-8 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-25 in the Bucks last 52 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 13-9 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 213.5 | Top | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a low-scoring victory in San Antonio on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to Denver to face the Nuggets on Monday. Note that Memphis has been trending toward higher-scoring affairs on its current road trip having hoisted up 92 and 96 field goal attempts in regulation time in two of three contests. Denver has actually proven vulnerable defensively, or at least more than usual, in recent contests allowing three of its last four foes to connect on at least 42 field goals. Speaking of vulnerability at the defensive end of the floor, Memphis has allowed 44 or more made field goals in regulation time in four of its last seven games. The Nuggets continue to thrive offensively having connected on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 16 games and 45 or more nine times over that stretch. Note that the 'over' is 37-33 in Memphis' last 70 games as a road underdog including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-6 in the Nuggets last 16 home games with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including a 3-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Grand Canyon plus the points over Alabama at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. I think most are still sleeping on Grand Canyon, even after its upset win over St. Mary's in the opening round of this tournament. The Antelopes aren't some upstart - they actually check in 50th in the country according to KenPom's overall rankings. They do everything reasonably well and play at a fast enough pace to not get overwhelmed by Alabama in this particular matchup. The Crimson Tide prevailed by double-digits against Charleston in the opening round. They continue to thrive offensively but can be had defensively, ranking just 117th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Note that Grand Canyon is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 games as an underdog including a 3-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. Alabama did cover the spread in its tournament opener but remains just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 NCAA Tournament contests including a 2-3 ATS record over the last three seasons. Take Grand Canyon (10*). |
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03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton UNDER 146 | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Creighton at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. Oregon's opening round victory over South Carolina didn't have much business getting 'over' the total or certainly not reaching 160 total points. The Ducks actually got off just 47 field goal attempts in that contest while holding South Carolina to 25-of-56 shooting. Oregon quite simply shot the lights out but I think it will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance against Creighton on Saturday. While the Blue Jays are known for their offensive prowess they can play some defense as well. Note that they check in ranked 26th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Both teams rank around the 200 mark in terms of adjusted tempo so neither team plays exceptionally fast. Note that the 'under' is 24-21 in Oregon's last 45 games following an ATS win including an 8-7 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-12 in Creighton's last 27 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-6 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-24 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 240 | Top | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers aren't the same team they were earlier in the season, playing at a slower pace and doing a much better job defensively. They check in with the 'under' having cashed in 11 of their last 14 games and we'll go that way again as they continue their road trip in San Francisco on Friday. Note that Indiana has held three straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only six of its last 17 opponents have managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. The Warriors have shot incredibly well over the last three games but are likely to face some resistance here. On the flip side, they've held five of their last six and 20 of their last 25 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 26-21 in the Pacers last 47 games as a road underdog of six points or less including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Warriors last 15 contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-24 | UABÂ +7 v. San Diego State | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on UAB plus the points over San Diego State at 1:45 pm et on Friday. I don't think UAB is getting enough respect after beating three quality opponents in three days on its way to an AAC Tournament title last week. The Blazers have quietly put together a 20-12 ATS record in lined games this season. While few were paying attention back in November, they opened the campaign with an extremely tough three-game slate, at home against Bradley followed by neutral site contests against Clemson and Maryland. UAB went 2-1 ATS in those three contests with the lone defeat coming by two points against Bradley. Going back to January 14th the Blazers have rattled off an incredible 15 ATS victories in 19 games. San Diego State certainly took the Mountain West Conference Tournament seriously, reaching the final against New Mexico (it lost that game 68-61). I see this as a tough opening round draw for the Aztecs as the Blazers figure to push the pace and make them uncomfortable. UAB is efficient enough to back it up, ranking inside the country's top-60 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). A big reason why San Diego State has only managed to go 13-19 ATS this season is that it is good enough to be favored in most contests but doesn't generate enough scoring opportunities to cover those spreads. The Aztecs rank 266th in the country in adjusted tempo. UAB has connected on 30 or more field goals in five of its last eight games while San Diego State has reached that number just once since the end of January and six times all season. The Blazers have been a solid positive momentum play in recent years going 28-26 ATS in their last 54 games following an ATS win including a 13-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, San Diego State is just 22-27 ATS in its last 49 contests following an ATS loss including a 7-11 ATS record in that spot this season. Take UAB (10*). |
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03-21-24 | Akron v. Creighton UNDER 141.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Creighton at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. Creighton tends to carry a reputation as an up-tempo offensive team and bettors are generally quick to support the 'over' in games involving the Blue Jays, especially at this time of year. We've already seen this total get bet up a couple of points and I believe it will prove too high. Pittsburgh's PPG Paints Arena last hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action in 2022. The six games played in this venue totalled an average of only 124.2 total points with just one of those contests surpassing the total we're working with in this particular contest on Thursday. Akron will certainly have its work cut out for it on Thursday but it does likely come in with a gameplan in mind and that's slowing this game to a crawl. Note that the Zips rank 268th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. They're also inside the top-100 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Considering Akron boasts the 162nd ranked offense (in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency) it doesn't figure to be interested in giving Creighton (and its 12th-ranked offense) any more possessions than it has to. Of note, the Blue Jays actually rank just outside the top-200 in adjusted tempo so it's not as if they're playing at a frenetic pace this season. Yes, they've been ultra-efficient but I do think playing at a larger venue like the one in Pittsburgh serves as an equalizer in a sense. The 'under' is 21-17 in Akron's last 38 games with the total set in the 140's including a 12-5 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 27-13 in the Zips last 40 contests played on a neutral court as an underdog including a perfect 3-0 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-18 in Creighton's last 47 postseason tournament games including 16-9 in its last 25 NCAA Tournament contests. Take the under (10*). |
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03-20-24 | VCU v. Villanova UNDER 131 | Top | 70-61 | Push | 0 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between VCU and Villanova at 9 pm et on Wednesday. This game is flashing 'under' as two teams that are obviously disappointed to not be playing in the Big Dance match up in NIT action on Wednesday night in Villanova. VCU lost in a slugfest in the Atlantic-10 Championship against Duquesne. The Rams rank outside the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency and 302nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Where VCU shines of course is at the defensive end of the floor, sitting 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. This is a matchup it figures to handle against a Villanova offense that has disappointed, ranking 84th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 350th in adjusted tempo. Only 12 Division I teams have played at a slower pace this season. The Wildcats have been even better than the Rams defensively this season, ranking 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. While there's always the chance we see a late scoring flurry in a game in this pointspread range, I'm willing to take my chances with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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03-19-24 | Cal-Irvine +7.5 v. Utah | Top | 75-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Week. My selection is on Cal-Irvine plus the points over Utah at 11 pm et on Tuesday. Utah probably feels like it deserved a better fate but the wins and losses simply didn't add up for the Utes to reach the NCAA Tournament. Here they are in the NIT and while Cal-Irvine won't catch a lot of attention by name recognition only, the Anteaters have the pedigree and the personnel to give Utah all it can handle on Tuesday night. Cal-Irvine enters the NIT on an offensive tear. The Anteaters have knocked down 30, 30, 31, 31, 28 and 32 field goals over their last six contests. That's to go along with a defense that ranks 40th in the country (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric) - one spot above tonight's opponent, Utah. The Utes have quite simply been an unreliable bet since New Year's Eve, going 8-13 ATS over their last 21 games. While the Anteaters failed to deliver the cash in their most recent game against NCAA Tournament-bound Long Beach State, they've never lost more than two games in a row ATS this season and that happened only three times previously. In fact, the Anteaters are 23-16 ATS in their last 39 games following an ATS loss including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah, meanwhile, has gone 57-69 ATS in its last 126 tournament games (in-season or postseason) including a 4-8 ATS record over the last three seasons. I simply feel the Utes are laying too many points on Tuesday. Take Cal-Irvine (10*). |
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03-19-24 | Jets v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in six straight meetings in this series and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Winnipeg has scored six goals in consecutive games but those came against the Ducks and Blue Jackets - two of the league's worst defensive teams. Here, the Jets will run into a red hot Rangers squad that has allowed just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. Winnipeg road games have totalled an average of only 5.4 goals. Note that the 'under' is 12-9 in the Jets last 21 games following three straight 'over' results, as is the case here, including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 40-23 in Winnipeg's last 63 contests following consecutive wins including a 15-8 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-4 in the Rangers last 13 games following consecutive wins by three goals or more and 10-4 in their last 14 contests after scoring five goals or more in two straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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03-18-24 | Wolves v. Jazz +7.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Timberwolves easily brushed aside the Jazz in the first half of this two-game set in Utah on Saturday. I expect Utah to provide a lot more resistance in Monday's rematch. Note that the T'Wolves have now won back-to-back road games. They're just 29-43 ATS in their last 72 contests following consecutive road wins including a 6-9 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. Minnesota is also just 3-9 ATS this season after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. Meanwhile, Utah is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games as a home underdog including a 13-7 ATS mark this season. Additionally, the Jazz are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games played with triple-revenge, as is the case here. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-17-24 | Duquesne +2 v. VCU | Top | 57-51 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
My selection is on Duquesne plus the points over VCU at 1 pm et on Sunday. We'll grab all the points we can get with Duquesne on Sunday as I think the Dukes might just be the better team in this matchup. It's not as if VCU is having all that memorable of a campaign. The Rams have gone 22-12 and their current three-game winning streak is their longest since a four-gamer from February 3rd to 16th. Duquesne checks in 23-11 on the season and riding a seven-game winning streak. The Dukes have turned incredibly stingy at the defensive end of the floor, rising all the way to 34th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). They've won consecutive matchups with VCU including a double-digit road win just 12 days ago. The Rams have the pedigree but the Dukes have the better team in my opinion. Take Duquesne (8*). |
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03-16-24 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 237 | Top | 128-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Steph Curry is expected to return for the Warriors on Saturday and they could use the offensive boost as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 11 games. They'll run into a Lakers team that has shown signs of life defensively recently, limiting three straight and four of their last five foes to 46 or fewer made field goals (that's actually progress given the way they had been playing). While the Lakers have been shooting well themselves, they're playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Meanwhile, Golden State has limited the opposition to 44 or fewer made field goals in six of its last eight games. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in Golden State's last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 6-3 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-17 in the Lakers last 37 contests played in the same situation including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-16-24 | NC State v. North Carolina -9 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over N.C. State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. N.C. State has gone on an incredible run to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive this week in D.C. but I expect its run to end here. There's obviously no love lost between these in-state rivals. The last meeting between the Wolfpack and Tar Heels was decided by only nine points but North Carolina was the better team by perhaps an even wider margin as it absolutely dominated the second half. Here, the Tar Heels come off a scare against Pittsburgh yesterday as they once again needed a big second half to pull away for a seven-point win. I expect a sharper performance from North Carolina here and it catches N.C. State off a late rally that saw it force overtime before prevailing against Virginia last night. Now the Wolfpack will play their fifth game in as many days and while they're hungry to earn that NCAA Tourney berth, I expect talent to win out on this occasion. North Carolina hasn't lost a game since February 13th at Syracuse and while it will be playing its third game in three days, the first of those contests was a glorified scrimmage in a 92-67 rout of Florida State on Thursday. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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03-14-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -9.5 | Top | 119-126 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Mavericks here as they hit the road in the second of back-to-backs off a double-digit home win over the Warriors last night and on the heels of four straight victories. While Golden State wasn't able to take advantage last night, Dallas does continue to give up too many scoring opportunities on a nightly basis. The Mavs have allowed five of their last eight opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to take advantage having knocked down 42 or more field goals in four straight and 15 of its last 17 games. The runway is cleared for takeoff for the Thunder here as they're rested having not played a back-to-back since March 3rd and 4th and with this being the finale of a four-game homestand. Note that Dallas is just 33-34 ATS in its last 67 games as a road underdog including a 10-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 32-18 ATS in its last 50 contests as a home favorite including an 18-9 ATS record this season. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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03-13-24 | Avalanche v. Canucks -103 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver over Colorado at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Avalanche followed up a perfect three-game homestand with a 6-2 rout of the Flames in Calgary last night. I look for them to have a more difficult time as they continue west to face the Canucks in Vancouver on Wednesday. Note that Colorado has now won three straight meetings in this series including both previous matchups this season. The Avs haven't won four straight games against the Canucks since an eight-game win streak in the series way back in 2007-08. The Canucks enter this game off a mini-bye having not played since Saturday. They're riding a four-game winning streak and check in 21-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. They'll be without starting goaltender Thatcher Demko for an extended period which means it's up to Casey DeSmith to hold the fort. While he's not the long-term answer, I do think he's a capable back-up. The Avs, despite their recent success, are still just 15-19 on the road this season. Take Vancouver (10*). |
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03-13-24 | Nets v. Magic UNDER 206 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This game pits two teams that have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately. The Nets have been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time they connected on more than 42 field goals. In fact, they've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in 14 of their last 17 games. They don't figure to get any sort of break here as the Magic, while struggling to find wins lately, have continued to play tough defense. Orlando checks in having held an incredible seven straight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 11 to 41 or fewer. The Magic have allowed more than 80 field goal attempts just twice in their last seven contests. On the flip side, Orlando has knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in 10 straight and 12 of its last 13 games overall. Last time out the Magic broke a streak of six straight games in which they had hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts. The 'under' is 66-45 in Brooklyn's last 111 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 21-12 record in that situation this season. The Nets have also seen the 'under' go 16-10 in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road win including a 3-1 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-5 in the Magic's last 14 contests with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points including a perfect 3-0 record this season. Finally, the 'under' is 44-35 in Orlando's last 79 games following consecutive losses including an 8-4 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-24 | Bucks v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 94-129 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks picked up a much-needed win over the Clippers on Sunday, snapping their brief two-game losing streak to open their current four-game road trip. I look for them to stumble on Tuesday, however, as they head to Sacramento to face the revenge-minded Kings. Sacramento has undoubtedly had this rematch circled on its calendar after dropping a heart-breaking 143-142 decision in Milwaukee on January 14th. The Kings enter this contest off a home loss against the Rockets which marked their second straight ATS defeat. Note that Sacramento is still 17-12 on its home floor this season. The Kings continue to do an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding an incredible 16 of their last 19 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three of their last four to 84 or fewer. Despite the poor showing against Houston last time out, Sacramento has still knocked down 52 or more field goals in two of its last three contests. Milwaukee on the other hand has allowed all three opponents on its current trip to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. In fact, the Clippers hoisted up 104 field goal attempts against the Bucks on Sunday. Note that Milwaukee is a long-term 73-80 ATS when coming off a win including an 18-22 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 contests following an upset loss at home including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Better still, they're 34-12 ATS in their last 46 games following consecutive ATS losses including 9-1 ATS this season. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-12-24 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 139.5 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and St. Mary's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry series going back to last year's WCC Tournament championship game. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. We know what St. Mary's approach to this game will be. The Gaels will look to slow the pace to a crawl, noting that they rank 358th (out of 362 Division I teams) in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. St. Mary's enters this contest having held 25 of its last 29 opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Gonzaga enters on an offensive tear but it's not as if the Bulldogs are really pushing the pace. They've gotten off 61 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games including 58 against St. Mary's on March 2nd. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 with Gonzaga coming off an 'over' result this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-4 in St. Mary's last 14 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-24 | Ducks -103 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Anaheim over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Ducks are coming off consecutive lopsided losses on home ice against the Stars and Islanders. I look for them to bounce back as they take a rare step down in class on the road against the Blackhawks on Tuesday. Anaheim actually sits 10 points clear of basement-dwelling Chicago in the Western Conference standings. Here, the Ducks will be looking to avenge an earlier 1-0 loss in Chicago suffered back in December. Note that Anaheim is 6-8 but +3.6 net games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored one goal or less in this season. The Ducks are also a long-term 64-53 (+19 net games) after scoring two goals or less in four straight games, as is the case here, including a 3-2 (+2.4 net games) mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Blackhawks delivered a 7-4 home win over the Coyotes on Sunday. That was their second win in their last three contests but both of those victories came over Arizona. Chicago is a miserable 3-15 (-10 net games) in its last 18 games following a win by three goals or more including an 0-3 mark in that situation this season. In fact, the Blackhawks are 1-15 when coming off a win of any kind this season including an 0-4 mark when that win came against a division opponent. Take Anaheim (10*). |
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03-12-24 | New Hampshire v. Vermont -13.5 | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
America East Game of the Year. My selection is on Vermont minus the points over New Hampshire at 5 pm et on Tuesday. Vermont escaped with a four-point win the last time these two teams squared off in New Hampshire just last week, failing to sniff out a cover as a nine-point favorite. I don't expect the Catamounts to face nearly as much resistance in this quick rematch in America East Tournament semi-final action on Tuesday. Note that New Hampshire is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit victory in-conference, as is the case here, including an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Wildcats are also just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, Vermont is 24-19 ATS in its last 43 contests following consecutive ATS losses including a 12-7 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons. Better still, the Catamounts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when coming off consecutive straight-up wins but ATS defeats, which is the situation here. Take Vermont (10*). |
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03-11-24 | Santa Clara v. St. Mary's -9.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over Santa Clara at 9 pm et on Monday. St. Mary's nearly let Santa Clara off the hook the last time these two teams met in late January. In that game, the Gaels built a seemingly insurmountable 22-point halftime lead before escaping with an 82-77 home victory. Keep in mind, the first matchup this season was no contest as St. Mary's rolled to a 73-49 road win. The Broncos will have the Gaels full attention for this WCC Tournament semi-final matchup on Monday. The last time we saw St. Mary's it fell by a 70-57 score in its regular season finale against Gonzaga. It has had over a week to chew on that double-digit defeat and as a result I expect to see a bit of a sling-shot effect from the Gaels on Monday. While St. Mary's does play at an extremely slow pace (it ranks 358th out of 362 Division I teams in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom), it is also very efficient, ranking inside the nation's top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). For its part, Santa Clara ranks 114th in the same category. The Broncos play fast but I think it works against them in this semi-final showdown. Take St. Mary's (10*). |
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03-11-24 | Montana State v. Weber State -6 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Weber State minus the points over Montana State at 7:30 pm et on Monday. The door is wide open for the likes of Weber State and Montana after Sacramento State and Idaho State pulled off stunning upsets in Big Sky Tournament action over the weekend. I like Weber State in particular as it draws a quick revenge matchup against Montana State on Monday. Just one week ago, Montana State delivered a 76-64 win over Weber State as it quite simply shot the lights out on its home floor (29 made field goals including 13 from three-point range on just 55 field goal attempts). Keep in mind, earlier in the season the Wildcats rolled to an 86-64 win over the Bobcats. That victory over Weber State last week marked just a third win over its last nine contests for Montana State. Meanwhile, the Wildcats suffered just their second defeat in their last 10 games. KenPom has Weber State ranked a respectable 144th in the country while Montana State checks in 241st (out of 362 Division I teams). The Bobcats play at a reasonably fast pace but aren't generally all that efficient offensively - their last game notwithstanding - and I think that will play into this one getting away from them in short order. Weber State appeared in nine postseason tournaments in 11 years from 06-07 to 16-17 including three NCAA Tournaments but has gone through a dry spell since. With two of the Wildcats biggest roadblocks going down, the opportunity presents itself to go dancing this year and I look for them to take a step in that direction on Monday. Take Weber State (10*). |
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03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 229 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive 'under' results but that's not of major concern noting they've had five previous 'under' streaks last longer. While Miami has dropped back-to-back games it remains in excellent form defensively. The Heat have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Miami isn't likely to push the pace, even against a matador-like Wizards defense. the Heat have hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 straight and 19 of their last 22 games. They've connected on more than 42 field goals just once in their last six contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-38 in Washington's last 83 games played with double-revenge including a 17-15 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-24 in Miami's last 51 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-10-24 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -4.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Arkansas State at 6 pm et on Sunday. Arkansas State just missed my card on Sunday and it was a mistake leaving the Red Wolves off as they rolled to a 27-point rout of Louisiana-Lafayette to advance to the semi-final round of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. I expect the shoe to be on the other foot on Sunday, however, as the Red Wolves are likely to be overmatched by the Mountaineers. Appalachian State needed overtime to get past Georgia Southern yesterday. The Mountaineers got a little ahead of themselves in that game thinking the Eagles were going to roll over down by double-digits at halftime. That wasn't the case and Appalachian State needed a late push in overtime to secure the victory. After that scare, I expect the Mountaineers to turn in a complete effort on Sunday. They're a much better defensive team than they showed in the second half of yesterday's game, checking in ranked 29th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Arkansas State does boast the 67th ranked offense in the country (according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency rankings) but I question whether it used up everything it had in the tank yesterday, knocking down 34-of-68 field goal attempts in the victory over Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns didn't pose any sort of offensive threat in that contest, notably making good on just 3-of-15 three-point attempts. Appalachian State elected not to involve the three-point game yesterday, attempting just 10 shots from beyond the arc. Keep in mind, the Mountaineers made good on 8-of-17 three-point attempts in an 80-57 rout of the Red Wolves just last week. Take Appalachian State (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Jazz +12.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 121-142 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets are coming off a key bounce-back win over the Celtics at home two nights ago. That came on the heels of an overtime loss at home against the Suns two nights earlier. Utah is reeling having lost nine of its last 11 games but has played competitive basketball lately, recording three straight ATS wins entering Saturday's contest. On a positive note, the Jazz have held seven straight opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. That may not seem like much of an accomplishment but given how they had been playing previously it's a step in the right direction. They're missing some key contributors offensively but have managed to knock down 42, 49 and 44 field goals over their last three games and should get Keyonte George back from a one-game absence on Saturday. I don't think Denver is well-positioned to cover too many big spreads like this given it has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in three of its last four and seven of its last 11 contests. Note that the Jazz are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss but ATS victory, as is the case here, including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah is also 19-15 ATS in its last 34 contests following three straight ATS wins, including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Denver is a middling 15-16 ATS in its last 31 games as a double-digit favorite including 5-6 ATS this season. The Nuggets are just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they were a road favorite, which is the situation here, going 4-6 ATS in that spot this season. Finally, Denver is a long-term 73-82 ATS following a win including 18-22 ATS this season. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Celtics -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start on their current road trip with consecutive close losses coming at the hands of the Cavaliers and Nuggets. I look for them to 'get right' on Saturday as they continue their trip in Phoenix. The Suns are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games. Their offense remains a bit of a mess with Devin Booker still sounding like he's a game or two away from returning. Note that Phoenix has been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to give up way too many scoring opportunities. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 16 straight games. The Celtics figure to take advantage. Despite being held to just 39 and 41 made field goals in the first two games of their current road trip, they've averaged 43 made field goals on 90 field goal attempts per game on the road this season. Note that Boston is a long-term 54-28 ATS in its last 82 games following consecutive losses by six points or less, as is the case here, including a 4-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Phoenix is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Boston (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Georgia Tech +8.5 v. Virginia | Top | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia at 8 pm et on Saturday. This is quite simply a case of two teams heading in opposite directions as Georgia Tech comes in having won four of its last five games SU and five of its last six ATS while Virginia has dropped the cash in five of its last six contests, winning outright only twice over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets faced the Cavaliers at their best back in mid-January as Virginia was in the midst of an eight-game winning streak. Meanwhile, that loss against Virginia marked the first of three straight defeats and part of a 2-12 stretch overall. Note that Georgia Tech is 52-47 ATS in its last 99 games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Yellow Jackets are also a long-term 97-80 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more, as is the case here, including a 5-1 ATS record in that spot this season. Virginia is a woeful 8-25 ATS in its last 33 contests following a loss by 20 points or more in-conference. Take Georgia Tech (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Flyers v. Lightning -135 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Flyers are coming off a 2-1 road win over the Panthers on Thursday while the Lightning dropped a 6-3 decision at home against the Flames. I look for the Bolts to bounce back on Saturday as they try to stay in the mix in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Tampa Bay travelled to Philadelphia and dropped a 6-2 decision on February 27th. That was a revenge game for the Flyers after the Lightning skated to a 6-3 win in Philly in January. Here, the shoe is on the other foot and we'll note that Tampa Bay is 14-8 (+3.6 net games) in its last 22 games when seeking revenge for a road loss by four goals or more including a 4-1 (+3.4 net games) mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Flyers are just 13-29 (-14.4 net games) in their last 42 games after allowing one goal or less in their previous contest and 1-6 (-5 net games) in their last seven games after holding three straight opponents to two goals or less, as is the case here. Finally, we'll note that Philadelphia hasn't won consecutive games in this series since back in 2017. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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03-08-24 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts UNDER 153.5 | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Friday. I think 'over' bettors may be trying to fit a square peg into a round hole in this particular matchup on Friday. While both teams have struggled defensively all season long, I'm not sure either team is capable of taking advantage offensively. South Dakota has drawn every bit of efficiency out of its offense down the stretch, connecting on 27 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games but it is playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games. It runs into an Oral Roberts squad that did play some of its best defensive basketball of the season down the stretch, limiting four of its last five foes to 26 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Golden Eagles allowed an opponent to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. In two regular season meetings we saw both teams hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts in both matchups yet those two games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is 26-20 in South Dakota's last 46 tournament games. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 43-32 in Oral Roberts last 75 tournament contests including a 6-2 mark over the last three seasons. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-13 ATS in the Golden Eagles last 41 games following an ATS loss, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-08-24 | Western Illinois v. Arkansas-Little Rock -5.5 | Top | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas-Little Rock minus the points over Western Illinois at 8 pm et on Friday. Western Illinois enters this game on the heels of four straight wins but I think it's going to be in tough against Little Rock, which has reeled off nine straight victories and checks in 9-1 ATS over its last 10 contests. The problem Western Illinois is facing here is that it has allowed five straight opponents to get off at least 63 field goal attempts. Little Rock couldn't be any hotter offensively having connected on 28 or more field goals in five straight games and should welcome the up-tempo nature of this contest, ranking inside the top-100 in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Defensively, Little Rock has been locked in lately, holding four of its last five opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the Trojans have limited an incredible 13 of their last 14 opponents to 25 or fewer successful field goal attempts. The Bulldogs are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games following a win by three points or less over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 15-11 ATS in their last 26 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite. Take Arkansas-Little Rock (10*). |
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03-08-24 | Magic v. Knicks +1 | Top | 74-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Everyone is down on the Knicks right now. Perhaps rightfully so as they've lost eight of their last 11 games and could be without Jalen Brunson again on Friday as he nurses a knee injury. The Magic have to feel pretty good about themselves as they ride a five-game winning streak and are already off to a perfect 2-0 start on their current road trip. They're playing with a rather small margin for error, however, noting that they've gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games and 88 or fewer in 16 of their last 17 contests. The Knicks can apply some defensive pressure here, noting they've held 14 of their last 16 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Offensively, New York is struggling, however it did get off a whopping 99 field goal attempts against Atlanta two nights ago. The shots simply weren't falling. Note that the Knicks have lost four straight meetings in this series and that's notable as the Magic haven't defeated them in five straight matchups since recording a six-game winning streak from 2009-2011. Orlando is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 road games with the line set between +3 and -3, which is likely to be the case here, including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Magic are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests following a win over a division opponent. Following consecutive wins over divisional foes they've gone 0-2 ATS over the last three campaigns. Additionally, they're 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games following three consecutive double-digit victories including an 0-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 21-17 ATS in their last 38 home games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-2 ATS mark this season. They're also 27-20 ATS in their last 47 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 5-3 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). |
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03-07-24 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 231.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games while the Mavericks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold as these non-conference foes match up on Thursday in Dallas. Miami has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 42 made field goals or less. In fact, the Heat have limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 successful field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Heat have connected on at least 46 field goals just twice since December 6th. They've gone eight straight games without hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. We know what the Mavs are all about and that's offense. With that said, they've made good on 45 of fewer field goals in three straight and five of their last seven contests. On the flip side, Dallas has struggled defensively this season. However, it has generally bounced back following exceptionally poor performances and that's the situation it is in on Thursday after allowing Indiana to make good on 50 field goals last time out. On five previous occasions this season, the Mavs have yielded at least 50 made field goals and in their next contest they've held the opposition to an average of just 43.6 with the 'under' going 3-2. Note that the 'under' is 30-21 in the Heat's last 51 road games with the total set at 220 points or higher and 19-14 in their last 33 contests following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 65-54 with the Mavs playing at home and 9-7 in their last 16 contests after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-07-24 | Niagara -7 v. Siena | Top | 66-59 | Push | 0 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Siena at 7 pm et on Thursday. This is undoubtedly a game Niagara has had circled on its calendar since dropping a wild 93-88 decision at home against Siena back on January 15th. That was about as strange of a game as they come as the Saints connected on just four three-pointers but shot 62.5% from the field and knocked down a whopping 31 free throws. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here, or anything close. Note that Siena has been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 12 straight games. On the flip side, the Saints have allowed four straight opponents to connect on at least 27 field goals. Niagara has been struggling, dropping three straight games all in a favorite role. Note that the Purple Eagles are 21-11 ATS in their last 32 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. They're also 35-24 ATS in their last 59 contests following three straight ATS losses including a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Siena is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 games following consecutive ATS victories including an 0-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Saints are also 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games following a road defeat in which they scored fewer than 60 points. Take Niagara (10*). |
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03-06-24 | Kings +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings are coming off a 113-109 loss at home against the surging Bulls on Monday. I look for them to bounce back against the Lakers on Wednesday. Los Angeles delivered an impressive 116-104 victory over the Thunder on Monday. Keep in mind, the Lakers caught the Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back. What I like about the Kings is their ability to limit their opponents' scoring opportunities. Sacramento has held five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of its last 16 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the season it has held opponents to an average of 87 field goal attempts per contest on the road. The Lakers have quite simply been shooting the lights out lately but I don't believe that is sustainable. On the flip side, Los Angeles continues to give up a boatload of scoring chances, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine and 15 of their last 17 contests. Note that the Kings are 36-18 ATS in their last 54 games following a home loss and 25-16 ATS in their last 41 contests following an upset loss. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 24-29 ATS in their last 53 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, and 25-28 ATS in their last 53 contests as a home favorite of six points or less. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-06-24 | Boston College v. Miami-FL OVER 151.5 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Miami at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Miami has inexplicably been idle since a week ago Monday, when it dropped a 75-71 decision on the road against North Carolina - its seventh straight defeat. Boston College enters on the heels of four straight losses but it has been making 'over' bettors happy with each of its last six contests sailing 'over' the total. I look for more of the same on Wednesday. While the Miami offense has struggled lately, it does continue to push the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games. The Hurricanes rank 112th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom this season. Going up against Boston College's matador-like defense should serve Miami well in this spot. The Eagles have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 27 field goals. Boston College ranks 173rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, not good for a Power-5 program. On the flip side, the Eagles have been fairly consistent offensively, making good on 25 or more field goals in five of their last six games with a low-water mark of 24 made field goals over their last nine contests. Miami, like Boston College, has struggled defensively allowing its last four opponents to connect on 28, 28, 30 and 27 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 19-12 in Boston College's last 31 games as a road underdog and 16-6 in its last 22 contests when coming off a game that totalled 155 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-15 in Miami's last 42 games as a home favorite and 7-5 in its last 12 contests following a road loss in-conference. Take the over (10*). |
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03-05-24 | Oilers -119 v. Bruins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Boston at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The schedule makers did the Oilers a favor in this rematch of an overtime thriller played in Edmonton two weeks ago. While the Oilers were idle on Monday giving them ample time to settle in in Boston, the Bruins were involved in a division game in Toronto, securing a 4-1 victory over the Maple Leafs. Edmonton enters this game red hot following four straight victories and it should bring confidence to the table playing in Beantown where it has won three straight meetings going back to January of 2020. In fact, the road team has prevailed in seven straight matchups in this series. Note that the Oilers are 28-16 (+8.5 net games) in their last 44 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent including a 7-3 (+2.6 net games) mark in that situation this season. Better still, Edmonton is an incredible 39-7 (+28.2 net games) in its last 46 contests after allowing one goal or less in its previous game, as is the case here, including a 14-3 (+8.7 net games) record this season. The Bruins haven't been the same dominant home team they were last season, already having lost 12 games at TD Garden. This is just the first game of a four-game homestand and I look for them to struggle in this three-in-four situation. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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03-04-24 | Blackhawks v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The most recent matchup between these two teams last week in Chicago fizzled as the Avalanche skated to an easy 5-0 victory. While most are expecting more of the same in this quick rematch, I expect the Blackhawks to put up more of a fight. That should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. While the Chicago offense has been putrid lately, it's worth noting that it's current streak of five straight games scoring two goals or less marks its longest such streak this season. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 2-0 the two previous times it has come off five straight games scoring two goals or less this season. Additionally, the 'over' is 11-8 in Chicago's last 19 games when seeking revenge for a shutout loss against an opponent. Meanwhile the Avs will be in a foul mood after dropping a 5-1 decision in Nashville on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is 17-10 in their last 27 contests after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. The 'over' is also 12-3 in their last 15 games following a road loss against a division opponent. The Blackhawks have been as generous as they come on the road this season, allowing a whopping 4.1 goals per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-04-24 | Texas v. Baylor -6.5 | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Monday. Baylor continues to fly under the radar as a true national title contender perhaps overshadowed in a year where an expanded Big 12 boasts so many elite teams. The Bears enter this game off a dominant victory over Kansas on Saturday. They check in ranked 14th in the country according to KenPom with a unique mix of efficient but slow offense, ranking top-five in adjusted offensive efficiency but 301st in adjusted tempo. I expect that mix to frustrate Texas on Monday as the Bears look to avenge an earlier 75-73 loss against the Longhorns. Texas is in a log-jam in the middle of the Big 12 standings but it comes in satisfied following consecutive blowout wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Note that the Longhorns are just 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog. They're 6-10 ATS in their last 16 contests following a double-digit win in-conference including a 1-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Additionally, Texas is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 contests following consecutive victories including a 1-8 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Baylor checks in 27-20 ATS in its last 47 games when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Bears are a solid positive momentum play having gone 20-16 ATS in their last 36 contests after scoring 80 points or more and 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games after an ATS victory (15-12 ATS in their last 27 after consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here). Take Baylor (10*). |
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03-02-24 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 228.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. |
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03-02-24 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blackhawks offense has been putrid lately, scoring a grand total of just five goals over its last four games. A home date with the Blue Jackets might be just what it needs to get kick-started though, noting that Columbus has allowed 3.8 goals per game on the road this season and four goals or more in 13 of its last 19 games overall. The Blue Jackets have produced only three goals over their last two contests but those came against two of the league's best teams in the Rangers and Hurricanes. Here, they'll face a Blackhawks squad that has allowed at least three goals in five straight and eight of its last nine games. Interestingly, Columbus has been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.0 goals per contest. This will be the second meeting between these two teams this season after Columbus skated to a lopsided 7-3 victory at home back in November. Note that the 'over' is 19-10 in the Blue Jackets last 29 games following consecutive losses by two goals or more against division opponents, as is the case here, including an 'over' result the only time that situation has presented itself over the last three seasons. Perhaps more notable, the 'over' is 50-29 in the Jackets last 79 contests following consecutive losses including a 15-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-1 in the Blackhawks last seven games following a shutout loss at home including a 1-0 record in that spot this season. The 'over' is also 6-3 in Chicago's last nine games following a loss by five goals or more including a 2-1 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-02-24 | NC State v. North Carolina OVER 153.5 | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina State and North Carolina at 4 pm et on Saturday. Including the first meeting this season we've now seen three straight matchups in this rivalry stay 'under' the total. Going back to the turn of the century we've seen a four-game 'under' streak in this series only once - that coming back in 2017. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair on Saturday. The Wolfpack were not playing well offensively the last time these two teams matched up. In fact, N.C. State was mired in a shooting slump that saw it connect on fewer than 20 field goals in two of three games. It's a much different story this time around. N.C. State has connected on 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. There's reason to believe the Wolfpack will be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this contest as North Carolina has allowed seven of its last eight foes to hoist up more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Wolfpack have been getting boat raced defensively in recent weeks. They've allowed 29, 27, 30, 25 and 37 made field goals over their last five contests. North Carolina checks in top-25 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 38th in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. Note that the 'over' is 6-1 in N.C. State's last seven games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 30-23 in the Wolfpack's last 53 contests following an ATS defeat. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 62-47 in North Carolina's last 109 games following a win by six points or less including a 5-3 record in that situation over the last three seasons. The 'over' is also 26-20 in the Tar Heels last 46 games following an ATS loss including a 6-4 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-02-24 | Wyoming v. Colorado State -15 | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado State minus the points over Wyoming at 4 pm et on Saturday. To illustrate just how tough the Mountain West Conference is this season look no further than the fact that a team as good as Colorado State (ranked 33rd in the country according to KenPom) sits in seventh place with an even 8-8 record. The Rams enter this contest on the heels of three straight losses but I look for them to 'get right' against the Cowboys. This is a revenge game for Colorado State after it dropped a 79-76 decision on the road back on January 27th. That game saw a wide disparity at the free throw line in favor of Wyoming as it knocked down twice as many free throws as Colorado State (20-10). The script should flip in Saturday's rematch, noting that the Rams have permitted an average of just 15 trips to the charity stripe at home this season. Colorado State ranks 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and checks in having held eight straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, limiting half of those foes to 22 or less. Offensively, the Rams haven't been setting the world on fire and part of that is by design as they sit 271st in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). With that said, I see this as a breakout spot against a bad Wyoming defense that has allowed 26 or more made field goals in five of its last six and 14 of its last 16 games overall. The Cowboys rank 248th in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cowboys are just 18-27 ATS in their last 45 games following an ATS loss including a 5-10 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Rams are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 5-2 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Colorado State (10*). |
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03-01-24 | Wizards v. Clippers -15 | Top | 115-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Washington at 10:40 pm et on Friday. This sets up as a smash spot for the reeling Clippers who enter this game losers of two straight and five of their last seven games overall. Los Angeles has faced a brutal stretch of opponents lately, going up against the Timberwolves, Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies, Kings and Lakers over its last six contests. Only the date with Memphis offered any sort of reprieve and the Clippers did take advantage and win that game (albeit failing to cover the spread). Here, the Clips catch the Wizards off an 'empty the tank' overtime loss against the Lakers last night. Yes, last night's numbers were helped along by overtime but the Wizards have now allowed four of their last six opponents to make good on at least 50 field goals. They've yielded at least 47 made field goals in seven of their last nine contests. For the Clips, I believe their problems are fixable, at least in the short-term. They suffered a major collapse in the fourth quarter against the rival Lakers two nights ago, blowing a 21-point lead. They have now held each of their last four opponents to 91 or fewer field goal attempts which is a stride in the right direction after the way they had been playing previously. The Lakers quite simply went off offensively in the fourth quarter two nights ago. I don't expect the Wizards to replicate that performance here, noting that they average just 43 made field goals per contest on the road this season while the Clippers have held the opposition to an average of 41 successful field goal attempts per game at home. The Wiz are just 46-53 ATS in their last 109 games following an ATS victory including a 12-16 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Clips are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 contests following consecutive upset losses at home, as is the case here. That situation has come up just once in the last three seasons and Los Angeles did cover the spread in its next game on that occasion as well. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-01-24 | Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 137.5 | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Nevada at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Fresno State's most recent game went 'over' the total but that was only thanks to overtime. The Bulldogs haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' since a five-game streak from January 16th to 30th. Note that they held an up-tempo Utah State team to just 47 field goal attempts in regulation time last time out. In fact, they've limited three of their last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts. While the Aggies did get their fair share of opportunities at the free throw line in Wednesday's contest, Fresno State is actually allowing just 16 free throw attempts per game this season so it's not really a recurring theme. While the Bulldogs did get loose a bit offensively against Utah State, it faces a tougher challenge on Friday with Nevada ranked 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 245th in adjusted tempo this season (both according to KenPom). The Wolf Pack have held seven of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Fresno State has knocked down just 23 field goals per game on the road this season. As I mentioned, Nevada's preferred pace is slow, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since February 2nd against a matador-like defense in San Jose State. The 'under' is 10-8 in Fresno State's last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Nevada's last 41 contests following an 'over' result including a 7-3 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 50-39 in Nevada's last 89 games after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-24 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 | Top | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Southern Miss at 8:30 pm et on Friday. Louisiana-Lafayette has inexplicably gone in the tank dropping four straight games both SU and ATS entering Friday's regular season finale against Southern Miss. Included in that four-game slide was a stunning 82-71 loss at Southern Miss last Saturday. I look for the Ragin' Cajuns to break out of their funk and exact some swift revenge on their home floor on Friday. The Golden Eagles have done well to hang onto sixth place in the Sun Belt Conference standings - tied with the Ragin' Cajuns, in fact. They've certainly had some good fortune along the way. Note that KenPom has them ranked 224th nationally but 47th in terms of its 'luck rating' metric. I simply feel we'll see Southern Miss' defense get overwhelmed in this particular spot. Note that the Eagles have allowed 25 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games with six of their last nine foes hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts. That should be music to the ears of the Ragin' Cajuns shooters, noting that Louisiana-Lafayette is desperate for a breakout and plays fast having gotten off 64 or more field goal attempts in four of its last five contests. Defensively, the Ragin' Cajuns have admittedly been inconsistent lately but have limited four of their last six opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. They rank a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom despite playing fast, checking in 118th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Note that Southern Miss is 0-9 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points over the last three seasons including an 0-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Louisiana-Lafayette is 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests as a home favorite including a 6-4 ATS record this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). |
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02-28-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 235.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Opponents are walking all over the Lakers right now, getting off 93 or more field goal attempts in each of their last five and 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Clippers should be salivating at the opportunity for an offensive breakout here after being held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. Paul George won't be in the lineup for the Clips on Wednesday but I still expect them to thrive offensively against a Lakers squad that has been lit up for 44 or more made field goals in 12 of its last 15 games. On the flip side, the Lakers have connected on more than 40 field goals in eight straight games and 47 or more in five of those contests. The Clippers have surprisingly been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing four straight and 12 of their last 16 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a crisp 15-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 32-25 in the Clippers last 57 contests following an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-24 | Blues v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Edmonton at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Blues are reeling right now, losers of four of their last five games as they try to hang on in the Western Conference playoff race. They gave up three first period goals before settling down and eventually dropping a 4-2 decision in Winnipeg last night. Note that scoring has been a problem for the Blues on the road this season where they average just 2.6 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Oilers have been relatively stingy at home where they've held the opposition to just 2.9 goals per contest. Note that the 'under' is 21-18 in St. Louis' last 39 games following a loss against a division opponent including an incredible 9-2 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 15-13 with the Blues coming off consecutive losses by two goals or more, as is the case here, including a 6-1 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 24-15 in the Oilers last 39 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored five goals or more, which is the situation there after the Blues secured a 6-3 victory over them back on February 15th. That situation has cashed at a 9-5 clip this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-24 | Nevada v. Colorado State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and Colorado State at 11:30 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a considerably higher posted total the last time these two teams met on January 24th. That game ultimately stayed 'under' that number but did go higher than the total we're working with on Tuesday. I still don't feel the oddsmakers have made enough of an adjustment. Nevada saw its last game go 'over' the total thanks to an offensive outburst against a miserable San Jose State defense. Note that the Wolf Pack are locked-in defensively right now having held three straight and five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Colorado State doesn't figure to push the pace on Nevada, noting that the Rams rank 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Speaking of being locked-in defensively, the Rams have climbed into the top-25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) thanks to a stretch that has seen them limit seven straight foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. Nevada checks in just 241st in adjusted tempo and has hoisted up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight contests, reaching 52 or less in half of those games. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Nevada's last seven games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points including a 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 9-5 in the Wolf Pack's last 14 contests following a double-digit win over a conference foe including a 5-1 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-10 in Colorado State's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's, as is the case here at the time of writing. The Rams have also seen the 'under' go 14-5 in their last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more including a 5-2 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-24 | Blues v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Blues got drilled 6-1 by the Red Wings in Detroit on Saturday. They've had a couple of days off to lick their wounds and regroup and I look for them to come up with a much better defensive effort on Tuesday in Winnipeg. Note that the 'under' is 20-17 in St. Louis' last 37 games following a road loss by three goals or more including a 10-3 mark in that situation this season. Winnipeg secured a 4-3 overtime win over Arizona on Sunday. The 'under' is 12-6 in the Jets last 18 contests following an overtime victory including a 2-1 record in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 23-7 in Winnipeg's last 30 games after scoring three goals or more in five straight contests, as is the case here, including a perfect 6-0 mark in that situation over the last three seasons. While the 'over' did cash in the most recent matchup between these two teams, we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since April of 2019. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-24 | 76ers +12.5 v. Celtics | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers got crushed by the Bucks in front of a national audience on Sunday afternoon as their struggles without Joel Embiid continued. I do think there's a path for Philadelphia to stay competitive in Boston on Tuesday, however. The 76ers do have the ability to effectively shorten proceedings having held three straight opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and 10 of their last 14 foes to 87 or less. The Celtics may actually be willing partners here noting that they've limited three of their last four opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite Philadelphia's recent struggles it has held six of its last seven opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. There's certainly plenty of room for improvement for the Sixers offense after they connected on just 36-of-97 field goal attempts in a failed comeback against Milwaukee on Sunday. Note that Philadelphia has hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of its last 11 contests so it is at least finding a way to generate plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that Philadelphia has dropped the last two matchups in this series but has gone 22-12 ATS in its last 34 games playing with double-revenge. The Sixers are also 21-17 ATS in their last 38 contests after being held to 100 points or less in their previous game including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 contests following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, including a 1-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Celtics are also just 26-28 ATS in their last 54 games following eight straight victories including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Kings v. Oilers -146 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Oilers are reeling on the heels of three straight losses and it all started with that wild 6-5 overtime loss at home against the Bruins last week. Note that Edmonton is in the fourth game of its five-game homestand so it needs to salvage something beginning with this division game on Monday. This will be a quick revenge spot for the Oilers after they dropped a 4-0 decision in Los Angeles on February 10th. Note that Edmonton hasn't lost consecutive meetings with Los Angeles since November of 2022 and January of 2023. It hasn't dropped consecutive matchups over the last 10 games in this series. The Kings barely escaped with a shootout victory over the lowly Ducks, at home no less, on Saturday. They've taken advantage of a favorable schedule lately to be sure, turning things around after a brutal stretch in December and January. Note that the Kings are a long-term 68-111 when playing for the eighth time in 14 days, as is the case here, including a 1-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Oilers are 31-18 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 9-6 record in that spot this season. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Pistons v. Knicks UNDER 224 | Top | 111-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last five games while the Knicks ride a two-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Both teams are coming off losses on Saturday with Detroit falling on a last-second shot against Orlando and New York suffering a blowout loss at the hands of Boston. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Monday at the Garden. Detroit has shot about as well as you could expect in two games since the All-Star break, making good on 47 and 43 field goals in losses against the Pacers and Magic. It still scored 'only' 115 and 109 points in those two contests. Note that the Pistons haven't produced 109 or more points in three straight games since January 28th to February 2nd. On the flip side, Detroit has limited five straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Knicks don't figure to test that streak, noting that they've hoisted up just 84, 79 and 82 field goal attempts in their last three contests. In fact, they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 22 of their last 28 games. On the flip side, the Knicks have held an incredible eight straight opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. While the opposition has shot well against New York in recent weeks, I believe Detroit is better-suited for volume-shooting success but I don't see it accomplishing that against the slow-paced Knicks on Monday. Note that the 'under' is 26-20 in the Pistons last 46 games following five straight 'under' results and 10-7 in their last 17 contests after suffering a loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 40-24 in New York's last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results including a 14-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-22 in the Knicks last 47 contests following a double-digit loss including a 5-4 record in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Miami-FL +14 v. North Carolina | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. Miami has now lost six straight games to fall all the way to 12th in the ACC standings. With games left against Boston College and Florida State, the Hurricanes can still move up two or three spots in advance of the ACC Tournament but they need to turn things around now. This is undoubtedly a game the Canes have had circled on their schedule as they let the Tar Heels off the hook in a narrow three-point loss against them back on February 10th. Miami connected on just six three-point attempts in that game and got to the free throw line only 13 times (making good on 10 of those attempts) in the loss. Since then it's been all downhill but I do think we'll see Miami rise to the occasion here. North Carolina checks in off a 54-44 victory over Virginia on Saturday. The Cavaliers quite simply couldn't take advantage of their scoring opportunities in that game, making good on only 16-of-58 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the Tar Heels had allowed at least 27 made field goals in five straight games prior to that contest. While North Carolina has yielded 30 or more made field goals twice in its last six games, Miami has done so just once in its last 12 contests (that happened on Saturday against Georgia Tech). Currently pacing the ACC by a game, the Tar Heels undoubtedly have their sights set on their regular season finale - a showdown with Duke on March 9th that might just decide who goes into the ACC Tournament as the number one seed. Note that the underdog has won four straight games ATS in this series. Despite their struggles this season, the Canes remain a long-term 123-79 ATS as a road underdog including a 12-9 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. They're also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, North Carolina is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. The Tar Heels are also just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite including a 3-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-25-24 | Bucks v. 76ers +4.5 | Top | 119-98 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks are coming off a much-needed upset win in Minnesota on Friday as they snapped their two-game losing streak. Milwaukee is still just 4-7 SU and ATS over its last 11 games. It figures to be hard-pressed to cover many spreads as a favorite when it has been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in a staggering eight straight games. Over that stretch, the Bucks were held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts on five different occasions. On the flip side, they've allowed six of their last eight foes to connect on at least 43 field goals. They were fortunate that the Timberwolves didn't take advantage of their opportunities on Friday as they did hoist up 98 field goal attempts. Philadelphia brought its two-game losing streak to a halt with a 104-97 win over the Cavaliers on Friday. The 76ers have now delivered the cash in three of their last five games ATS. They haven't exactly been setting the world on fire offensively either, but they're not the ones laying points in this spot. Note that Philadelphia has connected on 40 or more field goals in nine of its last 10 contests. Defensively, the 76ers have shown improvement lately, limiting three straight and six of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals including just 38 and 34 over their last two contests. The Bucks check in just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Flames v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Oilers have dropped consecutive games following last night's 4-2 defeat at the hands of the Wild on home ice. I expect them to bounce back on Saturday but the rival Flames certainly won't make it easy for them. Calgary averages a respectable 3.2 goals per game on the road this season which is actually higher than its season scoring average at home. It's been feast-or-famine for the Flames offense lately as they've scored three goals or more in six of their last eight games but were shut out in the other two. I don't anticipate the Oilers shutting them down completely here (Edmonton has allowed three goals or more in nine straight contests). Note that the 'over' is 27-13 in the Flames last 40 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less, as is the case here, including a 7-3 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 9-6 in Calgary's last 15 games following an overtime win including a perfect 3-0 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 30-25 in the Oilers last 55 games following a loss by two goals or more including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 14-9 in their last 23 contests played on the second of back-to-back nights including a 2-1 record this season. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -8 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Brooklyn at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Timberwolves dropped a 112-107 home loss against the Bucks last night. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they host the reeling Nets. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Nets check in having made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last five games. They've mustered up just 79, 81 and 80 field goal attempts over their last three contests. Despite the loss last night, the T'Wolves continued to play well defensively. They've limited five straight and nine of their last 10 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, only one of their last 19 opponents has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts. Offensively, Minnesota has been far more consistent than Brooklyn, knocking down 46 or more field goals in three of its last five games and 40 or more in 18 of its last 23 contests. Brooklyn hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team this season, going just 11-16 ATS in 27 games following an ATS loss including a 6-9 ATS mark following consecutive ATS defeats. The Nets are also just 23-29 ATS in their last 52 contests when seeking revenge for home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 5-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 17-12 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss by six points or less including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Grambling State v. Southern UNDER 133 | Top | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
SWAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Southern at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams met back on January 20th and combined to score 141 points in a double-digit Grambling victory. I expect a lower-scoring affair in Saturday's rematch. Note that Grambling has quietly held 11 of its last 13 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. The Tigers rank 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Southern has gotten off 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. The Jaguars have made good on 23 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, they've arguably been even better than the Tigers defensively in recent weeks. Southern has limited an incredible nine straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back 13 games to find the last time a Southern opponent hoisted up more than 53 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in Grambling's last 12 road games with the total set between 130 and 139.5 points including a perfect 4-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-10 in Southern's last 25 home games including a perfect 7-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-24 | Bucks v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is undoubtedly a game the Bucks have had circled on their calendar since getting throttled 129-105 on their home floor on February 8th. The Timberwolves shot the lights out in that game but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here. While the Bucks have struggled to find the win column lately, they've continued to do a good job of limiting opposing offenses, holding six of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Minnesota isn't a team that's going to push the pace on them, noting the T'Wolves have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 18 games. On the flip side, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that was as locked-in defensively as the T'Wolves prior to the All-Star break. They enter this game having limited four straight and an incredible 19 of their last 25 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In fact, Minnesota is allowing just 37 made field goals per contest at home this season. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series but we haven't seen three straight 'over' results since way back in 2006. The 'under' is 28-14 in Milwaukee's last 42 games as a road underdog and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-19 in the T'Wolves last 51 home contests with the total set between 220 and 229.5 and 7-3 in their last 10 games played on three or more days' rest. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +9.5 | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about their chances as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday night in Memphis. Los Angeles is struggling defensively right now having allowed six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to make good on at least 45 field goals. The Clippers have had no success slowing the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven contests. The Grizzlies, despite being undermanned, did show some signs of life offensively prior to the All-Star break, knocking down more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. On the flip side they also held each of their last three opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Clippers have covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series but haven't won three games in a row ATS over the Grizzlies since back in 2018. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 40-54 ATS in its last 94 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 6-8 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Clips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Memphis on the other hand is 23-15 ATS in its last 38 games as a home underdog and 29-14 ATS in its last 43 contests when playing with double-revenge. Take Memphis (10*). |
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02-22-24 | Washington State v. Arizona UNDER 151 | Top | 77-74 | Push | 0 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Arizona at 11 pm et on Thursday. Washington State has broken into the top-25 for the first time in an eternity and now it draws a difficult road test against a revenge-minded Arizona squad in Tucson on Thursday. The first meeting between these teams ended 73-70 in favor of the Cougars, cruising 'under' the total. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series. Washington State enters this game locked-in defensively having held four straight and five of its last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Note that it limited Arizona to just 25 made field goals despite yielding 72 field goal attempts back on January 13th. The Wildcats are on a tear offensively but they've also faced mostly up-tempo opponents over the last few weeks. Note that Washington State ranks 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will almost certainly look to slow this game down and effectively shorten proceedings as a double-digit underdog on Thursday. While Arizona is known for its offensive prowess, it can play some defense as well, checking in ranked 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Wildcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Washington State has made good on 25 or fewer field goals in three of its last four contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 41-19 with the Cougars coming off consecutive wins by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 18-12 in their last 30 games as an underdog including a 5-2 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-7 in Arizona's last 16 games following three straight 'over' results, including 2-0 in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-5 in the Wildcats last 15 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including 1-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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